Account Information
Name:
Konfucious
Bio:
Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.
Pseudonym:
Traumatic-Bakery
Created:
2026-01-27 12:16:33
Last Activity:
1 week ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-5528858-c6d3a26a-2a6f-4956-9d58-6e9791fe6a64.png
Total Profit
$5,568
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$2,767.93
Markets traded
794
Trades
794
Largest win
$187.28
Profile views
1,066
Join date
2026-01-27 12:16:33
All-time rank
23525
All-time PnL
$5,567.94
All-time volume
$295,233.29
All-time profit
$5,557.48
Lifetime volume
$295,233.29
PnL series latest
$5,557.48
PnL series start
$5,522.49
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$282.95
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 328.3 | $187.28 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | No | 1658.0213 | $185.26 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? | No | 508.4522 | $163.48 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | No | 1148.4506 | $-248.40 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? | No | 514.7693 | $-169.46 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | Yes | 1125.9113 | $-154.34 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 300.02 | $0.62 | $0.73 | $219.16 | $34.53 |
| Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | No | 201.3264 | $0.57 | $1.00 | $200.72 | $86.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | No | 200.0028 | $0.85 | $0.99 | $198.50 | $29.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 230 | $0.79 | $0.82 | $189.75 | $8.78 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | No | 202 | $0.80 | $0.94 | $188.87 | $28.04 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 328.3 | $187.28 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | No | 1658.0213 | $185.26 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? | No | 508.4522 | $163.48 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | No | 674.05 | $137.76 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? | No | 334.415 | $117.24 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Russia target Kyiv by August 22, 2026? | No | $0.03 | 100 | $3.00 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | Yes | $0.80 | 20 | $15.96 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | No | $0.89 | 14.93 | $13.29 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | No | $0.89 | 5.07 | $4.51 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | No | $0.52 | 20 | $10.44 |
Recent trades (794)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | BUY | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | Yes | $0.23 | 36.49 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | Yes | $0.23 | 6.02 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? | No | $0.56 | 10 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? | No | $0.50 | 5 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026? | No | $0.29 | 11.4 |
Comments
2026-02-04 22:59:54
source?
2026-02-06 11:58:33
Just bet no then.
2026-02-07 14:02:15
Since when was polymarket not a casino
2026-02-09 19:00:24
Me too, cant place any buy or sells suddenly
2026-02-17 15:49:11
It's not from today because they quote the IDF X statement in that article which you can go and find on X and it literally refers to a strike which was not today.
2026-02-20 18:34:36
Brother itās a yes, just move onto the next day.
2026-02-28 01:52:16
The power of greed and hope
2026-03-02 13:51:57
12
2026-03-02 15:03:56
Same I got fucken cooked
2026-03-08 02:16:56
Bro youāre down 18k, how can you even speak.
2026-03-13 01:08:07
hit the nail on the head here
2026-03-16 17:17:54
That's why Poly had to remove these maekts
2026-03-19 12:29:48
How is this not a yes, IDF even confirmed it.
2026-03-20 01:39:10
Yea there is a problem here, shit is glitching
2026-03-23 02:28:41
Bro how the fuck can you criticize a guy with a 3K profit when you are in the red. STFU mate.
2026-03-23 22:07:33
There is no credible evidence any of them hit israel
2026-04-01 19:48:40
Oh damn you are right, you should definitely buy more yes!
2026-04-01 22:00:52
It doesn't guys, literally just read the rules before throwing $300 into a market, it takes 1 minute
2026-04-03 18:01:42
Burden of proof is on the yes holders though, there needs to evidence that a boot touched the ground.
2026-04-11 16:54:15
Thats s long way off buddy
2026-04-15 13:07:45
I don't see you, what's your discord?
2026-04-16 10:46:18
Insider for sure yea
2026-04-21 21:47:10
Khameni will give a response Wednesday in Iran, just needs to be before deadline for April 21 to win.
2026-04-22 17:29:29
If Iran says they reject the ceasefire, there obviously is not one, both parties have to agree, it doesn't matter what Trump or any one says as long as official Iranian sources don't state outright they agree to the ceasefire, currently they are very obviously saying they don't agree, hence no at 80. Super obvious stuff mate
2026-04-24 12:29:38
Bro reuters, bloomberg and CNN are posting about it, how is that fake news
2026-04-24 16:41:46
If it doesn't happen tomorrow night it won't happen aat all
2026-04-24 16:48:00
How is it scammers when literally CNN is reporting it, no one just made up the that Witkoff is going there, they are legit going toPakistan, whether they have a meeting is another question
2026-04-25 18:30:29
Incredible insight there
2026-04-25 19:44:58
There is no way Pakistan giving the US a note from Iran qualifies as them being a designated mediator when Iran explicitly denies wanting to have talks with the US, it's just common sense.
2026-04-26 21:40:52
Tongue in a cheek is literally a joke, the rules are not going to mention every single kind of comment where he is not dead serious, it's common sense.
2026-04-27 19:32:37
"Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice" - I'd include clip farming as not credible, does any yes holder actually believe she is pregnant? probably 90% don't so how can it be credible. If he was serious he could have done it in 100 better ways.
2026-04-27 20:30:53
That's true but in the rules they say, not credible "for example jokes" (not only jokes), that could mean a lot of other things as well such as tongue-in-cheek, sarcasm, trolling, irony, rage-bait comments etc. the list goes on and on. I'd argue it's one such comment, therefore not credible, the rules are badly stated which has created this problem, it could go either way but, yes is overvalued though IMO.
2026-04-27 22:25:50
Exactly, this market is so risky it's literally gambling, yet people throw thousands in and then complain when they lose, literally may as well go to the casino with these markets, at least don't get so pissy when you lose.
2026-04-28 03:08:02
Bro Iām sorry but the fact you gambled away your college tuition just proves how dumb you are, if you know certain users get favourable resolutions how do you end up losing 60k betting against them, thats 100% on you.
2026-04-29 17:56:55
Some markets have insiders, on those markets us normal guys get fucked
2026-05-01 12:10:55
It sucks, but the Yes decision was made before Clav said anything about it being a joke, that's why. Still dumb, but not a scam.
2026-05-04 20:56:13
If they think US/Israel are about to strike them they will close their airspace, that's what they did last time.
2026-05-21 19:10:22
He's always wrong, that's explains why he 20x your total profit lol.
2026-05-22 11:33:49
Taken you nearly 5 months to turn $100 into $350 so I doubt it bro. Much harder trading with large sums than small ones too.
2026-05-23 14:20:57
If it means they stop fighting permanently then it will be yes
2026-05-23 17:31:45
If they decide to permanently end the fighting it counts
2026-05-23 17:41:59
Dude have you even read the rules? Ceasefire refers to the end of military hostilities between the two nothing else iw mentioned, nuclear deal is separate.
2026-05-23 17:50:50
Yea and if they agree to permanently stop fighting ita gonna be a yes, even if they havenāt agreed on everything else.
2026-05-23 21:51:13
You're conveniently leaving out "After that, the two parties will have 30 days to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue". The 30 days is only regarding the nuclear deal which is irrelevant for this market, this is only about "explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease". The fighting will stop permanently. They don't say anything about the fighting being temporarily paused so you can assume it is permanent as they explicitly mention 30 days for the nuclear deal. It will therefore probably go yes. I'd be shitting bricks holding no
2026-05-24 03:02:00
If trump posts on truth social a deal has been reached, all us no holders are cooked, it's an announcement market.
2026-05-24 03:16:30
Iran don't have to say anything, the market is US announces ceasefire. If trump announces it on truth social it's going yes. As long as he says it's a ceasefire it will qualify, "President Trump announcing that āthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.ā will qualify" so as long as he says something along those lines it goes yes. Not that hard to figure out
2026-05-24 03:23:09
The disputer will lose, this market isnāt about there being a legit ceasefire in place, itās just an announcement market. Thereās a separate market for an agreed upon ceasefire. No where does it say Iran need to also agree etc.
2026-05-24 16:53:24
Don't put much faith in your AI analysis.
2026-05-25 20:21:42
The market for a deal announcement tomorrow is at like 20%, so currently it's unlikely they will sign tomororw.
2026-05-26 01:29:07
It did happen, don't dispute
2026-05-27 00:13:44
You're an idiot for trading with your college tuition, serves u right mate. How dumb can u be.
2026-05-27 00:19:18
Wow so it must be someone else's fault you lost the bets you yourself placed at the specific entry points you chose with the specific volume you yourself chose, makes sense. Bro no one has sympathy for you. Get off polymarket and stop whining and go get a job.
2026-05-27 17:20:36
There is no way that would qualify as a yes. Else just bet on May 28 if you truly believe it and 20x your money.
2026-06-06 12:40:57
Itās only a fun market when you win, when you lose its suck ass
2026-06-08 13:19:14
"Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify." - we chilling
2026-06-08 13:45:42
I hope so. you never know tho, this was made to prevent the rulecuck imo but anything can happen
2026-06-10 00:57:24
Thing is eventually it will happen, they will make peace sometime. hopium has people on edge
2026-06-13 17:12:41
If anything in it has any nuclear agreement you're cooked though, the rules on this market are super loose. You can still at a decent price.
2026-06-13 17:34:43
But they literally say it is a permanent peace deal, the 60 days is for later discussions on the nuclear issue, but the ceasefire is permanent. If it says that it should go yes surely.
2026-06-13 20:28:01
Of course it will, it's an announcement market, the truth has no impact on it.
2026-06-14 12:41:34
How's that been working out for you bud.
2026-06-14 13:23:32
Ayy actually you are not doing badly, keep it up mate.
2026-06-15 00:26:36
lol let me quote what mehr said - āmandates an immediate, permanent end to all military operations on all fronts ā¦ā yea doesnāt sound permanent to me ā¦ bro just sell your no. Will give you peace of mind.
2026-06-15 01:45:56
Because pretty much every version of the MOU says a permanent ceasefire is part of the MOU.
2026-06-15 18:28:45
Exactly, ita not rocket science to figure out why this went this yes - MOU literally says permanent ceasefire and people cry ita a scam lol.
2026-06-15 18:31:08
Itās a framework for future negotiations regarding the nuclear discussion, but the fighting ends permanently from now, hence permanent ceasefire. Iām sorry guys but as someone unbiased I have like no yes shares and sold my no itās definitely a yes.
2026-06-15 18:33:17
And you guys really expect to be able to buy no for like 20c and then cry scam when you canāt 5x your money. Iām sorry but you guys are fucken idiots lol, everyone knew this makrwt was going to be controversial but you decided to put half your portfolio in it any ā¦.. cmon guys.
2026-06-15 18:40:03
lol bro they donāt need to sign a deal if they both agree on an MOU which says āpermanat ceasefireā which is exactly what it says.
2026-06-15 18:48:36
Thats according to you bro - read the first sentence of paragraph two - the MOU literally says a permanent end to fighting has happened - thats all this market needs. The legal distinction between the two is completely irrelevant here or my or your or some other dudes interpretation of the rules. Iām just telling you this is going to go yes so you should just sell your no already and move on mate.
2026-06-15 19:06:19
Your literally just ignoring the obvious reason this market went yes - bro the MOU go Google it says in it right now permanent end to fighting, youāre ignoring reality because you lost money. Peace out and have fun when this goes yes lol
2026-06-15 22:13:15
Bro itās pointless arguing with the no holders
2026-06-17 10:58:42
Yea i reckon this will likely go yes, sold all my no's even though according to the rules this seems more like a no to more. But what do we really know, dudes are putting 100s of thousands of dollars into this.
2026-06-17 17:55:48
June 30 no definitely cooked buddy
2026-06-17 21:53:49
Trump might have but Iranian foreign minister said - "The memorandum of understanding was agreed to be signed digitally." so at the very least the iranians didn't so it's a no pal
2026-06-18 00:30:40
Irna News agency posted sbout it, just unlucky unfortunately
2026-06-18 22:05:57
Bro no one is taking him seriously, at least I hope so.
2026-06-19 19:59:22
š
2026-06-19 22:16:39
Itās old
2026-06-19 22:17:02
Really? Why?
2026-06-20 13:26:07
I mean if that qualifies as a yes, it's 100x worse then the "yes scam" on enrichment tho.
2026-06-20 13:41:26
Yea well got confirmed to be legit after all
2026-06-20 18:23:12
"If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify."
2026-06-20 22:08:14
Not too shabby
2026-06-21 11:32:53
Or maybe they are just all positioned there cause it was obvious the meeting was going to happen and theyāre not idiots ā¦
2026-06-23 15:28:55
Dispute but you will 100% lose, it's in the news.
2026-06-25 14:05:45
always whales manipulating everytime something happens lol, but could never be the news
2026-06-26 14:10:41
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. - it won't count
2026-06-26 20:39:30
mate get off polymarket if you just gonna whinge, no crying in the casino
2026-06-27 12:12:36
for sure feels a bit mispriced, market is acting like it's confirmed for after July 17.
2026-06-28 13:55:52
Some people don't read the rules properly
2026-06-28 16:47:13
well bro go read marco rubios quote on the upcoming meetings (Tuesday) which have now been stalled anyway. He refers to them specifically as technical lower level meetings so I have no idea why you went so hard on yes, there is a reason market was at 85% no before recent udpates of delay even.
2026-06-28 21:31:15
0 senior officials going on Tuesday
2026-06-29 14:08:44
Go read the news mate its not rocket science here
2026-06-29 15:37:18
The whales scam everything these days .......
2026-07-07 00:38:06
espero que
2026-08-03 23:33:54
UMA whales gonna convince trump to bomb Iran to scam market to yes, nothing we can do unfortunately.
2026-08-07 09:03:47
Fars saying they hit a ship is not enough evidence
2026-08-08 11:50:41
Which day are you referring too? Should go yes then
2026-08-09 08:57:28
Propose yes - it wonāt get disputed
2026-08-09 11:25:05
Why you guys even here still, that shit happenned like 3 months ago, get off polymarket and go work if itās such a scam
2026-08-09 17:49:44
Simping? Mate youāre negative pnl and going on about sometging which ended 3 months ago which is never going to change, stop whining and get a life, you knew what polymarket was like when you placed the bet you lost. Iām giving you advice you should take.
2026-08-09 20:02:53
$100 in 9 months and youāre telling me I donāt know how polymarket works - Jesus dude all Iām saying is if you think itās such a scam why tf are you here? You use your free will to continually trade here while making $100 in like a year and calling it a scam, why are you even here then? No one is forcing you to trade on poly.
2026-08-09 20:27:19
You hate it here clearly yet are still here for god knows what reason - Iām simply pointing that out.
2026-08-09 20:55:20
What ever mate gl on poly, dont oversize sĆ³ much on any market in the future - more advice for you.
2026-08-12 20:49:15
100% it would, probably the most likely way it will be announced too.
2026-08-13 17:48:03
Apparently two birds were mistaken for drones and got shot down which destroyed the geese population of Saudi, a tragedy really.
2026-08-13 18:28:42
just google it's ez to find what happenned, still a no atm tho imo, but early days.
2026-08-13 19:51:07
Is that the only source for the meeting?
2026-08-13 20:41:40
I definitely would not trust gpt, did any people from either side even interact? Previously there were important people from both sides involved from what I remember.
2026-08-14 06:41:29
yea mate you literally just proved my point, that was the previous one, who met at this one porx shared?
2026-08-17 16:41:58
No
2026-08-18 07:37:16
too much AI mate, it's misleading you
2026-08-18 09:20:28
yea it's right, it's a no
2026-08-18 14:47:08
I like how you just left out the entire second part of that sentence lol
2026-08-20 10:39:23
sick arb
2026-08-22 07:46:48
yea ofc, the randomness is definitely consistent
2026-08-28 21:11:39
No cooked bruv