Account Information
Name:
OraculumNobius
Bio:
Born to be a trader
Pseudonym:
Sudden-Snowstorm
Created:
2024-12-30 00:09:40
Last Activity:
5 days ago
Tier:
Tier 0
X:
@OraculumNobius
profile-image-1731987-a81610be-8e00-4ef4-b21f-565c39ec906e.jpg
Total Profit
$13,372
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$118,881.69
Markets traded
26,278
Trades
26,137
Largest win
$3,442.75
Profile views
4,676
Join date
2024-12-30 00:09:40
All-time rank
11347
All-time PnL
$13,371.91
All-time volume
$29,977,099.67
All-time profit
$13,371.91
Lifetime volume
$29,977,099.67
PnL series latest
$19,247.30
PnL series start
$19,186.70
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$1,930.11
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | No | 51590.05 | $3,442.75 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 58186.0758 | $2,122.16 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 109557.5166 | $1,962.05 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on May 6? | No | 10056.295 | $-9,599.58 |
| Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) | No | 9999.97 | $-9,559.09 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? | Down | 10010.01 | $-8,099.81 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 63959.9305 | $0.93 | $0.97 | $61,849.25 | $2,573.17 |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 39918.8485 | $0.87 | $0.94 | $37,723.31 | $3,069.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on October 10? | No | 7500 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $7,496.25 | $6.76 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 2394.8166 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $2,381.65 | $16.32 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | No | 2000.49 | $0.95 | $0.96 | $1,923.47 | $19.61 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | No | 51590.05 | $3,442.75 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 58186.0758 | $2,122.16 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 109557.5166 | $1,962.05 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? | Up | 1701.5 | $1,469.19 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 18452.588 | $1,133.09 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | REDEEM | Will Donald Trump publicly praise Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.00 | 90 | $90.00 | |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly praise Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.99 | 90 | $89.32 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 57 | $56.94 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 9.34 | $9.33 |
| 5 days ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 10 | $9.99 |
Recent trades (26137)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly praise Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.99 | 90 |
| 5 days ago | BUY | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 316.41 |
| 5 days ago | BUY | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 500 |
| 5 days ago | BUY | Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 11°C on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 60 |
| 5 days ago | BUY | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on October 10? | No | $1.00 | 1361.39 |
Comments
2024-12-31 11:23:44
Anything can happen. For example, some country may ban bitcoin before the new year. Or a data breach or whatever. For example, big funds will lock in profits. I'm betting on “no” too, but don't be so sure. These are just probabilities.
2024-12-31 15:39:32
Thank you, for your money :)
2024-12-31 18:00:58
there will be no magic.)
2025-01-01 11:30:47
Take Elon's cell phone away from him! :)
2025-01-03 11:28:16
How many tweets now?
2025-01-03 13:07:49
what is your strategy?
2025-01-20 14:42:25
9 hours later.
2025-01-24 15:57:11
yep
2025-01-24 15:58:05
Why buy and sell at 50% probability ? Wouldn't it be better to go to the casino ? :)))
2025-01-24 16:11:53
you win, bro.
2025-01-24 16:12:30
people are playing roulette.)
2025-02-02 11:18:21
go, go! )
2025-02-03 14:31:09
You're looking at 2 different locations. Only the first link is involved in this argument.
2025-02-16 13:28:32
:))) me too
2025-02-16 14:04:37
What you need to realize is that there are dozens of weather stations in the city. Some are higher, some are lower. Different winds and conditions give different temperatures in the same city in the range of +/- 2-3 degrees.
2025-02-16 14:07:56
nop
2025-02-16 14:29:37
nop
2025-02-16 14:44:44
nop
2025-02-16 14:45:09
no
2025-02-17 10:15:52
nop. Win 38-39 :))
2025-02-24 15:01:26
Broke?
2025-02-28 07:26:05
)))
2025-03-05 07:43:53
Better to believe statistical probability )
2025-03-05 07:44:40
54 will be the most likely
2025-04-11 18:21:40
@HaileyWelch set ALL IN in UP :))
2025-04-14 16:02:15
I'm sorry, man. That was close.
2025-04-19 19:05:09
I can already imagine how many disputes there will be ))
2025-06-11 13:53:14
A dangerous hour. Someone will lose a lot.
2025-08-15 20:34:07
There is a 99% probability that he will mention Zelensky. In the context of “I want to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table.” This is evident.
2025-08-19 07:53:11
Knowing Putin and his objectives, I will predict what will happen next: 1. He will propose a meeting in Istanbul at the ministerial level. 2. Then there will be lengthy discussions (at least another month) about mutual concessions. 3. And most likely, no agreement will be reached this year. Because Putin needs war, and the end of the war for Putin means the end of his power. So the meeting of the three in August is statistically insignificant.
2025-08-20 17:02:20
Putin refused to meet with Zelensky. The end.
2025-08-27 10:36:29
They are already dead. Being there and capturing it are two different universes.
2025-09-04 08:46:03
Wtf? Sep 3 in review?
2025-09-04 10:44:44
Can anyone tell me when the market will close on September 3?
2025-09-19 12:47:31
These russians are already dead. We're waiting for a new batch of meat.
2025-10-17 11:13:18
I'll explain why. Putin won't be able to get to Hungary. That's because Hungary is surrounded by countries that won't allow his plane to fly over their territory. So the meeting will be postponed, which means it will take time to reach an agreement. And that means the likelihood of a meeting in October is almost zero.
2025-10-17 18:18:52
There are no such transactions here that would be of interest to Trump. These are bets for the poor.
2025-10-24 12:29:02
A couple of Russian disabled people who temporarily ran to the station and were killed long ago by the holy Ukrainian army - that's not an occupation.
2025-11-25 13:16:57
Fighting is ongoing in Kupiansk. The Russians do not control the western part of the city at all. The fact that you believed Russian propaganda is not a problem for ISW.
2025-11-25 13:18:02
Fighting is ongoing in Kupiansk. The Russians do not control the western part of the city at all. The fact that you believed Russian propaganda is not a problem for ISW.
2025-11-25 13:18:52
Guys, stop believing Russian propaganda. Fighting is going on in Kupiansk. The Russians do not control the western part of the city at all. The fact that you believed Russian propaganda is not ISW's problem. It is unlikely that Kupiansk will be captured even in December.
2025-11-25 14:43:45
Russian flags on the ISW map are shown as “seepage” (hatched). But this does not affect the resolution of the dispute.
2025-11-25 14:47:35
100%
2025-11-25 16:19:38
In December, the Russians have a chance to capture Kupiansk.
2025-11-26 15:28:33
He argued and argued, but in the end he sold it ))))
2025-11-26 18:24:57
Show me the smokers in the southeastern part of the city, which is controlled by Ukraine. This dispute is not about displaying flags in certain parts of the city. IT'S ALL KUPYANSK. And the Russians won't be able to control it for a very long time.
2025-11-27 09:18:32
The absence or presence of bets will in no way improve or worsen people's lives in this war. Zero impact. So calm down, since you're here, and bet on “NO” :)
2025-11-27 16:00:33
Russians lie. Always.
2025-11-28 21:46:27
Dispute
2025-11-28 22:28:39
You good trader, what is your strategy?
2025-11-30 21:10:36
Russia has been driven out of half of Kupiansk, Ukraine has cut off supply routes.
2025-12-04 09:40:05
You've fallen for Russian propaganda again.
2025-12-05 12:16:28
yes, if you have invite.
2025-12-07 11:07:49
Can you show me even one video with fascist flags in the western part of the city?
2025-12-08 08:27:21
Is it possible to see the percentage of people voting “yes”?
2025-12-14 12:30:35
idealyno chel)))
2025-12-27 15:45:08
for reason?
2025-12-27 17:48:04
Great news. He has a meeting with the Trumps tomorrow at 3 p.m.
2025-12-27 17:52:33
If the meeting is on December 28, then the events on December 31 will also be “yes”?
2025-12-28 12:28:34
fake russian propoganda.
2025-12-28 17:12:46
nop
2025-12-28 17:13:22
after handshake )))
2025-12-28 18:01:03
5 minute befoer meet ))
2025-12-28 18:29:22
Now you can! )
2025-12-31 09:10:36
))) nobody read the rules )
2026-01-01 08:24:52
Problem all users - they don't read the rules
2026-01-01 12:07:43
The rules are simple. Are there any events on the schedule at [link removed] where Trump mentions “Nuclear” three or more times? The answer is yes. What could be simpler than reading the rules?
2026-01-01 12:13:27
4 is bigger than 3.
2026-01-01 15:09:28
You're missing one important detail. A very small one. An insignificant one. THE RULES CLEARLY STATE THAT THERE IS 100% CONSENSUS THAT THE DECISION IS “YES” :)) Damn, are you serious?
2026-01-03 00:14:32
Thanks for your donation
2026-01-03 15:48:32
PANIC!!! )))
2026-01-03 15:49:40
“Yes” doesn't seem so unbelievable to me anymore ))))
2026-01-03 20:50:51
Emotions lose money. I lost myself. I see hundreds of “YES” owners emotionally proving their point in the comments. Now look at how many “NO” whales are writing in this chat, who will vote and win? :)) Now I know. If I see hundreds of “YES” comments, it means “NO” will win. Thanks for the lesson.
2026-01-03 21:01:14
There is a reason for this. Go through all the “YES” holders. Almost all of them are at a loss, which means they are less likely to win. They are also more emotional and write a lot of messages, which is a red flag for trading. So now I understand Polymarket even better.
2026-01-05 11:15:30
The data is already available. What are we waiting for?
2026-01-05 12:06:15
How are preliminary data estimates from finalized data?
2026-01-05 13:11:47
Thank you. When is the data usually finalized?
2026-01-07 13:37:10
Let's see. But it sounds like a nice scam. Someone is posting fake information about the landing on Twitter en masse. And at the same time, they are buying up “no” votes. I wonder how it will all end. Let's watch and see. If the landing is not confirmed, it will be a nice manipulation and scam.
2026-01-07 13:39:58
Bro, that trick won't work.
2026-01-08 19:38:05
You clinic idiot
2026-01-08 23:46:02
Kyiv - lots of explosions now.
2026-01-09 00:19:25
[link removed]
2026-01-10 09:59:46
Vzyali huy za scheku, a ne Pokrovsk.
2026-01-11 10:38:47
You freeze the money until February 28. Any decision made before that date will be considered EARLY.
2026-01-11 10:55:22
I'm glad you sold on my recommendation so as not to freeze your money :)))
2026-01-11 10:55:39
I'm glad you sold on my recommendation so as not to freeze your money :)))
2026-01-12 20:05:20
Hey guys, can you tell me how to set decimal prices? Why can I see decimal prices in the glass, but I can't set them myself.
2026-01-13 09:04:23
If an actual occupation occurs without consent (the presence of US troops on Greenlandic territory), how will this market be resolved?
2026-01-13 16:03:30
easy peasy )))
2026-01-18 17:49:47
Polymarket's rule that always works: if the comments are all “yes,” then “no” will win.
2026-01-19 08:45:40
By sources, do you mean fake Russian propaganda? According to their sources, they have already taken over half of Europe and Alaska. Better sell me some more “NO.”
2026-01-20 15:36:48
Please advise, will forceful seizure, annexation, and unilateral declaration of ownership be considered? (For example, how Russia annexed Crimea?)
2026-01-20 19:02:04
When you bought at 0.3, what were you counting on? A miracle? Don't bet against the market. I've already learned that lesson too )))
2026-01-20 19:45:51
The rules are simple. Only what was online counts. That's it. There's no dispute here. The correct answer is “NO.”
2026-01-20 19:47:42
Don't cry when the market takes your money. Wipe away your tears and keep working. And don't bet against the market anymore.
2026-01-20 21:11:05
Only live broadcasts are counted, not recordings.
2026-01-30 08:22:02
There was no alarm that day. Nothing flew in. Hi. I'm from Kiev. Insider! :))))
2026-02-01 10:07:44
I have a question for the audience. Judging by everything, the option “It's too early” will win on UMA. That is, neither “yes” nor “no.” The rules do not clearly state that any rumors are interpreted in favor of ‘yes’ or “no,” which means that this dispute will remain unresolved and will ultimately be decided 50/50. Am I right, or am I mistaken in my reasoning?
2026-02-01 17:40:13
Can anyone explain why the price is so high? I don't understand. For the answer to be “yes,” the map must be red (not penetration). It is very likely that this will not happen in February.
2026-02-01 17:51:42
ok. understand. sold my no.
2026-02-04 16:06:48
nop
2026-02-05 11:16:40
when )) in Feb o March? ))
2026-02-05 12:17:55
Exchange is completed
2026-02-05 12:21:25
[link removed]
2026-02-05 17:51:32
when close market?
2026-02-05 20:51:02
map uodate, it over
2026-02-06 12:01:45
nop. Im in Kiev. No attack.
2026-02-06 13:14:22
buy more Yes
2026-02-06 20:32:34
чому? ) Я вже в підвалі )))
2026-02-06 21:23:20
Dreary-Arena bought my NO on 6 FEB ))) Faster
2026-02-06 21:27:21
Do you think the rules make decisions here? ))) If no one challenges it within an hour, the “YES” vote will win.
2026-02-07 00:01:42
Kyiv Oblast is not Kyiv. This market only Kiev.
2026-02-07 13:09:10
Response Polymarket support: A consensus of credible reporting indicates that government representatives of the United States and Iran held a direct, in-person diplomatic meeting in Oman on February 6, 2026.
2026-02-07 18:46:40
Map update 06.02.
2026-02-07 18:47:31
Map Update 06.02. next full ISW daily update cycle compled
2026-02-08 08:43:58
WTF Tsybka by SELL for 0.1 cent 40 min earler. HOW?
2026-02-08 09:38:52
I read the entire context in X. Now I understand. You made the right decision to return it. I respect that.
2026-02-08 16:37:06
yep. Buy NO more
2026-02-08 16:38:04
No strike in Kiev
2026-02-08 16:59:41
It's not over yet. We're taking a risk! ))
2026-02-08 19:10:17
Agane Vasilkiv 4 missle.
2026-02-10 10:30:12
This news relates to the previous market, which has already been decided as “YES.” Please note the date of creation of the current market. Your news does not relate to the current market, as it closed the previous market. It is very important to look at the market rules so as not to lose money.
2026-02-10 15:13:40
see on create date, and think!
2026-02-10 15:13:51
see on create date
2026-02-10 16:18:25
No, after 24 hour
2026-02-10 16:20:46
resolved in 5:00 PM ET 11.02
2026-02-10 16:21:25
maket will resolved in 5:00 PM ET, 11.02
2026-02-10 20:37:30
Do you have link?
2026-02-10 20:51:23
Not disput, but poof of
2026-02-10 20:52:27
Not link, but proof what Rogan say Shutdown
2026-02-11 07:36:34
There are no easy markets. There is always risk. For example, yesterday there could have been reports of a strike in another country. Then we would have compared time zones, and the bet could have lost (rules). Today, this bet is safer than yesterday. And in 15 hours, the market will resolve itself if there are no new reports of attacks on other countries during this period.
2026-02-11 13:01:23
maket will resolved in 5:00 PM ET. (9 hours late)
2026-02-11 19:40:23
You joke? news from 2025 ? ))) Hello, now 2026 )
2026-02-11 19:40:35
nop
2026-02-11 19:41:46
no
2026-02-11 19:41:58
news from 2025 )
2026-02-11 19:42:35
isw not sorce for this market
2026-02-11 19:43:25
no. Only Somalia strike. Market close soon. (2 hour).
2026-02-11 19:45:09
The market will close in 2 hours. You still have time to buy Somalia.
2026-02-11 20:14:11
No, because the market was created on Feb 3, 2026, 8:07 PM ET. The CENTCOM Syria strikes happened Jan 27 – Feb 2 — all before market creation. Only strikes after creation count as "next". Somalia strike (Feb 9) is clearly after → correct resolution.
2026-02-11 20:15:16
No, because the market was created on Feb 3, 2026, 8:07 PM ET. The CENTCOM Syria strikes happened Jan 27 – Feb 2 — all before market creation. Only strikes after creation count as "next". Somalia strike (Feb 9) is clearly after → correct resolution.
2026-02-11 20:17:39
No, because the market was created on Feb 3, 2026, 8:07 PM ET. The CENTCOM Syria strikes happened Jan 27 – Feb 2 — all before market creation. Only strikes after creation count as "next". Somalia strike (Feb 9) is clearly after → correct resolution.
2026-02-11 20:37:41
I looked at your profile, and as a friend, I recommend that you stop buying penny stocks where everything has already been decided.
2026-02-11 20:49:53
may be 13 (God save Ukraine)
2026-02-12 07:04:57
n the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
2026-02-12 07:05:26
Important: including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv. :))) Klitchko is Kyiv City State Administration.
2026-02-12 07:21:42
I have a photo of a drone that crashed into the window of a residential building. The engine is lying in the hallway.
2026-02-12 08:33:05
To resolve this issue, you need a link to an article from a reputable publication that contains specific information about the strike and damage, rather than an abstract “attack on Kyiv.”
2026-02-12 08:33:16
Что бы разрешить этот рынок, вам нужна ссылка на статью с авторитетным изданием, которая будет содержать не абстратная "атака на Киев", а конкретная информация об ударе и повреждениях.
2026-02-12 11:10:59
He doesn't keep an eye on Tsybka, so he lost. Conclusion. We are keeping a close eye on Tsybka's deals. ))
2026-02-12 11:12:05
nop, damage tec-5
2026-02-12 11:16:49
minus 90% you meen )
2026-02-12 12:38:59
it mooved )
2026-02-12 14:23:52
cant find disput on vote uma
2026-02-12 14:35:53
Okay. I've studied the rules, Discord, and the opinions. Now I know the final decision. )
2026-02-12 14:36:26
ни в коем случае
2026-02-12 14:43:34
The consensus of the majority is when there is almost no doubt that it happened. But now it's “probably” or “around that time.” In such cases, the decision is almost always “NO.” Just from practical observation.
2026-02-12 14:52:05
It won't help if a reliable source comes out. After P4 (too early), the decision will be acceptable based on current data. For now, it's a “NO” due to the quality of the confirmation. (It's not even in the sources here.)
2026-02-12 15:24:18
The market will close in 6 hours. Will you make it in time?
2026-02-12 15:29:18
The procedure is as follows. Since there is no 100% reliable data, the decision “too early P4” is always given, and when the deadline expires according to the rules (after 6 hours), the market will make the decision “NO” as the only alternative.
2026-02-12 15:31:44
no, makret close after 6 hour on NO. Timer for disput. Disput vote "Early".
2026-02-12 17:58:30
February 10 close NO in 4 hours.
2026-02-12 18:58:47
February 10 close NO in 3 hours.
2026-02-12 19:17:51
No. There is no date, no mention of any operation, or other details that would allow us to make a clear decision. There is still no answer. You have 2.5 hours to sell “YES.”
2026-02-12 20:08:42
The whales have decided to turn the market upside down. Well, okay. There's no point in playing against them. I'm out at a loss.
2026-02-12 20:12:05
You can rest assured. Judging by Discord, the decision will be yes. (in 2 days)
2026-02-12 20:13:58
New evidence has emerged confirming that the attack took place on the 10th. Decisions must be made quickly! :)))))
2026-02-12 20:17:04
New evidence has emerged confirming that the attack took place on the 10th. Decisions must be made quickly! :)))))
2026-02-12 20:20:03
Discord UMA. All the information is there. The whales chose the “YES” side.
2026-02-12 20:21:17
P4 was before the consensus. Usually, the last votes determine the new consensus. Keep watching to see how many “YES” votes will come in a row. I bet there will be at least 10.
2026-02-12 21:04:09
Fresh information from Discord. Whales are once again leaning towards NO. Reason: all primary sources of the news are HAMAS, and the reprinting of this news by newspapers (even major ones) is not an argument. In general, the market promises to be interesting.
2026-02-13 19:50:22
We are waiting for confirmation on the election commission website.
2026-02-13 20:24:41
The volumes are not large, and the market price can be changed to 300 million for a small amount. So be careful if the whales have such a plan.
2026-02-14 17:28:24
If the medal is taken away after doping, you will lose money.
2026-02-17 17:08:35
ET time. Check it
2026-02-17 17:54:03
Interesting :)
2026-02-17 18:03:17
make disput
2026-02-18 11:20:59
Does anyone know why the dashboard lists an Reward of 40?
2026-02-19 19:25:03
You can find Turnout on web site EC?
2026-02-21 09:51:00
You joke? Market close by YES in 10-12 hours.
2026-02-21 17:22:48
MAP UPDATE
2026-02-21 17:23:03
YES WIN
2026-02-21 20:04:45
Since the market closes in a few hours, we are waiting for the ISW news update.
2026-02-22 00:03:08
Map finalized 21.02. Resolve YES. That's all.
2026-02-22 19:12:01
Link?
2026-02-22 19:12:08
Link?
2026-02-22 19:14:11
This house is located outside Kiev (Sofievskaya Borshchagovka, Kiev region).
2026-02-22 19:14:48
All hits 22.02 were outside Kiev, including the destroyed house.
2026-02-23 07:11:09
Kiev region,not Kiev
2026-02-23 07:11:17
Kiev region. Not Kiev
2026-02-23 07:17:11
Bro. You spammed the whole thread because of your 20 bucks. Calm down. Everything will be fine.
2026-02-23 08:55:46
15 march, because what if Minecraft gets re-released? ))
2026-02-24 09:59:13
Yeeee!! BUY MORE YESSS! YEEE JUSTICE! :)
2026-02-24 17:36:03
No, he can't. He can DISPUT if somone propose from white list proposers
2026-02-24 20:11:59
Explain this.
2026-02-24 20:12:54
Kyiv suburb. Not Kyiv.
2026-02-24 20:16:09
Of course not ))) Negotiations are scheduled for the 26th. No one starts before the negotiations.
2026-02-25 08:44:32
You spent more calories writing the text than the potential income.
2026-02-25 11:15:31
Very interesting. I understand that the market will move toward NO until a photo suddenly appears that will turn the market around again. Good game.
2026-02-25 12:42:53
It is during this time that you earn these cents.
2026-03-03 14:06:35
That's the procedure. About another day or so. You can sell for 99.9
2026-03-03 20:30:46
3 day whait ((
2026-03-06 21:11:00
wtf. why it happen?
2026-03-08 06:23:53
That doesn't make sense. The decision will still be NO.
2026-03-08 10:55:57
It's better to ask this question:
What are the chances that the market won't resolve at all, since there are no alternatives to this data in the rules? :))
Most likely, the data for the 7th will appear and the market will resolve.
I think many people have already written to the site's technical support.
2026-03-08 11:00:51
no data, 50-50 resolve? :)))
2026-03-08 21:23:16
How do you think this market will be resolved?
2026-03-09 06:42:31
Because someone is using a last-minute reversal strategy. When the market has already decided NO, someone flips it in a split second to profit from a sharp pullback.
2026-03-09 08:25:19
second
2026-03-12 07:07:31
NFL contracts have been signed and published. How are such markets generally closed?
2026-03-12 17:07:09
nobody know right answer
2026-03-13 15:10:56
Map Update
2026-03-17 11:13:38
az_Khamenei
2026-03-19 14:13:58
What if he dies? You're betting on an old man's heart valve. That's not very wise.
2026-03-22 23:50:12
Rule says clearly. 3 day - only NO.
2026-03-27 11:56:22
The correct answer: It's too early.
Trump might post more tweets. But so far, it's 97—maybe more... But not right now.
2026-03-27 16:01:44
It's complicated.
There are 97 tweets. But there are also 10 retweets that aren't tracked.
They don't have their own ID or timestamp.
That's why we need to change the rules of this market.
Whatever the vote decides, that's how it will be.
2026-03-27 16:28:43
3 day
2026-03-27 16:30:23
The problem with reposts on Social Tru is that they lack a timestamp and a post ID. In other words, they’re essentially the same as the original post. This means that reposts cannot be identified.
If you want to prove otherwise, go ahead and try.
2026-03-30 20:00:49
It’s an emotional market, not a rational one.
It will take ships a couple of days to reach shore. And it will be immediately obvious.
ZERO. That’s the likelihood of any invasion happening in March (or even April). Because gas prices in America will skyrocket. And everyone understands that.
2026-03-31 05:06:20
There won't be a ground operation at all. Not this month, not next month, not any month.
2026-04-02 17:03:08
not finalized data. Dont panic. aswer is correct. need some time
2026-04-03 22:23:25
Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify. RULES.
2026-04-04 09:34:00
Aircraft crashes and rescue operations will not be taken into account when determining the outcome of this market. Only ground invasions by military forces will be considered (the capture of an island or an invasion of the mainland). This market will close with a “NO” result in 25 days.
2026-04-04 09:34:48
Only emotion. Aircraftcrashes and rescue operations will not be taken into account when determining the outcome of this market. Only ground invasions by military forces will be considered (the capture of an island or an invasion of the mainland). This market will close with a “NO” result in 25 days.
2026-04-06 18:20:50
ok. 5min bro.
2026-04-09 17:49:35
How do you track views exactly 120 hours later? For example, how can I find out right now how many views there were after 120 hours?
2026-04-16 14:08:42
We have a time machine. And we saw that it will be 19 in an one hour. )))
2026-04-16 14:43:59
as i sad
2026-04-21 14:21:15
link in rules
2026-04-21 16:52:03
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil
2026-06-03 17:11:09
:)
2026-06-03 18:16:46
That’s not how it works.
There are 300,000,000 $ who buy “NO” because the decision had already been made, and on the other hand, there are 300,000 $ that buy “YES.” (Or rather, for some reason, they gave their money to the owners of the 300 million.)
That’s it.
2026-06-22 09:42:54
Because...
2026-06-26 08:22:21
a u sure? :)
2026-06-30 08:43:14
15 hours until the market closes "NO" :)))
2026-06-30 16:22:09
Dude, you're really risky. By December, ISW will definitely take over Konstantinovka. And the chance that Putin will step down is very, very (less than 1%) small.
2026-06-30 17:28:20
link
2026-07-02 07:03:42
The front is holding its position, so the map is not updating. Given the situation, soon the map will start moving in the opposite direction, being shaded in blue.
2026-07-06 10:27:19
The Russian Ministry of Defense always lies. Literally. Every one of their statements is a lie. For example, they claimed they captured Kupyansk. What do you think - did they capture it?
2026-07-07 08:48:23
Very easy. Check which stocks they hold, "Yes" or "No" :))
Right now they hold "No" stocks. So the final result is obvious. Unless Polymarket intervenes with a market explanation.
2026-07-07 17:41:40
This is so stupid. I don't place bets on this market because over a long time I've realized that the truth isn't as important as what the whales vote for in the dispute. Everyone, absolutely everyone, saw him cry. The rules say "did he cry" and the answer is definitely yes, he cried. No one, absolutely no one, will say he didn't cry. But "Did not cry" will still win. Absurdity is part of the dispute system, and this needs to be taken. I wish there was less absurdity on this site.
2026-07-07 18:54:57
If every time someone wrote the phrase "Polymarket will lose trust" I got 1 dollar, I would be a millionaire. They do this every time, yet their turnover and profits keep growing. It's the opposite. You lose money, others earn it and are happy.
2026-09-15 18:23:02
Read the explanation. The opening day is counted.
2026-10-09 09:02:38
nop