Account Information
Name:
Raskell
Bio:
811274
Pseudonym:
Second-Hand-Follower
Created:
2026-03-19 21:24:42
Last Activity:
1 week ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@raskellpm
profile-image-6824716-d930090a-c0f4-47e9-be1a-656dc8b798bf.png
Total Profit
$48,044
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$22,596.73
Markets traded
793
Trades
793
Largest win
$4,800.00
Profile views
55
Join date
2026-03-19 21:24:42
All-time rank
3761
All-time PnL
$48,044.23
All-time volume
$1,974,686.68
All-time profit
$48,108.03
Lifetime volume
$1,974,686.68
PnL series latest
$48,108.03
PnL series start
$47,328.41
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$9,289.67
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs. England: O/U 6.5 | Over | 8000 | $4,800.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | Yes | 15159.96 | $3,997.19 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | No | 13472.9658 | $3,154.59 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs. England: O/U 5.5 | Under | 11965.7175 | $-5,911.15 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 10566.2517 | $-4,877.13 |
| Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? | Yes | 5331 | $-2,665.50 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | No | 7474.2378 | $0.68 | $0.94 | $7,025.78 | $1,964.42 |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? | No | 3511.86 | $0.82 | $0.93 | $3,248.47 | $367.83 |
| Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30? | No | 3071.8814 | $0.96 | $0.97 | $2,982.80 | $33.02 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | Yes | 2734.793 | $0.92 | $0.93 | $2,540.62 | $12.92 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026? | Yes | 1215.55 | $0.90 | $0.92 | $1,118.31 | $22.91 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs. England: O/U 6.5 | Over | 8000 | $4,800.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | Yes | 15159.96 | $3,997.19 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | No | 13472.9658 | $3,154.59 |
| Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 4002 | $2,840.84 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | No | 34856.9624 | $2,775.40 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $0.00 | 36.666 | $0.04 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $0.00 | 17.387 | $0.02 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $0.00 | 260 | $0.26 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $0.00 | 87.6 | $0.09 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | $0.00 | 125 | $0.12 |
Recent trades (793)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026? | Yes | $0.88 | 121.36 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026? | Yes | $0.85 | 80.67 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 20, 2026? | Yes | $0.90 | 609.24 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 18, 2026? | Yes | $0.90 | 877.77777 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | Yes | $0.55 | 926.648625 |
Comments
2026-03-29 19:50:02
Shaping Operations in Iran..
2026-03-29 22:29:48
Fragments aka Debris does not count.
2026-03-29 22:34:52
None of these emotional support drones from the Houthis will hit. These aren't serious attacks.
2026-03-30 00:38:05
The American public isn't ready for FPV drone footage showing their sons and brothers getting killed.
2026-03-30 01:14:24
They already lost more than a dozen soldiers without even invading.
2026-03-30 01:53:27
The Cradle is anti Israel. It won't suffice for resolution.
2026-03-30 12:57:17
March 31 is a bond, however your funds will most likely be locked until the 7th because portwatch typically only updates on tuesdays.
2026-03-30 14:00:03
The Mossad made him buy Yes!!!
2026-03-30 16:04:29
Breaking: Theta at an all time high. Yes buyers right now:
2026-03-30 16:14:06
This market is Hezbollah on Israel action, not Israel on Lebanon. You are looking for a different market.
2026-03-30 19:45:21
None
2026-04-01 15:57:34
gopfan is good at predicting non-rigged elections. He lost 170k on the Romanian election. Even if UR gains 20-30 seats, LDPR or New People are slated to gain more. 75cts for UR suggests he skipped reading the rules.
2026-04-01 17:48:42
Possible, 75ct was too much. 50-60cts is more accurate.
2026-04-01 23:32:28
What does the two words with "/" mean? Do either or both terms need to be said?
2026-04-02 01:32:21
None
2026-04-02 01:45:55
People buying yes because of Patrick Webb: Fun fact, this was a tweet of his 3 days ago: "BREAKING: There are alleged alien “breeding programs” where captured aliens are breeding with humans to create a hybrid race [...]"
2026-04-02 02:09:21
None
2026-04-02 05:44:47
31st is not proposable yet. Only by the end of the 3rd. 27th is proposable, someone should suggest it on Discord.
2026-04-02 05:57:15
This is effectively a copy of the US Forces enter Iran market. Everything else is extremely unprobable and worth almost no premium.
2026-04-02 14:00:41
🧵I just finished running a large Monte Carlo simulation, here are my findings:
2026-04-02 14:03:51
There is 2 possibilities. It either happens, or it doesn't:
2026-04-02 14:03:59
100% / 2 = 50%
2026-04-02 21:31:21
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify.
2026-04-03 01:17:40
None
2026-04-03 11:30:36
Kyiv Municipality ~= Kyiv Oblast. You need confirmation of things happening in the city.
2026-04-03 11:43:42
It's obscure Iranian propaganda. Same as the downed F15s. Those images were from the friendly fire incident in Kuwait. I hope your bet is chump change for you because this market is far from over.
2026-04-03 12:29:55
Average Iranian propaganda believer.
2026-04-03 15:05:46
[link removed] Islamic Regime's Deputy Security Governor of Khuzestan:
"This afternoon, several helicopters and warplanes of the U.S. army were observed flying at low altitudes in some parts of the province, but no operation or heliborne landing by hostile forces took place in Khuzestan."
2026-04-03 15:32:36
None
2026-04-03 16:01:20
Ever heard of hoist extraction? No confirmation, no win😉
2026-04-03 16:05:35
"Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify."
2026-04-03 16:31:42
Still decent spot for taking Profits by Yes. UMA bar isn't reached and probably won't be. This missions details will stay classified until the war is over.
2026-04-03 16:32:57
Oh man this market is gonna spawn at least 5 more crybabies posting comments everywhere. "UMA mAnIpUlAtIoN"
2026-04-03 16:50:17
🙂Possible
2026-04-03 17:22:18
Thank you, I forgot to include teleportation tech in my bayesian analysis. More reasons to buy.
2026-04-03 17:30:38
Chance the soldier was rescued by landing troops: 69%
by hoist: 30%
by using a tractor beam (picture below): 1%
Chance the event will be reported to meet UMA standards: 50%
Odds: 50%
2026-04-03 17:56:47
Because the market rules haven't been met. To resolve for this specific situation there needs to be a consensus of credible reporting that during the rescue soldiers left the helicopter to get the pilot. It's possible that the pilot was rescued by hoist and it is possible that the exact details of the rescue will not be released by April 30.
2026-04-03 17:57:24
It's possible that the pilot was rescued by hoist and there is a decent chance that the exact details of the rescue will not be released by April 30.
2026-04-03 18:07:57
Amen
2026-04-03 19:17:32
None
2026-04-03 20:19:52
Where is the clear evidence that the strike was against the city and not the suburbs where the attacks impacted?
2026-04-03 23:03:57
@Car
2026-04-03 23:05:46
Please sell some, trying to buy no..
2026-04-04 18:16:36
Are we really trying to resolve over vague live-blog posts? 💩
2026-04-04 18:35:24
Congratulations🫡
2026-04-04 19:03:41
No waiting for the whales to decide
2026-04-05 06:01:17
Can't wait for the movie of this spectacle.
2026-04-06 12:54:24
Have that many terminals been destroyed?
2026-04-06 15:48:19
uhm?
2026-04-06 15:58:13
Yes
[link removed]: On Saturday morning, April 4, the Russians attacked Kyiv with drones.
vitaliy_klitschko TG: In the Darnytskyi district, according to preliminary information, as a result of the fall of BPLA fragments
DW: In the capital Kyiv and its surrounding areas
euronews: Kyiv and its surrounding region was pummelled by Russian missiles and drones on Friday
ndtv: Kyiv and its surrounding region on Friday
2026-04-06 16:41:30
Yes, Since the last dispute, the EU released their official report: 60.19%
2026-04-06 18:32:54
Mr President, here is a list of words please say all of these tonight ahhh conference. 🤣
2026-04-06 21:30:00
Whats the source for April 6?
2026-04-07 00:03:21
None
2026-04-07 00:08:49
None
2026-04-07 01:08:34
P4. I was there and can confirm we played "the floor is lava" so no one actually stepped on the ground.
2026-04-07 13:48:16
"if the situation gets out of control, Iran’s allies will also close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait"
2026-04-07 14:32:22
"A whole civilisation will die tonight"
2026-04-07 14:34:02
"A whole civilisation will die tonight"
2026-04-07 15:00:57
April 7 - Yes: [link removed] [link removed] [link removed] [link removed]
2026-04-07 16:30:48
Yes, let's resolve based on the outlet that brought us: "These gorgeous spring manicure ideas are blooming brilliant!"
2026-04-07 18:23:23
April 7 - Reuters: [link removed]
Smoke rises following an Israeli strike, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the [link removed] conflict with Iran continues, in southern Lebanon, April 7, 2026
2026-04-07 20:42:37
No not really. Reuters has the date, Al Jazeera has the date, all of the regional news have the date, turkish news has the date. The IDF one was posted on their daily blog about their actions today on the 7th.
2026-04-07 21:48:56
Pakistani General happened
2026-04-07 22:11:56
The Reuters Picture Series Report consists of pictures taken that day. Not only that, the picture is dated: "[...] in southern Lebanon, April 7, 2026"
2026-04-07 22:50:52
None
2026-04-07 23:59:23
Times of Israel: "Meanwhile, the IDF on Tuesday bombed another Litani River bridge" [link removed]
2026-04-08 00:39:24
Reuters:
[link removed]
"Smoke rises following an Israeli strike [...] in southern Lebanon, April 7, 2026"
2026-04-08 11:04:23
Game Over: Institute For The Study of War
[link removed]
The 769th (Hiram) Territorial Brigade (91st Territorial Division) directed an Israeli Air Force (IAF) strike on a Hezbollah fighter in southern Lebanon on April 7.
2026-04-08 19:49:03
Yes
2026-04-08 19:52:40
April 7 is proposable. ISW, Reuters & Times Of Israel explicitly confirmed April 7th. If it wasn't whitelisted I would have long ago.
2026-04-09 00:49:52
[link removed]
[link removed]
On Tuesday evening, before the truce was announced, eight people were killed and 22 others wounded in an Israeli strike
2026-04-09 12:14:38
Yes, unless you have irrefutable proof like a snapshot on a reputable web-archive page.
2026-04-09 13:02:34
The resolution source was and is available. Just no one checked it. And if anyone proposes, there will be a dispute.
2026-04-09 13:05:53
My snapshot shows 6531 at 12 pm on April 7.
2026-04-09 13:20:39
Usually you'd expect a refund. But that will take months of no one proposing.
2026-04-09 13:35:19
It's not automated by Polymarket. Someone proposed the other brackets and left this one on purpose. And no the rules only say the lowest bracket will be resolved if the source becomes unavailable, which it did not.
2026-04-09 13:56:16
It was Scout and he left it on purpose because he did not want to propose an easily disputable market like this. He also confirmed he doesn't have the data for 12PM. This market is going nowhere.
2026-04-09 14:52:28
I am out on April 7. Makes no sense to risk $750 when someone proposes "No" arguing about what constitutes "credible" or "consensus".
2026-04-09 15:32:10
6500-7000 - There were 6531 delays. There is no proof that the number was different at 12PM ET on April 7. 6000-6500 is the incorrect answer for April 6.
2026-04-09 22:45:58
None
2026-04-10 00:16:26
That isn't what the rules say.
2026-04-10 02:03:49
Pay someone to propose and we can see what happens
2026-04-10 03:13:09
Link the flightradar url.
2026-04-10 12:19:13
Why don't you go ahead and fund a proposal?
2026-04-10 19:27:20
You should read the rules. How did you bet so much money and didn't read the rules? "Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution."
2026-04-10 19:41:15
Whats wrong with the food service industry?🤣
2026-04-10 19:55:56
💀
2026-04-10 21:45:59
Breaking: Vance riding on the back of an ICBM to Islamabad.
2026-04-10 23:24:49
ISW - Institute For The Study of War :
The 769th (Hiram) Territorial Brigade (91st Territorial Division) directed an Israeli Air Force (IAF) strike on a Hezbollah fighter in southern Lebanon on April 7.
2026-04-10 23:32:08
Insider traders aren't all smart lol. However this guy isn't one.
2026-04-10 23:44:10
I mean it's not a sure thing. You don't know whats gonna be reported. Could end up being a messy dispute.
2026-04-11 02:33:32
What if the Ghost of Teheran shot down Air Force Two?
2026-04-11 02:40:23
Obviously Israel did airstrike Lebanon on April 7, there is like 10+ unique videos of different incidents. The argument comes down to credible reporting. If anyone proposes this it'll get disputed. If any whale buys in, buy that. Otherwise stay out of this market.
2026-04-11 16:59:00
🙂↔️
2026-04-12 13:38:59
It will be a rude awakening for a lot of hungarians today. Too many stood by watching your country be turned into a swamp and now you will be stuck in the bog.
2026-04-12 14:19:38
Kuwait is the 6th biggest importer of Qatari LNG. There is also some export via pipelines to the UAE and Oman as well as power generation demands domestically.
2026-04-12 14:39:37
Live from the Hungarian voting offices:
2026-04-12 14:42:49
Right, limited production resolves as "Yes".
2026-04-12 16:46:22
None
2026-04-12 17:47:52
None
2026-04-12 19:28:33
Good for hungary.
2026-04-13 00:19:59
I randomly picked. Did I pick well Peruvians?
2026-04-13 13:19:04
Reuters, Bloomberg and Energy Intelligence all independently reported the restarting of 2 trains for limited production. Maybe a Software "Engineer" like you shouldn't bet on markets they are clueless about.
2026-04-13 14:58:06
None
2026-04-15 05:31:21
The AI bot thinks Donald Trump is highly regarded and respected. 🤣
2026-04-15 05:33:03
Donald can't stop himself. He'd need to be incapacitated for a no.
2026-04-15 05:35:30
Openclaw hallucinating again. 🤨
2026-04-15 05:37:34
Yeah this is yet another market that misses the 3 day reporting rule. Ambigious.
2026-04-15 17:31:58
None
2026-04-16 00:56:15
Who is buying Yes on Enrichment of Uranium? Why?
2026-04-16 19:58:45
[link removed]
Mocked Biden as "Sleepy Joe", that is an insulting nickname.
[link removed]
[link removed]
2026-04-16 20:26:01
[link removed] Politco too.
2026-04-16 20:26:16
And the daily caller [link removed]
2026-04-17 09:13:28
The most lax definition of Yes here still requires explicit acceptance of enrichment of Uraniam after a moratorium. A limited moratorium is at most an implicit acceptance. implicit =/= explicit
2026-04-17 09:38:39
He mentioned Sleepy Joe. How is that not an insult?
2026-04-17 12:42:38
Well the resolution soure here is consensus of credible reporting. Truth Social doesn't work. So chances are one day maybe there won't be any credible news outlets that report his insults that day.
2026-04-17 13:11:06
"The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting."
2026-04-17 17:11:12
I am new thats true. Would you mind telling me what I am misunderstanding?
2026-04-18 11:25:07
Are the 20% just fear of PM rugpull rule clarification?
2026-04-19 02:08:34
None
2026-04-19 04:22:05
[link removed]
You think Biden can do that? He can't do that. "laughter"
Trump mocks Biden by implying he can't do a nice signature (because he is old etc.).
2026-04-19 04:23:11
What do you think making fun of Biden being unable to make a nice signature is?
2026-04-19 04:32:02
Read the market rules. It includes mocking.
2026-04-19 04:32:21
The rules are very loose.
2026-04-19 04:35:05
Also FYI I didn't propose. There could be more he said. I don't know who proposed and why.
2026-04-19 04:38:06
Why don't you dispute?
2026-04-19 05:21:36
What do you call this? [link removed] What is it if its not mocking?
2026-04-19 16:44:17
None
2026-04-19 16:46:54
Today NO could actually win.
2026-04-19 22:10:21
Thank you for filling my exit
2026-04-19 22:12:37
Iran has a split personality disorder atm. The IRGC retards want martyrdom or victory, the President wants a future for Persia.
2026-04-19 22:28:40
None
2026-04-19 22:53:03
I sold off like $75
2026-04-20 00:12:31
None
2026-04-20 03:16:08
Revisions count 🤷♂️
2026-04-20 03:21:20
None
2026-04-20 08:46:13
Trump is a changed man!
2026-04-21 02:17:59
That was not today.
2026-04-21 02:22:20
Whats the reason for journey/excursion?
2026-04-21 02:27:14
buy back cheap and dispute, its a scam
2026-04-21 02:52:39
[link removed] if he didn't say it here, it's a scam. checking though
2026-04-21 15:01:22
A callboy
2026-04-22 14:16:39
check his truth social
2026-04-22 14:29:50
You think congress will declare war to make $50k on Polymarket?
2026-04-22 17:23:56
None
2026-04-22 18:58:39
Farsi speakers know, Iran state media has confirmed the ceasefire.
2026-04-23 00:31:49
None
2026-04-23 02:22:08
None
2026-04-23 02:51:54
Sell while you can
2026-04-23 03:04:13
You don't wanna be the No holder arguing in Discord in 3 weeks because you lost 20k. Sell and move on.
2026-04-23 03:31:52
Thats not what is happening, check the Discord.
2026-04-23 03:48:00
Man just switch sides.
2026-04-23 03:51:40
You gotta sell, this isn't about the clock. The ceasefire already got extended.
2026-04-23 03:52:09
Yes
2026-04-23 04:08:19
You should exit, this is a coinflip at best for you
2026-04-23 04:54:07
It doesn't work like you think it does
2026-04-23 05:00:48
You should really sell. Since you don't know what you are up against, you will be kicking yourself if you lose that amount.
2026-04-23 22:11:03
None
2026-04-23 22:22:01
GG
2026-04-24 17:50:27
Somalia doesn't even control the relevant coast.
2026-04-24 18:53:14
[link removed] "Senior Iranian official: No US-Iran talks scheduled in Pakistan"
2026-04-24 18:54:13
Senior Iranian official: No US-Iran talks scheduled in Pakistan
2026-04-25 19:07:24
He is literally giving a speech later today at the Press dinner to clap back at bad press
2026-04-25 19:07:30
Bond
2026-04-27 18:05:31
Thats the score with style control on.
2026-04-27 21:05:50
This will resolve to yes because I posted 15 jokes as comments to this market.
2026-04-28 14:13:17
Not a joke. True and real. Sell and switch while you can.
2026-04-28 14:14:33
The source of those reports are the tweets.
2026-04-28 22:56:45
Real degenerate gambling betting on April 30
2026-04-29 07:44:22
What the hell are you saying? Also who uses "—" except bots? Are you an OpenClaw AI bot?
2026-04-29 07:53:10
Since this doesnt seem to have affected many people (no news about it whatsoever), I think there is a high chance it gets revised when it gets resolved, however if it gets resolved as critical and later revised, we still win. Just need to make sure to document it immediately.
2026-04-29 09:34:15
Resolved as critical. Also archived the page.
2026-04-29 09:59:39
Are you legally blind?
2026-04-29 10:07:03
[link removed] here you go, I think you might be colorblind.
2026-04-29 23:12:10
Where are you live streaming?
2026-04-29 23:13:42
What do you do for work? 😮
2026-04-30 00:10:37
None
2026-04-30 00:50:19
Thank you for $5, I will be buying a pack of Pokemon cards with it tomorrow. I hope I pull a charizard! Wish me luck!
2026-04-30 13:37:57
This is it huh? No more bonds :(
2026-04-30 20:04:57
None
2026-04-30 20:10:52
Oh shit its about to flip. OH NO
2026-04-30 23:23:17
"When they call you William the Conqueror, generally speaking, you're not gonna be too nice." Trump insulting William the Conqueror on April 28 🥲
2026-05-01 02:03:51
"When they call you William the Conqueror, generally speaking, you're not gonna be too nice." Bos forgot about that one 😏
2026-05-01 07:26:08
May will get proposed when this one here is through.
2026-05-01 10:14:57
Check the UMA discord, there is a lot of evidence and reporting showing that Qatar has started limited production.
2026-05-01 16:55:19
Pretty disingenuous to claim its all the same leak and data. Energy Intelligence cites it's own sources. Reuters and Energy Intelligence are very very reputable outlets. Qatar is producing, that is the truth.
2026-05-01 17:36:00
No they don't. Energy Intelligence says it talked to their own sources. What are the chances Reuters and Energy Intelligence have the same sources? Low.
2026-05-01 17:36:46
They are saying 2 trains have started up. Obviously they are doing limited LNG production to keep topped up because they are deliverying to Qatar and using some domestically.
2026-05-01 17:37:50
This market isn't about Qatar returning to full capacity, its about Qatar producing at all. All information available points to that.
2026-05-01 17:42:22
"a consensus of credible reporting may also be used"
2026-05-01 17:54:20
Reuters, Energy Intelligence, [link removed] independently confirmed that 2 trains were restarted. If you look at any industry terminal for lng intelligence, you will find Qatar producing LNG right now, just very little comparably.
2026-05-01 18:29:42
Why would they? "Hey we are producing a little bit of LNG". It's a Qatari state owned business, not a publicly traded company.
2026-05-01 18:31:08
Full scale production hasn't resumed but they are producing LNG. The market is about producing LNG at all.
2026-05-01 18:58:21
Because the resumption is extremely limited. There is no value in announcing that whatsoever for them.
2026-05-04 14:23:27
The deadline is irrelevant
2026-05-08 12:59:30
The files aren't new. Someone dispute!
2026-05-08 20:14:36
Arbitrary. It could stay Major because people already logged in are fine.
2026-05-08 22:23:41
Posting that picture is a public statement. It should go yes.
2026-05-08 22:25:36
Not to mention its a written statement in the picture.
2026-05-08 23:07:29
Jerome "Too Late and Won't Leave" Powell
2026-05-12 19:30:51
FYI Spanish and WHO officials say the one patient that got tested "mildly positive" according to the US, didn't get tested positive. They say the results were inconclusive and so the patient isn't on the WHOs tally for all related Hanta cases.
2026-05-12 19:35:13
The Spanish government said an epidemiologist from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control assessed the Americans: "A diagnostic test was carried out and sent to two laboratories; in one of them, the result was considered by the US authorities to be a weak positive, although we did not consider it conclusive," it said.
"The second test was negative. The person in question showed no symptoms whilst in Cape Verde; however, the US authorities have decided to treat the case as positive."
2026-05-12 19:49:36
Wow this Finnish song is mid ah.
2026-05-12 20:45:02
ESC is unbearable to watch ngl
2026-05-13 01:25:01
There is an ongoing investigation into Southampton. Boro is continuing to train anticipating a dq of Soutampton.
2026-05-13 16:51:55
To take profits.
2026-05-14 02:45:09
There will be more handshakes today. If there is a press conference or definitely before the scheduled dinner.
2026-05-14 14:36:40
He said Ping, not Peng.
2026-05-14 14:56:22
source?
2026-05-15 11:58:23
Egabriel, tear down that wall!
2026-05-15 12:09:14
it stops being nonsense when they carry assault rifles and breach buildings
2026-05-15 12:58:41
Can we get funny jokes like on the Ursula market.
2026-05-15 13:14:11
None
2026-05-15 14:01:44
That was not live. There are so man supposed channels "live".
2026-05-15 14:12:05
It wasn't live. There is no reception or internet in that tea house.
2026-05-15 17:02:49
GG
2026-05-16 21:25:43
Naughty naughty!
2026-05-17 14:25:15
None
2026-05-17 14:58:53
just sell your shares at 99.7ct
2026-05-17 21:57:42
[link removed]
2026-05-18 02:35:57
Still not intercepted. They will intercept them near Gaza.
2026-05-18 15:45:35
I miscalculated and now I am screwed😩
2026-05-18 15:47:50
I fucked it up
2026-05-18 17:24:44
It looks like they added back a lot of the square boxes they removed for the competition. Not sure about 250k any more.
2026-05-19 06:04:11
who
2026-05-19 15:46:39
Nah, the flotilla as a formation has ceased to exist. If it gets towed then the boat is now part of a new IDF flotilla. The spirit of the market is obvious.
2026-05-19 15:59:22
The physical event has ceased to become possible with the flotilla no longer existing. The formation is gone.
2026-05-19 21:55:46
The ship has ceased to be a part of the flotilla as soon as it got captured. The rules talk about "A flotilla organized" which refers to the naval formation. The ship is no longer a part of that when it fell into IDF hands as a prize [link removed].edu/wex/prize_law
2026-05-19 23:46:06
Unfortunately the Robots have been performing under target for the last 12 hours now. I was hoping to see a turn around but this trend is bad. I dont think 250k is happening any more
2026-05-20 00:26:09
Yes, that was during the human vs robot competition.
2026-05-20 02:48:54
One reset and he is a dud again. Seen this way too many times..
2026-05-20 17:28:08
The full time average includes the human vs robot section where the square package count was significantly lower and speeds way higher. Yes is possible but a coin flip.
2026-05-20 20:00:41
LLMs give horrible advice.
2026-05-20 20:01:28
This market is over already. It will be proposed on June 1st.
2026-05-21 05:12:10
None
2026-05-21 20:39:44
Just as I fucking converted off of NO. super amazing luck. Couldn't he have announced that 5 minutes early? Money donated to walrus, fantastic.
2026-05-21 20:40:16
None
2026-05-21 21:25:41
They are going to let it get to 250k. The Polymarket bet was up hours before they announced the continuous stream. That isn't coincidence.
2026-05-21 21:53:14
4 days of continuos OCR data captured every 10 seconds. It's more than on pace for 10PM.
2026-05-21 23:54:04
Either the CEO puts on a little show, or he doesn't. At current pace 20 minutes of yapping and Yes wins 250k.
2026-05-22 00:42:42
less than 18 minutes at current pace
2026-05-22 05:22:40
Bessent announced it. He said they will mutually cut or reduce tariffs. Thats enough for this market. Definitive just means the announcement has to say that it will happen. Bessent says "will".
2026-05-22 06:04:21
In the Reuters exclusive interview, Bessent announced they **will** cut tariffs mutually. That is enough for the market conditions. There is a different market if you wanna bet on if it actually happens here: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-may-31
2026-05-22 06:49:57
[link removed] - "U.S., China to cut or eliminate tariffs on initial $30 billion of goods, Bessent says"
2026-05-22 07:45:39
People missed it. Also a lot of people fundamentally misunderstand announcement markets.
2026-05-22 07:46:08
[link removed] - "U.S., China to cut or eliminate tariffs on initial $30 billion of goods, Bessent says" - Tell me how you know better than the Journalist who interviewed Bessent in person
2026-05-22 08:17:23
Bro you really think you are a better quoter than the Reuters journalist?
2026-05-22 14:18:59
Scott Bessent announced it's going to happen. This market was about whether or not it will be announced. It doesn't need to be a fully fledged out official announcement, there is other markets for that. The burden some people are trying to put on announcement markets would make them DOA.
2026-05-22 14:20:46
Scott Bessent is in the Administration...
2026-05-22 14:25:11
Stop expanding the meaning of definitive. Definitive means that Bessent needed to say it's going to happen, not that it might happen. Announcement markets are mention markets plus. If you want a "definitive tariffs" market there is one here: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-may-31
2026-05-22 15:30:52
In the Reuters interview he announced they will mutually cut probably 30 billion.
2026-05-22 15:44:50
Secretary of the Treasury says we will reduce tariffs, probably around 30 billion. People: SCAM SCAM!! 😂
2026-05-23 07:45:02
[link removed] This is the official source for Iranian NOTAMs. Iran hasn't published the recent NOTAM here? Odd.
2026-05-23 08:52:20
Spokesperson for the Civil Aviation Organization: Issuance of new NOTAM is false; flights will proceed according to schedule
2026-05-23 09:42:39
Iran denies issuing this NOTAM.
2026-05-23 10:23:10
CIA FAA Fake news NOTAM. The iranians deny issuing a NOTAM.
2026-05-23 10:35:47
Iran is denying it all. This market is over unless Trump starts striking.
2026-05-23 13:32:03
The news got it wrong. All that Iran did was reopen another airport.
2026-05-31 20:49:33
add me on discord, I can get it proposed if you have proof - ronin331
2026-06-01 02:43:37
Her fate is ambigious.
2026-06-01 17:46:55
That date is irrelevant. I am sorry you fell for it. Hope you make it back bro: Just size smaller next time and read Discord.
2026-06-02 22:17:03
That FBI report is going straight to the bin.
2026-06-02 22:21:14
Don't worry Yes holders. A Lobotomy-Van has been dispatched to your location. Everything will be fine!
2026-06-04 01:24:06
Haha I took your money.
2026-06-04 01:29:57
You need some action in class. Hire a teacher with the money you earned.
2026-06-07 00:11:35
Why does UN not count?
2026-06-07 00:25:53
why not bro
2026-06-07 00:34:00
Of course it does, a meeting at a fence at Gitmo between Generals counted lol.
2026-06-07 00:41:46
Yeah this is an extremely clean strike. Especially with the Gitmo precedent.
2026-06-07 00:45:56
They are officials representing their country. They aren't civilians, they are elected officials.
2026-06-07 00:47:03
I think Kracken bought thinking we were buying because of Abramovich. Kracken knows he is cooked
2026-06-07 00:54:20
Bro a meeting between Generals (who are also not "authorised") at Guantanamo counted.
2026-06-07 01:23:56
The rules are intended to be this open.
2026-06-07 01:35:30
Polymarket decided what they are looking for with the Cuba precedent. People might feel the intention is different but it isn't.
2026-06-07 22:51:24
Hey disputer, you forgot june 22. You just lost by default. GG
2026-06-07 23:01:17
They closed the entire west and some of the east.
2026-06-07 23:23:53
lmfao
2026-06-08 07:28:06
The game is cancelled, but keep buying gng 🥀
2026-06-08 10:48:05
The houthis are delusional
2026-06-08 16:38:07
oh shit I made a huge mistake
2026-06-13 00:12:37
He mocked George III
2026-06-17 13:00:15
They just fully closed all airports in the west. No more exceptions. That means 2 of the major airports listed are closed now. GG
2026-06-17 13:23:35
They were allowed to operate from sunrise to sunset.
2026-06-17 13:37:10
They issued NOTAMs
2026-06-17 15:24:31
Last closure was 5 hours that resolved this market to yes.
2026-06-17 15:41:12
Not true, it was previously: REF NOTAM A1178/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR
ARE CLOSED EXCEPT:
- OIAA, OISS, OICC, OIAW, OIFM, OISR, OIAM, OISL, AND OICI OPERATING SUNRISE TO SUNSET (HJ)
2026-06-17 15:41:35
You see how it says "EXCEPT" - They werent all closed.
2026-06-17 15:50:07
5.5 hours is longer than the last closure that counted btw. They closed all airports in the west, even those that were allowed under an exception.
2026-06-17 16:26:39
2 major airports need to be closed. 2 major airports were closed that were previously open. SYZ and IFN
2026-06-17 17:45:12
MOU text got released and the US has agreed to withdraw. When they withdraw doesnt matter according to the rules. They formally agreed to withdraw.
2026-06-21 09:34:35
At this pace chances are very good something will be signed together by July 7th.
2026-06-22 13:25:38
FYI the MOU arguably counts as an official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions
2026-06-24 17:12:23
Fable is back on Amazon Bedrock
2026-06-24 17:36:53
True
2026-06-26 12:30:29
🫢
2026-06-26 12:37:54
Fuck yeah I fucked up
2026-06-26 13:04:52
Yes they are diplomatic lmao. Yes it resolved the last market. There is a Russia-Ukraine peace talks market separate from this one.
2026-06-26 13:10:33
There is no confirmed meeting in 2 weeks afaik. Whats the point of having a June 30 market if you think anything that happens too soon doesn't count?
2026-06-26 13:27:38
Chat AI is insanely misleading. It tells you what you want to hear.
2026-06-27 16:57:42
WSJ: "An Iranian drone struck a tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. official said."
2026-06-27 17:27:09
The "Iran successfully targets shipping on...?" has cheaper shares, dont let the arb bot get it all
2026-06-27 20:17:36
No he didn't. He announced his resignation as PM and resigned as labour leader. The actual resignation as PM happens as soon as Burnham is chosen and Starmer goes to the King.
2026-06-28 13:51:53
The German basic treaty had very similar language and was explicitly not de-jure recognition. De-facto recognition should probably be irrelevant to this market because there is a lot of paths to de-facto recognition.
2026-06-30 23:04:25
Its gonna be re-enabled soon but not tonight. Their new user agreement only goes into affect in 3 days.
2026-06-30 23:05:12
* 7 days
2026-07-02 15:29:34
ft article "How the US-Iran deal came together"
2026-07-03 16:01:22
they are not gonna close the full air space lol
2026-07-03 17:04:06
Why would the Doha talks not count? Even CNN says both high-level and technical talks were happening.
2026-07-03 21:08:07
The rules are different now
2026-07-04 14:25:41
I am flipping yes as soon as you sell buddy
2026-07-05 14:51:26
Weather forecasting is a pseudoscience
2026-07-08 17:38:04
Trump at G7 indicated they will meet and negotiate. Trump is fast at these things. EASY
2026-07-09 01:16:23
oh shit I accidentally proposed, please dont dispute 🙂
2026-07-13 13:02:08
Youve been warned. There is definitely a meeting soon. You may be confusing this market with the peace talks market.
2026-07-13 19:33:00
uff clueless locals..
2026-07-13 23:44:28
its the one where they lift the trophy
2026-07-14 10:25:45
Diplomatic meetings include a lot more than just peace talks.
2026-07-14 10:36:11
There is a diplomatic meeting soon. It includes negotiations between appointed officials of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Very likely this month. It's not a meeting about peace talks. Do not come crying and say it's a scam when it happens.
2026-07-14 10:36:53
There is reason https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716 the peace talks market is much cheaper.
2026-07-14 10:50:32
IMO this will go no unless Trump actually stands with the team when they lift the trophy for the main photo. Thats the spirit of this market.
2026-07-15 10:20:43
Well your wrong, their Human Rights Ombudsmen occasionally meet and negotiate conditions and exchanges since recently.
2026-07-15 21:18:06
lmfao this market already resolved twice off their meetings
2026-07-23 13:06:20
Yes price has been completely detached from reality. Trump can open the literal gates of hell and they wont close the full FIR. 15% chance tops till July 31 for a Mossad joker.
2026-07-24 21:10:51
Dont hold the bag bro. This will get sooo much reporting.
2026-07-24 21:12:46
And people said that crypto faucets are a thing of the past.
2026-07-24 21:14:32
Tell that to Bel with a straight face when we have Reuters and the AFP report it. Good Luck
2026-07-24 21:21:19
Who cares about misresolves. You've been here for a while, you know whats up now.
2026-07-24 22:19:28
1. February precedent. 2. Tell that to bel with a straight face
2026-07-24 22:34:34
The UAE isnt even a part of the Saudi coalition any more. It's just Saudi Arabia and Yemen lmao.
2026-07-27 17:27:20
Noobs airdropping money again.
2026-07-27 19:32:07
Ok scammer
2026-07-27 23:05:56
Stop the AI SPAM scammer
2026-07-28 18:09:03
A Critical Cloudflare Incident is ongoing
2026-07-28 18:51:38
it got downgraded
2026-07-29 23:48:37
I showed this market to the asylum warden and I got 5 extra years.
2026-07-30 01:20:45
Ace revealed, no is done. Good night everyone.
2026-08-01 14:56:22
RIP they postponed it. It was scheduled and all. 😭
2026-08-01 17:44:09
Round two 🤑
2026-08-05 13:29:47
What manipulation? Buying shares and losing $5.5k?? 😭
2026-08-05 14:19:44
Weather forecasting is a pseudoscience!
2026-08-07 19:02:40
Imagine trying to rulecuck in the bel-era.
2026-08-08 00:45:04
Nah I do not use the rules against the spirit of the market.
2026-08-11 03:03:31
insane luck
2026-08-12 05:55:17
I would not dispute but if you cant help it, ill take the money.
2026-08-12 15:09:48
Brave! 👏🙇
2026-08-12 15:17:33
I proposed because he called Mamdani a jihadist (and the Huffpost reported it). But I am too scared of the Japanese salaryman to fight this.
2026-08-12 15:18:06
I am gonna have to pick up a lot of quarters infront of the steamroller to make this back now. gg
2026-08-12 16:29:17
The interview was on the 10th
2026-08-12 16:41:40
Yeah it was released on the 11th but it was recorded on the 10th unfortunately. Check out Wayne Allyn Roots youtube.
2026-08-12 16:41:58
August 11th didn't work so August 12th it is now!
2026-08-12 16:43:33
Attacks on ships do not count.
2026-08-13 14:41:53
No holders may enjoy their funds locked up by PM. The markets team has trapped you
2026-08-13 14:42:27
4 months for 5% at least isn't horrible.
2026-08-13 21:36:27
You guys are crazy!
2026-08-13 22:44:42
It was in the video he posted. The content of videos counts even if he didnt say it himself.
2026-08-15 19:22:52
So first its scamming for waiting for EOD to propose. Now its scamming to propose not long after a strike? Come on.
2026-08-15 22:14:38
It was aliens
2026-08-16 02:00:18
Iran has not denied anything. The attack was attributed by the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain.
2026-08-16 02:49:48
Attribution is enough. The rules do not require Iran to confirm.
2026-08-16 03:34:01
iirc that went no because the attribution was ambigious and could have been proxies
2026-08-16 20:14:15
lol
2026-08-16 20:16:19
🤓☝️ "Barack Ravid said"
2026-08-16 20:17:25
same 🥰
2026-08-16 22:32:19
Free money 😮
2026-08-16 22:34:52
Is anyone serious on no? Or just lottery-ticket gamblers?
2026-08-17 08:18:27
Ive got some fat orders up. Feel free to fill me.
2026-08-17 08:19:18
I am gonna speculate all over you 🤤
2026-08-17 20:00:21
You should make a twitter post about it. Maybe the price goes down decently. Id appreciate that.
2026-08-17 21:15:32
You need to upgrade your tooling or whatever
2026-08-18 19:38:29
Where can I find the match data for that game?
2026-08-18 19:42:16
Is this match even real though? I can not find it on HLTV
2026-08-18 19:55:36
Where on Faceit?
2026-08-18 20:27:40
Internal waters and territorial waters are not the same thing
2026-08-19 00:16:16
Totality of information proposal is allowed starting in 22 hours.
2026-08-19 18:23:10
dip it further
2026-08-19 18:25:24
You guys are actually dumb. The drone has already been confirmed Russian. The market is being proposed in 4 hours. Youve thrown enough money away.
2026-08-19 22:28:12
I forgot about those orders, I legit did not want to sell. Anyway time for you to dispute Spirit. Evidence is in discord.
2026-08-19 23:36:03
Matay airdrop lfg. Dude couldve just looked in discord ☠️
2026-08-19 23:41:36
check the UMA discord, we have official governmental confirmation its a russian drone
2026-08-19 23:53:40
You are misreading the resolution source
2026-08-19 23:54:04
Thats a net -20.4 but the approval rating is on the graph.. 38.1%
2026-08-20 00:05:25
Moldovan Authorities have confirmed it and Romanian Authorities accidentally confirmed it fresh data released to the Romanian press
2026-08-20 00:05:41
through*
2026-08-20 00:08:51
💀 Snow-White is pressed
2026-08-20 01:09:12
In Romania and in Moldova there is a strong consensus that its Russian. Also there is a consensus its a Geran-2. That means it is a Russian drone. It's like saying a Leclerc isnt French.
2026-08-20 01:10:05
A Geran-2 is russian. Not to mention Moldova and Romania confirmed it was russian and there is lots of reporting calling it Russian. The totality of information says its Russian.
2026-08-20 01:11:12
Also your UMA post is AI slop.
2026-08-20 04:19:10
There is a previous polymarket clarification that says the KRG is credible. The UAE confirmed it too. Sell while you can imo.
2026-08-20 09:36:18
Thank you dear leader!
2026-08-20 13:04:21
$0 pnl. "It won't qualify." ... Yep this guy sits in Moscow.
2026-08-21 07:47:34
Romanias mapn confirmed it had explosives
2026-08-28 05:20:15
That was almost 4 days ago bro
2026-08-29 15:33:57
Yeah you can. Go to their site and search for Lake America. Just because the map has not updated yet, does not mean GNIS has not updated their databases as they reported.
2026-08-29 15:34:21
Thank you Gemini Flash 2.5 discount edition.
2026-08-29 15:35:01
ask GPT you can get answer why not august 31!!!
2026-08-29 15:35:49
On the map, but not in the search where it is updated and which matters.
2026-08-30 04:38:37
You lost. Because GNIS was updated days ago and you refused to believe it.
2026-08-30 04:39:26
I wanna personally thank Google Gemini for spreading delusional advice
2026-08-30 04:42:11
Yo idk, I did not propose it. But I will find out.
2026-08-30 05:13:50
I was warning people in the comments lol