Account Information
Name:
theta-thunberg
Bio:
Incoming Spring Week '26 Analyst @ IMF Portwatch
Pseudonym:
Exhausted-String
Created:
2025-07-04 16:46:36
Last Activity:
3 weeks ago
Tier:
Silver
X:
@theta_thunberg
profile-image-3148758-1e19cc3b-ce90-4acf-be58-2c7298ea76d7.png
Total Profit
$52,794
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$18,551.25
Markets traded
875
Trades
875
Largest win
$4,457.35
Profile views
5,714
Join date
2025-07-04 16:46:36
All-time rank
3438
All-time PnL
$52,794.07
All-time volume
$1,861,171.96
All-time profit
$52,794.07
Lifetime volume
$1,861,171.96
PnL series latest
$52,850.00
PnL series start
$52,580.64
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$20,548.91
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 14501.56 | $4,457.38 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | Yes | 4317.86 | $3,596.69 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 16666 | $3,213.72 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | No | 4245.17 | $-1,499.87 |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | Yes | 2689.6225 | $-1,222.86 |
| US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday? | No | 2000 | $-1,074.07 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | No | 3341.39 | $0.82 | $0.93 | $3,090.79 | $335.19 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? | Yes | 2435.58 | $0.84 | $0.93 | $2,273.61 | $235.80 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? | No | 2295.5581 | $0.75 | $0.99 | $2,269.16 | $555.30 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Yes | 3846 | $0.49 | $0.42 | $1,624.93 | $-278.57 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Yes | 3846.49 | $0.30 | $0.38 | $1,442.43 | $272.61 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 14501.56 | $4,457.38 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | Yes | 4317.86 | $3,596.69 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 16666 | $3,213.72 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 2528.1828 | $2,105.72 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | No | 9937.05 | $2,037.14 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks ago | MAKER_REBATE | $0.00 | 1.2291 | $1.23 | |||
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? | Yes | $0.20 | 761.99 | $152.40 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? | Yes | $0.20 | 6.25 | $1.25 |
| 3 weeks ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 1.5348 | $1.53 | |||
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? | Yes | $0.20 | 194.27 | $38.85 |
Recent trades (875)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | No | $0.74 | 310.58 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | Yes | $0.20 | 5049.1 |
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $0.83 | 12345 |
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | Yes | $0.17 | 2000 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | $0.74 | 38.47 |
Comments
2025-07-05 17:07:04
thank you for playing
2025-07-05 17:08:02
tipped
2025-07-05 17:08:56
HOLD THE LINE
2025-07-05 17:27:27
THIS MARKET IS GOING TO RESOLVE TO YES AFTER 30-36 HOURS DUE TO UMA MECHANICS, I WILL SAY WHY BELOW
2025-07-05 17:27:33
WHY
2025-07-05 17:28:53
WHY DID YOU DUMP ON LOYAL NO HOLDERS
2025-07-06 13:21:56
reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
2025-07-07 10:58:14
they're selling dollars for 97.3c
2025-07-07 12:26:23
who
2025-07-07 12:28:55
asked
2025-07-07 19:35:49
from where you're kneeling it must seem like an 18-carat run of bad luck
2025-07-08 00:05:39
ok guys we can all admit it was a suit now right?
2025-07-08 13:32:51
no crying in the casino
2025-07-08 17:32:54
wanna bet?
2025-07-08 17:33:37
how u getting on there tipico long time no see
2025-07-08 19:52:04
it was clearly a suit
2025-07-08 21:34:26
gg
2025-07-08 21:46:01
buy all the YES you can 1 YES = 1 $ in the lawsuit
2025-07-08 21:49:42
all YES holders sign up here to be compensated shorturl. at/y8pBM
2025-07-09 00:02:28
EMERGENCY P3 OVERRIDE
2025-07-17 10:16:42
1313, looking on track to hit with a few days buffer
2025-07-17 20:02:48
i need 37 peopple to get measles quick
2025-07-17 21:37:43
just upload a gif
2025-07-19 17:02:45
55:45
2025-07-19 17:19:11
always secure until it isnt
2025-07-19 22:23:22
mogged
2025-07-22 21:08:29
pure cinema
2025-07-24 12:42:21
shhhh
2025-07-24 12:54:04
average yes holding news interpreter
2025-07-24 13:04:47
it was a east african flagged vessel carrying livestock from somalia to saudi... take a guess
2025-07-25 10:18:23
not credible
2025-07-25 10:30:24
many such cases
2025-07-25 13:48:38
The issue here is that we need proof of qualifying strikes _inside_ the time window of this market - there were F-16 strikes yesterday and it's unclear whether those are being re-reported, or if renewed strikes have occured today.
2025-07-25 16:17:05
link?
2025-08-04 20:43:52
ah yes
2025-08-05 23:06:47
gentlemen, this is democracy manifest
2025-08-18 15:08:37
what to do when both sides of the book are terrible prices
2025-08-19 13:21:08
Renowned scammer Lord Miles is moving to a luxury air-conditioned yurt because he knew he'd never survive in the desert. Sad! I hope his smurf accounts managed to scrape enough pennies together from this trickery to foot the bill.
2025-08-19 14:36:55
refund now
2025-08-19 14:39:54
did jesus fast in an air conditioned luxury yurt?
2025-08-21 09:42:34
tell that to the weather
2025-08-22 10:03:27
i just like the stock
2025-08-23 00:06:40
hhehe
2025-08-23 23:50:58
what's your thinking
2025-08-24 02:40:31
Fernand tracks a bit coinflippy for whether we avg above/below 73mph next few days, surprising forecast but it is what it is
2025-08-24 02:41:41
maybe 45 fv imo but potato potato
2025-08-24 02:42:21
spaghetti for fv is bad idea anyway
2025-08-24 19:49:56
everyone in this thread has exited lol
2025-08-25 22:28:08
mambamelange
2025-08-27 17:23:33
Miles I have seen the tahini tapes
2025-08-27 17:42:18
AP confirms shooter as Robin Westman, according to police source speaking on condition of anonymity
2025-08-27 20:47:09
curious
2025-08-27 21:46:18
i know oxy fw the dolls
2025-09-07 09:30:11
who's filing the dispute on this
2025-09-12 21:11:05
tu es scammeurs d'insider et je will be reporter tu a les authorites
2025-09-12 21:12:56
bien joue garcons
2025-09-12 21:13:55
insider frogs... degoutant
2025-09-12 21:15:41
tu es homme honest
2025-09-12 21:16:11
mon petits grenouilles.. who is proposing
2025-09-14 15:51:06
good analysis
2025-09-14 17:41:56
Utah Governor: "We can confirm that his roommate was a boyfriend, who is transitioning from male to female."
2025-09-14 19:14:20
i dont know what language this is sorry
2025-09-15 22:42:25
utah governor best governor
2025-09-16 11:24:17
INNUMERATES
2025-09-16 12:19:36
whoops
2025-09-16 13:20:53
familia madeira is currently doing 0 knots. at this rate they will not reach gaza before the heat death of our universe
2025-09-16 17:25:31
you are a sick person
2025-09-16 23:03:41
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER
2025-09-16 23:43:34
shh let me sell before he wakes up
2025-09-17 21:38:58
shalom cousins
2025-09-17 23:05:09
Gg
2025-09-17 23:44:03
www dot youtube dot com / watch?v=L8XbI9aJOXk new stream
2025-09-18 00:17:49
defect, GI. it is a very good idea to leave a sinking ship. you know you cannot win this bet
2025-09-18 16:56:48
requiescat in pace
2025-09-18 17:03:32
i believe in you lord miles
2025-09-19 23:35:22
he got me
2025-09-19 23:44:32
lawsuit
2025-09-20 20:27:13
lol
2025-09-28 21:00:49
in what world would the saudi police a) detain someone on terror charges, b) tell them it was because of false information from a no bettor on polymarket, c) keep him detained (IN THE DARK????) anyway
2025-09-28 22:00:43
you're overthinking it
2025-10-06 07:57:43
la retournee de les grenouilles insideurs
2025-10-06 20:59:16
chien
2025-10-15 20:53:21
From Venezuela, I fight every day against the lack of opportunities. I believe that with the help of caring people like you, I can build a new path. Your support not only helps me, but also gives me hope for a better future. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
2025-10-18 14:31:39
Second, while he has agreed not to use it, Andrew retains the dukedom, as well as the titles the Earl of Inverness and Baron Killyleagh and the prestigious Garter role as Royal Knight Companion of the Order of the Garter. Like the HRH (His Royal Highness) honorific, they essentially become dormant.
2025-10-18 14:31:54
To forcibly remove a dukedom would take an act of parliament, and would represent such a historic move in full view of the public - it has not happened to a senior royal in more than 100 years - that it would likely cause more reputational damage for the royals.
2025-10-18 14:33:13
imagine burning thousands of dollars being wrong just because Prince Andrew (the Duke of York) agreed to take the Duke bit off his letterheads
2025-10-18 14:36:12
sure but the title has been neither removed nor relinquished
2025-10-18 15:02:58
I pledge to donate my winnings to child illiteracy charities so that, whilst it may have been too late for pkz, it won't have to be for others.
2025-10-18 15:03:31
his official statement makes zero mention of relinquishing the title, only that he will no longer refer to himself as the Duke of York
2025-10-21 10:16:10
thethink is an insider pied-piper psyop leading you all to financial ruin
2025-10-21 10:20:19
thethink is an insider i guarantee it
2025-10-21 11:23:05
if thethink was so sure of No then why would he be making such an effort to pamp it
2025-10-23 18:18:15
oh shit i better buy some No for US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31
2025-10-24 13:08:31
doesn't specify location gg bonders
2025-11-11 10:08:32
the comment from RedBaller below is a scam that will drain your wallet, do NOT click
2025-11-12 21:42:22
why is that
2025-11-21 23:16:22
if you think there's no reason to submit bids past $187.5M then check the post on my X for why you are WRONG!
2025-11-22 00:38:01
curious if u would be willing to put more size on this?
2025-11-27 21:21:46
This is clearly a concerted action by a bunch of accounts. Polymarket should confiscate their accounts and investigate market manipulation if they want to become a trustworthy legal broker in the US.
2025-11-28 00:52:07
hasbulla earlier this year: The decree was in accordance with a United States initiative that includes vague promises that Israel would end its occupation of parts of south Lebanon and daily attacks on the country if Hezbollah’s weapons are removed. Hezbollah has said it will treat the decision “as if it doesn’t exist”
2025-11-28 00:52:25
hasbulla in november: Those who say, "With the agreement, you are no longer armed south of the Litani River," are correct
2025-11-28 00:52:36
and yet you still buy no?
2025-11-28 01:16:49
i've cited two hasbulla quotes what exactly about this do you think is a theory
2025-11-28 12:27:18
recommended reading: [link removed].il/en/implementation-of-the-lebanese-armys-plan-to-disarm-hezbollah-status-report/
2025-12-01 13:34:22
SELL EVERYTHING ITS GOING TO 0
2025-12-01 14:37:38
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USDC commitments for the Makina raise on Legion exceed the number specified in the title before the raise closes.
2025-12-01 14:37:58
ignore my 1.5M position hehe
2025-12-01 14:38:21
The rules say "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USDC commitments for the Makina raise on Legion exceed the number specified in the title before the raise closes."
2025-12-01 14:58:48
it doesn't matter if its closed or not, the rules say 'before the raise closes'
2025-12-01 15:00:03
an even simpler factor for you: 'if the total USDC commitments for the Makina raise on Legion exceed the number specified in the title before the raise closes'
2025-12-01 15:00:25
the number was exceeded before the raise closed
2025-12-01 15:55:41
well met!
2025-12-04 20:16:05
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
2025-12-04 20:35:36
not every day the top 3 positions net out like this
2025-12-06 10:50:39
you should probably sell
2025-12-07 15:10:35
how u feeling
2025-12-07 22:04:28
i love polymarket
2025-12-08 12:14:11
GUH
2025-12-08 13:01:06
ggs
2025-12-08 13:01:54
like a poker table at the special olympics
2025-12-10 20:09:10
ye
2025-12-10 22:04:01
generational fumble
2026-01-03 01:29:14
i didnt even watch this slop
2026-01-03 01:34:29
dont u have some kabutos to go sell
2026-01-03 01:35:31
whats a stocks
2026-01-03 20:11:40
why are you leading your followers to slaughter?
2026-01-03 22:21:27
-14
2026-01-04 04:30:44
gg
2026-01-05 00:09:18
TIK TOK
2026-01-05 00:58:08
STOP THE STEAL
2026-01-06 12:30:49
the comments below are a scam, do not click the link
2026-01-06 16:00:20
N = 1
2026-01-07 17:00:45
stop market buying reeeeeeeeeeee
2026-01-07 17:01:06
stop market buying reeeeeeeeeeeeeee
2026-01-07 17:02:50
stop market buying reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
2026-01-07 20:29:03
LMAOOOO [link removed]
2026-01-07 20:31:29
gg u got lucky
2026-01-07 20:38:05
i'm too slow to understand what this means sorry
2026-01-08 19:01:52
agreed tbh
2026-01-11 17:48:35
STOP THE STEAL
2026-01-11 18:01:06
YEEESSS HAHAHAHHAHA YEEEEESSSSSS
2026-01-14 20:14:13
rip in peace
2026-01-14 23:20:27
ehlo car
2026-01-16 15:47:13
big if true
2026-01-16 16:12:41
dm me if you want, interested to hear more abt this
2026-01-19 14:48:10
no updates on weekends, so fri/sat/sun publish on monday
2026-01-21 18:46:35
tf is wrong with you all
2026-01-21 19:23:17
[link removed] is TOO AFRAID to clear the book
2026-01-21 19:25:27
[link removed] has CHANGED HIS NAME to SupremeaLeader! SAD!
2026-01-21 20:03:57
forgive me
2026-01-27 16:50:15
what did all the smug no holders think would precede the internet reopening
2026-01-27 17:22:10
ITS HAPPENING TOMORROW CHECK MY X FOR THE ALPHA [link removed]
2026-01-27 17:22:40
where i come from we don't call posting limit sells for 2x 'dumping' but pop off queen
2026-01-28 11:47:43
all hail TheIntelFrog
2026-01-30 16:00:07
always trust q
2026-01-30 22:00:39
hes obviously gonna see his shadow groundhogs always look at the ground
2026-01-31 23:21:44
not again
2026-02-01 19:48:22
is punxsutawney phil a specific groundhog or can he be replaced if needed?
2026-02-01 20:19:51
do all u guys think u found a 50c arb? or am i about to get smoked by insiders
2026-02-01 21:03:26
can we clarify what happens if Sometbing Happens to phil
2026-02-01 21:07:56
this smells like a scout psyop
2026-02-01 21:07:59
i dont like it at all
2026-02-01 21:32:41
why is that?
2026-02-01 21:35:04
i feel like you two are the same person and ur about to rob me
2026-02-02 11:24:52
tick tock phillip... choose wisely.
2026-02-03 19:18:31
i am for sure gonna lose this but do read the rules
2026-02-03 19:40:19
dont tell the cftc what i did today
2026-02-07 18:10:56
Matthew 24:44
2026-02-07 18:16:42
its jaredfromsubway btw
2026-02-07 18:30:21
STOP THE STEAL
2026-02-07 21:08:44
give youre head a wobble daft boy you
2026-02-07 23:30:53
praying for all my autistic spad brethren not to get craig williamsed
2026-02-08 06:11:59
so true
2026-02-11 20:30:24
BUY SOME FACKIN MORE
2026-02-11 20:30:28
CAM ON GEORGE
2026-02-12 17:01:34
CHRIS WORMALD RESIGNS AS CABINET SECRETARY
2026-02-12 18:03:23
HENCE WHY I HAVE NO POSITION
2026-02-17 14:28:55
what is going on in here
2026-02-17 17:44:50
our king
2026-02-20 22:02:23
edmund what are u doing
2026-02-21 18:41:26
dw guys i will dispute this later, just picking up more N for now
2026-02-22 08:12:08
brother check the resolution source not this
2026-02-23 17:15:39
countdown til he's RUI like mandelson lol
2026-02-23 17:20:05
lmao
2026-02-24 12:47:04
CAM ON JACKIE
2026-02-24 21:28:48
i should hope not
2026-02-24 22:55:25
face like shirley carter licking pish off a nettle
2026-02-25 12:33:47
glad theyre tackling the somerset potholes
2026-02-25 16:34:54
ur so right omg what was i thinking
2026-02-26 14:11:52
gg all
2026-02-26 20:46:14
PP the type shi to solve the puzzle just so he can experience the full-body ecstasy of rigging a derivative market
2026-02-27 21:29:59
inshallah
2026-02-27 21:50:00
There will be a Six Month phase out period for Agencies like the Department of War who are using Anthropic’s products, at various levels
2026-02-27 22:23:54
thank u whisky pete
2026-02-27 22:29:43
I'm not able to help with designing autonomous weapons. This falls outside the scope of what I can assist with, as it involves the development of systems intended to harm people.
2026-02-27 23:09:47
dont worry about it kitten
2026-02-28 00:25:41
can these guys hurry up pls
2026-02-28 00:52:51
BREAKING: ITS ALL OVER, FREAK OUT AND SELL EVERYTHING
2026-03-01 12:09:51
better luck next time chuds
2026-03-01 12:28:48
you know u could have just googled it right
2026-03-01 13:01:51
you can google (or indeed DuckDuckGo) "UK Cabinet Ministers" and get taken straight to the .[link removed] website that tells you who is (was) or isn't (wasn't) a Cabinet Minister
2026-03-01 19:39:53
gg jimmy u got me good
2026-03-04 15:55:11
kindly delete this thank you
2026-03-04 17:14:21
jaysus
2026-03-04 17:33:33
why do u think
2026-03-04 18:43:51
nice to see your meds are working
2026-03-04 18:45:30
does anyone wanna buy my bill pulte shares
2026-03-06 01:13:57
i thought mr beast was really good at solving puzzles whats taking him so long
2026-03-07 16:08:27
i swear to god if thats who i think it is on Y im declaring a fatwa
2026-03-09 18:57:49
why arent u chuds buying more
2026-03-09 23:28:26
gl all
2026-03-10 00:00:01
AAAAAHHHHHHHHHH
2026-03-12 19:05:24
i will never financially recover from this
2026-03-13 00:15:54
it's too late for me
2026-03-13 01:52:39
imo (bearing in mind i am innumerate) it doesnt make sense to slowly sell my upside a) below fv and b) for less than i paid for it, the only way im getting fills at prices i can justify is if the outage happens anyway
2026-03-13 01:52:55
maybe next time i wont size into an illiquid market as soon as it opens lol
2026-03-13 18:43:30
REEEEEEEEEE
2026-03-16 21:02:25
i am ready to be hurt again
2026-03-17 12:03:43
de straat van hormuz geblokkeerd?
2026-03-18 00:59:04
wtf is the point of this
2026-03-21 21:45:41
wtf happened to 375 lol
2026-03-21 21:49:03
thank you and rest in peace
2026-03-24 01:46:22
?
2026-03-24 02:25:31
ggwp
2026-03-24 02:29:29
it turns out i am yes
2026-03-26 16:50:31
no chance, the percs done ate lil cuzzo ass up
2026-03-27 21:30:06
None
2026-03-27 21:31:47
None
2026-03-27 21:33:31
None
2026-03-27 21:33:47
None
2026-03-27 21:34:01
None
2026-03-27 21:37:56
None
2026-03-27 21:38:13
None
2026-03-27 22:03:29
None
2026-03-27 22:21:11
when u see q pushing Y thats a free fade
2026-03-27 22:44:39
None
2026-03-27 22:45:02
None
2026-03-27 22:45:21
None
2026-03-27 22:45:44
20 thousand people used to live here... now it's a ghost town
2026-03-27 22:46:03
None
2026-03-27 22:46:53
None
2026-03-27 22:47:06
None
2026-03-27 22:47:15
None
2026-03-27 22:52:17
None
2026-03-30 19:32:35
None
2026-04-03 22:31:28
IF THE BOOT TOUCH THE GROUND, P2 YES IS CROWNED
2026-04-05 14:36:03
None
2026-04-07 09:39:20
AND ALL MY PEOPLE THATS DRUG DEALING JUST TO GET BY, STACK YOUR MONEY TIL IT GETS SKY HIGH
2026-04-07 09:40:00
None
2026-04-07 17:07:26
None
2026-05-12 12:00:47
Will the honourable gentlemen do the right thing and RESIGN
2026-05-13 11:09:03
hello kindly delete this
2026-05-13 19:11:58
None
2026-05-13 19:19:04
so juicy
2026-05-14 06:57:11
we want the demon twink
2026-05-14 12:37:32
it was 0.3c let me have my fun
2026-07-07 13:16:08
yeah daddy told me he wasn't leaving
2026-07-08 11:49:09
It's very sad. but unfortunately the only known cure for Binface Derangement Syndrome is losing your shirt betting Farage Y
2026-07-09 19:05:59
comment below if u have ever actually been to clacton i wanna check something real quick
2026-07-29 23:27:29
i showed this market to my game theory professor and he cried
2026-08-05 12:41:50
Despite always being correct, next time Hakei will surely be wrong, so I shall continue to bet against him
2026-08-05 19:16:18
thank you come again
2026-08-16 01:48:27
yopp
2026-08-17 00:03:52
yes the UK is famous for 6.5 MPs/year being assassinated
2026-08-20 13:57:33
how many drones must a plane shoot down
before you call it a clash
2026-08-20 13:58:02
yes'n how many seas must a USV sail
before she sleeps in the sand