Account Information
Name:
Optimus-
Bio:
a general purpose, bi-pedal, autonomous humanoid robot capable of performing unsafe, repetitive or boring tasks
Pseudonym:
Trained-Sniffle
Created:
2024-12-05 10:17:37
Last Activity:
2 days ago
Tier:
Silver
profile-image-1526438-787bb0f2-bc16-4cd7-8d10-85af805f171d.jpg
Total Profit
$107,555
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$86,110.86
Markets traded
2,624
Trades
2,624
Largest win
$9,496.55
Profile views
1,301
Join date
2024-12-05 10:17:37
All-time rank
1865
All-time PnL
$107,554.83
All-time volume
$3,100,152.81
All-time profit
$107,463.77
Lifetime volume
$3,093,069.43
PnL series latest
$107,463.77
PnL series start
$106,422.00
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$22,149.49
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call? | Yes | 10322.3437 | $9,496.56 |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? | Yes | 7844.0481 | $4,036.17 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 5752.0172 | $3,247.91 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call? | No | 18516.129 | $-9,092.88 |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | No | 14661.3569 | $-3,384.49 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 3782.0361 | $-2,826.97 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 18000 | $0.50 | $0.76 | $13,725.00 | $4,725.00 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 14288.3145 | $0.31 | $0.36 | $5,093.78 | $723.69 |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes | 6084.1647 | $0.62 | $0.81 | $4,928.17 | $1,144.67 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 6830.9794 | $0.70 | $0.71 | $4,884.15 | $84.83 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18000 | $0.50 | $0.24 | $4,275.00 | $-4,725.00 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call? | Yes | 10322.3437 | $9,496.56 |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? | Yes | 7844.0481 | $4,036.17 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 5752.0172 | $3,247.91 |
| Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 3000 | $2,970.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | 24890.2364 | $2,922.34 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026? | Yes | $0.08 | 6891.3 | $551.30 |
| 1 day ago | TRADE | BUY | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | $0.88 | 192.083332 | $169.03 |
| 1 day ago | MAKER_REBATE | $0.00 | 18.3729 | $18.37 | |||
| 1 day ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 2.0609 | $2.06 | |||
| 1 day ago | TAKER_REBATE | $0.00 | 7.7462 | $7.75 |
Recent trades (2624)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.30 | 7949.708902 |
| 2 days ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | $0.85 | 2000 |
| 2 days ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | Yes | $0.72 | 828.918915 |
| 2 days ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.37 | 1330.1355 |
| 2 days ago | BUY | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | Yes | $0.69 | 82.58 |
Comments
2025-01-17 22:21:46
that guy is TRIPPING
2025-01-17 22:28:28
brother even if they dont its still banned
2025-01-18 18:27:41
this seems like the government shutdown market were people didnt understand that it resolves yes on technicalities
2025-01-20 21:09:10
yup, wont have to be published in the federal register
2025-01-20 21:23:59
the president can declare a national emergency just by signing and publishing the order. it doesnt need to be published in the archive to be in effect
2025-01-20 21:29:43
you are correct
2025-01-20 21:31:27
im banking on them publishing it today on the whitehouse page as that would meet the criteria
2025-01-20 21:34:55
i mean he said in his inaugural speech that he will do so today
2025-01-20 21:36:37
its already written and drafted on his desk. he will sign it and wh staff will publish, insane that this market is not at 90+
2025-01-20 21:36:45
that is true
2025-01-20 21:51:35
you should seriously look at the market were people are betting on the number of executive orders today
2025-01-20 21:52:23
either everyone there is wrong about something or you are
2025-01-20 21:55:14
what makes you think that? geniunely curious what your rationale is here
2025-01-20 22:05:37
Today, I will sign a series of historic executive orders. With these actions, we will begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of common sense - it's all about common sense. First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. ( literal quote from his inauguration speech)
2025-01-20 22:08:21
yup but im betting against that (:
2025-01-20 22:18:51
chatgpt ass response xd
2025-01-20 23:04:31
"With respect to Acts of Congress authorizing the exercise, during the period of a national emergency, of any special or extraordinary power, the President is authorized to declare such national emergency." this is enough to fulfill market condition
2025-01-21 00:50:34
never doubted it but shouldve still bought more lmao
2025-01-21 00:54:38
it will not, it doesnt have to be published in the register. this guy just cant read
2025-01-21 00:57:22
sorry brother, better luck on next one!
2025-01-21 00:58:00
congress has nothing to do with it being declared. order needs to be signed and published. after that congress needs to be informed which has zero to do with this market
2025-01-21 01:02:46
i've read the law. it cleary states that a national emergency is declared when the bill is signed. it goes immediately into effect, and the president has to inform congress directly afterwards
2025-01-21 01:05:53
maybe because congress doesnt have to pass it
2025-01-21 01:06:40
read please
2025-01-21 01:33:23
yup
2025-01-21 01:34:16
declare is the key word here xd
2025-01-21 01:37:40
if these guys are who we are betting against this site is literally free money lol
2025-01-21 01:40:49
the fuck you think nea stands for lmao
2025-01-21 01:44:13
its not because its signed and published xd
2025-01-21 01:44:36
wtf are u guys talking about xd
2025-01-21 01:45:06
dude
2025-01-21 01:45:16
he declared a national emergency xd
2025-01-21 01:46:04
wtf does that mean
2025-01-21 01:46:35
yea you deserve this L xd
2025-01-21 01:46:49
maybe stop relying on chatgpt answers for these bets
2025-01-21 01:47:46
ur right xd
2025-01-21 01:48:08
dude it doesnt have to be
2025-01-21 01:51:08
yea mate you should go read again when it is "declared". no need to publish in register for it to be in effect but you dont seem to care. good luck
2025-01-21 01:57:16
formal declaraction means declaring it. after declaring he has to notify and it will get published. one has nothing to do with the other
2025-01-21 01:58:01
for the no copers: formal declaraction means formally declaring it - which has been done. after declaring he has to notify congress and it will get published. one has nothing to do with the other
2025-01-21 01:59:34
can you just not read? or are u in cognitive dissonance bc of lost moneys
2025-01-21 02:00:47
bet more then
2025-01-22 21:54:31
you just need to click on the link, there is a short clip from the interview where he says it xd
2025-01-23 02:02:31
brother there was a teaser clip already where he says israel
2025-01-23 10:55:16
first half has been posted, second half is getting released tonight
2025-01-28 10:16:22
exactly
2025-01-28 10:38:41
https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-advances-restoration-historic-names-honoring-american-greatness
2025-01-28 10:39:17
not a month
2025-01-28 16:15:34
https://searchengineland.com/mount-mckinley-denali-google-bing-229444
2025-01-28 16:15:57
Was 2 or 3 days after the change in gnis i think
2025-01-28 18:22:57
pumping bags again I see?
2025-01-28 19:24:56
https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-advances-restoration-historic-names-honoring-american-greatness illiteracy sure seems prevelant on this site
2025-01-30 11:32:09
it was revealed to him in a dream
2025-01-31 09:45:35
https://searchengineland.com/mount-mckinley-denali-google-bing-229444 here an actual article, 3 days after executive order was announced
2025-01-31 10:16:49
bro had another revelation over night lmao
2025-01-31 11:53:45
they in fact do not meet only quarterly, where tf did u get that from
2025-01-31 11:59:24
What even is the "No" case here still? are y'all just betting that GNIS doesnt get updated in time? Whats your basis for that
2025-01-31 12:01:36
i really am trying to see the no case but it just seems to rely on wishful thinking and hopium
2025-01-31 12:36:42
yup its retarded, im not complaining tho
2025-01-31 13:06:35
bur time decay makes sense, this will continue to decrease until it suddenly happens - like the google announcement
2025-01-31 13:07:46
first week of feb will be gnis update, google maps will reflect this a couple days after
2025-01-31 13:34:26
i mean thats reasonable but gnis gets updated all the time ( not just the bimonthly standard updates) and google will surely update as soon as bnis is updated, seems like an easy decision for them
2025-01-31 13:40:56
yea they probably are not checking daily - but someone will be. there is a lot of attention on it. they will know within hours of gnis update
2025-01-31 23:05:32
Sold yes and took a much smaller no position to minimize risk. Read through a lot of BNG meeting notes. They might move slower than expected. Might flip again in the future bjt im taking a comparatively lower bet on No for now
2025-02-01 10:18:37
"Twitter trainee" os straight up cope
2025-02-01 10:31:21
Not a single person has so far been replaced.
2025-02-01 19:23:29
After the BGN approved the renaming of all landmarks that included the term "squaw" and decided on new names it took 8 months for all 600 names to be changed in GNIS
2025-02-01 19:27:07
It's legit copy pasting how tf did they need 8 months to do that lmao. doge is gonna have a field day with them
2025-02-03 08:40:19
I was wrong and should not have flipped
2025-02-03 09:17:03
sunk cost fallacy at work
2025-02-03 09:18:53
i flipped bc i thought GNIS might not update fast enough, but then i found an exact precedent where this siutation happened before. They updated within 2 weeks
2025-02-04 19:48:10
lmaooo
2025-02-04 20:00:42
at this point ride it out
2025-02-04 20:00:58
dude is not even in the frame anymore and didnt answer one question yet xd
2025-02-04 22:42:15
Molok Luyuk
2025-02-05 10:54:58
i just highly doubt the trump administration gives a fuck about pausing this for the sake of negotiations. they know mexico isnt willing to blow up a deal over this
2025-02-05 15:11:47
sure (:
2025-02-05 15:42:31
added
2025-02-08 11:50:17
what forecasts?
2025-02-08 13:47:43
why did you sell half your shares at a 50% loss?
2025-02-09 20:04:13
GG boys!!
2025-02-09 20:15:01
gnis has in fact updated it
2025-02-09 20:17:45
https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/gaz-domestic/public/search/names/558730
2025-02-09 20:18:54
np (:
2025-02-09 20:20:02
The Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico, with an average depth 5300 ft is a major body of water bordered and nearly landlocked by North America with the Gulf's eastern, northern, and northwestern shores in the U.S. and its southwestern and southern shores in Mexico. Bordered by Cuba on the SE, it connects to the Atlantic Ocean via the Florida Straits between the U.S. and Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba.
2025-02-09 20:54:27
u lost a dollar brother
2025-02-09 21:03:03
congrats!
2025-02-10 19:00:15
no logical fallacy you can just literally compare how long google took last time something like this happened ( spoiler: it was 2-3 days)
2025-02-14 08:54:44
i mean the german chancellor asked the parliament to declare a national emergency
2025-02-14 09:20:02
Oh! Free money actually
2025-02-14 09:22:59
actually i'm wrong. he used similar terminology but didnt ask for a national emergency as defined in this market. He declared the ukraine war a "national emergency" for which ther parilament should allow government to take on more debt which is not a national emergency as per this definition at all.
2025-02-14 09:31:50
read the rules brother
2025-02-14 14:25:52
okay i mean if you think the odds that the german government will declare a national emergency in 14 days is 3,7% or higher go knock yourself out.
2025-02-14 14:30:01
fair enough, im just saying, the speech this market was created on was mistranslated.
2025-02-14 14:30:29
basically the chancellor asked the parliament to authorize emergency spending to fund the war in ukraine
2025-02-14 14:31:57
a national emergency would only be declared if germany gets attacked by another country, there is a major natural catastrophe or if a coup d etat is happening - and let me tell you odds of that are not 3% in 2 weeks
2025-02-14 14:59:36
don't wanna lock up too much capital for now. if you guys pump it up more i will load up
2025-02-15 09:54:57
it is in fact not true
2025-02-19 23:15:02
there is some massive cope in this comment section and it has nothing to do with the market lmao
2025-02-19 23:36:29
dont think so right? rules say he has to say it during his speech, q&a wouldnt be part of that id think
2025-03-05 02:41:44
haha where was the drill baby drill bet xdd
2025-03-05 02:44:50
transgender mice in the state of the union lmaooo
2025-03-05 03:28:09
that kid doesnt look a day younger than 40
2025-03-05 03:36:33
retard!!!
2025-03-05 03:38:05
they are gonna fund the dome with crypto
2025-03-05 03:38:32
the dome is going to shoot retards
2025-03-05 03:42:21
i had no on everything and yes on crypto so im gonna go all in on retards to recoup
2025-03-05 03:42:39
its pelosi
2025-03-05 03:42:45
shes in the audience
2025-03-05 03:43:24
pelosi is sniping the words he says, the stream is delayed
2025-03-05 03:47:53
president retard
2025-03-05 03:48:41
? xd
2025-03-05 03:49:22
war is retarded!
2025-04-22 21:49:33
yea this wasnt obvious at all
2025-04-22 21:53:35
dumdum
2025-04-23 13:21:02
Maybe it is not rising because he didnt say that? xd
2025-04-23 21:52:56
Just ask ChatGPT!
2025-04-24 11:06:37
easy no then!
2025-04-24 15:21:04
? xd
2025-04-29 09:08:10
I encourage you to think really hard about what the difference betweeen WAU and MAU is
2025-04-29 12:33:03
Oh i see what you mean now. I have never heard anyone ever reference monthly WAU users though. It's not a term that describes anything as it would just be WAU times 4
2025-04-29 12:35:09
The 800m number was stated without a specific timeframe in which they use it. Altman just said that 10 % of the world population use it a lot
2025-05-07 19:36:57
thank you kim jong un dont rug me please
2025-05-08 07:18:55
You are the best!
2025-05-08 18:38:42
Yea that made no sense
2025-05-16 08:29:46
the great flippening
2025-05-27 23:27:51
i love spacex
2025-05-28 00:37:07
[link removed]
2025-05-28 18:06:14
Update your bio!
2025-06-03 10:20:05
insane bag pumping
2025-06-05 08:29:27
60-80 is a reach lol
2025-06-05 15:50:24
"told her" lmao close on merkel
2025-06-05 16:54:46
yea i think its somewhere around 35-40%, rollout could very easily slip into july or get restricted to certain people - still a great value bet imo
2025-06-05 17:00:54
thats clearly not enough
2025-06-05 17:02:38
yea this will probably blow up lol
2025-06-05 17:17:16
true but : Any public statement made by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2025-06-05 17:34:12
you clearly don't know their twitter / truth habits lmao
2025-06-05 18:37:46
yup
2025-06-05 18:48:43
wait but i was assured this wasnt gonna resolve yes because trump will never send mean tweets!
2025-06-05 19:16:07
[link removed]
2025-06-05 21:43:34
yes, load up on yes shares buddy
2025-06-06 08:51:42
don't be a PANICAN
2025-06-06 10:22:46
what if trump asks putin to fly nasa missions to the iss from now on??
2025-06-06 10:23:41
i couldnt believe my eyes when i saw that price lmao
2025-06-06 11:39:38
[link removed]
2025-06-06 22:45:06
Elon is clearly not known for doing something when he feels compelled to do so!
2025-06-06 22:48:58
He would never do that. Just line he wouldnt focus on his companies AND join a white house administration
2025-06-07 05:25:35
[link removed] this is enough to qualify yes
2025-06-07 06:12:17
reconciliation = the act of causing two people or groups to become friendly again after an argument or disagreement. wishing each other well is being friendly after a disagreement per definition. the statement has also been reciprocated
2025-06-09 10:53:41
Damn, guess i missed that
2025-06-09 21:23:41
[link removed]
2025-06-09 22:16:13
absolutely
2025-06-09 22:17:04
spirit of this market is not wether they talk 1on1 but wether they stop beefing and are cool with each other again which is the case now.
2025-06-10 20:03:35
i think hes gonna say bitcoin guys
2025-06-10 20:41:12
no way lmao
2025-06-10 20:41:24
xddd
2025-06-11 00:17:57
[link removed] first public rides june 22!
2025-06-11 08:00:14
what
2025-06-11 13:19:16
it was revealed to him in a dream
2025-06-13 12:10:21
yea they aint gettin through
2025-06-13 12:11:25
entire leadership of iran airforce is dead, israeli jets are refueling in irans airspace
2025-06-13 12:35:39
lets goooo
2025-06-13 13:20:13
good thing i flipped haha
2025-06-17 20:05:01
please dont
2025-06-17 21:24:41
no
2025-06-19 20:14:22
L M A O
2025-06-19 20:19:59
8 hours xd
2025-06-19 21:04:21
Yup rules specify eastern time so around 7h left for strikes
2025-06-19 21:33:56
[link removed] 6,5 h left, good luck guys
2025-06-20 07:23:29
sorry to break it to you : A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify.
2025-06-20 07:28:30
i think its a reach that within a week they will open rollout to anyone
2025-06-20 08:41:00
was it revealed to you in a dream?
2025-06-20 12:10:07
rules specifically mention invite only testers. they dont count
2025-06-20 12:22:30
they are invited to test the service. it is very clear that this is not "members of the general public" but invited testers
2025-06-20 17:35:22
There is a small chance that they open the invite only within the first week to everyone. If they dont and they launch the service only with invites as currently described in june it will resolve no
2025-06-22 21:05:13
MIGA!!!
2025-06-24 11:23:25
trump is on the phone with netanyahu talking about what they had for breakfast
2025-06-25 15:09:56
didnt happen yet
2025-06-25 15:10:26
(in case u mean the axiom mission that wont count bc its a private mission)
2025-06-26 08:44:15
end of july :)
2025-06-27 13:39:13
it will not mate
2025-06-27 16:53:42
I get the angle but there is no shot UMA resolves that as yes. If you can't use the option on a freshly bought tesla yourself it wont count towards that
2025-06-28 08:47:52
Apart from that: You think they didnt consiszently monitor amd and where not ready to intervene?
2025-06-28 09:08:14
It did. Doesnt mean they werent ready to drive it themselves at any moment. There was a crew of like 30 people present
2025-06-29 19:38:19
@theflash420 if you want to buy some more lmk, i will set up orders
2025-06-29 22:30:07
i got filled like 500 shares at 56 lmaoo
2025-07-03 14:54:13
that should tell you something mate
2025-07-06 13:53:50
none of the filings, even if real have created a party. they are all unauthorized single canidate committees
2025-07-06 14:21:05
thats true but as of now nothing that qualifies has been filed afaik
2025-07-17 00:43:25
hahaha
2025-07-25 12:48:24
was it revealed to you in a dream?
2025-07-25 15:37:34
if there is no clip that doesnt count
2025-07-26 20:57:44
I think the IDF had consent!
2025-08-01 11:03:44
its a very low liquidity market and the spread is pretty high. price changes dont necessarily reflect actual change in the odds, it could just be a single person removing a limit order
2025-08-07 17:18:44
its no.1 on lmarena
2025-08-11 18:35:39
safety driver doesnt matter
2025-09-23 08:32:50
sure the US COULD have done it but there is zero evidence that they actually DID do it. just pure conjecture and a few random "news" articles speculating about the origin of the drone
2025-09-23 11:14:08
only bet on sporting events, not on markets that can be manipulated by money!
2025-09-23 17:07:51
someone definetly bombed yemen but your entire argument is based on a single wonky source claiming the drone was 100% american with zero evidence
2025-09-24 18:03:33
who wouldnt want to take a break on the beach of crete before breaking the illegal siege?
2025-09-25 17:12:15
Full steam ahead! Break the illegal siege!
2025-09-26 19:00:51
This truly is the Odyssee of our time
2025-09-27 20:43:34
FULL SPEED AHEAD!!
2025-10-20 20:36:16
The empirical conditional probability that SFBS beats given BAC & USB both beat is probably in the ballpark of 80 - 90%
2025-10-21 22:24:09
You can do it Elon!
2025-10-23 14:03:04
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blackstone reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.23 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release
2025-11-05 13:03:32
sound logic
2025-11-06 21:54:47
what a surprise
2025-12-03 21:23:36
no
2025-12-04 11:04:01
Cybertruck preorders began on the day it was revealed
2025-12-04 16:20:03
thats not what im saying
2025-12-04 16:40:14
JoeMaserati will list 100s of Kabutos daily for 20 bucks, refund buyers because "his shed burned down" and repeat!
2025-12-04 16:45:26
buying cards is expensive, listing them is free!
2025-12-15 20:08:25
no
2026-01-05 23:04:50
are these human robots in the room with us right now?
2026-01-09 09:55:50
to the moooon!
2026-01-16 22:20:01
as a certified elontard: he ain't winning this
2026-01-20 18:47:13
generational retard
2026-01-22 23:04:05
nothing new sadly
2026-01-28 21:12:57
Don't bet against Elon!
2026-01-28 23:11:30
Don't bet against Elon!!!
2026-01-28 23:19:32
The best kind off days!!
2026-08-28 22:29:09
fuck
2026-08-28 23:51:44
i fat-fingered the buy button
2026-08-29 00:58:34
me neither
2026-08-30 05:08:22
Do you think changing a name is as simple as drinking water, something that can be done in two and a half business days?