Account Information
Name:
aenews2
Bio:
I still got the sauce 🍅
Pseudonym:
Sociable-Rooster
Created:
2024-01-13 23:31:49
Last Activity:
5 hours ago
Tier:
Silver
X:
@aenews
profile-image-154436-a84dabd0-06ee-40d3-be95-e454283cdfc0.jpg
Total Profit
$2,184,598
Blockchain trace (7)
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1 📤 seed aenews2 |
seed, sender, user | Polygon | USDC.e | $712,356.95 | 19 |
| 0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02 seed aenews2 |
seed | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0xba2cb3168709dc3880243586448d6d67afc2bf17 📤 0xba2cb3168709dc3880243586448d6d67afc2bf17 |
recipient | Polygon | USDC | $550,053.41 | 10 |
| 0xd49cf4c06e148b1c9f2bcebe72f36b3e52e17353 📤 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | $149,971.81 | 4 |
| 0x4c707bf3c3a79e465e90e37788a2247372ad1bcf 📤 pf-meep |
recipient | Polygon | USDC | $6,997.89 | 1 |
| 0x1de1916966d1eb91c8084f8a802e7bc9f185aebe 📤 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | $5,298.59 | 3 |
| 0x5c8947bdee3a94aec195f20d6b5a4220d17d6db7 📤 | recipient | Polygon | USDC | $31.49 | 1 |
Stats
Portfolio value
$307,522.39
Markets traded
3,146
Trades
3,064
Largest win
$12,093,351.60
Profile views
299,496
Join date
2024-01-13 23:31:49
All-time rank
71
All-time PnL
$2,184,597.95
All-time volume
$251,362,106.84
All-time profit
$2,230,062.50
Lifetime volume
$248,738,334.63
PnL series latest
$2,230,397.00
PnL series start
$2,220,384.80
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$61,201.88
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Yes | 12485904.192856 | $12,093,351.60 |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 600344.155222 | $413,649.09 |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 500000 | $333,333.50 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Yes | 11713133.199999997 | $-5,852,879.93 |
| Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Yes | 12439429.242856 | $-346,274.54 |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Yes | 12439429.242856 | $-346,274.54 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | Yes | 73636.09 | $0.76 | $1.00 | $73,599.27 | $17,399.97 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | No | 64670.54 | $0.47 | $1.00 | $64,638.20 | $33,958.95 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 61306.9164 | $0.47 | $0.53 | $32,186.13 | $3,614.41 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 85315.3317 | $0.22 | $0.23 | $20,049.10 | $1,116.61 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 20486.524 | $0.59 | $0.71 | $14,647.86 | $2,538.21 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Yes | 12485904.192856 | $12,093,351.60 |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 600344.155222 | $413,649.09 |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 500000 | $333,333.50 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | No | 612151.867 | $305,100.63 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 2343793.899264 | $297,572.34 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 20.833332 | $10.83 |
| 5 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 208.333332 | $108.33 |
| 5 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 31.25 | $16.25 |
| 5 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 242.57 | $126.14 |
| 5 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 38.09 | $19.81 |
Recent trades (3064)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 hours ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 20.833332 |
| 5 hours ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 208.333332 |
| 5 hours ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 31.25 |
| 5 hours ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 242.57 |
| 5 hours ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $0.52 | 38.09 |
Comments
2024-01-31 07:28:39
Yes, the ISW control map (as of the past week) shows >50% control for Israel. So does warmapper.
2024-01-31 18:38:30
Even if it were true (and I don't agree), has no bearing on market resolution because Hamas has already lost control. Seems fair chance they gain it back next month.
2024-01-31 18:42:14
But not the majority of military control. Realistically, not half of of the political control either. It has power and influence, but hostage negotiations don't establish predominant control. The civilians has largely evacuated according to Israeli commands (and ignored Hamas commands to stay) and are located largely in refugee camps and with aid from UNRWA.
2024-01-31 18:44:53
Evidence from after proposal time isn't admissible in court, and the article is not saying what you think it means in the first place.
2024-02-01 00:03:54
It now controls less than 50% of the Gaza Strip
2024-02-01 06:19:27
He disputed
2024-02-01 21:59:44
Hamas rules over Gaza from the tunnels and from their luxury apartments in Qatar.
2024-02-24 07:25:31
🙏
2024-02-25 03:16:34
"With 84% of votes in, we’ve stopped updating our estimates. We don’t expect the final margin to change much once all votes are in..."
2024-02-25 03:16:52
Looks like we'll have to be our own needle now
2024-02-26 00:56:00
It will resolve in another 24 hours
2024-02-26 00:56:17
Need to wait for the UMA dispute to settle
2024-02-26 15:19:50
Can't be resolved yet, as there are still absentee ballots that will be added to the total. Plus some minor corrections or wayward votes.
2024-03-02 08:41:16
[link removed]
2024-03-03 20:53:15
Yeah, they fixed that an hour after the initial post. Doesn't change the fact that the signed bill has now been sent to the office of the President. Either Laszlo signs it as the interim President, or Sulyok will sign it after he becomes President on the 5th.
2024-03-07 23:38:55
Gotta wait a week, broski
2024-03-09 09:22:18
From the rules: "If the US federal government goes unfunded for any period of time before a new budget/stopgap can be signed into law, it will be considered a government shutdown."
2024-03-09 09:22:59
Hence, Polymarket issued a clarification that re-iterates the rules as stated.
2024-03-10 01:56:51
Well you can probably ignore the noise for this one as it isn't contentious. Polymarket issued a clarification, and market will resolve that way.
2024-03-10 03:24:16
@KeyLockey The clarification is straightforward and just re-iterates the original rules which specifically state signing being required. Also, most whales acquired Y post-clarification.
2024-03-10 03:26:56
Well there is undeniable proof that the bill wasn't signed until today, so there isn't really an issue. UMA staff shouldn't have disputed after Polymarket's clarification. But it won't change the result. If UMA wasn't part of the equation, Polymarket simply would have resolved to YES by this time.
2024-03-10 06:41:15
Polymarket already stated the market should resolve Yes. If it resolved No, then they lied. How would any customers possibly trust the platform if that happens?
2024-03-10 06:43:04
It's very common and typical for prediction markets to revolve around the signing time since this is a completely unambiguous step in the process. I remember with the bipartisan infrastructure bill markets, one trader lost 100K because Biden delayed signing for a few days.
2024-03-10 10:32:24
Correct. The clarification simply re-iterated the rules, which say that a lack of signing means shutdown.
2024-03-10 11:52:15
Lol what?
2024-03-10 11:53:49
Not sure what you mean. Whether the signing is delayed by an hour or a day or a week makes no difference. Market is regarding signing, and the rules are pretty standard.
2024-03-10 11:55:00
Disagree. The community note simply reiterates the rules.
2024-03-10 20:00:32
It literally re-iterates the rules. Re-iterate means it says the rules again.
2024-03-10 20:01:05
Incorrect. Market was already at 70c before the clarification.
2024-03-10 20:19:52
Yeah, I agree
2024-03-11 01:54:28
Woah and they're deciding to follow what Polymarket said it should resolve!
2024-03-11 01:57:54
Biden didn't sign the bill fast enough because it was past his bedtime.
2024-03-11 03:06:02
21 hours until the market resolves
2024-03-11 08:35:53
Ah I see what you mean
2024-03-11 19:58:33
What happened is they resolved how they said they would.
2024-03-11 20:02:02
Nope, clarification re-iterated the rules. Also, when the market was being created they even asked traders for feedback and ended up going with the signature requirement since least ambiguous, most concrete step in the process.
2024-03-11 23:13:32
Again, Nikitis. From the very beginning, Polymarket designed the market to require the signature. They did so after asking traders for feedback. Also, government sources would indicate funding lapsed at midnight. You're confusing the WH halting shutdown procedures with funding lapsing. [link removed]
2024-03-15 10:38:14
Keep breathing the Aaron Rodgers hopium, lads
2024-03-26 00:48:04
It will resolve to No
2024-04-01 18:19:28
Gg thanks for playing
2024-04-10 20:33:53
As I learned in the last market, Yes is a bond
2024-04-12 21:48:58
Garvey bros RISE
2024-04-16 23:59:28
The numbers haven't changed at all since Sunday morning / afternoon when they posted estimates. Looks like the studio correctly predicted the amount to the last dollar!
2024-04-17 19:52:17
Not a perfect arb, but revisions are only going to affect by +/- 0.01
2024-04-19 23:58:59
Brrr is it getting cold yet, guys?
2024-04-21 03:30:07
dont make me smack you
2024-04-21 23:45:59
congrats relay, I think fabi will make it
2024-04-23 09:29:45
Comments seem really quiet this month, what happened guys?
2024-04-23 20:41:53
Feel free to DM on Discord (@aenews) or Twitter (@aenews_PI).
2024-04-23 20:42:32
lolz
2024-04-25 05:08:49
im bored, guys pls talk to me
2024-04-27 06:39:41
I have Y shares, so it'll be the hottest
2024-04-30 05:34:20
Anyone wanna side bet this month? Hit me up on Discord (@aenews) if you want to discuss specific lines not already on the books.
2024-04-30 23:36:17
It's alright. She hated the puppy and thought it was "less than worthless".
2024-05-03 11:17:29
There will be a vote on UMA to determine the winner.
2024-05-03 18:03:28
Yes that's right. Polymarket missed a clarification, however. Market will definitely resolve No.
2024-05-04 07:09:40
People seem pretty confident where the final value will land, shall see
2024-05-04 21:33:38
Yep, that's right.
2024-05-04 21:34:14
Fully agree with this
2024-05-06 19:57:39
What are you guys even doing? Jeez
2024-05-06 20:08:07
Shit wrong bracket
2024-05-06 22:09:13
Alright, now that I evened out my exposure, can someone explain what happened? My estimate based on ERA5 is 128 +/- 6.
2024-05-07 00:07:14
Well that was admittedly embarrassing. Bonded the wrong side after I woke up from a nap. It's alright tho, making it mostly back by bonding the right way this time.
2024-05-07 01:45:04
I don't mind explaining in DM. @aenews on Discord or @aenews_PI on Twitter.
2024-05-07 09:37:08
Welp, there goes the liquidity
2024-05-08 02:39:44
Looks like the NASA insiders finally blasted the market. Damn you Dr. Sato!
2024-05-08 02:55:46
Someone took it to 90c. Unknown whether they have an edge or are just dumb.
2024-05-08 07:54:32
Because I got filled at 10c, so 80c is profitable. I still have more 126-131 shares than I do 132+
2024-05-08 07:55:45
That was an estimate using only ERA5, and a day old. Using more data, median should be higher now with lower uncertainty. Not 90c tho, not sure why folks are that confident.
2024-05-08 07:58:20
Might be like me last month when I lost 20K.
2024-05-08 08:05:56
On or before May 14 according to GISTEMP's website.
2024-05-08 09:45:09
There is no insider trading, just people confident about their data analysis. Overconfident I'd say, at these prices. We'll probably land right over the mark.
2024-05-08 11:37:18
It's very clear these are not new traders. They are alt accounts.
2024-05-08 11:38:48
Their buys don't make sense to me either, but I'd chalk that up to overconfidence in their data processing. I can understand maybe 80%, but 92% is crazy sauce.
2024-05-08 19:29:25
Not funny, broski. Some people have their life savings in this market.
2024-05-08 23:10:11
decap is a masochist
2024-05-09 00:22:29
Doesn't seem the "insiders" want to buy any more shares, ah well
2024-05-09 03:01:50
Yes they just joined and seem obscured, so probably alts. Could be new traders, but either way, they aren't insiders.
2024-05-09 10:14:38
While we're waiting for the drop, what's everyone's guess for the anomaly? I'll go with 132.
2024-05-10 21:21:59
Back to another month of predicting how much the Earth will burn 🔥
2024-05-11 09:11:23
We already knew he had works for brains, not a big deal that it's now known to be literal
2024-05-13 03:47:08
It's 🔥🔥🔥
2024-05-14 02:00:34
Yep
2024-05-17 06:21:14
Hope you guys are ready for the posting frenzy in the AM
2024-05-17 06:21:26
hope this ages well
2024-05-17 12:36:34
R.I.P.
2024-05-17 21:24:57
Throw us a bone and do $0.11
2024-05-17 21:58:48
holy shit
2024-05-18 09:27:12
Looks like the crazy sauce degens are finally out of money, whew
2024-05-18 19:58:34
Have you traded on Polymarket before, or is this your first rodeo 🐂
2024-05-19 05:34:16
I see
2024-05-19 21:08:38
Yep, the kitty deniers are out of cash. They already broke all their piggy 🐷 banks.
2024-05-20 01:47:31
We're back, baby. Well if you're right, anyways.
2024-05-20 01:47:44
Link?
2024-05-20 02:59:58
All I see is your bags burning!
2024-05-20 04:58:39
Terrible interpretation, and Polymarket will not rule that way.
2024-05-20 06:35:58
Let the great dump begin, let's take this to 99.9 bois
2024-05-20 19:54:35
good luck with your endeavors
2024-05-21 08:31:22
Well my private key has been leaked for a few years, so thought it would be a good idea to switch to a new account for 2024. Had been lazy and trusted no one would drain me.
2024-05-21 22:38:33
Hence this market should resolve to “Yes.” But we'll have to wait 26 hours for vote reveal on UMA go conclude the formal process.
2024-05-22 11:17:20
The tweet suggests it'll resolve to Yes. Of course, the account is run for memes, so I wouldn't take it too seriously.
2024-05-22 11:18:48
Is this a copy pasta?
2024-05-22 21:39:05
Anywhere else I'd be up 10K
2024-05-23 08:00:09
4PM ET maybe
2024-05-23 10:45:12
And only the approval for trading is necessary for this market, not the approval to list.
2024-05-23 11:51:29
Because the ETF will be approved today by the SEC
2024-05-23 19:39:46
Looks like market has been proposed to Yes on UMA
2024-05-23 20:00:54
The fortunate side to Team Yes is that even if they lose the dispute, Haley can still say more things by June
2024-05-23 22:30:03
Welp, just 30 Minutes until Y goes to 99.9c
2024-05-23 22:53:45
Last chance to buy some N lottos, guys
2024-05-23 23:30:51
Too late, already resolved
2024-05-24 00:03:32
No, do not dispute. There is no point in doing so as the June 30 and December 31 markets have already resolved to Yes. It is impossible to resolve this market to anything else.
2024-05-24 10:41:47
[link removed]
2024-05-24 10:42:08
Exclusive: Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines, Russian sources told @Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond
2024-05-25 23:22:01
It's not that complicated. Haley endorsed Trump.
2024-05-26 05:44:37
@relay bruh I was reacting to news alerts, if you understand the situation better than a noob like me good for you
2024-05-26 13:20:08
Lmfao
2024-05-27 00:53:50
yes
2024-05-27 02:33:56
Why are people buying Y?
2024-05-27 11:10:36
Come on guys, are you Y folks really gonna let us win? If we take this to 99, it's OVER.
2024-05-27 11:12:28
Also, would you fine gentlepeoples be interested in a SEC Sue Jenner market? I hope to take your... see you guys in that one too!
2024-05-27 11:13:48
this man speaks the truth
2024-05-27 12:10:37
Have 55K in this market, hope you're wrong 😥
2024-05-27 21:26:25
YES HACK folks may notice there is a nice juicy block for you to smack and get a 20X return!
2024-05-27 21:35:34
alright, I wanna dump my shares
2024-05-27 21:56:47
Nearly 100K shares to be bought now at 5-6c!
2024-05-27 23:55:04
Alright guys, can you please pretty please take this to 90c one last time, for old time's sake? You'll never win if you let this go to 99.
2024-05-28 03:07:24
[link removed]
2024-05-28 03:07:49
"FUCK SAHIL! He scammed us! BIG TIME!"
2024-05-28 03:23:54
Smh, just dumb crypto degens
2024-05-28 06:54:00
Can the Yes chads do me a solid and fill my block? Please and thank you =)
2024-05-28 11:05:38
[link removed]
2024-05-28 11:07:15
Interesting read
2024-05-28 18:23:27
[link removed]
2024-05-28 23:13:34
"We're going to limit what we say about that shady son of a bitch... all the coins that have been sold, were by that shady son of a bitch"
2024-05-28 23:58:55
"I want to make it very clear to you on the record. Obviously there were no deep fake videos... one had a filter. Only two devices connected to the account. That is something we really wanted to clear up."
2024-05-29 01:05:21
Hey can you Y holders dump your worthless shares already? I've got better things to do...
2024-05-29 01:34:38
She said she wouldn't sell any coins and then dumped six figures, after calling out Sahil for doing the same. Might be a hack, tbh ✌
2024-05-30 08:52:30
Some people wanted to dispute it because they think it could be a deep fake. So we're waiting until the dispute ends.
2024-06-01 20:59:23
Left up a 11K bid for you to dump your shares
2024-06-01 21:04:04
Interesting. My estimate is 124 +/- 7. But I guess I could be missing something.
2024-06-01 22:45:36
I just bought at 53c, I'm trying to buy more shares there. Well, I could settle at 9c for 1.10-1.16.
2024-06-02 20:49:36
Doesn't seem right that 1.10-1.16 is so high. I guess I'd consider 15c sell out just to cover my bases. ERA5 is at 121, and I expect that GISS will be higher just like with April.
2024-06-02 21:04:09
ERA5: 121 If the trends hold from last month, we'd expect GISS to be a bit higher. That puts my median at 124.
2024-06-02 22:39:36
Welp people keep bidding higher, so 20c it is! That should be pretty reasonable given current data.
2024-06-02 22:56:02
naw bro me and scottie will be laughing to the bank!
2024-06-03 01:09:04
Televisa Projects Claudia Sheinbaum to Win Mexico Election; El Financiero Projects Sheinbaum To Win Mexico Election
2024-06-03 01:50:17
[link removed]
2024-06-03 01:50:33
"Enkoll’s exit poll shows Claudia Sheinbaum leading with over 50% of votes." - Bloomberg
2024-06-03 02:32:32
When will the Galvez tards dump all their bags?
2024-06-03 05:23:02
@Kapii fill me, dog I want to even out my exposure
2024-06-03 07:53:42
I already have, it's the bracket where I own the most shares. ERA5 (Final) is at 121 (15.914°). My assumption since the start has been that GISS should outpace ERA5, similar to last month. Historial and month-over-month trends would suggest around 3 higher. The reason I want to even out my exposure is because one of the other guys is bidding up high and that does concern me. We'll see who is correct in the next few days, I guess.
2024-06-03 23:19:10
You're asking Dr. Sato herself
2024-06-05 02:33:18
That's @drhorrible
2024-06-05 20:59:28
Shall see
2024-06-05 22:43:35
the insiders should invite me because i've been losing 10's of K
2024-06-06 01:16:48
Alright, you lucky N bag holders. I need to dump and move onto new markets. So it's your lucky day, limited time offer to exit
2024-06-06 05:17:23
Ah good point, cancelled my sells!
2024-06-06 05:17:40
No thanks, I'm done for now. Have enough free cash.
2024-06-06 21:03:00
I brought my sells back up! Having another fire sale to free cash
2024-06-07 00:13:42
Good luck to all with the new month!
2024-06-07 07:21:14
Good idea, he took it!
2024-06-08 19:27:38
Pretty sure the guy explained he reverse engineered it. Seems about right, wish I knew about this in March when I lost 20K R.I.P.
2024-06-10 06:36:27
Can you buy more? I wanna short too
2024-06-10 15:12:15
NOAA and NASA temperature markets have been around for a very long time both on Polymarket and on other prediction markets (and both NOAA/NASA use the same underlying GHCNv4 and ERSSTv5 data). Never really been an issue. Besides, the code in question is linked on the GISTEMP homepage. Also take in mind that I've LP'd these markets and actually taken an L these past few months. I certainly would have benefited from using ERA5 instead of GISTEMP. Despite that, I do honestly think GISTEMP is the more fun option because it can cuck even sharps like me =P
2024-06-10 15:14:05
And furthermore, even reverse engineering or similar is imperfect and leaves a +/- 2 MoE. Does not even kill these brackets. If the value was known more precisely, then the "winning" bracket would not be at only 90c.
2024-06-10 23:57:06
Ok Dr. Sato 😐
2024-06-13 19:34:30
gg
2024-06-13 21:48:25
buy more N
2024-06-13 22:13:53
No? The outcome is pretty uncertain. We are halfway with a day and 6 hours to go.
2024-06-14 02:10:24
Brokie is going BROKE 😳
2024-06-14 05:02:21
Another month, another bond
2024-06-14 07:47:08
Another month, another month for me to donate to people. Congrats on last month, you did well Kapii.
2024-06-14 17:43:57
We'll see
2024-06-14 22:45:01
FIRE SALE: Need some more monies so I'm selling dollars for 99.7c
2024-06-19 08:20:52
It's not over yet!
2024-06-19 12:11:46
Until it doesn't work. Sometimes, the fish win and beat all the sharps. Happened in Garvey, sharps lost 100K and the fish made it.
2024-06-19 12:12:40
Looks like the Y folks don't have enough faith, can't even keep Yes above 10¢ lmao
2024-06-19 12:13:45
Meanwhile this $DJT fake coin is going straight to 0
2024-06-19 12:49:02
Yep, sadly for me
2024-06-19 20:41:28
Martin said it was a pleasure working with Barron Trump, send this back to 50/50
2024-06-20 06:00:42
No
2024-06-20 06:01:06
Only if with T's consent
2024-06-20 17:23:34
Evidence that is definitive, not that complicated
2024-06-20 18:12:56
Clearly, the LayerZero market should resolve to Yes.
2024-06-20 21:37:23
Alright, show's over guys. Time for the Y folks to dump their bags before this goes to zero tomorrow.
2024-06-21 00:59:00
The new market has a different resolution mechanism. It'll be decided by UMA and not Polymarket clarification: https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt
2024-06-21 00:59:23
And also only requires Barron and not Trump's consent
2024-06-21 02:08:38
@aeon69 The rules for the market
2024-06-21 20:55:20
lol
2024-06-21 22:37:07
Where are scottylicious and therealbatman when you need them?
2024-06-22 03:39:10
I'm officially Team Yes!
2024-06-22 04:36:03
Last chance for the Y bag holders to dispute, or else market will resolve to N in 85 minutes. You will lose though, if you do. Fair warning.
2024-06-22 05:16:20
You need USDC.e on Polygon. You can also withdraw funds from Polymarket to your wallet and that will work. Just hit the USDC.e.
2024-06-22 20:36:46
Free Money 💰
2024-06-22 20:53:28
No, there's no evidence (excluding Martin and his screenshots). Some high confidence assertions, but that's it. Mike Solana said he wouldn't release any evidence at this time, but may in the future if the situation changes.
2024-06-22 21:44:21
I'm swing trading. No, I don't think so.
2024-06-22 23:40:37
Yes
2024-06-23 00:15:47
It's free money for N
2024-06-23 07:05:30
It's resolving N
2024-06-23 10:21:42
It'll be an interesting dispute, but would be pretty surprised if it doesn't resolve N. Doesn't seem we'll be getting any more evidence in the next 5 hours.
2024-06-23 11:31:11
You may want to post on UMA later today, since they decide resolution.
2024-06-23 15:58:33
Are you on Discord?
2024-06-23 17:29:37
Yeah that is not a thorough search. But it's also true and telling that no reputable news outlet has claimed that Barron was involved with $DJT. At best, there is some speculation but no evidence.
2024-06-23 17:44:17
Only Mike is claiming involvement and has not provided any evidence or rationale. He said he may in the future if the situation changes, but that's beyond the timeframe of this market.
2024-06-23 17:48:28
@truthteller It's not that he did no post sources. He did not provide any of the evidence and specifically said he would not release said evidence for now.
2024-06-23 17:50:25
@bwt06 That is an assertion, not evidence. Even with the lower bar used in civil court, Mike's statements would not be remotely sufficient.
2024-06-23 17:58:42
Preponderance of evidence is the standard used in civil court. I'm saying that even with that lower bar, a witness who does not provide evidence orationale, and says he is withholding that information, won't be taken seriously. What he provided is merely an assertion.
2024-06-23 18:28:44
Because preponderance of evidence (more likely than not) is the bar used in civil court? I'm saying it is a lower bar used in civil court, and this would not go far as evidence even with that low bar.
2024-06-23 21:07:55
And the other Barron market (with a lower bar of preponderance of evidence) has already been proposed and disputed. Voting for that and DJT real will commence in 3 hours. I would guess this one would also be disputed, based on the other two markets. But shall see.
2024-06-24 04:30:20
I proposed N. They can still dispute if they want, though they will lose if they do.
2024-06-24 21:07:28
It's the balls of one guy, basically.
2024-06-25 17:51:19
Need to wait about 7 hours
2024-06-25 19:31:51
@SerSwallowtail When a dispute happens, it goes to a vote in UMA. Correct, anyone with staked $UMA can vote. So it is not simple majority of voting UMA but rather must be the higher threshold of majority of staked $UMA. Since not everyone votes in every vote, these days, that works out to about a supermajority. 7 hours because the vote reveal period ends at 0 UTC / 8PM ET. Then market will resolve to N shortly afterwards.
2024-06-25 19:35:02
Yes, it's over. Same for the other Barron involvement market.
2024-06-25 23:08:48
Bro Biden is unstoppable, can't wait for MAGA to get rekt!
2024-06-29 21:11:08
The N proposals were disputed, and it'll be put up to a vote starting in a couple hours.
2024-06-29 22:32:32
Get involved and fulfill your constitutional right as a Polymarket citizen
2024-06-30 02:37:01
Biden crashed again, and drop out went to 50c. Very much doubt this market resolves to N at this point...
2024-06-30 02:57:31
He may drop out because he was arguably senile in the debate
2024-06-30 03:11:03
Not really. If you asked anyone how bad a debate night it would have to be for Biden to drop out, they'd have said he would need to be senile.
2024-06-30 03:41:45
Because I think it is most likely P3. We'll see tomorrow when votes are revealed, but implied odds here should be a bit lower than 50% IMO.
2024-06-30 03:47:51
You may suffer from an inability to do basic math and statistics. I think P3 is the likely answer, but P1 is more likely than P2. This brings the EV below 50%.
2024-06-30 21:32:38
Well, it's been interesting but soon it'll be time to bid this market farewell. Hope to see everyone in the next senile market, or similar.
2024-06-30 23:42:44
Alright, guys. Soon it'll be the moment of truth...
2024-07-01 00:16:50
Hold strong, don't let N winning with 0.1% of the vote in sway you
2024-07-01 00:43:34
im shaking
2024-07-01 00:53:38
to what side
2024-07-01 01:32:39
Lol the largest whale voted Yes, not even P3. We'll see what happens, will be interesting.
2024-07-01 01:39:10
4.15M Y / 1.00M 50 50 / 0.22M N
2024-07-01 02:40:36
Market won't be resolving N
2024-07-01 02:41:31
Sorry Susan, I apologize. I will attempt to maintain compliance with the HR standards into the future.
2024-07-01 03:17:08
Because no one is voting N, so it can't win
2024-07-01 04:46:42
I assume because Y is currently leading the vote and N is completely shot.
2024-07-01 05:36:38
Yeah... No one is even voting for P1
2024-07-01 11:21:19
Looks like it'll take another 61 hours to resolve
2024-07-01 12:53:33
@JustAcar Because the vote rolled due to lack of quorum. So it'll get a re-vote.
2024-07-01 21:00:06
[link removed]
2024-07-01 21:01:47
[link removed]
2024-07-01 21:02:05
DEMOCRATS WEIGH EARLY BIDEN NOMINATION TO SQUASH TALK OF A SWAP JULY 21 MEETING OFFERS POTENTIAL DATE FOR PARTY TO TAP BIDEN
2024-07-01 22:32:43
Yes, well needs to meet quorum so effectively closer to a super-majority in practice because not everyone votes every round.
2024-07-02 10:08:39
You'll need to wait 38 hours, or sell out.
2024-07-03 05:10:27
Thanks for the good laugh, chief
2024-07-03 06:49:17
Actually the request data for the market (and all other non-negrisk markets) include P3 (50/50) as an option.
2024-07-03 07:58:48
BIG MIKE BIG MIKE BIG MIKE
2024-07-03 11:08:29
You can sell your shares at 50c for the same amount you'd get if you waited.
2024-07-03 17:10:59
Is it time to hold strong or dump hard, brothers?
2024-07-03 17:23:15
Thanks for the shit advice
2024-07-08 07:36:59
Sorry, been preoccupied with tracking politics this past month and especially past two weeks
2024-07-10 04:27:47
i want moar harris, gimme
2024-07-14 01:18:38
Yeah
2024-07-17 07:10:58
Maybe if you have nothing to lose, and this is your possibly only shot to be relevant *cough* Harris
2024-07-19 03:05:17
It was over the second you bought!
2024-07-19 03:05:31
Oops I have N now
2024-07-19 20:44:23
0% chance but alright
2024-07-19 21:44:47
neg risk conversion. Also, I sold the Biden. I re-bought at 8c.
2024-07-20 10:53:00
Hey! I never said that. I will sue for defamation.
2024-07-22 08:48:23
Will have to wait almost 4 days for resolution because there was a dispute
2024-07-22 09:32:53
UMA staff disputed, for some reason.
2024-07-22 11:41:06
Gg
2024-07-22 11:49:39
In the span of a few hours Manchin went from saying folks were pushing him to run, to saying naw I'm not running. Cool.
2024-07-22 12:25:24
But if she ran, would she win the nomination?
2024-07-23 06:03:16
It'll go to vote tomorrow. Will take several days to resolve since UMA staff determined it should be disputed.
2024-07-23 06:04:02
Buy low, sell high. Won't resolve for days, so might as well.
2024-07-24 02:51:06
Let's see if bot deletions or 30M happen first
2024-07-24 05:00:13
Someone bought views
2024-07-24 22:43:29
Thanks!
2024-07-25 05:25:04
No, as virtual roll call will start on August 1 and be finalized on August 7.
2024-07-25 08:49:03
Lol I also joked about this with someone
2024-07-25 22:51:22
Might legit be gg, ngl
2024-07-26 09:32:17
Your GOD BIG MIKE JUST ENDORSED 😆😂🤣
2024-07-26 10:12:29
so true!
2024-07-26 10:12:46
say it with me... BIG MIKE BIG MIKE!
2024-07-26 10:18:05
Same reason the sky is blue
2024-07-26 10:26:20
oh my sweet summer child
2024-07-26 20:44:35
It'll be sad when it's exactly 119 and the N's win
2024-07-26 21:29:26
Oh shit yeah, temps are like 0.55° colder this year...
2024-07-26 23:25:24
I dunno. I feel his odds are closer to 10c.
2024-07-27 00:31:14
It'll be over 200M lol
2024-07-27 00:32:48
If it's 199 they are so gonna have to round that up!
2024-07-27 07:00:52
Not that it matters much but AZ is next to a battleground state
2024-07-27 17:05:09
[link removed]
2024-07-27 18:07:45
"Shapiro's chief of staff sexually harassed an employee, and Shapiro paid her off with taxpayer dollars." Would be the attack line from GOP... Do we think it's easy to counter that? Personally, I think vetting will flag it, and it'll be an issue.
2024-07-27 18:35:06
Damn, maybe I shouldn't have bought 30K N shares based on that
2024-07-27 18:38:48
Admittedly, that may be correct
2024-07-27 19:38:41
[link removed]
2024-07-27 19:47:42
LATEST: Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally in Portland, Maine, on Saturday. - ABC [link removed] Rules do say "formal" endorsement. Obviously this is a big step up from prior statements though, and is an endorsement. Bernie probably is getting closer to a formal endorsement.
2024-07-27 22:45:11
Bruh I'm agreeing with you and saying it's not formal (yet)
2024-07-28 08:15:07
You're double counting as air is both land and sea... Actually, ERA5 will be maybe 0.05 colder than 2023. On vacation rn, so haven't been tracking as closely.
2024-07-28 22:20:19
Yep
2024-07-29 02:23:20
Gg
2024-07-29 04:37:49
dw it'll be even higher once the final numbahs are in
2024-07-29 15:59:45
Thanks!
2024-07-29 16:04:48
Boom yeah 211M
2024-07-30 03:05:52
Indian and Black woman with Jewish husband, with a gay running mate. Gotta tick all the boxes!
2024-07-30 07:41:52
You lost money on No, lost money on Yes, and now you'll lose money on N again. IMO. Good luck, tho
2024-07-30 08:32:36
Rethuglicans win again
2024-07-30 08:33:36
Dunno. No one disputed, so it's done anyways.
2024-07-30 08:35:53
Resolved to 0/100 actually, gg
2024-07-30 08:36:25
Naw, should resolve Republican. And it did.
2024-07-30 08:42:47
People closely tracking data can strike whenever. We can also be massively wrong, like when I donated 20K in March.
2024-07-30 10:10:48
@Grothendieck Just makes sense to buy the cheaper shares, my reasoning is similar to when I lost in March tbh. Shall see if it works this time.
2024-07-30 10:12:36
@temporaryname I bet it wouldn't be hottest. Indeed, it was super close. NOAA and Berkeley Earth were even closer (0.01°). Anyways, I lost 20K that time. Embarrassing loss, but I will make it all back this month! Maybe?
2024-07-30 10:13:04
Thanks Susan
2024-07-30 10:15:13
I mean. You would have probably lost even if this went to UMA court or if Polymarket clarified. I really doubt they'd have ruled your way.
2024-07-30 16:29:25
No one is obliged to share their methodology for data tracking and analysis. A lot of folks here put hard work into developing them. Of course, no matter how good your model, you can still be wrong.
2024-07-31 07:34:17
This is just sad to see, why are people still buying?
2024-07-31 07:35:34
Yes is the reliable and predictable determination, in line with past resolutions. Every platform will have a resolving style and preferred ways of interpreting rules.
2024-07-31 08:56:01
With my luck, I may lose 40K on Shapiro N this month and this bet too!
2024-07-31 10:01:27
I dunno, bro. Just hoping I win at least one of these bets.
2024-07-31 20:28:24
God my PV has gone down 20K in last 48 hours. Really hope I win this bet and take the edge off my Shapiro N shares...
2024-07-31 22:40:49
Ur right, I will bet more on this cause im not losing both 🙏
2024-07-31 23:26:29
Thanks!
2024-07-31 23:29:01
Hope that vetting tosses out Shapiro like they did Kelly. The sexual harassment incident, mark my words, will be an issue in the general if it doesn't prevent him from getting VP.
2024-08-01 00:30:15
Ty
2024-08-01 01:39:13
[link removed]
2024-08-01 01:52:33
Does this mean definitely the VP or definitely not the VP?
2024-08-01 02:04:21
Agreed. Oops I guess I was dumb selling earlier.
2024-08-01 02:04:49
Rlly? Why
2024-08-01 02:08:01
Hope it's Beshear cause I lose the least money, err make the most
2024-08-01 03:31:10
[link removed].gov/gistemp/release_[link removed]
2024-08-01 03:44:21
Sometimes you just gotta go big and hope your model is better
2024-08-01 07:57:37
Yeah this is what Ive been saying
2024-08-01 08:12:13
Well you might be right. Probably will pull most of my orders in a couple hours.
2024-08-01 08:37:18
Np
2024-08-01 16:47:42
If any Y holders are feeling weak in the knees, I'd cash you out 55K shares at 53c Y (47c N).
2024-08-01 16:55:49
I'm negotiating. If anyone agrees, I'd put up a huge wall on the book.
2024-08-01 17:24:15
[link removed]
2024-08-01 17:27:55
I mean, this is why I bought 55K shares N
2024-08-01 18:46:00
Thanks!
2024-08-01 19:04:16
Also consistent with him knowing he's the frontrunner. I very much doubt he knows he has been selected when the vetting process has yet to complete.
2024-08-01 19:07:24
Should happen over the weekend, definitely would if she ultimately selects him.
2024-08-01 19:11:49
Heyy am I invited? 😥
2024-08-01 19:16:26
Well you better be right because I'm tailing you. On vacation and haven't had much time to look at this in detail.
2024-08-01 20:22:58
Many of them cancelled events lol
2024-08-01 20:37:35
Alright, new deal. I'm willing to cash Y folks out at 67c in size (beyond what's in book).
2024-08-01 20:54:27
I put the offer up on the book now
2024-08-01 21:22:14
Shapiro, obvs. Looks the 67c block was filled. I have the rest on offer at 65c.
2024-08-01 21:50:55
I dl the data from the Copernicus website and then crunch numbers
2024-08-01 21:53:41
The morgue since apparently Shapiro covered up a murder case: [link removed]
2024-08-01 21:54:07
(Don't take seriously)
2024-08-01 23:15:28
Do it, might be free money!
2024-08-02 13:11:09
Shit!
2024-08-02 13:19:42
Weird. Maybe we're doing something differently? My ERA5 model says it's possible.
2024-08-02 17:28:25
[link removed]
2024-08-02 17:28:40
Well yes, which was always the case lol
2024-08-02 17:30:10
Lolz good point
2024-08-02 17:31:24
Us Y folks just chilling
2024-08-02 17:46:45
Woah! Big news, man. Now try taking 100K to propose the nominee markets. Looks like free money!
2024-08-02 17:51:25
No I'm saying if he believes what he's saying, should spend 100K proposing all the nominee markets. He won't. Reality is that anyone who tries will get disputed and lose them all.
2024-08-02 17:59:14
I still think Bernie will issue another stronger endorsement before Harris becomes the nominee.
2024-08-02 18:36:02
Axios: "The Israeli Mossad assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh by detonating an explosive device planted in advance in his bedroom at the Iranian government official residence in Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the issue confirmed to Axios."
2024-08-02 18:46:59
Disagree. Probably depends on VP as well. And this will be argued even if nothing further happens.
2024-08-02 18:54:25
He obviously endorsed. Formal endorsement is arguable, but there's no incentive to propose rather than buy shares. People have argued what you're saying time and time again in court (for years). It has never won as an argument. Proposals are judged by validity when proposed, not by "oh it wasn't proposed last week". That is irrelevant.
2024-08-02 20:47:49
"You are going to continue to be nothing by the time Josh and I get done with you"
2024-08-02 20:51:00
"[Vereb] confronted and threatened me that evening leaving me weeping and in shock standing alone in a parking lot,"
2024-08-02 21:19:41
Jeez this market just keeps pumping 10c for no reason, amazing
2024-08-02 21:33:18
Gg?
2024-08-02 21:57:35
Looks like they are currently unavailable to pick up the phone. I hear they are in mourning.
2024-08-02 21:57:43
Lfgo!
2024-08-02 22:10:39
Damn you're right
2024-08-02 23:22:55
I don't understand what crack the Y folks are smoking...
2024-08-02 23:25:59
It is indeed genuine stupidity. It may well be Shapiro, but this news means nothing.
2024-08-02 23:32:11
Good times, I lost 20K that month
2024-08-03 00:07:41
Would be really annoying. Does that mean he pulled a fast one over me in March? Was hoping to make it all back this month...
2024-08-03 10:13:43
Air temperature is everything globally. Air is air whether over land or sea.
2024-08-03 10:37:13
I don't understand how the Y people are diamond handing at this price when interviews have yet to finish. I agree y'all will most likely win, but jeez.
2024-08-03 21:36:10
Buy more
2024-08-03 22:29:48
Looks like the insiders are on vacation this month
2024-08-04 02:29:21
Agreed, encourage folks on both sides to join the process if and when it kicks off: https://discord.com/invite/uma
2024-08-04 02:32:14
There's no "scam" angle. If this goes to dispute, Polymarket will probably clarify and it won't even be technically decided by UMA.
2024-08-04 02:35:41
He definitely endorsed (See Haley). He definitely explicitly endorsed. But formal endorsement is arguable, higher bar that may or may not have been met. I think AOC resolved with a statement fairly similar to Bernie's. So I'm not sure what we are considering "formal endorsement". We won't have a prolonged fight over this anyways. Bernie likely will just endorse more strongly before official nomination, or if not, then Polymarket will clarify when disputed and save us time disagreeing.
2024-08-04 02:39:02
Feel free, I ain't deleting. Fair to say my stance has evolved over time.
2024-08-04 02:42:18
Irrelevant. Folks have tried that argument in court many times the past few years, and it has never worked. Disputes determine validity of proposals at time of proposal. Does not matter if it was not proposed until a minute, hour, day, or weeks after rules being satisfied.
2024-08-04 03:07:58
Regardless of the veracity, can we agree it sounds bad when people say "Shapiro covers up sexual harassment and MURDER of women!"
2024-08-04 03:13:45
Keep buying N guys, I double dog dare you! As a Bernie Bro, I believe in my guy to set the record straight.
2024-08-04 03:20:10
DM
2024-08-04 03:20:32
Oh they're sweating. They're sweating hard.
2024-08-04 03:21:51
Guys, remember the last time when there was an obvious favorite candidate and slowly everyone issued statements against them or endorsed another person? Yeah I forget what happened there..
2024-08-04 03:24:05
They usually strike by now, oddly radio silent this month
2024-08-04 03:29:33
I want moar shares
2024-08-04 04:14:31
It literally is in prediction markets. See the top traders!
2024-08-04 08:25:48
NASA won't let this streak end...
2024-08-04 17:18:53
Is that Team N or Team Y?
2024-08-04 17:22:30
when the world needed him most, he vanished
2024-08-04 20:22:17
ngl I'm kinda scared, pulled my bids for now
2024-08-04 20:57:45
Because Copernicus data is just fine. Implies maybe 40% chance. It's concerning that new accounts are swooping in with large orders.
2024-08-04 21:32:08
Yeah maybe in a couple days
2024-08-04 21:33:29
I added back an order if you want more. I have calmed down and feel zen.
2024-08-04 22:12:01
Did you actually?
2024-08-04 22:39:53
I bet my beliefs
2024-08-05 00:35:10
Lol should buy more N, in that case
2024-08-05 00:35:41
👌🏾
2024-08-05 02:17:57
Bruh, that doesn't mean I won't sweat a 100K+ share position lol! And usually the market is wrapped up by the 3rd or 4th. The fact that it hasn't does make me anxious. But yes, I still believe I will win.
2024-08-05 02:19:54
I dunno. ERA5 points to it being a close race.
2024-08-05 02:58:46
But he didn't emerge victorious
2024-08-05 04:48:26
Probably will soon
2024-08-05 09:56:01
March was not wrong. It was very close (and both NOAA and Berkeley Earth were only 0.01 hotter!). But yes, basically the same reasons for March apply here as well.
2024-08-05 10:31:51
I refuse to flip and be on the same side as you
2024-08-05 16:14:23
why is N going up
2024-08-05 16:25:42
i mean it would suck, but I was already up 300K this year, no biggie really
2024-08-05 16:39:03
Well I queued up sells at 89c. If you're an insider pls cash me out chief!
2024-08-05 16:51:52
Guess I'm getting zero sleep for the next few days or week
2024-08-05 17:07:12
What makes you say that @Iverson
2024-08-05 17:12:53
Maybe you're looking at the wrong data cause my ERA5 calcs say 40% chance of hottest
2024-08-05 17:24:45
real odds are 99% imo
2024-08-05 17:41:39
dunno why y'all were burning all ur cash on a coinflip
2024-08-05 17:42:58
tbh I did not even check JRA-3Q this month, surprised it's 12 under
2024-08-05 17:53:06
I mean I got my MS in astronomy
2024-08-05 17:59:20
Yeah I meant coinflip based only on ERA5. My ERA5-only model said greater than 40% chance of hottest.
2024-08-05 18:16:45
Not over yet
2024-08-05 18:23:15
No I think odds are higher, obvs. But just saying I don't understand why he says definitely N when ERA5 implies it is very likely (40%+).
2024-08-05 18:27:35
That only makes sense if you think no chance VP announcement happens today. Could be true at this point.
2024-08-05 18:53:56
"Shapiro covers up the sexual harassment and murder of young women for his friends" just sounds like such a damning attack line
2024-08-05 19:12:55
My ERA5 model only takes into account surface air. That already includes the entire globe. Didn't look at ERA5 sea. What is LOTI?
2024-08-05 19:44:20
oh yeah i know that, just blanked on the abbreviation
2024-08-05 21:21:02
Well I'd wait until at least one of the nomination markets is settled and resolved before proposing. No biggie, just another 2 hours.
2024-08-05 23:19:00
Glad you've seen the light, itys
2024-08-06 02:22:52
Thanks, can we take it back to 90?
2024-08-06 02:40:02
No one is an insider, that was always a crackpot theory from people who lose in these markets. No one is larping as an insider, a few are joking about it because it's an inside joke at this point.
2024-08-06 02:41:56
ERA5 data is pretty hot, implies higher than 40% of Y
2024-08-06 02:54:34
Looks like you'll lose lol
2024-08-06 03:00:58
1 Hour left
2024-08-06 03:16:24
Im queued at 69c if you want more N at 31c, chief
2024-08-06 03:50:30
Guess Team N has run out of money. Just let it happen, we're going to 90c and then 100c!
2024-08-06 03:59:08
For anyone who wants to exit, I have a nice sell stack at 89c. Will keep it open for the next 12 hours or so.
2024-08-06 04:08:57
alright bro, now go propose all the nomination markets. oh wait you won't because you'd get disputed on them and lose!
2024-08-06 08:23:19
Yeah this is irrelevant
2024-08-06 08:24:11
I'll share in a couple days, probs
2024-08-06 09:49:01
I'm in the ER rn
2024-08-06 10:28:21
That it's hot
2024-08-06 13:05:19
Yes, and FTR Copernicus implies greater than 40% chance of hottest even before considering other datasets.
2024-08-06 16:14:35
I... wasn't kidding. I'm fine now, but that hurt like a bitch
2024-08-06 16:27:05
ty, I'm doing better now
2024-08-07 00:22:15
Well cat's out of the bag, so I might as well explain. Before the month is over, ERA5 and other databases are great. N folks have been misinterpreting ERA by not looking at how ERA5 and GISTEMP are correlated. ERSST dropped an update yesterday, so now you can actually just calculate the value directly using NASA's code. It's 121 vs last year's 119. For the record, ERA5 is 123 this year. Usually the anomalies are pretty similar (historically avg of 1 difference), but last year ERA5 was way hotter than GISTEMP. This seems to be what confused the N people who are comparing ERA5 to ERA5 and not comparing ERA5 to GISTEMP. Anyways, now we have NASA's own data showing 121. That's why the "insider" took market to 97c yesterday. There are no insiders. He was just running the code on GISTEMP homepage.
2024-08-07 00:38:40
Yeah just need to add the updated ERSST data from NOAA and add it to the GISTEMP ERSST. Actually someone posted about it here I think a month or two ago? But I guess no one understood what he meant. I figured it out eventually. Note tho I bet big BEFORE ERSST was out. So I predicted this correctly beforehand.
2024-08-07 00:46:44
I don't just think. I know. That's why the Vanadium guy sniped and took market to 97c. Looks like that was right after ERSST updated on NOAA website. The guy with random in his name also leaked this in comments below, that N is burning their money. In any case, I'm posting because I'd prefer cashing out at fair odds.
2024-08-07 01:05:14
@tacotownz lol yeah, obviously there's a small chance they win if they get rlly lucky, but I'm sharing the accurate data as of today. And it's obviously true based on the multiple other guys who already leaked it or traded it like random, vanadium, and dank. Lead a horse to water, indeed.
2024-08-07 01:14:37
My guess would be end of this week, maybe Thursday/Friday. If not, then Monday/Tuesday
2024-08-07 01:21:39
Not gonna just give it to you, but if you look at the directory there is some code to do the reverse. That might lead you in the right direction.
2024-08-07 01:29:46
This is where they post the release dates, but's on or before: [link removed].gov/gistemp/release_[link removed] They usually post earlier.
2024-08-07 01:30:26
cause past months they also moved it up, folks who traded previous markets know it already
2024-08-07 01:33:38
Also since ERSST released 2 days late, trading up until yesterday was just based on everyone using their models. At the end of the day, looks like Team Y just modelled better.
2024-08-07 01:37:34
Err well that's not good lol
2024-08-07 01:44:06
If it is, I don't know about it
2024-08-07 01:45:15
But yeah I imagine they must have a process of doing it on the back-end.
2024-08-07 04:38:50
That's because June was revised upwards. Not sure what you mean about reliability.
2024-08-07 04:39:59
July 2024 is currently 121 with latest run today.
2024-08-07 06:46:10
Ah I see what you're doing, it's a double subtraction issue. You're using the files from last report, so if your code is working then you'll reproduce the webpage results exactly with zero differences. Like this: [link removed]
2024-08-07 06:47:49
If your results do not match the report exactly, you have not gotten it fully working yet. Mine is working, and I'm using the latest data. We have maybe 1-3 more updates before this is finalized.
2024-08-07 14:17:02
Yeah, no. ERA5 analysis by itself always suggested a coin flip. Because it won't be as different from GISTEMP compared to last year.
2024-08-07 16:03:09
Has everything to do with what you said lol because you're misinterpreting ERA5.
2024-08-07 16:06:35
Yeah I said ERA5 = coinflip. It's not the only database you can look at tho, odds seemed better when putting it all together. The reason I keep saying ERA5 is because it's one of the main ones I look at, and everyone in the market keeps referencing it and saying that means 2024 isn't hottest. So I'm responding to that.
2024-08-07 16:15:02
Looks like market agrees
2024-08-07 16:41:33
I get 1.43 for 2024 Land SST and 1.43 for 2023 Land SST. And they've remained the same for last three days of GHCN updates.
2024-08-07 16:43:44
GISS can be lower than Copernicus and still hotter than last year.
2024-08-07 16:45:36
As expected from a Rethuglican
2024-08-07 20:25:47
lol yeah I meant land not SST oops. Well I haven't really calculated what SST by itself is tbh, only land.
2024-08-07 20:29:07
I've given away a mountain of alpha in the past 2 days. Honestly, probably should not have done that. At some point, I gotta call it. The models are secret sauce worked hard to refine. Put a lot of time into it after March fiasco. Anyways, you can shoot me a DM on Discord. I may give you something at least.
2024-08-07 20:42:38
What forum?
2024-08-07 21:43:03
aenews just sold all his shares for 60c, bet accordingly
2024-08-07 22:02:21
woah, very nice
2024-08-07 22:56:01
Which one?
2024-08-07 23:33:57
Maybe, I will have to retire from prediction markets if I lose this bet lol
2024-08-08 00:11:18
I want to win 🏆 big and go down in history. If I sell, has to be 88c+.
2024-08-08 00:15:08
They'll come out when NASA interns press the button
2024-08-08 00:23:49
Does that mean I made a mistake?
2024-08-08 00:56:51
Yeah August looks like it'll be another interesting month to model, see you there!
2024-08-08 01:28:14
10%?
2024-08-08 03:09:07
@oxamo Yeah, I think so. The N folks would have to get very lucky, but it's narrowly possible.
2024-08-08 03:09:33
Probably
2024-08-08 03:36:40
It's a 90% coinflip, bro
2024-08-08 03:38:12
Please guys, stop giving me more shares. I'm tired of taking your money...
2024-08-08 03:52:20
We won by all accounts, all measures, barring a big surprise.
2024-08-08 03:55:34
Sit tight and buckle up. We're almost there.
2024-08-08 03:56:09
Aren't you still 23K net Y?
2024-08-08 03:57:15
Don't know the answer, but it should be higher than last year.
2024-08-08 03:59:16
Yeah but NASA wants to keep the sweatytrain going. We can't break this streak, must own the Rethuglicans. We ain't Europe.
2024-08-08 04:01:29
Why are you filling me
2024-08-08 04:09:20
Gotcha. Yeah the anomaly is ~121 right now by my estimate. I'd say less than 1% chance it goes below and 10% it ties. So 90% we win.
2024-08-08 04:10:57
Feel free to buy more N
2024-08-08 04:18:14
Not great returns for 5 months, but hottest year is essentially a lock. I'll look into and trade August hottest after this market. Politics rn is pretty spicy, good opportunities there especially if you follow news closely.
2024-08-08 04:28:18
Yeah, of course. Feel free to add me on Discord. I have the same username.
2024-08-08 04:30:04
Oh @aenews silly me. No 2.
2024-08-08 04:54:58
Mortgage your home and buy more #notfinancialadvice
2024-08-08 05:39:09
Do you think I should pull my buy orders? When I ran it this morning, I got 143 for 2023 and 2024 tho...
2024-08-08 05:41:34
I'm not sure if I'll be able to sleep tonight. I know I gots this, but it's still a lot of money...
2024-08-08 05:44:20
Ok, we'll see in a day or two. Or maybe next week.
2024-08-08 05:53:54
I shared what I know in the comments.
2024-08-08 05:58:20
Thanks!
2024-08-08 07:07:50
I ain't no denier. This is the hottest July on record =)
2024-08-08 10:40:30
some say it is the second hottest
2024-08-08 11:38:09
"No is undervalued considering it's a No" excellent reasoning!
2024-08-08 15:47:46
Big Mike / Biden ticket
2024-08-08 15:56:47
The top N holder has a -1.3 Million P/L
2024-08-08 22:13:35
“Things are going to continue to get worse because we haven’t stopped doing the thing that’s making them worse,” said Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who wasn’t part of the report. Schmidt noted that different methodologies or calculations could produce slightly different results, including that July may have even continued the streak. The primary takeaway, he said: “Even if the record-breaking streak comes to an end, the forces that are pushing the temperatures higher, they’re not stopping.
2024-08-08 22:44:27
classic 89/89 market
2024-08-08 23:06:47
This is probably the most stubborn market I've ever traded
2024-08-09 00:02:40
Yeah amazing how this site is an infinite money generator
2024-08-09 00:59:33
I literally called this almost 3 weeks ago lol: [link removed]
2024-08-09 01:51:19
Is that N or Y
2024-08-09 01:51:37
Nice 1 share bro
2024-08-09 02:04:41
Darn, was hoping no one would find out I'm good friends with Gavin Schmidt, but I guess you figured it out. Congrats! 🎉
2024-08-09 04:35:55
Yes was the right side even before that!
2024-08-09 06:23:17
On or before the dates on release page: [link removed].gov/gistemp/release_[link removed]
2024-08-09 07:04:37
Which one?
2024-08-09 07:05:07
The problem is that they have no model
2024-08-09 09:42:13
ohhh the guy who posted the graph and pastebin?
2024-08-09 15:07:12
Copernicus data suggested coinflip. I called this like 3 weeks ago, lol: [link removed]
2024-08-09 15:27:31
gg
2024-08-09 16:01:00
Same! Cheers
2024-08-09 16:01:42
No. They are saying it's within the MoE. But currently, July 2024 is the hottest on record.
2024-08-09 16:05:35
Incorrect tho. Using just ERA5, odds were already 50% before July even ended. Overall odds with more data and databases were maybe 60-65% before NOAA released, and 80%+ after they released. Was 95%+ by yesterday.
2024-08-09 16:39:18
Thank you @TheDrachma
2024-08-09 17:12:25
It updated 2 hours back. You are cached, check again in Incognito, different browser, or different device.
2024-08-09 17:22:40
climate deniers btfo
2024-08-09 17:38:34
June was revised upwards by 4, and July is the hottest on record by 2. It's over, and 2024 is the hottest year on record. 0% chance otherwise.
2024-08-10 00:22:25
thanks!
2024-08-10 00:22:30
ty ty
2024-08-10 00:24:27
The climate nerds bought before August even started, they bought before we got more data on the 5th, and they kept buying up to official release. There was no inside trading, just much better modelling for most of the market history, and better parsing of NASA data for the last few days.
2024-08-10 00:25:27
lol
2024-08-10 00:27:03
Yeah and also, Team Yes literally posted the results of that analysis here including the 121 estimate. Team N simply believed their analysis was better and did not trust Team Y who gave them the answer.
2024-08-10 00:28:37
@Resonant That is not how it works
2024-08-10 17:02:11
Ayyy
2024-08-10 18:36:38
July was 77c after it happened, and August is already that price. Whew 🔥🔥🔥
2024-08-10 18:37:07
Guess folks realized the rig is in from NASA 🌞🌎
2024-08-10 19:02:09
Facts, they need the global "warming" narrative to continue!
2024-08-12 01:32:02
I've retired, sorry. Ask aenews3 instead.
2024-08-12 01:32:33
The hottest streak refuses to end! NASA won't let it...
2024-08-14 01:11:34
Doesn't make a difference
2024-08-14 02:16:31
gg, thanks for playing
2024-08-14 18:05:16
I'm so happy for the country and our children. I'm optimistic about the future, something I didn't feel a mere 6 weeks ago.
2024-08-14 19:38:35
Looks like we march to 55c bois!
2024-08-14 19:41:39
Seems possible, yeah
2024-08-15 14:11:03
Yeah I don't see how it could possibly not count, especially when DNC statement says he is a speaker at the caucus and council meetings, and said meetings are explictly on the DNC schedule.
2024-08-15 21:09:13
RIP my 100 shares of N on a few brackets, long live my 550 shares of tampon
2024-08-15 21:10:08
He said it
2024-08-15 21:42:56
Compound words will count as long as Fire or Fired is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.
2024-08-15 21:47:12
Note this only applies if the word is actually compound
2024-08-15 21:47:51
Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.
2024-08-15 22:02:46
I mean. There's no argument at all if he said it separately lol
2024-08-15 22:23:25
Problem is that there was at least one non-compound usage of "fire" anyways.
2024-08-16 09:11:42
The Polymarket Alpha group?
2024-08-16 23:57:58
Why is everyone selling?
2024-08-17 00:21:05
but even gopfan needs a coat?
2024-08-17 08:10:16
Maybe, I guess
2024-08-17 17:39:53
You should post in UMA. Voters are voting on this as we speak.
2024-08-18 04:37:17
"However, it was a covert / mossad action, not a military action." So a bomb exploding isn't a use of force? Big if true, must be a form of economic sanction!
2024-08-18 05:24:31
They didn't vote for No. They voted that it was too early to close, punting decision to future.
2024-08-19 17:26:37
wut?
2024-08-19 17:59:22
I don't know what you mean
2024-08-19 17:59:44
That market is done, not related
2024-08-20 04:17:28
I'm sleepy aenews rn, when will this end?
2024-08-20 21:17:29
Should I buy more?
2024-08-20 23:13:33
Would be funny if the "inside info" were real, but market resolves 50/50 'cause not disclosed
2024-08-20 23:19:37
Whatever you are trading on!
2024-08-20 23:33:44
you are buying boy at 70-80c dude
2024-08-20 23:34:06
dumbos
2024-08-21 01:42:36
Umm Idgi
2024-08-21 01:42:52
Yep
2024-08-21 03:36:53
What if everyone's inside information about the child being a girl and being a boy are all correct? Maybe they have twins or triplets and we resolve to 50/50 😃
2024-08-21 03:51:07
I just thought about it, and it's a way for everyone with claims to be right!
2024-08-21 04:09:30
You seem like a s-.... like a guy.
2024-08-21 04:58:13
How do you know? @BellumM I don't understand
2024-08-21 08:56:47
but will they protest again today?
2024-08-21 09:27:44
Is there any confirmation of those numbers? Guess we'll see today.
2024-08-21 20:33:03
Yeah, correct. If you lose dispute, you lose the bond. And to answer the main question, UMA is the decentralized Oracle that handles resolutions and facilitates disputes. However, Polymarket may also at their discretion issue rules clarifications that UMA will generally follow.
2024-08-21 20:39:04
The whole integrity of the site is in question if this is graded a 'yes'. Just as easy to say! That said, we'll see what happens today and tomorrow re:arrests.
2024-08-21 21:11:13
Huh? He said 55-60, what you smoking?
2024-08-21 21:52:06
Do you think we'll get more arrests today and tomorrow?
2024-08-21 22:11:01
@Iverson Meh, we'll see how it goes
2024-08-21 22:14:19
Woah gopfan2 rlly stealing my mojo
2024-08-21 22:15:50
I'd like to sue for copyright infringement
2024-08-21 22:19:34
Can't wait for Team Y to get sweaty hands after realizing they bonded a market that is fairly likely to resolve the other way
2024-08-21 22:43:35
They need to say the Miranda rights, confirm verbally they are protesting for DNC specifically, and then report the arrest went through and not simply detained. Oh and need to count all the wheels on the bus for good measure.
2024-08-21 22:44:08
I already won, sorry
2024-08-21 22:58:17
The CPD indicated in their press conference that they'd update with more accurate numbers once confirmed. So even if all arrests do in fact count, the number should be less than what that lawyer non-profit claimed.
2024-08-21 23:09:50
Bye 👋
2024-08-22 02:11:14
Wdym
2024-08-22 03:06:24
Is that 100+?
2024-08-22 03:47:53
I don't see much news for tonight other than the couple posted
2024-08-22 04:05:05
@Iverson Yep. And I'm not even saying we didn't have more than a couple today, but there's nothing to indicate more just yet. We'll see how it goes tomorrow and how many CPD reports.
2024-08-22 06:11:31
What was the final count?
2024-08-22 06:29:10
Seems many people have very different opinions and are confused on what others actually think
2024-08-22 07:00:08
I mean I agree. I had 70+ lol. It seemed clearly over 70, I stopped counting. I am kinda curious what it ended up being tho.
2024-08-22 18:44:55
Wdym? What market are you talking about?
2024-08-23 00:19:14
Big if true
2024-08-23 02:20:34
Whew
2024-08-23 03:10:43
Cope
2024-08-23 05:57:18
rip to all the poor souls who bonded joy at 99c and are fading Merriam Webster
2024-08-23 06:22:48
gg guys
2024-08-23 09:54:41
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (i.e. "Jewish" would not count").
2024-08-23 09:55:56
Affixations aren't considered compound words and are always under the "other forms" that do not count. For that matter, "hopeful" did not count for "hope" in Obama either.
2024-08-23 16:28:17
Neither is compound, as -ful and -less are suffixes.
2024-08-23 19:27:53
He suspended his campaign
2024-08-23 22:13:51
The clarification for this one is objectively incorrect. Bernie Sanders formal endorsement market resolved to No, so either this one must resolve to No or the prior resolution was incorrect. In reality, it seems they issued the same clarification to all endorsement markets without reading the differing rules.
2024-08-23 22:34:57
If you dispute, you'll need to dispute November as well. Just as a note.
2024-08-23 22:35:55
Speech market is correct, this one and November require formal endorsement which is different. Haley endorsement resolved Yes, so speech should be a Yes. Bernie formal endorsement resolved N. So this should be a N.
2024-08-23 22:46:25
Must fight in UMA server
2024-08-23 22:48:27
The most economical approach would be to propose Y and dispute. Saves money. If N wins, your shares win anyways.
2024-08-23 22:53:21
This one is actually wrong. If this resolves Yes, then that means either this or Bernie misresolved. I don't see any way around that?
2024-08-24 00:08:28
He did endorse him, but that's a different market
2024-08-24 00:09:13
None exists. In fact, his team actually retracted a legal filing today that would have indicated endorsement.
2024-08-24 00:13:43
@asdf4 Yep, I agree. That's what I was saying.
2024-08-24 04:01:47
Might be Jacqueline and Jack is her nickname. Or could be a girl named Jack, which some parents absolutely do, even if rare.
2024-08-24 04:02:24
Jacqueline Bieber, we are ready!
2024-08-24 04:07:25
It's not coping. I'm saying too early to resolve, lol. Obviously, it's way more likely a boy! But there is a chance it is a girl. Heck, maybe they had twins and only showed us one of them so far!
2024-08-24 04:35:28
It's a joke. But it's possible.
2024-08-24 04:40:51
No need to be rude, dude. It's obviously possible. Also obviously very unlikely!
2024-08-24 05:10:00
Jack might have a twin named Jill, even if you're right! Unlikely tho, I know..
2024-08-24 09:39:50
Yea it's possible, never know!
2024-08-24 09:59:30
When the world 🌎 needed him most, he vanished
2024-08-24 17:30:08
The reason I support N is because Bernie endorsement resolved N despite media reporting he endorsed, precisely because of this formal endorsement clause. For consistency, this market must resolve N or one of the resolutions must necessarily be incorrect.
2024-08-26 00:30:46
Sell your Y at 0.2c so I can move on with my life, TY
2024-08-26 00:30:55
23 hours
2024-08-26 01:22:02
5.2M, another couple M and it reaches majority. 3.8M and reaches quorum
2024-08-26 01:26:47
The rules say it doesn't count. Jewish is considered an "other form".
2024-08-26 01:27:23
Just cash me out. 0% chance this goes Y after the last votes.
2024-08-26 01:36:35
No
2024-08-26 02:06:21
Correct. It's the same market.
2024-08-27 05:28:32
Billy giving up the slack
2024-08-27 08:50:52
Upped my bids, if you want more action
2024-08-27 18:49:58
Fair, makes sense
2024-08-27 21:25:45
Seems hot to me
2024-08-28 02:01:42
Data is coming in pretty hot
2024-08-28 19:53:45
Wagmi
2024-08-29 22:42:39
Yeah for some reason I was getting filled at 99c, maybe people are betting on it not airing in the full interview? Or they just missed the excerpts.
2024-08-29 23:24:46
Thanks, best stream
2024-08-30 19:55:29
You need to do homework in every market you trade, if you want to have an edge
2024-08-30 21:11:00
How many are we at?
2024-08-30 22:58:54
Welp, guess those folks saying they would dispute were all talk. Probably for the best tho, as they'd have just been burning their money.
2024-08-30 23:03:30
In some countries and jurisdictions, apparently you can count this as 4!
2024-08-30 23:04:07
Where'd you find a 6th?
2024-08-31 04:30:17
Seems ogre tbh
2024-08-31 20:47:57
It is a fact that you need to get your hearing checked
2024-08-31 20:54:08
You whacks are free to buy more N if you really want, happy to leverage another 100K!
2024-08-31 21:12:16
wdym
2024-08-31 21:17:16
No, I trust my ears and common sense. I trust CNN. And finally, I trust the clarification.
2024-08-31 21:26:37
oh god
2024-08-31 21:27:14
Because people hear the teacher even if you personally don't. Not that surprising.
2024-08-31 21:31:41
This is great evidence for Yes, thanks!
2024-08-31 21:34:54
Because we have a finite amount of money
2024-08-31 21:36:46
Maybe you've hit a rate limit. Slow down, buster.
2024-08-31 21:50:30
wdym, I'm at like 250K shares bro
2024-08-31 21:55:15
Ah I see. Np
2024-09-01 00:39:08
Well it's very clear market is resolving Y. I suggest N baggies dump their worthless shares while they are still worth something.
2024-09-01 01:35:41
Don't let the door hit you on the way out
2024-09-01 11:39:42
I've never even traded this market
2024-09-01 11:41:04
Yeah I should have bought when price was low, might have missed the boat 🚤
2024-09-01 12:05:14
We care about the anomaly, not temperature
2024-09-01 12:18:16
See y'all in the next market
2024-09-02 00:38:15
Blah blah blah
2024-09-02 00:38:45
Maybe it's cooked bro! But yeah they are ests.
2024-09-02 00:39:08
Might be 600M today too
2024-09-02 03:39:54
[link removed].gov/gistemp/release_[link removed]
2024-09-02 07:07:35
@BabyYoda12 It can be sooner than that date
2024-09-03 06:04:47
🔥🔥🔥
2024-09-03 06:18:53
It's tied or marginally higher in ERA5. That implies GISS will be way higher, no?
2024-09-03 20:22:16
It'll resolve to whatever NASA publishes on their site
2024-09-03 21:13:16
?
2024-09-03 21:24:01
maybe buy low, sell high?
2024-09-04 02:27:53
...what?
2024-09-04 02:34:02
Think about it guys, would NASA want to let the streak end? We need to keep going through the election!
2024-09-04 02:49:34
I'm joking, tbc 😆...
2024-09-04 02:50:47
🔥🗻 + ❄🌊 = ?
2024-09-04 02:51:18
The Copernicus data would suggest it won't be close lol
2024-09-04 03:45:41
No
2024-09-04 03:47:43
No. Being roughly tied (and it ended up marginally higher, mind you) implies GISS won't be close
2024-09-04 04:11:43
I love you
2024-09-04 04:35:58
That is definitely wrong
2024-09-04 06:52:08
NOAA and NASA land pretty close to each other most of the time
2024-09-04 10:00:10
How would this help change last month's temperature?
2024-09-04 10:00:45
If it remains 119, then the anomaly needs be 120 or higher.
2024-09-04 19:16:37
What does this market have to do with UMA? It's straightforward and goes by what NASA publishes on their website.
2024-09-04 19:17:19
Why?
2024-09-04 19:18:52
Only using ERA5 (was assuming it ends a virtual tie), my ERA-Only estimate a few days ago was 127 +/- 7.
2024-09-04 20:07:27
Yeah, correct. This is a straightforward market that resolves according to NASA's published value.
2024-09-04 20:27:39
[link removed].gov/gistemp/release_[link removed]
2024-09-04 20:29:58
Finally someone who can math. Still seems a bit off tho, as I'd project 97% odds even with just ERA5 data. Not sure how you got 9%.
2024-09-04 23:48:44
Doubt, just rando
2024-09-05 00:18:31
Well if anyone wants to sell N shares before they go to zero, I have a sell block at 99.3c / 0.7c
2024-09-05 01:00:52
It's guaranteed lol
2024-09-05 01:01:38
Out of cash and want to buy other bonds like box office
2024-09-05 01:59:10
Doubt it
2024-09-05 02:53:59
Agree to disagree
2024-09-05 03:03:39
Yes, after a brief refractory period
2024-09-05 03:19:18
Second half tmrw
2024-09-05 03:26:23
I just bought some
2024-09-05 03:41:04
Where? Link?
2024-09-05 20:09:41
Wut
2024-09-05 20:19:16
If Aug 2023 were updated to be lower, that's good for Yes. Do you want to dump your bags? If so, I could let you out of some at 99c. Pretty clear this isn't remotely close.
2024-09-05 20:20:39
Lastly, database changes make no difference as the market is relative to all past months. As an aside, August will be the hottest in NOAA and Berkeley Earth, and probably every other dataset.
2024-09-05 20:25:57
It doesn't make a difference. It's unambiguously the hottest. "V5" would not change this, given monthly rankings are relative to each other, and given the margin.
2024-09-05 20:38:58
Because that is 131 anomaly in ERA5? So of course it implies GISS won't be close. And I'm not buying at 5%. I'm selling! Literally the opposite.
2024-09-05 21:10:59
The mistake you're making with ERA5 is that you're comparing the 131 anomaly to the 131 anomaly last year in 2023. You should be comparing ERA5 to GISTEMP, not ERA5 to ERA5. Same mistake people made last month. My ERA5-only model pegged this at 127 +/- 7 (2σ) when September started. You are clearly not correctly parsing the data.
2024-09-05 21:30:01
No, my ERA5 model only takes into account the surface air (t2m). I don't use the SST from Copernicus. If you want to discuss further, hit me up on Discord (aenews), Twitter (aenews_PI), or Reddit (aenews).
2024-09-05 21:31:25
^ Applies to both of you
2024-09-05 22:03:30
Well ERSST releases on the 3rd, so more like I bet 200K or so before that release. The uncertainty is gone at this point. My point tho is that even before that, it was a done deal.
2024-09-05 22:04:54
"Clear flip happening in july, with 0.1c disparity in august." Yeah that's pretty irrelevant, because GISTEMP is Land+Ocean.
2024-09-05 22:30:50
I think you're misreading. I'm saying it's irrelevant to look at only SST. We care about Land+Ocean. And we know roughly where it'll land because ERSST released on the 3rd. Again, I'm just saying this was a near certainty even before we got more data. Evidently, it's entirely dead now.
2024-09-05 22:42:35
Why is this market dropping when polling looks good for Harris?
2024-09-05 22:45:06
All of them?
2024-09-05 22:51:48
big brain!
2024-09-05 22:59:03
They'll latch onto anything that looks good for their candidate and dump it like trash when it no longer does
2024-09-06 01:32:49
Looks like the insiders were right after all
2024-09-06 05:01:17
GISS is Land+Ocean. So what if the ocean is slightly cooler? You need to look at both, then you'd see it's overall way hotter than last year. Or before ERSST, you could look at ERA5 surface air which captures the entire surface.
2024-09-06 05:31:40
Gg?
2024-09-06 05:40:57
Deadline lowballs
2024-09-06 05:47:37
I'd say judge for yourself
2024-09-06 06:04:52
Previews always count, you are simply wrong. They get rolled into Friday's number (or whatever the opening day is for a particular film).
2024-09-06 11:19:27
I'm sure there will be promo's, but dunno about a regular $5 coming back.
2024-09-06 12:23:24
No
2024-09-06 18:26:32
No
2024-09-06 18:27:16
It's impressive that the entire range is wrong despite the interval size
2024-09-06 19:44:57
Shall see!
2024-09-06 20:53:49
Bro you don't own any shares
2024-09-06 20:54:02
Correct
2024-09-06 21:03:48
Because I need cash for other markets
2024-09-06 22:27:27
You are delusional
2024-09-07 02:02:15
Wagmi
2024-09-07 02:36:45
Naw it's not just him. The estimates all align around 44M.
2024-09-07 04:37:53
LOL
2024-09-07 08:53:54
no matter how many times i smack it, it keeps coming back
2024-09-07 11:09:11
Historically, the anomalies are close to even, with GISS slightly lower.
2024-09-07 11:18:27
More than one account and two markets, have sold and re-bought as well. So probably more like a 30K win, broski
2024-09-07 20:13:26
Just woke up
2024-09-07 21:03:30
Did I bond the wrong bracket? Or wagmi?
2024-09-07 21:23:46
Well yeah, we have had the data since ERSST released on the 3rd. I already went big with 150K+ before that tho, so my modelling and analysis is simply superior.
2024-09-07 21:26:04
While the margin market is projecting 130, real people here are still buying N. Y'all should be buying cheap in the other market if you think you're right.
2024-09-07 21:50:59
No. I said the market is projecting 130. Please re-read.
2024-09-07 22:08:16
If you disagree with the projection of the margin market, you should buy there and fade 1.30+. Moreover, if you were remotely close to right, it should be +EV to have 2c shares in this market and buy 5c shares of [link removed] in the margin. For 7c you win if not hottest and win if it is close! You probably won't tho cause you know your shares are worthless.
2024-09-07 22:11:19
Doubt it
2024-09-07 22:12:03
estimates are conservative tho
2024-09-07 22:29:17
I see this is landing about where was expected, a bit under the ERA5 anomaly of 131. Slightly overperforming my ERA5-only model.
2024-09-07 22:30:15
I think the guy larping is the maniac who spams the comments and owns zero shares.
2024-09-07 22:51:06
You are a literal retard lol
2024-09-07 22:58:56
What a clown
2024-09-07 23:17:06
Pretty well, obviously. I've made 250K off them.
2024-09-07 23:35:11
LOL. I made 175K last month alone, across accounts, across markets, and across sites.
2024-09-08 00:35:56
ae-projection (Final): 130
2024-09-08 00:37:56
I don't even have sell orders lol, tho I will add some soon since I'm still low on cash
2024-09-08 00:55:15
Why are you trying to make people lose money?
2024-09-08 00:56:00
Still have zero sell orders. Will add shortly tho, at 99.3
2024-09-08 00:59:50
I'm praying for my bags. Please lord forgive me for my greed. Please let the Beetlejuice lovers swarm the theatres with glee, for the lols and for my pocketbook.
2024-09-08 01:10:57
Made more than 250K last month, try again
2024-09-08 02:05:08
Gg... Again?
2024-09-08 02:19:33
It's a BOND 🔐🔒🔐🔒
2024-09-08 02:19:40
Jk
2024-09-08 02:32:58
1. The ERA5 data itself implies very low chance of N. 2. We have more data now, so it's definitive.
2024-09-08 02:33:18
Same
2024-09-08 02:36:06
As promised, I have a nice sell stack at 99.3c since I'm running low on cash. I recommend folks with N sell before they go to zero.
2024-09-08 02:42:01
Beetlejuice is a bond, wdym lol
2024-09-08 02:54:46
Thanks, keep coping while I win both bets
2024-09-08 03:40:03
Good one!
2024-09-08 03:40:44
Please buy more N 🙏
2024-09-08 03:56:22
Hope not
2024-09-08 04:11:23
Wdym
2024-09-08 04:12:55
Ignore the crazy guy pumping in the comments. I was correct about 121 last month as well. I'm just sharing the alpha. This isn't remotely close, so y'all should save your money.
2024-09-08 04:48:15
I expect an apology once the data releases in a few days
2024-09-08 10:59:47
And what is the anomaly in ERA5? That is a 131 anomaly. A tie in ERA5 in my model implies a median of about 127 in GISTEMP. Last year during El Nino, ERA5 kept outpacing GISTEMP. This differential has shrunk to very little the past few months, and we are back to historical normalcy on average.
2024-09-08 17:25:52
It was an incredibly close market (like last month). NOAA and Berkeley Earth both reported only 0.01° hotter than the record. Moreover, revisions hurt Y in that market because it was pegged to the value itself not the record. If NOAA had been the resolution source, market would have resolved N on tie due to the 0.01° downrevision in both NOAA and GISTEMP.
2024-09-08 21:05:04
It's objectively true, why are you saying "wrong"? I'm not doing any calculation, I'm just relaying the actual numbers.
2024-09-08 21:47:13
NOAA uses the same GHCN+ERSST data that GISTEMP uses, and it was only 0.01° hotter. With the market rules at the time, it would have resolved N if NOAA was the resolution source. The reason I bet the way I did is because there was a buffer of 1 due to the downrevision. And indeed, it was incredibly close with GISTEMP landing at 1.39 vs the 1.37 strike in the market. If it had been 2 lower, N would have taken it.
2024-09-08 22:38:51
Ignore. It's a troll. Tho you should dump your N fr.
2024-09-08 23:00:17
Meh. I'd say 65% above 129, 35% 125-129, 0% everything else
2024-09-09 00:56:24
I know you do lol. I guess either you are pumping your bags or you are retarded.
2024-09-09 02:24:37
because the film was a big success
2024-09-09 04:59:53
Land-Ocean anomaly on 1951-1980 base period, as posted by NASA/GISTEMP
2024-09-09 06:16:42
Do you... Want more? Always happy to fill you more at 4c. But fair warning that the shares are worthless as I explained in previous thread.
2024-09-09 13:53:10
Assuming 2023 remains at 119, 2024 needs be at least 120. In reality, it'll be about 130.
2024-09-09 14:29:10
111M is pretty auspicious
2024-09-09 14:48:35
When will you stop pumping your bags
2024-09-09 15:51:48
Looks like the pump is finally over
2024-09-09 16:34:02
El Nino has been over for 3-4 months, not really relevant
2024-09-09 17:29:19
We are in ENSO Neutral, not La Nina. And the incoming La Nina is a weak La Nina. I don't understand if you are just trolling or this retarded.
2024-09-09 19:32:02
Are you finally realizing you're wrong? Well it's been fun.
2024-09-09 20:58:34
There's no mud. It'll likely be hotter in every single database. Won't be remotely close in GISTEMP. Last month was divided, and actually very close.
2024-09-09 21:13:59
Where are you getting your information? The anomaly is roughly 130.
2024-09-09 21:53:35
Post picture with Imgur, definitely don't believe that
2024-09-10 01:09:15
True. Well, I do have multiple accounts in the first place, but most the action is from my main. You have a point. If nothing else tho, I kinda want to reach higher on the leaderboard.
2024-09-10 03:20:24
Implies hottest in GISTEMP
2024-09-10 15:02:28
In a surprise to no one, the final is 130. Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market.
2024-09-10 15:17:20
Thanks!
2024-09-10 15:17:43
lolz love you too buddy
2024-09-10 15:25:21
Congrats and condolences to all, and see you in the next market!
2024-09-10 15:30:29
I think it will, but only 87% confident there cause it's more narrow than this one
2024-09-10 15:30:53
I also have a few Y shares there
2024-09-10 16:13:55
It was published like an hour and 14 minutes ago, 11AM ET
2024-09-10 17:11:36
Woo hoo! 😃
2024-09-10 22:24:56
easy money, orange is getting SQUEEZED tonight
2024-09-10 23:14:33
That's every festival
2024-09-10 23:15:22
Sorry, but we'd RIG it anyways even if she makes a little oopsie, just like we RIGGED the election in 2020 👉
2024-09-10 23:49:15
Woah so much liquidity for Trump holders to max buy worthless shares
2024-09-11 02:57:12
Hate to say it, but I told you so 😆
2024-09-11 03:00:52
Thanks!
2024-09-11 03:59:44
Where are the Trump fans?
2024-09-11 04:13:54
I did
2024-09-11 04:44:50
Harris is up on virtually every single prediction market and gambling site rn
2024-09-11 05:11:49
You know it's bad when even Trashfalgar says Harris won by a good margin: [link removed]
2024-09-11 15:29:29
What's the plan, chief?
2024-09-11 20:58:51
Moreover, Harris should be higher in the first place
2024-09-11 21:17:25
This is a very degen market
2024-09-12 05:22:12
I have yet to see a single reputable poll where Harris didn't win lol, even Republican pollsters had her up
2024-09-12 22:53:29
close to counting but rules say the cute furry animal with retractible claws
2024-09-13 02:31:38
Fill me naysayers
2024-09-13 06:28:38
Well it's a good sign you're on the wrong side. The good news? It's not too late to switch.
2024-09-13 20:53:17
Pretty obvious what the rules intend and how the platform would rule
2024-09-14 01:56:53
We've managed to make it every single month, even if only by a little. Now's finally the time, probably.
2024-09-14 03:44:10
I do both. I buy early-middle, buy near the end, and buy start of the next month.
2024-09-14 03:57:16
No?
2024-09-14 20:34:54
Why are people still buying N on this?
2024-09-14 21:22:16
Doubt it
2024-09-15 11:33:55
He's gonna lose, and he knows it
2024-09-15 11:43:41
🐔🐔🐔
2024-09-16 20:56:14
If any of you retardio N folks decide to dump, I'm keeping some sells open for you. Will pull an hour before the livestream!
2024-09-16 21:32:56
Ok bro, I'm sure I'll lose more in this market than my Top 5 all time losses combined
2024-09-16 22:19:10
Woah some serious diamond hands in this market
2024-09-16 22:41:21
Same
2024-09-16 23:26:54
I'm sweating bullets!
2024-09-17 00:41:09
hold my hand
2024-09-17 01:31:40
I'm not the 2nd tho
2024-09-17 02:17:40
"prediction markets.... get ready to cash your tickets, the answer is YES"
2024-09-17 03:34:28
You market sold all your shares at 7c
2024-09-17 04:56:05
It hurts, I know. But we will get through this brother
2024-09-17 04:56:34
[link removed].
2024-09-19 17:55:51
Maybe this is the last chance for Team N to come out winners 🙏🙏🙏
2024-09-20 23:49:18
ggs
2024-09-20 23:54:44
Might want to step out of your bubble
2024-09-21 01:14:41
Oh no
2024-09-21 07:33:07
At long last, the streak has been broken! We shall be unburdened by what has been, global warming is over...
2024-09-23 22:09:47
too hot
2024-09-25 19:55:33
So what are the odds Huobi actually makes an announcement?
2024-09-25 19:59:32
Polymarket is basically determining the market, not UMA
2024-09-25 22:14:38
Why are people so confident? Idgi
2024-09-25 22:18:08
How so? I bought at 30c
2024-09-25 23:34:59
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html
2024-09-26 03:35:46
Good chance they flake? Even delaying would be enough, if not.
2024-09-26 03:48:14
Justin Sun is a flaker tho, no? I had all crypto in TRX before I did Polymarket.
2024-09-26 03:48:39
So I unfortunately know a thing or two about Justin Sun
2024-09-26 04:55:52
I give up, the insiders are too stronk
2024-09-26 20:59:50
That seems compelling to me, personally
2024-09-27 13:00:50
You're lucky I left limits up and let you effectively roll back most your trades at 30c.
2024-09-27 13:15:11
It's alright, that was my bad for sure
2024-09-27 20:03:29
Huobi is a Chinese exchange
2024-09-28 00:12:18
Tick tock naturalnoob 🕦
2024-09-29 02:36:20
lol
2024-09-29 10:15:55
Welcome back!
2024-09-30 06:30:18
thanks for playing
2024-09-30 08:55:09
You can average down if you still believe there's a shot. Though... I don't think so.
2024-09-30 11:15:35
"However, Israel has just succeeded in significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities without putting a single troop on the ground in Lebanon — at least for now." - Punchbowl News
2024-09-30 11:15:58
Good luck with your argument
2024-09-30 11:16:25
Clear site cookies and log back in first
2024-09-30 11:38:15
Ok bro
2024-09-30 18:53:48
People are still fading this market?
2024-09-30 20:23:16
Some serious copium
2024-09-30 20:24:33
50Pence and I will resolve the market, many are saying this (joke)
2024-09-30 20:40:38
Keep coping
2024-10-01 11:50:45
You do realize November already resolved Yes, right?
2024-10-01 13:45:18
"The Israeli military began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, targeting what it said early Tuesday was Hezbollah military infrastructure in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border, the first such incursion by Israel into its northern neighbor’s territory in nearly two decades." - New York Times
2024-10-01 13:47:15
Largest incursion into their territory in TWO DECADES, and multiple tanks have crossed the border along with actual ground troops. This is clearly not the type of special ops the rules are intended to exclude.
2024-10-01 16:12:40
I'm out, peace ✌
2024-10-02 02:27:33
Easy dubs
2024-10-02 02:31:43
Why
2024-10-02 07:42:51
The salty tears... I can't wait
2024-10-02 10:55:35
Will laugh at the Vance buyers if they lose this one
2024-10-02 11:03:12
Naw this is very close
2024-10-02 11:03:29
💩💩💩
2024-10-02 11:03:51
Ok bro
2024-10-02 11:06:02
I don't understand why people are so confident about this, could land either way
2024-10-02 11:43:35
Feel free to fill me if y'all are so confident it's a 🔒
2024-10-02 11:44:28
Alright, buy more then?
2024-10-02 11:50:20
Nice fat block at 20c for y'all
2024-10-02 12:11:15
Yeah 0% chance of hottest
2024-10-02 21:31:35
Time to tear down the wall
2024-10-02 22:41:13
Reporting seems pretty split, and reputable polls have been close to even
2024-10-02 23:31:56
Sold out my N, this is dumb
2024-10-03 00:20:08
Gg
2024-10-03 00:20:33
Last chance for dumbos to sell before their shares go to zero
2024-10-03 00:26:43
You should exit before your shares are worth zero.
2024-10-03 00:27:20
Reveal period is 24 hours
2024-10-03 00:35:14
Final resolution is Yes, will be resolved in 23.5 hours
2024-10-03 00:35:24
No
2024-10-03 00:51:26
Seriously? Dump your bags now. Stop holding worthless shares.
2024-10-03 01:08:26
97.6% P2 Yes
2024-10-03 01:33:35
You're mixing it up with the other vote. The current results are 98.48% Yes and 1.52% P4.
2024-10-03 02:05:23
Yes 98.67% (1,198,718.02) vs. Early Request 1.33% (16,097.04)
2024-10-03 02:07:39
Yes 99.18% (1,946,401.8) vs. Early Request 0.82% (16,097.04)
2024-10-03 03:24:39
When I take a crap, pretty close to my toilet 🚽
2024-10-03 03:39:56
Last chance to sell for 0.1c guys. I'm pulling my sell order in an hour.
2024-10-03 03:44:02
Just crapped and I feel better now
2024-10-03 03:54:30
np, put up a bit more if you want
2024-10-03 04:00:40
I did, I think
2024-10-03 10:20:21
Walz won IMO but I'm a LIB. For the purposes of this market, seems like a coin flip.
2024-10-04 09:39:21
Is this really what the Vance guys are betting on? Look. Y'all may win. But it'll be razer close. This is not the bond you think it is.
2024-10-05 15:48:11
Meh. Every reputable poll has been close to even: +2 Vance, +1 Vance, or tied
2024-10-07 00:53:47
It's too bad YouGov wasn't 1 point better for Walz
2024-10-07 09:58:02
gn
2024-10-07 20:17:37
Balz against the Walz rn, hucker down team
2024-10-07 21:51:49
ok
2024-10-07 21:52:32
lol
2024-10-07 22:20:27
Did I really derisk at the bottom before this wins? Fek
2024-10-07 22:22:09
[link removed]
2024-10-07 22:22:31
"The @WorldLibertyFi token sale is coming soon! Don’t miss out—only those on the whitelist will be able to participate. Link in bio"
2024-10-07 23:06:41
Hopefully next week, I want this market over with already
2024-10-08 07:52:00
I can't believe this, I never thought we'd go out this way... cold and alone waiting for the rescue that never came
2024-10-08 19:33:50
Sweet, guess I can rebuy the shares I sold
2024-10-09 01:01:12
Sure DM me @aenews_PI on X or @aenews on Discord
2024-10-09 02:06:30
lol
2024-10-09 22:07:06
[link removed]
2024-10-10 03:26:08
What does that have to do with token deployment?
2024-10-10 03:27:07
Looks like they'll be able to launch by the end of the month if they're aiming for pre-election.
2024-10-10 11:11:01
@Le-King Because for them to milk as nuch money off the project as possible, they should aim to launch before the election. Either Trump wins and he's set to no longer be a private citizen, or he loses and the Trump brand becomes far weaker.
2024-10-10 20:52:41
why are my 900K Harris shares underwater? Can we take this back to 48c already?
2024-10-10 21:03:56
I know, I regret my sells already
2024-10-10 21:09:30
Let's see
2024-10-11 07:27:46
What's the date?
2024-10-11 20:38:48
Can we go back to 45c for old time's sake?
2024-10-11 21:22:27
Sold it like a chump at 45c, that's the joke
2024-10-11 21:23:37
Not really, I'm still up 40K for the month. But yeah, it really should have been 60K, at least. Shouldn't have paper-handed.
2024-10-11 21:30:25
True, I can't argue with that!
2024-10-11 21:40:33
Guess the Border N truthoors have given up, sad
2024-10-11 21:43:45
Truth is I didn't watch this rally and didn't count, but it's just dumb money on N
2024-10-11 22:08:05
Time to take the gloves off Glover, don't let Team Y get away with this one!
2024-10-11 22:56:18
Disputed
2024-10-12 00:15:16
We cooked?
2024-10-12 00:18:13
Do you want my shares bro
2024-10-12 03:54:51
Looks like they are all +
2024-10-13 05:11:40
Only seems thin because we're dealing with a low grossing film. A 1M difference here is like ~10M difference for a 100M film. 8.2M is the final for Friday. With 5.5M Saturday, that's a 13.8M. Even with a 45% drop on Sunday, it'll still be over 16M for the weekend.
2024-10-13 06:00:14
@Itzcoffeez Previews on Mojo (and all reporting outlets) are rolled into opening day. So Wednesday/Thursday previews are part of Friday's gross. New traders get confused by this every market and donate to the sharps, but that's the way the industry does it.
2024-10-13 12:16:13
Ah yeah I also got the failed trxs
2024-10-13 19:56:40
Nice try bro
2024-10-13 19:57:12
Well Mojo updated with 18.3M weekend (est). Nice try, guys.
2024-10-13 20:00:19
Car is a very reputable commenter 😳
2024-10-13 20:10:27
Alright Y bros, I've got a nice sell wall for you
2024-10-13 20:50:31
Please Lord forgive me for forsaking the wisdom of the Great Mountain Man. Now let us return to 20c for the lols and for my pocketbook.
2024-10-13 20:56:56
Good luck holding Y when they say they are launching November 5 or date unknown in the Spaces tomorrow
2024-10-13 21:04:08
I will paperhand both sides, going for a record
2024-10-13 21:05:55
As the former #1 / #2 Yes Bro I will salute you
2024-10-13 21:13:22
Such is life 😭
2024-10-13 22:44:10
I wonder what it tells us when the most vocal Y guy is downsizing
2024-10-14 04:11:42
Yeah that's what I was saying earlier
2024-10-14 05:02:42
Surprised Y for 19+ is so low. Usually market is quick to react to Jatinder and Empire updates.
2024-10-14 05:27:38
Thank you decap
2024-10-14 05:51:39
It's /s
2024-10-14 21:40:17
Probably couple hours, dunno why people are still buying
2024-10-15 03:40:02
Why isn't naturalnoob buying more?
2024-10-15 08:00:39
I mean, that part isn't really up for debate
2024-10-15 08:05:35
Based
2024-10-15 09:23:48
Lol Mojo site changed the domestic number from $18,893,642 to $14,117,291, removed international, and global is now the previous domestic. Not that it matters, of course. Dumb site...
2024-10-15 09:24:32
Probably will be fixed later today
2024-10-15 09:34:23
It's clearly not guaranteed. If Trump wins the EC, decent shot of also winning the PV. Decent tho, is maybe 50-60%.
2024-10-15 13:21:53
Ggs
2024-10-15 13:22:07
I deeply regret dumping at 45c
2024-10-15 13:44:31
If I had only stinkbid, I'd have been able to catch the dip to a few cents when you dumped, too.
2024-10-15 22:52:46
Yes you get bond back once settled in 2 hours, plus $5 reward
2024-10-16 02:28:16
Really?
2024-10-16 02:28:43
Reading comprehension issues
2024-10-16 02:57:40
Just like the election!
2024-10-16 05:09:50
How is this market below 42c? lol
2024-10-16 05:09:55
[link removed]
2024-10-16 05:11:27
[link removed]
2024-10-16 05:11:38
Remind me how this market is at 66c?
2024-10-16 05:21:39
Umm exactly? Isn't that a good thing?
2024-10-16 06:06:33
Oh no I missed that new poll
2024-10-16 22:21:04
amen
2024-10-16 22:32:26
How do these N tards expect to win when they can't even get the price to reach 5c?
2024-10-16 22:34:34
naw bro maybe the UMA whales will side with the N guys for that 50X return ammiright?
2024-10-16 22:38:03
im so scared bro!
2024-10-16 22:46:01
Team N is afraid of losing, price is slipping
2024-10-16 22:48:18
Then buy more if you dare, but you won't because your shares are going to zero by the end of the day
2024-10-16 22:49:03
🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔
2024-10-16 22:49:50
Maybe one day all the whales will lose a bond, and the fish buying lottos will make a fortune
2024-10-16 23:11:04
Did it deploy? I thought it did
2024-10-16 23:50:44
nice juicy block for N folks to buy
2024-10-17 01:05:14
holy shit, 900K voted for P4, 39% P4 now
2024-10-17 01:07:46
more than I thought tbh, expected 95-99% P2
2024-10-17 01:12:44
I should have sold more at 99.3
2024-10-17 01:19:10
The N guys are too chicken to buy even after they miraculously got a whale on their side
2024-10-17 01:35:00
correct, they are dumber
2024-10-17 06:33:20
Note: The vote has met quorum and will resolve to Yes in 17.5 hours.
2024-10-17 07:36:51
Osborn has no chance to win, imo
2024-10-17 07:58:51
This is a lock, free money
2024-10-17 10:56:47
Wth is happening in this market?
2024-10-17 18:31:33
Naw, I'll buy at 75ish tho. If y'all are so confident that Fischer is cooked just fill me.
2024-10-17 18:32:23
Meh just nothing to indicate Osborn has a chance, ignoring the rigged polling
2024-10-17 20:52:56
Alright, I gave in. I'll do 77c, I guess.
2024-10-17 23:26:14
The market will resolve in 40 minutes. Why is the price still 99.4c lol?
2024-10-17 23:44:06
lol
2024-10-17 23:44:40
Sell your N shares for 0.2c before they are redeemable for $0 in 20 minutes guys. Why are you holding?
2024-10-18 00:03:47
Redeemable in a few minutes, sit tight. And if you still have N, make sure to sell.
2024-10-18 00:15:03
chill dude it is resolving shortly
2024-10-18 00:29:19
I told you it was resolving soon, jeez. Dumbasses.
2024-10-18 01:23:43
🐔🐔🐔🐔🐔
2024-10-18 04:24:12
You're a time traveler, aren't you? Just buy the winning sharres!
2024-10-18 06:47:24
dumped for now, gonna re-assess and re-queue
2024-10-18 12:27:41
Last poll from her camp was +6, and this one was +7
2024-10-18 19:55:58
My ERA5 model had a median of 127 a couple weeks back
2024-10-18 20:01:44
Well it's the 18th now. Final data usually releases more than a week earlier, so this is pretty late (due to the outage in Ashville).
2024-10-18 20:04:05
Because it won't
2024-10-18 20:04:35
Please buy N and fill me!
2024-10-18 20:08:17
Correct, it's a 137 anomaly in ERA5 on same base period of 1951-1980. After normalizing, that's 127.
2024-10-18 20:08:46
Last year's ERA5 anomaly was also around 10 higher than GISTEMP
2024-10-18 21:02:42
The anomalies for September are on average 10 higher in ERA5 vs. GISTEMP. It was also 10 last year. Not surprising, brother.
2024-10-18 21:03:08
patience, son
2024-10-18 22:11:12
When the world needed him most... he vanished
2024-10-18 22:27:19
Well, it's too bad but I guess no one's willing to fill me anymore. Been fun, guys.
2024-10-18 22:47:40
ERA5 anomaly for August was 131.5. Adjusting for historical, model projected like 128. Again, not hard to understand. On average, August is around 3 higher in ERA5 versus GISTEMP.
2024-10-18 22:49:03
There are no insiders silly, it's just that NOAA is back online after being down for 3 weeks due to Hurricane Helene.
2024-10-18 23:17:49
I mean I've explained that part in past comments in prior markets. Feel free to review for information. And it's not "sudden". It's because NOAA is back online.
2024-10-18 23:42:24
Aged well 👏
2024-10-18 23:43:13
Woah big payday for Teddykgb! Congrats 🎉👏
2024-10-19 03:59:15
His numbers are in line with other projectors, so that's not the case
2024-10-19 18:38:00
Will be released next week
2024-10-19 18:52:56
Ok
2024-10-19 21:46:19
🔥🔥🔥
2024-10-19 23:53:20
We're 19 days into the next month...
2024-10-20 02:24:28
It's a BOND
2024-10-20 03:42:37
Do you use Discord?
2024-10-20 05:12:54
I made comment in jest, but yes I hope so
2024-10-20 06:34:10
Emotional hedging
2024-10-20 20:52:31
fek why'd i sell sub-1c?
2024-10-20 22:28:31
Ggs
2024-10-20 22:28:55
Cooked, unless we get some insane late night shows
2024-10-20 22:29:31
Yeah but what was the day after Sunday?
2024-10-21 02:05:18
Not impossible but would require some insane late sales
2024-10-21 09:14:25
Odds here pretty whacky comapred to presidential
2024-10-21 09:23:23
Love these markets!
2024-10-21 10:28:45
imo odds for presidential should be like 45/55 and odds here should be 73/27
2024-10-21 10:49:02
What's the logic, there? Does not seem to be as much divide between the EC and PV this cycle, so it should not be that disparate.
2024-10-21 12:55:37
Wdym? Did someone say no divide? I think you're mixing up conversations.
2024-10-21 15:49:37
Final Value: 126
2024-10-21 15:51:19
Know when?
2024-10-21 16:20:34
It was already updated
2024-10-21 17:33:25
See everyone in the next market!
2024-10-21 19:56:57
All you can eat buffet rn
2024-10-22 01:26:03
The amendment won't pass lol
2024-10-22 19:43:03
What's happening???
2024-10-23 08:32:30
sounds like cope tbh
2024-10-23 22:42:21
Almost like Americans aren't single issue voters!
2024-10-23 23:33:24
@Cedarville Yeah, I'm a Democrat (and leftie). But I don't tow the party line on every single issue.
2024-10-24 04:13:15
*yawn* Can we just take this back to 70c? Enough of this price distortion nonsense.
2024-10-24 04:14:43
Over 1M in liquidity through that price, realistically could get filled for 10-20M. Where are ye Kamala Harris whales?
2024-10-24 04:44:18
Polls the last couple days have been pretty good for Harris, relatively speaking.
2024-10-24 05:07:11
I want to move onto bigger and greater things, tbh
2024-10-24 07:16:46
As always, thanks for donating =)
2024-10-24 07:17:37
Special thanks to Billy!
2024-10-24 20:01:44
Tough q
2024-10-24 23:09:09
@TheBillyBoy Sorry, but I'm drinking your tears, Billy Boy. Your tip is my sell order, possibly the last chance to exit if things continue going downhill 😉
2024-10-25 01:05:40
@TheBillyBoy It's a joke, I love you brother =)
2024-10-25 01:06:13
Bet still has plenty of room to end either way at this point
2024-10-25 08:28:50
I'd say more like 73% personally
2024-10-25 22:49:26
Where are the Osborn believers? I want MOAR Fischer!
2024-10-26 06:10:42
Amen
2024-10-26 19:39:59
I'd do 81c
2024-10-26 21:24:01
Can't wait for the plurality of Americans to vote for a convicted felon!
2024-10-26 22:14:49
Nope, I don't
2024-10-27 02:57:12
What?
2024-10-27 03:57:48
It's just how the values are rounded. You're thinking too hard.
2024-10-27 04:34:43
Feeling nervous yet, Billy?
2024-10-27 09:45:19
What's happening??
2024-10-27 10:04:36
what does that mean
2024-10-27 12:06:20
Hell yeah, Harris +4 from ABC/Ipsos! [link removed]
2024-10-27 19:51:55
We had pretty good polls today, don't understand the negative price movement
2024-10-28 01:40:36
It will be in 46.4 hours
2024-10-28 01:41:06
*yawn*
2024-10-28 01:42:21
Reminder that market will resolve in 46.4 hours, then we'll be able to redeem our shares
2024-10-28 03:14:20
There's a clear consensus, sorry
2024-10-28 03:14:27
Lol
2024-10-28 03:14:59
45 hours now before it resolves Yes
2024-10-28 03:17:00
The commit period will last for 24 hours, and the reveal for another 24 hours. Afterwards, the market will resolve to the consensus answer assuming it has met quorum. Meaning, in 45 hours, the market will resolve to Yes and shares can be redeemed.
2024-10-28 03:30:26
It will never be proposed Yes again, don't worry. Your shares will be redeemable for $0 once the dispute ends.
2024-10-28 03:35:21
Is this the Republican way these days? You can say whatever you want and then say "haha it's just a joke bro"? Was it also a joke when the rally speaker said "And these Latinos, they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country." Yes so hillarious!
2024-10-28 03:39:15
Sell your shares before they go to zero!
2024-10-28 03:59:49
No
2024-10-28 04:01:48
Ok, now you next!
2024-10-28 06:35:41
wild
2024-10-28 09:21:39
NYT/Sienna dropped shit
2024-10-28 10:14:34
NYT/Sienna: Fischer +2 (LV)
2024-10-28 10:14:43
Nebraska Senate 🟥 Fischer (inc): 48% 🟨 Osborn: 46%
2024-10-28 10:15:19
Also Osborn +1 (RV) though that isn't a big deal
2024-10-28 10:17:54
NYT/Sienna: Nebraska Senate 🟥 Fischer (inc): 48% 🟨 Osborn: 46% | TX Senate 🟥 Cruz (inc): 50% (+4) 🟦 Allred: 46%
2024-10-28 19:52:04
The rules definitely say consensus of internet retards, good point
2024-10-28 20:22:36
Seriously?
2024-10-28 20:44:41
"These Latinos, they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside."
2024-10-28 20:45:35
"Latinos, they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside."
2024-10-28 20:47:04
Seems pretty clear consensus to me
2024-10-28 21:14:12
Naw Ficher has it in the bag, maybe I won't buy more at this price tho
2024-10-28 23:05:21
The proof is NYT reported on it bro, chillax
2024-10-28 23:09:26
Confused how that's related to the market?
2024-10-28 23:27:50
What happened??
2024-10-29 04:38:36
It actually can just be proposed Yes again after dispute lol, so much sooner
2024-10-29 23:57:20
Time to get the lawsuit paperwork ready, folks! /s
2024-10-29 23:58:27
Dispute ends in 2 minutes
2024-10-30 00:05:40
Kiwi is out of money! WHEW
2024-10-30 00:10:19
ez money
2024-10-30 00:23:15
Dispute ended 23 minutes ago bro
2024-10-30 00:23:40
feel free to buy more if you insist Ig
2024-10-30 14:03:25
Lol today was the highest anomaly this year since early February
2024-10-30 20:36:18
My ERA5-only projection of GISTEMP went up to 136 with the latest data. Not feeling as bullish as earlier this month, but it'll be fairly close even if it doesn't make it.
2024-10-30 23:18:20
Feed me guys, I'm hungry
2024-10-31 03:25:13
Kamala bros will be in a world of hurt when results start rolling in on eday...
2024-10-31 04:43:11
I am! Queued up, baby!
2024-10-31 06:14:57
I'm Team TRUMP now baby
2024-10-31 08:23:21
No, I made a lot of money there lol
2024-10-31 12:21:49
Yeah I'm not bullish anymore, so sold
2024-11-01 04:30:03
It's so ogre
2024-11-01 04:54:50
We won guys!
2024-11-01 07:30:45
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/release_dates.html
2024-11-01 23:10:43
WHEW we are so back! Feed me more DRUMPF!
2024-11-02 08:50:42
Alright, this is a pretty insane pump
2024-11-02 09:46:52
well this is unironically higher than my odds tbh
2024-11-02 11:13:40
??? You do realize I made thousands on that market, right?
2024-11-02 11:20:34
😋 I'M STILL HUNGRY
2024-11-02 12:43:11
Can't tell if you're trolling or genuinely this stupid. Made like 3-6K on that market.
2024-11-02 20:30:13
Trump is likely to win the PV if he wins the EC, the divide will be a lot narrower this cycle. Seems to me Trump do well nationally and also sweep the Sun Belt. Pollsters that aren't herding like NYT/Sienna seem to confirm this phenomenon.
2024-11-02 22:45:33
ae -30K for the month news
2024-11-02 22:45:50
?
2024-11-03 00:08:45
I am no longer hungry, got indigestion after Selzer
2024-11-03 02:00:32
Oh God, im down 50K today it hurts so bad
2024-11-03 05:17:04
lol
2024-11-03 05:18:27
what's that, a drink?
2024-11-03 08:26:20
Why sell his pots of gold? Foolish libtard!
2024-11-03 08:26:28
Amen
2024-11-03 08:36:28
Selzer Spleshzer, sounds like a drink. What does she know?
2024-11-03 12:09:41
You mean Fredi?
2024-11-03 19:47:22
I queued 57c, you'll need to fill me. I'm an addict and I can't get enough
2024-11-03 19:48:52
Why?
2024-11-03 19:49:07
Same
2024-11-04 00:43:06
Yeah NBC, Emerson, YouGov, and NY Post all show a tied race. Almost every poll recently released has it tied.
2024-11-04 00:43:58
So NBC, Emerson, YouGov, and NY Post final polls all show a tied race nationally, but this market is at only 25c? Jeez.
2024-11-04 00:53:32
Yeah so why aren't we at 30c?
2024-11-04 01:06:52
Seems crazy to me, personally. Whatever, you'll see on eday potentially lol.
2024-11-04 01:14:00
I think it'll be red on eday, so was +EV to buy. And I think the real odds are around 30% rn.
2024-11-04 01:14:34
Yeah sell and re-invest seems great
2024-11-04 01:31:03
I don't think he's "set to win", just that he's more likely than not to win the PV if he wins the EC. About 30% or so, let's say. We may be seeing a situation where Rust Belt is close, but Trump performs very well elsewhere including Sun Belt and non-competitive states.
2024-11-04 07:01:47
Can't wait for you to be sweating your bags on e-day
2024-11-05 02:04:32
Really?
2024-11-05 07:17:43
I don't think how this meerkat is at 28c when Trump is 61c in the main market.
2024-11-05 07:48:59
Yes... And what odds is Harris for President in Nate's model? My point is that the odds for these two markets don't match.
2024-11-05 07:57:56
No. What part of this is hard to understand? Trump is 61c in the main market lol. This market has almost always figured a 50-60% chance of Trump winning PV if he wins EC. I believe main market should be higher for Harris and this one definitely should be higher for Trump.
2024-11-05 08:07:01
So you think Harris should be 39c to win the race?
2024-11-05 08:24:59
My point is so simple a toddler could understand it. If Trump is 61c in the main presidential market, he should be a lot higher than 26-27c in this market.
2024-11-05 08:26:02
?
2024-11-05 08:33:27
So why are you here instead of there? This market for Harris is at best neutral EV then, but main market is a whooping 25% lower than what you peg true odds to be.
2024-11-05 08:34:02
On my end, I think Trump here and Harris there are both +EV, so I own both
2024-11-05 08:38:29
What do you peg the odds to be then? Are you saying you think the odds are higher than what models suggest?
2024-11-05 21:17:17
Thank you magic school bus! Now an isekai world will have to deal with Drumpf instead...
2024-11-05 21:29:43
Osborn has little to no chance of winning lol
2024-11-06 01:40:46
Never forget I said this would go up
2024-11-06 03:03:32
mona lisa heavily coping now
2024-11-06 03:05:11
ty
2024-11-07 01:08:41
Buy more!
2024-11-07 01:12:33
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1854330478985191610
2024-11-07 01:12:45
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1854329131615539368
2024-11-07 12:56:01
Big if true
2024-11-07 12:59:44
nom nom nom
2024-11-08 01:19:02
Hasn't been called just yet
2024-11-08 01:21:34
The other pop vote market has been resolved haha
2024-11-08 02:23:36
Nice pump folks, but Gallego is almost assuredly the winner. One good batch is not enough to overcome the deficit.
2024-11-08 02:26:21
Not ever lol
2024-11-08 02:26:44
Unless the batches everywhere are all heavy R slanted
2024-11-08 02:46:05
??? Zero chance that it's as red as this drop lol
2024-11-08 03:09:37
common sense
2024-11-08 03:10:25
Not saying it won't be net R, but no chance the remaining Maricopa will be this red.
2024-11-09 01:08:44
cope
2024-11-09 01:13:25
I'll be laughing to the bank making 10% on my 100K! Free money =)
2024-11-09 02:07:26
I told you so!
2024-11-09 02:07:40
Maricopium
2024-11-09 02:10:45
Trading against MAGAts is like taking candy from a baby
2024-11-09 02:11:50
I have $100K on Gallego
2024-11-09 02:15:04
I've seen enough. Ruben Gallego (D) has won the US Senate seat in Arizona.
2024-11-09 02:17:47
Mb looks like I sold some at 93c, so it's $60K now.
2024-11-09 02:37:23
I admit I am retarded for not buying more at 75c
2024-11-09 02:39:55
woah!
2024-11-09 02:40:06
lol
2024-11-09 02:41:41
Nice bro
2024-11-09 02:42:07
That is a bad drop for Lake lol
2024-11-09 02:53:51
They don't
2024-11-09 02:54:34
Or rather, they don't favor her significantly enough to matter
2024-11-09 02:54:48
gg
2024-11-09 03:25:31
If you're still buying Lake here, I suggest you put an end to your suffering and move on.
2024-11-09 04:29:25
Not really. My only queue for Lake is at 2.1c. It's just kinda fun posting here, tbh.
2024-11-09 04:32:26
Where did all the Lake buyers here come from? Are you MAGA money? Curious. Personally, been here since 2021. How about you?
2024-11-09 04:41:19
January 2021 to be precise, first trade was on Biden inauguration. As expected, he was inaugurated a few days later.
2024-11-09 04:43:38
Yep, great site. I enjoy trading here =)
2024-11-09 04:52:51
So why didn't Harris win?
2024-11-09 07:27:06
Yes. Doesn't matter what political leanings we have, it's about making money. I may be a libtard, but I bet big on Florida 12+ and 8+ margin, which people thought unlikely. Made almost 150K. Bet according to the data, not your political beliefs and hopes.
2024-11-09 23:21:55
I'm afraid your side is the only one that will be feeling the six paths of pain...
2024-11-10 01:14:58
Alright guys, I'd like to buy another 50K Lake NO, could you help a brother out?
2024-11-10 01:16:34
?
2024-11-10 01:30:17
negrisk conversion
2024-11-10 01:58:57
Yeah, officially callable. No joke, I've actually seen enough now. Ruben Gallego (D) has won the AZ Senate seat in the 2024 General Election
2024-11-10 02:04:00
Yeah frankly doesn't matter. But yeah, the analysts were correct to say that remaining were Gallego-favorable. Regardless, this is now far beyond what Lake can overcome. It's over.
2024-11-10 02:05:03
[link removed]
2024-11-10 02:05:43
Called by DDHQ. Will be called by AP, NBC, Fox in the next 2 days, if not this weekend.
2024-11-10 02:12:40
Because this is certain. I don't doubt AP is correct for PA, but eacch decision desk has their own data and DDHQ probably did not reach that critical level of certainty.
2024-11-10 02:18:15
1. It's clearly over, that's why price went to 99c. 2. After price went to 99c, DDHQ called. Now it's really over.
2024-11-10 02:20:12
You can only convert N into Y in all other brackets, or N in multiple to Y in others + USDC. And yes.
2024-11-10 02:22:37
No, they haven't. I traded this across sites.
2024-11-10 02:24:58
You do realize... DDHQ called the race, right?
2024-11-10 03:58:45
Who cares about the courts
2024-11-10 06:46:24
Re-proposed, thanks
2024-11-11 01:01:20
Gimme moar STEEL
2024-11-11 02:21:50
Yeah, this is probably going to be called by the remaining outlets today or tomorrow.
2024-11-11 03:04:58
It'll be like 3% to the nearest % by the end, lol
2024-11-11 03:05:51
Because Lake is a complete trash candidate. The GOP would have been at 54 senate seats if they ran literally anyone else.
2024-11-11 04:20:26
Why are you emotionally invest in a whackjob winning? Jeez
2024-11-12 06:10:45
God speed brother
2024-11-12 07:56:39
;)
2024-11-12 08:13:05
Patience, shall resolve today
2024-11-12 10:44:18
GGs, see y'all again in 2026 when Kari Lake tries to run unsuccessfully a third time!
2025-02-22 02:07:44
Woah! I DM'd support and they fixed my acount. I can comment from aenews2 again now =)
2025-02-22 02:48:52
Sell pressure due to tight timeframe, not strange
2025-02-22 07:01:52
But do insiders control Kanye, or does Kanye control Kanye?
2025-02-22 08:27:21
I'm back in bidness
2025-02-22 10:52:39
I really don't get the logic of betting on Kanye to not delay, and count on next week being by Friday instead of Saturday. Do people not realize his track record with releasing?
2025-02-22 10:54:26
Yeah this, but unironically. I think I'll buy some more after I eat my midnight snack 😋
2025-02-22 11:12:57
Yeah. Even if he's unpredictable, I do agree next week is likely. But still a good chance of delay. And Friday/Saturday launches are common in this field, so even if on time, it could be Saturday March 1. 70 30 pricing is strange to me.
2025-02-22 11:13:24
I'm here!
2025-02-22 11:22:58
True. Rule 1 of Gambling: Never Panic Sell
2025-02-22 11:27:27
Obviously. So I agree it's more likely than not next week. But 65% Next Week, 35% Later. Saturday March 1 is at least 15% likely (out of the 65%), as Friday/Saturday launches are popular. Boom, odds should be 50/50, then! Maybe we should trust the madness more, but even then, maybe 40% or mid 30's at best. 30% flat seems obviously too low. The people in this market clearly haven't traded past Kanye markets. I've traded Donda 2. I even traded Kanye to File back on PredictIt. Kanye markets are flipadelphia.
2025-02-22 11:28:33
Yeah I did. Was 58c avg and sold net 43c between two accounts. But now I'm back in bidness, ok?
2025-02-22 11:30:32
I don't know if the "insiders" are watching, but we all know you guys had no idea about exact timeframe even if you knew it was launching soon. That may come to bite you in the 🍑. Everyone has seen you guys never double down even after the article posted. The gig's up 👆
2025-02-22 12:02:12
True, like Zyn. Speaking of which, he flipped again. Smart man 👨
2025-02-22 12:24:16
Semi-decent shot of Saturday. Friday/Saturday are popular launch days.
2025-02-22 12:34:37
Somewhere 35-40, will think further when I wake up.
2025-02-22 20:59:13
So is he uhh launching his own chain now?
2025-02-22 21:08:08
Why would this be bullish for Yes?
2025-02-22 21:11:54
Are you guy really gullible enough to believe this rando crypto degen who says Kanye's Twitter has been taken over?
2025-02-22 21:12:53
He's tweeting standard Kanye shit, seems like the pump of the day for a fake coin
2025-02-22 21:19:17
Eh. Not sure I want to trade this shit anymore. So stupid. But this launch seems like an obvious scam.
2025-02-22 21:31:40
These jokers are insane
2025-02-22 21:34:46
"I want to be just like you when I grow up"...?
2025-02-22 21:35:06
Would bet against that
2025-02-22 21:38:36
The guys who claim they're launching the coin, total scam 😆
2025-02-22 21:48:22
Don't rlly want to follow this 💩 anymore, so exiting
2025-02-22 21:52:00
This is just too retarded for me to follow
2025-02-22 21:58:24
Farewell, it's been a good run. I have better things to do than follow this 💩
2025-02-22 22:02:34
Correct. I've lost too many brain cells. Probably -EV to trade this market for the time lost.
2025-02-22 22:04:56
Don't want to think about Kanye anymore. Might change ny mind later, but this is incredibly stooopid
2025-02-22 22:09:21
I mean these latest sells are pretty neutral, but yeah obviously you try to trade and profit. Still down 35-40K on this market tho.
2025-02-22 22:15:26
What's wrong with you? Did you snort too much crack?
2025-02-22 23:53:04
Damn why'd I sell
2025-02-22 23:54:54
Yeah I'm addicted to this market like crack
2025-02-22 23:55:10
Good idea, maybe I'll buy back in
2025-02-22 23:55:25
Son is that you?
2025-02-23 02:12:56
Are we having fun?
2025-02-23 02:20:20
I need to make like 35K to break even, so...
2025-02-23 04:04:44
Well would depend on if Kanye launched the coin
2025-02-23 05:12:30
gg
2025-02-23 05:16:05
you tell me
2025-02-23 06:23:58
he can't help it
2025-02-23 06:24:29
When he posted, the insiders realized they messed up because it was delayed
2025-02-23 06:46:57
The insiders haven't been buying since the article came out days ago. They don't know the date and never did, just that he is prepared to launch a coin.
2025-02-23 06:56:22
Uhh yes, we know that lol
2025-02-23 06:59:16
Uhhh what? They almost all were market buying Yes. That is exactly how newbies trade! Of course, insiders do this too because they are noobs.
2025-02-23 12:42:58
It's the opposite, I held strong and sold fairly high. Many N whales sold at 20c and a few even worse. I held and sold at a 43c average. Most sells were at 50c when price for N recovered.
2025-02-23 12:43:18
What is wrong with you?
2025-02-23 12:43:51
I lost a little overall (so far), like 35K or so.
2025-02-23 13:45:43
Okay, no problem thanks
2025-02-24 00:38:14
Kinda bored rn, can we get one side to 60c already?
2025-02-24 00:38:47
yeah agreed
2025-02-24 00:46:47
Some solid liquidity on both sides, let's see some high conviction bets!
2025-02-24 00:49:55
?
2025-02-24 00:51:40
I don't know him
2025-02-24 02:27:26
YES I AM FEK
2025-02-24 02:28:04
I want shares =(
2025-02-24 02:30:15
Is that not self-explanatory? I do this!
2025-02-24 02:51:03
Start of 2024, I had something around 165K (?). Now I have 1.5Mish. Not exact figures. Maybe I made 80K or something in 2023 alone. So I guess there isn't relatively that much initial deposit.
2025-02-24 02:51:46
Started significantly trading prediction markets in 2020, and Polymarket started January 2021
2025-02-24 03:08:57
I'm excited to announce that I have joined Team Y in support of my good friend Zyn! He's one of the best traders I know, and I look forward to winning this bet together. God speed 🙏
2025-02-24 03:19:15
I was once the Top N holder, but Zyn has shown me the light
2025-02-24 04:47:32
He's a good friend, one of the best in this entire prediction market scene
2025-02-24 05:27:05
Taker only, not maker
2025-02-24 08:37:53
N was definitely underpriced before, but I'm surprised N is so strong now. No real information change. Hard to say what will happen.
2025-02-24 08:45:57
I need to go all in on Yes to make back what I lost when I sold my N 🙏
2025-02-24 08:48:42
Could you even pay it before this bet?
2025-02-24 08:49:38
Idts, this is the first time I'm net Y beyond 100 shares or w/e.
2025-02-24 08:54:32
If the price is right, bro. Always gotta reassess the odds, and bet accordingly. That is the path of the trader.
2025-02-24 08:58:11
If you say so, bro
2025-02-24 09:44:49
?
2025-02-24 10:14:07
I am
2025-02-24 19:14:55
Talked with Zyn, and we are currently regretting our life choices. Can we take price back to 50c for old time's sake?
2025-02-24 19:18:36
That's what I did. I accepted the N loss, and now can make some back on YES at least
2025-02-24 22:28:34
How do the 70c bonders feel rn
2025-02-24 23:05:09
He could be tweeting the launch or updates any time, don't know why you guys woulld buy at 65-75c and have your hearts racing for the next 4 days. Your shares can instantly go to 0.
2025-02-24 23:05:47
It's definitely ready to go, question is if Kanye presses the green button.
2025-02-24 23:08:18
You might want to right-click my profile...
2025-02-24 23:10:38
Yeah, and I was saying that at 30c for N as well, that he frequently delays his projects. I agree, but N is clearly overextended at this point.
2025-02-24 23:11:08
Plenty of narratives for both sides, very silly to say you don't see anything.
2025-02-24 23:39:39
The N price went below 30c after that, so I don't see your point.
2025-02-25 02:21:33
Pretty clear they knew a coin would be launched and didn't know date
2025-02-25 03:00:00
No lol
2025-02-25 03:00:32
True
2025-02-25 03:13:21
What is wrong with you
2025-02-25 03:13:52
Take it to 20c, and give me a heart attack. I want to suffer 😩
2025-02-25 03:14:27
I was scared when I held N. I'm not scared anymore.
2025-02-25 06:06:16
Some of the insiders and big ballers have been selling N, looks like we are so back 😍
2025-02-25 06:21:25
That seems bullish for Yes, because no one has traded this market worse than Zyn 😆
2025-02-25 06:22:10
He'll be back in the next couple days, ain't no way he disappears
2025-02-25 07:05:43
Nothing has changed, price is just creeping closer to FV.
2025-02-25 07:23:35
Looks like N bettors forgot that Kanye has other socials, and forgot his Twitter exits last for like two seconds.
2025-02-25 08:06:38
He literally posted a few hours ago lol, so no
2025-02-25 09:03:01
It's all the same. He also tweeted about merch, and we know the coin will have some relationship.
2025-02-25 22:21:21
Should I buy another 100K?
2025-02-25 22:22:00
He literally just talked about a coin in his latest post a few minutes ago lol, gl N holders
2025-02-25 22:23:48
[link removed]
2025-02-25 22:24:54
[link removed]
2025-02-25 22:25:29
No, this is why people started market buying Y in past 10 minutes
2025-02-25 22:29:25
?
2025-02-25 22:30:43
clearly cause you posted the same thing twice
2025-02-25 22:31:14
He literally just posted about a coin
2025-02-25 22:32:29
broken bot or broken human
2025-02-25 22:37:55
[link removed]
2025-02-25 22:38:06
[link removed]
2025-02-25 22:42:00
Looks like Kanye deleted. See picture for the original post.
2025-02-25 22:43:14
As a master of coins, Kanye was offering his advice to Drake
2025-02-25 22:43:48
It's bullish for Y because he is still posting about crypto and specifically coins.
2025-02-25 22:50:07
I mean. That is exactly what happened with Donda 2 market. It went from 1c to 100c last minute.
2025-02-25 22:55:40
Look, not saying Kanye is launching today. But it's obviously bullish for Y that Kanye just posted about a coin. Serious cope from Team N to say it doesn't matter.
2025-02-25 22:58:06
He posted on Instagram: [link removed]
2025-02-25 22:58:35
[link removed]
2025-02-25 22:59:03
Great, looks like someone else also grabbed the post. Good catch.
2025-02-25 23:00:34
Bullish for Yes. I agree N is favored, but this is obviously a good development, and it's cope to pretend otherwise.
2025-02-25 23:01:58
Drake When you do your coin Take 100% I’m taking %100 You are you You are the company Companies pay people salaries and bonuses not percentages That’s the difference of the old rap game and actual business Lyor ain’t given nobody a percentage - Kanye West
2025-02-25 23:02:47
I don't think that matters, but his IG post is bullish. He clearly has not forgotten about his coin or crypto.
2025-02-25 23:12:37
Because of the IG post about a Drake coin
2025-02-26 00:02:31
baddy is one of the "insider" Y accounts
2025-02-26 04:26:15
better 2800 than 100,000
2025-02-26 05:58:20
Why's the price dropping?
2025-02-26 06:00:02
It happened before with Donda 2, went from 1c to 100c.
2025-02-26 06:03:30
thanks!
2025-02-26 06:25:13
I give up, the insiders have won
2025-02-26 06:34:58
$12 of Y is all I can afford now
2025-02-26 06:45:42
Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back
2025-02-26 06:49:56
Yes, I'm broke. Now I can't afford Uber Eats.
2025-02-26 20:10:46
Please message me @aenews on Discord if you require an emotional support group
2025-02-26 20:11:01
You and me both, brother
2025-02-26 20:12:22
Patience, wait till Friday
2025-02-26 23:47:03
You're the insider bro, just DM the deats
2025-02-27 01:08:00
Same! Please have mercy, let me cash out at 30c at least...
2025-02-27 01:08:33
Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin launch, for the lols and for my pocketbook 🙏
2025-02-27 02:46:42
Market believes Kanye is a liar
2025-02-27 02:58:34
Good idea, will be getting my dispute ready
2025-02-27 06:49:11
Joining Zyn on this journey to zero has been one of the biggest mistakes of my entire prediction market career.
2025-02-27 07:18:53
Yes, easily
2025-02-27 07:25:32
gg
2025-02-27 07:45:20
Because it could still happen, never know. Just unlikely obvs.
2025-02-27 07:45:31
😭
2025-02-27 10:34:13
It's not too late to Martingale into N and make it all back. Let's do it 😟
2025-02-27 10:36:12
Kanye launched a coins in hearts and souls, you can't beat that 😭
2025-02-27 10:36:37
I think I already did
2025-02-27 20:29:12
Many mistakes
2025-02-27 20:49:38
Is he ramping up for release? He came back despite saying he'd be gone.
2025-02-27 20:50:23
Seems nuts to me to hold at 90c, is that really worth the heartache?
2025-02-27 20:56:59
What do you mean by extra yes? Multiple accounts?
2025-02-27 22:53:28
no need to lie bro
2025-02-27 23:32:21
Gotcha, thanks for explaining
2025-02-28 00:03:51
What is happening? I bought and then market immediately crashed 50c
2025-02-28 00:13:07
Looks like the scam pump is over
2025-02-28 01:03:19
so releasing the same docs that were previously available except with more black bar retractions is a yes??
2025-02-28 01:04:00
Everything was already public, and these new docs literally have more retracted than the ones we already had
2025-02-28 01:06:18
yeah
2025-02-28 01:25:54
Kanye is always full of surprises, let's never forget that
2025-02-28 02:03:58
Looks like no one will dispute, it's over and resolving in 1-2 hours
2025-02-28 02:19:54
Per the rules, “this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any previously classified, sealed, or unreleased files”. Despite having previously been leaked by Gawker, the “Contact Book” was a sealed document, and therefore qualifies for this market. Thus this market should resolve “Yes”.
2025-02-28 02:22:41
No this means the flight log doesn't count. They also clarified the market with names. Only names in the contact book will resolve Y today. The ones in the flight log will not resolve Yes.
2025-02-28 02:26:26
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-files-by-june-30/
2025-02-28 02:30:15
The rules are the same. From the clarification, we know that the flight log is not considered a "previously classified, sealed, or unreleased document". This is objectively true.
2025-02-28 02:34:37
???
2025-02-28 02:35:09
Are you claiming the Flight Log counts?
2025-02-28 02:41:40
Yes or No, dude
2025-02-28 02:53:20
Are you claiming the Flight Log counts, yes or no? According to the clarification, it does not count as a "previously classified, sealed, or unreleased file". This is objectively true and not up for debate.
2025-02-28 02:59:58
In the market for names, they counted the contacts book and did not count the flight log. This is what I'm referring to.
2025-02-28 03:11:00
If you really believe this, why don't you buy all the brackets in the other market that are 95c with names mentioned in the flight log?
2025-02-28 03:11:19
hmm
2025-02-28 03:17:07
fair point
2025-02-28 04:02:25
Yep, today was always the most likely day for him to launch. I agree it's unlikely just given the post frequency. But it's doable for sure. If I held N, I can't imagine holding at 95c.
2025-02-28 04:02:55
True
2025-02-28 04:52:57
I meant tomorrow obvs
2025-02-28 04:57:55
confused what that has to do with today vs tomorrow lol
2025-02-28 04:58:48
ftr tho I haven't even been selling Y, and barely buying, I am just battered and beaten, resigned to my fate
2025-02-28 06:23:41
Ggs
2025-02-28 10:33:17
It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new life. And I'm feeling good about Kanye dropping 😄
2025-02-28 13:03:07
So true. I blame Coindesk.
2025-02-28 13:03:39
Probably only 100K, two accounts
2025-02-28 13:34:12
Can't wait for the Great Flippening, the true destiny of every Kanye Market
2025-02-28 13:34:41
You should only use limit orders
2025-02-28 13:35:23
No need to migrate when he drops 😉
2025-02-28 13:36:08
Let's not forget that Coindesk didn't specify which Friday the launch was delayed to... 😯
2025-02-28 15:03:15
I don't even have sells below 80c, so you're right. It doesn't help in any way. I'm just coping, not really trying to boost price.
2025-02-28 17:29:32
Not for Kanye, but maybe for his coin launch team to get some free bonus checks!
2025-02-28 17:30:04
I want it to get cheaper so I can buy more tbh
2025-02-28 17:35:14
It's not
2025-02-28 17:36:30
Can you N guys take it to 99.7 again?
2025-02-28 17:36:39
I want to double my shares!
2025-02-28 18:00:30
?
2025-02-28 18:49:57
Like taking candy from a baby 🍭👶
2025-02-28 18:59:22
Wdym
2025-02-28 20:40:21
Why are you saying that?
2025-03-01 05:31:53
It's the 28th in most of the country. Why are people proposing? I'm a N guy, but obviously Y has a few more hours for another incident, at least. Probably need to wait until next day to ensure everything is updated.
2025-03-01 05:48:46
In fact, almost everywhere in US outside East Coast, lol. Central Time, Mountain Time, Pacific Time, Alaska/Hawaii/etc.
2025-03-02 03:55:52
🔥🔥🔥
2025-03-03 18:46:40
So far for the 3 days, it's been hotter than last year's avg actually. Too early to know.
2025-03-03 23:36:13
No. They have not.
2025-03-03 23:43:29
It's not rocket science, and a lot of people are misunderstanding. It's not that events in the timeframe don't count. It's that events reported on FAA before creation don't count. If an incident dated February 18-24 were to be retroactively added and specify an evacuation or unconventional exit, then it would have counted.
2025-03-04 02:34:04
The rest of us figured that out a long time ago, no offense 😉
2025-03-06 05:24:27
They were definitely dropped on the head as a baby... 👶
2025-03-06 06:06:15
?
2025-03-06 15:28:35
What are people even betting on, here? You can buy March 5 Executive Order for 3c right now if you're so confident.
2025-03-06 15:32:43
Yeah, makes sense. Weird.
2025-03-06 20:04:32
Lol
2025-03-06 20:04:59
Looks like the Y pumpers won't even get a shot to try their pump
2025-03-08 22:18:29
Nice, too late at this point. It's over. Gg tice-nits
2025-03-08 22:19:34
The brackets are already resolving, so it's over. You didn't dispute one in time, so would be a waste of your money to dispute the rest. If you want to do it anyways tho, I'm sure the proposers will appreciate the donation.
2025-03-08 22:20:16
The honest answer is gg
2025-03-09 00:23:10
shouldn't we buy the rest of that 600K share block?
2025-03-09 00:45:41
Fight fight fight!
2025-03-09 01:08:48
gotta make it all back somehow
2025-03-09 01:47:51
If you can't even take this market to 1c, UMA willl not take you seriously
2025-03-09 01:50:06
Yeah doubt you'd buy the 2M shares at 0.1c. Not worth it.
2025-03-09 02:01:41
*le gasp*
2025-03-09 20:30:35
Ok this post really needs the /s attached
2025-03-10 05:40:19
Wdym
2025-03-10 05:40:57
Another month, another insider trading comment
2025-03-10 05:46:38
NASA will be publishing the update in 9.3 hours. My contacts have informed me the final anomaly is 125. See everyone next month!
2025-03-10 16:18:09
Yeah, should actually be released tomorrow if no delays.
2025-03-10 16:33:40
He no longer works at UMA
2025-03-10 20:42:07
Sold my N shares. Good luck to everyone...
2025-03-10 23:01:55
Polymarket decided not to clarify
2025-03-10 23:02:50
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" - Albert Einstein
2025-03-11 10:37:10
I was being sarcastic
2025-03-11 18:16:05
[link removed]
2025-03-11 18:16:51
It was reported that US/Ukraine agreed to finalize a comprehensive deal as soon as possible.
2025-03-11 18:17:40
[link removed]
2025-03-11 18:19:23
No, but implies that deal finalization should be soon
2025-03-11 18:21:41
? No idea what you're talking about, but that's irrelevant to market
2025-03-11 18:22:39
This implies it would be signed soon. See the full statement.
2025-03-11 18:40:23
Never know, yeah. Definitely looks very good, tho.
2025-03-11 18:59:45
Reading comprehension issue on your part
2025-03-11 19:36:54
Thanks!
2025-03-12 22:13:21
Did he say Ireland when he was off the mic?
2025-03-12 22:21:27
Yeah briefly looked and he did not, gg
2025-03-12 22:27:52
Would be funny if everyone miscounted
2025-03-12 22:28:59
Are you sure?
2025-03-12 22:29:30
Better not be another Venezul-we
2025-03-12 22:31:42
Hope I don't go broke, but if everyone is buying must be right
2025-03-13 20:50:37
Ggs? Is there a counterargument?
2025-03-13 22:40:02
Damn, I should have sold at 45c
2025-03-13 22:49:55
Either way, tho. EVven then I could have gotten cheaper.
2025-03-14 07:04:27
Nom nom nom 😋
2025-03-14 20:29:56
Whew some serious swinging
2025-03-14 20:42:20
It was a good dream
2025-03-14 20:53:58
I really should have sold when it was at 40, definitely got a bit greedy
2025-03-14 20:56:01
Yep, cloture is a gg at least. But we'll see.
2025-03-14 20:58:33
Pretty sure it's the first
2025-03-14 21:01:07
?
2025-03-14 21:45:33
Dammit even my sells are bad
2025-03-14 22:10:20
I would not go that far
2025-03-14 22:13:36
Who cares about the lapse, tbh. Can we just discuss how cute little X was when he was boarding the plane with Trump?
2025-03-14 22:24:50
Imagine thinking Trump doesn't have a printer
2025-03-14 22:31:59
old news, we knew this since the morning
2025-03-14 22:44:21
Why is price going up 10c after I sell Y?
2025-03-14 22:45:40
Rip
2025-03-14 23:14:17
This was always the bet, + odds of bill failing
2025-03-14 23:20:25
oops he's not there
2025-03-14 23:35:12
I'm so bad at trading
2025-03-14 23:36:36
Can you guys stop liking this comment?
2025-03-14 23:39:13
It's too late for me, hopefully you can still save yourself
2025-03-15 02:50:39
smart
2025-03-15 02:54:26
correct
2025-03-15 02:54:55
unfortunately also correct
2025-03-15 03:12:32
Sold my shares, gl everyone
2025-03-15 04:00:40
imagine he signed already, however, they told media not to leak as they want to make a face ceremony about it, him signing something that he officialy already signed. lol
2025-03-15 04:30:05
This is a funding lapse market bro
2025-03-15 04:41:35
Correct. But we'll need to wait until later today to find out.
2025-03-15 05:24:27
Dumbass Meatball Ron filled me up, so I'm back in the game
2025-03-15 05:31:55
he's very dumb for market selling, total noob move!
2025-03-15 07:33:23
Yeah it's currently determined by the time of signature
2025-03-15 07:48:28
Well I definitely mistraded. I think I'll end market in green tho, so long as I don't lose now.
2025-03-15 07:49:06
Okay, I queued. I need a good price to justify wading back in for more
2025-03-15 08:02:27
Dumb fellow
2025-03-15 08:02:52
You should have seen how much he lost on Kanye, he kept flipping and losing!
2025-03-15 08:03:20
Naw I lost 100K. Zyn lost way more.
2025-03-15 10:28:08
Oh God please don't tell me this is the next Kanye Coin
2025-03-15 10:32:46
Maybe we're smart, or maybe we're hive minding. Only time will tell.
2025-03-15 10:32:57
Yikes
2025-03-15 10:35:05
???
2025-03-15 10:38:57
Big if true
2025-03-15 10:39:32
Because you think it's worth 98c
2025-03-15 19:22:02
Gm, darn looks like I sold too early
2025-03-15 19:22:32
It disputes the Yes proposal
2025-03-15 19:22:45
😔
2025-03-15 19:23:18
No, there's no choice. It's just disputing the proposal.
2025-03-15 19:24:33
If as a N shareholder, you believe it shouldn't resolve Y. Then you could dispute the Y proposal. Then it goes up to a vote in UMA. I'll warn that you'd be burning your money, tho.
2025-03-15 19:25:32
That is not possible. You can only dispute.
2025-03-15 20:20:36
N will never hit double digits again
2025-03-15 20:32:43
Probably, they are all brokies
2025-03-15 20:35:15
Take it to 10c if you dare, peasant
2025-03-15 22:39:52
Has nothing to do with this market
2025-03-16 00:36:17
Trump is a senile sleepy old man just like Joe
2025-03-16 00:36:52
Congrats! Only need to bond another 100 markets like this to make back Kanye 😭
2025-03-16 00:37:28
Agreed. They went from 0% to 0%
2025-03-16 01:13:46
Delusional
2025-03-16 01:16:11
I agree entirely, thanks Lance
2025-03-16 01:22:39
You burned your money for no reason
2025-03-16 04:06:21
No
2025-03-16 04:08:13
He signed the EO's aboard Airforce One because he brought them with him. The bill wasn't passed until after he left, so he did not have it immediately on hand to sign. He doesn't like auto-pen, and there wasn't an immediate need.
2025-03-16 04:49:27
ggs
2025-03-16 07:32:05
i have some juicy 0.2c for you
2025-03-17 05:23:35
This bet is just starting, I think you're confused
2025-03-17 19:44:01
No, it's just getting started now. You are confused.
2025-03-17 23:17:20
can't wait for the fireworks... and tears
2025-03-18 01:25:15
ggs, I proposed if anyone wants to dispute. But it's clearly over.
2025-03-18 01:35:54
Idgi
2025-03-18 01:43:48
How'd you know? Were you tipped off by 99c shares?
2025-03-18 07:47:47
Can someone hold my hand? I'm scared... 😰
2025-03-18 07:48:47
Only if I can do 69c, don't want to sell at a loss...
2025-03-18 09:36:22
Do I need to? Seems like the end of Korean democracy if he isn't out...
2025-03-18 09:36:47
I hope not
2025-03-18 09:37:02
Please no
2025-03-18 10:24:07
Betting 99K to win 1K is great. Y'all smoking crack
2025-03-18 10:28:02
I didn't lose yeyt
2025-03-18 10:28:12
i dont wanna sell at loss
2025-03-19 10:49:29
Please Lord forgive me for my greed. Forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Let Yoon be vanquished by the courts this month, for the lols and for my pocketbook.
2025-03-19 11:13:45
Not selling at an L bro
2025-03-20 01:01:24
Please buy more 🙏
2025-03-20 02:33:22
This article has been removed at the request of the press.
2025-03-20 02:33:44
Welp
2025-03-20 10:10:13
You do?
2025-03-22 20:46:31
There's no clear fart, that's why ✌
2025-03-23 02:40:04
Let's not forget the Golden Rule, the side that comments more always loses the dispute
2025-03-23 02:40:55
You can still join other servers like Poly Square and CSP
2025-03-23 02:43:41
One way trip to 100c!
2025-03-23 09:18:18
Didn't you say you were gonna propose this Yes?
2025-03-23 22:14:15
Nom nom nom
2025-03-23 22:22:40
Nom nom nom
2025-03-24 00:04:50
Thanks for filling me even more!
2025-03-24 00:19:24
?
2025-03-24 00:19:39
How do you know I'm not hedged?
2025-03-24 00:42:28
Definitely not, Y is an underdog
2025-03-24 00:50:51
P2 Yes at 40%, impressive
2025-03-24 00:53:42
It's already rock bottom
2025-03-24 00:54:05
Legimitately is impressive
2025-03-24 01:09:25
I'd bet the over
2025-03-24 05:15:06
P2 is getting close to tied, price is rather low given the unprecedented situation
2025-03-24 05:50:52
Yeah that's kinda dumb imo
2025-03-24 09:14:36
?
2025-03-24 17:06:26
Trump said it'll be signed soon, like 10 minutes ago
2025-03-24 17:40:10
Remember last night when I said this could still happen, and everyone laughed?
2025-03-24 17:45:51
Not saying this meets the mark, only that we can see progress
2025-03-24 22:36:50
Did I sell too soon?
2025-03-25 00:33:57
I warned people yesterday in comments that it was unprecedented situation. Everyone laughed when I bought more Y shares.
2025-03-25 00:52:29
Because they clarified after everyone had already voted. That is why unprecedented. It's too late to affect the vote.
2025-03-25 00:53:00
No, clarifications are close to binding. Issue is the timing.
2025-03-25 00:55:12
Only 1 market is relevant there, the others are not. No one was aware of these before Thonker (blacksky) posted. FTR Thonker is also the one who instigated 50Pence (ecash) to propose Yes. It was an elaborate scheme by him to "test the system".
2025-03-25 04:03:01
He has said that publicly on Discord
2025-03-25 19:17:49
Nom nom nom
2025-03-25 19:28:05
I'm not, just woke up. I missed the earlier action in this market and the other land/sea market.
2025-03-25 22:40:42
Who are you?
2025-03-25 22:41:22
I don't understand the logic, but feel free to keep buying N, I guess?
2025-03-26 00:22:37
The other market resolved already, and yes the event did happen.
2025-03-26 11:03:29
Oh God what I done...
2025-03-26 11:07:59
?
2025-03-26 11:09:09
One of the biggest regrets in my life is putting 100k into this market
2025-03-27 20:36:42
Buy more, pls
2025-03-27 20:53:30
Instead of putting their foot down for energy, they clarified... To correct a typo lol 😆
2025-03-28 04:33:54
Coindesk is literal retards lol, highly inaccurate article
2025-03-28 04:34:58
This is a better researched article from one of the N guys: https://mrozi.substack.com/p/05m-scam-on-the-mineral-deal-market
2025-03-28 04:38:18
*insert dancing Pepe GIF 💃*
2025-03-28 04:41:33
Already did bro, look at my position on Yoon 💀
2025-03-28 04:42:39
Need to dispute both markets next time if you disagree with something
2025-03-28 21:12:51
Thanks for the 18c Billions shares! 😃
2025-03-28 21:14:59
Yeah was surprised someone was filling me last night... I'll take it 😉
2025-03-28 21:26:04
Insane
2025-03-29 00:23:09
Billions is 9, only needs one more lol
2025-03-29 00:23:56
Damn you Dropper 😩
2025-03-29 04:53:50
We're compiling the documents and rationale as we speak, wagmi
2025-03-30 22:50:15
Hi
2025-03-31 06:12:57
Umm what?
2025-03-31 06:13:19
No
2025-03-31 19:04:56
There's nothing that would indicate recognition, just more of the same.
2025-03-31 19:09:27
Just use a timestamped link
2025-03-31 19:17:11
Ain't checking that. Copy and paste the timestamped link.
2025-03-31 23:09:07
It'll cost $3000 to dispute, actually. 4 * $750
2025-04-01 03:06:44
Why is this not a bond? What's the rationale for N?
2025-04-01 03:07:03
Unless it's disputed
2025-04-01 04:02:53
2 hours to dispute!
2025-04-01 04:17:16
How can he be President when he was arrested? Ez dubs for Y! /s
2025-04-01 04:21:48
If disputed, would take almost 3 days. Otherwise, will resolve in 1.7 hours.
2025-04-01 04:31:31
Unlikely it is disputed
2025-04-01 04:32:16
re-read the comment slowly, retard
2025-04-01 04:41:21
2.8 days before redeemable, if disputed. Doubtful that happens tho
2025-04-01 04:48:03
sucks to suck, happens
2025-04-01 04:49:23
hope you saw the /s bro
2025-04-01 06:10:50
patience, young grasshopper
2025-04-01 06:11:07
Can't wait to redeem for $0
2025-04-01 06:21:01
sometime today, sooner rather than later
2025-04-01 06:26:04
same
2025-04-01 07:17:37
patience, young padawan
2025-04-01 07:25:00
Redeemable, ggs
2025-04-01 07:25:10
Hope I make it all back on May
2025-04-01 07:25:18
Time to Martingale?
2025-04-01 11:39:01
What is the rationale of buying N? If they meant to acquit, it would have dragged on longer than this...
2025-04-01 11:41:26
I want to make it all back this month
2025-04-01 12:35:40
Car rn probably: it's 35% what's going on!
2025-04-01 12:38:16
Yes, the Korean whales are biased and listen to propaganda probably
2025-04-01 12:39:11
I'll make it all back in this market bro, sometimes you just need to Martingale until it works out
2025-04-01 12:40:39
Why? Idgi
2025-04-01 12:42:23
Yatsen, 1.6M P/L has just bought 192K shares. Good luck to the propoganda-sipping Korean whales 🐳
2025-04-01 12:44:22
N guys can't even do basic math, no wonder they're losing.
2025-04-01 13:41:23
No
2025-04-01 21:11:10
Wrong data
2025-04-01 21:35:49
Oh I agree it's not looking hot, just mean that's a poor comparison
2025-04-01 23:27:34
Can you guys let me out at 8c? Pls
2025-04-01 23:30:54
Tbh might be pretty reasonable with latest returns?
2025-04-01 23:35:39
Meh
2025-04-02 00:37:15
I'm straight, sorry
2025-04-02 00:38:55
Y was such good value that even 5M of buys from propoganda nuts could not keep it down lmao
2025-04-02 00:57:04
Yes
2025-04-02 01:00:00
The avg N buyer believes in the "4-4 on 4-4" conspiracy theory lol
2025-04-02 01:04:49
Yeah, they ran out of money so price found its way back up.
2025-04-02 09:03:22
Yep. As soon as that was redeemable, that's when price plunged. Now it's more normal though still slightly depressed.
2025-04-02 10:07:17
Because the market can't entirely forget these turbo blasters
2025-04-02 23:46:14
The quality of some of these E/R posts is so bad. Audio glitches due to network streaming? Not possible on 4 independent streams. Camera shutter sound effect? Wut, obviously false if it's on different streams.
2025-04-02 23:49:35
No that is an obviously bad argument. Some of these are entirely different angles.
2025-04-03 00:02:42
Possibly. I'm just calling out the bad arguments.
2025-04-03 00:21:07
Yea I'm not saying P1 is wrong. I just think there are some dumb arguments people are making.
2025-04-03 01:07:13
Nice shtick carjunior
2025-04-03 02:16:15
Nothing has materially changed from when market was at 50/50. Let's take it back there!
2025-04-03 02:17:08
Guess LadyGungHee and SickDuck chickened out. Why would they be buying millions of dollars at 50c and not willing to buy at 25c?
2025-04-03 02:36:00
Party's over, it seems
2025-04-04 05:58:10
I remember when all the N guys were gloating and saying it was obvious Yoon would come back. Wonder how they feel after a unanimous 8-0 ruling...
2025-04-04 08:18:01
Buy more
2025-04-04 08:21:56
I'm at 87c
2025-04-04 08:23:35
Let's get a new market for 140!
2025-04-04 08:31:16
Why does everyone doubt Minecraft? Everyone loves Minecraft! Just a question of if it hits 130M, 140M, or 150 tbh 🏆
2025-04-04 10:47:53
You literally own N? That proves my point lol
2025-04-04 12:42:48
No, it was doubted this whole market. Only rose yesterday, starting the previous night.
2025-04-04 12:45:29
Alright, I pretty much have at this point. Maxed out all lower brackets and took the highest up a few cents.
2025-04-04 20:58:44
I sold, ty poo
2025-04-04 21:09:34
Woah what a push
2025-04-04 22:30:20
Thanks for the donation
2025-04-05 01:14:11
why
2025-04-05 01:51:43
no
2025-04-05 01:53:09
misread as out by midnight
2025-04-05 01:56:24
That's a fat chimmy chunga
2025-04-05 02:01:26
Hope they put up a 140-150M market
2025-04-05 03:13:21
Where's muh EO =(
2025-04-05 03:27:36
no
2025-04-05 03:57:18
HODL TO 100!
2025-04-05 04:02:44
Lol no
2025-04-05 04:07:07
Please take it to 40, so I can reload and buy MORE
2025-04-05 04:08:31
This market is certainly not for the faint of heart 💔
2025-04-05 04:25:16
Yeah I'm bored, guess we'll see tomorrow
2025-04-05 04:43:36
No, it's a victory for commonsense. People are not entitled to 50X returns on a random sound that isn't even a fart.
2025-04-05 10:10:05
Agreed
2025-04-05 10:12:35
Better question is 140M, 150M, or 160M now
2025-04-05 10:15:23
Incorrect. It does not resolve tomorrow to N
2025-04-05 11:11:19
No lol, it closes if there's no case of ambiguity. If there's ambiguity, then it stays open until the Federal Register updates. I know this for sure as I remember when Polymarket adjusted the ruleset.
2025-04-05 22:20:48
I hope Polymarket clarifies! I want them to do so, because this is obviously intended to stay open if there's ambiguity on if an EO was signed by the deadline.
2025-04-05 22:21:17
I don't even want UMA to decide this market. I want Polymarket to determine it.
2025-04-06 23:31:44
Once FR updates with the next date after, then we'll know whether or not any was signed on the 4th
2025-04-07 02:28:22
Sucks we never got a 150M or 160M market... Would have cleaned up shop buying against the Minecraft deniers
2025-04-07 04:10:14
Ggs
2025-04-07 04:26:16
South Sudan
2025-04-07 19:54:17
If there's still no EO, the market will be closed when the Federal Register updates with EO's dated after the 4th.
2025-04-08 04:37:03
Gotta wait for FR
2025-04-08 20:19:51
What's your Discord?
2025-04-09 01:45:47
Oh my God, why are we even arguing? Seems an easy one
2025-04-09 03:03:18
😏
2025-04-09 08:57:29
???
2025-04-10 11:45:02
This is due to negrisk. I am net the 137-1.41 bracket atm.
2025-04-10 17:33:20
Negrisk converting shares
2025-04-11 05:53:16
No
2025-04-11 05:53:24
It isn't
2025-04-11 05:53:41
yea you were cached
2025-04-12 10:43:06
Ggs. Shout-out to Cronus66 for fighting the good fight and helping Team Y get fills 😁
2025-04-12 20:39:15
💀
2025-04-12 21:00:52
It's over bro, time to move on
2025-04-13 02:03:18
Ggs
2025-04-13 05:20:26
[link removed]
2025-04-13 05:22:10
Stop filling me and burning your money, 2.8 days till resolution to Yes
2025-04-13 06:44:09
No... 3 actually lol
2025-04-13 09:22:30
Rooting for 18-21, personally 😁
2025-04-13 09:29:19
Did you blink and miss that 3 markets have resolved already?
2025-04-13 09:49:27
Yes
2025-04-13 11:37:00
Free money is free. Dunno why you'd throw your money into the furnace, but I thank you? I guess? Your money, not mine. Err well it will be mine, I spose. Anyways, delusional when this has already been resolved three times in the other markets.
2025-04-13 11:37:54
Most rational comment here I've seen today
2025-04-13 11:40:09
Y'all will never convince UMA to ignore 3 already resolved markets, especially when you can't even take this to 50c! 😃 In all seriousness though, stop lighting your money on fire 🔥 and move on...
2025-04-13 12:25:44
Mocking? I am literally warning you guys that you are wasting your money. I don't even gain anything from doing that 😒
2025-04-13 12:29:19
The decision has already been made. The moment to fight it is before three markets resolved. Also, most of you guys are simply buying 0-1c shares as lottos and hoping to 100X. While not all N holders, this fits most N folks who are now spamming the comments.
2025-04-13 20:02:42
Phew
2025-04-13 20:16:20
*yawn*
2025-04-13 20:16:46
UMA and/or Polymarket if clarified
2025-04-13 20:33:47
I can't buy forever. Eventually, I'll run out of money 💸
2025-04-14 00:20:55
Pulled all my 99.0c orders, I am scared for my life /s
2025-04-14 00:58:44
lol I have never voted on UMA
2025-04-14 01:04:53
The only scammers here are the ones pushing N to make a 100X
2025-04-14 02:12:23
enough is enough
2025-04-14 03:44:00
Finally, some peace and quiet around here. In a day, we'll see the blowout vote results.
2025-04-14 05:28:07
masochist
2025-04-14 05:29:00
🍑💨
2025-04-14 05:33:28
re-invest
2025-04-14 07:55:45
Thanks
2025-04-14 08:51:23
Because it's worth 0
2025-04-14 09:22:33
?
2025-04-14 11:25:20
All hands on deck!
2025-04-14 21:06:01
Bro, voting is almost over. Almost everyone has already voted.
2025-04-14 21:09:45
I'm scared out of my mind 😰
2025-04-14 21:09:55
Agreed, every vote counts ✅
2025-04-14 22:12:51
"Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify." Yes, the 125% tariff that specifically targeted China was removed for this category of electronics. It's not rocket science.
2025-04-15 00:09:51
Bruh the expected value is 0
2025-04-15 00:20:14
[link removed]
2025-04-15 07:03:49
wtf is wrong with you
2025-04-15 08:37:08
In a shocking turn of events, market resolves the same as the other 3 markets. How could we have ever predicted this?
2025-04-15 08:41:33
?
2025-04-15 17:46:25
Not an issue for this bet. If Polymarket were deciding, it wouldn't have ended differently.
2025-04-15 18:03:14
The folks arguing N/P4 are misinterpreting the rules, which require China-specific tariffs to be lowered and not just the global 10% tariffs. The 125% China tariff was dropped for this category of electronics. So market is resolvable.
2025-04-15 20:07:11
Not what the rules are calling for. There needs to be a lowering of China-specific tariffs. This happened. The reason for this is to make sure the market doesn't resolve off changes to the 10% global tariff. If there's any lowering of tariffs specific to China (e.g. the 125% tariff) then it counts regardless of other countries benefiting.
2025-04-15 20:08:35
Likewisd, when Trump dropped the reciprocal tariffs for all countries, they all resolved Y (except China since it remained). Even though that a sweeping global change, it did not matter. Because what matters is the tariffs individual to the countries being lowered.
2025-04-15 21:51:09
Markets are always open until resolved, unless they are axed early on
2025-04-15 22:11:56
Well you're right that I'd have made more money. But it's just incorrect, and I wouldn't want to buy losing shares. But you are (unintentionally) hitting the nail on the head. If there was "rigging" or w/e, it would be far, far more profitable to push N not Y.
2025-04-15 22:17:47
Oh I get that. But others do unironically think it because they really have not thought it through like you.
2025-04-15 22:20:15
Fair enough, makes sense. And I've always agreed there is a valid argument. But it is the weaker interpretation (in my opinion), from the start. And after 3 markets have resolved, the weaker opinion will not win in the last unresolved market.
2025-04-15 23:33:33
That makes very little sense if you think about it for more than two seconds
2025-04-16 00:10:18
Yeah it'll take longer. Will resolve eventually tho.
2025-04-16 00:18:21
???
2025-04-16 00:20:23
Why are people still buying?
2025-04-16 02:00:42
wdym, you know it's over right? lol
2025-04-16 02:36:09
Wth why'd someone take this to 66c? I got filled
2025-04-16 02:56:31
I want my money =(
2025-04-16 03:21:15
I think this is the longest I've ever seen for a dispute to settle. come on!
2025-04-16 03:35:51
Wdym? That never happened lol. You must be confused.
2025-04-16 03:39:00
Same
2025-04-16 07:31:04
I don't think so tbh
2025-04-16 07:50:29
Would actually be really funny if I woke up to see this at 50/50 tbh 😏
2025-04-16 07:55:34
Would be pretty cool, could buy even more cheap
2025-04-16 08:26:31
Because the issue was fixed, and that is viewable on chain
2025-04-16 08:26:51
I knew too but I had no money to buy with
2025-04-16 08:28:30
See y'all in the next tariff market ✅
2025-04-16 10:23:22
No
2025-04-16 10:23:39
Thanks!
2025-04-18 20:39:47
#nevertrustjatinder
2025-04-19 04:28:45
Dumb
2025-04-19 22:09:02
#neverfadejatinder
2025-04-19 22:40:51
Easy money, should have aped this earlier
2025-04-20 02:13:35
But he was right, no?
2025-04-20 03:39:31
Still will take 3 hours to resolve, if no dispute
2025-04-20 04:00:11
You're asking someone to light $750 on fire 🔥
2025-04-20 04:00:59
Gg, I do hope they manage a ceasefire
2025-04-20 04:02:38
We all know it's coming, there's nothing people love more than throwing their in the incinerator 👷
2025-04-20 04:03:40
This one was just clarified by Polymarket, so traders did not decide
2025-04-20 04:05:49
I mean I hope Russia and Ukraine manage to get a ceasefire this year
2025-04-20 08:26:33
Lol
2025-04-20 19:34:32
Price may never reach 1c again, sadly
2025-04-21 13:10:28
Mrozi opposed minerals tho
2025-04-21 13:31:17
[link removed]
2025-04-21 13:35:53
How about this one: [link removed]
2025-04-21 19:59:13
Regardless of the decision, I like that we're getting clear communication and a clarification from Polymarket.
2025-04-21 20:23:44
Yep
2025-04-21 20:24:14
Possibly, though that is also a decision and in line with feedback
2025-04-22 20:43:03
Easy money
2025-04-23 03:34:04
The sharps will make millions betting on Chad Carney 🔒
2025-04-23 03:41:29
Yes, Chad Carney 💪
2025-04-23 03:41:46
Keep telling yourself that! 💯
2025-04-23 10:42:08
New market with better range: https://polymarket.com/event/april-2025-temperature-increase-c-lower-ranges?tid=1745404875970
2025-04-23 10:42:28
Since this current one is dead
2025-04-24 10:45:03
The recession waits for no man. The dollar is going to ZERO 😱
2025-04-24 12:16:51
Well I and others argued, and Polymarket clarified it wasn't enough. So we're stuck on N now, unless there's a big change with further audits.
2025-04-24 20:57:42
Please do
2025-04-25 00:54:42
wut? I am literally negative in the market because I had Y
2025-04-25 04:53:29
Did you just admit defeat?
2025-04-25 08:06:29
Ggs, Pakistan has now reported as well, and so has global media. Clear consensus.
2025-04-25 10:44:24
Lol
2025-04-25 10:46:47
People need to make up their mind
2025-04-25 10:49:39
There is no ambiguity here. Even AP reported, as did both India and Pakistan lol
2025-04-25 10:54:11
You don't have shares?
2025-04-25 10:57:27
😊👌🏾
2025-04-25 20:06:47
Nothing through the current time counts
2025-04-25 20:08:31
Cool. Everyone agrees it's possible by end date lol. The clarification does not help you at all tho. It confirms what doesn't count. Artillery strikes always counted.
2025-04-27 02:53:00
Big if true
2025-04-27 20:34:58
Damn, never underestimate Minecraft ✌
2025-04-28 17:50:02
Thank you to President Trump for locking this up on election day! 🔒
2025-04-28 17:51:50
I'm not from Canada, but there's no reason to believe libs will lose given the data we have
2025-04-28 17:52:36
Yes, of course! 🔒
2025-04-29 03:18:22
what's happening why are people buying pierre?
2025-04-29 03:23:58
I'm so confused, but w/e. I bonded like 1M across my accounts.
2025-04-29 03:24:11
So confused... I bonded 1M across my accounts
2025-04-29 03:27:06
can you guys buy more?
2025-04-29 05:44:01
At least Team Y has a last opportunity to dump before this goes to 0
2025-04-29 08:19:45
This market was such a wild ride, but it was a good time. See y'all in the other markets and future elections. If you lost, don't let it deter you. After all, you win some, you lose some.
2025-04-29 10:12:27
Not actually sure! Maybe it's resolvable now or sometime soon? Some think we need to wait longer than that tho.
2025-04-29 10:12:41
😊👌🏾
2025-04-29 10:12:55
Thanks! 😄
2025-04-29 19:34:56
Sweet gains 💪 Never underestimate the trade war! 😄
2025-04-29 20:22:23
Nope. Folks bought it this morning due to Atlanta update
2025-04-30 05:58:20
Dispute time?
2025-04-30 06:06:54
thought it would get disputed, ah well
2025-04-30 11:27:53
Amazing
2025-04-30 22:26:21
If you can't take the price back to 50c, you'll never win dispute 💯
2025-05-01 00:56:52
Would be neat if we got a last minute bombshell here like the minerals deal market
2025-05-01 10:16:09
Asked ChatGPT if anything satisfying this market had occurred. It told me YES and referenced the US-Ukraine Mineral Deal. It brought it up, not me. Hmm...
2025-05-01 11:21:31
You're rich bro ✊
2025-05-01 11:34:40
RIP to my N 👼 50Pence you win 🏆
2025-05-01 12:32:50
Yeah I gave up as 50P is right
2025-05-01 12:45:50
Bruh I was on N until a short while ago
2025-05-01 12:46:48
Sir I was trying to load up N! Then the great reveal happened, and we realized there was actually a tariff agreement.
2025-05-02 01:16:10
They're eating the dogs! They're eating the cats!
2025-05-02 18:13:29
RIP
2025-05-03 07:39:26
why was there like 500k liquidity of free money up
2025-05-03 08:45:47
Lovely, can't wait to have people rant about another market for days on Discord
2025-05-03 09:01:47
Should I sell?
2025-05-03 09:02:05
Oh no!
2025-05-03 10:58:52
thank you guys for being reasonable and letting it resolve
2025-05-03 20:09:02
We're gonna be rich bois 💰💸
2025-05-03 21:29:07
I'm making money
2025-05-03 21:29:27
Money printer goes brrrrrr
2025-05-04 03:20:06
I like making money
2025-05-04 11:16:02
No I did not buy Han Deok-soo. However, I do own 6.65M shares. I'll be rich once I sell them all.
2025-05-05 01:51:16
It's dead now, we made it back to this one
2025-05-05 01:51:43
Sold all my N here at a L, time to Martingale
2025-05-05 02:45:25
how'd you know it would flip? teach me your ways =(
2025-05-05 06:33:43
I hope you buy more, ngl 💀
2025-05-05 06:34:14
Yeah, we printed
2025-05-06 00:49:39
Hope it stays open
2025-05-06 01:13:40
Been more than an hour since dispoot and still open, I'm so happy
2025-05-06 02:34:20
ggs, see everyone in the next market
2025-05-06 21:41:42
Imagine thinking Pakistan won't respond 😂
2025-05-06 21:42:25
"initiates"
2025-05-06 23:47:33
I'd like to buy more Nationals 😅
2025-05-07 00:47:28
?
2025-05-07 00:47:40
I sold
2025-05-07 05:46:08
Ladygunhee never gonna 😂
2025-05-07 20:34:05
Well no, because now Polymarket is proactively clarifying most markets. Tho tbf don't know if they'll intervene here given they already clarified and it's obvs resolvable.
2025-05-07 20:41:46
I've lost plenty of disputed markets, just lost another in past month even.
2025-05-07 20:42:10
If you're talking about the one with outcome determined, the shares were generated for free.
2025-05-07 20:43:37
No, as far as I'm aware no Polymarket trader has a sizable (1M+) amount of UMA. The outcomes are determined by the real UMA whales who are majority staff, Risk Lab affiliated, or early investors.
2025-05-07 20:44:24
I've literally never staked or voted with UMA 😂
2025-05-07 20:51:47
I wouldn't ever be in that position because UMA is a shitcoin. I ain't buying that.
2025-05-08 09:49:58
Ggs
2025-05-08 12:35:57
Now Polymarket decides almost every disputed market. So it's up to them.
2025-05-08 12:58:04
I literally want this to be clarified.
2025-05-08 20:52:26
Took a nap and came back. Looks clarified, it's over.
2025-05-08 20:54:30
Well the vote is nearly over, but yes I assume Y will win with 90%+. That's my prediction as there's no good argument for your side.
2025-05-08 20:58:09
No
2025-05-08 21:01:47
Then you live in an alternate reality. Pakistan claimed the attacks. Indians jets were found downed. Pakistani missile debris was found on Indian territory near jets. Reporting indicates neither side left their airspace. Simple.
2025-05-08 23:55:42
Price will be at 99.9c within 1 hour, last chance to sell for N holders
2025-05-09 00:04:07
Lol
2025-05-09 00:04:24
It's over bro ✊
2025-05-09 00:14:37
Both sides have said Pakistan initiated strikes. And it's over, don't give them false hope.
2025-05-09 00:15:19
50Pence is a lawyer
2025-05-09 00:45:39
Real people are still buying N when the vote is 100% Y?
2025-05-09 00:46:26
Bruh, ofc there is
2025-05-09 08:27:08
Yes, according to schedule
2025-05-09 08:33:41
Yesterday, when Pope Leo XIV was chosen. Went from 1c to 99c. Many such examples.
2025-05-09 19:20:02
Please buy more N
2025-05-09 19:23:08
?
2025-05-09 19:23:42
N guys super quiet. Did they give up?
2025-05-09 21:48:58
If you're betting against Jesus, you're going to HELL 👹
2025-05-09 23:16:58
Free money 💸💰
2025-05-09 23:37:41
I got sniped on the news 💀
2025-05-09 23:46:58
Yikes they keep escalating [link removed]
2025-05-09 23:55:24
Ggs, literally beginning a counterstrike
2025-05-10 00:09:22
N holders seem to be in denial
2025-05-10 02:37:11
Anyone gonna dispoot?
2025-05-10 02:37:36
Seems gg bro
2025-05-10 02:37:57
?
2025-05-10 02:48:13
Drones count tho
2025-05-10 03:28:59
Sad, no one willing to put money where their mouth is 👄
2025-05-10 03:45:49
Ggs
2025-05-10 04:21:24
💀
2025-05-11 19:36:34
Cope
2025-05-11 19:36:59
Yes is at 80c
2025-05-11 19:45:58
You have 6X the shares I do 💀
2025-05-11 19:49:37
The deal? They'll probably do it tmrw
2025-05-11 19:50:23
I should have bought more at 20c haha
2025-05-11 19:56:23
There is no manipulation 🙄
2025-05-11 19:57:22
Chill, it was Polymarket themselves who clarified
2025-05-11 20:01:30
Yep, normal and acceptable. If you are really coping that it's rigged, why are you holding?
2025-05-11 20:23:43
The real manipulation is the price of N being propped up by one guy slamming 😆
2025-05-11 21:35:39
Yeah
2025-05-11 21:49:38
The warriors of justice shall prevail against the forces of Satan 👹
2025-05-11 22:38:51
An honorable exit may be better than going to 0 💀
2025-05-12 05:38:39
Gg in an hour?
2025-05-12 07:10:05
Told you it would go to 0 in an hour lol, granted it seems my sells hit
2025-05-12 07:11:41
Looks I was right
2025-05-12 19:57:21
38c is kinda crazy
2025-05-12 20:17:28
Because real odds of recession have not fallen 10% since yesterday. This is an overreaction.
2025-05-12 22:13:50
50%
2025-05-13 05:19:40
Never go against car 🚗 RIP 💀
2025-05-13 09:39:07
This is the Selzer Poll all over again 😆
2025-05-13 09:57:40
This is what the Canadians said before they got wrecked hard on Carney 😆
2025-05-13 11:29:49
At 38c sure
2025-05-13 11:31:18
Booked
2025-05-15 10:31:23
Every sportsbook known to man has Dan higher odds, are we cooked? Time for 50/50? 😦
2025-05-15 18:29:50
Oh God I'm down 15K? Isn't Simion a bond?
2025-05-16 02:24:22
Well I agree he shouldn't win, but Solo Leveling still does many things right. Obviously, neither the MC nor plot are anything exceptional. But at least it was an excellent adaptation of the source material, unlike say SAO the game design was actually well-thought out, and the animation, soundtracks, voice acting, and fight choreography were all done well. I'd still take e.g. Demon Slayer over it any day, but it was still an enjoyable watch. I wouldn't be too concerned because there is nk shortage of truly great shows coming out every season. Including some of these nominees. Now... Let's pray for the fall of Sung Jinwoo! 😃
2025-05-16 06:45:16
40c wen?
2025-05-16 07:40:22
Is there any news? Why is price going down?
2025-05-16 07:42:35
?
2025-05-16 07:43:37
I see all the smart people buying Simion so I buy too
2025-05-16 07:44:20
Why
2025-05-16 07:45:22
But didn't Simion win by a lot the first round?
2025-05-16 07:47:33
But not in Romania, right? Has that ever happened before?
2025-05-16 07:50:15
What were R1/R2 breakdowns in 2014?
2025-05-16 07:54:35
Ok but it was the liberal side that capped out that time, wasnt it? And R1 lead was 10% not 20% like here with Simion
2025-05-16 08:05:00
He wants to make Romania great again 👍🏽
2025-05-16 08:24:56
I'm scared Simion bros 😰 hold my hand
2025-05-16 08:26:05
I don't think so, he was up 20% in R1 😳 i will pray 🙏
2025-05-16 08:27:27
Yeah I'm down 40K. I don't understand why price changed so much when we don't have results
2025-05-16 09:53:18
If y'all really believed in Dan, you'd at least take this to 40c
2025-05-16 09:57:13
This is why you're not a whale
2025-05-16 11:14:46
But I can't buy there so I'm stuck paying more here
2025-05-16 11:15:03
Doesn't matter anyways because Simion will win
2025-05-16 19:20:30
It's insane. K is also unresolved and also 4%. Same rules regarding non-caretaker government.
2025-05-16 19:21:30
Ponta Endorsement? Lfgo! 🔥🔥
2025-05-16 19:22:47
Ponta said he's voting for Simion (He said not Dan)
2025-05-16 19:26:07
"George Simion is the only candidate who brings a radical CHANGE whether it will be for better or for worse, no one knows. We will only see if he wins."
2025-05-16 19:28:00
"I will NOT vote for Nicusor Dan just to "keep Simion from becoming president and taking us to Russia""
2025-05-16 19:30:21
Quotes from Ponta's endorsement today
2025-05-16 19:36:15
I mean. He pretty unequivocally said he's voting for Simion and not Dan
2025-05-16 21:23:09
I tried my best, but they just won't listen. I give up.
2025-05-16 21:23:49
The other site with same rules is still 4c as well because this is pretty plausible to happen.
2025-05-16 21:39:32
The site that starts with K
2025-05-16 23:04:06
Really thought we'd get back to 60c after Ponta endorsement. Sad
2025-05-16 23:14:29
The same thing happened in Canada. The locals were super insistent Carney would lose. Not only did Carney win, but Pierre lost his own seat lol. Why do you guys think you're smarter than professional election forecasters?
2025-05-16 23:15:12
Anti-Endorsement would be the more apt term, but it's regardless mildly significant.
2025-05-16 23:20:43
ggs ig
2025-05-17 00:06:24
It's a manhwa (Korean) not manga (Japanese). They also literally added content. The pacing was perfectly normal, and not much was cut. They also improved on some aspects. There are a lot of comedy bits in the manhwa that just make Jinwoo look like an asshole, and sometimes seems out of character. For instance, after a deep conversation with his bro while they were out drinking, he then slammed the door on his face and said he didn't know him. In the anime, he acted like a normal person instead. Also, the manhwa isn't even the original source.
2025-05-17 00:08:31
So it's also unclear as there are changes from the web novel to the manhwa. The anime may take some from the web novel, or do things different than both. Another example, the sister's friend stopped showing up but she kept appearing in the anime.
2025-05-17 05:29:45
Naw def not, free money for Simion diaspora
2025-05-17 20:02:42
Gm, what's the cope today?
2025-05-17 20:02:55
Correct
2025-05-17 20:39:46
Simion vote going strong today, maybe it's over 🔥🔥
2025-05-18 06:30:14
What is driving the price action? Was 55, 60, now 50 again?
2025-05-18 06:42:31
Nope first time trading Romanian elections. But usually the more enthusiastic side in comments loses, because they are betting emotionally.
2025-05-18 06:43:00
I predict most if you guys will go radio silent if Simion wins tomorrow.
2025-05-18 06:48:54
People were ranting just like you in the Canadian election market. And guess what? Carney won, and Pierre even lost his own seat! Maybe it's precisely because you are betting on your own country that you are trading emotionally rather than looking at data objectively.
2025-05-18 09:22:12
Why is price falling when there's no new info?
2025-05-18 09:35:17
Where?
2025-05-18 09:35:32
Why wouldn't they be for Simion?
2025-05-18 17:42:27
Good morning. What new info took price down to low 30s while I was gone?
2025-05-18 18:45:30
I am homeless now
2025-05-18 22:22:20
Congrats to all the Dan holders! You were right all along 🙏
2025-05-18 22:42:27
Ty, I lost almost 150K today. Could have been worse tho.
2025-05-18 22:45:52
Ggs
2025-05-20 02:19:17
Thanks
2025-05-21 21:14:21
Formal transfership. This is still pending legal.
2025-05-21 21:19:36
I have never traded this market, and Polymarket is the one who decided. There's nothing unfair about the decision, and no UMA involved.
2025-05-21 21:55:16
Correct
2025-05-22 01:33:03
We'll see ig
2025-05-22 01:35:58
Maybe they're going off the joke in latest arc? Where apparently in-universe some call him loli lover or something, due to Beatrice.
2025-05-22 01:36:53
There is nothing to it in-universe tho. He doesn't see Beatrice that way and pretty strictly only has eyes for Emilia.
2025-05-23 01:13:17
I proposed because it should qualify, and disputed myself since it seemed many disagree. Polymarket clarified, and there's nothing to see here. Reasonable determination.
2025-05-23 16:36:33
Didn't even know we had this market, but ggs
2025-05-23 17:05:35
Anything below 7 (and sustains) is generally garbage
2025-05-23 17:16:43
I like Otonoke better. Creepy Nuts will win either way.
2025-05-23 17:28:15
Maybe?
2025-05-23 17:28:50
It's a very good song. I think it'll win either Best Song or Best Opening Sequence.
2025-05-23 21:34:59
I can't afford to lose another bet this month...
2025-05-24 02:56:38
Oh God...
2025-05-24 03:50:31
If it loses yeah
2025-05-24 04:18:29
This might well be the largest bond collapse in the entire history of box office markets... Shit 💩
2025-05-24 05:58:42
Well just Romania. All the other bets have been winning. I'm positive for last 30d, actually.
2025-05-24 09:09:31
Every single comp for children/family film has this over 140M: The Little Mermaid (2023), Garfield (2024), Aladdin (2019), Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016). I admit Kurasaki got lucky with the Friday numbers, but it's time to dump and lock in those gains. Let both sides walk away with dignity.
2025-05-24 09:10:02
*children/family film over Memorial Day Weekend
2025-05-24 09:52:44
Technically 139.5M, but it would realistically get rounded up by Disney. Also depends on the numbers for input. If Friday is actually in between Jat and Deadline, then it's comfortably above 140M.
2025-05-24 09:57:29
I listed every single movie in the past decade. That is not one of them.
2025-05-24 10:40:30
Like I said, I already listed every movie in the last decade. The Lion King is not one of them.
2025-05-24 15:04:27
The lowest comp is The Little Mermaid and that is 140M. I listed all the Memorial Day weekend films for the past decade. The Lion King is not one of them.
2025-05-24 19:03:29
He means you should visit the optometrist for a vision test
2025-05-24 20:38:03
Not that I'm complaining, but why are we so back?
2025-05-24 20:40:01
So true. I warned Ichigo Kurasaki last night, but he didn't take the honorable exit. His luck has run out!
2025-05-24 20:47:57
You got greedy Ichigo Kurasaki, should have listened to me last night 💀
2025-05-24 21:02:58
The Grim Reaper has come for Ichigo Kurasaki
2025-05-25 21:18:26
Time to blindly tail AlphaX and hope for the best! 😃
2025-05-25 21:30:44
Alright, chief
2025-05-25 21:41:31
That was last week, wdym lol
2025-05-25 21:52:44
It's just randos on the Y side. All the smart money guys are on N.
2025-05-26 02:56:06
we can resolve tmrw, be patient
2025-05-26 04:57:01
?
2025-05-26 05:25:24
have fun y'all
2025-05-26 05:27:00
dunno, seemed like the right move
2025-05-26 05:29:54
whose first bet
2025-05-26 05:30:10
LFGO
2025-05-26 06:30:27
I only traded this on one account lol
2025-05-26 06:36:55
Sure, yeah. Pretty normal to trade on multiple accounts.
2025-05-26 06:53:14
Don't listen to him, he's a lunatic who would laugh if someone threw a baby out a window
2025-05-26 07:01:45
This is why they call you "scum of the earth"
2025-05-26 07:11:36
I have a limit at 35c
2025-05-26 07:13:20
Nawrocki has consistently been higher price on the sportsbooks. Wonder when price will equalize.
2025-05-26 08:09:35
Yes. Trza is lower/cheaper on the books than Nawrocki. Yet the odds are backwards on Polymarket.
2025-05-26 11:05:06
Dunno why it went so low
2025-05-26 12:08:24
Ggs
2025-05-26 12:20:00
The insiders are real 💯
2025-05-26 20:58:13
I don't think that's worth 2%
2025-05-26 22:59:56
Funny how the market has drifted downwards as we get closer to the election
2025-05-27 04:39:29
It's basically 35c vs 55c or something? Pretty insane difference. The same happened in Romania, except the locals were buying the opposite side there (the one favored by books, which won).
2025-05-27 04:41:43
Locals in Romania: You guys are so dumb, the books have Dan way up! Locals in Poland: You guys are so dumb for not fading the books!
2025-05-27 06:03:45
170 is impossible bro
2025-05-27 06:31:56
Part of the logic of the Romanian locals was that the books had Dan up. In any case, it's not about who will win. It's about the odds. And the odds are too low on Polymarket.
2025-05-27 19:17:18
This'll be fun 💥
2025-05-27 19:33:07
Alright, sell then bro 🙄
2025-05-27 19:37:05
Chumps love getting being used by arbers for free money
2025-05-27 20:50:03
Lol
2025-05-27 20:58:03
So I win no matter what
2025-05-27 21:03:22
You may need to reassess how market odds and probability works, if you're asking that question.
2025-05-27 21:11:24
Tbc, I mean that I think there's a 50%+ chance it explodes. But not e.g. 75%.
2025-05-27 21:19:41
Might be last chance for Trza holders to dump before prices return to normal
2025-05-27 21:27:59
low-mid 40s for Nawrocki
2025-05-27 23:47:44
That was fun
2025-05-27 23:53:18
It ain't over till it's over
2025-05-27 23:53:25
Ain't over till it's over
2025-05-28 00:13:10
Well clearly it isn't over, or we'd be at 99.9c after 20 min lol
2025-05-28 02:56:23
So how does that explain Romania? Lol
2025-05-28 13:16:53
Why did price fall 8-10c in less than a day?
2025-05-28 13:40:27
Romanian books favored Dan. Polish books favor Nawrocki.
2025-05-28 21:27:22
Sure it's not a glowing endorsement, but we got a clear enough anti-endorsement of Trza from Mentzen, effectively supporting Nawrocki. Why hold Trza at 67c? Many were assuming he'd be more neutral, so this should be net negative for your side.
2025-05-29 03:33:10
Looks like they gave up lol
2025-05-29 03:40:27
Ggs, I should have bought more when it was cheap
2025-05-29 04:10:59
?
2025-05-29 04:58:48
Lol
2025-05-29 05:00:13
"Performances which are possibly staged but include elements of real physical fighting such as punching or wrestling will qualify, as long as they are not obviously slapstick/stunts."
2025-05-29 10:35:46
Obviously not lol. I totally agree T has the edge but prices have dipped too far for N
2025-05-29 10:41:29
Maybe
2025-05-29 11:02:39
Let's be real. Nawrocki should be closer to 40c given the most updated polling and endorsements/support.
2025-05-29 11:05:10
I still think Trza should be favored, but 2:1 odds seems silly.
2025-05-29 11:08:06
Oh God not this guy again...
2025-05-29 20:38:46
Gm, why is this a suit?
2025-05-29 20:58:31
Bro said pajamas are a suit lol
2025-05-30 07:54:16
I can't believe I switched over to this side smh
2025-05-30 09:50:00
I have no idea what you're smoking bro
2025-05-30 20:16:49
I put up more for you Sandra!
2025-05-31 10:51:59
🔥🔥🔥
2025-06-01 04:14:25
Alright guys, I am OUT. Gl everyone
2025-06-01 04:31:14
🎱
2025-06-01 04:31:26
Yeah I'm good bro, you knock yourself out
2025-06-01 08:00:05
Gotta wait another 1.7 days (or more)
2025-06-01 08:06:27
ggs, the CEO of UMA has spoken
2025-06-02 00:50:46
Ggs
2025-06-02 11:03:29
He did not wear a suit
2025-06-02 21:09:54
UMA likely views P2 as a scam attempt after two failed votes and the CEO calling out the P3 attempt. I think it very unlikely this succeeds.
2025-06-03 01:57:25
I no longer feel concerned. Time to take a nap, my eyes are literally burning.
2025-06-03 02:21:24
ty, pls pay your debts tho
2025-06-03 09:26:48
I should have never sold most my N, tbh
2025-06-03 16:08:37
Never forget this was at 0.1c
2025-06-03 22:19:08
Hate that I lost 10K on this market, who even won?
2025-06-05 10:38:42
A strong first choice endorsement probably matters a bit. Market was only 75% that she endorses.
2025-06-05 12:16:21
When it's shitty, sometimes people want drastic change
2025-06-05 22:46:26
Maybe if Trump visited the Island and was a customer 😳
2025-06-05 23:39:52
"Nothing ever happens" - [link removed] 🙄🙄
2025-06-06 10:45:58
?
2025-06-08 20:14:25
Which way are we resolving this one?
2025-06-08 20:15:39
I'm busy at the conference, just wanna know
2025-06-08 20:20:04
Yes, no, maybe so!
2025-06-08 20:31:37
I want in 😢 someone fill me plz
2025-06-08 20:32:16
Manifest, all the cool kids are here in the flesh 👉
2025-06-08 20:36:00
STOP BUYING YES AND FILL ME AJSJDSJS
2025-06-08 20:45:43
Nope, I market bought a but at 69-70 cause no one's filling. Now we're 75 💀
2025-06-08 20:53:48
You were right, why didn't I max at 30?
2025-06-08 20:54:20
This is a very serious matter
2025-06-08 20:57:11
Never doubt Susan from HR 💀
2025-06-08 22:26:22
It's not boarding without consent, it's just an intimate get-together!
2025-06-08 22:59:21
[link removed]
2025-06-08 23:03:02
Why is this not at 90+?
2025-06-08 23:04:42
Israeli media literally reported that it'll be boarded
2025-06-08 23:29:36
They're training to politely ask Greta if they can come over for tea obvs 🍵
2025-06-08 23:33:42
Pulled my wall, praying for Greta 🙏
2025-06-08 23:45:50
I don't understand who wants to buy N on this when it's confirmed they sprayed chemicals on the ship
2025-06-09 00:07:54
Ggs
2025-06-09 00:09:49
Always believe in aenews
2025-06-09 00:44:49
No
2025-06-09 01:38:55
Sounds like consent!
2025-06-09 22:46:25
Man I called it that Zohran was too low. I sold too much low tho.
2025-06-11 08:00:16
Goddamit why couldn't he have done it 28 hours earlier? I had so much of Monday...
2025-06-12 00:16:30
Looks like the wrong guy was leading that poll, but we'll probably get him next time
2025-06-12 00:36:31
Given this is only R1, probably equates to maybe Zohran +10 Final Round? We got this Cuomo bros 👊
2025-06-12 00:38:34
I'm a progressive lib cuck bro, dw
2025-06-12 00:40:08
The people want a socialist muslim immigrant mayor ❤
2025-06-12 00:40:53
You NEVER lose 👑
2025-06-12 01:33:55
Yep
2025-06-12 21:39:48
You may need the gambling assistance hotline ngl 💀
2025-06-12 21:43:58
If you Y guys are insiders, please let us know so we don't keep donating you money. Thanks.
2025-06-12 22:13:11
Seems crazy unless inside info
2025-06-12 22:22:09
Wtf car?
2025-06-13 08:40:43
All we need is a single drone to have been intercepted over Israeli airspace, and then it's a YES 😔
2025-06-13 19:33:25
Dooes everyone expect Iran to be sitting ducks when Israel demolished their country? Their pride may not allow it.
2025-06-13 21:39:30
Do you really think this level of escalation is comparable? Israel planned this for years, even planting a secret drone base in Iran to take out their systems. The point is appearing strong rather than weak. They don't want to be cucks who accept getting pummeled in the middle of negotiations.
2025-06-13 22:15:36
Israel just targeted the Supreme Leader...
2025-06-13 23:15:00
Amen
2025-06-13 23:29:39
While I do think it could plausibly be tough to get a 33 yo socialist Muslim mayor in office, I'm personally a progressive and hope he wins.
2025-06-14 07:20:35
Ok then buy in that market, it's very cheap
2025-06-14 19:34:30
Maybe both!
2025-06-14 19:47:58
Never fade the insiders
2025-06-14 19:51:49
Seems fairly plausible the insiders are aware that Khamenei is either being attacked or has been hospitalized, if not eliminated.
2025-06-14 20:03:53
Well there were some weird buys. Maybe it's a nothingburger, maybe it's something.
2025-06-14 20:04:32
No one has a clue, we're flying blind
2025-06-14 20:11:07
What I can say is that I lost 50K because insiders bought Israel to strike Iran. So there's clearly folks who are buying with a clear asymmetric information edge. The well's already been poisoned, so there's no telling what market might be next.
2025-06-14 22:01:47
Looks there is some reason. WSJ now reporting Israel says killing him is "not off the table".
2025-06-14 22:02:23
I can't imagine holding N at this price given all the news
2025-06-14 23:54:59
Why did market move so much?
2025-06-15 00:05:14
Hope not, or I'm cooked
2025-06-15 05:01:44
85.01M incoming! 😄
2025-06-15 07:35:37
Not happening, betwashed
2025-06-15 07:36:26
Money is money, and there's a burning hole in my wallet already this month
2025-06-15 09:47:53
My source is my PnL 😳 and Prayer 🙏
2025-06-15 16:40:05
Copium is a strong drug, wagmi 💪💊
2025-06-15 16:40:38
What is driving all this price movement? Went to 99 then 55?
2025-06-15 21:16:44
Doing math is hard, that's why
2025-06-15 22:27:35
I'm so cooked, [link removed].
2025-06-16 00:13:24
More
2025-06-16 02:16:28
Yeah I bought too much at high prices for sure. We'll see.
2025-06-16 05:54:30
Why 1 in 8? Shouldn't it be 50/50
2025-06-16 06:45:07
Looks like the gig is up, can't wait to see everyone's faces tomorrow!
2025-06-16 06:45:20
price is correcting
2025-06-16 07:00:49
Yeah I'm really kicking myself for not having more bids
2025-06-16 07:01:08
Yes, price is correcting
2025-06-16 11:10:16
I think I'll keep hyperventilating until the number is released
2025-06-16 11:18:56
Ty
2025-06-16 16:41:05
This is an old estimate without Sunday. The new estimate is probably gonna be 85.0 or something
2025-06-16 16:41:54
Well that's during the weekend. After the weekend is over, should be right
2025-06-16 16:48:10
Gm, looks like I was right after all. Should win unless Universal rounds down. Guessing the updated estimate will be 85.0... market will go to 0 once it posts.
2025-06-16 16:50:01
Ty, same to you. Studios almost always round up, tho. You'd have to get super lucky for a 84.9M.
2025-06-16 16:52:09
Yesterday's estimate was not including Sunday data, that's why it ended up much lower. Because it had a really good Sunday.
2025-06-16 17:16:35
This is not updated lol
2025-06-16 17:22:23
I will accept a ceasefire at 50/50 in accordance with international law
2025-06-16 17:41:27
If this was Sony, it would be rounded to 90M 😆
2025-06-16 17:44:25
I will hold
2025-06-16 17:48:36
Jatinder doesn't high ball
2025-06-16 18:03:45
It hasn't been confirmed
2025-06-16 18:17:33
I'm praying the updated estimate comes in 85.0
2025-06-16 18:21:16
Yep
2025-06-16 18:23:57
Jatinder vs Gitesh, who will win?
2025-06-16 20:31:42
Yep. Everyone here got lucky but were very wrong that estimate would not increase by much. I knew the Sunday drop was going to be better than the estimate by a fair bit. Sadly lost on the margin. I was trying to bet even odds in size for 84.5M+ast night, only managed to get $100 out of Betwick.
2025-06-16 20:33:48
Just would like to say that even though this lost on the margin, I was right that the Sunday drop would be much better than the estimate. Was trying to bet people in size for 84M+ and 84.5M+, but sadly only got $100 from Betwick.
2025-06-17 01:18:35
This site
2025-06-17 08:03:53
Still estimates
2025-06-17 20:32:23
Looks like the Memedani pump is finally over, the dream has ended 💀
2025-06-18 09:48:59
Sorry, but you're an idiot. These polls literally do RCV breakdowns round-by-round.
2025-06-18 18:48:36
😒
2025-06-18 19:04:22
Buy more
2025-06-18 19:13:10
Buy more
2025-06-18 21:43:58
Ggs
2025-06-19 21:38:49
Cope
2025-06-19 21:48:31
Buy more
2025-06-19 21:48:38
Cope
2025-06-20 02:35:57
Because the event happened
2025-06-20 03:58:40
Nothing better than betting on the past
2025-06-20 04:26:14
Low IQ Alert!
2025-06-20 06:14:19
😒
2025-06-20 06:25:24
Rip that rando guy who evaporated 100K
2025-06-20 06:28:38
Don't think it'll cover 💀
2025-06-20 06:34:47
The truth has been revealed
2025-06-20 06:38:34
Closed beta doesn't qualify, and appears this is invite-only.
2025-06-20 07:32:06
Takes a special kind of person to buy N in this market after it already happened
2025-06-20 07:32:16
Free money is free
2025-06-20 09:15:30
By the end of this market, I might bet up to 1M tbh
2025-06-20 09:24:58
Pro Tip #1: Don't buy the losing side of a market after the event has occurred. Pro Tip #2: Look at the PnL of the top holders on both sides.
2025-06-20 09:42:15
Bro your PnL is literally $1
2025-06-20 09:57:23
You being in denial does not matter. There was a major cyberattack.
2025-06-20 10:10:59
So you're just one of those guys hoping for a quick 20X. It won't happen, but it's understandable how tantalizing that must be.
2025-06-20 10:24:01
Seems a waste of time, and already answered elsewhere.
2025-06-20 10:25:05
Well I'm advising folks to stop lighting their money on fire 🔥
2025-06-20 10:28:17
I queued up half a million if you want to buy more, tho it'll be pulled in a bit cause imma sleep
2025-06-20 10:37:28
Probably neither. It'll resolve after some time.
2025-06-20 11:12:04
By predicting
2025-06-20 18:40:11
Just gets a re-vote
2025-06-20 20:13:07
I put up half a million, if you want more shares. Will expire in 5-10 minutes.
2025-06-20 22:12:43
If Trump really wants to fire him, there is not much stopping him. The Trump admin does not care about the law or the courts. Even if ruled against, they'll cherry-pick and declare victory. If Trump manages to lock Powell out of the building, then the market will resolve YES.
2025-06-20 22:25:13
4 rounds before it gets deleted
2025-06-21 03:30:43
It was majority without BTL. So with BTL switching, would be P2 next vote.
2025-06-21 04:00:08
Reuters: "The invitations said a Tesla employee will accompany riders in the front passenger seat, the posts showed."
2025-06-21 05:43:03
I put it up multiple times, but no one filled me. You'd be RICH rn if you had!
2025-06-21 08:26:18
N is nothing but a pump, get out while you can
2025-06-21 12:01:53
Pretty insane sells. It's obviously going P2 eventually, whether that's this proposal or the next.
2025-06-21 12:27:25
Done
2025-06-21 12:37:37
The N buyers at 5c teamed up and spammed the Oracle
2025-06-21 13:05:26
Imagine getting greedy and not cashing out a 1000% return
2025-06-21 13:28:29
It's literally only because of the spam posts and a lotta luck. This would never have happened in a regular voting round. There are 14 simultaneous votes.
2025-06-21 13:44:04
It worked the other 99 times bro. You guys got extremely sneaking in during a 14 dispute vote-a-rama. So UMA voters weren't paying attention. Even so, most likely the situation will come around eventually.
2025-06-21 21:31:48
There's a motto in the community: "aedumps price pumps" I always sell too soon 😩
2025-06-21 21:45:01
I was slepy andwanted tk slep soundly
2025-06-21 22:23:02
Looks like the N pump and dump operation may be shuttering soon
2025-06-21 22:25:22
Team N could have sold at 50c, or 60c, or even 88c. But they got greedy.
2025-06-21 22:27:31
Pretty big difference between a 20% loss and missing out on a 2000% gain
2025-06-21 22:29:07
dumbass, ty for the shares!
2025-06-21 22:33:52
I thank him for the shares
2025-06-22 00:17:10
gl with this bet, after Iran was bombed by the US
2025-06-22 00:23:25
nope
2025-06-22 00:56:57
Imagine not selling your shares at 1000% profit
2025-06-22 00:57:07
early vote is pretty P4
2025-06-22 01:26:04
buy more son
2025-06-22 01:26:28
Im so slepy, i want moar shares tho
2025-06-22 01:29:17
buy more thonker, maybe you can afford to pay back your loan soon!
2025-06-22 02:01:41
Alright, I queued up another 20K at 40c, fill me!
2025-06-22 02:08:53
Warned y'all to not get greedy lol
2025-06-22 02:15:51
Sure. I'm willing to sell mid-80s ig. Nothing is certain.
2025-06-22 02:55:44
No. You guys manipulated the market lol.
2025-06-22 05:14:03
The delusional folks in comments lost the last 50 times, and you'll lose again
2025-06-22 05:17:51
I love you too
2025-06-22 06:04:57
A smart guy and a great trader
2025-06-22 06:06:38
ok bro
2025-06-22 06:55:03
hold my hand, let's sing Kum Ba Yah
2025-06-22 07:57:22
Congrats to all true believers! 4.41M P2 - 3.52M P4
2025-06-22 08:07:36
4.81M P2 - 3.52M P4
2025-06-22 08:13:19
N is on a straight path to 0
2025-06-22 08:23:43
I made more in this market than you made on the entire site, buddy
2025-06-22 08:49:03
Who's gonna tell bro Y is up in the vote?
2025-06-22 08:55:00
Incorrect. And evidence is cumulative, anyways. We don't need to argue anymore, just look at the voting results.
2025-06-22 09:45:41
Nice dipshit conspiracy theory. So why didn't my side win the last vote? Why'd folks sell at massive loss?
2025-06-22 09:46:51
Depends on what you want to trade. I recommend focusing on markets where you have an information edge, carefully following news, talking with other traders, and sizing bets carefully.
2025-06-22 09:49:56
5.34M P2 - 3.64M P4 More whales just revealed, gl Team N
2025-06-22 09:50:18
59.1% Yes so far
2025-06-22 09:59:35
14 hours
2025-06-22 12:02:43
Duderr is correct
2025-06-22 12:21:01
Ggs, Memedani ngmi
2025-06-22 18:04:00
Nice, so nothing changed and people lit their money on fire for no reason
2025-06-22 19:08:00
If we get nothing from IAEA and Iran, this is probably resolving N, unless we get some very conclusive evidence.
2025-06-22 19:27:20
Yes, aenews
2025-06-22 20:23:50
[link removed] is where you can see the voting, ends in 3.5 hours
2025-06-22 20:24:14
Gl guys, I'm out for now
2025-06-22 20:35:23
Current results are neither good nor bad for either side.
2025-06-22 21:17:13
The last few times Trump did this, Israel struck Iran and then US struck nuclear facilities. Just saying, maybe Kham is next.
2025-06-22 21:22:21
I won bro, I made $1K
2025-06-22 21:33:08
I made 1K
2025-06-22 23:42:27
ggs
2025-06-23 01:56:10
I'm done with this market. It will resolve Y. Have fun.
2025-06-23 05:48:42
I am, but I guess I'll rebuy now. It's over, no reason to fight it.
2025-06-23 22:04:09
Lol you guys are desperately pumping and dumping now.
2025-06-23 23:42:22
Stop filling me, you guys are lighting your money on fire.
2025-06-24 01:38:44
you have 3c shares bro
2025-06-24 01:38:57
It already got that much extra
2025-06-24 01:39:15
or well on track
2025-06-24 01:48:31
selling at 2c is better than 0c, just saying
2025-06-24 01:53:38
confused? The N side is gambling addicts. They refused to sell even at 70c and 50c and 30c. Instead of a free 6-30X, they have nothing
2025-06-24 01:54:28
All the money I have I made here, basically. Made 1M last year
2025-06-24 02:17:29
idgi you realize I sold a ton at a loss right
2025-06-24 02:17:36
It's over
2025-06-24 08:13:32
free money is free, wish I had more money to buy shares with tho
2025-06-24 08:22:48
no point in selling, will just wait for it to resolve
2025-06-24 08:23:09
is this chatgpt
2025-06-24 08:24:45
pls buy more
2025-06-24 08:35:42
it's settled, will pay out soon
2025-06-24 08:47:57
The other market (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july-15) is resolved, so this is done. Can sell your shares for 1-2c at least.
2025-06-24 08:53:28
The rules are the same
2025-06-24 08:53:57
Nope
2025-06-24 08:54:07
Rules are the same
2025-06-24 08:56:34
It's done, just sell
2025-06-24 09:17:26
where do you schizos come from
2025-06-24 09:17:47
correct, this resolves in 15 hours
2025-06-24 09:22:06
You're all schizzoooo
2025-06-24 09:34:40
Not replying to your schizo msg
2025-06-24 09:35:01
If you'd like, can msg on Discord (aenews)
2025-06-24 09:48:33
I am out of cash, and the other free money market is 96c lol
2025-06-24 09:49:05
no
2025-06-24 11:19:45
It's done
2025-06-24 11:42:59
Noooo why'd I leave my sells up
2025-06-24 11:49:39
At this point as a N holder you really should just dump. It will resolve in 12 hours.
2025-06-24 11:52:37
You can't. It immediately settles and then resolves.
2025-06-24 11:53:45
What is wrong with you? And you have 4c shares. Did you seriously think you're entitled to a 25X?
2025-06-24 11:59:42
You have 1c shares
2025-06-24 12:01:35
Np, glad it helped someone
2025-06-24 12:02:44
Here's how it works. In 12 hours, this will settle and then resolve. Shares will then be redeemable for $1 or $0. No further disputes or waiting.
2025-06-24 23:09:54
Suit up for the ride, folks!
2025-06-24 23:23:53
I am aenews
2025-06-24 23:29:34
I am selling and also buying ig
2025-06-24 23:30:40
Why would I
2025-06-24 23:37:09
Omg ur back
2025-06-25 00:07:10
Are we so over, or so back?
2025-06-25 00:11:39
Why
2025-06-25 00:57:47
It did
2025-06-25 12:47:21
Ggs, looks like people finally saw the last vote
2025-06-25 12:49:25
Sweet, then you can finally pay back the loan
2025-06-25 12:49:43
No one cares
2025-06-26 04:38:51
No. Most whales supported Y. And they lost.
2025-06-26 06:35:19
Or maybe, just maybe, we had a dispute with the same situation a month ago and already decided it's a N.
2025-06-26 06:36:35
You will literally be lighting the money on fire. FYI proposing is like buying 75c Y shares.
2025-06-26 06:52:51
June resolved N, July (this one) went P4
2025-06-26 09:53:08
Seems over to me, I think. And I've been Team N.
2025-06-26 09:55:17
The director of IAEA said that the centrifuges are non functional. I didn't expect a direct statement like that, but it happened.
2025-06-26 10:02:46
Interview
2025-06-26 10:08:05
aenews has spoken, it's over /s
2025-06-26 10:38:26
Here's a magic trick. Look at the PnL of top holders of both sides. The one that's higher will win.
2025-06-26 10:55:26
Better to take the L, sell and move on, instead of doubling down on shares that will go to 0
2025-06-26 10:56:47
Yeah. Just a few days ago, I sold all my Cuomo at a loss and switched to the winning side. You gotta know when you've lost.
2025-06-26 11:01:16
Betting on suit market N, and Mamdani to win NYC General
2025-06-26 11:01:43
Yeah so glad I turned that situation around into 70K+ profit
2025-06-26 14:34:19
[link removed] Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio on Thursday.
2025-06-26 14:34:36
Ggs
2025-06-26 14:37:37
It is definitely -EV for me to sell here, but it's 7am and I stayed up all night lol
2025-06-26 14:42:31
Why do you like lighting money on fire? And whose alt are you, actually
2025-06-27 04:36:09
What happened?
2025-06-27 04:46:45
No thanks
2025-06-28 00:19:47
hell yeah!
2025-06-28 01:16:18
99.3% P4 so far
2025-06-28 01:32:10
ty
2025-06-28 01:35:20
seems reasonable to derisk there if FV is 97, bet size would exceed Half Kelly
2025-06-28 05:07:00
I dunno, kinda dumb tbh. The vote is nearly a lock at this point.
2025-06-28 05:09:12
I have literally explained every step of the way on Discord (and here). If you still bet despite the explanation, it's on you.
2025-06-28 05:13:25
I've only traded this from my main account, this month. And no, I'm not this random retard.
2025-06-28 05:14:45
I was thinking maybe you guys see one small guy voted P2 and increase the price. Then I could get N shares lower, later.
2025-06-28 05:15:54
ty, smart cookie
2025-06-28 05:44:57
Yep, as it was last month. But even if one disagrees (fair), need to understand that they already decided on this a month back. The decision is not going to change.
2025-06-28 07:40:44
?
2025-06-28 07:47:23
UMA
2025-06-28 07:47:27
wdym
2025-06-28 07:50:20
nom nom nom
2025-06-28 09:18:56
Ok bro
2025-06-28 12:25:07
Ggs
2025-06-28 20:59:30
Alright, super ggs
2025-06-28 21:05:09
Nope, never voted or even staked UMA
2025-06-28 21:05:58
Yes, you lost because one of the resolution sources determined it was "destroyed" as per rules, namely the centrifuges being non-functional.
2025-06-28 22:39:28
According to Benni | UMA, it'll reach consensus if the last voter is P2. If that happens, market will immediately resolve in 2 hours.
2025-06-28 22:40:00
And then N holders will be able to redeem shares for $0
2025-06-28 22:47:49
Rounding errors
2025-06-28 22:55:42
Wdym
2025-06-28 22:56:38
It's not a scam just because the platform ruled against your side. And you can't seriously be expecting a free 25X return on your 4c shares.
2025-06-28 22:57:01
Don't light your money on fire, it's over
2025-06-28 23:11:22
Most rational N poster in comments. Except for the gameable part.
2025-06-29 05:22:38
I'm hungry, pls fill me 😣. I'm a hungry, hungry hippo 🦛
2025-06-29 05:26:13
18.6 hours
2025-06-29 20:53:01
Market resolves Y in 28 hours, FYI
2025-06-29 20:56:00
If you mean verifier, that's a program where people check proposals to see if there are mistakes. Anyone can join, and I'd recommend this in general.
2025-06-29 22:38:13
We have less than 30 hours for Zelenskyy to come out wearing a tuxedo, gl
2025-06-29 22:48:36
See clarification and previous dispute. The resolver already made the determination last month.
2025-06-30 02:48:34
Looks like almost 1M in P4 voters have flipped to P2 this round. Probably over at this point.
2025-06-30 03:05:50
Well, your shares are worthless. I do personally want I recoup capital for other bonds, tho.
2025-07-03 13:15:59
I just like the bet tbh 🐎
2025-07-09 00:01:59
The market will literally resolve in minutes and people are still buying Y. Amazing...
2025-07-09 00:18:51
Wdym
2025-07-09 00:20:19
For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an "emergency override" or "manual review period".
2025-07-09 00:21:38
That is a scam. Sell all your Y before he market resolves shortly
2025-07-09 00:23:49
No
2025-07-09 00:36:32
See everyone in the next markets
2025-07-13 18:15:54
I just woke up and am confused why market moved, almost had a heart attack
2025-07-13 18:44:13
I woke up at a bad time
2025-07-13 18:47:11
Can't believe I lost 23K on How to Train Your Dragon 🐉
2025-07-13 18:53:08
I want to make it all back
2025-07-13 18:57:30
I think it'll do well tonight tho, Superman is a classic American hero
2025-07-13 19:04:54
Ty
2025-07-13 19:32:05
Guess the pamp is over, rip
2025-07-13 19:40:08
Guess so, sometimes people pump brackets even when there's no new data
2025-07-13 20:48:35
The pump and dump was 116-124. It pumped for no reason off no new info.
2025-07-13 21:10:35
Nope
2025-07-13 21:11:46
superman is pretty popular so gonna be great walk-ups tonight 🍻 dunno maybe 95%?
2025-07-13 21:30:07
The last number we got is 125
2025-07-13 21:30:55
MOMO lmao love that GIF 😂
2025-07-13 21:39:04
Should be 97 for 124, no?
2025-07-13 21:58:43
?
2025-07-13 23:08:35
This one is straightforward, box office numbers. There is no interpretation question. If you aren't experienced trading, you'll probably lose on average.
2025-07-13 23:56:25
The most likely outcome is the last number we got, which is 125
2025-07-14 02:39:26
nice try for a pump
2025-07-14 02:40:29
yeah I remember losing 23K
2025-07-14 03:21:27
I lost 23K on how to train your dragon, it is what it is
2025-07-14 03:32:35
?
2025-07-14 03:33:20
Don't know what to tell you. You can't win every bet, and HTTYD was my largest box office miss of all time.
2025-07-14 03:34:48
tomorrow morning/afternoon
2025-07-14 03:43:19
Thanks for being reasonable. Though I do not think I am an asshole. I generally warn people and share info. I think for some reason this is having the opposite effect, somehow?
2025-07-14 03:44:09
meh not true
2025-07-14 03:45:31
This is just a bet on how good Sunday is, nothing to do with the estimates.
2025-07-14 03:51:26
I don't understand. You can't claim everything is insider trading when your side is down. This is BOX OFFICE, not a disputed market.
2025-07-14 03:59:21
Even if there were no UMA system and Polymarket were centralized, they are still going to make decisions and resolve markets consistently. If anything, the suit guys were the ones attempting to manipulate UMA by manufacturing a media frenzy, contacting UMA staff including the CEO, and threatening violence.
2025-07-14 04:42:42
It's been 125M since the morning, and I posted as much. That's the last number we got. Would take a fairly bad drop to go below 124M.
2025-07-14 04:46:34
Markets are never closed until resolution. It was kept open because Y guys kept disputing (and because a kid pulled a prank and proposed Y before deadline, which due to the 48-hour vote cycle artificially extended the time an extra 4 days). Team Y just argued 3 disputes in a row despite it being decided the first one of the three. Normally, a market should just go by and resolve normally after that, but too many people were willing to burn their money and keep market open.
2025-07-14 04:49:09
No. The final numbers will be released everywhere, including thenumbers, box office mojo, box office report, etc. So a mis-report would not matter. We'd know.
2025-07-14 05:07:48
Doesn't matter, as it would be quite clear if the number reported differs from every other agency and the studio itself. Just explaining why this conspiracy theory is nonsense.
2025-07-14 05:09:53
No, they are not
2025-07-14 05:12:26
That is from Sunday morning, just an estimate
2025-07-14 05:34:50
Well it isn't rocket science. The last number that mattered, was 125 this morning. Doesn't seem like evening sales were bad, so we should be in line with that projection. Betting on the under was always just betting on a steep drop-off.
2025-07-14 05:38:56
We are getting nowhere, here. If you guys want, just DM me on Discord (aenews).
2025-07-14 05:39:54
Jatinder updated in the morning. He tweeted, indicating 125M+. This was also after the first 122M estimate from WB.
2025-07-14 05:56:45
Studios always have estimates over the weekend, and typically the "actuals" get posted on Monday.
2025-07-14 06:25:37
Well, I've thought FV 95% since the morning, when we got the 125M projection. Sadly, I woke up late and missed the pump.
2025-07-14 06:36:10
Sure. I agree it should be clearer for new traders. I sent feedback that if Polymarket clarifies and wants UMA to decided a market, and there's a longer strike that hasn't resolved, then they should codify the decision via clarification for clarity.
2025-07-14 06:44:05
I am probably going to wake up in the middle of the night dreaming about the number dropping, ngl
2025-07-14 07:19:04
Made 1M in 2024 and 500K+ in 2025. That's all profits from markets.
2025-07-14 07:44:37
Try again, but isolate to drops for only July movies.
2025-07-14 10:03:37
gn, I will try to sleep in next hour or two
2025-07-14 10:44:10
His 🍑
2025-07-14 15:42:58
amen, I'll fully admit I woke up after 4 hours of sleep shaking. Glad it's over
2025-07-14 15:45:15
Superman finished HIGHER on SUN than estimated! Domestic opening wknd #boxoffice was $125M vs $122M est with SUN gross holding GREAT and hitting $31.3M (-17% vs SAT) compared to estimate of $28.2M (-25%).
2025-07-14 15:46:25
The latest data is studio reporting 125 updated
2025-07-14 15:50:06
They haven't updated yet. The studio (WB) did, however.
2025-07-14 15:51:22
It was definitely a nice compilation, at least. But I think you underestimated how good July drops can be on good WOM movies.
2025-07-14 15:52:21
Well tbf, jatinder posted it yesterday morning. Usually the market just follows his posts, but maybe new traders unaware.
2025-07-14 15:52:40
I was sweating ngl
2025-07-14 15:59:22
Playing dirty = posting all day yesterday about 125M? I shared a lotta sauce.
2025-07-14 16:01:35
Takes time to update
2025-07-14 16:02:15
Thanks! You too bro.
2025-07-14 16:06:41
It'll update to the 125 estimate sometime soon, unless they wait and just post the exact. Either way, it'll update today.
2025-07-14 16:07:43
I do like that guy, if he hits me up on Discord I'll consider. One of the guys who lost against me in box office last year ended up making 1M since then. Gotta start somewhere.
2025-07-14 16:09:59
Feel free to hmu on Discord (aenews)
2025-07-14 16:10:59
No. What is posted is just a studio estimate from Sunday morning. It'll be uodated next to the new studio estimate of 125M, or directly to the exact numbers. Either way, will update to 125M today.
2025-07-14 16:11:38
Bro, I just bought shares and put my money where my mouth is
2025-07-14 16:13:13
aenews
2025-07-14 16:22:44
Well they are both estimates. Sunday morning estimates aren't accurate tho, and Monday morning estimates (if provided at all) will be spot-on.
2025-07-14 16:23:36
Yeah that's fair, how big a bet is just depends on your roll
2025-07-14 16:25:34
I went by Charlie mainly, and sales for evening last night seemed good. The drop is actually normal for a good WOM movie in July.
2025-07-14 16:41:15
I do it full time
2025-07-14 16:41:30
Done
2025-07-14 16:43:27
It's not an alternate account. It's the same, primary account I've used since January 2024.
2025-07-14 16:53:14
There's no dump, wdym. I only bought shares lol
2025-07-14 17:08:18
Thanks!
2025-07-14 21:01:03
Deadpool last year, for one
2025-07-14 21:01:20
No, but I can discuss and maybe share tips
2025-07-14 21:02:37
Naw this isn't true, considering Jatinder posted 125M very shortly after the 122M studio estimate. WB definitely lowballed, they do it often.
2025-07-14 21:04:09
I don't think I deposited more than 50-90K up through 2023. Basically all the money I have is from market profits.
2025-07-14 21:12:31
Definitely, thanks for being a reasonable guy. Deadpool just last July, for instance, was a mere 13% drop on Sunday. So this is far from unprecedented, it just happened last year at the same time for the same genre. Here we ended up with a 17% drop, and could have afforded up to a 19.4% drop.
2025-07-14 23:07:37
Ggs, ty
2025-07-14 23:31:37
Yeah, sounds good
2025-07-16 20:36:44
Low-energy Cuomo got absolutely demolished already. He is not winning the General unless everyone else drops and endorses him.
2025-07-19 08:23:31
Confused how FV could be less than 80c? Seems very likely the board will issue a further statement, probably early next week. This just gives Bryon time to get his affairs in order.
2025-07-25 05:41:25
Who wtf are you
2025-07-25 06:35:53
Lol. Not retired, all usernames including aenews and aenews2 are preserved. But username selection is case sensitive.
2025-07-25 06:36:02
😂😂
2025-07-26 10:09:55
He's got plenty more probs
2025-07-26 10:42:10
Ok cool. When will you share the proof?
2025-07-26 10:57:03
The bad news, you just lost $50K. The good news? You can still get a few bucks back.
2025-07-26 11:24:42
Shit! 😃
2025-07-26 11:25:02
?
2025-07-26 11:27:27
I wanted to sleep, but this market is like crack
2025-07-26 12:58:06
Buy more 💀
2025-07-26 13:05:51
Rando dude really lit $60K on fire 🔥 for the lolz 😁
2025-07-27 00:42:59
how did he know?
2025-07-27 06:51:28
I can't believe I lost 80K and this guy made 140K. Well, onto the next one. Mistakes made, lessons learned.
2025-07-31 00:34:00
eventually
2025-07-31 00:34:20
soon it'll all be over
2025-08-04 08:25:10
Dumbass gopfan, time to trust kapii next month
2025-08-12 22:33:31
It's probably fair to say there's 15% chance of delay/cancellation
2025-08-14 08:18:13
It ain't over till the fat lady sings!
2025-08-20 19:34:15
=(
2025-08-21 21:50:26
Thanks for the free money 💸
2025-08-21 22:08:11
More big donations lined up, methinks
2025-08-21 22:08:46
I love pesto! Maybe should rename my alt pestosauce tbh
2025-08-22 00:31:57
Oh true, I should buy more there. Queued up, ty 😘
2025-08-22 04:32:33
$23 bro
2025-08-24 23:31:25
Who tf is that
2025-08-25 22:22:10
Come on, buy more N truthteller!
2025-08-25 22:38:40
I don't understand. I don't even know who you are ❓
2025-08-26 07:33:19
Lol
2025-08-26 20:37:27
Haters aren't going to win this one. Even if folks illegally succeed in swatting Lord Miles, Polymarket will rule against them. Oh, and the lawsuit is just pure retardation 😆
2025-08-26 21:47:14
Windwalk essentially threatened Miles, swatting implicitly is one of the means.
2025-08-28 03:18:52
[link removed]. truthteller, the insiders have come with the hammer! 🔨
2025-08-28 03:28:16
Yes, it might be!
2025-08-28 03:31:47
Oh he's still going, maybe it's made of diamond 💎
2025-08-28 03:37:24
Really
2025-08-28 03:40:05
Your buying pattern makes it look like you know the result
2025-08-28 09:22:15
I really can't make up my mind
2025-08-28 17:15:39
These guys have 4 subscribers and can't even tell if the videos are real or AI generated
2025-08-28 21:30:55
blockchain is never closed
2025-08-28 21:48:05
Not really, I myself have nearly this much
2025-08-28 23:03:53
how'd you get the inside scoop
2025-08-29 05:24:28
mrbeast says ah shucks too bad we didn't make it but it was close enough!
2025-08-29 05:25:41
Is it +ev to spend 4M to make 40K
2025-08-31 02:20:29
Let's take it to 50/50
2025-08-31 04:43:06
Here's some secret alpha: we're hitting 40M today. thank me later!
2025-08-31 04:43:38
you don't want the children to have water?
2025-08-31 05:11:51
pretty easy to just donate and put it over, frankly
2025-08-31 05:37:26
can't believe I sold N at 6c!
2025-08-31 06:28:48
brother, just sell while you're up, it's very obvious that big donations will come through today
2025-08-31 10:05:57
I mean. I did have that idea, but I sold the 9c shares at 6c. Cause they seemed worthless. Definitely should have held those and reloaded Y cheaper! It's fine tho.
2025-08-31 18:00:04
gm guys, I see N guys gave up the pump?
2025-08-31 18:06:07
only 700-800K more needed probs
2025-08-31 18:08:49
If Poly traders really ddos'd Poly would likely not honor N. A blatant rig like that happened before, and it was overridden.
2025-08-31 21:01:10
yep
2025-08-31 21:02:54
live on stream
2025-08-31 22:35:10
Hate to say itys, just a few hundred K to go and the stream hasn't even started yet 😂
2025-08-31 22:49:51
correct
2025-08-31 22:53:47
I'm a simple man, marinara is great
2025-08-31 22:54:41
If one thinks FV is 99, then it's a sell at 99.5 and buy at 98c. Is this so difficult to comprehend?
2025-09-01 00:50:31
ggs
2025-09-01 03:23:31
Alright guys, who's ready to rinse and repeat with 42M?
2025-09-01 03:24:39
This seems like a reading comprehension issue
2025-09-01 04:59:05
well I nearly tripled my wins betting on 41M
2025-09-01 05:00:17
ggs, cannot believe I made another 25K here and winning bracket was 1c
2025-09-01 09:26:18
Thanks!
2025-09-02 03:38:48
*and prove the haters wrong
2025-09-02 03:39:13
facts, N holders are such asses
2025-09-03 20:42:10
I'd bet my life savings if I could
2025-09-04 21:04:24
Great bond for N, I expect price will be close to 90s within a week
2025-09-05 23:00:54
Thanks for the fills noobs, I've got 120K shares total!
2025-09-06 00:01:07
People overreacted to him not immediately dropping out. If he drops out, he'll want some leverage. Today's announcement was gamesmanship, an act to project strength. He also left the door open to dropping out, just no decision today. Reporting also indicates he may decide in the next few weeks.
2025-09-06 19:57:41
Yes, he can't be a beta cuck
2025-09-08 04:15:22
Clear scam attempt, don't send them money
2025-09-12 00:53:11
What time? You'll need to do a lot better than market rate if you want a lot of shares.
2025-09-12 00:53:38
hmu on Discord @aenews or Twitter aenews_PI
2025-09-12 10:43:46
The randomly selected 3 member panel for the US Court of Appeals consists of 2 Biden nominees and 1 Trump nominee. They will definitely rule in favor of Lisa Cook.
2025-09-12 10:54:13
?
2025-09-12 12:19:28
Yes, but it was not previously a given that federal court and appeals court would side with Cook. So odds for N should be higher right now if SC is the only remaining avenue.
2025-09-12 12:27:59
It should affect market odds significantly. If court of appeals were unfavorable, they could have stayed and Cook could have been out. That possibility is gone now, so N should be higher.
2025-09-12 13:00:37
For the 3 panel? That's just public knowledge, released yesterday.
2025-09-12 21:59:47
[link removed] Lol appears the administration actually has no case against Cook.
2025-09-12 22:00:53
The documents cited by Pulte include standardized federal mortgage paperwork which stipulates that each loan obtained by Cook for the Atlanta and Michigan properties is meant for a “primary residence.” But documentation reviewed by Reuters for the Atlanta home, filed with a court in Georgia’s Fulton County, clearly says the stipulation exists “unless Lender otherwise agrees in writing.” The loan estimate, a document prepared by the credit union, states “Property Use: Vacation Home.” The document appears to help Cook’s case, said two real-estate experts who aren’t involved in representing her. That’s because it indicates that during the loan-application process, she told the lender she intended to use the property as a vacation home.
2025-09-12 23:24:27
Some rando negative P/L guy thinks he knows better than Reuters. Them bags must be heavy 💀
2025-09-13 03:41:49
Currently being discussed in market-review
2025-09-13 12:46:35
If you want more shares, I put up a block for you satoshi
2025-09-13 23:34:35
Dumped all of my N at a loss and switched to Y just in the nick of time. Still salty tho, that book was being terrorized and I was revenge trading 😳
2025-09-14 18:40:10
Strange how this market has negative time depreciation of N. You'd think Y goes up the closer we get to 40.
2025-09-14 19:09:33
Pretty insane cope for this market to be below 98c rn 😆
2025-09-15 06:06:33
These N guys are so gullible that they think the word gullible is actually in the dictionary
2025-09-15 06:08:05
He's putting it in the freezer to eat after the challenge, along with the sauted cat.
2025-09-15 07:24:11
Lol Miles shot down the attempted rig with a bat to a cake. The N guys are just idiots who tried to bribe a millionaire and failed. [link removed]
2025-09-15 07:25:29
?
2025-09-15 22:56:01
agreed
2025-09-16 00:21:52
LOL the Court of Appeals eviscerated the government claims and denied the motion to stay. "FURTHER ORDERED that the motion for stay and administrative stay be denied. Appellants have not satisfied the stringent requirements for a stay pending appeal." [link removed]
2025-09-16 00:48:33
Yes, looks like you're living in an alternate reality
2025-09-16 01:19:13
I don't understand. The ruling was as expected. If anything, this should marginally increase N.
2025-09-16 01:19:41
You may need to re-read those cases
2025-09-16 11:09:05
You're on crack bro ✊ that said, please let me know if you want more shares. I'd do a fat stack at the right price.
2025-09-16 12:15:44
ggs
2025-09-16 12:29:40
sold too low, unfortunately, kinda sleepy
2025-09-17 02:17:12
Seems dumb that N guys keep moving goalposts every time there is a favorable development for Cook or lack of SC response. Price should not be flat 💀
2025-09-17 20:06:49
Spoiler: Disinflation and Inflationary do not count
2025-09-17 20:39:00
If I had a nickel for every time the inflation 50 flipped, I'd be a millionaire by now 😓
2025-09-17 22:53:58
N holders caught a lucky break and have a chance to sell high and exit. No one to blame but yourself if you miss this pump and hold to 0.
2025-09-17 23:23:19
Time decay with no news is also fair, tho. It's been 30 min since I posted.
2025-09-17 23:59:44
Dumped all my shares, rip. Taking longer than I thought for Miles to post an update. We'll see when he gets back up and running.
2025-09-18 02:00:22
Alright guys, guess Team N was right after all. Good luck to everyone.
2025-09-18 03:31:47
ggs, I guess. I will accept there was obvious insider trading / information asymmetry in this market.
2025-09-18 03:40:56
At least I ended +$1500 instead of negative, I guess
2025-09-18 04:10:13
I made more in this market than you!
2025-09-18 07:43:18
ty for the free money mr bot
2025-09-18 09:24:38
I have no idea what's going on
2025-09-18 18:25:58
Bro is literally hospitalized, gaps of footage over a day, and broke fast with glucose? That would just mean it's over if true.
2025-09-18 18:30:15
lol
2025-09-18 18:32:58
Yeah doubt it's real, it's just a rando posting
2025-09-18 20:55:35
wizard is right
2025-09-18 22:15:40
[link removed]. Lord Miles
2025-09-18 23:25:21
Been nearly 2 days with zero communication from Miles. It's over. Even if he comes back, it's just a scam operation and we won't have consensus that he completed the fast.
2025-09-18 23:45:31
What excuse could you possibly give for zero communication in two days? He previously even said he has Starlink. It is not possible that he couldn't tweet. He is clearly just scamming. He will have no credibility even if he post-hoc comes up with an excuse.
2025-09-18 23:54:05
No this makes no sense. There is simply no way he wouldn't have internet access for this long. It must be intentional.
2025-09-19 00:15:25
Yes
2025-09-19 00:29:27
??
2025-09-19 03:04:29
lol
2025-09-19 07:39:48
damn can't believe the alpha has been leaked, guess N will go to 80s now
2025-09-19 07:42:35
yeah he leaked the sauce, Miles has had large amounts of N
2025-09-19 08:15:52
I sold in case he double rugs, though probably he won't finish the fast
2025-09-19 08:21:31
one of the top N holders (satan) dumped some shares
2025-09-19 08:22:42
sure im aenews on Discord
2025-09-19 08:47:57
I mean. I ain't holding in 80's and risking it, at least.
2025-09-19 09:10:38
yeesh glad I sold out
2025-09-19 10:00:56
yeah it's up to him, and he may push this to Y or well, whatever he wants
2025-09-19 10:42:52
I feel you, this market is like crack
2025-09-19 20:56:51
🍿
2025-09-19 20:57:30
I mean, he already did lol
2025-09-19 21:57:58
yes
2025-09-19 23:44:57
if proposed, it must have happened, ez
2025-09-22 00:22:44
My Miles insider trade alerts finally popped off, whew 🙌
2025-09-22 00:56:42
well
2025-09-22 01:44:33
I'm not buying anything rn, will wait and see 👀
2025-09-22 04:17:22
:susge:
2025-09-22 23:00:59
Still more than a month for RFK to issue a stronger statement confirming a cause(s) for autism. Also way better bonds out there like Mamdani, whereas this one could go to 100 if RFK has a quack day.
2025-09-22 23:51:56
We do not need clinical studies for this market, it's about what RFK claims. Today, his claims were not strong enough, but it is at least plausible that will change with more than a month to go. Regardless, even if there were only a 5% chance, this is a very shitty bond compared to Mamdani and other markets.
2025-09-23 02:27:16
ggs
2025-09-26 01:38:37
Not how it works. It's just however Polymarket interprets their rules.
2025-09-26 01:39:20
Seems circular. More like when he dumps, market reacts.
2025-09-26 01:39:46
He's dumb and a has-been washed trader
2025-09-26 02:02:52
no he's laughing at himself, with tears in his eyes
2025-09-26 05:24:26
Sadly, someone notified me that there's precedent where Polymarket ruled N when Trump switched locations (but still continuing discussion). Guess the exact location matters more than I thought, oh well.
2025-09-26 09:32:45
See everyone in the next market
2025-09-27 06:05:57
It will be settled in some minutes, and then you can redeem your shares
2025-09-27 06:07:49
Personally, I was arguing with folks about it, but folks don't think it's an apology.
2025-09-27 06:11:20
I'm just picking up pennies since it is over
2025-09-28 19:33:54
Come back to us Miles! We believe in you!
2025-09-28 22:52:23
If Miles doesn't post video evidence soon, seems possible that Polymarket could just clarify N today or tomorrow morning.
2025-09-28 22:58:02
or until it is otherwise confirmed that Lord Miles has either: completed the fast, violated it such that it cannot be completed in the time frame, or abandoned and discontinued it.
2025-09-28 23:06:50
I'm aware. But the platform could shut it down based on that tweet.
2025-09-28 23:27:07
he edited out the "me" in the original tweet to "him" lol, obviously a psy-op written by Miles
2025-09-28 23:52:04
This is a tweet that Miles posted from his account
2025-10-01 04:40:16
It's over, bro
2025-10-01 04:56:41
Unbelievable that some dumbos are buying N when the market has already concluded. Not that I'm complaining.
2025-10-01 04:58:36
who in their right mind would burn $750 when it's over
2025-10-01 06:40:12
lol, thanks guys for the free $1000
2025-10-01 06:40:33
ggs see everyone in the shutdown duration markets
2025-10-01 15:15:33
Thanks for playing
2025-10-01 20:20:27
No, he went big just before it was clarified
2025-10-01 20:45:15
SatoshiAncap probably developed his thesis by asking ChatGPT what the odds were, and just rolled with it
2025-10-01 20:45:54
:copium:
2025-10-01 22:12:57
All AI's basically think she'd be out because they assume the SC will side with the administration / issue a stay. Tried ChatGPT and Gemini previously.
2025-10-02 08:50:04
hi, can you buy again? ty
2025-10-02 23:32:20
Only if there is a pre-clarification
2025-10-03 22:34:00
Hope the naysayers buy even more shares
2025-10-03 23:38:34
The platform already clarified. And there just wasn't any consensus when we reached the market deadline.
2025-10-05 00:36:45
don't give up!
2025-10-07 05:47:06
how'd you know??
2025-10-07 07:15:03
This possibly should have counted given the Hannity precedent. There was no Department of Education mention in the live cable/satellite broadcast, but it was in the full interview that later went up online on Fox Nation. It was clarified to count only aired content, and it resolved YES.
2025-10-07 07:15:27
Seems too late now tho, unfortunately
2025-10-07 07:17:50
There is the precedent from Hannity, too late now tho
2025-10-07 21:47:18
The losing side looses 100% of their bond. Link doesn't seem to be working but the market is "What will Trump/Elon say during Hannity interview?". The strike was "Department of Education" which was only mentioned in the full interview posted online.
2025-10-09 12:13:31
@satoshiancap come get 'em bud
2025-10-10 01:37:46
I've seen enough. Maria Corina Machado wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
2025-10-17 07:42:55
he's a beta, it's to be expected
2025-10-21 03:13:04
thanks for playing
2025-10-21 03:27:40
Does anyone have a valid explanation for these buys without insiders? I'll be waiting...
2025-10-21 03:43:16
Non public doesn't mean illegal, information leaks through a million avenues before public release date is revealed
2025-10-21 04:17:36
I've had enough of losing money to insiders. Time to yolo Y on this one
2025-10-21 09:16:33
I'm a little scared
2025-10-21 09:59:09
please can we go back to 90c
2025-10-21 10:04:31
aren't you scared of the insiders?
2025-10-21 10:04:44
ok, maybe i will man up
2025-10-21 10:21:04
uhh how is that relevant? The private beta has obviously been happening for a while if it really is launching this week lol
2025-10-21 10:31:25
w/e, I'm sleepy just gonna pray I dont wake up broke ass
2025-10-21 16:34:02
gm, my price alarm woke me up
2025-10-21 16:40:42
thanks!
2025-10-21 16:51:27
oof
2025-10-22 01:47:53
The clarification clearly means this isn't satisfied. If it was, then this would have resolved 1.5 months ago 😅
2025-10-22 22:34:56
So you want to resolve the market off no developments in 1.5 months and believe Polymarket clarified incorrectly, got it.
2025-10-22 22:35:43
If Polymarket believed this was satisfied, they would have made this one resolve with the others. Simple as.
2025-10-22 23:53:01
A wise man once said, why bet 95c for a 5% return when you can bet 5c for a 1900% return /s
2025-10-25 04:37:54
lol
2025-10-25 04:38:32
I've been accruing shares for months, figured he'd visit Germany eventually
2025-10-25 05:16:44
what's so funny Xi?
2025-10-25 06:32:25
I'm watching you 👀
2025-10-25 07:25:43
The informed ones do, and certainly government officials
2025-10-25 08:12:22
Because Germany is one of the most common
2025-10-25 11:03:12
Ggs, it took folks here a pretty long time to find it lol 🐌
2025-10-25 11:31:44
It was reported an hour ago 🐌
2025-10-25 11:45:21
Looks like traders here suffer from short-term memory loss. UK resolved the same way 5 months ago.
2025-10-25 11:46:54
I tried that argument 5 months ago and wasted $750 disputing UK. Did not succeed.
2025-10-25 11:49:18
I would know as I burned $750 disputing UK 5 months ago because Trump "didn't get off the plane". The market resolved Yes, and I did not succeed.
2025-10-25 11:51:11
Yes, that's when the market was created
2025-10-25 11:55:33
Thanks!
2025-10-25 12:02:54
As I said, I already disputed in the exact same situation. All I accomplished was losing $750.
2025-10-25 12:36:02
ty!
2025-10-25 20:20:13
WH Press Pool, Public Flight Trackers (input AF1 flight tag), and news agencies reporting
2025-10-25 20:21:42
WH Press Pool
2025-10-26 05:13:13
Thanks!
2025-10-26 06:59:19
You do realize that they were seen kissing on a yacht weeks ago, and that didn't matter
2025-10-26 07:00:59
cope
2025-10-27 00:49:57
😕
2025-10-27 02:55:43
?
2025-10-27 03:37:03
Market isn't about if they are most likely dating, it's about if Trudeau/Perry confirm they are in a relationship.
2025-10-27 03:38:51
I give it a 5-10% chance
2025-10-27 05:30:22
Agreed
2025-10-27 06:12:53
No idea what you mean
2025-10-27 06:14:02
You want to resolve the market off zero change from 2 months ago...? And you weren't even in the market 2 months ago, as far as I know?
2025-10-27 07:43:48
Cope. Rules obviously aren't satisfied, and this would have resolved months ago if your interpretation held water.
2025-10-27 19:51:36
Alright, so link us to the statement, post, etc.
2025-10-27 20:03:26
Link to the statement/post from Trudeau/Perry
2025-10-28 00:33:36
ggs, 100% P4 which means that unless Tesla gets a driverless license by eoy (they will not, they are not even in the process), market will resolve N
2025-10-28 01:11:33
?
2025-10-28 02:35:57
The vote is 100% P4, so if nothing changes, market will resolve N.
2025-10-28 08:51:08
I have over 650K shares of Mamdani across sites now, whew
2025-10-28 19:23:44
In California, you need a driver in the driver's seat, unless you have a driverless permit. They can't do the safety monitor in passenger seat like Austin, in California.
2025-10-28 19:24:45
It'll resolve N at the end of the year. I'm saying with this P4 decision, that means it'll go N at the end of the year.
2025-10-28 19:26:13
It's official. P4 has met quorum and won the dispute with 99% of the vote.
2025-10-28 21:16:36
Nope. And again, the dispute has been lost. It's over.
2025-10-28 21:17:37
The dispute is already over, and P4 won with 99% of the vote.
2025-10-29 22:31:20
Easy dubs, got it right as expected
2025-10-29 22:31:44
n00b, get rekt
2025-11-02 17:51:29
😂
2025-11-02 21:57:50
lifts, removes, or reduces **any**
2025-11-03 03:32:34
Whales do not have a significant amount of UMA. And Polymarket clarifies and decides almost all disputed markets these days anyways. The guy is misinformed. Also, the market resolved as no one disputed (anyone can dispute).
2025-11-03 04:24:36
Props to Geek for acknowledging rather than complaining. I think he could be a winner in the future.
2025-11-03 20:25:16
Why in the world is Mamdani 50% market still at 59c? People should be buying more N there if this main market is at 91c. https://polymarket.com/event/will-mamdani-get-over-50-of-the-vote-in-the-general-mayoral-election
2025-11-03 21:39:44
You seem to be suffering from a bout of stupidity. I want MORE Y shares in all Mamdani markets.
2025-11-03 21:40:09
? no idea what you're smoking 🚬
2025-11-03 21:43:35
I now have almost 1M in exposure on Mamdani. More than half my port is on my boy 👦
2025-11-03 22:03:40
aenews
2025-11-03 22:04:21
? what exactly does that mean
2025-11-03 22:48:11
It's obviously an endorsement, guys
2025-11-03 23:02:30
Endorsement literally helps Mamdani lol
2025-11-04 00:28:08
Folks who are still voting Sliwa are less convinceable. Trump endorsing Cuomo has a beneficial boost for eday dem turnout/persuasion for Mamdani over Cuomo, which is more important. Besides, some consolidation doesn't really matter when Mamdani will be getting 50% or close anyways.
2025-11-05 07:13:33
Can't believe I lost 90K on retarded rules
2025-11-05 08:33:34
Yes, I lost 90K. Multiple accounts.
2025-11-05 08:34:00
All hail Thonker, the greatest man to ever do it
2025-11-05 08:34:29
Yeah nearly an entire month 🗿
2025-11-05 21:23:44
there was a strike bro
2025-11-06 01:56:27
It was already disputed and ruled twice that it is not satisfied. All that's left is waiting for the year to end, then market resolves N. Unless of course, Tesla takes action to acquire a higher-level permit (they are not even in the process of this, as they don't want it). Which will not happen. There was a chance of this a couple months ago, but it's not really plausible now.
2025-11-06 08:34:46
Like a phoenix, Thonker has risen from the ashes
2025-11-06 23:21:24
Fair. There is some evidence of a strike, but no consensus of reporting from non-Lebanese outlets that Israel did a strike on Nov 4.
2025-11-06 23:23:51
It's a N due to lack of consensus beyond Lebanese outlets that Israel did a strike on Lebanon on 11/4.
2025-11-06 23:25:18
It's nothing to do with the permit. I'm just explaining that without the permit, Tesla can't meet the rules requirement in California (but this level of permit is totally ok for Austin, to meet the rules). California is stricter, so that is why we have drivers in the driver's seat positioned for active control.
2025-11-06 23:26:26
And thus, there is basically nothing that could resolve this Y by the end of the year. Because they can't do the bare minimum safety monitor in passenger seat so quickly as they are not even in the process of getting permission for it.
2025-11-07 00:11:35
for Lebanon? should resolve soon. Robotaxi will only resolve eoy.
2025-11-07 00:53:50
Because it obviously would lose, no one was willing to light $750 on fire
2025-11-08 03:18:34
Is Biden less senile now
2025-11-08 04:17:33
seems kinda delulu
2025-11-08 04:43:18
A few days ago, Polymarket ruled against me and i lost $90K. Let's run it back 💀 fill me!
2025-11-08 04:46:05
lol
2025-11-08 05:47:36
It's still there, it's the wall
2025-11-10 04:24:51
ggs
2025-11-11 07:02:19
ggs it seems
2025-11-11 09:18:25
woah did not expect to be over 29%
2025-11-13 04:28:58
thanks for playing
2025-11-14 07:37:27
?
2025-11-14 07:37:36
nom nom nom
2025-11-17 22:32:34
you must be new here
2025-11-17 23:40:08
so that means Mamdani is a lock for 9+, got it
2025-11-18 02:41:09
This is a LOCK 🔒 for 9+, change my mind
2025-11-18 02:41:50
That's election night bro, and exactly. Don't need much to get to 9.
2025-11-18 03:09:10
There's nothing to indicate they'll favor Cuomo? It can fall short because there aren't that many ballots, this is close.
2025-11-18 03:09:38
not sure what you mean, I have said nothing about military ballots.
2025-11-18 03:10:09
doubt
2025-11-19 05:41:05
cope, you are WASHED 🧼
2025-11-20 06:30:17
Yeah as I've said many times elsewhere, these guys are dumb. The hammer price is always shown live.
2025-11-20 07:43:31
People torched a couple thousand because they didn't watch live and can't read!
2025-11-22 00:59:01
That's easy?
2025-11-22 03:14:30
down with car 🚗
2025-11-22 03:25:36
which side do I bond?
2025-11-22 04:22:32
Decided to bond N, is it over?
2025-11-24 03:24:52
out of curiosity, what's everyone trading on
2025-11-24 10:26:39
yeah that's been my hope, but I think cooked
2025-11-25 01:19:57
Both sides have valid points, but N is the stronger argument.
2025-11-25 01:20:17
problem is, you need one Yes reveal first
2025-11-25 01:45:20
It is disingenuous to say the opposing view is disingenuous. You don't see me doing that.
2025-11-25 02:04:17
Posting blatant misinformation is not a good look
2025-11-27 11:45:25
Thanks
2025-11-27 11:47:24
I'm pretty lost on why people love the under so much tbh, Mamdani is obviously going to increase his margin significantly. Just a question of if it'll be enough to get over 9.
2025-11-27 21:52:09
vote that heavily favors Mamdani, no? 70K is not too far from what I have too ig
2025-11-27 21:53:37
Math
2025-11-28 08:49:29
Looks like I can make up for my horrific blunder last week on Wicked with Zootopia this week 🎉
2025-11-28 08:50:16
😍
2025-11-28 08:50:42
Did you defy gravity, son?
2025-11-28 10:45:59
Because that's worth 0, outside moe
2025-11-28 20:53:57
where are you seeing that
2025-11-29 06:17:38
Can someone explain why we're flipping?
2025-11-29 11:05:40
800K does not change 8M. The guy who moved the market last night told me f'd up. I agree it's likely closer than expected, but not sure what people are looking at to determine this.
2025-11-29 11:08:08
Previews are always included
2025-11-29 11:31:20
I feel zen, like wagmi ✌ hope not cope 🙏
2025-11-29 13:14:02
wdym by hedge? Either I win or lose. Can buy more or sell at loss. But how would I hedge?
2025-11-29 13:15:13
Reading is hard, ain't it
2025-11-30 13:31:07
yes
2025-11-30 18:12:48
Hi, that's me
2025-12-01 00:23:52
😿
2025-12-01 00:24:01
👋
2025-12-01 14:03:57
🚽
2025-12-01 18:22:08
[link removed]
2025-12-01 18:27:52
ggs
2025-12-01 18:36:41
? No I bet on 157+
2025-12-01 18:38:59
buy more
2025-12-01 19:57:21
The wait was over a few hours ago
2025-12-02 14:03:20
I don't know
2025-12-02 14:18:49
I lost a lot of money, rip
2025-12-03 00:10:57
ggs, perhaps
2025-12-03 00:47:30
Does not make sense to hold this. If you really believe it'll happen, just buy Y in the new identical June 2026 market. The current market resolves N in 30 days.
2025-12-03 00:48:21
I'll offer a discount on exiting at 1-2c just because I don't care about 1-2% in a month. See y'all in the next market!
2025-12-03 01:27:43
lol you bonders must be feeling queasy af rn
2025-12-03 05:47:50
That would be manipulation
2025-12-03 05:48:23
Free money is free, possibly
2025-12-03 12:01:11
ty for the fills
2025-12-03 12:06:01
I dunno, the smart buys were buying so I copied
2025-12-03 12:07:49
?
2025-12-03 12:17:17
@cryptolion Why you so bullish? 😆
2025-12-03 12:20:03
This is just gibberish
2025-12-03 12:31:02
Lmao 😂 Well if he wants a bail-out, it can be arranged. Otherwise good luck, cause his side is likely going to 0.
2025-12-03 12:32:40
Did you try actually projecting the remaining vote? This is a simple trick I used in Mamdani margin, where I just made 70K. It wasn't even close, when results released.
2025-12-03 13:23:59
I don't think you'll be able to afford the plane back with that position 💀
2025-12-03 13:27:21
Congratulations to everyone who can do math and correctly predicted Nasry would be gaining votes.
2025-12-03 13:31:21
Nothing is for certain, but yeah, probably ✌
2025-12-03 13:32:49
I have Nasry on both sites. I did have both sides for this too, but I sold Nasralla here and switched to big Nasry.
2025-12-03 13:43:54
I'm gonna sleep soon, so not sure it matters. Always funny seeing a rando with 10 shares larping in the comments
2025-12-03 20:13:13
gm cryptolion
2025-12-03 20:23:38
You seem to be really struggling with math if you think I lost 200K on shutdown 😆
2025-12-03 20:25:03
gm 🐊
2025-12-03 21:28:45
*yawn*
2025-12-03 22:04:01
rip to the zone guy who bonded at 99.9c N 💀
2025-12-03 22:15:25
???
2025-12-03 22:16:51
So let me get this straight. The gap keeps narrowing and Nasralla stans think that's... good for them?
2025-12-03 22:18:23
lol
2025-12-03 22:51:52
Is everyone here betting on vibes and no one doing math? lol
2025-12-04 22:30:46
Thanks for the free lunch, I guess?
2025-12-04 23:59:17
Reading comprehension is not the strong suit of Y bettors
2025-12-05 00:05:49
pays for lunch, ty
2025-12-05 04:56:45
Dude, it was disputed and lost. Polymarket specifically made a new market with identical rules for June. That implicitly means this doesn't qualify. No whipping is necessary. Polymarket didn't see a point in clarifying.
2025-12-05 11:38:06
South American country where weirdness can occur makes it not worth the tail risk to hold over 90c.
2025-12-05 11:39:18
Also, people always say this and I agree it's silly. What matters is the EV and relative size. Thinking you "only" gain 12% so bad bet, is terrible logic.
2025-12-06 04:00:01
what's everyone's guess for final margin?
2025-12-07 09:30:12
I believe
2025-12-07 14:58:17
Trying to imagine what a Y clarification from Polymarket would look like, tbh
2025-12-07 15:51:29
Correct. Polymarket resolved the April market N while Kashi resolved their market to Y off the April 24 UAP report.
2025-12-07 19:33:45
Good luck all
2025-12-07 21:27:54
There is a classic adage in these parts, "aedumps, price pumps". That should tell you everything you need to know, and why it's good for N.
2025-12-07 22:15:18
Can I undo my sells?
2025-12-08 01:31:27
gopfan and iabvek washed, why'd I tail 😭
2025-12-08 03:15:19
👌🏾
2025-12-08 05:59:18
umarocks posted P2, so ggs ig?
2025-12-08 06:06:56
I sniped on umarocks posting. How is that despicable, lol. I'm still arguing P4, just seems gg after that post. Simple as that. I'd prefer it if Polymarket still clarifies, even if I lose now (but it's structurally too late, they won't do it in the middle of voting).
2025-12-08 06:08:33
Because it's P4. I'm not going to change my argument.
2025-12-09 03:00:10
Fun, another day 🌞, another dispute 💰
2025-12-09 15:44:30
UMA originally determined suit. Then UMA determined suit. Polymarket reiterated. Then UMA finalized. (There were more iterations than this).
2025-12-09 15:47:48
.
2025-12-09 17:22:43
lol
2025-12-09 17:22:52
doubt
2025-12-10 00:05:44
I feel bad for that 100K guy. He panic dumped even though this will likely be proposed Y.
2025-12-11 18:25:08
thanks, proposed
2025-12-11 18:26:56
The last one shouldn't have counted, but it's over now. 2027 should also be Y.
2025-12-11 18:49:04
💀
2025-12-11 20:50:28
There's no black swan. It was going to resolve Y anyways, and another tweet/post was near certain to happen in the next 12+ months, anyways.
2025-12-11 20:56:48
No. The last big release was September. A tweet after one of the December batches is normal. And again, I believe it would have resolved Y regardless. And even if not, it was 99% going Y within 12-13 months even then.
2025-12-12 14:35:14
skill issue if you only tail the losing trades
2025-12-12 23:06:24
Bonders have me out of my shares, thanks. If any Y guys still want to dump, I guess maybe sol
2025-12-14 23:14:09
?
2025-12-14 23:19:09
easy money? It's been rising, and this has more than 2 weeks lol
2025-12-14 23:25:13
great 😀
2025-12-15 04:59:32
True, I did get rekt on Wicked 2 and How to Train Your Dragon...
2025-12-15 05:06:17
Is it ggs? I see N holders capitulating?
2025-12-15 05:52:30
rlly? doubt he'd dump 15c
2025-12-15 07:50:03
oof you lost luck now too, market totally flipped past few hours
2025-12-15 12:01:38
really
2025-12-16 05:05:45
saw that sell 😳
2025-12-16 05:27:20
If he gives up, I'll take the L. I've no interest in messing with TCG (or anything else) for a market.
2025-12-16 05:45:13
Kinda want off the ride, not looking as juicy anymore. Queuing sells at 79c.
2025-12-16 07:09:32
I refuse. I want to sell at profit 😫
2025-12-17 07:00:21
I bought more, please do the same!
2025-12-17 08:10:55
Alright, when are we disputing?
2025-12-17 08:23:38
Market should remain open until end of today imo
2025-12-17 08:24:39
It's not too likely it changes. Still might, tho.
2025-12-17 10:14:35
Bro it's literally called Fire and Trash 🚮
2025-12-18 09:32:53
That ship has long sailed following a dispute and creation of a new market.
2025-12-18 19:44:40
Help, why does my portfolio number keep going down??
2025-12-18 19:50:00
ez dubs
2025-12-18 20:19:23
but im so confised, the deadline is tomorrow? so they'll release tomorrow, why is price going down
2025-12-19 00:44:42
always be careful clicking links in comments
2025-12-19 00:53:26
no
2025-12-19 01:40:41
basically, buy more?
2025-12-19 04:21:13
Naw it's public
2025-12-19 04:21:33
cope and seeth
2025-12-19 04:24:21
❗
2025-12-19 04:24:40
necrophilia?
2025-12-19 04:33:01
Love how people always donate boatloads in these markets. Copium is a strong drug 💊
2025-12-19 04:36:45
but, but it's Avatar
2025-12-19 04:37:26
😂😂😂
2025-12-19 13:29:34
They literally announced they are releasing hundreds of thousands of documents today, and the Russian turds still want more? 💯
2025-12-19 14:29:25
Alex Parker needs to dump all his shares immediately, because they are imminently posting in a few hours lmao 😂
2025-12-19 14:49:28
They literally said it'll be released in 5 hours, how is this not in high 90s?
2025-12-19 14:50:00
Really need to do a case study on the brains of N guys who are still buying at this point 💀
2025-12-19 22:10:16
Seems pointless to dispute when there are clearly new photos of people with Epstein/Maxwell
2025-12-20 05:40:16
Hope you guys realize this market will take 4 days to resolve 💀 There are tons of bonds on the site that can get you 1-2%+ in the same time period.
2025-12-22 05:52:53
Just seems best to wait for some results before proposing
2025-12-22 10:18:43
Lol funny pump. Scotty got scared and dumped to fill me 50K. Nom nom.
2025-12-22 23:27:44
rip, it was a good dream tho
2025-12-22 23:31:10
wdym
2025-12-23 00:21:45
ggs
2025-12-24 16:43:44
Amazing flip
2025-12-25 02:58:36
ggs, see everyone in the next market!
2025-12-25 10:35:31
amazing 😆
2025-12-25 12:55:09
hi guys, how are we feeling? Merry Christmas! 🎅
2025-12-28 07:02:25
FV 88c imo, ez money
2025-12-28 07:03:16
Just wait for Dataset 9, and we will take this home 🚀
2025-12-29 03:06:26
😂
2025-12-29 05:20:02
So... are you chumps going to dispute or not? 😆
2025-12-29 06:14:16
no, was less than 6s
2025-12-29 12:15:50
ggs
2025-12-29 13:10:48
A 0% tariff is a legally set tariff, and it explictly was stated that rates will increase. Per rules, officially enacted qualifies regardless of when it goes into effect.
2025-12-29 13:23:50
The 0% argument is dumb as bricks, but maybe Thonker has a point with the lack of administration phrasing for this market
2025-12-29 14:15:01
ggs... again because apparently only thonker can read. No one even considered the rules would be slightly different from the previous markets
2025-12-29 14:15:38
I sold for nothing, ah well
2025-12-30 03:10:58
So just a question of if we resolve today or tmrw?
2025-12-30 09:26:19
ggs
2025-12-31 00:18:22
ty for the change
2026-01-06 21:42:42
wdym
2026-01-08 05:20:28
hyb thought he found a goldmine, but he may have just found a mine 💣
2026-01-12 00:57:06
Isn't this free money for 1550+? current number is 1558
2026-01-12 11:25:23
Oh ok, thanks. Should I dump, then?
2026-01-12 22:22:02
link?
2026-01-12 23:17:22
Ambiguous = No, reading comprehension issue
2026-01-13 00:21:42
I don't see what you mean tho, confused
2026-01-13 00:23:19
guess I'll just hold, no liquidity to dump anyways
2026-01-13 00:23:45
still confused why it wouldn't go over with December tho
2026-01-13 09:55:12
why would they do that tho
2026-01-13 09:55:59
yeah would mean 1550+
2026-01-13 10:58:30
I think everyone is smoking crack, so I bought more
2026-01-13 11:00:41
why in the world would the number go down, anyways? This might just be a mass psychosis event tbh
2026-01-13 13:05:54
lol but rules are same for the monthly markets, this always goes by preliminary data... guess folks were just hallucinating
2026-01-13 13:06:59
I checked, and they did lol, people are just confused
2026-01-13 13:12:44
RIP to everyone who didn't read the rules and got confused 💀 market resolves off preliminary numbers
2026-01-13 13:13:35
Market resolves based on preliminary reports
2026-01-13 18:29:35
That wasn't a change, they always do this
2026-01-13 18:54:23
still preliminary, everyone hallucinated some weird logic that isn't true 💀
2026-01-21 05:57:11
shit kms, fs
2026-01-21 09:45:45
lol
2026-01-21 22:50:31
😒
2026-01-22 06:33:31
oh Hell No
2026-01-27 21:55:17
What exactly is the path out of a shutdown?
2026-01-27 22:34:44
you think 55% chance of shutdown? lol
2026-01-28 00:09:56
seems order is returning to the market
2026-01-28 08:07:10
Guys it's already Wednesday morning. Running out of time. 24 hours from now, this will be joe-ver...
2026-01-29 01:39:38
White House officials hope Homan can mollify Democrats’ concerns over the administration’s aggressive enforcement actions enough to keep the government funded ahead of Friday’s deadline. But it’s a high-wire act. A White House official said Homan’s efforts to “appease” Democrats are the only arrow left in the quiver. There is no plan B, the official said.
2026-01-29 01:39:49
NO PLAN B
2026-01-29 02:08:29
Aren't we the same side?
2026-01-29 02:09:46
They tell me he's one of the best, maybe the best, Obama loved him, Trump loves him.
2026-01-29 02:16:27
nice
2026-01-29 02:18:35
You do realize my average is also high 70s, right? And I dumped a ton at 72c. And no, I've pretty much only traded this from a single Polymarket account lol.
2026-01-29 02:20:47
I only have traded this market on one account here. Rest of my exposure is elsewhere. And you do realize my avg is high 70s, right? or well, worse since I dumped a bunch at a loss at 72
2026-01-29 03:22:36
DHS is now investigating Alex Pretti. Doesn't sound like de-escalation and deal incoming to me
2026-01-29 04:50:40
will the House return before or after the shutdown?
2026-01-29 04:58:18
No thanks
2026-01-29 04:58:35
Yes
2026-01-29 10:38:56
"The only hope is that Trump gets deeply involved in the negotiations and brings skeptical House Republicans along." ggs thanks for playing, you have only one hope left
2026-01-29 15:10:37
where are the N copers now? 😳
2026-01-29 15:14:05
How do you know? The market isn't over 👀
2026-01-29 15:41:02
House Republican leadership seems somewhat unlikely to bring the House back into session this weekend. Attendance would be horrible. Although they haven't made a final decision yet. They are scheduled to come back Monday.
2026-01-29 18:21:47
At this juncture, it seems unlikely that the House will return early from its recess. The chamber is scheduled to come back into session Monday.
2026-01-30 01:58:05
I have like 210K+ Y shares fwiw, seems like House won't vote until Monday and there will be a short shutdown
2026-01-30 02:03:13
gl with all the amendment votes
2026-01-30 03:21:21
I’m told Graham is holding up the vote on the funding deal tonight over the language in the DHS bill that the House added repealing ability of senators to sue over Jan\. 6 phone records
2026-01-30 03:26:18
lol this bill won't even be passed until Friday by Senate
2026-01-30 03:38:04
Sen. GRAHAM says leaving Thune’s office that the Senate won’t be voting on funding deal tonight
2026-01-30 03:53:11
Can't imagine N price sustains itself overnight with no support. Have fun ✅
2026-01-30 10:05:13
panuc
2026-01-30 10:05:33
it's been 6 hours with no news
2026-01-30 10:13:51
There’s a serious time crunch, with funding expiring at midnight for a big chunk of the federal government. Yet even then, the House likely isn’t returning until Monday, with no guarantee the chamber can pass anything.
2026-01-30 10:15:44
laugh
2026-01-31 11:54:15
It's clearly Yes. Thonker's argument won't work as this document is stronger than the last one (which was clarified Y) since it explicitly indicates blackmail rather than just implied.
2026-01-31 13:42:11
ggs, see everyone in the next market
2026-02-02 08:38:12
ggs
2026-02-02 22:06:01
yummy yummy
2026-02-02 23:46:22
I'm too good!
2026-02-03 01:18:41
sounds like ai slop
2026-02-03 06:36:14
hmm what's going on?
2026-02-03 07:37:14
muh low odds 💀
2026-02-03 07:37:39
who?
2026-02-03 07:38:00
I've never been able to do those
2026-02-03 07:40:09
why do you have N
2026-02-03 07:40:24
I love you 💘
2026-02-03 07:40:35
This will resolve to YES 🙌
2026-02-03 07:41:13
why do you think?
2026-02-03 07:42:16
darn, why didn't they tell me that part??
2026-02-03 07:48:24
DOJ is on N. I am selling. I am so scared. Ahhh 😰
2026-02-03 10:02:56
Shoot if the price keeps falling, how will the market hit my 98c sells??
2026-02-03 10:08:26
any time! can't wait to redeem my winning shares n00b
2026-02-03 10:10:02
👌🏾
2026-02-03 10:10:26
im short on cash
2026-02-03 10:15:18
Thanks. I'd wish you good luck, but you lost 🍀
2026-02-03 10:28:08
RIP to the poor guy who market bought N to 40c minutes before the proposal 😂
2026-02-03 10:28:45
gotcha, just shooting the shit here. good luck to you in your Polymarket carreer and don't be a stranger on Discord
2026-02-03 10:35:42
😍 because a new file was posted, gotcha! 😄
2026-02-03 10:37:45
You must have been dropped on the head as a child. I've never voted with UMA. Nor would I be caught dead holding it. It's down like what... 70%+ in last year? Like bruh, if I had $10M in that shit I'd be down $7M 😆
2026-02-03 10:38:08
no, id like ti strange the proposer cause I wanted more fills
2026-02-03 10:38:36
yes, you got at 94 and he did that, and then you proposed and ended the party
2026-02-03 10:39:00
soon will be 0c, class dismissed
2026-02-03 10:54:16
no ty, maybe after resolve
2026-02-03 10:54:24
because it's a Y
2026-02-03 11:05:09
hint: naw it's not that
2026-02-03 11:06:15
legend says q is preparing a new video that'll drop after the market resolves
2026-02-03 12:19:38
ggs, see everyone in the next market!
2026-02-03 12:20:51
It was Thonker you idiot. I didn't want it proposed just yet, because I wanted more shares. I want to STRANGLE the proposer.
2026-02-03 20:47:43
yes
2026-02-03 20:48:07
Yes, there was a new file released
2026-02-03 21:46:24
Are you retarded? Thonker proposed. Why would I want to propose when I could have gotten 10s of K more fills?
2026-02-03 21:46:34
There was a new file
2026-02-04 14:01:16
/s
2026-02-08 06:18:49
wagmi
2026-02-12 09:44:02
can't wait for the clarification to finally end this market once and for all
2026-02-12 09:56:26
schizo market
2026-02-12 09:56:40
true
2026-02-12 11:07:44
pump is dying
2026-02-12 12:47:08
derisk at 10c seems fine
2026-02-13 02:00:56
👑
2026-02-13 07:54:27
@Llalalala DM me if you want to broker a deal
2026-02-13 08:47:11
of course
2026-02-13 08:48:19
because Y is still reasonably likely, obvs. If I sold and "switched" that could just be multiplying losses
2026-02-13 08:48:51
My DM's are still open
2026-02-13 08:58:24
I did, at 18c
2026-02-13 09:17:59
That was updating it to show no shutdown, not the reverse lol
2026-02-13 09:21:21
Still haven't sold a single share, here. People tend to panic and over-index on market-moving updates. Don't see why "no update" can't just mean Scotty is referring to a green-orange banner change. He might mean that a one department shutdown won't cause any change to the actual sign, even if the status details are updated.
2026-02-13 10:46:43
There's a lot of uncertainty, that's the point.
2026-02-13 11:06:54
the last two times I had people pray, the bets worked out
2026-02-13 12:15:00
I'm on crack copium, take it to 0 tbh 😅
2026-02-13 12:50:31
please end it, I've had enough
2026-02-13 13:23:36
you can msg on discord or twitter, same username aenews
2026-02-19 04:39:22
He WILL RETURN
2026-02-19 05:16:50
oh rlly?
2026-02-19 05:19:30
I made $1300 just off rewards yesterday. Could be a big payday if Jesus returns this year 🙏 Just need a consensus of credible sources!
2026-02-19 09:03:49
I'm down only $3600 net, better luck next maths class
2026-02-19 09:04:23
I got it, fake news praktor
2026-02-20 10:16:40
Of course, yeah. Besides any tail risk, the risk free rate on Polymarket itself is 2-5% / month. Makes little sense to hold 10-11 months for just 3%.
2026-02-20 17:51:33
I'm in the GREEN, the deniers are in SHAMBLES 😆
2026-02-21 04:42:09
Jesus is a different market
2026-02-21 15:18:26
Naw it isn't true. In my Top 10 biggest wins, there are only 2 or 3 disputed markets, and a comparable number in Top 10 biggest losses.
2026-02-21 19:52:42
Bought some N 😋
2026-02-23 15:37:37
Resting risk free return rate is about 5%/month on Polymarket. Holding 10 months for 4% is just stupid.
2026-02-24 08:46:45
I'm up like 4-5K lol
2026-02-25 10:07:53
alright, when we disputing?
2026-02-25 10:16:12
Disputed!
2026-02-25 10:50:59
Has anyone found reporting that Shirley actually attended SOTU? If we could resolve off reports he would be there, then it was resolvable before the event even started (obvs incorrect).
2026-02-25 11:10:21
I sold too low, and it may just resolve N
2026-02-25 12:38:15
Enjoy the bags, Thonker! Shirley was there after all 😳
2026-02-26 06:21:01
Is this market a good candidate to Martingale recent losses?
2026-02-26 06:26:04
why does this comment seem familiar hm
2026-02-26 06:26:18
who are you
2026-02-26 06:30:26
I'm just clicking buttons, woke up and saw people buying
2026-02-26 06:30:55
buy more little guy, you need to size up to join the big leagues
2026-02-26 06:50:03
Pack it up 👜
2026-02-26 07:01:58
Info changed
2026-02-26 07:30:30
Let it RIP 🍑 💨
2026-02-26 07:52:43
I have no idea, just clicking buttons tbh
2026-02-26 07:54:31
What is everyone's favorite way to prepare eggs? I like omelettes, and then sunny-side-up / fried eggs 🍳
2026-02-26 09:22:58
I have no idea what I'm doing, what's happening, or what an Axiom even is, so I'm OUT
2026-02-27 11:10:27
pretty funny that the winning bracket here was 1c 😳
2026-02-28 06:26:25
so people got Israel confused with US and bonded to 92c? lol
2026-02-28 09:51:53
this is 50/50
2026-03-01 05:51:06
crazy that a free bet is still at 99.7c
2026-03-02 11:22:23
say it with me folks, reading comprehension!
2026-03-11 10:48:05
can't wait for you to be wrong when they do some minor thing that shifts it
2026-03-11 10:48:25
probs gg tho
2026-03-11 15:00:08
ggs
2026-03-13 01:46:02
people will really come up with anything if they think they can get 1000X
2026-03-14 06:00:42
Well people naturally assume it'll win next round cause IDF confirmation
2026-03-15 00:09:27
How long can they hide it? I'm thinking the theory is fake news, guys.
2026-03-15 00:26:20
why pedo?
2026-03-15 10:18:48
I think in any world where one of those goes blue, Ohio also went blue. Because Ohio is easier.
2026-03-19 04:09:48
how do you know??
2026-03-19 18:11:14
What is the Y argument? That we know the time? If we do, with what probability are we supposed to know the time? 50%? 80%? 90%?
2026-03-19 18:23:49
144P video with no timestamp tells us the time? I'm a little skeptical that will hold in court unless there's more evidence.
2026-03-20 19:29:08
gd
2026-03-21 20:26:45
HOW WAS THIS SUB-90? 😂
2026-03-23 07:20:10
post proof or shut it
2026-03-24 07:34:49
ogre
2026-03-26 01:54:51
ggs
2026-03-26 02:17:20
because billy dumped, that reduced my net position
2026-03-26 02:17:58
car is an idiot
2026-03-27 05:14:43
Almost every single post is for No
2026-03-31 05:51:55
Has Sung Jinwoo used Arise on you yet?
2026-03-31 06:02:26
switch to the 1M 💀
2026-03-31 07:03:38
12M is a glitch due to negrisk, that isn't real
2026-03-31 07:04:27
nom nom nom, please fill me more!
2026-03-31 08:27:42
lol what is Gooble smoking?
2026-03-31 08:33:12
lol
2026-03-31 08:33:43
gg
2026-03-31 08:39:31
None
2026-03-31 08:39:39
hope so
2026-03-31 17:55:43
I've been asleep for 9 hrs, what happen
2026-03-31 19:20:38
what alt
2026-03-31 19:46:08
market has finally moved past Thonker's tyranny
2026-03-31 20:01:00
why is this market ao schizo? it can't decide on 10c, 50c, or 90c
2026-03-31 20:20:09
bro bought 95c shares when he could have gotten 55c imcrine 😅
2026-03-31 20:42:25
then why'd gooble dump to 50c?
2026-03-31 20:58:59
cause seems like ggs
2026-03-31 21:00:14
No matter what side you were on in this market, I hope you had a good time trading! Congrats to all winners, and condolences to all losers. See you in the next one ✅
2026-04-01 00:43:52
Easy dubs
2026-04-01 04:50:28
Is it really worth holding this for 4 days for 0.1% and also weathering the tail risk of e.g. secret passing or exit from office? Exceedingly unlikely, obviously, but know what you're getting into, at least.
2026-04-01 11:04:44
Agreed
2026-04-01 23:03:23
You guys do realize there could (theoretically) be another mention besides the clarified one, right? Doubt it, but it's certainly more than 0.1% likely.
2026-04-01 23:04:23
And there are 3 days to find any such mention. Seems crazy to hold and pray that long to me.
2026-04-02 00:25:53
Yeah I sincerely doubt it. But the low price and high liquidity will encourage and subsidize searching for any wayward mention, and there's over 2 days for that to pan out.
2026-04-02 00:26:57
I don't think I'll ever buy net N on this, unless the shares are pretty cheap. But I'm happy to sell Y shares higher because FV is clearly higher than 0.1c.
2026-04-02 00:28:32
It's pretty obvious from the 200K 99.9c bonding, that the bonder didn't consider that this market is for mentions over an entire month span and there are several days to discover anything else that could exist. I've been very clear that it is very unlikely. But it is not a 0.1% event.
2026-04-02 11:26:53
Case in point, the Trump talk to Salman in March market just flipped from 0.1c to 98c in the past day. All because the evidence was found by RL staff who then disputed 18 hours after it was over.
2026-04-06 02:45:22
None
2026-04-06 02:46:05
189.8M would be pretty funny
2026-04-06 12:36:23
probably because it's 190+
2026-04-06 12:36:48
hi
2026-04-07 13:40:21
[link removed] nothingburger
2026-04-10 18:30:15
I still think Dems have it in the bag, but we'll see
2026-04-12 02:34:52
I hear donk, personally
2026-04-13 20:54:17
ggs
2026-04-15 13:32:38
[link removed]
2026-04-21 20:41:57
dump your bags while you can folks, some of the NOVA counties are at 90%+ of 2025 for 12-4PM
2026-04-21 20:42:30
dems vote late, and they are voting even later today than usual
2026-04-23 10:47:21
As per the rules, intimate get-togethers do not qualify as parties.
2026-04-23 10:48:19
I feel confident bos man clarifies N in the morning, shall see
2026-04-27 17:16:21
didn't seem worth holding at 80 ig
2026-04-30 18:14:38
If only there was a statement from the platform on how to resolve in that scenario!
2026-04-30 18:15:29
The WH specifically pushed for this to be passed immediately. So I expect he signs today. FV 95%
2026-05-02 00:26:03
President Trump says the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "almost immediately."
But he says, "we'll finish one first, I like to finish a job," meaning Iran.
2026-05-02 01:11:38
I have a proprietary custom set-up
2026-05-02 01:30:29
interesting, guess I'm the fastest shot in the pm world but still a slowpoke
2026-05-02 05:54:04
ggs
2026-05-02 05:59:41
what is the alternative
2026-05-02 13:47:05
It's about as risky as getting out of bed in the morning
2026-05-02 23:18:05
If you work hard, this can be taken to 50/50. You miiiiight lose all your money for no reason, but you sure can do it.
2026-05-02 23:43:53
why would I pass up 100% APY? It's a no brainer unless you can't math
2026-05-05 00:49:31
Federal prosecutors on Monday sided with The New York Times, which petitioned a judge in White Plains, New York, to unseal a purported suicide note by Jeffrey Epstein. - ABC News
2026-05-06 06:24:46
🐳🐳🐳
2026-05-08 00:52:10
Breaking News: Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push to freeze rents for nearly one million New York City apartments cleared a major hurdle. - New York Times
2026-05-08 20:10:50
Clarification was pretty verbatim as expected
2026-05-09 13:24:33
oh it's grossly mispriced, alright ✌
2026-05-09 13:33:12
you'll need a magic eight ball when I'm done with you
2026-05-09 21:16:20
only need one I spose
2026-05-10 19:58:03
Not that I think it's met now, but clarification is only for that moment in time. We have until the end of the month for more reporting.
2026-05-10 23:20:27
It's not identical, this one has until the end of May.
2026-05-10 23:21:55
lol no, though I do agree it will be a tough bar to meet
2026-05-11 08:24:41
been a while since I've seen a competitive coinflip box office that remains 50/50 overnight
2026-05-12 09:48:19
KREMLIN: THE UKRAINE CONFLICT CAN STOP AT ANY MOMENT AS SOON AS KYIV AND ZELENSKIY TAKE THE DECISION
2026-05-12 09:50:02
KREMLIN ON PUTIN REMARKS THAT THE UKRAINE WAR IS ‘COMING TO AN END’: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PEACE PROCESS MEAN THE COMPLETION IS NEARING
2026-05-12 10:44:48
Breaking news: EBay rejected a $55 billion takeover proposal from GameStop, describing the offer as “neither credible nor attractive."
2026-05-12 10:51:24
yeah not sure why price was still high after that news lol
2026-05-12 12:16:05
No Republican has ever spoken to me about Cuba, which is a failed country and only heading in one direction - down! Cuba is asking for help, and we are going to talk!!! In the meantime, I’m off to China! President DJT
2026-05-14 01:36:34
ggs? I don't wanna sell, hodl to 0
2026-05-16 12:09:10
💀
2026-05-16 12:29:14
*CHINA, US AGREE TO REDUCE LEVIES ON A CERTAIN RANGE OF PRODUCTS
2026-05-16 12:33:42
There was a new UFO file released on the government website after market creation. During the initial release, they (by mistake, I assume) had one dupe. So this was later fixed and one file added later. This was also cross-checked and verified definitively by checking the archived webpages including a spreadsheet where they cataloged the UFO files released.
2026-05-18 23:43:08
Will the US Invade DRC Before 2027?
2026-05-19 10:34:55
RUSSIA'S RYABKOV: RISKS OF DIRECT RUSSIA - NATO CLASH ARE INCREASING - TASS
2026-05-21 06:36:10
If they hold territory, it would. Maduro did not.
2026-05-22 09:54:54
oh no
2026-05-22 20:58:03
I hope so
2026-05-22 20:58:24
In Jatinder we trust 🙏
2026-05-24 02:02:17
🙏 God Bless President Trump 🙌
2026-05-24 03:55:16
I'm scared 😰 can someone hold my hand ✋
2026-05-31 17:18:08
rip
2026-06-01 01:02:27
I want to make 1 million dolleros
2026-06-01 07:17:35
ggs enjoy my 200K N holders... congrats
2026-06-01 15:48:02
It was only open because it was disputed. Markets remain tradeable if they aren't resolved.
2026-06-03 00:04:37
The vote is 100% P1. It won't be much different in some hours or tomorrow. Don't understand why people are incinerating their money when the decision was already made a day ago.
2026-06-03 00:07:54
ggs
2026-06-03 00:08:32
Polymarket is the one that decided and clarified NO...
2026-06-03 00:12:24
No facts were changed. I agree Polymarket has done poorly at communicating how deadlines work, but this is not new. Many markets also went the same way this year. The only reason market was even open is because someone from the Y side paid money to force it. Otherwise it would have resolved and none of you guys would have lost money after the filing.
2026-06-03 00:31:16
2.22 Million to 0, literally no one will vote for the impossible option
2026-06-03 00:37:11
Please stop. Just sell before your shares go to 0.
2026-06-03 02:18:06
Polymarket is the one that clarified NO... just dump man, your shares will redeem at 0 in 22 hours, otherwise.
2026-06-03 02:19:39
you literally bought 0.2c shares, just dump now and you'll have made 2X
2026-06-03 04:59:11
You literally bought shares for less than 1c, stop larping
2026-06-03 04:59:42
yeah it's a publicity stunt for free advertising
2026-06-03 19:23:34
The data is not on-chain and was after the market timeframe
2026-06-03 20:58:11
🚨 There were one Democrat and six Republicans absent on the first vote of this series.
It seems very likely the war powers vote is going to pass.
2026-06-04 11:49:15
It did indeed pass in the House after I posted. Price now up 2X+. Now just depends on the Senate...
2026-06-07 06:57:09
Cuba has begun distributing weapons to civilians and urging citizens to prepare for a possible foreign invasion - CNN
2026-06-07 20:23:14
🚨Trump added: "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now"
🚨🚨Trump stressed: "I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one"
2026-06-11 17:35:00
Kinda insane that Trump announced a deal that will apparently be signed and we're still at 11c 😆
2026-06-11 17:37:45
How? I'm not even selling, ain't worth it yet
2026-06-15 18:21:01
Gavin Newscum says DOJ is investigating him
2026-06-21 16:02:45
thanks babe
2026-06-28 15:49:34
schizo 😂😭
2026-06-30 20:03:11
done
2026-07-15 05:15:38
ty for free money
2026-07-24 11:46:00
Is hydro a standalone word or a prefix?
2026-07-30 21:16:53
**P2 Yes**
If I called my Mom and told her she's a "difficult character", she'd invent a time machine to ground my ass.
"no fucking judgement", "litigious", signing exective orders worse, etc. all counted. This is a similar level to litigious.
2026-07-30 21:21:22
If I called my Dad and told him he's a "difficult character", he'd invent a time machine to whip my ass
2026-08-03 11:24:03
aeprojection: 360.2M
2026-08-15 11:22:02
sure it'll reach 1B by end of run
2026-08-18 20:08:30
I am baked potato
2026-08-24 18:44:20
Ok Mom