Account Information

Name: Spirit-LT
Address: 0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47
Address: 0xfeae28bcf1382a34be1ab78eaf9164408c16806a ↗
Bio: www.HolyPoly.ca
Pseudonym: Upbeat-Advance
Created: 2024-11-15 21:27:22
Last Activity: 2 weeks ago
Tier: Tier 0
X: @HolyPoly_ca
Profile profile-image-1408904-bc7465f8-f3a4-4c54-9228-9f876db82fbc.webp
Total Profit $7,185

Stats

Portfolio value $666.45
Markets traded 1,429
Trades 1,429
Largest win $5,787.05
Profile views 48,346
Join date 2024-11-15 21:27:22
All-time rank 19286
All-time PnL $7,184.56
All-time volume $2,913,946.93
All-time profit $7,199.67
Lifetime volume $2,911,512.49
PnL series latest $7,199.67
PnL series start $7,198.75
PnL series points 24
Weighted volume $1,372.98
Geoblock allow No
Geoblock block No
Geoblock close-only No

Biggest wins & losses

Biggest wins

Market Outcome Size PnL
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Yes 8559.92 $5,787.05
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Yes 6935.34 $2,310.40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 10753.0122 $1,515.52

Biggest losses

Market Outcome Size PnL
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? No 8720.4789 $-1,608.60
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 11870.8792 $-493.94
Will Trump's remarks not air? Yes 900 $-490.20

Open positions (5+)

Market Outcome Size Avg Now Value PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 1012.49 $0.17 $0.17 $167.06 $-1.94
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 7189.95 $0.00 $0.02 $111.44 $97.06
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? Yes 3639.5485 $0.02 $0.02 $58.23 $3.10
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No 509.0909 $0.10 $0.10 $53.45 $0.46
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? Yes 644.8884 $0.14 $0.07 $48.37 $-43.86

Closed positions (5+)

Market Outcome Size PnL
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Yes 8559.92 $5,787.05
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Yes 6935.34 $2,310.40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 10753.0122 $1,515.52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 1999.238 $1,498.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2907.1428 $1,303.24

Recent activity (5+)

When Type Side Market Outcome Price Size USDC
2 weeks ago TRADE BUY NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No $0.11 409.090908 $45.00
2 weeks ago TRADE BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 500 $13.50
2 weeks ago TRADE BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 100 $2.70
2 weeks ago TRADE BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 200 $5.40
2 weeks ago TRADE BUY NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No $0.08 100 $8.00

Recent trades (1429)

When Side Market Outcome Price Size
2 weeks ago BUY NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No $0.11 409.090908
2 weeks ago BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 500
2 weeks ago BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 100
2 weeks ago BUY NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.03 200
2 weeks ago BUY NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? No $0.08 100

Comments

2026-02-27 23:55:58 Booom
2026-03-02 02:07:10 According to the Constitution of Iran (specifically Article 111), when the Supreme Leader dies (or becomes incapacitated or resigns), his role does not end automatically — there is a clear mechanism for the transfer of power. The Assembly of Experts must select a new leader as soon as possible. Until then, a temporary council is formed to perform the leadership’s duties until a successor is elected — and as of 1 March 2026, no such selection has yet taken place amid the ongoing crisis and the 40-day mourning period. Since the role of the Supreme Leader does not “end automatically” (as there is a transitional mechanism), and the duties continue to be carried out by the council, Khamenei does not “lose his position” or become “prevented from fulfilling his duties” in the sense of a complete vacancy until a new leader is officially chosen. Therefore, he was not “removed from power” in the sense of the elimination of his office; rather, the position remains formally in existence and vacant until a successor is selected.
2026-03-02 02:45:46 lol
2026-03-02 07:07:39 You’re openly claiming that NO holders are fools while at the same time selling your YES position. I wouldn’t be surprised if you have another account hedged on NO.
2026-03-02 07:32:31 You’re just a coward.
2026-03-02 07:33:09 You’re afraid of losing.
2026-03-02 17:30:40 100%
2026-03-02 21:57:52 100%
2026-03-02 22:21:41 ))) it’s true
2026-03-03 00:32:17 They added a dispute on March 31.
2026-03-03 13:12:46 YES - The argument for no is no enough credible resources and i am seeing a lot of evidece. Evidence: U.S. Attribution: NYT (Feb 28): "In Iraq, four U.S. strikes hit an area near Baghdad linked to Kata'ib Hezbollah." [link removed] | Archive: [link removed] AP (Feb 28): Reported U.S. drone strike on KH headquarters southwest of Baghdad, killing two. via [link removed] CTP-ISW (Feb 28 + Mar 1): Confirmed [link removed] combined force struck KH on Feb 28, two killed. [link removed] [link removed] Former Deputy Asst. Sec. of State for Iraq/Iran, Atlantic Council, referenced "US strikes" as fact on Feb 28. [link removed] Timing — Feb 28, before 11:59 PM ET: Wave 1: 11:50 AM Iraq / 03:50 AM ET — Iraqi Joint Operations Command confirmed airstrikes, two killed, three wounded. Wave 2: 7:25 PM Iraq / 11:25 AM ET — Iraqi Security Media Cell confirmed two more strikes. [link removed] Additional: [link removed]
2026-03-03 13:13:12 Rationale: NYT and AP independently name the U.S. CTP-ISW confirms U.S. as part of combined force. Former senior State Dept. official references U.S. strikes as fact on Feb 28. Iraqi government timestamps place both waves 12+ hours before deadline. Ground impact with casualties confirmed — not intercepted. Strike type (drone/air strike) confirmed by AP, NYT, Iraqi JOC. Location in Iraq confirmed by Iraqi government. Consensus: NYT, AP, Reuters, AFP, CTP-ISW, Iraqi JOC, Iraqi Security Media Cell."
2026-03-03 14:37:27 Every pullback in YES is a buying opportunity.
2026-03-04 01:11:30 Wtf
2026-03-05 14:08:30 No
2026-03-05 14:58:45 Because his pnl is negative.
2026-03-05 18:54:58 Conclusion — NO. UMA — a disgrace. I read the arguments from UMA holders in Discord. What a shame. They call white black. They themselves post the video and say “listen at 0.75 speed, he says ‘Waste it’,” while it clearly says “wasting it.” People who have absolutely no ear for this were given the power to vote.
2026-03-05 19:12:41 ZachXBT is already looking into UMA holders over insider trading. This is one of the seven accounts he is investigating. https://polymarket.com/@poorsob Look at all the disputes in UMA and on Polymarket, and all of its positions. A coincidence? ZachXBT will soon publish some interesting things about the voting and insider trading. You’re not only setting yourselves up, but you could also damage the reputation of two major companies. Think about that
 although it’s already too late — the process has already [link removed]://[link removed]
2026-03-06 02:49:55 3+1=3
2026-03-06 02:50:18 The logic of UMA.
2026-03-06 08:49:44 Scam vote. 3+1=3
2026-03-06 09:56:34 3+1=3 LOL
2026-03-07 06:46:08 UMA voters are only looking for what they want to find. They need to read more carefully. “Explosions were heard during the barrage, with at least five missiles intercepted over Tel Aviv, while others reportedly fell in open areas. No injuries were immediately reported.” And they don’t know what a military secret is? “Strict military censorship remains in place, preventing the publication of photos or videos that could reveal impact locations or the extent of the damage.”
2026-03-07 06:51:20 UMA voters are only looking for what they want to find. They need to read more carefully. “Explosions were heard during the barrage, with at least five missiles intercepted over Tel Aviv, while others reportedly fell in open areas. No injuries were immediately reported.” And they don’t know what a military secret is? “Strict military censorship remains in place, preventing the publication of photos or videos that could reveal impact locations or the extent of the damage.” They also can’t make a decision based on six different sources. Is that not enough for consensus?
2026-03-07 07:01:55 Because at least six different sources confirm that on March 6 there were missile strikes on Israel and rockets landed on its territory.
2026-03-07 16:06:16 22-25 not you)
2026-03-08 07:45:13 This was an FPV attack. That is NO according to the market rules.
2026-03-08 13:02:42 [link removed]
2026-03-08 13:02:42 [link removed]
2026-03-08 13:03:33 [link removed]
2026-03-08 13:04:36 8 march - NO Reports mention only falling debris and people injured by shrapnel. So, as of now, all missiles were intercepted. The injured were reportedly not in shelters for some reason.
2026-03-08 13:05:17 8 march - NO! [link removed]
2026-03-08 15:11:23 8 March: [link removed] Reports mention only falling debris and people injured by shrapnel. So, as of now, all missiles were intercepted. The injured were reportedly not in shelters for some reason.
2026-03-08 15:12:07 One more: [link removed]
2026-03-09 10:36:36 All sources (The Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, and MDA) describe only shrapnel/fragments/debris from an Iranian missile. The woman in Rishon LeZion was injured by flying stones, not by a direct missile impact. MDA recorded a crater with shattered stones on the road — a classic sign of interception. 2 The definition of a qualifying strike requires the missile to impact Israeli ground territory (i.e., to fly all the way and hit on its own).‹An intercepted missile, even if its debris falls to the ground and injures someone, does not count.
2026-03-09 10:37:59 All sources (The Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, and MDA) describe only shrapnel/fragments/debris from an Iranian missile. The woman in Rishon LeZion was injured by flying stones, not by a direct missile impact. MDA recorded a crater with shattered stones on the road — a classic sign of interception.
2026-03-09 10:42:57 9 March - NO
2026-03-09 11:27:29 Lol. What is this?
2026-03-09 17:17:12 Thank you for providing such a large amount of reliable information that fully complies with the rules and proves YES for March 6.
2026-03-09 22:40:33 Green - YES
2026-03-10 10:29:04 Was there an impact? No.
2026-03-13 20:36:20 Someone needs to open a dispute for “P4 – too early.” Whether he was actually in power yesterday may only become clear in a few days. Trump hinted today that he might not be alive, and Mossad posted about it yesterday.
2026-03-17 15:55:30 Trump on Iran: I guess the actual top person was killed yesterday.
2026-03-19 17:49:07 Discount for NO
2026-03-19 17:51:55 The market has rules.
2026-03-19 19:55:21 You have no chance)
2026-03-19 20:15:53 The guilty one is making excuses.
2026-03-19 20:17:10 Thnx for your money, bro
2026-03-19 22:01:34 Bro, where did most of your position go? Did you give up?
2026-03-20 20:15:04 Link?
2026-03-20 20:18:25 Lol. Have you link?
2026-03-20 20:19:33 Did you come up with this information yourself, or did someone suggest it to you?
2026-03-20 20:49:47 Ahaha, ok. Did Trump whisper in your ear?
2026-03-20 21:09:08 100%
2026-03-20 21:12:03 Not confirmed
2026-03-20 23:11:58 Not confirmed!
2026-03-21 08:43:49 Watch the Backpack announcement — easy YES on the 23rd.
2026-03-21 09:30:35 ET
2026-03-21 13:29:30 Knowing the project, expect the date to be postponed — just like it was with Lighter.
2026-03-21 13:44:10 Backpack said “2 days” and everyone believed it. Lol Same thing happened with Lighter. Thanks to YES holders for the free money.
2026-03-21 16:25:40 You must be new to Backpack and have no idea how many times they’ve postponed the TGE.
2026-03-21 17:56:59 Wrote, bought, won. Ok)) Judging by your account’s profitability, that’s exactly what you want. That’s not how it works.
2026-03-21 19:08:54 Lol
2026-03-21 22:03:04 @nssmaxi bro, Why are you selling YES-tokens?))Just a few hours ago you were so confident about the 23rd.
2026-03-22 10:06:51 It’s already 20с ))
2026-03-22 10:07:07 It’s already 20с )
2026-03-22 18:58:59 Bro, how are you?
2026-03-22 19:30:09 I’ve sold what I originally invested. From here on, I’m not risking anything — unlike you. Noob.
2026-03-22 19:32:52 You’re already the idiot, because you only see what you’re being shown in X. NO holders have already secured their principal, while you’re sitting in the red.
2026-03-22 19:42:23 All of X is full of posts about “free money” if you buy YES. Lol
2026-03-22 19:42:51 You could lose your $2K. I won’t lose mine anymore. With your $К, your account is in the red, while I turned $200 into profit. Any questions?
2026-03-22 19:54:31 Lol.
2026-03-22 20:55:56 Woohoooo
2026-03-22 20:58:27 You can buy YES at a discount. Ahahah
2026-03-22 21:14:25 100% but for NO )))
2026-03-22 22:28:19 Lol. You’re buying YES for the wrong date. It will be on the 27th.
2026-03-23 01:06:59 Backpack: “Big day. New pfp” )))
2026-03-23 07:27:13 Why isn’t the price at 100± yet? Lol
2026-03-23 07:30:30 Read the market rules. That’s not enough.
2026-03-23 07:46:45 The key word is “will.” But that’s not a fact. Also, check the rules on what qualifies as a valid source. If Backpack doesn’t state it, this will be NO.
2026-03-23 09:20:39 What sources are those? Have you ever dealt with the resolution of similar disputes on Polymarket?
2026-03-23 10:04:27 Lmao
2026-03-23 10:22:18 )))
2026-03-23 10:31:48 Have you already made a plan for what you’ll do at 12:05 if nothing happens?)
2026-03-23 12:18:38 How are things with TGE at 12:00? )
2026-03-23 13:31:07 I broke even and didn’t lose anything. And I hedged the position on another account.
2026-03-23 13:33:08 At one point I could’ve taken 6x, but that’s not what I’m here for. And I see you made a whole $200 off $11K )))
2026-03-23 13:38:55 Congrats. You made $70. Lol
2026-03-23 14:30:43 Pfff, what farming? There’s my account and my wife’s account.
2026-03-23 14:32:46 Bro, my $200 position was over $1K at one point — more than your entire deposit. But I’m not here for that. I’ll leave the breadcrumbs to you.
2026-03-23 21:45:48 WTF. How???
2026-03-24 05:21:26 There is no consensus among reliable sources as of March 24. no confirmation from the IDF. For now, this is a NO.
2026-03-24 11:56:10 Explosions in Kyiv following a drone attack. Happening now.
2026-03-24 12:43:15 I live in Kyiv. I know what I’m talking about.
2026-03-24 14:48:25 Interception in Lebanon
2026-03-24 15:50:28 20 - YES
2026-03-24 16:45:04 Link
2026-03-24 16:56:01 If you have such evidence, open a dispute on YES and lose your money.
2026-03-24 17:18:03 ОĐș. You win
2026-03-24 19:09:03 Car - Tiger
2026-03-24 19:58:50 Too early
2026-03-24 20:43:52 Dispute
2026-03-25 06:51:46 25 should be NO.
2026-03-25 07:25:32 20 - clearly YES.
2026-03-25 09:04:43 24- YES
2026-03-25 09:24:12 25 — no confirmation from official sources of a strike.
2026-03-25 09:29:53 One account on X reported a strike. There is no other information. There are no confirmations from credible sources of an interception or impact in an open area.
2026-03-25 12:10:07 This source is not reliable.
2026-03-25 12:11:35 It’s March 19
2026-03-25 12:12:57 When you include a link, specify the date. Don’t mislead people.
2026-03-25 12:53:07 Why is March 25 so high? Nothing has happened that could resolve to YES.
2026-03-25 14:00:13 It was interceptions.
2026-03-25 14:02:12 )) it’s NO
2026-03-25 14:17:00 25 march. Without a dispute, it’s a NO, and on the YES side of the dispute there are no meaningful arguments.
2026-03-25 14:20:21 Waiting for @poorsob to jump into NO so he can kick Car’s ass.
2026-03-25 15:29:32 This is the 19 Before posting the link, indicate the date. Don’t mislead people.
2026-03-25 16:06:53 Only interceptions today.
2026-03-25 16:58:27 Video title: Iran war live: Tehran confirms receiving US plan but calls it “maximalist”.
2026-03-25 16:58:35 Link
2026-03-25 17:04:54 25 march. There is no confirmation from the IDF. The official website only mentions missile launches and the operation of air defense systems.
2026-03-25 17:28:10 There is no confirmation from the IDF. Check their official website.
2026-03-25 17:28:25 Link!
2026-03-25 18:20:05 25-Clearly NO. Thnx yes holders for free money.
2026-03-25 18:27:57 Bro, check the top YES holder account (Car) — he just sold half of his position.
2026-03-25 18:30:56 Just sit there and keep believing one source. Lol
2026-03-25 19:02:51 He wants the truth to prevail. All the sources he provided point to YES.
2026-03-25 19:13:35 Ahahah. Good luck
2026-03-25 20:56:00 Open your eyes. He’s buying.
2026-03-25 20:59:40 Trump said the meeting with Xi Jinping would be in May. And everyone believed it. Everyone believed Trump. Lol
2026-03-25 21:23:46 According to monitoring channels, a large-scale attack on Kyiv is expected within the next 48 hours.
2026-03-25 21:36:12 Hi. Write me on ds: spirit_lt or Tg: spirit_lt — I have a proposal.
2026-03-25 22:27:14 23, 25 - NO
2026-03-25 23:59:31 25 - clearly NO. Thank you for your attention to this matter )
2026-03-26 00:11:13 Need to agree on Iran.
2026-03-26 00:19:43 What arguments do you have?
2026-03-26 06:40:13 No confirmation from the IDF.
2026-03-26 06:40:22 No confirmation from the IDF
2026-03-26 06:41:03 We have NO confirmation from the IDF.
2026-03-26 07:14:33 Link
2026-03-26 07:31:06 Car completely sold his YES position.
2026-03-26 08:10:00 Another day, another scam?
2026-03-26 09:59:38 22 - YES?
2026-03-26 10:05:01 Copy from AI?
2026-03-26 12:07:08 mischievousGod
2026-03-26 13:01:06 Confirm of strike
2026-03-26 14:18:45 Let them buy NO. We need liquidity And a low price to buy.
2026-03-26 14:53:57 Time for YES ;)
2026-03-27 18:47:29 Six sevenTH
2026-03-28 07:58:19 Take your time with the conclusion.
2026-03-28 08:26:04 Car is back to NO (22)
2026-03-28 09:18:05 Oman - YES
2026-03-28 09:22:14 A separate drone strike targeted an industrial zone in Sohar. [link removed]
2026-03-28 09:23:45 [link removed]
2026-03-28 10:03:16 Just wait
2026-03-28 12:52:18 Lol
2026-03-28 18:28:47 Oman clearly NO
2026-03-28 18:34:50 [link removed]
2026-03-28 18:42:16 [link removed]
2026-03-28 18:49:03 Buy more NO. Lol
2026-03-28 19:05:47 Missile launch toward Kyiv.
2026-03-28 19:34:01 Bang?
2026-03-28 22:38:48 25 March - NO. Key point: According to the market rules, if the date/time of a strike is not confirmed by a consensus of credible sources by the end of the third calendar day after the market’s end date, the market must resolve to “No”, regardless of any later confirmations. Additionally: No substantiated dispute with sufficient evidence supporting “Yes” was submitted within this three-day window. This strongly indicates that, at the time, there was no consensus of credible reporting required to confirm the event under the market rules. Therefore, even if any reports or interpretations emerged after this period, they cannot be considered for resolution. The conditions for a “Yes” outcome were not met within the required timeframe → the market must resolve to “No”.
2026-03-29 08:46:59 The first time it seemed impossible, but now we understand that anything impossible is possible.
2026-03-29 10:09:31 It’s been more than 3 days since the market closed. This is a clear NO according to the market rules.
2026-03-29 21:01:47 Al Jazeera: Powerful explosion heard in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
2026-03-29 21:54:33 Soon

2026-03-30 02:26:49 25,4
2026-03-30 02:36:49 Lol
2026-03-30 02:37:42 Do you want to buy more at a lower price?
2026-03-30 10:40:07 And?
2026-03-30 10:44:46 25 March - NO. Key point: According to the market rules, if the date/time of a strike is not confirmed by a consensus of credible sources by the end of the third calendar day after the market’s end date, the market must resolve to “No”, regardless of any later confirmations. Additionally: No substantiated dispute with sufficient evidence supporting “Yes” was submitted within this three-day window. This strongly indicates that, at the time, there was no consensus of credible reporting required to confirm the event under the market rules. Therefore, even if any reports or interpretations emerged after this period, they cannot be considered for resolution. The conditions for a “Yes” outcome were not met within the required timeframe → the market must resolve to “No”.
2026-03-30 13:50:53 What did I miss?
2026-03-30 18:44:01 Confirmed
2026-03-30 19:06:30 Read more than one source. Haifa oil refinery hit by debris from intercepted missile.
2026-03-30 19:17:28 Drain
2026-03-30 19:50:51 30 - Hezbollah strikes + Haifa oil refinery was hit by debris from an intercepted missile. Easy NO
2026-03-31 09:09:27 Zsc mind? Lol
2026-03-31 09:28:13 Link
2026-03-31 13:28:53 Great day
2026-03-31 15:29:16 TRUMP DECLINED TO SAY IF VANCE, WITKOFF HEADED TO PAKISTAN: NYP. What do you think this is about?
2026-03-31 22:17:31 pOl of water
2026-03-31 22:33:48 ???
2026-04-01 00:09:21 31 - Clearly NO
2026-04-01 00:13:56 28 - easy NO
2026-04-01 00:15:03 Listen to smart people.
2026-04-01 08:59:42 The meeting already took place. Trump will talk about it tonight. But for this market, it will already be too late.
2026-04-01 09:00:49 I hope you’ll buy a house and a car.
2026-04-01 21:21:29 Two disputes on NO. Unfortunately, this will most likely resolve to NO(
2026-04-01 21:33:26 Maybe
2026-04-02 06:57:13 Don’t be so confident.
2026-04-02 08:39:37 There is no consensus among credible sources, and this could have occurred on April 1 — no timestamp is specified anywhere, and there is no confirmation that the missile was actually from Iran.
2026-04-02 08:40:43 And you?)
2026-04-02 10:24:30 Smart Scotty) merge and buy more NO
2026-04-02 13:52:46 )))
2026-04-02 14:29:17 If there were a reason for it to resolve, it would already be at 99c. As it stands, it’s still NO. Sorry
2026-04-02 14:57:48 Every case is unique. You are not trading charts, you are trading probabilities.
2026-04-02 15:07:17 Ok
2026-04-02 20:48:04 2 april - maybe NO . Who knows, who knows
2026-04-03 07:39:52 Yeah bro. One drone was shot down, two more are still flying over Kyiv. That’s already enough for YES.
2026-04-03 15:15:42 Link
2026-04-03 17:27:32 Ynet? And? Its NO
2026-04-03 17:50:43 Lol
2026-04-03 17:53:39 Only Ynet?)) What other sources are there?
2026-04-03 19:07:00 And?))
2026-04-04 03:04:26 20 - Yes
2026-04-04 05:59:22 Crazy day
2026-04-04 06:32:41 Can you write me on ds or tg? spirit_lt
2026-04-04 22:42:19 What Pnl?
2026-04-04 22:50:51 April 3. Not confirmed. Easy NO?
2026-04-05 01:39:40 Dispute.
2026-04-05 01:40:06 Market rules: If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
2026-04-05 01:40:53 More than three days have passed since the market’s end date. No confirmation has been provided to resolve the market as YES.
2026-04-05 08:09:20 Only ynet?
2026-04-05 10:30:29 Link)
2026-04-05 12:42:24 Lol
2026-04-05 12:50:33 Make a YES proposal based on this information ))
2026-04-05 12:58:24 Maybe its NO?)
2026-04-05 13:08:02 What do you think, given this information, why does the price of NO keep rising?)
2026-04-05 14:08:27 Ok, bro
2026-04-05 14:13:55 Wait until Monday
2026-04-05 15:05:53 Sorry, but 190-200 win
2026-04-05 16:30:33 Trump confirmed
2026-04-05 16:57:26 Trump: We sent weapons to the protesters. We sent them a lot of weapons. We sent them through the Kurds. Not to the Kurds, but through the Kurds. Its YES
2026-04-06 08:03:32 Lol
2026-04-07 05:58:58 Links?)
2026-04-07 07:15:12 Lmao. When?
2026-04-07 07:47:54 Iinks?)
2026-04-07 08:38:04 There is not a single mention of missile impact here. You need to prove YES.
2026-04-07 10:31:14 Why isn’t the price for YES at 100± then?)
2026-04-07 13:19:48 Lol
2026-04-07 22:14:52 Did you decide that yourself?))
2026-04-08 00:22:19 Its over
2026-04-08 00:50:30 Report of damage to a 2-story building in Tel Sheva, southern Israel.
2026-04-08 00:59:35 Wow) Why are we dropping? Yes holders, where are your arguments? Lmao
2026-04-08 09:39:10 More than 3 days have passed since the market closed. The market is not resolving to YES because there is no consensus among credible sources that a strike actually hit (it could have been an interception), and there is no confirmation of which country carried out the strike. According to the market rules, this should resolve as NO.
2026-04-08 20:43:22 Unreal
2026-04-09 10:52:35 ((( 😁
2026-04-09 13:52:25 3 - yes

2026-04-09 22:24:00 It’s obvious from your account’s profitability))
2026-04-10 19:58:33 It looks like the meeting won’t happen today. NO holders (April 10) — congratulations.
2026-04-11 19:27:37 Next scam?)
2026-04-12 15:49:04 )))
2026-04-12 15:52:06 Clearly YES. Read UMA Discord.
2026-04-12 15:57:21 (((
2026-04-12 16:51:29 If this isn’t clearly YES, then why aren’t you buying the entire NO order book? )))
2026-04-12 22:57:55 It’s over. Congratulations for NO-holders
2026-04-12 22:58:23 Buy more NO
2026-04-13 08:57:35 Where in the market rules does it state that approval specifically by Trump is required?
2026-04-14 11:14:36 100%, Because “donk” was said.
2026-04-14 17:01:01 YES. Clearly “donK”. I don’t understand what’s happening with the voting.
2026-04-14 22:28:03 ❗The US operation against Iran has concluded, Trump told Fox News.
2026-04-14 22:56:50 The interview comes out tomorrow, but it was recorded today.
2026-04-15 17:30:23 100%
2026-04-15 21:17:32 At 9 PM, such a sharp temperature jump within half an hour is impossible. I think it’s a bug on the website, which has happened multiple times before.
2026-04-15 23:16:40 Scam!!!
2026-04-23 06:51:40 Lol
2026-04-23 15:35:22 Good argument )))
2026-04-24 17:23:15 What if the meeting takes place outside Pakistan?
2026-04-26 20:16:01 And?
2026-04-29 17:38:58 Inside, bro
2026-04-30 08:05:57 [link removed]
2026-04-30 08:37:58 159,2
2026-04-30 09:41:22 Lol
2026-04-30 09:55:03 That’s funny. Isn’t a post by Trump on Truthsocial considered confirmation?
2026-04-30 09:56:44 Note that this is Trump’s official channel.
2026-04-30 10:11:35 Read rules: “
 if Donald Trump
”
2026-04-30 10:58:40 Trump publicly stated the name “Strait of Trump.” ‱ Truth Social is his official channel. ‱ The rules do not require a formal document or executive order — it is sufficient that he “announces” it.
2026-04-30 11:04:01 Lmao. Nice argument for NO
2026-05-08 22:12:42 Wtf. Discord was down for more than 1 hour
2026-05-08 22:16:20 «Government office staff in Tehran to resume in-person work tomorrow ([link removed])». What could this mean?;)
2026-05-09 06:17:48 You are right that Discord did not show a critical incident on its official status page. However, according to the consensus of sources such as Downdetector, StatusGator, and OutageReport and others the issue was critical.
2026-05-09 15:04:22 A new clarification from Polymarket is needed.
2026-05-10 19:06:07 RAN'S RESPONSE TO US INCLUDES PROPOSAL TO DILUTE URANIUM & TRANSFER SOME TO THIRD COUNTRY - WSJ
2026-05-15 17:56:08 Hantavirus Case Reported at New York High School
2026-05-15 17:57:27 On X com/covid19_disease/status/2055323326764245139?s=46
2026-05-15 19:00:18 Lol. Where is this stated in the market rules?
2026-05-16 18:21:04 Omg. New scam from YES holders. classification from Polymarket is needed.
2026-05-16 20:57:19 Keir Starmer has told friends he intends to step down as UK prime minister and set out an orderly timetable for his departure, the Daily Mail reports.
2026-05-18 05:00:59 Where did the markets for the 17th and 18th go?
2026-05-19 10:48:31 Estonia has shot down a UAV that entered its territory for the first time, according to the Ministry of Defense.
2026-05-22 05:03:40 Thank you, mr president
2026-05-25 13:52:25 All uma voters in NO
2026-05-25 15:11:57 The issue is on wunderground site. They show 93°F (which is 33,9°C), but when switching to Celsius, the site displays 33°C. If wunderground fixes the issue, it should display 34°C instead.
2026-05-25 15:20:49 Did you contact wunderground support about this, or are you waiting for them to notice it on their own?
2026-05-25 16:42:14 Next after poorsob?)
2026-05-25 16:56:04 Need a Polymarket clarification
2026-05-25 17:38:34 “Granddaddy” in this context is not used as a compound term or official designation. It is a common colloquial expression used figuratively to describe the largest or most prominent object among the others. The quotation marks further emphasize the non-literal usage of the word. Additionally, granddaddy and “granddaddy” are not the same in meaning here — the quoted version indicates figurative, rhetorical usage rather than a literal or formal term.
2026-05-25 19:13:10 Need a Polymarket clarification.
2026-05-26 16:19:11 Good market
2026-05-26 16:51:37 Bro, what’s your argument? Step by step, the internet is coming back online (confirmation from the president, Cloudflare Radar statistics, NetBlocks already reporting a partial restoration — all that’s left is consensus from authoritative sources), and in a couple of days the YES price will be at 99c.
2026-05-26 17:22:30 Omg, lol
2026-05-26 18:15:14 Niiiiice
2026-06-01 12:26:45 That is not stated anywhere in the market rules. What matters is whether a sale occurred within the timeframe specified by the market.
2026-06-07 07:20:56 Israeli raid on Nabatieh, southern Lebanon
2026-06-08 08:00:29 NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace on Monday, according to Latvia’s military, with air alerts subsequently lifted.
2026-06-09 14:19:31 Mythos To Be Released Today, Named As Claude Fable. It’s NO
2026-06-13 10:40:39 If you know, you know
2026-06-13 11:10:21 Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif: closer to peace agreement than ever before, finalisation expected within 24 hours
2026-06-13 11:52:31 Now look at the market ‘Where will the U.S.–Iran meeting take place?’ and ask yourself: will the meeting be held in Pakistan or in Switzerland?
2026-06-13 12:00:30 Lmao. You have nice pnl. Trust)))
2026-06-13 13:30:49 Are you talking about your own statistics? Lol
2026-06-13 13:37:45 Learn to analyze accounts before you start trading. The account creation date and the date of the first trade can be different.
2026-06-13 13:42:26 Omg
2026-06-13 14:20:24 You can already buy the 30 cheaper )))
2026-06-13 16:20:26 Rush to disappoint you, but this market isn’t about signing a deal — it’s about having a meeting.
2026-06-14 07:47:16 Qatari officials have flown to Tehran as part of preparations for a deal between the U.S. and Iran — CNN.
2026-06-14 07:54:51 Qatari officials have flown to Tehran as part of preparations for a deal between the U.S. and Iran — CNN.
2026-06-14 08:02:35 Lol. You wrote this when you had a large YES position. I hope the Polymarket team sees everything. Sees where is a true scam
2026-06-14 08:03:46 You wrote this when you had a large YES position. Lol
2026-06-14 16:31:24 😂
2026-06-14 21:27:44 GG notards)))
2026-06-14 22:02:38 Lol
2026-06-15 13:41:23 Yes, sir))
2026-06-16 06:22:02 GG
2026-06-17 22:37:39 Wait wait wait, bro)
2026-06-18 04:02:54 You are wrong again
2026-06-18 06:54:02 Swiss Government: The plan is at present still for the US and Iran, along with Pakistan and Qatar, and other involved countries, to meet on Friday at Burgenstock for initial negotiations on implementing the peace agreement
2026-06-18 10:40:50 Or today, but not in Switzerland.
2026-06-18 17:17:22 ))
2026-06-18 17:59:09 Wait, wait, wait, bro
2026-06-18 20:21:11 😎
2026-06-18 22:18:22 Waiting room :) US, Iran to hold preparatory talks in Doha before signing deal.
2026-06-18 22:37:03 Old, but for today.
2026-06-19 05:37:47 I was wrong — there won’t be any meetings in June.
2026-06-19 05:59:09 You have to be able to admit your mistakes.
2026-06-19 06:52:52 God
2026-06-19 07:17:57 đŸ€
2026-06-19 13:32:07 Real wealth moves in silence
2026-06-19 14:30:49 ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN SAYS WHEN ASKED WHETHER ISRAEL WILL STRIKE IN BEIRUT: WE RESPECT AGREEMENTS, ACT ACCORDING TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM ISRAEL'S LEADERS
2026-06-19 14:31:14 Respect agreements 👀
2026-06-20 20:44:38 Iran’s negotiating team arrived in Zurich, Switzerland.
2026-06-21 11:02:41 Even if the meeting never happens, the market will still resolve to YES because UMA voters are heavily positioned on that side
2026-06-26 17:37:38 Need Polymarket clarification
2026-06-26 17:47:29 US, ISRAEL, LEBANON SIGN TRILATERAL FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
2026-06-26 17:49:00 US, ISRAEL, LEBANON SIGN TRILATERAL FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
2026-06-27 05:57:20 Good thing we learned math in school.
2026-07-01 11:28:23 Dallas — YES. The rules state that the primary resolution source is Waymo’s official rides page, and a qualifying launch requires that the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; on the archived official Waymo rides page from June 30, Dallas is listed under “Serving Riders In,” not “Up Next,” and the page includes “Download and ride” links with no visible “invite-only,” “select riders,” or waitlist notice for Dallas, so if Dallas did not meet the market criteria at the deadline, it is unclear why Waymo’s primary resolution source listed it under “Serving Riders In” without any visible invite-only limitation; if there is official evidence showing that Dallas still required an invitation to book rides on June 30, that would support No, but based on the primary resolution source as it appeared at the deadline, Dallas should resolve Yes.
2026-07-04 14:55:56 Iran's "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" is now charging per-vessel tolls of up to $2 million, payable in Chinese yuan, Bitcoin, or USDT.
2026-07-06 21:21:09 Go dispute. I have a video
2026-07-06 21:30:21 He was just wiping his eyes because a fly flew into them. I can already see that argument coming up in the dispute.
2026-07-06 21:39:52 He was just wiping his eyes because a fly flew into them. Lol
2026-07-06 23:29:51 Thnx for donating
2026-07-08 12:47:54 Iran's Hormozgan airports shut until further notice - Mehr
2026-07-10 10:19:54 U.S. DELEGATION WILL MEET TONIGHT WITH THE COMMANDER OF THE LEBANESE ARMY TO DISCUSS THE EXPERIMENTAL ZONE
2026-07-12 16:18:15 The elections on October 27 will be regularly scheduled, not early elections, and there will be no dissolution of the Knesset. These will be Israel’s first elections held on schedule in 38 years, while the current government will become the first in 53 years to complete its full term in office.
2026-07-12 16:32:47 You’re confusing an early dissolution with a regular election. In a regular election, the Knesset is not dissolved by a dissolution bill—it simply reaches the end of its term.
2026-07-12 17:59:17 If you know - you know
2026-07-12 18:44:08 That’s incorrect. The committee approved the election date, not the dissolution of the Knesset. These are regular elections at the end of the Knesset’s term, so no dissolution bill is required. The Knesset continues serving until the new one is sworn in.
2026-07-12 18:44:38 The committee approved the election date, not the dissolution of the Knesset. These are regular elections at the end of the Knesset’s term, so no dissolution bill is required. The Knesset continues serving until the new one is sworn in.
2026-07-14 20:48:22 The committee approved the election date, not the dissolution of the Knesset. These are regular elections at the end of the Knesset’s term, so no dissolution bill is required. The Knesset continues serving until the new one is sworn in.
2026-07-19 20:26:01 Just because Ronaldinho and Ronaldo were at the show doesn’t mean the Brazil national team was there. The same applies to Coldplay.
2026-07-21 14:01:31 The Houthis prevented four Saudi oil tankers carrying around 5 million barrels of crude from departing today.
2026-07-21 15:20:58 trump confirmed. TRUMP ON HOUTHI BLOCKADE: WE'LL JUST HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS
2026-07-22 21:43:41 Bab Al-Mandab Strait is officially closed! The Houthi controlled Yemeni Armed Forces have announced a major military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers, ENCELIA and LAYLA, alleging that both vessels violated the maritime restrictions imposed by Yemen's Armed Forces. According to the statement, the operation was carried out using multiple ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones. The statement did not immediately provide details on the extent of the damage or the condition of the vessels.
2026-07-24 18:31:27 Beginning
 Ben Gurion Airport temporarily halted departures, with operations expected to resume at 23:00, Ynet reports.
2026-07-24 20:06:18 Who know, who know
 - Explosions heard in al-Hodeidah, Ansarullah-controlled western Yemen.
2026-07-24 20:56:24 Saudi Arabia is bombing Hodeidah, Yemen.
2026-07-28 16:08:18 Netanyahu was not wearing a kippah. See the photos from the meeting.
2026-07-31 20:25:07 Bro, this is unreal. Don’t lock in your loss. Hamas stressed that its willingness to discuss the issue of heavy weapons as part of an agreement was conditional on a number of requirements being met. These include: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the start of reconstruction, the activation of the administrative committee, the deployment of international protection forces, the disarmament of armed gangs and paramilitary groups, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon: “The possibility of establishing a Palestinian state no longer exists after October 7.”
2026-08-05 13:54:05 read the market rules before making a purchase.
2026-08-05 14:38:56 US REMOVES IRAN-RELATED SANCTIONS - TREASURY WEBSITE
2026-08-05 19:51:12 I’m curious what the YES holders are hoping for. That the terrorists will lay down their arms? Or that Israel will be the first to make concessions?
2026-08-08 14:56:06 This will never happen. Look into the issue in more detail. This isn’t about logic or about what we would like to happen.
2026-08-09 11:31:32 Gg, bro. Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”
2026-08-09 11:32:39 Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”
2026-08-09 13:38:05 Lol
2026-08-09 21:20:25 Reports of a vessel on fire off Kumzar, Oman.
2026-08-10 06:07:42 The U.S. has announced that it will lift the blockade of Iranian ports following a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing a U.S. official.
2026-08-10 06:20:21 Bro, announcing it and actually lifting the blockade are two different things. Trump’s mouthpiece can easily announce that the blockade is being lifted — and that would count as an announcement.
2026-08-16 14:17:57 Stop the scam. Polymarket needs to clarify this
2026-08-16 17:41:12 It will never be acknowledged that the drone belonged to Russia.
2026-08-16 18:20:51 “Appears to be” — that’s how it has always been. Everyone knows whose drone it is, but no one will officially confirm it. No one wants the conflict to start.
2026-08-16 19:44:17 Great argument in favor of the YES position. Lol
2026-08-17 06:00:49 You can buy even cheaper.😁
2026-08-17 11:31:35 Waiting for the U.S.
2026-08-17 11:50:04 Wait, wait, wait, bro
2026-08-17 16:41:46 Why are there no new confirmations? Lmao
2026-08-17 18:36:19 In a couple of hours, he’ll say the opposite.
2026-08-17 19:03:21 The incident is not even mentioned in the Russian Foreign Ministry’s materials from August 17.
2026-08-17 19:03:33 Lol
2026-08-17 20:10:51 The text is already written, don’t worry. By the 19th, everything will be clear. * Russia: no comment * Romania: Russian origin has not been confirmed * NATO: “appears to be Russian” Do you really think this is a Yes? 😄
2026-08-17 20:44:32 Iran is giving the U.S. «a few more weeks to fulfill the terms of the memorandum», after which it will “shift from a defensive policy to a fully offensive one.” That is the extension.
2026-08-17 21:27:05 I’m fine with everything. I perfectly understand that someone may try to push the resolution to Yes, but that would be based on sources relying on the opinion of a NATO representative who said that “the drone appears to be Russian.” That’s a loss.
2026-08-18 11:14:30 Mistky gave up. Just a day ago, he was still calling me a clown. Lol
2026-08-18 11:20:54 Is there any evidence that this is a Russian drone? Russia: no comment * Romania: Russian origin has not been confirmed * NATO: “appears to be Russian”
2026-08-18 12:17:27 The key phrase here is “appears to be.” This is not proof that the drone was Russian.
2026-08-18 17:59:35 UAE: Two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran. One fell into the sea, while the other was intercepted.
2026-08-19 06:48:56 File the dispute. We always let the ladies go first.
2026-08-19 08:27:22 The vote in the Verkhovna Rada is in 30 minutes.
2026-08-19 10:58:00 УжД ĐČĐŸŃ€Đș
2026-08-19 13:44:25 Bro, buy the dip
2026-08-19 20:58:07 Bang
2026-08-19 22:17:58 Why you sold?)
2026-08-19 23:11:54 It’s over
2026-08-19 23:19:04 Where there’s a will, there’s a way.
2026-08-20 00:45:15 Read the Discord. There is no confirmation that it was a Russian drone. There is only your desire to make it one.
2026-08-20 13:28:59 Hi, bro. Is this already a new incident, or is it about the 16th?
2026-08-20 13:37:34 I’ve been a bit out of the loop. If you can, DM me on Discord. thnx
2026-08-20 14:08:18 This time it’s definitely a YES.
2026-08-20 14:54:15 Read all rules
2026-08-30 19:58:17 Lebanese MP Ashraf Rifi, who previously served as Minister of Justice and headed the Internal Security Forces, has stated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is clinically dead. “In my assessment, he is either clinically dead, or his political role has come to a complete end. The statements being published in his name are most likely a reflection of a power struggle within the Iranian regime,” Palestinian news agency Maan quoted him as saying. Rifi named IRGC commander General Ahmad Vahidi as the key figure in Iran’s leadership, saying that he had managed to consolidate what remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and concentrate power in Iran in the hands of the organization. According to the politician, this goes beyond an internal power struggle and amounts to a coup d’état. It represents a departure from Iran’s fundamental principle of velayat-e faqih, under which the head of state is the country’s highest religious authority — the Supreme Leader.
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