Account Information
Name:
ImJustKen
Pseudonym:
Ample-Instance
Created:
2022-01-19 11:45:10
Last Activity:
20 minutes ago
Tier:
Silver ยท Verified
X:
@Domahhhh
profile-image-82662-8ddbc8e8-0500-44b7-bb13-c0b32a40a45d.jpg
Total Profit
$3,214,080
Blockchain trace (7)
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344 seed ImJustKen |
recipient, seed, sender, user | Polygon | USDC.e | โ | 10 |
| 0x182a098bda4b4dbf25ff1943c84142a699c05085 seed ImJustKen |
seed | โ | โ | โ | 0 |
| 0xba95e6ca38acfe66902e9d60daba52482d4127d0 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | โ | 3 |
| 0x119f5d90a81e87f237883360cef5924bc79a63bc | recipient | Polygon | USDC | โ | 2 |
| 0x86daa6a8a81296c1584e28e58f8dc727ccf96a7f | recipient | Polygon | USDC.e | โ | 2 |
| 0xc92baaf13e418b359d474a5de05b2cae47a6fb2b | recipient | Polygon | USDC, USDC.e | โ | 2 |
| 0x0bfd7ae78ed2b89f7e7d85938e9317b5d494047b GummiMummi |
recipient | Polygon | USDC | โ | 1 |
Stats
Portfolio value
$741,998.85
Markets traded
9,834
Trades
9,763
Largest win
$1,403,042.15
Profile views
343,918
Join date
2022-01-19 11:45:10
All-time rank
44
All-time PnL
$3,214,080.13
All-time volume
$499,673,184.47
All-time profit
$3,284,931.15
Lifetime volume
$493,590,281.64
PnL series latest
$3,284,957.00
PnL series start
$3,251,940.80
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$46,966.38
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1931192.194787 | $1,403,042.15 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 1941775.854479 | $768,633.76 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Yes | 948068.398613 | $478,541.11 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | 1029058.789332 | $-301,419.43 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | No | 1432503.430429 | $-251,667.50 |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | No | 653254.916439 | $-204,488.41 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 93516.5159 | $0.68 | $0.94 | $88,373.11 | $25,228.84 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 178747.7419 | $0.66 | $0.47 | $84,905.18 | $-33,850.53 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 73939.1645 | $0.80 | $0.85 | $63,217.99 | $3,990.64 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 129664.2379 | $0.64 | $0.48 | $62,887.16 | $-19,822.55 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 46119.9217 | $0.75 | $0.79 | $36,411.68 | $1,965.67 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1931192.194787 | $1,403,042.15 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 1941775.854479 | $768,633.76 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Yes | 948068.398613 | $478,541.11 |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3523868.687851 | $369,356.38 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3077711.727315 | $319,825.52 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 minutes ago | TRADE | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 31.84 | $26.11 |
| 20 minutes ago | TRADE | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 46.08 | $37.79 |
| 20 minutes ago | TRADE | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 46.08 | $37.79 |
| 21 minutes ago | TRADE | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 7.277776 | $5.97 |
| 21 minutes ago | TRADE | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 963.25 | $789.87 |
Recent trades (9763)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 minutes ago | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 31.84 |
| 20 minutes ago | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 46.08 |
| 20 minutes ago | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 46.08 |
| 21 minutes ago | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 7.277776 |
| 21 minutes ago | BUY | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | $0.82 | 963.25 |
Comments
2023-09-27 14:07:49
what up playa
2023-10-12 12:35:20
Nice bet fam! For now at least.
2023-10-21 14:03:16
Intercepting rockets is a defensive action. It's like saying Iron Dome is a "kinetic strike" on Hamas lol.
2023-10-21 14:05:09
Meant to add a second sentence and it posted accidentally...the market is clearly about the US taking an offensive action. Either with troops on the ground (including special forces) or some sort of air strike. The US usage of the word "kinetic strike" is frequently used for attacks on terrorists. So if we bombed Hamas, it would probably be labeled a kinetic strike.
2023-10-21 21:47:58
My post is hidden in a reply, but just pointing out that I think the rules intend for this market to be about an offensive use of force. "Kinetic attack" has been the US description of strikes on terrorists. A defensive interception of missiles does not fall under this heading IMHO, and seems to not at all be what this market is about. It would be like describing "Iron Dome" as a weapon, when it's purely defensive in nature..
2023-10-23 03:21:58
One side to the other? How do you know where the Houthi rockets were going? They're at war with the Saudis, who are to their north.
2023-10-23 03:23:07
Delta operators in theater? Lol, what theater? Are they in combat operations? Because that is what the market says.
2023-10-23 22:43:31
Sad that there are so many people who bet on Hamas made-up propaganda that Israel bombed some random parking lot. And then ignored the video evidence showing the failed Gazan missile falling onto said parking lot.
2023-10-26 21:29:51
I'd lose a lot of money if he's dead....hopefully he is dead.
2023-10-27 08:52:54
Nailbiter!
2023-10-27 23:42:43
Wow people are paying 99c on YES for a terrorist group where the leaders are all dead or hiding in tunnels as being in control of Gaza, when they obviously cannot control anything in Gaza. Yikes. Might be winning a bet, but what an absolutely idiotic one.
2023-10-28 07:51:42
The no case is that Hamas barely has any control of Gaza right now, and Israel is quickly killing off all of their commanders. We'll see what happens from here, but it is possible to me that Israel has taken de facto control of Gaza from Hamas by the end date.
2023-10-28 07:53:26
Tbc, I think this is unlikely to resolve No right now, 10-15% and other people seem to think this is extremely unlikely, more like 1%. We'll see!
2023-10-28 11:55:09
The assumption here is that Hamas has control right now.
2023-10-29 09:26:11
Any "control" that Hamas still wields in Gaza is very quickly dissipating into nothingness. More evidence of total anarchy: "Gaza residents break into aid warehouses and take supplies - UNRWA Thousands of Gaza residents have broken into warehouses and distribution centres in the south and middle of the strip, taking flour and other basic supplies, the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) says."
2023-10-30 03:54:05
Dios a mio!
2023-10-30 10:36:00
Let's see here....its definitely not a kinetic strike (used to describe lethal bombings of human targets), and in the video you just posted, the US military (the market's source) says "we cannot be certain where the missiles were going."
2023-11-01 17:04:11
"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government" Here is their equivalent of a press secretary -- "Rashwan quoted President Abdel Fattah El Sisiโs affirmation during his contacts with world leaders that Egypt rejects the transfer of the Gazans to any area." Egypt considers them medical evacuees afaict. Anyone have the Egyptian govt specifically saying they've accepted refugees?
2023-11-01 19:16:22
Seems like we're coming at this from two very different perspectives. The Egyptian stance is no refugees, period. Given what Israel is doing to Gaza, it stands to reason that we would want to predict if Egypt softens that stance and takes in refugees. So far they have not, and I don't think them accepting evacuees for medical treatment should upend a market like this. It's not good imho.
2023-11-05 05:14:52
Nasrallah is way too much of a p-word to declare war on Israel, no offense
2023-11-05 17:34:44
Hezbollah steps back from all-out war on Israel over Gaza - for now -BBC
2023-11-05 17:34:56
Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah on Friday called for a ceasefire in Gaza while holding off on announcing any broader conflict with Israel, bringing relief to Lebanon where many were fearing the prospects of war. -Al Jazeera
2023-11-05 17:37:29
In High-Stakes Speech, Hezbollahโs Leader Stops Short of Call to Expand Hamas War -NYT
2023-11-05 17:38:08
Hassan Nasrallah, chief of the Lebanese militant group, said he didnโt plan on waging a large-scale attack now amid concern that war could spread. -WSJ
2023-11-05 17:39:49
Going to stop posting links now as I don't want to be added to any terrorist watchlists looking up stories on this doofus, but there's a few thousand more headlines to post about how he didn't declare war. He is a huge wimp and an idiot bully. He won't declare any war, dude.
2023-11-06 17:30:57
Huh? What is going on here? This strike ended a week ago.
2023-11-09 03:01:47
Does the MODERATOR count?
2023-11-09 04:44:58
Is anyone disputing? Do moderators count?
2023-11-09 12:30:24
The MCU has done it again! Another huge hit on their hands. Unstoppable.
2023-11-10 14:30:45
I'm really skeptical that the political wing of Hamas can deliver hostages in any negotiations, but I do own a ton of shares in case I'm wrong!
2023-11-13 01:45:22
Seems very borderline to me. Seems like it is yes on first blush, but Hamas allegedly stealing the fuel seems like nothing was actually delivered to Gaza? No gas was received by civilians allegedly, which is what the intent was here in creating this market. It's an edge case for sure, definitely not anticipated by the rules.
2023-11-13 02:10:37
Dr. Ashraf al-Qudra, a spokesman for Gazaโs health ministry, disputed those assertions. In an interview, he said that an offer had been made over the phone for 200 liters โ not 300 โ and that the head of Al-Shifa Hospital rejected the offer because it was not sufficient. No fuel was delivered, he said.
2023-11-13 04:33:49
Tried to dispute the scam resolution, but UMA site wouldn't load ๐
2023-11-16 02:15:07
[link removed]
2023-11-17 06:19:49
They're going to have to invent a ignore button just for Relay's continuous drunken meltdowns
2023-11-17 06:31:43
To lose your virginity?
2023-11-17 11:26:32
Don't bet on Hamas, kids
2023-11-20 16:04:06
HANG ON A SECOND, you mean to tell me that was a joke?
2023-11-20 22:51:33
OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-26 21:27:18
You posted more than everyone else combined times ten. Clown.
2023-11-26 21:36:16
Grub, I hate UMA and think they're borderline criminals. I rarely post there.
2023-11-27 06:52:46
I'd put him on par with yourself as far as "intellectuals" are concerned.
2023-11-30 00:20:22
Invasion imminent
2023-11-30 23:14:43
Highly doubt Rekt will list a slippage thing as an "exploit"
2023-12-01 03:27:03
Good thing we already have a story where they had a meeting 3 hours before the attack, with the top military leaders in the country, and decided to not do anything.
2023-12-03 12:48:17
As soon as the results are read this evening, tanks will roll into the essequibo.
2023-12-03 23:57:44
Sure
2023-12-04 03:35:22
Ah crap, I thought No would win
2023-12-05 02:40:32
Pretty sure yes is going to win this time around, but who knows. UMA is a hive of villainy.
2023-12-05 03:42:32
Guyana's brave military has survived the first 24 hours of the Venezuelan onslaught, I really hope they can hold on for another 27 days
2023-12-05 20:08:17
[link removed]
2023-12-06 00:02:13
Ominous. Will they be throwing this material at the Guyana military as they invade?
2023-12-06 23:57:38
Will be proposing yes again tomorrow
2023-12-07 00:02:59
Currently being reviewed by the UMA braintrust
2023-12-07 00:04:40
Please delete this, you already posted today.
2023-12-07 20:46:00
Good call. Nailed it.
2023-12-08 04:10:28
Lol
2023-12-13 16:05:55
Seems like that'd be a No to me. The other outstanding question is whether IVF counts, which I think is probably yes?
2023-12-15 16:02:37
So he just went on a huge 10-minute rant about Jewish people and compared himself to both Hitler and Jesus (in the same sentence).
2023-12-16 20:19:35
Lol, uh huh...
2023-12-18 12:43:49
Lol
2023-12-19 09:38:59
The conditions for the market were met by the NDAA bill, we're waiting for Biden to sign it
2023-12-19 10:33:20
Seems like the birds moved on
2023-12-20 05:00:48
I keep changing my mind between thinking YES is a lock, and YES is too high. Lol.
2023-12-21 01:11:44
Didn't know you still used the site.
2023-12-21 19:33:59
@gg6966 are you still learning the ropes?
2023-12-22 01:55:21
Thanks, Tim.
2023-12-22 02:22:13
Nice trading, Relay!
2023-12-22 02:31:42
My girlfriend lives in another town, you wouldn't know her
2023-12-22 02:46:11
He won $200 from me once, and talked about it for a solid 5 weeks.
2023-12-22 05:47:48
Seems like No to me
2023-12-22 12:38:17
Feel free to pop in discord if you want to ask any questions about making trades. On the homepage, in the bottom right is a link to the discord under "Join the Community"
2023-12-22 14:07:49
9 days left!
2023-12-23 00:09:13
Remember to post in the UMA discord if you have shares involved in the likely dispute
2023-12-23 00:26:30
Hopefully not, but you never know
2023-12-24 12:32:26
7 days left!
2023-12-24 17:20:20
Merriman, The market was proposed for yes and it's being disputed right now. Traders assess that yes is around 70 percent to win. My assessment is it's around 75% that yes wins.
2023-12-25 04:51:15
Stick to Bonkler, buddy
2023-12-29 05:24:50
Do people really expect Christmas music to win on January 6th?
2023-12-29 22:26:24
These markets, who doing it?
2023-12-30 17:47:00
Has to be a court, it'll probably happen tho. There's a lot of courts lol.
2023-12-31 15:07:03
Not sure I quite follow this one. The Houthis left Yemen in boats to attack a container ship. US helicopter arrives to tell them to go back. Houthis start shooting at them, USA responds by blowing them up
2023-12-31 15:09:52
Seems like a couple issues here are 1. Was this action in Yemen? That's a requirement. and 2. Based on the account so far, it's not really the USA "initiating" an attack. What's the counter arguments to these two things?
2023-12-31 15:36:05
So based on my limited research, it seems VERY unlikely that a Maersk ship was sailing through Yemeni territorial waters. Looking at ship tracking, ships purposefully avoid going through anything belonging to Yemen. You can see maritime traffic not going through Yemeni territorial waters in the area where this is alleged to have occurred: [link removed]
2024-01-01 07:47:02
The rules state: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Per the CENTCOM description of the event, the Houthis fired upon a cargo ship. A US helicopter responded to an SOS call, and arrived and told the boats to disperse. The Houthis then fired upon the helicopter, and the helicopter retaliated in self-defense. The US did not initiate any attack in that chain of events. The Houthis initiated the attack.
2024-01-01 18:00:18
Nice find.
2024-01-01 18:00:27
I agree.
2024-01-02 09:23:29
FYI, I realized a few hours ago that the US military is not allowed to initiate a military strike without either (1) Congress declaring war or (2) Biden invoking the War Powers Resolution. Neither has happened here. So a "yes" resolution here would be labeling the US helicopter crew as criminals. I think it's No even beside that, but to me this locks it in. UMA/Polymarket can't be going around labeling the US military as criminals with 0 evidence to back it up. I've posted all of this in the UMA discord thread on the dispute.
2024-01-02 18:02:42
Yikes.
2024-01-03 06:40:25
Didn't get the Christmas song thing right, but thankfully still won! Whew.
2024-01-04 14:19:11
Anyone opposed to me proposing "Yes" to this?
2024-01-04 14:30:57
THE BITCOIN Etf HAS ALREADY BEEN APPROVED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP IN 2020 AS ONE OF HIS LAST ACTS OF OFFICE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF "JARED" KUSHNER. THIS IS A YES, BUT BIDEN MAY UNDO IT ON JANUARY 6TH, 3RD ANNIVERSARY OF KILLING PATRIOT ASHLI BABBITT.
2024-01-04 14:35:58
A SPEECH IN bERLIN WILL BE THE KEY (GERMANY)
2024-01-04 15:20:19
8 weeks left!
2024-01-05 04:05:58
maybenotdepends preparing a 50pence-style UMA special?
2024-01-05 18:28:12
They don't
2024-01-05 18:36:05
This was modeled after PredictIt, and you may have different resolutions for the two markets if you go the immediate resolve route (which they will likely avoid).
2024-01-06 05:28:50
"Operating"
2024-01-08 13:05:48
I found a potential PROBLEM in rules in the USA the January 15th is "Martin Luther King Jr. Day" a holiday for them -- it says this is a bank holiday. Can we get this extended to January 16th please due to this error?
2024-01-08 13:08:04
I have found a huge problem in the rules - Monday January 15th in America is A holiday: "Martin Luther King Jr. Day" according to the calendar website. This is a huge problem, and the market should be extended to January 16th!!!!
2024-01-08 14:42:32
Test
2024-01-09 13:36:40
Huh? Almost all Gazans live in UNRWA camps rn.
2024-01-10 13:33:53
Repent, all of ye and turn to God.
2024-01-10 14:50:15
ALERT: If Yes goes below 50c, the SEC will reject it. We only have a few hours left to get it done. We need all hands on deck from the No-tards! All hands on deck from the No-tards!
2024-01-10 14:53:18
ALERT: If the price goes below 50c, the SEC will reject the ETF. Need all hands on deck to make that happen!!!!
2024-01-10 19:08:45
Price is being pumped so high based on phony headlines lol, SEC hasn't approved anything yet
2024-01-12 04:45:13
The facts as I see them:
2024-01-12 04:47:39
-Most of Gaza is controlled by Israel right now, with no freedom of movement for Hamas fighters.
2024-01-12 04:48:12
-85% of Gazans live outside of Hamas' control at this point in or right next to UNRWA camps. UNRWA provides food and water and facilities.
2024-01-12 04:48:53
-UNRWA has indicated that Hamas does not govern anymore, and that there is a complete breakdown in law & order and basic utilities.
2024-01-12 05:20:55
I think the very common sense interpretation is that includes the ETFs that were just approved and just launched, to much fanfare.
2024-01-12 05:27:45
You nailed it sir
2024-01-12 12:17:54
Well obviously there isn't enough for yes, but the Verge articles indicates we may get a yes confirmation this month, so its both definitely "No" right now but also, in some people's eyes, probably going to be a Yes by the end of the month.
2024-01-12 13:07:07
I don't think this is true, but if it is true, then please post the proof.
2024-01-12 23:46:28
In Taiwan we have saying, "Sleep early, miss the rice balls." Ko is the rice balls. Don't sleep early.
2024-01-13 01:27:13
Lol, it's like they forgot one target or something. What a crappy way to lose a bet.
2024-01-14 13:28:02
Glad to see you switched back to No
2024-01-16 02:21:40
Vivek can still get 2nd, it's the fake NEWS MEDIA that is trying to warp everything!!! So many votes are out, and people LOVE VIVEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2024-01-17 18:20:16
ๅไธๆฅ๏ผไฟๆๅฎ้
2024-01-21 13:23:46
This was posted by a No holder: "Political control in Gaza is over the people of Gaza. If Israel forced Gazans out of the areas they control, then Israel does not have political control." Isn't this making the case for Israel having political control over Gazans? Israel told the civilians of Gaza to evacuate (Hamas tried to get them to stay), and they complied with Israel's commands. The vast majority of civilians now live in UNRWA camps that are not run by Hamas.
2024-01-22 11:26:09
"They're in full control of Gaza because they report death tolls."
2024-01-22 13:27:39
Is it possible to tip negative dollars?
2024-01-23 16:22:24
Lots of dummies on Yes
2024-01-24 22:48:19
Things are tough for MND, scalping pennies.
2024-01-26 00:24:06
Wild market, it might be over 1000, but there's no announcement and no credible reporting that I've seen that puts the number over 1000 (lots of guesstimates).
2024-01-26 14:10:31
This market is funny, the Houthis are trying REALLY HARD to strike the US military, but they can't do it lol.
2024-01-26 23:51:40
Lol. Israel's main ports are on the Med. And the ship they struck today was carrying RUSSIAN oil.
2024-01-30 04:39:57
Its already the law in many states and countries...
2024-01-30 16:54:57
Basically 2 people will decide the vote, both employees of Risk Labs
2024-01-30 16:55:41
Hamas lost control over most of Gaza, so people proposed it as Yes because that is the requirement for Yes to win.
2024-01-31 16:43:09
UMA will be deciding that once 50p proposes, he is just praying that there is another event so he doesn't have to pay $750 to hear their answer.
2024-02-01 05:36:10
There is a tiny percent chance, yes, but it's not something to worry about.
2024-02-01 15:37:57
[link removed]
2024-02-02 16:00:12
me and you traderboy, mano a mano
2024-02-05 19:12:39
Who? Navalny?
2024-02-07 07:19:32
I just love the Golden Knights
2024-02-08 12:05:46
it does not look remotely organic lol
2024-02-08 13:14:06
***There goes your money
2024-02-08 13:43:49
Men, the rate cutter army is larger than we anticipated. Their legions are amassing outside our gates. We're running low on cash and other supplies. But we will NOT surrender. We will NEVER surrender.
2024-02-08 22:30:22
No way
2024-02-08 22:33:50
I was surprised by the pricing in "gay" and "Zelensky." Putin doesn't really use the word gay often that I'm aware of, and he famously never uses Zelensky's name (I think only once).
2024-02-08 23:06:17
Man, how lucky did the Zelensky Yes people get lol. SMH.
2024-02-08 23:06:40
Play bad, get there.
2024-02-11 14:08:13
@trialseed What are your thinking for Other, broski?
2024-02-11 17:08:25
Maybe we can post our way to an invasion
2024-02-12 13:43:48
Lol, what? I can't tell if you're being serious. If you are, that's not going to be a thing.
2024-02-14 09:53:33
2 weeks left!
2024-02-19 14:24:50
Lol
2024-02-19 20:14:09
True odds of him sitting in jail or prison by EOY are about 1 in a 1000
2024-02-20 00:34:16
What does 20/2 mean
2024-02-20 01:18:02
Not good, folks
2024-02-20 01:32:56
Nikki Haley, if you are reading this, please DO NOt drop out.
2024-02-20 18:52:45
My hope and guess is that it's not until the next week that they do the ceremony
2024-02-21 04:43:43
Calm down bro.
2024-02-21 17:38:47
Dune doubters BTFO.
2024-02-27 03:10:23
Hm, seems quite sketchy
2024-02-28 13:02:54
We don't know when or if it lost communication at this point...nearly certain we'll find out today
2024-03-03 20:02:36
It's a domestic (North American) box office market
2024-03-05 01:21:53
Squeeky bum time.
2024-03-05 01:37:48
Yes Holders: [link removed]
2024-03-05 19:24:07
Stay golden, traderboy
2024-03-08 05:04:40
Will the last one out please turn off the lights
2024-03-09 07:09:21
Lol 12% for the anomaly, but like 1-2% in terms of global temperature of the earth.
2024-03-09 07:15:43
Solid comment bro, but let's keep that kind of smart thinking on the down low. The comment section is mostly for the insane people to ramble on about frivolities.
2024-03-16 18:29:04
So close, yet so far.
2024-03-17 02:25:50
What in TARNATION is going on here ????
2024-03-17 04:32:12
DISPOOTED
2024-03-17 04:36:39
I was becoming concerned that this market would resolve without UMA's involvement. Phew. What a relief. Glad to see them step up to the plate here and rescue us.
2024-03-17 15:49:59
No
2024-03-17 19:52:58
Probably, but if they rescinded the Mayday call (like they were able to fix or solve whatever the issue was), then it wouldn't be an emergency landing.
2024-03-18 02:23:48
If it hits 200 again, we win twice
2024-03-18 20:20:15
Don't be a sore loser. A Mayday is an international emergency call, and a very serious matter. It means he thinks the plane is at risk of a serious problem, which could kill people. If he rescinded the Mayday and landed without incident, then it wouldn't be an emergency landing.
2024-03-20 15:18:39
Sure buddy. You'll also get a refund in the Santa market if it winds up that all Christmas toys are made in the North Pole.
2024-03-23 03:35:38
MrDunkedOn
2024-03-23 13:07:23
Yep, going to be a tricky one.
2024-03-23 13:59:32
It's not about who Russia says is behind the attack either, although their claims are important to take into account. It's about consensus of information, taking into account all facts and claims.
2024-03-24 07:08:00
They filmed themselves pledging to isis and yelling Islamic slogans while killing people. Not exactly a controversial decision here.
2024-03-25 15:37:56
I can make a cogent argument for both resolutions here. 1. Trump has clearly "won" his appeal. His original bond requirement of $450m was thrown out, and the deadline was pushed back. This meets the requirements for "Yes" and also the spirit of the market that he didn't miss his bond payment. 2. Trump will likely not actually post the bond by the end of the day today, and so this would lead to "No." And that seems like it answers the question posed by the title.
2024-03-25 15:38:51
My guess is Poly will just pick yes or no, and decide which one wins, but I'd personally go with 50/50 here.
2024-03-26 17:17:52
He becomes the nominee at the convention
2024-03-27 00:49:35
GODZIRRRRRRA
2024-03-27 18:30:12
I asked for her, but they didn't put it up. She's included in "Other Woman."
2024-03-31 04:07:07
UMA is going to resolve it as NO unless there is evidence. You posting a list is not evidence.
2024-03-31 05:56:33
Alternates, I sort of agree with you that based on the rules, a "yes" is plausible here. By the same token, I think it would be very hard to answer this question "Yes" just based on sketchy claims from Russia that seem like bald-faced lies.
2024-03-31 11:42:10
"Buyers think that he'll get convicted but not serve time?" Yes, that is exactly what is going to happen.
2024-03-31 12:10:30
A top legal mind, clearly: [link removed]
2024-04-01 04:08:41
Lol. Erdogan's party controls most of the media.
2024-04-01 22:59:24
Everyone's favorite useless drunk has shown his face again, welcome back! Glad you found a few more bucks to bet.
2024-04-04 11:31:55
He is not going to go to prison for business records, dude. Put your thinking cap on, if you even own one.
2024-04-06 14:51:21
Couple of clunkers this week
2024-04-07 06:49:33
If the market is at 8c, it means you have to have an offer in the range above and below 8c. You can't just have one-sided liquidity below 10. Otherwise, someone could (for instance) just offer 5 million shares at 1c and get rewards knowing no one would match it.
2024-04-08 03:04:13
It's the point of the market that a typo would count, otherwise this would be trading at 1c
2024-04-09 07:27:32
He used to be a big trader here, but he went broke and now haunts the comments section with awful posts.
2024-04-14 15:02:40
I think I made money here but ultimately I have no clue
2024-04-16 02:22:27
Don't take it to $0.001 too early, or they might load up on yes and then launch the planes.
2024-04-18 02:24:34
Haven't a clue in the world
2024-04-25 16:26:30
Just inhale and relax buddy, nobody is pumping anything. I have no idea what I'm doing and just making bets and having fun out there.
2024-04-26 21:25:35
It has been disputed
2024-04-30 23:07:49
And yet you are here. Same guy who pretended he was going to bet on the other CZ market, but was too scared to do it.
2024-05-03 06:05:31
Today is now today
2024-05-05 20:54:31
Drake fanboys don't know when to give up
2024-05-08 00:58:23
what do you mean?
2024-05-09 19:00:43
Russia ๐คฃ
2024-05-12 16:26:39
Yes can give you a tip. Seabiscuit in the 8th race.
2024-05-13 17:01:23
Don't be dense.
2024-05-13 19:48:04
Even in a market where he actually makes a profit, Relay still has more posts (11) than profits ($3.50).
2024-05-15 08:54:13
everytime i click on this market, there's another 10 posts from the resident nutcase. scribbling with his shit all over the walls while his account dwindles to $0.
2024-05-15 14:40:25
He's lost so much money on this site its not even funny.
2024-05-16 06:34:46
It has to be proven, otherwise No wins.
2024-05-16 12:26:34
The Portal is currently under arrest, and is unlikely to get out of jail in time to go live again
2024-05-16 13:35:14
Yes.
2024-05-16 21:15:13
How much No are you going to make me buy? I need at least some money for food!!!!
2024-05-16 23:31:51
I am selling you as much Yes as you want to buy, buddy.
2024-05-17 18:02:56
Yikes. Relay can't keep affording these big Ls.
2024-05-17 18:39:08
The guy is able to buy tens and tens of thousands of shares without the price moving, and yet he keeps posting "sell me more YES." Hey pal, we are selling you more yes over and over again.
2024-05-17 20:08:14
Do you know the guy who posts non-stop crazy stuff on the site as JewSIS or ReesesPieces or whatever other name, those are all Relay. He has like 50 accounts. Has been consistently losing money and is very bitter and mad at everyone.
2024-05-18 21:15:29
USYK will crush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or they draw.
2024-05-18 23:45:18
FURY = HE LOSE
2024-05-18 23:45:50
USYK POWER, PLUS I ALMOST WIN ON DRAW AND MAKE BIG MONEY. SLAVA UKRAINI
2024-05-18 23:46:44
Smell ya later.
2024-05-19 14:24:45
This is what my mom tells me when she calls
2024-05-20 02:39:55
You've been here for like 3 days, and you immediately have a reputation for being a clown and a liar. Nice!
2024-05-20 05:00:00
Iran state media officially announced his death at 12:30am EST.
2024-05-20 05:27:23
This was disputed, and will now go to UMA.
2024-05-20 19:56:23
Well this would be a gargantuan loss! But I'm still hopeful it won't be done in May.
2024-05-20 20:21:49
Bought 12k more No!
2024-05-20 20:30:57
And now we flip back
2024-05-20 20:37:11
It's just money. No need to cry about it.
2024-05-20 21:03:10
The Coinbase article and the reporting from the Bloomberg guys on Twitter seems quite clear that the ETFs are not approved without both steps of a 2-step process.
2024-05-20 22:17:32
So the guy who posted that they don't need an S-1 deleted his post, okay then.
2024-05-20 22:37:06
AMLO has almost a 70% approval rating, and "Massive Caller" is considered a huge joke and a rigged poll.
2024-05-21 03:19:45
Given the odds, it seems like some people get it, but not everyone.
2024-05-21 04:43:31
Even this idiot AI is smart enough to know an S-1 is required before approval -- [link removed]
2024-05-21 07:15:06
DISPUTED!!!
2024-05-21 13:50:52
Third story on the approval, third one to write that an S-1 is needed before approval. Reuters: "The exchange applications are the first step in a two-step approval process."
2024-05-21 16:24:35
A reminder on the three major reports on the Eth ETFs from today and yesterday -- Bloomberg -- " We also need S-1 approvals." Reuters -- "The exchange applications [19b-4] are the first step in a two-step approval process." Coindesk -- "[19b-4] doesn't mean the ETFs will be authorized, though. Would-be issuers also need their S-1 applications approved before the products could begin trading."
2024-05-21 17:58:41
The most clear-cut article to date on the internal chaos within the SEC as one arm appears to give the go-ahead, and the other appears like it might not approve in time -- [link removed]
2024-05-21 18:44:26
Bitwise CEO on whether an S-1 is needed: "It is true of ETFs that its a nuclear key scenario. You have to turn the 19b-4 and you have to turn the S-1. And those are two different divisions of the SEC. That is a true statement." There is no ETF without the SEC signing off on the S-1.
2024-05-21 20:57:08
Latest Bloomberg story: "SEC Approval Could Still Take Months / To launch an EThereum ETF, an issuer must win SEC approval from both the division of Trading and Markets for the 19b-4 filing and the division of Corporate Finance for the S-1, or prospectus."
2024-05-21 21:21:57
Bloomberg has done extensive reporting on how the approval can be delayed due to the S-1s.
2024-05-22 12:15:03
I know that despite the overwhelming reporting that both a 19b-4 and S-1 are needed before an ETF is approved by the SEC, there are still doubters. Here is a previous Polymarket market on ETF approvals -- polymarket.com/event/will-sec-approve-bitwise-etf-by-june-29 -- You can see within the rules that Polymarket considers the S-1 to be a necessary part of the approval process (which matches the reporting).
2024-05-22 12:45:39
I'm not "so sure" about the outcome, because an S-1 may still be approved by the deadline. I've been cautiously adding to No but largely just LPing at this point.
2024-05-22 14:16:28
"The exchange applications [19b-4] are the first step in a two-step approval process." -Reuters [link removed] ----- ""Approving the 19b-4 applications is the first in a two-part process where the SEC would also have to approve issuers' registration statements, known as S-1s - a process that could take several weeks" -Fox Business [link removed] -------- "It is true of ETFs that its a nuclear key scenario. You have to turn the 19b-4 and you have to turn the S-1." -Bitwise CEO on the Unchained podcast about Eth ETFs yesterday ---- "We need S-1 approvals" -Bloomberg reporters on twitter (repeatedly) ---- I have yet to see a story written about these potential 19b-4s approvals that doesn't also mention that the S-1s need to be approved.
2024-05-22 17:12:51
A 19b-4 is an instrument that is between the exchange (like the NYSE) and the SEC. The S-1 is a form that is between the issuer and the SEC. The ETF doesn't exist without an S-1. This is why, over and over again in the reporting that has been posted here, it is pointed out that the ETFs need S-1 approvals as the second step in the process.
2024-05-22 17:24:59
Yeah the approval date is when both happen (which for bitcoin ETFs was the same day, so it didn't matter at all).
2024-05-22 17:30:14
Thankfully the markets are resolved based on reality, not a screaming guy in the comments
2024-05-22 17:44:15
Verge is reporting that Elon dropped his phone in the toilet while trying to write a laughing emoji to a particularly funny tweet. That may be it for tweets this week.
2024-05-22 19:35:34
Bloomberg is reporting that an S-1 approval is required. As is Coindesk and Reuters and Fox Business etc. And the CEOs of the ETF companies.
2024-05-22 19:55:45
There are actually plenty of sources stating that only a 19b-4 are needed. They have green shares next to their names in the Polymarket comment section.
2024-05-22 20:06:56
Just a reminder, this is the Bitwise CEO on a crypto podcast YESTERDAY describing that the S-1 approval is required, he likened it the two keys that fire a nuclear weapon -- "It is true of ETFs that its a nuclear key scenario. You have to turn the 19b-4 and you have to turn the S-1."
2024-05-22 20:51:18
The S-1s were being worked on simultaneously and approved simultaneously, and the modifications to the S-1s and 19b-4s were a widely covered story. Just like here, it is widely covered that the S-1s may not be done simultaneously. It's in every single story.
2024-05-22 22:36:53
That is totally, totally wrong.
2024-05-23 04:22:53
Reminder: If the SEC approves the exchange's 19b-4s and the SEC approves the issuer's S-1s, you have an approved ETF! Congratulations! This is the two-pronged process described in all of the reporting. For Bitcoin ETFs, this was completed on the same day.
2024-05-23 04:24:34
If the SEC approves the exchange's 19b-4s, but the SEC does NOT (yet) approve the issuer's S-1s, you do not have an approved ETF! Sorry! It is illegal to sell, market, or list your ETF anywhere. Source: The SEC, Ethereum ETF companies, Polymarket's Bitwise ETF market, Bloomberg, Reuters, Coindesk, and Fox Business. Hope this was helpful.
2024-05-23 06:10:54
I mean yeah, its the precedent of Polymarket, news sources, company statements, and the law all agree with one another on a topic, and on the other end is Yes holders posting "nah that is dumb."
2024-05-23 07:43:27
19b-4s are a big deal! Exchanges being allowed to list Ethereum ETFs is big. ETH should pop off of it. But the ETFs cannot be approved until they have an S-1. It's the law.
2024-05-23 12:10:36
Based on the law, the reporting, the statements from companies, and Polymarket's past markets, it is quite, quite clear that an ETF needs both things (an 19b-4 for the exchange and an S-1 for the issuer) to be approved. To me, personally, it is extremely clear.
2024-05-23 12:14:17
Based on the law, the reporting, the statements from companies, and Polymarket's past markets, it is quite, quite clear that an ETF needs both things (an 19b-4 for the exchange and an S-1 for the issuer) to be approved by the SEC. To me, this is extremely clear. The articles being written about this have unanimously highlighted the issue with the S-1s, and it is impossible to miss. A yes bet is the equivalent to thinking that both will happen by the end of May.
2024-05-23 12:16:37
The risk here, and its a real one without a clarification, is that Polymarket ignores all of that and lets potentially misleading headlines -- rather than "credible reporting" in the rules -- govern the result.
2024-05-23 12:35:02
Very weird headline as the text of the article disagrees with the headline
2024-05-23 13:44:01
I posted a little tweet about the rules fight on Twitter -- [link removed] -- obv I am biased, but I hope the post is at least a little unbiased in assessing the situation.
2024-05-23 14:17:09
Nice find, yeah the issuers have been quite clear that they need both for approval.
2024-05-23 16:27:36
VanEck's Ethereum ETF guy just posted on Twitter: "Basic stuff: ETFs are not considered 'approved' until both the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A, or N-2) & the 19b-4 filing have been signed off on by the SEC."
2024-05-23 19:48:32
We now have two of the ETF issuers point blank and emphatically saying that the 19b-4 and S-1 both need to be approved before THEIR PRODUCT is approved by the SEC. I think we can trust the ETF companies to accurately describe themselves. I can only assume that the price reflects the likelihood of an S-1 before the deadline, which could happen but to me seems overly optimistic.
2024-05-23 21:21:32
CoinDesk headline says only half of the approvals have been made: "The SEC has approved national securities exchanges' forms for the listing and trading of spot ether ETFs. It still has to approve the issuers' forms before these products can launch."
2024-05-23 21:31:37
Bloomberg story clearly argues for No -- "The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday paved the way for trading in exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency Ether, putting the digital-asset industry on the cusp of a significant milestone. In a first-of-its-kind blessing, the SEC signed off on a proposal by exchanges including Cboe Global Markets Inc. to list products tied to the worldโs second-biggest cryptocurrency. The move, which had seemed unlikely as recently as last week, removes a key hurdle for spot Ether ETF trading in the US. Issuers now need a separate sign-off from the regulator; no deadline has been set for that decision."
2024-05-23 21:36:36
This is directly from the ETF issuer: "Basic stuff: ETFs are not considered 'approved' until both the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A, or N-2) & the 19b-4 filing have been signed off on by the SEC."
2024-05-23 22:06:29
The consensus of reporting from Bloomberg, Coindesk, and CNBC (first 3 I checked) all argue clearly in favor of the S-1 being needed before SEC approval.
2024-05-23 22:06:53
CNBC -- "The order technically does not approve the funds themselves or set a date for the ETFs to begin trading."
2024-05-23 22:07:53
Bloomberg -- "Issuers now need a separate sign-off from the [SEC]."
2024-05-23 22:08:26
CoinDesk: "Ether ETFs Clear Major Hurdle, Though SEC Hasn't Cleared Them for Trading Yet"
2024-05-24 00:41:26
Think it ultimately ended up being an expedient resolution, and a bit of a scammy resolution.
2024-05-26 22:23:25
When I last checked this market, there were hundreds of Relay comments.
2024-05-26 22:23:58
Flagging this for the Polymarket team to investigate this error.
2024-05-27 03:17:29
Sahil if you are reading this, please TIP me $5, thank you I need it
2024-05-27 14:54:40
Had it happen to me before, twice. Lovely time.
2024-05-29 00:27:56
Necesito que Claudia gane. Por favor, mis amigos.
2024-05-29 16:19:57
It is covered by this line: In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".
2024-05-29 18:29:03
Where is this? I'll take Claudia for the max amount I can at those odds.
2024-05-29 18:31:42
Las encuestas que dan victoria a mi candidato son reales. ยฟotros? Falso. Muy falso.
2024-05-30 06:52:57
ยฟNo tienes chistes en tu pais?
2024-05-30 15:12:27
Everyone point and laugh at the yes holders!
2024-05-30 23:15:29
The fine print also says day 3...I see what you're saying about "the note" up top. But I think that is a little silly to say that this confused you. The market is very straight forward. Plus, if he's not playing today, then tomorrow is probably a no go as well.
2024-06-01 02:16:00
Just because you two goofballs are gullible and believe bad reporting doesn't make it "impossible."
2024-06-02 04:30:58
I'll sell you 100k shares at 20c if you want
2024-06-02 05:04:11
A mark-up from what? The only price is what ppl are willing to pay. We make them up. If you want to buy in bulk, I am offering you a price. You're doing overtime working spamming multiple sites pumping this chick, you even convinced resident dumbass truthteller to buy at high prices.
2024-06-02 23:48:44
Any guesses on who wins?
2024-06-02 23:54:56
Link please
2024-06-03 00:06:38
Dios a mio, that exit poll is nuts
2024-06-03 03:16:56
Wow, big clarification from Polymarket -- "This market was only on the first win, and because Galvez won the first exit poll, she will be paid out as the winner. Any subsequent numbers, including the counting of actual ballots, will not be considered for this market.
2024-06-03 10:25:48
market was created long before he was considered a contender
2024-06-03 22:39:57
Nope
2024-06-04 14:12:14
Tale as old as time. Either Relay makes a tiny amount on a topic he barely understands, or he gets BTFO again betting on something he barely understands.
2024-06-05 20:13:44
I was very confused why people thought Ghabilaf wouldn't run
2024-06-06 11:43:04
It's not exactly a secret that Snowden hates Biden.
2024-06-07 14:23:03
The dream is collapsing.
2024-06-10 18:42:17
Is that a partnership?
2024-06-13 14:51:09
lots more yes for you to buy
2024-06-13 20:40:13
8 hours left for the NVDA dickheads
2024-06-13 20:56:11
The post below me is a scam from a disgusting poor person. Do not be a poor person. Do not fall for scams.
2024-06-14 12:49:01
AAPL is strong LIKE OX
2024-06-14 12:49:48
NVDA is supported by a gallery of Dickheads, Dweebs, and Dipshits
2024-06-14 13:13:15
We have the power of GAY PRIDE MONTH in our corner
2024-06-14 13:21:22
NVDA red
2024-06-14 13:31:10
You did that on purpose?
2024-06-14 13:40:26
6 hours left to make-up a 3% difference, this pricing is wild
2024-06-14 13:47:27
What is power hour?
2024-06-14 13:54:35
MSFT is our new champion!!! COME ON CLIPPIE!!!!
2024-06-14 13:58:24
Rumor on the street is that NVDA has an STD, she nasty, she a ho, stay away from that chica.
2024-06-14 15:19:44
The dream is collapsing.
2024-06-14 16:04:21
2% in 4 hours
2024-06-14 17:21:52
TIM COOK DOWN. BRING ME CLIPPIE'S HEAD!!!!!
2024-06-14 18:07:10
Below link is a scam posted by a dirty poor person.
2024-06-15 21:35:27
Rigged?
2024-06-19 21:17:45
We have to be approaching $5m worth of losses for ppl betting on stuff Mario Nawfal is involved with.
2024-06-20 02:39:09
He is such a nice person.
2024-06-20 08:38:26
Jedi training has really fallen off a cliff
2024-06-20 17:36:24
Fun market, lots of swings
2024-06-21 12:07:31
Lol, they are mostly big numbers, but they are VERY different big numbers.
2024-06-22 00:38:24
It should be USDC.E and on the Polygon chain. Are you using the oracle?
2024-06-22 02:50:50
Team Yes in the house!!!
2024-06-22 04:03:50
Still 2 hours left for a big boy buyer of Yes to come in. Come on in, big boys. We're ready for you!
2024-06-22 04:44:56
This was already explained to you, bimbo. Stop LARPing
2024-06-24 04:26:01
After spending hours of his life across many weeks pumping, Smokey Joe retreating on Huckabee like a dirty dumpster dog.
2024-06-24 14:35:31
Pence also told reporters he didn't want it and would run for re-election in Indiana.
2024-06-28 08:19:20
i'm of the opinion he was definitely senile.
2024-06-28 08:20:07
By "completing", do you mean rambling incoherently? Like: "We finally beat Medicare.โ
2024-06-29 04:58:50
Stop posting total horseshit. Nothing you said is true. Wisconsin (just to take one) has a deadline in SEPTEMBER to name your candidate.
2024-07-07 02:29:05
Market is a little weird as I'm pretty sure this already happened
2024-07-08 03:22:54
Pumping...your bags?
2024-07-18 10:30:22
The more we learn, the more I think this question is unanswerable. It's hard to answer Republican when he is shooting the Republican candidate lol. But Democrat definitely also seems like the wrong answer.
2024-07-19 11:39:07
It's definitely resolving yes, as stuff already seems mostly operational now, let alone 16 hours from now
2024-07-21 06:54:03
It's definitely evidence! I didn't say it was conclusive. Seems like we have learned that he hated both parties and didn't care whether it was Biden or Trump that he was targeting.
2024-07-21 18:12:01
Smell ya later.
2024-07-23 08:14:00
I personally think he is dead, but betting on No because its a hedge
2024-07-23 09:11:25
His death
2024-07-25 02:47:58
The DNC opened it up today for any candidate who wants to join...
2024-07-25 08:05:23
This was unfortunately a scam. After Yes won they changed the rules to disallow the Yes win.
2024-07-25 08:06:33
As a check on my sanity -- I posted JUST the rules, a sentence that Joe Biden has withdrawn, and the DNC statement into ChatGPT just as a sanity check, and obviously it said "Yes" has won.
2024-07-25 16:52:22
Glad to see you're putting your money where your mouth is
2024-07-26 14:43:38
Really wish I could see my PnL in this contract
2024-07-26 22:57:12
The worst bettor in this site's history (therealbatman) is on NO big time.
2024-07-27 05:49:52
Lol, I'm just betting on it for fun
2024-07-27 21:17:50
I'm pretty neutral on this one. I think what Lummis proposed is definitely a strategic reserve -- you buy bitcoin and hold it. What Trump proposed -- that they not sell seized Bitcoin and stockpile it -- is definitely not what Lummis is proposing. And what Trump proposed is not how the US currently operates our petroleum strategic reserve (whereas Lummis is proposing something extremely similar to the petroleum strategic reserve). However, given all of that, Polymarket has been throwing out their rules and siding with the "vibes" of a market regardless of whether it is correct or not. And the vibes here is that Trump announced something similar to a reserve, so it's probably unlikely that a dispute would win. It's really unfortunate that Polymarket is going down the path of throwing out the truth in favor of vibes, but that is their decision.
2024-07-29 00:23:08
Maduro lost by so much that rigging it will be difficult, we'll see what they can pull off
2024-07-29 20:07:46
Even Lula abandoned Maduro and thinks it was rigged. Tough scene for the bus driver.
2024-07-30 08:40:12
Both sides have claimed victory, and the opposition has just published a comprehensive list of precinct results that shows they definitively won the election. Other countries are calling on the Maduro government to release any precinct results they have, which the government has refused to do (because they made them up). The result of the election will likely end up in the court system in Venezuela, and this market could be open as the winner is determined by the Venezuelan system.
2024-07-30 14:00:18
The side that definitely won the election and is publishing precinct results is at 10c, and the guy who definitely committed fraud and is not publishing any precinct results (for the first time ever) is trading at 90c. Is this a failure of prediction markets?
2024-07-31 02:18:31
Oh we finally decided that the guy who lost by 40 points isn't worth 95c anymore?
2024-07-31 02:41:03
"The @CarterCenter said a technical mission it sent to Venezuela was unable to verify the results of the countryโs presidential election and blamed officials for a โcomplete lack of transparencyโ in declaring Nicolas Maduro the winner without publishing polling station tallies."
2024-07-31 03:06:23
[link removed]
2024-07-31 03:11:46
[link removed] --- just a heads up that the opposition has now released more of the official audited results (81%) and more of the precinct audited results (81%) than the government has (80% of the "vote", 0% of the precinct vote)
2024-07-31 03:13:50
They didn't even pretend to release real numbers, the 80% of the "vote" they released so far are exactly round numbers, 44.200000, 51.20000, and 4.60000 lol [link removed]
2024-07-31 04:37:25
"48 hours since the CNE announced the first results bulletin, and it still hasn't published the detailed results by center and table on its website, nor has it delivered the results database to the participating parties."
2024-07-31 05:35:38
The proposal of "Yes" is currently being voted on by UMA. Yes has 4% of the vote, Too Early has 96% of the vote.
2024-07-31 06:00:43
the site is: vote dot uma dot xyz
2024-07-31 12:13:30
Seems like it wouldn't count, per the rules...not sure if it should count. Usually countries react accordingly, so I imagine Turkey would also suspend relations on their end?
2024-07-31 18:46:49
I really doubt he'll switch him out, but he obv should.
2024-07-31 23:34:32
There has never been a Fox News Presidential debate ever. Lol.
2024-08-01 00:23:33
The "Yes" proposal was unsuccessful. Not enough evidence that he won.
2024-08-01 00:24:25
It will be nearly impossible for Maduro to fake the precinct results. They've already broken the law by not releasing them within 48 hours. [link removed]
2024-08-01 00:36:30
I'm not on the Polymarket team, and this is not the final dispute. And it didn't get reversed. It got remanded to "Too Early." Because it looks like Maduro didn't actually win the election, and committed massive fraud.
2024-08-01 00:39:09
Recapping again that the opposition has released 81% of the results, and 81% of the precinct results: [link removed] The CNE was required by law to post the full results within 48 hours. They still have only released 80% of the "vote" total, not 100%. And they have released 0% of the precinct results. It looks like Gonzales won by north of 30 points in the election, and the opposition has proved that with verified, signed precinct data direct from the CNE machines.
2024-08-01 00:40:20
A new proposal can be made if you want, but proposing Maduro is very likely to lose again because it is still Too Early.
2024-08-01 00:42:27
They faked what? The precinct cards are signed, and have an individual hash number that can't be tampered with. There are pictures of the precinct results posted by people on social media. The only people who faked the data is the Maduro regime lol. Which is they are breaking the law, and ignoring the international calls to release the precinct data.
2024-08-01 02:14:07
The guy betting on Maduro just posted "market manipulators should be banned"? Lmao.
2024-08-01 02:19:16
I think the market should expire to the truth. Over ten million people went to the polls, and voted for Gonzales by 30 points, verified by precinct data. I'm going to bet on that guy winning the election. If I lose money, I don't care. At least I'm not some stooge arguing to "please gib me my fraud money" like half the commenters here.
2024-08-01 10:44:26
A Maduro bettor is claiming that there is an attempt to "manipulate the market'!! Hahahaha, stop. I am laughing too hard. Irony is dead.
2024-08-01 12:05:17
I've been feeding ChatGPT articles day by day to update it on the situation, and assess how it should resolve this market. I have not included any biased sentences, just posting articles & posting the rules. I have also included both pro-opposition and pro-Maduro sources to make sure it is not getting just one side of the story. Here is its assessment: "Conclusion The inclusion of this article offers several insights into the ongoing debate: Complex Political Context: The political and international dimensions of the situation are complex, with conflicting narratives and interests at play. Legal and Procedural Questions: The procedural issues and lack of transparency remain central to the "No" argument, despite Maduro's legal maneuvers to secure legitimacy. Verifiability and Legitimacy: Given the technical and legal challenges to forgery, alongside the significant independent evidence of opposition victory, the situation supports a resolution leaning towards "No" unless the CNE can decisively prove otherwise. Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether the prediction market rules prioritize the procedural aspects of the election or the broader question of legitimacy and transparency. Given the substantial evidence and procedural irregularities highlighted by both opposition and international observers, the balance seems to tip toward questioning the CNE's declaration."
2024-08-01 12:07:45
More legible version -- [link removed]
2024-08-01 12:22:41
Who will their President be...?
2024-08-01 12:23:52
It's important to feed ChatGPT unbiased information, else you get misleading information back. Does ChatGPT know that CNE already broke the law by not releasing precinct results? They are in violation of the Venezeulan Constitution, which is why Maduro is at the TSJ.
2024-08-02 02:41:50
Good guys winning, bad guys losing, etc.
2024-08-02 02:49:27
82% of the precinct results have now been uploaded showing Gonzalez definitively won -- [link removed] The opposition claims they have 90% of the vote tallies so far, so I guess more will be updated in the near term future. The CNE still has only released 80% of the "vote" and has released 0% of the precinct data. They claim the precinct data was hacked by...North Macedonia (this is not a joke).
2024-08-02 02:59:37
NFL says its 21-17 Final score, Bears win (as expected): https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1819205879990047185
2024-08-02 03:12:29
"Basically a poll." Lol, they are the results from the CNE machines, audited, and signed by witnesses.
2024-08-02 04:28:42
Did you read this part of the rules? "If the Chicago Bears win, this market will resolve to "Bears"." The Bears won, therefore it expires to DAAAA BEARRSSSS.
2024-08-02 05:46:13
Tendrรกs suerte si gobierna 6 DรAS mรกs.
2024-08-02 14:27:02
What happened here? Why was this proposed?
2024-08-02 21:01:22
Keep your eye on the prize here. Maduro is scamming. Gonzalez actually won. People betting on Maduro are betting on the scam artist. But the scam appears to be really horrible, and can be easily disproven.
2024-08-02 21:03:06
Consensus is the easiest thing here, I think we easily have a very wide-ranging consensus that Gonzalez won. Just in the past few hours, multiple South American countries have recognized Gonzalez as the winner of the election.
2024-08-02 21:03:37
It's been 5 days, and they still HAVE NOT released the precinct rules. This was required by law to be posted within 48 hours. 5 days later, and they still can't do it.
2024-08-02 21:09:48
I'm just being stuffed with infinite no shares of the IDF Soldier
2024-08-02 21:31:36
and The Guru, I have no idea who it is going to be, and this comment could look very stupid in 3 days. It's just funny that people were buying infinite shares non-stop on that silly hype video.
2024-08-02 21:44:12
Interesting, so confirmation that he was on an IDF base mucking about doing army projects.
2024-08-02 22:00:40
lmao [link removed]
2024-08-02 22:29:30
With crypto and stocks both crashing, the safest asset in the world is Shapiro for VP.
2024-08-02 22:30:41
In the first 30 seconds she told him she was picking Shapiro, and the rest of the 90 minutes they played Gin Rummy and gossiped about celebrities.
2024-08-03 02:00:50
Still have not released any of the precinct data as required by law
2024-08-03 08:34:58
A reminder that the CNE has already violated the law by not publishing the full data tables showing the precinct-level results. They were supposed to do so within 48 HOURS. There is a whole story in the Associated Press detailing how the opposition tallied the precinct-level results on their own, showing an overwhelming victory for Gonzalez straight from the CNE machines.
2024-08-03 12:40:42
Based on what I've found, the interview was in the late afternoon, so it's a toss-up whether it was filmed outside the window or not. I also think it'll be close to impossible to figure out when it was filmed, so probably lean towards not counting it. I also think its probably moot as he will probably say the word 10 more times this month.
2024-08-03 22:47:30
A few misleading or wrong things in your post. 1. Maduro is still President for a few more months, regardless of who won. There is a transition period. 2. The opposition results are the digitized and certified precinct results from the CNE machines. The Maduro government has refused to release the precinct results to verify their win, which is against the law. 3. They did allow international observers. The Carter Center was there. After the election, they fled the country and released a damning report. 4. I understand the gist of your argument is that CNE's word is law, and that would probably be the case if the opposition didn't go to great lengths to keep and catalog the verified proof that they won the election.
2024-08-04 10:29:07
1. CNE already broke the law by not releasing the precinct results. 2. The opposition RELEASED THE PRECINCT RESULTS showing an overwhelming win with verified actas that are signed by witnesses, and directly from the CNE machines. Just incredible that people think a fraud that has been proven to be fraud is some "official" thing.
2024-08-04 12:01:54
Exacto
2024-08-04 12:38:30
If it wasn't for the Polymarket intern immediately tweeting "MADURO WON" right alongside Cuba & China, this would be at 95c Gonzalez right now. The opposition preserved the evidence from CNE machines that they won the election, and that the results weren't close. CNE released easily disprovable fake results, and then has refused for a week now to release the precinct results (which violates the law). It's not exactly a shock that there's tons of countries in the Americas who are now recognizing Gonzalez as the winner.
2024-08-04 12:41:31
Considering nearly 70% of voters voted for Gonzalez, I would say that Venezuela has made its thoughts known on this issue.
2024-08-04 15:13:17
All the Maduro yes holders be like -- [link removed]
2024-08-04 15:16:41
We literally have precinct results from over 24,000 precincts showing Edmundo won, all of which are SIGNED and VERIFIED using a QR Code lmao.
2024-08-04 19:23:15
Good shout, reading through that chat, and the Edmundo arguments cite evidence and facts, and the Maduro arguments are like "please sir, endorse the fraud."
2024-08-04 19:35:32
As opposed to Maduro's electoral strategy and the Maduro holders arguments, the case for Edmundo can be made by real people using actual evidence. Edmundo has the majority on his side in both cases.
2024-08-05 10:47:26
What other betting market?
2024-08-06 13:39:00
The important thing is we all had fun!
2024-08-08 17:23:20
Were they paid to put this market up?
2024-08-08 22:08:25
There's no venue yet, not even a city -- "If both candidates say they have agreed to a debate on that date but have not settled on a venue or platform, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market."
2024-08-08 22:09:27
I don't know what to make of this market, I am very biased now, but as far as I am aware this is the state of play: Kamala wants to do September 10th. Trump agreed to 3 at once, including September 10th. ABC announces both sides agreed, but didn't post any details (location, venue, etc.). Then Kamala announces she will only agree to 1 debate. So will Trump now renege on his original 3 debate agreement before a location/venue is finalized?
2024-08-08 22:19:28
Don't bet on my ramblings bro, I don't know what I'm doing here despite what it seems like lol
2024-08-10 12:37:58
Do you think GCR still thinks Trump will win?
2024-08-10 12:51:37
Is that a joke? Are you stupid? It's General Camouflage Rates
2024-08-11 03:21:15
Just a couple of old dudes talking tampons, as old men usually do.
2024-08-12 20:53:19
Whoever has the 12am shift at the censorship button will be the decider
2024-08-13 03:04:52
When did it start and when did it end?
2024-08-13 03:49:38
Great spaces tonight from Trump, he knocked it out of the park. I was on the fence about Kamala or Trump, and Trump's 2 hours of rambling, semi-coherent nonsense where he sounded 95 years old convinced me that he is the man for the job.
2024-08-13 14:00:12
MrBest, your pretend country needs you!!!!! Head to the front, soldier!!!! "Russia's military isnโt getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses, sources say. Regional officials are failing to meet more than a third of their recruitment quotas on average"
2024-08-13 14:11:14
A scary thought, if I didn't already know you're a 5'6" balding manlet who is too scared to leave your own "house." I'll be generous with my definition.
2024-08-13 14:13:51
Women and children are being bused out, so you know it's serious.
2024-08-13 14:47:38
Perfect username
2024-08-13 19:08:05
2.5 months is a long time going up against the very professional Russian Army
2024-08-13 21:59:59
Russia is a fake country that does not exist separate from Ukraine on old maps, and the Russians speak the same language as the Ukrainians, it is only natural for the Ukrainain army to attempt to reunify Ukraine and Russia. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Russia has been overrun by Nazis and needs to be denazified. And it is imperative that we support the Ukrainian army's attempts to denazify Russia.
2024-08-13 22:27:10
Will bet anyone $1m that a $1m fine is possible under the law.
2024-08-14 03:00:35
Okay cool, great.
2024-08-14 15:08:13
Don't pump using my position you clown.
2024-08-14 17:41:56
Moron. No offense.
2024-08-14 19:45:30
Praying that I lose money on this one.
2024-08-14 20:07:44
Why are you so mad?
2024-08-15 07:36:39
Other is literally any other movie.
2024-08-15 14:38:19
basis points
2024-08-15 20:45:45
The over/under on Inflation was 80 mentions, and he is at 98 so far.
2024-08-15 21:48:37
He said fire on its own.
2024-08-15 21:50:53
Please do not be pulled in by the fire scam: "Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market." The other rule only applies to compound words to prevent something like "firestorm" counting. He said "fire."
2024-08-15 21:52:05
Total lie. He said fire.
2024-08-15 21:54:43
I don't have to google it, because he also said "Fire."
2024-08-15 22:04:55
Please get a clue man.
2024-08-15 22:18:00
Lol, thanks for reminding me
2024-08-16 11:19:15
please do not tell him how it is possible, thank you.
2024-08-16 19:20:59
Here's something wild I just learned, you can't spell "Holy shit what an embarrasment" without at least a few letters from the word Russia
2024-08-16 19:28:08
I accidentally slept through this and a lot of people got free money. Nonetheless, looks like I made around $1k on this market. Lol. Maybe that's the key.
2024-08-17 15:17:24
I was just talking to a source with very close knowledge of the DNC inner workings and process. They told me, that without a shadow of a doubt, that you should always try to promote a free retreater after a knockout so you have the option of easily retreating into your attacker if you draw the resources you need or a meat shield if you don't.
2024-08-17 15:53:50
I was surprised as well, I think it means Kamala is in trouble.
2024-08-17 16:13:33
Two good punch lines, now he is done for the week.
2024-08-17 16:15:39
That was it, final tweet for the week. Congrats to all 3 holders. See you next Saturday.
2024-08-17 18:42:03
At least you still have your cat
2024-08-17 21:33:06
This nerd better mention crypto.
2024-08-17 21:34:42
MYVAG -- Make Your Venezuela Again Great
2024-08-17 21:54:38
Boom! Drill baby drill pays out TWICE!
2024-08-17 21:54:52
More like 20+ times
2024-08-17 22:03:43
Looks like Trump bought no in Illegal Immigrants
2024-08-17 22:04:33
I'm right behind him, I have a Key West shirt on
2024-08-18 13:26:22
Will Michelle attempt to wrest the nomination away from Kamala if she gives a speech?
2024-08-19 11:31:42
Just singing a song, I think that would be a No for me. If they intro'ed the song or said something after the song, like "Make sure y'all support Kamala out there" (a few sentences like that) then I think the totality of what occurred (song + remarks) would be the equivalent of a speech.
2024-08-19 21:59:56
Drop out! Drop out!
2024-08-20 00:13:01
Anyone who owns yes on alley cat needs their head examined
2024-08-20 03:33:25
What'd he say?
2024-08-20 03:37:07
Neo-Nazi -- DING
2024-08-20 04:08:38
This was a really close one
2024-08-20 04:19:36
Didn't hear any mispronunciations, I am shocked. He said like 80 names lol.
2024-08-20 04:23:53
Gotcha, well I didn't personally hear it. If the market didn't react, seems like it might be a tough sell.
2024-08-20 12:05:32
So is your mother
2024-08-20 20:57:32
Why are you so obsessed with me?
2024-08-21 13:37:30
NOT ENOUGH
2024-08-21 13:48:32
So "behind enemy lines" is just...everywhere?
2024-08-21 14:40:29
WE'RE BACK.
2024-08-21 19:41:56
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18BwGPun15M
2024-08-21 19:45:41
These protesters are proactively nowhere near the DNC. They made that choice on purpose. They're in fact at a different and specific place (the Isareli consulate) protesting. How is this even a debate...?
2024-08-21 20:10:19
I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.
2024-08-22 01:24:16
i don't know anything about this, but it seems like they're pretending to be mad and failing on purpose in order for $$$
2024-08-22 16:56:11
Update on today's protest -- they are sitting in lawn chairs, hanging out and chatting -- https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1826664309352718355
2024-08-22 18:20:00
Is Beyonce a Trump supporter or a Kamala supporter?
2024-08-22 23:15:52
It could definitely happen, but hopefully not
2024-08-23 13:02:49
...?
2024-08-23 13:29:06
Ukrainain control continues to expand lol. Moscow wen?
2024-08-23 20:35:34
Can you cite a single example of a politician who was dropping out who said "I encourage you to vote for me"?
2024-08-23 21:49:22
Imho this was a clear No and UMA likely would've voted it No if it was disputed, and the clarification is ridiculous
2024-08-23 23:30:53
Well that was a scam lol.
2024-08-24 15:02:54
For whatever it's worth, I gave ChatGPT the news article and the rules of the market, and it indicated that CZ was still incarcerated.
2024-08-25 19:12:39
the madman won't stop!
2024-08-26 00:45:09
Good guys winning (so far).
2024-08-26 00:46:42
I have PTSD from losing so much on the wrongfully expired ones.
2024-08-26 01:09:19
Bad guys winning (for now)
2024-08-26 01:09:49
You really should be banned
2024-08-26 01:11:10
If people are buying or selling based on inane comments, they have larger problems in their life.
2024-08-27 00:07:46
Last one out please turn off the lights
2024-08-27 05:55:13
If that happens, I will lose a lot and you will make a lot so I am rooting against that
2024-08-28 02:04:39
UMA hard at work bungling something else
2024-08-28 19:47:34
Smell ya later.
2024-09-04 06:37:41
Global warming is fake and so are hurricanes
2024-09-04 06:52:14
This won't work 99% of the time, and def will never work when there is a picture of the player attached to the market.
2024-09-06 14:43:16
Lol Russia
2024-09-06 17:44:01
At the start of the day, I had a net 1.4 million shares of Kamala, now I have a net 300k of Kamala. Thank you!
2024-09-06 17:49:52
Interesting attempt
2024-09-06 20:05:52
What can I say, I liked Inside Out 2
2024-09-07 03:00:35
Hey dummy, you've found the most frictionless place on the planet to bet on interest rates.
2024-09-07 04:39:32
something went a little wrong early on but it ended up being okay, lost a few bucks on that
2024-09-11 02:40:27
The mics were both muted and unmuted while the other candidate is speaking, so how does this resolve...?
2024-09-11 04:33:09
UMA is one of the dumbest products ever invented, and it barely works. Sorry you're dealing with that.
2024-09-11 05:34:40
Yawn. Prediction market resolves a market to "vibes" again.
2024-09-12 14:02:46
don't be an idiot dude, its a typo
2024-09-13 13:33:43
It's all a scam, the Fed isn't even real. BIDEN!!!!!
2024-09-13 18:28:05
NO CUTS!!!
2024-09-13 20:13:07
If we all hold our hands and BELIEVE, we can make 50bp happen
2024-09-14 05:32:09
Just noticed the clarification lol. That is total bullshit. Wtf? Lol.
2024-09-14 05:39:31
FYI I pointed out to Polymarket that they screwed up. Polymarket rarely fixes these things after clarifications. I agree with you. They switched the market under your feet. Not sure it'll be fixed either.
2024-09-15 22:09:24
Owning an AK47 is more in line with a Trump supporter
2024-09-15 22:30:14
Called it, he voted for Trump in 2016 lmao
2024-09-16 02:36:07
Interesting
2024-09-16 14:18:19
You're welcome!
2024-09-16 17:39:30
0 bp is down over 10% today (1.7 to 1.5)
2024-09-17 00:50:58
Coin deployment imminent.
2024-09-17 00:58:53
One thing that Yes still can hang their hat on is that the Trumps have never overpromised and underdelivered in their lives.
2024-09-17 02:48:31
What's that? People on the other side of my bet got BTFO? You're telling me now for the first time.
2024-09-17 02:53:43
Wow, I took massive profits on stupid Trump shit? That's craaaazy.
2024-09-17 06:42:30
Damn, so many people still in denial
2024-09-17 12:32:05
Good game 25bps
2024-09-17 13:50:23
Anyone know how to put this guy on ignore?
2024-09-17 16:49:42
We're so back, it's so over, we're so back, it's so over
2024-09-17 19:50:13
Inflation is out of control, either pause or raise rates
2024-09-18 00:23:21
The ole switcheroo.
2024-09-18 11:10:26
Wish we could see people's real positions between 25/50 bp. The "no change" psychotics are warping the market.
2024-09-18 11:18:35
sadly Yatsen and kiwi both too scared to take a position
2024-09-18 13:04:29
Lol
2024-09-18 13:22:51
They bought millions of dollars of No in "No Change", and converted them to Yes shares. batman is basically risking $2.2m to win $33k.
2024-09-18 13:33:19
Bonds pricing 50bp at over 90% lol.
2024-09-18 16:25:57
The girl who was 50 pounds heavier than the other was only at 60c to win lmao.
2024-09-18 16:31:56
How do you plan to spen your winnings?
2024-09-18 16:44:04
Why are you weirdos shuffling to 25bp?
2024-09-18 17:22:58
25bp holders close your eyes and ears for this truth bomb: 1-month T-bills currently pricing 50bp at 95% odds.
2024-09-18 17:30:36
Oh the biggest market maker on the site is market making?
2024-09-18 17:56:51
gl guys, nobody is allowed to laugh at either side that loses (except for the No Cut losers)
2024-09-18 18:00:38
Smell ya later.
2024-09-18 18:05:21
Yes.
2024-09-18 18:33:13
Big time credit to me for constantly warning the 25bp holders that they were making a bad bet. I tried!!!
2024-09-18 18:59:18
Ez
2024-09-18 20:08:05
Fingers crossed.
2024-09-18 21:08:30
LOCK HIM UP
2024-09-18 21:09:27
He is appealing to the Supreme Court, and if that doesn't work, he'll go straight to the Pope himself.
2024-09-19 01:09:46
No
2024-09-19 12:18:21
Hold the phone...WAIT A MINUTE....another colossal Russian failure? There must be a mistake.
2024-09-19 13:30:10
Eh?
2024-09-20 00:11:35
I ain't afraid of no NOAA, bring them on
2024-09-20 13:06:14
Are you missing something? Yes. Hope that helps.
2024-09-21 16:02:09
I'm the market maker
2024-09-23 18:16:08
Horrible bet that was bailed out
2024-09-23 21:55:21
Yeah, 5 months ago
2024-09-24 00:43:31
EZ D
2024-09-24 03:41:25
What if they briefly touch fingers, but Walz pulls his hand away and brushes the side of his hair down and says "Gotcha"
2024-09-24 14:47:21
That's a big bet, good luck!
2024-09-24 15:08:22
OH GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2024-09-24 18:57:28
Good luck gents, we'll see how it goes
2024-09-24 19:28:24
Wow this just took a very political turn from Caroline Ellison: "If I go to jail, I will have to undergo a sex change by order of Kamala Harris."
2024-09-24 19:50:30
Kaplan sounds like he wants to adopt her.
2024-09-24 20:00:37
Oof. Big loss for me.
2024-09-24 22:01:52
Obvious
2024-09-25 19:39:19
Lol Russia
2024-09-26 13:06:19
going with 80% odds this post was written by an AI bot
2024-09-26 18:17:24
Let's bet on this shit!!!!
2024-09-26 18:21:04
its still possible but unlikely
2024-09-26 18:41:13
we love Helene!
2024-09-26 19:06:25
DIdn't think I owned any shares, but looks like I have 500 shares of No. I think its No (so far) tbh.
2024-09-26 21:30:36
They call him Lyin' Don. He holds the Bible high and he lies and he lies.
2024-09-26 21:32:41
He's going to meet him and KIDNAP HIM.
2024-09-27 04:40:07
Calling Puck "news" is kind of interesting, I guess.
2024-09-27 21:55:04
Hezbollah planned for this, and just unveiled MechaNasrallah. He's half robot!
2024-09-28 02:03:08
Pretty sure the Israelis killed the worms as well
2024-09-28 10:41:23
Please do not engage with this dumbass lol. His argument is that Hezbollah now controls Northern Israel because they're bombing it and civilians have been displaced.
2024-09-28 11:08:10
This is NOT over. Hezbollah is attempting to locate his limbs, glue him back together, and reanimate him.
2024-09-28 11:56:38
I'm not sure we can trust hezbollah's word, they are a terrorist organization
2024-09-28 20:13:11
OOPS! NASA mistakenly sent the Starliner back up instead of SpaceX Dragon, and now they're trapped again. Dang. Bad luck.
2024-09-29 09:01:54
As far as the nutcases spamming in here, if the IDF conducts small raids in Lebanon where they enter and leave, this market will be NO and the troops enter market will be YES. If they start a ground offensive, this market will be YES. We went through this last year in Gaza with small scale missions not counting.
2024-09-29 09:14:16
To me this is less likely here because there isn't a hostage scenario. But the short answer is that the intention would be to soften up the enemy and make sure when your major troops enter, they encounter as little resistance as possible. So hypotheticaly, they go in and kill some Hezbollah operatives in a town or something and then leave. Here is a link to the small raids from last year -- [link removed]
2024-09-30 11:19:51
I'm a bit confused what the evidence for Yes is tbh
2024-09-30 12:34:35
I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.
2024-09-30 12:39:02
It's uncanny how much ChatGPT and I agree on disputes lol
2024-09-30 12:50:31
I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""
2024-09-30 13:21:46
Lol, that's funny but not sure that is very compelling. You don't want a "v" in there at all if you want No to win.
2024-09-30 13:22:40
To me, this is now fairly conclusive that the special forces are in there for recond, so then it becomes a question of whether recon counts as "combat operations." It seems 50 Pence has an extremely strong opinion on this question!
2024-09-30 13:28:56
One of the downsides of using an AI is that you can guide it to the answer that you want. This is exactly what you did in that screenshot. Do you have any examples where you were unbiased?
2024-09-30 13:49:11
I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- [link removed]
2024-10-01 12:49:14
Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
2024-10-01 13:03:24
I'm using Gaza as my guidepost. There, the IDF clearly invaded with a large occupying force. Here, it's very unclear what is happening, and all reporting indicating they are entering, doing a raid, and leaving again. If you have evidence that they entered and are staying to try to control territory, then I would agree with you that the market should be a yes. Is there evidence for that?
2024-10-01 20:40:18
It's a tough scene for Yes when the UN, the IDF, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese army all say the same thing
2024-10-01 20:54:30
I heard debate, played it for other people who all heard debate.
2024-10-01 23:52:18
N-word, M-word, S-word, T-word, W-word, A-word, L-word, U-word, E-word, R-word, B-word, V-word, and there's about a dozen more.
2024-10-02 02:42:09
Vance's eyeliner started run right at the end there, hopefully he cleans it up during the commercial break
2024-10-02 02:42:33
And u believe the MSM lies????
2024-10-02 03:08:10
When Walz called JD Vance a "simp" is that a slur or not?
2024-10-02 04:30:37
it should be out by the end of December
2024-10-02 20:47:26
Snooze fest
2024-10-03 00:27:30
Aye aye cap'n
2024-10-03 02:36:39
STOP THE COUNT!!!!!
2024-10-03 10:17:59
Voting No was not an option. The market was proposed before the end-time, so it cannot go No.
2024-10-03 12:31:52
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
2024-10-03 13:07:54
I'm sorry that you don't think 54k is enough exposure. It's not impossible to go Yes. I am just trying to set expectations given the number of pumpers in here shilling nearly hopeless Yes, including yourself.
2024-10-03 13:09:51
As a young boy, I hoped to one day grow up to an opera singer. That got derailed with a freak accident with a pelican a number of years ago, and I briefly entered seminary school, before dropping that and becoming a poker player. After coming in 8th place in the WSOP main event, I retired from poker and became a Polymarket trader full time. Let me know if you require any other explanation.
2024-10-03 13:10:51
Thank you.
2024-10-03 13:15:46
Reminder that the crucial piece of information is from the UN, who said on October 1st: "The information [the UN peacekeepers] have and they've received ... is that they've seen sporadic incursions by the IDF," Dujarric said. "They have not witnessed a full-scale invasion."
2024-10-03 13:18:18
Looks like it's 70% over for the Walz holders atm.
2024-10-03 13:28:35
People bet that Israel was invading, it was an assumption that they would behave like they did in Gaza, going in with thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks/vehicles. That didn't happen. The prediction was wrong, and now you're trying to get bailed out.
2024-10-03 13:29:59
The market was at 75c yesterday and I said people were nuts to price it like that. I think 23% is equally nuts given UMA was nearly unanimous.
2024-10-04 01:00:25
Waste of money tbh
2024-10-04 05:25:52
It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: [link removed]
2024-10-04 05:55:55
Man you guys are absolutely nutso
2024-10-04 05:57:39
You care more about my P&L than I do. I'm just a kid having fun out here.
2024-10-04 06:01:33
Were you in a cave when this also happened last time and they all got BTFO?
2024-10-04 06:03:03
With such unanimous coverage, some videos of this invasion should be readily available. Thus far we've seen a Fox News guy talk about hiking through the woods, and then leaving again back to Israel.
2024-10-04 18:01:19
This price is crazy, man ๐
2024-10-04 22:54:38
After seeing the movie Megalopolis and becoming a much smarter person, I am now even more certain that this is No.
2024-10-04 22:56:41
If Chad wasn't distorting the price, where would this be trading, 8c?
2024-10-05 03:47:55
This is delusional, but its not any more delusional than any of the other delusional arguments.
2024-10-05 11:21:06
Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.
2024-10-05 11:22:36
source: guy who has dealt with 10,000 UMA votes
2024-10-05 11:23:27
i don't like having any shares at all during UMA votes dude
2024-10-05 22:26:46
Are you joking or being serious? This market was trading at $0.75 for yes, pumped up by Chad, when UMA voted against Yess
2024-10-06 08:34:37
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
2024-10-06 18:13:50
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
2024-10-06 18:22:44
[link removed]
2024-10-06 18:28:15
I've only posted my evidence a zillion times that the UN peacekeepers (a neutral party with no incentive to lie) said there had not been an invasion yet on October 1st. This is in addition to Lebanon, the IDF, and the US State Department. And it would be in line with a vote that ALREADY HAPPENED in UMA court. The price is at 63c right now. If Yes loses (and I don't think its a guarantee that it does!), then there is nobody to blame but your own stubbornness.
2024-10-06 19:53:55
Good song!
2024-10-07 00:21:47
Chad needs to be drug-tested before he makes any bets
2024-10-07 00:29:55
I don't reveal until the end, otherwise that is unfair.
2024-10-07 00:41:13
Here's the plan, we get the Yes price back to 70c. UMA will be forced to side with us.
2024-10-07 12:18:46
Can you help me understand this one? The yes side had more whales.
2024-10-07 12:21:29
Batu is the guy that doesn't own much UMA.
2024-10-07 12:22:36
I feel like I was very clear and consistent and posted quite often that yes was very likely to lose. Before the votes were revealed, yes was trading at $0.60 for hours
2024-10-07 12:24:36
Got it, the UMA whales are agnostic on how a market resolves, they're trying to get the right answer.
2024-10-07 12:26:40
The point is that nobody rigged it, and the result was predictable. What happened was, and I posted this also quite often, is that the yes holders only listen to other yesholders. It resulted in catastrophic confirmation bias, driving the price higher on bad information. And then it was becoming clear that the yes holders who were too stubborn to sell even as the price skyrocketed, were going to be very pissed off once reality set in.
2024-10-07 12:28:21
You're right, I didn't specifically lay out the process. In the past, I have been very critical of how concentrated the uma token is and how opaque the voting process is.
2024-10-07 12:29:38
For over a year, my username on this site was "UMA Is A Global Terror Network." For a lot of the reasons that you are pointing out now. Be that as it may, this was not really a uma issue, this was a yes holder issue.
2024-10-07 12:36:21
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
2024-10-07 12:37:23
I think they voted for the actual truthful outcome. I've made that clear from the outset. Yes holders ignored the information
2024-10-07 14:12:20
This is a travesty
2024-10-08 02:58:04
Yes holders spamming the comment section instead of buying, never a good sign lol.
2024-10-08 18:00:15
And if you are one of the people who say "it's definitely not rosa parks, that is impossible", you might be a racist.
2024-10-08 18:02:43
Dav Kleiman invented Bitcoin and then became an NFL reporter
2024-10-09 01:40:36
Lol what a scam from IPSOS
2024-10-09 23:50:13
Yes
2024-10-10 00:47:29
I'm flying a plane over the storm right now I only measured 108 mph.
2024-10-10 12:22:59
It's added. It's "Other."
2024-10-10 12:23:09
It's added already. It is "Other."
2024-10-10 15:13:04
Smh
2024-10-11 00:12:25
[link removed]
2024-10-11 00:13:08
Really funny, just a bunch of protocols and buzzwords and DeFi over and over again.
2024-10-11 02:09:02
I didn't say it had anything to do with anything, it's just funny.
2024-10-11 14:08:37
Not sure what to tell you, you posted a bunch of pumping comments and then sold a large share of Yes. Your actions speak for itself.
2024-10-12 01:14:27
No offense, but I think only an insane person would think that the NFTs should count
2024-10-12 01:48:07
1. Relax. Switch to decaf. This is not that serious. 2. Trump had already launched NFTs prior to this market. There was a clarification in June saying tokens launched before the market would count. What kind of idiot would think that a market would be created that was already Yes many months prior?
2024-10-12 12:21:26
You're an idiot if you think this is important. But you're also too scared to bet at all, so probably best for you to not post at all, as well.
2024-10-12 12:34:06
This is a joke, right? There's no way that someone who has been in a stats class for more than a week would think this is correct.
2024-10-12 14:10:10
Does your mom know you are posting incredibly stupid comments on the Internet?
2024-10-12 14:39:57
The X spaces have gone so well so far, that seems like the best place for them to make their final message to hundreds of millions of voters. The technology is reliable and proven.
2024-10-12 16:00:02
Yawn.
2024-10-12 22:01:43
Michie is there any way to contact you? I'd be interested in having a chat about your take on the markets.
2024-10-12 22:02:59
You can reach me on Twitter as Domahhhh if you want to DM me there. I am also on Discord in the Polymarket discord as Domer.
2024-10-13 12:32:26
holy shit, they did it
2024-10-13 13:00:42
Okay thanks for letting us know. And who is Walz?
2024-10-13 18:56:24
John McCain would be very proud of the bomb Iran bonders.
2024-10-13 21:45:04
You are having trouble with probabilities. Maybe plug your question into ChatGPT and it'll teach you rudimentary stats.
2024-10-14 07:41:56
Whatever Zach has is contagious I guess
2024-10-14 12:50:44
"or a consensus of credible reporting"
2024-10-14 12:58:54
Wow, they have added NBA legend Luol Deng to the WLFI team. That's huge.
2024-10-14 13:06:43
Imagine how braindead you have to be to think anything these idiots are saying is important
2024-10-14 14:38:08
Thinking of switching sides on this one, and still interested in chatting with you about what you think for this election
2024-10-14 15:09:23
Hey, I am @Domahhhh on Twitter, and on Discord I am @Domer in the Polymarket discord.n the
2024-10-15 08:59:08
Michel is a very weird and sensitive guy. I talked to him for a few minutes and told him I wasn't sure Trump would win. He got very mad and then accused me of being racist against the French. Lol. I am not sure he is too good at maths. Maybe he inherited a bunch of money or something.
2024-10-15 23:34:21
It's a dumb bet, but dumb bets are very fun
2024-10-16 01:33:09
KEEP PUSHING!!!!
2024-10-16 11:30:27
It's a compelling argument at first, but according to the gold paper, an LLC Trump controls will have a 22.5 percent ownership stake and will receive the majority of fee revenue. That definitely would make it his coin.
2024-10-16 13:58:31
FYI to No holders, there is an alternate and easier way to bet No on this. So let's say you have $100 that you want to put on No, instead of buying the shares in this market, what you have to do is turn off your phone and computer, take the $100 from your wallet, and put it directly into the trash.
2024-10-16 19:47:04
I'm thinking of switching sides
2024-10-16 19:47:51
I'm tired of rooting for the Decepticons, they always lose. I am switching to Autobots. And that is OFFICIAL.
2024-10-16 20:55:54
I've got gadgets and gizmos aplenty.
2024-10-17 10:19:38
Why are you weirdos so obsessed with losing money?
2024-10-17 10:20:46
Yes will pay out in exactly 13 hours and 45 minutes
2024-10-17 10:23:43
The vote is over, No can't win.
2024-10-17 10:24:19
It's important to me that ppl understand what is happening
2024-10-17 10:29:59
The "Yes" side has already reached a consensus and is now guaranteed to win if you check [link removed] (click on the vote and you can see the results so far). See the timer that says final review on this page? No will pay out as 0 about 5 minutes after that ends. This cannot be stopped. I'm sorry that y'all disagree with the result, but it's over.
2024-10-17 10:33:56
No thanks. I think it's really bad what is happening here. They are deluding themselves.
2024-10-17 10:35:12
No there has not. Someone lied to you.
2024-10-17 11:35:01
Well the one positive to come out of this is there are apparently a lot of Russians on No. It's never a bad thing when Russian drunks lose more money and send it to other countries.
2024-10-17 13:24:03
1. The vote is already over, Yes has reached a consensus and is guaranteed to win. You can check this yourself at [link removed] and clicking on this market. 2. This will pay out as Yes around 5 minutes after the "Final Review" timer above the comments runs out. 3. Many No holders are lying to you on purpose that Polymarket has overturned a UMA vote. It has never happened before ever, and it certainly will not happen here.
2024-10-17 13:37:29
Well I was on No and then time was running short so I switched to Yes. Oh well!
2024-10-17 14:37:11
Just posting again -- 1. The vote is already over, Yes has reached a consensus and is guaranteed to win. You can check this yourself at [link removed] and clicking on this market. 2. This will pay out as Yes around 5 minutes after the "Final Review" timer above the comments runs out. 3. Many No holders are lying to you on purpose that Polymarket has overturned a UMA vote. It has never happened before ever, and it certainly will not happen here.
2024-10-17 14:39:01
Looks like we're in for the next Trump coin fight -- Sinwar is leading Hamas from the afterlife.
2024-10-17 18:25:31
[link removed]
2024-10-17 21:26:19
If y'all can please hurry up and solve your collective psychosis and take this to 99.9, that'd be great. Otherwise the most you're doing is forcing all of us to wait for 8:05pm to get a payout.
2024-10-18 00:27:26
Nice!
2024-10-18 01:11:53
I imagine this will be the last comment posted here, so I just want to say it was a lot of fun. I will see y'all on the next market!
2024-10-19 12:23:39
I think it has a shot
2024-10-20 14:13:42
It would resolve as Yes. The date of resignation doesn't matter. It's the date of the announcement that has to be by the end of the year.
2024-10-22 13:08:31
hold onto your butts, we've got 9 days left
2024-10-22 18:56:15
Theo, with all due respect, you are a total psychopath.
2024-10-22 23:21:56
WOW, this is big: France just outlawed all of its citizens from buying shares of Donald Trump to win the popular vote. Macron today: "Sacre bleu! It's a national embarrassment and we need it to stop."
2024-10-23 19:20:02
Reminder that everyone should buy at least 100 shares of Biden before this market closes. It only costs 10 cents, and it will be a collector's item that you can pass down to your children.
2024-10-26 15:01:46
Get in losers, we're losing
2024-10-26 18:53:58
If they attacked, Centcom will confirm that they attacked.
2024-10-27 13:26:06
So the CNN report is blatantly made up?
2024-10-27 13:28:27
Why are you guys making stuff up?
2024-10-27 13:28:42
He made it up
2024-10-27 13:29:04
How is it "mostly" if they invented it?
2024-10-27 13:41:01
Yes I agree there is a decently large chance that they attack again, which is why the market is so high!
2024-10-28 12:37:07
Very logical!
2024-10-28 17:05:20
Pretty sure this is Yes, but how is it going to be proven?
2024-10-28 18:55:52
If Rodri wins, I will DISPUTE!!!
2024-10-28 21:45:23
SCAM!!!!!!!
2024-10-29 11:23:21
Yawn
2024-10-30 00:12:10
Not sure this expired correctly, but nothing to do about it now I guess
2024-10-30 00:41:55
biden@[link removed]
2024-10-30 20:12:52
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRR
2024-11-01 15:34:12
What if he was released, but he liked it so much he stayed in jail just to hang out?
2024-11-02 15:13:58
Anyone who claims they heard God in that clip either needs to be arrested for scamming, or get their hearing checked. Or maybe they're the messiah reborn. One of those 3.
2024-11-02 20:43:06
It's likely that the murder of Peanut the Squirrel has swayed this 50/50 race back into the hands of Trump. I'm thinking of swithching my vote because of it.
2024-11-02 23:46:05
Smell ya later
2024-11-03 22:58:47
So everyone here thinks Kamala is winning, right?
2024-11-04 15:07:31
MINH was the biggest net winner and was proposed, feel free to dispute
2024-11-05 02:03:06
Nelk Boys can't do anything right, smh
2024-11-05 02:51:00
Remember that Polymarket is not to blame. The NELK BOYS are to blame.
2024-11-07 16:57:02
I appreciate the mostly honest analysis, but I don't think it is honest to say there is a consensus around Oct 24/25. It is a single source (Houthi media, with no proof), repeated in different places citing Houthi media.
2024-11-07 16:58:08
If we have strong proof that the US conducted an attack, but the US is refusing to confirm it (possible, but I think unlikely), then I think the market should be a YES. But there is no remotely strong proof.
2024-11-08 21:14:47
Hopefully everyone is okay
2024-11-11 12:11:08
Setting aside whether it's an embargo or not, article is from MAY. This market begins in October.
2024-11-11 12:13:40
The alleged "embargo" of bulldozers also says it started months ago. It also seems like it would be hard to disentangle embargo from delay. An embargo is a very serious matter.
2024-11-13 00:48:29
The richest guy in the world is not going to become a government employee? That is really shocking
2024-11-13 03:21:46
Goodnight. "The U.S. State Department will not withhold arms from Israel, according to State Department officials, a month after the White House sent a letter to Israel stating the Jewish state had 30 days to improve the humanitarian conditions for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip or be subject to an arms embargo."
2024-11-13 05:29:24
Posting stuff from months ago, smh.
2024-11-15 11:47:19
I was almost sure this happened, was just waiting for the final proof ๐
2024-11-15 15:32:39
It looked like Yes when it happened, but there was no proof. And I said this at the time. Now we got it.
2024-11-15 16:10:42
DryCat would never
2024-11-18 16:02:59
In case you have rocks for brains, this is now free money for Yes and the dispute is now moot.
2024-11-18 16:15:42
Some people clearly need more bullying. You, for instance.
2024-11-18 16:16:37
Dump your losing shares you simpering whiner. Stop making us read your crap.
2024-11-18 16:20:29
Anyone who is literate and still owns no needs to turn off their computer or phone, unplug it from the wall, and set it on fire. You cannot be trusted using electronic equipment.
2024-11-18 16:24:26
Yes
2024-11-18 16:24:49
Bibi Netanyahu already confirmed it.
2024-11-18 22:51:15
Hello rich guys, it's weird for me to beg for something, but I don't have money for nutritious food for my family, if you decide to give me any gift, then you will be blessed for this good deed. I pray every night, I will include you in my prayers, if prayer works you will live a happier life full of health and love. Health and love is the only thing my family has a lot of, it seems to work :) Thank you very much for every dollar, for every penny, in my village we earn the equivalent of about $3-4 a day. If you don't have money like me, it doesn't matter, I'll include free :) in my prayers Thank you to all the good souls.
2024-11-19 14:29:58
When is the launch?
2024-11-19 15:32:22
Smell ya later
2024-11-19 15:36:01
Dang
2024-11-19 16:18:21
Wrestler got BTFO
2024-11-21 12:06:44
Hello rich guys, it's weird for me to beg for something, but now that an arrest warrant has been issued for Netanyahu, I don't have money for nutritious food for my family, if you decide to give me any gift, then you will be blessed for this good deed. I pray every night, I will include you in my prayers, if prayer works you will live a happier life full of health and love. Health and love is the only thing my family has a lot of, it seems to work :) Thank you very much for every dollar, for every penny, in my village we earn the equivalent of about $3-4 a day. If you don't have money like me, it doesn't matter, I'll include free :) in my prayers Thank you to all the good souls
2024-11-21 12:13:03
nah i lost a few hundred bucks, i had offers up
2024-11-21 18:36:11
Dang, I really thought Gaetz would get the job
2024-11-21 19:22:05
Did you post it before you read it?
2024-11-21 20:31:11
Shameful dummies letting Car exit his dumb trade with a profit
2024-11-22 12:24:53
After Gaetz withdrew his name, traders see a 15% chance of his planned nomination being pulled.
2024-11-22 14:31:21
I WILL be suing
2024-11-22 15:58:29
You've been on the site since 2020 and you think this argument is going to work...?
2024-11-22 16:28:32
I can see where you are coming from with the rules, but please, re-read the TITLE of this market, and realize that this argument was never, ever going to work. If the sentencing was pushed back (and it was), then it is going to expire Yes and you will not be able to rules lawyer a cuck.
2024-11-22 16:34:37
Guys, the market title is "Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back?" -- it was pushed back. Time to move on to something with actual importance in your life, instead of arguing over nonsense.
2024-11-24 15:38:37
That is a Senate speech by Tommy Tuberville lol. Surely you are joking.
2024-11-24 15:39:50
It's not. It's a Senate speech, not a nomination. You've lost the plot.
2025-05-11 15:56:58
voi paria doar pe tipul care cred ca va castiga. nu-mi place deloc, dar va castiga, din pacate, si probabil cu o suma mare. sau poate ma insel si el va pierde. aflam saptamana viitoare. Mult Succes tuturor!
2025-05-11 16:12:19
๐ mor...asta este probabil mai inteligent decat ceea ce am facut eu.
2025-05-13 12:54:58
Unibet imi permite doar sa pariez 250 pe Simion. acesta este un site pentru saracii din bucuresti. scuip!
2025-05-13 12:58:42
mama ta a lasat-o deasupra comodei mele azi dimineata cand a plecat
2025-07-18 17:07:11
seems like the clarification is in-line with the spirit, but maybe goes against a literal reading it?
2025-07-18 17:13:24
Nice.
2025-07-18 20:16:21
I agree with you, but the market revolves around the title, NOT the responsibilities. And he still has the title.
2025-07-18 20:23:32
You're entitled to that opinion, I think you will (probably) find that you're in a deep minority of getting people to agree with you on that position, Clems.
2025-07-18 23:57:32
I agree with you, except it is exactly the opposite of what you just said
2025-07-19 01:11:11
I proposed it for yes
2025-07-19 05:44:56
the board replaced their ceo bc of a viral video, which i think was the whole point of putting up this market. but polymarket decided that the market wasn't about that, it was instead about a title technicality (and who knows if they're even technically correct)
2025-07-20 04:02:40
seems like a very sketchy resolution to me
2025-07-22 18:49:55
Shhh, let them cook.
2025-07-22 19:32:08
Next update: Witkoff will be doing Zoom calls later this week with people IN EUROPE, but will not be attending in-person.
2025-07-23 16:30:38
:(
2025-07-23 17:34:15
Dear sweet lord baby jesus, I know MCU sucks lately and audiences hate this garbage superhero slop, but please let this 1960s one where they're wearing pastel blue be an exception. I ask you sweet little infant jesus, please let families want to see a Marvel movie about this dumb family. Please let Stan Lee's soul find peace after years of absolute F tier garbage. In your name I pray, amen.
2025-07-24 12:38:51
I've placed my complete trust in DeezNuttzz and put my whole balance into Yes
2025-07-31 16:54:23
Genuinely no idea what Polymarket will do here, but I think "No" is ultimately correct. The attack began way before the market was put up.
2025-08-01 02:29:31
Mexico is very likely to resolve Yes, don't get scammed by people pumping & dumping their junk shares.
2025-08-01 19:31:03
dexnumberex sold 421 Yes at 32.4
2025-08-03 04:51:44
The user you are talking about just lost $30k a couple weeks ago due to an (actual) UMA scam. As opposed to your non-existent one.
2025-08-03 05:58:17
Fake news
2025-08-04 01:05:20
The Yes scammers are frothing at the mouth, and think if they spam their stupid scam 8 million times, then maybe it will have a chance. They got 0% of the vote last time. And will get 0% of the vote again. If you want to try and steal money, then rob an old lady or something, and stop bothering us.
2025-08-04 17:28:57
The only ambiguous thing in the room with us rn is the quality of your education
2025-08-04 17:29:33
Good week for my haters if they really release it this week. I'm going to get BTFO.
2025-08-04 19:24:38
The life of a red owner is one of calm equanimity, broken up by occasional (and unwanted) bouts of things actually happening.
2025-08-06 03:04:38
gigachadsolana admitted he threw it to win this bet
2025-08-06 03:05:15
@gigachadsolana can you please refund my loss? I am now out of money. Please sir. That was all my money left that I bet on this
2025-08-06 19:32:52
Popular NYC businessman Donald Trump has indicated he may get involved in this race!
2025-08-07 17:52:11
Plot twist: GPT-6 is due out August 30th.
2025-08-08 21:54:00
To anyone arguing he said Armenian, you will not win, and please do something more productive with your life.
2025-08-08 22:34:22
If you're new here, my advice would be: don't get sucked into stupid scam cults like this. You will lose money, become angry, and then deeply regret getting involved.
2025-08-09 03:50:17
After 8pm is considered a date, and the expectation from the man (in this instance, Putin) would be sex.
2025-08-10 20:31:22
TRUMP!!!!!!!
2025-08-10 20:32:01
Tip: bet on Seabiscuit in the 7th race at Saratoga
2025-08-11 17:58:28
If Trump wants to take over major US cities with the military because of woke libs, then that needs to happen. I trust Trump
2025-08-11 20:48:15
Y'all got any more of those deployments? Really need one
2025-08-12 03:52:38
Who is walking the plank and proposing for Yes?
2025-08-12 04:46:43
I wanted to. sad!
2025-08-12 05:36:43
Pope Leo at 26c is starting to be good value, might buy some Yes. I bought a bit of No when he was higher.
2025-08-14 04:25:44
Even in the middle of the night, these Swifties are watching the crap out of this. Lol.
2025-08-15 01:36:14
Stuff that happens before markets start do not count, this has been adjuticated countless times
2025-08-15 04:19:47
Alright, just giving you a friendly heads up that things that happen before the market is created 100% do not count.
2025-08-16 17:39:48
๐ช Musicco ๐ช
2025-08-16 18:06:10
I imagined this game being pretty silly to watch, and it is far worse than I imagined
2025-08-17 19:46:08
Eric had become a hurricane 5 hours before this market launched. It is not included in this market.
2025-08-17 19:46:18
And by Eric I mean Erin lol.
2025-08-17 20:24:52
I think it will literally have to be AI or Artificial Intelligence or some very, very close synonym (my guess is AGI would count). Grok or ChatGPT or even something esoteric like "The Singularity" are distinct from AI. Btw, I will bet my life and your life that Grok will not be named Time's Person of the Year.
2025-08-17 20:25:46
Well they only have to add a clarification when it becomes controversial, I am just letting you know what is going to happen (so that we don't run into the same controversy).
2025-08-18 01:08:04
Should happen automatically at some point ๐
2025-08-18 06:47:02
Yes
2025-08-19 14:25:46
Lol. A scam and a joke.
2025-08-19 23:57:20
No offense intended when I say this --- but this pasty, fat, racist incel is going to sneak in so many candy bars, I just know it. He's going to have one of those looping camera shots like in Saw when he's "sleeping" and secretly chow down on some uncooked packages of Ramen noodles, including snorting the flavor packets like it's cocaine. You can see how pathetic this idiot is in his eyes. This guy may have physically aged into a man, but he is still a small boy in mind and in spirit. He does not have the self-control to last 4 days without some fries/chips with lots of salt. Let alone 10 days. 40 days? Fuhgeddaboutit. Any winning of this "challenge" will be entirely fraudulent.
2025-08-21 17:06:27
The No side has a far bigger P&L, what are you talking about?
2025-08-22 22:11:16
This market was created July 8th, 2025. The interview didn't exist. It was conducted July 24th and 25th. Obviously it is not a "previously unreleased" Epstein file.
2025-08-22 22:55:53
I have wasted tons of money on this site trying to fight for truthful expirations. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. You will notice that the other prediction site did not budge an inch on this release, because they actually stick to "previously unreleased" files.
2025-08-24 15:06:13
Market was already a huge joke, and is now an even bigger joke. He is obviously not allowed to eat vitamins, per his own rules (and the market rules). The guy tweeted 20x he would only consume water and electrolytes. Even saying all of that, it is dangerous to bet on No because apparently somebody at Polymarket is friends with this dumbass white supremacist, and is determined to let him cheat his way to a Yes win.
2025-08-24 15:19:16
Like I said, someone at Polymarket (your "contact") is friends with you, and is basically letting you break the rules. The fact that they're secretly communicating with you, and not telling the users this is a whole different and bigger problem. Look...nobody forced you to write these rules Miles. You wrote them yourself. You broke the rules that you created for yourself. Why is that the fault of the No holders betting your stupid ass would fail at this task? They were right. You are failing again and again and again at a challenge that YOU CRAFTED. If you want to do this challenge to lose weight and prove something to yourself, more power to you, but this market is trash now and a joke, and should be No.
2025-08-24 17:05:41
You are very correct, I have been adamant that betting on No is very dangerous because this seems quite a bit rigged.
2025-08-25 12:47:56
How's it going, what's the scoop here?
2025-08-25 21:15:36
Broke7863
2025-09-04 18:51:10
I think No is a dumb bet. It's likely a losing bet because Polymarket will simply clarify that it's going to be Yes no matter what. But I also think No is mostly correct after reading more about the shooter. I think for a market labeled "fact check", it is absolutely unclear to the world if the shooter identified as transgender at the time of the shootings. The person was definitively transgender at some prior point. They legally changed their name and gender years ago. But their journal writings in the weeks prior to the shooting indicate a consistent questioning of that identity. And Robin/Robert undertook (apparently) 0 medical treatments. So in the absence of any medical treatments, then a transgender identity is entirely self-imposed. It is how you present yourself to the world. "I identify as female" etc. The shooter wrote straight up in the weeks prior to the shooting that they "knew they weren't a woman." That is not something a transgender person writes. To me the answer is very unclear that the person still considered themselves transgender, and I think it's wrong to expire it at 100c for Yes. Prediction markets can really fail in the face of nuanced situations.
2025-09-04 19:35:18
I just like betting on reality, and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. By the way, in the videos released before the attack, Robin looks and sounds like a guy. Deep voice, dressed like a guy, etc. It seems a bit clear to me that this person is not trying to present themselves as a woman in any capacity.
2025-09-06 07:34:25
Sure, I will donate $1 to be split among all No holders if this loses
2025-09-07 09:11:53
I don't get it...how is this Yes? Nothing has changed in the past few days. Tesla has made no announcements. The Robotaxi website says "Invite-only." The APP is now publicly available, but not the service.
2025-09-07 10:03:31
You couldn't be more wrong. If you click "App Support" from the Robotaxi app, it takes you to that page.
2025-09-13 03:34:22
I don't get it. It's a very large, very clear missile. It's not some technicality. The missiles on the Bulsae 4 travel 10 kilometers, and are used heavily against Ukraine. Picture of this -- [link removed]
2025-09-13 03:36:31
Why wouldn't this count? Because a missile has to be even bigger and travel 50 kilometers or something? Seems totally arbitrary to decide one missile counts, but not another. The market doesn't make any distinction on "major" or "large" or size or distance. These are serious, large missiles. They're not ICBMs, but they're also not small either
2025-09-13 19:10:06
Deleted my comment. Embarrassing to get tricked by the world's dumbest people. If anyone legit bought off me posting, lmk on Discord.
2025-09-16 19:00:52
They're just very good friends. I say "I love you" to my best male friend as well. We rarely have sex. I wouldn't call him a "romantic partner."
2025-09-21 12:08:27
What do the ones who stay in say?
2025-09-21 12:12:33
Damn. That is exactly the coin Adams would own.
2025-09-22 18:52:22
This was a scam, and a pretty corrupted one at that. Their clarification doesn't even make any sense. You can argue that it was INDIRECTLY targeting Moraes, and that you want to change the rules of your market on the fly to include indirect sanctions. Saying it is a direction sanction of Moraes is a lie. Sorry to any noobies who lost money.
2025-09-22 21:19:23
The idea that anything these morons are saying can at all be used to expire a market on something as serious as the cause of autism is very disturbing
2025-09-22 21:56:39
Anyone who owns Yes: after you lose, make sure to put on your dunce cap and sit in the corner and think about your mistakes.
2025-09-23 14:59:01
He's reached the halfway point
2025-09-24 04:14:37
The Intolerant Left Never Apologizes, I Am Not Sure Why I Thought He Would. He Is Probably Wearing An Antifa Shirt Below His Suit. Who Watches This Crap? Not Me. Apologize Like A Man, You Bum Jimmy Kimmel. You Freak. You Left Wing Intolerant Freak.
2025-09-24 21:30:30
It's honestly really gross what happened to this market. Cashing out my No. Not going to profit any more off this crap.
2025-09-24 21:35:17
they already clarified a week ago that GAAP earnings count (if non-GAAP aren't provided). so they just reversed themselves for unclear reasons, and then now this market is currently worthless (unless they reverse themselves again).
2025-09-25 20:17:38
Well that's a beat. Literally and figuratively. Yes holders were scammed here.
2025-10-04 03:53:06
No thanks.
2025-10-04 05:57:43
Man those were terrible odds that y'all were putting up there, i kept scratching my head figuring I was missing something. Takaichi was the favorite, but she was at 15c lol
2025-10-04 12:29:32
Ay, papi
2025-10-05 06:19:22
Sanseito out, now just need Komeito to reject her lol
2025-10-05 14:22:59
The album stinks, and Taylor Swift is MAGA and just...ew. They will give it to Bad Bunny, our Latino King.
2025-10-06 17:57:27
Bow down before your queen.
2025-10-06 18:09:31
Libs piling into No
2025-10-08 23:30:12
Lol, not sure if 25k of cheap No is a good idea or just a waste of money, but sure why not.
2025-10-09 00:38:37
It's the same crap over and over. Shouldn't be yes yet, but the scam gang will force it through based on flimsy evidence. Polymarket unfortunately usually sides with these borderline criminals.
2025-10-09 01:12:50
I did not say this sarcastically.
2025-12-02 17:53:23
congrats, you bought 123 shares of coal
2025-12-05 17:31:50
Two weeks of cope left. Enjoy!
2025-12-08 20:00:53
The final 15 people on earth who still believe that Avatar will be a big hit are all in this market
2025-12-08 21:50:16
Scientists are still trying to find the absolute smallest gap between 99.9999999 and 100. They're researching it as we speak. If I get a final answer, I will let you know.
2025-12-10 17:23:17
The bonders seem really stupid to me this month, but they'll probably win anyway.
2025-12-10 19:07:20
The 25bp bondorrrrrrrrrrrrrs came so close to losing this, razor tight decision. Oh well, I'll get you goofballs next time.
2025-12-12 03:22:16
Alright I pushed it to 97, gl
2025-12-12 16:44:50
I've run a fairly sophisticated modeling of box office and it indicates that Avatar 3 is only set to open with $16 million in its opening weekend, which is $131m less than Wicked
2025-12-17 13:32:51
Lol, scamming fool. Stop lying.
2025-12-17 14:55:29
That is nonsense Bushwalker. Because I've since upgraded my forecast (through very rigorous models and mathematics, including statistical forecasting) to 16.5 million for Friday through Sunday. The forecast for Sunday has improved and I'm anticipationg an additional 25,000 people will watch it that day. Don't ever slander me again that I am predicting $16m. I am not. It is $16.5m.
2025-12-18 01:33:02
No files
2025-12-19 20:27:57
I can't imagine the thought process of ppl bonding today. Sure it seems like it'll happen, but they have never, ever released any of these after promising a zillion times ๐
2025-12-25 17:34:22
You will think I am making it up, but I am not. I was dining next to Kevin Hassett once at a restaurant in DC. The woman he was with got up to use the toilet. He took what looked like a forest green crayola out of his pants pocket, and put the whole friggin thing in his mouth and started chewing. I shit you not.
2025-12-28 00:01:58
We got scammed on this one boys. Onto the next.
2026-01-03 17:55:37
Pretty sure this should be yes after Trump said approximately 20 times in his press conference that the US now controls Venezuela.
2026-01-03 17:56:42
Well I think an in-and-out mission is clearly not meant to "establish control" by itself, and that is what peopl were arguing. But the President saying over and over and over that we now control the country completely flips the equation.
2026-01-06 14:18:11
shots fired
2026-01-07 02:10:47
you just posted fifteen sentences of rambling esoteric nonsense and you're talking about autism? okayyyyyyyy
2026-01-12 19:50:06
I hope his 2026 calendar is about 36 months long.
2026-01-15 23:04:14
It is free money if you're an idiot
2026-01-16 15:30:28
Smell ya later, Hassett.
2026-01-16 16:27:20
Hassett dead enders are keeping him above 5c for whatever stupid reason. They hate money.
2026-01-16 16:44:10
Oh F off clown, nobody here forced Trump to say he didn't want to pick Hassett as Fed Chair. Trump said that all by himself. It turns out that smiling bimbo is better off lying on TV on Fox News daily instead of trying to apply his pea brain to leading a highly sophisticated central bank.
2026-01-17 06:16:07
This is very dead. Won't even come close to $400m. See y'all for Avatar 4.
2026-01-17 13:38:57
Buy as much as the worthless crap as you want buddy, nobody is stopping you.
2026-01-17 23:31:40
*Loud fart*
2026-01-21 05:15:32
Anyone buying Shelton needs a lobotomy
2026-01-21 14:52:22
He just said he is not picking a woman, and these idiots will STILL keep buying their bimbo queen Judy.
2026-01-21 17:30:41
I'm not even betting on a shutdown you doofus. It's a hedge.
2026-01-23 20:45:36
They haven't explicitly stated, but all of the precedent and their past rulings indicate that it would resolve as NO.
2026-01-30 07:36:36
The Judy Shelton freaks are still buying this crap by the bucketload. Someone get out the tranquilizer darts. They need to be put back into their cages.
2026-01-30 23:15:51
too easy.
2026-01-31 15:14:17
Another polymarket scam in broad daylight, very funny.
2026-02-02 12:22:19
That Shingleshaker guy is my wife's uncle. Very weird guy, carries his cane around everywhere.
2026-02-02 12:28:47
I KNEW IT! Those corrupt top-hatted freaks rigged it yet again. Using a helpless animal as part of their scheme is unconscionable.
2026-02-03 17:03:10
Well, well, well the most predictable thing on the planet has happened
2026-02-03 18:08:56
that drama would cause an exploitable price spike.
2026-02-03 21:28:55
If we can just have him talk for the next 7.5 hours, we'll be good
2026-02-03 21:33:31
not really no, lol. no idea why people copytrade me assuming that its what i think will happen.
2026-02-07 18:07:45
Lots of incredibly mad people in the comments, must be doing something right
2026-02-16 00:23:28
This is some scammy black mirror shiiii to expire the February 14th shutdown market to No, then create a new market that says "the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026."
2026-02-27 18:36:27
People were high on meth this morning. Today traded at 10%, and tomorrow at 23% lmao.
2026-02-27 22:17:34
Lol, bad time to form an opinion 60 seconds before Hegseth opens his mouth
2026-02-28 01:41:48
The people still buying today need their head examined, and the tomorrow buyers should start queueing for exams
2026-02-28 05:47:47
What are you babbling about?
2026-02-28 08:47:26
I am not trying to pump nor claim to be an expert, but from what I have read so far, the US attacked Iran first. They hit Tehran with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Israel doesn't even have those types of missiles. Now...it could be that it was basically a simultaneous attack and it goes to 50/50.
2026-02-28 08:56:09
Are those not explosions from Tomahawks from a US ship...?
2026-02-28 18:35:58
Just spent like an hour researching this, and I am pretty darn certain it should expire to 50/50. I think the US and Israel struck concurrently starting around 1:10am in various locations in Iran simultaneously. The extent to which US may have struck 90 seconds before Israel or Israel struck 90 seconds before the US...like i don't see how this matters at all?? It is a totally pointless distinction that is not what this market is about.
2026-02-28 19:05:41
@grok is this true???
2026-02-28 19:11:04
Khamenei is alive and well, and leading the figtht against the infidels. I just facetimed with him and showed him this market, and we had a good laugh.
2026-03-01 18:59:35
It seems very clear to me that 50/50 is the likely answer and the correct answer. You guys are really deluding yourselves for not very good reasons. The official US statement says that the attacks were simultaneous at around 1:15am eastern time.
2026-03-04 13:46:38
Even assuming that he has already been picked, is there a 60% chance that he survives long enough for the announcement?
2026-03-04 17:19:30
It is NOT OVER! Shelton stay strong
2026-03-04 20:38:37
Yeah the regime that murders thousands of people including children, and has turned their country into a broke garbage dump, is super popular with the people of Iran.
2026-03-06 14:58:03
Mojtaba lived a good life and he will be missed. Sure, yeah I will admit he was an impotent, corrupt, dumb tyrant who tortured his own people. He was not without faults. But the real Mojtaba was a down to earth chap who was in a dynasty football team with me the past few years. He loved a few beers and his Chicago Bears. We will have to find someone to takeover his team. RIP buddy.
2026-03-17 17:07:40
Same people who replaced jim Carrey replaced Benyamin Netanyahu. The reason I bet no is bc we will never prove it. They are too allusive and they control reality. The Doppler gangers are among us and not much we can do about it bc regular ppl refuse to educate themselves on this.
2026-04-03 17:58:04
if no boot hit the ground, then No must be crowned
2026-04-15 20:25:54
Very different rules. Maduro is still officially the head of state in Venezuela. You can see this on Venezuela's official government website, the UN website, or from Delcy herself.
2026-04-16 02:17:26
Sorry but what is "rules trickery" about this? It's not esoteric knowledge, or hidden. People just assume stupid stuff.
2026-04-16 03:54:26
I don't get it, Delcy is the reality of the situation...? An acting and largely powerless figurehead...? If you really want to obsess over the 'reality' of the situation, isn't Trump far more of the leader of Venezuela right now than Delcy is...? The reality is you have to choose a leadership type. Either you choose 'de jure' or you choose 'de facto.' Delcy is neither one. Maduro is one. The US is another.
2026-04-17 17:40:12
Ppl just love whining about every stupid thing on the planet. Edmundo won the election and got the most votes, and we know this for a fact because of the actas, but they ignored and overturned the result (in fact, never published them) and swore in Maduro again as he became a full fledged dictator.
2026-04-23 14:11:47
Isn't it obviously No? Why is this at 8c?
2026-05-07 06:36:12
After looking at the handwriting analysis and the fact that Epstein has said a very very specific phrase in the note in earlier correspondence, this seems almost certain to be written by him. But the rules are way too strict, and create an unrealistically high bar. So I guess it may expire as No, which strikes me as a failed market, and really bad rules.
2026-05-08 21:23:58
They really screwed up this market. The answer to the question is obviously yes, but the fine print included a clause that made it impossible to win.
2026-05-08 23:01:02
I don't like bonding stuff that I disagree with, just in case ppl come to their senses. Plus, maybe new reporting will come out or something.
2026-05-09 08:52:57
That's crazy that a mutual, all-encompassing ceasefire was enough for a market titled "ceasefire."
2026-05-15 03:45:49
No he's lying, through the end of the day on May 15th
2026-05-15 07:14:18
Scared of what? Losing money? No. The market is about Powell's exit. Not Warsh's entry. Disparate events.
2026-05-15 21:21:08
4 years ago, the Fed: Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15th, 2026
2026-05-15 21:21:41
Today, the Fed: Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ended, and he was voted Chair Pro Tempore
2026-05-16 22:50:07
He's a great PM and won't quit, obviously
2026-05-18 03:43:14
Do you also believe in Santa?
2026-06-10 16:40:32
If you're trying to desperately dump all of them, I'll buy the 147k No at 80/you buying 147k yes at 20.
2026-06-19 02:32:39
Smell ya later.
2026-06-19 05:29:50
Shoulda bought those shares at 20 cents
2026-06-19 15:49:52
Don't. I'm an idiot. Just lucky.
2026-07-05 17:39:43
USA haters having meltdowns today, you hate to see it.
2026-07-30 08:23:38
It would be such a sketchy resolution to expire this market -- about a very important topic -- because of a SOUTHCOM Facebook post from two weeks ago that contains photo op pictures of commanders taking a boat tour. The bar for evidence on this market is extraodinarily high for a reason.
2026-07-31 15:44:40
After researching a lot more, I think this was all training. The US forces are described as "instructors from US Special Boat Team 22." The events shown in the SOUTHCOM post are described as "bilateral training" where they would "exchange operational tactics" to update Ecuadorian military doctrine and improve their preparedness. The SOUTHCOM post describes that there is a "joint presence" of US soldiers and Ecuadorian soldiers, which communicates that it is some degree lower than "joint operations"/"joint patrols."
2026-08-08 18:28:05
Late to the party, barely have any shares
2026-08-12 19:45:09
Lol
2026-08-12 21:20:22
Did exactly as expected and goes from 75 to 50 to 75
2026-08-14 15:19:35
The market is misleading, because he's extremely likely to be convicted of homicide but it's unlikely to happen by the end of July.
2026-08-18 13:40:54
pink impala, with a -$220 P&L whining incessantly about the embarrassing Russian army completely failing at every opportunity