Account Information
Name:
Dargdarg
Bio:
The call me dargdarg for a reason.
Pseudonym:
Spotless-Anise
Created:
2025-06-10 17:10:05
Last Activity:
2 months ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-3026967-d5df5bfa-b633-41ac-aa64-f5d161293d50.png
Total Profit
$-16,600
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$0.00
Markets traded
437
Trades
437
Largest win
$10,075.49
Profile views
1,947
Join date
2025-06-10 17:10:05
All-time rank
3085697
All-time PnL
$-16,600.47
All-time volume
$2,646,100.70
All-time profit
$-16,600.47
PnL series latest
$-16,600.47
PnL series start
$-16,600.47
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$15.83
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 52926.8281 | $10,075.49 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | Yes | 45103.6879 | $7,575.36 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 26685.3638 | $3,479.89 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | Yes | 34397.2663 | $-32,484.33 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 37070.7279 | $-6,363.92 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4200 August 4–10? | No | 9301.4264 | $-3,671.17 |
Open positions (1)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 410.3863 | $0.03 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-10.41 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 52926.8281 | $10,075.49 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | Yes | 45103.6879 | $7,575.36 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 26685.3638 | $3,479.89 |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 9181.4669 | $2,428.88 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 17006.817 | $1,685.84 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? | No | $0.99 | 5 | $4.96 |
| 3 months ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 1.601 | $1.60 | |||
| 3 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $0.78 | 2513.75 | $1,960.72 |
| 3 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.11 | 465.56 | $51.21 |
| 3 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.11 | 496.88 | $54.66 |
Recent trades (437)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 months ago | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? | No | $0.99 | 5 |
| 3 months ago | SELL | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $0.78 | 2513.75 |
| 3 months ago | SELL | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | No | $0.99 | 309.47 |
| 3 months ago | SELL | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | $0.82 | 193.71 |
| 3 months ago | BUY | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.03 | 384.61 |
Comments
2025-06-17 19:34:40
Would be totally pointless to attempt anyway.
2025-06-17 20:37:58
What a weak insult lmao esp with only 470 profit of your own.
2025-06-17 20:40:46
This video having 21mil views in 2 months is proof our society is utterly cooked.
2025-06-17 21:08:34
Go easy on Yes holders guys, they just flew in from stupid town and boy are their arms tired.
2025-06-17 21:44:30
BREAKING: Bad... It's a good show, watch it if you haven't
2025-06-17 22:07:54
Yes holders, did you just blow in from stupid town or what?
2025-06-17 22:08:59
not even close
2025-06-17 22:16:31
How bout noooo
2025-06-17 23:36:55
You know why they call him Flydart? Because he just flew in from stupid town and boy are his arms tired.
2025-06-18 07:42:53
My asshole burns with the intensity of a thousand hot chilli peppers that I've been stress eating all night.
2025-06-18 15:59:49
Nothing new has come out right?
2025-06-18 16:20:44
ironic post or?
2025-06-18 18:47:58
I think jewish right?
2025-06-18 19:23:34
pweeeetty fwickin cwazy news huh guys?
2025-06-18 19:24:22
this pweeeeeetty much changes everfing huh?
2025-06-18 19:30:37
can I have nuclear weapon twumpy 👉👈🥺
2025-06-18 19:33:13
[link removed]
2025-06-18 21:14:42
rut roh: [link removed]
2025-06-18 23:34:02
Polymarket, genuine question, what's the point of rule text that you just clarify against half the time?
2025-06-19 06:38:27
You just blow in from stupid town or something?
2025-06-19 17:51:53
What news are you guys even trading on.
2025-06-19 17:54:04
Thank you for posting, but I can't believe you guys actually believe trump will negotiate anything with Iran. Didn't think yall were this gullible lol. He's gonna get a deal with Iran just like he did with Russia 🙄
2025-06-19 18:09:28
true, but keep in mind if Trump is speaking, he's lying.
2025-06-19 18:09:57
True, but if Trump is speaking, he's lying so be careful.
2025-06-19 18:10:01
t
2025-06-19 18:27:54
Statistics show he's slower from this point till noon friday. Expect lower numbers.
2025-06-19 19:48:58
look harder
2025-06-19 19:49:24
but he is bush league
2025-06-19 21:52:20
Ig flydartball is just a degen gambler after all 😂
2025-06-19 22:06:44
fucking elon lmao
2025-06-20 00:58:37
Thank you based elon for being such a lying scumfuck and blessing us with free money
2025-06-20 03:02:39
if I send you $10k will you double it and send it back within 2 weeks?
2025-06-20 04:34:18
I'll have you know I didn't fail a single IQ test.
2025-06-20 04:38:38
You got a lot of competition at end of year
2025-06-20 15:43:27
dargdarg always wins
2025-06-20 15:49:06
Sandra please comment in chat
2025-06-20 15:58:12
women ☕
2025-06-20 15:59:20
please rename to Noobnoob
2025-06-20 16:04:02
Sandra starting her own polymarket charity, god bless 🙏
2025-06-20 16:43:19
my mom, be nice please
2025-06-20 17:18:25
because something has to interpret real world events and relate that to the fuzzy definitions of words and meaning that define the rule text. While I agree with you, some kind of structured voting system is needed. Or more commonly a panel of somehow neutral judges.
2025-06-20 17:46:52
yo retards, stop driving up Yes price. You're going to lose, accept it. I'm trying to fuckin arb here.
2025-06-20 17:51:37
POGOs
2025-06-20 20:12:31
goofy aah elon aaahh
2025-06-21 01:08:39
ig you guys just don't care that the israel bomb insider is buying massive in this market?
2025-06-21 01:11:45
I'll say again: ig you guys just don't care that the israel bomb insider is buying massive in this market?
2025-06-21 03:10:30
the only thing Israel will be carrying out in the next 2 weeks is deez nutz
2025-06-21 03:27:28
Oh look it's the thing elon has been saying will be coming out for years and never delivered. I'm sure this time will be different...
2025-06-21 16:27:56
they guy is there to take control, passenger or not. He'll have driving controls at his fingers tips most likely and that'll count for "physically positioned to take control"
2025-06-21 16:43:02
So you have chosen death.
2025-06-21 17:28:26
That is a bad thing to want guys do NOT want this, it's VERY dangerous. Fat girls are notoriously HUNGRY with SHARP teeth for devouring all that FOOD cause they're FAT. Your donger just looks like a TASTY CORNDOG to them. Please guys DO NOT ENJOY TOOTHY HEAD FROM FAT BITCHES GOD NO.
2025-06-21 22:01:59
There's no doubt US is gearing up to attack, but the US military isn't going to let anyone know when it happens. They're STEALTH bombers for a reason. It won't show up on flight logs or any other tracker and it won't be announced. The fact that there's so much telegraphing of a strike right now in the media means they're not attacking in immediate following days.
2025-06-21 22:02:33
No one knows or cares who you are though so why post?
2025-06-21 22:03:06
A random guy with no shares thinks this is free money! Amazing!
2025-06-22 01:23:55
[link removed] "massive damage done to forlow site"
2025-06-22 01:27:54
[link removed] "It appears the United States just completely obliterated Iran's top secret nuclear facility with six huge bunker buster bombs"
2025-06-22 01:33:33
Correction, only UMA knows 😉
2025-06-22 01:45:51
🤣🤣🤣
2025-06-22 01:45:59
better buy more No then
2025-06-22 01:54:17
guys IAEA confirms "savage attack" but don't worry, it was only the entrance 😂
2025-06-22 23:11:24
You'd think so right?
2025-06-22 23:13:15
If there's reason to believe evidence is pending, they'll keep the market open, but if not it ends June 30th. Obviously the actual destruction must occur beforehand.
2025-06-22 23:26:48
gotta be a public release not private
2025-06-23 02:40:36
yeah, Elon, exactly
2025-06-23 09:27:35
Welp, them attacking again indicates the B2's and thus strongest attacks didn't destroy it. Certainly some israel weapons won't do any better. Big Yes blow.
2025-06-23 09:29:22
Israel didn't count before, won't count now. Their word is worthless.
2025-06-23 09:33:15
[link removed]
2025-06-23 18:42:12
the rules of this market are met. Someone get some bankroll to buy up the market and propose. The rules don't say "formal american tuxedo suit", he's wearing a suit. The attire he is wearing is formal also.
2025-06-23 23:48:49
Wait till the final dispute is issued and watch the price
2025-06-23 23:49:18
The disputers are on our side lol
2025-06-24 00:57:33
[link removed] No new strikes, things have stopped
2025-06-24 01:05:44
[link removed]
2025-06-24 01:06:34
2 ez
2025-06-24 01:26:03
Anyone else got a boner?
2025-06-24 01:33:45
are you real disappointed by that lol?
2025-06-24 01:40:01
Old news dumbass
2025-06-24 01:42:17
What does that dumb shit even mean lol
2025-06-24 01:54:56
Yes retreating from a bond market lol
2025-06-24 04:29:14
[link removed]
2025-06-24 07:42:58
Holding the price up above 95c? Wdym?
2025-06-24 19:31:58
The discord server clearly shows multiple sources saying no missiles got thru and some saying one hit the dirt. Neither scenario counts and that's certainly goes against your "consensus".
2025-06-24 19:33:10
Go to the UMA discord to present your argument to voters! (P4 for the No side!) [link removed] A strong argument is 1) there's no consensus and 2) a single missle hitting dirt near the base does not count as "hitting a target" as hitting the dirt is literally missing the intended target.
2025-06-24 19:34:00
You don't even have consensus on if there was an impact and what it hit.
2025-06-25 01:58:50
[link removed] "Pentagon's intelligence assessment say Iran's centrifuges are largely "intact" and the impact was limited to aboveground structures" Now even the pentagon intel is saying they weren't destroyed. Better hope they send in another airstrike No boys.
2025-06-25 02:00:13
Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.
2025-06-25 02:07:23
😍🤩😍🤩
2025-06-25 02:09:20
Begone shareless cuck
2025-06-25 02:11:21
Just a wakeup call to Yes holders. Right now UMA resolves against you, you're holding a 25c bet that by the end of month some new evidence comes out and right now the opposite is happening.
2025-06-25 02:18:36
Well unfortunately the WH isn't either of the primary sources on this market. Guess what the primary sources said about fordow?
2025-06-25 04:02:01
Those 1.7 inches are straight as a board huh?
2025-06-25 04:25:17
"erm well actually according to chatGPT" ☝🤓 soundin aaaaah
2025-06-25 04:26:18
sooo you're saying we need evidence to confirm it? Dumbass🤣 I will crush you.
2025-06-25 05:53:28
Half the year is already over so this is actually 20% APR
2025-06-25 18:03:48
UMA already voted on this EXACT suit he's wearing and they voted it wasn't a suit. Why do you think it'll be any different?
2025-06-25 18:05:57
Are you retarded or blind? The suit is near identical.
2025-06-25 18:07:32
The market doesn't resolve on what the media calls it, there were media outlets calling it a suit last time too. Clearly the spirit of this market is a formal american style suit where the pants are cut from the same cloth. That's already been established.
2025-06-25 18:10:58
I love that you think that ChatGPT's vision abilities is "research" lmao
2025-06-25 18:11:32
I think it is a suit, I thought it was a suit the first time he wore it, UMA didn't think it was a suit and all the whales don't think it's a suit. I'm not retarded enough to go against the people who LITERALLY DECIDE MARKET RESOLLUTIONS.
2025-06-25 18:12:24
but anyway I was just looking for the argument for Yes, it seems very weak so I'm happy to have some cheaper No shares in the end.
2025-06-25 18:14:02
they didn't. "in their place is a blazer (albeit with military overtones), dress pants, and a dress shirt, sans necktie." They called it a blazer. A blazer isn't a suit and has never been.
2025-06-25 18:15:41
That article is citing Fox News anchor calling it a suit and other right wing pundits.
2025-06-25 19:50:38
"Independent" lol
2025-06-25 20:01:24
Who'd have thought the biggest degen gambler on PM would be a woman.
2025-06-25 20:53:08
so how far are they in the game atm?
2025-06-25 21:06:15
death counter isn't even accurate 🤣
2025-06-25 21:13:14
they miss deaths sometimes
2025-06-25 21:21:33
freest money in the world lmao. These dudes might be the worst gamers on the planet.
2025-06-25 21:26:18
CAn we get more brackets?
2025-06-25 21:47:41
Sorry update on the new brackets, go to this discord link: [link removed] and add "thumbs up" emote to @DargDargTheDestroyer suggestion to add more brackets to this event. Cause it's not even a question they're going over 100.
2025-06-25 22:00:27
Yes holders still spamming the chat with cope 😂 consult the last UMA vote people.
2025-06-25 22:03:12
hey if it wasn't for them we wouldn't make money so 🍻
2025-06-25 22:04:47
Last UMA vote didn't care what the media said. This one won't either.
2025-06-25 22:06:26
1c?
2025-06-26 01:14:06
You retards are still spamming 🤣
2025-06-26 05:44:00
Good try on the more brackets guys, we can't make polymarket get off their lazy asses and do their job unfortunately. This could've been so much more fun if they put the slightest amount of effort and made it right the first time.
2025-06-26 18:20:25
Nope, still invite only.
2025-06-27 02:35:23
An official from the IAEA has given his technical opinion that the centrifuges have been rendered non-functional from the attack from his own expertise and satelite imaging. The BEST evidence would be a walk-in inspection, but we're likely to not get such a thing within a proper timespan due to Iran's blocking inspection and the unsafety of doing so. While I think the proposal should have waited till end of month, there really isn't going to be any better evidence than this. Iran has confirmed that all their facilities sustained heavy damage while not referencing the centrifuges specifically. This is an argument about threshold of evidence required to proof a fact and the threshold should be practical. One side should not win on the technicality of "the evidence isn't perfect". If it's highly highly likely in the analysis of the IAEA, why shouldn't it pass as Yes?
2025-06-27 02:37:12
In an ideal world, this goes P4 for now, and then at end of month if nothing changes it goes P2.
2025-06-27 03:33:56
Your position is lookin a little obese there my friend.
2025-06-27 03:39:23
No one cares about any of that btw. IAEA head says "we already know that, given the power of those weapons and the technical characteristics of a centrifuge, we know that these centrifuges are no longer operational. These are machines with delicate positioning—there are rotors, there are parts—so the damage must have been total" that's good enough for UMA. Otherwise we'll be waiting till late July or August before the IAEA is allowed to access the site to do an in-person assessment. This is highly convincing evidence form the rule's primary source, let it go.
2025-06-27 03:54:25
Just an update: [link removed] He's not moving forward with amended claims and thus has dropped the lawsuit entirely making it impossible for his lawsuit to be fully dismissed by a judge.
2025-06-27 03:56:45
Prior consensus on discord and lack of anyone proposing indicates the June 9th dismissal was not "full" and only "partial" dismissal. So this new news of him not pursuing the lawsuit further is essentially a nail in the coffin for Yes outcome.
2025-06-27 04:06:07
Trying to scam?
2025-06-27 04:06:20
Soooo why'd ya flip then?
2025-06-27 04:30:40
Where do you see this shit? UMA disc?
2025-06-27 05:13:31
Celebrating off a 10c price swing when reveal phase hasn't even started yet lol
2025-06-27 09:21:27
😍
2025-06-27 11:30:36
Fordow may be destroyed, but it will always live on in the hearts of No holders everywhere.
2025-06-27 18:43:36
Said the man, bravely clutching no shares at all as he takes a sip from his honey melon bobba tea.
2025-06-27 18:57:57
Said the small boy, wiping the sweat from his head over the intense trading session that involved putting his entire monthly allowance of $60 on the line. He could have bought robux or fornite skins with that money, but instead he was risking it all for that $2 bag.
2025-06-27 20:20:07
No boys be yapping alot.
2025-06-27 22:08:49
There's no consensus. The Daily Beast, Reuters, Euronews, Firstpost, The Times all implied or directly said it wasn't a suit. That's not consensus.
2025-06-27 22:09:32
Just to be clear, the consensus argument still fails even if you got some Fox news sources calling it a suit. The Daily Beast, Reuters, Euronews, Firstpost, The Times all implied or directly said it wasn't a suit. That's not consensus.
2025-06-27 22:29:47
BBC and CNN did not call it a suit lil buddy
2025-06-27 22:30:17
It has to man, end the scam!
2025-06-28 01:06:18
I laught extra hard at anyone who would lose their savings on this website let alone this goofy market. If you don't value your own money, why would I?
2025-06-28 01:07:10
ITs not really different though.
2025-06-28 04:42:09
Better hope that happens in the next 3 days.
2025-06-28 04:47:15
There's a chance the judge could convert the prior dismissal without prejudice into one fully WITH prejudice within the next 3 days due to Baldoni dropping the suit and lapsing the amendment date. If he doesn't it should go No by the rules.
2025-06-28 05:57:18
You have no power little buddy, stop convincing yourself you do.
2025-06-28 05:58:00
There doesn't need to be "No" consensus, there just needs to be a lack of "Yes" consensus
2025-06-28 15:15:10
t
2025-06-28 19:45:56
they can reveal whenever, yeah
2025-06-28 19:46:11
or even chose not to reveal at all (their vote won't count if they don't reveal)
2025-06-28 21:29:46
nows your time to flip No back to where it belongs boys
2025-06-29 01:04:26
Yurp
2025-06-29 06:40:04
Thank you brother
2025-06-29 06:42:07
You're gonna have to ask the whale holding The Yes side up my brother.
2025-06-29 07:44:33
Post your arguments in Evidence Rational section of the UMA discord: [link removed] This should go P2 - Yes.
2025-06-29 22:03:47
They're just generous people man. They want us to have money, it's actually very kind. Didn't think there were this many kind people in the world.
2025-06-29 22:10:13
I mean it was literally just deemed not a suit yesterday too in another vote lol.
2025-06-30 03:25:30
You just blow in from stupid town or something?
2025-06-30 04:40:54
Also preemptive lol @ the retards who will still dispute this tomorrow and throw away an additional $1.4k on a UMA vote that has already been voted on twice now with MASSIVE majority on one clear side.
2025-06-30 04:43:42
Yes? It's called the market price goofy retard lmao.
2025-06-30 04:44:13
The entire UMA panel of judges voted 99% P4
2025-06-30 04:44:55
This thing... a-called UMA... you just... can't handle it!
2025-06-30 04:46:36
Do you know that for a fact? No you don't, you're just doing conspiracy bullshit with no evidence. Like a Trump voter.
2025-06-30 04:51:36
Yup.
2025-06-30 04:55:33
All of them, except the ones that didn't. But we don't talk about that.
2025-06-30 06:49:26
@All Yes Holders: Yer fakin MAM wore a suit last time I saw her.... HER FAKIN BIRTHDAY SUIT goteeeeeeeeeem.
2025-06-30 17:40:17
Yep, this will get flipped to Yes in the next voting round 👍
2025-06-30 21:05:39
Stop crying you fuckin loser. Go to a casino, you're too dumb to trade prediction markets.
2025-06-30 21:48:56
imagine believing this goofy retard about anything. Remember the robo taxi market.
2025-06-30 22:35:59
Brother you're too dumb to be real. He told people to buy it and it didn't even public release this month goofy dumbfuck 🤣. Baited everyone. Oh and he lied about robotaxi for 4+ years before that. Oh and he lied about cutting gov spending, he promised 2 trillion and barely got 100 billion. He lies non-stop.
2025-06-30 23:01:16
We get it, stop spamming
2025-07-01 04:34:10
Yes cunts yap more than women on the view
2025-07-01 04:35:42
Is the history you entered 6 figure negative PNL?
2025-07-01 04:39:36
@Thonker aka ImTiredB0ss [link removed] ily fr tho
2025-07-01 05:25:10
you forgot news outlets don't resolve polymarket, the rules and the voters do
2025-07-01 05:40:52
@imtiredb0ss why you sellin bro
2025-07-01 05:45:07
how lmao
2025-07-01 05:48:57
god speed
2025-07-01 06:03:13
Scam her last money guys SCAM HER LAST MONEY
2025-07-01 06:04:10
Yes holders I ask you all one simple questions: Did you guys just blow in from stupid town or what?
2025-07-01 06:04:29
aenews has 600k+ shares you goofy little boy
2025-07-01 06:15:30
Your asking for help to a chat full of people that 99% hate you. UMA probably banned you the second they saw your dumbass dispute this market. Why do the dumbest people have so much fuckin money in this world?
2025-07-01 06:57:34
someone propose this
2025-07-01 07:07:44
Yeah the volatility of the UMA token does suck
2025-07-01 07:11:28
What "leaks" do you have lol?
2025-07-01 07:11:58
What about all the sources that call it a blazer and not a suit?
2025-07-01 07:12:53
heart framing from Yes holder on No is crazy work 🤣
2025-07-01 07:14:04
Thank you. You actually understand the "consensus of reporting" clause correctly and everything. Well done.
2025-07-01 07:36:05
at least you're honest
2025-07-01 10:04:32
Don't give away the cheat codes dude wtf
2025-07-01 10:45:57
I love how aenews is the villain of this market for some reason 🤣
2025-07-01 13:45:29
How dumb do you feel right now?
2025-07-01 14:47:18
He gon do it
2025-07-01 21:20:26
It wasn't an intentional scam, it's just the UMA system isn't perfect always. They've since improved it so that doesn't happen.
2025-07-02 14:30:25
Yes holders still at it like a crack addict.
2025-07-02 15:06:00
Yes is trying to argue this part of the rule "-Any other felony conviction explicitly tied to sex trafficking as part of the factual basis for the conviction, as confirmed by the court’s judgment or credible reporting" has been satisfied because they think the charge he was found guilty of 18 [link removed]. § 2421 "Transportation to engage in prostitution of 'Jane' (and others)" is sex-trafficking related. It's explicitly not, ask any lawyer.
2025-07-04 21:33:35
Oh look, elon lying again also grass is still green.
2025-07-04 21:53:51
why are you lames so damn pesimistic?
2025-07-04 22:54:20
If he cared about all of that why the fuck would he repeatedly announce the party idea to begin with? Why would he have blown up against the president in the first place? You're applying the wrong logical framework to Elon, plain and simple. You're not modeling his behavior accurately.
2025-07-05 03:40:00
Like if you think I should sell my No shares and switch to Yes.
2025-07-05 18:29:56
What could this mean?!
2025-07-05 19:50:13
its over
2025-07-05 20:43:15
sure is
2025-07-05 21:09:41
muh liquidity
2025-07-06 01:54:04
Read. The Fucking. RULLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLES
2025-07-06 17:23:01
Yeah maybe Musk could lend you one of his boring machines from his Boring Company to help you dig yourself out of that hole you're in.
2025-07-06 19:28:27
Like if you want to take a massive dump in mango-lassi's mouth.
2025-07-06 19:31:29
Like if you want this to go P3 (I'll vote P3 with my 40k UMA tokens if over 15 likes)
2025-07-06 19:31:59
CoffeeLover? More like CummiesLover :]
2025-07-06 19:36:18
FUCK I guess I'll have to sell my No shares. The people have spoken.
2025-07-06 22:22:37
The issue is, while you're waiting for it to return to 50c he could do it.
2025-07-07 19:08:02
Bro doesn't understand probabilties
2025-07-07 19:11:25
Bro doesn't understand probabilities ig?
2025-07-08 05:26:01
his birthday suit?
2025-07-10 01:38:07
Nope, it's 2657.96
2025-07-11 04:46:30
waaah I couldn't force my lotto ticket to win waaaah
2025-07-11 05:33:59
Lil bro can you do me a favor and shut your broke ass up?
2025-07-12 06:38:05
imagine being the retard that bought this at 90c+
2025-07-12 14:36:12
That's not an announcement, that's an algorithmic message that happens for everything.
2025-07-14 15:55:52
bitcoin holders have BPD I swear
2025-07-14 16:54:38
What's the pope logic? He's done nothing and influenced no one.
2025-07-18 01:27:46
Bro if [link removed] is saying it, it's gotta be true
2025-07-18 01:53:14
It must've been RealNiggaReloaded. Thonker was always in with the wrong crowd 😥
2025-07-18 01:55:58
Lmaooooooo
2025-07-18 01:57:33
Save us Gennedy!!!
2025-07-18 02:29:13
Can you link the BBC article
2025-07-18 02:30:35
He put about $4.3k on Yes, what shithole country will that buy you a "nice car" in lol?
2025-07-18 02:32:17
Gennedy noooo lololol
2025-07-18 02:34:23
Gennedy, if you click the "Market" button above the order panel, there's a "Limit" option you might want to look at.
2025-07-18 03:55:52
Better pray 50p doesn't dispute 😂
2025-07-18 03:58:08
The dispute doesn't have to win for it to be profitable.
2025-07-18 03:58:25
but liquidity is kinda low so you might be safe
2025-07-18 04:13:46
Or do they?! Dun dun DUUUUN
2025-07-18 16:05:46
liquidity people, let's go, close these spreads.
2025-07-18 17:43:14
yeah wtf
2025-07-18 19:05:11
The clarification helps your side, what are you talking about?
2025-07-19 04:17:41
gatorade be thirsty
2025-07-19 06:01:13
No matter how pretty her face, there's someone somewhere who is tired of her shit. That someone was Mr. Byron.
2025-07-19 07:11:45
Kinda matters who ya do it with bud.
2025-07-19 07:15:17
It was me... sorry man. Ngl I was bored and I like using my money to make poor people squirm.
2025-07-19 07:41:56
Yestards on some goofy shit right now
2025-07-20 15:57:57
My name yeff
2025-07-20 15:58:34
PLEASE bitcoin DO SOMETHING
2025-07-20 16:13:41
oof well next time write that in the gat dayum rules boy
2025-07-20 16:14:13
we supposed to be gat dayum mind readin clairvoyant spirit weavers er somethin?????
2025-07-20 16:48:21
I have a feeling you're gonna need a raise
2025-07-20 17:16:03
"we all know what this was about", market movements and two proposals disagree with you bud. You can't be so handwavy in your argumentation.
2025-07-20 17:16:41
if you want to argue that, fine, but the other guy is arguing something totally different. He's reinterpreting the rules in his own specific way based on some magical "thing we all totally knew"
2025-07-20 17:22:36
Yeah it should always be clear cut what happened. It's pretty crazy to think the EU is lying about there being a ceasefire though. I mean that's what you're suggesting.
2025-07-20 21:01:39
[link removed] Looks like IDF is accumulating for something big
2025-07-20 21:04:08
Man can the fuckin no side guy placing orders at 88c+ CHILL
2025-07-20 21:22:21
fuck
2025-07-20 21:55:03
my irl name is Gilbert, roast me
2025-07-20 23:39:10
I have to say I genuinely love thonker, he's on some RNS 24/7 365 and I respect that.
2025-07-20 23:41:27
lmfaooo
2025-07-20 23:42:23
which animation of yours would you say you're most proud of?
2025-07-22 05:35:04
then buy some little poopy pants aah nigga
2025-07-23 01:30:19
eh, I sold my No shares. Seems likely to come this month. Sam said summer and I have friends doing contract work near MS HQ that they're aiming for a release very soon and it's meant to be a surprise drop. The new version they're saying is hard to control hence the delay, but it's passed QA phases already and is just waiting to be flipped on.
2025-07-25 03:47:07
Your mother and I are so proud of you son.
2025-07-25 03:47:37
Welp, that's all folks. Paperhanded crypto tards dropped the ball yet again.
2025-07-25 04:18:41
Prayin on emma3986's downfall 🙏
2025-07-25 18:21:20
There's at least a 70% chance this gets passed this year especially with Trump fast tracking the GENIUS bill and it experiencing little to no hang-ups in the senate. The same will happen with CLARITY around September.
2025-07-29 14:37:05
As usual, all talk no walk
2025-07-29 14:38:09
Hello?
2025-07-30 17:00:11
You just blow in from stupid town or somethin?
2025-07-30 22:02:08
Oof, bad swing m'dude
2025-07-31 15:05:34
I stole it bro sorry, you left your IP wide open had to take advantage. It's ok thou, you can get it back at mcdonalds by working there.
2025-07-31 20:47:51
Regarding Mexico: No official tariff agreement was met, both parties have stated they are still working on a deal, however the Yes argument is that "tariff exemption extension" was issued which does count per rules. However, no tariff exemption was in place for Mexico to extent. There was a word of mouth (informal) threat of tariffs that never was on record (EO or lawful document), and simply NOT following through on a threat is not a tariff exemption. Further, nothing was signed or officially announced as a tariff deal, the rules specifically say INFORMAL agreements don't count.
2025-07-31 21:46:42
"Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count." Trump posting some shit on truth social about a phone call is the DEFINITION of an informal agreement. Nothing was finalized, nothing was signed.
2025-07-31 21:48:56
What tariff exemption is being extended? Literally none exist. You prematurely bonded.
2025-07-31 21:52:23
To be clear, a 90-day extension of existing tariffs DID NOT OCCUR. There is no "extension" here, you're giving Yes side too much credit. Trump literally made a word of mouth threat that he might raise tariffs on Mexico after July, but he simply decided not to after speaking on the phone with Mexican official. The tariffs on mexico simply haven't changed, there's no "extension" to speak of.
2025-07-31 22:45:53
There's a lot of retards on the No side that keep repeating false information about "90-day extension" so I will reiterate: To be clear, a 90-day extension of existing tariffs DID NOT OCCUR. There is no "extension" here, you're giving Yes side too much credit. Trump literally made a word of mouth threat that he might raise tariffs on Mexico after July, but he simply decided not to after speaking on the phone with Mexican official. The tariffs on mexico simply haven't changed, there's no "extension" to speak of. ALL of this is googable or just ask your friendly AI to explain it.
2025-07-31 23:53:24
Yeah... you realize official people can have informal agreements? Did you seriously bond 10k shares on this logic you're espousing right now?
2025-07-31 23:54:01
Like you have a different argument that you're going to post to ER right?
2025-08-01 00:03:08
Agreements not related to tariffs don't count. Says it in the rules.
2025-08-01 00:03:20
Can you find the market that went No? Should be good evidence for the ER post.
2025-08-01 00:42:49
thanks
2025-08-01 01:16:24
Why are you pretending to be aenews lil bro?
2025-08-01 02:50:51
The EO doesn't even impose any new "reciprocal" tariffs on russia anyways. It's a moot point.
2025-08-02 15:50:23
The guy who's been saying FSD was right around the corner for the last decade?
2025-08-04 14:24:52
My childhood nickname was PoopyAssMan
2025-08-06 17:56:03
"GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count) or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. " So it'd not count, because it doesn't follow the sequence Gpt-3 - Gpt-4 - Gpt-5
2025-08-06 19:06:07
you guys are overbuying. anything over 95c is over confidence. Last time they demoed a model live, they didn't release it until a week later. You sure you want to hold 98c till then?
2025-08-06 19:27:08
I literally bought these shares a few minutes ago doofus.
2025-08-07 23:03:19
just zero liquidity in these markets, 4-5c spreads, useless
2025-08-08 18:14:15
This is where I lose everything boys.
2025-08-09 05:07:11
Bravo whoever pulled off that market manipulation move to 4200
2025-08-09 11:44:21
it happened
2025-08-09 22:07:08
Yall t'arn't t'understandin. GPT-5 is just a fine tuned auto switcher. There's no new model underneath, o3 is the best (smartest) open AI still has. o4 isn't fully released yet and isn't planned. So even if they restore GPT-5, it won't outpreform prior benchmarks where Google already has them beat.
2025-08-09 22:49:01
You'll see
2025-08-11 15:33:35
Almost certainly will have a saftey driver in the seat, which won't qualify. They'll need to get DMV approval under the sept. 1st new rule which usually takes months of testing IF it gets approved to get full, no saftey driver service.
2025-08-11 15:35:07
People about to get baited by another Elon tweet lol. Just remember a saftey driver won't count which it will certainly have so be warned. the DMV approval for no saftey driver will take a long time if it gets approved at all.
2025-08-12 01:02:49
literally says in the rules safety driver doesn't count.
2025-08-12 01:34:36
" police department under federal control and deployed 800 National Guard troops in the capital city to address what he claimed was out-of-control crime there." Also DC national guard is on active duty in washington at this very moment, that satisfies yes. What else could possibly satisfy yes at this point? Do you want footage of an offical soldier marching?
2025-08-12 01:41:43
how stupid are you dude?
2025-08-14 16:12:59
texas only
2025-08-15 15:52:47
Chubbito's bot prices are straight up criminal.
2025-08-15 22:37:37
Zelensky isn't in the alaska meeting
2025-08-15 22:41:40
You need to stop typing and start working so you can have some actual money to bet lol. Seriously why are you here? To win $10?
2025-08-20 04:46:55
iForgor sold 2,500 Yes shares a few hours ago. "I'm going to sell sometime next week". Must be a student of Car's School of Innumeracy and Dumfuqery.
2025-08-20 04:53:27
@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?
2025-08-29 22:50:09
It's not though? If this leftest judge issues a TRO or stay on Trumps action to fire Cook, then it's over for september at the very least.
2025-08-31 01:10:41
There literally is though? [link removed] ctrl+f august.
2025-09-01 02:40:44
What a twist :D ...
2025-09-01 02:44:46
shut up loser, no cucks allowed
2025-09-16 07:58:16
Crazy respect if you actually make it brother. This is no easy feat and takes insane resolve.
2025-09-16 08:06:14
If miles was going to scam this, scamming towards No is retarded. There's 4x more money to be made on the Yes side than No's thin orderbook.
2025-09-16 18:28:11
Wrong. Consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
2025-09-17 15:04:42
And here we have a full retard in his natural habitat.
2025-09-18 07:01:43
A power outage issue that'll be resolved within no more than 12 hours and yall panic sell lol. The fast needs to be continuous, not the stream.
2025-09-18 13:18:31
t'ain't lookin good boys!!! Today is the day. He either cometh or he doth not cometh.
2025-09-18 13:20:44
The real rug pull would be to pull this stunt, load up on cheap Yes shares, then come back with footage.
2025-09-18 22:15:48
I'd like to think he finally got to eat that cheesecake in the end.
2025-09-18 22:25:28
Why do bad things always happen to the best people?
2025-09-18 23:59:53
[link removed]
2025-09-19 00:11:08
[link removed]
2025-09-19 00:20:43
Maybe he was flown back to US?
2025-09-19 07:48:57
Yikes Miles is an even bigger loser than I thought.
2025-09-20 15:41:25
The Yes position is a bit absurd at this point, I had to sell a bit ago. We're really betting that a guy who hasn't posted to anything in 3+ days is somehow magically recording everything? With what? He has no power and if he did have power, then he'd be able to post something, ANYTHING. So how do you reconcile that? If he needs power to have evidence of his fast but power would also enable him to update us, then there's no explanation for his radio silence. 30c is a wild price for that kind of gamble. -EV for sure.
2025-09-20 18:38:35
The rules and clarification clearly states that the fast must be documented. Only small gaps are allowed. No "documented" doesn't mean writing a journal or making an X post. It means video evidence.
2025-09-20 18:41:53
Bytedance/tiktok doesn't need to say it. As long as they don't deny it and credible reporting confirms it, it'll count.
2025-09-20 18:50:59
Definitely not 70-80, but at least 50-55 range
2025-09-20 18:57:56
suggest it
2025-09-20 18:59:34
What bag? No holders are up right now lol.
2025-09-20 19:01:15
Because he's in the hospital or giving his insider buddies time to collect on shares? Your position right now is that Miles is deliberately scamming the market, but he's just scamming it in your favor. Total blind gamble. Which is cool, just saying it's a pure risky gamble where your thesis is literally mind reading lol.
2025-09-20 22:12:25
Did you just blow in from stupid town or h'what?
2025-09-20 22:15:11
Did you just blow in from stupid town or something?
2025-09-20 23:45:03
Why are you guys so delusional? Genuinely asking. Did you vote Yes on the suit market as well?
2025-09-21 09:59:04
[link removed]
2025-09-21 10:06:14
It's not a speculation to say the Miles secretly bought No with an account funded by one of his wallets. It's also factual the place he's at has cell service, you can literally prove this information right now.
2025-09-21 11:09:44
They do, but it's still shooting yourself in your foot. Building a strong social media presence is way more profitable than some meager 60-100k rugpull.
2025-09-21 11:16:59
I did read it, yeah. Can you explain specifically where the "speculation" is happening? I've a programmer whose worked with smart contracts before, I'm seeing mile's ETH wallet, (in one instance) transfer 15k to another wallet and then that wallet calls polymarket's smart contract deposit function to send the 15k to a polymarket related address. That address then makes on-chain purchases of No positions for this market's conditionId. Where's the casual chain broken here?
2025-09-21 11:19:29
Because lord miles is still currently holy No shares?
2025-09-21 12:02:46
would be interesting lol
2025-09-21 23:29:08
You're the 10th retard today to make this dumb ass joke. Congradulations.
2025-09-21 23:34:58
There was a market about whether dungdung would return all the droplets to the hive before month end. That one was pretty bad due to the trackers constantly failing and dungdung being basically indistinguishable from the others on the footage alone.
2025-09-22 09:57:25
I'm glad you're able to be so jovial with how much money you're about to lose. It's almost like gallows humor in a way.
2025-09-22 10:05:18
indisputable 100% confirmation was deemed impossible within any reasonable timeframe, so UMA went with the next best thing, sat footage and the opinion of IAEA head.
2025-09-22 11:20:19
Unironically kill yourself.
2025-09-22 11:22:29
PSA To some of most retarded human beings I have ever seen, and no you are not trolling, you actually believe this: A dead body is not "Lord Miles". A dead body cannot carry out a "fast". Lord Miles is a living person. A fast is an action that can only be carried out by a living person. The moment Lord Miles, the living person ceases to exist, the fast becomes incomplete because Lord Miles isn't there to complete it. Holy FUCK.
2025-09-22 12:10:03
Fasting is an on-going action, it is a METABOLIC STATE of a living organism, not merely the lack of eating. A fast is something a LIVING ORGANISM performs. The second the living organism expires, it can no longer fast. Do you really see all dead bodies in a cemetery as being in a state of fasting? Like I know you're trolling me dude, no one is this dumb, but the fact that multiple people have posted this makes me think they're not joking anymore lol.
2025-09-22 17:27:56
Ok this is erm actually based. I retract my prior argument. He's still fasting.
2025-09-22 17:41:20
Listen all I'm saying is it's assassination season round about now and I wouldn't want to be a public figure pissing everyone off during such a time. Just word to the wise
2025-09-22 18:45:47
Retard posted a paywalled news article lmao
2025-09-22 21:04:47
The best market ever is sitting here waiting for days while nothing happens?
2025-09-22 22:41:46
det negative IQ don't be too mean to him
2025-09-22 22:53:48
Ask your caretaker to explain the rules of this market to you.
2025-09-23 14:19:27
u gon bet oh wise mention sage?
2025-09-23 20:55:39
What are you yapping about lil poopy pants?
2025-09-23 20:58:26
It's funny because yestards actually believe this
2025-09-23 20:59:19
And that helps your case because...
2025-09-23 21:07:08
Being a NoVirgin isn't as sexy as being a gamble brain YesChad believing in miracles I must admit.
2025-09-23 21:15:35
If bytedance signs any deal that relinquishes majority ownership of US tiktok, it counts. The algorithm specifically doesn't count, correct. Actions obviously count as intention as well as words. That said, september is unlikely for that to happen, so you have a good position.
2025-09-24 06:56:50
Discord: jumbojeff, lost around $800 on Yes position after radio silence.
2025-09-24 07:32:44
Even though the rules retardedly redefine what an apology is as this lose "statement of sorrow or regret" his statement, which is obviously not an apology as the media already has recognized, isn't really sorrowful or regretful. If I say "Hey your dress looks a bit small for you" and someone cries and thinks I called them fat, me saying "Whoa, it was never my intent to call you fat" is not an expression of sorrow or regret for what I said. It's a clarification at best. If he wasn't crying this wouldn't even be a question.
2025-09-24 07:37:08
nice market buy Car lmao
2025-09-24 07:49:26
His tears express sorrow on their own, idk if you'd call that part of the statement. Regardless how do you know what the sorrow the tears convey are about? Could easily be about him being relieved to be back and stressed over the whole situation. The sorrow has to be expressed explicitly about the Kirk statements and his prior political response to the situation.
2025-09-24 08:09:16
Who's redefining? I don't think you're understanding my words? I'm saying merely expressing sorrow with his tears isn't enough to fulfill the rules. For example, if he got on stage said and just cried and then got off the stage would that count? No, because that's not a statement and it's not clear what the sorrow is about. The sorrow has to be specifically about his statement regarding charlie kirk.
2025-09-24 18:04:14
It's a clarifying statement of his intention, not a statement of regret. Do you know what regret is? He didn't even remotely imply he regretted saying anything.
2025-09-24 18:54:49
Can we get a little honesty for once here on polymarket? Give me a straight answer: How many of you just blew in from stupid town?
2025-09-24 20:15:54
u is v smaht
2025-09-25 12:25:11
Which doesn't matter because you're too stupid to actually sell and take the profit.
2025-09-25 12:25:55
Lawsuit?
2025-09-25 12:45:23
People are aware signing the deal, which is a framework deal not agreeing to any actual ownership transfer, will not count for Yes on it's own right? Bytedance has to actually announce their intent to go forward with the sale for it to go Yes. Taking steps towards a sell deal won't count.
2025-09-25 12:48:50
They have no pull over UMA so, I doubt that.
2025-09-25 17:06:03
RIP 50p o7
2025-09-25 17:51:17
Brother they're not moving ownership in september. A statement is the only shot for september.
2025-09-25 17:57:08
there's still a chance they won't make the deal
2025-09-25 17:58:44
No.. no it's not lol.
2025-09-25 18:26:05
I have no idea why they added that retarded bit at the end about the licensing, because it's redundant. It only counts if they license the algorithm to a company that is "a US entity that will operate TikTok". So they can't license it to just anyone for it to count; it has to be a US entity that will definitely be controlling tiktok. (which requires an explicit stated intention to sell ownership to that company already). Pointless addition.
2025-09-25 20:02:11
Bro just market sold down to 58c lol
2025-09-25 20:10:39
What um... why did you do that again?
2025-09-25 20:18:08
If there's credible reporting that bytedance signed the deal, then it goes Yes, if no such reporting exists, it's P4
2025-09-25 20:30:44
I got a raging deal brewin in my pants boys
2025-09-25 21:14:04
that is really actually barely gonna definitely really happen
2025-09-25 23:14:45
He's a philanthropist. Generous guy.
2025-09-25 23:48:34
jesus dude lol, hey the site needs people like you guys man. cheers.
2025-09-26 02:08:25
cantswim market sold No boys, ITS HAPPENING
2025-09-26 20:26:41
@homeruns is not miles aaah!
2025-09-26 20:30:08
added, waiting
2025-09-26 20:31:28
what are you implying? WindWalk3 is going to shoot himself in the foot with half a mil shares on No?
2025-09-27 16:14:04
you is VERY smart
2025-09-27 16:57:23
are you mentally ill? What are you even talking about? The same context? mfer his x is now private and we haven't heard from him in over a full week...
2025-09-27 17:33:42
ANWSER HIM
2025-09-27 18:00:34
Whatever happens, whether he comes back or not, footage or not, there's nvery little chance this ever goes Yes in the end with everything that's happened. Yes may pumpy, but so does my cock when I jerk off to yer nan's pics. It always goes back down in the end.
2025-09-27 18:01:07
UMA ain't eva gonna give it to him. He fucked around too much.
2025-09-27 19:26:05
The polymarket staff changed the rules about 3 times so far in ths market. They mean fuck all, this market is too big now and there's literal proven fraud involved.
2025-09-27 23:35:19
Dargdarg feel sad for alpha. Dargdarg want to take away his hurt.
2025-09-28 00:48:57
he ain't sellin bra
2025-09-28 01:14:45
uh... BASED?!
2025-09-28 01:21:34
HOMERUNS IS A BITCH FOR SELLING EARLIER
2025-09-28 01:30:29
lmaooo
2025-09-28 03:20:47
I put together a little trade analyzer for this market mostly to show how much Yes holders were SCAMMED from miles stunt right afterwards: [link removed] MAKE US WHOLE AGAIN MILES
2025-09-28 06:02:16
infringe I question your wallet address analysis DEEPLY. brother do NOT listen to the voices
2025-09-28 07:25:30
I agree with you entirely btw. Polymarket runs scam markets dude, you just have to accept that. This is far from the only one. They wrote the rules lose af and the clarifications lose af for a reason. It's not on accident.
2025-09-28 16:42:00
Miles I just want you to know you are a retard for how you played this. There were about 5 different ways you could have "scammed" this opportunity you were given WITHOUT taking a hit to your reputation. Instead you took the dumbest route imaginable where everyone will now think you're a scammer for the next few years. All for 60-80k? You could've made so much more and saved your rep. Soooo dumb.
2025-09-28 20:53:00
lmaooo u were right bro
2025-09-28 21:09:44
SAUDI JAILS HAVE 24/7 SURVEILLANCE AND TYPICALLY STARVE PRISONERS ANYWAY, THIS IS PROOF
2025-09-28 21:18:31
I love people like you stumpy!!! BUY MORE BROTHER THANK YOU
2025-09-28 21:46:41
Crazy gamble on his end tbh, but he got it in the end.
2025-09-28 22:07:52
your charity extends beyond polymarket even o7
2025-09-28 22:10:36
This information is important for upcoming lawsuit, never forget what we lost: [link removed]
2025-09-28 23:00:59
we already have evidence he couldn't complete the fast. Dude got arrested. (not really, but he claims it so he's the source)
2025-09-29 00:05:55
It does make it impossible to provide evidence of your fast.
2025-09-29 00:16:32
This announcment could've came out any time the last week and had the same effect
2025-09-29 01:51:16
the idea that you people believe there's a 10% chance miles comes back and has all this evidence is wild. UMA people work in tandum with polymarket people, who miles has made an absolute fool of btw. They're totally aware of what happened with miles in this market. If this even goes to UMA, the voters are not giving him the W. Not in a million years. And that's under the impossible chance he somehow comes back with footage. There's realistically a 1% chance at this happens being optimistic.
2025-09-29 02:44:51
I just realized this is resolvable. The tweet is credible evidence and claims he's been locked up for 2 weeks and "hasn't seen light". That means he's unable to complete the fast and certainly unable to provide evidence of the fast. There's no world where he was not allowed to have his phone, but somehow able to record himself in Saudi Arabian prison for 2 weeks straight. Someone can propse this based on the clarification text stating the market can resolve if the fast was "violated in such that it cannot be completed in the time frame, or abandoned and discontinued". The tweet is literally stating that it can't be completed with the evidence requirements.
2025-09-29 16:04:25
I mean it's a 12 million dollar market on a gambling website. You don't just pick and choose which markets to care about based on the topic. It they're complicit with fraud, that taints everything.
2025-09-29 16:05:07
Lord Miles? More like Gaylord Miles, am I fuckin RIGHT BOYS!
2025-09-29 18:03:16
you retards think a ceasefire is possible lol, more degens left on poly than I thought
2025-09-29 19:22:22
bud we know you're not miles. Stop the bit
2025-09-29 19:23:12
Guys don't worry "he planning on doing another 40 day fast n the future" lol
2025-09-30 15:02:16
You have a genuine problem dude, you need to seek treatment unironically.
2025-09-30 17:21:53
if its like tiktok where you can post, view others posts, and do duets, that counts as a social app per the rules. Comments aren't required.
2025-09-30 18:11:35
thank you for outlining those factors
2025-09-30 18:23:29
The most annoying thing about your scam spamming is that it literally can't work. You're just posting random fucking letters and numbers. Are you a sentient human being my brother? Like even at the scammer table you're a loser lol.
2025-09-30 18:23:56
It's time to get a job my boy
2025-09-30 18:24:24
Not liking the PnLs on the No side vs Yes side lol
2025-09-30 18:24:34
NOT LOOKIN GOOD BOYS
2025-10-03 19:19:50
@kuprel where did you get this sudden confidence Elizabeth is going to be pardoned?
2025-10-04 06:23:58
Israel likes to bomb right up until the last minute. See: the iran ceasefire.
2025-11-10 04:53:06
careful what you ask for
2025-11-10 05:01:27
Believe his pnl.
2025-12-10 18:44:43
This market does not support your avatar thesis my boy.
2025-12-10 20:23:36
Jensen having higher odds than Altman is proof yall are clueless
2025-12-10 20:40:59
Free money is free money
2025-12-12 03:24:58
If it's hidden, it's not available to normal users... Like what point are you even arguing right now?
2026-02-28 22:04:34
Looking at Yes buyers, I'm surprised how many brain damaged folks are out there. You think anyone, even someone as retarded as Trump, is going to "definitively state" on any platform that aliens exist? You understand the kind of destabilizing affect that would have? Obama's "I believe aliens exist somewhere in the cosmos" is not nearly enough to qualify. The days of UMA scams are over and Trump literally promised the Epstein files and STILL denied them and refuses to release them without heavy redactions and censoring. You're legit delusional thinking he'd come out that aliens exist even if they did exist and they had proof.
2026-03-01 10:45:55
It bares repeating because he still hasn't done it, keep defending a literal pedo felon though, looks good on you. Also your retard logic of "hurr why bet X% for Y% gain" is retarded because it's free. The real chance of this happening is less than 0.1%. The market is grossly mispriced. If you understand how math works, you take that bet every time.
2026-03-01 10:46:36
Also It's cute you think ~$4k is 80% my capital lol. Not everyone is broke like you and your family sir.
2026-03-01 23:49:19
I think people, especially the whales on the Yes side are just banking that these "files" being dropped will spike the price of Yes even further and then they'll dump their position when that happens. It's a plausible theory ngl, but the files dropping will just be my que to buy more N. The end result will be the same.
2026-03-12 18:14:25
No? Even if he was president, he said he believes aliens exist but he hasn't seen them and they're not being held be the US. The rules required a definitive statement of them existing, not merely stating a personal belief that they exist.
2026-03-12 18:55:06
You addicted to losing money or something?
2026-03-14 00:57:55
and yet you have no shares bitch, silence!
2026-03-18 02:45:06
You have zero shares lol
2026-03-18 02:45:54
What a bunch of retarded positions lol
2026-03-20 14:51:44
This is just a theory I have but from what I've gathered a significant portion of the Yes buyers have accounts that have recently flew in from stupid town. Food for thought.
2026-03-20 14:54:09
Uhhh don't look now blud, but that whole 'tism-graph you just wrote up applies 100% to yourself. Like the fuck you postin' random media for if you ain't even trusting media monica? You good?
2026-03-23 15:51:45
If you're relying on what trump says alone, you're going to have a bad time. Iran isn't even directly communicating with the US and is denying any talks. Israel has their own goals too. A full ceasefire is still a while out.
2026-03-23 15:52:42
Dude already has more shares in both dates than your entire lifelong net worth lil bro.
2026-03-23 18:21:39
He is. He has a Yes position on this market and a No position on the ceasefire market. They're very similar markets and actually the conditions for a ceasefire are less than this one so the fact that he's on No there means he believes there will be no total halt in military engagement.
2026-03-24 16:06:02
Honestly March 31st would be so much easier to hold if it wasn't for these lame ass insiders. There's multiple insiders with fragmented accounts who are all sold on something happening Mar 31 or Apr 15. Check @itslirrato on x if you want to see the accounts. This insider shit is lame cause there's legitametly no way we're getting a unilateral ceasefire by Mar 31st, but these fuckers clearly have insider info so idk. Apr 15th I guess has a chance, but I still think Mar 31st is cooked.
2026-03-24 16:16:01
I fully agree with you lol. I'm talking about the insider problem. One of the accounts perfectly timed the Feb 28 attacks, literally hours before, the others all bet on the 21st about trumps announcment that occured yesterday 23rd. They're still holding depsite theta decay biting them pretty hard so it's concerning. They clearly know something the public doesn't.
2026-03-24 17:37:06
Yeah but here's the thing, no they didn't
2026-03-24 17:38:22
Anoin is down almost 5 mil, I wouldn't worrya bout him too much lol.
2026-03-24 17:44:07
People buying now are gonna get butt fucked by the theta decay over the next 4 days. Learn to time your bets people.
2026-03-24 17:44:21
People buying Y now are gonna get butt fucked by the theta decay over the next 4 days. Learn to time your bets people.
2026-03-25 00:55:32
Well that kind of financial decision making is probably why you don't have one.
2026-03-25 14:28:34
@NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS Imagine being an insider and STILL fumbling the bag 🤣🤣. Hey, if you guys lost money on this, just be happy you're not that dumb.
2026-03-28 04:39:22
Yeah this gif shit was a mistake lol.
2026-03-31 22:46:10
Every "share" you buy is worth $1 if that share wins and $0 if it loses. So if you buy a share at 40c and it wins, you made 60c which is 100/40 = 2.5x your cost (aka your bet).
2026-04-03 03:03:06
It's really easy to understand. On one market you have 2 solid reliable news sources who both use independent sourcing (NYT + The Guardian) and dozens of smaller signal boosting news sources (IBtimes, Israel times, etc) clearly stating phone calls happened. On the other market you have possibly the biggest most massive retard liar to ever exist saying a vague "talk" happened in the past. Can you spot the difference?
2026-04-05 04:17:51
You guys have to be the biggest fuckin babies on the planet I swear.
2026-04-05 04:25:16
Yep burn another $750 😂 How do the mentally handicapped get so much money?
2026-04-05 04:27:33
Hey @gggkj instead of disputing a market you can't possibly win, how about giving that $750 to a charity for the mentally disabled and actually help your people out?
2026-04-05 04:33:55
5k wasn't enough losses? You had to add another 750 to it? Better dispute Dec 30th too add another 750 to the burn pile 😂. Actual subhuman.
2026-04-05 04:40:09
Reopen for RD2 boots on the ground? Huh?
2026-04-05 04:42:40
Literally 0
2026-04-05 04:43:01
Oh my gorsh I lost my shitty bet?? SCAM SCAM SCAM SCAM
2026-04-05 05:07:19
Go No holders are so stupid. That clarification was for march 31st lmao.
2026-04-05 05:07:43
retards gonna retard
2026-04-05 05:08:10
"Waaah I'm a retard that lost a bet waaaaaaaaaaah"
2026-04-05 05:12:52
@Duderr "Incursions into the Golan Heights including Mount Hermon do not count." LMAOOOO
2026-04-05 05:27:53
Without ground samples clearly imprinted with standard issue US military boots analyzed by 3 separate forensic laboratories we can't be sure they actually touched the ground. P4
2026-04-05 05:32:02
Troops may have touched the Iranian ground but we have no confirmation they were US troops as they've not provided their birth certs, addresses, SSNs, and 2 forms of photo identification. I'm sick of this fucking SCAM site bro. We're counting ILLEGALS as US troops now?! Fuck you fuck you fuck you fuck you fuck you
2026-04-05 05:35:10
And you don't know what a strawman is 🤣
2026-04-06 02:33:29
Boys he's been "probably dead" for a over a month now. This market isn't about whether he's alive. This market is about if we'll find out he's dead by X date. Iran has been hiding it for over a month for a reason. They're not gonna tell anyone on purpose for a while.
2026-04-06 03:20:55
Unreliable reports are useless. Let me know what the price of this market is same time tomorrow after nothing substantial comes out as it has been. Get ready to lose 10% of your position waiting on confirmation of information they are deliberately hiding. Nothing's changed.
2026-04-06 03:27:49
I think you're missing mine. I'm saying, most of us assume he's dead already. Why else would he have no public appearance or proof of life since the 28th? You think it's good for Iranian moral to be led by a ghost leader? I'm saying we all know he's probably dead. That's not what we're betting on. We're betting on whether it'll be officially reported on. You're naively assuming Iran officials will be honest about his condition. They'll only admit it if they can't deny it.
2026-04-06 03:58:58
The people with real money thought he was either dead or near dead. This news changes nothing. The little $10-50 gamblers that have no clue what they're doing aren't important. Their thoughts aren't moving the market price. Everyone with money knows there's a very very good chance he's dead or a vegetable. This news isn't really going to change what the bet is about. As you can see the price didn't need much time to come back down lol. It'll go lower by tomorrow too.
2026-04-06 05:31:35
Vegetable and dead are the same outcome. The news wire said that his location was being targeted for bombing so that price jumped and then some unreliable rnd sources said he's dead, so people think that changed some odds calculation, but it really didn't. Think about it, if he's being kept under lock and key, his status and location is a government secret. Now tell me how could anyone on the outside possibly know if he's dead, vegetable, or whatever if they're keeping it secret? Bomb anywhere in Iran, they won't admit he's dead. No US or Israeli intel knows his location. It took them 9 months to find Saddam Hussein and that was under a competent and determined administration. The only way we find out is if Iranian inner regime circle wants the world to know. If they don't want us to know, we're not gonna know.
2026-04-06 05:33:04
I will say EVENTUALLY they will have to admit his status, but while they're at war and seek stability, they won't. Not until they find a suitable replacement anyway. I just think that'll take at least a month or so.
2026-04-06 17:49:55
The reason was they weren't expecting the first one. Now they are. Big difference from that and being in lockdown. Also notice how the price did exactly what I said it would? My only point here is that the news was nothing. Nothing is 100% but that news didn't change the odds.
2026-04-07 14:25:31
I really don't get where the Yes side optimism is coming from. At least for April 7th. Are you guys reading the news?
2026-04-07 15:50:15
Hey man we need people like this to make money. Without them it's brain havers vs brain havers and that's no fun lol.
2026-04-07 16:41:24
WSJ: Trump in “defiance mode,” emboldened after airmen rescue operation; open to a deal with Iran but not expecting one.
2026-04-07 16:41:58
Unless they're Iranian gov insiders they're not insiders.
2026-04-07 16:42:55
There's been talks behind the scenes for a week lil bro.
2026-04-07 16:48:21
LOL. I hope for your landlord's sake you do too. That's gonna be one hell of a cleanup job otherwise.
2026-04-07 19:24:07
BREAKING: Pakistan's prime minister asks Trump to extend the deadline by 2 weeks
2026-04-07 19:25:09
None
2026-04-07 19:27:54
[link removed]
2026-04-07 19:41:00
Can PM staff ban that bot spamming orders then removing them on the order book?
2026-04-07 20:21:11
lmaoooo
2026-04-07 21:00:43
🚨"Some good news is expected from both sides soon, a deal is expected to be finalized tonight," — regional source to CNN
2026-04-07 21:03:06
[link removed]
2026-04-07 21:03:11
Some kind of “deal” between Iran and the United States is expected to be closed by midnight tonight, regional sources tell CNN, with the source stating that “some good news is expected from both sides soon” and that discussions were steered directly by Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir.
2026-04-07 21:41:44
It most certainly does mean a Yes lol. Are you dumb?
2026-04-07 22:22:02
[link removed]
2026-04-07 22:30:37
If ur addicted to gambling why tf would we send you money on a gambling site? Get a job.
2026-04-07 22:30:54
If you keep spamming you will be banned.
2026-04-07 22:42:52
Once iran confirms, it's gg Y takes it. Consensus of reporting can also happen.
2026-04-07 22:43:09
Yep, this is none of those. This is a double sided ceasefire, learn to read.
2026-04-07 23:30:39
So, for the people in the back that can't read: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump officially announces that this deadline has been extended or will not be enforced by Tuesday April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. WILL NOT BE ENFORCED BY TUESDAY APRIL 7th, 2026. DOY ITS NOT BEING ENFORCED DOYYYYYY
2026-04-07 23:39:48
Buddy, Trumps exact words: "I'm suspending the bombing and attack of iran for 2 weeks". There is still a deadline, in 2 weeks, to make a final deal otherwise attacks resume. Do you understand what a deadline is?
2026-04-07 23:42:53
What lol? If he attacked the deadline is being enforced via the punishment. A temporary timed ceasefire that will resume if they don't make a deal, is literally a deadline and it's the SAME DEADLINE CONDITIONS AS BEFORE but it was pushed back 2 weeks.
2026-04-07 23:44:53
I'm gonna blow your mind guys ready? Notice how the words "apple" and "plant" are both different right? But check this out... an Apple is a Plant 🤯🤯🤯. A temporary 2 week ceasefire is ALSO a deadline extension. The literal same criteria (make a deal or get bombed) as before is still in place, but instead of it elapsing TODAY it's elapsing in TWO WEEKS. So yes, a ceasefire can also be a deadline extension.
2026-04-07 23:50:58
Your choices are, lose money now or lose money in 2 days.
2026-04-07 23:53:04
🤣 The guy JUST learned about disputing and UMA today and he's alrady trying to put 750 on it without knowing how it works. Gotta love these people man, we wouldn't make money without them.
2026-04-07 23:55:56
So you're saying if Iran agreed to open the straight for 1 day and then closed it again, that would count as them meeting the deadline? The deadline is about making a deal about the Strait being open permanently. It's opened temporarily while they make that deal. The deal is not made yet, a temporary stop gap is in place.
2026-04-08 00:22:44
Anyone disputing this needs to spend $1500 ($750 x 2, every market has 2 dispute slots) dollars to do so, just fyi and you're almost certainly going to lose that dispute.
2026-04-08 00:24:18
Many of the top Yes holders are veteran users with hundreds of thousand to millions and years spent on this website. Going against them is very stupid.
2026-04-08 00:42:14
Sorry No holders, you don't meet the IQ requirements for this website.
2026-04-08 01:27:07
Its an announcement/deal market you idiot READ THE RULES. They don't have to adhere to it, just agree to it.
2026-04-08 04:33:31
Just want you No holder lotto ticket boys to know, all the other month's markets resolved Yes. The way UMA works, April 7th must now resolve Yes. The UMA resolution system is built like that. Never in the history of many years of polymarket multi-time event like this one ever resolved inconsistent with other months/times. They ALL resolved Yes, so April 7th will resolve Yes as well in 2 days.
2026-04-08 04:35:09
Why are you making things up? They're not "in review" because they RESOLVED already, Yes holders got their money No holders lost their money. I cannot be changed. Only April 7th remains and it'll resolve Yes in 2 days automatically.
2026-04-08 06:13:22
None
2026-04-08 06:13:52
don't
2026-04-08 06:35:47
You dropped this
2026-04-08 06:36:52
No fees on geopolitics DUMBASS
2026-04-08 06:38:30
To any cry baby No holder that's about to post some dumb ass argument:
2026-04-08 06:41:35
That's from 5 hours ago you fuckin moron. It's 2:40 ET so that'd be April 7th.
2026-04-08 06:57:31
Read. The. Rules.
2026-04-08 07:07:17
Just fyi, if you think you have a magical confirmation of Iran striking Israel, then just post on the "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by..." market. Which is currently more liquidity and at around 50-51c for April 7th. Because if a strike happened that market will go to zero.
2026-04-08 22:44:31
Car v Some Homeless Guy, who will win?
2026-04-09 02:05:34
How hard is it for you fuckin retards to read the rule text? It's only like 3-4 sentences.
2026-04-09 02:44:30
Are you guys fucking retarded?
2026-04-09 21:56:32
duderr you greedy bitch 😭
2026-04-09 21:56:58
bonkers STFU
2026-04-09 22:05:39
na your plays good, just wanted to get my 95c fills first 😉
2026-04-09 22:14:26
Fuck it guys, I'm flipping to Yes, this time it's different!
2026-04-09 22:28:40
You are proof that the ability to speak does not make something intelligent life. Seriously you people should be sterilized.
2026-04-09 22:29:36
No he's actually that stupid.
2026-04-10 02:59:19
You're an idiot. Please shut the fuck up. Thank you.
2026-04-10 09:14:06
Correct. Any strike on Apr 8th and beyond makes this go No. There have not been any strikes on Apr 8 ET or beyond yet.
2026-04-10 09:17:24
You've had this explained to you multiple times already (which you shouldn't even need) and you STILL don't get it. You genuinely are too stupid to use this site and I'm saying that as a kindness to you so that you don't lose your money. You're literally just a retarded gambler that has better chances in a casino, because at least in casino you can't misinterpret the rules, just press the shiny button. THE APRIL 8TH STRIKE WAS GMT+2 (israel) TIMEZONE. THIS MARKET IS ET TIMEZONE. THE APRIL 8th GMT+2 STRIKES HAPPENED ON APRIL 7TH ET. YOU FUCKING RETARD.
2026-04-10 21:10:22
Direct quote from @Pierce-81 (aka 81 IQ pierce) "A strike on April 8th at 4AM GMT+2 Israel is April 7th 9PM ET, now you tell me If I say market starts on April 7th is April 7th 9:00PM ET before or after April 7th!?". That is an actual thing that this guy is confused about. This is the level of intelligence Yes holders are up against.
2026-04-11 03:49:05
Sure I'll explain it. April 7th 9:00PM is not after April 7th becase its ON APRIL 7TH DUMBASS. ITS NOT AFTER ITS NOT BEFORE, ITS ON APRIL 7th. God damn it dude, please never post again.
2026-04-11 15:38:13
Thonker FUCK YOU for disputing April 10th. COME ON MAN.
2026-04-11 15:38:39
Obviously not. Fuckin dispute abusers.
2026-04-11 15:51:21
I hate everything!
2026-04-11 15:58:26
Yeah Apr 11th is P4 at least.
2026-04-12 20:43:12
brother Yes is the side that needs to buy. The price is super good entry point still at 5.5x gains.
2026-04-13 00:07:30
This one should definitely go Yes by the rules. Wouldn't be at all inconsistent with the Vance market resolving No, obviously that one requires Vance. This one requires US representatives and either Iranian representatives or mediators on their behalf which Pakistan was. At first I thought this a scam, but after seeing the evidence, it actually should count by the rules. Whether UMA cares about that is another thing of course.
2026-04-13 00:15:46
Blud, did you really put $750 try and save a position worth $26? Please tell me you have alt accounts with biggest positions or something.
2026-04-13 00:16:50
my fellow degen, did you really put $750 to try and save a position worth $26? Please tell me you have alt accounts with bigger positions or something.
2026-04-13 00:37:35
I done seent the light. Though we are going to need some big boys willing to hold up to at least 40c if we want a chance I feel like. UMA may mindlessly see the market price and vote in favor otherwise.
2026-04-13 02:53:10
Jessica went P1 N, she's big in UMArocks right? Who's going P2?
2026-04-13 03:39:41
UMA votes are favoring Y so far. People are finally reading the arguments and understanding what happened.
2026-04-13 03:47:09
[link removed] go to the "dispute-threads" channel and find the thread with this market's name on it.
2026-04-13 06:29:18
This isn't the vance market goofy, this is the US market. Any representatives from the US will count.
2026-04-13 14:44:08
14 mil in volume on apr 7th market and absolutely no liquidity. Polymarket get some fuckin rewards going.
2026-04-13 14:45:20
Bro why are you consistently saying the dumbest shit in the comments? You couldn't even read the fuckin ruletext and understand how the start date for the 14-day period worked. Didn't I tell you to sell and go play roblox or something?
2026-04-13 16:23:09
I and multiple people have already explained it to you. You can't understand a simple concept. If the 14-day period starts any time on or before the date listed, then it will count as Yes. I just tested ChatGPt and Claude and they both agree. You're just dumb and delusional dude, accept it.
2026-04-13 16:47:33
INTEL: TRUMP ON IRAN REMARKS
-Think Iran will now agree on nuclear
-Will get Iran nuclear dust back
-Called this morning by Iran, they want a deal
-Many ships heading to US to load up oil
-Could resolve Iran before tankers get to the US
@SolidIntel_x on X
2026-04-13 17:19:55
I guess you're just stupid? Iran didn't have it fully blockaded, only for certain people (US and allies). It's fully blockaded now causing economic damage to iran and its allies.
2026-04-13 17:54:47
And now you're sending me nonsense AI generated messages lol. You literally claimed the strait went from "blockade to blockade" as if that was weird. It went from "blockaded for non-iran allies to blockaded for all". Sanctions are irrelevant.
2026-04-14 04:00:14
Bro really just asked how is a naval blockade not force used against SOIL. Nigga boats FLOAT ON WATER DUMBASS.
2026-04-14 17:58:24
Because you can't read.
2026-04-15 04:08:32
Shouldn't April 14th have been proposed already?
2026-04-15 17:43:07
weird
2026-04-15 18:38:56
Yes boys are straight RABID man
2026-04-15 21:55:54
ggs, was intense
2026-04-16 04:20:25
Yo @Bordoteth, closing thoughts on your plays this evening? Goofy aahhhh tupid aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
2026-04-16 18:06:52
Prepare for retards to dispute this due to their retarded obsession with burning money. Pro tip: Money is good to have. You want to have money. Losing money is bad. Not having money = bad.
2026-04-16 18:50:54
Look on the bright side bud, at least you ain't a lil bitch nigga... oh wait... HAHAHAHAHAH
2026-04-16 18:53:42
dispute this market if you're gay
2026-04-16 18:57:07
As long as my dick enters your asshole I have the right to cum. Get my point?
2026-04-16 19:00:12
You're fuckin CRAZY for that bud
2026-04-16 23:59:17
@All no holders:
2026-04-17 00:24:40
Cool -133 pnl bro, who are you rugging again? Yourself?
2026-04-17 00:29:16
You think these fucking No idiots understand that all the other markets already resolved to Yes? 🤣Even if you had a good argument, it's too late boys. They're not gonna resolve an earlier date to contradict a later one obviously right? They all are based on the exact same news.
2026-04-17 21:31:53
That's what he says, now watch what he does.
2026-04-18 08:37:23
You guys are retarded, 47c to 38c swing on trump saying its closed for negotiating leverage? You know when the negotiations are taking place right? Learn to predict, stop reacting.
2026-04-18 09:18:15
Thank you for that insightful analysis confucius.
2026-04-18 09:41:37
Irrational market.
2026-04-19 00:09:10
Didn't iran attempt to do just that by closing the strait themselves? They don't own the strait you know, no one does.
2026-04-19 21:53:15
I love that No holders can't read. People like them are the reason I profit on this website. Thank you based Notards.
2026-04-19 22:20:28
I love that No holders are rejoicing while all missing their chance to sell at any kind of profit 🤣 Poor fellas.
2026-04-20 05:20:11
READ THE RULES
2026-04-21 07:48:21
Not only did Iran arrive, but they arrived EARLY 🤣. Yall keep eating up the state propaganda thinking they weren't coming is just lol.
2026-04-21 08:05:22
Is this insiders? What is Apr 21st doing? Crazy underpriced.
2026-04-21 08:16:53
Read the indirect rule clause. If they negotiate ANYTHING (like a ceasefire extension, SoH opening/matter, or preconditions) then it will count as indirect negotiations under that rule.
2026-04-21 08:24:19
I'm just stating what is possible. Not what is likely. I think 18c is way underpriced. It's got at least 25% chance of happening or so.
2026-04-21 08:34:08
because he's not a retard
2026-04-21 08:34:45
bless your heart
2026-04-21 08:35:26
Oh shit Iran media said it? They have never lied once during this conflict! BUY NO BUY NO BUY NO
2026-04-21 08:52:34
What does that even mean lol? Trump lies too, but that doesn't mean you immediately believe the other biggest liar in the room. They objectively lied multiple time over the past week including about the entire prior ceasefire they denied talking about the whole time.
2026-04-21 10:56:00
I'm not a big fan of the government
2026-04-21 11:18:23
knees weak, eyes are heavy, vomit on my sweaty all ready... tom's sphagetti.
2026-04-22 02:52:31
about an hour + 5 min.
2026-04-22 02:52:58
brother you might have brain damage.
2026-04-22 04:06:38
Yall are really heistating because of Car lol? You think he's got some magic secret UMA scam locked and loaded? 🤣
2026-04-22 04:07:07
yes, but it'll still be in the 99.5c range
2026-04-22 04:44:29
for the gamblers that feel like burning money, just spend it on a slot machine at least you have a chance to win there. It's an announcement market boys, if it doesn't get announced, it doesn't exist. Polymarket has clarified situations exactly like this one multiple times this year already.
2026-04-22 04:46:27
here's an idea Car, instead of doing dumb shit like this, actually place good bets next time?
2026-04-22 04:46:44
Like just buy the side that's gonna win next time.
2026-04-22 04:47:24
I mean the price Y spiked to 95c and you still didn't sell my boy, wha'dar'we'doin man?
2026-04-22 05:08:56
yall got any more of them disputes
2026-04-22 05:32:57
None
2026-04-22 05:51:28
oh fuck oh fuck I HAVE TO FLIP NOW FUCK
2026-04-23 21:38:25
I just hope Yes is aware that if Hezbollah doesn't confirm, yall are fucked.
2026-04-23 21:52:59
On the last Israel x Hezbollah market, Hezbollah leaders anounced "conditional" acceptance of the ceasefire. If hezbollah leaders reject or give no statement on this ceasefire, it could very well go No.
2026-04-23 22:23:39
Google bloomberg article: trump-says-israel-and-lebanon-to-extend-ceasefire-by-three-weeks
"Netanyahu had insisted the conflict in Lebanon was separate from the ceasefire between Iran and the US and that fighting against Hezbollah would continue."
2026-04-26 03:50:34
He literally cried about it? There's pictures of him crying? This isn't framed as a joke either.
2026-04-26 03:51:55
The market doesn't even need further evidence beyond the announcement. It's an announcement market. He announced his girl is pregnant in total seriousness (he's not a jester after all). As long as he wasn't joking it counts. Where's the evidence he was joking?
2026-04-26 04:00:18
The market rules say nothing about "Evidence" just that the announcement should not be a joke and should be a serious announcement. What evidence is there he's joking? The underlying reality doesn't matter, he's probably lying, but this is an announcement market.
2026-04-26 07:20:24
You actually have 40k on No 😭 Brother No matter who is right or wrong on this, that is genuinely mentally deranged sizing.
2026-04-26 07:27:24
I'll do you one better than math, I'll do reading. Notice the resolution source is Clav in the rules? (the rules resolve the markets btw) So even though I agree with you, he is not a credible source, he is the sole source of truth on this market. He is definitionally credible by the rules of the market. So a credible statement (which is clearly defined as being not a joke, a serious statement made by him) will count. He's said multiple times he's serious and not joking on stream.
2026-04-26 07:31:56
To any N holders who sould cite Clav's statements as non-credible. Clav's statements are defined, by the market rules, as the sole source of truth. Definitionally his statements are credible by the rules. If he makes a serious, non-joking (aka non-jestermaxxed), statement about his woman's pregnancy status, that is a credible announcement. The rules don't mention hard evidence requirement or any source of truth outside of Clav's statements. You don't get to personally determine what is and isn't "credible" outside of the rule's definitions.
2026-04-26 08:31:29
This market is about a credible announcement. Whether she's actually pregnant or not is not written in the rules my boy. The annoucement is as credible as Clav can make an annoucement. Hell even if he posted the pregnancy test results, those aren't hard to fake.
2026-04-26 09:28:54
Well good thing that's not this market.
2026-04-28 09:38:26
Just an fyi, these markets all have precedent for the proof required before they resolve. Unless Ursula Von De-de-de is reported as having explicitly called trump or spoke in-person with him by multiple credible outlets, it will not resolve to Yes.
2026-04-29 12:49:20
AENews is both not a UMA whale (he's just a polymarket whale) and is not on the No side. Check top holders, he holds 35k Yes at bond price. Follow the money, not the words.
2026-04-29 12:51:06
Test doesn't magically make you infertile bud. People have kids while supplementing all the time. It lowers the odds, that's all.
2026-04-29 12:57:29
No side is very yappy for a reason. For the willfully ignorant, you'll get what comes to you, but I do feel bad for the people who seem unaware of what's going on. For those people: there were two disputes and two simultaneous UMA voting rounds to resolve those disputes. One round settled on P2 (Yes) and the other leaned P2 67% majority, but was a few % short of "consensus". This means a new voting round happens today and in the history of PM a roll vote (what this is called) has never gone against the prior majority unless PM intervenes. The real odds of this are around 1-2% at best. If you want to gamble a lottery ticket, save it for something else that's got a better price.
2026-04-29 20:39:07
@dxconnect may I humbly ask what the fuck is you're doing? 🤣
2026-04-29 20:41:58
Gotchya. Unfortunately you panic bought the wrong side my friend. A proposal is coming for Yes soon thanks to the Ursula clarificaion.
2026-05-02 18:16:49
I'd be angry too if I was as bad with money. Holy shit you suck, don't blame UMA lol.
2026-05-08 18:48:49
Russia just confirmed MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. Russia has agreed to US President Donald Trump's initiative to establish a ceasefire with Ukraine from May 9 to 11 and conduct a "thousand-for-thousand" prisoner exchange with Kyiv during this period, said Yuri Ushakov, aide to the Russian president.
"On the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, I confirm the acceptability for the Russian side of the initiative recently proposed by US President Donald Trump regarding a ceasefire for the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine," he told reporters.
2026-05-08 19:07:58
Russians just releasd this statement: "On behalf of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, I confirm the acceptability for the Russian side of the initiative just proposed by US President Donald Trump regarding a ceasefire for the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine.
An agreement on this matter was reached during our telephone contacts with the US Presidential Administration. US representatives, in turn, were in contact with Kyiv."
2026-05-09 04:54:48
ask for refunds for this shit shutting down the market during pre-clari trading fucked so many people, esp swing traders.
2026-05-09 04:55:39
Customer service is just AI bots anyway
2026-05-15 01:26:35
Free money for May 15 No side. Trump won't be in white house until 7-8pm, they still have lunch and it's a long flight. Even if he really wanted to bomb as soon as possible, there's preparations that take time to get in place and meetings that need to be had like last time.
2026-05-15 01:30:06
Subhuman IQ
2026-05-17 02:13:26
Why do polymarket users insist on fighting impossible battles against UMA and even polymarket's direct clarification. The delusion is unreal from these people.
2026-05-22 08:48:11
A final draft of a possible US-Iran agreement, mediated by Pakistan, is expected to be announced within hours, according to Al Arabiya sources.
Key terms include:
• Immediate, comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire on all fronts — land, sea, and air
• Mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure
• End to military operations and halt to media war
• Respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs
• Freedom of navigation guaranteed in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman
• Joint monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation and resolve disputes
• Negotiations on outstanding issues to begin within seven days
• Gradual lifting of US sanctions in exchange for Iranian compliance
• Agreement takes effect immediately upon official announcement by both sides
2026-05-22 11:54:30
You fellers seem mighty nervous. Doin a lotta yappin. I'm sure we'll just stay in cold war state for months and months right?
2026-05-22 11:55:50
Lol. You're in for a big suprise if this deal gets bilateral announced. It almost certainly includes statements to end the war and if it does, it goes Y. Don't believe me just watch.
2026-05-22 12:18:32
According to Al-Arabiya, Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir is now en route to Tehran, where he is expected to serve as a messenger between the United States and Iran.
2026-05-22 13:13:58
Notards bout to have a real stressful few days.
2026-05-22 13:55:47
GollumGecko wtf are you doing lmao. Bro is panicking.
2026-05-22 13:56:33
-$146 pnl. You love giving away free money I guess?
2026-05-23 18:28:22
"Is the peace in the room with us right now?" soundin' aah
2026-05-23 19:06:41
Shut up bitch
2026-05-23 19:06:56
Here your money goes
2026-05-23 19:09:28
No one cares bitch boy
2026-05-23 20:09:08
aekghas go home bro. You're a drunk nepobaby gambling with daddy's money.
2026-05-23 20:13:42
Bro tomorrow is gonna be amazing. I'm going to frame EB999999 and Aekghas's Ls and remind them whever they bet.
2026-05-23 20:42:33
Bud, you have no idea what the memorandum contains. It very likely may frame it as a end to hostilities without a time limit. If it's dependent upon negotiations that doesnt matter as long as it promises an indefinite halt to all hostilities.
2026-05-23 20:48:11
I'll be honest, I can understand HOLDING, but if you are BUYING No right now, you are genuinely a retarded individual.
2026-05-23 20:48:40
Unless you're swing trading, but even then, super risky swinging right now.
2026-05-23 20:48:48
they don't have to?
2026-05-23 21:09:22
booo paper hands boooooo
2026-05-24 03:14:50
Sure is a lot of yapping coming from the No side.
2026-05-24 03:29:04
And a bunch of reactive illiterate Yes holders panick selling over a Barrak article acting like the 60 day aspect is new lol. If it's framed as the war ending, naval pull out, and both sides agree to indefinitely stop hostilities it'll very likely go Y.
2026-05-24 04:13:39
Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.
2026-05-24 18:53:27
Sir you have a $5 position. How's everything going with minimum wage burger flipper job?
2026-05-24 20:43:20
Just so new users don't waste their money: The NOTAM issued on the 22nd will not cause this to go Yes. It was both rejected directly by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority and it was merely a change of a NOTAM that has ALREADY been in place since April. The only change being that they added another airport allowed to operate during the night. So not only has nothing changed since April, they actually open more airports with it. The only way this goes No is if a new notice goes out that actually closes MORE airports in a major sector of iran.
2026-05-24 20:44:22
The iranian aviation authority literally directly denied the NOTAM...
2026-05-24 20:48:01
This article is complete misinformation and outright false. A1010/26 does not issue any additional restrictions beyond what was imposed on April. The aviation authority has also denied that this NOTAM closes anything.
2026-05-25 01:58:21
My bad, I meant to say "the only way this goes Yes".
2026-05-25 17:43:37
Adrian sure is a greedy little bitch huh? Bro was dumping airspace (bond) at 85c yesterday now he's placing $15k market buys on N extension. Fuckin rich cunt just likes pressing buttons.
2026-05-25 21:00:13
You dumbfucks actually think those explosions were the US attacking? 🤣 My boys iran military officials literally warned there would be instances of explosions from donating munitions. They're both talking about agreeing on an imminent deal and you think they're jepordizing that?
2026-05-25 22:28:49
Bandar Abbas Intl. Airport was not hit and is completely fine.
Possibly an air defense location to the east of the city (in the same direction as the airport) was targeted.
-MES source
2026-05-25 22:30:35
You guys need to understand, the US is about to seal a deal, they will NOT admit to striking iran even if they did. They are the source of resolution or overwhelming consensus. A few OSInt accounts reporting shit or even Iran TV echoing it will not count.