Account Information
Name:
Analista.
Bio:
It is not a matter of what is true, but a matter of what is perceived to be true.
Pseudonym:
Mammoth-Tape
Created:
2023-10-19 21:02:41
Last Activity:
4 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@Analista_pm
profile-image-140382-00a74493-0658-4117-9bdb-eefb8aaad0ac.png
Total Profit
$47,806
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$4,408.49
Markets traded
1,225
Trades
1,225
Largest win
$3,063.48
Profile views
1,829
Join date
2023-10-19 21:02:41
All-time rank
3685
All-time PnL
$47,806.04
All-time volume
$2,930,223.98
All-time profit
$47,806.04
Lifetime volume
$2,930,223.98
PnL series latest
$47,295.53
PnL series start
$47,574.39
PnL series points
23
Weighted volume
$10,484.14
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | No | 6500 | $3,063.48 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 8315.71 | $2,089.32 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 4500 | $2,080.01 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? | No | 3999.84 | $-2,954.23 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | No | 7200.405807 | $-1,603.42 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 6000 | $-1,577.53 |
Open positions (4)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | 4734.4956 | $0.40 | $0.41 | $1,957.71 | $80.81 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | No | 1500 | $0.28 | $1.00 | $1,499.25 | $1,077.18 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? | No | 570 | $0.75 | $0.99 | $563.73 | $136.42 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? | No | 400 | $0.74 | $0.97 | $387.80 | $89.78 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | No | 6500 | $3,063.48 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 8315.71 | $2,089.32 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 4500 | $2,080.01 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 3499.652683 | $1,974.85 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 4000 | $1,556.85 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.44 | 1585.74 | $692.83 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.48 | 310 | $147.79 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.50 | 250 | $125.00 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.50 | 89.02 | $44.51 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.50 | 141.69 | $70.78 |
Recent trades (1225)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.44 | 1585.74 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.48 | 310 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.50 | 141.69 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.43 | 300 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | Yes | $0.24 | 5 |
Comments
2023-10-27 19:26:09
It's happening
2023-11-19 22:16:25
Lmao milei at 95 rn is crazy, y'all have no idea
2023-11-19 22:30:52
estas como loquita hermano
2024-11-16 10:45:01
The PARCHIN site is NOT a facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers
2024-11-16 10:46:56
Look at this DW article of 4 days ago, the new israeli minister says that iran has never been more exposed to the possibility of an attack to its nuclear facilities, the october attack on the Parchin site was indeed NOT an attack to one of them
2024-11-16 10:47:32
[link removed]
2024-11-16 10:49:42
If this market resolve to YES it would be a complete scam. Nobody can say what is done at parchin site and no nuclear activity was ever recorded over there. It should be a NO resolution based on the international consensus about the targets of october attack.
2024-11-17 13:15:28
Parchin site is indeed a missile facility not a nuclear weapon development site. The resolution of this market will indeed have no sense. Not even p4 is correct, its not a matter of having little information, is a matter of wrong information. Only axios has described parchin as nuclear site.
2024-12-04 20:18:06
This could have been your only comment
2024-12-21 04:54:33
It must be a joke
2024-12-21 05:02:17
So no government shutdown but still government shutdown?
2025-01-03 20:40:58
"Police figures from 2023 reveal that group-based child sexual abuse accounted for 3.7% of all sexual offences against children reported to police. According to the data, 26% of group-based child sexual abuse happened within families, compared with 17% involving groups including grooming gangs."
2025-01-05 19:12:35
Only Mr. Trumpo skipped a presidential inauguration (2021) breaking a 150 years tradition
2025-01-05 19:42:53
yeah trump probably will skip this time
2025-01-06 02:06:13
Gud math, but next time read the market rules first
2025-01-06 10:41:12
If you check the odds for Clinton, Obama and Biden they are all over 95%. only the odds for Clinton are at 89%. So i really don’t understand where did you got that 74% from
2025-01-06 11:16:40
Yeah but here we are talking about group rapes. You’r figures are about all the abuses. Inquiries for sexual abuse already exist in the UK, if grooming gangs accounted for 3.7% of abuses on children do you think they will please mr. Musk and spend more public money on a new inquiry?
2025-01-06 12:18:46
yeah a 6-7% greater than 74%. I tought our friend Euan considered as "president" also nethanyahu, xi jin pin ecc..
2025-01-06 12:27:50
Man the "fair" price of this market should be 78% if you take the midpoints of the other 4 independent market. Anyways based also on historical precedent it's extremely rare that an alive ex president doesn't partecipate at the inaugurations. Anyways if you think that your bet is +EV that all it matters.
2025-01-08 21:39:51
Houses on fire at 22333 pacific coast highway
2025-01-08 21:40:11
Check for instagram stories around nobu restaurant malibu
2025-01-08 21:50:11
You won’t be able to see the stories then, there new videos of cbs nwes on tiktok anyways
2025-01-08 22:35:13
He really likes the laguna
2025-01-08 22:37:06
Carbutbetter use nasa firms indeed
2025-01-09 16:59:06
And do you think that with everything that is going on rn they will report the arrest of some idiot lighting up a trashcan? buy no
2025-01-09 17:01:08
this market exists only because elon answered some tweet.
2025-01-09 20:25:09
PolloFritto can’t stop buying for some reason
2025-01-09 21:36:56
she is already free
2025-01-09 21:36:59
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/venezuela-opposition-says-leader-machado-freed-after-detention?embedded-checkout=true
2025-01-09 21:45:15
bought what i had to :)
2025-01-09 22:01:28
+50% in 17 minutes how much it is annualised?
2025-01-09 22:10:07
https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1877454445979570400/video/1
2025-01-09 22:10:32
like in a park?
2025-01-09 22:12:13
even if somehow they forced her to make it, it still count for market resolution i believe. Anyways that's the reason i quickly sold at 95, you never know what happens in this website
2025-01-09 22:55:35
No more fake shutdown i see
2025-01-10 05:10:53
Lmao not even a single article just twitter bs
2025-01-10 05:15:02
Authorities have not confirmed whether the man was responsible or had any connection with the current wildfires.
2025-01-10 05:15:44
They literally just copied the twitter bs
2025-01-10 05:19:32
Police confirm that the suspect is detained not arrested
2025-01-10 05:19:36
https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1877550672947634665?s=46
2025-01-13 21:48:27
guys quit the opium please
2025-01-13 22:39:26
Pls sir some more opium sir
2025-01-15 17:37:23
https://tvpworld.com/84460518/netanyahu-to-skip-auschwitz-80th-anniversary-despite-immunity-from-arrest
2025-01-16 11:05:43
A nice article from the times of israel about the absurdity of this topic: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/is-the-80th-anniversary-of-auschwitz-liberation-about-survivors-or-netanyahu/
2025-01-18 17:45:02
"Trump said he hadn't made a final decision but was considering a 90-day extension of the Sunday deadline for TikTok's China-based parent company to sell to a non-Chinese-buyer or face a U.S. ban."
2025-01-18 18:16:25
The most interesting part of this article is what the white house press secretary said: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called TikTok’s plans to go dark “a stunt” in a statement Saturday morning. “We have seen the most recent statement from TikTok. It is a stunt, and we see no reason for TikTok or other companies to take actions in the next few days before the Trump Administration takes office on Monday,” she said. “We have laid out our position clearly and straightforwardly: actions to implement this law will fall to the next administration. So TikTok and other companies should take up any concerns with them,” she said.
2025-01-18 19:06:34
Nothing wrong with what you say but the statement the white house released clearly says that they will not enforce the law and that it will be trump's decision. So if they publicly said that they will not enforce why should apple enforce it
2025-01-18 19:16:45
Yeah but assurance from the press secretary that "third parties" should not take actions until the next administrations sworn in should be enough for apple to wait until trumps decision before shutting it donw
2025-01-18 19:42:35
Imagine the panic on this market if apple does not ban the 19 jan at 00:00 ET
2025-01-19 00:19:05
[link removed]
2025-01-19 01:13:15
[link removed]
2025-01-19 01:21:53
[link removed]
2025-01-19 11:22:32
Trump stated that he will break the record of executive orders issued on day 1. What numbers are we talking about. “President Joe Biden holds the record for the most executive orders signed on the first day and first week in office. On his first day, Biden issued nine executive orders, six of which reversed orders from the Trump administration.” So 9 EOs. Do you really think that trump will sign 40 or more EO during his first day? Politically and logistically is a mess… 1) you can’t communicate properly the policies you are implementing, and Trump really cares about people to learn he fulfilled his campaign promises; 2) Logistically speaking is a nightmare to implement all these policies and totally unnecessary. So even if Trump will sign threefold the EO signed by Biden on day 1 we are still talking about 27-30 EO, and that will already be impressive. The 100 EO trump is talking about, are set to be implemented during the first 100 days of his presidency, no the first 24 hours.
2025-01-19 11:30:12
It's a 150 year customs for alive ex presidents to be present at presidential inaugurations
2025-01-19 11:31:05
The only one who skipped an inauguration on purpose was trump in 2021... for obvious reason won't happen this time
2025-01-19 14:58:19
Dude what the hell do you think that he’s selling an antidandruff shampoo or what? “This EO is great for…” lmao
2025-01-19 16:04:16
https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-trump-biden-china-bdc79b7ce741a81761f67ea56d410103
2025-01-19 16:05:39
Trump will extend it tomorrow and they will find a deal 100%
2025-01-19 17:16:20
Joelzmi premium is a thing rn. Price as soon as he stop buying will be 70-75
2025-01-19 17:34:16
Statement from tiktok that they are working with providers to restore the service https://x.com/tiktokpolicy/status/1881030712188346459?s=46
2025-01-19 17:35:56
Very likely to be back in the next 36 hours
2025-01-19 18:10:13
Apple clearly stated they ban it due to legislation, stop wasting your money and read about UMA disputes
2025-01-19 18:13:30
good that others haven't
2025-01-19 23:09:08
If trumps signs 39 i’ll laugh so bad
2025-01-19 23:11:28
It will probably be in the range 15-35 tough
2025-01-19 23:43:07
[link removed]
2025-01-19 23:43:34
You might wanna learn the difference to understand tomorrow prices
2025-01-20 00:10:11
[link removed]
2025-01-20 10:46:38
200 executive ACTIONS in omnibus executive ORDERS. Again fair range is 15-35 to me, everything else is propaganda.
2025-01-20 12:29:08
It must be like this then
2025-01-20 12:45:54
People starting to realize, plus the EOs will be omnibus
2025-01-20 12:52:00
even 10 will be the first time in history, even 30. Trump said many things, some are true (he will break the record) some are just propaganda (100 Eos).
2025-01-20 12:55:23
There are around 16/17 topics trump want to dress day one. Even if he signs 2 EO for each topic (nonsense since the policies can be included in just one EO), it will still be under 40.
2025-01-20 13:00:37
Yeah that's what it counts, No memorandum, No executive actions. Only Eos that will be reported on the federal register. And omnibus EO will count 1
2025-01-20 13:01:08
and he can still say to the ameritards that he signed 200 Executive actions
2025-01-20 16:41:06
They are talking close to 100
2025-01-20 17:22:09
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/20/us/trump-executive-orders
2025-01-20 20:14:03
Bro whos your dealer
2025-01-20 21:50:26
lol non of that is an executive order
2025-01-21 00:06:11
let them dream
2025-01-21 00:18:16
You'll learn tomorrow don't worry
2025-01-21 07:02:46
you learned?
2025-01-21 10:45:35
It is clear "mexico and canada". Is not like the other market where clearly stated that tariff on only one of the two would have count
2025-01-21 12:21:50
25% general tariff on 800bln worth of good is very likely too
2025-01-21 12:47:56
Looks like 10000 Executive orders pt.2
2025-01-21 18:10:43
cheetoz thank you very much, I really appreciate what you did. I promise you i'll do my best to turn those 5 in a 100. Up we go sir!
2025-01-22 14:56:22
After looking at your portfolio i’m curious on why you betting on no here
2025-01-22 18:30:28
I don't think the guy can't wait to go to Rogan's podcast after 12 years of prison.
2025-01-23 18:28:32
Yeah well said, unlikely but always possible. I think that on this one, if Putin’s ever agree to receive him, very much depends on Fridman willingness to bend at Putin's feet. After Tucker Carlson it is pretty obvious to anyone that Fridman will not have any degree of freedom in an interview. Plus the way he conducted the interview with Zelenskyy, already sparked a lot of criticism towards him. If he ever interview Putin, his imbalance toward the Kremlin regime will become too evident to deny, and the podcast credibility would be seriously affected. I Think that this tradeoff between peoples perception of him (& his podcast) and the opportunity to interview (if we can says so) a war criminal, is what really determines the feasibility of this episode… and this IF Putin ever accepts. Anyways, it is extremely unlikely that it will be recorded before the end of February, and he has the episode with Modi scheduled first.
2025-01-23 21:12:18
https://polymarket.com/event/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march?tid=1737666673035
2025-01-23 21:13:29
https://polymarket.com/event/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march?tid=1737666673035
2025-01-23 21:16:08
State level bitcoin reserve in 36 days anybody? https://polymarket.com/event/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march/new-state-bitcoin-reserve-before-march?tid=1737666673035
2025-01-23 21:16:38
everyone go buy YES!
2025-01-23 22:21:26
Either the title or the market rule is wrong. Who the hell writes this markets omg
2025-01-25 16:19:45
TexMexTRex currenlty holding 37% of 'Yes' shares. The market is extremely imbalanced
2025-01-25 17:13:37
Update: following this comment he dumped half of his shares. Currently holding 17%
2025-01-25 23:12:14
Markets for tariff on Canada and Mexico before march are trading at 75% yes. The odds of an executive action imposing tariff before February 28 are indeed reasonably high. This market is about tariffs to be “across-the-board” 25% on Canada AND Mexico and that is a whole different story. So far the only piece of policy signed by trump on Tariffs and trade requires an investigation by several federal agencies on trade imbalance with Mexico,Canada and other countries to be delivered by April 1st. Before that, is more likely that trump statements will be nothing more than threats aimed at foster negations on trade and other topics. This is why this market is currently trading at 25-7% yes. If you don’t trust me, earlier this week, Goldman Sachs economists estimated the odds of this exact kind tariff being imposed by February 1 to be around 20%. What is more likely instead, are tariffs on strategic goods and that’s why market on NON-general tariff before march are trading at 75% yes.
2025-01-26 10:51:57
Let's go bitcoiners! when lambo? Taxpayer money coming in February i guess
2025-01-27 11:06:47
you can still get 13cent
2025-01-28 19:42:54
They must be really fast, almost as fast as for the EO on birthright citizenship
2025-01-28 19:50:37
If, it’s unlawful https://thehill.com/business/budget/5110266-democrats-question-legality-of-trump-freeze-on-federal-grants/amp/
2025-01-28 21:17:41
Yeah definitely, we still have to see what happens tough
2025-01-31 09:58:39
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Intenci%C3%B3n%20de%20Voto%20en%20Ecuador.pdf
2025-01-31 17:06:23
Crazy part is exception for oil will still count as general tariff even tough oil account for 25% of imports from canada
2025-02-01 17:51:46
great analysis
2025-02-01 18:12:52
what the hell
2025-02-02 08:25:31
yessir!!! to the moon
2025-02-04 18:47:31
Are you seeing an escalation or a deescalation on the so called "tradewar" right now?
2025-02-04 19:27:02
Idk, we’ll se, plus yall forgetting that 10% tariff are on top of tariff that were already in place
2025-02-06 18:11:49
What if the judge in Massachusetts block everything? how will this thing resolve in that case
2025-02-06 18:22:11
So if monday is blocked by court it will resolve to the lowest bound? lmaoo give me that clarification asap
2025-02-06 18:26:52
It's blocked from implementation not moved lol
2025-02-06 18:26:54
https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-request-block-trumps-federal-government-employee-buyout/story?id=118535508
2025-02-06 18:32:07
Yeah but clarification from polymarket should come anyways cause the market rule did not contemplate a restraining order to be implemented
2025-02-06 18:33:37
Also because if monday is blocked, there will be no information from the trump administration on how many employee accepted the offer
2025-02-06 19:05:29
Yeah idk what to think about this market. We'll never know exactly how many accepted the buyout until 6 of feb as stated by market rule because: 1) the deadline is now monday 2) If monday the court will decide to block everything, the proposal will never be implemented so no official number will ever be released.
2025-02-06 20:03:42
Idk because the only thing clear from this rule is that the market will resolve on number of people that accept the offer, so this might count even if the court blocks the implementation on monday. Would have been nice if they stated in the rules that the market would have resolve to the lowest bound if no buyout was implemented, but they didn’t so i sold and took the L.
2025-02-07 17:43:16
The point is that either polymarket expose it's opinion trough a clarification note or either they don't. If they don't it will be in UMA hands, and in that case it will probably be whatever official number/percentage will be released, and of course accounting people that accepted the offer during the weekend. Then in the case the judge blocks the whole thing, they'll probably stick to consensus on the number, and good luck with that in the resolution process. Pretty sure this market will be a hell of a mess late monday
2025-02-10 15:42:43
I can’t believe people are pumping 20-30% cause they read about blanket tariff on steel and aluminum
2025-02-10 21:01:51
Almost sounds like 1937 again!
2025-02-12 13:00:07
sauce
2025-02-12 13:07:25
bruh who you talking with
2025-02-12 16:21:06
are they currently voting for tulsi confirmation or something else?
2025-02-12 16:34:47
look like they voted no?
2025-02-12 16:36:33
Is the news of the confirmation due to curtis confirmation or they voted?
2025-02-12 16:36:41
curtis vote*
2025-02-12 16:37:19
lol
2025-02-12 16:37:55
2usd worth of fun
2025-02-12 16:41:04
tushi is now confirmed toshi, go back buying cartel shares
2025-02-12 19:18:03
they do not comprehend
2025-02-13 07:01:11
He will tweet
2025-02-13 07:02:06
And he has 46h to do it
2025-02-13 07:27:38
Just woke up, still figuring out lol
2025-02-13 09:03:02
The time count is wrong i think, market rules says it will be untill 12pm et, so 40 hours left
2025-02-13 09:07:56
read the rules.
2025-02-13 09:08:08
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ye (@kanyewest) posts on X between February 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and February 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
2025-02-13 09:29:08
It' 4am ET time rn
2025-02-13 09:30:16
Not stupid enough to lose 3,6k on elon musk tweet lol
2025-02-13 09:37:10
yeah your right getting N of tweet is luck, gambling 3,6k on it is a matter of idiocy
2025-02-14 22:55:59
I’m very disappointed
2025-02-15 12:23:46
why this market retarted
2025-02-17 14:20:54
Damn i’m really sorry about it. Can you please share more info about the scam so that people can avoid it? Thanks man
2025-02-17 14:28:52
so he sent you an email with a link after you contacted polymarket? If so thats fishy
2025-02-17 18:22:30
a 65% chance that general tariff from 1% to 40%+ will be imposed to the European Union before june?
2025-02-17 18:24:26
should be 20% combined
2025-02-17 19:54:51
This are the kind of market that will help polymarket to solve their legal trouble in the u.s
2025-02-17 19:56:22
Yesterday
2025-02-17 20:01:00
What else this thing need to move https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1891572283161944433?s=46
2025-02-17 21:16:42
I can’t believe this
2025-02-17 22:42:30
Do someone know the rationale behind some market being tradable ad fraction of cents and others not?
2025-02-17 23:36:32
Thx
2025-02-18 15:47:40
16d chess
2025-02-18 21:07:29
Funny how everybody is hoping jail for this guy but not for Milei. Viva la libertad carajo
2025-02-19 17:31:29
Has something like this ever happened in the past or is this the first instances of such a freaking weird market?
2025-02-19 19:45:27
I've read the comments. Either washing or insiders, the thing is how can you tell one from the other. This platform offers great opportunities, this one seem too good to be true tough.
2025-02-19 23:29:44
This might be the biggest trolling ever made here
2025-02-19 23:32:27
Why nobody scared this being an ultramega rugpull
2025-02-19 23:52:10
Donda and bianca censori?
2025-02-20 13:20:03
Someone finally asking the right questions
2025-02-20 13:52:53
Gold market
2025-02-20 18:13:43
i think sweden
2025-02-20 18:16:50
Yes $ Positions in Profit 📈 $1,657,943 lmao
2025-02-20 19:07:33
You can see who you are trading share with on polyscan, how do you wash money here exactly?
2025-02-20 19:42:01
Either way this market will be remembered
2025-02-20 19:42:30
This shit got 5 mil volume in 48h
2025-02-20 19:45:01
You are actually just chilling
2025-02-20 19:54:28
Sir what about the sub?
2025-02-20 20:26:06
Is your source the same x post people posted some minutes ago?
2025-02-20 20:35:52
There is no one in this space closer to Kanye’s Reichsleitung than me, so y’all niggas quit larping like you know these dudes and know what he’s going to do. I literally just spoke to multiple Schutzstaffel of his team in a group call about this “Einsatz”. Not saying it will or won’t happen, but quit spreading false rumors like you know what’s going on to be cool.
2025-02-21 09:02:17
Where
2025-02-21 09:03:07
Lmao this is pure non sense panic rn
2025-02-21 09:04:15
I’m not coping bro, except for price action what exactly happen?
2025-02-21 09:04:30
And do you thing i care of 30$?
2025-02-21 09:06:53
Go work
2025-02-21 09:41:28
learn the hard way
2025-02-21 09:43:42
The insiders have pumped yes to sell high and buy chep no, it's all a scheme
2025-02-21 09:44:07
they gave couple of bagels to coin desk for article and made tens of thousands
2025-02-21 09:46:52
This is the final war between polytards and insiders, either we get +20% volume on next market here or negative
2025-02-21 10:01:53
Anyone knows if you can fake the end of a mail adrees somehow? @[link removed]?
2025-02-21 10:02:11
how
2025-02-21 10:02:43
yeah if you change a character, but how not changing it?
2025-02-21 10:03:13
would have never said so... nigga
2025-02-21 10:05:36
No, thats why i asked
2025-02-21 10:06:14
I think it’s more likely that they stole an account that spoofed one
2025-02-21 10:16:08
Zyn lost so much fucking money
2025-02-21 10:28:14
Coindesk forced the guy probably, they know the article would have been visited a lot
2025-02-21 10:28:43
they are aware of all the hype around this thing, and this market too
2025-02-21 10:56:29
The shortest month of the year suddenly became the longest
2025-02-21 11:46:39
You really believe yeezy cfo sent an email to coindesk..
2025-02-21 11:49:17
The guy does not exist
2025-02-21 12:38:13
what is the time zone of reference for the drop?
2025-02-24 20:59:57
You must be crazy to bet against the pope, the guy literally haves god by his side smh
2025-02-25 08:52:50
Here we go again
2025-02-25 10:28:44
Hope none of the doctors likes to bet on this website
2025-02-26 18:01:57
https://x.com/stillgray/status/1894808248059895921?s=46
2025-02-26 18:02:47
“25% generally speaking… on cars and other things”; no blanket
2025-02-26 23:36:01
10milion!! It is very possible.
2025-02-27 00:13:16
Did they add the note after market creation?
2025-02-27 14:02:18
Bondin confirmed some docs including names will be released today Thursday 27th
2025-02-27 23:22:49
“Previously classified or unreleased document” do not need to contain “new” names of epstein associate, just names
2025-02-27 23:23:49
Already sold my yes at 80 tough, someone donate it to me at 22
2025-02-27 23:30:33
Are the flight logs in the dropbox yes or no
2025-02-27 23:34:03
I can read the rule thank you
2025-02-27 23:35:25
[link removed]
2025-02-27 23:43:20
My alpha is that i can’t believe they let retarted libs opinionist been photographed with folders of epstein case without even a single page of it being a previously classified doc
2025-02-27 23:48:21
Today, Attorney General Pamela Bondi, in conjunction with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), declassified and publicly released files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his sexual exploitation of over 250 underage girls at his homes in New York and Florida, among other locations. The first phase of declassified files largely contains documents that have been previously leaked but never released in a formal capacity by the U.S. Government.
2025-02-27 23:49:48
Flight logs are out
2025-02-27 23:50:34
“Largely contains” mean most of them. Not ALL of them. Rules apply
2025-02-27 23:53:42
It only need to be new, not to contain new names, just names
2025-02-27 23:54:09
Flight logs contains names
2025-02-27 23:55:11
Tell em guwop
2025-02-28 20:00:52
Wonder why it isn’t
2025-03-01 12:57:28
Will they change this title(?)
2025-03-02 14:22:52
Lot’s of different usaid initiatives have been defunded. “A qualifying action must clearly indicate an intent to reduce, restrict, or eliminate aid to Ukraine.”
2025-03-02 14:24:22
Plus the majority of military and financial aid was already approved by congress, so most likely there will be no new aid, but no reduction or elimination of the current
2025-03-02 18:15:13
It's not a word game. This market is about an executive action that has the clear aim at reducing ore eliminating aid to ukraine. If they are defunding usaid (for other political reason), and thus indirectly reducing employees or else in Ukraine, it does not count for the resolution of this market.
2025-03-02 18:16:43
If trump will interrupt current aid to ukraine, you will read it in the headlines, you'll not have to go see what usaid is doing.
2025-03-03 17:44:40
Title: before may; Rules: by 31 march; Market deadline timestamp: 31 dec 2025 smh
2025-03-03 19:58:07
Pope
2025-03-03 20:10:06
It amaze me how america first policy is basically going into political war with almost anyone
2025-03-03 20:10:35
but i gotta see to believe
2025-03-03 20:39:48
what isn't in this crazy times
2025-03-03 21:34:20
You must be 21 yo
2025-03-07 11:05:03
So any announcement that the us will purchase crypto in the future count?
2025-03-07 18:53:16
Yeah indeed sound too good to be true
2025-03-09 20:35:28
hey buddy! happy to see you on my side
2025-03-10 21:38:05
Is this market about car?
2025-03-11 16:53:12
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Portuguese legislative election is scheduled in March (?)
2025-03-11 17:25:50
they rejected the proposal to suspend the vote... what am i missing?
2025-03-11 18:03:14
If you think the government will lose the confidence vote buy "yes". Don't do the same mistake i did.
2025-03-11 18:10:30
For the vote to fail it means that parliaments does not give confidence to the gov, and thus the vote fails. So if they vote and confidence is removed by the parliament the market resolve “yes”.
2025-03-11 18:12:07
It "fails" from government perspective because the do not have parliament confidence anymore
2025-03-11 18:17:25
they fixed it
2025-03-12 01:39:09
yeah but 30% counted
2025-03-12 01:44:10
pornhub
2025-03-12 01:50:48
but where exactly?
2025-03-12 01:51:21
gov data shows they still lead by 5%
2025-03-12 01:54:10
Nuuk will be MASSIVE
2025-03-12 01:54:28
probably 60-70%
2025-03-12 01:57:46
lmao
2025-03-12 01:59:32
don't know really why tough. Kind of weird that odds for IA are higher than siumut at this point
2025-03-12 02:25:10
Do we agree that democracy is beautiful?
2025-03-12 14:03:02
The Department of homeland security has published the IFR on the federal register today, and it will be in effect april 11 https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/03/12/2025-03944/alien-registration-form-and-evidence-of-registration
2025-03-12 14:03:59
This IFR amends DHS regulations to designate a new registration form for aliens to comply with statutory alien registration and fingerprinting provisions. Aliens who are subject to alien registration requirements of the Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended (“INA”) who have not yet registered may use this registration form to satisfy their statutory obligations. This IFR also amends DHS regulations to designate additional documentation that may serve as evidence of alien registration.
2025-03-12 14:04:35
This rule would partially implement section 7 of Executive Order 14159, Protecting the American People Against Invasion (Jan. 20, 2025), 90 FR 8443 (Jan. 29, 2025). Section 7 directs the Secretary, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Attorney General, to take all appropriate action to: Immediately announce and publicize information about the legal obligation of all previously unregistered aliens in the United States to comply with the requirements of part VII ofsubchapter II of chapter 12 of title 8, U.S. Code (8 U.S.C. 1301-1306); Ensure that all previously unregistered aliens in the United States comply with8 U.S.C. 1301-1306; and Ensure that failure to comply with the legal obligations of8 U.S.C. 1301-1306 is treated as a civil and criminal enforcement priority.
2025-03-12 14:06:25
Following issuance of this Executive Order, DHS reviewed the registration regulations at 8 CFR part 264 and determined that it would be appropriate to designate a general registration form in addition to those already identified in the regulations. DHS believes that a general registration option may improve registration outcomes for certain groups of aliens. For instance, under current regulations, in general: Many Canadian nonimmigrants for business or pleasure are not issued a Form I-94 even though they have not been registered through the visa process.
2025-03-12 14:15:49
Everybody sleeping on this
2025-03-12 14:18:39
https://bocanewsnow.com/2025/03/10/canadians-in-florida-warned-you-must-register-and-be-fingerprinted/
2025-03-12 14:19:59
https://www.newsbreak.com/nepyork-288847545/3845855397405-dhs-introduces-new-alien-registration-form-for-up-to-3-2m-immigrants-5k-fine-or-6-months-in-jail-if-ignored
2025-03-12 14:20:21
This includes individuals who entered the U.S. without inspection, Canadian visitors who were not issued a Form I-94, and children who turn 14 years old and must register within 30 days of their birthday.
2025-03-12 14:30:04
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-2nd-term-live-updates-trump-defends-tariff?id=119625202&entryId=119673426
2025-03-12 14:35:29
Can we propose yet?
2025-03-12 19:52:26
~270 as of today
2025-03-12 20:48:55
this market did not resolve only because nobody has 750$ dollar to propose
2025-03-12 20:49:58
You are talking about official statement with a rule from the DHS published on the federal register smh
2025-03-12 20:56:42
Literally every provision of the market rule applies. I would have proposed this if 1) i had 750$ 2) ever proposed a market before, but unfortunately i lack this 2
2025-03-12 20:58:18
Exactly as Pkz, but i’m glad to buy all the shares i can until experienced whales arrives
2025-03-12 21:00:42
Unfortunately due to PM policy, it would also make little sense to post a 750$ bond for a 75$ bet, but this how this website work, and thats why whales rule this thing
2025-03-12 21:03:12
Even worse that the reward for the bond is 5$ lol
2025-03-12 23:50:22
Common sense took over
2025-03-13 08:17:41
Yes, it’s a yes
2025-03-13 09:27:19
But! But Elon said… :(
2025-03-13 22:53:08
You still betting on trump signing it before midnight tough
2025-03-13 22:55:18
Nah you right, federal register is just a website
2025-03-14 11:20:35
So trump will leave for mar a lago at 04:00 pm, how will he sign it before midnight?
2025-03-14 12:17:36
Yeah i don’t know if i’m missing something but at this point is almost irrelevant that shumer said he’ll find the vote. The point is will trump sign it? I don’t think so, and still there will be no shutdown, just like last time
2025-03-14 14:48:27
Pritzker urging a no vote on the CR
2025-03-14 14:55:01
Imaging betting on policy markets and being illiterate
2025-03-14 15:38:45
AI is not a source
2025-03-14 16:04:09
Lmao
2025-03-14 16:28:48
today will be 270-290 due to 5 day lag to new mexico and texas data
2025-03-14 16:29:38
real case probably around 300-330
2025-03-14 16:48:41
SHUT IT DOWN
2025-03-14 17:06:09
300 ! It came hotter than expected
2025-03-14 17:57:20
How can be clearer than this? https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2025/03/14/canadian-snowbirds-arizona-register-trump#
2025-03-14 17:57:59
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/us-require-canadians-country-longer-30-days-register/story?id=119715901
2025-03-14 18:02:09
JEFFRIES: "we are not afraid of a government funding showdown. And we will win that show down."
2025-03-14 22:56:45
Trump is in the air rn
2025-03-14 23:08:22
Do you understand that there will be no shutdown?
2025-03-14 23:08:44
Signing it today or tomorrow does not change anything
2025-03-14 23:13:01
How fast?
2025-03-14 23:15:47
I’m dying
2025-03-14 23:16:19
Trumps anything but principle dude lmao
2025-03-14 23:22:10
Punchbowl renovating the HQ soon
2025-03-15 08:56:54
We did it my friend
2025-03-15 16:07:18
Trump issued an EO yesterday at 10:44 pm… So why wouldn’t he sign the bill?
2025-03-15 16:07:56
[link removed]
2025-03-15 16:09:50
Yeah but if he bother issue a EO at 10:44 pm he might bother authorizing autopen for the bill no? I’m wrong?
2025-03-15 16:11:02
I rode this from 22 to 89, so i might ride it back if possible
2025-03-15 16:13:44
No he left white house at 4:00 pm, but regarding autopen: he is against an indiscriminate abuse.. but not against it, and if, like in this case, would avoid a technical shutdown i don’t see why he wouldn’t do so. Anyways at 4c is worth the risk, i sold yes at 89 because of this reason
2025-03-15 16:14:18
Yeah exactly is not impossible for the president of united states to have a bill delivered
2025-03-15 16:14:39
The fact that he issued an EO at 10:44 is a big red flag for me
2025-03-15 16:14:45
10:44 pm
2025-03-15 16:31:31
Yeah anyways what i’m saying is he def sign it either in palm beach or via autopen
2025-03-15 16:53:05
What is this drama with kickstand?
2025-03-16 14:05:18
Yeah i'm not crazy right?
2025-03-16 14:09:43
Escape made the master play...
2025-03-16 14:11:02
Basically they did not follow the judge order and hour ago there is visual confirmation of alien arriving to El salvador from the US. Crazy stuff
2025-03-16 14:21:25
Yeah but it think it's highly unlikely... I bought that one while shitting and didn't read the rule carefully
2025-03-16 20:26:37
Guwop please sell your kanye bet… i want to see you sticking around here
2025-03-17 21:36:23
Main problem is cost-efficiency here
2025-03-18 16:09:38
Trump said no redaction!
2025-03-18 21:14:03
Ozi i think that the main point here is that this market resolves only on the base of a formal agreement and is not 90% certain that we'll se one in the next 12 days
2025-03-18 21:25:34
Yeah i agree with you that it will most likely come in the next days, i'm talking about current odds
2025-03-18 22:08:02
He said many other things tough
2025-03-18 22:09:30
Not necessarily incorrect but the lack of effort they put in writing markets it’s incredibile
2025-03-18 22:48:25
No my bad, you are right, they just copy-pasted from the sea/air ceasefire market lmao. I hope they implement fees it will at least help motivate them a bit
2025-03-19 06:26:59
[link removed]
2025-03-19 08:33:04
A big spanish bank is keeping remuneration on check account at current deposit facility level until june
2025-03-19 12:34:53
Whatever thing they manage to hit in the next 12 days will make this market resolve yes. They already tried 4 times in the past 24 hours. Lest go Houthis !
2025-03-19 13:34:37
I hope Zelenskyy does not forget to say thank you during todays call
2025-03-19 13:46:36
phone call 10:00am ET [link removed]
2025-03-19 13:53:52
THANK GOD, we good
2025-03-19 14:00:08
Oh shit, don’t tell me is a zoom call…
2025-03-19 14:15:31
In wich universe zelensky will not agree exactly? The moment he agrees it will be pubblicy announced and mutually agreed by boths sides
2025-03-19 14:40:25
They talking now [link removed]
2025-03-19 15:14:08
US and Russian officials to meet in Riyadh in the coming days to agree on expanding ceasefire to caseation of hostilities and deal with technical contentions within this.
2025-03-19 15:14:18
[link removed]
2025-03-19 15:57:47
The call went good, trump said Zelenskyy is on track with him and witkoff is defending Putin for attacking Ukraine 10 minutes after the call with trump yesterday night. Updates will follow, is 11am in Washington.
2025-03-19 16:15:20
I really don’t see Zelenskyy taking away the “win” trump took from Putin yesterday. The tone of the truth post is more caution due to something big to be announced later rather than the phone call not bringing anything productive
2025-03-19 16:59:20
He will confirm tough
2025-03-19 17:27:58
She is not even talking about this market ceasefire, she's talking about trump request of a 30 days ceasfire
2025-03-19 17:40:33
We instructed our teams to resolve technical issues related to implementing and expanding the partial ceasefire. Ukrainian and American teams are ready to meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to continue coordinating steps toward peace. We instructed our advisors and representatives to carry out this work as quickly as possible.
2025-03-19 17:40:53
Idk i don't like this
2025-03-19 17:41:53
Looks like they did not agree on term yet, just on carrying on working on this
2025-03-19 17:43:47
He's not bro...
2025-03-19 17:45:34
Looks like the discussion on this will be carried on in Ryad, they accepted to carry on the work but a formal agreement on ceasefire terms is lacking. After this i don't think we'll see any development soon enough
2025-03-19 17:47:45
I guess a formal agreement comprehend the terms of this hypothetical ceasefire and despite both gov team working on this no agreement was reach yet. This market is about a formal agreement so this cannot resolve to yes yet... Unfortunately car is not scamming this time
2025-03-19 17:49:27
They say what happened, that both agreed on working about terms of this ceasefire
2025-03-19 17:50:24
[link removed]
2025-03-19 17:51:14
They even do not have a date for when meet in Ryad yet
2025-03-19 17:52:54
GG i believed in Yes
2025-03-19 19:36:45
"They agreed this could be the first step toward the full end of the war and ensuring security." [link removed]
2025-03-19 21:20:14
AP article about today: [link removed]
2025-03-19 21:41:00
Propose
2025-03-20 08:05:08
Someone could please tell me how the march 18 market resolve to yes if no EO was published on the WH website?
2025-03-20 08:44:07
It's not reported as an EO on white house website but as an executive action
2025-03-20 08:44:24
dunno why
2025-03-20 08:46:14
Lmao cause it's not... Also the memorandum on that website is reported an executive order, they'r both executive actions not orders...
2025-03-20 08:51:33
Wake people, according to rule only an executive order apply, since only congress can abolish it he can sign whatever today (proclamation, memorandum, actions)... This will resolve NO if it's anything but an EO
2025-03-20 08:52:38
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by March 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the U.S. Department of Education. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
2025-03-20 08:56:01
Go check WH website, all EOs have the title in uppercase
2025-03-20 08:56:34
If you want to be 100% sure then wait for a week and let's see if it ends up on the federal register
2025-03-20 08:58:03
how do we side bet?
2025-03-20 08:59:33
He said he would have signed 200 EO the first day, they were less than 40 EOs, the rest were actions. This market resolves on EO like the 20 jan market, indeed we all know what happened
2025-03-20 09:01:58
not to talk about "aims to eliminate or dismantle"
2025-03-20 09:03:59
The rules lmao
2025-03-20 09:06:31
We'll see
2025-03-20 09:12:38
GG https://apnews.com/article/guantanamo-pentagon-troops-immigrants-detainees-gitmo-trump-8c5219644999ce151c0d5f025c56c5bb
2025-03-20 09:16:03
Real money is in the march market
2025-03-20 09:18:18
People here not yet realising what others did in the Thursday market
2025-03-20 09:28:35
No way people fall for this
2025-03-20 10:05:16
Bruh everyone already saw it indeed, once the text of the order will come out, you’ll see
2025-03-20 10:05:45
Presidential schedule is out at 5am ET, you discovered hot water
2025-03-20 10:06:43
Like he shut down usaid?
2025-03-20 10:08:20
Yeah we’ll se how dismantle it will be interpreted here
2025-03-20 10:09:17
He will orders for starting work on how to change te department, they will have no effect on it
2025-03-20 10:09:29
He cannot through an EO
2025-03-20 10:10:16
Aims mean that the purpose is to have those effect, but if the purpose is to set deadlines for working groups, good luck
2025-03-20 10:10:58
You are right, but he is careful on taking the right steps for what he really wants
2025-03-20 10:11:26
Anyways, is a bet, we’ll see once the text is out, i smell rule cucking
2025-03-20 10:11:48
And with good reason, he cannot do anything without congress
2025-03-20 10:12:22
You’ll explain this to uma
2025-03-20 10:13:53
The rules clearly says an EO that aims at dismantle the department, if there is no provision for it, but only for taking the necessary step to achieve so, NO wins
2025-03-20 10:14:41
Only an EO that will be annulled 5 min later will apply to market rules, and i’m betting NO on that
2025-03-20 10:27:29
Did the bitcoin reserve EO created a bitcoin reserve? no. Was the aim of the EO? no. The aim of the EO is the results they want to achieve through the order. If trump order to provide docs, research, plans and deadlines necessary to dismantle it, the aim of the EO is not to dismantle it, let alone to eliminate since is a Senate prerogative. Anything else will be stoped by a judge, and i’m betting that this EO will be aimed at taking the legal necessary step to achieve Trump willing, that is to end the department, but will not ELIMINATE or DISMANTLE the department.
2025-03-20 10:30:58
bro law is not about intention is about effects. I might be wrong the bet itself but i'm not wrong on how to interpret law or reality. The aim of a law is the effect you want to achieve through it. If the EO is about taking legal necessary step to be able to eliminate or dismantle the department in the future, the effect of the order is not to eliminate or dismantle the department, because otherwise will be instantly blocked by court
2025-03-20 10:33:25
Aim is not the long-term auspicabile effect you want to achieve in future, is the real effect you want to achieve through legislation
2025-03-20 10:35:39
Reporting this for arguing porpuse: Did the bitcoin reserve EO created a bitcoin reserve? no. Was the aim of the EO? no. The aim of the EO is the results they want to achieve through the order. If trump order to provide docs, research, plans and deadlines necessary to dismantle it, the aim of the EO is not to dismantle it, let alone to eliminate since is a Senate prerogative. Anything else will be stoped by a judge, and i’m betting that this EO will be aimed at taking the legal necessary step to achieve Trump willing, that is to end the department, but will not ELIMINATE or DISMANTLE the department.
2025-03-20 10:46:18
I'm not adding them, Reuters reported: The order directs Education Secretary Linda McMahon to "take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure (of) the Department of Education and return education authority to the States, while continuing to ensure the effective and uninterrupted delivery of services, programs, and benefits on which Americans rely."
2025-03-20 10:47:35
You see the logic and legal difference here of taking steps to reach a goal and taking direct actions. Trump cannot legally do anything. Anyways it will be only speculation until the EO comes out. This my view
2025-03-20 16:32:39
Is there an official date for when they will meet in Riyadh?
2025-03-20 17:35:07
Korean politics is one of the most unpredictable shit ever
2025-03-20 20:18:50
GG :(
2025-03-20 23:31:05
SWEET LORD PLEASE HAVE MERCY
2025-03-20 23:35:32
That’s spread, if you want to sell your no’s they go around 15c at the moment, and that’s only because there is not official confirmation that any of those migrants was brought to gitmo under the alien enemy act yet. Wouldn’t gamble on that on tough if i was in you
2025-03-20 23:37:10
Nothings happen came back from a HUGE, BEAUTIFUL drawdown
2025-03-20 23:43:47
Bro props on you for not selling, really
2025-03-20 23:46:17
You even bought 3h before the NYT article, wtf did you know dude
2025-03-21 06:09:46
Se they were not brought to gitmo? Lol
2025-03-21 13:43:47
yeah i saw now the flight details. But did you hold all this time because of the court hearing doc saying that the removal to gitmo was initiated? Or were you hoping on an actual transfer of illegals to guantanamo?
2025-03-21 13:44:30
Cause the doc you linked is from 5 days ago? did you know all along that it could have resolved yes?
2025-03-21 16:33:27
May happen
2025-03-21 16:46:48
Rumors circulating about the russian behind this
2025-03-21 20:51:20
This is what -14k makes to you I guess
2025-03-22 19:43:16
FREE MY MAN
2025-03-23 19:17:35
50% looks reasonable with negotiations coming this week
2025-03-24 11:51:03
They will not leave this negotiation with at least securing what they have already agreed on.
2025-03-24 14:10:25
Should have been 50% before negotiations, now it should be more than likely. Around 65% yes
2025-03-24 16:42:19
At this point i see no hope for any kind of official agreement to come out of this talks today
2025-03-24 16:53:32
The point is that unofficially this ceasefire is in place, all the negotiations carried on today aims at reaching a broader ceasefire using what they've agreed so far as a starting point. The talks today has been primarily focused on discussing the technical details for this broader agreement. What I hoped tough, was that some kind of official statement would have come from today meeting regarding the power-plants. But at this point is clear that the negotiations will be long, and no official agreement will be reached this week. And even tough the power-plants ceasefire is somehow in place, the resolution criteria for this market is lacking.
2025-03-24 16:58:23
I say that i don't expect this meeting to provide us what we need to resolve this market to yes
2025-03-24 17:25:26
hhahhaah lmao bro you switched 4 times like me... this is not about sides is about pure geopolitical alpha!
2025-03-24 20:07:56
Anyone can make mistakes... None of you ever added the celebrated to whatsapp gift group?
2025-03-24 20:21:43
cmon dance bruh
2025-03-24 20:34:11
bro do you think donald trump will publicly dance before april?
2025-03-24 20:36:26
I'm starting to think that the only purpose of this markets is to be memed on X. No volume, No real necessity, is this PM main marketing campaign?
2025-03-24 20:38:25
Bro i'm the only one I should not betray. You did not answer my question tough...
2025-03-25 18:05:34
please make yes 8c
2025-03-25 18:06:27
ops no i mean
2025-03-25 19:10:50
Only US sanctions apply, the sanctions on agricultural goods are imposed by european countries.
2025-03-25 19:17:42
They'll immediately start pressuring EU to lift some sanctions, but i don't see an executive order lifting US sanctions on Russia, or better not at a 67% probability in the next 6 days
2025-03-25 19:20:19
Reuters: The Kremlin said the Black Sea agreements would not come into effect unless links between some Russian banks and the international financial system were restored. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this was untrue, and there was no requirement of sanctions relief for the deals to come into force.
2025-03-25 19:21:50
This is a small step in the negotiations and you think the US will lift any sanction in the next 6 days giving away the bargaining power they have? It's not impossible ofc, but 67%?
2025-03-25 19:25:11
Zelenskiy said the truce agreements would take effect immediately, and that if Russia violated them he would ask Trump to impose additional sanctions on Moscow and provide more weapons for Ukraine.
2025-03-25 19:28:31
The WH statement is about a proactive role from the US to push EU states to lift some sanctions on Russia. If you think that Trump will most likely lift sanctions on Russia in the next 6 days yall on crack
2025-03-25 19:35:42
"The U.S. agreement with Russia goes further than the agreement with Ukraine, with Washington committing to help seek the lifting of international sanctions on Russian agriculture and fertiliser exports, long a persistent Russian demand."
2025-03-25 19:36:40
Just read the article you dumb mf
2025-03-25 19:52:20
Lmao you panic sold.. thats what happens when you copy paste urls and avoid reading them
2025-03-25 19:53:32
Please proceed restoring order in this market
2025-03-25 19:57:46
Yeah it can be whatever sanction, how much do you price the probability of any sanction being lift in the next 6 days
2025-03-25 20:00:35
https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1904611774881816999
2025-03-25 20:02:28
This market is about presidential actions or executive orders not words
2025-03-25 20:03:54
"Russia wants vast amounts of sanctions lifted on its banks involved in the agricultural sector and readmission to the international SWIFT banking system before an agreement with Kyiv comes into effect." telegraph
2025-03-25 20:05:49
lmao is crazy that you cannot link things with the real word out there and you are here trading prediction markets
2025-03-25 20:12:00
Apparently it was not, and now trump says that they will look into Russia's request. Not even a day and Russia is already changing term of the deals.. Do you think US will just abide?
2025-03-25 20:12:51
And for the rules of this market, do you think they'll please Putin swiftly in the next 6 days?
2025-03-25 20:18:51
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sabiha: We did not agree to the lifting of sanctions on Russia as part of the ceasefire agreements in the Black Sea
2025-03-25 20:34:28
Nor US or Ukraine recognised the lift of sanctions as part of the deal or worse as a precondition for the ceasefire. Now the question is will US please Putins requests before 31 march?
2025-03-25 21:10:02
Addressing Risks from Jenner & Block 27th EO signed this month, only 3 to go
2025-03-25 21:29:34
lovely
2025-03-26 16:17:14
Executive Grant of Clemency for Devon Archer 28th ! 2 more to go
2025-03-26 19:11:00
give it 2 days
2025-03-26 19:56:08
dollars at 30c?
2025-03-26 20:41:52
He will cancel
2025-03-27 17:47:42
It is extraterritorial as it it is a US military base, don’t know how this market consider this factor. You never know with UMA tough..
2025-03-27 17:49:36
“ For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland”. A US military base will count as Greenland terrestrial territory? Mhhh
2025-03-27 22:18:36
Anyone knows what the hell did he signed?
2025-03-27 22:32:16
We good?
2025-03-27 22:33:41
Are those all EOs or memoranda and proclamation too? Sorry i cannot check on other sources and WH website is not up to date
2025-03-27 22:55:37
Lmao we good then
2025-03-28 14:42:54
Told ya
2025-03-28 15:23:54
My dad works at wall street. I was so damn sure that i bet a huge 7$ on this
2025-03-28 17:35:44
Little rally almost all canceled, extreme fear is the way
2025-03-29 17:27:48
It's unlikely but it's not impossible that Hamas accepts israel counter offer for the ceasfire by Sunday. I haven't seen details but from my understanding is the release of 10 instead of 5 hostages for the 50days ceasefire.
2025-03-29 17:28:41
Since they already agreed to the Egyptian plan of 5 i don't see the counteroffer as so unfeasible
2025-03-29 17:32:13
Anyone can confirm that the israeli counter offer consist only on 5 hostages more for the 50 days ceasefire?
2025-03-29 17:37:16
yeah 5 more than what Hamas already agreed to, IDK why people think this is almost impossible
2025-03-29 18:05:41
[link removed]
2025-03-29 18:07:46
Basically it's enough for hamas to agree this before Eid and if Israel does not fuck it up this will resolve to yes, if i'm not missing anything here
2025-03-29 18:10:14
They want the hostage back due to internal political pressure so i don't think anything unacceptable was added
2025-03-29 18:10:41
What's the counter offer according to you then?
2025-03-29 18:22:09
30% looks reasonable here
2025-03-29 18:24:46
Exactly... I don't see your point here Denizz, a counter offer was made. You might think that if Hamas rejects it, then they be willing to accept 5 (and I don't think so honestly) but in any case, if an agreement is found before march 31, it will likely be because hamas accept to release 10
2025-03-29 18:32:09
You must have negative PNL to think that is smart to buy something fair priced instead of something undervalued. But i think that your order will be filled sooner or later
2025-03-29 19:09:01
They receive news trough goat deliveries
2025-03-29 19:14:40
Looks like his statement is about the egyptian proposal to establish a committee to manage the Gaza Strip. So nothing to do with the amount of hostages to be released. I can't find the original video of the statement tough
2025-03-29 19:21:24
Money talks, but let's see how bibi will deal with this. The internal political pressure for the release of hostages is high, and Al-hayya just publicly announced that they agreed to release 5 of them so if bibi reject this it will cause major turmoil in israel.
2025-03-29 19:33:37
There is a slight chance that the only change in the israeli counter offer is on the amount of hostages to exchange, 10 instead of 5. If so, a deal before Monday is still possible
2025-03-29 19:37:59
He still have to mind external factors tough. Politics is made both of preferences and constraints
2025-03-29 19:41:59
Most important the disagreement so far seems to be only on the number of hostages and not to other part of the Egyptian deal. So nothing really changed after Al-Hayya statement despite the harsh tones on the group disarmament
2025-03-29 19:43:25
Sure, i do not disagree with that, just painting the broader picture. But still, only info about the counter offer is number of hostages.
2025-03-30 09:04:49
Let them have fun
2025-03-31 10:45:14
yep -5% pre market
2025-03-31 10:48:52
Are we delusional or someone decided to burn several thousands here?
2025-03-31 11:10:14
There is a 3k order at 70c no for tariff on France. But ofc tariff will be announced (or not) on EU
2025-03-31 13:04:18
They update at market closure
2025-03-31 13:46:19
It looks like you already been in the past
2025-03-31 14:00:04
GG
2025-03-31 15:18:54
We know how this works buddy
2025-03-31 15:20:51
No argument is that they currently are in a platonic relation, problem is we all are in a platonic relation with her (except no holders) so that doesn’t count.
2025-03-31 15:22:17
Bruh you need to understand how resolution of market works
2025-03-31 15:45:20
Pakistani reporting it, GG https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/03/31/sydney-sweeney-spotted-with-glen-powell-just-days-after-split-with-fiance-jonathan-davino/
2025-03-31 16:22:19
Wa already tried explaining it to him sir
2025-03-31 20:42:24
AI ruined what was left from their human brain
2025-03-31 21:45:11
Lol
2025-03-31 22:04:46
Turns out the pakistani were right eheheh
2025-03-31 22:05:57
Ok looser
2025-04-01 06:38:41
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/video-shows-duterte-2022-not-060627637.html
2025-04-01 06:39:59
Bro’s going nowhere before september 2025. Most likely not even after that
2025-04-01 09:35:55
Will trump lift russian sanction before may?
2025-04-01 16:26:12
Someone could explain me why this guy should talk for 24h straight? And what the hell he is talking about
2025-04-01 17:30:03
That market was about a formal agreement of a ceasefire and the rules did not require for it to come in effect. This is about whether it takes effect or not
2025-04-01 18:42:25
Crazy
2025-04-01 19:17:50
There was. I don’t know you understanding of this kind of stuff, but you can go and check Institute for the Study of War
2025-04-01 19:25:50
This is literally the most retarted thing he can do and still there is a good chance of this happenig
2025-04-01 19:50:49
You may like to do a google search… you may find other probabilities
2025-04-02 07:04:02
That he must be the craziest son of beach to think that is a good idea
2025-04-02 07:05:29
Indefinitely delayed wow
2025-04-02 07:56:49
Nope
2025-04-02 11:07:06
It’s not arbitrary. When the agreement was made, Russia came out from the negotiations asking for sanction to be lifted for the ceasefire to come in effect. If that happens, or if they change their mind, it will be reported.
2025-04-02 21:05:12
Damn he really was that retarded
2025-04-02 23:04:19
Cope
2025-04-03 10:43:41
Ok
2025-04-05 10:35:23
Increase a 54% tariff? Lol
2025-04-06 09:28:08
So according to everybody here they’ll reach no deal to return hostages before may? Even tough israeli stated that their goal is to do so before passover
2025-04-06 21:14:53
Yes probably happening
2025-04-07 09:00:34
Lmao the rules says “countries”. The plural is there for a reason. Revoking visas from south sudan is not imposing a “travel ban”. Sunday night scam i guess
2025-04-08 18:04:44
A crazy world we live in
2025-04-10 16:55:30
It's because they clarified that it was on top of the old 20% justified by fentanyl
2025-04-10 16:55:41
125+20
2025-04-10 17:01:16
No they did not announce new tariff, they clarified the context of what they announced yesterday
2025-04-10 17:02:46
No new announcement of lowering or raising tariff was made. Yesterday they said that the tariff will now total a 125% and they recently clarified that that's on top of the old 20% tariff, hence 145%. No new announcement about tariff change was made.
2025-04-10 17:15:42
No i rather tell the truth and don't let retarted shape a distorted version of facts and possibly resolve the market
2025-04-10 17:19:50
I honestly very skeptical of the resolution system here. On sunday night they fucked me up on the travel ban market because they resolved on yes on the only fact that a ban on south sudan was imposed. The rules stated the ban should have been on countrieS, plural. None disputed the shit. Aescrew ofc was an holder
2025-04-11 11:56:50
avg weekly cases has been 75 for the last 2 months and the spreading is significantly decreasing in Texas. I don't see this hitting 1k by the next 3 updates... will have a better clue later today, anything lower than 130-50 is tragedy for yes holders.
2025-04-11 12:06:17
This shit is never ending omg
2025-04-11 12:07:04
cheesefire
2025-04-11 12:35:43
They promised to the families that they’ll be home by Passover
2025-04-11 12:46:46
Yes but majority of cases are in Texas (65%) and the contagion is slowing down significantly there
2025-04-11 13:44:58
can't find any source about statement of sever undercounting... maybe you are referring to the fact that only confirmed case are counted but it has been like this since january
2025-04-11 16:02:00
Told ya
2025-04-11 18:11:48
[link removed]
2025-04-11 18:26:43
Cheesefire
2025-04-11 19:56:34
They need to get hostages out, they’ll find a compromise
2025-04-11 22:42:40
There is a big trauma in this community
2025-04-13 10:02:23
Cheesefire
2025-04-13 15:11:50
Hamas must accept a truce, israel must bring back some hostages, based on this they’ll find a compromise. I think there is too much skepticism here and i don’t see them coming out of negotiations with nothing in their hands
2025-04-13 15:15:18
Yeah it does
2025-04-13 17:00:44
Negotiations has been on since end of march and they need to hurry to bring back the hostages so i don’t think that 16 days is an unrealistic amount of time. An agreement could be reached even this Monday since hamas delegation was sent to Cairo. Anyways the latest news are optimistic on a deal breakthrough, i don’t understand why this market is not
2025-04-13 17:01:02
Wtf
2025-04-13 21:46:16
[link removed]
2025-04-13 23:08:00
Haaretz, the Hebrew-language newspaper, reports that a long-term truce between Hamas and Israel is closer than ever, with an official announcement expected within 48 hours, following both parties’ agreement to the latest proposal.
2025-04-13 23:23:48
Couldn’t access the article because of paywall. Multiple sources reporting it on X tough [link removed]
2025-04-13 23:41:05
I took the first tweet, they are basically reporting the Haaretz article… Do you like this one more? [link removed]
2025-04-13 23:43:49
Can’t find the link and i can’t search it on the website due to paywall… Looks like everybody is reporting this but no one is linking the actual article
2025-04-13 23:51:47
Go check haaretz live updates it might be there. I’m having an hard time with the website
2025-04-14 10:13:17
[link removed] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the parents of hostage Eitan Mor that the government is working on a deal that would see 10 of the remaining captives released, according to the Tikva Forum.
2025-04-14 10:17:02
Hamas is changing their hard position on an idf withdraw in exchange for 45 days ceasefire and prisoner swap. Under assurance from the US they likely agree to the release of 10 hostage in exchange of resumption of Aid and 45 days ceasefire. Talks about ending of the war will be postponed to a second stage of the deal.
2025-04-14 13:18:41
This is an information market and i adjust my risk exposure based on the information i get, is not about glory here but about money. I hoped to see better news this morning but Hamas asked for more time to answer the last Israeli proposal. Reducing my position 25% does not mean that i do not believe what i stated above. I indeed think that both parties at this point have incentive to reach a deal and will thus delay the issue of demilitarisation of Hamas and a full withdraw of IDF. I might be wrong tough and you can be it too. Again is not about glory is about information, I trade what i see and i see relative good news emerging from the negotiations. If i see more i’ll buy more, if see less i might sell more. People here like to marry position and that will bring you to capitulation.
2025-04-14 13:36:32
You lick frogs i guess
2025-04-14 13:59:33
Are you the old [link removed] with -2,7k pnl?
2025-04-14 14:03:18
Omg you are blacksun... now I see
2025-04-14 20:10:05
Most likely money already lost but i cannot believe they will just do nothing for this man.
2025-04-15 01:28:45
Elaborate please
2025-04-15 12:07:56
[link removed]
2025-04-15 16:50:33
If I remember correctly you were one of the few on the 700 market saying that in spring cases would have slow down. I was questioning why you switched your view from a No +700 to yes +1000
2025-04-16 11:02:35
For real
2025-04-16 18:45:03
You must be israeli or american to believe this kind of bs
2025-04-16 19:06:59
double-citizenship i guess
2025-04-17 09:50:33
It was priced fairly cheap tough
2025-04-17 18:57:22
Those audit are in cost of like 20k lmao. Gena got me too at the beginning
2025-04-17 18:57:34
About costs*
2025-04-17 19:00:52
Bro you made good money, you dumped on me too. But let’s be serious. Those audit have been made even before trump took office, go check it
2025-04-17 19:01:19
And even on amounts o 0 usd. And up to money spent on dec22
2025-04-17 19:02:12
Bro they have been public for months
2025-04-17 19:04:22
Bro there many different audit like the ones you posted, they go back even to before trump took office.
2025-04-17 19:04:29
Stop scamming
2025-04-17 19:10:20
Those “audits” have been published even in february and january 2025… and gena want you to believe that he is a genius that only noticed now
2025-04-17 19:10:37
Maximum cost audited 20k lol
2025-04-17 19:12:32
And he such a genius he was dumping most of the shares at 23c
2025-04-17 19:15:24
Bro you are not retarded please
2025-04-17 19:15:45
You managed to dump 1,3k shares at 23 cent. Be happy
2025-04-17 19:21:32
Go find a job
2025-04-17 20:30:08
Bro do a favor to yourself. The market was created 19 february and before and after that day USAID has been posting audit on contractors. Why do you think the market was not solved before? Everybody is retarted except you?
2025-04-17 20:32:52
[link removed] This was pubblished february 21, 2 days after market creation... why didn't they resolve it before? I have to admit you were smart on posting the files without the whole directory. I bought 200 of your shares at 23c by impulse after reading the file. You made your little scam now stop yapping about audits on Ukraine aid that do not exist.
2025-04-17 20:37:09
You didn’t even looked the directory lmao, ok my bad you are indeed retarted
2025-04-17 20:49:08
You are right sorry... I haven't took my pills today
2025-04-18 11:14:17
So now grammar is your next victim
2025-04-18 13:22:42
I smell ~50 next update
2025-04-18 13:28:07
[link removed]
2025-04-18 13:29:42
The court has to formally hold the administration in contempt, and it will not happen before may
2025-04-18 15:53:56
Is in the rules
2025-04-18 15:57:02
“Boasberg, who is the chief judge of the federal trial-level court in DC, outlined the next steps in the contempt proceeding, since it is not proven yet beyond a reasonable doubt that the administration committed criminal contempt.” this is from the cnn article i linked. They’ll have to call testimonies before proceedings
2025-04-18 15:58:10
Follows: “Boasberg says he wants sworn statements first from people who can attest to the officials making the decisions not to turn the planes around as they carried migrants to El Salvador on March 15. Then, Boasberg says, if those statements aren’t satisfactory to him, he will ask for live witnesses to testify at hearings or depositions. The judge could then, he says, ask the Justice Department to prosecute Trump administration officials, or he could appoint an attorney as a special prosecutor.”
2025-04-18 16:19:31
88
2025-04-19 15:38:28
The “crocodile tears” scam; an essay on why this is crayon eater bullshit:
2025-04-19 15:39:17
This market was created the 19 of February 2025 during the highest period of friction between the US and the Ukrainian government. During that period we have seen many US statesmen, and public figures like Elon Musk, calling for an extensive audit of the 175 billions of dollars sent to Ukraine since the invasion of Ukraine. The fact that those 175 billions were sent after the invasion (24feb2022) is an important point to defund the crying crocodile argument. Here some link to what the public discussion was about 1,5 month ago: [link removed] [link removed] [link removed] Senators, Musk, Patel (FBI director), were all asking for a formal and official audit of those 175 billion dollars of foreign aid, and since this was big deal in feb-march current affairs, PM created this market. Of course the spirit of the market was to determine if “A qualifying audit/investigation … specifically directed at U.S. foreign aid sent to Ukraine” would have been initiated after the market creation date (19feb2025).
2025-04-19 15:40:59
Now let’s debunk the crying crocodile resolutions sources. The USAID audits: The office of inspector general of USAID has been publishing since 15jan2025 audits on Ukraine response program. As of today 15 different audit have been published on [link removed] website. This audits are carried by USAID and sometimes by third party auditors to determine the quality of the assistance provided by contractor that won USAID grants, this is standard monitoring procedure carried on by the agency to determine if contractors are using funds in a legitimate way. 5 different audits of this kind have been published 2 days after market creation, with no impact on the price and no news outlet reporting about it. This is because these audits are far from being what US government was requiring to be carried, and far from auditing the 175 billion dollars disbursed, and this for many reason.
2025-04-19 15:43:18
First, They are as we already said standard audit carried on by USAID to monitor grant awardees.
2025-04-19 15:51:37
Second, The reference period of the funds was from Jan 1 2018 to Dec 31 2022, and that’s because this is the reference period for implementation of the projects. Note that the first bill granting foreign assistance to ukraine was passed by the congress on Mar2022, making it impossible for this project to be funded by those bills, since they were already intitiated and funded in 2018 [link removed]
2025-04-19 15:51:48
Third, nobody fucking care how Ukraine Helsinki Human Rights Union spent their 4 milions dollars of grants for a project that was funded in 2018 [link removed]
2025-04-19 15:51:58
This was of public domain on 21feb2025 and discoverable trough a simple google search. Of course nobody was that retarted to use this bs to argument a YES resolution.
2025-04-19 15:52:43
Now let’s dig into the other bullshit links spread by Gena; The State Department “ongoing work” link contains multiple reports, inspection and audit projects carried on by the office of inspector general. The only “audit” initiated after 19feb2025 is the “Audit of Department of State Efforts to Support War Crimes Accountability in Ukraine” and it’s purpose is to “determine whether the Department's assistance to support war crimes accountability in Ukraine is achieving stated goals and objectives.” [link removed]
2025-04-19 15:53:25
“To determine whether the Department” is key point here, the audit is not directed at legitimacy of costs, but if the Department of states programme, about accountability of war crimes, has reached or not its goals and objectives. In few words, is an internal audit of the State Department use of funds and resources and has nothing to do whit a fraudulent use of Ukraine assistance funds. It continues “OIG will determine to what extent the Department has designed and monitored war crimes accountability awards in accordance with Department requirements and to achieve stated objectives”.
2025-04-19 15:54:09
Has we have been able to appreciate, relations between Ukraine and US administration has improved over the last week, with the last info being about a possible ceasefire and imminent mineral deals. Even from a international relation perspective, the US has no interest in auditing a possible fraudulent use of Ukraine assistance funds, at least for now, and most likely until april 30. Market rules are clear: “A qualifying audit/investigation must be specifically directed at U.S. foreign aid sent to Ukraine. General audits of the Department of Defense or State Department will not alone qualify; The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.” There will never be consensus of credible reporting on an official audit on Ukraine assistance because there has never been such a thing. Our crocodile friend used some general D. of state and Usaid internal audits and decided that everybody was dumb to have not noticed before and he’s was instead a genius. But he is no genius, he is a scammer. He bought 3k of shares at an average 8c and dumped most of it at 25 and 40, and most of them were bought by his dumb friend “cat3xcat3x”.
2025-04-19 15:57:22
You still have the possibility to dump on your friend at 26c, be quick
2025-04-19 16:26:12
"A qualifying audit/investigation must be specifically directed at U.S. foreign aid sent to Ukraine. General audits of the Department of Defense or State Department will not alone qualify." None of the so called audits provided by your friend apply to this.
2025-04-19 16:26:54
And therefore "consensus of credible reporting" do not exist about this.
2025-04-19 16:28:01
If a qualifying audit would have been initiated, news outlets would have been reporting this, but since these audits are on project initiated before the ukraine funding bills, they are not relevant for the context of this market
2025-04-19 16:30:07
You used general audits on goals and objectives monitoring to try building an argument that the US gov is auditing 175 billions of dollars sent to Ukraine. And that is silly, just to not be more rude.
2025-04-19 16:30:52
He already dumped 2k on him
2025-04-19 16:32:32
and that's one case, the USAID one is even dumber. Those are general audit carried on for each assistance programme USAID carry, there are for Africa, Gaza and Ukraine. They audit 2018-22 projects that were prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
2025-04-19 16:34:55
Have been made since january, and even on Feb 21, 2 days after this market was created. They were easily discoverable and of public domain. Nobody considered them, because at the time it was clear what the market intention was. Now that time has passed, you are trying to use it to manipulate outcome. But they still are specific grants awardees audits for project implemented between 2018-22
2025-04-19 16:39:50
I don't need to repeat what i wrote above about those 2 audits
2025-04-19 16:52:36
Bro you took whatever link you could find about "ukraine" and "audit" and trying to scam people that the federal government has initiated an audit on the 175billions dollar sent to Ukraine. You haven't even looked at the directory 2 days ago and didn't now that those usaid audit are standard audit carried on by the agency, with multiples published in 2025 and same for the department of state. You are dumb, ignorant, fraudulent and soon poorer if you don't sell your share. Plus it's even impossible to believe you are in good faith. You bought 3k at 6c cent, dumped 70% of it at 23c and denying what market intention was at the time of creation citing pdf you haven't even read.
2025-04-19 16:54:20
If such a thing was ever initiated, articles would be flowing, and that's because it would be in harsh contrast with current US-Ukraine relations. In fact, such an audit was never initiated.
2025-04-19 16:55:36
Once your friend 4k wall will be eroded, you'll have nothing left
2025-04-19 17:36:16
[link removed] More context of why market was created
2025-04-19 18:21:26
You might wanna google what exponential mean
2025-04-19 19:04:56
"OIG’s objective for this audit is to determine whether the Department's assistance to support war crimes accountability in Ukraine is achieving stated goals and objectives." from the file i linked
2025-04-19 19:09:13
Even the title is "Audit of Department of State Efforts..." you must be illiterate do not grasp the difference
2025-04-19 19:19:39
[link removed] Our friend Gena on the IRS audit market... If you cannot beat them join them i guess. Would be smart to delete old comments tough
2025-04-19 19:24:12
Lmao read it again "determine to what extent the Department has designed and monitored war crimes accountability awards" does this equal to an audit on Ukraine foreign aid? The title is will trump audit foreign aid. It is not "will the OIG of state department audit if they designed and monitored war crimes accountability awards as they have should. Do you understand this are standard auditing for federal agencies and is not a special audit on Ukraine aid ?
2025-04-19 19:26:38
Literally no one will tell you that the US has audited ukraine aid. Nobody. Go on twitter and check how many trumptards are still asking for them to do so... Go tell them that in reality the Trump administration have done so by OIG internally auditing a war crime accountability programmes. Literally the degeneracy on this platform is at an ATH
2025-04-19 19:27:56
The fact that the word "audit" is on those doc is literally the only thing you read about those docs
2025-04-19 19:28:48
And you keep selling at 40c... good boy
2025-04-19 19:38:06
For last time. This is standard federal agencies internal monitoring work. This is not an investigation on the 175 billion dollars granted by congress as trump was threatening end o February. You can keep trusting Gena, too bad he is keep selling at 40c, but feel free to buy his shares.
2025-04-19 19:40:48
Just buy more bro
2025-04-20 09:50:57
What a clown
2025-04-20 10:01:46
Cat3 learned a very expensive lesson these days
2025-04-20 12:21:27
He made 1k (40%) of his pnl scamming idiots like cat3. Poor dude was already down several thousands, now he has literally burnt his portfolio.
2025-04-20 13:35:34
Good morning and happy easter
2025-04-20 23:53:59
Lmao
2025-04-21 13:06:49
General audits of the Department of Defense or State Department will not alone qualify.
2025-04-21 13:09:52
Yall will kill this website in the long run if you keep subverting shit. This bet was created end of february because trump adm and musk were threatening to audit aid sent trough congress post 2022 invasion. None of the posted audit are about this.
2025-04-21 13:10:58
If you keep resolving markets based on the most minimal and irrelevant bullshit PM will have no more reason to exist except letting you people take advantage of this system
2025-04-21 13:23:50
This kind of shit has always happened but the amount of instances this last mont has been crazy
2025-04-21 13:28:20
Is an internal audit on a program of the department of state, hopefully you have read the docs
2025-04-21 13:29:08
I know you are a smart person, so most likely you are in bad faith here
2025-04-21 13:29:57
Yeah is half PM fault and half scammers, i agree
2025-04-21 13:33:27
Bro you have a higher degree of education. Please
2025-04-21 13:40:10
Here is no different, the only difference is a link that says “ukraine” and “audit” in the same period
2025-04-21 13:40:37
Exactly
2025-04-21 13:52:31
Exactly
2025-04-21 13:52:44
This is completely irrelevant
2025-04-21 14:05:02
I do not care about this market specifically, I have 1:15 of my capital here and I can afford to lose it. The only thing i care is to polymarket to develop as a succesful and fair platform for every trader, from the most retarded to the smarter one to trade on equal basis. Like this is a scammer casino, and players will stop coming, sooner or later
2025-04-21 14:29:31
You argument would have been ridiculously dismissed straight away if it would have been made end of feb. Unfortunately now people forgot what this market was about, and only PM ass written rules remain
2025-04-21 16:01:49
The fact that they decided to intervene regardless of a clarification being issued is at least a sign of monitoring the platform
2025-04-21 20:04:09
Yeah hopefully they’ll stop your shenanigans
2025-04-21 20:09:50
Yeah a clarification that brings back original spirit of the market would be enough to stop this nonsense. It would not be bad, whats bad is that the rules has not been written in a clearer way before, especially for a market that had a 70 days timeframe. But despite this, you know exactly what this bet was about, and decided to bet on the most mischievous and least credible outcome. So the problem is that PM rules are poorly written, but a far worse problem is this rigged resolution system that favors marginal resolution sources due to a lack of third party monitoring.
2025-04-21 20:14:14
Like resolving the travel ban market that specifically required multiple countries ban. But since you decided to resolve on Sunday night nobody intervened
2025-04-21 20:22:06
Due research is your job since you decided to put money in this market, I linked various sources about what was the situation when this market was created, and evidently current resolution sources have nothing to do with. Regarding poor rules, yes, its a PM problem
2025-04-21 21:03:43
Ozy you knew exactly what this was about
2025-04-21 21:05:08
Finally a precedent of a well handled situation by Polymarket. Hopefully more clearer rules will follow in the future. To anyone who made bet last minute on yes trying to take advantage of this, shame on you.
2025-04-21 21:10:54
What upset me the most is that i've seen many smart traders here betting on yes trying to take advantage of this unsupervised system that knew perfectly what they were doing. Traders with tens of thousand of pnl profit that would kill this platform only to get few more thousands. I hope that polymarket will invest more energy in developing more sophisticated ruleset and to supervise every market proposal
2025-04-21 21:23:57
Polymarket is a place that let's you bet on political event. The event in question was if the trump administration would have began an investigation on the money sent Ukraine. The unfortunately poor written rules apply in the context of what i've written before. So yes rules matter, in the context of the spirit of the market, if they would have been written better none of this would have never happened and this market would have stick to 4c yes. Yall can thank Gena for letting you dream that the US has started an investigation on Ukraine aid, 2 days after signing the MOU about mineral deal
2025-04-22 12:04:22
Yay
2025-04-22 12:55:22
After what happened by not saying "thank you" there is no chance he'll not say "hi"
2025-04-22 13:15:06
Jokes apart, if they both attend, and they both already officially confirmed their participation, this is a 99% yes. Interact with each other could also only be looking in the eyes
2025-04-22 16:02:52
Biden
2025-04-22 16:39:18
[link removed] wtf is going on here?
2025-04-22 16:43:23
They'll be phiscally present in the same place dude, that's enough to resolve this market
2025-04-22 19:17:25
[link removed]
2025-04-22 22:07:19
Not even 5%
2025-04-22 23:50:01
This market is about military action on pakistani soil, not border skirmish
2025-04-23 00:45:51
No i was sleeping during my indo-pakistani war class. What do you think that will happen? They’ll start bombing the azad-kashmir?
2025-04-23 00:52:01
This rules specifally require a military action on pakistani soil. Two bullet fleeing around at the border or any other skirmish cannot be considered a military action. If you want to check difference with military clash (including border skirmish) you can look up the indo-china clash market https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31?tid=1745369346245
2025-04-23 00:53:54
“Strike back”
2025-04-23 01:08:33
Shall i remember you those crazy pakistani have nuclear bombs?
2025-04-23 09:03:58
Don’t worry trump will show him some memes during the ceremony i’m sure about that
2025-04-23 09:05:23
[link removed]
2025-04-23 12:03:46
Trump will be there representing USA, i don’t think any ex-president will be there.
2025-04-23 13:28:08
Zindabad!
2025-04-23 13:54:43
Yeah the fact that does not specifically state how the LOC territory will be considered is what made me sell
2025-04-23 13:56:02
Vance gave greenlight on use of force apparently so chance of a targeted airstrike to kill the terrorist are now higher
2025-04-23 14:01:22
Good thing about this happening the 26 is that we have time for news to come about possible discussion between the two during their time in Rome
2025-04-23 14:02:20
In the rare case that visual confirmation of them “interacting” would not be available
2025-04-23 15:39:12
Mhhh sauce?
2025-04-23 17:39:14
Ok
2025-04-23 17:45:32
Thank god looks like polymarket is taking more responsibilities on administrating markets. Anyways Zelensky still said that it will use the time in Rome to discuss with trump, so I still think that nothing really changed here
2025-04-23 17:52:12
Yeah but clarification is pretty… clear… so most likely we’ll get visual confirmation or themselves posting that they have talked
2025-04-23 17:55:47
Even newspaper reporting. Remember that market deadline is end of April so there is plenty of time for video, photos, posts, and article to surface. And let’s be serious, it is impossible that they do not interact being in the same place, an handshake is enough..
2025-04-23 21:31:16
Currently 400m.. what i’m i missing?
2025-04-23 22:06:03
Fair enough
2025-04-24 10:12:24
I’ve checked better and official data is 400m. Altman then said “1 in 10 people in the world” due to studio ghibli trend. But many of those are still occasional users, so i think they are pretty far from 1b. It took them one year to go from 300 to 400 in feb 2025. Plus google says that according to data provided by OpenAi in court they estimate is that in march they had 600m, so not 1 in 10….
2025-04-24 15:46:06
No way!
2025-04-25 09:15:41
Yup, exchange of fire along LoC doesn’t count
2025-04-25 09:18:42
I can tell you that what happened today def cannot be classified as a military action
2025-04-25 09:21:34
Why biden felt the need to go after not being invited in 2023 to ratzinger funeral…
2025-04-25 10:42:39
Lmao there is a specific market for military clash. Who is the crayon lover that proposed here
2025-04-25 10:54:57
Cause many people find them tasty
2025-04-25 10:57:33
Yeah polymarket should really clarify this because most likely thats were a military action would most likely take place
2025-04-25 17:27:57
It will trade even higher once your done selling
2025-04-25 19:52:57
In the military clash market "de facto" controlled territory counts as national soil so PM might stick to that in the clarification. There was no military action against Pakistan tough.
2025-04-25 20:01:49
yeah easy
2025-04-25 20:06:04
As of the time of this update, no qualifying military action has been confirmed by the Indian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
2025-04-25 20:12:08
How can clarity of rules be bullish for one side or the other..
2025-04-25 20:17:00
I'm pretty sure that would have been an argument but a pretty marginal one if a military action would have ever took place, especially after the clash market came out, where rules were more specific
2025-04-25 20:19:42
we'll see, you can enjoy probability decay in the meanwhile
2025-04-25 22:17:50
I would just make clear that he can skip the funeral and later partecipate to a summit
2025-04-25 22:43:54
“EU event”
2025-04-26 16:45:03
No official data from openAI is required. This will not resolve because he said 1 in 10 and someone derives that is over a billion lol. Also because official data was provided by OpenAi to court, and google says that those docs reports figure of 600 million users.
2025-04-26 21:38:06
Let’s begin from the fact that the military action in question must begin from indian side. Now, most of the actions carried on by india are at a police level (houses raided and demolished etc..) but what most matters is that the US seems not to be on indian side for an escalation anymore. So you can get excited about border clashes news (and funny enough is always pakistan opening it) but be sure enough that india is far away from initiating any kind of proper military action against pakistan.
2025-04-26 21:40:29
Of course India is not under trumps ball, not like any atlantic vassal state for sure. But they do share security matters with the us regarding pakistan, and they will think twice before doing anything without their, at least, silence approval
2025-04-26 21:44:45
Well, if this market would ever resolve yes for a fucking mortar shoot is a different kind of discussion. But since this market, unlike the one about military encounter (border clashes, skirmish etc…) is about proper military actions on pakistani soil it definetely should not
2025-04-26 21:46:10
It would not surprise me sir. Now i need you to share your screen and please log in into your bank account please.
2025-04-26 21:47:10
Ps. No, none of the last two days border clashes has being initiated by india
2025-04-26 21:53:05
No, only chicken tikka masala will qualify
2025-04-26 22:23:58
yes, enjoy your 30 dollars, that's around 10% progress to reach a breakeven pnl
2025-04-28 09:59:49
549,999
2025-04-28 19:42:57
GG polymarket for noticing possible problems with rules and intervene immediately. All of this could be solved with better rules writing but, well done for how you have been administrating markets last week.
2025-04-29 23:22:06
It’s tomorrow…
2025-04-30 18:10:55
Go check people updates on tik tok
2025-04-30 18:12:30
They’ll try anything untill the last minute ofc, but they’ll fail. You can go and check yourself, there is a lot of people going there to check current state of work
2025-04-30 22:03:11
Yeah i changed my mind and sold the position. It helps nobody to leave up a comment defending a position i'm selling. Made a 1400% pnl on it tough, because I was kinda right. GDP came negative, stocks dumped, then recover. I was able to make profit in the middle
2025-04-30 22:11:26
seek help bro
2025-04-30 22:46:28
Wow
2025-04-30 22:49:08
Gena you are most miserable trader i ever encountered on this website
2025-05-01 09:15:16
You literally cannot read the the title
2025-05-01 10:03:32
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs
2025-05-01 10:04:44
The following line is then the definition of what an agreement would be, not a TRADE agreement. But you seem a smart guy, please stick around here with us.
2025-05-01 11:22:31
Are you high?
2025-05-01 11:28:01
Yes and there is nothing about trade
2025-05-01 11:34:12
Yeah but is part of the mineral agreement, has nothing to do with trade. Ofc there will be articles about tariffs and taxes on those mineral, it does not mean is a trade deal.
2025-05-01 11:35:45
Ofc course a mineral deal will have articles defining taxes and duties on those goods, but is a mineral deal, for the exploitation of these resources, is nothing about trade.
2025-05-01 11:40:50
Nice scam
2025-05-01 11:41:28
Yeah but someone need to dispute
2025-05-01 11:42:31
“An agreement over trade and/or tariff” this is an agreement about exploitation of mineral resources. You’ll not rig this.
2025-05-01 11:45:02
No trade deal was concluded by the trump administration and no newspaper is talking about a trade deal being signed. The spirit of the market was if a deal would have been reached after trump tariff, and none was.
2025-05-01 11:45:49
I can understand context, you read single words and draw conclusion.
2025-05-01 11:58:06
It’s not an assumption, object of the deal must be trade, this is not
2025-05-01 11:58:27
Only one article of the deal is
2025-05-01 12:41:42
^this, well written and exhaustive
2025-05-01 12:50:46
Polymarket has intervened in most disputed market last week, independently of what a possible clarification would be, if they decide to not post any here it would be very disappointing. The object of the deal is minerals and its exploitation. This is not a wallmart 2x1 offer, the mineral deal market expired correctly, it can be one or the other, not both.
2025-05-01 15:23:23
Thank god
2025-05-01 15:23:47
Restore order
2025-05-01 17:15:00
Why this is so difficult to understand. I know it’s not difficult, you are just trying to scam.
2025-05-01 17:22:04
I hope i’ve had actual tickets to cover this bet. The place is lit and is gonna be insane, but not tonight
2025-05-01 17:24:47
the agreement is about mineral earths. The objectives is to bring it to USA. Ofc there are articles about tariffs and taxation about that. But it does not fucking mean that’s a trade agreement.
2025-05-01 17:27:13
Either polymarket decide to leave it’s business in the hand of a bunch of scammers or either it upholds the value of prediction market as a reliable information data for society
2025-05-01 17:29:52
I hope for the best, again as for ukraine audit, i have little invested here, but if we keep resolving market on the most irrelevant shit, this website will be dead in the span of 12 months
2025-05-01 17:51:10
It’s a mineral deal. That’s the objective of the deal.
2025-05-01 18:00:58
Ayo, try again with some commas cause i had a hard time trying to understand this shit
2025-05-01 18:05:05
Yeah, idk why this is so controversial
2025-05-01 18:09:26
Either a mineral deal (with all the articles that come with it) or a trade deal. We all know the answer yet.
2025-05-01 18:10:16
Easy. It’s not an agreement over trade and tariff. Just minerals
2025-05-01 18:13:31
Not impose tariff just on minearls coming from ukraine according to the agreement. Not about everything. Try again car
2025-05-01 21:15:32
Polymarket is a great platform. It will not bend at scammers knees and prediction market are here to stay. Stop scamming and start play by rules
2025-05-01 21:34:25
For real
2025-05-01 22:10:07
Oh no
2025-05-01 22:16:10
Where is the guy that call the reception?
2025-05-01 22:50:14
You should have covered, not doubled downn
2025-05-05 11:24:13
But how can you say that? I mean what sources other than weird buying activity is out there to know that there are planes already in the Air?
2025-05-05 11:49:00
Crazy stuff
2025-05-05 15:47:04
In the past israel always retaliated within 36 hours from houthi attack. If nothing happens in the next 12/20h i think it will not happen before friday.
2025-05-05 16:19:31
Do you miss me?
2025-05-05 16:52:23
GG to the pilot relative
2025-05-05 18:10:05
Vopel argument doesn’t make too much sense. Chip roy shared southwest border figures and is 300 more than FEB, current all time low. If northwest border do not comes higher than previous month (4,5k and it was 4k in feb) then it means means that a 10% (1465) decrease on “other ports” of entries (which account for 50% of total encounters since trump took office) will suffice for a new record. Therefore, we are pricing a 85% probability that we’ll se more people trying to illegaly enter from airports and seaports compared to last 2 months.
2025-05-05 18:25:35
Plus, northwest borders came higher in march than feb due to a 3 days handicap. The daily average for both months is basically the same (146 in feb and 144 in month). If this stays the same, and that’s likely due to current immigration policy, we’ll see around 4360 encounters at the north border, if not less. That being said, if immigrants are not bothering trying to enter from terrestrial borders, what makes you think that they will try by airports and seaport?
2025-05-05 19:21:17
No it seems extremely close, something like 50-50; 60-40 if you take in account broader policy environment. But definitely not 15-85
2025-05-05 19:30:17
What i mean is that since february, southwest border encounters decreased on a daily basis. 300 more in April compared to feb does not justify 15% yes. Even more if you take into account that in march, northwest and other ports also decreased (on a daily basis too). So if they keep decreasing, 2 days of data observation more in April than feb, is not enough to be dead sure that total will come higher than feb.
2025-05-07 08:05:05
whats going on with this 20 newly created account buying 12 shares at the time?
2025-05-07 16:40:54
Going against polymarket clarification?
2025-05-07 16:42:09
Please correct me if i’m wrong, but there si no proof the jets were downed in indian territory at the time of clarification. So did something changed now? Or what?
2025-05-07 16:48:06
But was it shot on indian airspace? Or pakistani? How can you confirm that
2025-05-07 17:02:09
My opinion is that currently this is too controversial to resolve yet. We might get a pakistani strike tonight, but solving this to yes now due to a jet wreckage found in indian territory is not enough.
2025-05-07 17:03:04
I see no real change since polymarket clarification
2025-05-07 17:04:20
It’s up to them to intervene or not
2025-05-07 17:04:56
But I think they already told much. Market has been disputed again, so now we have a 48h window for whatever to happen
2025-05-07 17:09:39
Yeah really😂
2025-05-07 17:11:21
No it's not a scam, they do have strong argument and current state of affairs is on yes side. What i'm saying tough, is that what we have is not enough to resolve yet.
2025-05-07 17:32:13
Do you know how wikipedia work right?
2025-05-07 18:07:05
HABEMUS PAPAM
2025-05-07 18:07:51
I don't get why people clap without any reason
2025-05-08 08:10:16
Gm toncar
2025-05-08 08:33:52
If the pakistan market solve yes, this too, no official confirmation but consensus in reporting
2025-05-08 08:52:37
Gg
2025-05-08 09:08:45
Yay
2025-05-08 09:12:53
Bruh why you switched
2025-05-08 09:46:46
You going against gopfan?
2025-05-08 09:52:49
Oh no
2025-05-08 09:53:03
Apparently yesterday strike is now cancelled
2025-05-08 09:54:16
I’m jocking, they speculating trying to scam the market
2025-05-08 09:54:48
The problem is nobody proposed, it will be 99 again as soon as someone do it
2025-05-08 10:05:48
No
2025-05-08 10:05:53
Try again
2025-05-08 10:07:19
They seem to not understand too. As soon as i’ll be home i’ll post evidence. Someone just need to propose. I’ll not but i’ll post evidence
2025-05-08 10:08:35
Go check the pakistani friday market, they were defending too
2025-05-08 10:08:56
This we’ll be 100 as soon as fear is gone
2025-05-08 10:09:49
Excelent, we even have news about it now
2025-05-08 10:10:17
Nigga you screwed this time my friend
2025-05-08 10:14:23
Exactly
2025-05-08 10:15:09
You were the one arguing. I know a drone strike was carried, and it’s confirmed
2025-05-08 10:16:03
Fill me more please
2025-05-08 10:24:00
Nigga sold
2025-05-08 10:24:16
Nigga was ofc wrong
2025-05-08 11:16:42
Official confirmation by indian gov is hype?
2025-05-08 11:18:13
Explain me how it does not
2025-05-08 11:25:27
a dron bomb is not an aerial bomb ?
2025-05-08 11:25:55
you do qualify as an illiterate thats for sure
2025-05-08 11:36:45
“Today morning Indian Armed Forces targeted Air Defence Radars and systems at a number of locations in Pakistan. Indian response has been in the same domain with same intensity as Pakistan. It has been reliably learnt that an Air Defence system at Lahore has been neutralised.” [link removed].in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/may/[link removed]
2025-05-08 11:36:57
Imagine being so retarted to dispute this
2025-05-08 11:37:25
I'm just sad i couldn't buy more at 60c
2025-05-08 11:38:33
Plus it has been substantiated by numerous report that they used israeli drone for the attack.
2025-05-08 11:55:19
Hopefully the lowest possible
2025-05-08 11:58:56
Yeah i did not manage to buy unfortunately
2025-05-08 12:01:59
Yes indeed
2025-05-08 12:03:02
Drones, aerial vehicle, armed with bombs… do not count as air strike. Ok buddy, good luck you too
2025-05-08 12:05:05
How would you define the attack then i’m eager to listen
2025-05-08 12:05:23
Remember than other than air, you have ground and sea
2025-05-08 12:06:32
RESTORE ORDER
2025-05-08 12:15:38
Oh no reality has being denied … i think everybody must sell at this point
2025-05-08 12:16:34
Yes share must be worth 10c rn… a drone is not an air strike
2025-05-08 12:18:06
Maybe there is a 4th dimension we did not discover, cause drone bombs appartently are not air strike, but also not water or ground strike
2025-05-08 12:18:27
Maybe this no holder knows something we do not
2025-05-08 12:19:12
Aerial bomb literally, launched instead of dropped. You smarter than this, i know
2025-05-08 12:19:58
It’s not an FPV drone, these are literally flying bombs.
2025-05-08 12:22:44
[link removed].org/wiki/IAI_Harop So this is a flying bomb but is not an air strike ok. Is then a ground strike? A sea strike? What the fuck it is tell me
2025-05-08 12:25:11
Do you really think that PM will not intervene and if it does, that it will say that a drone bomb, a literally fucking flying bomb, does not count as an air strike? Yall on crack
2025-05-08 12:31:21
A loitering munition, also known as a suicide drone,[1][2][3][4] kamikaze drone,[5][6][7] or exploding drone,[8] is a weapon with a warhead that is typically designed to loiter until a target is located, then crash into it.
2025-05-08 12:32:23
Literally spent the whole morning debunking no holder bullshit, now a “loitering munition” is not a bomb. Wtf
2025-05-08 12:33:56
A loitering munition (a kamikaze drone) is by definition an aerial bomb. Period
2025-05-08 12:35:54
There is official announcement, both government acknowledge the strike
2025-05-08 12:36:12
Thank god it’s not up to you anymore
2025-05-08 12:39:27
He is recognized as “trustworthy” source by UMA, that’s how they scammed the mineral market. And they managed to do so cause polymarket didnt clarified on time. Since that time, PM is taking care of disputes as it should be, if they don’t want this website to become a scammer casino
2025-05-08 12:42:06
No a bomb that fly is not an aerial bomb
2025-05-08 12:43:18
Wind has changed, they can’t play this game anymore. PM cares about expanding, and with them doing this shit, they would never be able to do so
2025-05-08 12:47:43
Uma does not go against polymarket decision, so if pm post clarification, thats it
2025-05-08 12:48:25
UMA is pm main client, without them, they’r dead. Nobody need oracles, pm should change this whole system
2025-05-08 12:49:17
They should hire a couple of subject matter expert, one legal, and couple of people that check on markets 24h
2025-05-08 12:49:55
You’r welcome, i care about prediction markets, they are great tools and hopefully this scammy shit will end once for all
2025-05-08 12:53:28
Yeah that flying drones with warhead are indeed a kind of aerial bombs
2025-05-08 12:55:20
They will
2025-05-08 13:00:25
This last period has been pretty fair and pm took care of most cases. I think same will happen here
2025-05-08 14:52:31
So?
2025-05-08 15:08:01
Good evening toncar
2025-05-08 15:08:13
Are we getting 2 today bruh?
2025-05-08 15:13:15
[link removed]
2025-05-08 15:13:18
GG
2025-05-08 15:13:43
India intercepted pakistani missile
2025-05-08 15:15:30
[link removed]
2025-05-08 15:31:33
The airport seems to have been hit
2025-05-08 15:34:48
Blackout, something hit
2025-05-08 15:36:42
Whats the chance that none of drones managed to hit target?
2025-05-08 15:37:24
How is that bullish for no?
2025-05-08 15:38:51
I don’t see this ending well for no
2025-05-08 15:56:09
They are targeting multiple cities, do you think not even one striked the ground?
2025-05-08 17:03:00
GG
2025-05-08 17:58:12
I hope so
2025-05-08 18:36:08
Thank you brother
2025-05-08 19:30:21
Yeah less media attention than sbf, half the sentence.
2025-05-09 08:31:03
Is he not going to mar-a lago this weekend? Why signing EO on a friday :(
2025-05-09 11:11:23
What changed?
2025-05-09 12:00:53
I would but i don’t have it
2025-05-09 12:52:49
Yes apparently
2025-05-09 13:07:46
All i see here is a lot of buying pressure from the “yes” side but really no evidence that one of the qualifying weapon for this market has successfully hit indian soil. Plus, is very unlikely that another attack from pakistan will come by today due to statement from pak gov that they will delay it to let their allies move for diplomacy. With very few hours to market deadline this seems a pretty clear and easy no
2025-05-09 13:08:34
There is always room for scam attempts tough
2025-05-09 13:15:37
This is about an aerial bomb successfully impacting ground. What do airplane debris have to do with this?
2025-05-09 13:19:57
Are you betting on evidence to came out by market end or do you actually have some kind of proof that you can use to propose the market? Because looks like that yes argument is “attack has been made, so bomb must have impacted ground”. All official statement claims that all missile and drones were intercepted. Only successful strike looks to be the one carried by FPV drones, that do not qualify for this market.
2025-05-09 13:51:37
Ok so you can’t read rules apparently
2025-05-09 13:59:21
It’s not even about that, there is multiple proof that an attack has happen, but none that a qualifying weapon has striked target
2025-05-09 14:08:16
So you are holding your position hoping that they will try to rig the market and even openly admitting it?
2025-05-09 14:10:17
Yes I will, you should see it in a couple of minutes. 10$ is ok?
2025-05-09 14:11:00
No no no, i’ll take care of it. 20$ should do the job
2025-05-09 14:12:28
Nonono, if you tip 20, i’ll give him 50$
2025-05-09 14:15:54
Ok fuck it… i’ll give this guy the equivalent of my pnl, he deserves it
2025-05-09 15:34:32
Let’s go yes gang i’ve always been on your side
2025-05-09 15:38:47
[link removed]
2025-05-09 15:41:25
Clash reporting putting in doubt indian interception [link removed]
2025-05-09 15:45:07
Don’t be rude
2025-05-09 15:51:48
Drone attack do count if hit target
2025-05-09 16:08:29
Nothing ever happens
2025-05-09 16:14:40
I see them mocking pak drones
2025-05-09 16:16:35
Whats your favorite indian dish?
2025-05-09 16:18:07
Agree
2025-05-09 16:18:40
Also pakoras are delicious
2025-05-09 16:22:23
Yep they hit an house with a drone
2025-05-09 16:27:58
A drone hit an house, that’s all we know. Since we’ll never be able to demonstrate if it was the drone impacting or was because it was intercepted, i think that what we have could justify a yes resolution
2025-05-09 16:30:21
If india controlled portion, it counts as indian territory
2025-05-09 16:35:15
We had two days of drones attack, report of injured and house destroyed. I was also a no holder, but at this point I don’t see how can this resolve to No with all of what happened
2025-05-09 16:40:12
[link removed] Video
2025-05-09 16:41:22
[link removed]
2025-05-09 16:42:30
Bro pay some respect
2025-05-09 16:42:53
I even laughed wtf
2025-05-09 16:49:21
Bro it was reported by indian news first, then osint accounts, now we have visual confirmation
2025-05-09 16:50:40
These pakistani mutherfuckers lied this morning saying that they would have hold attacks to let allies move for diplomacy. You can’t trust nobody this days huh
2025-05-09 16:51:18
The news will report what we are all witnessing here. Don’t worry about it
2025-05-09 16:55:48
Look at the damage entity, these are not fpv drones, we are talking about drones with warhead. Still drones but different kind “suicide drones” as per rules
2025-05-09 16:58:43
Do you know how an fpv drone weights and what kind of explosive do they carry? Look at the videos, those are suicide drone
2025-05-09 16:59:38
Oh no yes about to get fucked… please do not sell me more share at 60 :(
2025-05-09 17:02:26
[link removed] “Most drones intercept” so the ones who were not?
2025-05-09 17:02:35
Maybe they hit a residential building?
2025-05-09 17:08:16
2 days of drone strikes, injured, blasts, destroyed building… but somehow people here find a way to argument that no missile or no drone has impacted indian soil in the last 48h… polymarket. What a place
2025-05-09 17:09:21
I read them. I know that a drone hit a residential complex, and reporting saying that “majority of drone were intercepted” so some were not
2025-05-09 17:39:12
They do, problem is demonstrate that they hit target
2025-05-09 17:40:50
At this point I think it will end exactly like yesterday
2025-05-09 17:44:22
The rules are crazy specific. They did it like that because the first one was disputed because we did not know where the indian jets were shot down, but reality is they only made worst like this ahahaha
2025-05-09 17:48:05
What yes position? I never had a yes position
2025-05-09 17:50:40
Yeah guys indian gov saying that everything was intercepted. Only visual info is about the residential building in ferozpur but apparently it was because of debris. Pak saying they are not launching anything and india saying they are intercepting everything launched by pakistan.
2025-05-09 17:53:53
Now yes side is pumping share to keep control of the price to propose resolution
2025-05-09 17:54:36
yeah but still no confirmation of impact. Ferozpur was intercepted
2025-05-09 17:55:52
Drone strike count if not an FPV and not intercepted. Ferozpur was intercepted
2025-05-09 17:57:08
?
2025-05-09 17:58:04
The only yes argument is a 20k usd share wall. Not sufficient but a strong one i might say
2025-05-09 17:59:05
What a mess has polymarket created with this specific ass impact rule lmao.
2025-05-09 18:16:21
Yeah i don't think they intended to facilitate one side. They made it like this because the previous market resolved due to the fighter jet that were shot down in india airspace. So this market was more specific about a possible pakistani attack. The problem is that they then needed to clarify drone involvment and they also clarified the fact of being intercepted. The "intercepted" part of the rules is what created a mess
2025-05-09 18:18:14
People posting 45' minute ago news should be publicly mocked
2025-05-09 18:20:36
They reported that the debris hit the house
2025-05-09 18:26:15
[link removed]
2025-05-09 18:30:00
[link removed] "drone strike"
2025-05-09 18:31:43
"Sources said that drones were sighted in Jammu and Samba in Jammu and Kashmir and Pathankot, Ferozepur and Fazilka in Punjab. One drone fell on a house in Khai Feme Ke village injuring three members of a family. They were identified as Monu Singh son of Lakhwinder Singh. Sukhwinder Kaur, the wife of Lakhwinder. They were rushed to a private hospital."
2025-05-09 18:31:52
[link removed]
2025-05-09 18:32:59
I was always on yes
2025-05-09 18:34:20
Ok i'm out of this, news are reporting it as a strike, "armed drone hit house"; "Most intercepted one slipt trough" etc... Yes has enough to resolve, it will be a long journey tough
2025-05-09 18:34:51
Tf you talking about
2025-05-09 18:35:12
I linked a wiki article, read it. It's india controlled part of kashmir
2025-05-09 18:35:40
Enjoy you weekend guys. I'm gonna grab some chicken tikka masala
2025-05-09 21:52:19
A couple of hours and a chicken masala later it looks like no holder still think that indian controlled kashmir is not valid for market resolution
2025-05-09 23:01:46
I would like to meet the crazy mf that will propose no after 400 suicide drones were launched to india today and one of it fell into an house injuring 3 people
2025-05-09 23:03:12
Ofc
2025-05-09 23:05:33
Someone before shared the X account of the indian ministry of defence stating that the drone hit the residential building
2025-05-09 23:07:55
[link removed] Here
2025-05-09 23:08:39
[link removed] “Civilian drone targeted civilian area”
2025-05-09 23:08:49
This is the indian ministry of defence
2025-05-09 23:09:26
Your brain is debris
2025-05-09 23:13:09
This has been one of the most rulecuking prone market i ever trade on but there is no way that this will resolve no after 800+ suicide drone have been launched, and the indian gov saying “most of them” intercepted. I’ll go to sleep now. Gn
2025-05-09 23:14:13
We can side bet on it
2025-05-10 15:31:45
I wish we had a ceasefire violation market :(
2025-05-10 15:36:10
Yeah the website stopped updating and the WH press pool is not reporting mar-a lago trips anymore. I wonder what source they will use to solve this to yes.
2025-05-10 16:27:40
Mike waltz timing lmao [link removed]
2025-05-10 16:55:05
[link removed]
2025-05-10 16:55:30
Lmao
2025-05-10 22:01:41
explicit statements made by both countries that they are ceasing military action for an overlapping timeframe is required.
2025-05-11 12:44:25
India-Pakistan truce appears to hold despite accusations of violations
2025-05-11 12:44:43
[link removed]
2025-05-11 12:45:16
They even open the Dam again
2025-05-11 13:58:19
I don’t have it bro. I created an X account yesterday, if you want to dm it’s @ANALista_PM
2025-05-11 15:38:53
Fixed
2025-05-11 18:12:19
You are wrong sir, you need trump to sign an EO
2025-05-11 18:27:03
mhhhhhhhhhh
2025-05-11 19:06:48
Flash: China, U.S. agree to establish economic, trade consultation mechanism, conduct further consultations on issues of mutual concern, says Chinese vice premier. MHHHHHHHHHH
2025-05-11 19:07:19
Too much enthusiasm i guess
2025-05-11 19:15:12
Do I look stupid to you?
2025-05-11 19:15:41
I can see you are not a great observer
2025-05-11 19:25:34
This was quick
2025-05-11 19:25:45
What a sunday people huh
2025-05-11 19:58:06
Tomorrow we get screwed
2025-05-12 11:20:17
People are sleeping here
2025-05-12 11:33:42
There isn’t
2025-05-12 12:43:21
There are more than 2 weeks left
2025-05-12 15:16:42
Someone knows what time is the release?
2025-05-12 15:44:59
gg
2025-05-12 15:49:15
Thanks boss
2025-05-12 16:05:39
Cet?
2025-05-12 16:09:43
Next time would be nice to have it with ranges of 1k
2025-05-12 18:17:17
Yeah i thought it was today
2025-05-12 21:33:18
Let’s gooo!!
2025-05-13 09:23:04
The spread between aapl and msft is now a 40% thinner due to positive news about china tariff but somehow is just a 7% more likely that aapl will be top marketcap by end of may? I struggle to understand
2025-05-13 10:30:16
Do i believe anything I see? [link removed]
2025-05-13 11:52:53
The same accounts of the israel strike yemen account buying yes here makes me wonder if israel is failing to intercept houthis missiles on purpose. But it wouldn’t really make much sense no? Even more if we consider how effective the iron dome is, how obsolete the houthis missiles are and that talks for gaza ceasefire are currently taking place.
2025-05-13 11:57:27
Yeah no way this is happening again to me, i’m out
2025-05-13 12:02:02
Wtf is that 200k shares wall
2025-05-13 12:23:52
Thank you Ozi. Do you know how can you see to which trader an order belong to? While is in the book?
2025-05-13 14:37:56
Yeah you might be right. I sold due to ptsd from those markets. I'll buy again if i get a nice price entry as soon as the israeli intercept the next missile, and since bibi is saying that he would not end the war no matter what, i think it will be pretty soon
2025-05-13 14:40:05
Yeah but since there might be different traders order at the same price you might buy trader's A order while the big order belong to trader B. I don't know if you see what I mean. But probably what you said is the only option.
2025-05-13 14:51:40
Yeah i forgot that in wall street there monkey buying a 44 P/E stock
2025-05-13 14:59:52
What challenge?
2025-05-13 15:04:33
But anyways you are right, both need a 5% growth to reach msft at current price (447). Nvda has much more potential to do such a rally, but it can go quickly downwards too.
2025-05-13 19:46:25
Why this so inefficient
2025-05-13 20:15:52
No apple is 10B higher than nvda
2025-05-13 20:59:16
[link removed]
2025-05-13 21:32:23
Thank you car i paper handed my shares and I need to buy cheaper. Please spread some terror in this market
2025-05-14 09:48:52
[link removed] huge if true
2025-05-14 11:10:55
If Putin wants to gain time he must start to pretend that Russia is seriously engaging in peace talks. The chances of this happening are slim, but i don’t see how can he continue to avoid usa and eu request to start peace talk without losing trump mediator role in the matter
2025-05-14 11:13:10
The fact that trump even stated that he can partecipate to talks if needed put russia in an even worse position. He might not go to Istanbul tomorrow but they can use tomorrow meeting as a preparatory round for a zelesnky-putin-trump meeting
2025-05-14 11:40:37
European union
2025-05-14 11:48:25
What do you think? How can Putin avoid to start leader level talks without putting himself on a irreversible position with EU and USA. What’s his strategy here? On field the war has basically been on a stalemate for the last 18 months if not even more. Trump is the only leader that will accept some of Putin maximalist request and convince Europeans to do so as well. What’s the purpose of proposing the resumption of peace talk but refuse to meet zelensky? I honestly don’t think that a ceasfire will be reached in the next 60-90 days. But is it this unlikely that at least he will pretend to engage in negotiations like in 2022 and thus meet zelensky?
2025-05-14 12:06:46
Lmao
2025-05-14 12:07:07
You must be very unbiased here
2025-05-14 12:35:41
I thinks it’s not impossible. But i’ll like to hear more about your pov here
2025-05-14 12:59:04
If putin meets with trump to discuss peace it will not be without zelensky tough. I'm pretty convinced about this. Regarding flying to a NATO country, nothing will happen to him if he decide to go, and he know this damn well
2025-05-14 13:46:45
Even if he does not recognize him as the legittimate leader of UKR it does not change that he will have to seat at a table with him at some point in the near future, not to geniuenly negotiate an end to the war but to at least pretend that he is and thus gain some more time. Regarding flying to Turkey, i really don’t think that thats the deal-breaker for something like this to happen. They can easily find a neutral country to host the talks, if that would ever be a problem it will be solved in 2 minutes by flying to Saudi Arabia perhaps.
2025-05-14 14:47:46
Lavrov is not going…
2025-05-14 14:49:04
Maybe Putin is?
2025-05-14 14:54:25
This will be the easiest no evere. There is not a single source providing proof that trump has been golfing in May. Him traveling to mar-a lago is not even relevant. It would be like stating that he has swimmed only because he owns a pool. Your only updater PastaPasta has even sold his last 15 shares. I wonder how this can still be trading at 78c
2025-05-14 16:05:28
Yeah I mean when an official statement will come out he will not justify his absence because he is busy lol. They may arrange a new roundtable and use tomorrow as preparatory meeting
2025-05-14 16:07:54
Yeah good luck collecting the evidence in such a way to be qualifying for the market resolution. Market rules state that golf tracker is the source and other sources can be use to supplement, not to substitute the main resolution source
2025-05-14 16:16:56
Putin is expected to release a statement later today if I'm not wrong
2025-05-14 16:18:48
Not until trump is in the region, he already said that
2025-05-14 16:19:27
Btw you have nothing to say about the itinerant Mcdonald? smh
2025-05-14 16:29:30
The tally is not incomplete, the tally has never been updated in the reference month. Plus, you have tracked all of this and you are so sure that you liquidated your yes position.
2025-05-14 16:33:55
Plus the date you provided is conflictual, they are reporting different stuff so how can we know which is reliable and which not? The market was created because it had as a base the tracker website. Without this there is no resolution source
2025-05-14 16:39:53
Where is the consensus? You reported 3 sources that reported 3 different things. ANI is an indian news agency bro…
2025-05-14 16:48:02
Can you please link the sources of him golfing on those days?
2025-05-14 17:32:38
I've tried to search on Forbes, C-span and ANI. Could'n find a single article that stated that the president was playing golf. I remember you this market is not about him visiting a golf facility or not, that is what the WH out of town pool is reporting.
2025-05-14 17:36:14
[link removed] plus trump arrived at the Trump International Golf Club West Palm Beach on may 3 so where did he golfed on friday the 2 of may?
2025-05-14 17:37:35
I repeat, it doesn't matter. The tally is not updating so the resolution source is not available anymore. Can you please provide me consensus of reporting that he has been playing golf on the days that PastaPasta mentioned'
2025-05-14 18:43:56
I don’t think this will happen but let’s see what trumps manages to achieve before end of the week
2025-05-14 19:33:52
I havent’s seen them yet, secondary resolution source is photo or video. Can you provide it?
2025-05-14 19:45:45
PastaPasta cited some sources but searching for it i found nothing. He was supposed to link it here but i’m still waiting for it. If the website does not update, i hope someone has this “definitive photo or video evidence” of him golfing, of course. Not video of him leaving the white house on a friday.
2025-05-14 20:06:34
I apologize my fellow traders, but I have indeed find proof of him golfing on the 2-3-4-10 may. They are not the sources that PastaPasta was citing (Forbes, C-span or ANI) and it’s not even photos or videos. Despite this, it is credible sources specifically reporting trump golfing on those days. The mf will definitely golf some more before ending of the month, so… gg i guess. That being said idk why pm decided to use that crappy website.
2025-05-14 20:07:15
My bad bro
2025-05-15 05:55:48
Really… :(
2025-05-15 11:18:50
How is the weather in Tel-Aviv?
2025-05-15 13:40:58
It was nice dreaming with you
2025-05-15 13:48:57
sometimes
2025-05-15 17:39:43
What a shame
2025-05-16 11:34:00
Here we go again
2025-05-16 11:45:46
Like the past 3 markets
2025-05-16 11:47:05
Anyways, idf made an allert on 3 seaports in yemen, the speculation is that the attack would have been carried as soon as trump left the middle east
2025-05-16 11:54:53
It’s fake until proved otherwise in my opinion, doesn’t mean i’m sure it will happen, but since they targeted the airport again yesterday evening…
2025-05-16 12:00:25
I do not agree with this, the fact they are being cut from civil aviation due to missile threat is enough for them to take actions against them. Plus, the frequency of attacks from the houthi has increased
2025-05-16 12:14:44
Yeah i see your point, but they successfully hit the airport just 10 days ago and israel clearly stated that they would have hit them sevenfold. So attacking again after a week or so is still some kind of retaliation for what happened, even more if the houthis are keep trying to hit the airport again. What is going on that would prevent israel to carry such a strike? The ceasefire talks?
2025-05-16 12:20:49
What do you think of this? “Insiders” again or israel likely striking now that trump left?
2025-05-16 12:44:29
This is so funny
2025-05-16 12:46:02
They did buy less than last time tough, so may be just speculation don’t you think? Nothing came out yet
2025-05-16 12:47:24
They did it 2 days ago no? Something new came out?
2025-05-16 14:11:27
This shit is crazy, i missed the new account averaging 3k at 95c
2025-05-16 14:26:12
I guess there is only one thing they like more than war… not talking about soldiers
2025-05-16 14:27:46
MOSSAD PLEASE INTERVENE WE WANT TO BET IN PEACE HERE
2025-05-16 14:30:46
I guess something will happen related to this kind of markets, this is literally free intelligence for houthis or whoever might be the object of this operations. 3/3 markets we knew 1,5h before that the attack was coming. Wow
2025-05-16 14:37:58
My ass got breached thrice
2025-05-17 11:29:00
I’m ready for it. They decided that the friday market was a no, so if the operation does not increase in scale, this is still a No
2025-05-17 11:54:12
So the market should have stayed open, because the operation begun before market deadline. So how does it work?
2025-05-17 12:01:13
If the friday market expired no, and nothing changes in the next days, this is still a No.
2025-05-17 12:46:20
Denizz wtf, on what basis you were holding No on friday and Yes here…
2025-05-17 12:47:00
IF nothing changes I said.
2025-05-18 09:33:25
Def not happened yet, according to reality, market rules and friday market
2025-05-18 09:36:43
Do you think that they will launch ground operation to pressure hamas to accept deal? Otherwise i don’t see why you are buying ceasefire at 38 and this at 70. If a deal is reached the operation will be delayed 110%. This should basically be a proxy ceasefire market
2025-05-18 09:39:43
Yeah i know you are not dumb. But i can’t see where the compelling evidence for what you are saying is… Media consensus is that a ground operation is imminent while they have already started to pound the strip with missiles.
2025-05-18 09:39:55
Exactly
2025-05-18 09:40:55
Plus, nothing has changed at operation level compared to the situation of Friday market, so this cannot solve yes without a proper ground incursion on the strip. That has not yet happened
2025-05-18 09:42:26
Yes indeed i don’t see any compelling evidence. This incorrect interpretation of events is what is causing distortion in the price action. Imo this should be parallel to ceasefire market
2025-05-18 14:54:38
Free my homies
2025-05-18 20:32:11
Jail this criminals!
2025-05-23 15:40:04
Gg thanks for the cheap dollars
2025-05-23 15:51:32
At least they didn’t use an inappropriate language
2025-05-23 16:05:35
Is people here retarted or do they just dislike money?
2025-05-23 16:22:35
Nice
2025-05-23 16:23:04
He landed in CT, multiples videos and photo. Picture of him dining in CT last night. Resolve this
2025-05-23 16:24:30
That was sweet from linabell
2025-05-23 16:25:54
Bro how did you found this if I may ask
2025-05-23 16:26:43
You can write me on X if you prefer @ANALista_pm
2025-05-23 16:37:38
I unfortunately not use it. I think i’ll probably soon create an account tough. Anyways, thanks for sharing your findings!
2025-05-26 12:02:35
It’s happening again guys?
2025-05-26 21:33:11
I wonder how low i’ll be able to buy
2025-05-26 23:10:47
This will be funny
2025-05-27 09:05:40
Hey guys, bring back yes to 30-35 and then we talk
2025-05-27 09:09:40
Oh wow you have an old ass account
2025-05-27 09:18:27
New info claiming that hamas accepted witkoff outline, waiting for israeli response. Can bibi really not bring any hostage home again? Mhhh, i’ll dance until the music stops
2025-05-27 09:32:43
What the hell is left of hamas exactly?
2025-05-27 09:34:04
They don’t even control aid coming in no more, almost all oct 7 senior command was wiped out, the only leverage they have are the hostages.
2025-05-27 09:35:55
Yeah in the long term gaza is most likely fucked ofc. Despite this, they have the opportunity to make a deal under the witkoff outline, so no clause about ending the war. Apparently, under usa assurances, hamas has already accepted this conditions. Now is Bibi time
2025-05-27 12:07:45
Yeah i saw this now.. idk, 5-10% chance seems reasonable. Probably nothing will change, but even germany is changing tones against israel and the hostage situation is getting worst every day that pass by. Let’s see
2025-05-27 12:48:47
I want gud entry bruh
2025-05-27 17:23:56
Nah for real bro lmao
2025-05-27 17:24:15
This whole yemen market saga has been crazy
2025-05-27 19:22:24
Go ahead, i had to put an order at 80c because of you yes holder being so delusional
2025-05-27 19:32:01
Feed me
2025-05-27 19:36:54
Jail these criminals!!1!11
2025-05-27 21:54:41
Why everybody so sure that he will sign any EO in the next 3 days?
2025-05-28 05:10:15
Yeah i wrote that 2-3h before it was released
2025-05-28 06:34:11
I have been here before, i would get out if i was in you.. trust me
2025-05-28 07:05:17
This market is about whether trump would have golfed 7+ days in may, and according to the official presidential schedule of the white house, that happened. The resolution criteria decided by polymarket is a crappy website that stopped updating, despite this, other websites and potus daily schedule provide evidence that he did golf. Now, what would you think that will happen? If you or somebody else dispute the market, pm will 99% issue a clarification. The fact that the resolution source is not available anymore, is not enough of a reason to resolve market against reality, and pm knows that. In my opinion, 2 scenarios may happen. 1) market stays open until june 2 and pm clarify that we need to wait to collect all possible evidence before resolving. 2) market resolve immediately due to pm accepting presidential schedule as an alternative credible resolution source.
2025-05-28 07:10:23
He did golf, he was already at trump national golf club bedminster, so of course no movement of him going there is reported, since he came back there the night before.
2025-05-28 07:32:37
Trump did golf may 25, he posted a photo of a friend of his being attacked by a goose later that day [link removed]
2025-05-28 07:33:09
5/25/25 4:57pm
2025-05-28 08:13:08
Yeah good luck trying to resolve this to no using semantic. I can see from your pnl that it has worked in the past. The scenario that poly market include in the market rules is about the tally being incomplete. In this case the tally has not been update at all, so the resolution source is just not available. In this case a new resolution sources must be found, because he did golf. I’m pretty sure that poly market will understand this, and use either the other website ([link removed]) or either the official presidential schedule. For sure it will not resolve to No just because the tally did not update. Another VERY remote option is that they solve this 50/50. But for sure is not a No.
2025-05-28 08:40:13
Official schedule does not mention he going there because that where he was that day, at bedminster golf club. Is he posting a photo of his friend in a place where they were together. The presidential schedule does not state "president playing golf" but his movement. He was there and shared a photo... What do you think he was doing? As the other six days have been confirmed, this photo confirm may 25.
2025-05-28 08:45:10
There will be no UMA scam, if they dispute polymarket will clarify
2025-05-28 09:16:57
[link removed] more proof?
2025-05-28 09:44:25
Looks like rabbit found the seventh day
2025-05-28 14:01:50
Lmao
2025-05-28 14:02:13
“If this are my market opponent i can sleep without worries” cit
2025-05-28 14:10:52
You might be able to buy a boeing 747-8KB pretty soon
2025-05-28 14:18:09
You can go check my pnl chart
2025-05-28 14:20:39
Formal ownership
2025-05-28 14:46:38
Market rules apply my nigerian friend
2025-05-28 16:52:16
The gap actually tighten today, 2.7% from msft, why this is dropping ?
2025-05-28 17:48:38
Since i bought the shares that i wanted and i don't want to see any nigerian guy selling his home, i'll give you some info. As of today even tough the DoD has accepted the gift, the plane is still formally registered under the code P4-HBJ property of the Global Jet Isle of Man, an airline owned by Global Jet luxemburg. The fact that the plane is now in the united states (and it has been since april 2nd) has nothing to do with who formally owns the aircraft, that is Global Jet. DoD announcing that they formally accepted the gift, means that they took the decision of acquiring the 747 and began the very complex process of transferring the ownership to US gov, as also the CNN article has pointed out ([link removed] Now, according to market rules, only formal ownership or transferring of long term use right will qualify for a yes resolution, so despite the Qatari gov confirming their willingness to gift the plane, and the US gov formally accepting the gift (formally in respect to US law) the plane is still registered under Global Jet Island of Man on behalf of the Qatari gov (you can check that here: [link removed] and it will probably be in the following weeks, as this process are very complex and long.
2025-05-28 17:56:15
If rules criteria would have been about public statement from the trump administration accepting the gift from the Qatari gov instead of ownership or use right transfer, this market would have better fit real events and thus better represented narrative of facts. Despite this, current formulation of rules leave no open interpretation on who is owning the jet and a simple google search could have removed any doubts.
2025-05-28 17:58:19
Indeed, they owned the jet trough Global Jet
2025-05-28 17:58:48
"A person familiar with the discussions, however, countered that the deal has not yet been finalized and that the talks between the legal teams are ongoing." from the CNN article
2025-05-28 18:00:13
“The plane Mr. Trump visited is operated by a company called Global Jet. An executive for the company, Aubry Perrin, confirmed that after Mr. Trump’s tour, the jet returned to Doha, Qatar. Mr. Perrin said that he could not disclose the current owner, but that it is privately owned and not available for charters.” From this NYT article: [link removed]
2025-05-28 18:04:28
You can check the current registration at the link i provided. All the info you need to know are there. Market rules apply for the resolution of the market, so despite every single news agency reporting that the airplane is now Trump's, all public records show the airplane as still registered under Global Jet
2025-05-28 18:09:19
Easy put, this market is about legal ownership, not about Trump administration formally accepting a gift. It would have been better if it was the last, but is not.
2025-05-28 18:24:01
You have a contract of long term right of use to show?
2025-05-28 18:27:14
Bruh I already explained it, it's up to you to understand it, believe it or whatever
2025-05-28 18:30:18
I've never manipulate a market here, if I would have been sure of the opposite of what i'm saying here I would have been advocate for it, providing proof and looking forward to a 400% profit.
2025-05-28 18:35:56
I'll leave you with one last thing. When polymarket issued this clarification "As of the time of this clarification (05/21/25 17:00 ET), a formal transfer has not been confirmed." all of the news that everybody is citing here were already available, so what do you think they were referring to? Anger will bring you nowhere
2025-05-29 09:57:17
Fuck this shit
2025-05-29 10:55:26
If i’m not wrong there is no afterhours on friday, but don’t trust me
2025-05-29 11:56:16
You are trying to solve a market against reality just because the tally did not update. This will be yes thanks to other sources we have, there is consensus that he played 7 days this months. Sell your position and save your dignity with this
2025-05-29 11:59:46
Yeah hopefully this shitty stock crash
2025-05-29 17:00:46
could someone please tell me if the price movement for friday is based on the only fact that he didn't signed anything on Wednesday and since nothing is scheduled for today everybody is just assuming by exclusion that he will do it tomorrow?
2025-05-29 17:17:34
Wait a minute! Mr president said tariff are paid by exporters! Why do they need to refund importers..
2025-05-29 17:21:14
If i manage to win this one i promise to quit my end of the month stock trade and stick to politics
2025-05-29 17:32:06
Guys if we all buy some leveraged microsoft stock i think we could move this shit
2025-05-29 17:32:51
yeah by 0,117%
2025-05-29 19:05:59
Man i’m trolling
2025-05-29 19:51:01
Glad you paper handed
2025-05-29 20:30:37
No way
2025-05-29 20:34:50
Yeah looks too good to be real
2025-05-29 20:38:45
what kills me the most are all the escamotage that zelensky use to be the as elegant as possible without actually wearing a fucking suite lmao
2025-05-29 20:39:59
I’ve never seen a suit without a shirt btw, not to talk about a tie
2025-05-29 20:42:53
Boss you stole my shares at 36 :(
2025-05-29 21:18:27
This is the final boss dispute market
2025-05-29 21:32:12
I’ll die on this hill, is not about style we’r talking, is about political communication
2025-05-29 22:38:25
I invite every yes holder to wear the same dress as zelenskyy at your wedding and tell your spouse that is a suite. You can show her this market as proof
2025-05-30 10:25:39
Yeah not that it looks so good for us, but a miracle can still happen for sure
2025-05-31 11:10:07
I love how my comment sparked a macroeconomic debate
2025-05-31 19:41:06
Is there no order book here?
2025-05-31 19:41:21
You can only buy draw without yes or no?
2025-06-02 00:55:03
All my alpha is that pm couldn’t come up with a clarification so now is all in UMA hands
2025-06-02 00:58:56
This is the first instance since the infamous mineral market so..
2025-06-02 08:19:02
Not a suit
2025-06-02 09:32:57
Is the voting currently going on?
2025-06-02 10:10:03
80c? Trying to front run insiders?
2025-06-02 10:18:46
If you ask me, not a suite. Pm did not clarify this, leaving the ball in UMA court. I think there is enough evidence for this resolving to yes, it wouldn’t be absurd. The interview of him explaining why he broke his suit rule also add another layer to the yes argument.
2025-06-02 11:33:40
It can be counter productive to prediction market spirit to have to much specific ruleset
2025-06-02 11:43:54
you are correct in this specific case
2025-06-02 11:49:28
When will the vote result be visible?
2025-06-02 17:37:51
“Probably speak” is probably a 80% probability?
2025-06-02 17:45:24
There is no guarantee in politics
2025-06-02 20:48:00
It isn’t, has been intercepted tough
2025-06-02 21:39:11
Yeah not a suit
2025-06-02 22:02:36
If uma already voted on too early 28th june, what kind of new information would make change that decision? That vote basically said, “nope not a suite, so let’s make the market expire”. What kind of possible new information can change that? Also because the only resolution source is video and images of him possibly wearing a suite. But what he wear in Germany was nothing like it. As someone previously said, the day that zelensky will wear a suite nobody will have a doubt about it, but rn he’s keeping his stance on not wearing one until the conflict will end. My money is currently on UMA not going against their previous vote.
2025-06-02 22:03:30
What he wear is what matters, not what he says
2025-06-02 22:04:43
UMA will be blamed in either case here
2025-06-02 22:05:21
They voted such in both market if i’m not wrong
2025-06-02 22:05:56
Car no other sources that a picture of what he was wearing should be necessary to determine the outcome of this market. Picture of suits not words
2025-06-02 22:06:41
I know you truly believe on your stance here. But that was not a suit
2025-06-02 22:07:28
Because he did not wear a suit, so either they vote Yes or too early. They cannot vote No….
2025-06-02 22:10:50
Bro the july market depends solely on what will happen here as of today. Because of course if this goes yes also that one has too
2025-06-02 22:13:01
So his admission (and words are not relevant to this market) would be "berlin welcomed me with rain so i had to put something"... A jacket maybe? what the hell does this has to do with him wearing a suit. No one wears A SUIT because is raining. This is ridicules
2025-06-02 22:14:22
So whats your point here? What i'm saying is, if uma tought that was a suite, both market would have already resolved. The fact they voted too early, was because 1) it was not a suite 2) they couldn't vote no, because it would have resolved the market too early.
2025-06-02 22:15:15
where?
2025-06-02 22:18:25
You can phrase it as you want. Zelensky can wear whatever and says whatever. He is not wearing a suit and he have not since the start of the war.
2025-06-02 22:19:17
One should be able to immediately tell if he was wearing one or not. The fact we are arguing about german translation should be enough for you to understand what level of nonsense this is
2025-06-02 22:20:36
[link removed] a jacket is a fucking coat, because guess what, it was raining smh
2025-06-02 22:21:24
Nah bro i'm having an hard time understanding what you are saying here
2025-06-02 22:22:09
what do you want from me i'm currently holding No at a free roll after making money on Yes
2025-06-02 22:22:42
Zelensky speaks german?
2025-06-02 22:22:53
So you are basically trusting the translators here
2025-06-02 22:23:10
while i'm judging the visual evidence of what he was wearing
2025-06-02 22:24:20
maccheroni wisdom
2025-06-02 22:25:21
There isn't because this is too much up to free interpretation, and since this is a decentralised platform they rightfully stepped back
2025-06-02 22:26:12
he's hedging
2025-06-02 22:27:08
Because he has no reason to change his political stance about it, and if you ever wear a suit in your life you would fucking know how it looks like
2025-06-02 22:28:04
bruh please
2025-06-02 22:28:15
stick to your google docs
2025-06-02 22:33:24
One thing i don't understand cause i'm not very practicable with UMA is when votes will be visibles, in 1 hour right?
2025-06-02 22:35:58
Lmao i'm the one assuming here and you'r telling me i made an emotional call.
2025-06-02 22:36:28
I'm ok with losing money don't worry, I hope you are too
2025-06-02 22:38:54
Btw Is jacket that contains suit not the opposite. A jacket can refer to the upper part of a suit and to all kinds of jacket. The context of the discussion was, "it was raining, I had to put something [a jacket]"
2025-06-02 22:39:36
A jacket can refer to the upper part of a suit and to all kinds of jacket. The context of the discussion was, "it was raining, I had to put something [a jacket]"
2025-06-02 22:41:54
But the consensus can be in all of the four voting options right since is not disclosed yet?
2025-06-02 22:44:47
Google translate is Scheisse
2025-06-02 22:46:08
I'm basing my bet on different evaluations. The most important one is the past UMA vote
2025-06-02 22:47:51
So they are voting Too early on the June market...? It doesn't make sense bro..
2025-06-02 22:48:50
That's Thu, 29 May 2025 18:29:25 GMT vote i guess no?
2025-06-02 22:50:13
lmao clearly not a rain jacket but clearly a suit... With four big pockets on it's outside... I wonder what kind wardrobe you guys have
2025-06-02 22:51:35
[link removed] Goodnight, i'll see you tomorrow
2025-06-02 22:55:01
[link removed] This is the rain jacket(t)
2025-06-02 22:55:56
A t-shirt; a military field jacket and a coat
2025-06-02 22:56:54
The same as pope funeral with more minimalistic pocket. Gtfo of this market
2025-06-02 23:01:38
Do you have currywurst on your eyes?
2025-06-02 23:06:35
Gn and gl bro
2025-06-03 05:38:53
Looks like it was not a suit
2025-06-03 06:12:50
Yeah i’m struggling to understand how this damn UMA vote works, but with less than 1k of liquidity on yes side i don’t think this is going anywhere
2025-06-03 06:15:44
Can someone explain me what happened with the vote?
2025-06-03 08:40:28
No confirmation from bejing
2025-06-03 08:42:27
[link removed]
2025-06-03 10:39:46
not yet, but too much optimism
2025-06-03 14:21:31
X231 i hope you know what you are doing because currently you are stuck with a sell order for 1280 share at 82c with the same entry price smh
2025-06-03 15:56:08
Trump never lied right
2025-06-03 15:56:40
Moreover nothing can happen until friday
2025-06-03 20:39:11
No, leavitt said a call will happen this weak without saying when, last time I checked, no official wh source stated that will be friday. Legit sources are stating this on twitter tough. We’ll see, it would not be the first time it get announced but does not happen
2025-06-03 23:38:00
They just buying because of other people buying. No previous insiders or justified news to be trading at 85
2025-06-04 13:50:35
Will Xi call trough WeChat?
2025-06-04 14:16:22
You’ll have a great time here if you believe that high odds always reflect reality
2025-06-04 16:19:10
Lmao go back to your room please
2025-06-04 20:41:10
Only 5%?????
2025-06-04 20:57:31
I’ll never financially recover if i lose this 10$
2025-06-04 22:23:01
I see, i read she was supposed to arrive the 7th
2025-06-04 22:32:44
It’s always the same news, nobody in china has ever confirmed this yet tough. The pump is due to axios purchase, due to very low yes price probably
2025-06-05 08:29:35
Yeah you right is just a phone call, just to say whats up
2025-06-05 10:40:45
This are nice written rules
2025-06-05 11:32:09
BREAKING: [link removed]
2025-06-05 12:28:48
I’m sure that at some point i’ll buy able to buy no for a ridiculously low price
2025-06-05 12:58:18
Ouch
2025-06-05 13:04:01
Winnie the poo decided to speak at 20pm bejing time, i tought i was good for today gg
2025-06-05 13:16:16
Definetly
2025-06-05 13:18:07
What the hell you talking about
2025-06-05 13:18:27
I made 2.5k by being an idiot
2025-06-05 13:21:51
Bruh xinhua reported it at 20:52, by 20:53 was all over X. You made maybe 7usd by trading cents, and I should be quiet to allow you that? If thats your strategy you’ll raise more money by begging on the streets
2025-06-05 13:22:50
Stick around
2025-06-05 13:23:59
Yeah but not on this kind of quick information market. Me commenting that the call happen literally change nothing
2025-06-05 13:24:54
Plus you made 200usd but your overall pnl is 350 after trading 700+ market. Ask yourself if you are smart enough before telling me to be quiet smh
2025-06-05 13:32:29
Bruh you literally asked me to not comment and I’m the one that should mind his own business?
2025-06-05 18:42:17
In retrospect this was a very stupid bet
2025-06-05 22:07:44
The timeline of event feature on resolved market is cool af
2025-06-05 22:15:41
never forget the sunday night scam
2025-06-07 12:30:11
I don’t like to use semantic to push resolutions but reconciliation is described by Britannica as “the act of causing two people or groups to become friendly again after an argument or disagreement”. Now, in the specific case Trump, asked by reporters on the AF1 if he has spoked with Elon, replied “No i had others thing to do but I wish him well” and this was (as per rules) reciprocated by musk on X with “likewise”. These statements are a signal of restoration of peaceful relation between the two. This market is not about them being seen together or talk to each other, is about a reciprocal statement of reconciliation, and with musk reply this morning, they went from calling each other pedos and crazy, to wish each other well.
2025-06-07 14:38:54
Rn 100%; if you listen to Von theo podcast, vance had very soft tones with musk, saying that he just made a mistake and that they want him back, so I can see musk stepping back on X in the following week. In that case Trump will probably reply positively. What happened do not benefit neither of them
2025-06-07 14:40:00
Probably will be dispute to P4. So what we currently have is good to resolve the market near end
2025-06-07 14:55:27
Vance statements on von theo are clearly a bait for musk to step back from his errors
2025-06-09 10:18:04
How can they change the rules after market creation? This is top tier fraudulent behavior from PM
2025-06-09 11:08:44
When this market was created the rules were not about confirming a possible new update, they were about the possibility of an update. Correct me if i’m wrong
2025-06-09 13:59:30
Yes, but what i’m saying is that the rule text and thus the market scope, were completely different
2025-06-09 14:00:43
There was nothing about them confirming the update or changing the june 9 part on the website
2025-06-10 12:36:03
Exactly
2025-06-12 10:35:43
They did not so long ago
2025-06-13 02:26:20
[link removed]
2025-06-13 03:54:01
Multiple strike in tabriz, iranian state media claiming a refinery was hit. Even if no clear confirmation, i would be surprised if no oil gas infrastructure was hit after todays strikes
2025-06-13 12:17:14
Free my homies smuggler
2025-06-13 13:19:30
No
2025-06-16 18:23:17
So cute he that he called for trumps birthday
2025-06-18 05:15:04
Pretty sure 90% of people do not understand this market
2025-06-18 07:54:20
How many did you eat? funfzig??
2025-06-19 10:16:48
“North Korea's launch is believed to have been a 240-millimeter artillery piece, not a 600-millimeter super-large artillery piece, which is classified as a ballistic missile. The Joint Chiefs of Staff usually notify the media of North Korea's ballistic missile launches immediately, but no announcement was made today.” From the Newsis article, that is the source cited by Financial Juice. No missiles. [link removed]
2025-06-19 10:18:04
The rocket were launch from MLRS such as KN09/KN25 or similar
2025-06-19 11:11:19
"It was not a ballistic missile launch, so we did not make any announcement," said an official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, adding, "(These types of artillery) are fired from time to time."
2025-06-19 11:48:12
Yeah old news, Peskov denied.
2025-06-19 11:50:40
Hell nah bro whats that facebook link. I’m not even clicking on that shit
2025-06-19 22:30:04
Nah they must have some kind of signal group chat
2025-06-19 23:43:05
I’ve never seen a 250k$ wall
2025-06-20 07:59:44
Lmao so far we seen him twice since jun 13 and you think there is only a 33% chance?
2025-06-20 10:21:37
It must be official, nuclear focused talks between iran and usa. Iran already said that there will be no talk until israel stop bombing them. But guess what, israel will not stop their campaign until the iranian nuclear program is completely destroyed. I don’t think there will be any, official, talks soon.
2025-06-20 11:18:05
[link removed]
2025-06-20 11:21:11
But more than everything he need to show his people he still alive if he wants to retain power during this crisis. There are fake reports on his death every 6h
2025-06-20 13:30:29
Bro it’s in the article i linked to you. Twice, once last Friday once on Wednesday
2025-06-20 15:43:41
To the new people buying yes here, events that happens before market creation do not count for resolution
2025-06-20 15:45:44
Plus any possible new scotus opinion must be specifically on boasberg order, that has already been put on hold before this market was created. This is indeed a virtually dead market.
2025-06-20 18:22:07
So good for the Iranians that they found the europeans to lose more time
2025-06-20 20:27:23
Pretty confident that qualifies even if dead. Market is about him seen in public, and i think that for legal reason pm cannot specify something like this
2025-06-20 20:42:32
If they specify that he must be alive, the No side would basically become a proxy market for his assasination
2025-06-20 21:56:02
Sandra having a rough week lmao
2025-06-21 11:29:56
Not directly. If they specify death or alive as a criteria, then it becomes an assassination market, that’s why the cannot specify it and hence both death or alive are valid to market resolution.
2025-06-21 19:42:04
Lmao this odds makes no sense rn
2025-06-21 19:47:41
Never studied history prototype
2025-06-21 19:48:54
The stuff he was talking about is basically what it proves that the videos were old max 24h
2025-06-21 19:54:14
This comment section is the equivalent of a neighborhood facebook group
2025-06-22 01:20:47
Well, what was supposed to be a little trade turn out to be the fucking worst timing ever. To all the concerned people, nothing going to happen, as usual. Just go through the many times the usa intervened in foreign conflict since wwii and you’ll understand this is nothing different.
2025-06-22 02:08:24
Did I won money?
2025-06-22 02:14:13
Yeah almost 100% after today
2025-06-22 02:20:48
Don’t you think that trump is gonna make a statement about how bad talks went with iran?
2025-06-22 02:21:04
“Diplomacy”
2025-06-22 18:24:51
Read rules again
2025-06-23 15:07:12
Why this is still in review? Wasn’t the last final proposal made more than 2 days ago?
2025-06-23 16:41:32
I remember you they must strike. No valid if intercepted
2025-06-23 16:41:53
And does this look weird to you?
2025-06-23 16:43:45
Yeah exactly we don’t know yet, very few missiles sent, but i don’t know if they will try to protect an empty military base. Let’s see
2025-06-23 16:44:31
Visual confirmation of missile intercepted in doha sky
2025-06-23 16:45:42
So far striked iraq but interception filmed in qatar
2025-06-23 16:47:12
Skatush
2025-06-23 17:00:28
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Qatari territory or cause damage.
2025-06-23 17:08:13
Fuck that shady video you posted
2025-06-23 17:24:27
Debris
2025-06-23 17:37:46
Iranians are claiming they destroyed the base, that means that at least a missile hit. Even if it the empty court everybody is talking about
2025-06-23 17:38:44
It was 10 missiles
2025-06-23 17:49:44
None hit, it was always related to the impact on the road, due to debris interception
2025-06-23 17:49:58
We would have visual confirmation by now if so
2025-06-23 17:53:46
Yes
2025-06-23 17:58:08
[link removed]
2025-06-23 18:06:32
Only thing that makes me doubt is american officials talking about no casualties and no about all interception
2025-06-23 18:07:34
I’m trading here
2025-06-23 18:07:41
There is no side
2025-06-23 18:20:44
It only looks weird the they do not confirm qatar statement and instead talking about no casualties. If none even a missile strike why not saying it?
2025-06-23 18:24:14
If a missile fell on ground missing the base it will be known in the next couple of hourse
2025-06-23 18:43:39
Yeah i was talking about a proper missile hitting ground but missing the base
2025-06-23 18:44:08
Most likely fucked it up by buying yes at 37c
2025-06-23 19:59:26
Gg
2025-06-23 20:01:39
QATARI GROUND TERRITORY
2025-06-23 20:03:55
Do we need more confirmation or the president of the united states is enough?
2025-06-23 20:04:37
Yeah sure, a crater on an open field
2025-06-23 20:09:53
Potus is not credible lmao
2025-06-23 20:11:50
[link removed]
2025-06-23 20:12:07
[link removed]
2025-06-23 20:17:18
Trump said one was let free and qatar min of defense is saying that it fell inside the base without causing damage. It means that it hit open ground on the base, without damaging any infrastructure
2025-06-23 20:19:52
They just stated so
2025-06-23 20:21:44
Dear no holders, at this time, you know that 13/14 were intercepted, where do you think the 14th missiled fell? On the persian gulf seriosly?
2025-06-23 20:32:34
If no ground belonging to base was hit this is no
2025-06-23 20:34:04
The missile that was not intercepted could have fell outside the base, debris do not count, so this is still unclear
2025-06-23 20:36:17
Debris fell into the base, trump is saying that the missile that was not intercept was heading into non threatening area, so could easily be outside of perimeter
2025-06-23 20:38:51
Axios reported that the missile strucked the base while the official statement were reporting all successful interception. It probably means that what fell into the base was the result of an interception
2025-06-23 20:39:26
Trump is stating that what was not intercepted was non threatening. So most likely did not hit base perimeter
2025-06-23 20:39:52
Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
2025-06-23 20:40:04
“Shut down OR miss the target”
2025-06-23 20:40:58
Exactly, so still point towards to impact (from interception or not) outside base perimeter
2025-06-23 21:06:17
Today supreme court ruling put on stay an order issued by judge Brian E. Murphy, from the District of Massachusetts. It has anything to with Judge Boasberg of District Court of Columbia. [link removed] Even tough they enabled the removal to third countries, market criteria are not met. “This market will resolve to "Yes" if SCOTUS lifts this order by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The block will be considered lifted if SCOTUS takes any action regarding the Boasberg order that permits deportations to resume under the Alien Enemies Act.”
2025-06-23 22:12:01
Wtf, so the iranian accepted to a ceasefire on the condition of still being bombed for 6h more?
2025-06-23 22:13:59
Hahahahah
2025-06-23 22:28:11
Lmao
2025-06-23 22:28:18
What a fucking day has been
2025-06-23 22:30:01
Iran is denying, so no agreement was reach despite announced
2025-06-23 22:32:23
Senior iranian officer just did to cnn
2025-06-23 22:34:08
Maybe, still looks insane they agreed to something that let israelis bomb them for the next 6h
2025-06-23 22:37:23
We all saw what trump wrote lol, the iranians are still denying tough. So where is the agreement?
2025-06-23 22:39:29
Setting up a trap to justify prolonged war?
2025-06-23 22:39:50
Irianians “violating” a ceasefire they never agreed?
2025-06-23 22:46:51
Trump basically imposed the iranians to initiate a ceasefire but they haven’t agreed anything. It’s a very polite ultimatum
2025-06-23 22:58:52
I mean, isn’t the video of the qatari military official not a credible source?
2025-06-23 23:00:15
[link removed] And base perimeter counts as us territory
2025-06-23 23:10:18
They did successfully defend themselves, doesn’t mean a missile hasn’t strike tough
2025-06-23 23:16:03
I hope pm issue a clarification immediately so we don’t waste time. The consensus on reporting is that it hit the base
2025-06-23 23:16:52
Read rules
2025-06-23 23:24:11
Trump would never admit that it struck the base, it’s useless to it’s narrative. The qatari ministry of defence has no reason to lie
2025-06-23 23:25:35
Saying that it was non threatening or miss whatever was valuable in the base (but still hit military base soil) was of no comunicative usefulness
2025-06-23 23:27:06
“Fell in the base area but result in no material damage or human casualties”
2025-06-23 23:30:23
All missiles were heading to the base. They didn’t let it free as trump said, they just couldn’t intercept it, and fell into the base without causing any damage
2025-06-24 00:05:28
Yes 99.8
2025-06-24 00:10:10
I don’t like playing with fire, but most likely yes 99.8
2025-06-24 00:10:39
It’s explained on the the “learn” section of pm
2025-06-24 00:16:34
It
2025-06-24 11:13:28
The 12 day and a half war
2025-06-24 11:22:02
Israel likely doing whatever they fuck they want as usual but worth the bet this time. Trump looks pretty fucking mad at bibi
2025-06-24 11:28:51
“Daddy please just one strike”
2025-06-24 11:36:23
Striked
2025-06-24 11:36:46
Clean da order book
2025-06-24 11:45:41
See you at the incoming “will iran attack Israel again today”
2025-06-24 12:38:09
Celebration to be held today at angelav revolution square
2025-06-24 12:54:31
Lol. Anyways, he definitely going to make at least a registered appearance in the next 48h
2025-06-24 12:54:43
Maybe even 12
2025-06-24 23:06:47
The only thing i learned from my south korea market experience is that consensus is usually wrong
2025-06-24 23:35:58
He’s right by agreeing with what i’m saying so i’m also right
2025-06-24 23:43:21
Also because i haven’t specify if current or previous consensus. Since yoon coup attempt i have seen this markets going from 99 to 1 back to 99 over and over. I honestly know very little about S.K politics, but definitely crowd wisdom is not a thing in this markets
2025-06-24 23:43:57
I deleted the comment but yeah wonderful subject
2025-06-24 23:45:51
I believe to have a fair understanding of markets. You should compare performance not basing on bankrolls but results. Everything here is open source, you can check mine.
2025-06-25 08:41:32
I’m crying i miss it at 60c
2025-06-25 12:42:29
It’s all in this line “ For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike.”
2025-06-25 12:43:24
Official confirmation from iran or iaea can not happen for obvious reason, thats why we use consensus
2025-06-25 12:44:46
Bro congrats on your winning in the us strike market, crazy level up
2025-06-25 12:46:47
Porx your interpretation of rules is wrong, i know your smart but you are wrong this time
2025-06-25 12:48:28
The definition of destroyed on the market rules is all we need to understand how this should resolve, primary sources are not available of course, but pm included consensus as an alternative for a reason
2025-06-25 12:52:00
Yeah this, i misread
2025-06-25 12:54:07
It’s like the 23 june strike market on us military. Everybody was saying that it hit the base, but not the primary source, and look how it resolved
2025-06-25 12:56:00
“ a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” why it should not be used explain me
2025-06-25 12:56:50
Pm will clarify this 1000%
2025-06-25 13:00:12
Can the IAEA confirm this? No Will the iranians confirm this? No, why should they? Were the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional? Yes according to wide consensus as required by rules.
2025-06-25 13:02:36
Ok i see your point
2025-06-25 13:05:20
I see now the latest news are not on the yes side
2025-06-25 13:07:17
There is apparently a leaked us intel saying opposite
2025-06-28 01:45:33
[link removed]
2025-06-28 01:46:36
Connected to phishing?
2025-06-28 13:48:20
Isn’t it a framework agreement?
2025-06-28 21:03:50
What joke is this
2025-06-30 09:46:52
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SCOTUS lifts this order by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “THIS” order is the Boasberg order that was put on hold by SCOTUS on april 7. In that decision SCOTUS explained the immigrants shouldn’t have filled the lawsuit in Washington, where Boasberg is a Judge for the district of Columbia, but instead, since they were challenging their “alien enemies” accusation, they should have brought it to the court of their place of detention. From a SCOTUS blog: “On April 7, the Supreme Court put Boasberg’s order on hold. It explained that the detainees had brought their challenge in the wrong place: Because they were challenging their designation as alien enemies, they should have filed their lawsuits as petitions for habeas corpus in Texas, where they were being held, rather than in Washington.”
2025-06-30 09:47:34
That was the last time that SCOTUS ever issued a decision regarding Boasberg order. It was made before market creation and hence has no value for this market. Any other SCOTUS decision made in the last days, were issued regarding other judge’s cases dealing with AEA removal. This market was nonsense since it inception, because the rules specifically required SCOTUS to remove Boasberg order, when they already issued a decision 20 days before. If the rules would have been “SCOTUS issues a decision that allows US federal gov to resume AEA removals” it would have been a yes some days ago. But since this market is ONLY about Boasberg order, there was no practical way that this could have ever resolved yes.
2025-07-01 13:45:46
Nobody proposed yet
2025-07-01 16:06:45
Passed in senate
2025-07-01 19:46:05
Oh no
2025-07-01 22:49:36
At this point hamas will rather be oblitared and bring hostages with them
2025-07-02 11:51:33
It's bold to think there is only a 19% chance of them not even having a phone conversation for the next 30 days.
2025-07-03 11:02:37
Gm toncar
2025-07-03 11:35:33
Crazy that you are damn sure that putin and trump and will have a phone call with peskov denying any official confirmation, but you have doubt here although this has been confirmed by official sources.
2025-07-03 11:49:21
Make sense
2025-07-03 11:58:49
The EU is willing to accept the 10% baseline. Any agreement in principle that recognize this and it is aimed to continue talks after deadline qualify for a yes resolution.
2025-07-03 14:51:55
[link removed]
2025-07-03 15:00:02
Barak David freebooted a +6h old news from channel 12 and this shit skyrocket 25c on the yes side. I wonder how much Axios pays him for this bullshit.
2025-07-03 15:01:45
Odds are exactly the same as of 3h ago, if not lower since the new sanction announcment
2025-07-03 15:49:13
They do not even need to sign anything
2025-07-03 16:04:22
Hamas informed a Saudi newspaper that they intend to respond positively to the ceasefire proposal tonight or tomorrow morning, adding that terms are similar to the one of the previous ceasefire. They are trying to bargain on prisoners/hostages ratio but a part from that this looks like the most promising ceasefire deal since the last one was broken. Broader environment also changed but you most definitely already know that
2025-07-03 16:12:48
Only 5% chance of hamas accepting in the next 36h looks very low. I guess that since they really care about trump to be a guarantee for this deal, they’ll give him his 4th of july gift
2025-07-03 16:20:27
No there is no pattern in stuff like this
2025-07-03 16:32:03
Prisoner hostage swap ratio is what they are finalizing
2025-07-03 16:38:58
Smells like chat gpt
2025-07-03 16:43:05
Ratification of a possible agreement means that an agreement has been found first. Bessent said that they will work the whole weekend on it, for what reason according to you? They’ll reach an interim agreement before july 9, same as most of the deals that made other market resolve yes. Nothing different here.
2025-07-03 20:55:56
Crazy that this is not moving
2025-07-03 21:52:40
Def denizz alt….
2025-07-03 23:37:41
Moses.. i profoundly respect you and hate to copy paste rules on you as if you never read it but: “If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.” If hamas is set to release a statement tomorrow agreeing to a general proposal for a ceasefire, but no ceasefire is implemented by that day, why should this resolve to no?
2025-07-03 23:48:23
From my january memories nothing of this happened. From the moment that hamas agrees to whatever condition israel made (including negotiating some of them later) this will be a yes.
2025-07-03 23:59:33
Us proposal this time pretty much equals to the israeli. I honestly can’t recall last time hamas gave such positive feedback about it. But this time certainly has no reason to give bad ones. It’s pretty much take it or lose it. This being said, whatever kind of deal they agree to before the next 31h will most likely include end of hostilities. But we’ll both see what happens next :)
2025-07-04 00:00:32
[link removed]
2025-07-04 00:01:20
Sorry if I keep deleting my comment but it is to fix grammar
2025-07-04 00:04:17
Just look at channel 12 first page and tell me the last time it reported such positive ceasefire news [link removed].il/
2025-07-04 07:11:39
Trump says answer in 24h, it’s currently 03:00am in washington. We already know hamas response was positive yesterday. This will pay off
2025-07-04 11:19:21
Ozi you are wrong. The negotiation will take place once they accept this deal, during a first period of 60days, exactly like the last time.
2025-07-04 11:21:20
If they accept a deal, where they will negotiate the end of the war during a 60days period, and during this 60 days period a ceasefire will be in place, what they agreed is indeed a ceasefire.
2025-07-04 11:22:06
They are so scared this gonna happen that are now trying to convince you that a ceasfire is a framework agreement for a ceasfire…
2025-07-04 11:23:48
and during this 60days a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement will be in place
2025-07-04 11:24:41
Bro if they accept this deal this will resolve yes believe me. I’ve been trading here for 6 months, ain’t no way nobody scam this through uma
2025-07-04 11:26:42
“ the organizations support accepting the ceasefire agreement as a first stage that will last 60 days.”
2025-07-04 11:28:27
They will never start negotiations without a ceasefire in place, i can’t believe sharps don’t understand this
2025-07-04 11:32:37
We’ll see denizz, i would like to bet a doner kebab on the side
2025-07-04 11:34:50
They are already negotiating, what would they otherwise accept? To negotiate more in doha while not changing anything on the ground?
2025-07-04 12:04:22
[link removed]
2025-07-04 12:06:13
Now tell me that if the agree in 24h this is not a ceasfire agreement. The fact that the agreement might be incomplete does not mean that it does not foresees a ceasefire. It means that while agreeing to a 60 days ceasefire they will negotiate the rest during this period. Yall being blind to what is going on
2025-07-04 12:07:24
Al hadath news article about the hamas source saying a response to the ceasefire agreement will be given in the next 24 h (before friday)
2025-07-04 12:08:14
Read the article i just posted denizz, and explain me again they are agreeing to a ceasefire.
2025-07-04 12:13:20
Yes
2025-07-04 12:16:05
This si Al Hadath article translated. [link removed]
2025-07-04 12:34:32
To all the people scared by the Friday No holder list. If the 60 days ceasefire is agreed before 11:59 pm ET, this will resolve yes no matter what. They have been wrong before and they will be again. PM will not let this expire No if a ceasefire is agreed. If you want an instance of how wrong they can be go and check the “Trump trade deal in April?” market where they where all sure about the Ukraine mineral agreement qualifying as a trade deal.
2025-07-04 12:46:20
They know Hamas will accept it by tonight. They literally said it.
2025-07-04 14:11:04
Trump said that they want to reach the ceasefire before Netanyahu visit on Monday. Do you think that the doha talks will take place during the weekend? They will agree to a baseline (or framework if you prefer) that foresees a 60 days ceasefire as a precondition for whatever. For the purpose of this market there is no even the need of a starting date, they likely have one, but even if it’s decided in later talks, the only thing that matters here is if they agree to a ceasefire or not. And this will be known in the next 6/8h.
2025-07-04 14:12:55
If anything the positive response to a framework is what they expressed yesterday. Today we expect official announcement at the end of consultation. The moment this happens, if accepted, panic will spread in this market.
2025-07-04 14:14:18
“ Israel has said that it does not agree to the proposal but that it will engage in further talks to secure an agreement” from your article. This is exactly why this time is different, the proposal is the israeli, hamas has to accept it.
2025-07-04 14:15:34
“Israel has said that it does not agree to the proposal but that it will engage in further talks to secure an agreement” from your article. This is what differs now.
2025-07-04 14:16:26
Btw you are wrong also because number of hostages to be released was agreed
2025-07-04 14:32:52
I see your point about the January resolution. Thank you Ozi
2025-07-04 14:44:34
I'm pretty confident this time is the time, July 15 will very likely be a Yes imo. Regarding the feedback, one must be openminded to survive here. I think there is very much value in discussing opinions in the comment section, and I remember having nice debates with you here. GG
2025-07-04 14:59:04
Yeah after analyzing the jan market and the ceasefire timeline of event it looks pretty obvious to me now
2025-07-04 18:14:02
Two sources told Al-Hadath: Hamas demanded that the US sign as a guarantor to permanently cease the war.
2025-07-04 18:42:31
Where did you read them?
2025-07-04 19:41:44
Where is he? he changed name 100 times.
2025-07-04 20:10:00
lol
2025-07-04 21:59:57
ahhahahahh thank you buddy. But peace on my soul make it looks like i'm dead lol. Btw follow me back on X, i'm trying building up the account, I would also like to talk with you there since i don't use discord (yet). ANALista_PM for who's interested
2025-07-04 22:01:46
From their standpoint they are just doing what they should unfortunately. Trying the get the most out of a desperate situation.
2025-07-04 22:30:23
They act for a purpose, not for money. That should have been clear to you since october 2023.
2025-07-04 22:31:32
Nah but whatever they agree will be tariff related and hence a yes
2025-07-04 22:41:40
Ofc they are. But still they get some framework agreement
2025-07-04 22:45:44
You think there is ~65% chance of trump saying something on the line of “negotiation with EU went terrible! But i’ll not enact the 50% tariff on them rn out of compassion”. Imo they’ll do a framework agreement where EU accepts the 10% baseline, and agree to take more time to negotiate the rest. A scenario where Trump does not declare “more winning” is highly unlikely to me
2025-07-04 22:46:44
Idk if you see my reasoning, i’m too tired to argument it better than this
2025-07-04 23:19:52
He needs to justify that politically somehow. An interim trade agreement sound just right for europe
2025-07-04 23:21:45
There is no trust or exception, only valid arguments
2025-07-05 11:06:12
So you really think he’ll just let tariffs go into effect after being able to close deals with just 2 of the 76 countries?
2025-07-05 11:10:19
3* i forgot about china
2025-07-05 12:19:14
I think if an agreement is reached on IDF withdrawals position then bibi might make concession on the aid mechanism. There is still a good +60% chance that an agreement is reached by the 15th. Monday will probably be a pivotal day.
2025-07-05 12:24:18
If Denizz would stop dumping.... He always fuck up his entry price
2025-07-05 12:36:45
Trump will guarantee this ceasefire and they'r pushing hard on Bibi to get it done. They just need to find a satisfying compromise, and it looks like they going in that way. Question is will 10 days be enough? Bibi visit still has to happen and it will ofc be very relevant to the discussion. l
2025-07-05 12:37:15
Denizz I know you good. I just want to tease you.... I like your attention
2025-07-05 13:04:34
A portion of the market was convinced that Hamas agreeing would have equaled to reaching the ceasefire. That's why the news was sold. Despite this, I expect positive news to follow until Monday night.
2025-07-05 13:06:02
If someone would like to insult me you can do it on X (at)ANALista_PM
2025-07-05 14:15:59
Hamas has being obliterated; Iranian regime lost any credibility of being a relevant actor in the ME; Bibi wants normalization with arab countries but can’t happen without solving gaza issue; there are no realistic military goals left in the strip; Trump wants the conflict to end asap and take merit for it; Hamas knows that this is probably their last exit chance and are being pressured by qatar and egypt. Israeli security cabinet is conveying tonight and tomorrow ahed of Monday visit to washington. Israeli media reported that trump is pushing bibi to finalize a deal by then. No, i don’t think this is the same circus.
2025-07-05 16:25:42
I understand skepticism but things are moving
2025-07-05 23:17:57
Is... Is this free money?
2025-07-05 23:55:48
"just in"
2025-07-06 09:40:30
This yemen strike markets are such as scam that according to polymarket my shares are already worth 0
2025-07-06 10:09:36
Yeah it’s bugging
2025-07-06 10:10:57
I just revenge traded
2025-07-06 10:16:19
They keep filing arrest order for this mf but the courts keep dismissing it? Why this time is the time?
2025-07-06 10:20:21
What profits
2025-07-06 10:22:15
I’m interest in your quantitative model… what did you use? An abacus?
2025-07-06 10:43:05
Israel's Channel 13 reports that Trump is expected to announce the Gaza agreement tomorrow, Monday, or the day after tomorrow, Tuesday - that is, during Netanyahu's visit - if negotiations proceed well. The Israeli government is expected to remotely approve the agreement on Wednesday or Thursday, while Netanyahu remains in the United States. The deal could begin next week, perhaps as soon as Sunday, Israeli sources say.
2025-07-06 12:21:55
Literally how tf can be a 70% chance they strike in the next 40h
2025-07-06 12:59:43
Last market had similar price action but resolved no, i’m not taking the risk tough. I thought 60c no was a good entry goddamit
2025-07-06 13:12:37
It’s not high, shares are worth 0. Check your wallet
2025-07-06 13:14:43
Damn so is cheesefire now
2025-07-06 13:16:51
I’m kidding
2025-07-06 13:33:57
[link removed] this are the kind of filing available... just saying. The tesla CFO sign is worthless since anybody can do a fake electronic filing
2025-07-06 13:36:12
lmao look at the amount of fake filings available [link removed]
2025-07-06 13:36:30
Someone made a nice scam here
2025-07-06 13:47:22
Yeah true value is again 30c maybe
2025-07-06 13:48:32
You know he is a trader here right?
2025-07-06 13:49:08
Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the mastermind behind this. Or maybe just taking advantage of it.
2025-07-06 13:49:55
And what a timing lmao. 3 minute later my first comment with a fake filing
2025-07-06 13:55:50
Thank you moritzk
2025-07-06 14:02:22
Is it the same as a single candidate committee? Just asking
2025-07-06 14:27:46
@osint613 it’s one of the worst X account ever. Stay away from it
2025-07-06 14:29:47
It’s all about technicalities my friend
2025-07-06 14:46:24
With all the precedents and for all of fuckeries that happens in SK there is no way fair value of yes was 85%. Just like june market.
2025-07-06 14:47:49
Ayo wake up. The executive order states that tariff will go in effect july 9 automatically. Do you really think they’ll do nothing about it?
2025-07-06 20:34:39
[link removed]
2025-07-06 20:48:10
“ provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.” we getting there
2025-07-06 20:52:43
Fucking insiders
2025-07-07 01:32:30
No official confirmation yet
2025-07-07 01:42:03
Yeah maybe not but “interception under review” is never good
2025-07-07 01:54:14
Yeah fuck my life for panic solding. Is in the west bak
2025-07-07 01:56:10
Idk if nablus but southern west bank. Towards israeli illegal settlement
2025-07-07 01:57:26
The videos looks legit, there was a hit. But west bank does not qualify for this market. Also make sense because alerts were issued over there
2025-07-07 02:00:50
Also make sense because nablus is in the middle of the west bank so they saw it coming from north and impacting southern WB
2025-07-07 02:04:30
Yeah ok mr. I saw a video. Israeli are probably waiting to confirm this because it probably hit military facilities or settlers. So no good for them anyways, but still not apply to this market.
2025-07-07 02:22:09
Apparently they were targeting israeli settlement in the west bank ok purpose. And they managed to hit the target.
2025-07-07 02:23:11
Yeah this sounds as pretty much what happened. Back to 80 as soon as car dumps
2025-07-07 12:16:13
Why would ever voluntarily going to a court hearing count as being detained? We do not even need a clarification for that
2025-07-07 12:27:40
Yeah in detention. Not inside of a court lmao
2025-07-07 12:37:18
You even had the chance to read comments beneath before buying
2025-07-07 13:06:55
"In the event the court issues the warrant, it will be the second time the former president is placed in custody." The Korea Herald. And you sold again lol. Maybe the don't reject the warrant, but him going to the hearing does not qualiify for the market
2025-07-07 13:15:03
In the event the court issues the warrant, it will be the second time the former president is placed in custody. -Korea Herald. They might not reject the warrant, but him voluntarily going to the hearing certainly does not qualify for the market as being in detention lol.
2025-07-07 13:23:55
Cometojesusmoment will eventually have his own moment and sell his shares. If the missile hit israeli territory and not some hill in the west bank this would have already be known at this time.
2025-07-07 13:25:46
You are so confident of your toughts that you don't even hold 50cent worth of shares anymore.
2025-07-07 13:29:32
Yeah but only because of a positive outcome for the hearing. Not because of him going to the hearing. And honestly in this comment section i'm seeing the exact same vibe as the june market. Everyone was so confident, then a guy went from +30k to -5k and deleted his account. Indeed, none of you hold a single share, because you well know that this is not 100% certain.
2025-07-07 13:31:10
Yeah apparently you don't understand those market rules either. That's about him being sentence to jail after trial, not before. crazy
2025-07-07 13:57:20
Kudos on K****i platform for the marketing move. Despite this, they also fuck up resolutions, you can check Domer post about it. [link removed]
2025-07-07 14:01:23
If i’m waiting for the result of my analysis inside an hospital, am I being recovered?
2025-07-07 14:02:29
Ofc he will wait there because guess what, if the hearing is positive…. He will be in detention!
2025-07-07 14:28:47
Yeah ok i’ll even not argue about it. One is formally detained while voluntarily going to his detention hearing.
2025-07-07 20:32:34
Skeleton agreement was in the air last time check. Rn i blindly bought at 21yes
2025-07-07 21:19:25
GG koreans
2025-07-08 09:07:24
It’s an update from the incident from 15h hours ago
2025-07-08 09:09:06
[link removed] You can read “update 002-8July”
2025-07-08 09:26:39
“Release an update … for the merchant ship that was attacked yesterday” there you have it, on the post you linked here
2025-07-08 09:38:47
Attacks carried before market creation do not qualify
2025-07-08 09:49:17
This market was not created at 21:34 UTC 7july
2025-07-08 10:17:35
If this market resolve based on the updates of an attack occurred yesterday this is big time bullshit
2025-07-08 10:18:38
You can check that here, is always referred to incident n.27 that began yesterday [link removed]
2025-07-08 10:26:28
Plus the update do not report any new qualifying attack
2025-07-08 11:29:09
Gm toncar
2025-07-08 11:29:34
Losses ahahhahaha
2025-07-08 14:01:51
Gm
2025-07-08 18:21:05
Yeah it wasn’t moving as I tought. Made a mistake, could have made more money. This is still a no
2025-07-16 21:40:13
Al-youm: “A military source in the Syrian Interior Ministry said the shelling targeted the vicinity of Mezzeh Airport, where some ammunition depots are located” [link removed]
2025-07-16 21:41:18
Sawt-beirut: “A military source in the Syrian Interior Ministry told Agence France-Presse that the shelling targeted the vicinity of Mezzeh Airport, where some ammunition depots are located.” [link removed]
2025-07-16 21:47:22
The attack on the airport was carried. They target munitions depots located there. Is not so impressive as an attack, so it has not been reported as extensively like the earlier one. But id did happen and it was inside of Damascus governorate. I don't think this is disputable.
2025-07-16 22:30:51
Channel 11 reported that it striked mezzeh neighbourhood that's why it is reported as “vicinity of Mezzeh air base”. Alarabya: “Syrian authorities reported new Israeli strikes near Damascus on Wednesday evening. A military source in the Syrian Interior Ministry told Agence France-Presse that the shelling targeted "the vicinity of Mezzeh Airport," where "some ammunition depots" are located. Israel's Channel 11 reported that the shelling targeted the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus.” [link removed]
2025-07-16 22:37:39
looks like It's two distinct attack, the one you say was targeted fourth division HQ in al moadamyeh. While the mezzeh airport targeted an ammunition depot, likely close to the airport but still part of the military facility
2025-07-16 23:19:12
Honestly it remind me of how the us military facility in qatar market unfolded. At the end it resolved yes. But the official confirmation from the US came 4 weeks later
2025-07-16 23:36:04
Israel targeted the airport AND the mountains near Muadamyat AND Qantana. As clash reports stated. Hopefully we know more tomorrow but this looks more like a Yes than a No.
2025-07-16 23:36:49
[link removed]
2025-07-16 23:37:00
All the arab sources are stating so
2025-07-24 17:41:26
We back
2025-07-25 10:54:13
I’m still holding no on the july 31 market but the problem isn’t it that khaosod is not trustworthy. The problem is that is the only source claiming this
2025-07-26 15:32:40
Friday market will resolve no; military confrontation will end in 12-24h
2025-07-26 15:49:01
If so I then think you have a great entry price!
2025-07-26 16:14:30
Hedged another 500 on friday market just to be sure
2025-07-26 18:03:16
The red flag is polymarket doesn’t look like is willing to issue a clarification so far
2025-07-26 18:06:39
The thai info doesn’t state that they carried a qualifying attack tough. Just the use of f-16.
2025-07-26 18:06:50
Thai gov*
2025-07-26 18:08:17
I’d like to hear car stance on this
2025-07-26 18:09:57
He just dumped
2025-07-26 18:27:21
Regardless of price action, here it’s all about proof of a qualifying strike. The thai gov declaration that was shared earlier did not clearly state the use of bomb or missiles against military target inside market timeframe. “…confirm the use of F-16s to counter Cambodia on July 24-25, 2025, in accordance with the right to self-defense“ this is all the thai gov statement reported. As someone said, until we have some undeniable piece of evidence about a qualifying strike, the ultimate decision bears in UMA hands. Polymarket did not issued a clarification yet, and no piece of proof is available to remove any kind of doubt. Or at least i’m not aware of it.
2025-07-26 18:28:09
It’s 14:30 pm in nyc rn. They have been awake for a while
2025-07-26 18:42:58
If they do not clarify this is No. period
2025-07-26 18:51:52
No in 4h we’ll know how it will resolve
2025-07-26 18:55:31
You literally switched 1h ago
2025-07-26 19:01:17
I was hedging my 500nos on july 31. Fuck my life i sold 300 yes at 23 right before pump. It is what it is
2025-07-26 19:01:47
This still controversial imo
2025-07-26 21:21:02
No one translated it tough
2025-07-26 21:22:06
Overcome your traumas brother
2025-07-26 21:25:42
There is a facebook post car. Is done. GG
2025-07-26 22:13:49
What if they asked permission to board
2025-08-06 16:51:15
Balance has nothing to do with hands. Is time based
2025-08-06 17:00:06
He is being quick ngl
2025-08-06 17:12:32
Man has being crushing it and still has 9h ahead
2025-08-06 18:29:24
20 out of 169 to go. 8h left
2025-08-06 18:59:04
At this point i just believe in this
2025-08-07 07:49:48
How is it possible that pope francis was an option? Lmao
2025-08-09 11:36:33
Hamas sources say intensive contacts are underway to end Gaza war. Current proposal includes: Full Israeli withdrawal Release of all hostages Disarming Palestinian factions Expelling top Hamas commanders via Ynet
2025-08-09 12:01:49
At this point just give your private keys to chatgpt
2025-08-09 15:46:06
Hey, why the f did you stole my profile pic
2025-08-09 16:27:15
Everybody is so damn sure in SK markets until they’r not
2025-08-09 16:41:07
Wtf..
2025-08-09 16:43:17
I guess this is how you become a respectable trader
2025-08-09 17:23:51
What about non leader level talks on the first day of the summit?
2025-08-09 19:59:39
Yay
2025-08-09 21:30:10
Rumors about trump having west nile fever
2025-08-09 21:41:35
4real
2025-08-09 21:42:04
Took me 10’ to figure it out what was happening
2025-08-09 22:14:18
I think it’s just Trump’s shenanigans not to go to Alaska. He’s such a Mar-a-Lago guy.
2025-08-10 09:53:23
Huh
2025-08-11 12:16:58
Washington, D.C. will be LIBERATED today! Crime, Savagery, Filth, and Scum will DISAPPEAR. I will, MAKE OUR CAPITAL GREAT AGAIN! The days of ruthlessly killing, or hurting, innocent people, are OVER! I quickly fixed the Border (ZERO ILLEGALS in last 3 months!), D.C. is next!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT
2025-08-11 17:11:20
“I direct the Secretary of Defense to mobilize the District of Columbia National Guard and order members to active service, in such numbers as he deems necessary, to address the epidemic of crime in our Nation’s capital.” I direct… order members to active service… I think this should be enough to resolve according to the MU and market spirit. Again, “order members to active service”.
2025-08-11 17:12:34
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump deploys any National Guard troops into Washington, D.C., on active duty by August 11.
2025-08-11 17:13:32
Clearly a yes. I will hold until polymarket clarify. But Trump could only deploy them trough an MU, which has been done. Regardless of them being in the streets already or not
2025-08-11 17:15:48
!This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump deploys any National Guard troops into Washington, D.C." Did he? yes. Doesn't matter if they are in the street or not. What the rules foresees was future deployment, meaning that he threaten to do so without actually acting. But the Memoranda is clearly whats needed for this to resolve yes.
2025-08-11 17:17:31
Damn boy read yourself again lmao
2025-08-11 17:19:53
Also in the memorandum the wording mobilization is used because "deployment" is used for army in the instance of foreign missions. You don't get deployed to your own country.
2025-08-11 17:20:19
Oh and what are they mobilized for in this case then?
2025-08-11 17:20:56
The President of the United States is the commander-in-chief of the District of Columbia National Guard.
2025-08-11 17:23:22
Doesn't make any sense bruh. Plus market spirit was all about this. And trump did issued an executive action that orders members to active service. Go read it. Understand context instead of just focusing on "mobilising"
2025-08-11 17:23:46
"regardless of whether the troops are engaged in public-facing operations within the market's time frame."
2025-08-11 17:23:59
I mean what the fuck are we even talking about
2025-08-11 17:26:47
Huh thats why you are selling then. Anyways the memorandum orders ACTIVE SERVICE
2025-08-11 17:55:01
I’m confident polymarket will not let this expire to No.
2025-08-11 17:56:29
The era where news says x and markets expired y is coming to an end. And rules are not controversial here. Clarification will come.
2025-08-11 17:58:04
Education
2025-08-11 18:01:04
Call shayne domer. We need clarification here
2025-08-11 18:16:41
I love how this market doesn’t show up on the new “breaking news” section lol.
2025-08-11 18:54:19
I joined the dark side
2025-08-12 00:08:33
Nah
2025-08-12 08:25:50
this is ridiculous
2025-08-12 08:28:14
Waiting until market deadline to issue a clarification is criminal
2025-08-12 09:13:26
What do you mean by that
2025-08-12 09:42:52
That’s not how things work here
2025-08-12 10:18:08
[link removed] Shame on this fucking market
2025-08-13 19:39:16
According to sources, Hams expressed willingness to withdraw its forces - in exchange for Israel's withdrawal to agreed points, and it emphasized its commitment to preserving the lives of the hostages, according to them. They noted that Egypt is working to formulate a comprehensive ceasefire deal in Gaza, planned to be implemented at the end of August
2025-08-13 19:42:05
Egypt has accepted Hams’s demands, ahead of presenting them to the mediators and Israel. Hams demanded a written agreement with Israel that includes international guarantees for no renewal of the war and stopping the Israeli plan to conquer Gaza
2025-08-13 21:41:41
This should be a lesson for whoever wants to bet here regularly that there is no written rule on how polymarket decides to behave regarding clarification and markets coherence. Adjust your risk management accordingly
2025-08-14 13:38:55
[link removed]
2025-08-15 06:22:00
Bro 2milion profit polymarket og is telling you that, just believe it
2025-08-15 09:29:28
The court set the date for the 29 and will not move it. The news about a 6month delay was circulating before the decision for the 29 as date. Even if they don’t testify it will be consider as them refusing to exercise their right.
2025-08-16 23:41:48
That would be so cute ngl
2025-08-16 23:43:40
“ two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other” it’s too good to be priced 8c
2025-08-18 14:20:48
[link removed] 6% chance that Zelensky hug Trump like he did with Kellogg here?
2025-08-18 15:25:07
Lets all be cautiously optimistic about this huh
2025-08-18 15:47:11
Does bib have the political capital to say no to freeing all the hostage? Even outside a comprehensive deal?
2025-08-18 15:51:56
Saw that, but i also saw previous reports saying that bibi red lines could drop for an agreement freeing all the hostages. This looks like it
2025-08-18 16:00:46
Bro how much are your pills? I’ll tip it to you, it looks like you are struggling without it
2025-08-18 16:23:04
Probably they’ll refuse this deal to get a better one, and vote (and approve) gaza takedown in the meanwhile
2025-08-18 16:56:17
He’ll give him a super giga handshake and maybe even an hug
2025-08-18 17:16:23
Remember, the longest videotaped
2025-08-18 17:18:15
It was
2025-08-18 18:00:35
Hopefully they have a great talk and we see +55% increase in handshake time when leaving
2025-08-24 13:45:23
Just propose if a missile (and not its debris) struck israel, remember to link sources ;)
2025-08-24 13:51:12
Exactly, still not a yes
2025-08-24 14:14:40
Ilana Hatoumi, whose house in central Israel was hit by a part of a Yemeni ballistic missile fired at Israel on Friday, speaks to Channel 12 about the ordeal.
2025-08-24 14:15:00
From the israel times live blog
2025-08-24 14:31:36
What hit the old lady house was shrapnel, read the source you posted.
2025-08-24 14:33:18
Please link official idf source
2025-08-24 18:45:00
So no more pre clarification am i right?
2025-09-05 07:13:58
Kissinger 100%
2025-09-05 09:55:14
Adding a secondary title is changing the name?
2025-09-05 09:55:58
“Change the names” or “renames” the department is what the rules requires
2025-09-05 11:14:08
The executive order or action is what defines the resolution of this market, and guess what, the president cannot change departments name, the congress can. That is why they are adding a secondary title, and thus not changing the name. That is because if he does, the EO would be illegal. If he signs an illegal EO then this market can resolve to yes.
2025-09-05 11:29:02
"Any executive action that renames the departmen" that must be the object of the EO for this to resolve to yes. Adding a secondary title because he cannot indeed rename the department, is not what is required by the rules. An EO that changes the name is. A secondary title is not the Department title. To rename a department you must change it's staute, and only congress can. Only an unlawful EO from Trump could trigger the yes resolution of this market. And I can read btw
2025-09-05 11:31:30
"Any executive action that renames the department" that must be the object of the EO for this to resolve to yes. Adding a secondary title because he cannot indeed rename the department, is not what is required by the rules. An EO that changes the name is. A secondary title is not the Department title. To rename a department you must change it's staute, and only congress can. Only an unlawful EO from Trump could trigger the yes resolution of this market.
2025-09-05 11:32:39
OFC there is a chance that Trump signs an unlawful EO, he already did in the past.
2025-09-05 11:36:15
The executive order will allow the DOD to start using the term Department of War as a "secondary title," and will let Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth use the title Secretary of War, according to a fact sheet obtained by CBS News. Other government agencies will be directed to "recognize and accommodate" those secondary titles.
2025-09-05 11:36:28
[link removed]
2025-09-05 11:45:36
Bruh I've been trading here more than 6 month. I can tell you that to understand markets you must go deeply into subjects. Trump cannot rename a department, so he cannot sign a lawful EO to do that. He can find an escamotage to make people believe he did so, and for the press to talk about it. Now, if he adds a secondary title to the department, he didn't change the department name, that is the object of this market. Despite this, many things changed in poly last weeks, regarding how they behave in relation to market interpretation. But, with the experience i made here, I can tell you this should resolve no, unless he signs an EO that will 100% later be declared unlawful.
2025-09-05 11:49:08
Ask yourself, will the EO have as an effect to change the title "department of defense" or to add a secondary title? and then think if adding a secondary title, and thus leaving the official name as "department of defense" is the object of this market, and thus reflect the market spirit
2025-09-05 11:51:37
Press articles title choices is not what defines the resolution of this market. The object of trumps executive action is. And allowing the DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE to use "department of war" as a secondary title, is not RENAMING the department.
2025-09-05 11:55:13
Simply the effect of the EO will not be to change the name "department of defense"
2025-09-05 11:56:40
1) it's not signed 2) the only resolution source that we will need will be the EO. We will read it later in the evening.
2025-09-05 12:00:26
The object of the EO is enough. But what you are not understanding, is that the object of the EO will not be enough to reflect market criteria
2025-09-05 12:01:34
Because the intent of allowing the to use a secondary title, is not the intent of renaming the department. I know it’s difficult for you to understand, but you eventually will
2025-09-05 13:09:42
We need to wait for the EO to be published. There still a chance that trump makes an EO that is basically unlawful, but surely not 85%. And if the EO will basically authorize the use of a secondary title, most people will actually realize
2025-09-05 15:13:11
This is what polymarket used to be: https://polymarket.com/event/will-qatar-gift-trump-a-new-air-force-one-in-may
2025-09-05 15:14:12
Reward people that actually investigate and understood stuff, not news articles.
2025-09-05 15:30:22
Basically everybody thought the market was going to yes because every news article reported they accepted the gift, the market was about formal ownership tough. They clarified and resolved no. Here is the same stuff, market is about changing the department title, and he cannot do it, and most likely wont. We’ll see in some hours
2025-09-05 16:42:42
Consensus of media is almost always included in market rules, but in this kind of market primary sources are the most important thing ofc. Indeed the EO that he will sign will be enough to resolve market
2025-09-05 19:03:44
It was schedule at 2pm est but was moved to 4pm
2025-09-05 19:06:35
Yeah lmao
2025-09-05 19:17:58
[link removed]
2025-09-05 19:18:42
A White House summary of the order obtained by USA TODAY said the move will restore “Department of War” as a secondary name for the department. The order authorizes Hegseth to use secondary titles such as “Secretary of War,” “Department of War,” and “Deputy Secretary of War” in official correspondence, public communications, ceremonial contexts and more, according to the White House. If approved, executive departments and agencies must recognize and change the DOD name to “The Department of War” in internal and external communications, the White House reported
2025-09-05 19:20:21
Restore a secondary name and forcing agencies to recognize the name and use it in communications. He’s not changing the name. Because he can’t do it. How is this hard to comprehend?
2025-09-05 19:22:26
So is Trump signing an EO that changes the department name, or is he forcing DOD and other agencies to refer DOD using the secondary title?
2025-09-05 19:28:54
Exaclty, from reuters i guess
2025-09-05 19:30:24
Authorizing the use of secondary title is not changing the department name. Thats the caveat they found. So they aren’t indeed changing the name
2025-09-05 19:32:21
[link removed]
2025-09-05 19:34:23
Authorizing the use of a secondary title is the same as changing the department name?
2025-09-05 19:34:45
I’ll let polymarket answer this question.
2025-09-05 19:39:17
I like you too
2025-09-05 21:01:55
Link to the text of the EO?
2025-09-05 21:06:17
Text of the EO anybody
2025-09-05 21:28:41
Someone dispute this shit, we don’t even have the text yet
2025-09-05 21:28:46
Just propaganda
2025-09-05 22:09:00
The first eo was posted, others should follow
2025-09-05 22:12:11
Hopefully no
2025-09-05 22:29:57
No way no one is disputing this without the EO pubblished
2025-09-05 22:34:51
Yeah this is crazy
2025-09-05 22:35:03
80 seconds god damn
2025-09-05 22:42:34
Gg i’ll call it a day from pm. Nobody even read the EO. This is crazy
2025-09-05 22:43:12
Literally we don’t have the main the resolution source, we only have headlines and propaganda
2025-09-06 11:35:33
It’s the same as my name here
2025-09-07 09:32:53
Their website clearly state that robotaxi is invite only [link removed]
2025-09-07 09:57:42
The fact that a group of people has been granted access from the waiting list does not mean that Tesla is offering the service to the general public. The fact that they only have a small fleet and cannot meet demand has nothing to do with this. They are getting people to download the app in order to build a customer base before launch, but at the moment the service is not available to the general public, since you must be selected from the list.
2025-09-07 11:57:19
No way i sold 30 seconds before the airport news
2025-09-07 12:19:58
They reported 3/3 intercepted :(
2025-09-08 21:27:47
Oh shit. Missed that part
2025-09-09 06:49:44
North Korea has carried out its ninth ground test of a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile engine built with carbon fiber composites. Kim Jong Un personally attended the event, describing the achievement as one of the most strategic advances in the country’s defense modernization program. According to state media, the engine demonstrated a thrust of 1,971 kilonewtons, a major leap from the levels achieved in 2022. The use of carbon fiber makes the engine lighter and more durable, which could allow longer ranges or multiple warhead deployment.
2025-09-09 06:51:23
It was a ground test but still a missile test. They were testing an ICBM. Rules do not require the missile to be sent to the atmosphere and the supreme leader itself witnessed the test, so it’s not a minor engine test.
2025-09-09 10:27:29
To launch a test. A missile test. Nowhere in the rules specifies that the missile must be sent to atmosphere. Ground testing is just a different modality of testing
2025-09-09 12:11:41
[link removed] “North Korea has tested ICBMs that could potentially reach the U.S. mainland, including those with built-in solid propellants that are easier to move and conceal.”
2025-09-09 12:13:39
A ground-level missile test is a key stage in assessing a missile’s functionality. It verifies propulsion, guidance, and launch systems under controlled conditions, ensuring the missile performs as designed before moving to full-scale flight trials.
2025-09-09 12:16:33
This isn’t a flight test market is a missile test market. Check the rules if you are in doubt
2025-09-09 14:57:38
We only resolve stuff on vibe here. A ground level icbm test is not a missile test ? Lmao
2025-09-10 12:47:39
As if they don’t do whatever the fuck they want in this world
2025-09-10 14:36:13
[link removed]
2025-09-10 16:41:34
It is, they blowed up the boat
2025-09-10 16:44:14
us coast guard is part of us military; that was a narco vessel and 13000 pound of cocaine seized
2025-09-10 16:46:56
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US armed forces conduct a strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target in the North Western hemisphere between September 5 and September 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
2025-09-10 16:56:20
This is so stupid
2025-09-10 17:09:49
They strike Jenin in 2024 following Jaffa terrorist attack where 7 people died. It might happen again after the jerusalem bus attack
2025-09-11 07:25:10
Saw it exactly in the same moment
2025-09-11 07:51:02
The instagram picture was posted on 8 Sept 2025, 18:31:47 EDT - so after market creation
2025-09-11 15:00:28
IDF loses drone that caused sirens in Eilat - report ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF The IDF was unable to intercept the drone that caused sirens to sound in southern Israel, Ynet reported Thursday. "Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in the areas of Be’er Ora and Eilat, a suspicious aerial target was identified. The incident has concluded," the military announced in a statement.
2025-09-11 22:35:43
GG
2025-09-12 07:32:13
Basically that was the last news about it. Apparently fell in the desert but ofc no one went out looking for it
2025-09-12 09:49:29
Ynet confirms that IDF intercept missiles but lost the drone [link removed]
2025-09-12 10:27:27
This market should resolve [link removed]
2025-09-12 11:12:04
Big BS. “At any point” but then only considers the market closing ranking update but not the actual source saying that musk was indeed not first for most of the day.
2025-09-12 11:13:28
I did. I don’t think he’ll lose the position in the future. I think he did lost it in the past
2025-09-12 11:18:33
So it can’t be at any point. It must be when the dashboard is updated. That’s the contradiction
2025-09-12 21:35:23
[link removed]
2025-09-12 21:56:21
Polymarket does not issue dead markets
2025-09-12 22:01:24
Gorlami article states that the parliament was formally dissolved at 11pm. This is about election being scheduled. Plus, polymarket does not issue dead markets.
2025-09-12 22:02:08
The hell you talking about, elections are not rescheduled. And this is not a reschedule market
2025-09-12 22:05:29
"On the recommendation of the prime minister, the parliament has been dissolved. The election date is March 5, 2026," Kiran Pokharel, press advisor to the president, told AFP.
2025-09-12 22:09:49
This is bs. Literally there was a coup 2 days ago and they elected the new interim on discord. The interim was swornd today and she had a 6 month limit to call election. End up choosing the last day of those six month. This market was about her calling election immediately or not.
2025-09-12 22:40:47
The time reported on the notice issued by the governement, is the time the dissolution of parliament took effect. Is not the time the notice was issued, is not the time the announcement of new elections was made. Gorlami just saw that the dissolution of parliament was 1:15pm ET and assumed that the announcement of new election was earlier than 2pm. But again, that time has nothing to do with the announcement. This market was trading 96 because thats where it should be. The new interim PM called snap election as the market was trying to forecast. She was elected just yesterday (on discord lol) and sworn in today.
2025-09-12 22:41:51
News where literally coming out after market was created
2025-09-12 22:43:08
Clash report: 14:23 [link removed]
2025-09-12 22:45:13
And it’s the earliest i can find
2025-09-12 23:12:55
[link removed]
2025-09-13 02:17:22
On the same day there was a comprehensive operation test of the new-type active protection system against the frontal, lateral and upper attack by live firing of anti-tank missiles of various kinds. - they were testing a new defensive system for armored vehicles that’s why they were shooting anti tank missiles. But this is no way a missile test. More over if the icbm ground engine test was not.
2025-09-13 02:17:51
[link removed]
2025-09-13 02:21:08
In no place this is reported as a missile test
2025-09-13 02:26:22
This is the title of the official statement from NK gov: Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Oversees Shooting Contest between Sniper Sub-unit under Metropolitan Garrison Command and Sniper Sub-unit of Special Mobile Force of Central Security Organ
2025-09-13 02:27:54
So you want to rig this huh
2025-09-13 02:29:57
Might be a missile but it’s not a missile test
2025-09-13 02:31:12
Or provide me proof or credible consensus about a missile test
2025-09-13 11:20:53
People read the world missile and see some picture of explosions and determined this was a missile test. But unfortunately they were doing a “live-fire test of a new active protection system against anti-tank missiles” in the context of “… inspecting research on advanced armour, active protection systems, jamming equipment, and other defence technologies”
2025-09-13 17:21:23
Transgender partner? [link removed]
2025-09-13 17:41:23
Would a straight cisgendered man have a relationship with a trans person? Or is it by definition queer?
2025-09-13 17:45:00
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against any Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice between September 11” not Brazilian gov
2025-09-13 17:51:58
False
2025-09-13 18:27:57
“Confirmed” lmao
2025-09-13 18:28:16
Didn’t you had enough exit liquidity? Ob was full
2025-09-13 18:47:14
M a r k e t S p i r i t
2025-09-13 19:39:38
True
2025-09-13 20:10:24
In a 3 bedroom shared flat
2025-09-14 00:41:53
Interception mean that jet were scrambled and drone was followed until it crashed
2025-09-14 14:21:23
Anta is right. On September 12, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security added 32 entities from China, India, Iran, Singapore, Taiwan, Turkey, and the UAE to the EAR Entity List for acting contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, including AR Sales Pvt Ltd. from India and three Turkish companies that diverted [link removed] goods to Russia. These additions require licenses for all [link removed] items, with a presumption of denial, and two Turkish firms received a “footnote 3” designation as Russian Procurement Entities, extending restrictions under the Foreign Direct Product rule. This action, confirmed by Andriy Yermak of Ukraine as U.S. export restrictions targeting companies that helped Russia evade sanctions, functions as secondary sanctions against these third-party entities in line with the prediction market’s rules.
2025-09-14 16:13:53
It’s already in effect even if not published in federal register, you can check this on the doc
2025-09-14 16:41:35
The market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Russia between August 25 and September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Sanctions include tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on individuals, or other actions commonly recognized as sanctions. The rules explicitly include secondary sanctions, described as “tariffs imposed on third-party countries, firms, or individuals for continuing to trade with Russia.” If you interpret the rules in spirit, the fact that the text explicitly allowed “entities” under the secondary-tariff clause suggests they wanted to capture company level punishments for trading with Russia, which is exactly what these BIS actions are. The September 12 Entity List additions to Indian and Turkish companies, which are part of Russia’s military procurement network, penalize them for diverting [link removed] goods to Russia, effectively acting as secondary sanctions in line with the market’s intent.
2025-09-14 16:47:48
This are sanctions against entities that continues to trade with Russia, and the Department's "End-User Review Committee" ERC has determined that they qualify as Russian Procurement Entities.
2025-09-14 17:25:12
The fact that the ruling will be published on the 16th of September has no effect on this market. The ruling already went into effect the 12th and the doc can be publicly read online
2025-09-14 17:53:54
From the document: The ERC has determined that, due to their significant risk of involvement in the supply or diversion of items subject to the EAR to procurement networks for Russia's defense industry or intelligence services, two of these entities, Atempo and EB Teknoloji, qualify as Russian Procurement Entities under article 734.9(g) of the EAR and are receiving a footnote 3 designation. A footnote 3 designation subjects these entities to the Russia/Belarus-Military End User and Procurement FDP rule, detailed in article 734.9(g). These entities are added with a license requirement for all items subject to the EAR. These applications will be reviewed under a policy of denial.
2025-09-14 17:55:21
This was literally issued september 12. The legal basis for this is the EAR. What do you mean this is not new sanctions?
2025-09-14 18:03:29
I think it’s pretty nonsense that this markets trade higher than the poland airspace one
2025-09-14 18:11:33
Yes, also makes sense for the trump admin to move in such a way. It doesn't get too much attention in media but they'r are still putting pressure on Russia military procurement capabilities but in a very "low profile" way.
2025-09-14 18:12:31
Indeed most of reporting comes from Ukraine. Also the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine wrote about it on X [link removed]
2025-09-14 18:24:40
This are sanction agains recognized Russian military procurement entities. And third countries entities are foreseen by ruleset
2025-09-14 18:26:43
We have official US gov docs, We have credible reporting stating "The new sanctions from Donald Trump's team will target giants that have supplied goods to the aggressor country, Russia."
2025-09-14 18:27:13
Are we stupid or are this sanctions against third countries entities ?
2025-09-14 18:28:36
This sanction are directly targeting Russian military procurement infrastructure. I'm not stating this, is literally written on the Department of Commerce document.
2025-09-14 19:53:24
In none of the document there is reference to pre-existing sanction
2025-09-14 20:35:51
I’m trading. That’s the most stupid question you can ask on this platform
2025-09-14 20:40:06
[link removed] Is it?
2025-09-14 20:55:53
The US Department of Commerce has published a list of companies that will be subject to a virtually complete ban on exporting goods to the United States. The new sanctions from Donald Trump's team will target giants that have supplied goods to the aggressor country, Russia.
2025-09-14 20:56:41
The American authorities draw attention to the fact that the mentioned companies supplied the needs of the Russian military-industrial complex. Moreover, it is noted that they supplied American products without the necessary permits.
2025-09-14 20:56:54
“Moreover”
2025-09-14 21:02:15
[link removed]
2025-09-14 21:08:31
[link removed]
2025-09-14 21:52:54
The US Department of Commerce announced sanctions against companies aiding Russia in evading restrictions. Export controls target 23 firms from China, three from Turkey, two from the UAE, and one each from India, Singapore, and Taiwan. The department claims some supplied technology to Russian military end-users, while others redirected components with concealed true recipients. - the person stating this is a PHD in political science and writing articles for bloomberg and euronews. Nobody is rulecucking [link removed]
2025-09-14 22:06:05
So by that logic, no new punishments for criminals until we invent brand-new types of punishment? Expanding sanctions to new actors is both enforcement and imposition the two can’t really be separated.
2025-09-14 22:10:00
So what, the EU drops its 19th sanctions package and it doesn’t count just because earlier ones already hit Russia’s weapons? Every new package adds fresh limits, and if we followed that logic nothing after the first round would ever count.
2025-09-14 22:11:44
If the market only counted totally new categories of sanctions, then by that logic the EU’s 2nd through 19th sanctions packages wouldn’t qualify either. In reality, every time new companies or sectors are restricted, that’s imposing more sanctions even if it’s also enforcing the old ones. Enforcement and imposition aren’t cleanly separate; actions like these do both at once.
2025-09-14 22:13:51
Every time new companies or sectors are restricted, like with the U.S. Entity List additions, that counts as imposing more sanctions, even if it also enforces old ones, and nowhere in the official documents are prior sanctions cited as the legal basis for these entries; enforcement and imposition aren’t cleanly separate, so the market should recognize these actions as new sanctions.
2025-09-14 22:18:06
They are not indeed, and here they are not enforcing sanctions, they are imposing it
2025-09-14 22:19:59
There are already companies subject to sanctions, but these companies were not, so by definition, new sanctions were imposed on them.
2025-09-14 22:29:45
So taxing the imports of an entity should qualify but no letting them import at all should not?
2025-09-14 22:30:18
U rightfully deleted your message
2025-09-14 22:30:52
Again, So taxing the imports of an entity should qualify but no letting them import at all should not?
2025-09-14 22:54:35
[link removed]
2025-09-15 05:55:11
Wtf of an argument is this
2025-09-15 06:40:43
Congrats on discovering that the Entity List exists and was created in 1997. Everyone here already knows that, the real question is how its use now counts as new sanctions, not a history lesson on export controls. By your logic, Trump’s tariffs wouldn’t count as tariffs either since they’re based on the IEEPA from 1977.
2025-09-15 06:56:16
23 out 32 entries are chinese and they believe to be sanctions. [link removed].cn/a/202509/13/[link removed]
2025-09-15 07:03:19
China ministry of commerce: “ "What is the U.S.'s intention in imposing sanctions on Chinese companies at this time?" the ministry said.” - Reuters [link removed]
2025-09-15 07:10:09
Looks what type of sanction zelensky believe should be imposed (and were) [link removed]
2025-09-15 07:16:48
Zelensky asking for sanctions on companies supplying russia; it happens; these are not sanction according to polymarket
2025-09-16 05:43:30
last entry in entity list was june 2023
2025-09-16 11:10:15
Now the act is officially considered “passed” as rule require
2025-09-16 11:14:55
The biden administration did exactly this in 2022. Adding entries to entity list right targeting russian military procurement and told the world they were imposing sanction. Now, the only difference is the Trump administration has no interest in spreading the word about this. Now, if you think that this is something that happens often. The last entry on entity list was made in June 2023 - edit, misspelled some shit
2025-09-16 11:23:01
More than minors, they did not sensationalized as the last administration did. Ukrainians tough, noticed this act very well.
2025-09-16 11:25:08
The publication of a BIS rule in the Federal Register is an official act of the executive branch, because under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), rules published in the Federal Register carry legal force once finalized. While it is not an executive order, it is a duly promulgated regulation with binding effect, backed by statutory authority (e.g., the Export Control Reform Act of 2018).
2025-09-16 13:00:59
Where have you been in the last 40 days
2025-09-16 17:08:11
Everyone on yes side should thanks Anta for finding the BIS doc 2 days before being published on the federal register.
2025-09-17 08:46:00
Did he died or you forgot we have been seeing him twice a week for basically the last month
2025-09-17 22:56:32
When listening back to the recording at 0.6x speed, it is clear that Powell did not fully pronounce the word “inflation,” as the final n sound is absent. What he actually intended to say is uncertain; he could have been starting “inflation” or moving into “inflationary effect,” but since the full word was never completed, we cannot know for sure.
2025-09-18 00:51:35
Why in the world tr@nc1pt cannot be written in comments?
2025-09-18 07:49:34
Was the word inflation pronounced or not in its entirety?
2025-09-18 07:50:21
Because it’s not a question of what he meant, is a question of wether he did say the whole word
2025-09-18 08:34:25
No doubt the count is 49 plus the controversial one. But what also is not in doubt for me is that the word was not finished, and the tr4nscr1pt cannot replace the actual audio. The object of the tr4nscr1pt is not to identify vocals and consonant.
2025-09-18 10:57:39
The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.
2025-09-18 11:21:11
The text should not override the audio, because one is raw data and the other just makes a sense of it. I trust my ear and i heard no N in the word inflation. Should I buy yes on the premises that since price is unfavourable i should not trust my own judgement, even if wrong?
2025-09-18 11:37:47
A bulletin board rules update has been posted to the market: "Will Trump say "Venezuela" 3 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?" https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-say-venezuela-3-or-more-times-during-arizona-rally-on-october-13 Only full mentions of the term "Venezuela" will count toward this market's resolution. Trump stated "Venezue-" in this rally, which does not qualify. 2024-10-14 11:54:05
2025-09-18 11:44:17
[link removed] 10:18 "Venezuelan" - 22:21 "Venezuela" - 1:22:24 "Venezuelan"
2025-09-18 11:44:45
Stoppes on venezue like powell stopped on inflatio
2025-09-18 11:45:27
On the arizona rally transcrip were reporting venezuela 3 times
2025-09-18 12:19:03
Don’t bother me
2025-09-18 12:20:48
Bro is daltonic and illiterate. Did not know which buttons to click
2025-09-18 18:25:25
This is sanction month guys
2025-09-18 18:25:31
I changed my mind
2025-09-18 18:32:27
Where are you joe :(
2025-09-19 11:12:17
They accepted the draft but need to pass in the commission, last package were passed after 2 weeks from draft. Let’s gamble
2025-09-19 11:16:08
Hello ana
2025-09-20 00:15:21
No date?
2025-09-20 00:19:48
On the second attack he posted “This morning i ordered”. Here he said nothing, what are the chance this attack was carried that same day? On the 15 before market creation?
2025-09-20 00:25:10
[link removed]
2025-09-20 00:45:33
On the 15 morning trump posted on truth “this morning i ordered…” and the video of the boat is released. The next morning this market is created, and trump release a statement to a reporter where he said “it’s actually 3 boat, you only saw two”. This means that the strike already happened before market creation and most likely the two boat were striked on the same morning.
2025-09-20 00:45:59
Truth post: [link removed]
2025-09-20 00:46:48
Statement to reporter: [link removed]
2025-09-20 00:50:31
They just declassified the video today
2025-09-20 10:02:15
Yay
2025-09-20 10:17:52
The boat must be strike during market period, it was not, you can check previous comments to understand why
2025-09-20 15:18:37
Jammy devo I already explained why this is not new, no matter when the video gets declassified, it matter when the strike happened
2025-09-20 15:26:03
Axios article is totally incorrect. It says that trump stated that they carried the attack on friday, and as a source they report the truth post where he does not say that. Trump stated on the 16th morning that the strike already happened but the video was not declassified.
2025-09-20 15:26:49
Classic Barak Ravid bullshit. He’s probably trading here
2025-09-20 15:27:11
The president of the USA himself said that the strike already happened
2025-09-20 15:29:38
Trump truth post do not report a date because himself said the strike happened already on 16 morning. They are sharing the videos one by one to make it look like they are striking boat every week but thats false
2025-09-20 15:30:00
Indeed they never never confirmed the strike happened on Friday.
2025-09-20 15:32:49
Jammydevo nowhere in what you linked is says something about the strike happening on Friday. You are a retard
2025-09-20 15:33:00
Or worse a liar
2025-09-20 15:43:53
Yeah thank god market resolves on consensus and not Barak bullshits, jammy go back scrolling tiktok you idiot
2025-09-20 15:56:11
[link removed] Leavitt confirming is the third successful strike on a boat, confirming trump statement made on Tuesday morning where he said that they already striked 3 boats. You are being fooled by barak ravid bullshit and WH propaganda
2025-09-20 15:58:25
Leavitt confirmation to trump statement on Tuesday leaves no doubt about the third boat being strike before market creation. I leave both link in the comments down below. The market is a No
2025-09-20 16:00:19
Leavitt confirmation to Trump statement: [link removed]
2025-09-20 16:00:41
Trump statement: [link removed]
2025-09-20 16:04:07
On of the best OSINT page on X already noticed this yesterday night when video was declassified: [link removed]
2025-09-20 16:04:40
You literally have no reading skills
2025-09-20 16:17:38
You must be some scammy user alt, i wonder who
2025-09-20 16:50:30
Because the video released on friday is of a strike carried before market creation
2025-09-20 17:18:18
On September 15th, Trump reported that in the morning he had ordered an attack against a cartel boat ([link removed] The day after, September 16th the morning this market was created Trump released a statement to reporters claiming We actually destroyed three boats, but you only saw two ([link removed] On Friday the 19th, he made a new post on Truth Social, where, without saying when, another cartel boat was struck ([link removed] OsintDefender, one of the best OSINT pages on X, immediately noticed that the video is most likely the one of the third boat Trump referenced to reporters on Tuesday the 16th ([link removed] Today, the evening of September 20th, Leavitt confirmed on Fox News that the video showcases the third cartel boat struck by the government, thus confirming that this is the boat Trump was referring to on Tuesday morning ([link removed] Hence, no new boat has been struck after the creation of this market, we only have a newly declassified video.
2025-09-21 01:34:50
The ruleset screaming dispute
2025-09-21 16:50:23
Well fuck
2025-09-21 18:52:30
The Erem News article reports that a US drone carried out a double strike on Wednesday evening targeting a gathering of hardline Al-Qaeda militants in a village in Shabwa province, southeastern Yemen. According to informed Yemeni sources cited by the outlet, the first missile hit the militant assembly, and a second strike targeted a vehicle that left the site moments later. Initial reports indicated several casualties among the targeted individuals, though the organization reportedly maintained strict secrecy to prevent information leaks. Erem News, an independent Abu Dhabi-based news agency, reached out to local sources to verify the operation, providing an early and locally informed account of the incident. [link removed]
2025-09-21 19:01:53
Mohammed Faisal is a researcher and journalist specializing in radical Islamic movements. He has written numerous stories, articles, and exclusive reports for Akhbar Al Aan, which have gained widespread readership and circulation. Akhbar Al Aan is a pan-Arab news network based in the United Arab Emirates. On September 17, he reported the following: “According to local sources in Shabwa, a US drone targeted a gathering of Al-Qaeda members in one of the valleys of Khoura in the Lower Markha district. Sources close to the family of Mohammed Khamees bin Arfaj Al-Dahmi reported that he was killed in the airstrike. It is noted that Al-Dahmi’s father was a prominent leader in the organization. The group has maintained strict secrecy about the incident to this day.” [link removed]
2025-09-21 19:03:57
So, this can and should be considered to be reliable sources. Plus, many local yemen news agencies are reporting the strike to have been carried by US drones. So definitely have a consensus on it. But moreover, this is one of the few market where the resolution sources is not foreseen by market rule, so why should this not resolve to yes?
2025-09-22 09:26:27
Thank you but i bought at my max risk capacity around 25.
2025-09-22 10:07:20
Yeah nothing against you, we just challenge our ideas here.
2025-09-22 11:38:07
ttps://[link removed] Here i’ve put all the sources regarding the strike. It did happen and the rules do not require US gov to acknowledge the strike. This is pretty straight forward, and proposable.
2025-09-22 11:46:33
Yeah i remember seeing the article, i think i’ve lost when copy pasting
2025-09-22 12:15:59
Oh no, not barak ravid again
2025-09-22 18:04:18
So my doubt is, if they revoked is wife visa should it had count? So if they sanction his wife company should it count? To which level you can associate sanctioning his wife to sanctioning a justice or the supreme court? I think that reuters article put it clearly, the us sanctioned moares wife, they did not touch him
2025-09-22 18:05:16
Ps His not legally associated with the company.
2025-09-22 18:05:26
And please forgive my broken english
2025-09-22 18:08:31
In a market about individual sanctions like this, targeting his wife or the company she own, which in no way is legally associated to Moares, should not be the same as sanctioning Moares as an individual, as rules required.
2025-09-22 18:56:30
You should not ask me in the first place. Make your own ideas
2025-09-22 23:55:01
[link removed] This is the correct pastebin with the Al Ain missing article included.
2025-09-22 23:58:06
There is consensus, There is independent reporting, There are names of victims, There are NO conflicting articles.
2025-09-23 01:11:52
Houthis and AQAP are fighting each other for the control of the Sahbwa and Bayda governorate. Why should the US strike on AQAP members be of any harm to houthis and thus putting the ceasefire at risk?
2025-09-23 01:22:11
If you miss to find a motivation on the US strike on Al-Qaeda , maybe the memo issued by the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center on September 19 might help you. “The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center said on Friday that recent calls by al Qaeda for attacks against the United States showed the group's enduring threat to the country. Al Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) "are likely seeking to leverage their media publications and global conflicts, particularly where there is U.S. support or military involvement, to inspire potential attackers," it said in a memo to law enforcement.” -Reuters
2025-09-23 01:22:40
[link removed]
2025-09-23 11:15:22
First, evertything you quoted adhere to reality. Go check what the NGOs and Human right organisation report about what's going on in the field. Second, you clearly have no clue of what Independent source mean.
2025-09-23 11:33:41
And thats literally the last sentence of the article, which is an analysis of the ground offense in gaza city
2025-09-23 16:18:59
So according to No's holder since no Western news outlet decided to report the news it must have not happened.
2025-09-23 16:33:46
For the record. If you hold No please go check this sources, and you tell me if you think this must be considered unreliable [link removed] - [link removed] - [link removed] - [link removed]
2025-09-23 16:38:21
Just clean the order book up to 25c sir
2025-09-23 16:39:57
On october
2025-09-23 21:21:06
Well general assembly high level week
2025-09-23 21:22:50
I smell skepticism here
2025-09-25 16:47:50
You make me hard
2025-09-25 16:56:30
What a time to be alive
2025-09-25 20:14:15
emotions
2025-09-28 17:03:40
I would not price this 2c since investigation is still ongoing
2025-09-28 17:08:12
Not talking about 9-10 of semptember
2025-09-29 07:52:34
Ukranian strike bro? Lmao. Polish foreign ministry spokeperson said it’s either debris or small caliber projectile coming from cluster bomb. They did not confirm which one of the two tough
2025-09-29 09:07:19
oh no!
2025-09-29 09:27:12
The measures reintroduced today include both those adopted by the UN Security Council since 2006 with successive UNSC resolutions and automatically transposed into EU law, and EU autonomous measures. They concern: 1. travel bans for individuals, asset freezes for individuals and entities and, in line with this, the prohibition on making funds or economic resources available to those listed 2. economic and financial sanctions, covering the trade, financial and transport sectors.
2025-09-29 09:27:19
[link removed].eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/29/iran-sanctions-snapback-council-reimposes-restrictive-measures/pdf/
2025-09-29 09:28:28
They clearly said they imposed the measures but according to you they did not reintroduced the measure lmao. At least are you aware that the legislative instrument of the EU council is called "decision".
2025-09-29 09:28:39
Yall on crack for real
2025-09-29 09:36:15
Lmao
2025-09-29 09:36:28
[link removed]
2025-09-29 09:46:52
I’m busy working and i cannot loose time with your bullshit so i sold. This is a clear yes. For all the “no new sanction” idiots, go check US sanction russia market. Old instrument new sanction. GG
2025-09-29 09:53:34
How tf did you made 3k
2025-09-29 19:19:17
Not new sanction guys
2025-09-29 19:29:26
A good 60/40 for october 31
2025-09-29 20:05:54
Imaging ruining the greatest day in civilization because of a stupid government shutdown
2025-09-29 20:41:43
They are going to pass the 10 day CR
2025-09-29 20:48:32
[link removed]
2025-09-30 12:04:34
I still have to see a sell order from any of them, and they currently sit on 4 digits profit
2025-09-30 12:10:41
I see you are not so much into yemen
2025-09-30 14:19:04
Interception postponed
2025-09-30 14:43:17
I think we can propose
2025-09-30 15:14:43
Greta said tonight
2025-09-30 15:30:31
An easy 177k on the Office of personnel website declaring a shutdown by October 1 11:59 pm, why not
2025-09-30 17:07:02
Top no holder is killing the yes price
2025-09-30 17:09:42
Well the psycopath buying no up to 90c realized this might be degenerate and removed his orders
2025-09-30 18:36:20
[link removed] W research
2025-09-30 18:38:57
The google doc has basically all the information needed to understand how the market should resolve, although that might differ to how reality is dealt with here
2025-09-30 18:39:43
T H I S
2025-09-30 18:54:56
Imagine risking 50k bond on this
2025-09-30 19:18:48
Not even that, they clarified they count in another market
2025-09-30 19:20:44
“Consensus of credible” reporting is the escape goat pm staff use to cover the bullshit they keep doing over and over
2025-09-30 21:39:24
Each federal agency develops its own shutdown plan. The plans outline which agency workers would stay on the job during a shutdown and which would be furloughed.
2025-10-03 18:43:43
Whats his name now?
2025-10-04 11:43:51
Is he awake?
2025-10-04 11:44:03
Or is he WOKE
2025-10-05 23:16:07
Bro he quitted after going +20k to -6k in a 24h timespan? If I'm remember correctly
2025-10-06 13:20:09
Even if it’s a over simplified analysis, i don’t think this is too distant to how Trump actually thinks
2025-10-06 15:47:18
Mine was not
2025-10-06 17:39:14
“There are no boats, even fishing boats”
2025-10-06 22:05:37
Urgent | Al Jazeera sources: Hamas delegation confirmed to mediators that the continuation of the bombing in Gaza poses a challenge to the release of the prisoners.
2025-10-06 22:06:41
Urgent | Al Jazeera sources: Hamas delegation confirmed to mediators that the continuation of the bombing in Gaza poses a challenge to the release of the prisoners.
2025-10-06 22:13:03
I doubt about the real soon
2025-10-07 17:59:32
Second day gone, no cheesefire, hamas stuck to its requests
2025-10-07 19:02:57
Axios reports President Trump huddled Tuesday with his national security team before envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff departed for Sharm el-Sheikh to join Gaza ceasefire talks. Trump pressed for a deal within days to free captives and end the two-year war, sources told Axios. In the room were VP JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others, as Kushner and Witkoff briefed on messages from Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators. U.S. officials said they will not leave Egypt without an agreement. Trump also sent a letter to Israeli hostage families, vowing he is “personally committed” to ending the war.
2025-10-08 11:19:09
Nobel and eurovision bruh? seriously?
2025-10-08 11:22:56
Sources reported that there are outstanding issues between the negotiators in Sharm el-Sheikh, with Hamas demanding the release of elite members as part of the prisoner swap deal and six leaders, including Marwan Barghouti and Ahmed Saadat. Hamas also demands an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas to hand over the prisoners and bodies, and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not return to the war after the prisoners are handed over. The maps of the Israeli withdrawal during the stages of the agreement are also pending issues.
2025-10-08 11:56:03
I am not into anal no more
2025-10-08 15:33:59
INSHALLAH
2025-10-08 15:42:32
INSHALLAH
2025-10-08 16:37:10
"Israel state news, citing a source: The deal is closed and completed."
2025-10-08 17:47:10
Gaza commentator Iyad al-Qara, who is affiliated with Hamas: "The positive indications point to an agreement being close, but the withdrawal maps and the list of prisoners remain unresolved. The atmosphere is positive, but Israel is trying at this moment According to him, "There was an exchange of information between the parties regarding the issue of prisoners. According to the American announcement, 240 prisoners serving life sentences, including leaders, and 1,700 prisoners from Gaza are to be released. However, Israel is delaying reaching an agreement. The Palestinian delegation insists on the release of all prisoners detained since October 7."
2025-10-08 18:09:06
Ok guys, enough circle jerking. Back to fair odds now
2025-10-08 18:29:01
Mediators gave both parties a deadline to reach an agreement before friday morning. Withdraw map and prisoners name remain an unresolved dispute according to israeli media
2025-10-08 18:59:17
How are 10oct yes holder not dumping on this price is insane
2025-10-08 19:26:23
My first ever traded market here was wether israel would have invaded gaza before oct 31 2023. I would like to let that sink in here. Great journey on this platform
2025-10-08 19:27:04
Sorry if i’m a bit sentimental in this critical hours :’(
2025-10-08 19:50:45
Trump did not look so convinced
2025-10-08 21:04:05
Ceasefire announcement tomorrow + 72h = Trump Sunday flying to egypt
2025-10-08 21:21:05
Well I think that whoever dived on this before cannot deny things are definitely moving fast
2025-10-08 21:22:12
"publicly announced and mutually agreed" deal before friday morning is kinda most likely at this point
2025-10-08 21:30:12
WOW
2025-10-08 21:40:06
WOW
2025-10-08 21:49:53
This is really the fog of media
2025-10-08 22:38:02
WELL WELL WELL
2025-10-08 22:41:48
A framework deal qualify for this marker right?
2025-10-08 22:53:35
GG Trump announced it, bibi will follow
2025-10-08 22:54:26
I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2025-10-08 22:59:10
How would you ever think trump would post that HAMAS and ISRAEL AGREED to the deal without coordinating with bibi?
2025-10-08 23:00:19
Orange guys just wanted to be the first to spread the word
2025-10-08 23:17:47
Don’t forget its 2 am in israel, an official announcement may come tomorrow morning
2025-10-08 23:23:00
GG oct 9
2025-10-08 23:27:11
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: A great day for Israel. Tomorrow, I will convene the government to approve the agreement and bring all our dear hostages home. I thank the heroic IDF soldiers and all the security forces, whose courage and sacrifice have brought us to this day. I express my heartfelt gratitude to President Trump and his team for their commitment to this sacred mission of freeing our hostages. With God's help, together we will continue to achieve all our goals and expand peace with our neighbors. I.E tomorrow 9 oct
2025-10-08 23:28:49
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
2025-10-08 23:30:06
It’s not about signing, it’s about announcing it, and bibi needs approval from cabinet, hence he will not announce until cabinet approves it
2025-10-08 23:33:15
You are indeed dumb and cooked
2025-10-08 23:36:35
Yep, not today
2025-10-08 23:36:45
They did not toug
2025-10-08 23:38:22
“OFFCIAL ANNOUNCMENT” now read bibi words and tell me that’s it please. He know he need cabinet approval to be official so how the hell can he announce it already?
2025-10-09 11:51:42
He won
2025-10-10 12:26:42
Will at least one living hostage be freed in the 48h previous to Trump’s arrival in israel? Will he want to go speak at the knesset with living hostages freed or not? That’s the real question in this market. Dead hostages release is a bit more complex, but the living ones can be easily freed in the next 48h
2025-10-10 12:29:42
Hamas deadline is monday at 11:59pm; market deadline is monday 7am (both israel time)
2025-10-10 12:35:53
I’m hamas, send me dm
2025-10-10 15:31:11
Trump skipping SK trip then? Why the hell would he go to APEC otherwise?
2025-10-10 22:38:24
Trump never cancelled a meeting that was never confirmed by china?
2025-10-11 10:32:38
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a one-night, two-day visit to South Korea starting Oct. 29, ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to take place in Gyeongju on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. If this plan is finalized, Trump would likely miss the main event of the summit, which is being hosted this year by South Korea
2025-10-11 10:34:54
On Tuesday, Trump confirmed his visit in remarks at the White House, saying, "I will meet Xi in Korea." Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the Victory Day parade event held in Beijing on Sept. 3. However, under the current draft schedule, Trump would depart before the official APEC summit begins on Oct. 31. That means he would skip the main multilateral event hosted by South Korea, reducing his trip to a one-point visit for talks with Xi.
2025-10-11 10:37:08
This was before is rant on Xi and the 100% tariff. Xi, that has never confirmed this meeting, will most likely not be willing to meet with trump.
2025-10-11 10:38:45
4 days after Trump announcement that he is meeting Xi, this is what the US ambassador in China said: A highly anticipated meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is more likely to take place next year than this fall, U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue said Tuesday.
2025-10-11 12:55:55
Indeed this was not a lock from the beginning
2025-10-11 14:48:17
President Xi himself is selling shares… that’s something to take into account imo
2025-10-11 15:17:28
It's crazy that we have his excellency CCP chairman himself trading here...
2025-10-11 17:50:49
No details from Witkoff about a possible release tomorrow
2025-10-12 01:47:00
Lmao
2025-10-12 13:31:46
IDK but all, but if they begin between 4-6am ANY hostage will definitely be on a red-cross car by that time
2025-10-12 13:32:00
Maybe even all of them if start is 4am
2025-10-12 13:40:38
It will be a matter of seconds to put them in redcross car btw
2025-10-12 14:26:21
Bruh if red cross say “we got em” before 7am this shoots up to 99c don’t worry
2025-10-12 14:27:13
NFT profile pic; opinion rejected
2025-10-12 15:35:52
How do you know? From the profile picture look like is him…
2025-10-13 10:13:42
Most likely just burnt 25$ but people are making claims issa won? Idk, will biya recognize this result?
2025-10-13 17:47:18
Bin salman was not present in egypt… only foreign minister was
2025-10-13 18:22:52
This guy will not even live enough to complete half of his term. Nobody will be willing to support rigging the election results
2025-10-13 23:54:44
This will be a very interesting market in the coming days
2025-10-14 12:50:02
FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-14 19:50:13
FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-14 20:04:38
FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-14 20:11:30
Tensions at Kousseri Court: FSNC Supporters Denounce “Tampered” Polling Reports in Favor of the CPDM A tense atmosphere reigned on Tuesday at the Kousseri Court, where supporters of the National Salvation Front of Cameroon (FSNC) stormed the office of the court president. They accuse an ELECAM municipal officer, Mr. Makary, of transporting falsified polling reports that differ from those held by the party’s polling agents representing Issa Tchiroma Bakary. The protesters denounce what they describe as an open attempt to manipulate election results in favor of the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM). In response to the growing unrest, the courthouse has been placed under total blockade by security forces. Tension remains high in Kousseri as FSNC supporters demand the restoration of the “real polling reports” from the ballot boxes. Our teams are on site for further updates.
2025-10-14 20:15:00
The Cameroon Bar Association has asked ELECAM and the Constitutional Council to respect the will of Cameroonians by demonstrating integrity and transparency in the handling of the 2025 election results. In a statement signed by the Bar President, Mbah Eric Mbah, the Association urged the two institutions to “demonstrate the highest sense of republican duty, integrity, and transparency in handling the electoral process,” stressing that the will of the Cameroonian people “must not only be heard but fully respected.” The Bar, which described itself as a “watchdog of the rule of law and defender of civil liberties,” condemned acts of post-voting violence reported in the North Region, where a Gendarmerie truck was burnt during clashes with the population on Sunday evening. Battonnier Mbah expressed “deep concern about these excesses” and denounced “intimidating pronouncements, including those emanating from institutional authorities, as well as toxic publications observed on various media channels and social media platforms,” warning that such actions “threaten peace and undermine public confidence in democratic governance.”
2025-10-14 20:24:39
Monsieur macron pls do something :(
2025-10-15 16:42:41
You lack to comprehend whats going on: [link removed]
2025-10-15 18:05:01
People aren’t taking this seriously, so let me give you a brief overview of what’s going on. On October 12th, Cameroon held elections to choose its next president, who will serve a seven-year term. The incumbent, Paul Biya, is 92 years old and has ruled the country for 43 years. Since independence from France, Cameroon has had only two presidents. The main opposition leader, Issa Tchiroma, appears to be leading decisively in the current elections, with polls showing him at around 75-80% of the vote. However, after the election, numerous reports have emerged of officials attempting to rig the results, prompting many of Issa’s supporters to supervise vote counting across the country. Issa declared victory 24 hours after the election, and nearly all other opposition parties have congratulated him.
2025-10-15 18:05:09
Many observers note that public support for Issa is overwhelming, while Biya’s grip on power has weakened significantly. This sets Cameroon on two possible paths: a peaceful transition of power, where Issa’s victory is recognized by ELECAM (Cameroon’s electoral body) and Biya steps down voluntarily, similar to what happened in Gabon in 2023; or a contested election, where Biya refuses to concede despite likely receiving less than 20% of the vote, leading to civil unrest and violence, all for him to remain in power for another 6 to 18 months. Many experts are closely monitoring the situation, viewing it as the best opportunity Cameroon has ever had to end Biya’s four-decade rule. So if you ask me, 15 cents looks like a great price for a peaceful power transition, especially considering what happened in Gabon in 2023 and in Madagascar couple of days ago and Nepal.
2025-10-15 18:06:16
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:06:32
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:07:01
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:07:17
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:07:37
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:10:02
[link removed]
2025-10-15 18:26:54
Plus this is a neg risk market so you can [link removed] biya No's and Issa Yes
2025-10-15 18:34:17
[link removed] A senior member of the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) - Biya Party - in the North West Region, Maurice Tiibam Kube, has tendered his resignation,
2025-10-15 18:48:53
You have opposition leader congratulating to Issa and Biya party member resining. Draw your own conclusion from it
2025-10-15 18:49:30
FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-15 23:20:54
FREE CAMEROON✊
2025-10-16 08:03:51
Bani suhaila was attacked yesterday before market creation; aja reporting that 2 people are in critical condition does not mean that the attack was carried during market timeframe
2025-10-16 08:04:06
Plus aja report is the only report
2025-10-16 11:37:26
In the case this election is contested, the final decision of the Constitutional Council of Cameroon will be this market's resolution source.
2025-10-16 11:38:30
Biya will be dead by the time the constitutional council issues a decision
2025-10-16 12:55:47
FREE PRESS✊
2025-10-16 16:44:47
He said they just spoked at the phone, I was wrong
2025-10-16 17:16:22
Yeah cause he mentioned that in his speech at the peace summit in egypt.
2025-10-16 17:45:48
So aljazeera reported that a drone killed two people this morning. What is exactly the reason this is trading at 50c except nobody already proposed?
2025-10-16 17:47:10
[link removed]
2025-10-17 16:33:13
GENA
2025-10-17 18:47:20
Read the post maybe? Thats lebanon lmao
2025-10-17 19:07:00
Qualifying and non qualifying air attacks can be carried from air, so i wouldn’t treat this as a bond honestly
2025-10-17 19:35:55
I see reports of artillery shells; really hard to tell if qualifying strike since the only detail is “from air” also artillery round comes struck them from air
2025-10-17 19:42:36
The attack was likely in Bani suheila, were IDF targeted hamas terrorist with artillery fire
2025-10-17 20:06:22
GM
2025-10-17 20:24:13
I can already see polymarket clarification
2025-10-17 21:31:25
Artillery
2025-10-17 21:37:45
Maybe; but see many report of artillery fire and nothing about drones
2025-10-18 15:20:28
Prince andrew as any other member of the royal family cannot relinquish his title. He can state that he will stop using it, but the title can be removed only by parliament or by the monarch.
2025-10-18 15:21:04
Prince andrew is still the duke of york
2025-10-18 17:12:20
Before Japan
2025-10-19 13:50:53
[link removed]
2025-10-20 15:10:21
[link removed]
2025-10-20 16:55:32
Lula market is top tier retarted
2025-10-20 17:12:36
Von der Leyen just gave Fico what he wanted. [link removed]
2025-10-20 18:42:17
The IDF denied this. At first I missed it because instead of Tuffah they wrote Shajaiyah, which is closer to Yellow line than Tuffah. Basically IDF admitted the incident but they opened fire, no airstrike was carried. [link removed]
2025-10-20 18:45:05
You wrote “gunmen” opened fire and proceed to buy yes?
2025-10-20 19:10:13
Oh so IDF actually admitted an airstrike?
2025-10-20 19:10:27
Or are we going to resolve this market on conflicting reports
2025-10-20 19:10:45
A cloud photo posted by skynews lmao
2025-10-20 19:28:47
Provide me source please
2025-10-20 19:38:40
In the case this election is contested, the final decision of the Constitutional Council of Cameroon will be this market's resolution source.
2025-10-20 19:39:15
STAY STRONG. DON’T LET THEM PROPOSE. FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-21 05:13:41
Retarted because it was trading 50c after trump confirmation
2025-10-21 06:21:43
Not in europe
2025-10-21 06:56:59
You may be right
2025-10-21 16:56:19
[link removed]
2025-10-21 18:55:08
PEOPLE RIOTING!!!. FREE CAMEROON!!!
2025-10-22 05:23:48
[link removed] Tchiroma got 60%
2025-10-22 05:32:24
It’s crazy that i have never seen a side pushing a google doc win
2025-10-23 06:35:56
Imagine traffickers indexing their compensation for the trip to the risk calculated by this market
2025-10-23 18:47:25
FREE CAMEROON
2025-10-23 21:29:49
CARALHO
2025-10-23 23:30:07
We have al jazeera and the times of israel reporting “ The IDF says it carried out a drone strike against a Palestinian terror operative who crossed the Yellow Line to which the military withdrew under the terms of the current ceasefire in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis today.”
2025-10-23 23:30:26
[link removed]
2025-10-23 23:30:38
[link removed]
2025-10-23 23:46:49
Times of israel is citing the idf officials (primary resolution source) saying that a strike occured trough the use of drones, which qualifies for this market. I don’t see why this should not go yes. Someone please do a bank transfer to cocobambino
2025-10-23 23:55:16
If you think this happened before 00:01am et; even tough reported at 8:00am et, you can easily dispute the market and provide proof about this. We have an article with a qualifying strike occuring during valid timeframe.
2025-10-23 23:58:25
THIS IS FOR YOU COCO
2025-10-23 23:58:50
MAY YOU AND YOUR GOOGLE DOC REST IN PEACE
2025-10-24 00:09:54
Oct20 market resolved on the exact same report by the times of israel, issued 1 hour later than today’s one [link removed]
2025-10-24 00:16:36
LINKKKKKKSSSSSS SOURCESSSSSS
2025-10-24 12:18:06
bUt It cOuLd hAvE hApPeNeD bEfOrE 7 Am
2025-10-24 13:44:47
From my experience I would wait a little before bonding this
2025-10-24 13:49:15
CLEARLY A FISHING BOAT
2025-10-24 14:09:01
Lmao they’ve been bombing gaza for days since ceasfire
2025-10-24 15:58:50
Trump released a statement to journalist days before sharing the video of the attack saying that it was carried. It was me that brough that to the attention of the market. Trust me, sell your no's
2025-10-24 16:06:23
What the hell of a news is for cnn the 21th palestinian killed because of getting to close to yellow line explain me
2025-10-24 16:15:28
[link removed]
2025-10-24 16:16:12
Al jazeera; time of israel; France 24 reporting a drone strike based on Al nasser and IDF reports, carried on October 23
2025-10-24 16:33:23
Protip for polymarket: ignore any tip from people with several thousands of negative pnl
2025-10-24 16:48:36
[link removed] Times of israel war reporter at 8am Eastern Time
2025-10-24 16:53:54
If this resolve no this market really has no reason to exist. Are we trying to foresee wether a strike will occur/has occurred or are we here to speculate about a reporter saying "earlier" meaning MORE THAN 8 HOURS before. This is ridiculous.
2025-10-24 16:58:14
https://t. me/QudsN/630281 HAMAS STATEMENT AT 4:20 am ET
2025-10-24 17:00:01
Urgent | Our correspondent: One martyr in an Israeli airstrike on the town of Bani Suhailah, east of Khan Yunis.
2025-10-24 17:00:07
4:20 am
2025-10-24 17:00:47
you have 0 dollar ever traded at your name so gtfo pwease an thank you
2025-10-24 17:14:45
lol
2025-10-24 17:20:14
Ofc because who the fuck cares honestly? Is the 15th incident like this
2025-10-24 17:21:01
Only palestinians and israeli will report on this + FRANCE 24 CITING AFP COLLECTING STATEMENTS FROM IDF OFFICIALS
2025-10-24 17:29:19
Again, ALJAZEERA, TIMES OF ISRAEL and FRANCE 24 reporting on a DRONE STRIKE occuring on OCTOBER 23 in Bani suheila QUOTING both AL NASSER HOSPITAL and IDF OFFICIALS. Nobody provided a single piece of reporting about this incident with a timestamp before midnight eastern time oct23. THIS IS A SOUND AND CLEAR YES. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER
2025-10-24 17:30:00
[link removed]
2025-10-24 19:11:30
AFP is a joke to you?
2025-10-24 19:11:56
GG GUYS ANOTHER ONE FOR THE TRUTH! BET ON YOUR BELIEFS BECAUSE REALITY DO NOT EXIST
2025-10-24 19:13:33
Just lose all your money and leave this place
2025-10-25 12:58:55
[link removed]
2025-10-27 11:30:09
:(
2025-10-27 19:45:48
How the president of Mexico announcement, the head of the states making the agreement with Trump, informal to you?
2025-10-27 20:16:02
And there we go; alpha leaked
2025-10-27 20:16:50
Nevi you lost 10$, what about going for a walk in the park?
2025-10-27 20:34:45
So according to you the extension is not finilized?
2025-10-27 20:36:25
You might want to go check August market
2025-10-28 00:53:23
Robbb would you contact me on discord? Analista_pm
2025-10-29 13:38:21
From the nbc thread you shared: Some of the agreements, such as the one with Japan, merely reaffirm handshake trade deals that were announced earlier this year, the details of which are still being negotiated. Still, U.S. and South Korean trade delegations have hashed out the details of their handshake agreement in July, including the hundreds of billions South Korea has pledged to invest in the U.S.
2025-10-29 17:46:13
I'm sorry.., Fake dropper is right; Auto-sector was excluded from the 15% tariff and subjected to 25%; after today agreement they brought it down to 15% as was already for Japan and EU
2025-10-29 17:46:50
[link removed]
2025-10-29 17:47:29
I looked really shortly into this and took a biased position based on what I already knew. But they did agree on new aspect of tariffs today
2025-10-29 18:00:57
[link removed]
2025-10-29 18:20:22
Financial times: South Korea has agreed to invest $350bn in the US in return for lower tariffs on car exports to the world’s largest economy, in a trade deal struck by President Donald Trump and his South Korean counterpart Lee Jae Myung
2025-10-29 18:20:51
What was the resolution source again?
2025-10-29 18:22:13
Still financial times: Wednesday’s agreement will reduce US auto tariffs on South Korean imports from 25 to 15 per cent, providing relief for the Asian country’s industry, which had been subject to higher duties than its Japanese rivals. Vehicles accounted for about a third of South Korean exports to the US last year, according to UN trade data.
2025-10-29 18:22:52
WEDNESDAY AGREEMENT
2025-10-29 18:29:31
Jesus, he's the one proposing markets
2025-10-29 18:43:02
This market is about tariff agreement not about a trade deal, nothing needs to be signed, just announced by both parties. And they did
2025-10-29 19:24:41
Yeah, but agreement unlike deals don’t need a signature. Read rules
2025-10-29 19:59:32
“I wouldn't do that. I think it's too cute.” - DJT
2025-10-30 15:04:55
Witnesses said Israeli planes carried out 10 airstrikes in areas east of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, while tanks shelled areas east of Gaza City in the north before dawn on Thursday. No casualties were reported. The Israeli military said it carried out "precise" strikes against "terrorist infrastructure that posed a threat to the troops" in the areas of Gaza where its forces are still deployed.
2025-10-30 15:04:59
GG
2025-10-30 15:05:35
AJA also reported about them airstriking Gaza electrical infrastructure building
2025-10-30 15:06:36
Video on youtube, can't post it here for some reason
2025-10-30 15:20:43
I love No holders, the most reputable News Source on planet earth is telling them that IDF carried multiple airstrike on gaza thrusday oct 30, and they proceed to buy no. LMAO
2025-10-30 15:40:43
No holders are lucky that all the sharps and whales are currently raging on dutch elections
2025-10-30 16:21:39
The Israeli military said it carried out "precise" strikes against "terrorist infrastructure that posed a threat to the troops" in the areas of Gaza where its forces are still deployed.
2025-10-30 16:21:48
Reuters: [link removed]
2025-10-30 16:22:04
IDF also talk to journalist you know, they don't only make X posts
2025-10-30 16:24:45
you just joined huh
2025-10-30 16:25:41
Reuters: The Israeli military said it carried out "precise" strikes against "terrorist infrastructure that posed a threat to the troops" in the areas of Gaza where its forces are still deployed.
2025-10-30 16:55:09
They already did bro wake up
2025-10-30 16:56:21
Nah bro are you stupid or what?
2025-10-30 16:56:41
Also, it's crazy that I always see you losing on ME markets
2025-10-30 17:08:57
What about reuters?
2025-10-30 18:10:48
I guess i focused on the wrong market today
2025-10-30 19:54:36
[link removed].il/news/article/rjazw00e1bx?utm_source=[link removed]&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=Twitterutm_term=rjazw00e1bx&utm_content=Flash
2025-10-30 19:54:47
[link removed]
2025-10-30 19:55:25
Do we have consensus or not?
2025-10-30 19:59:33
[link removed]
2025-10-30 19:59:55
Thank god you'll be out of money soon
2025-10-30 20:00:38
[link removed]
2025-10-30 20:01:31
[link removed]
2025-10-30 20:08:53
Learn to read
2025-10-30 20:12:06
I love you No holders, you so smart
2025-10-30 20:17:29
Yeah Reuters is rigged, DW too, also YNET
2025-10-30 20:18:19
Forgot about Aljazeera they must be corrupt since they are arabs no?
2025-10-31 15:25:58
How funny they revoke pentagon press pass but leak imminent attacks to MIAMI HERALD lmao
2025-10-31 16:13:10
There is nothing even close to consensus on reporting here, let alone IDF confirmation
2025-10-31 16:18:50
Reuters reports about shellings and gunfire; AJA about an airstrikes on the 21th day of the ceasfire, too bad today it’s the 22nd. Israel did indeed strike yesterday night “going into Friday”. No confirmed airstrike was carried into Gaza today. Yes only chance is for it to happen in the next 6.5h and pray to get IDF confirmation or credible reporting in such a short timespan
2025-10-31 16:19:31
Next 5.5h sorry - idk how much you would price that
2025-10-31 16:28:14
Crazy stuff.
2025-10-31 16:44:03
Do you know that you risk ban for influencing other traders to buy/sell into things that are not proved right?
2025-11-01 11:31:22
Do someone please have a SINGLE PIECE OF EVIDENCE
2025-11-01 11:56:57
Agree
2025-11-01 12:21:03
Once a month I must sacrifice my pnl to insiders
2025-11-01 12:37:47
No
2025-11-01 12:43:15
[link removed]
2025-11-01 13:35:24
An attack on Khan Yunis was carried early tonight
2025-11-01 13:35:56
[link removed]
2025-11-03 08:53:33
I love you guys for keep believing that this market will resolve on al nasser hospital reports alone
2025-11-03 10:47:29
Oct31 just resolved No in front of your eyes because we had neither consensus and IDF confirmation. What makes you believe that this will be different for today?
2025-11-03 10:48:26
It’s always the same story. AJA report on al nasser/palestinian information, you buy shitload on yes, price then collapse after market realize that this is not enough.
2025-11-03 10:49:44
You might get lucky and one IDF official later confirms to Reuters; but Reuters daily article on gaza was already made today and there is no kind of reference to Airstrike or whatsoever
2025-11-03 11:00:07
Avest must be cocobambino new account
2025-11-03 11:05:13
Have you prepared the google doc?
2025-11-03 11:10:33
I doubt
2025-11-03 22:25:37
This was slow…
2025-11-04 17:49:16
Wtf
2025-11-05 13:06:30
Shitty sources again huh
2025-11-05 14:15:04
No official idf confirmation; no official major international media consensus; only national reporting…
2025-11-05 17:36:32
Where is the consensus?
2025-11-05 19:53:52
Cashy are the two terrorist killed the same the idf confirmed to have been shoot by troops?
2025-11-05 19:55:34
First, there is no official IDF confirmation anywhere regarding a Gaza strike on November 5. Second, how could Reuters’ phrase “as airstrikes continue” possibly be considered a confirmation of an airstrike today, when it is merely a contextual statement? The market’s rule requirements were in no way met today.
2025-11-05 20:02:09
Reuters article reports exactly the same thing the IDF stated, 2 terrorist killed because approaching the yellow line. Now please tell me where exactly, either in reuters article or IDF hebrew and english X post is an airstrike carried on Nov5 confirmed.
2025-11-05 20:05:26
I can’t post X link of IDF reporting, but search for it, then read reuters article, and tell wether is there any confirmation of a drone or airstrike or whatever else that qualifies
2025-11-05 20:08:13
The title is contextual, israel has being bombing gaza for days. Despite this, hamas said that they will hand over bodies
2025-11-05 20:08:26
Does this market resolve on confirmation or assumptions?
2025-11-05 20:09:46
So can you please show us IDF confirming the airstrike? Or consensus of major international media?
2025-11-05 20:10:52
Check what kind of articles and IDF statement made other market expire yes and then tell me if it’s the case here.
2025-11-05 20:11:30
What’s crazier is that cashy is holding No on lebanon 4 based exactly on the same argument i’m making here
2025-11-05 20:13:05
Can you quote where the date and time of today airstrike is reported on Reuters article?
2025-11-05 20:18:19
Courage your article are about a strike that happend oct29
2025-11-05 20:27:03
The terrorist that held 6 hostages was killed oct29
2025-11-05 20:27:35
[link removed]
2025-11-05 20:27:56
[link removed]
2025-11-05 20:28:09
Check the IDF statement and tell me where an airstrike is mentioned
2025-11-05 20:33:07
“Palestinian reports”
2025-11-05 20:52:40
They will unfortunately scam this
2025-11-05 21:37:34
We are so back
2025-11-06 06:29:33
I tried to warn you
2025-11-06 19:34:51
Here my 50$ on Barak Ravid being the biggest fucking liar ever
2025-11-06 20:34:48
And study some international lwa
2025-11-06 20:35:00
And study some international law
2025-11-06 21:55:14
[link removed]
2025-11-06 22:57:18
IF THEY SIGN A NORMALIZATION AGREEMENT WITH ISRALE HENCE A BILATERAL AGREEMENT THIS WILL RESOLVE YES. OTHERWISE IT RESOLVES NO
2025-11-06 22:57:44
IF THEY SIGN A NORMALIZATION AGREEMENT WITH ISRAEL HENCE A BILATERAL AGREEMENT THIS WILL RESOLVE YES. OTHERWISE IT RESOLVES NO
2025-11-06 23:04:16
THE ONLY OTHER DOCUMENT THEY CAN SIGN IS A DECLARATION AND BY DEFINITION IS NOT A NORMALIZATION AGREEMENT AS PER RULES REQUIRMENT
2025-11-06 23:05:32
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel
2025-11-06 23:08:05
MY CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN
2025-11-06 23:09:16
Media work is not to know things, is to sell news. They are just marketers. Like yo mama
2025-11-07 06:06:09
Guess with whom
2025-11-07 06:30:31
Respectively 8 and 5% chance saudi or syria normalize relation with israel this year. But you think that Bibi is going to washington to sign a deal with Kazakhstan? Lmao.
2025-11-07 06:35:04
GG
2025-11-07 07:19:32
GG
2025-11-08 10:43:03
I know. Sudan didn’t even signed a normalization agreement with israel
2025-11-08 10:44:34
I think you don’t know
2025-11-08 22:58:17
Nothing already happened
2025-11-09 09:38:04
I don’t see how this can resolve yes based on NPR visit, since this visit already happened before the creation of this market. The whole ruleset point to an official announcement to be issued, so this should be considered as a policy market and nothing else.
2025-11-09 13:04:28
Take care
2025-11-09 13:20:49
0 position
2025-11-09 20:18:59
Damn
2025-11-09 21:04:44
Lebanon will resolve in official gov statement (lebanese)
2025-11-09 21:05:08
Lebanese gov confirmed the attack
2025-11-09 22:04:38
Good luck resolving this with NOV4 precedent
2025-11-09 22:05:38
Thanks for playing on Nov9, currently nov10 in Gaza and Israel
2025-11-09 22:50:01
There is literally a precedent where with the exact same information it resolved No
2025-11-09 22:51:32
[link removed] Can someone tell me what israeli press is saying about this strike?
2025-11-09 23:23:40
According to hezbollah affiliated newspaper
2025-11-09 23:26:23
Many like you went trough this market and they are not here to tell the story
2025-11-09 23:44:43
This gets proposed; then disputed; then No’s side will basically copy paste nov4 uma thread; resolves No again
2025-11-10 09:38:01
Imagine this shit resolving yes on stuff happened before market creation while the whole ruleset is about official policy announcement from the israeli gov. Are we going to go against polymarket precedents?
2025-11-10 14:42:00
You shared a 2016 article.. you good?
2025-11-10 15:49:51
This market is the greatest bond you have till eoy
2025-11-10 19:29:44
Another retarted market
2025-11-11 18:20:18
some dumfuq must have thought this was thailand-cambodia
2025-11-11 18:22:26
It would have been enough to scroll and see previous comments
2025-11-11 18:47:01
REFUND
2025-11-12 08:51:25
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces that it will allow independent international journalists to enter Gaza by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
2025-11-12 12:48:49
lmao
2025-11-12 15:24:55
lmao
2025-11-12 16:11:27
Fair price of this is exactly what it was on Nov6
2025-11-14 09:54:36
Lmao who’s the scammer who resolved SK based on the fact sheet?
2025-11-14 12:58:58
I don't think the Gerald R. Ford carrier is there to strike mexico
2025-11-14 15:20:15
Tsibka misclicked
2025-11-14 16:41:47
So you profitclicked
2025-11-14 16:42:17
RIGHT NOW!
2025-11-17 12:53:14
They also mocked me at the beginning for betting small amounts. Let them be. One day you play music on top a cruise ship and some years later you are the head of a G7 country. You'll make it one day silvio
2025-11-17 12:54:23
You both have 500$ in total positions so...
2025-11-17 13:33:39
Nonsense
2025-11-17 21:07:54
cubastreet lmao
2025-11-17 21:11:36
"cubastreet" lmao
2025-11-17 21:15:50
idk
2025-11-17 21:16:07
70% yes
2025-11-17 21:23:34
looks more like 85% now
2025-11-17 21:33:46
seguro
2025-11-17 22:08:28
This is not going to resolve yes because of Trump statement in the oval office, is going to resolve yes because they'll announce it tomorrow
2025-11-17 22:21:43
Haiyaa, you are very wrong but on the correct side
2025-11-17 22:31:20
AF1????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
2025-11-17 22:48:18
The UN resolution do not create the board; it welcomes it. Only official policy announcement from WH qualifies
2025-11-17 22:54:11
And also: the object of consensus from reporting must be that the board IS establish AND operational
2025-11-17 22:56:05
I knew scummers were coming here as soon the resolution passed
2025-11-17 23:03:42
You must be a bachelor student
2025-11-17 23:04:32
Huh
2025-11-17 23:04:48
Huh?!
2025-11-17 23:28:57
Someone call ICE on this pendejo
2025-11-18 00:13:11
“Illiterate”? Thats the word you were looking for maybe? Anyways; you’ll be out of money in 30dd, thanks for hanging out with us!
2025-11-18 00:45:10
Yeah i just misunderstood his comment
2025-11-18 01:59:42
Over 150m e a s y
2025-11-18 16:12:51
Same as qatar and it will be a GG
2025-11-18 17:35:32
The kind of agreement wich not qualifies are listed as example; qatar instances is not among em, ask yourself why
2025-11-18 18:56:00
This should be 95c
2025-11-18 18:56:11
Really idk what the fuck is wrong with this market
2025-11-18 19:57:34
DENIZZ MY BOY.... WHY
2025-11-19 10:36:39
Trump literally saluted him on camera! How is that not an interaction wtf?
2025-11-19 11:40:50
Trump said wassup my g when tapping him; RESOLVE
2025-11-19 21:57:51
You must be retarted to propose yes here
2025-11-21 18:23:16
shabbat shalom
2025-11-21 19:06:20
you see guys, this is how you spot a jew
2025-11-21 20:03:30
IDF press release is partying RN; they'll never confirm during the weekend
2025-11-21 20:08:54
People never learn the lesson in this markets
2025-11-21 20:16:03
lol
2025-11-21 20:16:19
true
2025-11-22 17:05:17
I KNEW IT
2025-11-23 12:55:27
fuck
2025-11-23 12:55:41
fuck fuck fuck
2025-11-24 22:33:24
Excuse me
2025-11-25 01:47:56
“And a tie” changes everything
2025-11-25 13:14:48
"The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal," the U.S. official said. "There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal."
2025-11-25 18:59:40
They’ll meet this Friday
2025-11-25 19:37:01
I was kidding
2025-11-30 17:16:13
Ah
2025-12-02 14:09:16
[link removed] reuters corroborates
2025-12-02 14:10:02
Earlier, an Israeli airstrike killed a Palestinian man, whom local health authorities identified as freelance journalist Mahmoud Wadi in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.
2025-12-03 18:59:23
I need a gram
2025-12-03 19:00:40
What is this? Black friday? Ciber monday? Consensus Wednesday?
2025-12-03 19:17:42
Idk… he’s kinda right
2025-12-03 19:31:22
My kids must eat - leak me your alpha
2025-12-03 19:40:58
Is his last name consensus?
2025-12-03 19:46:11
Do you own 777 shares as a reference to casinos?
2025-12-03 19:49:09
The primary resolution source will be IDF statement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used - Can somebody provide 1 of the 2?
2025-12-03 20:14:54
I'll buy ur mama condoms
2025-12-03 20:15:45
underrated
2025-12-07 10:40:40
This smells like shit
2025-12-08 23:54:42
Fuck
2025-12-09 00:06:30
All the reporting is after midnight
2025-12-09 00:07:12
Thats 00:20 IST
2025-12-09 00:07:57
How much is a short while? Is it the day before?
2025-12-10 20:01:46
Am I a moron?
2025-12-10 20:24:04
I am really confused
2025-12-10 21:00:58
We’ll have a number by tomorrow
2025-12-10 23:32:52
What is a woman?
2025-12-12 17:45:52
GG
2025-12-12 18:45:43
At the moment we don't have 1) consensus, read reuters article, trump claim is in conflict with thai PM words; 2) any announce from thai or cambodian gov; 3) any local news outlet reporting on the ceasefire/trump announcment
2025-12-12 18:47:48
This might be or not be a done deal, but it is a fact that nothing qualifying for market resolution is available atm
2025-12-12 18:56:19
Put your mouth where your money is!11!11!
2025-12-12 21:15:43
The date they announce they agreed
2025-12-13 00:38:37
[link removed]
2025-12-13 00:39:58
Cambodian prime minister: Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia, held telephone discussions with H.E. Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, on 11 December 2025, and with H.E. Donald Trump, President of the United States, on the night of 12 December 2025. The purpose of the calls was to explore ways to establish a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand and to encourage both sides to return to implementing the Kuala Lumpur Joint Declaration.
2025-12-13 00:40:58
Thanks for playing; next 48h will be so fun
2025-12-13 01:01:53
Are you retarted?
2025-12-13 02:59:36
I think that's what he already did
2025-12-13 03:07:08
So both parties denied the existence of a ceasefire and the thai even said the military operation will go on. NIce.
2025-12-16 11:44:23
Reports about being in a call with multiple people (as much as 12 european head of states and officials) is enough or do we need report about trump and von der layen directly speaking?
2025-12-16 12:15:02
IDK about september but It looks to me that is a resolution based on inference rather than evidence
2025-12-16 13:47:07
The difference is that for zelensky a consensus of reporting about them speaking to each other exist, while the same isn’t true for Ursula. The reporting is about partecipating in a videoconference with European leaders, not speaking with Ursula. What if Ursula didn’t even say hello?
2025-12-16 16:06:41
A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. This is what you need to find consensus for, not the fact that she was among the people who partecipated in the call.
2025-12-16 16:09:07
The fact that she was present during the call is out of question. What is questionable is wether is there any proof of interaction between them.
2025-12-16 19:01:39
Just put a bond on it
2025-12-16 19:38:11
Obviously = no proof
2025-12-16 19:51:18
In the evening, against all odds, Donald Trump even appeared by videoconference at the dinner organized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with a dozen European officials. - still no proof of interaction
2025-12-16 20:11:42
This is like Trump-Musk markets when they meet at the white house when MBS was there.
2025-12-16 20:12:04
And we even had a video of them at the time
2025-12-16 20:24:08
Where does it says that they talked?
2025-12-16 20:57:49
The market lacks any kind of definitive evidence/statement/reporting that Trump and Ursula engaged in conversation or interacted with each other. That's something undeniable. The only way to resolve this market to yes would be to draw conclusion from incomplete information
2025-12-16 21:02:38
[link removed] Trump himself says to have spoken to the heads of: Germany, Italy, NATO, Finland, France, the United Kingdom, Poland, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands but no mention of Ursula
2025-12-16 21:03:37
Is Ursula the Head of Nato?
2025-12-16 21:17:44
you must be high on crack
2025-12-18 12:10:25
That is what they are indeed doing, sharing the financial risk and burden of this
2025-12-18 12:21:44
This is a hill I would die on
2025-12-18 12:48:18
How the fuck this was trading around 15c for days is a question that will never be answered
2025-12-18 12:53:32
Don't tell me
2025-12-18 21:44:00
Damn
2025-12-18 22:03:58
Alexparker is the new airdrop
2025-12-18 22:11:33
If you think that in the multitude of files released tomorrow there will not be a single thing qualifying for this market, well, you are indeed clinically retarded and please you are more than welcome to stick around on this platform
2025-12-18 22:22:05
Ur mama too but I can't quote the website
2025-12-18 22:26:00
They are indeed redacting because they are autistic and they love to mark things down with black sharpies
2025-12-19 19:30:23
Are you 12?
2025-12-19 20:40:14
FREE THE FILES
2025-12-19 21:06:47
Did anyone access the file?
2025-12-19 21:13:15
There is not a single piece of info lmao
2025-12-19 21:13:21
is just photos
2025-12-19 21:58:54
Looks like i rode this hill
2025-12-20 16:22:23
Fuck Reuters for using past tense. Stupid illiterate journalist
2025-12-20 16:25:59
I read is a cargo of bananas
2025-12-22 08:09:24
GM!
2025-12-22 16:37:13
Damn you are telling me that it was a mistake to dump N at 30c??
2025-12-22 17:44:23
NO WAY!
2025-12-22 18:51:34
Don’t fail me brother
2025-12-22 22:38:39
It's crazy how I manage to get fuck by insiders both ways
2025-12-22 22:42:30
bruh
2025-12-22 22:52:50
Video is clearly fake; it's in fact interesting whether they'll release a statement about it or just choose silence
2025-12-22 22:59:46
If any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video has been significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented, or doctored to make it appear as though it is footage of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
2025-12-22 23:22:54
The only definitive evidence comes from US government agencies not from consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise this market should have no reason to exist.
2025-12-22 23:34:40
if consesus was enough why add gov confirmation in rules? Any gov agencies statement would have been on top of media consensus. The consensus of reporting is clearly about gov agencies confirming the video is altered e.g trough us officials confirmation to journalist
2025-12-23 06:45:22
Maybe make 13k and then give me advice kiddo
2025-12-25 12:23:53
Merry Christmas
2025-12-27 13:07:00
Nobody will join the bilateral between Trump and Zelenskyy tomorrow
2025-12-27 15:20:31
on the internet
2025-12-28 15:23:46
I really hope you guys get enough reporting this time
2025-12-30 18:20:07
On retrospect I think that diditagain had the info but overestimated the reporting on the matter, which is essential to market resolution
2026-01-01 16:45:31
you must be high.... There is no AP reporting on this and Arab info do not qualifies, as it didn't in the last market
2026-01-01 17:35:42
Alquds?
2026-01-02 15:37:44
As of now there is no consensus the JET were Saudis as they Saudis denied to comment on the strike and NBC is just quoting on Separatists leader comment
2026-01-02 15:41:45
Saudi warplanes have reportedly struck on Friday forces in southern Yemen backed by the United Arab Emirates, a separatist leader says.
2026-01-02 15:42:50
AP like NBC is quoting UAE backed separatist leader words
2026-01-02 15:52:44
separatists leader clearly have an incentive on stating the jets were Saudis rathern than yemeni yes. Whether he is lying or not is something we cannot know unless we have official statement from Saudis/Yemeni armed forces
2026-01-02 16:05:21
For you to understand: No news agencies confirmed the jets were Saudis, they linked (ofc) the attack to the Saudi led coalition but the strike could have been carried by the Yemeni airforce too. The words of the separatist leader alone cannot suffice to determine wether the jets were actually Saudis
2026-01-02 16:19:55
STC
2026-01-03 16:30:00
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.
2026-01-03 17:08:28
If they are bringing him to guantanamo aboard of the USS iwo jima I think we will not see him at least for the next 30h
2026-01-03 18:56:27
back to 5 cents
2026-01-03 22:24:24
Lmao
2026-01-03 22:37:53
This is so funny
2026-01-04 01:23:20
tik tok
2026-01-04 16:47:01
If you have to steal my profile picture at least avoid posting retarted comments
2026-01-04 19:02:32
yup, scheduled by
2026-01-05 11:29:29
He has a live on Twitch playing minecraft scheduled for Wednesdays
2026-01-05 13:47:26
Maybe you should stop snoring that white stuff
2026-01-05 16:09:35
gugugaga
2026-01-05 18:04:50
copefan go sleep dude
2026-01-05 18:04:57
you need it
2026-01-05 19:59:44
This market is the closest thing to an IQ test ever
2026-01-05 20:53:14
Why do you hate yourself?
2026-01-06 02:04:43
tik tok
2026-01-06 10:46:38
Copefan we tried to warn you
2026-01-06 19:22:08
I would like to hear no arguments here
2026-01-06 19:27:53
The mechanism that has been established will facilitate immediate and ongoing coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement. This is a proactive and formalized framework for achieving security and stability between the two countries.
2026-01-06 19:34:23
The joint mechanism is a proactive measure for security between the countries it's not a "de-escalatory" measure
2026-01-08 17:31:36
GG
2026-01-08 19:06:58
Under the deal, Venezuela would hand over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., to be sold. The proceeds can be spent “at the discretion of the U.S. government,” and the funds will “be disbursed for the benefit of the American people and the Venezuelan people,” the Department of Energy said in a statement. Venezuela has not disputed the plan.
2026-01-08 19:07:09
[link removed]
2026-01-08 19:07:33
Is US energy department + Washington post enough?
2026-01-08 19:18:30
Easing some sanctions to sell Venezuela's oil The Trump administration, meanwhile, is "selectively" removing sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil to markets worldwide, according to an outline of the policies published Wednesday by the Energy Department. The sales are slated to begin immediately with 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil. The U.S. government said the sales "will continue indefinitely," with the proceeds settling in [link removed] accounts at "globally recognized banks." The money would be disbursed to the U.S. and Venezuelan populations at the "discretion" of Trump's government.
2026-01-08 19:18:36
[link removed]
2026-01-08 19:46:23
Until it does
2026-01-08 21:43:02
Idk just share credit card details here in comments and we'll try to help
2026-01-09 13:17:17
Many reports about attempting interception
2026-01-09 13:17:47
Idk understand WSJ report tbh
2026-01-09 13:20:19
[link removed] Reuters do not mention boarding the vessel yet
2026-01-09 13:31:02
NO PROOF
2026-01-09 14:30:12
Here at Polymarket we love local media !
2026-01-09 15:40:11
All 13 people were killed on Thursday.
2026-01-09 15:40:25
[link removed]
2026-01-09 17:27:57
I'll be back for the dispute
2026-01-09 18:01:56
I LOVE YOU GUYS
2026-01-09 18:03:21
I can’t believe this
2026-01-09 18:03:48
YESTERDAY ATTACK FOR YESTARDS
2026-01-09 18:33:46
[link removed]
2026-01-09 18:50:33
Crazy how people cannot read
2026-01-09 19:12:44
There is not a single report of strike on gaza today, they confirm yesterday strike and you buy like chimpanzee lmao
2026-01-09 22:02:49
GG
2026-01-10 20:17:43
Enroll in the army and get deployed at Al-Tanf base
2026-01-11 14:19:44
scam below do not click
2026-01-11 14:51:03
shit
2026-01-12 12:39:04
YESSIRRR LET'S DEPLOY OUR CAPITAL ON YEMEN YES GOGOGOGOGOGOOGOGOGO
2026-01-12 13:03:17
I thought the same back in september
2026-01-14 20:09:26
milk
2026-01-14 20:13:19
DRINK MORE MILK
2026-01-15 20:56:38
HERE [link removed]
2026-01-15 21:41:38
Text "yes" or "no" at +1 800-555-0199
2026-01-21 18:34:13
So haida instead of halda? PAY ME
2026-01-21 18:36:13
scroll
2026-01-21 19:32:12
oh no
2026-01-21 20:47:44
[link removed]
2026-01-21 20:48:08
NADELLA and HUANG had a meeting with Trump during the dinner he organized
2026-01-21 21:34:39
don't do it meloni
2026-01-22 19:51:48
WHERE IS THE STRIKE
2026-01-23 00:07:56
Hopefully not above us
2026-01-23 14:47:47
I think he's totally fine
2026-01-23 17:32:28
NO PROOF
2026-01-24 15:38:25
Embrace the penguin
2026-01-24 22:51:48
yeah i don't understand why don't they add more people here
2026-01-25 09:36:15
but why
2026-01-26 11:46:50
I think there is a high level of confusion about strikes happened after 23JAN, which is none atm
2026-01-26 12:00:14
al-miskaad strike has already been confirmed by AFRICOM if thats what you are talking about
2026-01-26 13:48:11
Do you think I'm not aware?
2026-01-26 14:03:07
ask yourself
2026-01-26 14:15:41
I think people is wash-trading here at this point
2026-01-26 16:52:53
bro just tell em on discords
2026-01-26 17:56:46
dude why is the photo used for this market not illegal
2026-01-27 07:58:01
Nor Reuters nor bloomberg confirmed to be balistic
2026-01-27 10:14:47
Thank you Michael
2026-01-28 10:35:58
Bolsonaro did not resolve because Trump statement was confused, not because leader word is not enough
2026-01-29 15:52:53
show proof
2026-01-29 18:29:55
[link removed]
2026-01-29 20:14:57
Fully confirmed lol
2026-01-29 21:13:38
you know the ruleees and so do IIII
2026-01-29 21:40:14
Busman your mom told me dinner is ready, get off the computer NOW
2026-01-29 21:43:15
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that President Vladimir Putin has agreed not to target the Ukrainian capital and other towns for one week as the region experiences frigid temperatures. There was no immediate confirmation from the Kremlin that Putin has agreed to such a pause.
2026-01-29 22:52:48
"we asked"
2026-01-30 00:06:51
Busman should be the one without electricity not the ukranians
2026-01-30 09:30:17
[link removed]
2026-01-30 10:13:32
BUSAN I HOPE YOU CAN'T AFFORD YOUR WIFI ANYMORE
2026-01-30 10:53:38
The fact that he "received" a request makes the phone call less likely. Peskov also confirm when direct phone calls between Trump and Putin takes place. This is P4, there is no consensus on what was the medium of exchange nor timing.
2026-01-30 10:54:06
personal request does not equal to phone call and indeed Peskov confirmed the request but not a call
2026-01-30 10:54:28
thus P4 as for previous market
2026-01-30 15:51:28
The reported asked if it was by letter or by phone call and Peskov declined to comment, stating only that "the president Trump really asked Putin" without providing further detail, so clearly not enough do determine whether there was a phone call or not
2026-02-02 17:56:12
Witkoff might have some intestinal issues during his abu dabhi trip
2026-02-06 11:02:07
you don't understand my friend, it's me against the world
2026-02-06 21:04:00
[link removed]
2026-02-07 13:50:34
[link removed]
2026-02-09 15:29:09
GG
2026-02-09 18:49:04
George we'll have a party at your place in Montenegro if this happens
2026-02-10 22:33:24
I was almost retarted
2026-02-11 09:20:30
You know we love palestinian report here at Polymarket
2026-02-11 14:48:08
ok gotcha don't worry honey
2026-02-11 17:44:03
infer you say
2026-02-11 19:25:29
dude wat
2026-02-11 21:06:12
2h car
2026-02-13 10:12:23
Scotty nooooooooooooooo
2026-02-13 12:28:44
crazy that you have a life outside polymarket, how did you do that?
2026-02-14 12:05:11
[link removed]
2026-02-18 21:30:22
[link removed] check your dictionary
2026-02-22 16:40:52
Bipolar is really bipolar
2026-02-23 14:04:18
CAPITALISM MUST GO ON
2026-02-26 11:22:24
Dump it bro
2026-02-28 10:46:34
"according to Sabereen news agency"
2026-02-28 16:33:01
You can check vessels are still going trough and iranian officials denied to Reuters
2026-02-28 16:58:16
This is the most insane price action I have ever seen
2026-03-01 10:03:12
Macron: "French Navy helicopters helped last night in the boarding by Belgian forces" Only Belgian forces boarded the vessel and took control of it. The support form the french government was to carry them with helicopters.
2026-03-01 10:25:25
How isn't this remote support?
2026-03-01 13:23:27
So you tell me that Arafi going from 13c to 60c is motivated by him being appointed along two other people to lead the transition council? lmao
2026-03-01 13:25:22
There is a 23% the regime fall by march and 50% Arafi is next Supreme Leader according to you?!
2026-03-03 14:34:21
They smoke em bad
2026-03-03 15:22:03
Do you really believe the Israeli strike an empty building?
2026-03-03 15:45:35
They did a google meet !
2026-03-03 17:17:16
Qatar can't be anywhere near it's FV at 75c
2026-03-03 21:09:23
I guess somebody did not read rules
2026-03-03 23:58:08
Can you read? “If he’s choosen” IF
2026-03-05 10:18:26
Taxes
2026-03-05 11:40:01
You see why this is mispriced right? [link removed].il/news-military/Israel_iran_war/[link removed]?utm_source=AndroidNews12&utm_medium=Share
2026-03-05 13:19:44
Pls don’t die bro
2026-03-07 10:51:38
What about march 4?
2026-03-07 16:59:14
lmao
2026-03-12 23:18:09
Yes
2026-03-22 14:33:55
s
2026-03-22 22:08:30
Times of israel reported
2026-03-23 13:55:21
I think he shouldn't stop
2026-03-30 18:25:34
It's always the same story
2026-03-30 20:03:23
None
2026-03-30 21:24:10
None
2026-04-03 12:59:15
None
2026-04-03 13:31:44
None
2026-04-03 13:43:09
None
2026-04-03 18:24:29
.
2026-04-04 12:15:34
[link removed]
2026-04-04 15:03:41
There is literally a Reuters article claiming nobody took responsibility. Can you tell how could they clarify in favor of Y
2026-04-04 15:10:08
Lmao i laughed so hard at this. Let’s say that if there was a market about it, yes. We need substantial proof
2026-04-04 15:32:28
The consensus of credible reporting for Y is a "The Maritime Executive" article lmao
2026-04-04 17:00:31
1) omani are investigating the sources since no party claimed responsibility 2) no confirmation from IRGC say that they targeted a U.S. support vessel at a "considerable" distance from Salalah port and "the national sovereignty of our brotherly and friendly country Oman is respected by the Islamic Republic of Iran"
[link removed]
2026-04-04 17:07:58
The journal of commerce of the S&P reporting that: "...media is reporting that the drones were fired by Houthi militants in neighboring Yemen."
[link removed]
2026-04-04 17:40:10
You know Car has failed when he shares X post as proof, while holding his scam position on it’s alt.
2026-04-04 19:14:10
please clarify this shit and put an end to this clown show
2026-04-04 19:40:22
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
"explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory"
Still waiting for someone to provide evidence about this
2026-04-05 00:06:40
Thanks for playing again
2026-04-05 14:29:59
No is screwed.
2026-04-05 14:59:14
Back to reading comprehension class
2026-04-06 16:01:15
Car and Co ruined this place
2026-04-09 14:43:05
This nonsense will end
2026-04-10 17:26:12
I AM AN AVIATION EXPERT NOW
2026-04-12 16:46:42
Indirect talks took place already on Friday between advanced teams of Iran and USA, mediated by Pakistan and reported by the guardian. To dismiss this as qualifying for market resolution is just wrong.
2026-04-18 09:47:31
None
2026-04-20 14:11:11
who the retard who put 104k share order by mistake
2026-04-20 14:21:24
been?
2026-04-20 14:21:38
being.
2026-04-21 21:22:36
US x Pakistan ceasefire extended by...?
2026-04-21 21:38:49
unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify.
2026-04-22 18:02:29
[link removed]
2026-04-22 18:02:36
STOP THE SCMA
2026-04-22 18:02:43
STOP THE SCAM
2026-04-24 08:44:27
This is sadly a No. The truth machine is broken guys, if it ever worked
2026-04-24 09:13:15
Wtf
2026-04-24 11:57:26
Weren’t you in holiday?
2026-04-26 20:49:28
Lol
2026-04-27 08:54:16
All of the reporting you are citing are just reporting based on Ursula X post, she never stated that they spoke by phone. P4
2026-04-28 00:47:12
[link removed]
2026-04-29 19:05:36
MBS N holders about to find out
2026-04-29 22:31:42
egabriel you are going to learn who bosaurum is pretty soon
2026-04-29 22:32:15
not to talk about the 4,5k you just donated to charity
2026-04-29 22:54:51
If you think that vessel seized by IL army will count toward resolution you are retarted, never heard of spirit of the market and soon 4,5k poorer
2026-04-30 11:26:40
shalom
2026-04-30 11:34:51
gabriel do you think to have just unlocked a crazy system to fuck the market lmao. get your shit together and speak english
2026-04-30 11:58:57
So if the flottilla get seized in intarnational water and brought to Israel you think the conditions for resolutions apply???????? bro stop burning your money. Or maybe not. Keep pushing it to 70c that I missed my entry this morning.
2026-04-30 13:27:27
hahahahahahahahahhaahhaha
2026-04-30 13:31:50
who the fuck cares bro. The flotilla didn't make it to IL waters if it got intercepted before regardless of wether it brought there by force later.
2026-04-30 13:32:17
you are focusing so much on the legal aspect of this without actually thinking what the spirit (objective) of the market is
2026-05-05 16:13:48
If 23 dry bulk crossed the strait on 27/04 I'll give DOG 4 millions
2026-05-07 18:36:30
The existence of a purported suicide note was first reported by The New York Times, which shared last week that the note had been concealed from the public for almost seven years. The Times had asked District Judge Kenneth Karas to make public the reported note and other documents related to the cellmate’s criminal case, and the Justice Department did not oppose the transparency.
[link removed]
2026-05-07 18:37:14
concealed from public for 7 years and now released. Is the only alleged suicide note written by epstein before the suicide.
2026-05-07 18:42:46
This is the only existing alleged suicide note from Epstein.
Either we resolve the market on this one being released or there will be none released.
2026-05-07 22:12:04
This will be back at normal price in 18h. Too bad we don't have strike market anymore
2026-05-07 22:15:50
who the fuck is flying above Iran anyways
2026-05-08 12:37:24
hentai virus
2026-05-09 04:45:24
POLYMARKET THE LEAST YOU COULD DO IS REFUND ALL TRADES AFTER PRECLARIFICATION DUE TO YOUR “TECHNICAL ISSUE”
2026-05-09 04:46:28
YOU CANNOT TELL TRADERS THEY HAVE AN HOUR OF TRADING BEFORE AN EVENTUAL CLARIFICATION AND THEN ALL OF SUDDEN SHUT IT DOWN
2026-05-09 04:47:07
YOU DENIED TRADERS THE RIGHT TO SELL THEIR CONTRACTS
2026-05-09 04:49:32
STILL WAITING FOR THE PROTECTION: [link removed]
2026-05-10 13:09:47
google meet meeting yes
2026-05-10 15:12:48
We resolved on microsoft team meetings before, not sure about whatsapp calls tough
2026-05-11 13:21:17
The case must be identified within the US, hence an already positive case brought to the US do not qualify.
2026-05-11 13:23:59
Exactly, so a potential case that is tested within the US, regardless of where exposure or symptoms showed up would qualify. But a case identified outside the US and brought into the country is not identified within the country
2026-05-11 15:56:14
When egabriel starts crying you know you should sell
2026-05-11 22:08:45
no
2026-05-12 15:46:20
I’m really sorry for egabriel. He invests a lot of time writing long-ass comments under every market, just to get humbled by reality in the end. I’m with you, bro.
2026-05-12 15:54:56
@egabriel it's not over bro... maybe one the flotilla vessel will enter israel territorial waters eventually
2026-05-12 17:59:02
why do you hate your money bruv
2026-05-12 17:59:57
egabriel now telling everybody that if out of 10 PCR tests you get 1 positive and 9 negative you got 9 false-negative..... Please stop bro, don't do this to yourself.
2026-05-12 18:24:13
no way you so retarted
2026-05-13 18:52:07
Legal action for 16 bucks?
2026-05-13 20:13:22
This feels like stealing candies from kids
2026-05-13 20:37:08
Anastasia is a beatiful name bro
2026-05-15 06:46:04
This it top tier retarted
2026-05-15 14:47:18
Noooo don't share them the alpha
2026-05-15 14:50:05
bro shouldn't be in college in the first place
2026-05-15 18:43:32
GG
2026-05-21 16:23:12
fuck this mf changing his mind last minute
2026-05-24 08:45:03
The agreement has a time window for the issues not addressed to be negotiated. That has nothing to do with the cease of hostilities by parites
2026-05-24 08:45:07
parties
2026-05-24 08:55:14
All parties already agreed to a ceasefire, which already had no deadline. Now they are agreeing to a permanent end of hostilities as a precondition to then discuss remaining matters. You can bet that the deal fails but if agreed it will definitely satisfy rules requirment. GL
2026-05-24 09:14:11
"ANY DEAL which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran HAVE ended OR WILL permanently cease"
They struggle to figure this out so bad
2026-06-03 13:51:17
EO fact sheet:
The Order directs the Federal government to establish a voluntary framework in collaboration with AI developers regarding covered frontier models, which would provide the Federal government with secure early access for trusted partners to strengthen cybersecurity and promote secure innovation.
The Order expressly states that nothing shall be construed to authorize creation of any mandatory governmental licensing, pre-clearance, or permitting requirement for the development, publication, release or distribution of AI models.
Rules:
A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models
2026-06-03 15:23:41
Explain me how early access to model on a voluntary basis represent a review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models.
Again, from fact sheet:
The Order directs the Federal government to establish a voluntary framework in collaboration with AI developers regarding covered frontier models, which would provide the Federal government with secure early access for trusted partners to strengthen cybersecurity and promote secure innovation.
2026-06-03 20:26:51
just lmao
2026-06-03 20:30:15
@WHOSTP47
Lazy and inaccurate reporting from @NYT on this policy. The EO creates a process for frontier labs to voluntarily share cutting-edge cyber models in order to secure critical infrastructure and strengthen the government’s own cyber defenses. We are NOT conducting oversight of all new models, as that level of government overreach would have chilling effects on free speech and innovation.
2026-06-10 23:52:09
U.S. officials, per ABC: the efforts "have not been a revival of Project Freedom"
The announced mechanism is a routing hotline (call CENTCOM, get transit info), not a program to "escort, protect, or retrieve" ships
2026-06-13 20:37:44
The rules do not require signature or effectiveness. They require an official U.S. announcement of a successor agreement/framework under which the ceasefire will continue. Trump announced “My Agreement with Iran” and “The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow.” Axios reports the MOU will extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen Hormuz, and launch nuclear talks. Therefore June 13 had the qualifying U.S. announcement; signing/effectiveness is not required.
2026-06-13 20:42:15
What is the No argument for extension announcement?
2026-06-16 13:09:21
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:
Any military attack by the Zionist regime against Lebanon, and the continuation of the occupation, constitutes a violation of the Memorandum of Understanding.
Looks like the first clause of the MOU include Israel and Hezbollah as parties maybe?
2026-06-17 12:16:12
It's the same copy retard
2026-06-18 19:53:09
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Did Iranians signed a secret MOU with you where they commit to end enrichment?
2026-06-18 20:38:59
Literally saying that maintaing the status quo could be considered as an official pledge to something that is not even mentioned in the MOU is the most scammy and retarted shit ever
2026-06-18 21:11:11
Status quo = no change
No change to what? Iranian enrichment policy
Iranian enrichment policy = we want to enrich
2026-06-28 10:54:02
Still nobody refers to this as a Lebanon formal recognition of the state of Israel after almost 80 years.
2026-06-28 10:54:14
Affirming each state's "right to exist in peace" is not the same legal act as recognition: recognition is a discrete unilateral act acknowledging statehood, and for an implied recognition to count, the intent has to be unambiguous.
2026-07-01 20:23:55
A president speaking to a journalist calling to report on a matter is not a private conversation.
2026-07-03 13:20:15
He announced a live stream on kick for his dad funeral
2026-07-04 19:10:11
How can sub 20c make sense with 27 days left until the end of the month?
2026-07-04 20:45:41
420 ship in any week from here to the end of the month? Yeah?
2026-07-11 16:13:03
Behrain was targeted multiple times on july 8 and 9. US official confirmed strike but did not specified if it happen during the qualifying time (july 9 AST time). This will resolve No unless clear confirmation of impact on qualifying time window
2026-07-11 19:18:04
This is the first time someone calls me a whale
2026-07-12 13:38:06
lol
2026-07-16 14:16:32
Democrats in Congress visiting Cuba are not engaging in negotiations or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of the US government. They are acting within the scope of their official duties, but they are not representatives of the executive branch or speaking on behalf of the US government.
2026-07-29 14:29:37
What in retard is going on
2026-07-29 16:32:52
Aol do not writes articles lmao
2026-07-29 18:39:05
Apple podcast do not writes articles lmao
2026-08-02 14:16:41
Stop this nonesense
2026-08-18 19:44:00
Car was right!
2026-08-20 13:42:40
BOOM BOOM BOOM BOOM
2026-08-21 12:21:04
Reuters:
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigative committee to identify the source of the attack, according to Iraq’s state news agency.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi emphasized to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in a phone call Monday that there is no information indicating that the attack originated from within Iranian territory, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
2026-08-21 12:21:19
Rules:
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
2026-08-21 12:21:38
Liar,
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi emphasized to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in a phone call Monday that there is no information indicating that the attack originated from within Iranian territory, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
2026-08-21 13:22:02
It's over
2026-08-21 14:03:07
cool! Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigative committee to identify the source of the attack, according to Iraq’s state news agency.