Account Information
Name:
paddaa
Pseudonym:
Fearful-Congress
Created:
2025-07-06 21:16:13
Last Activity:
8 hours ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@Impij25
profile-image-3154451-d1120fcc-6e76-4148-b6a3-3622eebeee2e.jpeg
Total Profit
$259,317
Blockchain trace (6)
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71 seed paddaa |
recipient, seed, sender, user | Polygon | USDC, USDC.e | — | 20 |
| 0x733b41f5d8554510fb26fd70c0de6a5be8f84fa1 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | — | 8 |
| 0xa06cc36138845e5f3bd04d5db3856883286fa6c1 | sender, user | Polygon | USDC | — | 6 |
| 0x25c2060bd54b2ea14b1a1968dbe71a4f886a3ece | recipient | Polygon | USDC | — | 4 |
| 0x8a260a64aed4da81bcb72cbb14698af64ae449e9 impi-230 |
sender, user | Polygon | USDC.e | — | 1 |
| 0xf733e7e3605c99cbe13826ade2d94064ea34163f | recipient | Polygon | USDC | — | 1 |
Stats
Portfolio value
$144,775.90
Markets traded
1,442
Trades
1,367
Largest win
$20,898.03
Profile views
15,286
Join date
2025-07-06 21:16:13
All-time rank
833
All-time PnL
$259,316.67
All-time volume
$14,340,199.79
All-time profit
$222,484.14
Lifetime volume
$13,286,269.87
PnL series latest
$222,565.28
PnL series start
$219,233.44
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$9,214.17
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 166028.131834 | $20,898.03 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 38835.367108 | $15,555.48 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 120115.245003 | $12,547.32 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | No | 37353.729462 | $-13,510.82 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 24163.388948 | $-8,207.75 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 29577.100493 | $-7,880.82 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 22208.5739 | $0.75 | $0.86 | $19,088.27 | $2,497.13 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 19857.9986 | $0.82 | $0.90 | $17,772.91 | $1,486.15 |
| Miguel DĂaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 15979.8899 | $0.69 | $0.83 | $13,343.21 | $2,321.24 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 12439.2932 | $0.60 | $0.86 | $10,759.99 | $3,281.39 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 10321.8852 | $0.84 | $0.92 | $9,444.52 | $822.81 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 166028.131834 | $20,898.03 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 38835.367108 | $15,555.48 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 120115.245003 | $12,547.32 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 126076.892765 | $11,695.60 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 48150.547541 | $11,479.88 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.33 | 1493.364704 | $500.00 |
| 8 hours ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.2877 | $0.29 | |||
| 8 hours ago | TAKER_REBATE | $0.00 | 4.3421 | $4.34 | |||
| 8 hours ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 41.8011 | $41.80 | |||
| 10 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | $0.81 | 1380.37 | $1,118.10 |
Recent trades (1367)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 hours ago | BUY | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.33 | 1493.364704 |
| 10 hours ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | $0.81 | 1380.37 |
| 10 hours ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | $0.81 | 52.631577 |
| 10 hours ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | $0.81 | 400 |
| 10 hours ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | $0.81 | 1366.99 |
Comments
2025-07-15 16:19:07
Yes seems unlikely, the sanctions bill is being delayed won’t be voted on before august.
2025-07-15 17:02:58
I was once with you yes holders but trump is a disappointment as usual. Read: [link removed]
2025-07-16 22:17:47
Justpunched with 2 million profit is a yes holder!!!
2025-07-17 01:19:28
source?
2025-07-17 01:32:32
Thank you brother
2025-07-17 06:48:36
[link removed]
2025-07-17 06:49:28
Hamas approves of Israel’s withdrawal plan, Qatar and Egypt are putting major pressure on them to get a deal
2025-07-17 14:50:25
The moment the withdrawal lines are sorted a ceasefire will be announced there is major pressure on both parties to get a ceasefire in effect. Israel has also shown flexibility regarding the withdrawal lines so far
2025-07-17 14:53:27
The moment the withdrawal lines are sorted a ceasefire will be announced there is major pressure on both parties to get a ceasefire in effect. Israel has also shown flexibility regarding the withdrawal lines so far
2025-07-17 14:54:53
Talks might be delayed for another week or so rhat a deal is announced closer to the knessets august recess, allowing Netanyahu time to heal his coalition without the pressure of a vote or no confidence
2025-07-17 15:06:56
They literally can’t even dissolve the Knesset they tried to too recently, they’ll have to wait a few months at minimum
2025-07-18 03:50:40
[link removed]
2025-07-18 03:51:44
Egypt, Qatar and the US are all putting major pressure on both parties to get a deal
2025-07-18 03:53:14
Trying to save your money cause I can’t buy any more cheap yes shares due to student loan payments
2025-07-18 03:54:32
Im paying off my PHD in Middle East Ceasefire-Negotiation Study’a
2025-07-18 04:50:33
Buy no then
2025-07-18 05:17:59
The mediators are “bullish” on a deal, which means they think the likelihood is 60+, and they know better than us
2025-07-18 06:26:24
Qatar has massive leverage over Hamas and the US has massive leverage over Israel. Trump got Netanyahu’s court date delayed with a tweet!!
2025-07-18 06:39:41
I know right
2025-07-18 06:40:03
Just google it bro
2025-07-18 06:44:16
[link removed]
2025-07-18 06:50:39
Trump’s Intervention and Political Pressure A significant factor in the delays has been unprecedented intervention from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for Netanyahu’s trial to be canceled entirely. Trump described the proceedings as a “witch hunt” and declared that “Bibi Netanyahu’s trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY, or a Pardon given to a Great Hero”. Trump’s statements have created additional political pressure, with some Israeli officials suggesting this intervention is “part of a larger move that is meant to bring an end to the war in Gaza, the release of all the hostages, an end to Netanyahu’s trial, and a serious regional move”. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee even attended Netanyahu’s trial session on July 16, stating that Trump’s position on the trial was “personal for him
2025-07-18 06:51:18
Trump has leverage over Netanyahu through his ability to intervene in his legal issues:
2025-07-18 16:03:59
Just in: Hamas says; When the silent crescent turns red and shadows gather at midday, the minarets will whisper secrets only the forgotten can hear. From the dust of Yajuj and Majuj shall rise a voice not born of man, heralding the night that knows no dawn
2025-07-18 16:12:08
If anything this proves that they are committed to getting a deal out of those latest negotiations: “ Hamas’ armed wing spokesperson said on Friday the group would not agree to an interim truce in the future if a ceasefire agreement was not reached during ongoing negotiations and accused Israel of intransigence.”
2025-07-18 16:13:00
I feel like yes should be going up?
2025-07-18 16:21:51
If either party caves to pressure they could declare a ceasefire and then work out the hostage and aid details from there, this is what happened in January
2025-07-18 16:30:29
THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR NO HOLDERS: CAIRO, July 18 (Reuters) - Hamas' armed wing spokesperson said on Friday that while the group favours reaching an interim truce in the Gaza war, if such an agreement is not reached in current negotiations it could revert to insisting on a full package deal to end the conflict”
2025-07-18 16:31:09
Hamas is ok with a temporary ceasefire as long as it comes during these negotiations!!!!
2025-07-18 16:34:46
I got on this site like a week ago, I love you im trying to save your money. Read the fine print!!!!
2025-07-19 00:49:50
[link removed]
2025-07-19 01:14:10
Trump just met with the Qatar PM and now he’s back to declaring a ceasefire is coming very soon. He is a bullshiter but that’s not nothing
2025-07-19 06:11:18
Israel agreed to give up on the morag corridor, Netanyahu willing to make “major concessions.” And Hamas is willing to offer a temporary truce during these negotiations. There could be a deal before the 22 honestly
2025-07-19 15:55:27
No holders are totally misinterpreting Hamas’ statements yesterday. They were posturing while actually agreeing to a short term 60 day truce.
2025-07-19 18:16:01
Just because the negotiations have been slow so far, doesn’t mean they’ll continue lagging
2025-07-19 18:16:31
Everybody wants a deal and the outlines of one are clear it’s just a matter of time
2025-07-19 20:33:41
50k protest outside US embassy right now, and Hamas expected to react positively to Israel’s new withdrawal plan…
2025-07-20 00:01:58
From Israeli officials involved with the negotiations: [link removed]
2025-07-20 02:32:14
What incentive do Israeli negotiators have in saying there is an “80%” chance of a deal within two weeks if they didnt believe it. If anything it hurts their position and prevents them from getting more concessions from Hamas.
2025-07-20 03:05:42
Yes I think thats very likely
2025-07-20 15:37:13
The Chief of Staff in the Gaza Strip: "The achievements on the ground advance the defeat of Hamas and create the potential for a hostage deal" | @inon_yttach
2025-07-20 15:45:01
Why
2025-07-20 15:55:31
I don’t think Hamas can really be fully defeated, without massive civilian losses, more than anything we’ve seen so far and Israel knows this. Hamas knows how to survive and hide behind civilians
2025-07-20 21:17:45
It’s a different deal, Israel is withdrawing from areas they previously wanted to remain in, [link removed]
2025-07-21 16:15:09
A deal is likely coming, Hamas has had incentive to delay to maximize the diplomatic pressure ion Israel and Netanyahu has delayed to push the announcement closer to the august Knesset recess date. [link removed]
2025-07-22 19:59:21
Before august 15 seems very likely considering how long the negotiations have gone on, but before august I doubt: The gaps in the negotiations regarding the perimeter issue: Israel demands at least 1,200 meters in the depth of the perimeter, while Hamas demands 800 meters - and no more. It seems to be a resolvable dispute. The Israeli proposal for the number of terrorists to be released: 125 lifers and over 1,100 detainees imprisoned after October 7. @yaronavraham
2025-07-23 15:19:55
Hamas is responding today, Qatar is putting a lot of pressure on them to agree
2025-07-23 17:10:47
hamas' response was just recieved they want minor adjustments to the withdrawal borders and more Palestinian prisoners for each hostage, nothing dealbreaking.
2025-07-23 17:11:29
[link removed]
2025-07-23 17:48:29
so many parties are pushing for a ceasefire and everyone wants it, its just a matter of time: [link removed]
2025-07-24 01:46:16
Before august 15 seems very likely but idk about before august at this point.
2025-08-12 17:14:54
Israel is considering sending a delegation to Doha, makes sense cause the new offensive seems dumb and isn’t supported by the head of the idf
2025-08-12 17:30:31
This is big
2025-08-12 17:30:56
Still not likely before the 31st i guess but def undervalued
2025-08-12 19:54:04
The new proposal by Qatar is still for a 60 day ceasefire, its quite possible that could come in august, with the complete surrender deal being worked out during that pause
2025-08-14 18:36:26
Egypt is working to formulate a comprehensive ceasefire deal in Gaza, planned to be implemented at the end of August
2025-08-14 18:37:58
The new offensive is just a negotiation tactic, Israel knows by know that Hamas can’t be wiped out without sacrificing the hostages aswell
2025-08-15 17:04:28
This meeting has too many parties involved, too much hype generated, too historic for nothing to come out of it
2025-08-15 17:05:05
Would be a mistake for Putin not to give trump sowmthing to work with when it comes to a road to peace
2025-08-18 15:34:47
We know from last months that internal sources say a lot of optimistic things… but then negotiations move slowly
2025-08-18 22:19:25
Trump hopes to do the Putin-Zelensky meeting by the end of August. Source: Axios
2025-08-18 22:22:09
I could see a short term ceasefire before October as a gift to trump to avoid pressure. The USA has so much leverage over both parties if only the dumb*** would use it.
2025-08-19 05:48:18
Zelenskyy agreed to give up some land
2025-08-19 22:35:46
"Israel is expected to respond to Hamas' ceasefire proposal on Friday," a proposal that 98% matches the Whitkoff agreement that Israel previously agreed to - Ynet News
2025-08-19 22:36:37
Doesn't mean that there will be a ceasefire on Friday, but they'll start working out the details then
2025-08-22 15:15:21
So undervalued, there’s been 8 prisoner exchanges in the last 11 weeks! Look at the base rates!
2025-08-22 15:16:20
There’s also been about a week since the last one which matches the usual intervals between deals historically, and now trump is saying a deal is coming, which doesn’t mean much but isn’t nothing.
2025-08-22 15:44:42
Ukraine has historically refused exchanges of hundreds of POW’s only to accept an exchange deal days later.
2025-08-22 15:45:26
Google it, since the instanbul framework for exchanges agreed to in June 2025 theyre has been 8 exchanges
2025-08-22 16:27:04
Ignoring all other factors, just based on the math from historical precedent, the price should be around 65%, decreasing by 5% each day
2025-08-22 17:32:01
I havent been able to identify any current factors that push the price down from its historical average. Also the period since june 2025 is the most relevant because thats when ukraine and russia agreed to a new framework for prisoner exchanges
2025-08-22 18:17:21
Your math is wrong, ask CHAT GPT
2025-08-22 19:59:32
Ghislaine Maxwell just testified that she doesn't think he killed himself
2025-08-23 17:03:23
Can someone find out if kong is an insider
2025-08-24 07:09:57
Report in the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The Egyptian army has strengthened its presence on the eastern border with Gaza, out of fear of humanitarian and military repercussions, in the shadow of the IDF's intention to conquer areas not under its control in the city of Gaza
2025-08-24 18:17:23
It's not even confirmed when the warships are going to get to the Venezuelan coast. An Al Jazeera article from a few days ago said "Officials estimate the ships could arrive in Venezuela as early as Sunday august 24"
2025-08-24 18:18:39
There's also lots of historical precedent for anti-narcotics operations but a military engagement like the criteria lays out has only happened once in US history with Noriega.
2025-08-25 14:48:44
Attack plans “ready by mid September” doesn’t mean an attack will occur before the 30th
2025-08-25 14:49:46
In the last 40 years of American history this has never happened. No direct confrontation between US troops and cartels, only intelligence sharing and assistance to foreign troops
2025-08-25 16:56:13
So true dude, you should ask them to make a market on that, like “will trump raping kids evidence come out before 2030.” Bet big on it
2025-08-26 00:03:12
Might not even have counted towards this resolution depending on how strict they are with applying the “cartel” label
2025-08-26 00:04:05
The last time anything remotely like this happened was in 1989, so even with trumps aggressive stance the probability of this happening within 1 month is like 5%
2025-08-26 01:39:01
It doesn’t have to get through congress or take effect he just has to sign an executive order and he signs like 1 a day on average
2025-08-26 05:23:18
All he has to do is sign a piece of paper for the market to resolve to yes
2025-08-26 14:12:30
Are you trying to sound like a dumbass so that people sell you cheaper yes shares
2025-08-26 16:06:54
Israel wants a full deal, all hostages returned. Hamas disarming is a prerequisite demand. Hamas is obviously going to demand guarantees from America that Israel doesn’t violate the ceasefire and obliterate Hamas once all the hostages are out. If Israel insists Hamas members are exiled from Gaza before a ceasefire, then a new governing authority will have to be established and vetted. So basically even if Israel sends negotiators today, the process will take more than a month. Last month when both sides were aiming for a partial deal, the negotiations went on for about a month before collapsing.
2025-08-26 20:32:16
It doesn't even need to actually happen he just needs to officially announce it
2025-08-26 20:33:40
He's also actually sent the troops twice in the last 3 months. "Yes" should be at least 20%, probably closer to 30%
2025-08-27 19:06:55
Here's a link to the court documents showing that they legally changed their name in 2020: [link removed].[link removed]
2025-08-27 19:07:27
Search "robin westman"
2025-08-27 19:07:35
youll get this article: Case Title: "In the Matter of the Application of Mary Westman for a Change of Name"
2025-08-27 19:09:08
Search "Robin" in the first name box and "Westman" in the last name box and you'll get this file: Case Number: 19WS-CV-19-13061 9 W S dash C V dash 1 9 dash 1 3 0 6 Case Title:In the Matter of the Application of Mary Westman for a Change of Name
2025-08-27 19:26:24
[link removed]
2025-08-27 19:54:16
Yeah there's a chance the police refuse to confirm that their transgender, it's happened before. The mom could also say that their son was transgender but no longer is or something. The criteria is pretty vague.
2025-08-27 19:59:45
that resolution criteria better not screw us over
2025-08-27 20:24:25
The petition for the name change, filed by Robin’s mother Mary Westman, explicitly states that the minor “identifies as a female and wants her name to reflect that identification”[citation:browse_public_web]. This statement appears in the application as the formal justification for the request, consistent with typical wording used in Minnesota name change petitions involving gender identity
2025-08-27 20:25:38
it says in the court docs that they identify as female, this will resolve to yes
2025-08-27 20:39:52
[link removed]
2025-08-27 20:40:18
ABC news: "Suspect in deadly Minneapolis shooting wrote manifesto, identified as trans"
2025-08-27 20:43:25
[link removed]
2025-08-27 20:54:18
Trump is also gonna say the person is transgender but it doesnt matter, the police havent
2025-08-27 20:54:38
needs to be a concensus of CREDIBLE reporting
2025-08-27 21:05:49
it seems like they were trans but are no longer, and the media is gonna make sure to hammer that home. Glad i sold my yes shares early
2025-08-27 21:18:35
This is gonna tear UMA apart
2025-08-27 21:21:59
There's nothing in their recent manifesto or their youtube about being trans, police chief said they're 'non binary." They dont really look like theyre trying to present as female, they identiifed as "robert" again recently. It seems like they were idenitifying as trans years ago, but no longer. So far only right wing publications are saying theyre trans anyway, there no "credible concensus."
2025-08-27 21:46:20
In more recent court files they identify as cisgender taking the name “Robert”: Case Number: 70-VB-21-12570 7 0 dash V B dash 2 1 dash 1 2 5 7 0 Date Filed: 09/27/2021 September 27 2021”
2025-08-27 22:28:22
Its not getting reported as transgender and it seems certain at this point that they dont identify as transgender and havent for about 4 years now
2025-08-27 22:41:34
This will resolve to no. Most publications are not reporting that the shooter is trans. The latest court documents show that they identify with their given name "Robert":
2025-08-27 22:41:41
Case Number: 70-VB-21-125707 0 dash V B dash 2 1 dash 1 2 5 7 0 Case Title:State of Minnesota vs Robert Paul WestmanState of Minnesota versus Robert Paul Westman Case Type: Crim/Traf Non-MandCriminal Traffic Non-Mandatory Date Filed: 09/27/2021September 27, 2021 Case Location:Scott County Case Status:Closed Citation Number: 70012021000999
2025-08-27 22:48:59
These cases are handled very sensitively, the police and the media are not going to come out and say conclusively that the suspect is CURRENTLY transgender just because they were 5 years ago.
2025-08-27 22:51:48
The police have made their statement [link removed] and "this market will resolve based on what law enforcement believe was most likely (e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No")."
2025-08-28 00:18:36
There just isnt any solid evidence that they are trans and the police are not going to confirm anything
2025-08-28 00:34:37
Lots of mental illness and incoherent beliefs and identity's but no evidence that they are actually transgender, and despite the speculation the police chief did not say anything about them being transgender
2025-08-28 04:51:51
Hes not trans anymore trans is a specific thing
2025-08-28 04:52:10
This will just be a big UMA dispute i thibk
2025-08-28 06:36:23
“ This market will resolve once there have been statements from relevant law enforcement confirming whether the shooter was transgender. If no definitive statement has been made by September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what law enforcement believe was most likely (e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No").”
2025-08-28 15:26:28
Trans is a specific thing, they might be non binary but they do not identify as trans or as a women. And anyway the police are not going to say that they are trans which is a prerequisite for a “yes” resolution
2025-08-28 15:40:36
[link removed]
2025-08-28 15:53:34
Dont buy too much cause it’s gonna come down to UMA jn the end
2025-08-28 18:52:50
No new significant info is gonna come out about this persons gender identity and the police haven’t given any confirmation that they are transgender and appear to not want to discuss that element at all. I don’t think this market will resolve to yes.
2025-08-28 19:30:54
Heres the police chief talking about the investigation: [link removed] They havent said anything about the suspect being transgender yet so why would they decide to all of a sudden, now new info is gonna come out., everyones already made up their minds.
2025-08-28 21:19:19
Even if the government deny’s it all of the files that might be released soon will contain things that probably lead to an agreement or “consensus of credible reporting” that there was foul play.
2025-08-28 22:56:59
I don’t think the police will call them trans, the mayor is big pro-trans and has said she doesn’t want anyone demonizing the trans.
2025-08-28 23:06:58
Gonef has like 85% of the yes shares this market is super inefficient
2025-08-28 23:24:28
Non binary is not the same non binary means you idenitfy with either kid both or neither gender, not that you have switched your gender
2025-08-28 23:25:32
They were transgender five years ago maybe but I was a communist five years ago doesn’t mean I still am
2025-08-29 00:42:48
People are saying the suspect was hired by Blackrock, doesn’t mean that if the police dont deny that then they are implying it’s true. The people making the affirmative claim that the suspect is trans need police confirmation not the people saying they aren’t trans.
2025-08-29 15:29:53
They are not trans anymore and it’s been days now without the police indicating otherwise
2025-08-29 17:35:13
For liquidity I already realized profits
2025-08-29 20:57:46
The police haven’t confirmed that they are trans and the consensus in the media is that they are either non binary or de-trans. Right wing media is labeling them as trans but that does not qualify for a “consensus of credible reporting”
2025-08-29 20:58:09
This market will resolve once there have been statements from relevant law enforcement confirming whether the shooter was transgender. If no definitive statement has been made by September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what law enforcement believe was most likely (e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No").
2025-08-30 02:34:46
[link removed]
2025-08-30 02:35:09
U.S. Official Says Deployment Of Warships Off The Coast Of Venezuela Is Mostly Saber Rattling: 'Behind The Scenes It's Business As Usual' Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said earlier this month that the Trump administration was "very much against regime change in terms of the U.S. basically being the driver"
2025-08-30 03:59:13
The saber rattling quote is recent, and the other quote is from a couple months ago
2025-08-30 04:45:33
The writer of the article specified the transgender part, not the police they have not made any statement on that, and the suspect has said they are no longer transgender
2025-08-30 04:46:03
Suspect is no longer trans they say
2025-08-30 04:49:47
Media reports don’t count, of course some people are gonna say they’re trans, the market only resolves if there is a clear confirmation by police
2025-08-30 05:08:16
So far there is reporting but nothing widely agreed upon, “
2025-08-30 05:08:23
“ This market will resolve once there have been statements from relevant law enforcement confirming whether the shooter was transgender.”
2025-08-30 07:15:36
If you look into it enough it’s clear that they thought they were transgender at one point but no longer do, and the cops have been referring to them as “he”
2025-08-30 16:37:48
The Minneapolis transvestigation unit
2025-08-30 18:17:15
Adm. Daryl Caudle, the new chief of naval operations, told reporters that U.S. ships are heading into waters off South America to support "Venezuelan operations and missions" that involve drug cartels.” [link removed]
2025-08-30 18:18:22
“ Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at the Chatham House in London, said the deployment, the Tren de Aragua's designation and the recent doubling of a bounty for Maduro are parts of the White House's strategy of making "as much noise as possible" to satisfy Venezuela's opposition, many of whom are Trump supporters, and to "scare maneuver" high-level government officials into defecting. But, he added, "there's no realism here in terms of the likelihood of an actual invasion."
2025-08-30 18:36:57
We have their manifesto and their YouTube account, so far it seems like they are a case of de-trans, and I don’t see any other evidence coming out.
2025-08-31 02:37:08
Trumps dead pack it up guys
2025-08-31 03:24:15
From their YouTube shortly before the shooting: “ “I only keep [the long hair] because it is pretty much my last shred of being trans. I am tired of being trans, I wish I never brain-washed myself,” he wrote, according to a translation by The Post.”
2025-08-31 03:24:48
The market should resolve to no because at the time of the shooting and for years before it they did not identify as transgender
2025-08-31 14:08:58
Whether you are transgender is entirely up to how you identify. Nobody is innately transgender, if you don’t identify as transgender then your not, regardless of how you may have felt in the past or whether you got a name change etc… Not only did they explicitly express that they were no longer trans, in the many videos and writings they released recently where they talk about their deepest darkest feelings, they don’t mention anything about being a women or being trans. Unless the police announce something before September 7th this market should resolve to “no” by default.
2025-08-31 14:25:01
These are very clearly not the statements of someone who is trans, non-binary maybe, or just a young person unsure about their identity: “I know I am not a woman but I definitely don’t feel like a man”
2025-09-01 16:33:56
So far the police have been calling referring to them as “he.” Based on the rules I can’t imagine anything other than a “no” resolution unless they change their tune for some reason: This market will resolve once there have been statements from relevant law enforcement confirming whether the shooter was transgender. If no definitive statement has been made by September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what law enforcement believe was most likely (e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No").”
2025-09-02 16:30:49
This should resolve to no, people place bets and put their money on the line based on the rules and the rules are clear that a police statement is required. If the rules were just sowmthing like “is the suspect trans? Resolution will be based on consensus of credible reporting.” I would have bought yes or at least hedged.
2025-09-02 21:31:41
Yes in 2019 they changed their name and identified as trans, but recent journal entries and YouTube videos show that they no longer identify as trans and have not for some time, this is probably the reason why the police have been referring to them as “he.” Unless this Minneapolis police change their tune and start saying that the suspect is still trans, this will resolve to “no” per the rules.
2025-09-02 23:17:46
Even if it was 100% clear that the shooter was still trans at the time of shooting, the Minneapolis police clearly don't want to politicize the situation or give any ammo to the right, just look at the statements from the mayor. They are very unlikely to confirm that the suspect is trans within 7 days
2025-09-03 17:30:51
The rules have not changed since the market started it would be crazy if the resolution reflected anything other than the rules, which clearly state that “police confirmation” is the deciding factor.
2025-09-03 21:33:50
Even if the interpretation of the rules end up favouring "yes" holders, i still dont think we can say there is a concensus of credible reporting that the suspect was trans at the time of the shooting. Many reliable outlets have reported on them de-transitioning and no longer identifying as trans.
2025-09-03 21:34:13
i think it could still resolve to no based on the media reporting
2025-09-04 05:41:28
The fact that it hasn’t resolved to “yes” yet, despite the fact that all the yes whales thibk that a “consensus of credible reporting” has already been reached, tells me that it will probably resolve to no once September 7th passes with no confirmation from the police.
2025-09-04 14:08:30
Gonef has like all the yes shares, not much needs to happen for the price to collapse, it makes no sense for the market to not be resolved yet but the yes price to still be so high
2025-09-04 14:55:17
If the rules are in our favour and it just comes down to winning the UMA dispute then anything less than 10c is a steal i think.
2025-09-04 17:47:05
another press conference and still no endorsement, he knowns that leftism is not the future of the party, and he doesnt want to upset the black caucus who are explicitly anti-mamdani.
2025-09-04 20:28:49
Maybe if no holders just represent our side strongly with UMA then the truth will prevail. I imagine Polymarket will pay close attention to this market and try to come to a fair conclusion because a market on the gender identity of a attention seeking mass shooter already might seem odious, wouldn’t want to add an unfair resolution process on top of that.
2025-09-05 03:36:08
Not actually renaming the department yet. From CNN: " WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump will sign an executive order Friday adding "Department of War" as the secondary title of the Defense Department, two White House officials told NBC News. The order, which Trump is expected to sign in the Oval Office, won't rename the Defense Department, but it will authorize Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to use secondary titles like “secretary of war” and “Department of War” in official correspondence and public communications and during formal ceremonies, according to a White House preview of the order."
2025-09-05 07:17:06
It’s not “was the suspect transgender at any point” it’s “is the suspect trans” and he clearly no longer is. If someone thinks they’re bisexual in grade school and then change their mind then they are no longer bisexual same logic applies here, you don’t carry the label forever because you identified with it at one point.
2025-09-05 17:24:07
It would be unfair for this to resolve to yes after clarification. Anyone who bets in a disclipined and thoughtfull manner took note that the rules mention twice in two separate paragraphs that “law enforcement confirmation” is the deciding factor, which sets this market apart from most where a “consensus of credible reporting” is the primary resolution source. People dont put thousands of dollars their money on the line based on a title alone without considering the rules, and if this resolves to yes tommorow then Polymarket is setting a precedent thay the market criteria and rules dont matter which I think would be very harmful to the site.
2025-09-05 18:09:32
Domer please can you please contribute to a relief fund for No bros when we lose all of our money
2025-09-05 18:33:42
im an impoverished bulgarian call center worker
2025-09-05 19:02:16
no
2025-09-05 19:02:31
im a 20 year old upper middle class parents in canada
2025-09-05 23:35:34
More maduro planes????!
2025-09-06 00:40:49
You know what NO will definitely win because Domer is on our side and Polymarket values him for all the liquidity he provides, if it weren't for him many smaller markets would be barely functional.
2025-09-06 17:26:57
Yes should have proposed like 3 days ago, if their interpretation of the rules is correct then a yes resolution should have been reached a while ago. I don’t see how we will get to September 7th and then have anything other than a no resolution.
2025-09-06 19:08:43
"(e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No")."
2025-09-06 21:19:47
this is so dumb nothing new is happening
2025-09-06 22:27:18
i bought september at 11c because it was undervalued. Were are likely at peak hostilities right now so i think if it does happen it will likely happen in September. Its a hedge.
2025-09-06 22:49:26
i still think its not going to happen at all, but by buying september i can cheaply lower the downside if my no positions go to zero.
2025-09-07 02:05:04
not much stopping trump from air striking some random cartel hideout in the Venezuela jungle, he could do it and declare victory and throw himself a parade, they are deploying F-35's off the coast of Puerto Rico now.
2025-09-07 04:04:44
Didn't the president say he wouldn’t take military force off the table for taking Greenland, he says a lot of things.
2025-09-07 16:18:17
Domer please dispute for the good of the website, I’ve listened to all your interviews do it for me I can’t dispute im a poor Romanian boy
2025-09-07 17:06:02
Oh shit
2025-09-07 17:06:28
Ohhhh
2025-09-07 17:56:02
I'm genuinely confused, can a polymarket veteran explain to me why the price of NO is tanking when this market is going to come down to a dispute over the rules, shouldn't the price be closer to 50 50, do people really think they can predict how the UMA process is going to go?
2025-09-07 18:09:12
Why are you confident that UMA will rule in yes favour, what kind of precedent are you basing that on im genuinely curious
2025-09-07 23:56:30
Who’s gonna dispute the yes proposal?
2025-09-08 04:26:54
Simone should propose no i dont have the money, just treat it as a 750 bet where any shares you buy now can go up 50x basically. The truth is on our side!
2025-09-08 05:04:53
Im so proud of my NO babies I love you all
2025-09-08 05:51:58
This is David and Goliath this is my legacy this decides the fate of this website, this is about integrity vs greed.
2025-09-08 15:41:41
Kristi Noem is not a reliable source, the rules specific relevant law enforcement which is obviously the local police doing the actual investigation.
2025-09-08 16:50:46
So dumb, if the suspects voice cracked Kristi Noem wpuld say hes transgender, it’s a political thing, she has no connection to the investigation and no credibility.
2025-09-08 22:55:28
add new orleans i think
2025-09-08 23:10:14
[link removed]
2025-09-09 18:31:31
"President Trump is expected to decide to whether or not send the National Guard to Chicago sometime today." [link removed]
2025-09-11 19:14:44
i think trump is over it
2025-09-11 23:15:02
no
2025-09-14 00:17:46
He's living with someone who is either a male or a male transition to female, both would meet the market criteria based on the "additional context." Multiple FBI sources have indicated to Axios and Fox News that Tyler had a romantic relationship with his roommate, no family members or sources have denied that as of yet.
2025-09-14 05:00:00
No holders their neighbour said he saw them hold hands and kiss. A family member also confirmed that they were in a romantic relationship.
2025-09-14 08:41:15
He was dating his roommate, many sources confirm, their neighbour, family members and the fbi. The roommate was either transition to female from male or was just male, either way Tyler is not straight.
2025-09-14 16:26:08
Axios is a left leaning source, they reported that six law enforcement officials told them that Tyler was in a romantic relationship with his roommate, there are pictures of his roommate, whatever they identify as, they still look male.
2025-09-14 16:44:50
Should certainly resolve to yes, the rules say that “tariffs against entities for continuing trade with Russia” qualifies and this new designation is basically that. The rules dont just include tarrifs, these trade restrictions should qualify, Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.”
2025-09-14 17:21:41
I have changed my side, the main thing is the sanctions are not new, also you have to squint to make them meet the criteria, and markets seem to resolve more based on vibes when there are big disputes.
2025-09-14 18:22:02
Sanctions against Russian citizens or entities which do not directly target the Russian state or members of the Russian government will not qualify" not the state
2025-09-14 18:24:20
these are expanded previous sanctions against private companies, the rules are long and detailed but nowhere is this kind of sanctions specifally mentioned as qualifying
2025-09-14 23:55:01
It’s just not clear from the rules that these measures would apply, and this happened two days ago, with little reporting on it and no movement in the price until now which i think is a testament to how little it meets the criteria.
2025-09-14 23:55:59
Also if this did meet the criteria then it should already have resolved to yes: The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.“
2025-09-15 17:14:04
The rules are just not clear, one paragraph implies these sanctions couldn’t qualify and then the next implies they could. The fact that the price is hovering around 50c is testament to the fact that this should not qualify for a yes resolution. The criteria overtly includes many different kinds of sanctions but these don’t fit neatly.
2025-09-15 19:16:07
Does this even count as an act?
2025-09-15 20:04:26
Shittt
2025-09-15 20:15:48
I like how he stressed in the tweet “INTERNATIONAl WATERS”
2025-09-15 20:17:25
Hmmm it a being called a “sanction” by every publication
2025-09-15 20:17:43
Still like 50/50 which way it resolves honestly
2025-09-15 20:45:27
These are by definition secondary sanctions, if secondary tarrifs count why wouldn’t trade restrictions aiming to weaken Russias military count?
2025-09-15 20:53:15
[link removed]
2025-09-15 21:28:05
damnn free money
2025-09-15 21:30:16
i give it 10 mins before yes is at 100
2025-09-15 21:34:07
venezuela waters
2025-09-15 21:56:39
damn yes holders go so lucky
2025-09-15 22:01:56
shieeeeettt
2025-09-15 22:10:38
these trade restriction expansions happen all the time, prob happened during last market and no one even realized
2025-09-15 22:17:13
im so screwed i just read the memorandum
2025-09-15 22:17:23
he snuck it in there
2025-09-15 22:43:37
damn this happened prob like 5 times last month and no one realized lol
2025-09-15 23:55:50
They sanctioned them last time they messed with bolsonaro
2025-09-16 00:54:22
Robb Memphis doesn’t count, this is the issue: Qualifying cities include any U.S. city with a population 300,000 based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau which is in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2025 presidential election (Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories are not states and do not qualify).”
2025-09-16 00:57:43
[link removed]
2025-09-16 01:04:30
A sly devil wrote these rules
2025-09-16 01:12:33
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, his unspecified allies on the court and his immediate family members will face visa revocations, according to Rubio, who criticized what he called a "political witch hunt" against the former president.
2025-09-16 01:15:50
Regarding the September decision against Bolsonaro: Christopher Garman of Eurasia Group told the Associated Press that “the White House is likely to extend Magnitsky sanctions to the other justices who convicted Bolsonaro and possibly their families”.
2025-09-16 15:36:20
I don’t think this admin is very concerned about being friendly internationally
2025-09-16 15:42:24
[link removed]
2025-09-16 16:43:48
Read the article, the expected sanctions are against the judges
2025-09-16 16:57:28
It’s very likely they will impose more sanctions against the judges based on mangitinsky act, they did it last time, and this decisions against bolosonaro is much harsher than anything before
2025-09-16 17:07:49
Lula is pre-emotively responding to the incoming sanctions on NYT
2025-09-16 19:05:57
[link removed]
2025-09-16 19:06:09
not happening before september 30
2025-09-18 03:15:56
How is this at 15% and the Venezuela market is at 6%, if cartels are gonna be hit anywhere it'll be there (Any kinetic strike on venezuelan soil counts for a "yes" resolution in that market"). This should be about 9%.
2025-09-18 19:11:30
he Police stated: "Eilat Police forces were dispatched a short time ago following a report of an object falling in the city of Eilat, and are securing the impact site. "Police explosive disposal experts are working to determine whether the object was interceptor shrapnel or a fallen UAV."
2025-09-18 19:11:43
if it was intercepted first it doesnt meet the criteria
2025-09-18 19:13:00
"Skip advertisement The area was immediately cordoned off as bomb disposal experts began examining the debris to determine whether it was part of an interceptor or a downed drone"
2025-09-18 19:14:08
"Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage."
2025-09-18 19:15:38
[link removed]
2025-09-18 19:16:00
yeah, i give it 10% chance it was intercepted
2025-09-18 19:16:16
maybe 20%
2025-09-19 19:59:28
San Francisco is next, they want to show off all the homelessness so Newsom doesn’t threaten Vance’s presidential run.
2025-09-19 20:20:31
[link removed]
2025-09-19 20:24:50
[link removed]
2025-09-19 23:05:13
They just did a new kind of H1B visa which would qualify under the very broad resolution criteria: "Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
2025-09-19 23:21:54
Its dumb but this part of the criteria pretty much guarantees a "yes" resolution: "The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration"
2025-09-19 23:22:25
it will be challenged in courts but like with the crypto stuff and national guard they will do it anyway, or something like it
2025-09-20 00:07:54
Read the executive order, they are being tricky so that despite legal challenges they can still do it:[link removed]
2025-09-20 00:08:56
congress will have nothing to do with it, it wont be legal, but they are not going to go through all this trouble to end up not selling, or claiming to have sold, a single card
2025-09-20 00:09:20
"The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of Gold Card participants by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting."
2025-09-20 00:10:09
they just have to say they sold one and put it on a nice official looking website like the one that just came out for 0 sold to resolve to "no"
2025-09-20 00:21:31
If they are actually blocked legally from selling the gold cards in their current form, Trump will just make a new legal or private program/thing, call it a gold card, sell some to his buddies and then declare victory and throw a parade. And then this market will resolve. because: "The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration."
2025-09-20 00:33:13
it doesnt even have to be a gold card it could just be any new immigration program: "any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify."
2025-09-20 00:44:25
hey!
2025-09-20 00:44:56
im trying to help make the market more efficient, (my iq is well above 110)
2025-09-20 00:59:04
yes my pnl is -90 and yours is +30, your the king of the homeless shelter and im nothing
2025-09-20 01:24:40
pack it up guys i just put in an order for a gold card
2025-09-20 21:37:16
he really wants bagram
2025-09-20 21:37:19
DEPARTMENT OF WAR
2025-09-20 21:37:23
someone buy my shares
2025-09-20 21:45:01
israel is gonna help, and then they can go after iran from right next door
2025-09-20 21:45:15
someoine buy my shares
2025-09-22 16:42:31
They’ve never hit Moscow directly, their strikes have always been intercepted and it’s unlikely this time will be any different
2025-09-22 16:42:46
A yes resolution only comes if there is no interception
2025-09-22 16:45:01
This is the important part: For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.”
2025-09-22 16:47:31
They strike Moscow all the time but their drones have been intercepted every single time, never making direct contact
2025-09-22 16:52:13
[link removed]
2025-09-22 16:57:28
Read the tweet yes buyers i want to save your money I can’t buy any more no
2025-09-22 17:12:14
!!!!! [link removed]
2025-09-22 17:43:53
They’ll probably say that they have found that or are confident that Tylenol contributes/ is a cause of autism. This qualifies : If RFK Jr. identifies multiple causes, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
2025-09-22 20:12:21
no should be about 97%, ukraine has struck moscow many times over the last two years, but they have been intercepted before hitting anything every single time. Also this attack started a while ago and so far no reports of any damage caused
2025-09-22 20:16:10
even if something was hit, i think the kremlin would make sure no reporting on it comes out, they want to keep their aristocracy in Moscow feeling as comfortable as possible
2025-09-22 20:38:50
Kennedy likes to be definitive in his statements, he is a conspiracy theorist he doesn't hedge.
2025-09-22 20:49:46
not within the moscow municipality so doesnt count
2025-09-22 21:11:47
"executive action by the president" so this counts
2025-09-22 21:18:50
RFK even said there were studys indicating no relationship, which will be reviewed in the search for causes
2025-09-22 21:22:58
they have not found a cause thats 100% true, and they are talking about looking further...
2025-09-22 21:23:31
if they beleived Tylenol did cause autism i don think they would tell pregant women its ok to use it if the pain is bad enough...
2025-09-22 21:24:03
waiting for certain studys...
2025-09-22 21:31:03
if this doesnt resolve to no polymarket is not working as it should
2025-09-22 21:35:18
its induced by "SOMETHING" - Trump
2025-09-22 21:57:18
if they say or imply that anything "definitively" causes autism, then they will have to defend that statement, which they cant do
2025-09-22 22:13:44
an executive order is a formal designation, it might be challenged and might not stand but it is still the trump admin making a formal designation
2025-09-22 22:28:46
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), ((((((as well as executive action by the President)))))
2025-09-22 23:11:20
Im sorry yo Bart im trying to sell half of my no shares at 90c because I’m under diversified and my bankroll is small so I’m nervous
2025-09-22 23:11:49
I know it’s annoying but I’m just trying to get people to buy no, it is genuinely underpriced at less than 93%
2025-09-23 20:28:02
SCOOP: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Syrian President Al-Sharaa are expected to meet in Washington DC ahead of the UN General Assembly in September, a Syrian source close to President Al-Sharaa tells @i24NEWS_EN . The Syrian source stated that during the meeting, which will take place at the White House, Netanyahu and Al-Sharaa will sign a security agreement, under the patronage of U.S. President Trump.
2025-09-23 22:58:04
Dec 31 is basically mathematically guaranteed haha
2025-09-24 21:57:01
insiders
2025-09-25 17:12:11
[link removed]
2025-09-26 15:25:07
Trump got a deal!!!
2025-09-26 15:30:52
Whattt you don’t believe the president of the USA?!?
2025-09-26 22:31:23
It's gonna be a full peace deal next, no more short term ceasefires. It'll take more than a month to negotiate no-hamas governance and withdrawal and aid distribution etc... so by october 31 unlikely but by december 31 very possible in my opinion
2025-09-26 23:10:48
It’s not just gonna happen, a lot of negotiating needs to happen: [link removed]
2025-09-26 23:11:42
Month is not long enough the gaza city assault is ongoing, Israel wants Hamas to disarm, Hamas needs security assurances from America. Dec 31 is much more likely
2025-09-27 01:28:28
[link removed]
2025-09-28 18:58:29
insiders
2025-09-28 19:24:59
check x
2025-09-29 14:33:00
Secret service vehicle catches fire outside White House ahead of Netanyahu meeting
2025-09-29 16:34:18
Sep 30 is not the litter ticket but October 10 is on
2025-09-29 16:34:25
Lottery ticket *
2025-09-29 17:29:12
october 10 is the sweet spot
2025-09-29 17:43:08
they could announce a commitment to stop fighting by X date, and even if there is no immediate ceasefire or if it doesnt en up happening, as long as both agree to that announcment this market will resolve to "yes"
2025-09-29 17:47:09
should already be resolved to yes, there is a credible consensus that the houthis hit the ship, confirmation from the houthis themselves isnt neccesary
2025-09-29 18:07:55
hamas doesnt want to disarm, and Netanyahu doesnt want to make peace and hamas just stays in gaza witht their weapons, thats basically a defeat
2025-09-29 18:41:48
hamas is not signing this deal OMG
2025-09-29 19:06:09
i expect hamas' fullthroated rejection within hours
2025-09-29 19:21:29
hamas is not accepting this, its a full surrender deal, it even includes shrkinging gaza with a semi-permanent israeli controled buffer zone
2025-09-29 19:22:28
the people who blow themselves up in cafe's are not going accept a surrender deal, whether they are on their last legs or not
2025-09-29 19:28:03
enior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi after Trump unveiled his plan for Gaza: “Trump's plan has not reached us, nor has it reached any Palestinian party so far. We were not informed of Trump's plan before its announcement, and its terms are close to the Israeli vision.”
2025-09-29 19:30:02
[link removed]
2025-09-29 19:36:22
yup trump and tony blair are gonna take over governance of gaza peace is coming to the middle east
2025-09-29 19:37:41
[link removed]
2025-09-29 19:39:30
in the last attempt for a ceasefire hamas was only asked to realease half the hostages for a 60 day ceasefire, but negotiations went on for about a month before eventually being discontinued
2025-09-29 19:42:50
He reiterates Hamas’s stance that it refuses to disarm “Our position Hamas’s regarding this disarmament is clear armed resistance is the right of the Palestinian people as long as there is occupation. If the Palestinian people are liberated and the Palestinian state is established, then there will be no need for resistance and weapons, and this will be part of the Palestinian entity.”
2025-09-29 19:48:26
Car is buying cheap yes then selling them when everyone gets overhyped dont listen to them
2025-09-29 19:52:00
[link removed]
2025-09-29 19:55:46
BREAKING: Hamas agrees to ceasefire, TRUMP will take over as president of "PALESTINE"
2025-09-29 20:00:54
“Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty,” the proposal says. “Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.”
2025-09-29 20:05:21
explain why im mistinterpreting it
2025-09-29 20:08:10
by the end of the year sure i think so, but any earlier than that no way
2025-09-29 20:09:24
hes gonna sell his shares the moment the price goes up more than 3 points
2025-09-29 20:32:47
they're not agreeing to this, it'll take months to sort out the details and for israel to further pummle hamas into accepting a bad deal
2025-09-29 20:33:17
[link removed] "Trump administration releases the full 21-point Gaza plan which redraws the Strip and sidelines Palestinians. ➤ Gaza would shrink with a permanent Israeli “security buffer zone,” swallowing the Philadelphi corridor on the Egypt border. A new Board of Peace chaired by Trump himself with Tony Blair on it would run Gaza’s economy and governance until Palestinian Authority can take over. ➤ Hamas barred from any role: all tunnels, workshops, and weapons must be destroyed under foreign monitors, with fighters either disarmed or exiled."
2025-09-29 22:39:56
shit someone buy my no shares
2025-09-29 22:43:34
[link removed]
2025-09-30 15:58:31
Hamas won’t accept this deal. They want peace but it’ll take many weeks to negotiate a deal, and Israel will continue their offensive in the meantime to put more pressure on Hamas to agree to a surrender deal
2025-09-30 18:03:18
i read that the embassy was hit by debris, not directly targeted so shouldn't that not count for a "yes" resolution
2025-09-30 18:17:42
i feel like we cant be sure 100% that shrapnel from a russian shell would lead to a yes resolution, the criteria doesnt explicly say antything about shrapnel but i feel like the spirit of the bet would be direct targetting of polish property or soil, am i wrong???
2025-09-30 20:15:21
oh shit
2025-10-01 00:35:15
very possible considering the bagram situation and increase aggression DEPARTMENT OF WAR
2025-10-01 16:58:27
They’re done for a while
2025-10-02 19:17:58
There will be a deal before the end of the year but the current deal no chance, Hamas doesn’t want to disarm, Israel wants to keep applying pressure and don’t want to release 200 life sentence prisoners, nobody wants trump and tony blair governing gaza
2025-10-03 16:41:11
From before market started
2025-10-03 16:41:17
Shit lol
2025-10-03 19:57:32
this response is more conciliatory than i expected i think oct 31 is even possible
2025-10-03 20:05:11
hamas agrees to hand over control of the strip to an arab authority
2025-10-03 20:05:30
thats what trump has been negotiating with the arabs states in the background for a while now
2025-10-03 20:23:47
they just agreed to give up their weapons
2025-10-03 21:05:12
they just need to negotiate, hamas will leave, theyll give some aks to a arab authority thing, israel will have a little buffer zone, i think late october it will be finalized
2025-10-03 21:27:58
oct 10 never happening, hamas is demanding israeli withdrawal and security guarantees before they release hostages
2025-10-03 21:51:42
netanyahu doesnt want it
2025-10-03 22:06:51
there will be drawn out negotations, this is just confirmation of that [link removed]
2025-10-03 22:15:39
oct 10 will be 93 in a few hours. fs
2025-10-03 22:19:44
Satoshi is gonna buy 100 gorrilion shares in october 10 and im gonna have a heart attack
2025-10-03 22:44:11
WE HAVE PEACE
2025-10-03 22:55:02
if they bomb narcos in venezuela this will actually resolve to yes "Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution."
2025-10-03 22:55:26
also the current postion of the government is that the cartel of the suns is tied to the regime in venezuela
2025-10-04 01:08:35
wow didnt expect that
2025-10-04 01:15:29
the criteria on this site always tricky
2025-10-05 06:50:15
Trump is such a savvy guy he knows how to get this deal done
2025-10-05 15:47:27
Shut theres more
2025-10-05 16:22:57
Doesn’t look like it was fully intercepted…. Too bad for me this isn’t a liquid market
2025-10-05 16:48:52
I was on no side but Ive switched now because it seems like Hamas is just defeated… they’ve agreed to disarm, they’ve agreed to exile themselves and they have now stated that they are satisfied with America’s guarantees that Israel will not attack again. They’re giving up so much leverage before negotiations have even started.
2025-10-05 16:50:28
Ben Gvir has stated that he would only leave Netanyahus coalition if Hamas remained in gaza after the release of the hostages, but now Hamas has agreed to disarm and to exile themselves so it’s easy for the Israeli right to frame this as a surrender deal
2025-10-05 16:50:56
Someone tell me why im wrong and I’ll happily sell my shares
2025-10-05 17:01:16
Im not sure about oct 10, last time there were negotiations I saw constant reports on an imminent deal but then negotiation in Qatar between the mediators went on for like a month. Israel might try to ramp up military pressure during negoations to get a better deal aswell
2025-10-05 17:03:42
Yeah I think October 10 won’t hapoen but oct 31 will
2025-10-05 17:23:28
Trump is not a reliable source
2025-10-05 17:39:03
[link removed]
2025-10-05 22:07:07
this has never happened, at least not in the last 50 years of American history
2025-10-05 22:12:40
"Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution." Doesn't matter if its against cartels or not, still qualifies. And trump said today they are moving on to strikes against cartels on land....
2025-10-05 23:02:31
For some reason the price of this market is not matching this Venezuela one as it should: https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-october-31?tid=1759705291571
2025-10-06 19:09:22
[link removed] They did a strike 3 days ago and Hegseth declared " These strikes will continue until the attacks on the American people are over!!!!"
2025-10-06 19:13:38
then trump announced yesterday october 5 that they hit another on oct 4
2025-10-06 20:05:19
Nah it’s not gonna resolve based on the oct 5 one, im just showing it to show that the rate that they have doing these strikes has remained high very recently, it’s likely they’ll do another within 10 days based on the rate over the past few weeks
2025-10-06 20:18:43
based on the daily rate of the last month, since the first strike on September 1, the likelihood of a strike occurring within the 10 days is around 70%
2025-10-06 22:20:16
[link removed]
2025-10-07 16:02:09
they struck one sep 16, sep 19, oct 3 and oct 5 so i think its quite likely we see another one within the next week and a bit
2025-10-07 22:24:45
It’s all or nothing, the price here should match the ceasefire by Oct 31 price pretty closely
2025-10-08 18:10:28
the last ceasefire negotations went just like this lol, constant reports of a deal tommorow, or in a few days, or any time now, and then negotiations just drag on and on. It makes me wonder if the reporting is not a concerted effort to influence the negotiations.
2025-10-08 18:19:42
[link removed]
2025-10-08 18:20:26
[link removed]
2025-10-08 18:21:01
israeli government is starting the process of drafting the proposal for a deal to be voted on
2025-10-08 19:07:30
[link removed]
2025-10-08 19:10:22
Report on Al-Arabiya: Israel has categorically rejected the names that Hamas requested to release, has requested some time to examine the possibility of handing over the bodies of Sinwar and his brother, and continues to impose a veto on the release of the prisoners that Hamas is demanding. Hamas has demanded guarantees that Israel will not rearrest prisoners whose release is scheduled According to the report, the mediators emphasized to Israel the difficulty of handing over all the bodies of the deceased at the designated time. The disputes regarding the prisoner lists are still ongoing. Israel insists on a veto over the release of the prisoners demanded by Hamas but Hamas opposes this right."
2025-10-08 19:11:15
"In Al-Khader, they report: Israel demanded an exact timetable for the handover of the hostages the deceased. Hamas wants a written agreement that will ensure that Israel does not return to fighting"
2025-10-08 21:43:20
trump truth social post doesnt count
2025-10-08 22:57:12
we know that a deal has been reached now
2025-10-08 22:57:27
netanyahu just confirmed
2025-10-08 23:33:17
trump netanyahu call coming now
2025-10-08 23:38:31
its over netanyahu said that israel just needs to "ratify" the agreement, so they have agreed in practice. doesnt matter when it starts
2025-10-08 23:43:26
netanyahu said he would approve the agreement, its simple
2025-10-08 23:44:39
netanyahu said hes going to approve the deal on thursday, so the government of israel has agreed, doesnt matter when they do the ceremony
2025-10-08 23:45:56
[link removed]
2025-10-08 23:46:08
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
2025-10-08 23:46:17
will suffice
2025-10-08 23:48:24
a concensus of credible reporting will suffice
2025-10-08 23:49:35
[link removed]
2025-10-10 02:59:18
I’m so confused, I asked ChatGPT and apparently only like 4 researchers plus the comitee know who will win, and they usually only decide a day or a few hours before the announcement. Can someone explain to me what could be happening here?
2025-10-12 16:19:01
This specific list is not coming out at all
2025-10-13 19:10:26
US companys have oil infrastructure in venezuela so i dont think theyll bomb the country. also trump is obsessed with oil prices
2025-10-13 19:48:09
theyre unlikely to use tomahawks by the end of the year and they have only ever potentially hit moscow municipality once in march when they hit the oil refinery and even then russian officidals denied any direct hit and claimed to have intercpeted all the drones.
2025-10-13 19:52:35
this has happened at most twice in the last 2 years, and each time russian officials claim interception and the media mostly echoes what they say so those instances might not even have counted depending on how strictly the criteria is applied
2025-10-13 20:06:52
free money very overvalued: https://polymarket.com/event/will-edmundo-gonzlez-return-to-venezuela-by-october-31
2025-10-13 20:11:55
i cant i must be diversified
2025-10-13 20:12:13
also its possible it happens, maybe like 25% by end of year
2025-10-14 16:41:19
Why the price going up?
2025-10-14 18:05:54
"in international waters." Trump stresses that in every tweet announcement of a strike
2025-10-14 18:18:50
ya but the last time the us did regime change in latin america through actual military strikes and invasion was in 1989 so it doesnt seem to happen that often.
2025-10-14 18:52:32
this has got to resolve now, the federal register has been updated and the Alaska mining road order was a executive action, not an exeuctive order
2025-10-14 18:52:59
it has been added here to the "presidential document" page: [link removed]
2025-10-14 21:15:27
i cant beleive i got shares at 90c on this
2025-10-16 01:00:46
why aint this resolved yet?
2025-10-16 05:57:37
This is the worst theory so far
2025-10-16 17:26:23
Al-Awda Hospital: 4 injured by Israeli drone fire east of Al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza Strip Nasser Medical Complex in the Gaza Strip reported on Thursday that two Palestinian martyrs were killed as a result of an Israeli missile attack targeting the town of Abasan al-Kabira, east of Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
2025-10-16 18:02:01
From Al-Jazeera one of the sources considered credible by the resolution criteria: A source in Gaza’s ambulance service tells our team that a person was killed by Israeli army fire in the eastern Bureij refugee camp, in the central Gaza Strip. This comes after sources at Nasser Hospital told us that two Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks, one in a drone attack today, and another from wounds sustained days ago at the hands of Israeli forces.” (This was posted 8 hours ago on their live updates page)
2025-10-16 18:02:46
“One in a drone attack today” -Al Jazeera 8 hours ago. Oct17 should resolve to yes
2025-10-16 18:03:48
Here is the link: [link removed]
2025-10-16 18:26:52
"Israeli forces conducted a drone attack on Thursday in the town of Bani Suhaila, east of Khan Younis in Gaza, critically wounding two Palestinians, Al Jazeera Arabic reported, quoting Nasser Medical Complex." Can someone resolve for "yes" this is as clear as it can get.
2025-10-16 20:34:21
dont propose yet im taking out another mortgage
2025-10-16 21:09:36
"Israeli forces conducted a drone attack on Thursday in the town of Bani Suhaila, east of Khan Younis in Gaza, critically wounding two Palestinians, Al Jazeera Arabic reported, quoting Nasser Medical Complex."
2025-10-16 21:16:05
[link removed]
2025-10-16 21:16:51
now multiple
2025-10-16 21:33:06
no one propose
2025-10-16 23:34:18
there was a strike today and yesterday, reported in Al Jazeera, strikes will likely be a near daily occurrence for a while.
2025-10-16 23:36:05
why is december 31 only 83, is there precedent for trump cancelling these kinds of meetings?
2025-10-16 23:47:17
also Times of Israel reported on it: [link removed]
2025-10-17 02:56:57
Al Jazeera is specifically mentioned as a credible source for a resolution?
2025-10-17 02:57:11
and Times of Israel reported on it
2025-10-17 03:13:53
No matter what does or doesn’t hapoen tommorow it should resolve to “yes” based on this reporting from Al Jazeera: [link removed]
2025-10-17 14:14:03
This is such BS both Reuters and Al Jazeera have reported on strikes. The reason that it’s not getting wide coverage is because it is going to be so commonplace going forward
2025-10-17 14:15:46
This has got to win on dispute, can any no holders actually tell me that Israel hasent struck gaza within the timeframe?
2025-10-17 14:19:29
[link removed]
2025-10-17 14:19:54
8 hours ago: Our team on the ground reports that the Israeli army is still shelling the eastern areas of northern Gaza’s Shujayea, despite the ceasefire. Yesterday, three Palestinians were killed by Israeli attacks, some of the nearly two dozen who have been killed since the ceasefire went into effect on October 10.
2025-10-17 14:20:40
Thats from Al Jazeera specifically mentioned in the criteria as a reliable source. Theres no way this isn’t resolving to yes on dispute this is one of like 5 reports of drone strikes or air strikes over the last 2 days
2025-10-17 14:35:27
Just look up “IDF drone” or “IDF strike” on X, alongside the Al Jazeera reporting, there are dozens of posts from local media about different drone strikes in gaza today and yesterday. Can any no holders honestly tell me that they believe not a single criteria-meeting strike has happened since the market opened?
2025-10-17 14:39:13
Yes drone strikes in gaza that kill a few people are not going to be reported on, after the last ceasefire and every one low level fighting continues for weeks
2025-10-17 14:39:51
[link removed]
2025-10-17 15:13:22
Al Jazeera has now reported on 3 different criteria-meeting strikes in the last 2 days. No other outlets have denied the reports and Al-Jazeera is specifically listed as a credible source in the criteria. That is why this should resolve to “yes.”
2025-10-17 15:16:11
Id say yes has a 70% chance of winning on dispute, UMA tends to not be pedantic about the specifics of the criteria.
2025-10-17 15:20:11
The criteria just says the source will be “reporting from…list of sources… and Al Jazeera” it doesn’t even say that widespread reporting is required.
2025-10-17 15:43:46
No holders are hurting my feelings
2025-10-17 16:04:49
it should resolve to “yes” based on this reporting from Al Jazeera: [link removed]
2025-10-17 16:05:09
This link alone meets the criteria:
2025-10-17 16:07:06
Can a no holder tell me why this reporting shouldnt meet the criteria: [link removed]
2025-10-17 16:19:37
Thats just not true
2025-10-17 16:28:25
This is what I was linking to form Al Jazeera: "Israeli forces conducted a drone attack on Thursday in the town of Bani Suhaila, east of Khan Younis in Gaza, critically wounding two Palestinians, Al Jazeera Arabic reported, quoting Nasser Medical Complex."
2025-10-17 16:28:40
Thats from yesterday and was reported on Al Jazeera live page
2025-10-17 16:45:08
Its a drone strike, and its reporting from a listed source (Al Jazeera), it happened yesterday and the market opened day before yesterday, in no way does this not qualify: This is what I was linking to form Al Jazeera: "Israeli forces conducted a drone attack on Thursday in the town of Bani Suhaila, east of Khan Younis in Gaza, critically wounding two Palestinians, Al Jazeera Arabic reported, quoting Nasser Medical Complex."
2025-10-17 18:05:16
theres no way this doesnt win on dispute
2025-10-17 18:14:53
the truth prevails
2025-10-17 18:15:37
coco lets run away together
2025-10-17 19:37:16
this should be much lower than these "will Putin and Trump meet **anywhere" markets considering there is a very real risk that the meeting takes place outside of hungary considering the legal challenges, and eu airspace etc...: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-meet-with-putin-again-by
2025-10-17 19:38:01
hungary is an issue, might have to be elswhere
2025-10-20 00:37:38
everyones too lazy to resolve
2025-10-20 00:37:47
and i dont have any token
2025-10-20 01:27:23
can somebody propose this, its stuck nobody has token to resolve, also its free money look it up on this website: "Uk Sanctions on russia by october 31"
2025-10-20 01:28:46
for some reason people are selling at 97
2025-10-20 01:29:47
can somebody propose this, its stuck nobody has token to resolve, also its free money look it up on this website: "Uk Sanctions on russia by october 31"
2025-10-20 01:33:25
can somebody propose this, its stuck nobody has token to resolve, also its free money look it up on this website: "Uk Sanctions on russia by october 31"
2025-10-20 19:47:04
Here it is 2 hours ago there was a drone strike: [link removed]
2025-10-20 19:47:23
October 20 is yes
2025-10-20 19:50:11
Idf confirmed a drone strike occurred afternoon of October 20 it’s over
2025-10-20 19:59:31
Times of Israel link i provided below
2025-10-20 20:10:20
Article released two hours ago saying “idf confirms drone strike this afternoon October 20”
2025-10-20 20:33:30
Idf confirmed a drone strike today to Times of Israel. There has likely been dozens of strikes today, and multiple ones reported on. This is dumb
2025-10-20 20:41:50
Several Palestinian terror operatives who crossed the Yellow Line to which the military withdrew under the terms of the current ceasefire in Gaza City, and opened fire on troops, were killed in a drone strike, the military says. The incident took place this afternoon in Gaza City’s eastern Shejaiya neighborhood. According to the IDF, the operatives had been identified crossing the Yellow Line “in a way that posed an imminent threat” to troops. The gunmen then opened fire on the troops, without causing injuries, the army says.
2025-10-20 20:42:00
killed in a drone strike, the military says. The incident took place this afternoon in Gaza City’s eastern Shejaiya neighborhood. According to the IDF, the operatives had been identified crossing the Yellow Line “in a way that posed an imminent threat” to troops. The gunmen then opened fire on the troops, without causing injuries, the army says.
2025-10-21 15:25:55
Coco are there any reports
2025-10-21 16:39:39
There have been multiple strikes every day for the last week, low level sporadic conflict is going to be the norm going forward. Each strike isn’t likely to get much media attention unless more than like 5 people are killed
2025-10-21 17:33:48
there are so many reports of strikes today october 21, i think someone just needs to find one solid clear article and spam it here for yes to prevail
2025-10-21 19:07:21
this market should be much lower https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584?tid=1761073602280
2025-10-21 19:41:28
Two reports here from israeli national news sources citing military officials reporting air strikes and drone strikes in the morning and early day of October 21:[link removed] [link removed].il/breaking-news/article-1243528
2025-10-21 19:51:06
heres another one posted during the day of october 21 in israel, [link removed]
2025-10-21 19:51:19
this will go yes on dispute at the least
2025-10-21 19:53:55
heres another: [link removed].il/israelnow/article/19071694
2025-10-21 19:54:53
all articles very clearly state "tuesday" and are released well into october 21 in Eastern Time importantly
2025-10-21 19:55:47
anyone can go translate the artciles yourself the strikes occured on Tuesday they are not reffering to old strikes
2025-10-21 19:56:34
if it goes to dispute these will be presented: :[link removed] [link removed].il/breaking-news/article-1243528, [link removed].il/israelnow/article/19071694
2025-10-21 19:57:48
the tweet from the military correspondant for Times of Israel litterally says, "The incident took place at 12:30 p.m., during efforts by the forces to clear the area where they are stationed of potential threats."
2025-10-21 19:59:52
Maariv: "This morning (Tuesday), the Air Force attacked, using a remotely piloted aircraft, a terrorist cell that crossed the Yellow Line in the Khan Yunis area and approached IDF forces. IDF fighters identified the cell and aimed an air force aircraft at it, which hit the cell. Today, the IDF intends to complete the deployment of the yellow concrete blocks that are supposed to mark the yellow line for the Gazan population. The decision to mark it was made by Defense Minister Yisrael Katz at the end of the week. In recent days, the IDF has begun marking the yellow line to prevent civilians from crossing the line by mistake"
2025-10-21 20:03:43
from arab sources aswell: "Palestinian Information Center A young Palestinian man was killed on Tuesday by Israeli drone fire in the town of Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, as part of a series of ongoing violations by the occupation army since the announcement of the cessation of hostilities."[link removed]
2025-10-21 20:05:27
"Earlier today, at approximately 12:30 p.m., during an IDF operation to clear and secure the area south of Khan Younis beyond the yellow line but under Israeli control an IDF tank struck an explosive device. According to the IDF, no Palestinian terrorists were identified in the area at the time of the explosion. Intelligence assessments are underway to determine when the device was planted. Two soldiers sustained light injuries and were evacuated to hospital care. In response, the IDF carried out strikes against several terror targets posing a threat to forces operating in the area."
2025-10-21 22:32:43
it seems possible to me that the Tuesday drone strike happened before 8 am israel time which would be late late night october 20 ET, so really dont know with this one?
2025-10-21 22:36:50
there def was a strike on tuesday i just dont know about the timing, but if theres good evidence that the any of the strikes happened after 8 am israel time ill buy yes
2025-10-21 22:45:52
yeah so 7 am i guess
2025-10-21 22:48:23
they will be melted down
2025-10-21 22:54:16
ukraine will keep drone strikeing russia but moscow municipality air defense has only been bypassed once in the two years of war so far, so its unlikely it will happen again within the next two months
2025-10-21 23:34:51
if someone promises to propose ill buy all the yes shares for 99c and everyone can sell me yes for 99.99 i promise
2025-10-21 23:51:48
whats 100% true is that there was a strike in the morning of october 21 israel time. its reported by israeli military correspondants, and palestinian sources all detailed the same specific event of a drone strike injuring someone in the town of Bnei Suhaila. The idf has not denied the reports.
2025-10-21 23:52:12
this should resolve to yes
2025-10-22 02:14:43
"U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count."
2025-10-22 02:14:55
the qualifying part, which is actualy boots on the ground has never happened
2025-10-22 02:48:28
on foreign soil, which has never happened in history, the boats are in international waters so doesnt count
2025-10-22 16:06:46
Is this just people following insiders?
2025-10-22 16:15:34
Pacific side of South America would be south-western hemisphere haha
2025-10-22 16:16:03
Market says has to be North western hemisphere for some reason
2025-10-22 16:20:56
Look at a map, it could be south western
2025-10-22 16:21:59
We are probably not gonna find out if it’s north western or south western but this will resolve to yes i think, wpuld be dumb for it to not resolve jsut because we don’t know if the strike was a bit to the north of South America or a bit to the south
2025-10-22 16:24:38
Why is the North western part in the resolution criteria anyway? Who cares which hemisphere it’s in? Sometimes they add details to the criteria just to complicate things i feel
2025-10-22 16:25:33
Link?
2025-10-22 21:34:20
i found a breitbart article about mexican authorities capuring some drug lord with us intel, i think maybe that caused it
2025-10-22 21:56:30
ukraine has been using storm shadow missiles for about a year now, they have not succesfully hit moscow yet
2025-10-22 22:26:20
He just said the same thing he tweet a few days ago. Aid could be cut without any executive anything
2025-10-22 22:35:39
[link removed]
2025-10-22 22:38:00
read the article to save your money, also he announced this in a tweet a couple days ago with no executive action following it, this is something that can be enacted at the department level without any exucitve action
2025-10-22 22:44:20
On Sunday, October 19, 2025, President Trump announced on social media that the United States will enact tariffs on Colombia and suspend aid to the country due to its alleged failure to address its role in the illicit drug trade. The announcement comes amidst escalating tension between the United States and Colombia. In his post on Truth Social, President Trump called Colombia a “a drug manufacturing machine” and criticized Colombia’s President, Gustavo Petro, for doing “nothing to stop it.” Petro, meanwhile, had taken issue with U.S. military strikes on alleged cartel-operated vessels in the Caribbean, and accused the United States of illegally murdering a fisherman. Although the President Trump stated that the tariffs would be announced on Monday, October 20, 2025, an administration official later indicated that “right now” there was no such announcement forthcoming.1
2025-10-22 22:44:34
[link removed]
2025-10-22 23:03:30
maybe yeah
2025-10-22 23:04:44
i feel like this means its unliekly: [link removed]
2025-10-22 23:07:53
no will go back to 82 cents soon
2025-10-23 00:33:23
last chance before price goes back to 80s people
2025-10-23 15:02:38
It’s November or never
2025-10-23 16:13:32
he could also bomb venezuelan military... wouldnt count as a cartel operation
2025-10-23 16:31:19
WOAH! [link removed]
2025-10-23 18:47:24
this is fake right?: [link removed]
2025-10-23 19:01:50
[link removed]
2025-10-23 19:36:29
no
2025-10-23 19:45:13
un cucked?
2025-10-23 19:45:30
a lot of people got cucked today
2025-10-23 19:49:30
stayed in international airspace...
2025-10-23 19:51:00
boats boats boats
2025-10-23 20:00:19
kash patel and trump do hangout
2025-10-23 20:00:32
see you in valhalla maduro
2025-10-23 20:06:03
it could still happen soon, it seems like at this point either they escalate to land strikes or the pressure campaign ends. Idk what else they could do to put on the pressure but a full land strike at this point, seems like the logical next step
2025-10-24 02:42:51
Wow it’s actually gonna happen
2025-10-24 04:23:43
wtf how does the article below me not qualify
2025-10-24 04:23:52
someone should dispute
2025-10-24 04:24:22
this is clear cut: [link removed]
2025-10-24 04:26:48
is there a way to see if someone is disputing? ill buy yes if someone disputews
2025-10-24 04:27:23
how is it wrong day? its posted on october 23?
2025-10-24 18:11:12
dont buy yes good people al jazeera english just reported: "Israeli forces kill two in shelling east of Deir el-Balah At least two people have been killed in Israeli shelling in an area east of Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, a source at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital told our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic. Moreover, our correspondent from Al Jazeera Arabic also reported that Israeli forces launched artillery shelling in the area." For some reason "shelling" of all kinds doesnt qualifty so this alone will not result in a YES resolution
2025-10-24 18:11:26
heres the link: [link removed]
2025-10-24 18:22:10
its dumb but its in the criteria: "Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify."
2025-10-24 19:54:35
that would not qualify unless they plan on shooting at cartel people there
2025-10-24 21:05:17
no
2025-10-25 09:35:57
This price shouldnt be so much higher than the Venezuela markets. No way they bomb anywhere other than Venezuela if they decide to bomb or go after land targets at all.
2025-10-25 16:00:56
Wdym
2025-10-25 18:28:56
why is new york so high? he hasent said much about new york and it would trigger new legal battles if he tried to deploy there
2025-10-25 18:32:14
[link removed].au/news/2025-10-20/what-will-happen-to-stolen-louvre-jewellery/105912134
2025-10-25 19:16:54
think about what would have to occur in 8 days for the elderly exiled oppostion leader with an arrest warrant and bounty on his head to step foot on the terriorty of the regime that is going to arrest him on sight
2025-10-25 20:10:21
You can buy the equivalent of these "venezuela x US military engagment" NO shares for December 31 in this market at a big discount, because the chance of any anti cartel strikes and the chance of anti cartel strikes in venezuela are practically equal, as the US would not violate any other less adversiral latin american country by striking land targets, its venezuela or not at all, and there are zero recent or credible reports of any plans to strike land cartel targets anywhere other than Venezuela: https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31?tid=1761422812058
2025-10-25 20:10:57
buy cheaper shares for practically the same event in this less efficient market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31?tid=1761422812058
2025-10-26 04:35:22
no because Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
2025-10-26 05:07:11
Yeah I thibk they are practically the same and the other one is overpriced on the yes side because a strike on any foreign soil other than venezuelas doesn’t seem on the agenda or feasibly at all rifht nkw
2025-10-26 05:09:44
Why is yes so high here? Look at the Venezuela military engagement markets where “any kinetic strike on Venezuela soil” qualifies even if just “cartel” targets instead of Venezuelan military, this markets price should match that ones within 2 to 5 cents. The us has never engaged on the ground or struck cartels in any foreign country and the only one that they are threatening to strike now and have the backing to strike is Venezuela
2025-10-26 05:14:25
If anything this market should be more bearish than that one because if the us gets into a engagement with the military of Venezuela alone instead of a cartel on their soil then that market will still resolve yes but this one won’t
2025-10-26 17:54:22
This market is gonna be 50-50 until a week left in the year lol
2025-10-26 20:16:00
i love this market
2025-10-26 20:25:42
a strike of this scale on the moscow region has happened many times, never been a succesfull hit on moscow municpilaty NO should still be around 70%. in a bit the reports of all the drones being intercepted will come out
2025-10-26 20:28:03
ukraine has struck the moscow oblast many times, they have never succesfully hit within the moscow municipality and the market criteria is strict. Last time this happened i got some nice 20 cent shares aswell.
2025-10-26 20:28:54
nobody can propose this exact thing has played out many times in this market. The criteria is very clear
2025-10-26 20:30:05
oh shit nvm sobyanin has been silent for an hour and a half. SHITTT I NEED TO SELL
2025-10-26 20:33:05
4 have been shot down so far - Sobyanin
2025-10-26 20:41:58
i give it 1 hour before YES is back down to 40 cents
2025-10-26 20:47:03
its not fake its just another strike on the moscow oblast and unseccfull strike on moscow city proper
2025-10-26 20:56:08
[link removed]
2025-10-26 21:07:06
What is known about the attack on Moscow on October 26? On October 26, between 8:49 PM and 9:11 PM, Sobyanin announced the downing of four drones heading toward Moscow. According to the official, emergency services are working at the site of the crash site.
2025-10-26 21:14:14
please save your money peope
2025-10-26 22:05:46
The criteria specifics only successful not-intercepted attacks that hit within the official borders of the Moscow municipality count. Moscow has a string air defense and despite numerous attempts Ukraine has not once successfully struck within Moscow city during the war. Tonight was another example of that
2025-10-26 22:06:03
Strong*
2025-10-27 00:38:55
send me a link
2025-10-27 01:23:03
this should be about 80 cents NO
2025-10-27 02:46:15
november or never, land strikes are the logical next step in esclalating...
2025-10-27 17:35:26
These markets should remain open into the next two days after in case a strike is first reported to have occurred days after it actually occurred
2025-10-28 17:47:45
any kinetic strike on venezuelan soil qualifies
2025-10-28 20:35:45
nice hedge between this and venezuela markets
2025-10-28 20:55:26
This market has the largest average PNL discrepancy between both sides I've ever seen
2025-10-28 21:18:46
so is it october 31? or is it tuesday? do we know?
2025-10-29 03:15:20
better not resolve till a day or so after
2025-10-29 17:21:07
[link removed]
2025-10-29 18:38:56
link?
2025-10-29 18:45:23
where does it say that it occured around 11 PM do you have a link to that?
2025-10-29 19:10:04
are there any actual reports that it was 10 to 11 pm or are you assuming since it was night vision?
2025-10-30 00:48:46
remeber there is 48 hours after october 29 ends where credible reporting of a strike having taken place on that day will count towards a "yes" resolution
2025-10-30 00:49:26
"If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place".
2025-10-31 03:30:45
It’s gonna happen tommorow
2025-10-31 04:37:59
It’s happened the last few fridays, it happens most on fridays. It might not happen
2025-10-31 15:48:52
Why no going up
2025-10-31 18:42:37
i have no idea why yes is up now haha. Is there some kind of military thing happening that precedes strikes?
2025-10-31 20:12:13
why are people so confident in december 31 yes?
2025-10-31 21:35:45
i feel like nobody actually knows whats gonna happen here
2025-10-31 21:45:22
gaza and west bank dont count: "Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution."
2025-10-31 22:14:20
what strategic purpose do the blatant denials serve?
2025-11-01 19:18:08
Reported 3 hours ago: “A series of air strikes targeted eastern Khan Younis earlier. Witnesses described constant heavy shelling and drone fire hitting what’s left of residential homes and farmland beyond the “yellow line”.
2025-11-01 19:18:20
[link removed]
2025-11-01 19:25:56
[link removed]
2025-11-01 19:39:22
al Jazeera, again 20 minutes ago: "If you’re just joining us Here’s what you need to know: Israeli fighter jets, artillery, and tanks have shelled areas around Khan Younis, Gaza’s second-largest city in the territory’s south, despite the ongoing ceasefire."
2025-11-01 19:47:14
warning im not suggesting this will resolve it to yes, just that there is action, Yes def shouldnt be valued at less then 10, if more reporting on these strikes come out only then will resolve to yes
2025-11-01 19:47:22
be careful these markets are scammy
2025-11-01 23:15:36
the problem with these markets is that we most of the time we just cant know 100% whether a strike, or totally criteria-meeting strike occurred, there are often a bunch of semi-contradicting reports in different national and local media sources, with unclear timelines and hazy details. I think that for the last two weeks you could basically put a 60% probablity on at least one qualifying strike having occured, but then these markets tend to resolve to NO because there isnt clear reporting. If only there was a way for markets to resolve to 60/40 or 70/30 or something
2025-11-03 02:04:50
Israel gonna bomb Venezuela mark my words
2025-11-04 02:17:26
no
2025-11-09 19:25:49
looks like a repeat of november 4... I think UMA is pretty strict on requiring either IDF confirmation or very widespread international media reporting
2025-11-09 19:26:29
November 9 is no
2025-11-09 19:27:02
no consensus, little reporting, weapons used unclear, timeline unclear
2025-11-09 21:06:32
It’s based off the precedent on November 4 that NO will prevail, the idf has not confirmed the strikes all reports come from Lebanese media and details are hazy. Not enough evidence for UMA
2025-11-09 22:29:35
No
2025-11-09 23:12:38
The Israeli reports all clearly indicate that the info is coming solely from “Hezbollah affiliated media” so it seems dubious
2025-11-10 05:21:54
Pack it up guys it’s a new day
2025-11-11 16:21:25
Why it go down all of a sudden?
2025-11-12 03:37:55
I think it’s gonna happen again cause it’s been happening a lot
2025-11-12 18:49:53
looks like not a drone strike or airstrike
2025-11-12 19:06:32
i feel bad for how i make money in these markets
2025-11-12 19:16:52
they shooted at them
2025-11-12 19:24:37
why even is thta
2025-11-12 19:28:53
im sorry
2025-11-12 19:29:25
these markets are all about the rules, your betting on the criteria
2025-11-12 19:29:37
which is unfortunate
2025-11-12 21:47:48
i feel like its unlikely they tweet again about this incident, and as of now only gunfire is reported so idk \
2025-11-12 22:56:49
Holy mackerel
2025-11-13 17:54:52
The cbs article says a pentagon official confirmed it?
2025-11-13 18:35:54
I’m all in on 15
2025-11-13 19:04:15
Should always qualify I think, cbs announced it but obviously it was sourced from the pentagon
2025-11-13 19:04:23
Already qualify*
2025-11-14 18:43:13
any aerial strikes would count as long as the target is on foreign soil, also US troops have to be involved specifically in combat for a yes resolution not just intelligence, but they can be involved in combat as part of a joint operation with foreign officials
2025-11-14 21:51:37
true
2025-11-14 22:19:10
ill sell you no shares at anything more than 72 deal? ill place the order just say the word
2025-11-15 00:10:33
woah what just happend
2025-11-15 02:45:53
shouldnt this count for brazil: [link removed]
2025-11-15 04:27:14
Brazil: [link removed].br/tarifas-de-reciprocidade-apos-nova-ordem-dos-estados-unidos-flpc96/
2025-11-15 04:29:36
I think there’s already a decent case for yes on Brazil? He lowered tariffs on beef
2025-11-15 04:32:29
They lowered tariffs on Brazil: [link removed]
2025-11-15 04:36:14
[link removed]
2025-11-15 04:50:30
[link removed]
2025-11-15 04:54:46
i think a case can be made for resolving Brazil to "yes": [link removed] [link removed]
2025-11-27 06:02:11
Your right!
2025-11-27 18:11:49
why were people buying yesterday
2025-11-28 05:21:44
Not sure this will resolve to no for 1 can’t find reports of airstrikes specifally, only artillery and helicopter fire
2025-11-28 05:31:19
Ya artillery shelling and ground incursions of this nature have been happening for the last two months without any qualifying air strikes occurring
2025-11-28 05:40:36
Air Force aircraft were scrambled but could not engage due to the extremely close proximity between IDF soldiers and the attackers.
2025-11-28 05:43:03
"An Israeli occupation patrol advanced into the town of Beit Jann in an attempt to arrest one of the residents. Locals confronted the raid, leading to a brief clash during which Israeli helicopters and artillery intervened"
2025-11-28 06:07:46
"However, the aircraft could not strike the attackers due to the close proximity between the militants and the Israeli troops."
2025-11-28 21:14:32
if trump hasent confirmed it by the end of november or there isnt consensus enough for UMA will the market stay open until its clear what happened?
2025-11-28 21:17:16
lol the moment i commented no price doubled
2025-11-28 21:20:18
there have been a bunch of strikes today but it will likely resolve to no because all the reporting is from lebanese national media havent found any idf confirmation and mostly smaller strikes it seems
2025-11-28 21:36:00
december market is not being proposed so why is this one?
2025-11-28 21:37:03
whos disputing?
2025-11-28 21:37:45
theres no way this can resolve yes while the december market remains open, their criteria are identical: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-talk-to-nicols-maduro-by-december-31?tid=1764359570891
2025-11-28 21:47:16
if you dispute just point to the other market which hasent resolved although the criteria is the same
2025-11-29 19:43:05
mavenico why are you so confident in this
2025-11-30 19:40:44
odds should be same or a bit lower than this market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-december-31-391-819-722-945-174-285-817-971-353-859-836-598-255?tid=1764531202640
2025-11-30 19:41:10
cause no other country expect venezuela is gonna get striked
2025-11-30 19:55:51
This article reports on the strikes on tunnels in gaza and the killing of a hamas commander, its ambigous if a airforce strike occured from the text of the article but the article links to a video on the IDF youtube posted 3 hours ago clearly showing airrstrikes being conducted:[link removed]
2025-11-30 19:57:03
video posted 3 hours ago, showing airstrikes alongside the one depicting the ground operation earlier: [link removed]
2025-11-30 20:06:42
From Times of Israel: "Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck a group of terror operatives who emerged from tunnels in eastern Rafah"
2025-11-30 20:07:01
Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck a group of terror operatives who emerged from tunnels in eastern Rafah
2025-11-30 20:07:10
thats from times of israel
2025-11-30 20:08:10
[link removed]
2025-11-30 20:14:13
it should resolve yes just from the times of israel article i linked alone but i bought a 6 cents to sell at 30 cause i dont trust that it will resolve how it should
2025-11-30 20:14:29
not scamming just wanna take profits
2025-11-30 20:38:20
ok the times of israel article says "Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck a group of terror operatives" but then other artitcles say that the air force provided "support" so its not clear i guess this will go to no
2025-11-30 20:48:33
should be yes but these markets are always very strict about the "consensus" part and it doesnt seem 100% clear that for the rafah operation the airforce actually conducted a kinetic strike. I think the times of israel reporting should be enough but other sources dont say the same thing so i think it will end up going no
2025-11-30 20:58:10
Yeah quote below me should be enough for yes but these markets are weird
2025-12-01 22:48:13
[link removed]
2025-12-01 23:47:43
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declared on Monday that one suspect who crossed the yellow line and approached the IDF troops in the central Gaza Strip was eliminated during an airstrike earlier today.
2025-12-01 23:48:00
[link removed]
2025-12-01 23:48:20
A Palestinian terror operative who approached Israeli troops in the central Gaza Strip earlier today was killed in an airstrike, the military says.
2025-12-02 01:13:58
Stop wasting your money people: A Palestinian terror operative who approached Israeli troops in the central Gaza Strip earlier today was killed in an airstrike, the military says
2025-12-02 01:14:17
[link removed]
2025-12-02 01:15:49
“ The IDF says the operative was identified crossing the Yellow Line demarcating the military’s withdrawal in the territory by soldiers of the Gaza Division’s Southern Brigade who are stationed in the area. The operative approached troops “in a way that posed an immediate threat,” the military says, adding that the soldiers directed a drone strike, which “eliminated the terrorist.”
2025-12-02 01:36:00
Maybe Times of Israel fabricated a idf statement of a drone strike
2025-12-02 02:02:24
Still waiting for bibi to confirm the strike in this comment section, if he doesn’t within the hour I’m disputing
2025-12-02 18:13:48
Hegseth: "We have only just begun striking narco boats and putting narco terrorists at the bottom of the ocean. President Trump said we’re taking the gloves off. That’s exactly what we’re doing… We have had a bit of a pause because it’s hard to find boats to strike right now.
2025-12-02 19:12:40
"if necessary" - Pete Hegsetj
2025-12-02 19:16:23
i think trump has said land strikes are coming soon like a dozen times over the last few months
2025-12-02 19:19:45
yes
2025-12-02 19:46:24
December 15 is overvalued, market is basically valuing a strike occuring after 15 days and not before at 10%
2025-12-02 19:47:30
Cause if you buy yes for dec 31 and no for Dec 15 it adds up to 110 rn so you stand to lose 10%
2025-12-02 19:49:34
Or my math is wrong idk
2025-12-02 20:31:13
yeah this seems major: [link removed]
2025-12-02 20:32:09
and hegseth also specifally said "if neccesary" when talking about land strikes, so i think more threats and backroom conversations are likely to come before a strike
2025-12-04 19:08:27
why did the price go down so much today?
2025-12-05 04:51:04
They are doing the paperwork rn people
2025-12-06 14:15:22
Now I feel like the price has dropped a bit too much, it doesn’t mean nothing that he keeps saying they’re gonna do it soon. He says a lot of things yes… but it’s not nothing
2025-12-07 07:27:08
I feel it in my hips for December 7
2025-12-08 01:58:10
what if they were all intercepted would it still go yes?
2025-12-08 02:07:08
i see
2025-12-08 07:39:20
[link removed]
2025-12-08 07:45:13
[link removed]
2025-12-08 08:19:56
True but seems like a major strike so I think likely that the idf confirms it
2025-12-08 22:33:54
its december 8 the first reports came out december 8 and then the idf confirmed shortly after, saying they did a strike. they confirmed before dec 9 and after 12 am dec 9
2025-12-08 22:34:45
Mannie fabian reported at 1148 pm dec 8 on airstrikes there you go
2025-12-08 23:07:14
theres video of the strike taking place on the 8th, the first reports are from the 8th Israel Standard Time, that included idf reports and lebanese reports
2025-12-08 23:17:28
IDF confirmation from 1120 PM december 8 Israel time: [link removed]
2025-12-08 23:18:46
hmm daylight savings
2025-12-08 23:20:28
we know that these markets resolve based on when the strike took place, even if idf confirmation comes a day or two later. many of the idf reports are from december 9 but they refer to the strike on december 8, the idf tweets came out a few minutes after midnight and refer to a strike conducred "a short while ago" so unelss they struck adn then tweeted 1 minute later, and the videos that came out on december 8 are fake, then this resolves YES
2025-12-08 23:25:51
This has been very fishy, the way some whales have been trading on this
2025-12-08 23:28:54
this is so dumb because we all know that the bombs were dropped on december 8 right? were just betting on what UMA will do?
2025-12-08 23:32:13
the fact that the IDF reports came out a few minutes after dec 8 doesnt matter because this market has resolved YES like 3 times before based on IDF confirmation that came out a day after the actual strike
2025-12-08 23:35:05
nobody buy at 98 cents if you value your sanity
2025-12-08 23:52:04
idk how the UMA is going to interpret it, i bought yes at first now im hedged
2025-12-09 00:08:51
at least we can be sure about december 9\
2025-12-09 00:16:19
im in lebanon aswell but im not sure if the strike occured at 1159pm 8th or 1201 am 9th its somehwere between those two
2025-12-09 00:19:50
some has a 200k order on yes wowzers
2025-12-09 21:09:08
seems to be strikes in khan younis, but wont go yes unless idf confirms: [link removed]
2025-12-09 23:49:58
Wouldn’t be suprrised if confirmation comes out at some point for the strikes tn cause their were alot of reports in Palestinian media
2025-12-10 02:53:24
Weren’t these the new weapons that are considered missiles by US?
2025-12-10 03:17:47
Yeah unfortunate, we’ve all lost money on rules like these
2025-12-10 19:15:58
wowzers: [link removed]
2025-12-10 21:07:11
colombia is next jeez
2025-12-10 21:15:05
oil tanker is russian and not military
2025-12-10 21:21:43
he just said he likes alot in a press conference, he doesnt want to fire her
2025-12-10 23:40:09
explosions in moscow city?
2025-12-14 05:00:29
uzbekistan
2025-12-14 20:01:22
True
2025-12-15 02:30:19
Is this why there’s a spike?: [link removed]
2025-12-15 19:56:02
its one of the fishermen he's securing his family's future right now as he looks up at the fighter jet
2025-12-15 22:03:10
WAIT HE MEANT THE BLOOMINGTON BYCICLE CLUB
2025-12-15 22:19:33
ok lisa
2025-12-16 01:07:07
Unlikely, she’s shameless
2025-12-16 01:07:17
He’s*
2025-12-16 17:39:17
Your a numbskull
2025-12-16 22:10:00
[link removed]
2025-12-16 22:23:16
they can destroy hamas infrastructure with airstrikes, happens often, good chance whether its airstrikes or not details are confirmed
2025-12-16 22:23:22
cause airstrikes are occuring
2025-12-17 21:38:24
is this all because of what tucker carlson said or is other stuff happening genuine question
2025-12-18 03:28:55
Last time this happened was WW2, every war since then congress has not declared
2025-12-19 02:31:01
was their reporting on it before the december 23 market opened?
2025-12-19 22:02:56
did it happen on that exact date though?
2025-12-19 22:51:12
https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025/maduro-out-in-2025-411
2025-12-20 05:05:33
they still have more files to release guys
2025-12-20 18:09:05
contradictory reports coming in not sure at this point if it qualifies: From Axios "One of the sources briefed on the action said the decision to board the tanker was a sign that the U.S.'s unprecedented armada off Venezuela isn't for show. "Even if we don't seize the oil, it's telling everyone who decides to play this game that we're going to interdict you at will," the source said. "Who is going to want to take that risk?"
2025-12-20 18:12:41
"This is the second tanker carrying Venezuelan oil to be boarded by the U.S. It is unclear if the U.S. will take control of the oil as it did with the vessel Skipper, the first of its kind seized on Dec. 10."
2025-12-20 18:17:27
not saying its likely to go NO but there isnt enough info yet, it could be just a boarding show of force
2025-12-20 18:54:52
I'm waiting for Car to join and give the final judgment
2025-12-20 19:06:59
All the headlines are saying "seized" but then the axious report says only a show of force boarding, and this latest article from 12 minutes ago, says "interdicted" which could mean only a boarding aswell, boarding is materailly different than takin control of fully and rerouting,[link removed]
2025-12-20 19:07:06
idk i could be wrong but id like a link
2025-12-20 19:09:09
this article implies not a seizure: [link removed]
2025-12-20 19:16:18
i really really think this is not confirmed to be a seizure yet, a boarding and "interdiction" without taking control is materially different and its not clear if this is anything more than that yet. Ussually when the price looks like this its guaranteed by i dont know at this point
2025-12-20 19:39:09
the headlines say "seized" but the content of the reports suggest otherwise
2025-12-20 19:54:18
I’m not trying to mislead anyone I just think it’s at least more than 5% chance that once all reporting comes out this is revealed to be only a boarding show of force thing not a full seizure
2025-12-20 20:22:22
maybe idk, thats what this article implies: [link removed]
2025-12-20 20:28:25
when i have any doubt about something then ill buy no shares at 1 cent and maybe 2% of the time it pays off
2025-12-20 20:41:48
if someone can link me reporting that clearly shows that this operation meets this part of the criteria, then ill buy 3000 yes shares: "Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a [link removed] port."
2025-12-20 20:44:53
no i bought when it was at 1 cent im not sure if theres more than a 10% chance so dont wanna buy more no at this price
2025-12-20 21:14:14
a "seizure" is a specific thing that involves taking control of a vessel, an "apprehension" is not neccesarilly a sezuire, the rules are quite specific, i still havent found any reports that clearly meet the criteria: Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a [link removed] port."
2025-12-20 21:18:45
is someone gonna dispute? i dont think this part of the rules is fully met: Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a [link removed] port.
2025-12-20 21:30:09
last time they used the language "took control of" but all im not seeing that here
2025-12-20 21:41:52
im gonna dispute at one minute left and buy a bunch of 0,1 shares and then retire early and go off grid
2025-12-20 22:04:09
haha
2025-12-20 22:43:17
wow so sad i might be right but i dont have uma
2025-12-20 22:43:43
i still dont know if they actually seized it, i think they just boarded it
2025-12-20 23:16:30
i cant dispute dont have uma coin but think i might have won if i did, someone put evidence that they did more than board it in the chat if they can i would feel better if i was proved wrong
2025-12-20 23:30:30
yes i understand that the headlines say "seizure" but i cant find details that actually show that it meets the criteria, it looks like they may have just boarded it as a show of force and then let it go. I guess we will see as more reporting comes out
2025-12-20 23:33:51
i actually made 20 bucks on this market
2025-12-21 01:23:21
Holy mackerel they’re gonna release more files soon
2025-12-21 03:45:59
What
2025-12-21 07:12:31
Just buy yes on Venezuela don’t think they’re gonna bomb Colombia or Mexico those are ally or semi-friendly nations that already cooperate with America on anti drug trafficking operations.
2025-12-21 17:25:48
I’m sitting this one out
2025-12-21 19:38:04
why is "no" price here lower than the "yes" price for only "maduro out" if this one also includes other options, can someone explain, or is it just inneficiency?
2025-12-21 20:17:42
this is interesting, chatgpt told me it could escape to venezuelan waters and then the coast guard is unlikely to keep pursuing it
2025-12-21 21:14:37
that incident resolved yesterdays market to yes, this current market is regarding a different ship which has not yet been seized but is being chased by the coast guard right now
2025-12-21 22:48:36
coast guard went home for the weekend
2025-12-22 18:08:16
watch out people insider is likely
2025-12-22 22:39:12
they posted it they will say whatever they want "f any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video has been significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented,"
2025-12-22 23:49:28
who has that big order on the no side
2025-12-24 09:17:10
10% chance in ten days cause he does them randomly, once imposed 40% tarrif on Brazil with executive order and national emergency declaration
2025-12-26 00:04:20
That 50% tarrif was imposed in 2017 ish not now
2025-12-26 00:50:32
“Imposes” doesn’t mean notify of a potential change in more than a year
2025-12-26 00:50:41
Also wasent an executive action
2025-12-26 01:04:02
It doesn’t have to be in effect as in company’s are paying it but it has to be the law, not a notification of a potential future change in policy y
2025-12-26 01:05:19
Dec 25 must stay open until we get confirmation of whether it was seized
2025-12-26 20:05:35
whats going on?
2025-12-29 05:43:54
Buy cheaper yes shares here: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-january-31-2026-977?tid=1766987009808
2025-12-29 17:21:05
Decent chance that nothing happened and he’s just talking nonsense
2025-12-29 19:06:54
we dont know anything about this, was it american forces or venezuelan operatives? was it an airstrike or a cyber attack or some kind of sabotage operation? did it happen at all? was it a cartel target?
2025-12-29 19:38:38
Trump called this a "strike" on a dock in Venezuela and look at this market only at 25% ish to resolve yes, there is no way this market will resolve based on the current information:https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-january-31-2026-977?tid=1767036075067
2025-12-29 19:49:19
that market included "any kinetic strke on venzuelan soil" and its not resolving yes
2025-12-29 20:28:29
there is no clear evidence that anything meeting or barely meeting the criteria occured, trump says all sorts of things
2025-12-29 20:48:47
we dont know who did it? could have been venezeulan operatives with indirect help from US personnel? am i wrong?
2025-12-29 20:59:38
im not saying its very likely that it doenst resolve YES but we just dont know, could be a cyber attack, could be sabotage, could be Venezuelan operatives rather than us troops, etc...
2025-12-29 21:48:58
Do you have a link confirming this or are you speculating?
2025-12-29 21:57:46
Ground based sabotage operation by proxy forces
2025-12-29 23:12:56
no cause likely didnt involve us troops, rather proxys in venezuela doing sabotage or bombing
2025-12-29 23:13:30
No evidence of direct us troops, cia, dea, or military involvment on the ground, this would be conspicous
2025-12-30 03:39:58
Does it have to happen again for march to resolve since the market was created Dec 22?
2025-12-30 17:09:27
If we can find one report before Dec 31 that specifies that us military conducted airstrikes then we can resolve yes
2025-12-30 17:10:16
Cause based on current reporting they certainly did it just hasent been spelled out fully
2025-12-30 17:30:42
If you can propose or find someone to propose you can make that argument to UMA worth a try if airstrikes are implied
2025-12-30 17:34:29
If you propose and make a good argument whales will see that and jump in
2025-12-30 17:39:44
I just woke up, I think you have some special info or connections maybe so you should see if that can help us get confirmation
2025-12-30 19:46:44
Maybe this could qualify, especially if there is more reporting on it: Dec 30: "HASAKAH, Syria (North Press) The [link removed] Global Coalition forces carried out on Monday evening airstrikes, targeting sites belonging to the Islamic State (ISIS) in the western desert of Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria. A military source inside the Shaddadi base, south of Hasakah, told North Press that Coalition forces fired two missiles from the base at ISIS positions in the Deir ez-Zor countryside."
2025-12-30 19:46:48
[link removed]
2025-12-31 00:14:52
Nobody is wash trading lol
2025-12-31 01:33:59
ChatGPT
2025-12-31 18:46:05
new year
2025-12-31 21:37:19
1 vessel on dec 29 plus 3 more today 4 distinct vessels total dont waste your money
2026-01-01 04:15:44
Crazy plot twist here I was getting filled for 0.3 a few hours earlier for 5+
2026-01-03 06:59:04
This is one of the biggest happenings I’ve seen my whole life
2026-01-03 07:21:10
Wow
2026-01-03 09:14:08
They just bombed Venezuela
2026-01-03 09:25:54
This is insane
2026-01-03 09:26:34
Greatest degen redistribution in polymarket history
2026-01-03 18:03:21
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-doomsday-clock-move-by-ten-seconds-or-more?tid=1767463386298
2026-01-03 19:01:34
They will invade later if Venezuela regime doesn’t meet their demands
2026-01-03 19:04:34
This wasent an invasion but they might invade later when regime doesn’t meet their demands and stuff
2026-01-03 19:09:59
Why hasent this resolved?
2026-01-03 19:41:39
Honestly could be disputable at this point but I wounldnt try
2026-01-03 21:42:26
Marco Rubio
2026-01-03 21:42:31
Lil Marco
2026-01-03 22:36:35
ummmm [link removed]
2026-01-03 22:40:14
i know but maybe they can do a last minute adjustment or something
2026-01-03 23:24:16
Didn’t they just hit military installations in this strike? Rather than the last one which was explicitly labeled as against a facility involved in drug trafficking? Also the idea that the Venezuelan military is itself a cartel or operating on health of a cartel is highly disputed
2026-01-03 23:37:56
Yeah ofc
2026-01-04 02:31:59
I think we’re getting farmed sadly
2026-01-06 03:47:19
Hell no
2026-01-06 03:52:11
Money for free
2026-01-06 22:14:17
why now? just cause of the protests?
2026-01-07 03:09:01
Setting aside the insider activity we’re seeing, here’s my theory: nothing ever happens
2026-01-07 06:51:00
Would be very smart of her to do it
2026-01-07 07:10:51
They have to do it to distract from the Epstein files or something
2026-01-08 02:26:17
But kimdotcom said
2026-01-09 03:07:20
once Trump finds out its not actually green there hell abandon the idea
2026-01-09 06:23:32
Unjustified freakout here
2026-01-09 19:36:11
trump says land strikes are coming soon, the drug boats mostly come from colombia and colombia is the epicenter of cocaine trafficking, so i would say this is unlikely but undervalued right now
2026-01-10 17:31:38
Your right and trump would respect those rules
2026-01-11 21:20:13
i think trump is going to politely refuse and declare that he is not worthy of such a high honor
2026-01-12 03:40:38
sinners will lose i think
2026-01-12 23:09:11
Car is Lindsay graham those tweets are to pump up yes
2026-01-13 00:39:37
hes been talking about land strikes on cartels for so long and the ELN in venezuela is an obvious target
2026-01-13 20:43:49
save your money: [link removed]
2026-01-13 21:13:55
africa command didnt even submnit any evidence that they did a strike this does not qualify
2026-01-13 22:03:58
Africa command is lying
2026-01-13 23:40:57
i like this market
2026-01-13 23:41:03
we need another one
2026-01-14 00:41:16
why would the US attack somalia? cause of the daycares? seriously?
2026-01-14 23:33:30
they need more time then they will strike
2026-01-15 16:53:35
Khamenei didn’t sing John Lennon’s imagine so no strike
2026-01-15 20:47:51
im refreshing the page for the next 24 hours
2026-01-15 21:54:20
finding the rss was clever
2026-01-16 01:04:28
I think this can be resolved "yes", "will the us strike somalia next" resolved yes today based on this rss feed reporting a strike today that occured on the 14th, the day that this market was created: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-somalia-by-january-31-338/us-strike-on-somalia-by-january-31-338 RSS: [link removed]
2026-01-16 21:17:02
wheres greenland?!?!?!?!
2026-01-17 19:32:33
It’s not going yes yet because the market was created at around 1 pm PDT Jan 14 but we don’t know if the strike on Jan 14 occurred before that or not
2026-01-18 02:36:25
I think he will have to settle for a trump tower
2026-01-19 00:38:44
what are people betting "other" expecting?
2026-01-20 00:29:36
This market is about Minnesota
2026-01-20 18:02:50
Orangeland
2026-01-21 19:34:42
i actually bought more yes shares after reading your post @syanovee
2026-01-21 21:55:01
denmark is in nato and greenland is part of denmark
2026-01-21 23:00:37
Trump seems so excited by this deal so i think it will probably include some sort of US sovereignty over some islands. It gives him the chance to say that the US "controls" greenland. I bet he'll rename them to trump islands aswell or something
2026-01-22 22:53:51
Trump wants a fourth term! [link removed]
2026-01-22 23:35:27
check this market out as well! : https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-military-engagement-by/us-x-iran-military-engagement-by-march-31
2026-01-22 23:46:38
Trump wants a fourth term! [link removed]
2026-01-23 18:32:54
no one could have seen this coming
2026-01-23 22:28:12
hello
2026-01-24 20:15:33
trump will def do this to distract from the epstein files
2026-01-24 21:09:28
If Somalia doesn’t distract enough then he’ll invade Greenland
2026-01-25 18:52:55
Hopefully
2026-01-28 15:32:29
Doesn’t qualify unless we know the exact time, cause 12 pm in Somalia would be before market was created no?
2026-01-28 16:39:02
I bought yes on this one and no on the other one worst possible move damn
2026-01-28 19:21:05
whats special about feb 1st? someone tell me why if your buying yes
2026-01-28 19:28:21
why is feb 1st yes price higher
2026-01-28 19:34:03
below the title you can click on feb 28 to see prices for each day of that month
2026-01-29 06:06:53
Seems fbi captured Ryan wedding drug trafficker in Mexico: [link removed]
2026-01-30 06:58:06
Can we add Nicki Minaj?
2026-01-31 18:41:23
buy more no shares for cheaper: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-military-engagement-by/us-x-iran-military-engagement-by-march-31
2026-02-01 19:33:52
another interesting market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741
2026-02-02 17:18:05
It’s from feb 1 2025 the one trump announced its old free dispute here
2026-02-02 17:18:48
This is the strike from a year ago that trump posted: [link removed]
2026-02-02 17:22:34
“2025” [link removed]
2026-02-02 17:25:40
Someone should dispute this people are trying to resolve if based on a strike from 2025: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-somalia-by-february-7
2026-02-04 16:59:27
Syria struck five times on the 27th to Feb 2, within this timeframe and before the Feb 1 Somalia strike: [link removed]
2026-02-04 17:00:03
So can be resolved to Syria
2026-02-04 17:14:44
They reported five strikes on Syria on the days is 27 to Feb 2, so the Jan 30 and 31st strikes came before the Feb 1 Somalia strike
2026-02-04 17:16:06
Neither Syria nor Somalia has clear time stamps so we assume 12 pm local time for both and in that case aswell Syria wins
2026-02-04 17:20:15
I’m gonna make sure this resolves accurately
2026-02-04 17:25:08
Syria struck five times on the 27th to Feb 2, within this timeframe and before the Feb 1 Somalia strike: [link removed]
2026-02-04 17:52:48
I think Syria will win we assume it’s 12 pm local time, and they explicitly mention dates 3 of which are before the Feb 1 Somalia strike and after market creation time
2026-02-04 18:01:18
Ok I just booked a flight to Tampa Florida where the Centcom headquarters is, im getting confirmation of the exact date and then I’m flying to Washington to get Trumps signature on the document if I I’m successful I estimate a 35% chance I win this dispute hold strong everyone
2026-02-04 18:03:14
Cause it might lose on dispute and I don’t want to have thousands riding on a dispute rather take some profit
2026-02-04 18:22:10
the rules are ambigious when it comes to whether a [[range of dates, where it is implied there was a strike on multiple of them, and 3 of those dates come before the singular date of the other earliest strike]] would qualify and there is zero precedent for this situation, im not trying to pump and dump i genuinly think there is a plus 20% chance that UMA decides not to be pedantic and resolves to syria if someone wants to try, anyway this seemed like a major operation so more details could come out soon
2026-02-04 22:13:11
dont throw away money on syria it comes down to UMA, and all the accounts that know UMA are selling Syria shares
2026-02-07 01:01:55
they should....
2026-02-08 00:02:25
Bookmark this: a strike will occur at 10 pm ET February 29
2026-02-08 02:26:23
It’s happening tommorw to distract from that Obama monkey video
2026-02-08 17:53:47
can someone request a march 31 and 2026 market that would be more interesting
2026-02-11 16:57:44
There won’t be a strike because us military will respect isis holy celebrations
2026-02-13 06:59:24
The New York financier??!?
2026-02-14 08:44:50
3 days left
2026-02-14 21:44:04
i like betting against the same numbskulls who think that epstein was eating babies
2026-02-15 16:08:22
Wait
2026-02-16 02:22:53
Can we add Epstein?
2026-02-17 18:16:21
check this market out: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-us-next-strike-iran-week
2026-02-17 21:33:52
i have sponsored this market where you can bet on which week the first strike will occur, check it out! : https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-us-next-strike-iran-week
2026-02-17 21:59:23
I have sponsored this market where you can bet on which week the first strike will occur, check it out! : https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-us-next-strike-iran-week
2026-02-18 18:52:17
I have sponsored this market on exactly how many countries the us will strike in february, maybe a war with Iran escalates to Iraq, Yemen and beyond! Here is the market: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-february
2026-02-18 23:04:48
now is the perfect time to buy iran
2026-02-19 01:24:25
Trump wouldn't start a war during black history month
2026-02-19 18:54:35
they were already indicted a year ago and not due to info in the epstein files
2026-02-19 19:05:08
andrew doesnt count cause its uk and the brothers trafficking case they were already indicted a year ago and their charges dont stem from epstein files
2026-02-19 20:07:46
Not sure this is possible
2026-02-20 01:28:29
When pressed by Devine about whether she believes in the possibility of aliens and UFOs, Gabbard answered "yes."
"According to the Post, Gabbard said she was not "prepared to talk about" the issue at this time, but her team would be transparent with the public at some point in the future.
"We're continuing to look for the truth and share that truth with the American people," she said."
2026-02-20 01:29:21
rfk also definitely believes in aliens, we already know he believes in chemtrails
2026-02-20 02:05:08
this is possibly the word bond ive ever seen, if anyone in the cabinet, including RFK, Tulsi Gabbard or Kash Patel say that aliens exist it goes Yes
2026-02-21 01:40:40
can we add a 25% ?
2026-02-21 21:25:25
i think the market resolved fairly but the title doesnt match up with the rules very well. Its not certain that this qualifies as a charge based on a "fake daycare" or "daycare fraud" but the rules say "alleged fake daycare" and this is definitely widely framed as part of the broader "fake daycare" story. Also this person was charged with falsifying records related to number of children in their facility so its at least fraud related to a daycare
2026-02-22 06:42:01
He will nominate Judy to distract from the Epstein files đź§
2026-02-26 00:17:32
19
2026-02-27 05:41:49
Africom pr person is being lazy again
2026-02-27 21:37:24
No he didn’t
2026-02-28 18:08:43
Something always happens!!!
2026-03-04 02:07:21
theres no evidence that this operation was more than intel, support or logistical. for a yes resolution a strike or on the ground enegagment is required. [link removed]
2026-03-04 02:43:08
i sent friend request
2026-03-05 01:49:21
judy is other
2026-03-07 04:34:19
Breaking: Dozens of Kurdish fighters have entered Iran
2026-03-07 19:33:47
they had a great run but i think these markets have lost their bond status
2026-03-10 19:58:32
iran removes the mines from strait of hormuz and then we have a ceasefire yay!
2026-03-11 00:07:21
if she mogs him she should get a diamond polymarket chain
2026-03-12 03:41:15
who is that huge yes order?
2026-03-15 18:18:56
just bet on diaz being out
2026-03-18 01:31:50
jeff why?
2026-03-20 18:12:59
"us military not invading cuba": Gen Francis Donovan, head of US Southern Command,
2026-03-23 07:01:19
He is a vampire
2026-03-29 19:42:40
The price is very high
2026-04-03 14:57:34
None
2026-04-11 06:00:53
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by Israel
2026-04-13 16:37:03
sanchez
2026-04-13 16:38:04
sanchez's voters are rural subsistence farmers they are not captured in polls, and not in the first batch of results
2026-04-16 01:20:57
the two besties!
2026-04-17 19:52:50
sanchez can win
2026-04-18 18:59:11
tonight he will announce that iran is becoming the 51st state
2026-04-20 04:53:06
pure analysis baby
2026-04-21 16:47:21
“provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.“
2026-04-22 20:18:44
[link removed]
2026-04-22 20:51:48
thats possible but hezbollah has to agree, and this criteria is the same as iran-us extension market where it went no cause iran didnt recognize it
2026-04-22 21:08:36
iran isnt recongizning this extension with the us, this market criteria is copy and paste of that one. Irgc could direct hezbollah to be ambigous about the ceasefire, and hezbollah is already denying this one
2026-04-22 21:09:11
"provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect."
2026-04-23 05:23:27
I’m seeing a lot more profile pictures on the yes side
2026-04-23 21:48:49
rules are same as the iran us extension
2026-05-06 00:40:37
why may 15 so low guys
2026-05-06 19:22:54
I feel like he wants to be able to say the war is over before he goes to China guys
2026-05-11 03:08:32
till next week
2026-05-12 20:16:12
what are they even gonna invade
2026-05-13 23:24:00
None
2026-05-13 23:26:11
None
2026-05-14 20:54:09
wont be time to say anything in between all the making out
2026-05-14 20:55:38
None
2026-05-17 19:15:20
guys now is the time to buy the dip
2026-05-17 19:15:48
something about june 15 calls to me
2026-05-18 21:21:34
the reporting is pretty straightforward, something strange would have to happen for this to canceled. I don't think trump cares enough to get in the way of this
2026-05-19 03:05:12
The US is controlled by the saudis!
2026-05-19 19:06:38
im scared
2026-05-20 19:55:52
they are gonna sign a nice deal
2026-05-20 20:33:42
i sold 1000 of the total 15,000 for june
2026-05-21 18:18:12
whatever is in the deal, trump is gonna say the war is over, he's very excited to put out a Truth and make oil prices dump
2026-05-23 17:12:24
He’s gonna have a heart attack if they try to capture him
2026-05-31 05:11:33
Are you guys crazy?
2026-05-31 05:12:30
explicate
2026-05-31 17:04:46
it wasn't diplomacy its just the monthly us-cuba military poker night
2026-05-31 17:05:14
they made a rule that they arent even allowed to talk about politics at poker night
2026-06-04 01:46:02
idk
2026-06-04 01:46:12
just dont pay too much for either side
2026-06-10 16:46:21
He’s giving war one more chance so I think June 15 is cooked but June 30 is very nice!
2026-06-10 22:31:15
Every healthy ceasefire has incidents like this
2026-06-12 23:46:13
For the first time i think Iran isn't looking to delay this!
2026-06-12 23:47:14
I think there is a deal that they like that Trump is ready to agree to and they just want to move fast before he changes his mind!
2026-06-13 06:35:57
The reporting is wrong it won’t be framed as a 60 day ceasefire nobody wants that
2026-06-13 06:36:08
It will include a declaration that the war is over
2026-06-13 17:55:37
wow so many crazy things happening guys, good luck to everyone and don't bet more than you can afford to lose
2026-06-14 23:46:11
well played everybody i wish everyone the best in life, if you bet too much you will be ok a lot of people struggle with disordered gambling.
2026-06-15 00:04:41
hey guys DO NOT BUY NO, look at the profit graphs of everyone on the yes side, they know what they are doing and know how to intepret the criteria, which clearly states that this qualifies!
2026-06-15 00:08:00
guys if big traders are selling their YES shares that does not mean they think NO is good value or that they are trying to pump and dump or anything, they may be taking profits or predicting price moves to buy cheaper.
2026-06-16 20:57:42
troop withdrawal cant go yes if the clause specifies that it is conditional on a future deal getting signed, a deal that explicitly has a 60 day negotiation window and that no side has committed to.
2026-06-16 20:58:36
The MOU does not have any commitment or agreement to withdraw troops it only outlines that if a future deal is agreed on then troop withdrawal could occur if Iran meets some of the US demands
2026-06-16 20:59:59
this part of the rules clearly excludes measures (troop withdrawal) that are contingent on an entirely different speculative deal getting agreed on:
"Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify."
2026-06-17 00:15:11
I don’t think any US concession described in the MOU as contingent on the progress of negotiations towards a separate, final, not yet agreed on, nuclear deal should qualify for Yes
2026-06-17 00:17:27
If it’s conditional on Iran agreeing to another nuclear deal, that they have not yet agreed to and may never agree to, then it’s not a “definitive and explicit acceptance”
2026-06-17 05:41:25
Never heard of it
2026-06-17 18:16:52
American official: Our forces will not withdraw from Iran's surroundings until a final agreement is reached
🇺🇸🇮🇷‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️
2026-06-17 18:21:23
i will back a dispute of troop withdrawal should someone try to propose YES. Praise be to Allah!!!
2026-06-17 18:24:34
troop withdrawal is totally conditional on a distinct final deal being reached. The rules stress "definitive" which is defined as: "Something that is firm, final, and complete"
the ending of sanctions is definitive because it is agreed on "upon the signing of the MOU" which both parties have signed
2026-06-17 18:50:58
i dont think agreements conditional on a distinct final deal being signed should count because: "Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify."
its alot like a negotiation to say "if you do x, which you have yet to agree to, we will do y"
2026-06-17 18:59:10
I would just say the final deal is necessarily not something they can commit to. So saying troop withdrawal comes after the final deal is saying it’s conditional on a final deal being reached
2026-06-17 20:05:57
Praise be to allah!! The troops shall remain
2026-06-18 06:03:35
"The U.S. military will maintain its current force posture in the Middle East during the 60-day negotiation period with Iran, according to senior Trump administration officials.
“We hope to draw them down, but we’re not doing that yet,” a senior administration official told reporters during a phone briefing on Monday.
“We want to see again the Iranians do what they promise they’re going to tell us that they’re going to do, and the agreement contemplates the reduction of military forces in the region upon the agreement of a final deal, which again is the agreement that we assume we can make, so long as the Iranians make some concessions and give up some of their activities and some of their nuclear program,” the official said. "
2026-06-25 22:28:01
when are they releasing this thing
2026-06-27 06:09:08
All the meetings have been 21 or fewer day intervals between them so I feel like 17th makes sense
2026-06-30 17:49:12
thank you NPR for giving me new high volume trading opportunities
2026-07-01 18:10:47
of course it counts
2026-07-01 18:24:00
fuck you got me
2026-07-01 19:29:12
"he has no f-ing judgement" is a general insult, even if triggered by a policy dispute (what else would it be triggered by?)
It is distinct from " he has no judgment, when it comes to X, y, z" and if you look at the grammar of trumps statement it is a general insult, he is expressing that he feels netanyahu in general has no judgment
2026-07-01 21:10:32
if you lost it doesnt mean you are dumb
2026-07-02 06:17:55
she is very inspirational i hope she returns one day
2026-07-13 22:42:57
they havent done it yet during this war so
2026-07-14 20:07:32
in spirit the criteria has been met, the war is basically restarting, the MOU is dead!
The criteria is indecipherable I'm not sure any combination of statements could satisfy it. Overall, however, i think polymarket will defer to the reporting, which will surely acknowledge the reality, (that the MOU is dead)
2026-07-15 20:34:29
meet
2026-07-15 20:39:05
they met on july 11 with cubas president and foreign ministers
2026-07-17 09:40:15
Woah what happened
2026-07-17 09:47:51
I was on the boat it wasn’t Houthis
2026-07-24 20:14:42
Houthis saying it was Saudi, but could be Yemen government, we need statements from saudi themselves
2026-07-24 20:39:14
"The Houthis says Saudi Arabia carried out a series of airstrikes targeting telecommunications sites in Hodeidah and Kamaran Island. Saudi media says Hodeidah port was not targeted."
2026-07-24 21:29:31
saudi took part its saudis coalition their MOD poste
2026-07-29 02:00:43
trump is too scared but if Iran keeps doing it hell have to respond
2026-07-29 02:00:50
he will do a delicate little love tap
2026-07-30 01:23:42
What the heck happened here
2026-07-30 01:23:57
This is a rogues gallery
2026-07-30 21:28:09
I can see the argument for NO: right after calling him "difficult" (in the context of negotiations which "are going well") trump also says that for both leaders "there is a lot of commitment, and a lot of love of the countries"
it seems "difficult" is a deliberately soft and not insult-y way of expressing that both leaders are firm in their demands and values and thus making a deal is not easy
2026-08-01 08:14:24
I dont think he was clearly insulting macron
2026-08-05 16:32:23
Trump is so eager to lift
2026-08-06 07:13:52
He will do it to distract from Epstein files
2026-08-09 19:49:10
Truly hopeless
2026-08-14 20:19:47
no
2026-08-16 05:49:11
It’s a yes cause they are no longer negotiating towards a final deal and the MOU is dead
2026-08-16 19:55:44
I think this should resolve yes