Account Information
Name:
BigRabbit
Pseudonym:
Needy-Cenotaph
Created:
2025-06-11 20:36:52
Last Activity:
6 days ago
Tier:
Silver
X:
@BigRabbit_poly
profile-image-3030523-126643fe-c558-4fed-bd7a-d06c6c1ba31f.png
Total Profit
$119,837
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$140,194.97
Markets traded
2,170
Trades
2,170
Largest win
$56,494.65
Profile views
6,587
Join date
2025-06-11 20:36:52
All-time rank
1666
All-time PnL
$119,837.30
All-time volume
$25,725,847.40
All-time profit
$120,517.72
Lifetime volume
$25,725,847.40
PnL series latest
$120,517.73
PnL series start
$122,270.61
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$55,965.20
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | Yes | 57569.946 | $56,477.79 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 82083.2557 | $42,270.83 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 106615.9307 | $26,460.80 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 253388.7064 | $-23,449.74 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | Yes | 101465.8356 | $-15,919.29 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | 67100.1875 | $-13,224.91 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 25000.0007 | $0.87 | $0.87 | $21,837.50 | $-37.48 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 99999.7361 | $0.23 | $0.19 | $19,349.95 | $-4,096.58 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 24999.9864 | $0.39 | $0.64 | $15,874.99 | $6,100.02 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 104999.89 | $0.09 | $0.12 | $12,074.99 | $2,625.10 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | 75993.0338 | $0.13 | $0.13 | $9,841.10 | $-211.24 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | Yes | 57569.946 | $56,477.79 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 82083.2557 | $42,270.83 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 106615.9307 | $26,460.80 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | Yes | 29669.2582 | $17,976.69 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 32124.4383 | $17,244.81 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.11 | 2386.5 | $262.51 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.11 | 14.5 | $1.59 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | Yes | $0.11 | 155.12 | $17.06 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | Yes | $0.11 | 100 | $11.00 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | Yes | $0.11 | 314.9 | $34.64 |
Recent trades (2170)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes | $0.09 | 718.87 |
| 6 days ago | SELL | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | No | $0.14 | 5000 |
| 6 days ago | SELL | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | No | $0.26 | 10000 |
| 6 days ago | SELL | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | No | $0.06 | 10000 |
| 6 days ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | $0.20 | 25000 |
Comments
2025-06-20 15:27:47
You should add Fed Governor Waller as a candidate
2025-06-26 18:02:14
David Malpass should be a candidate
2025-07-22 23:25:40
Trump just announced Japan trade deal on Truth Social. It's done
2025-07-24 12:00:58
Source? Can't find anything about this
2025-07-24 12:21:29
Thank you for the free money
2025-07-29 13:35:54
Can't find any source, but this guy been buying Yes since yesterday. I'm intrigued
2025-07-29 14:57:12
Just noticed ISW map put the whole village in the gray zone yesterday. Gonna be tight but agreed, don't think there's enough time left.
2025-07-30 19:14:58
Good job bro you’re so smart
2025-07-31 18:49:45
Am I crazy or is the church nearly red already on the ISW map? The red zone literally stops a few meters short wtf
2025-08-01 12:40:14
gg ez free money
2025-08-01 19:29:21
Agreed!
2025-08-01 20:03:01
NEWS: Fed governor Adriana Kugler is resigning effective next Friday.
2025-08-01 20:03:25
WSJ Timiraos: Kugler's decision to leave the board about six months early gives Trump a sooner-than-expected opportunity to put someone on the Fed board, including the person who could succeed Powell as chair when his term ends.
2025-08-02 11:00:38
You understand it is still only August 2, right?
2025-08-05 13:44:35
Most likely, and vice-versa.
2025-08-07 14:31:29
Easy money
2025-08-08 17:44:59
LMAO
2025-08-08 17:45:16
Thanks for the liquidity
2025-08-08 17:46:41
This is probably the worst case of inefficient market I've ever seen. The church was literally a few meters from being red on the map and some of you guys were spending thousands on NO? Wtf
2025-08-08 17:48:03
You knew the rules before placing your bet
2025-08-08 17:49:31
You seem to be playing these Ukraine markets pretty well, wondering why your big NO position on Rodynske? Seems like it's gonna fall soon
2025-08-08 17:51:40
I would agree with you if the rules weren't crystal clear: the outcome is decided by the ISW map. The price rightfully skyrocketed at the beginning of the month when they painted red the DRG incursions and stopped just a few meters short of the church.
2025-08-08 17:52:25
Good point
2025-08-11 18:25:34
what happened to him
2025-08-11 19:17:54
There are much easier ways to make money than betting NO on Russia capturing Ukrainian cities during a breakthrough.
2025-08-15 17:59:19
Not much time left and things seem to have calmed down in the Siversk axis recently
2025-08-15 18:52:11
Holding shares in markets ending in 6+ months should generate returns.
2025-08-15 19:46:25
Their meeting literally just started, the press conference will be in a few hours
2025-08-19 12:25:36
EZ
2025-08-25 18:50:15
Jim BULLard
2025-08-27 00:44:51
Nah he's prob right about this one
2025-08-27 18:28:07
Nope. Simply said he'll abide by what the courts say.
2025-08-29 15:44:43
I believe in you King
2025-08-29 18:36:33
She's not voting
2025-08-29 19:36:40
JPow told me he'll ask her to resign by then, or at the very least to abstain from voting
2025-09-01 21:24:37
Am I missing something about Congo?
2025-09-02 15:06:07
Told you she’s not voting
2025-09-02 21:04:47
Isn't ISW the last mapper having Russians controlling Vilne? Everyone else has it under Ukrainian control, with Kucheriv Yar in the gray zone
2025-09-03 16:03:48
As usual, most of these will end up with NO
2025-09-03 16:10:28
Can't believe he said Congo lmao
2025-09-03 16:14:04
Yeah I missed it too
2025-09-03 16:16:29
Still came out ahead by $700, but I'm so bummed he found a way to ramble about Congo. Props to the person creating the market for it.
2025-09-03 16:18:05
Not sure, NO is still stelling for 15c. Maybe needs a recount.
2025-09-03 16:20:35
Yeah those are the two that killed me. NATO was just a bet that the press conference would be super short or outright cancelled, so I can't be too angry about that
2025-09-03 16:25:13
I counted 4 but I may have missed one.
2025-09-03 18:15:03
Why did all limit orders get cancelled?
2025-09-04 13:51:21
🚨 JUSTICE DEPARTMENT ISSUES SUBPOENAS AS PART OF PROBE INTO FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK -- WSJ
2025-09-04 13:58:46
@satoshiAncap you're on the right side of the trade but you should be less agressive, Sept 30 doesn't leave you much time
2025-09-05 20:22:19
CNBC: Mystery of former Federal Reserve Governor Kugler’s resignation deepens as real estate records raise new questions
2025-09-05 20:22:40
Guess what happened two days before her resignation? She abstained from voting at the July FOMC meeting.
2025-09-05 21:15:02
Did Trump just admit Hassett is his pick?
2025-09-05 21:40:29
Add Portland
2025-09-06 21:38:56
Please add Slovakia
2025-09-06 21:49:58
Zohran Mamdani
2025-09-08 15:35:38
U.S. SUPREME COURT ALLOWS TRUMP TO REMOVE DEMOCRATIC MEMBER OF FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION FOR NOW
2025-09-08 17:33:55
Mispriced markets. Polymarket users lean left and generally hate Trump. They bet on what they perceive is "right", not what is likely to happen.
2025-09-08 21:13:40
"Biden must be awake for this market to resolve to Yes" lmao
2025-09-09 14:37:30
Nothing ever happens?
2025-09-10 11:06:54
I’m really surprised by the overreaction here. This judge is her sorority sister, she was always going to grant the TRO. You understand the government will appeal this decision right? It’s going to go to the DC Circuit of Appeals, and then the Supreme Court’s shadow docket.
2025-09-10 18:33:54
Shadow docket, just like their ruling on firing of FTC’s Rebecca Slaughter
2025-09-11 03:10:34
Agree with the logic but 40 is not that many. I'm more comfortable with 50+ and 60+. He'll likely be pressed about why they're not cutting by 50bps, which will prompt his talk about inflation.
2025-09-11 12:40:10
Consensus was 0.3% but all the better and most credible forecasters (Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley) were all at 0.4%.
2025-09-11 18:06:04
Treasury Monthly Statement for August 2025 just came out. Tariffs are at 165.2 billions so far in FY 2025, with only one month left. September needs to come in at 35 billions for the 200bn bracket to be in the money. To give you an idea, the last three months (June, July, Aug) were at 26.6, 27.7 and 29.5 respectively. This market is severely mispriced.
2025-09-11 18:08:43
You guys are basically saying there is an 80% chance that the Treasury will collect 35bn in tariffs in September. This is basically what the bet is right now. We know the tally through 11 months is at 165.2bn. [link removed]
2025-09-11 18:09:53
Friendly reminder that the U.S. government Fiscal Year 2025 goes from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025.
2025-09-11 21:10:19
Median is a bond, there’s an SEP
2025-09-11 21:14:51
My out-of-consensus belief is that Cook blew it when she included Powell and the whole Federal Reserve Board in her lawsuit. Powell doesn’t want her there on Tuesday/Wednesday. He’s gonna be praying that the TRO gets overturned
2025-09-12 10:35:26
You shouldn’t have told them
2025-09-12 12:15:21
So... it's going to the Supreme Court? As expected since the second Trump fired Cook. Those lower court rulings don't matter. Either Cook or Trump would appeal until it reached the Supreme Court. This bet is "Will the Supreme Court uphold Trump's firing of Lisa Cook before..."
2025-09-12 12:23:20
My point is that if the lower district court would have sided with Trump, Cook would have appealed to the circuit of appeals and we would be in the exact same position right now. I don't think a ruling one side or the other in the lower district courts will affect the Supreme Court ruling.
2025-09-12 12:54:46
Btw what's your source for this. Haven't found anything
2025-09-12 13:26:58
Thanks bud. GPT-5 suggests Katsas (Trump) and Garcia (Biden) are widely expected to vote along party lines. Childs (Biden) is a moderate and pragmatic judge with bipartisan support and will be the swing vote.
2025-09-12 13:38:43
Trump fired Lisa Cook. Cook sued Trump and asked for a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) allowing her to stay. Judge Jia Cobb from a DC district court granted the TRO, meaning Cook is allowed to stay. However, Trump appealed the decision in front of the DC Circuit of Appeals and asked for a ruling by Monday Sept 15. If the Circuit of Appeals rules in favor of Trump, Cook will not be allowed to vote on Sept 17.
2025-09-12 13:40:01
On top of that, in my humble opinion, letting Cook vote can only backfire against the Fed. If later this year the Supreme Court rules that Trump had the right to fire Cook, it effectively means someone that was no longer a Fed Governor was allowed to vote at an FOMC meeting. This can only gives Trump more ammunitions against the Fed.
2025-09-12 13:41:13
However, Cook's lawyers were smart. In their lawsuit, they not only sue Trump, they also sue Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board, threatening them against preventing Cook from voting.
2025-09-12 13:45:23
My personal read is that this was an overreach. By suing Powell and the Federal Reserve Board, she's effectively admitting that if it were up to Powell, he'd ask her to abstain from voting. Which would be the right decision anyway, it's not like her vote is going to change the outcome of the meeting. Even in the corporate world, if there were allegations against an executive, they'd probably take a temporary leave of absence during the investigation. They wouldn't be voting and take an active role in high-stakes decision-making. They'd keep a low-profile and wait for the outcome. This is what Cook should have done.
2025-09-12 13:49:14
Last part of this rant: putting it all together. 1) DC Circuit of Appeal could rule against Cook on Monday night and effectively end her chances of voting. Let's say this has 25% chance of happening. 2) Let's say she's allowed to vote by the courts. Powell and the other Governors could still try to convince her to abstain from voting. They're unlikely to succeed, but it's not impossible. Let's say 10% odds. 3) Last FOMC meeting in July, Gov Kugler abstained from voting. It wouldn't be unprecedented. Bottom line: This market is mispriced. Fair Yes price should be 60-75c.
2025-09-12 15:18:45
Damn just noticed she's Black. There's no way she votes against Cook.
2025-09-12 19:34:49
Welcome back Satoshi
2025-09-12 19:40:26
Did BuckMySalls fatfinger the buy button? Why would you move the market like that lmao
2025-09-12 20:57:19
Just looked at your profile and three months after joining you had the exact same PNL that I have right now.
2025-09-12 20:57:44
can't go tits up
2025-09-12 21:00:43
You're right I should probably calm down a little lmao
2025-09-12 21:02:01
Some of my good plays were on Yablunivka and Pokrovsk, got carried away and lost a bunch of money because Russia decided to jack off for the whole month of August.
2025-09-13 01:16:11
None just a whale deciding to buy a shitload
2025-09-13 14:03:05
Just a warning, there are two different Novopavlivka markets ending on October 31. These are two different cities. Look at the map carefully.
2025-09-13 14:04:06
How bored are you to comment in markets you don't even trade
2025-09-13 14:05:59
this looks like a shitshow
2025-09-13 14:08:27
Guys remember that voters can dissent if they want a larger cut. Waller, Bowman and Miran (if confirmed by Senate on Monday) are all likely to dissent and ask for a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. I'm also loading up on cheap 4+ shares in the very unlikely event another voter dissents because they don't think a rate cut is warranted at all (Schmid or Musalem).
2025-09-13 14:09:32
Two dissents may also be worth it for a sprinkle. The Senate could fail to confirm Miran on Monday, or Waller/Bowman could have a change of heart and vote for 25bps. You never know.
2025-09-14 14:58:55
Best plot twist ever
2025-09-14 14:59:24
Yeah that's not good. But Circuit of Appeals doesn't matter, ultimately the only thing that matters is the Supreme Court
2025-09-15 11:06:16
No idea why some of you morons bring her race into this
2025-09-15 20:09:21
Strike against Lebanon. Two to go
2025-09-16 14:12:40
First step done: Stephen Miran was confirmed yesterday and will vote tomorrow.
2025-09-16 18:23:20
ISW map updated. Steady Russian advances east of Kostyantynivka.
2025-09-17 15:09:02
Chris Waller, Michelle Bowman and Stephen Miran are all possible dissents.
2025-09-17 19:07:53
At least I get a win today lmao
2025-09-19 11:00:28
real
2025-09-19 20:17:26
you're my favorite user on this website
2025-09-20 19:27:27
Damn you guys are too quick
2025-09-20 19:45:55
Geolocated
2025-09-20 19:47:47
Geolocated footage just showed Russia advancing inside Pokrovsk and capturing Novopavlivka. Real Oct 31 price is way above 50
2025-09-20 19:52:44
New ISW update. Expansion of the orange zone around Siversk.
2025-09-20 20:19:24
Too lazy
2025-09-20 22:08:16
Why aren’t you?
2025-09-21 09:22:16
[link removed]
2025-09-22 15:36:30
LOL
2025-09-22 15:38:51
ok I admit that whole thing was really funny, you almost got me
2025-09-22 15:39:46
Do you spend the whole day refreshing the ISW map or what. Am I the only one here with an actual job during the day lmao
2025-09-22 15:41:59
lmao
2025-09-22 15:43:26
I've yet to fully grasp how fucking retarded the ISW map is. The day of the geolocated footage they dismiss it and don't even paint the intersection red, and then one day later without any new info they decide to paint the whole thing red. Whaterver I'm not complaining
2025-09-22 16:09:43
Agreed
2025-09-22 17:17:22
Yeah I was on the right side of that trade thankfully, but it was really weird. They had never painted red following DRG activity until that day.
2025-09-22 18:27:42
Satoshi redeption arc starts now. If only he'd been accumulating Lisa Cook out by Dec 31 instead of Sep 30...
2025-09-23 14:06:31
Lula's speech is taking forever
2025-09-23 14:34:21
America count?
2025-09-23 14:34:45
GOAT yapper
2025-09-23 14:43:59
Damn props to Tyler, big balls to put 21k on that lmao
2025-09-23 14:44:14
Sadly he said "obliterating"
2025-09-23 14:44:57
he's in full-on rambling mode right now so you never know, but yeah when he said "President Putin" instead of "President Vladimir Putin" the odds tanked
2025-09-23 14:46:33
This is his best speech of the year. Just pure rambling
2025-09-23 18:52:13
ISW map just updated. Nelipivka and southern tip of Pleschiivka painted red. Russians are picking up the pace in this direction recently.
2025-09-24 01:47:35
Need Oct 31 market
2025-09-24 17:37:03
Another day, another area freshly painted red around Siversk on the ISW map
2025-09-25 14:05:49
Why did you change your mind?
2025-09-25 14:08:07
Lmao the next Treasury Statement is on October 10, why are the prices moving so much all of a sudden? There's been zero new data for a while
2025-09-25 17:21:39
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India in December 2025, as confirmed by the Kremlin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to visit India in the near future, though the exact dates are still being finalized.
2025-09-25 17:23:17
Recent statements: Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine counts on India's contribution to ending the war with Russia, viewing India's role as crucial in fostering a peaceful resolution.
2025-09-25 17:25:39
Bottom line: both Zelenskyy and Putin are expected to visit India later this year. India maintains good relations with both countries, and Zelenskyy has mentioned India multiple times recently when talking about a potential path towards peace. India is severely mispriced.
2025-09-25 18:06:56
agreed
2025-09-25 21:47:25
Damn just casually dropping 100k on NO
2025-09-26 00:58:50
Isn't that the plot of an episode of Parks & Rec? lmao
2025-09-26 16:15:14
GDPnow up to 3.9%. You guys should be buying more 3.5%
2025-09-26 20:07:06
The Justice Department has issued its response to Cook's brief. Look at Nick Timiraos on X
2025-09-26 22:12:20
Thoughts about this? [link removed]
2025-09-26 22:12:28
Sep 30 is too short
2025-09-26 22:15:42
So could the stay be granted by Roberts on Monday or Tuesday?
2025-09-26 23:40:18
You’re probably right
2025-09-27 13:43:26
Monday at the earliest my friend, the Supreme Court won't rule during the weekend lol
2025-09-28 00:00:20
I don't understand why nobody's taking you seriously. The $82.2b figure for 2024 obviously uses gross collections.
2025-09-28 00:03:44
YoBart what's your thesis for continuing to buy this?
2025-09-28 10:44:36
No, the $82.2 was found in the Financial Report as well. The rules are pretty clear, the very first sentence mentions the $82.2 figure, and the next part mentions “the value of customs duties collected”.
2025-09-28 10:48:19
Why are you so confident the market resolves according to net receipts and not gross? The $82.2 figure quoted in the rules is the gross collections from FY 2024. Why wouldn’t this market resolves according according to gross collections as well?
2025-09-28 10:51:27
I mean, I’ll do so after you tell me why you think the market will resolves according using net receipts.
2025-09-28 10:52:27
I’m pretty bummed because a few weeks ago I thought it resolved using net receipts and bought a shit ton of 100-200, but sold it all once I read the rules carefully. Shouldve kept it lol
2025-09-28 12:54:17
A Monday or Tuesday ruling isn’t THAT far-fetched considering Cook filed her response on the 25th and the DoJ on the 26th. September 29 or 30 is still in play.
2025-09-28 15:12:36
But why would you look at the $76.4 net figure if the very first sentence of the rules uses the gross figure? Both the net and gross figures are part of the Financial Report. If you want to get even more pedantic, the first sentence of the 2nd paragraph of the rules says "the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025". Read that carefully. That's exactly what gross receipts are: the value of duties collected during a certain period, even if some of them pertained to past periods.
2025-09-28 18:11:12
I mean, it’s the same source. The gross figure is also part of the Financial Report.
2025-09-28 22:31:40
Why aren’t they shooting them down they’re driving me crazy lmao
2025-09-29 15:02:32
The Siversk front is moving quickly. New large red zone added on the map today, Russians captured Vyimka and advanced toward the southern outskirts of Siversk.
2025-09-29 15:35:35
In satoshi I trust
2025-09-29 16:37:34
Domer just bought 17k shares in a single block.
2025-09-29 16:37:43
In satoshi I trust
2025-09-29 18:34:06
Alright what do you guys think so far. He does look very tired
2025-09-29 18:38:46
Hmm Netanyahu has already agreed. Just need Hamas to agree before tomorrow midnight. Not sure why this is crashing
2025-09-29 19:33:07
Yeah man I don't get it...
2025-09-29 20:10:42
Al-Jazeera citing a diplomatic source: Qatar and Egypt passed on the White House plan to end the war in Gaza to the Hamas negotiating delegation. Hamas promised the mediators to study the proposal responsibly.
2025-09-30 14:25:32
I have no idea how you sleep at night lmao
2025-09-30 18:45:32
The process to issue a ruling on an emergency stay is not very long and complicated. I'm extremely confident they'll rule this week, and it could technically still come out today. But increasingly unlikely obviously lol
2025-09-30 18:55:43
Most likely not, that's why I'm buying at 0.5c
2025-09-30 19:02:27
Is the drop in No Change because of the shutdown?
2025-09-30 19:27:10
ISW orange zone now covers the train station
2025-10-02 15:50:06
Is that a brand new red area I see around Siversk on the ISW map?
2025-10-03 13:27:38
Close is Nov 7, unless the report is released before that.
2025-10-03 19:53:33
No idea why the price is coming back down. Honestly, this reads much more positively than I expected. Trump has also made it clear he's not here to negotiate for months. He wants his Nobel Peace Prize, and this gets announced next week. He's applying maximum pressure (through Qatar, Egypt and Turkey) to close this deal as soon as possible.
2025-10-03 20:00:11
He's still long 62k shares. It's normal to trim your exposure after a price increase
2025-10-03 20:25:57
BBC lost all credibility when it comes to the Middle East
2025-10-04 01:26:03
Satoshi was right, just a bit early
2025-10-04 13:04:38
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
2025-10-04 14:44:37
How many days in a row have red zones been added to the Siversk front?
2025-10-04 18:31:35
This is what’s gonna happen with yours if you keep these worthless NO shares
2025-10-04 18:59:22
denizz can you keep placing huge market sell orders, I wanna buy more cheap shares
2025-10-06 20:38:29
Trump still sounds very optimistic. He's committed way too much for the deal to fall apart.
2025-10-06 20:39:04
Yeah that's a very fair point
2025-10-06 20:45:01
Bro you know enough about Russia and Putin to know the Alaska meeting was extremely unserious, while what's going on right now with Hamas is serious. Putin was basically trolling the US, Hamas is trying to survive.
2025-10-06 21:19:36
Bro for your mental health’s sake stay away from the comments. Most people are just trying to manipulate one way or another.
2025-10-06 21:49:25
Absolutely nothing. Just a bunch of traders manipulating price up and down.
2025-10-06 22:46:58
The first round of Gaza talks between Hamas and mediators have ended in Egypt “amid a positive atmosphere” according to Al-Qahera News.
2025-10-06 22:58:34
Tomorrow
2025-10-06 23:06:51
Literally everyone I see selling large amounts are selling at a loss. Were you really expecting the deal to be signed four hours after the start of the negotiations?
2025-10-07 11:07:45
I'm not short-term trader. I truly believe a ceasefire agreement will be agreed upon before Oct 10. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But random price variations because people come in and out constantly don't really bother me.
2025-10-07 17:40:17
Opposite, it was a fake dump
2025-10-07 17:40:50
Do we know if bans are permanent or could he be back someday?
2025-10-07 21:30:35
Doesn't matter for this market
2025-10-08 10:36:23
Learn 2 read
2025-10-08 15:44:36
Some people in this chat are going to look very dumb very soon
2025-10-08 17:30:53
Knowing some yes holders sold at like 13c this morning is frying me
2025-10-08 17:35:05
In 48h my P&L will be higher than yours
2025-10-08 18:28:42
He’s very good at it. Doesn’t change the fact you’re on the wrong side of thid trade
2025-10-08 18:29:08
Dec 31 is safer than a US Treasury bond lol
2025-10-08 18:31:55
Dec 31 NO holders are letting their priors cloud their judgement. Momentum has clearly shifted on the Siversk front, there are new advanced nearly everyday. The city is at risk of getting encircled.
2025-10-08 21:33:52
I am
2025-10-08 21:34:23
Good job bro
2025-10-08 21:35:28
Seems like I was right
2025-10-08 21:36:29
Peasant gonna be a peasant in real life too
2025-10-08 22:01:49
I hope every moron calling YES holders all kinds of names will do some introspection tonight.
2025-10-08 22:33:39
They really should restrict how many comments you can leave on the same post. At the very least a max per hour or something.
2025-10-08 22:39:27
Some people just like to be contrarian
2025-10-09 21:02:17
From the guy unironically using DeepState lol
2025-10-10 16:36:24
Isn't the red zone on the ISW map just few meters away from the train station?
2025-10-10 17:37:11
Look again lmao
2025-10-11 18:36:50
any rationale behind your switch?
2025-10-12 22:36:29
Regards
2025-10-13 22:06:20
The AFU will retreat from Siversk before the end of the year. Russians are already inside Dronivka and in Yampil’s center. What do you think happens next
2025-10-14 14:09:17
From what I'm reading, Western sources are only quoting Palestinian sources when they write "drone strike". There's been no outside confirmation. I bought my NO shares before all of this happened, I'll probably sit tight and see what happens.
2025-10-14 16:47:05
Damn he made it a point not to say the word "bitcoin"
2025-10-14 16:47:13
right? damn
2025-10-14 16:49:19
Can't believe someone filled my 1k order on AI at 5c lol
2025-10-14 18:02:34
How do disputes work?
2025-10-14 21:54:48
😂😂😂
2025-10-15 18:35:26
Love the way you think
2025-10-16 00:48:14
The Trump admin is getting the CPI report published amidst the shutdown because they need it for cost of living adjustments of Social Security and for TIPS. It's not a conspiracy.
2025-10-17 16:46:14
New market idea: "Will amused85 sell his NO shares by..."
2025-10-17 17:32:44
lmao stream gone?
2025-10-17 18:02:50
He said Eight Wars
2025-10-17 18:03:54
Percent+ just hit
2025-10-17 18:13:39
I think you got it
2025-10-17 18:13:51
He said it later
2025-10-17 18:19:46
I count 8
2025-10-20 17:22:54
amused85 is not amused right now
2025-10-20 17:34:41
shhhh
2025-10-20 19:01:41
Are you not entertained?
2025-10-20 19:21:38
can i ask which one?
2025-10-21 01:50:34
Disgusting way to talk about human beings wtf
2025-10-21 12:06:25
"Geolocated footage published on October 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in eastern Pokrovsk and along a railroad in central Pokrovsk after what ISW assesses were Russian infiltration missions.[77] ISW assesses that these infiltration missions did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time."
2025-10-21 12:07:26
This is the main risk with these markets. ISW, especially recently, has refused to mark new red areas in main Ukrainian cities, even with geolocated footage from reputable sources.
2025-10-21 12:07:47
The same was done with eastern Myrnohrad.
2025-10-21 12:08:18
This is a drastic change from when they painted central Pokrovsk red back in August because a few DRGs were spotted there.
2025-10-21 12:16:52
No, look at the map again, there are two types of red. There is the dotted red line, which is Assessed Russian Advance, and the full red line, which is Assessed Russian Control. That's how they explained why they painted central Pokrovsk back in August.
2025-10-21 12:18:03
Geolocated footage from credible sources, but without 100% certain consolidation, used to be red dotted line as recently as a few months ago.
2025-10-21 18:36:34
Don't waste your time arguing with nafotards
2025-10-21 20:53:02
The old map is still available here: [link removed]
2025-10-21 20:57:35
It's really hard to understand wtf ISW is doing recently. They just painted red most of Mala Tokmachka but they're not budging in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and Kupyansk despite proven geolocated footage. Very weird
2025-10-21 20:58:21
There's no way the proof of capture of Mala Tokmachka is more credible than the numerous footage of Russians inside Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.
2025-10-23 02:03:24
I love VJ Edjecombe
2025-10-24 11:12:52
Agreed, the change has been very noticeable. They're losing all credibility. I think 9 out of the last 10 geolocated footage they said the same "after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration event. ISW assesses that this event did not advance the forward edge of the battle area".
2025-10-24 11:13:21
"...after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration event. ISW assesses that this event did not advance the forward edge of the battle area"
2025-10-24 11:14:09
I swear to god they write this shit after 9 out of 10 geolocations now, this is getting ridiculous.
2025-10-24 15:42:04
LMAO
2025-10-24 15:43:36
What's particularly hilarious is that no new geolocated footage came out today of Russian forces at the railway station. The only footage that just came out was West of the required location. They just randomly decided to paint it red right now lol
2025-10-24 15:57:31
100%
2025-10-24 16:16:12
Yeah exactly, the published footage was north of the railway and west of the station.
2025-10-24 16:20:31
Listen to the Frenchie guys
2025-10-24 16:25:43
Fair price of that would be 80+
2025-10-24 16:50:24
Lmao you're so incapable of admitting you were wrong that you'd rather believe ISW insiders are trading these markets. Insider action is extremely obvious (Nobel Peace Prize, Binance guy getting pardoned) and anyone with a brain can see there's no insider betting in these Ukraine markets.
2025-10-24 16:52:48
Why didn't you make this Dec 31 at least
2025-10-24 16:53:23
Even Dec 31 would be unlikely
2025-10-24 17:37:31
ISW doesn't rely on Russian mappers. They rely on geolocated footage showing Russian/Ukrainian forces getting hit. If Russians are getting hit by Ukrainians north of the railway and around the train station, ISW will assess that it means Russians controlled that area.
2025-10-24 17:38:57
At first, they deemed the first few geolocated videos as "infiltrations". But over the last week, we've had no less than 7 different instances of Russian forces getting hit well beyond the red areas on the map. Today, they finally decided to stop categorizing these as "infiltrations" and they painted it red. It was bound to happen eventually.
2025-10-24 18:10:41
Dec NO holders literally flushing money down the toilet
2025-10-24 18:49:15
lol what a day
2025-10-27 15:42:21
It's only priced that way because Joe Biden put a 50k shares wall at 67c.
2025-10-28 12:22:39
Joe Biden please come back
2025-10-28 12:22:53
I wanna buy 5k more shares at 60c
2025-10-28 12:32:55
This fucking sucks
2025-10-30 11:43:45
The intersection is already captured, now the question is whether geolocated footage will come out in time. Oct 31 is a lotto, Nov 30 is a bond.
2025-10-30 21:48:09
About Nov 30? Absolutely. The combat is now in the southwestern part of Yampil. We’re just waiting for footage of Russians at the city centre. Unlikely to come out in time for Oct 31 though
2025-10-30 22:58:08
What now buddy? Is that -11k I see in your account? lmfao
2025-10-30 22:59:30
Nope it doesn't
2025-10-30 23:53:08
Where are the bozos that used to laugh at me every time I shared ISW updates about the Siversk outskirts? The city's upcoming encirclement has been obvious for months.
2025-10-30 23:54:10
November was literally Russia's best month last year. And they don't rely on mechanized assaults as much as they used to. Ukraine is against the clock in the Siversk sector, not Russia.
2025-10-30 23:55:45
This really does feel like free money
2025-10-31 01:01:51
Yeah I know, but the Russians are already extremely close to the southern outskirts, just north of Ivanivka and Filya. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets resolves within a week.
2025-10-31 12:03:41
Can't believe the Russians never managed to gain a foothold inside the city after four large mechanized assaults. Market should've been on Volodymyrivka I guess
2025-10-31 12:07:02
This city has been such a fucking pain in the ass
2025-10-31 12:18:24
I think for these markets what is considered is the grey polygon named "Siversk" on the ISW map, not necessarily the city's administrative boundaries in real life.
2025-10-31 12:18:44
It's not explicitly mentioned though. I hate it when rules are vague.
2025-10-31 12:29:14
I really can't believe I missed my opportunity to buy 10k shares from Joe Biden when I had the chance.
2025-10-31 13:34:48
Llamaloco comeback story starts now
2025-10-31 14:57:34
Yeah I'm not being sarcastic
2025-10-31 16:11:57
Looks like the Iran playbook so far but what do I know
2025-10-31 16:12:08
😁
2025-10-31 18:11:27
The Oct 31 price fluctuations are wild man
2025-10-31 19:40:56
He was selling at 67c. Deepstate (lol) shows the Russians just a few streets from the required intersection already.
2025-10-31 19:41:08
This is going to get resolved within 2 weeks
2025-10-31 20:13:42
this is crazy
2025-10-31 20:14:54
This is happening tonight
2025-10-31 20:42:38
Why are they going to such lengths to deny the strikes are imminent? Rubio really didn’t have to tweet that. He deliberately brought more attention to the Herald article lol
2025-10-31 20:49:14
To be clear: Oct 31 is a lotto ticket, I agree. But the strikes are happening this year.
2025-11-02 13:11:33
A lot of games are missing spreads
2025-11-02 17:46:17
Tf are you talking about
2025-11-02 17:46:57
I swear I didnt know there were so many schizos among us until I started reading the Polymarket comments section
2025-11-02 20:22:45
This is Luka’s year
2025-11-03 18:38:34
Why would you trust Deepstate when the resolution criteria is the ISW map? You realize a lot of areas currently marked red on ISW are not even in the grey zone on Deepstate?
2025-11-04 14:26:56
Add Quentin Grimes
2025-11-04 18:34:37
It's clear ISW changed their painting criteria once again. Back in October, all geolocations were deemed "infiltrations" and new red areas were once every 4-5 days. Now we're having multiple new red areas everyday. At this rate, I don't see how the city lasts until Nov 30.
2025-11-05 00:02:12
No idea what’s behind this sudden move nobody has a clue
2025-11-05 00:49:22
Oh yeah I'm sure a lot of Staten Island voters got swayed by Elon Musk's endorsement...
2025-11-09 15:17:35
We've gotta stop with the insider trading talk regarding this market. There is no insider trading, unless your name is Donald Trump. The decision is up to him. That's it.
2025-11-11 18:12:50
Watch out for fireworks when Mlemnonny123 starts selling
2025-11-11 19:56:48
There's no insider trading in this market. The only insider is Trump.
2025-11-13 17:24:16
Mlemnonny123 you can still sell at a profit
2025-11-13 17:27:32
but maybe not for long
2025-11-13 18:29:54
very soon
2025-11-14 02:55:28
This is my biggest fear. On paper, everything points toward an imminent strike, but Pete is dumber than a rock.
2025-11-16 03:08:58
LMAO WTF
2025-11-16 03:09:37
Yeah only retards like myself had any Nov 15 😂
2025-11-16 03:17:39
I dont understand why Nov 15 wouldnt resolve yes. It’s still Nov 15 and the intersection has been painted red. What is there to discuss?
2025-11-16 04:29:02
Every bet I lose is a scam. Every bet I win I had an edge.
2025-11-16 04:32:23
Yeah I think everyone familiar with Ukraine markets knows I’m not an insider. I bought these Nov 15 shares two weeks ago, I had no idea they would paint the intersection red a few hours before the deadline lol
2025-11-17 16:54:02
get ready for Institute of Study of Cope to paint it as an infiltration
2025-11-17 17:01:20
lmao look at the map
2025-11-17 17:03:16
Something has changed with ISW recently. I think we should be starting to think about alternatives for Ukraine markets
2025-11-17 17:55:52
NO holders should be aware that gopfan2 doesn’t helplessly watch his positions go to zero. He’s gonna start selling soon
2025-11-17 20:02:23
this is getting ridiculous
2025-11-17 20:03:22
ISW did literally the dumbest thing they could have done. They painted an infiltration square in the middle of the city with nothing around it. I'm starting to think they're trolling us
2025-11-17 20:55:59
Yeah this is the rare infiltration assessment that I actually agree with. Btw don,t know if you've noticed, but they did the same teleportation square with Dvorichanske in northern Kharkiv oblast, so it looks like it might be something they start regularly doing lol
2025-11-18 22:28:10
Seems like I was right
2025-11-18 22:30:13
This market was mispriced for so long. Literally free money for anyone with functioning eyes looking at how the Russian army was slowly and methodically encircling the city and cutting access to all supply lines.
2025-11-18 22:33:44
Moral of the story: don’t get in a position because a few whales are in it too. gopfan and buckmysalls were both wrong about this.
2025-11-18 23:45:41
you know they'll drag this on for as long as possible
2025-11-20 16:09:33
the latest square is hilarious
2025-11-20 16:45:12
I'm debating pulling out of all Ukraine markets altogether
2025-11-21 01:13:25
Doesn’t mean anything. You could have said the same about the Hamas ceasefire markets and it still ended up happening.
2025-11-21 02:03:16
You think you’re a genius because you’re up $15?
2025-11-21 13:55:06
Yes the war is over. All advances are merely infiltrations now. No need for a ceasefire
2025-11-21 14:10:06
if ISW marks this as an infiltration I'm selling all my Ukraine markets positions
2025-11-21 14:17:53
unrelated but you've got the best name on this website
2025-11-21 16:18:34
Are you guys really complaining that they marked it red? You have geolocated footage of Russians waving flags all across the fucking town, what are you complaining about?
2025-11-21 16:18:45
Top 10 schizo on this website
2025-11-21 16:19:26
Nice I don't have to sell
2025-11-21 16:27:50
Yeah the Yampil decision is ridiculous. But you never know, the day's not over, they might still change it. They might be more reticent about Yampil since the AFU counterattacked there not too long ago, and that even according to pro-RU channels it's still too early to say the village has been liberated. Combing operations are still going on.
2025-11-21 16:28:27
Still, with the geolocated flag demonstrations we have in Yampil right now, the required intersection should definitely be marked red.
2025-11-21 16:28:42
That I agree with
2025-11-21 16:29:20
Agreed, they should mark the Yampil intersection in red as well.
2025-11-21 16:37:23
So do we have to wait to propose or can we do it now? Have the rules changed?
2025-11-21 17:32:11
Seems like I can't, there's a new "whitelist" which I'm not a part of
2025-11-21 22:01:23
The ISW map is finalize for November 21, 2025. Says so on their website. Someone should propose
2025-11-22 22:49:32
Dec 31 NO holders, how do you sleep at night? Knowing a single tiny strike on a shack in the middle of the jungle makes you instantly lose thousands of dollars?
2025-11-23 19:53:35
The whole war has slowed to a crawl? What war are you watching?
2025-11-23 19:54:44
I love taking money from people like you. Unfortunately you only bet $30 so I can't take much
2025-11-24 01:07:54
Nothing ever happens right? Russia never invaded Ukraine. Israel never launched air strikes on Qatar. The US never struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump never negociated a ceasefire plan between Hamas and Israel. No, no. Nothing ever happens.
2025-11-24 01:34:05
“Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian Armed Forces seized Pokrovsk.”
2025-11-24 01:35:29
This is how this market is going to get resolved. Not with geolocations (ISW has already ignored dozens) but with vague claims from a pro-Ukrainian source admitting that the city has fallen. Following these claims they’ll paint the whole city red. This could happen literally anytime without any correlation with what’s actually happening on the battlefield.
2025-11-24 02:17:16
Read my reply to my own comment. He hasnt sais that, Im just anticipating it.
2025-11-24 17:14:47
I'm on the right side of the trade but I agree, what a clownshow. I think the map should have been painted red days ago when footage came out that Russians were there. But for them to ignore the footage and then paint it red days later is ridiculous.
2025-11-24 17:15:38
The only recent footage I can find is from yesterday, but it showed Russians in the southern part of the town, not over the required intersection.
2025-11-24 17:18:48
Agreed. People here only look at the city, with no regards for logistics. This is the only explanation why Siversk and Lyman Dec 31 are still so cheap.
2025-11-24 17:38:37
this is the largest paint job I've seen in a while lmao
2025-11-24 17:38:52
they just painted two months worth of geolocations
2025-11-24 17:53:43
Nothing ever happens right guys
2025-11-24 17:53:58
Trump would never bomb Iran, not in a million years
2025-11-24 23:28:51
Information warfare
2025-11-24 23:50:31
You got me. I’m actually Diosdado’s autistic nephew
2025-11-25 03:06:12
Guys go look at the map. ISW randomly decided to paint two months worth of geolocations in the Pokrovske and Novopavlivka directions today. The same could happen with Pokrovsk literally anytime.
2025-11-25 03:07:56
If people are too lazy to read the reply I posted just below my comment, it's their problem.
2025-11-25 03:11:20
No idea what got intom them today, they've become so unpredictable.
2025-11-25 18:01:03
Why did all limit orders get canceled?
2025-11-25 18:21:15
Great clarification.
2025-11-26 19:40:39
Lyman and Siversk next
2025-11-27 19:02:33
Agreed. I can’t think of a worst crime than betting on when an online map will get updated.
2025-11-28 13:34:29
🚨Journalist David Placer (@dplacer) claims that the call between Trump and Maduro has already taken place. The next phase will be attacks on the Cartel of the Suns in Venezuelan territory.
2025-11-28 13:36:01
Alleged Venezuelan insider Jean Miguel also claims the call between Trump and Maduro has already taken place.
2025-11-28 19:40:28
👊
2025-11-28 19:41:41
Axios is not a reliable source. It’s just a mouthpiece of the Trump admin. The call obviously went very badly, I’m not surprised the admin tried to lie about it.
2025-11-30 14:23:44
Very very very slim chances of getting painted red today following Kostyantyn Mashovets' comments.
2025-11-30 14:24:32
He basically said Russians are operating on the eastern bank of the Kazenny Torets River, accumulating infrantry in Shakhovo but unable to break through the northeast. This would imply control over the required intersection.
2025-12-01 14:53:16
This is buy signal
2025-12-02 19:43:35
It's Joever
2025-12-02 20:13:41
I don't like Vance but he does have a functioning brain. He knows Hassett would be a disaster. Bessent knows it too.
2025-12-04 16:19:50
The November Employment Situation report will be published on December 16. The BLS updated their release schedule.
2025-12-04 16:19:53
[link removed]
2025-12-05 19:18:23
agreed
2025-12-05 20:15:20
They were never going to paint the train station today... but this latest update is pretty huge nonetheless.
2025-12-05 20:36:54
Huge paint job today. Btw, the train station is on the eastern side of the Bakhmutovka river. In a matter of days, the AFU will retreat and cross the river.
2025-12-09 16:20:49
Not convinced we see that many dissents. We'll see.
2025-12-09 23:30:30
certainly looks like it so far lmao
2025-12-10 17:53:48
Possibly. I still like the r/r
2025-12-10 20:22:46
Inflation count?
2025-12-10 20:25:18
Yes he did
2025-12-12 22:03:18
This is so chaotic lmao. I love it
2025-12-13 01:02:39
Yeah the only thing justifying the current price is potential ISW shenanigans
2025-12-16 16:59:18
ISW still hasn't integrated yesterday's geolocations to their map, not even as infiltrations. Just completely ignored them.
2025-12-18 01:31:06
no life
2025-12-18 02:15:16
I heard him say "peace in the middle east" wtf
2025-12-18 02:18:16
how about no
2025-12-18 18:41:55
New red paint on the map, but still days behind the actual situation on the ground
2025-12-19 17:22:32
Yep, the city's capture is imminent. But Dec 31 is gonna be very tight with ISW. However, Jan 31 is a bond.
2025-12-20 17:49:37
Looks like a show of force. They might just board the ship but not seize it
2025-12-20 17:50:41
In the rules, boarding is not enough. It's "boarding and taking control"
2025-12-20 17:57:30
suriyak is not pro-russian
2025-12-21 00:00:24
Pretty big Deepstate update again
2025-12-25 18:07:20
Big if true
2025-12-25 23:47:11
Lmfao we got strikes on Nigeria before Venezuela
2025-12-27 01:19:17
Wtf just happened
2025-12-27 04:10:10
Everything is frozen
2025-12-28 03:49:45
never ever ever let polymarket comments influence your decision to buy or sell anything
2025-12-28 14:35:03
Yeah the 15+ geolocated flags and the Russian soldier dressed as Santa right in the middle of the city are not evidence that Russians captured the city. However, what your imaginary friend told you is rock solid proof that Ukraine still holds. Slava Ukraini!
2025-12-29 13:35:57
No new info, just positioning changes
2025-12-29 14:16:44
you can't be serious
2025-12-29 17:41:26
JD Vance is a fat slob with no chin and negative charisma.
2025-12-29 18:39:52
Is the President of the United States not a reliable source? Come on now, propose already
2025-12-29 20:35:42
So the President of the United States and Commander in Chief of the US military saying they struck Venezuela an unverified claim?
2025-12-30 03:40:28
This website is made to enrich a few whales and screw over the majority of users. However, this clarification is particularly egregious
2025-12-30 04:01:05
This part was added earlier today. For five months before that, this sentence was nowhere to be seen in the rules. This is what people are complaining about
2025-12-30 04:23:59
They added this clarification today to save all the whales on the NO side.
2025-12-30 16:08:16
they changed the rule last minute to prevent whales from losing too much money
2025-12-30 16:40:36
He's -101k precisly because of this market you absolute moron
2025-12-31 16:30:46
Add Keyonte George
2026-01-02 21:43:44
This is a legit source.
2026-01-02 21:55:17
[link removed]
2026-01-03 12:15:34
The big Dec 31 NO holders were days away from losing tens of thousands of dollars lol
2026-01-03 12:16:27
This doesn't count guys, this was the CIA
2026-01-03 12:20:27
The money is nice, but what I look forward most to is for the Nothing Ever Happens crowd to shut the fuck up
2026-01-03 15:13:25
Why the hell would you guys pump Judy Shelton lmao
2026-01-03 15:57:18
2027 is way more likely, but I feel like 11% is a bit cheap for this
2026-01-03 16:46:45
How are they going to run the country without invading it
2026-01-04 03:51:33
Cooper Flagg is way overpriced. Kon and VJ are right there, and there's always the risk of injury making him miss the minimum games played cutoff. Fair price for him should be closer to 50%
2026-01-04 04:02:46
Add Scottie Barnes please. The Raptors have the 4th best defense in the entire league because of him
2026-01-06 02:05:33
This Thunder team is the most overrated in ages. OKC fans thought they were beating the Warriors 73-9 record lmfao
2026-01-06 02:33:38
No regret so far
2026-01-06 02:42:03
I agree my friend. Thought they were due for a win tonight tho
2026-01-08 17:05:41
A 37yo mother with no criminal record and stuffed animals in her car is a left-wing terrorist? Ask yourself what happened in your life for you to become this pathetic
2026-01-08 18:17:48
Waller is by far the most credible candidate when it comes to central bank independence, not Warsh.
2026-01-08 22:01:30
you get it
2026-01-09 15:51:41
Everyday, this administration finds a way of becoming even more pathetic. This behavior would be embarassing coming from an 8yo kid, let alone the president of the US
2026-01-09 18:54:37
you think I'm black because I have a rap album as my profile picture? lmfao
2026-01-09 23:06:03
JD Vance is embarassing himself on X, obsessively writing about the ICE murder in Minnesota. He has absolutely none of Trump’s charisma and political acumen. Just a terminally-online loser. Not even Trump likes him.
2026-01-12 22:27:48
Whales are on the wrong side of the trade, just like they were with the Hamas ceasefire
2026-01-12 22:28:17
Don't forget all the cocky NO holders on Maduro out and US x Venezuela military engagement
2026-01-16 16:42:03
Oh interesting. Still, I believe voters would take into account games missed when casting their vote. I think Flagg is still the favorite, but 78% is too high.
2026-01-16 17:39:05
NEW: Trump suggests Hassett will not be his pick for Fed chair. Trump started his health care event by praising Hassett’s TV appearance this morning. Then says, “I actually want to keep you where you are.”
2026-01-16 17:39:49
Please use your brain. The price for Hassett didn't plunge because of a "scam". People with thousands of dollars invested in this market are actually following the news.
2026-01-16 20:01:28
This is an hilarious market
2026-01-16 20:02:17
This old fuck is 86yo, how much longer will his heart hold up?
2026-01-19 18:31:01
ISW is hilarious
2026-01-20 16:05:22
you can't just blindly tail large whales and expect to make money. You don't know their thinking, or how this particular trade is correlated with the rest of their holdings.
2026-01-20 18:48:30
Yeah that's exactly how it played out with Venezuela and Maduro, right?
2026-01-20 21:46:08
Maduro out by Jan 31 was priced below 8c when it happened lol
2026-01-22 20:54:22
Rooting for you dawg
2026-01-23 21:43:52
I missed you Commie
2026-01-23 21:44:14
They're doing both brother
2026-01-23 21:48:15
Solid alpha man
2026-01-24 04:08:15
Need later strikes
2026-01-30 03:24:16
Did Judy Shelton create a bunch of accounts to boost her odds? Wtf are you guys doing
2026-01-30 21:26:04
I feel like I'm out of the loop. What's going on with Judy Shelton?
2026-01-30 21:26:15
test
2026-02-02 16:19:26
There is nothing in that summary that says Russia won't capture the train station before March 31...
2026-02-02 16:20:02
This market doesn't need the full capture of the city.
2026-02-02 18:31:30
Giannis wants better weather, lower taxes and to stay in the East.
2026-02-04 21:49:24
I don't understand wtf is going on with the Chicago Bulls. Are you guys insiders? There's literally zero traction for them getting Giannis right now
2026-02-15 14:22:11
That 180 000 shares NO wall on Wemby's market is insane lol
2026-02-15 14:22:31
Who's ready to bet more than $130 000 on 1 player out of 23 winning MVP?
2026-02-16 15:25:18
Need March and June markets
2026-02-17 01:46:23
Thank you!
2026-02-17 13:47:26
When a market joins the rewards program it attracts a lot of liquidity
2026-02-20 13:37:50
Wait, you're telling me GDP markets are harder than simply aping into whatever the GDPnow says? :O
2026-02-23 16:39:27
IMNET
2026-02-26 16:21:50
A lot of big red updates on the map over the last few days. It's gonna be tight.
2026-02-28 12:19:54
Thank you for playing everyone
2026-02-28 14:38:47
Even if he's dead, I have a feeling the confirmation won't be in time for the Feb 28 market to resolve to YES
2026-02-28 20:12:12
Damn bro you really don't like the Heat
2026-03-01 14:54:27
Need Dec 31 market
2026-03-03 15:48:18
YES holders for $150, please tell me what you guys are smoking. I want some
2026-03-03 17:02:30
Normally you guys react to new geolocations within milliseconds and this morning it had been hours since flags were spotted and this still traded at 75c lol
2026-03-03 18:14:54
Should have listened to yourself commie
2026-03-03 20:18:13
She’s gone. My only regret is not buying more when it was at 6c for no reason.
2026-03-03 20:18:50
Havent sold a share and don’t plan to
2026-03-04 11:21:33
Nice to see I have some fans
2026-03-04 17:01:50
Thanks for the info, was a super interesting listen. However, nothing I heard made me think oil is going above $120. Low hundreds is definitely possible however
2026-03-04 18:53:46
You're probably thinking of "contiguous"
2026-03-04 21:48:48
Goymaxxing won't save the IRGC
2026-03-04 22:02:43
Settlement will be barely below $75 today
2026-03-05 14:51:29
Next year
2026-03-05 15:39:52
you're talking to a clanker
2026-03-05 16:28:38
then why aren't you buying yes for 110 and 120
2026-03-05 18:26:59
it wouldn't be because of Dem media pressure. It would be because she hasn't shown enough loyalty
2026-03-05 19:10:19
This is getting interesting
2026-03-05 19:11:10
I'm in the zone right now
2026-03-06 23:00:33
bro wtf is that position on the Celtics lmfao
2026-03-07 13:37:08
Flagg YES holders don't know ball
2026-03-09 01:15:57
this is getting really interesting
2026-03-10 16:08:15
based
2026-03-12 12:21:11
Could still be a written message I guess, but yeah, looks like I'm cooked
2026-03-12 13:33:47
LMAO
2026-03-12 15:16:59
Thank you for sharing
2026-03-12 18:26:56
I don't know why I let you retards prevent me from buying up the whole fucking book on March 15.
2026-03-12 18:50:06
Why were all of these whales on March 31 YES at 50c or more? Do these guys just copy trade each other all the time or do they think for themselves
2026-03-29 18:38:13
I don't see any "other" option lol
2026-04-01 16:27:59
no theyre ruining the platform
2026-04-02 02:41:51
These fees are fucking retarded
2026-04-07 14:48:49
Damn... I was so close
2026-04-07 14:49:42
17 ships got through on March 30. Three more and would've been a flawless victory.
2026-04-08 16:37:21
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. So do drone strikes count?
2026-04-08 16:40:49
In any case, April 7 should resolve to NO already. Iranian state media just confirmed Tehran got hit today, April 8.
2026-04-08 16:52:41
Locals confirm explosions and anti-air defense activity over Tehran right now
2026-04-08 17:26:38
Didn’t Iran hit Israel yesterday anyway?
2026-04-08 18:25:49
All of these markets are in Eastern Time, right? Then Iran launched missiles at Israel past midnight in the early hours of April 8. Because of that alone the April 7 market should resolve NO
2026-04-08 19:46:29
Yeah, it should be NO for April 7 but not necessarily April 15
2026-04-08 21:49:52
Iran is getting struck tonight lol
2026-04-11 11:39:22
Need May 31
2026-04-13 16:17:16
There should be
2026-04-13 22:19:52
This is such a dumb way to do it...
2026-04-15 02:25:31
JPMorgan101 you still alive bro? No heart attack?
2026-05-05 19:17:19
I see the vision
2026-05-15 15:57:27
Am I misunderstanding the rules? How come $105 isn't worth 100 right now? A 1-minute candle just hit it
2026-05-15 16:07:52
The current active month is June 2026, which settles on May 19 2026. As of writing it's trading at $105.80 right now. I can see it on the Pyth chart.
2026-05-15 16:18:12
Thanks a lot. Got confused because most data providers (investing, tradingeconomics, etc) still show the June 2026 price since it's still the front month. Always assumed active month and front month to be used interchangeably.
2026-05-15 17:39:53
The previous wording used in March 31 and June 30 markets is much better and much more straightforward. Just use the settlement price of the front month. That's it. No bullshit counting how many business days before the 25th of the month or some shit
2026-05-15 17:45:04
Rules are extra convoluted by design. Not the same rules as March 31 and June 30 markets which feels a bit scummy.
2026-05-23 14:41:25
He knows that a 60-day ceasefire is not a permanent peace deal as described by the rules.
2026-05-24 14:45:49
Israel and Hezbollah have to agree to this. This isn't Trump's decision
2026-05-24 14:50:55
LMAO
2026-05-25 22:20:32
Peacetards crashing out right now
2026-05-31 14:51:18
what's taking so long
2026-05-31 14:52:04
No it's a JD Vance Is a Chud market
2026-06-06 04:05:30
Kat has had a much better series than Brunson so far
2026-06-07 19:47:36
People buying YES on this are from a different species I swear
2026-06-11 03:46:53
Ok that was insane
2026-06-11 03:50:49
OG is clearly the Finals MVP
2026-06-14 12:33:25
Peacetards losing again
2026-06-14 14:20:09
aekghas simply collecting Poly whale money lmao
2026-06-14 22:05:49
no they're signing on June 19 in Switzerland
2026-06-16 13:06:58
Guys like him and Car actively make this platform worse.
2026-06-16 13:20:20
If no one has seen this signed document, how do we know it actually exists?
2026-06-16 19:20:47
If Ghalibaf isn't confirmed YES, why is the market about a deal being signed between USxIran already resolved to YES?
2026-06-19 15:33:50
Add July 31
2026-06-19 19:56:39
I'm so glad this scam attempt didn't end up working. You rats actively make this platform worse.
2026-06-19 19:57:08
justice prevails. stop trying to scam people
2026-06-19 21:06:58
JD Vance is a chud
2026-06-19 22:50:06
that's some solid alpha right there
2026-06-20 13:18:26
JD Vance has gotta be trolling bru
2026-06-20 13:29:16
I mean, in a normal world, the US VP would be a credible source. Sadly, we don't live in such a world.
2026-06-24 12:49:00
Who's brilliant idea was it to put June 30 as the deadline?
2026-06-26 12:33:53
To the top NO holders, you guys know there are much easier ways to make a few thousand dollars?
2026-06-26 12:55:16
Like anything other than putting hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line on an event as volatile and uncertain as this one? This is a very difficult market to price accurately.
2026-06-30 16:28:51
ez money
2026-07-02 00:03:42
Wolves or Sixers
2026-07-04 23:41:52
Cavs overpriced
2026-07-07 17:31:48
you got what you wanted lol
2026-07-09 16:53:10
Should be "military action by..." not specific days. Come on
2026-07-13 00:40:32
people buying YES because Frank Vogel became assistant coach
2026-07-13 15:33:38
TheQuietRisk is right
2026-07-13 15:34:02
why did you sell...
2026-07-21 13:17:54
Dec 31 strikes please
2026-07-24 15:55:11
FREE MONEY
2026-07-24 16:03:35
Trust the process
2026-07-24 16:10:13
pure unfiltered copium
2026-07-24 17:18:22
Add Dec 31 strike
2026-07-24 21:08:15
don't rule cuck please
2026-07-25 15:45:27
what is there even to scam
2026-07-25 16:41:22
Add Aug 2 and Aug 9
2026-07-26 12:43:34
we're all living in yungsoleimani's world, I'm just happy to be a part of it
2026-07-26 12:57:18
Awesome idea
2026-08-01 13:09:56
Can we get the opposite market? Ukraine targets Iran by...?
2026-08-01 18:13:15
Youre right thanks
2026-08-02 22:21:31
best pfp on this website
2026-08-04 17:18:29
Dumocrats want to cancel Thanksgiving
2026-08-16 13:32:27
You know ball
2026-08-16 13:32:54
Realistically this is between Philly and New York, with ATL and IND being severely underpriced
2026-08-25 16:36:09
X account of Oman Foreign Ministry posted a joint statement an hour ago, why wouldn't this count