Account Information
Name:
Tenebrus7
Pseudonym:
Natural-Vacation
Created:
2024-06-25 10:42:53
Last Activity:
4 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@Tenebrus87
profile-image-561226-af4d2e36-9a46-4216-8305-ab6d8c97d1ce.png
Total Profit
$152,191
Blockchain trace (4)
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8 📤 seed Tenebrus7 |
seed, sender, user | Polygon | USDC.e | $5,625.19 | 4 |
| 0xd0c75522ff91b6965a73a4ce7b197492a5361ec5 seed Tenebrus7 |
seed | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0x1ef96c38efbaea0a5650217e318b0a2b20e6adc1 📤 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | $5,595.62 | 3 |
| 0xa7d164e5a746c91170129bff677b74a9be5c8749 📤 🐥🥚🐣 |
recipient | Polygon | USDC | $24.99 | 1 |
Stats
Portfolio value
$283,479.07
Markets traded
4,353
Trades
4,353
Largest win
$57,938.60
Profile views
7,152
Join date
2024-06-25 10:42:53
All-time rank
1307
All-time PnL
$152,190.71
All-time volume
$73,082,637.56
All-time profit
$152,190.71
Lifetime volume
$73,082,637.56
PnL series latest
$151,820.98
PnL series start
$145,759.81
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$14,892.76
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 184754.465713 | $57,938.60 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 215172.913182 | $47,348.26 |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Yes | 32651.762256 | $25,132.82 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 379821.292938 | $-52,575.26 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 271429.291319 | $-46,963.78 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 102149.739005 | $-37,737.59 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 14722.907 | $0.90 | $0.95 | $13,972.04 | $676.43 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | No | 12788.2854 | $0.84 | $0.97 | $12,359.88 | $1,634.85 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 12749.9701 | $0.86 | $0.88 | $11,200.85 | $171.33 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 14123.0803 | $0.70 | $0.73 | $10,380.46 | $459.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 10865.572 | $0.92 | $0.94 | $10,267.97 | $238.30 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 184754.465713 | $57,938.60 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 215172.913182 | $47,348.26 |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Yes | 32651.762256 | $25,132.82 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 81725.824697 | $19,847.88 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 46405.083206 | $17,892.30 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.81 | 57.89 | $46.89 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | Yes | $0.87 | 303.75 | $264.26 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | Yes | $0.87 | 40 | $34.80 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | Yes | $0.87 | 40 | $34.80 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | Yes | $0.87 | 384.615383 | $334.62 |
Recent trades (4353)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | No | $0.91 | 477.51 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | No | $0.68 | 23.15 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | No | $0.77 | 264.48 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | No | $0.19 | 784.59 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $0.83 | 6514.78 |
Comments
2024-08-10 09:00:18
Agree, the Others Yes betters clearly have not read the rules, just looked if Tani rat Tola is listed separately. This need to resolve to No on other!
2024-08-10 09:00:29
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any athlete other than Benson Kipruto (KEN), Victor Kiplangat (UGA), Tamirat Tola (ETH), Eliud Kipchoge (KEN), Deresa Geleta (ETH), Alexander Mutiso (KEN), Kenenisa Bekele (ETH), or Abdi Nageeye (NED) wins a Gold medal in the Men’s Marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
2024-08-10 11:02:25
Other disputed now, it should clearly resolve to No.
2024-08-10 11:04:30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any athlete other than Benson Kipruto (KEN), Victor Kiplangat (UGA), Tamirat Tola (ETH), Eliud Kipchoge (KEN), Deresa Geleta (ETH), Alexander Mutiso (KEN), Kenenisa Bekele (ETH), or Abdi Nageeye (NED) wins a Gold medal in the Men’s Marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
2024-08-10 20:23:22
Thanks for resolving it correctly!
2024-08-21 15:21:22
Good example for "No" actually. Trump was not even thinking about it, hence no offline conversations happening in the background. He would not endorse for sth in return, hence even if he does will take a while. Nice multi conditional bet (1) offline alignment between the two party needs to happen (2) endorsement needs to happen (3) Trump needs to ein (50 equity atm) and (4) RFK needs to get that position. Have already quite some exposure otherwise would bely more. Fair value around 90ct No imo.
2024-08-22 20:46:22
Did not see that market coming, did not expect a high overlap of polymarket betters and Ethan followers :D
2024-08-29 18:50:34
It will take time, a lot :)
2024-08-30 15:30:17
Such great odds now, will still happen 1 out 10 times for sure.
2024-08-30 15:47:10
Make it happen! @ Oatmeal, pushing all day the Yes story but now You sold oO
2024-08-30 15:50:05
Agree, just Car doing his thing well and pushing the No price up.
2024-08-30 22:12:16
Damn sold the 4ct yes shares at 8 ct ;(
2024-09-01 06:56:13
My DJI drone if shot down makes a bigger blast - lol. Well plaid CAR again pushing the market, but does not count according to rules
2024-09-01 07:19:17
It is about credible reporting, Reuter citing: drone debris. [link removed]
2024-09-01 07:34:22
Exactly, will not be sufficient to resolve to yes. Indeed, if so sure, propose, will be disputed as too early. Have you ever seen a drone hit - the plant would be gone. And now as many drones are gone, not so likely they will hit again soon. Need to accept with my No bet the price will stay bad after this attempt for a while now. But clearly no hit confirmed.
2024-09-01 09:45:06
Even if legit, clearly shot down.
2024-09-01 09:54:15
Instead of posting the same video again and again, rather buy the No limit orders waiting, poor guy.
2024-09-01 10:58:28
Nice exit Car at 97, well still waiting at credible reporting, all states yet shot down drone
2024-09-01 11:12:13
Downed drone, too much equity already in this market to buy more, waiting for prices to adjust again now: [link removed]
2024-09-04 11:26:52
After the scam - trump will not want to be associated with it anytime soon. Even if a token launches, it will be his son's.
2024-09-04 12:11:58
Post the link/pdf
2024-09-04 12:34:36
The actual leaked white paper, can't find it anywhere. Just many many sites copying from each other claiming there is one leaked.
2024-09-04 12:36:41
Btw still think your trading strategy is good and pushing prices is just part of the game of making a profit, just on the other side here ;)
2024-09-04 14:38:59
No, that's exactly the point - no where to be found. And all trump himself ever did was just reposted the X handle once the WLFI with a video totally unrelated. Even if they ever launch a token not enough for involvement. Same as he would repost about Bitcoin. Was he involved in the creation of Bitcoin. Nope
2024-09-05 14:48:00
Link
2024-09-05 15:39:43
Love it!
2024-09-05 20:23:09
Potentially someone trying out an API to trade
2024-09-07 11:47:13
Scheduled as planned, released by ABC news : https://abc.com/news/5e38600c-4732-4cd2-a99c-3dedfa81beb0/category/1138628
2024-09-11 20:59:50
Tik Tok, tik Tok everyday going down till 0 mountain my friend.
2024-09-12 20:08:01
214 Billions difference in Market cap.
2024-09-12 20:17:39
One 6.7% sounds small, but if one looks at the total money that need to be moved to achieve that which in this case is the 214 Billions it's a lot
2024-09-12 20:18:27
Ofc your post and approach is very valid to your trading strategy, I like it actually, just putting into $ perspective.
2024-09-13 07:42:56
Even if they announce on Monday the launch of a coin it needs to be fully deployed before election to resolve to YES: Network Activation: The coin must be active on the blockchain network. And: Operational Status: The coin should be functional and operable, meaning transactions can be executed, and its smart contract is properly interacting with the blockchain as intended.
2024-09-13 12:19:46
RugRadio: from our side, it's an interview. Trump will buzzword again 10 times crypto and Bitcoin and will talk about not creating a federal reserve but stockpile,l and even if he says WLFI will launch a coin it will be in the future.
2024-09-14 12:48:14
182 Billions in Market cap ahead for apple, iPhone 16 pre sales started Friday, 20th of September official sale which can push the apple stock further. It can happen for sure, but no exit liquidity for the No holders that are counting the days and trying to push the price down to sell.
2024-09-18 21:18:01
It's one thing to engage on crypto with people in the crypto bubble another to talk in a rally about it where 95% of the audience has no clue about it.
2024-09-18 21:27:46
Then buy some NO, in case you are being sarcastic tell me why :). The location Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum fits 15000 people. And how many of those random people will be interested in crypto oO
2024-09-19 22:00:09
In before Car pushes his yes shares with a link to X when an airstrike hits ;): For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered
2024-09-20 06:15:00
Haha 😅, I saw your other bet as well, still I found it viable to defend the no price already just in case and for a little amusement as well :), as said earlier I like your approach, just not when I am on the other side
2024-09-23 17:13:28
Thought I can get more Conrad even cheaper, but still got some. It is Pennsylvania he will talk about what Conrad Kamala will do to ban fracking:[link removed]
2024-09-30 15:54:43
Funny how liquidity bots fill the large spread and every YES holder pushing like it would be necessary for the so visible Tanks to rush at night now. No surprise needed here at all, the can form, take their time and march in the next days.
2024-09-30 17:50:04
So a closed military zone im Israel= equal invasion, sure ....
2024-09-30 18:45:26
9:15 hours, but agree
2024-10-01 06:45:07
Check Activity YES holders, the most knowledgeable Yes holder HaterLozer sold all his Yes shares at 70-80ct. Still one to get out
2024-10-01 07:39:00
You are a fun guy :), still unsure when you are joking vs when you are not (e.i. the other comment about you being a very early crypto bro and being retired and this is just play money :).
2024-10-02 10:25:22
Haha exactly, this market only resolves to Yes: September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. ET is New York time zone or in 6 am their time zone on October 1st.
2024-10-02 10:49:37
So fun to see all these NO holders dreaming to get rich quickly on this one .
2024-10-03 08:40:13
Pump und dump is over, it has been ruled too early. Which other new evidence do Yes holders think we find now X days later that the small raids in September were an invasion. If ruled too early now, will be ruled NO in 15 hours.
2024-10-03 08:42:18
Why would I if I can get No at 87
2024-10-03 08:44:49
If Yes would be a viable solution for too early wouldn't have dropped so much but rather like the Maduro market to 80 first and then slowly going down with more evidence. All the yes holders hope for is another pump and dump in the 30s
2024-10-03 08:53:20
Wait and see what happens once US traders wake up and once money is freed up from the enter market, will trade at 95 NO at 4PM CET - time to double your shares and get out still ;)
2024-10-03 10:13:19
Agree, let them pump and dream to get rich like in the entered market. Will buy more if it goes up further.
2024-10-03 12:21:37
World leader.. lfmao
2024-10-04 06:46:20
We have (1) IDF saying targeted raids, (2) we have Hizbollah saying nothing at all (3) some western media where no one was there, quoting IDF raids ( and some give for klick baiting the headline "Invade".
2024-10-04 08:08:07
Small raids don't equal : intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon
2024-10-04 08:41:22
Spending so much time for 346 yes shares, must be a sad life, the time put in could easily make you more working stocking shelves:D
2024-10-04 14:18:16
If it resolves to Yes maybe, if it resolves to: too early at the time of proposal will go to Zero here. The November market can then resolve to YES later still
2024-10-04 14:22:46
Buy then the free 5% then in the other market, if you read discord and Uma there arguments for both too early and yes. This market here was at close to 90yes then voted too early and moved to 5ct. The yes holders panicked once and now pump for X return
2024-10-04 14:35:23
So true the amount of YES posts correlate with people buying post 30th of September and the price drop after the ruling
2024-10-05 08:23:51
Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.
2024-10-05 08:30:16
Look at the evidence in UMA, has closed Too early P4, First time - no new evidence in the hours from the first vote till deadline besides raids, hence logical consequences for Sept is NO :[link removed]
2024-10-05 08:31:29
Plus the only thing that changed in the last 24 hours is November market closing and price goes from 20ct to 60ct, hence literally the YES holders don't believe the evidence the provide until November closed
2024-10-05 10:01:59
Imagine posting an article from 4th of October for a September market....
2024-10-05 10:27:50
Why did the market then drop on the 1st of October to 6ct after ruled too early? If it was so clear in the media it was an invasion by the 30th?
2024-10-05 10:39:54
Difference of small raids in the night of 30th, vs intent to establish control on the 2nd of Oct
2024-10-05 11:14:23
Just the UN on October 1st
2024-10-05 11:14:55
Check evidence provided by Domer on UMA,
2024-10-05 11:53:34
So much looking forward seeing the YES betters that bought after Oct first complaining how rigged the site and the system is and how unfair the world is.
2024-10-05 11:55:27
How has more experience with UMA votes and similar cases you or them. And who has made more money you or the guy losing 2.5MM and still able to bet 1MM. Tough question
2024-10-05 12:22:04
[link removed]
2024-10-05 13:06:42
Are you able to read beyond headlines?:
2024-10-05 13:06:47
Israel has also launched small special forces operations into southern Lebanon ahead of a potential ground offensive, an Israeli official told NBC News. Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister, said the “next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.”
2024-10-05 18:17:49
November market money inflow - take the 40% equity which should be at 70%+ , ty all.
2024-10-06 08:23:27
Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...
2024-10-06 08:24:57
We will see, arguments for both sides, feels like 50:50 now.
2024-10-06 08:41:37
The comment section is not for the process and if hold enough UMA token to make an impact on the vote lfmao.
2024-10-06 08:42:45
Only the following actions in October made it true, if stopped at the deadline by end of September no invasion would have commenced.
2024-10-06 13:15:48
Mission Northern Arrow and the IDF speech does not contradict that first ground raids started without a goal to establish control then invasion happening later. Mission Northern Arrow was ongoing for a long time including the air strikes before
2024-10-06 13:26:27
Why are posting instead of buying more - same question.
2024-10-06 13:56:34
All in on any bet is stupid, simple bank roll management
2024-10-06 14:32:04
No one claims they are there for fun if it would only be about intentions the market would not exist or would be at 100% yes from start. Still the small raids in empty areas after air strikes can't be classified as invasion yes. In how many countries did US send troops, did they Invade all, nope
2024-10-06 14:44:13
Yes some of US actions resulted invasion like here but timelime is important, not the first men send could be called invasion. Like here the invasion is clear but the timeline and actions matter. It is definitely debatable.
2024-10-06 17:07:41
If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
2024-10-06 17:12:18
It is not the same amount of people, tanks, forces, they enteted, retreated and invaded
2024-10-07 11:45:28
Can't withhold and quote my comment from yesterday ;) : If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
2024-10-09 13:39:28
Good thing with a lower price for now here is that makes it more likely for whales to enter here and try to push the main market on the day above 50%. But quite capital heavy, waiting for Yatsen etc to join the game or 50pence to buy more. Come on guys good time to get into the market here :)
2024-10-11 21:20:42
What happened to your 70k Yes position in that market? If I recall correctly oo? I am always on the wrong side of volatility in this market oo
2024-10-13 20:59:05
Nice someone market bought No, did mind to get out.
2024-10-14 14:04:18
Plus CNN had subtitles saying teacher already live.
2024-10-15 14:55:44
Quite likely to be voted P4, too early now. Imagine Trump going to Joe Rogan being asked about his involvement then stating he is not involved and just gets a commission like for any other deal he does.
2024-10-15 14:57:47
Just no need and enough reason for UMA to clearly vote YES or No at this stage
2024-10-17 08:29:59
Best analysis of the current situation and what's going on: [link removed]
2024-12-05 21:49:47
Lol, got fucked in the election, need it now oo
2024-12-05 21:52:33
Put a order at 20 and fine to sell it :)
2024-12-07 14:27:50
Lol
2024-12-08 07:05:01
From IDFs own statement, no
2024-12-08 07:05:07
IDF: In accordance with the situational assessment following the recent events in Syria, including the entry of armed personnel into the buffer zone, the IDF has deployed forces in the buffer zone and in several other places necessary for its defense, to ensure the safety of the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel. We emphasize that the IDF is not interfering with the internal events in Syria. The IDF will continue to operate as long as necessary in order to preserve the buffer zone and defend Israel and its civilians.
2024-12-08 07:43:38
Already Israeli territory.
2024-12-08 07:43:42
[link removed].org/wiki/United_States_recognition_of_the_Golan_Heights_as_part_of_Israel#:~:text=Signed%20into%20effect%20by%20the,military%20occupation%20since%20the%201967
2024-12-08 09:02:50
DMZ, nothing to do with establish control
2024-12-08 10:20:10
In the Golan heights, read th rules these are excluded. By US accepted as Israel territory
2024-12-08 10:24:24
Still part of Golan Heights : For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory
2024-12-08 10:29:35
Airstrikes are no ground invasion lol
2024-12-08 11:08:41
Well Trump/US accepted Golan ad part of Israel, the rules exclude Golan, so with the current situation UMA rules No. But tanks move slowly, let's see what happens in a few days.
2024-12-08 13:13:50
US waking up to 6 hour old news, pump it again, does not change that Golan is excluded by the rules of that market.
2024-12-08 13:25:00
IDF: In accordance with the situational assessment in the Northern Command, it was determined that schools will carry out educational activity online in four Druze communities in the northern Golan Heights (Buq'ata, Ein Qiniye, Mas'ade, and Majdal Shams). Kindergartens will continue educational activity as usual. Educational activity in the rest of the Golan Heights remains unchanged
2024-12-08 16:02:24
No credible reporting, NT, Reuters, WSJ is or will be calling this an invasion. Something completely different in terms of actions compared to Lebanon market in September/October
2024-12-08 17:40:54
IDF: Following the current situational assessment and as part of enhanced preparedness in the Golan Heights over the past 24 hours, IDF ground and air troops have been deployed in the area. In addition, all defense authorities have been mobilized on the home front. IDF troops from the 474th Brigade are operating along the border, focusing on intelligence gathering and defending the residents of Israel, particularly the Golan Heights. Efforts are also being made to fortify the engineering barrier along the border, known as "New East."
2024-12-10 12:51:31
Two day old article... and DMZ, getting scared and trying to exit oo
2024-12-10 14:37:32
You don't understand how this works :), UMA never resolve this to yes. A Yes holder proposed yes it got disputed and UMA voted too early. Nothing has changed since then, will be too early in the next vote. Unless Israel marches further with intention to establish control which they haven't.
2024-12-11 10:35:38
gg Wray won't wait to be kicked out by Trump.
2024-12-11 11:38:18
So much coping of Yes holders posting old info.
2024-12-11 19:57:04
Yes but only after 20th of January, he steps down first, No wins :)
2024-12-13 09:07:24
And only evidence until time of proposal count, nothing has changed yet, hence will go again P4 too early. While of course something can change in the next two days which won't be considered in the UMA vote as needs to be voted with evidence at time of proposal.
2024-12-13 09:40:39
One big yes holder switching sides and buying no, selling yes
2024-12-17 11:47:02
Haha please propose again yes, go on.
2024-12-18 18:33:41
Military Offensive and the IDF girl same height as the Syrian kids smiling in the camera :).
2024-12-18 22:39:27
One person pushing the yes price wow, there were 3 before oh wait where are they, ah they panic sold all. So wait and see for that to happen again.
2024-12-18 22:43:48
Now let's wait till the new top holder crumbles, thee dump will push the No price to 80, and then the yea pump starts again.
2024-12-19 08:05:46
Yes holders thinking clarification will be just that it should resolve to yes. Title invasion, rules military offensive on the ground - yea holders posting pictures where IDF soldier smiles with Syrian kids in the camera. Much military offensive...oo
2024-12-19 09:12:46
As if poly and Uma let themselves pressure now in force yes resolution while no credible media has reported an invasion. Would nullify the entire purpose of a decentralized decision. Yes holders claiming it is rigged until they try to rig it themselves.
2024-12-19 09:15:24
Nothing on a military offensive or invasion if DMZ. It is a good exit price for yes now, enjoy or cry later
2024-12-19 16:18:19
If poly will really add a clarification that will result in immediate yes, themselves and SquirtleXIII should be checked for insider trading.
2024-12-21 12:18:33
No holders scared one yes holder who market sold 25k. Some lucky ones scooped that, must be nice. Only chance to scare one more.
2024-12-21 12:39:08
Well you had your chance to sell and make a few K, by scaring some - gggg
2024-12-21 15:48:17
Now I can happily quote myself from the Syria market before there additional context was added. If yes holders win in the Syria market it is good to know they will soon lose the money back to others elsewhere:). That was quick:D
2024-12-22 20:19:06
No holders you did map his Twitter posts in the past of sailor tracker to the buys next day, oh you didn't : [link removed]
2024-12-27 20:31:07
In dubio pro reo - the market does not have the volume that someone would be on purpose holding evidence back, accumulating shares at cheap prices and then drop it. Nothing new, hence needs to go to No
2024-12-29 11:46:19
No blaim, same as yesterday. Ambiguous statement don't count.
2024-12-29 12:18:14
Implying is not explicit and no blaim what the intention of the market is
2024-12-29 12:20:14
Novus got to excited at 88ct and switched sides buying the market empty, before a clarification it is like Syria 40/60 max
2024-12-30 10:27:48
Ukraine shot down 20 drones and killed 6 invaders tonight, so much ceasefire oo
2024-12-30 10:48:53
Well Ukraine Now telling the shot 20 drones and killed 6 Russians last night, much ceasefire lmao
2024-12-30 13:03:57
Tell me yes holders how are you so damn fast, someone got an X API and sees the post earlier?
2024-12-30 13:04:57
Yes here, but what info consumes the bot
2025-01-01 20:42:49
You don't have to sell - once the bet ends you can redeem the full amount or zero.
2025-01-02 12:02:23
Unintentional blew up himself oo
2025-01-07 10:26:55
https://x.com/ValerioCNN/status/1876573573428793639?t=jw3OOVPTkb9Sk3fOBLXkOg&s=19
2025-01-07 12:25:30
To restate rules are based on New York time, which is Saturday morning Korea time, so 10am Saturday 11th Korea time. So some additional hours people might miss.
2025-01-07 14:06:20
What do you mean? Read the rules - if he gets arrested Saturday morning Korea time it still counts.
2025-01-08 09:09:27
By the rules a ban must come into effect - if a ban is uphold by this Friday but in the end does not come into effect, the brt resolves to no. Not sure why regs push the price so high now.
2025-01-08 11:02:04
Additional an acquisition is on option, besides free speech main reason I see the supreme Court to uphold the ban would be to force tiktok to sell. But there are multiple options this can go to no.
2025-01-08 11:02:34
[link removed]
2025-01-08 20:39:22
Which is fine for that bet to resolve to No. Price will bump of them uphold but goes to 0 once no ban comes into effect
2025-01-10 17:43:04
Must have gone into effect - let's see.
2025-01-10 21:16:00
Q4 earnings announcement on 4 February 2025. Subtracting 15 days from 4 February 2025 gives us a likely start of the blackout period of 22 January 2025.
2025-01-13 12:50:23
It must be banned for download - not a scenario that is very likely but still possible, supreme Court does not delay but Trump promises not to pursue companies that still support it, hence no ban came to effect. Ideally the ban still is postponed as it just makes no sense to restart a day when Trump is inaugurated.
2025-01-13 12:50:39
If they don't ban the download
2025-01-20 22:30:47
Same, agree
2025-01-25 20:22:19
Point is Tax is an IRS topic you can't sign an EO. He could still do the same as for crypto to sign an EO to look into it for congress. With that he makes his voter happy but he just can't cancel taxes - only righting alpha as I am max invested on that market already.
2025-01-25 20:32:05
It's not about that, look at the crypto reserve market. An EO was signed but then the only content was to form a working group to look into it. I must admit he is smart in that regards kind of keeping his promises but not overstepping the law/ or at least his lawyers told him ;). You had inside knowledge in the tiktok market but don't overestimate yourself now ;) gl
2025-01-25 21:05:01
GG yes holders Trump not being stupid, can't go around congress
2025-01-25 21:15:51
Told you, don't overestimate yourself. Only reason the price was so high for yes, you. No Tiktok alpha here sorry bro
2025-01-25 21:19:10
Dream on, daily decline with nothing happening
2025-01-25 21:34:57
You understand that Trump can't sign a bill into law what the rules require, right? It needs to pass Congress
2025-01-25 21:37:44
Nopey he can sign an executive order but that can't bypass Congress and can't sign anything into law. I am ok to sell at 90 and invest elsewhere, don't want to hold onto it for 100 days
2025-01-25 21:54:55
Was that your strategy Ron? Accumulate some shares cheap, push the price once and propose yes when nothing changed, in the hopes it does not get disputed? Pretty scammy
2025-01-25 22:36:59
Ron, Lol then not propose the 100 day JFK file market but propose this one. Really scammy to pull that shit.
2025-01-26 16:10:26
+1, it's pretty clear, price just spiked because of Ron, don't cry if you get burned following him. Look at activity history he derisked 24k shares yes
2025-01-26 16:11:50
Plus additionally in the plan within 15 days many things can happen and the plan changes to not declassify. Hence not declassified yet
2025-01-26 18:35:21
Columbia is not Mexiko, DJTs postnon Truthsocial does not change the brt here.
2025-01-26 19:46:06
Click on the link of that statement - it's a daily Mail article which as well states that Trump ordered a declassification, referencing the EO which gives 15 days.
2025-01-26 19:47:19
With your logic US would have already a Bitcoin reserve because trump signed as well an EO to look into it.
2025-01-26 19:56:00
Read the Executive Order, there is specifically a paragraph that is called declassification: it states to work on the plan Trump gave 15 days.
2025-01-29 12:34:09
Would recommend for yes holders to check, first tariffs imposed by Trump in his first legislation, only 25% on steel. Never general, now there is even United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in place which makes it much harder. So general tariffs of 25% what the market requires sub 1%
2025-01-29 12:35:09
Posting alpha, as could use half the funds here in other markets.
2025-01-30 21:37:30
Lol what are you talking about. Looking to dump your shares on others. It needs to be signed and general tariff. Trump now only talks about potential 25% tariffs on oil
2025-02-03 16:04:02
If he signs an EO to pause the tariffs for one month the original EO and 25% are still in place, hence No. Only if he signs an EO canceling/removing the tariffs this will go Yes. Br aware of pump and dumps when the EO is signed
2025-02-12 18:09:42
+1 to mr.ozi, once again a case of Ron trying to be a lawyer and finding loop holes in the rules to overturn a market
2025-02-12 18:28:38
The last part of the rules provide a good reference what counts:
2025-02-12 18:28:43
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if those sanctions do not come into effect until after this market's resolution date (e.g. https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions).
2025-02-12 20:02:43
It is a cyber security executive order which is not specifically a sanction against Russia. Now that internet company is Russia based but the action is not against Russia but that company.
2025-02-12 20:04:38
So if the US sanctions Edward Snowden noe, who has a Russian citizenship. Do we need to talk as well about USA sanction Russia. Or if US pardons Snowden then maybe the pardons Russia 🤔...
2025-02-14 10:58:10
well well well : [link removed]
2025-02-14 16:24:13
Well thanks for the clarification but that could have come earlier, not when UMA voted more and more yes and sold 2/3 of the position to derisk
2025-02-22 22:16:34
You are still here, make yourself free from ye :D
2025-02-22 23:19:48
Same
2025-03-04 18:27:15
Agree, but in case it comes to a dispute would expect UMA to vote what the market was about or poly clarifies. But still has dispute potential.
2025-03-13 20:59:51
Can you put it up again Erasmus bought most of it, I was too slow
2025-03-13 21:03:26
Well someone is being quiet now, you did not expect the wall being bought so fast or what?
2025-03-18 18:28:59
Mimimi I am sure Trump will have another call in a few weeks, gl yes gang
2025-03-19 08:52:34
And Kiew attacked by drones during the night, there won't be an official agreement.
2025-03-19 16:06:57
And whoops denizz out after the so good phone call. Don't you think Trump would have called out any progress immediately instead of referring to notes id there were any oo
2025-03-19 16:58:50
Rubio's statement anyone won't count to yes without Zelensky confirmation
2025-03-19 17:34:31
"Could be" is not an announcement.
2025-03-19 17:57:05
This will decay over next days enjoy the continuous decline each day Yes holders.
2025-03-19 18:21:27
What did yes holders expect that Zelensky publicly rejects the idea of a ceasefire oo
2025-03-19 18:42:20
Please do, I am happy to take the free 250
2025-03-21 14:38:25
Schizo denizz in this market, yes no then yes again. When nothing changed - in principle all are interested in it same as in a general ceasefire and yet there is none. Only hope for yes holders is Monday meeting goof luck
2025-03-21 14:48:29
Doesn't exist look at selenskys post on x, in principle agrees to the concept. Same as mineral deal, concept of a deal is there just no deal
2025-03-22 23:07:04
Desperate proposal and people riding the pump and dump enjoy the cheap NOs
2025-03-25 10:18:14
Real big scam (1) top yes holder only submits yes during Saturday evening when poly employees are off to avoid issue ING a clarification (2) poly issues clarification that it is too early and no deal has been announced, people buy more No (3) UMA is clearly not following the news or the price just believed some articles that were posted prior to the Zelensky Trump meeting in the oval office which clearly shows no deal to announce. If top yes holder did not de-risk would have thought he bribed remaining UMA token holders to vote and reveal yes. Had trust in most Uma votes so far- gone..
2025-03-31 17:19:44
What are you hoping for in the next few weeks to happen? Genuinely interested - if you think it happens yet, propose "yes" it will be disputed and goes to UMA if voted yes, fine you win if voted "too early" the reserve needs yet to be created
2025-04-01 16:57:41
Will take time: [link removed]
2025-04-04 19:58:43
Does he sign today on the golf course or during the candle light dinner? No holders? Will be the same as government shutdown, he will sign but too late : https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/
2025-04-05 06:18:04
Months... [link removed]
2025-04-06 12:54:41
Sometimes he posts at 9am CET. If not goes to 10
2025-04-12 17:30:33
GG : [link removed]
2025-04-17 08:11:15
Nothing, low liquidity
2025-04-17 12:12:34
Easter Monday, not am official holiday on SEC website but quite likely they just announce on Tuesday. Enjoy the price drop now
2025-04-17 12:32:23
Happens in the 20th of January which is a public holiday to be fair and they just announced Tuesday. So a bit higher likelihood to announce Monday as no official holiday but still several business and companies are off. Fair odds max 50-60 yes imo
2025-04-17 14:03:13
Did you check the SEC filing dates in the past no you didn't. Its Monday, sailor only announces after the filing documents have been uploaded. But yes can still happen as no official public Holiday but yes holders just buying based on London insider is the clueless part.
2025-04-19 14:47:17
GG [link removed]
2025-04-25 20:07:15
gg
2025-05-03 08:24:56
It is cristal clear, but if you want to waste another 750 dollar and lock the money for 3 days, fine
2025-05-04 09:15:05
Not good for Parolin: [link removed]
2025-06-20 08:32:09
Don't trust the No tards, you have Joe on your side!
2025-06-25 18:23:45
Yes pumpers chicken out and selling, one more pump?
2025-06-25 22:04:47
Can read an entire article or only the headline, even they call it: donning a black jacket, trousers and shirt
2025-06-28 11:13:03
Love how yes betters bet on a 20% market to 5x their money, but then complain that it was guaranteed and all is rigged... If it would be guaranteed you would by for 99.9 max
2025-07-04 20:18:40
Insects need to eat, nomnom
2025-07-07 13:44:54
Yes holders, the casino tells you that the 0 does not work on the roulette table you play on. Yes holders, well I don't care, all in on yes. Another number hits, yes holders: Scam scam scam
2025-07-07 15:38:22
Now let's wait until k4lshiii will dump all the yes share after name change and marketing effect 0. Why waste 100k, gg
2025-07-07 16:13:20
Hearts
2025-08-24 13:08:14
Common sense is a No, how would you ever otherwise intercept a missile with warheads. In case of a No proposal should be disputed and probably ask poly for a clarification.
2025-08-24 13:08:49
Common sense not always applies so yes still got a chance ofc
2025-08-26 13:34:51
Inception; maybe the hacked X account made this post ;)
2025-08-30 17:00:08
Thing is when just 100-200k are missing in the end it is more profitable for yes holders to just donate the missing amounts themselves instead of losing this bet.
2025-09-07 19:22:24
@poly, it is ok to clarify to yes, but please be consistent and let people know in advance a clarification will be issues like for other markets
2025-09-13 18:48:05
And selling 10k shares in the pump, well played still
2025-09-20 15:27:38
Chinese media mentiones as well the Monday announcement, so let's see if it counts, but we can definitely expect some volatility on Monday, enjoy No holders:
2025-09-20 15:30:41
[link removed].tw/news/484475?
2025-11-19 21:17:27
Truth social post about signing hitting in 2h45min
2025-12-20 21:39:22
Denial is strong again
2025-12-25 20:20:13
So who is gonna waste 750 on a dispute just to see that even tomorrow the song will be #1?
2025-12-27 17:29:47
You guys are fun, I sold my 6k yes shares from rewards farming at a loss but true it's not over until it's over
2025-12-27 17:41:44
Alt account to pump, I guess
2025-12-29 16:51:25
+1, still a good bond
2026-01-03 10:09:46
Scammers trying to flip a market, let's see if any news outlet reports US has invaded Venezuela
2026-01-03 14:46:46
Yes holders never understood this bet in the first place
2026-01-03 20:35:55
So the mission is called: "snatch-and-extract" and that was completed, which other missions are yes holders wating for the "invade and conquer" - gl with that
2026-01-09 20:51:16
stupid press to ask about ice in an oil related meeting come on^^
2026-01-10 13:19:35
scam below - poly please find a way to strucutrally block this!
2026-01-10 14:25:32
Scam belo, poly please take action. Block all external links.
2026-01-11 11:33:37
scam below
2026-01-11 11:41:17
scam below
2026-01-11 12:20:27
scam below
2026-01-11 13:40:55
Scam below
2026-01-12 08:59:48
As the stock market opens and the sky is clear we patiently wait for US strike. Sweet decay - see you next Friday.
2026-01-12 21:51:20
Tariff instead of strike, rational Trump it is for now.
2026-01-13 20:49:06
love it!
2026-01-13 22:00:56
lovely keep us entertained the next days regardless where this is going :)
2026-01-19 22:19:59
can we have a 10k market yes buy again please, he will announce tomorrow for sure
2026-01-22 08:57:44
Give the man his minerals and bigger base and happy he is. Still cudos to him, set the Anker high in your ask and everyone will be happy with the outcome.
2026-01-23 22:21:42
Retaliation against Abu Dhabi, lets go!
2026-01-26 10:06:06
scam below
2026-01-26 10:11:32
scam below
2026-02-01 16:38:01
Bearish: [link removed]
2026-02-01 16:38:45
Bearish?: [link removed]
2026-02-06 20:00:38
Some sense and/or liquidity coming back to this market
2026-02-07 20:53:03
it is getting interesting now, will it end in a fight of funds on the 17ths for an hour, dont think so.
2026-02-08 12:46:03
Scam below
2026-02-08 13:32:01
Scam below
2026-02-09 22:35:47
you forgot that the Venus is not aligned with Mars, that means no attack until March
2026-02-10 14:16:18
Strike: [link removed]
2026-02-13 16:19:41
Show me the poor lonely guy who updates the website now on valentine days. Would only be a poly insider ;)
2026-02-14 23:56:33
I was bored and Ai coded a forecasting model, lets see how close it gets: 99634817
2026-02-20 23:15:40
Just watching this from the sideline, but have my Judy No orders up, hope the ruggers fill some. Gn8
2026-02-21 12:03:26
Scam below 👇
2026-02-22 19:48:27
Back to where you belong, intelligence does not count, thank you for your liquidity ( I hope this does not age badly ;) )
2026-03-03 15:18:45
Can we get 3 dead bouncing cats?
2026-03-03 17:06:25
Actually I was surprised how good it fits that market honestly quite fair to everyone.
2026-03-05 19:37:34
This bet was always about them not completely closing it no matter what happens they need china, and will let these ships pass.
2026-03-05 19:42:18
No, it's just understanding history and geopolitics, it still might go yes if US brings B52s and bombs entire Iran and nothing moves
2026-03-05 19:48:48
Curseaaaaaaaa back to 0 when?
2026-03-05 20:18:26
Exactly, thought more people know and it would be priced in and bought to early. But people just buy on headlines
2026-03-05 20:31:23
And once ships turn AIS on again, the signal tracking will show a straight line and it counts as passed as it should. So yes better hoping turning the signal off won't count, will be wrong
2026-03-26 23:15:36
scam below
2026-03-27 09:47:19
scam below
2026-03-27 13:48:42
stop the scam below!
2026-03-28 23:37:34
Not tonight [link removed]
2026-03-29 20:09:07
too late to sell, mass hysteria over, hope for another pump
2026-03-30 12:05:22
Scam below 👇
2026-03-30 12:06:13
Scam below 👇
2026-03-30 13:14:10
Scam below 👇
2026-03-30 15:03:17
Scam below 👇
2026-03-31 13:43:06
I got enough shares so : The “different court” point doesn’t really work. Judge Childs being a Superior Court judge does not mean the related criminal misdemeanor case had to be in Superior Court — Georgia State Courts also handle misdemeanors. What’s verified is: Georgia warrant (25-W-1912) → Florida fugitive arrest on that Georgia matter → Cobb State Court case 25-M-1289 → guilty plea on Oct. 23, 2025 to criminal harassing-communications charges. So the strongest reading is that it’s the same Georgia judge-email matter, not some unrelated case in another court. The only caveat is that the public State Court docket page doesn’t print the child's name for protection etc, so once yes will be proposed that's the only angle No has. Good luck 🤞
2026-03-31 14:36:47
The Florida inmate page does not prove there’s some separate judge case still pending. It only shows he was picked up in Florida as a fugitive, while Armstrong himself said the arrest warrants were because of emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs. What we can actually verify is that the Georgia case 25-M-1289 later closed with guilty pleas on Oct. 23, 2025 for criminal harassing communications. So the simple chain is: emails to Childs → arrest warrant → Florida pickup on that warrant → Georgia guilty plea
2026-03-31 14:39:15
Show if there is a pending case, there is none as there was guilty plea. Case closed, we can't keep markets open indefinitely in case there might be another case , especially if there was already a guilty plea. Well we will see in UMA later it seems
2026-03-31 16:42:53
He confirmed himself that the warrants and the arrest in Florida are linked to this harresment.
2026-03-31 16:42:53
He confirmed himself that the warrants and the arrest in Florida are linked to this harresment.
2026-03-31 16:43:40
He confirmed himself that the arrest and warrant was linked to the harassment if the child, hence the plea was as well : This comes after Armstrong was arrested in Volusia County, Florida, in March on a fugitive warrant for allegedly sending threatening emails to a judge. Armstrong had referenced the warrant days earlier on X.
2026-03-31 16:45:01
[link removed]
2026-03-31 16:45:31
The public docket for 25-M-1289 does not name Judge Childs, that part is true. But that still does not prove it was a separate unrelated case. In Georgia, State Court can handle misdemeanors even if the person involved is a Superior Court judge, so “different court” is not enough. What is verified is: Armstrong said the arrest warrants were because of emails to Judge Childs, later reporting said the Florida fugitive case stemmed from those emails, and the verified Georgia case 25-M-1289 later ended with guilty pleas to harassing communications. So the public evidence still points to the same overall Childs-email matter unless someone can show an official separate case file that says otherwise
2026-03-31 16:45:40
Busy now, see you in UMA later
2026-04-01 20:56:19
we gonna wind down the war in 2 to 3 weeks, ah sorry in 6 7 weeks oo?
2026-04-17 14:06:39
All our yes nuclear expert having moved near weapons grade uranium in 24hours per uber express. Good luck
2026-04-28 20:59:42
to correct you my dear, sold closer to FV at a win - but at least you got Hormuz right, that one was good
2026-05-08 12:25:00
You know what UAP mean?
2026-06-03 21:43:10
that could have been your exit liquidity yes holders - there is always one more idiot until there isnt any one left
2026-06-12 20:03:16
gg - 2T was kinda interesting at the end
2026-06-15 13:50:49
Yes but he said we signed not the US signed. That's a credible source both signed.
2026-06-15 17:35:37
Not yet at least, but I am afraid Israel might issue a statement that they honor the agreement but remain the right to defend itself. If they honor the agreement that angle could be used.
2026-06-16 20:56:42
It's clearly an edge case, might pass UMA, but poly might clarify against if proposed, US clearly does not agree to it if there is a further condition to it. Does not meet the first sentence of the rule. But agree its in there with a condition., so I see the yes angle. Lets see - vibes and intention of the markets are No, rules are ambigous.
2026-06-18 20:16:39
Fair value of yes was 70 to 80, then it dropped to 50 for a few hours, now its more like 80-90. Good luck!
2026-08-06 07:48:15
He will be out today - or not.
2026-08-06 08:00:00
you are kinda fun, you deserve this win - gl!
2026-08-07 20:22:49
We will see multiple times a flip flop of hike vs no change until september, will be fun.