Account Information
Name:
mombil
Bio:
Halt Stop
Pseudonym:
Common-Nitrogen
Created:
2024-07-19 09:38:26
Last Activity:
22 hours ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@mombil
images.jpeg
Total Profit
$495,865
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$423,864.09
Markets traded
2,864
Trades
2,831
Largest win
$56,477.99
Profile views
29,113
Join date
2024-07-19 09:38:26
All-time rank
425
All-time PnL
$495,864.54
All-time volume
$43,828,626.73
All-time profit
$506,005.65
Lifetime volume
$43,199,080.00
PnL series latest
$505,405.80
PnL series start
$511,198.70
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$11,514.98
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 158254.45 | $56,477.99 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 113573.242613 | $37,618.62 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 110308.363058 | $30,929.41 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 525169.396571 | $-77,875.88 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 705659.022252 | $-45,893.38 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 138412.838832 | $-35,325.26 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 280000 | $0.50 | $0.84 | $233,940.00 | $93,940.00 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 54999.9971 | $0.82 | $0.96 | $52,937.50 | $7,837.55 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 280000 | $0.50 | $0.16 | $46,060.00 | $-93,940.00 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 294447.8084 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $15,605.73 | $4,203.23 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 25000 | $0.44 | $0.28 | $7,125.00 | $-3,791.65 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 158254.45 | $56,477.99 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 113573.242613 | $37,618.62 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 110308.363058 | $30,929.41 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 181712.18662 | $26,998.51 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 51816.722971 | $26,968.78 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 hours ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 27.8395 | $27.84 | |||
| 2 hours ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 1.7209 | $1.72 | |||
| 22 hours ago | TRADE | SELL | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | $0.20 | 22.5 | $4.50 |
| 1 day ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 27.9136 | $27.91 | |||
| 1 day ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 2.5862 | $2.59 |
Recent trades (2831)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 hours ago | SELL | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | $0.20 | 22.5 |
| 1 day ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | Yes | $0.01 | 1347.76 |
| 1 day ago | SELL | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | $0.13 | 110 |
| 1 day ago | SELL | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | $0.20 | 7 |
| 1 day ago | SELL | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | No | $0.84 | 10.357141 |
Comments
2024-07-27 20:54:33
congrats, how did u survive until the very end?
2024-07-27 21:14:43
well you need it with ur -$8,590.46 profit
2024-07-28 13:35:18
75K and 80K are sadly unlikely but 3% in +80hrs is still more than doable, 37% chance atm seems about just right.
2024-07-29 13:10:09
75K next after a quick cooldown
2024-07-29 13:15:18
sir it is high price not closing price for a 1 min candle
2024-07-29 13:24:00
You should not bet if u dont understand the rules. There are 4 different prices 1.) O for opening 2.) H for HIGH (!!!!) 3.) L for Low 4. C for closing - your welcome
2024-07-29 13:26:37
For the people that bet no, at least you will gain some knowledge with your loss. There are 4 different prices 1.) O for opening 2.) H for HIGH (!!!!) 3.) L for Low 4. C for closing - rules say clearly the "high" price needs to be 70K.
2024-07-29 13:52:18
will you pay the wasted $750 after the decline that dispute? Read the post below and you will understand there is no need to dispute unless you want to burn $750
2024-07-29 17:40:28
pretty simple dude: https://tradingview.com/chart/YcqM922J/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT 1 min candle at 13:05/06 or 1:05/06 will do it both
2024-08-02 22:09:40
NEWS: Harris and @PeteButtigieg met today for about 90 minutes about the VP job, sources tell me. The meeting was not at Harris's home in Washington. Source: [link removed]
2024-08-02 22:19:39
I feel sorry for you if you believe that Harris would inform the Mayor of Philadelphia 4 days prior to an event in her city about her decision 😬
2024-08-02 22:38:45
Yes he was, but what happened before or after? One event got cancelled - [link removed]
2024-08-03 21:34:52
Me too :)
2024-08-05 19:43:20
obviously he would not cancel that before the announcement, whoever the pick is.
2024-08-05 19:45:14
sounds like a reliable source son
2024-08-05 22:27:05
Secret Service just picked Walz up: [link removed] [link removed]
2024-08-06 03:54:26
Walz has no public schedule for tomorrow. - [link removed]
2024-08-27 19:45:15
Sir he announced to make them co chair for the transition team, that is as far away from a cabinet position as a cleaner is from being CEO of a company
2024-09-08 09:23:25
New NYT/Siena poll Trump +2!
2024-09-09 11:08:30
There was a thing called COVID19 in 2020... Obviously thats why they didnt shake hands during the 2020 VP debate
2024-09-09 14:24:26
New HarvardHarris poll (50-50) will bring it down to 1.3
2024-09-09 18:47:57
Pew Research Poll will bring it down to 1.2! New Rasmussen poll seems to be at least +3 Trump (from +1)
2024-09-09 18:48:44
Rasmussen preview: https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1832959456818127025
2024-09-09 19:52:45
as I said. Rasmussen is +4,5 Trump right now which would lead to 0.8-0.9
2024-09-10 06:53:13
lol idk whats wrong with my positive PNL or my shares, I started seriously trading after Joe dropped out, been consistently been winning since then, Kamala veepstakes went well also
2024-09-10 07:48:29
when are polls old enough to be removed?
2024-09-10 10:17:53
Marist is +1 Kamala, not included so far but will be later, so will it will go from 1.18 (13/11) to 1.166 (14/11)
2024-09-10 10:37:19
fair point, not sure about that
2024-09-11 01:29:03
easy win
2024-09-11 14:30:42
I believe the new YouGov Poll for the Economist 45-45 down from +2 Harris last time will not count in the RCP average :(
2024-09-12 16:31:10
Rasmussen: +2 Trump (49/47) = down to 1.2
2024-09-12 17:45:40
ur counting Rasmussen twice buddy (the -1 after +2)
2024-09-12 18:10:03
Morning Consult +5
2024-09-12 18:10:25
its 1.4666 now - i guess goes to 1.5
2024-09-13 12:35:56
i say THANK YOU
2024-09-13 14:03:04
The fight is on - BasedBoi vs. YatSen
2024-09-16 17:12:05
Trump + 0.1 (59.7) today
2024-09-17 13:33:48
GME FedWatch Update 65-35
2024-09-18 07:48:43
Most likely +2
2024-09-19 09:07:02
Fresh NYT/Siena Poll: Post-Debate – Harris vs. Trump Tied Nationally, 47-47%
2024-09-19 09:17:20
Will update to 2.1 later with the new NYT Siena Poll (47-47)
2024-09-19 09:29:02
https://scri.siena.edu/2024/09/19/new-york-times-siena-national-survey-of-likely-voters-9-19-24/
2024-09-19 09:38:59
Rasmussen is at exactly +2 right now (+8/days). it will need a +5 the last day to make it to +3 (+13/5 days)
2024-09-19 09:54:06
its probably priced correctly, she would need 3 strong polls with around +5 each
2024-09-19 10:05:30
Rasmussen +3 would reverse the NYT Poll and we are back to 2.0
2024-09-19 12:42:20
RCP is on it, counting the NYT Siena poll twice, so it updated to 1.9 instead of 2.1 - are they serious?
2024-09-19 13:14:41
the old +1 Trump was removed
2024-09-19 14:03:51
Rasmussen just now: There has been no change in the race for the White House as former President Donald Trump maintains a narrow ead over Vice President Kamala Harris. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
2024-09-19 14:04:10
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1836766518312673781
2024-09-19 14:05:42
WTF is going on today, RCP fucking up, Rasmussen staying flat after they published different data? idk what to believe anymore
2024-09-19 14:14:20
absolute Joke of a pollster +6 -6 +6 +2 +8 - and they average it +2 as it should be +3.4 lol and they constantly complain in Twitter about how bad other pollster are
2024-09-19 14:38:41
Well everything is possible today it seems... i hope not
2024-09-19 15:43:34
RCP Dev is eating lunch and taking a shit, he will continue his shit show afterwards
2024-09-20 14:11:37
Dear RCP dev no update just before 12, thank you and enjoy your much earned weekend!
2024-09-24 12:22:37
Harvard-Harris 9/4 - 9/5 in the trash now which makes it 2.3 - but they still keep the Emerson and NPR which are just as old
2024-09-24 13:38:05
the other two gone makes it 2.5 - 3+ is a stretch right now, she would need 4 new polls +5 each
2024-09-24 18:52:08
what exactly? RCP dev just randomly trashing around 8 polls together?
2024-09-24 18:56:51
I dont think anyone can see those completely random poll drops coming, there is no logic or system behind it...
2024-09-24 19:03:18
he is not done yet i guess, last thursday was insane
2024-09-24 20:00:26
Why not bring back the dropped polls?
2024-09-25 15:10:06
everything is possible tbh, if they ditch the last 2 polls it goes up to 2.5 haha but also 1.9 is possible, you just dont know what they do
2024-09-26 10:58:13
Rasmussen was on average 3.4 last week but still made it +2 - its the same magic box RCP is, you just dont know what happens
2024-09-26 10:59:53
also last 3 out makes it 2.3...
2024-09-26 12:06:25
Do ur calculation for 9/12 - 9/18 - daily average is - 3.2 but they put out +2
2024-09-26 12:07:45
They will probably also remove the +4 Harris Yahoo News and keep the +3 Trump Atlas forever
2024-09-30 18:25:24
depends on what polls RCP randomly leaves up and which get dropped after just 1 week...
2024-10-01 12:16:55
There we go: newer Yahoo news +4 Harris dropped, older Atlas Intel +3 Trump kept
2024-10-01 12:29:10
@aaron28a I dont think it will be 1-1.4, but i think the chance is higher than the 3c i bought, RCP is just too unpredictable, they just ditched yahoo news and keep atlas which is older
2024-10-01 17:19:25
If they drop the Atlas Intel it will update to exactly 2.5 👀 But they may keep that poll forever
2024-10-03 08:35:43
Sadly yes. This market is essentially just about when they drop that precious Atlas Poll, it could be today, as I expect some new polls in general, but it could also be up another 1-2 weeks...
2024-10-03 13:09:12
Another bias: This time RCP takes the "Combined Presidential Vote " for Emerson (only +1 not +2) last time they took the "Select choice" poll which had her up 2 instead of 3 with the combined presidential vote they are using this time, it doesnt get any more biased than this
2024-10-03 20:04:41
Marist which just dropped
2024-10-03 21:24:33
The RCP scam continues
2024-10-07 21:05:14
+ our dear RCP dev and the mad RCP bias towards Trump - btw. the Data For Progress Poll (Oct. 4th - +3 Harris https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2024/9/dfp_post_vp_debate_tabs.pdf) is listed in the "framework" of the site but not visible nor counting towards the average...
2024-10-08 09:16:17
So u know about it before it spreads around Twitter - NYT/Siena: Harris 49 - Trump 46
2024-10-08 09:25:27
No it will stay 2.1 if no other polls drop - RCP always rounds the candidates numbers first, so it will be 2.1
2024-10-08 09:26:08
I wonder if they have the shame to take the RV numbers this time as it is only 48-46 - in the past they have always used the LV numbers which are 49-46
2024-10-08 09:52:47
Morning Consult remains at + 5 (51-46) this week
2024-10-08 11:01:41
2.0 now with Ipsos +2
2024-10-08 20:29:54
Im sorry for your $16 loss.
2024-10-09 05:02:37
lol, this is not how Polymarket works - you will learn quickly
2024-10-09 18:02:33
Quinnipiac Wisconsin: Trump 48%, Harris 46%, other candidates 2% [link removed]
2024-10-09 20:35:51
wrong rally buddy
2024-10-09 20:36:07
lol wrong rally bud
2024-10-09 20:38:12
free advice: it is 0 - because the scranton rally is not the rally this market is about, its the one after
2024-10-17 08:20:48
Tipp down to +3 which makes it 1.5
2024-10-17 09:30:44
Actually wanted to avoid betting the RCP markets again but it is what it is haha. CNN is long overdue and they were among best poll for Trump last time it dropped - Atlas should also drop within the next 4 days or so. I also have NY Post on my watchlist
2024-10-17 15:04:08
1.5
2024-10-17 15:05:30
finally updated
2024-10-18 07:45:58
Joined the party late this week and the risk reward for shares over 60c like for 1.5-1.9 is not worth it in these RCP market, there is too much that can go wrong
2024-10-18 08:29:45
TIPP down to 49-47
2024-10-18 10:11:33
495 votes for Harris = 49,5 = 50 - 1 vote short of 49-49
2024-10-18 18:20:37
Sorry to say, this market is over
2024-10-19 21:26:58
Atlas Intel: Trump +3
2024-10-19 21:28:26
= 1.0, but they will def delete a huge stack Im guessing the 3 ties + CBS and Marist
2024-10-21 11:10:37
USA Today & Suffolk: 50-49 for Harris
2024-10-21 12:40:16
1-2 new polls and the last 4 will be removed for sure.
2024-10-21 14:49:44
Coming back to the discussion about a 269-269 tie. It was said, that this case is covered with the Dems 0-4 bet, but the Rules clearly state, that this only covers a tie which leads to a Dem win "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 0 and 4 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"." Or what am I missing there?
2024-10-24 11:02:26
CNBC +2 Trump - if they replace the last one it is TRUMP lead +0.1
2024-10-24 11:33:00
Either +0.1 Trump or +0.2 Harris
2024-10-25 09:05:09
NYT 48-48 - Tipp 49-47
2024-10-25 10:04:56
Its out now as I said 49-47 for Harris https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-12-harriss-lead-shrinks-to-2-points-in-tight-race/
2024-10-25 10:09:07
Obviously i cant tell you how I know, but I can tell you im NO subscriber, so save yourself that money
2024-10-25 10:16:22
+3 from yesterday gets replaced with todays +2 - so the avg. decreases
2024-10-25 12:20:46
It will be tough for Trum to gain. They have a rolling 4 day average, the result thats get dropped is +5 Trump - so he probably needs around +8 to move the needle to +3 average on Rasmussen - https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1849663763567280514/photo/1
2024-10-25 13:24:06
It may be published before 12pm, but RCP dev also needs time to update the site - also as said the +5 from 10/20 gets dropped it would need a miracle for Rasmussen to move the needle - other poll is always possible, I have CNN on my list but they usually drop polls later during the day
2024-10-25 16:00:37
GG see you on next weeks market
2024-10-25 16:05:53
CNN poll right now 😅
2024-10-28 13:08:00
NYT +14 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/upshot/florida-poll-harris-trump.html UNF +10% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20241021_FL_UNF.pdf and Activote 11 https://www.activote.net/trump-extends-lead-in-florida-2/ there are many more out there
2024-11-04 17:01:35
GG to us all for some fun weeks on these RCP markets. Best of luck and see you around!
2024-11-04 22:00:01
why do only lifetime PnL negative people make comments like this?
2024-11-06 10:24:57
GG
2024-11-08 23:47:20
lol dude, im bullish too, but to say its free money is just ridiculous
2024-11-09 00:29:50
lol dude, 3029 votes as of now to close the gap (2,043703682% is the margin) - Phily County has another 5235 left to post, Montgomery 3098, Allegheny 2183 - it may be a coinflip but certainly not confirmed
2024-11-09 00:42:56
simple math man, they will call it when it is really over as it should be
2024-11-09 09:51:29
Its astonishing that so many people bet on this site without knowing the numbers. Phily county says they received at least 202713 mail-in ballots: https://vote.phila.gov/news/2024/10/28/2024-general-mail-in-and-absentee-ballots-status-update/ - if u do the math from whats in the system https://vote.phila.gov/results/ it proves there are +5000 votes left, probably more since the number on the first link is the lowest possible amount
2024-11-09 11:21:01
NBC has the Trump votes in from the last 2 Cambria drops, but is missing the Harris votes - AP CNN all have them in, 2.1166 margin or 8092 votes ahead - more than 30K mail in ballots left, a lot from the big cities, Cambria seems to be done now 125 of 125 precincts have reported
2024-11-09 21:24:11
not yet sir but u can buy it at 0.1c soon
2024-11-09 22:23:18
Can you read the small print? "Final result based on New York Times forecast as of 11/07 24" https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1854968840616026541/photo/1 - the forecast went off after they called the race.
2024-11-09 23:16:20
why do you say everything is counted? Official state data shows there were at least 20K mail in ballots left. When I compare todays posted mail in data in my spreadsheet with the missing state data from yesterday it should be rather 32-35K and not 20K left. We will see, 80/20 seems a fairish price right now
2024-11-09 23:50:05
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3% of dying? because that is what ur arguing
2024-11-09 23:50:37
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3% of death? because that is what ur saying basically
2024-11-09 23:51:01
so ur telling me a 78 year old 1 day before his 79th birthday has a 5.3 percent chance of death? because that is what ur saying basically
2024-11-09 23:53:52
Domer snaped all the no shares - congrats!
2024-11-10 10:22:02
Close to my calculation, but I expect more than 26K mail ins left, the county estimates are the absolute minimum (amount received by election night)
2024-11-10 11:34:32
seems to be done according to official PA gov data - Page 5 of the linked pdf above - 100% precincts reported - https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
2024-11-10 12:02:21
hello 80K
2024-11-11 19:08:22
Wow finally new votes. (Mail-ins) Harris 77% in Washington County were Trump has 62,5% overall
2024-11-11 21:19:09
scroll down to Election dashboard here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/pennsylvania-president/ You see the amount of votes, how they split and where they are from. the 62,5% for Washington County can be found everywhere - she is, as expected, outperforming Trump hugely with Mail-in ballots and as of PA State data only Mail-ins + provisional and army etc. are outstanding https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
2024-11-11 21:29:22
its absolutely does, but the senate race bet is a 0.9c bet I put 20 bucks in, so dont take it too seriously, im just waiting for a little pop to 3-4c to sell :)
2024-11-11 21:45:33
What I do is download the doc for each day, check the WA page which votes come in and compare it with the doc of the next day. Ive been doing that since thursday and this leads me to think my bet is the better choice, obv I could be wrong to be fair but I trust my gut here. Actually this method is the only real thing we all can do, because its all state data and no estimates by any news organisation about how many votes are left
2024-11-11 21:48:21
even though I bought about half of the shares at 3c, Im pretty sure im correct here and will def not sell before its resolved (if i dont see any data that would change my mind)
2024-11-11 23:20:55
When BTC hits 100K - ETH should be around 3.9/4K - it all depends on what happens after BTC hits 100K
2024-11-11 23:45:31
shocker, its even 99% counted (and I've said that before) according to PA state data: https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf - but guess what it was 98.72% on friday, so everything that came in before were the missing votes in Cambria. Mail-ins will drop in tomorrow and we will see :) and if u are talking about me in ur comment I invite you to show me where i made up stats
2024-11-12 00:00:22
the remaining mail-ins left in that doc are the absolute minimum (0.51% of 110487 is 564), check the text next to the 99.05% in the doc on page 2 here: https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/vote/elections/pados_enrsupplementalboard_2024general.pdf
2024-11-12 00:00:52
Shown in the table below are absentee and mail-in ballot counts for the November 5th, 2024, Presidential Election. The table shows the number of absentee and mail-in ballots recorded as returned in SURE (this number will change as ballots are received through the deadline and are entered by counties). County boards of elections are working on counting and reconciling the ballots, and in most cases will not finish counting mail-in and absentee ballots on election night. Ballots received through 8pm on Election Day will be entered and reported after the earlier ballots have been recorded. Ballots returned are being pre-canvassed and canvassed until a final determination is made. The count will be reflected only after the county makes the adjustments in SURE. This may lead to fluctuations in the percentage remaining to be counted. Hence, this dashboard should be considered as an approximation. Counties are in the process of reconciling ballots recorded in SURE.
2024-11-12 15:16:51
According to ZDF they chose December 27th
2024-11-12 15:17:11
[link removed]
2024-11-12 15:18:26
Scholz soll am 16 Dezember die Vertrauensfrage stellen. Entzieht ihm der Bundestag das Vertrauen, soll das Parlament am 27 Dezember aufgeloest werden
2024-11-12 15:20:05
Planned for 27.12 [link removed]
2024-11-12 16:59:02
Bullshit - no link no proof - ZDF says 27th
2024-11-12 19:44:07
after we get the updated doc from PA Gov at around 5 PM EST. we know were we stand, but I think many more votes are still missing and the direction were this goes, as I have been trying to explain here for days, is pretty obvious
2024-11-12 20:02:49
More media mentioning December 27th as the date:
2024-11-12 20:03:11
"Die Aufloesung des Parlaments stuende dann am 27. Dezember an, sollten die Abgeordneten dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entziehen" [link removed]
2024-11-12 20:04:19
[link removed]
2024-11-12 20:05:43
[link removed]
2024-11-12 20:11:24
This is false thinking. The date for the dissolution does not affect the election date, which is locked in for February 23rd.
2024-11-12 20:13:37
if anything an earlier dissolution brings final certainty about the election date and gives everyone more time until February 23rd.
2024-11-12 20:21:30
There is no instability. The Bundestag stays in power until a new Bundestag has been elected. Check Art. 39 Abs. 1 Satz 3 GG [link removed]
2024-11-12 22:26:14
I bought my 3 yes bets mostly for 3-4c, when i realized it would go to 1.5-2 i bought some Nos +2 and more 1.5-2 @ around 30-40 I think
2024-11-13 21:36:04
Ja, da ist Heilige Drei Koenige Feiertag
2024-11-13 22:41:32
haha this aged well sir - I argued with facts, but u wouldnt want to listen
2024-11-13 22:42:31
How are you doing? I told you what happened would happen
2024-11-14 09:04:18
Steinmeier will RASCH entscheiden: "Der Bundespraesident hat deutlich gemacht, dass er fuer den Fall, dass der Bundestag dem Bundeskanzler das Vertrauen entzieht, rasch ueber eine Aufloesung entscheiden wird." Source: [link removed]
2024-11-14 09:08:10
"The Federal President has made it clear that if the Bundestag withdraws its confidence in the Federal Chancellor, he will quickly decide on a dissolution."
2024-11-14 10:48:36
What I think doesnt matter, the press release from the person deciding this says he will decide QUICKLY - kind of more important than what you, I or anyone else thinks.
2024-11-15 21:55:11
get a job
2024-11-16 17:07:30
haha you SOLD shares yesterday dude
2024-11-16 21:10:02
you had it there
2024-11-17 14:28:32
I think the recount is only for the Senate race, because the margin in the presidential race is more than 0.5%, so no recount is triggered.
2024-11-19 16:12:00
There goes your free money
2024-11-21 15:53:28
Trump and Rowan both went to the Wharton School of Finance - anyone that understands how Trump ticks knows this is a big plus for Rowan.
2024-11-25 22:37:57
Anyone shocked by this is new to crypto, I've seen this stuff 200 times before - just relax
2024-11-25 22:38:18
we shouldnt go below 91K tho
2024-11-27 19:50:54
What happened?
2024-11-27 20:18:15
Bow to the King BowBow - he is break even now and soon adds another Million to his Account
2024-11-29 11:31:27
yea man it violently went back 0.03% to 96952 - a truly brutal rejection
2024-11-29 13:45:27
BowBow back buying
2024-11-29 15:15:19
BowBow sellorder @ 60?
2024-11-29 20:49:02
sell 11 buy 13 sell 12 buy 13 - what is going on?
2024-11-29 20:49:28
Market buy or sell please
2024-11-29 21:31:56
me too, it happened at least twice - lets hope for a market sell
2024-11-30 21:58:16
[link removed]
2024-12-01 17:30:44
Und verkauft haha
2024-12-02 10:48:27
Entweder bist du blind auf beiden Augen oder einfach nur bloed.
2024-12-02 10:53:42
"personally as a politician I’d prefer ... more time to prepare for an election" you do realize that this is the main argument FOR dissolving in 2024 right?
2024-12-02 10:57:31
Herr lass Hirn regnen
2024-12-02 20:36:18
Have you them still all? Don’t bring me on the palm. Let the church in the village. You can’t see the forest infront of many trees. I hold that not out!
2024-12-02 20:48:49
Do you have a bird? You really think the AFD will vote in large numbers for Scholz? I think my pig is whistling. You have one at the waffle. The Linke has publicly said, that the party consensus is to vote Scholz out. They will be gone anyway after the next election and they know it. There is no plausible vote to reach 42 votes besides SPD and Green. I see black for you + every NO holder but enjoy your life in full trains and go where the pepper grows. Sponge over it - we will see soon. Sorry, my englisch is under all pig.
2024-12-02 20:52:30
And sorry, my english is not the yellow from the egg, but it goes. My fellow Germans will understand me ;)
2024-12-02 21:10:38
Tell no cheese. My hair stand to mountain listening to arguments saying this is against the law. You look stupid out of the laundry after Dez. 27th.
2024-12-02 21:14:07
I think I spider. Can you read the law? Do you really think the Bundestag is not able to act after being formally dissolved? If so, you don’t have all cups in the cupboard. And now don’t play the offended liversausage. I get foxdevilswild-reading stuff like this. Holla, the forest-fairy!
2024-12-02 21:37:55
Finally a common sense comment - not from bad parents. Enjoy your life and winnings from this market in full trains. We know how the rabbit runs.
2024-12-04 12:21:06
Nie mehr 1. Liga!
2024-12-04 22:40:31
Don’t comment free money with your PnL
2024-12-06 08:24:58
Hint: Not the 4-5% GOP ur holding.
2024-12-10 20:43:50
Click resolution, Propose resolution, connect your wallet and lose $750 for a "P4" too early request. Or wait until April 30th to realize your $1 gain from this market.
2024-12-11 10:02:57
Rechen- oder Leseschwaeche? Oder sogar beides?
2024-12-11 13:34:46
https://x.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1866838887240438141
2024-12-11 19:41:29
Hey Fish, Oh, you green nine. Maybe read the Grundgesetz before you claim "without a parliament". A free hint to save some money is GG 39: "Its term shall end when a new Bundestag convenes". I wish you what and hold your ears stiff
2024-12-11 19:46:05
Wer kennt ihn nicht, den Coin flip bei einer 99 zu 1 Wette. Wer zu bloed ist das zu sehen oder die politischen Gruende zu verstehen darf gerne mehr als 7 Euro setzen. Aber komm mir nicht mit frech oder unliebsam wenn man selber irgendwelche bloedsinnigen Daten in den Raum wirft ohne Ahnung zu haben.
2024-12-11 19:50:44
MfG Andreas
2024-12-11 21:18:55
Gott sei dank bin ich nicht hirnlos. [link removed] Unabhaengig davon, warum sollte gerade die AFD fuer Scholz stimmen, dass ist mit das laecherlichste was man sich vorstellen kann. MfG Andreas
2024-12-11 21:21:50
Leichtes Geld und nur fuer 8 Euro drin? Nimm doch bitte noch nen Kredit auf und hau alles rein fuer das leichte Geld das sich x5
2024-12-13 08:15:55
It will happen hehe dont ask me why :)
2024-12-13 22:05:19
Alright, since I’ve been asked questions on my bet, here is my answer. This may get a longer read, but let me lay out why I am 100% certain this will happen in 2024. For a better overview, I’ll provide sources in the end, but ill mark them with numbers in the text. (in German) Let’s start with the point I think many people are betting on “no”. A dissolved Bundestag does NOT mean Germany has no Government that can act. It actually changes very little, the Bundestag has the same power it had before, is fully in charge and ready to act and react. (1)
2024-12-13 22:05:28
We’ve had quite some discussion about the possible election date, (2) should it be in March? No too late, should it be in January, no too late, so they settled on February 23rd. Now one can think everyone is preparing for this date already, which is true to some amount, but it’s very crucial to understand, that the Government and communities/city can only start preparing officially for the election (poll stations, hire election helpers, billboards for parties) in the very second the Bundestag is dissolved and with this Steinmeier officially announces the date of the new election. (he cannot do this before the Bundestag is dissolved). A German election is not something you can run in a few weeks, EVERY single day counts. (3) (4) And as the election date is kind of set in stone (Steinmeier “approves of timetable”) (5) The head of German elections (Bundeswahlleiterin) has made it clear, that the 60-day period between dissolving the Bundestag and the election should be used to the maximum. (6)
2024-12-13 22:05:50
The probably second most important thing is based on this. There are SO MANY deadlines for an election. Parties have to official register for the election, given the small timeline, every single day counts, especially for small parties. Parties have to name their candidates. After this is done, the ballots have to be printed. People have to register for mail-in ballots. They have to be printed and sent out. The list goes on and on and on. If you have any sense and understand of German politics, you know that we need this time, at best the full 60 days, to prepare and run a proper election. I’ve read many times, that between Christmas and New Year no one wants to be in Berlin for this. The truth is, no one has to be present in Berlin. Steinmeier will announce this with a letter. For me, there is honestly not a single argument why this will not happen on December 27th.
2024-12-13 22:06:44
The next date would be January 2nd, which would waste 6 days, I’ve argued above why even just 6 days are crucial for the preparations. Many of you are arguing stuff like he should do this in the New Year as a restart or to not but a burden on German citizens. I honestly think no sane person is bothered by this, since we already know it will happen. Again, 6 or more wasted days are very crucial for the deadlines argued above. I could go in much more detail with this post, but I’ll leave it at that.
2024-12-13 22:06:57
I’ll just add, that I’ve started on here in July with 10K and if I was a complete idiot, chances are, that I wouldn’t be up to 90K by today. My final word is that a lot of high class German media and Bild have all mentioned December 27th as the (very likely) date. (7-11) MfG Andreas
2024-12-13 22:07:06
(1) [link removed] (2) [link removed] (3) [link removed] (4) [link removed] (5) [link removed] (6) [link removed] (7) [link removed] (8) [link removed] (9) [link removed] (10) [link removed] (11) [link removed]
2024-12-13 22:08:41
Sorry, I had to post this in 6 posts, since it wouldnt work with just one.
2024-12-13 22:14:49
Resolve this: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113647794294007649
2024-12-13 22:40:22
He posted it again: https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1867700670939419075
2024-12-13 23:03:57
I just posted a separate comment with my reasoning
2024-12-14 11:36:51
Not much can be done before Steinmeier makes the election date official. Regarding billboards (Plakatwerbung) see this article: [link removed]
2024-12-14 19:30:47
My argument would be 6 days is still 6 days, it doesnt matter if it includes Sundays or federal holidays. Trust me, the people working on the election will not celebrate New Years Eve much this year, they have argued that they need those 60 days and wont be taking off much until the election. Remember, the most important time of their job is the 60 days prior to an election. There is no way they could take much time off during that timeframe. Also smaller parties need to collect signatures to be approved for the election. The draft for shorter deadlines can be found here [link removed].de/SharedDocs/gesetzgebungsverfahren/DE/Downloads/referentenentwuerfe/VI5/[link removed]?__blob=publicationFile&v=5 More on that topic here: [link removed].de/SharedDocs/gesetzgebungsverfahren/DE/VI5/[link removed]
2024-12-14 20:50:10
Thank you! I put a lot of research and very much thinking in my bigger trades. If anyone has any objections on, like @Perlig above, please let me know and I'll respond to it.
2024-12-16 06:56:32
Scholz Speech 1pm, debate and questioning 1:30 to 3pm, voting around 3:30 pm (all German local time)
2024-12-16 12:06:34
" it seems unlikely that President Steinmeier would move to dissolve the parliament this year - that would create unnecessary time pressure" how so? Election date is fixed, so please explain why this would put time pressure on? It doesnt make any sense
2024-12-16 13:42:39
Sorry you are making the best case for a YES, but your missing one small but crucial detail.. You can not print ballots, update voter lists until you have an official election date. You have an official election date in the very second the Bundestag is dissolved. You cant start working on any of this before the Bundestag is dissolved.
2024-12-16 14:55:05
"why would Steinmeier rush to dissolve the Bundestag during the Christmas holidays" because not doing so, let me use ur words, "would create unnecessary time pressure". This is not my opinion but a fact. The head of German elections (Bundeswahlleiterin) has made it clear, that the 60-day period between dissolving the Bundestag and the election should be used to the maximum. [link removed]
2024-12-16 15:52:01
One thing I actually forgot to add: The Bundespraesident has made it clear that if the Bundestag withdraws its confidence in the Chancellor, he will quickly decide on a dissolution. QUICKLY QUICKLY QUICKLY - [link removed]
2024-12-16 16:15:23
no surprise there, this is standard procedure
2024-12-16 19:45:04
I'm all for yes, but this is BS. The election has to take place a maximum of 60 days after dissolving the Bundestag. In theory the election could also be 2 days later. Obv not happening. Steinmeier can dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days from today. Given the election date 23th February is fixed he has to make the decision until between Dec. 25th and January 6th. And he will do so on Dec. 27th.
2024-12-16 20:12:49
60 days is 25th December, but as I said it does not have to be 60 days, 60 days is the maximum it can also be 59 58 57 56 30 20 10 5 or 2 days. But relax he will dissolve on the 27th of December..
2024-12-16 21:10:40
if you want a lengthy explanation filter the comments to "likes" and read my lengthy post on the 3rd position of the comments.
2024-12-19 11:25:24
Correct + you get a $5 reward. The other members of the administration have been sworn in at around 10AM today. https://www.landtag.sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/sitzungskalender/sitzung/2385
2024-12-20 10:21:07
Told you guys :) "I intend to take the decision on the dissolution of the German Bundestag in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law on December 27, 2024." BPr #Steinmeier today commented on @bundeskanzler 's proposal to dissolve @bundestag .
2024-12-20 10:21:14
[link removed]
2024-12-20 10:21:28
[link removed]
2024-12-20 10:25:37
CHEERS and THANK YOU for the cash
2024-12-20 10:38:02
BUY MORE :)
2024-12-20 10:44:52
Do not bet money if you don't understand the facts. "the time without parliament" I give you a free hint. There is not a single second Germany is without parliament. Art. 39 (1) GG
2024-12-20 11:00:38
I'm glad you do, smart people can only get richer if dumb people are willing to lose more money.
2024-12-20 11:02:53
Also meine tolle Frau Sandra steht voll auf mich. MfG Andreas
2024-12-20 11:32:12
you lost money bro, sorry to tell you
2024-12-20 13:23:58
Prost!
2024-12-20 13:43:48
Wer nicht hoert muss fuehlen :)
2024-12-20 14:01:03
Dude you dont know what you are talking about. It takes 1 sheet of paper with maybe 100 words and a signature and publish it in the BT-Drucksachen. See Koehlers paper: [link removed] - Quite a HUGE bureaucratic process
2024-12-20 15:48:42
Good news from the Government shutdown and we are flying towards 100K
2024-12-20 15:49:05
But only 71min left
2024-12-24 13:20:12
No reason to delay anything. The Bundestag is fully functionable after dissolvement. Art 39. (1) GG: "Its term shall end when a new Bundestag convenes". Also the meeting is for a committee not Bundestag in general.
2024-12-27 10:01:21
GAME OVER - THANKS FOR THE CASH
2024-12-27 10:03:27
TOCK and over
2024-12-27 10:04:08
Ich trinke dann wohl alleine :)
2024-12-27 10:08:16
Dear No Holders go ahead and buy Alice Weidel for Chancellor and AFD wins the election shares so i can cash more on you
2024-12-27 10:10:10
Danke und auch dir GLW! Eine so klare Wette die lange bei 75-85 steht wird es so schnell leider nicht mehr geben...
2024-12-27 10:20:48
Dude, my fortune only grows
2024-12-27 10:22:28
Tock
2024-12-27 10:22:54
:) :)
2024-12-27 10:24:23
I love your trusted source.
2024-12-27 10:28:28
ist drin, um 13:25 Uhr klingelt die Kasse
2024-12-27 10:33:31
Congrats! I've made quite some cash from my initial 10K on this site, but this market was by far the best opportunity to make money with very little risk. I cant believe it traded around 70-85c for that long.
2024-12-27 10:36:23
Summary: 100% correct - I hope some took advantage and make some cash :)
2024-12-27 12:49:08
they sadly know exactly where they can take massive sums reliably and regularly from me :/
2024-12-27 12:54:42
Ich bin mir da noch nicht sicher, ueber 83-85c hat man wohl +EV fuer 14-17c NOs. Gleiche % am Ende wie lange Zeit hier, aber ich wuerde mich nicht wohl fuehlen auch nur annaehernd soviel wie hier zu investieren. Was meinst du?
2025-01-04 19:47:11
Just curious why you think Bartsch, who was almost 10% behind in 2021, would win this year? Gysi is the only very safe direct-seat. Ramelow does have a shot to be fair. Pellmann won by 4% in 2021 and Schwerdtner who takes over Loetzschs district will have a very hard time too. Loetzsch may have won the district by 6,4%, but Schwerdtner is a new candidate and keep in mind for all of the 5, the BSW was not there in 2021 and will cut A LOT of votes. So I am obviously having a hard time seeing 5, yet alone 3 direct-seats, my guess is 2 at most, but we will see :)
2025-01-06 15:58:48
haha yes its true, but the price will rise with the upcoming X Space with Musk and Weidel and Ill sell my shares expensive, just watch, im already up 1K
2025-01-06 15:59:28
so unlike other people Im not buying to keep them, they are essentially worthless
2025-01-10 17:58:18
at least 15.1, as the results from the Federal Returning Officer are only 1 digit after the decimal point
2025-01-11 14:11:51
Fair point, you are absolutely correct
2025-01-13 22:35:40
indeed free $0.026 for you, which inflation will kill until this markets concludes. If you another 100 shares you may be able to buy an egg from those profits before inflation.
2025-01-15 16:37:36
GG
2025-01-15 16:44:39
better prices here: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-ends-gaza-war-in-100-days/trump-ends-gaza-war-in-100-days?tid=1736959358468
2025-01-15 18:45:25
thats a blant lie, he never promised or even talked about this in 2016. Proof me wrong
2025-01-19 19:48:31
they all have one thing in common. A huge positive PNL - go and figure why
2025-01-21 13:10:55
latest poll from 10min ago AFD 19%
2025-01-21 13:23:06
[link removed]
2025-01-23 22:37:02
Great job Poly, give us a bet like this and not this stupid shit - Which coalition will form the next government of Germany?
2025-01-23 22:37:12
Will The FDP make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
2025-01-23 22:37:18
Will The BSW make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
2025-01-23 22:39:11
Upvote in discord - market suggestions
2025-01-23 23:08:09
You really think Poly is that stupid= Afd 25-30 - SPD 15-20 - good lord. At least consider the INSA data about voter potential. If you really believe those percentages you should see a doctor.
2025-01-24 00:22:08
Thanks to the guy that filled me at 80c
2025-01-24 20:30:08
A White House official confirmed to Semafor that Trump is expected to sign the directive later Friday, during a multi-state trip that marks his first outside of Washington since taking office on Monday. [link removed]
2025-01-25 21:07:49
SkiLLz = no money to pay for taxes
2025-01-25 21:12:09
it certainly feels like the market is watching the broadcast, Y heading south
2025-01-25 21:19:17
yea sure, something needs to happen to resolve yes and each day nothing happens it will go up. What stuff are you on?
2025-01-25 21:39:46
he says and sells ALL his shares haha
2025-01-28 22:23:30
why did you still buy no? ;)
2025-01-29 00:01:03
Lasst die Spiele beginnen.
2025-02-01 22:30:55
false, check this market it was at 90c Y https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-issue-more-pardons-than-trump/will-biden-issue-more-pardons-than-trump?tid=1737386386481
2025-02-02 19:10:29
Its vastly undervalued. Give it 24-48h after Ugur stops buying any 25-30% and it will go back to 13-15%. I am expecting a 2-4% push for the CDU and 1-3% decrease for the AFD for the polls coming AFTER next Friday, the polls before may go in the other direction. We will have AFD finish between 18 and 21%, I paid 18.7c average for 15-20%, which is amazing value. Obviously I also hedge 20-25 a bit, with the goal to go out +-0 if the pull of 20-25%, but a huge cash for 15-20 - the other are just positions I make money with.
2025-02-02 19:33:47
If we all moved to Sweden, our society would collapse. Look, I am not trying to get in an argument here nor do I have the time for that - but in the end it doesnt matter to me if you stop buying or not, 25-30 is vastly overpriced because only one person is keeping the price up here. If you were to keep the price up like that until the election you probably need to put another 400-500K in there, which I know you absolutely could and trust me I am cheering for you to do so :)
2025-02-02 19:34:51
why hate on anyone? He has his view and puts money behind it, I respect that. I would not respect people talking shit but not putting their money on the line.
2025-02-02 21:32:08
I bought 3900 @30c haha - thank you MayorOfMagaVille
2025-02-03 11:05:41
Falsch. FG Wahlen + Infratest-Dimap machen Mo-Mi, Insa Fr-Mo. Nur Forsa macht Di-Mo. YouGov und Ipsos auch, aber die kann man ja eh vergessen. Allensbach hat 10-12 Tage als Zeitraum, duerfte wohl auch diese Woche wieder kommen.
2025-02-03 13:55:27
TOP 3: FG Wahlen, Infratest Dimap and Allensbach.
2025-02-03 23:40:16
I don’t take advice from NEGATIVE PnL idiot's - look up fuck you party!
2025-02-04 08:33:57
Wahlkreisprognose AFD now 19.5 - 2% down from 21.5% last time. Zeitraum: 01.02. bis [link removed] - [link removed]
2025-02-04 09:15:29
Stimmt, wir sollten alle nur das fuer deutsche Wahlumfragen bekannte "Washington DC Democracy Institute" beachten, die liegen bestimmt genau richtig.
2025-02-04 09:23:39
Ok dann verstehst du nicht, wie Umfragen funktionieren und ich kann dir sagen, es ist Standard und wird immer gemacht... Sogar der Goldstandard vom "Washington DC Democracy Institute" macht das... [link removed]
2025-02-04 09:24:16
Bild 4... [link removed]
2025-02-04 11:42:10
Forsa: [link removed]
2025-02-05 20:13:56
done big boy
2025-02-06 08:34:49
Only 25? 30% min. + Chancellor Weidel...
2025-02-07 10:16:53
usually they post pretty early, between 6 and 8 AM. Also most of the time they publish Thursday not Friday - so we may not get any numbers today, but I certainly hope we do.
2025-02-07 11:03:41
i hope you are right, weird that they just published this article about polls, with no mention of Allensbach: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/umfragen-so-steht-die-union-nach-den-abstimmungen-mit-der-afd-da-110279490.html
2025-02-07 11:04:28
Also weird to publish that article if you had a poll to post later the same day
2025-02-07 11:08:07
But to be fair the last poll 2021 was also published "late" on a friday, 15:54 Uhr - https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/bundestagswahl-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-zwischen-spd-und-union-17552952.html
2025-02-07 11:11:16
Yea i know, I listen to Gordon every morning. Ill be patient ;)
2025-02-07 16:41:35
kommt wohl doch nix mehr heute....
2025-02-07 17:36:16
also to add, around 18% are undecided, in my mind if you are voting AFD you have made up your mind. So if from these 18% undecided only 10-15% vote AFD, they tend to finish below 20%, assuming they are at around 21% with 82% having made up their mind. Merz's move will convince some people, so without a major attack there is now way for the AFD to pull the same 20-21% that have made up their mind from the 18% undecided. Advanced strategy I guess ;)
2025-02-07 18:54:05
lol compared to last poll from May 15th. +30% secured for sure!
2025-02-08 20:25:25
They have 223/316 seats right now, we could do 30 more options, which would all trade at [link removed] - thats what other is for.
2025-02-09 22:59:48
True :)
2025-02-09 23:01:04
8-9c max till Election Day
2025-02-09 23:07:06
The great Washington Institute confirmed +25 I better start selling my bags…
2025-02-09 23:07:54
Even +40 is not off the table… I’m done
2025-02-12 06:07:32
The peak was last week, and it’s all downhill from here. They’ll likely finish between 18.7% and 20.7%, with Merz’s move swaying some voters. The AfD will also significantly underperform among undecided voters, who still make up a large group.
2025-02-12 07:01:16
And everyone will be like, how the hell did I not buy 15-20 when it was at 19c or even cheaper last week :)
2025-02-12 07:10:10
I lose $763 if 20-25 wins BUT I make $97,420 pure profit after expenses if 15-20 wins
2025-02-12 11:15:45
35-40 in my mind as of now. If we see them drop to 20 or below 20 in the 3 big polls FG Wahlen, Infratest and Allensbach, 15-20 should be slightly favored by election day.
2025-02-12 18:03:41
Mach dich nicht laecherlich.
2025-02-13 08:50:27
diese Woche wieder nix? :D Die neue Umfrage dann am besten nach der Wahl veroeffentlichen
2025-02-13 16:29:43
Infratest leider nur 32-21
2025-02-13 16:31:09
Bei den Wahlabsichten ergeben sich nur kleinere Aenderungen zur Vorwoche. Die Union liegt mit 32 Prozent leicht besser als in der Vorwoche (+1), die AfD stabil bei 21 Prozent. Die SPD gibt etwas nach und kaaeme auf 14 Prozent (-1). Die Gruenen haetten unveraendert 14 Prozent in Aussicht. Weiterhin bewegen sich mehrere Parteien um die Mandatsschwelle. Die Linke haette derzeit 6 Prozent in Aussicht (+1), das BSW 4,5 Prozent (+0,5), die FDP unveraendert 4 Prozent. Andere Parteien kaemen zusammen auf 4,5 Prozent (-1,5).
2025-02-13 16:31:17
Die aktuelle Sonntagsfrage ist die letzte Messung von Wahlabsichten durch infratest dimap vor der Bundestagswahl.
2025-02-13 17:13:23
Wahlkreisprognose AFD 20: [link removed]
2025-02-14 06:27:31
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20% AFD
2025-02-14 08:13:45
Not necessarily, check the "Politische Stimmung" part of FG-Wahlen - quite interesting: [link removed]
2025-02-14 19:06:14
GAME BREAKER!!!!! 50% confirmed - may even be 60% - hell what am I saying the may even reach the 90%
2025-02-16 21:36:45
a random number generator
2025-02-16 21:38:45
this guy is obviously just promoting his huge 19 follower Twitter account and has zero skin in the game. They may very well not make the 5%, but to give a 4,36% probablility and not buying NO shares @ 71c shows you how seriously you can take this person.
2025-02-19 14:27:18
Right now 6/8 polls show 20% for them [link removed] - but what is more important than %s is the direction the polls are moving. Anyone would prefer to have movement from 18 to 20 rather than 22 to 20 before any election. They could very well land above 20% - but below 20 is more than a 1 in 5 chance.
2025-02-19 14:32:42
I think we only have Forschungsgruppe Wahlen left, maybe maybe maybe Allensbacher also. Insa could do Saturday as well, but I wouldnt put much weight into them too
2025-02-20 13:10:38
Cant wait for the final FG Wahlen poll later, this will be a nailbiter on sunday, imo way closer than priced here right now.
2025-02-20 16:57:14
There is no proof for your strategic voting claim, I would even say the opposite and polling slightly below 5% rather than at 6% is an advantage. As seen twice with FDP 2013 and Linke 2021 you are likely to underperform if people see you as safe above 5% with 6% polls. I also count on quite some CDU voters to switch to FDP, to prevent a coalition with the Greens.
2025-02-20 20:32:15
you know what, they even had them at 23% in Brandenburg.... 2 months before the election. The last polls were all at 28% - [link removed] - Sachsen was 31 30 32 at the final polls - only Thueringen was off. Meckpom 2021 idk where u get ur 14% from, but since all the other %s ur naming are wrong I am not surprised... Might be true if you take the lowest poll number 6 months before the election ;)
2025-02-21 08:10:43
Please provide a source for your claim "in the last 3 elections they have over performed polls by 2-5%". And dont show me polls that were taken 4 weeks before the elections, only final polls count.
2025-02-21 08:11:53
and also dont pick one of many polls, only the polling average between all pollsters is a serious number.
2025-02-21 08:12:19
+30% confirmed!
2025-02-21 08:21:04
Linke 12% is enough to know how credible this is. SPD and Greens both at 57% - you better go and buy the Greens here for 26c right now
2025-02-21 08:22:16
its basically simple math and trend reading.
2025-02-21 14:07:59
Allensbach final poll: 20%
2025-02-21 19:38:08
2025 Bundestag Election**: TBD (final polls midpoint 26% - what?😂
2025-02-21 21:51:30
If Maradona is in on color he is in WHITE.
2025-02-21 21:59:30
An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. ---- You honestly think Trump would not announce something right after its signed?
2025-02-21 22:02:41
Today, Ukrainian and U.S. teams are working on a draft agreement between our governments. This agreement can add value to our relations what matters most is getting the details right to ensure it truly works. - [link removed]
2025-02-23 15:29:14
tomorrow after the official and final results are posted by the resolution source.
2025-02-23 17:01:13
never bet against mombil
2025-02-23 17:31:39
Some say up to 19.8 and others say DOWN from 20.0.
2025-02-23 17:51:25
Herr lass Hirn regnen
2025-02-23 18:49:47
resolution source is the number of votes, everything above 19.95 is 20.0 rounded up but is still below 20% - so you need to calculate yourself there - but 20.0 is not always 20.0
2025-02-23 18:51:17
you sound like a smart person
2025-02-23 18:54:45
You have to admit that this is closer than you thought.
2025-02-23 19:09:29
no matter how this ends, dont tell me I made a bad bet there buddy haha if i lose this by [link removed] this was an insanely good bet
2025-02-23 19:32:35
I walk out basically +-0 with 20-25 winning, I knew and I was 100% correct 15-20 was bigly undervalued with around 20c, everyone denying that is lying, I went in big and will know tomorrow how it went :) All I know I pay 500K income tax every year too much for idiots voting like this
2025-02-23 19:51:52
What a shitshow, throwback to 2005
2025-02-23 19:51:56
[link removed]
2025-02-23 19:56:03
Let me put it this way. I'm a businessperson, and another Green coalition, along with voting the FDP out, makes me question whether it's worth paying 500K in taxes each year. Another country might appreciate my business more.
2025-02-23 20:07:59
haha your so wrong in your assumption.
2025-02-25 20:50:22
sorry bud he is going there on Friday
2025-02-25 20:59:30
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1894491533237252417
2025-02-28 20:58:59
After cooling off Ukraine will realize without that signature there wont be any peace.
2025-02-28 21:25:18
thanks ;) But I dont see any reason for this market to not resolve yes within 14 days max, Trump needs that deal, he needs rare earths and not look like a loser with a bust deal and ofc Ukraine knows the longer they wait the less likely US support is, which is the crucial thing to close any "peace" deal.
2025-02-28 23:14:35
""The deal on minerals" is the first step closer to peace." Zelenskyy Fox News Interview
2025-02-28 23:16:14
what I think doesnt matter, without that deal there is no peace - we Europeans may be able to step up for a short time, but there will never ever be peace without the US.
2025-02-28 23:38:09
"The deal on minerals" is the first step closer to peace." Zelenskyy - Fox Interview
2025-02-28 23:46:08
wasnt he ready to sign today without that?
2025-03-04 15:40:12
Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively. [link removed]
2025-03-04 19:46:43
In his prewritten speeches with Starmer and Macron he used "minerals". Freestyle Trump may use rare earths more often, but in every prewritten speech he uses minerals.
2025-03-05 05:58:56
I wonder who is brave enough to propose anything here risking his $750
2025-03-05 19:54:32
doesnt count as yes, the 25% stay and are NOT removed, so there is no suspension.
2025-03-05 20:29:10
same shit with the leaving Nato rumor two days ago, take the money and say thanks :)
2025-03-06 08:58:54
Yes exactly. The WH says a lot of things, but for the market to resolve yes it needs to officially happen. "signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes, suspends, or lowers tariffs on imports of automobiles or from the automobile sector, into the US from Canada or Mexico, by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET"
2025-03-06 11:18:20
technically there absolutely is and this market is about removing the 25% general tariff.
2025-03-06 20:16:00
Pope Francis on Thursday sent his first audio message since being hospitalized for double pneumonia nearly three weeks ago, expressing thanks "from the bottom of my heart" to well-wishers around the world who have offered their support. A brief, two-line message recorded by Francis from Rome's Gemelli hospital earlier on Thursday was played during a nightly prayer service for the pope in St Peter's Square at the Vatican. "I thank you from the bottom of my heart for your prayers in the Square for my health," said the pope, speaking in his native Spanish, and pausing every few words to take a deep breath. "May God bless you." The audio message came shortly after the Vatican said the pontiff had remained stable on Thursday and did not have any new episodes of respiratory crisis.
2025-03-06 20:48:03
the market price at almost 50 50 tells you this is not enough to resolve for yes. Why dont you go ahead and donate half of your $750 to the disputer?
2025-03-07 06:17:08
depends on the price, I usually dont like to block much liquidity for long, in this case I got the 6K No shares for such a great price @22c average I couldnt resist.
2025-03-07 16:02:32
BREAKING: Putin is said to be ready to agree Ukraine truce with conditions. [link removed]
2025-03-07 16:02:50
Putin is said to be ready to agree Ukraine truce with conditions. According to sources in Moscow, Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine as long as progress is made towards a final peace settlement [link removed]
2025-03-11 18:18:52
bitdictator bought 4,240 Yes at 75.2c (3,188)
2025-03-12 22:27:28
I absolutely agree with you here my friend. Happy cashing on the donors here, already made some nice cash with the 20-30%
2025-03-13 18:03:15
Surprise :)
2025-03-13 18:51:32
Never ask an magician to reveal his tricks :)
2025-03-14 19:44:52
Axios on fire
2025-03-18 19:52:13
The price for this market should be the same as "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?" there won't be a ceasefire deal unless Ukraine agrees not to join NATO. This is a dealbreaker for Russia, just as Ukraine refusing to recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territory is a dealbreaker for Ukraine. These are the two main obstacles to any ceasefire agreement in this conflict.
2025-03-21 23:10:22
they have you 9 more months to sell
2025-03-22 23:05:43
"An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted." Trump: "Now, tomorrow, President Zelenskyy is coming. We're going to sign a rare earth deal because they have among the best rare earth in the world"
2025-03-22 23:46:51
Trump Oval Office with Zelenskyy besides him "And we have something that is a very fair deal and we look forward to getting in and digging, digging, digging and working and getting some of the rare earth" Zelenskyy nodding
2025-03-22 23:52:33
and why did the Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers vote to agree on that deal days before?
2025-03-23 00:01:32
I clearly have an IQ of below at most 90 - otherwise, instead of being up $125K from a $10K starting capital, I’d be up $500K.
2025-03-23 00:14:00
I'll wait patiently for you, my friend. I'm young and have plenty of time.
2025-03-25 15:27:01
Finanzamt sagt danke
2025-03-25 19:03:42
yes same for me
2025-03-25 20:16:34
Ouch Alfanhio 🤣
2025-03-26 20:50:16
I just dont get the point of markets like these...
2025-03-27 16:20:37
bs, they may pull here nomination soon.
2025-03-27 16:21:04
and where can I find the hearing sir? [link removed]
2025-03-27 17:57:58
GG
2025-03-27 19:13:56
market rules apply "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”."
2025-03-27 19:37:28
Claiming scam for your bad bond decisions. Should have gone with the Jesus Christ market
2025-04-02 21:51:55
One big point amid all the headlines: I was texting with press secretary Karoline Leavitt during the event and she confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect. https://x.com/EamonJavers/status/1907540655871521264
2025-04-04 22:25:11
Back in December I thought the 40% market was insane
2025-04-07 15:38:03
500% market soon?
2025-04-09 08:24:48
Where is a 200% market?
2025-04-16 22:17:56
hi big guy you are welcome to buy yes all the way up for 116K - wait for that any min and win it all
2025-04-16 22:20:35
Cash $0,00 and crying about low liquidity - any more sad stories on your mind you want to tell us about?
2025-04-21 21:09:36
True.
2025-04-22 17:57:21
December 31st. The rules always count, the date above is wrong. Rules: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET"
2025-04-30 12:26:37
FT confirms Wednesday: [link removed] The US and Ukraine are expected to sign a framework minerals agreement on Wednesday, following a breakthrough in months-long, contentious negotiations. Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, has flown to Washington to sign the deal with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, according to three senior Ukrainian officials.
2025-04-30 13:08:07
Shes already there according to AP
2025-04-30 15:17:56
False. The Ukrainian Cabinet is expected to approve the agreement’s text before the Washington meeting, after which it will be signed by an authorized government representative. The deal will then require ratification in the Ukrainian parliament before it can take effect.
2025-04-30 21:34:24
GG [link removed]
2025-04-30 21:43:27
[link removed]
2025-04-30 21:43:45
sorry Nancy
2025-04-30 21:50:17
nancy du bist langsam - [link removed]
2025-04-30 22:38:19
why do you want someone to lose $750?
2025-05-06 08:14:37
fyi this is the first time in history someone fails on the first vote...
2025-05-07 12:34:03
PNL $35 talking shit about $446K - arent you embarrassed by yourself?
2025-05-08 19:20:14
can you point out who the whales betting on NO are? I see way more whales on yes tbh...
2025-05-10 12:11:51
GG
2025-05-10 12:30:29
Thanks
2025-05-12 07:50:49
gotta wait till May 31
2025-05-12 15:14:11
thanks for deleting the other thing :)
2025-05-13 16:38:27
why?
2025-05-13 17:47:25
lol, I can tell you two dates they are going to meet - but you need to figure out where and why. June 15th (for 3 days total) and June 24th + 25th - this is just a bond tbh.
2025-05-14 04:48:03
they finally fixed it. It now shows Dec. 31st too
2025-05-14 20:29:42
"people are leaving Polymarket, and platform is slowly dying " [link removed] - idiots leave new idiots enter - gotta love it
2025-05-16 12:46:44
They will meet after the Nato Summit June 24-25 (Netherlands) in Istanbul (or less likely the Vatican).
2025-05-16 22:03:54
Hold it 🙏🏼
2025-05-16 22:11:04
So far he was asked at least 5x times about him and he always referring to Netanyahu as ‘he’
2025-05-16 22:12:41
Fuck me last Minute
2025-05-16 22:13:12
But it was a good bet - 34c average
2025-05-17 18:14:21
The Kremlin likely wants to postpone the meeting further, but since Trump will be in Europe on June 24 / 25, he’ll insist for it to happen immediately afterward. He HATES traveling. He will not fly to Europe end of June and to some Putin Summit weeks later. He will reject later date, as it could make him appear weak. 5 weeks is also a realistic timetable to prepare such a meeting. The Russians have been asking for a meeting for some weeks.
2025-05-17 23:07:59
GG Kapii the GOAT here
2025-05-23 05:52:04
was that so hard to figure out before yesterday?
2025-05-26 12:03:00
im sorry [link removed]
2025-05-26 20:05:03
Why Trump would go to Canada...
2025-05-28 20:10:20
it was a great steal, fill up while you can
2025-05-28 20:48:22
(3,399(458,72 (MSFT price right now) /457,36)/3,287)*134,81 - NVDA is at 140,03 right now -
2025-05-28 20:51:56
they actually did - (3,399(459,44 (MSFT price right now) /457,36)/3,287)*134,81 - NVDA is at 140,57 right now - 140,04 made them No. 1
2025-05-30 18:06:11
Open orders = free money for Axios
2025-05-30 18:52:41
well he announced that after the deal was sealed - so yes his words dont mean much - gotta be honest here with 20K shares
2025-05-30 19:50:01
93c no by june 15th
2025-06-04 20:47:01
no
2025-06-11 18:05:10
Next update will be interesting :)
2025-06-11 19:36:37
i dont get why its only going down to 46 with 38 approval 1.3 influence, after the JL Partners with 43 and 0.95 pushed it down to 45.4 for a couple of seconds yesterday
2025-06-12 15:07:51
how can you be an insider here? seems like a lucky shot to me with that PNL
2025-06-16 04:58:59
Mexico is a bond with not much more than little risk, why would he go there - he will expect Sheinbaum visiting.
2025-06-17 20:32:06
You have already drowned lol Killer PNL
2025-06-20 21:24:51
So how did kl1v know just 2min before the website updated?
2025-06-20 21:25:27
He could have tracked the polls, but what are the odds he buys this just 3min before the website updates?
2025-06-20 21:25:50
Well I can’t complain bought mine at 2c average
2025-06-20 21:27:39
But I sold 2K for 6c, never sell the 2nd closest bracket, breaking my own rules FML
2025-06-21 15:38:24
i dont do proposing sorry, post in the UMA or Polymarket discord and you will most likely find someone if you explain why this market can be resolved..
2025-06-21 23:54:03
Let me enjoy a 🌮 now NOs
2025-06-22 10:52:12
someone decided to donate some money...
2025-06-22 17:28:36
You may be rich soon dude
2025-06-25 13:01:06
good :)
2025-06-25 13:03:05
true
2025-06-25 16:38:53
here also [link removed]
2025-06-25 17:35:52
yes and he also wished him a happy birthday, the call happened June 14th, before this market was created.
2025-06-30 20:18:12
lol what is this update? 19% approval 9% disapproval? plus 5 others just like that
2025-06-30 20:32:38
where the hell are the numbers from, they show this as source but where is the 19-9 or 23-44? [link removed]
2025-06-30 21:29:39
they obviously fucked up, back up to 45,5
2025-06-30 21:53:19
Whales were checking the data and saw it made no sense whatsoever, they made a mistake with the numbers I posted below, didn’t make any sense.
2025-06-30 21:54:42
Tbf I may still lose this when I wake up tomorrow
2025-07-03 18:46:41
What the fuck is this, why is reading so hard for some people
2025-07-04 19:20:42
THE WHALES RIGGED THIS AGAIN 1!!!1!!!!!11!! Not that we told you how this would play out…
2025-07-04 21:22:43
Easy money, we warned you
2025-07-04 21:47:55
You nailed it - sometimes it’s helps to check top holders - easy 1.2K
2025-07-05 08:42:42
Your probably right this time
2025-07-07 22:07:43
think harder and you may get there
2025-07-08 00:07:10
sorry no exit liq for you
2025-07-08 00:07:59
Your lottery ticket is a L - sorry to tell you
2025-07-25 14:32:33
Are they sleeping?
2025-07-25 14:56:59
Eli and Nate - there are +4 polls missing, some days old...
2025-07-25 15:17:24
I guess they are gearing up for another late friday shuffle
2025-07-25 16:46:59
Only the daily Rasmussen
2025-07-25 18:20:23
46 WSJ, 50 trafalgar, 46 Emerson + daily Rasmussen
2025-07-25 18:20:36
Plus that nasty Gallup
2025-07-25 18:55:26
That’s why I have 7K for 1.7c average
2025-07-25 20:26:58
Yea the Gallup killed the 44.5
2025-07-25 21:18:13
I heard there was an update?
2025-07-25 21:24:37
Gallup 37% is in there right? Page 2 sorted by date - or which one do you mean?
2025-07-25 21:27:07
but i sold some just to be safe
2025-07-30 18:56:16
Yes sir
2025-08-02 00:09:38
sadly open orders = free money for Axios
2025-08-06 12:50:24
well he said Nuclear weapons...
2025-08-08 20:03:21
easy :)
2025-08-22 14:39:50
He smiled, that’s probably why
2025-08-22 20:14:16
Resolve: [link removed]
2025-08-22 22:13:46
Which idiot blew $750 just to be disputed 🤣
2025-08-29 18:10:39
Ends in 10 hours and it will be resolved around 8AM ET tomorrow after the first data point for August 30th appears. No worries we are good, they should add a 50% RMG, but its not enough to push it to 44.5
2025-09-17 18:12:03
Please come back in 6 weeks, we will greatly appreciate those donations.
2025-09-19 23:04:55
No way Atlas only gets it to 44.89 :(
2025-09-21 20:51:20
prob another 2hrs, Trump is supposed to speak last
2025-09-22 21:52:26
DONT TAKE IT!
2025-09-28 20:42:43
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ON MILES Miles has been detained by Saudi intelligence on false charges from an American who has created several fake reports through a bribed, corrupt journalist in order to make money on Polymarket. We are aware that someone who bet on the “no” option on polymarket has bribed a journalist from polymarket to put out fake news about Miles, manipulating the Saudi police so they would detain me to investigate potential terrorist ties. As we know, Miles has no criminal record in England and has never been convicted of anything terrorist related, otherwise the UK, US, EU etc authorities would have detained Miles long ago. However, the Saudi police obviously have taken this rather seriously. Some people have put Miles in danger and misfortune so they can make money off him failing his fast. He has also spent two weeks without seeing sunlight and remains in custody. His communication is limited but he will try to give updates on his situation as often as he can. Please pray for him.
2025-09-28 20:58:00
what reputation?
2025-10-01 17:56:05
Damn that press conference just ruined my cheap Ys
2025-10-01 19:44:22
this was trading mid low 80s because some guys were misinterpreting a cancelled hotel room booking in Seoul. There is basically no way Xi misses that summit if he's alive in 4 weeks.
2025-10-08 20:16:00
dude we are talking about the EOY market
2025-10-08 20:30:12
Ive got enough shares 🤣 no need to oversize on this
2025-10-08 20:32:17
Yes, it means until the end of the day on October 10, Eastern Time (i.e., until 11:59:59 PM ET on that date).
2025-10-09 06:00:07
I mean it is literally in the rules...
2025-10-17 22:45:16
gotta be fast to earn
2025-11-10 20:52:26
Trump: Any questions? Reporter: Sir how was the meeting with the Syrian president? He is a great leader, very handsome guy I must say, very strong
2025-11-10 20:54:18
I predicted this 3min ahead - THANK YOU VERY MUCH
2025-11-10 22:19:56
i mean im holding your side too, but the rules on this are pretty easy to understand: "Non-qualifying examples: Only photographic evidence exists without measurable duration."
2025-11-10 22:28:08
No, this was part of the original rules. Some video could still hit, someone was videotaping for sure, if it does not you gotta take the L but don’t blame the rules, they were spot on here
2025-11-22 11:50:37
Done: Nevertheless, I will always appreciate Marjorie, and thank her for her service to our Country!
2025-11-24 14:35:36
Watch the tape, he never said he spoke with Lula.
2025-11-25 15:18:46
Dude comes here bets 170 bucks and seriously expects to make 28K hahaha
2025-11-25 15:21:19
well sorry to tell you, but thats not how it works on here
2025-11-28 21:15:31
Cmon Eli please update that piece to roughly 41.0, UK doesnt have a day off :)
2025-11-30 21:42:35
its over
2025-11-30 22:03:44
Pretty good.
2025-11-30 22:09:45
Wake up dude 🤣
2025-12-03 05:51:43
You honestly think we need to have the tapes to resolve this market?
2025-12-10 21:20:23
He basically golfs every day from Christmas Eve to New Years Eve
2025-12-10 21:26:25
2020 On Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and December 27 - 30, President Trump played golf at Trump International Golf Club.
2025-12-10 21:27:27
2019: Arriving via Palm Beach International Airport, President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump traveled to West Palm Beach, where they spend their Christmas Holiday at his resort in Mar-a-Lago. On December 22, President Trump traveled to the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach. On December 24, President Trump attended a Christmas service at Bethesda-by-the-Sea. From December 26-31, President Trump traveled again to the Trump International Golf Club.
2025-12-10 21:29:31
2017: On December 23 and 24, President Trump traveled to Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach. On December 26, President Trump returned to Trump International Golf Club, where he golfed with Senator David Perdue and professional golfers Bryson DeChambeau and Dana Quigley
2025-12-10 21:30:13
2017 part 2: President Trump returned to the golf course on December 28.
2025-12-10 21:32:18
wont let me post the other stuff for EOY 2017, read it here [link removed]
2025-12-12 05:54:17
dont worry about the resolution source not updating since rules do allow other sources.
2025-12-12 05:55:34
true, rules allow other sources, this market was a gem for many month because people only checked the outdated data on trumpgolftrack
2025-12-15 19:50:02
I'm glad I figured that out when shares were at 22c 🫡
2025-12-15 21:08:28
Have you said thank you once?
2025-12-15 21:28:09
legend says he figured something out
2025-12-19 15:03:45
AG is a she...
2025-12-19 23:05:25
last minute surprise
2025-12-19 23:15:58
They usually do, but idc Im well covered on both ends :)
2025-12-19 23:26:30
it will be 42.2 (my guess) or 42.3 after the update, no way this stays anywhere close to 42.4
2025-12-19 23:37:10
actually I think its 42.25-3 with the many polls this week, influence is roughly 1.5, pretty large sample and A+. Also they adjust it down from 39.3 to 38.8. try it again in Gemini, what does it say with those stats?
2025-12-20 11:30:35
41.95311 - doesnt get closer to 41.9 than that
2025-12-22 20:40:35
Never say no to free money. +100% APY is pretty nice.
2025-12-22 20:44:18
thats huge news man! There is basically 1,4mio laying around for 4K at 0.3c, is this real life?
2025-12-23 08:43:49
well well well, markets like this happen every other week, its free money.
2025-12-28 17:19:26
sharp analysis, not that it didn't go down exactly like this in October
2025-12-30 20:30:08
Trumpgolftrack admin prob updating his page tomorrow
2025-12-30 20:59:33
Brutal ending (if over) - I feel bad for DerDon. I didnt see a T-1 Trafalgar poll after a 6 month break at all.
2025-12-30 23:57:09
surely no -$9 PNL guy with $15 positions and a whooping volume of $171 dollar.
2026-01-08 21:19:07
It's funny that people still believe this. I assume you're referring to Google Maps data, which measures the number of people physically entering the shop rather than the total volume of orders. Do you really believe that if the Pentagon orders 100 pizzas, 100 people have to show up at the shop to get them
2026-01-13 18:46:17
as expected :)
2026-01-15 00:34:38
tell your wife about it
2026-01-16 20:26:23
Get educated: [link removed]
2026-01-16 20:53:56
Im not selling
2026-01-16 21:03:26
all good bro i know :) just making that statement to other people, hold and pray, Trumps smartest pick is Waller no doubt.
2026-01-16 21:30:01
lol a guy with - $11K telling us the site is jam packed with retards. Ganz mein Humor.
2026-01-16 23:13:03
I am not BuckMySalls lol
2026-01-18 21:46:07
Im entering soon.
2026-01-18 23:03:48
lol Ill probably be your counterparty
2026-01-20 20:49:09
yea, he also said after Thanksgiving, before Christmas, early 2026, before Davos. He may pivot to before Easter in the next 2-3 weeks
2026-01-20 21:42:24
like every beggar you just burn money playing those crypto up down markets. No one will fund your gambling.
2026-01-21 19:32:54
Thank you Alexparker
2026-01-22 14:44:31
are you sure about that?
2026-01-22 14:46:31
we are not dipping we are printing
2026-01-22 15:05:05
Trump left with the pictured tie. Curtain and chair are the same as yesterday with Sissy. Thanks for playing
2026-01-22 15:05:49
your welcome ;)
2026-01-22 17:09:19
posted 3 hours ago: [link removed]
2026-01-30 11:00:17
A personal request could be anything from a DM to Putin on Truth Social to a carrier-pigeon-delivered letter.
2026-01-30 13:17:25
too bad you sold
2026-02-05 12:14:33
Huge news ahead! "Kamala HQ is turning into Headquarters"
2026-02-06 19:17:12
Wait till you learn what the word "by" means.
2026-02-06 19:47:57
if there was a meeting today this resolves both feb 6 and feb 13 to yes since it says meet "by" not meet "on"
2026-02-06 20:42:48
what kind of journey are you talking about? betting on bitcoin up or down markets is literally burning money
2026-03-01 01:59:27
Other than the fact that he is confirmed dead, you're doing fine, keep donating
2026-03-03 19:30:41
They have not denied it at all. All they have denied is "we are not part of the campaign against Iran". But "we are exercising our right to self-defense and to deter attacks on our country".
2026-03-13 19:15:53
yea, not sure why he was No. 2 behind Swalwell for such a long time, no poll ever had him over 4%.
2026-03-16 15:13:34
test
2026-03-23 16:20:45
🌮
2026-03-23 19:40:06
jesus christ i have to stop reading comments again, losing brain cells over stuff posted here
2026-04-08 01:33:27
None
2026-04-08 06:10:36
keep that alpha coming buddy
2026-04-10 13:05:00
tomorrow. "Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized)."
2026-04-10 18:49:41
Always possible, had Atlas on my list to finally drop, but looks unlikely since they will drop a Hungary poll. Most likely you are good, congrats in case u win 😊
2026-04-15 13:24:41
Man of his words here
2026-04-18 08:17:24
Dude
2026-04-18 11:54:50
Imagine taking Iran for its word... [link removed]
2026-04-19 12:12:38
Your welcome
2026-04-20 13:50:37
No matter how this ends, what a wild ride it’s been 😵💫😵💫😵💫
2026-04-20 13:52:33
they are not gonna land in the evening Islamabad time and go to bed.
2026-04-20 21:11:00
he saw me selling 🤭
2026-04-21 14:45:42
says a guy with 20 bucks invested 🤣
2026-04-21 14:59:17
haha where did i switch sides?
2026-05-05 13:08:03
115 it is, should be live soon
2026-05-05 13:17:06
sorry i cant tell you where i get the data from, just wait around 30min it will update soon. 27th and 28th both had +40 ships each.
2026-05-13 06:36:33
lol
2026-05-15 18:17:16
Guy with $3K volume wants to end Polymarket. Get a life brother
2026-05-23 21:27:16
open the fucking strait you crazy bastards!!!!!!
2026-06-26 10:20:24
"none have AIS on" - yea right, just around 90% of all ships have turned it on. If you like hard facts, check Lucerne, Al Danah Al Maryah, Togo Prosperity or any other ship crossing. AIS is ON for all.
2026-06-26 10:21:14
Dare to check Lucerne, Al Danah Al Maryah, Togo Prosperity or any other ship crossing. AIS is ON for all.