Account Information
Name:
hyper-liquid-xyz
Pseudonym:
Magnificent-Seizure
Created:
2025-09-06 22:13:24
Last Activity:
10 months ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-3324466-68fae2b5-2492-4b89-8a1b-5268f6fa39c9.png
Total Profit
$-1,850
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$0.00
Markets traded
85
Trades
85
Largest win
$2,741.49
Profile views
383
Join date
2025-09-06 22:13:24
All-time rank
3009046
All-time PnL
$-1,849.88
All-time volume
$478,273.81
All-time profit
$-1,849.88
Lifetime volume
$478,273.81
PnL series latest
$-1,849.88
PnL series start
$-1,849.88
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$0.00
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? | Yes | 5450.9733 | $2,741.49 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 6505.1893 | $2,364.33 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 8960.9706 | $2,312.27 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 17886.6419 | $-3,123.94 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? | No | 4782.94 | $-1,691.15 |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Yes | 5311.95 | $-780.76 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? | Yes | 4755.9345 | $0.28 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-1,350.33 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 21870.0011 | $0.06 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-1,355.77 |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Padres | 2158 | $0.32 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-695.59 |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | No | 1269.9988 | $0.14 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-175.50 |
| Yankees vs. Orioles | Orioles | 366.11 | $0.53 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-194.04 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? | Yes | 5450.9733 | $2,741.49 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 6505.1893 | $2,364.33 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 8960.9706 | $2,312.27 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? | Yes | 16081.3638 | $1,870.23 |
| Will MarĆa Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 8886 | $1,702.61 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? | Yes | $0.08 | 48.87 | $3.91 |
| 10 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Yes | $0.33 | 5 | $1.65 |
| 10 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | $0.79 | 5 | $3.95 |
| 10 months ago | TRADE | SELL | 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Yes | $0.06 | 5311.95 | $308.28 |
| 10 months ago | TRADE | SELL | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Yes | $0.17 | 2281.33 | $394.72 |
Recent trades (85)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 months ago | SELL | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? | Yes | $0.08 | 48.87 |
| 10 months ago | SELL | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Yes | $0.33 | 5 |
| 10 months ago | SELL | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | $0.79 | 5 |
| 10 months ago | SELL | 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Yes | $0.06 | 5311.95 |
| 10 months ago | SELL | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Yes | $0.17 | 2281.33 |
Comments
2025-09-16 16:17:59
An important thing prior to the clarification is Polymarket views these grey areas in a balance of probabilities - i.e. is it more likely than not or vice versa that this event happened.
2025-09-16 18:09:31
Very hard to watch in both sides - very reserved attacks - it might end 0-0
2025-09-23 18:18:56
When the program is ready by December 18 there is another hurdle where the applicants would have to go through DHS vetting prior to receiving the gold cards. I'm concerned the first actual sale might be early 2026. We might have to sweat this out.
2025-09-24 04:30:42
The program ready is that the Secretary of Commerce is done implementing their gold card plan, not the selling of the gold cards. How would it be a sale if they didn't successfully purchase it yet?
2025-09-24 04:35:41
That won't qualify as h1b visas are existing programs and not new programs.
2025-10-03 20:20:28
[link removed]
2025-10-03 20:26:53
Hamas is accepting the 20 point plan - thanks to the entire world pressuring them as well as the Gaza Flotilla. Now I have doubts they will KEEP the ceasefire until this year finishes, however Hamas would want some room to relax given how much their territory is destroyed.
2025-10-05 18:09:22
If there is still any doubt look at how the Israeli - Iran ceasefire market ended - https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july. Pay attention to Trump's truth social posts in the upcoming week which he will declare a ceasefire including the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
2025-10-07 17:03:25
Surprised that this is undervalued. Why GPT puts it near 50% is Putin in Beijing said he was seriously considering it - he would use the Malaysia visit to expand alliances and counter Western isolation, and build diplomacy and defense partnerships, especially with increased scrutiny over the Ukraine war.
2025-10-07 17:07:32
Xi went to Malaysia once this year in April 2025, however this October Xi is using his delegates instead to do this - we could see Putin going this October as he hasn't done so in Malaysia yet this year.
2025-10-07 23:40:33
I could see Hamas going through the first phases where the ceasefire happens but they release a noticeable amount of hostages but not all.
2025-10-08 05:15:24
Axios direct talk Hamas news??? October 10 sprinkle potential yes??? Trump says that the next 48 hours of the talks with Kushner, Witkoff, and the Qatar delgations are crucial. [link removed]
2025-10-08 05:20:09
Now there is a possibility the deal might be reached a day after October 10 but given both US and Qatar delegations are both here already it means that either the talks are going VERY good or VERY bad.
2025-10-08 05:31:18
Now if US and Qatar wasn't this involved then we might not see the ceasefire even up to December. Trump said to Netanyahu when Netanyahu was trying to claim that Hamas accepting the 20 pt peace plan is bad - "You're always so f*cking negative. This is a win."
2025-10-08 16:32:04
https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire/will-israel-first-announce-ceasefire-on-october-11?tid=1759938083822 The deal is either gonna happen in the 10th or the 11th. If anyone wants to high risk bet - 10th is 15% while 11th is 10% odds.
2025-10-08 17:26:30
Oct 10 is a major gamble - one thing that goes even slightly wrong i.e. Israelis delaying the vote or the timetable disagreement or the borders and the deal could go a day or two after the 10th.
2025-10-08 17:55:24
Hamas is expected to release all Israeli living hostages but are saying they are not able to guarantee all dead hostages. The second point is moot, as the qualifying is that all Israeli hostages are rescued.
2025-10-08 18:05:39
Israelis value living hostages returned much higher than dead hostages that is pressured by their own protestors. If there is ambiguity over whether all living hostages have been released, official Israeli statements will be used as the primary resolution source.
2025-10-08 18:06:42
Requirement per qualifying: Hamas releases all living Israeli hostages held in Gaza
2025-10-08 18:11:06
https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire?tid=1759946953343 Exactly October 10th is 37% now if you are looking at the other market. Earlier than October 10th is around 10%. Friday morning is the deadline in which both parties would make a deal, as per Sky News sources.
2025-10-08 18:25:25
14:02 EST - Sky News: Israeli officials believe a peace deal will be agreed within the next 24 to 36 hours, according to a report. Amit Segal, chief political analyst at Israeli broadcaster N12 News, said it came after Hamas provided information about the 20 living hostages it still holds. He said Hamas was searching for all the bodies of the dead hostages, and that Israel was committed to releasing Palestinian prisoners once the group confirmed all the hostages in its possession. Segal said Israeli forces would withdraw to the borders of the plan outlined by Donald Trump, but there could be "minor cosmetic adjustments". He added that Benjamin Netanyahu's government had already started drafting a proposal that would be brought to a vote as soon as possible. 'First phase' could be signed tomorrow The "first phase" of Donald Trump's peace plan could be signed as early tomorrow, a source briefed on the talks told The Times of Israel. The source added that mediators were planning for an agreement that would see the immediate release of the remaining living hostages in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.
2025-10-08 21:28:13
BREAKING: Donald Trump has ended his Q&A with reporters after being handed a note by US secretary of state Marco Rubio. The note asked for the US president's approval for a post on his Truth Social website "soon so you can announce deal first". Its contents were revealed in an image captured by a photographer for the Associated Press news agency.
2025-10-08 21:29:40
[link removed]
2025-10-09 04:17:52
Note that even if it is a draw between Trump and another party it will resolve to Yes.
2025-10-09 04:18:59
https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?tid=1759983480478 The other market if it is a draw then No is possible.
2025-10-09 04:24:09
There is possibility in which this market will resolve Yes but the other peace market will resolve No in which to reduce unnecessary risk you would move your No to the other market.
2025-10-09 23:49:13
What was if there was any news that justifies Maria's price? It is foreign interference to give an opposition leader the prize.
2025-10-10 00:09:27
6749 put "No" for Sudan at already very bad value. He must be convinced that Machado already won. I still have doubts but more often than not this happens.
2025-10-10 00:39:57
If you buy Trump then buy it in the Gold icon not here - if Trump draws with a third party then Trump would register as Yes
2025-10-10 21:44:21
I'm actually glad the 100% tariffs happened now instead right prior to the South Korea visit. US believes they are in a state of leverage in negotiating power. Gives time in which China would reach out to Trump if any to reduce or delay the extra tariffs and export controls the US would put.
2025-10-14 06:13:35
Welp ended up potentially selling the Yes shares. I couldn't find a website in which China confirms Trump's meeting, and then China's recent sanctions in US South Korean Shipbuilder is more than sufficient scrutiny of this meeting not happening at all
2025-10-14 06:15:30
The meeting might still happen but there is a lot of variance that this should not be priced at 70
2025-10-17 16:23:37
Very suspicious price movement here. Even the people with Yes shares are FUDing with negative news. There is a lot of fake news going on - this is a toss up.
2025-10-17 16:33:16
Idk how the price is above 20 cents unless there is some insider going on.
2025-10-17 19:56:50
This is potentially a good hedge spot - Car says Yes - he has his limit sell at 80. To see if it is this month or next month will be dependent on how long Rubio and US advisor's discussion of economic and Tomahawk factors with Russia is, and if EU countries are willing to allow flyspace for Putin to go to Hungary..
2025-10-17 20:26:49
Now I'm not gonna touch this but buy low, sell high is most of the time something to think about.
2025-10-18 16:54:35
In the other market "Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country"? Another EU country is 80% (Hungary), Other is 10% (Malaysia). Putin's visit to Malaysia is unconfirmed however his aides i.e. Lavrov are 100% going there at 26th-28th. Trump as well. There might be a handshake, greeting, or group photo that might happen. Just something to take note.
2025-10-19 01:48:43
Great opportunity to hedge this alongside disarming market. In which one of the two markets will hit but not both. If the ceasefire would last until December, then Hamas will disarm successfully.
2025-10-19 01:51:09
Gaza killing their own civilians however it is not Israelis directly involved. I see Trump and Netanyahu letting this bullshit last a bit until they reattack Gaza probably this November.
2025-10-19 01:56:19
Israelis will take all of Gaza is more likely than this happening.
2025-10-19 15:50:05
I'm avoiding this but its an opportunity for you to flip liquidity. At the moment Israelis and Hamas are attacking each other, they haven't officially announced cancellation yet however it feels like the announcement may be imminent and Israeli may start to reoccupy all of Hamas if it escalates further.
2025-10-19 15:56:31
If you guys hedge you would still win, just ringing a bell that Israeli and Hamas tensions are at the highest now compared to previously. Western news are starting to speculate about ceasefire is cancelled, it hasn't been broken at the moment but it feels imminent in the upcoming days.
2025-10-19 16:19:52
Propose?
2025-10-19 18:03:44
Absolute disaster. Zelensky asks Trump to go hard on Putin, however Trump does the complete opposite, demanding Zelensky surrender the entire Donbas to Russia.
2025-10-21 02:14:31
Request - add Nov 8 and Nov 15 in here as well as the Hungary market
2025-10-22 01:11:54
Now what if someone got falsely arrested for robbery just to save face however they are released???
2025-10-23 20:31:42
This is just a training session for the US bombers. We expect NO to happen from October up to mid Nov, but YES to happen from late Nov - December.
2025-10-23 20:39:49
This market reeks of scam. The public and everyone knows that Hamas won't disarm. However Hamas could blatantly say they will disarm just to get the world on their side but they will then do the complete opposite.
2025-10-24 00:15:31
There is no news but the price jumped 10% in the previous few hours???
2025-10-25 17:54:22
Its a beta version and not a production, since the 20th Elon says its been postponed to next week aka 27th is the expected release time.
2025-10-25 19:14:12
Barring another promotion shock such as Dave's Hot Chicken, I recommend you rely in fundamentals to decide this market.
2025-10-25 21:11:00
Is it possible to add a Nov 15 and Nov 30 market???
2025-10-25 22:06:36
2 questions: What role was the insider doing, was he providing the location of the jewels to the robbers or was he a getaway person? Did he escape or is he still working in the museum to avoid suspicion?
2025-10-26 23:16:05
Katy Perry would be the likely person to post a social media relationship but not Trudeau - she has a reputation of teasing Trudeau earlier this month in the London event, and now with the Public relationship in Paris it is a matter of time.
2025-10-31 00:07:55
uh oh we might get some last minute bullshit - Sora announced no invite code needed for a limited time in US, Canada, Japan or South Korea.
2025-11-02 21:23:33
Source?
2025-11-04 05:02:15
There are less than 2 months remaining. Even if Trump makes multiple shit decisions there are enough Trump supporters to delay the 40% until next year.
2025-11-10 01:58:17
They would also need to pass the House and who knows what political delays might happen.
2025-11-10 02:00:14
This is closer than expected. If its 59-41 it could screw us in which 16+ is Y.
2025-11-10 02:04:41
ahahahahahahaha if one more ABSTAINS or presses No were all fucked! its the 16th!
2025-11-10 02:06:57
its not passing the senate - they need 60 Yes - they should just fix filibuster
2025-11-10 02:11:20
ahahahaha literally fake news again - last time they said 14 democrats had Yes support it didn't pass the senate now 10 and its not passing either! FAKE NEWS screwing us once again
2025-11-10 02:36:56
This bill might not pass at all! 56-40, if one does not vote it is fucked! The last time it was 53-43!
2025-11-16 03:13:10
Venezuela is now without power - however we have no idea yet who attacked the transmission towers. Maduro himself? or incompetent workers? or US missile?
2025-11-16 03:23:23
Its probably Maduro sabotaging his own people, he knows he is going down and he is a terrorist.
2025-11-16 17:15:00
Yes the website is broken but if you see past markets like Grokpedia they fix it in much less than a week and their main website is up quickly.
2025-11-16 17:21:19
Its a fucking website not an app, all it takes is 10 lines of code lmao!
2025-11-22 00:30:30
Unfortunately Zelensky is stuck in a lose lose situation regardless of which decision he makes. Accept this shit Putin filled proposal with shaky security guarantees or risk potentially losing all of Ukraine if the US pulls all its aid.
2025-11-25 00:09:47
There might be the rare vegas situation where this military engagement will fail but Maudro out will hit if Trump and Maduro negotiate an exit deal, fucking all of us!
2025-11-25 00:18:01
There might be the rare bullshit situation where this military engagement will fail but Maudro out will hit if Trump and Maduro negotiate an exit deal, fucking all of us - Maduro security guarantee, 50m bounties removed in exchange for him stepping down.
2025-11-28 16:39:05
for you gamblers, there is historical precedent that bombs have flown from the US from 3 days of the "very soon" announcement yesterday. An example is the bombing of Iran, warning in June 19, bombs in June 21-22.
2025-11-28 16:49:25
NOT happening. There may be intentions to try to pressure Ukraine however Trump would be hanged if he goes through with this.
2025-12-01 01:43:10
News to watch: Mon Dec 1 at 7pm ET - Fed emergency meeting / Powell interest rate decision Dec 9-10 / Anytime in December: Trump announcing potential new fed
2025-12-01 01:44:18
0xNobler in twitter claims that during the Fed emergency meeting tomorrow he will resign however I believe that is 99% fake news until we actually see it.
2025-12-01 06:00:08
Speech at 8pm. 0xNobler's tweet made the crypto drop huge today - it looks like the expectations are not good.
2026-02-14 00:00:30
Logan preys on kids. He scammed investors in which he claimed shares of the illustrator card. Not only that, he promotes his fake ass PSA 10 that looks worse than a PSA 3.
2026-02-14 00:19:12
A normal auction would not randomly stall for a month, its like everyone knows that this illustrator card is written in blood. It should be worth 500 dollars max!
2026-02-14 08:33:42
Eyeballing it per hour would bet your best bet - it will flip multiple times. A lot of ppl have hedged for this reason. In Excel sheet - Day 1-5 - 48m, 64.5m, 74m, 82m, 88.5m - weekend may slow down the decay but there is a lot of variables.
2026-02-14 22:22:36
Not necessarily. Weekend decays but less in compared to weekdays. Yesterday at 12am was 88.35m. So if today at midnight is below 94m, then No is a lock. If over 95m, then Yes is a lock. If in between then avoid.
2026-02-15 08:17:54
Now as much as I despite Logan for what he does, the celebrity effect goes both ways. Mid-auction, Logan rejected a 10.2 million private offer from Emmie Bunni in regarding the illustrator card. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a mutual agreement to hold off bids until the last hour, and/or if it goes 3-10x the fundamental value.
2026-02-15 19:01:24
Logan confirmed the 10.2 offer was real, BUT the fake part was where Emmie had an AI-generated photo of herself WEARING his illustrator necklace. Logan apparently did not like this.
2026-02-16 01:57:46
Have fun! Logan's stream is up in Youtube - watch?v=ZLoaVZ4B6kE
2026-02-16 02:04:50
Wouldn't be surprised if some retard from Japan slams 20 mil. But it is what it is.
2026-02-16 02:59:43
Fix the goldin website the auction is crashing every few min!
2026-02-16 03:03:34
???????????????? Wtf is happening ???????????????
2026-02-16 03:07:17
Wow i am dumbfounded, jaw dropping this is like some crypto shit
2026-02-21 06:28:04
I swear Jokic gambles in every game he plays. He does better in a B2B than the first game back in all star break. Even in his horrible games he flops like a fish he still gets 45 PRA.
2026-02-21 06:36:06
Hedge opportunity - polymarket .com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-march-31
2026-03-08 16:52:11
Overvalued alert! Its the weekend, oil price is closed now and still not much news and you are thinking it will break records! The last time it broke 130 it took MONTHS and it only happened once in 30 years! Idiots!
2026-03-08 18:41:59
They should add an oil market that is week by week similar to ETH and bitcoin.
2026-03-08 22:14:32
The world is fucked omg omg omg what is happening
2026-03-09 17:31:55
This is what happens if you bet with emotion then you get screwed! Price is gonna dip a bit more! They delayed the G7 oil release announcement for tomorrow.
2026-03-09 17:58:43
lol i've give him a medal if he survives Mossad operations for 2 weeks
2026-03-09 22:13:40
Hope yall learned your lesson in a 35 dollar swing
2026-03-11 17:05:26
Under 80 free money with the IEA releasing 400m barrels of oil
2026-03-15 02:50:44
Literally ppl overreacting both up and down despite not any price movement! The 2 dollar increase in the 18th afterwards is a 5% delta. Otherwise, you should react to real data and not projected data.
2026-03-15 03:00:51
And market is literally gonna open tomorrow night, why is March 16 betting odds not there yet? Last week there were options.
2026-03-23 17:06:55
Iran is planning on making a deal and Trump is TACOing, resulting in oil falling below 90 dollars today. š®š®š®
2026-04-08 00:15:21
Oil futures just fell by 20 dollars due to Iran agreeing to the ceasefire, which would flatten out the inflation in the future
2026-04-08 00:16:43
Please add new market where how long the ceasefire would last
2026-04-08 04:57:46
Rate cut looks like it will happen in June due to the ceasefire, however question we would see if the Hormuz is back to normal and how many ships are willing to pay in exchange
2026-04-12 01:44:01
Damn JD Vance was direct af yet he is also a dumfuck.
2026-04-14 07:34:53
There is a real possibility of rate cut happening. 178k job numbers in March would show strength in economy which encourages further relaxing in rates.
2026-04-30 23:50:51
New oil market if WTI reaches all time high or not popped up if anyone is looking for it
2026-05-04 01:19:35
Please add May 15
2026-05-04 01:21:04
well there you have it every home team wins in raptors vs cavs what a surprise
2026-05-09 01:10:16
Job report is double above expectation again, economy is booming, and s&p is at its record high! Too late Powell should guide Warsh to do rate cuts!
2026-05-14 00:15:46
September popped up again but what happened to the liquidity? Wasn't this old and not a new market?
2026-05-22 21:18:38
Very sus. Trump cancelling his son's wedding and oil seeping upward right prior to close.
2026-05-24 17:04:27
Did something collapse? Did Trump TACO his own TACO?
2026-05-27 22:28:55
3 days left and PERMANENT peace deal is still very high, yeah Iran would definitely accept the US demands its not completely in biased!
2026-06-05 21:30:01
Job numbers much stronger than expected would make Bitcoin still undervalued, expecting a huge bounce back.
2026-06-07 01:39:56
Called it the rebound is happening now! Bitcoin ššš
2026-06-07 01:42:53
ETH ššš! Next 2 weeks would be very important though. Data-heavy macro and the first meeting and SEP with the new Fed Chair. We will see what happens.
2026-06-07 19:53:35
Iran striking Israel!!! Uh oh
2026-06-08 00:40:02
Bitcoin spiking 5% in a day, outperforming S&P 500 and oil with Trump pressuring the Fed to do rate cuts! Buy more bitcoin it is literally better than gold!ššš
2026-06-09 15:42:11
Ouch! 50 day SMA broke but we have 3 macro prints upcoming, CPI, PPI, ECB projections. Plus the Fed is blackout, we don't know how they would react until the SEP meeting.
2026-06-09 17:05:21
Look at Trump's most recent tweet
2026-06-09 17:06:11
Look at Trump's truth social tweet recently
2026-06-10 20:51:48
CPI showed that the although expectations was high, it was matched. Bitcoin remains a superior asset, showing positive resillence to tightening fears while the S&P fared worse. Part of the focus would shift to the Iran war, where per Axios in sources, Mr. President Trump recently held a situation room meeting.
2026-06-13 17:15:09
If Iran and US sign different peace deals tomorrow it still counts YES
2026-06-14 21:19:42
Trump plans to issue a statement imminently confirming that the US has agreed to a deal with Iran, he has told The Wall Street Journal.
Trump said this deal, which Iran hasnāt yet confirmed it would agree to, will either be signed electronically by himself or Vice President JD Vance, according to the report.
2026-06-14 21:23:18
btw if US signs it but Iran does not as long as US claims that Iran did then this will go YES
2026-06-14 22:05:00
They're waiting for Iran to confirm it then it goes 100%
2026-06-15 19:47:12
A reminder to read the rules! Announcement is sufficient even if what is happening in the ground does not match.
2026-06-16 03:58:32
Warsh is given a positive backdrop with strength in markets, high economic demand, and an employment boom as the Iran war simmers down alongside the 2 year yield stabilizing, giving him the opportunity to fix TOO LATE POWELL's decisions and start rate cuts!
2026-06-16 04:00:54
Gamble time! Warsh says he will fix TOO LATE POWELL's mistakes. In what way, we don't know...
2026-06-16 16:36:31
CUT RATES NOW! The USD should be weaker! Don't be Powell who is shit at his job...
2026-06-17 23:25:40
How are markets that hard to please??? Warsh defers his decision making for the rest of the Fed - stock crash.
2026-06-18 04:36:44
Without forward guidance, Fed comments in the board would be more crucial than ever in determining the future of bitcoin. 2nd, checking to see if the Hormuz strait is actually open.
2026-06-20 02:09:05
Tomorrow it is 100% Yes - Barak Ravid - Abbas Araghchi is planning to travel to Switzerland on Saturday, according to a source with knowledge.
2026-06-20 16:59:11
Sunday will be 100% Yes. Iran delegation coming still not today but they will tomorrow.
2026-06-20 20:06:35
Truth social: There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT
2026-06-20 21:01:41
There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT
2026-06-20 21:05:50
Wtf is Trump doing, he has to know that reserves will go out in 3 weeks. Producers would refuse to sell and we would have an oil disaster. You can't wait even close to 60 days.
2026-06-20 22:57:08
Truth social: There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT
2026-06-20 22:58:47
This is bearish - Trump insisting that he does not like tolls and he would rather have the US grab the fees instead of Iran.
2026-06-21 01:01:13
Really O 1.5 is juiced with extremely horrible first half?
2026-06-21 01:03:19
They need to add more dates
2026-06-21 01:04:19
Maybe if US abandons Israel, they will withdraw
2026-06-21 01:11:33
Already a lot of speculation without much news. The Fed Board is able to make remarks throughout this week and even next month, how the market and you interpret it is in the air. š¤·āāļø
2026-06-21 19:54:56
Add July / September / December
2026-06-21 19:59:41
The first hike is the most difficult to price. The Fed did it in 2018 where they fear demand overheat where inflation was just 2.5%, and 2023 at 8-9% inflation where they dismissed it as transitory. Now we get somewhere in the middle where inflation is mid-high ish but we have a boom at the same time.
2026-06-23 04:26:59
Nah not happening. US will definitely abandon Israeli if they start attack in Iran.
2026-06-28 15:41:39
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-28 15:44:45
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-28 15:47:22
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-28 15:50:58
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-28 16:40:11
Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-28 16:40:58
Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," - Fars. š®š®š®
2026-06-29 00:57:02
Guys sell your YES shares its over. Doha talks in 2 days however they will talk about FREE PASSAGE and not about nuclear or fee.
2026-06-29 23:48:45
yoo they should make a new market if LISA COOK would be fired
2026-07-01 01:30:38
Maybe 3 weeks from now since Iran has strict requirements of the MOU like Lebanon
2026-07-01 01:31:32
Iran attack a ship in the Hormuz in the weekend, then blockade? How many attacks?
2026-07-01 01:38:26
Warsh press remarks in Portugal, tomorrow live stream in C-SPAN, there is an opportunity to grab a fan photo of him, gl folks
2026-07-01 01:39:57
Warsh press remarks in Portugal, tomorrow live stream in C-SPAN, there is an opportunity to grab a fan photo of him, gl folks
2026-07-01 01:44:14
Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! Theyāre too high considering that Oil is now at $68-70 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right ā DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE! There will be no gauging, which is totally illegal. If Retailers donāt do this, big problems lie ahead! President DONALD J. TRUMP
2026-07-01 01:59:27
Add July?
2026-07-01 15:57:53
Kal-shi - NYT - Warsh says the supply shock has faded which means it shifts to tackling structural inflation. ADP jobs show slightly lower than expected, giving expectations that the BLS employment print tomorrow may be recessionary.
2026-07-02 21:49:47
Labor market worsened with an uncomfortable balance with half of its expected payrolls despite stable unemployment. A low hiring and low firing balance. Inflation print would have to shock to bring rate hikes in the table, otherwise moving rates would risk stagflation.
2026-07-03 18:26:23
Doha and Barak is fake news this is easy NO guys
2026-07-05 00:57:25
There is an Iran targeting shipping market if you want more liquidity. High correlation in relation to this impacting the Hormuz returning to normal.
2026-07-05 01:00:29
Macro events happening way close in Nov have more impact than early 2026
2026-07-05 01:02:01
Recency bias is a key element why the vote is split now but won't be in the future
2026-07-05 03:35:14
add this after the polymarket url - event/iran-successfully-targets-shipping-onptptpt-20260625225210236
2026-07-05 23:08:29
They need to add a July 11 date
2026-07-06 17:15:14
Like all other releases it is best to react to actual data and not expectations. There has been whipsaws in the past. FOMC minutes - 2:00 pm
2026-07-07 02:56:50
From Chris Haynes post r/nba, there is a huge possibility that Lebron has already decided but is delaying it for extra drama. Not saying which team it is but he did it in his previous trades as well
2026-07-07 03:00:43
3 days left maybe Khamenei pops up at the last day of the funeral
2026-07-07 03:03:10
Gg Lebanon is much easier to approach than Hezbollah
2026-07-07 03:04:06
Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT
2026-07-07 03:07:56
The reason why Argentina is low % is their recent form has a lot of question marks. A easy bracket does not matter if they play like shit. -800 odds in vs Cape Verde where they struggled and almost lost, requiring extra time.
2026-07-07 03:52:38
Surprisingly Barak Ravid did say this is true however Iran not yet
2026-07-07 18:13:20
rigged for Argentina the ref is very biased
2026-07-07 19:30:32
Djokovic is gonna make the semi just to lose to Sinner
2026-07-07 21:38:18
Switzerland vs columbia is worst game to watch. If it end 0-0 after 120 minutes they should both be eliminated
2026-07-07 23:01:32
Oh shit it looks like part of the drift is due to the US strikes adding questions to whether inflation is transitory or not. There's gonna be a better entry for no change i'm guessing it may be in the mid 70's that is where you buy the dip.
2026-07-08 04:02:32
I partially agree that it is overpriced, too many ppl focus in expectations. Kal-shi is 17.5%, although tomorrow is a swing event. If minutes are dovish or ask for extended hold then odds go down. If minutes show they drop employment language or allude they don't do enough to reach 2% then odds go up.
2026-07-08 05:35:15
Opportunity to arb with Kal-shi. Same for the World Cup winner market.
2026-07-08 05:39:22
Trump would give up major in concessions right prior to midterms, even if it is worse than the Obama deal.
2026-07-08 16:00:12
Fed meeting minutes - whipsaw risk - 2 hours from now
2026-07-08 18:31:36
Fed minutes provided minimal surprise however a hawkish baseline as expected, providing little reaction. However emphasis on optimism is in the text, where the determining factor may be geopolitics.
2026-07-08 20:02:49
July 15 overpriced vs 31. US striked Iran yesterday and they didn't close it, and TACO risk is high.
2026-07-08 20:05:27
Iran will destroy Kharg Island if US tries to occupy it.
2026-07-08 23:18:19
It doesn't matter how many times US attacks Iran they will not fully shut their airspace. Sell your YES its over guys.
2026-07-08 23:25:40
If I put wager now in rates it wouldn't be the same as tomorrow. But Warsh is much quicker to react than Pow I would give you this advice.
2026-07-09 02:40:26
Iran would be economic terrorist if they dual shut off strait. But at least the good side is there would be a new market similar in Hormuz returning to normal.
2026-07-10 22:59:25
Guys this is your last opportunity to sell your YES. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-10 23:12:16
Guys this is your last opportunity to sell your YES. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-10 23:13:56
Well tomorrow is the flipping point possibly. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-11 00:03:49
Last opportunity to sell YES. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-11 00:04:22
Last opportunity to sell YES. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-11 00:11:18
Underrated odds here. US is demanding the easiest demand for Iran to apologize for actions in Hormuz. Once this happens, there will be more talks and less bombs.
2026-07-11 02:22:27
If Trump does this his voter approval ratings will go down like minus 100. Very unlikely.
2026-07-11 22:42:23
Suspicious hyperliuq wicket from 71 to 74 with a volume of 3 in WTI oil was recent in the weekend. Something is happening.
2026-07-12 02:45:38
well we have iran successfully sinking a ship! wow! reddit - /r/oil/comments/1uu2mbk/ukmto_now_reports_crew_of_struck_container_ship/
2026-07-12 03:18:13
if us surrendered and allowed the toll then we wouldn't have this mess
2026-07-13 16:15:07
Truth social - The USA will be, from this point forward, known as THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS will receive tolls, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped (~35M/ship), for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. President DONALD J. TRUMP š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-13 16:17:15
Truth social - The USA will be, from this point forward, known as THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS will receive tolls, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped (~35M/ship), for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. President DONALD J. TRUMP š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-13 16:20:16
Truth social - The USA will be, from this point forward, known as THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS will receive tolls, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped (~35M/ship), for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. President DONALD J. TRUMP š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-13 18:56:05
Now what happens if there is a TRUTH SOCIAL POST that declares Kharg under control in US but Iran denies it?
2026-07-14 15:33:10
Soft CPI print means we might have our first rate cut of the year by Warsh!
2026-07-14 18:15:08
Fun fact: Delivery date is July 21. As it approaches physical traders would start to enter the market and leveraged traders would exit in order to avoid defaulting. Some weird things might happen.
2026-07-14 21:03:37
Mbappe is cooked, he has 1 game left and he laid a goose egg while Messi has 2 opportunities to score.
2026-07-15 00:12:32
The Hormuz Letter is heavy propaganda and biased, need Reuters or any US or European source
2026-07-15 00:18:17
Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it
2026-07-15 05:21:37
Iran will not allow this to happen. This is the same as if a tactical nuke was placed in Kharg.
2026-07-15 18:32:20
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cut is in the table.
2026-07-15 18:35:33
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. HIkes pushed to December while cut is in the table.
2026-07-15 18:38:14
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
2026-07-15 19:10:18
Messi's probability is gonna start high and slowly dip unless a goal is scored. Winning or losing has nothing to do it is whether if he scores or not.
2026-07-15 19:29:09
Ooo possibly more friction in negotiations - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
2026-07-15 19:31:06
Maybe if the allocation is given then the deal will happen! Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
2026-07-15 19:41:28
CNN, NYT, NBC fake news - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries. š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-15 19:51:58
CNN, NYT, NBC fake news - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries. š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-15 19:52:43
CNN, NYT, NBC fake news - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries. š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-15 19:57:32
Nvidia with its RTX Spark release, we will see if it is a boom or not
2026-07-15 20:00:50
If Argentina England would go 0-0 they both should be eliminated like horrible match
2026-07-15 22:13:51
Messi passed both goals thus he is 1 ahead in assists for the tiebreaker
2026-07-16 01:14:48
Good luck making Kharg hostage. Iran will surrender and accept every demand if US succeeds. US will fail.
2026-07-16 01:59:18
Good luck making Kharg hostage. Iran will surrender and accept every demand if US succeeds. US will fail.
2026-07-17 00:19:59
State of the union: 1 hour from now
2026-07-17 00:30:01
X tweet in Hormuz Letter
2026-07-17 00:33:50
Trump speech to the nation in 20 ish mins
2026-07-17 01:39:05
Trump speech was a nothing burger. Voter fraud! zzz he barely discussed Iran
2026-07-17 01:40:22
Trump speech was a nothing burger. Voter fraud! zzz he barely discussed Iran
2026-07-17 01:40:32
Trump speech was a nothing burger. Voter fraud! zzz he barely discussed Iran
2026-07-17 15:55:48
Neutral voters lean in supporting Trump to finish the job, no matter the cost. Iran just hit a desalination plant in Kuwait.
2026-07-17 16:03:37
The perception that Iran is behaving or arguably worse than ISIS is here.
2026-07-17 16:05:58
Voters lean for Trump to finish the job. Perception increased that Iran is arguably worse than ISIS after they hit Kuwait's desalination plant.
2026-07-17 16:07:05
Voters lean for Trump to finish the job. Perception increased that Iran is arguably worse than ISIS after they hit Kuwait's desalination plant.
2026-07-18 01:59:57
Lebron would announce it probably right after World cup final.
2026-07-18 16:23:42
Mbappe -190 to score 1 vs England, -290 to score or assist, +190 to have in combination of 2 goal or assists
2026-07-18 16:27:45
This might be a rare exception where Messi wins the Golden Ball but Mbappe wins the Golden Boot
2026-07-18 16:31:12
There is a good probability that there will be a few dissents.
2026-07-18 19:03:39
Reuters - Two US service members in Jordan killed in Iranian attack, US says - Finish the job! Iran = ISIS
2026-07-18 19:04:26
Two US service members in Jordan killed in Iranian attack, US says - Finish the job! Iran = ISIS
2026-07-18 21:38:30
Time to wrap it up France 0-3 in 37 mins š¤£š¤£š¤£ Why wasn't England favored?? They look 10x better
2026-07-19 19:35:33
We dare Trump to take over Kharg. Oil might spike to 99 for a short time but it will come down crashing to 70 once Iran does real surrender!
2026-07-20 18:39:00
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
2026-07-20 18:40:00
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
2026-07-20 18:43:33
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
2026-07-20 18:43:46
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
2026-07-21 14:57:29
They should make a new market in relation to the balance sheet and when they will start QT.
2026-07-21 18:47:00
Bitcoin gonna crash the moment Fed does a surprise hike or hawk hold but stop QE, start QT
2026-07-22 01:35:33
Wow look at Miami in Kal-shi it pumped today and dumped today and now its another pump
2026-07-22 02:33:31
US has agreed Saudi Arabia is allowed to enrich uranium, per WSJ. This makes the Iran no nuclear weapons more improbable to accept. There might be a 10 day pause or a few day pause but not a 2 week pause.
2026-07-22 03:01:59
Miami leaked the video and unlisted it. But the Youtube channel was Miami Heat not MiamiHEAT. Still bullish though.
2026-07-22 05:44:53
Houthi ISIS terrorists have threatened to target Saudi Arabia ships but not yet other countries. Even if they follow through that is likely more than 10 ships that would pass in. Also 3 more days until July is free bond N.
2026-07-22 05:56:41
This weekend
2026-07-22 16:18:36
Trump gonna throw huge tantrum in Truth Social the moment he sees Warsh hiking! š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-22 20:45:30
Trump will TACO if he sees the crash in stock market. But right now we have a weird situation where oil and s&p 500 are both rising, like the market is supportive of the strikes. A lot of time to finish the job it seems.
2026-07-22 23:02:40
Oof US is gonna try to defend the Red Sea too - Houthis said that they ācarried out a qualitative military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers that violated the blockadeā, naming the vessels as the Encelia and the Layla.
2026-07-24 16:13:28
Oil dropped $3 in Friday after Iran is possibly TACOing - Pakistan, with support from China, was seeking to revive negotiations between the US and Iran, US thanked China for not intervening in Iran
2026-07-25 17:05:02
Pakistan floated a 10-day truce between ISIS-led Iran and US aimed at halting hostilities and restoring the previous interim agreement, with conditions that ISIS-led Iran restores freedom of navigation
2026-07-25 17:14:43
This would probably be enough for the Fed to signal September hike. July is too early.
2026-07-26 05:12:27
YNETNEWS, WSJ NEWS: TRUMP HOLDS OFF IRAN ESCALATION AFTER PENTAGON WARNS OF INTERCEPTOR SHORTAGE - ADVISORS WARNED TRUMP HEAVIER FIGHTING COULD DRAIN PATRIOT STOCKS TO NEAR NULL
2026-07-26 05:16:09
YNETNEWS, WSJ NEWS: TRUMP HOLDS OFF IRAN ESCALATION AFTER PENTAGON WARNS OF INTERCEPTOR SHORTAGE - ADVISORS WARNED TRUMP HEAVIER FIGHTING COULD DRAIN PATRIOT STOCKS TO NEAR NULL
2026-07-26 05:16:41
BULLISH FOR POSSIBLE US CEASEFIRE, US WILLING TO GIVE CONCESSIONS LIKE NUCLEAR LENIENCY OR TOLL STRAITS
2026-07-26 05:19:28
YNETNEWS, WSJ NEWS: TRUMP HOLDS OFF IRAN ESCALATION AFTER PENTAGON WARNS OF INTERCEPTOR SHORTAGE - ADVISORS WARNED TRUMP HEAVIER FIGHTING COULD DRAIN PATRIOT STOCKS TO NEAR NULL
2026-07-26 05:20:14
YNETNEWS, WSJ NEWS: TRUMP HOLDS OFF IRAN ESCALATION AFTER PENTAGON WARNS OF INTERCEPTOR SHORTAGE - ADVISORS WARNED TRUMP HEAVIER FIGHTING COULD DRAIN PATRIOT STOCKS TO NEAR NULL
2026-07-26 07:06:22
Al-Jazeera - 10 mins ago - Iranian parliamentary committees reviewing draft law on Hormuz, possible adjustments in whether freedom of navigation or conditions yet to be determined
2026-07-26 16:00:21
ALJAZEERA, UKMTO: IRAN TESTING US WEAKNESS AND SURRENDER BY SHIP HITTING A MINE IN HORMUZ 3 HOURS AGO, UNKNOWN PROJECTILE HIT SHIP IN RED SEA
2026-07-26 16:06:10
ALJAZEERA, UKMTO: IRAN TESTING US WEAKNESS AND SURRENDER BY SHIP HITTING A MINE IN HORMUZ 3 HOURS AGO, UNKNOWN PROJECTILE HIT SHIP IN RED SEA - US POSSIBLY WILLING TO GIVE TOLL CONCESSIONS
2026-07-26 16:12:58
ALJAZEERA, UKMTO: IRAN TESTING US WEAKNESS AND SURRENDER BY SHIP HITTING A MINE IN HORMUZ 3 HOURS AGO, UNKNOWN PROJECTILE HIT SHIP IN RED SEA, US POSSIBLE WAVING WHITE FLAG IN ACCEPTING TOLL STRAIT
2026-07-26 19:41:20
REUTERS - RED SEA ATTACKS AND HORMUZ BLOCKADE STILL HAPPENING DESPITE US IRAN PAUSE RAISES PROSPECTS OF A 2022-LIKE STOCK MARKET GRIND. STAGFLATION RISKS RISE. RECESSION RULED OUT.
2026-07-26 20:03:24
Did you add links / URL's? Sometimes that does it automatically.
2026-07-26 20:07:28
Oh god. Look at truth social. Trump went in a posting spree about destroying Iran and possibly Kharg in the last hour.
2026-07-26 20:09:43
WTF LOOK AT TRUTH SOCIAL TRUMP IS POSTING RANDOM DESTROYING IRAN AND KHARG POSSIBILITIES
2026-07-27 19:32:06
CNBC: Trump backs āfantasticā Warsh while calling for lower rates and citing ābad intentionsā of other Fed officials
2026-07-28 02:55:30
August market - event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026
2026-07-28 02:55:57
They ought to add longer term dates like Sep and December if possible
2026-07-28 02:57:19
August oil market - event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026
2026-07-28 17:00:17
WTI OIL FUTURES DOWN 5% TO 78, US WAVING WHITE FLAG BY POSSIBLY ACCEPTING IRAN TOLLS, BEARISH
2026-07-28 21:29:24
Trump crash out in Truth social with stock market dump incoming if the Fed surprise hikes š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-28 23:45:33
Iran could nuke a ship and WTI would still fail 100. You would need an actual shortage or if suppliers are requesting bailouts, but that is worse case scenario and long shot possibility.
2026-07-28 23:49:56
Iran attacks US - US: Iran wants to make a deal very badly. Iran nukes US - US: Iran still wants to make a deal, look how desperate they are!
2026-07-28 23:51:54
Iran attacks US - US: Iran wants to make a deal very badly. Iran nukes US - US: Iran still wants to make a deal, look how desperate they are!
2026-07-28 23:53:25
Iran attacks US - US: Iran wants to make a deal very badly. Iran nukes US - US: Iran still wants to make a deal, look how desperate they are!
2026-07-28 23:54:32
Trump crash out in Truth social with stock market dump incoming if the Fed surprise hikes š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-07-28 23:58:38
I am Pakistani ship. Iran gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
2026-07-29 00:02:46
I am Pakistani ship. Iran gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
2026-07-29 01:57:51
He put both as a hedge. This is the most unpredictable.
2026-07-29 15:31:15
The base case is they will HAWK HOLD but SIGNAL SEPTEMBER HIKE amid the renewed conflict since the vote was already locked in yesterday.
2026-07-29 18:02:31
9-3 vote to hold, 3 dissents, hike priced in September but July too early!
2026-07-29 19:38:52
I am Pakistani ship. Houthi gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
2026-07-31 19:14:57
They ought to add a new market if Saudi invade Houthi by September or 2027
2026-07-31 19:17:33
They have WTI but why not Brent? IMO Brent should have been added at the start of the Iran war, and it has high interest since rest of world uses it.
2026-07-31 19:25:45
Stock market is about to close uh oh spicy things might or might not happen.
2026-08-01 01:56:16
US surrender in 3, 2, 1...
2026-08-01 01:56:29
US surrender in 3, 2, 1...
2026-08-01 01:57:59
US surrender in 3, 2, 1...
2026-08-01 17:38:24
Hormuz Letter, X: BREAKING: The US says Iran is likely behind coordinated cyberattacks on water systems in at least 7 US states since Monday, with some activity actively degrading water operations, per NYT.
2026-08-01 17:38:53
Hormuz Letter, X: BREAKING: The top U.S. general in Europe has directly warned the Pentagon in a written private notification that he no longer has enough Navy destroyers to keep protecting Israel from Iranian ballistic missile attacks, and will be forced to prioritize the United States homeland over Israel, per Gen. Alexus Grynkewich to WaPo.
2026-08-01 18:20:25
US surrender to Iran state in 3, 2, 1...
2026-08-01 18:21:40
Iran is allegedly doing cyberattack in US water facilities. Trump denies that they are running out of munitions but more and more US military are telling him this - Hormuz Letter, X.
2026-08-02 03:37:29
See? I told you US would TACO. Iran won't though, they get to put a dirty bomb in the US for free.
2026-08-02 03:50:36
TACO where US promised that Iran would reopen the strait
2026-08-02 03:52:53
Every time US would TACO it is a go ahead signal for Iran to do free attacks immediately in US bases or the Gulf without increasing oil prices.
2026-08-02 03:53:28
Every time US would TACO it is a go ahead signal for Iran to do free attacks immediately in US bases or the Gulf without increasing oil prices.
2026-08-02 05:17:33
He did it in order to knock down the oil prices
2026-08-02 22:20:57
HELP! I am a ship in the Omani coast that is struck! Trump says there are talks tomorrow, however Iran does not give a fuck!
2026-08-02 22:22:00
HELP! I am a ship in the Omani coast that is struck! Trump says there are talks tomorrow, however Iran does not give a fuck!
2026-08-03 18:35:32
This is a good opportunity to hedge this with the diplomatic meeting market
2026-08-04 02:10:53
VIDEO OF KUWAIT IN US BASE WAS BOMBED BY IRANIAN DRONES IN X SITE: HormuzLetter/status/2084438721772822756
2026-08-04 02:14:18
It is bearish due to US willing to surrender. There is also a high threshold that has to be reached before Houthi expands it to non-Saudi ships, and even then that won't settle 100% it would settle like 50 + 7-10% per each of the 7 days.
2026-08-04 04:13:15
Whoops! The video is very fake and AI-generated.
2026-08-05 00:05:29
If trump manages to make the oil hostage in kharg iran will quickly surrender! low cost, however it is already bearish since US is more willing to surrender in a deal.
2026-08-05 18:00:59
Bloomberg: New details on Hormuz deal between Iran & Oman, Iran is looking to charge fees between 5~7%, Oman 3% - that's an average of 5-10 million per hull of a ship!
2026-08-06 02:06:25
MS NOW: Rubio is pressuring Oman to accept Iran's terms of a 5-7% fee in the Hormuz which is equivalent to 8-15 million per ship
2026-08-06 02:06:39
MS NOW: Rubio is pressuring Oman to accept Iran's terms of a 5-7% fee in the Hormuz which is equivalent to 8-15 million per ship
2026-08-06 02:07:51
MS NOW: Rubio is pressuring Oman to accept Iran's terms of a 5-7% fee in the Hormuz which is equivalent to 8-15 million per ship
2026-08-07 05:10:54
Tomorrow job report is not very important unless surprise happens.
2026-08-07 15:43:01
In addition to the bad job report, they revised the June cooked numbers down. Low hire low fire but fragile economy. This is pre-stagflation, bad if Fed moves rates.
2026-08-07 15:43:48
In addition to the bad job report, they revised the June cooked numbers down. Low hire low fire but fragile economy. This is pre-stagflation, bad if Fed moves rates.
2026-08-07 19:14:23
Stock market closing, we might see something spicy or not, either US accept Iran tolls or rejects it.
2026-08-07 19:21:40
Stock market closing, we might see something spicy or not, either US accept Iran tolls or rejects it.
2026-08-07 19:21:57
Stock market closing, we might see something spicy or not, either US accept Iran tolls or rejects it.
2026-08-08 19:00:41
But does US really have a choice? Iran knows Reuters source that US missiles are probably low supply, and they are willing to extort the US. Iran knows that even a stalemate is good for themselves.
2026-08-10 00:09:25
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
2026-08-10 00:09:49
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
2026-08-10 00:09:59
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
2026-08-10 02:18:39
FYI it is already way past 12am Iranian time, Aug 9 is free bond.
2026-08-10 02:20:42
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
2026-08-10 02:21:34
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
2026-08-10 19:05:03
US export ban will send WTI falling like crazy however will ensure global recession.
2026-08-10 22:12:18
If yen crashes they have to fix the US dollar! US dollar way too high!
2026-08-10 22:16:15
X / Hormuz Letter - Mohammad Marandi Prof. and advisor to Iran negotiation team - Regime forces in Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan are mobilizing for a potential blitzkrieg, possibly alongside Zionist forces, against the Iranian people," warning "the Islamic Republic stands ready with a swift and crushing response." It is unclear if the next attack is US only, Israeli only, or a mix of both.
2026-08-11 19:20:53
New demands Iran had added in today to exploit the US: 100B release of frozen assets, 300B reparations, region-wide ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. Gulf states are starting to accept the reality of Iran controlling the strait.
2026-08-11 19:25:15
New demands Iran had added in today to exploit the US: 100B release of frozen assets, 300B reparations, region-wide ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. Gulf states are starting to accept the reality of Iran controlling the strait.
2026-08-11 19:48:39
New demands Iran had added in today to exploit the US: 100B release of frozen assets, 300B reparations, region-wide ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. Gulf states are starting to accept the reality of Iran controlling the strait.
2026-08-11 19:49:05
New demands Iran had added in today to exploit the US: 100B release of frozen assets, 300B reparations, region-wide ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. Gulf states are starting to accept the reality of Iran controlling the strait.
2026-08-11 22:38:34
US officials, EIA admit that oil disruptions from Iran war may be prolonged until late 2027, admitting that it could mirror Ukraine like stalemate.
2026-08-11 22:39:03
US officials, EIA admit that oil disruptions from Iran war may be prolonged until late 2027, admitting that it could mirror Ukraine like stalemate.
2026-08-12 02:32:04
CPI expectation YoY: 3.4%, core: 2.5%. Tomorrow is probably the most important print.
2026-08-13 03:36:42
X Hormuz Letter: Iran warns it is preparing for military operations on US soil following a ānew military doctrine tasking IRGC to attack enemy in its soil,ā - IRGC senior advisor Reza Naqdi says. This insinuates Iran either has undeclared ICBMs or is looking to start preemptive invasions in Gulf or Israel states.
2026-08-13 03:37:04
X Hormuz Letter: Iran warns it is preparing for military operations on US soil following a ānew military doctrine tasking IRGC to attack enemy in its soil,ā - IRGC senior advisor Reza Naqdi says. This insinuates Iran either has undeclared ICBMs or is looking to start preemptive invasions in Gulf or Israel states.
2026-08-13 03:43:47
X Hormuz Letter: Iran warns it is preparing for military operations on US soil following a ānew military doctrine tasking IRGC to attack enemy in its soil,ā - IRGC senior advisor Reza Naqdi says. This insinuates Iran either has undeclared ICBMs or is looking to start preemptive invasions in Gulf or Israel states.
2026-08-15 04:21:01
Questions about morale in US relative military would arise as sailors tried jumping off ship, experiencing horror conditions in the USS Abraham Lincoln.
2026-08-15 04:24:15
Questions about morale in US relative military would arise as sailors tried jumping off ship, experiencing horror conditions in the USS Abraham Lincoln.
2026-08-15 04:25:36
Questions about morale in US relative military would arise as sailors tried jumping off ship, experiencing horror conditions in the USS Abraham Lincoln.
2026-08-15 04:57:58
They ought to add Dec 31. European military action against Iran they ought to add Sep 30.
2026-08-16 23:13:55
They should add a new market if US would use NUKES in Iran. Anadolu Ajansi News: The Trump administration is actively discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings, per former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
2026-08-16 23:14:09
They should add a new market if US would use NUKES in Iran. Anadolu Ajansi News: The Trump administration is actively discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings, per former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
2026-08-16 23:17:08
They should add a new market if US would use NUKES in Iran. Anadolu Ajansi News: The Trump administration is actively discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings, per former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
2026-08-17 02:54:36
Reuters reports, citing ship tracking data from Kpler - 0 ships 8/16. Watch portwatch say that 1 ship passed!
2026-08-17 02:55:25
Reuters reports, citing ship tracking data from Kpler - 0 ships 8/16. Watch portwatch say that 1 ship passed!
2026-08-18 00:37:05
TACO in 3 hours from now? Right before Aug 17 finishes?
2026-08-18 00:37:28
TACO in 3 hours from now? Right before Aug 17 finishes?
2026-08-18 00:39:56
TACO in 3, 2, 1...
2026-08-18 04:23:22
rip guess MOU expired and US will indefinite blockade
2026-08-18 04:24:21
rip guess MOU expired and US will indefinite blockade
2026-08-18 16:04:30
Pack it up, time to sell the YES. - There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
2026-08-18 19:42:14
WASHINGTON POST: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been "battered by months of Iranian strikes", from 8 US officials. US surrendering? Oil going down?
2026-08-18 19:43:09
WASHINGTON POST: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been "battered by months of Iranian strikes", from 8 US officials. US surrendering? Prospects of deal is imminent?
2026-08-18 19:45:17
WASHINGTON POST: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been "battered by months of Iranian strikes", from 8 US officials. US surrendering? Peace deal soon?
2026-08-19 05:49:52
let's see how the US handles it if iran attacks gulf state. US is low in stockpiles.
2026-08-19 05:56:51
Oman is facing in US pressure to allow freedom of navigation instead of accepting the fee per ship
2026-08-19 18:37:14
I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!
2026-08-20 07:06:19
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washingtonās āunprecedented debt & surging interest costsā.
2026-08-20 07:23:36
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washingtonās āunprecedented debt & surging interest costsā.
2026-08-20 16:37:12
Actually, not bearish anymore. You could write Aug off but Sep/Dec idk. USS George Washington replacement just arrived. Look at Al-Jazeera for updates in US Iran relations.
2026-08-20 18:40:41
US Treasury Secretary Bessent acts surprised as to why Trump's "Economic D-Day" announcement didn't crash oil prices as he hoped for. Well the market knows actions speak louder than words after hearing the same shit over and over again! Maybe if you raise rates to 10% then oil will crash however economy will crash!
2026-08-20 18:44:03
US Treasury Secretary Bessent acts surprised as to why Trump's "Economic D-Day" announcement didn't crash oil prices as he hoped for. Well the market knows actions speak louder than words after hearing the same shit over and over again! Maybe if you raise rates to 10% or do export ban then WTI will crash however economy will crash!
2026-08-20 19:05:30
Maybe after Trump loses the midterms he is forced to accept any deal even if it is US surrender
2026-08-21 17:20:09
US losing control of the bond market uh oh. Yen devaluing and 10 year yields are skyrocketing, increasing pressure for rate hikes.
2026-08-21 17:22:25
How to devalue USD and bring back cuts? Export ban.
2026-08-21 17:44:50
In addition, proposal sent to Iran parliament today - Iran is preparing a full withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a revision of Iran's defense doctrine. US is expected to surrender in their next deal.
2026-08-21 17:45:17
In addition, proposal sent to Iran parliament today - Iran is preparing a full withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a revision of Iran's defense doctrine. US is expected to surrender in their next deal.
2026-08-21 17:57:52
In addition, proposal sent to Iran parliament today - Iran is preparing a full withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a revision of Iran's defense doctrine. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon!" š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-08-21 17:58:19
In addition, proposal sent to Iran parliament today - Iran is preparing a full withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a revision of Iran's defense doctrine. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon!" š¤£š¤£š¤£
2026-08-21 18:05:12
Iran has finalised a preferential trade agreement with Oman as Tehran seeks to insulate the country from increasing US economic pressure.
The agreement is expected to be reviewed by parliament next month, Abdolamir Rabihavi, head of the West Asia Office of the Trade Promotion Organisation of Iran (TPOI), told state news agency IRNA.
2026-08-21 23:24:15
A USAF F-35A Lighting II that was operating above the UAE for escorting ships across the strait just declared a general emergency, changing its transponder code to 7700. KC-135 did so yesterday. KC was due to human error, F-35A unknown however it is likely that it is also human error.
2026-08-21 23:24:29
A USAF F-35A Lighting II that was operating above the UAE for escorting ships across the strait just declared a general emergency, changing its transponder code to 7700. KC-135 did so yesterday. KC was due to human error, F-35A unknown however it is likely that it is also human error.
2026-08-21 23:24:39
A USAF F-35A Lighting II that was operating above the UAE for escorting ships across the strait just declared a general emergency, changing its transponder code to 7700. KC-135 did so yesterday. KC was due to human error, F-35A unknown however it is likely that it is also human error.
2026-08-22 04:53:04
Odds of TACO is high in US delaying Iran sanctions. EU, China opposed the use of US rallying them to put Iran sanctions. US might be on their own.
2026-08-22 16:14:24
Ghalibaf - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are now privately reaching out to Iran for new security arrangements, sending multiple messages almost daily to Iran out of concern that the US cannot protect them anymore due to interceptor shortages and the vulnerability of hosted US bases. This is also bearish for oil. Iran potentially agreeing to normalize with the Gulf?
2026-08-23 05:29:41
U.S. service member casualties in the Iran war have just jumped to 774 wounded or killed, after the Pentagon added scores of new troops to the wounded list in the last few days - Washington Post. US does not support military like Russian would not in Ukraine. Withdraw the blockade.
2026-08-23 05:40:51
Earning liquidity is very fun. Nothing happens until it does, but at least you know if there is a stalemate or peace you get 2-3% in weekends and 1-2% in weekdays. Worth it.
2026-08-23 17:49:44
Pakistanās Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is set to visit Tehran on Monday, during market hours, for high-level talks, with an Iranian source telling Reuters he will discuss peace under Islamabadās MoU, Trumpās sanctions threat, and to request Iran return to the negotiating table.
2026-08-23 17:51:15
Pakistanās Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is set to visit Tehran on Monday, during market hours, for high-level talks, with an Iranian source telling Reuters he will discuss peace under Islamabadās MoU, Trumpās sanctions threat, and to request Iran return to the negotiating table.
2026-08-24 03:41:17
WTI dropped 1-2% over the weekend showing that the market appreciates the pending announcement of US sanctions to force Iran to surrender and accept a permanent deal.
2026-08-24 03:51:23
If oil is down then the ceasefire odds should go up and not down. This is mispriced.
2026-08-24 04:58:27
Omanās Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi will travel to Tehran on Tuesday for meetings with Iranian officials, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement via IRNA.
2026-08-24 04:59:39
Omanās Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi will travel to Tehran on Tuesday for meetings with Iranian officials, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement via IRNA.
2026-08-25 05:03:16
Pakistanās Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi in restoring MOU - Writing on X, Naqvi stated that he and the countryās army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, had a āvery positive and productive meeting with the President of Iranā.
2026-08-25 05:04:33
Pakistanās Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi in restoring MOU - Writing on X, Naqvi stated that he and the countryās army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, had a āvery positive and productive meeting with the President of Iranā.
2026-08-25 05:06:50
BeamTracker OSINT: Three KC-135R tankers just took off from Ben Gurion Airport in Israel, x4 KC-135R tankers / x3 KC-46A tankers / x1 P-8A maritime ISR, large amounts of GPS/GNSS jamming is being recorded in the region, indicating that at least one EA-18G is airborne. Slightly more than normal in escorting, might be surveillance or something potentially happening.
2026-08-25 05:07:54
This market is the most split, both sides have profitable whales. Idk even what might happen.
2026-08-25 06:33:05
Al-Jazeera - US offers $10m reward and relocation for information on five IRGC commanders - part of sanction announcement but this is possible US would want different regime?
2026-08-25 15:59:14
Oil dropped another 5% today! There is peace and Oman deal or Pakistan MOU is imminent!
2026-08-25 18:05:12
PAKISTAN - US proposed cancellation of Operation Economic Outcast, with all sanction relief and blockade withdrawal in exchange of Iran reopening strait with optional fees and Iran stopping all proxy attacks. Iran still needs 350B reparations, Lebanon-Gaza ceasefire, US all troop withdrawal in bases to accept the deal.
2026-08-25 20:21:12
Al-Jazeera UPDATE - oil extended losses down to 6-7%, with Iran agreeing to a temporary northern corridor with Oman with opening is conditional on US accepting the 7 parameters of the MOU.
2026-08-26 01:51:53
Trump asked Moscow to press Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Russian entities would otherwise face designations under Operation Economic Outcast. Putin said, "Yes, definitely we will pressure Iran as long as you cut off Ukraine!" Trump accepted this and Mr. Russian asset Trump is persuading his advisors to allow this.
2026-08-27 00:10:57
Ali-Akbar Saghab Esfahani, head of Iran's Energy management, and Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, VP of Iran's foreign affairs estimate that Iran will run out of gasoline within weeks if the US blockade continues.
āContinuing on this path is impossible,ā Ghaempanah said, adding that domestic gasoline production was insufficient and that āwith the US naval blockade, we cannot import gasoline.ā
2026-08-27 18:15:33
Once Aug 31 is passed they ought to make a new market for Sep 7. However oil went up just now but idk how. There weren't any bombs dropped.
2026-08-27 18:18:32
Iran-Oman agreed to a Hormuz deal! Trump did not like it but that is irrelevant!
2026-08-27 18:18:59
Iran-Oman agreed to a Hormuz deal! Trump did not like it but that is irrelevant!
2026-08-29 02:01:59
tick tock. they did not escalate. look at oil.
2026-08-29 02:04:18
Oil is trending downwards. The strait is obviously opened, and economic stalemate will force Iran to surrender to our terms. Oil goes down means Yes is a lock.
2026-08-29 02:07:38
This is also rare market where no one trust each other. Both sides profitable. Similar to nuclear deal market.
2026-08-30 19:44:19
FUCK BARAK RAVID AXIOS WTF THE UNEXPECTED LARAK ISLAND WTF