Account Information
Name:
denizz
Pseudonym:
Illustrious-Spectacles
Created:
2024-09-04 08:13:13
Last Activity:
2 hours ago
Tier:
Tier 0
X:
@denizz_poly
Total Profit
$2,468,875
Blockchain trace (5)
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 seed denizz |
recipient, seed, sender, user | Polygon | USDC.e | â | 29 |
| 0x18639b3a9cd2feb9cff3c07df6cf83e3a77bc2a3 seed denizz |
recipient, seed | Polygon | USDC | â | 1 |
| 0x48279da406daa429f521cd5e516287fcecdc231f | recipient | Polygon | USDC | â | 13 |
| 0xde54541ed129138c79566762bc88d65eae82de21 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | â | 12 |
| 0x6c34d6bd0246ca621fe3bdc8fe917af5bda46323 | sender, user | Polygon | USDC | â | 3 |
Stats
Portfolio value
$1,496,057.53
Markets traded
995
Trades
991
Largest win
$807,301.82
Profile views
199,949
Join date
2024-09-04 08:13:13
All-time rank
58
All-time PnL
$2,468,875.12
All-time volume
$99,903,092.77
All-time profit
$2,596,226.44
Lifetime volume
$99,288,319.55
PnL series latest
$2,593,917.80
PnL series start
$2,568,545.20
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$5.96
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 1642063.325575 | $807,301.82 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 1389253.374464 | $382,599.07 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 544965.215069 | $318,129.61 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 3654419.684037 | $-154,576.82 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Yes | 403917.954557 | $-100,540.75 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 1183444.040145 | $-100,303.36 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 483009.8841 | $0.76 | $0.94 | $451,614.24 | $84,912.65 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 370469.8044 | $0.74 | $0.85 | $316,751.68 | $44,092.20 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 116452.8547 | $0.82 | $0.95 | $111,212.48 | $15,838.29 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 64339.1003 | $0.76 | $0.94 | $60,800.45 | $11,676.52 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 48790.3816 | $0.65 | $0.82 | $40,203.27 | $8,414.73 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 1642063.325575 | $807,301.82 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 1389253.374464 | $382,599.07 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 544965.215069 | $318,129.61 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 534877.484459 | $284,618.26 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 630022.174444 | $250,559.75 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 63.29 | $16.46 |
| 3 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 8.1 | $2.11 |
| 3 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 4.82 | $1.25 |
| 3 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 1.49 | $0.39 |
| 3 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 14.07 | $3.66 |
Recent trades (991)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 hours ago | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 63.29 |
| 3 hours ago | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 8.1 |
| 3 hours ago | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 4.82 |
| 3 hours ago | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 1.49 |
| 3 hours ago | BUY | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | $0.26 | 14.07 |
Comments
2024-09-27 22:42:06
According to Reuters; Members of Hezbollah have been unable to reach Senior Leaders, including but not limited to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, by Phone since the Israeli Strike on the Command Bunker in the Suburbs of Beirut.
2024-10-04 14:55:12
that's untrue. the IDF doesn't stop fighting on Shabbat
2024-10-04 19:00:15
I've been a skeptic of "yes", but I now believe that this market should resolve to "yes". The main point of contention is whether the Israeli operation intends to control territory in Lebanon. Israeli officials told CNN on Oct. 1 that there would be âno long-term occupationâ of Lebanese territory. This certainly suggests that they intend short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Today, the Israeli state broadcaster Kan reported that the IDF was âstarting to gain operational control over the Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon where the forces of the 98th and 36th Divisions are operating.â Kan reports directly from the Israeli security apparatus and this would have been approved by the military censor. (https://x.com/ItayBlumental/status/1842189744832184378) The notion that Israel does not seek control over areas in Lebanon is becoming increasingly hard to sustain.
2024-10-04 19:47:42
In addition to Kan and CNN, Walla also reported on Israeli intent to establish operational control. (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) This looks like a consensus of credible reporting on the matter.
2024-10-04 21:38:13
Only 1 of those 3 sources was considered during the first September market debate. So there was no consensus of credible reporting found at that time. Now, we have 3 sources available speaking to the intent issue directly, enough to call a consensus together with other context. Where's the contradiction?
2024-10-05 09:56:33
31 cent spread is frustrating
2024-10-08 16:42:59
"Following long period in which contact was lost with Hamas' leader, Israeli officials say Arab media report claiming he's alive is incorrect and his fate remains uncertain"
2024-10-08 17:44:09
By the way, Gallant's trip to Washington is canceled/suspended because Bibi doesn't like the US doing everything thru Gallant. Unrelated to the attack on Iran
2024-10-08 17:55:07
old
2024-10-08 18:38:39
Gallant's trip to Washington has been postponed until after Bibi's call with Biden.
2024-10-08 18:40:37
Gallant's trip bein canceled is just the usual Bibi-Gallant turf war
2024-10-08 18:45:21
why?
2024-10-08 19:10:25
Yawn
2024-10-08 19:10:58
Nearby
2024-10-08 19:29:18
no
2024-10-10 13:58:00
they're specifically meeting to authorize the retaliation against Iran
2024-10-17 13:10:23
I would argue that this market is intended to resolve to no in the case where Sinwar dies, regardless of what happens to his body, but I guess we'll see.
2024-10-19 10:46:05
"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory." I'm sorry, what?
2024-10-22 10:22:08
Worst Mideast rules I've seen period
2024-10-24 10:29:26
No announcement from CENTCOM yet (if they're even the cause of this)
2024-10-24 10:42:41
The Houthis alone won't produce a consensus of credible reporting. Likely need CENTCOM to confirm that it was their explosion.
2024-10-24 11:47:09
@Aquati Last week they did a "weekly update" including all military actions.
2024-10-24 15:34:52
@Aquati the weekly update wouldn't be due til tomorrow evening
2024-10-25 00:53:42
"Also in the past week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed 15 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS), Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). These Iranian-supplied weapons, launched episodically by the Houthis and Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs) over several days during the week, posed a significant risk to United States, allies, and partner forces, as well as civilians in the region. The weapons systems were downed by a combination of U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets deployed to the region." Some of these interceptions were presumably in Yemeni airspace, especially the surface-to-air missile interceptions.
2024-10-25 01:26:18
The #1 reason why not is that this refers to October 18-24, not exclusively after the 21. But US military action in Yemen has likely happened after the 21 and will continue to happen. .
2024-10-25 01:32:29
@based for the record missile interceptions certainly count as "use of force ... on Yemeni ... airspace". Although the US also does ground strikes in Yemen, which are easier to confirm.
2024-10-26 20:43:30
Not exactly considering CENTCOM eliminated SAMs in Yemeni airspace last week, but we can't quite prove it.
2024-10-28 10:44:01
I thought that was all Houthi media. But I removed the previous comment because I don't think we can dismiss these reports just because CENTCOM didn't confirm.
2024-10-28 10:52:49
Shaharah might not exactly be "Houthi media" but they are Houthi aligned
2024-10-29 16:28:21
Tribal sources reported on Monday that a drone, believed to be American, targeted a vehicle carrying a number of people at dawn on Monday in Hadramaut Valley, eastern Yemen.
2024-10-29 16:29:57
https://www.almashhadnews.com/294296
2024-10-29 18:36:02
https://shafaq.com/en/World/Suspected-US-drone-strike-targets-al-Qaeda-member-in-Yemen-s-Hadhramaut-province
2024-10-29 23:40:17
Government of SE Yemen denied
2024-10-30 22:20:18
We have an increasing number of alleged air strikes but not conclusive proof
2024-10-31 16:42:17
What "Yemeni source" is he referring to? There's nothing in Arabic media
2024-10-31 17:58:03
SABA didn't report the target
2024-11-01 02:31:32
that's because they did
2024-11-02 03:29:03
By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393
2024-11-02 03:39:41
Additionally, we've had credible reports of 2 air raids in Hodeidah city and 1 drone strike against Al Qaeda in Hadramaut, but with less weight of reporting.
2024-11-02 04:30:16
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED): "On 25 October 2024, suspected US forces (unclear whether warship or aircraft unspecified) conducted 8 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Jah (Bayt Al Faqiah) and At Tawr area in At Tuhayta district (coded to Al Jah) (Bayt Al Faqiah, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. US forces did not claim the strikes."
2024-11-02 04:35:17
"Local sources had previously reported to Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening." https://www.aden-tm.net/news/304971
2024-11-02 04:40:21
Additional independent Yemeni reports: https://www.4may.net/news/125846 https://x.com/khabaragency/status/1849551051730362674
2024-11-02 04:40:50
I'm not responding to you yet, just listing sources in the thread.
2024-11-02 04:41:58
" Last Friday, American and British fighter jets carried out 6 raids on Ansar Allah sites, including a farm in the Al-Jah area in the Bayt Al-Faqih district (southeast of Hodeidah), according to what a source in the local authority in Hodeidah Governorate told Sputnik at the time." https://sarabic.ae/20241031/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-1094338405.html
2024-11-02 04:46:28
It specifies "credible reporting" not "credible Western reporting". ACLED is Western, however. We have pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi reporting, as well as foreign and domestic sources. We have at least the five independent sources that I listed.
2024-11-02 04:50:30
That is untrue. Consensus refers to having a critical mass of (credible) reporting. It doesn't have to include governmental sources. We have pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi sources here tho.
2024-11-02 04:52:01
Unless we're allowing the posibility of aliens here, it would have to be Operation Prosperity Guardian. Saudi Arabia hasn't done air raids since the truce 2 years ago. We have multiple sources positing American.
2024-11-02 04:55:05
I was arguing your points for the benefit of anyone reading. A press release from CENTCOM would be nice but it's not necessary here.
2024-11-02 05:04:59
I think ultimately this is a consensus of credible reporting. I may give it the weekend to see if CENTCOM puts out their bulletin finally but they are spotty about it.
2024-11-02 05:08:47
As far as the price being only 90, the 3 alleged air raids previously discussed in the chat all have not enough sourcing to resolve on.
2024-11-02 05:14:59
I tend to think it would have been brought up in the chat like the others if there was much awareness. I only found out when I pulled the ACLED data and it was quite a chore to chase down the confirmatory sources.
2024-11-02 05:17:05
(Airstrikes in Yemen aren't as big news as one might think.)
2024-11-02 05:21:05
Sure, we'll see what happens if it comes down to a dispute.
2024-11-02 14:28:49
There are at least 5 independent reports on the airstrikes from the night of Oct 24/25, which I posted in my previous comment thread. These include pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi outlets, as well as foreign and domestic outlets. This is a consensus of credible reporting. However, I am holding off proposing yes for a short while because doing so might lead to a dispute. If the US claims any recent activity, that would obviously avoid the issue entirely.
2024-11-03 13:39:49
why are you selling no?
2024-11-03 16:30:36
csb
2024-11-04 12:52:50
which?
2024-11-04 16:07:49
This is an earlier version of that 4may report that doesn't have the problematic photo: https://adennews.net/155133
2024-11-04 17:33:57
More details on the airstrikes of Oct 24/25 from Al Ain (Abu Dhabi): "Local sources had previously informed Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy had bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening. The sources said that the bombing targeted tunnels to hide missiles and drones that the militias dug on palm farms" https://al-ain.com/article/houthi-militias-armed-militia
2024-11-05 18:19:53
Fifth alleged air raid since Oct. 22: "On 30 October 2024, suspected US forces conducted 2 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Hudaydah - Al Hudaydah International Airport (Al Hawak, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. CENTCOM did not claim the attack."
2024-11-06 15:18:49
There were already about 5 air raids since Oct 22 and they're going to continue until the Houthis stop bombing shipping, which will happen only when there is a Gaza ceasefire.
2024-11-06 15:28:56
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/06/us-syria-iraq-isis-islamic-state-strikes-death-toll
2024-11-06 15:29:54
"the first couple of days and weeks where Trump took office we can see a clear decrease in attacks and activity in the middle east." factually inaccurate
2024-11-06 15:43:47
Don't worry about me. I recommend caution when it comes to MidEast markets since you seem to be new to that.
2024-11-06 22:39:58
Thanks. There is enough info available about the Oct 24/25 air raid to resolve this to yes IMO. I'm just waiting for the next CENTCOM statement to see if they claim anything, before going the consensus of cred reporting route.
2024-11-06 23:48:27
Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain are both first tier Arabic language sources. Plus there are several lesser sources.
2024-11-07 02:40:36
There were about 5 air raids since Oct. 22 per Yemeni media. We need either the US to claim responsibility or to have credible reporting consensus for at least one. There isn't that much reporting from Yemen. However, there is a consensus of credible reporting about the air raid of Oct 24/25. Thus this market should resolve to yes already, but the chances that UMA will vote yes based on current reporting are not 100%.
2024-11-07 17:00:32
You're wrong that it is a single source. Maybe you're thinking of the Oct 23 alleged air raid. There are at least 5 original reports of the Oct 24/25 air raid, all independent of Houthi media.
2024-11-07 17:02:09
Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain are both first tier Arabic language sources. Plus there are several lesser sources.
2024-11-08 17:18:17
Media sources affiliated with the Houthi militia reported that an American MQ-9 drone was shot down in Al-Jawf Governorate, northeast of the occupied capital, Sana'a. Video clips circulated on social media platforms showed what was said to be the moment the plane was shot down, and its burning wreckage after it fell to the ground. The US military said it was investigating the incident, refusing to provide further details, following the circulation of video clips showing what appeared to be a drone catching fire and falling in Al-Jawf Governorate.
2024-11-09 02:04:44
For those wondering if the US really does airstrikes on the Houthis without claiming them, here's a clear-cut exampe: "On 23 May 2024, suspected US forces conducted strikes on Houthi forces in the house of former Vice President Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar in Al Hudaydah - Shari ad Durayhimi (Al Hawak) and in the house of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh killing and injuring between 7 and 10 Houthi fighters. Fatalities coded as 3 (conservative half of 7) and split between 2 locations. Sources claimed that the buildings housed Houthi leaders and military experts." Houthis conducted military funerals as a result of these strikes: https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1716862-%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81 https://www.skynewsarabia.com/video/1716466-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9
2024-11-09 04:08:41
There were at least 6 unclaimed American air raids between September 1 and October 22, according to the ACLED data.
2024-11-09 09:36:30
There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.
2024-11-09 09:38:43
Al Ain (Abu Dhabi, major newspaper under same management as The National and Sky News Arabia): "Local sources had previously informed Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy had bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening. The sources said that the bombing targeted tunnels to hide missiles and drones that the militias dug on palm farms" https://al-ain.com/article/houthi-militias-armed-militia
2024-11-09 09:39:21
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED: "On 25 October 2024, suspected US forces (unclear whether warship or aircraft unspecified) conducted 8 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Jah (Bayt Al Faqiah) and At Tawr area in At Tuhayta district (coded to Al Jah) (Bayt Al Faqiah, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. CENTCOM claimed responsibility without specifying exact date or location."
2024-11-09 09:39:52
Al Hadath (breaking news division of Al Arabiya, the main Saudi state channel): "Sources reported to Al-Hadath that a series of airstrikes targeted the Al-Jah Al-Asfal area in the Beit Al-Faqih district, south of Al-Hodeidah. The sources added that the airstrikes hit Houthi sites that included operations rooms and drone launch sites east of Al-Safariya, north of Al-Jah." Video: https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393
2024-11-09 09:40:16
Sputnik (Russian state, pro-Houthi): "Last Friday, American and British fighter jets carried out 6 raids on Ansar Allah sites, including a farm in the Al-Jah area in the Bayt Al-Faqih district (southeast of Hodeidah), according to what a source in the local authority in Hodeidah Governorate told Sputnik at the time." https://sarabic.ae/20241031/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-1094338405.html
2024-11-09 09:41:33
Other original media reports, Yemeni: "Warplanes launched a series of airstrikes at dawn today on sites and gatherings of the Houthi militia in Al Hudaydah Governorate, western Yemen. The eight raids targeted the areas of "Al Jah" in Bayt Al Faqih District and "Al Tur" in At Tuhayat District, destroying the targeted sites, according to field sources." https://adennews.net/155133 "Local sources in #Hodeidah: Targeting Houthi sites in the areas of "Al-Jah and Al-Tur" in the districts of Bayt Al-Faqih and Al-Tuhayta with 8 #airstrikes" https://x.com/khabaragency/status/1849551051730362674
2024-11-09 09:41:53
Additional Yemeni media reports: https://www.marebpress.net/news_details.php?lng=arabic&sid=207084 https://www.4may.net/news/125846
2024-11-09 09:42:53
Notable Yemeni social media posts: https://x.com/alhudhaifi/status/1849553777306763393 (The author claims to be a journalist for the major Saudi channel Al Ekhbariya) x.com/almarsa_ye/status/1849558821099770326 ("A journalistic platform centered on the Yemeni people, keeping up with events in Yemen in general and Al Hudaydah Governorate in particular, and concerned with confronting extremist and hate speech.") https://x.com/IbrahimAsqin/status/1849569177129947468
2024-11-09 14:42:48
It means there's going to be an arbitration vote on whether this should resolve to yes based on past events or keep going.
2024-11-09 19:22:21
The thread has 3 yes and 3 too early so far.
2024-11-09 22:59:17
Consensus of credible reporting suffices, which we have for the October 24-25 air raid.
2024-11-09 23:20:05
Al Hadath and Al Ain, etc. are international media.
2024-11-09 23:21:07
https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1304795599882817586
2024-11-10 02:50:13
Woof
2024-11-10 02:55:04
Saturday's airstrikes in Sanaa are confirmed. GG https://fb.watch/vLPBDCoRz8/
2024-11-10 03:59:19
Saturday's American airstrikes on Sana'a are confirmed by video evidence, both governments of Yemen, and numerous media accounts. They were the top story on the Saudi news on Saturday evening. Additionally, Al Hadath is backing the multiple Houthi reports of air raids from earlier this week.
2024-11-10 04:09:14
Some sources on Saturday's American air raids around Sana'a: https://fb.watch/vLPBDCoRz8/ https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855351286150922450 https://www.almashhadnews.com/295294 https://en.muraselon.com/2024/11/breaking-us-warplanes-bomb-the-yemeni-capital-sanaa/ https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1753921-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%94%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A1
2024-11-10 04:15:19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVt4VEZaj-0 https://www.alghad.tv/%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7/ https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855350218545356941
2024-11-10 04:16:37
He doesn't share fake news but his tendency not to cite sources properly is super annoying (and unethical)
2024-11-10 04:46:02
https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855337581795275178
2024-11-10 04:51:28
I think they mentioned something to that effect on the saudi news but i doubt he got it from there
2024-11-10 04:55:35
Indeed, this market should be re-proposed
2024-11-10 11:08:27
Thx it was definitely more than I bargained for but fun overall
2024-11-11 08:45:38
The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.
2024-11-11 09:00:17
The rules are written pretty expansively as to what would count as an embargo.
2024-11-11 09:08:04
Market can be resolved based on consensus of cred reporting. Also, while I believe it's true that the US hasn't publicly announced any embargo, the freeze on the MK84 bomb shipment was confirmed by US officials to the press https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-confirms-holding-up-sale-of-heavy-bombs-it-feared-israel-would-use-in-rafah/. The freeze on the MK84 shipment that was confirmed has clearly become a de facto embargo on this kind of weapon.
2024-11-11 09:11:12
(And there is reporting to that effect)
2024-11-11 09:17:58
US will sell 2,000 lb bombs and bulldozers to any buyer in good standing. B2 bombers and GBU-57s have never been exported.
2024-11-11 09:27:16
I may once I feel ready to argue the point formally.
2024-11-11 14:03:13
I believe the intent of this market ("U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?") is for any partial embargo active during the market period to trigger a yes. From the bulldozer article " The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes,"
2024-11-11 14:06:05
The reason that we have a credible news source and an Israeli insider using the term embargo for these restrictions is because they are just that.
2024-11-11 18:38:40
" The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes,"
2024-11-12 03:33:18
The facts support it. For starters, Israel received 14,000 2,000 lb. bombs from October to April, and a big fat 0 thereafter. Plenty of reporting indicating why that was (US judged that Israel was misusing the bombs) and the mechanics of it. It's incontrovertible that there was a political decision to deny more 2,000 lb bombs that remains in force.
2024-11-12 04:47:47
Credible report: " The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes," https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryn9yycz1g
2024-11-12 05:04:59
The definition of embargo that matters here is the one specified by the rules. It is expansive and has nothing intrinsically to do with sanctions law. If you have an argument for why it doesn't fit the definition of embargo specified by the rules, I am all ears.
2024-11-12 05:53:13
Ynet is yediot aharonot, one of the top Israeli newspapers. It is not the New York Times but it is a credible source
2024-11-12 05:55:57
This was also called a partial embargo by the foundation for defense of democracies, for example
2024-11-12 05:56:57
Rules: An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment to Israel or an official announcement from the U.S. government announcing an embargo. A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
2024-11-12 16:49:54
Lebanon september invasion should have been a yes but the Iraq market was called correctly IMO
2024-11-12 16:54:07
They changed the rules to require photo evidence or "overwhelming" reporting consensus.
2024-11-12 19:22:17
"A partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel has led to 134 D9 bulldozers that Israel has already paid for awaiting U.S. State Department approval to be exported." https://www.jns.org/us-bulldozer-shipments-to-israel-stalled/
2024-11-12 19:23:36
"These bulldozers are primarily used for flattening structures in the Gaza Strip, which has led to significant criticism in the U.S. Under intense pressure, the Biden administration has frozen deliveries for several months."
2024-11-12 21:59:32
Considering that Ronen Bergman says it happened it most likely did. (Also explosions were reported at Camp Speicher, Tikrit)t
2024-11-13 03:55:50
"D9 bulldozer shipment stalled by US partial arms embargo, posing a serious danger to Israeli soldiers." Mark Dubowitz, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
2024-11-13 04:25:16
"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul
2024-11-13 05:44:23
The US embargoes on 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers remain active.
2024-11-13 05:58:28
On the merits, this market should be a yes already. In practice, there will be a lot of pushback. Some further reporting on the D9 embargo would be nice.
2024-11-13 12:06:47
Iranian sources to Sky News Arabia: #Iran postpones implementation of Operation "True Promise 3" against #Israel after #Trump's victory x.com/skynewsarabia/status/1856656279936413768
2024-11-13 13:49:41
My grandmother heard this from Mohammed al Houthi himself.
2024-11-14 19:15:01
Trump: On the first day of my term, I will cancel all restrictions and delays on the transfer of armaments and combat equipment https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1857129657600184500
2024-11-14 19:15:40
Rules: "An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment...A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution."
2024-11-16 05:23:36
"Currently, U.S. restrictions include an embargo on [2,000 lb. bombs] and limitations on various combat-related equipment, even if they do not involve explosive ordnance. This embargo has impacted Israel's defense capabilities, especially as the military now contends with active fronts in both Lebanon and Gaza, requiring strict control over ammunition and supply use. Trump's pledge to lift all military supply restrictions, starting from his first day in office, would allow Israel to replenish its stockpiles and alleviate current constraints." https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-said-lift-all-military-restrictions-israel-first-day-office-according-reports
2024-11-16 05:43:40
"The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes," https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryn9yycz1g
2024-11-17 07:51:05
probable misspelling of Khomeini
2024-11-17 08:07:21
"Several social media posts emerged on Saturday alleging"
2024-11-17 09:56:35
coma is fake news
2024-11-17 11:45:54
why?
2024-11-21 05:48:40
Israel Channel 12: While the IDF is fighting in Gaza and Lebanon - the shipment of approximately 20,000 Mk84 bombs weighing a ton from the US to Israel is delayed by the decision of the Biden administration. Intense talks are taking place between senior Israeli security officials and their counterparts in the American government, in an effort to resolve the crisis. Last week we reported in the main edition that US President-elect Donald Trump delivered a dramatic message to Israel: immediately after the inauguration ceremony on Capitol Hill, he will lift all delays and embargoes on shipments of weapons and military equipment to Israel.
2024-11-21 07:19:43
link?
2024-11-21 07:20:40
link to source?
2024-11-22 04:29:40
It's selective prosecution. If you look at who has actually gotten convicted at the Hague, they all did more blatant stuff
2024-11-23 01:58:55
For months the Biden-Harris administration has sought to restrain Israeli military operations by blocking or delaying the delivery of weapons--far more weapons than has been reported. It is widely known that the White House has blocked the delivery of 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs to Israel, despite Congress's approving their transfer. But Israeli officials have told us that the list of affected weapons is far more extensive. They told us that the Defense Department is slowing the delivery of thousands of 1,000-pound MK-83 bombs, 500-pound MK-82 bombs, and Joint Direct Attack Munitions... https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-that-harris-has-lost-let-israel-win-hamas-hezbollah-weapons-biden-blocks-shipments-0fd7c482
2024-11-23 02:01:17
Rules: "An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment...A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution."
2024-11-24 12:48:46
â reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.â these resolution criteria are unlikely to be met in case of an attack
2024-11-24 14:26:35
I doubt they will announce it. Message is sent without it.
2024-11-24 14:27:42
Note that they havenât claimed the recent attacks in eastern Syria
2024-11-24 14:41:15
The standard for this market is "overwhelming consensus of media reporting", a standard which AFAIK is unprecedented on polymarket.
2024-11-24 14:47:09
"overwhelming consensus of media reporting" requires more than the usual "consensus of media reporting". a couple of reports absolutely won't cut it.
2024-11-24 21:29:39
I mean they tried to assassinate Masih Alinejad and Trump
2024-11-25 11:34:06
Israel Channel 14: The army's support for a ceasefire in the north makes sense: refreshing reserve forces, ending the American embargo, and time to arm and strengthen.
2024-11-25 15:32:27
Is there any info on the Israeli withdrawal schedule?
2024-11-25 15:47:18
there were some drafts which had a 7 day withdrawal period but that doesn't help yes here
2024-11-25 15:50:47
Lebanese Parliament Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saeb confirmed to Reuters that "there are no serious obstacles to implementing the ceasefire agreement" proposed by the Americans. The details of the agreement, according to Saeb, are the withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon and the entry of Lebanese army forces within 60 days, under the supervision of a committee of five countries, headed by the United States.
2024-11-25 15:52:31
The rich get richer
2024-11-25 15:58:10
Yes folks don't light your money on fire
2024-11-26 13:02:37
"The response to #Israel's recent aggression has been devised beyond what the regime's [Israeli] leaders can imagine," Chief of Staff of #Iran's regime's Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said on Tuesday.
2024-11-28 20:06:24
Netanyahu is a corrupt politician so no he isnât that credible. However he is correct in this instance
2024-11-28 20:08:03
Discuss on discord?
2024-11-28 21:34:24
Valuable not reliable. Weâre on the same side
2024-11-30 07:07:58
ICC has a weak case
2024-12-05 00:05:01
when money
2024-12-08 06:49:34
Maybe it's better to wait a day and figure out if he died or whatever
2024-12-10 22:27:51
They found it when they captured one of his palaces
2024-12-11 16:41:03
Russian troops exiting Syria into Turkey: https://x.com/milanczerny/status/1866883554078011862
2024-12-11 16:57:02
According to Ukraine, there are 4 Russian evac ships sailing towards Tartus. This is somewhat confirmed by the fact that one of them was spotted leaving the Baltic yesterday, and one of them left St. Petersburg yesterday.
2024-12-12 16:09:02
Ukraine: To export weapons and military equipment from the base in Tartus, the Russian ships Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky continue to move. Now they are in the Norwegian Sea, in a few days their passage by the English Channel. The Russian Sparta dry cargo moves to the Syrian port, which left the city of Baltiysk. The ship Sparta II, which departed from St. Petersburg, is also planned to be involved in the export of military equipment from the Arab Republic.
2024-12-12 16:09:14
https://gur.gov.ua/content/zahul-u-tartusi-rosiiany-pyiachat-ta-maroderiat-v-ochikuvanni-evakuatsii-z-syriiskykh-baz.html
2024-12-12 16:52:07
This Bloomberg article is obviously bad for yes, but it honestly doesn't make much sense for Syria to allow Russia to stay, or for the US and Europe to accept continued Russian presence. If I was Jolani I would get an offer from Russia and shop it to the West. Getting rid of Russia in Syria would be a concrete win for the West and it should be a layup.
2024-12-12 18:15:48
Russia's public statement is fairly hedged: We have started contacts with the political administration of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the contacts are constructive Moscow is counting on the continuation of its two bases in Syria The bases on Syrian territory remain where they were and no further decisions have been taken yet
2024-12-12 21:16:08
HTS officially disbanding won't be enough to resolve their legal issues. Delisting would still be beneficial in that case..
2024-12-13 03:08:02
true, this is a funny market
2024-12-14 15:50:31
It's true that no decision has been made by Syria about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.
2024-12-14 16:15:27
This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.
2024-12-14 16:42:25
'The only "logical purpose" al-Tanf serves is to allow the United States to "monitor and disrupt the flow of Iranian-backed militias,"'
2024-12-14 16:42:42
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/25/us-considering-plan-to-stay-in-remote-syrian-base-to-counter-iran-tanf-pentagon-military-trump/
2024-12-14 16:45:09
As I was saying, the base lacks a purpose now, so the military will be OK with feeding it to Trump as withdrawal event. Meanwhile HTS wants to restore Syrian sovereignty at the border crossing.
2024-12-15 04:31:41
They're no longer present in Syria
2024-12-16 19:16:17
Al Arabiya reported that the Russians are starting a full withdrawal from Tartus within hours
2024-12-16 19:28:33
https://x.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1868723639677251775
2024-12-20 20:43:59
It's a fascinating article but Bill Roggio also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. E.g. his implication that al Sharaa may still have a secret allegiance to Al Qaeda is rather absurd. The guy is second only to the USA in Al Qaeda scalps at this point. Also note that he is attempting to consolidate all armed groups under the command of the ministry of defense. This will necessarily involve these HTS-allied factions foregoing any foreign allegiances.
2024-12-20 22:21:14
The bounty for Ahmed al Sharaa has been officially removed following the announcement earlier today.
2024-12-22 18:53:26
Donât forget about this one https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-2024
2024-12-22 18:58:22
Oil infrastructure is next on the target list
2024-12-22 22:07:52
Dec is possible but it ain't 50/50
2024-12-22 23:34:17
what else?
2024-12-23 01:10:53
If you're gonna go all the way out there, you may as well hit something important. And they already hit the highest value missile manufacturing sites
2024-12-23 01:13:18
Unless you want polymarket to refund everyone since the rules are retarded, it should obv resolve yes due to the intent.
2024-12-23 03:48:23
not particularly. just amused by all these disputes
2024-12-23 03:49:52
looking for the intent is one of the only possible moves when faced with a nonsensical rule set
2024-12-23 04:59:21
i'm not seeing a sensible alternative interpretation but feel free to ignore me. i'm not following it closely enough.
2024-12-23 15:41:45
link?
2024-12-23 20:25:42
why do you say that?
2024-12-24 05:43:44
"imposes" is actually ambiguous between "start" and "actively enforce"
2024-12-24 05:45:19
"The only other countries (as of this writing) on which the U.S. imposes an embargo are Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, and Burma/Myanmar" that's an example i pulled off google. it doesn't mean start in that context
2024-12-24 05:46:09
but i agree it's more likely to be interpreted as start
2024-12-24 16:29:00
well no one spent money to dispute the outcome
2024-12-25 02:46:30
If that's what you're pinning your hopes on, you're better off selling while mmouse is buying for some reason
2024-12-25 22:34:11
Boxing Day sale
2024-12-26 19:58:25
lmao
2024-12-26 20:14:55
Either no reason or because things are heating up on the ground in Syria slightly (in a way that will likely be inconsequential ultimately).
2024-12-28 19:24:53
Tanf has 200-300. The troops in Iraq have a reason to be there. Tanf is pretty pointless as of recently
2024-12-28 21:35:13
'The only "logical purpose" al-Tanf serves is to allow the United States to "monitor and disrupt the flow of Iranian-backed militias,"'
2024-12-28 21:35:19
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/25/us-considering-plan-to-stay-in-remote-syrian-base-to-counter-iran-tanf-pentagon-military-trump/
2024-12-28 21:36:39
Tanf has minimal anti-ISIS payoff IMO -- anyways, I articulated my views more fully in the thread below.
2024-12-29 06:13:30
Scammers = people with positive P&L that I disagree with
2024-12-29 06:23:48
Yes holders: -$200K, No holders: +$1.3M.
2024-12-29 06:42:33
"Kakoi ti suchka, sukin sin đ tvau mamu ibal" Delta can you explain why you're DMing me some kind of curse spells?
2024-12-29 07:49:45
wow you're using sock puppets now? maybe you are a scammer. and to think i've been defending you from all these vulgar retards. anyways, i'm only buying yes on limit. unfortunately, i'm poor now.
2024-12-29 18:27:06
Getting rid of tanf is not priority number 1 for jolani but itâs an unacceptable violation of Syrian sovereignty. The base has insufficient purpose for the Americans so they will close it and withdraw to tower 22. Thatâs the main thing
2024-12-30 02:10:37
Short version: this particular base (al Tanf) is too pointless for the US to maintain post-Assad. The withdrawal date is a genuine question however.
2024-12-30 02:17:09
It did.
2024-12-30 21:31:23
Early request 99.99% (18,701,668.41) Yes 0.01% (2,445.06)
2024-12-31 05:12:06
It will be easier to publicly justify removing them from the list if they no longer exist
2024-12-31 10:48:49
Especially with HTS disbanded it's a kind of throwaway concession you can use on the way to recognition. To help keep them out of Russia's arms while things are hashed out. I guess either Biden or Trump could do it.
2025-01-02 21:31:14
sorry about that
2025-01-02 21:35:24
how's that -$4K on $700K volume treating you babe?
2025-01-03 00:55:14
You got unlucky on ceasefire but you oversized and didnât protect your position well enough. So I agree your pnl isnât fully representative. Donât see why youâre being rude to me in the comments tho
2025-01-03 05:08:51
HTS is one of the most violently anti Islamic state factions in the world
2025-01-03 05:09:24
The dissolution of HTS has been pushed to next week
2025-01-03 05:11:54
Iâm still learning after 3 months
2025-01-03 06:16:52
That supersedes my source, so it looks like two weeks of delay
2025-01-03 06:19:31
Snc may not be invited
2025-01-03 20:38:31
@wyn, so you think the moon landing was fake? just clarifying.
2025-01-03 20:41:15
100%
2025-01-05 00:35:40
US-Backed Syria Rebels Hope Trump Won't Withdraw Troops Just Yet
2025-01-05 00:35:52
https://www.newsweek.com/us-backed-syria-rebels-hope-trump-wont-withdraw-troops-just-yet-2009029
2025-01-06 19:13:19
Todayâs sanctions waiver is the second significant step towards a rapprochement between the USA and HTS, following the removal of bounties.
2025-01-06 20:17:05
both of their wives left them should be good enough tbh
2025-01-07 14:13:36
I'd be mildly surprised if either Biden or Trump did it before HTS disbands
2025-01-07 14:31:06
With that said, I can see the Trump admin doing it after HTS disbands. Admittedly, on any given sunday, Biden would be more likely to do that than Trump
2025-01-08 04:23:53
As far as timeframe I think hts will dissolve officially at the time of the national dialogue
2025-01-08 17:44:33
Since thatâs what they said theyâd do and thereâs no rain reason not to
2025-01-08 17:45:34
I donât think Israel is hugely relevant
2025-01-08 17:47:01
Itâs true you can argue both ways on how disbanding affects delisting but the US has an incentive to court the new government as much as possible
2025-01-09 15:33:57
Itâs over for trumpcels
2025-01-11 22:10:36
Gaza is just west golan bro
2025-01-13 13:22:39
they said they'd respond but haven't so far. i'm likely going to sue them in panama.
2025-01-13 14:29:32
thx for the tip
2025-01-13 16:45:07
Mashal isn't in Qatar according to what?
2025-01-13 16:51:42
I know car sold because he thought the ceasefire might somehow lead to Hamas leaving Qatar
2025-01-13 16:58:55
I agree. I'm just telling you why car sold 5k
2025-01-13 17:22:34
yes but some people don't understand that (similar to how you don't understand that they are in Qatar)
2025-01-13 17:26:34
@Kaizer congrats on your recent trades.
2025-01-13 17:48:13
He is in Qatar as per photographic evidence
2025-01-14 00:26:26
The ceasefire turns this from a bond into a bond bond. Hamas leaders cannot return to Gaza -- not part of the deal whatsoever.
2025-01-14 11:42:06
still needs to pass the israeli cabinet vote
2025-01-15 17:32:02
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control
2025-01-15 17:33:28
As a UMA whale scam artist, I'd like to thank Polymarket for this opportunity.
2025-01-15 17:35:50
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Syrian territory, regardless of whether some Syrian territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.
2025-01-18 02:57:02
Because no one proposed yet
2025-01-18 11:08:02
I proposed it
2025-01-18 21:41:30
Thatâs incorrect
2025-01-19 01:14:41
No 0.00% (43.43) Yes 100.00% (6,351,123.14)
2025-01-19 01:43:55
has making shit up worked out for you so far?
2025-01-19 02:35:16
polymarket sucks unfortunately but the Israeli PMO did announce the deal during the market period.
2025-01-19 12:20:16
I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.
2025-01-19 12:44:10
Actually we have excellent program in gonzo pornography
2025-01-19 15:56:38
That wasn't a real admin. You got catfished.
2025-01-19 17:44:14
You shouldn't take financial advice from users with negative P&L.
2025-01-19 19:08:21
I'm gonna be edging him the whole time uwu
2025-01-19 19:47:23
gonna show him the comments, so plz be as degrading as possible.
2025-01-19 20:47:40
Pretty sure they added this market bc Netanyahu (accurately) kept disputing that there was a [signed] agreement, so it stands to reason that they resolve yes when that was announced
2025-01-20 01:08:54
That wouldnât count actually
2025-01-20 15:10:06
"I just made lot of people rich! " would not count
2025-01-20 17:51:37
How is my FinSub gonna get off on this?
2025-01-20 18:38:00
Thanks for your kind words of support
2025-01-21 09:28:41
Why is it shitty?
2025-01-21 09:29:06
Lebanese army is supposed to take over but they're unable to do so so far
2025-01-21 13:42:08
Lebanese army was supposed to take over under the agreement, so it wasn't israel who violated.
2025-01-21 14:49:42
The IDF withdraws when LAF coordinates an adequate force to take over.
2025-01-22 15:00:52
It would violate the Danish/Greenlandic constitutions but I guess they technically could if they change the laws
2025-01-22 21:55:15
Folx my sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say Russia is staying
2025-01-22 22:19:14
Is true. Russia and Syria are brotherly nations.
2025-01-22 22:44:32
Typical western degenerate perspective. Jolani himself admit this in al arabiya interview.
2025-01-23 09:31:36
Yet youâre holding yes đ¤
2025-01-23 09:35:32
Yes holders actually believed a shadow government deep state analyst
2025-01-23 10:28:51
Hi Oliver! Whatâs your account?
2025-01-23 10:38:31
Nevertheless the negotiations are ongoing, and will probably stay ongoing until the west agrees to lift sanctions etc.
2025-01-23 10:43:38
obv russia intends to stay if possible. doubt syria will let them tho
2025-01-23 12:06:34
A no
2025-01-23 12:08:14
They have to say they withdrew fully
2025-01-23 16:26:44
No, it's been mentioned repeatedly, and they've never officially threatened to terminate the ceasefire if the 60 days are violated.
2025-01-23 19:05:07
I agree with our local gopnik
2025-01-23 22:56:15
Amichai Stein: The IDF will stay in southern Lebanon after day 60 of the ceasefire but itâs still unclear for how long, according to sources in the defense establishment and ministers, who convened on Thursday night to discuss the situation.Sunday will mark 60 days since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on November 27
2025-01-25 23:40:30
The Lebanese armed forces haven't mobilized and enforced the deal fully, nor has Israel withdrawn fully. It will take until next month at a minimum for the deal to be fully implemented.
2025-01-30 00:16:16
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) backfilled the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Marwahin and Birkat Richa, southwestern Lebanon, and Yaroun, south-central Lebanon, on January 28. Lebanese media reported on January 28 that the LAF established a military position in Boustane, south-central Lebanon.
2025-01-30 10:27:55
No
2025-01-30 10:33:49
I feel like yes will appreciate when they reduce the liquidity rewards
2025-02-01 00:41:51
shit where's the undo trade button
2025-02-01 17:14:39
I think less than that. Anyways could have been worse
2025-02-02 03:48:39
Military units were deployed in the town of Aitaroun - Bint Jbeil in the central sector and other border areas in the South Litani region in coordination with the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement
2025-02-02 03:52:03
@LebarmyOfficial
2025-02-02 13:48:17
The Lebanese army is in an advanced stage of the deployment in 2/3 sectors
2025-02-02 15:05:18
The withdrawal deadline is February 18
2025-02-02 21:49:38
Itâs always ânot happeningâ until it does
2025-02-02 22:48:19
Theyâre not allowed to have any
2025-02-03 07:07:28
Untrue. Link?
2025-02-03 10:48:39
The Israelis mentioned 3-5 outposts but the Americans never approved this and Israel subsequently agreed to a feb 18 deadline for full withdrawal. The army would be interested to stay longer but maintaining the ceasefire is more important politically than a few outposts
2025-02-03 19:11:27
do tell
2025-02-03 19:36:47
I don't recall such
2025-02-04 14:06:24
Military units were deployed in the town of Taybeh - Marjeyoun in the eastern sector and other border areas in the southern Litani region after the Israeli enemy withdrew, in coordination with the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement
2025-02-04 14:06:57
@LebarmyOfficial
2025-02-04 14:13:57
That's not going to fly. They're currently participating though not as an elected member.
2025-02-04 21:59:35
Needs proposal?
2025-02-05 04:12:16
the rules are retarded but they are clear
2025-02-05 20:13:54
they forgot to update the end date from the announcement market
2025-02-07 22:18:22
Where are you from?
2025-02-08 02:28:58
He said he would iirc
2025-02-08 03:42:42
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3j1qn0499o.amp
2025-02-08 23:06:00
which ship is on the way?
2025-02-09 04:04:47
thanks
2025-02-09 14:24:17
This will likely be discussed as continuation of phase 1, so it will be a no
2025-02-09 14:25:17
link?
2025-02-09 14:58:54
I think itâs a genuine report. Good news for peace if not necessarily for yes holders
2025-02-09 15:11:44
I care đżđż
2025-02-09 15:20:29
The main thing is they havenât withdrawn from the philadelphi corridor which should not count as a buffer zone
2025-02-09 15:22:47
No
2025-02-09 16:08:48
I love every random Lebanese village equally
2025-02-09 16:28:53
Nice work. You may have a point that yes is undervalued. However, the political timeline is more against you than the military timeline.
2025-02-09 16:50:26
I disagree. They are meant to withdraw from Philadephi in phase 2 to get the remaining hostages. That was looking decent until Trump kind of blew things up with his recent statements. In any case, withdrawal this year is likely. We're only in Feb.
2025-02-09 16:52:34
I'm trying to learn from your based swing trading tactics tho
2025-02-09 17:13:17
Are you on discord?
2025-02-09 17:20:52
You should consider also: the dates for the syrian national dialogue and transitional govt accession (supposedly early march)
2025-02-09 17:40:48
Probably you're thinking of a statement the PMO put out. They would still have to withdraw during phase 2 but it was denying that they would withdraw at the beginning of phase 2 iirc
2025-02-09 17:41:08
but worded deceptively
2025-02-09 17:42:07
Anyways good call on fading here
2025-02-09 17:50:49
they'll come back if they can
2025-02-09 17:51:06
not counting on but hoping for
2025-02-09 17:51:25
full withdrawal will only come when the negotiations break down and the russian lease is terminated
2025-02-09 17:56:30
buy me out then daddy
2025-02-09 17:57:14
I can even give you size at 89
2025-02-09 18:19:26
Aight well lmk if you change your mind. Could put up 20k at 88
2025-02-09 18:25:26
I could buy 20k for 77
2025-02-09 18:25:38
Which withdrawal
2025-02-09 18:25:53
Lebanon?
2025-02-09 18:29:44
Lebanon 20k for 23?
2025-02-09 18:43:20
Lebanon itâs mostly my orders on the book anyways so thatâs a fair price
2025-02-09 22:10:53
why do you say that?
2025-02-10 01:45:20
actually I could do even 18 for lebanon. no interest in the book was firmer than i thought.
2025-02-10 02:01:03
I DMed chupex, not sure if it's you
2025-02-10 04:45:39
No, he deactivated
2025-02-10 06:22:51
He deactivated
2025-02-10 10:33:00
Cause phase 2 isnât happening anymore
2025-02-10 13:15:04
Letâs put some size on the book
2025-02-10 13:15:17
This market so dead
2025-02-10 14:06:54
lol
2025-02-10 14:17:26
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-negotiators-arrive-in-doha-sources-say-its-just-for-show-pm-aims-to-brick-deal/
2025-02-10 20:32:45
diamond hands
2025-02-10 20:33:00
death before dishonor
2025-02-11 08:21:30
Where is anon russian yes whale? This price is getting dumb
2025-02-11 19:25:22
I'm aight -- all part of the game. Belatedly thinking the signs are mixed after yd so took the opportunity to derisk.
2025-02-11 23:15:34
could have doubled your money aha
2025-02-12 12:01:43
Most sources suggest thereâs are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts
2025-02-12 12:12:32
This is a confusion imo. Israel wants until at least February 28 to complete the withdrawal from remaining areas excluding the outposts, primarily in the eastern sector
2025-02-12 12:34:33
Yes but the report isnât accurate afaik â On the ground, sources following the developments indicated that the next step in the deployment of the Lebanese army is expected to take place before the end of this week in Blida and Mays al-Jabal, after the army deployed on Sunday and Monday in Rab Thalathin, Bani Hayyan and Taloussa. According to the sources, the army was informed that the occupation forces will withdraw from a number of other towns that they still occupy in the central and eastern sectors. But other towns will not witness a withdrawal soon, but will be subject to special arrangements due to their direct contact with the colonies, such as Maroun al-Ras, the outskirts of Aitaroun, Blida, Mays al-Jabal, Adaisseh, Kfar Kila, and al-Wazzani, â Israel will likely retain some villages past February 18 until February 28 and the outposts longer
2025-02-12 12:41:48
Israel wants to delay withdrawal from maroun el ras and the outskirts of several villages until February 28 afaik
2025-02-12 14:14:43
yes, the reports are contradictory. just saying where i think the weight of evidence points.
2025-02-12 15:35:35
lebanon is famous for its hospitality
2025-02-12 15:42:48
very nice
2025-02-12 15:42:54
"It should be noted that these are initial understandings that were reached with the United States and that further work is expected to close the details In full and accurately." however
2025-02-12 15:45:20
I think joe is lebanese
2025-02-12 15:50:01
thanks, i should tip you for that when this resolves
2025-02-12 16:42:26
only phase 2 counts, not continuation of phase 1
2025-02-12 17:07:36
it's poorly worded, but i think they mean we should interpret "official agreement" to mean "publicly announced mutual agreement" but it still has to considered as "phase 2" by official or consensus of credible sources.
2025-02-12 17:18:29
you have tunnel vision about what it means. it's not clear at all but i'm telling you how i think it will most likely be interpreted having been thru a dozen plus of these retarded uma disputes.
2025-02-12 18:01:12
that's what Lebanon wants to happen
2025-02-12 18:06:06
you on discord?
2025-02-12 18:42:35
yes and what's your username?
2025-02-12 18:54:14
that's why the market settlement will rely on credible source consensus and official sources about what constitutes phase 2. sell your shit if this is your plan
2025-02-12 19:06:38
only if they announce [falsely] that they withdrew from all of Lebanon, which I doubt.
2025-02-12 19:07:58
highly doubt it will play out as you think but maybe you need that feeback from someone else.
2025-02-12 19:40:41
yeh but wagner was demonstrably an arm of russian state
2025-02-12 22:15:48
Combating the impact of lawlessness inside Russia isn't the same as combating Russia (see the Nigerian case above)
2025-02-12 22:17:20
you linked 14024 not 14144
2025-02-13 11:00:28
Kevin Chan voted yes uwu. Thank you daddy
2025-02-13 12:03:37
I tend to hold later than most
2025-02-13 13:18:00
I'm just saying that because he committed votes while Yes scammers were brigading the UMA thread. But too soon should still win here.
2025-02-13 13:34:55
I think no wins this sorry to say. I obviously was concerned earlier this week.
2025-02-13 15:56:50
it's only a war crime if they leave involuntarily. there are 100s of thousands who would leave voluntarily if given a decent option.
2025-02-13 17:16:02
Israel is famous for letting terrorism slide
2025-02-13 17:17:53
hope you bought
2025-02-13 17:22:29
no
2025-02-14 01:16:50
ignoring
2025-02-14 01:21:24
Car is the number one killer of males 18-25.
2025-02-14 02:19:03
Yes 41.57% (1,151,648.94) Early request 58.43% (1,618,789.61)
2025-02-14 02:19:19
rulecuckers btfo?
2025-02-14 02:25:23
Yes 23.64% (1,151,648.94) Early request 76.36% (3,719,461.61)
2025-02-14 02:35:32
I mean you you could sanction a Malian individual and have it be "against Russia" and a Russian individual and have it be "against France". Having a nationality and being linked to a government are 2 different things.
2025-02-14 02:52:40
If there's no supermajority then they redo the vote lol
2025-02-14 03:00:03
I'm not sure what the threshold is -- maybe 55%?
2025-02-14 06:02:41
Looks like the vote will come down to how BornTooLate votes. Seems P4 Too Early is slightly favored.
2025-02-14 06:25:05
Letâs not make Uma feel bad about their reading comprehension
2025-02-14 11:45:33
as long as they're "on Russia"
2025-02-14 16:33:01
They clarified Syria 10 days late and I lost $60K feel free to join my lawsuit.
2025-02-14 16:35:11
If any yes holders want to join my lawsuit against Polymarket over their resolution practices, please lmk.
2025-02-14 16:40:52
It's important to be aware of how PM uses clarifications, but it's not clear that the way they are using them is legal. They advertise their resolution process as decentralized.
2025-02-14 16:56:09
Much appreciated!
2025-02-14 17:04:39
this but unironically
2025-02-14 17:37:44
They're going to hand over all the villages but not 5 or so hilltop outposts.
2025-02-14 17:45:57
Yes holders, this is your main hope:
2025-02-14 17:46:01
After the head of the monitoring committee informed Lebanon of Israelâs intention to maintain observation points, communication took place between President Joseph Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri to coordinate positions and study the situation, while stressing the importance of withdrawal.
2025-02-14 17:47:19
Sources pointed out that several possibilities are being studied, including a proposal announced by French Foreign Minister Jean Noel Barrot after the conference on Syria in Paris, which stipulates the deployment of some UNIFIL units, including French units, in the places where Israel wants to remain. The proposal was approved by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, while Israel has not yet responded.
2025-02-14 18:39:53
Unfortunately a lot of the no holders lost money on shares that should have been winning (myself included).
2025-02-14 21:40:42
sorry what scam was i doing?
2025-02-15 09:35:41
MEP is too talented to tolerate mere 10% return in 2 weeks.
2025-02-15 09:37:58
ok was their main hope then
2025-02-16 08:02:42
Need some sourcing this was against Russia
2025-02-16 13:37:57
Builds on is too vague a relationship and they emphasize the cyber security aspect
2025-02-16 16:16:02
Israel wants substantial demilitarization and exile of Hamas leaders. Seems like it will take longer than a month to hash out
2025-02-16 16:21:56
He adds that phase two âis a little bit more intricate and complicated in terms of how we bring the two sides together on this.â Witkoff explains that the second phase of the deal âcontemplates an end to the war, but it also contemplates Hamas not being involved in the government and being gone from Gaza. So, weâve got to square those two things.â
2025-02-16 16:54:01
Iâm not optimistic but Iâd be happy to lose this one
2025-02-16 17:12:28
4 weeks isnât a long time to get Hamas to agree to end their 17+ year regime
2025-02-16 17:36:16
Israel never deliberately attacked unifil, or at least it's unlikely and there is no proof thereof
2025-02-16 17:37:39
Certainly no such attack was ever ordered by the israeli command structure and they did apologize for some incidents
2025-02-16 17:40:38
Hamas thinks it can get away with withdrawing from formal governance while retaining its armed wing and de facto control or heavy influence over the govt
2025-02-17 10:50:15
I donât think anyone on no assumes that the prewar agreements between Syria and Russia will remain completely unaltered
2025-02-17 11:03:45
Greengasper change of heart?
2025-02-17 11:26:26
It was already stated by Ron dermer last week
2025-02-17 11:27:25
But it was interesting that there was still some reporting ambiguity yesterday
2025-02-17 11:35:26
Dermer is privvy to the decision making. But itâs true that the value of yes is lower today
2025-02-17 11:44:09
Israel will withdraw tomorrow from its positions in Lebanon, except for five strategic points where it will remain indefinitely, according to a senior Israeli official: Channel 13
2025-02-17 11:53:35
Dov what happened?
2025-02-17 13:20:11
Yes, if Israel unambiguously announces that they have withdrawn from *all* of Lebanon, then this goes yes.
2025-02-17 13:21:02
The Strategic Affairs Minister has already stated publicly that they are staying, however.
2025-02-17 13:22:11
I'm sorry to hear that. Was it one of those fake customer support catfishers?
2025-02-17 13:42:10
Russia will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, achieving a key objective for President Vladimir Putin after the downfall of the Assad regime he backed, according to people familiar with the matter. Moscow is close to a deal with the new Syrian government that would allow it to maintain some staff and equipment in the country, the people said, asking not to be identified because they werenât authorized to speak publicly.
2025-02-17 13:44:07
"Israel will hold onto five strategic high points just inside Lebanon after next Tuesdayâs ceasefire deadline requiring it to withdraw all troops, a top Israeli government official says. The army will redeploy but retain those five positions until Lebanon complies with ceasefire commitments, Israelâs Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, whoâs one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuâs closest confidants, said in a telephone interview."
2025-02-17 13:52:30
They don't normally respond to complaints about how markets resolve, but they might respond about this.
2025-02-17 15:17:40
Joe Wilson is weird iirc
2025-02-17 15:39:21
Not sure if they can do anything major besides having some popup warning when you make an account.
2025-02-17 16:02:25
Thanks for the donation to my kids yeshiva fund
2025-02-17 16:44:41
Arab diplomatic sources tell Qatari Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: There is an intention to postpone the Arab emergency summit scheduled in Cairo on February 27, with March 4 appearing to be an optional date for the summit. According to the sources, the postponement is intended to allow time to formulate an Arab plan for the Gaza Strip and convince all Arab leaders to participate
2025-02-17 17:00:00
Another day another goyische freier
2025-02-17 17:28:23
Fair pt
2025-02-17 19:57:47
Wait so this market was based on what? Elon tweeted at her?
2025-02-17 20:26:26
responding to Andrew Tate in the comments đŠđŠđŠđŠ
2025-02-17 20:28:25
If you get some cheap fills you could cut her in and pay for an abortion too
2025-02-17 21:13:51
I don't follow
2025-02-18 02:10:04
âWe will leave small amounts of troops deployed temporarily in five strategic points along the border in Lebanon so we can continue to defend our residents and to make sure thereâs no immediate threat,â said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman, in a briefing for reporters on Monday afternoon. Colonel Shoshani named several locations spread along most of the length of the 75-mile border, including places across the border from Israeli villages that were badly damaged by Hezbollah rocket fire during the war. He said that Hezbollah had not lived up to its own side of the November agreement and still posed a threat to Israeli residents in those areas. He declined to say how long the occupation would last.
2025-02-18 02:33:36
The deployment at the 5 points is not linked to the 28th
2025-02-18 03:38:11
Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian
2025-02-18 08:07:23
They announced theyâre staying at the five points so it will go no
2025-02-18 09:02:20
How do you see if it's disputed?
2025-02-18 10:20:59
If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."
2025-02-18 10:21:50
This market can't resolve until July 1, since we don't yet know if Musk will be the formal head of DOGE any point by then.
2025-02-18 10:23:11
The sentence is syntactically ambiguous between your interpretation and the interpretation I just suggested.
2025-02-18 10:35:34
Yes so if he fails to be the head of doge for even one moment, he can't resign, but this nevertheless resolves yes on july 1
2025-02-18 10:38:05
We won't know that until the end of the market period
2025-02-18 10:45:06
That sentence could also be explaining what happens if DOGE is created and Elon is not the head for any point in the market period.
2025-02-18 10:54:39
Depends on the intended scope of not in the sentence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_raising#NEG-raising_in_English
2025-02-18 11:00:01
I don't even own any shares. I disputed because I interpret the rules that way.
2025-02-18 12:13:23
I don't think you were following the (slightly weird) point I was making about the grammar, but you convinced me about the intent with this. It would be a pretty big flaw in the rules if there was nothing for leaving in other circumstances than resignation.
2025-02-18 12:20:25
In retrospect it was some degree of silly
2025-02-18 16:07:05
only in september lol
2025-02-18 17:16:38
I'm all in.
2025-02-18 19:43:34
Palestinian opinion polls for example show this
2025-02-18 19:56:26
Calls and interviews
2025-02-18 20:07:29
Well prewar polls already showed this
2025-02-18 20:07:46
But some polling is still going on
2025-02-19 08:22:44
bruh he's had 5+ corruption trials/investigations
2025-02-20 22:08:25
no
2025-02-21 17:20:28
Trump told Brian Kilmeade Netanyahu "is not tornâ about the way forward in the Gaza war and stresses the Israeli prime minister "wants to go inâ. When asked if he prefers that Netanyahu implements the 2nd phase of the hostage deal or go after Hamas Trump said: âI am OK either way"
2025-02-23 06:50:19
Where was that reported?
2025-02-23 07:15:13
So youâre referring to this kan report?
2025-02-23 07:17:39
My understanding is that indirect accomplices can be charged for attempted murder. Also a serious crime may need to not listed in order to remand people
2025-02-23 08:06:30
I highly doubt this will pan out for you. I do have a sell order at 90 if you get cold feet
2025-02-23 08:17:26
Attempted murder charges (which i donât think will happen) will not suffice if they are charged as accomplices
2025-02-23 08:21:38
Alright good luck have fun
2025-02-23 14:44:32
Witkoff is expected in the region on Wednesday to negotiate extensions to the ceasefire
2025-02-23 18:01:32
Given the ongoing diplomacy, it's hard to see the ceasefire breaking by EOM
2025-02-25 13:50:51
Until the gag order expires maybe
2025-02-26 17:00:42
Verbal agreement would be tenuous
2025-02-26 17:31:42
not if they're charged as accomplices only
2025-03-01 10:57:06
The new effort for peace between the PKK and the Turkish state was initiated in October by President Recep Tayyip Erdoganâs coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli. The far-right politician suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if his group renounces violence and disbands.
2025-03-01 10:58:28
https://x.com/CPSwaziland/status/1684050915035344896
2025-03-01 10:59:47
The Communist Party of Swaziland calls for Release of Abdullah Ocalan
2025-03-01 17:20:22
Idk i donât think theyâll release him until the pkk disarms
2025-03-03 16:59:33
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114099480566604857
2025-03-04 00:08:17
General reductions in military spending or foreign aid that are not specifically targeted at Ukraine will not qualify. A qualifying action must clearly indicate an intent to reduce, restrict, or eliminate aid to Ukraine.
2025-03-04 01:44:40
A qualifying action must clearly indicate an intent to restrict aid to Ukraine.
2025-03-04 01:45:13
I think it prob has to yes due to this clause
2025-03-04 02:00:18
This can be proposed based on consensus of reporting. It is not premature.
2025-03-04 02:09:11
There is consensus of reporting due to the fact that there was an official statement from the white house with no attribution
2025-03-04 02:34:10
I proposed it as there is consensus of reporting and there was an anon white house statement to the whole press
2025-03-04 04:54:59
This was announced per US state media https://www.voanews.com/amp/trump-places-pause-on-us-aid-to-ukraine-/7994831.html
2025-03-04 05:07:26
There was a single statement given to all the white house press. It was described as a statement or announcement by multiple cred sources.
2025-03-04 06:32:16
One of the aid cut markets already resolved to yes, so the only question is whether there was an announcement, and there was. The White House press corps were all given a statement. This was described as an announcement or statement by multiple sources including Voice of America.
2025-03-04 06:47:23
This is the absolute least of the fuckery that ahappens on PM I'm sorry to say. 2 markets already resolved so there's already precedent indicating that this counts as "end" or "cut"
2025-03-04 07:09:11
A statement to print media corps at the White House counts. Not a single person here thinks it was a leak so maybe get off the high horse
2025-03-04 07:15:15
If a statement from the White House goes to every news org at the same time then it's not a leak.
2025-03-04 07:21:54
Most outlets printed the same statement which was without doubt an authorized disclosure
2025-03-04 07:46:21
when this resolves to yes you can join my lawsuit
2025-03-04 07:52:12
RIP disputors
2025-03-04 07:53:02
RIP disputorz
2025-03-04 07:53:36
see here https://polymarket.com/event/trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-before-april/trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-before-april
2025-03-04 07:56:09
not yet
2025-03-04 13:16:30
It wasnât a leak. It was a statement to the White House print media
2025-03-04 13:17:28
This wasnât a leak. It was a statement to the White House print media
2025-03-04 13:17:46
wasnât a leak. It was a statement to the White House print media
2025-03-04 13:36:03
We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution..
2025-03-04 13:36:24
All the White House print media used this statement
2025-03-04 13:41:29
President Donald Trump has placed a pause on aid to Ukraine, the White House announced late Monday. "The President has been clear that he is focused on peace,â a senior administration official told VOA in an email. The official is not being named, as is customary when engaging with reporters. âWe need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution."
2025-03-04 13:41:58
This statement was given to the entire White House print press
2025-03-04 13:42:31
President Donald Trump has placed a pause on aid to Ukraine, the White House announced late Monday. "The President has been clear that he is focused on peace,â a senior administration official told VOA in an email. The official is not being named, as is customary when engaging with reporters. âWe need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution."
2025-03-04 13:43:41
This statement was distributed to the entire White House print press. Unambiguously an authorized disclosure from an official
2025-03-04 14:35:27
Two cut/end markets already resolved yes
2025-03-04 16:34:23
Zelensky unfortunately needs to apologize for the sake of his country and because the EU will strongly encourage this
2025-03-04 16:36:43
Maybe, maybe not. But he should do it for his country.
2025-03-04 16:37:21
If only Zelensky was that smart
2025-03-04 16:47:13
found the retarded Russian scum
2025-03-04 16:59:59
you were warned babe
2025-03-04 17:00:27
One of the other cut markets specified that any restriction counts as a cut
2025-03-04 18:35:43
PM already decided lol
2025-03-05 15:08:15
never use the cash out button
2025-03-05 23:02:10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
2025-03-05 23:30:53
mommy and daddy fighting
2025-03-06 06:11:34
The Palestinian suspect who was arrested placed explosives. https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/defense/867564/
2025-03-06 06:12:44
The case is still under a gag order as of now
2025-03-06 07:16:05
they were
2025-03-06 07:19:15
article says arrested "soon after" and previous reporting indicated early on Feb 21
2025-03-06 07:20:18
the 3 mentioned in this article are the 3 from feb 21
2025-03-06 07:21:48
confirmation needed to resolve
2025-03-06 07:23:26
mistranslation -- shabak = israeli internal security acronym, shabach = illegal alien acronym
2025-03-06 07:26:49
was surprised you sold but i can see how a bird in the hand better than 2 in the bush
2025-03-06 14:30:50
A Palestinian source tells Sky News in Arabic that the U.S. proposed to Hamas to release 10 living hostages in exchange for extending the Gaza ceasefire by two months, reopening the crossings and resuming the entry of humanitarian aid. The source said Hamas is still studying its response to the American proposal.
2025-03-06 23:59:23
Lmao
2025-03-07 02:36:09
Kan retracted its report and replaced it with one saying the bomber remains at large lmao
2025-03-07 11:33:59
Russia, are you on discord?
2025-03-07 17:02:27
Yeah
2025-03-07 17:26:27
Is there no end date on the smart contract?
2025-03-08 13:23:38
we're waiting for more information to be available about a guy who was arrested that Friday
2025-03-08 15:12:28
this is insufficient still
2025-03-08 18:43:18
Bet more babe
2025-03-08 21:01:08
lol
2025-03-08 21:01:53
There is always US army in southern israel. There is a small air defense base
2025-03-08 21:43:11
did you know that Trump said there won't be any troops in Gaza?
2025-03-08 22:06:17
Whatâs your username?
2025-03-08 22:58:02
no, just what the police say
2025-03-09 00:00:31
gag order was not lifted
2025-03-09 00:00:49
for the Palestinian who was arrested
2025-03-09 02:23:03
Israel occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and annexed them in 1981, for reference.
2025-03-09 03:38:33
it was really just channel 12 that reported the 3rd arrest?
2025-03-09 03:44:45
https://www.mako.co.il/news-military/2025_q1/Article-9f5b5f1c6972591026.htm
2025-03-09 03:44:55
there was no misquote
2025-03-10 23:00:27
Probably any remaining gag orders will lapse this month
2025-03-11 10:46:39
It should resolve this month
2025-03-11 15:42:25
Welcome new yes holders
2025-03-11 20:31:11
"Since the ceasefire took effect on January 19, the total number of Palestinians killed has risen to 137."
2025-03-11 23:53:56
Rules are made to be broken đ
2025-03-11 23:58:36
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-showing-some-readiness-to-agree-to-long-extension-of-ceasefire-israeli-source-says/
2025-03-12 00:05:19
Most reliable source in Israel right there
2025-03-12 11:04:40
Imo a withdrawal remains unlikely. What we have now is a dedicated forum for diplomacy which will lead to withdrawal when the other terms of the ceasefire are implemented (at the earliest)
2025-03-12 11:06:28
Unlikely within the market period i mean
2025-03-12 11:31:24
Whatâs your basis for saying thatâs the actual agreement?
2025-03-12 11:33:41
The ceasefire plan calls for 10,000 Lebanese troops in the south, which are now scheduled to deploy towards the end of 2025 following training
2025-03-12 11:35:13
Normalization is a longer term project Iâm afraid. Prisoner release and border demarcation will be pursued in the short term
2025-03-12 11:48:54
As part of the Lebanese Army's plan to recruit 6,000 soldiers to join the military units deployed in the south, Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menassa will present a request in tomorrow's cabinet session to recruit 4,500 soldiers in three phases during 2025, at a rate of 1,500 soldiers in each phase. Former Defense Minister Maurice Slim had previously received government approval in August 2024 to recruit 1,500 soldiers, and soldiers began joining the specialized units at the beginning of this year after completing their training.
2025-03-12 11:53:32
The heart wants many things
2025-03-12 13:42:46
US will only require Israeli withdrawal at the final step of implementation imo. The PoW and border demarcation working groups are there to give the Lebanese government a slow drip of wins in the coming months instead of full israeli withdrawal..
2025-03-12 13:43:49
Israeli deployment has political and military importance with regard to Israeli residents returning to their homes in the north and the recovery of those communities.
2025-03-12 14:05:34
U.S. agreed to an extended Israeli presence. Thatâs my read on the situation. Youâre welcome to bet against
2025-03-12 18:59:36
Ynet: Cautious optimism from Doha: After Witkoff joined the talks, Israeli and American officials spoke of slight progress. The mediators proposed a mediation proposal for a small truce to allow time for negotiations, and the possibility of releasing 10 hostages is also being considered - but in several truces.
2025-03-14 00:50:55
A joint investigation by the police and the General Security Service revealed that on February 20, 2025, Abd al-Karim Amer Hassan Tsanobar, a resident of Nablus, decided to carry out a murderous attack in Israel by planting explosive devices on buses in Bat Yam. Tsanobar, who did not hold a valid residence permit, entered Israeli territory by a route still unknown to the investigating authorities and arrived in Bat Yam in the evening. According to the indictment, the terrorist placed several explosive devices on buses, and then contacted the defendant through an intermediary whose identity is known to the authorities. The two agreed that the defendant would pick up the terrorist from 8 Isaac Harif Street in Bat Yam and drive him to Ariel for 400 shekels
2025-03-14 00:51:59
The terrorist, who had changed clothes in a nearby alley before getting into the car, arrived at the meeting point, shook the defendant's hand, and got into the car. The defendant began driving toward Ariel. Upon reaching their destination, the terrorist asked the defendant to continue toward Zutra Zakaria in the area. Although the defendant initially claimed he was not going there, he agreed to continue for an additional 50 shekels. After passing the Tapuach intersection, the defendant dropped the terrorist off about 40 meters from the location and left. The evidence collected during the investigation includes video footage from the buses documenting the terrorist placing objects under the seats, testimonies from the terrorist's family members who identified him in the videos
2025-03-14 00:52:19
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/law/article/17492798
2025-03-14 00:52:43
"the individual believed to have planted the explosive devices has not yet been apprehended." --- https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/crime-in-israel/article-845191
2025-03-14 00:54:24
See also: https://www.timesofisrael.com/2-jewish-israelis-palestinian-said-arrested-in-connection-with-botched-bus-bombings/
2025-03-14 11:18:47
Israel Defense Minister Katz: "The IDF will remain at the 5 points that control the security strip in Lebanon indefinitely for the sake of protecting the residents of the north and regardless of any negotiations on disputed points on the border. The uncompromising enforcement policy against Hezbollah violations in Lebanon will continue with full force. Our job is to protect the residents of the north from any threat, and that is what we will do."
2025-03-14 14:55:37
By ending General License 8, the Trump admin has instituted a surprisingly substantial increase in sanctions on Russian state banks.
2025-03-14 15:08:56
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-sanctions-russian-oil-gas-banking-sectors/
2025-03-14 15:10:02
Regarding General License 8: https://www.thompsonhinesmartrade.com/2024/04/ofac-again-extends-russia-related-general-license-no-8-regarding-transactions-related-to-energy-3/
2025-03-14 15:23:21
These sanctions were never actual before. They were under continuous waiver since February 2022. As per the reporting, these restrictions are new, willful, and major.
2025-03-14 15:26:18
"The Trump administration is placing more restrictions on Russia's oil, gas and banking sectors by further restricting Russian access to U.S. payment systems, according to four people familiar with the plans. "
2025-03-14 15:26:55
"Before, Russia could access U.S. payment systems for energy transactions, and now they can't. Sounds pretty new to me!" https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1350121919374037135
2025-03-14 15:34:33
I'm seeing 3 votes that it happened and some discussion
2025-03-14 16:18:03
"This is one of the dumber rules cuck attempts in a while. Credible reporting says it's a sanction and it's a new never before used sanction, it's yes"
2025-03-14 17:02:28
đ
2025-03-15 14:41:22
Hamas: "Since the beginning of the ceasefire (on January 19), more than 150 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of the crimes of the occupation." Least violent middle eastern ceasefire
2025-03-15 22:08:56
the Prime Minister instructed the negotiating team to prepare for the continuation of the talks in accordance with the mediators' response to Witkoff's proposal for the immediate release of 11 live abductees and half of the dead.
2025-03-15 22:14:46
(X)
2025-03-15 22:54:06
did you just spell an r with an e
2025-03-16 00:17:46
I thought it was representing a really exaggerated Hebrew r lol but that makes more sense
2025-03-18 00:40:17
Wow
2025-03-18 00:54:05
Can be proposed imo
2025-03-18 01:01:55
We can resolve based on the Israeli statement alone
2025-03-18 01:11:24
I donât think that happened since the start of the war
2025-03-18 01:12:19
Really when?
2025-03-18 01:12:50
Crossing the border i meant
2025-03-18 01:16:09
I thought it was a reasonable question but yes should be good to go here
2025-03-18 01:24:37
OK missed these reports. Per Wikipedia seems these guys didnât make it to shore tho. Most recent ground incident in zikim land area on Wikipedia was October 16 2023
2025-03-18 01:33:23
?
2025-03-18 05:06:35
What was the Saudi outlet?
2025-03-18 05:16:07
Al hadath is fairly reliable for military reporting. However i donât believe this story ever appeared there
2025-03-18 05:24:33
Iâm guessing it came from some shitty Saudi telegram that she subscribes to
2025-03-18 18:29:33
do you have a link to the statement?
2025-03-18 18:32:47
thanks
2025-03-18 23:11:22
interesting
2025-03-19 21:01:21
He actually said he's open to discussing any issue with countries that recognize them, including Gaza refugees
2025-03-20 05:08:24
They did 4 times last year
2025-03-20 11:09:10
Probably undervalued but Iâm letting the price bottom
2025-03-20 11:36:52
Either that or youâve made a healthy contribution to Zelenskyyâs cocaine budget. Weâll see
2025-03-20 17:29:38
Oh god why would you post this instead of dumping
2025-03-20 17:30:05
Cryptowhale and I just took out your exit liquidity
2025-03-20 17:39:21
senior Israeli officials say that Washington asked Jerusalem not to respond to the Houthis' firing, and to "leave it to them" to deal with them. This is what Ynet has learned. It is likely that Israel will comply with the American request to avoid retaliatory action, as was previously carried out by the Air Force . The attacks carried out by the force are very complex due to the great distance between Israel and Yemen, and require aerial refueling. Although they were a show of force for the capabilities and long arm of the IDF, it is easier for the Americans, who launched the special operation against the Houthis this week, to attack with aircraft that are available in larger quantities on aircraft carriers.
2025-03-20 17:54:55
I agree, maybe if someone dies or the Houthis cause alerts every day for a week or something
2025-03-21 05:01:46
J ust checked out your profile and decided to fade you on Ukraine territorial concession đ
2025-03-21 11:41:50
Well this was fun
2025-03-21 13:12:55
They wonât announce anything and they strenuously denied it
2025-03-21 17:14:05
no lying in the comments plz
2025-03-21 22:19:11
This is all cause of one missile?
2025-03-21 22:49:22
everything i'm seeing says one missile? seems like they're tring to get one off per night
2025-03-21 23:04:12
yeah they don't know where the long range ballistic missiles will land so they have to ping the whole region
2025-03-22 00:59:19
I donât think Ukraine will accept it any time soon
2025-03-22 01:01:03
BREAKING: Houthi media report loud explosions caused by U.S. airstrikes on Hodeidah, west Yemen.
2025-03-22 01:05:13
Iâm sure the Houthis will win the next round
2025-03-22 10:11:46
https://polymarket.com/event/is-earth-flat-2025?tid=1742638288444
2025-03-22 10:12:10
New market that might interest you
2025-03-22 16:40:24
Neither Israel nor Ukraine meet the definition of "proxy"
2025-03-22 16:40:47
Over the weekend, the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes against over 200 targets in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria, according to the military.
2025-03-23 06:18:18
Several Houthi field commanders and senior members of missile unit eliminated in US strikes overnight. via @N12News
2025-03-24 13:24:22
Idk tbh
2025-03-24 19:37:19
Saudi Al-Arabiya reports a series of 13 U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets in the Saada Governorate, north Yemen.
2025-03-24 19:37:43
Group chat is wilding rn
2025-03-25 03:01:18
The one with me heggy and tulsi
2025-03-25 04:27:25
Itâs a signal but we had to delete it when it got reported
2025-03-25 15:33:16
Is Russia really gonna agree with this: The Ukrainian side emphasizes that all movement by Russia of its military vessels outside of Eastern part of the Black Sea will constitute violation of the spirit of this agreement, will be regarded as violation of the commitment to ensure safe navigation of the Black Sea and threat to the national security of Ukraine. In this case Ukraine will have full right to exercise right to self-defense.
2025-03-26 04:40:32
Link?
2025-03-26 05:10:01
The United States has continued airstrikes in northern Yemen, with reports of at least 17 raids in Saada province. According to Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah TV, the attacks hit the city of Saada and surrounding areas. In addition to these strikes, the news outlet reported two airstrikes in the Al Sufyan district of Amran governorate.
2025-03-26 11:54:45
The source confirmed that "Washington is well aware that Lebanon is unable to normalize its relations with Israel, and is pressuring it not to object to Israeli violations as a condition for reaching an agreement."
2025-03-26 11:55:00
Asharq al awsat
2025-03-26 12:09:20
Withdrawal will be at the last step, after the Lebanese army secures the south
2025-03-26 12:26:38
Thatâs the opposite of what this source says
2025-03-26 12:26:55
Weâll see
2025-03-27 02:49:26
Thatâs not the same as it being agreed secretly. Thatâs one aspect may have been resolvable at one time
2025-03-27 03:28:01
Check the rules
2025-03-27 13:33:09
In fact i think the attacks during the ceasefire were only on aviation?
2025-03-27 16:44:14
The Houthi ceasefire announcement on Jan 19 seems to have applied to all ships except those Israeli-flagged or wholly Israeli-owned.
2025-03-27 17:04:11
seems there were about 3 SAM attacks on US military planes and none on ships.
2025-03-28 09:55:57
This deal was never in place
2025-03-28 09:58:13
It was rejected by Lebanon and the USA
2025-03-28 11:09:08
Israel wanted to extend the withdrawal deadline and take until the new deadline to withdraw to the extent that they did last month. This was rejected by Lebanon and the USA.
2025-03-28 16:30:29
Which?
2025-03-28 17:46:51
Gaza Ceasefire talks got more serious
2025-03-31 02:22:40
Yes cope is now registering new accounts on Substack to push their FUD. Circus is in full effect.
2025-03-31 11:37:48
https://mrozi.substack.com/p/bitcoin-reserve-why-the-confusion
2025-03-31 12:32:58
Name your top three favorite wallets in the National btc reserve. Iâll start
2025-03-31 12:53:48
We donât need a wallet address per se but we need sourcing that one exists
2025-03-31 13:26:11
I'm afraid if you read the EO carefully, it only refers to reserve wallets in the future, and it is clear that any current BTC holdings must undergo a clearing procedure before they are eligible for deposit to the planned reserve.
2025-03-31 18:20:33
they think if they whine hard enough on discord PM will overrule UMA a month later.
2025-03-31 18:23:08
The executive order lays out a timeline for implementation extending beyond the market deadline
2025-03-31 18:25:16
Dealing with yestards is quite frustrating I admit but I imagine being underwater would be more frustrating
2025-03-31 18:46:26
Reminder to yes holders: I'm willing to provide exit liquidity above FV to anyone who renounces trump and swears allegiance to the us dollar
2025-03-31 20:40:35
wow who proposed
2025-03-31 20:45:02
lol bro trying for a wild 25x
2025-03-31 20:47:20
Reminder: UMA already rejected France and Slovenia and there is less evidence for the USA...by a lot!
2025-03-31 20:50:31
they didn't do that?
2025-03-31 20:54:41
they pretty much did
2025-03-31 20:57:34
blacksky maybe don't knowingly scam people to pump yes
2025-03-31 21:26:14
gotta use your alt bro
2025-03-31 21:27:19
Wow Alphax smartest yes holder confirmed
2025-03-31 21:36:21
Yes holders the tide just went out and you're swimming naked
2025-03-31 23:55:59
absolutely not
2025-04-01 00:00:27
Don't worry guys, we can still get Polymarket to reclarify against their clarification! There's precedent, bigly
2025-04-01 00:03:06
Hundo percent
2025-04-01 05:54:33
Something always happens
2025-04-01 16:30:04
idk what those words mean but probably yeah
2025-04-01 23:40:20
This market is a parlay bet
2025-04-02 17:22:06
Did you guys notice all the Syria recognition markets at k*lshi resolved the same way, in particular with USA no?
2025-04-02 17:33:55
No the resolution source was governmental sources and they resolved Russia to yes same as pm
2025-04-02 17:37:49
Is k*lshi also a scam platform?
2025-04-02 17:39:57
The U.S. recognizes syria market at klshi resolved to no. Maybe you should harass them too
2025-04-02 18:05:35
Youâre delusional
2025-04-02 18:11:43
Some bonus racism, nice one
2025-04-02 19:54:43
A sanction on a Russian government asset is obviously a sanction on the Russian government. Letâs not go crazy folks.
2025-04-02 20:55:54
i'm more like 0.05/99.95
2025-04-02 22:12:59
Accidental strikes count :D
2025-04-02 22:13:58
new sanctions of any form against Russia
2025-04-02 22:22:23
If itâs against a Russian government entity itâs against Russia. Youâre playing semantic games
2025-04-02 22:31:31
Itâs not allegations, itâs a fact
2025-04-02 22:32:28
It is directly owned by a Russian state enterprise
2025-04-02 23:02:27
Counts
2025-04-03 01:27:01
Yes it is. Gtlk is a Russian state enterprise
2025-04-03 01:55:34
I think yes is well undervalued
2025-04-03 03:14:40
The sanctioned company AM Asia M6 is a Russian state enterprise. Any sanctions on it constitute sanctions on the Russian state. This is 2+2=4
2025-04-03 03:26:54
Great argument
2025-04-03 09:34:36
Wrong, the company is owned by Russia
2025-04-03 09:38:09
Thatâs incorrect and illogical
2025-04-03 17:12:08
I can assure you you'll fail to find sanctions like this on state corporations of, for example, countries in NATO
2025-04-04 00:56:18
honestly i'm nowhere near car's level in that regard nor some others. maybe i got out of a few dicey mideast positions since that's my area of expertise
2025-04-04 00:57:54
Trump obviously doesn't know everything the USG executive branch does. Barely remembers what he did yesterday
2025-04-04 00:59:04
Obviously this sanctions announcement was explicitly and primarily aimed at the Houthis. That doesn't change the fact that they literally sanctioned Russia at the same time.
2025-04-04 02:10:14
Trump doesn't know half of what the executive branch does, speaking generously. And Russia wouldn't say that.
2025-04-04 02:27:41
actually the gaza ceasefire is quite likely
2025-04-04 04:49:18
If someone disputed it was to lock your money up and make you sell for 99.7
2025-04-04 05:06:23
Friend requested you
2025-04-04 10:16:51
It does when you realize the rules arenât satisfied and likely wonât be until the week after the bet ends at the earliest
2025-04-04 11:56:05
Check the rules
2025-04-04 12:08:53
Since youâre blatantly scamming this market you donât really have a leg to stand on here. If Uma is regarded enough to say a sanction on an soe doesnât count they might be regarded enough to say this is a yes because tariffs are explicit in the rules
2025-04-04 12:14:43
Youâre holding a market open over some bs and you have been obfuscating the fact that the sanctioned company is state owned
2025-04-04 12:21:01
IMO you are scamming a market open and you should feel moderately bad.
2025-04-04 12:22:03
lol not sure why location is supposed to mean something. It is a literal arm of the Russian state
2025-04-04 15:37:53
I didnât sell off most of it
2025-04-04 18:24:08
https://x.com/barakravid/status/1908207710501261749?s=46
2025-04-05 00:04:19
Well thatâs just the latest news. I actually made like 110k on the previous ceasefire. This one is dicey but i think my shares are worth holding at this price
2025-04-05 00:07:26
Have like 70k shares including Yemen it looks like