Account Information

Name: ketomania
Address: 0xfe724b7046696c9c431ae331c3d29816b4799025 ↗️
Address: 0x90a8c8dc8623a2c3f29c3beb695befdbd8593582
Pseudonym: Miniature-Doctrine
Created: 2026-05-29 21:05:48
Last Activity: 1 month ago
Tier: Tier 0
Profile profile-image-8358502-06fb6d32-7680-415a-acf5-622b500be400.png
Total Profit $5,008

Stats

Portfolio value $111.41
Markets traded 72
Trades 72
Largest win $2,982.63
Profile views 61
Join date 2026-05-29 21:05:48
All-time rank 26030
All-time PnL $5,007.98
All-time volume $104,500.18
All-time profit $5,007.98
Lifetime volume $104,500.18
PnL series latest $5,007.98
PnL series start $4,820.04
PnL series points 24
Weighted volume $1,876.65
Geoblock allow No
Geoblock block No
Geoblock close-only No

Biggest wins & losses

Biggest wins

Market Outcome Size PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 6064.5208 $2,941.53
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2434.3185 $1,310.38
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? Yes 3498.4433 $1,250.15

Biggest losses

Market Outcome Size PnL
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? No 8478.5339 $-3,397.00
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? No 1244.1546 $-948.58
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? Yes 2059.1733 $-380.17

Open positions (1)

Market Outcome Size Avg Now Value PnL
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? No 128.5714 $0.07 $0.87 $111.41 $102.41

Closed positions (5+)

Market Outcome Size PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 6064.5208 $2,941.53
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2434.3185 $1,310.38
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? Yes 3498.4433 $1,250.15
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? No 1449.8928 $1,047.76
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Yes 1282.1625 $967.34

Recent activity (5+)

When Type Side Market Outcome Price Size USDC
1 month ago REDEEM Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? No $0.00 81.81818 $81.82
1 month ago TRADE BUY Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? No $0.11 81.81818 $9.32
1 month ago TRADE BUY Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? No $0.07 128.571427 $9.33
1 month ago REDEEM Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? Yes $0.00 3498.443313 $3,498.44
1 month ago MAKER_REBATE $0.00 7.4871 $7.49

Recent trades (72)

When Side Market Outcome Price Size
1 month ago BUY Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? No $0.11 81.81818
1 month ago BUY Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? No $0.07 128.571427
1 month ago BUY Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? Yes $0.49 202.4016
1 month ago SELL Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.20 100.5
1 month ago BUY Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? Yes $0.10 100.5

Comments

2026-06-06 14:06:20 sup
2026-06-06 14:07:02 sure buddy
2026-06-07 14:48:46 frfr
2026-06-07 14:52:25 Açıklama olmayacak.
2026-06-08 23:39:08 welcome!
2026-06-09 13:31:42 Welcome, Claude Fable 5.
2026-06-09 14:03:54 Buy some No for easy money then.
2026-06-12 13:59:24 sup
2026-06-12 17:49:34 Who told you he has one?
2026-06-13 12:41:56 lmao fr
2026-06-13 12:57:46 he said this yesterday buddy...
2026-06-13 13:28:55 u sold mate
2026-06-13 13:35:36 whyd you sell your shares then
2026-06-13 13:36:00 -440 pnl
2026-06-13 13:39:32 yea it wont
2026-06-14 05:12:36 Read the last line of the rules.
2026-06-14 17:00:08 -377 btw
2026-06-15 00:00:49 soo.. what happened??
2026-06-16 21:55:17 You lost.
2026-06-18 13:20:53 Welcome back home, Claude Fable 5.
2026-06-18 14:07:08 -8k pnl btw smartazz
2026-06-18 16:11:36 yet he pnl mogs you to the oblivion
2026-06-19 05:20:07 Hello
2026-06-20 11:39:38 think about it maybe you’ll figure it out
2026-06-20 13:00:07 No he doesn't.
2026-06-20 15:53:48 Where and under what username?
2026-06-21 02:09:16 Starmer, out!
2026-06-21 05:00:58 @shehues are you having a mental breakdown bro?
2026-06-21 08:30:36 Of course...
2026-06-21 09:04:50 rumors pump rumors dump
2026-06-21 10:04:30 he's defo resigning, sell your no
2026-06-21 13:33:39 That came out in April.
2026-06-22 04:09:38 should be 1 am
2026-06-22 08:31:13 he's here.
2026-06-22 08:35:17 "I will resign as the leader of the Labor Party."
2026-06-22 18:56:14 whyd u sell ur shares then mate
2026-06-22 18:57:07 It has to be Mythos class. Sonnet 5 shouldn't count.
2026-06-22 19:02:51 #2 Yes holder for July 1 as of now.
2026-06-23 11:30:17 Takes one Thursday to completely flip the odds over by the way.
2026-06-23 12:43:35 I feel like the July 1 is under priced because Anthropic barely made any statements since the shutdown (except Chris Ciauri) which makes people fearful and hopeless about the outcome even though in my opinion there's still a good chance of it coming back until July 1. This is obviously just guessing though.
2026-06-23 12:46:44 The current share prices are just a proxy of the countdown to the resolution date and are not representing the actual odds of it happening since there's barely any real statements from both parties (Anthropic and White House).
2026-06-23 12:57:15 Do you know what you bet against? The situation is not IT related. It's completely political. Anthropic received a notice from the White House which they asked Anthropic to restrict it's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models to US customers only (export restriction). Anthropic thought this wasn't enforceable so they just took the models down for everyone to comply. It isn't a technical outage or limitation.
2026-06-24 16:30:16 BREAKING CC Update: "This release introduces a new "Fable 5 included" rate limit tier that tracks weekly Fable 5 usage separately from the main weekly limit, with tailored messaging when that included allocation runs out. Model-scoped rate limit data is now returned by the /status endpoint, and in-app announcements can be targeted to specific active models."
2026-06-24 16:56:22 Welcome back home, Claude Fable 5. :)
2026-06-24 17:11:36 BREAKING: Fable 5 has been added back to Amazon Bedrock
2026-06-24 18:23:56 :)
2026-06-25 05:43:04 Sure
2026-06-30 22:41:22 Breaking: White House officials stated that Fable 5 restrictions will be lifted tomorrow.
2026-06-30 22:42:00 Sophia Cai on X: "Commerce is expected to lift export controls on Fable tonight, a senior White House official tells me."
2026-06-30 22:59:32 Check the recent Claude Code updates. They made sure that they can easily flip the switch to make the model available again. Before these updates, it was hard coded into the client that it was disabled. Right now, the disable flag is hydrated by the server and doesn't require a client server meaning they're ready to turn it right back on when they can.
2026-07-01 01:04:37 You wish mate, you wish.
2026-07-07 11:59:04 No, it's just that they always release on either Tuesday or Thursday. Mostly never in between.
2026-07-07 12:04:22 Unfortunately.
2026-07-11 21:54:13 They gotta release it to justify removing Fable.
2026-07-12 19:58:58 fill my order up bois
2026-07-13 06:27:55 LMAO good luck bro
2026-07-13 16:12:59 I'd say next week.
2026-07-14 17:44:18 Welcome, Opus 5. Unfortunately, bye Fable 5.
2026-07-19 07:20:09 They aren’t just following random leaks. They’re basically injecting the information available into markets which is a good thing. Matter of fact, if it was guaranteedly known (api slug or something) the odds would be >95% anyways.
2026-07-23 12:15:14 gg
2026-07-23 16:37:43 dont buy yes for today trust me.
2026-07-23 17:45:17 bad liquidity bro
2026-07-23 17:53:57 Anthropic has never released a model on a Friday to this date. just so ya know.
2026-07-23 18:04:44 I was holding Yes until deciding to flip and buy No from 15 cents. Damn...
2026-07-23 18:17:07 One of the guys that were spreading the fake rumors now said that it's coming out tomorrow. Please don't get manipulated into being liquidity for people that use you for their financial gains. As I said, Anthropic has never released a model on a Friday.
2026-07-23 19:58:45 Yes. Only on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays. You won't find a single outlier.
2026-07-23 20:04:16 Actually, Haiku 4.5 was released on Wednesday because it had to be delayed a day. Really really really doubt this is the case with Opus though.
2026-07-23 20:16:13 No it wasn't. It was released on Thursday, June 20 2024.
2026-07-23 20:17:26 Yeah, the single exception to this out of 19 models released is the Haiku 4.5 which released on a Wednesday.
2026-07-23 20:29:48 This market once again emphasized the fact that Polymarket is HORRIBLY inaccurate when predicting an events date compared to predicting the outcome/details of an event which has a known date/time frame.
2026-07-24 13:32:43 yea
2026-07-24 13:32:54 bad decision mate
2026-07-24 13:51:08 pnl speaks for itself bud
2026-07-24 14:07:36 💀
2026-07-24 14:49:32 第二大骗局即将上演！
2026-07-24 15:10:48 ya im doing great
2026-07-24 15:20:40 no
2026-07-24 16:14:35 hopium
2026-07-24 16:43:16 cooked lol
2026-07-25 13:07:40 will GPT-6-7 count?
2026-07-27 10:02:46 resolve peeps
2026-07-27 20:36:32 Both were published on July 27 2026. You can see the price graph for 1490+ jumping to >90c in 00:30 AM (July 27)
2026-08-01 09:53:32 lol
2026-09-03 18:11:22 only for daybreak which is not public access. ggs.
2026-09-03 19:42:59 lmao
2026-09-03 19:46:13 not to the general public
2026-09-04 19:50:53 Tibo posted about it.
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