Account Information
Name:
cambridgeisaac
Pseudonym:
Brown-Tragedy
Created:
2024-07-23 09:46:52
Last Activity:
1 day ago
Tier:
Bronze
profile-image-623958-77877372-fbfd-4dd6-98f0-d8250e94f5ce.jpg
Total Profit
$77,030
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$116,499.83
Markets traded
2,035
Trades
2,035
Largest win
$35,515.42
Profile views
5,590
Join date
2024-07-23 09:46:52
All-time rank
2523
All-time PnL
$77,030.20
All-time volume
$6,480,139.71
All-time profit
$77,030.20
Lifetime volume
$6,480,139.71
PnL series latest
$76,869.25
PnL series start
$70,591.85
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$15,833.83
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 107618.9436 | $35,515.42 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 55335.9935 | $26,501.02 |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | Yes | 17735.774 | $8,204.48 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 78290.5348 | $-14,526.67 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | Yes | 19241.6988 | $-11,465.41 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | Yes | 21193.5852 | $-11,304.00 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 15771.944 | $0.71 | $0.71 | $11,276.94 | $62.90 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | Yes | 7498.4959 | $0.71 | $1.00 | $7,498.50 | $2,184.86 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 7146.7473 | $0.34 | $1.00 | $7,146.75 | $4,686.79 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 9818.8481 | $0.67 | $0.72 | $7,118.66 | $577.58 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 7439.6141 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $6,360.87 | $10.30 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 107618.9436 | $35,515.42 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 55335.9935 | $26,501.02 |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | Yes | 17735.774 | $8,204.48 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | 13635.4806 | $5,260.67 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 25624.5528 | $4,421.26 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | No | $0.03 | 2000 | $64.00 |
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | SELL | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | Yes | $0.96 | 1075.26 | $1,037.63 |
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | SELL | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.94 | 56.97 | $53.55 |
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | SELL | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.94 | 860.67 | $809.03 |
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | SELL | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | Yes | $0.88 | 30.4 | $26.75 |
Recent trades (2035)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day ago | BUY | Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30? | No | $0.79 | 382.49 |
| 1 day ago | SELL | Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | Yes | $0.85 | 3495.68 |
| 1 day ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | No | $0.04 | 2643.84 |
| 1 day ago | BUY | Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30? | No | $0.78 | 20.4 |
| 1 day ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | Yes | $0.81 | 30 |
Comments
2025-03-10 19:13:34
Why isnât the price changing at all now that the outcome of the uma vote is clear?
2025-03-10 19:24:23
Thereâs a little green check next to consensus which I assume means itâs decided. But even if thatâs not the case, itâs 95 to 5âŠ
2025-03-10 19:35:01
[link removed]
2025-03-10 19:35:58
Click âview detailsâ
2025-03-10 20:15:23
You must be right, but isnât that crazy? A 30% chance that theyâre going to finished a week ahead of the 60-day headline and there will be no bureaucratic hurdlesâŠ
2025-05-23 18:24:17
Whatâs the argument for why there isnât going to be some sort of fight/grapple? Thereâs no bit of thereâs no fighting.
2025-05-23 18:24:36
*if thereâs no fighting
2025-05-23 20:28:21
lol yes
2025-05-26 13:37:24
Can somebody explain to a newb whatâs going on here? Itâs that thereâs no signed document from qatar to trump saying âitâs yours nowâ? Do people think thatâs not happening by June or think itâs never happening?
2025-05-26 15:46:23
What do the no people think needs to happen to satisfy the marketâs rules?
2025-06-08 19:58:49
The garmin tracker made it look like they were at the airport in Jordan. Seems likely that was intentionalâŠ
2025-06-09 09:49:20
this language was also added to their terms of service "updated on June 9th", which were also actually posted June 6
2025-06-09 11:35:05
when the market was first posted, was the "june 9th" update already posted?
2025-06-09 12:39:12
What if they edited the update to say âupdated June 6thâ? would that resolve yes or no?
2025-06-09 12:59:37
Is between inclusive or exclusive ?
2025-06-10 09:27:17
Theyâve updated the webpage and june 9th is still there
2025-06-11 12:31:48
What news is the market moving on?
2025-06-11 20:17:44
Even if baldoni doesnât amend, wouldnât it still go ânoâ because the judge wouldnât have dismissed that part of the case, baldoni would have dropped it (which is a ânoâ per the rules).
2025-06-12 13:35:21
this market is over. no holders should just take a penny or two per share and cash out...
2025-06-17 18:38:15
Whatâs the argument for how this goes yes?
2025-06-24 09:22:35
lol oops
2025-06-26 19:43:56
His trousers and jacket were not matching or made of the same material
2025-06-28 04:37:40
Why has it gone so high? It hasnât been dismissed yet ?
2025-06-28 14:50:59
Right, exactly. And it seems way more likely that it wonât happen Monday than that it will. So whatâs going on?
2025-06-28 19:55:56
This price makes no sense. Whatâs the argument for yes if the judge doesnât issue a dismissal on Monday?
2025-06-29 15:40:59
Wtf when was the outcome proposed. This is absurd
2025-06-29 15:43:35
Is there any way to contest this now ?
2025-06-29 20:13:52
Doesnât 2 hours seem unreasonably short window for disputing?
2025-07-08 15:24:05
Where? On truth social ?
2025-07-17 16:49:11
Whatâs the news ?
2025-07-22 19:13:03
Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?
2025-10-01 17:17:50
Whatâs the news??
2025-10-02 10:48:12
it's not totally clear that that it would resolve this market. waltz isn't out; the position is out.
2025-10-20 17:58:45
One bought more an hour or so ago
2025-10-21 10:17:11
Iâm scared but buying, too đŹ
2025-10-30 16:09:03
it's not just growth, though. biden had lower volume in 2017 than 2016, but was still number 6 in 2017
2025-11-06 16:10:09
I thought it was a trick when it was at 32 centsâŠ
2025-11-06 18:34:50
Polymarket sleuthed out the Nobel peace prize and the fifa peace prize đ
2025-11-11 10:19:51
this reporting isn't really giving person-of-the-year vibes: [link removed]
2025-11-18 10:14:19
why is nov 18 still so relatively cheap? what am i missing?
2025-11-18 10:37:17
yeah, i guess that's it, but a 9% chance that something goes that wrong? this isn't some group project at university. is there any chance the release to the general public?
2025-11-18 12:41:01
why aren't more whales trading this market? it makes me nervous...
2025-11-18 14:24:23
You think issues are fixed in the next few hours and they release/launch normally?
2025-11-18 15:16:28
Well done, fellow diamond hands!
2025-11-18 21:34:47
Would love to hear what youâve found out
2025-11-20 10:25:08
what would resolution be if somebody pays the million dollars, but a gold card isn't issued yet (vetting, etc)?
2025-11-21 23:49:56
Why is no still so low? People are unsure if âwhat I appreciateâŠâ qualifies as praise?
2025-11-22 00:27:20
Just saying appreciate doesnât mean itâs praise. If he said âI really appreciate that heâs a jerkâ obviously wouldnât count. What he actually said is not praise because the the he said he appreciated was something neutral (âfocusâ)
2025-11-25 17:04:04
đ€ đ€ đ€
2025-12-05 18:35:58
đ± đ±đ±đ±
2025-12-08 15:26:15
Is everybody just buying ânoâ for everything cause they donât think thereâs gonna be a shortlist?
2025-12-09 13:05:58
i sorta get why people might not sell their 'no', but i really don't understand why they're buying more and more
2025-12-09 14:30:17
Maybe theyâre foregoing the shortlist this year. But they might also just being doing ceo, breakthrough, etc first and then release the shortlist, rather than shortlist, ceo/breakthrough/athlete, the. Person of the year
2025-12-10 23:21:17
Link to image of cover ?
2025-12-11 10:31:44
Youâre not worried about the resolution source issue ?
2025-12-11 15:24:57
Yeah and things I think Iâve bought arenât showing in my positions
2025-12-12 11:19:57
how did you know to bet so much against valu eke?
2025-12-12 12:50:09
Are you gonna propose ?
2025-12-12 12:53:18
The rules say photographic evidence can be substituted, not just some other random websiteâŠ
2025-12-12 12:54:12
I hope youâre right obviously. Iâm just nervous about putting more money down
2025-12-15 07:17:57
Well done, turak. Glad I copy traded you!
2025-12-16 07:33:09
Why arenât people believing the tweets ?
2025-12-16 10:39:01
[link removed]
2025-12-16 10:40:15
[link removed]
2025-12-16 11:39:27
oh sorry i copied the reply, not the original. [link removed] it's from the guy in charge of shipping gemini
2025-12-17 11:25:52
i'm so confused by this market (so i've just been randomly buying and selling both sides to lose as much money as possible)
2025-12-17 11:44:36
why wouldn't draftkings be hyping it at all?!
2025-12-17 18:12:50
Thank you for this. I was actually worried he knew something
2025-12-19 09:52:04
Yeah I donât get the Saturday thing at all either
2025-12-26 09:19:41
Then we wait until the end of the year to see if a client list comes out
2025-12-26 20:41:45
Have people not read the clarification or do they think the real client list is coming in the next 5 days?
2025-12-26 20:59:26
The fbi email?
2025-12-26 21:51:30
You donât think the clarification is relevant to that document?
2026-01-02 20:15:27
Is it? The rules arenât really clear ?
2026-01-08 07:35:55
The announcement of the board of peace?
2026-01-10 12:37:02
Sheâs publicly offered it and heâs said âit would be a honorâ to accept. Whatâs the argument for no?
2026-01-10 14:17:33
But itâs a totally abstract thing and untethered from the Nobel committee. So if she says I now share the prize with trump; and trump says âthank you I acceptâ that should resolve yes, right?
2026-01-10 17:07:56
I think it is likely the reason trump has agreed to a meeting with her
2026-01-15 14:19:32
"It's like the Holy Trinity, you don't need to understand it, you only need to believe in it," a source said when asked how a peace council that has yet to be established could appoint a Palestinian technocratic committee to govern Gaza.
2026-01-15 14:20:32
you can make the argument that the existence of the executive board and technocratic committee prove the existance of the board of peace...
2026-01-15 19:18:34
Whatâs new info?
2026-01-22 20:37:47
Can somebody explain this market to me lol?
2026-01-25 16:55:52
âOver the course of the last 24 hoursâ if thatâs true itâs not before market creation
2026-01-25 22:21:50
Us drones active in ongoing operations
2026-01-25 22:22:15
[link removed]
2026-01-26 17:25:05
That seems right
2026-01-28 15:39:59
In the 27th going to count??
2026-01-30 15:21:53
[link removed]
2026-01-30 15:34:02
The one with international partners has to bean air strike
2026-02-06 21:30:57
so i'm genuinely curious: what do you think destroyed the weapons depot? and who were the international partners and what were they doing?
2026-02-06 21:35:06
right, obviously we're waiting for africom confirmation
2026-02-06 21:58:48
have you been to africom's website?
2026-02-07 11:27:19
I might take your adviceâŠ
2026-02-07 13:20:22
+48
2026-02-07 16:24:03
So whatâs the theory? Opus 4.6 is rebranded sonnet 5?
2026-02-09 11:33:32
another possible strike that could conceivably be confirmed today: [link removed]
2026-02-09 14:44:42
it is not definitively a us strike, but it is possible that the operation included a us strike
2026-02-09 20:40:27
so you're telling me the press release people are working.,..
2026-02-09 21:23:02
Theyâre in GermanyâŠ
2026-02-13 22:09:27
Link?
2026-02-14 08:34:08
Does anybody actually has a source documenting the Feb 10 strike took place in the daylight ?
2026-02-14 09:17:17
You wanna keep it to yourself ?
2026-02-14 09:25:30
Fair enough
2026-02-14 10:34:37
Iâm the dumbest person alive
2026-02-25 09:53:34
are people thinking the strikes won't be confirmed in time?
2026-02-25 10:35:52
i like the spirit of that theory
2026-02-26 06:32:49
could almost resolve of of this, no?
2026-02-26 07:29:42
Itâs not intentional confirmation
2026-02-26 11:05:23
together with nisa's tweet and knowledge of africom's previous press releases, any reasonable person would conclude that the image is confirmation of a us strike on the 22nd. (but i did not go to cambridge lol)
2026-02-26 14:49:27
me three
2026-02-26 17:32:31
I canât tell if no holders are morons or geniuses
2026-02-26 18:26:02
they obvs seem like dim, but they might be playing 12 dimensional chess
2026-02-26 18:53:49
Like wtf is going on. Does everybody know theyâre not gonna release a press release in time
2026-02-27 09:49:37
Are you actually not worried at all ?
2026-02-27 10:41:49
your confidence gives me streeennnngthhhhh
2026-02-27 10:42:11
(trolls reference that is probably lost on the childless...)
2026-02-27 10:44:02
but for real, i feel like sometimes with the big strikes, they take a while to confirm cause they have to identify everybody they killled, investigate civilian deaths, etc.
2026-02-27 21:52:04
I have no clue whatâs going on
2026-02-27 23:03:55
Well I mean we know the strikes have happened
2026-02-27 23:07:22
You did well to sell đ
2026-03-02 00:45:30
The Israeli official is quoted as saying several strikes were carried out simultaneously
2026-04-16 09:32:04
surely aliaga knows he is going to lose and that's why he's claiming fraud., right? if he thought he had a chance of advancing, he wouldn't call to annul results
2026-04-16 09:44:07
maybe he even knew then he was going to lose. regardless, he's still claiming fraud. and i don't think a candidate who thoguht they were advancing to the next round would do that. do you?
2026-04-16 10:32:57
i don't see a problem with it. you just don't really see winning/advancing candidates claim that the election was fraudulent
2026-04-17 11:00:12
why does this projection give nieto a 13% chance of going to 2nd round? And Belmont a 3% chance?
2026-04-20 21:04:09
Why did you sell?
2026-04-20 21:27:16
Does seem like you started it. Why did you sell?
2026-05-02 22:27:11
Yes! Everybody is ignoring this phrase!
2026-05-06 10:04:13
what's your discord
2026-07-29 19:51:03
You took Bewickâs shares ?
2026-07-30 23:54:46
Oh, thought he had 80k at one point
2026-08-28 22:45:51
@optimus are you on discord?
2026-08-28 23:38:21
Wasnât it Jan 20 to Feb 10?
2026-08-29 12:07:58
Have a look on their websiteâŠ