Account Information
Name:
dfupagain
Pseudonym:
Wiggly-Photo
Created:
2025-10-01 07:27:19
Last Activity:
1 month ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-3415510-34748660-e0e9-429b-8eb0-2ab82302dd17.webp
Total Profit
$1,491
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$6,128.66
Markets traded
1,035
Trades
1,035
Largest win
$481.70
Profile views
351
Join date
2025-10-01 07:27:19
All-time rank
66186
All-time PnL
$1,490.55
All-time volume
$301,716.26
All-time profit
$1,490.55
Lifetime volume
$301,716.26
PnL series latest
$1,620.36
PnL series start
$1,703.59
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$13.05
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | No | 800 | $481.70 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | 1109.9914 | $475.23 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | 2297.89 | $455.16 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 910 | $-699.00 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? | Yes | 691.8953 | $-391.48 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 1200 | $-328.00 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 2800 | $0.50 | $0.51 | $1,414.00 | $14.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 2800 | $0.50 | $0.49 | $1,386.00 | $-14.00 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? | No | 299.9957 | $0.69 | $0.95 | $283.65 | $77.65 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | 1000 | $0.41 | $0.27 | $270.00 | $-136.00 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | Yes | 200 | $0.91 | $0.99 | $197.40 | $14.90 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | No | 800 | $481.70 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | 1109.9914 | $475.23 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | 2297.89 | $455.16 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | No | 599.99 | $391.99 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 799.9931 | $376.00 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | No | $0.14 | 123.32 | $17.26 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | $0.36 | 300 | $108.00 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | $0.40 | 100 | $40.00 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | $0.42 | 200 | $84.00 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | $0.43 | 200 | $86.00 |
Recent trades (1035)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? | No | $0.88 | 20 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? | No | $0.86 | 36.72 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" in September? | No | $0.24 | 12.78 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in September? | No | $0.04 | 145 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? | No | $0.82 | 95 |
Comments
2025-10-28 08:49:51
Argentina's National Electoral Chamber (CNE) started rolling in around 8 PM local time on Oct 27, with 60-70% of votes tallied by evening. These showed LLA crushing the popular vote at 41.1% (vs. UP's 24.5%, PRO's 15.2%, and others fragmented), but seat projections clarified the math: LLA would gain ~50-60 seats (totaling ~88-98, or about 34-38% of the chamber), falling short of UP's projected post-election total of ~105-110 seats (retaining most of their incumbents plus modest gains)
2025-10-29 15:41:29
This is still a great buy opportunity for Dec 31st, but October 31st was premature to bet yes IMO. The rules clearly say "cancellation" of ceasefire, not "violation."
2025-10-29 15:45:24
The rules seems clear that a "cancellation" of the ceasefire is required not a "violation" regardless of how overt and extreme these violations are. I was tempted to bet on October 31st when the new broke late last night and shares were still 13 cents, 2 days seems too short term for an official "cancellation."
2025-10-29 16:02:52
Rules are not YES for "violation" it's yes for a formal "cancellation." Two entirely different things.
2025-11-07 14:34:13
Your life is 76 shares?
2025-11-09 23:25:57
They stopped moving it about a week ago. It's just sitting off the coast of Morocco. Lots hinging on Justice Department’s OLC changing their opinion.
2025-11-11 03:56:53
One detail I'd add is the congressional briefing on November 5 by Rubio and Hegseth, and a White House Office of Legal Counsel official informed lawmakers that existing authorities for maritime drug boat strikes do not extend to land-based operations inside Venezuela. This legal assessment is cited as a key factor in holding off on escalation. I guess they're working to change the OLC decision now and it could be announced any week now.
2025-11-11 09:03:45
"Regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event, their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement."
2025-11-14 06:38:11
Both Nov 30 and Dec 31 markets are underpriced about 10% for YES, meaning your current position is overvalued 10%. That's happening right now.
2025-11-15 07:43:12
Maybe it won't, but this market has been overpriced for NO for most of the week now. Would've been a good time to sell and rebuy later.
2025-11-16 11:35:27
Analysts from the Soufan Center (November 15) estimated a 60-70% chance of limited strikes within two weeks if Maduro doesn’t concede, based on the buildup’s scale
2025-11-16 11:35:57
why not bet more than $5 then?
2025-11-16 11:58:42
Maduro has been begging to talk and concede for weeks…..
2025-11-17 14:44:32
Those two markets are intimately connected. You think this is all one big bluff? How long do you expect a force this size to loiter? Or you expect him to get taken out covert style or just run away?
2025-11-21 02:51:12
You could have said most of those things about the USA bombing Iran. It seems like anything goes these days, and it's forgotten in a week. Also just a single airstrike is all it takes here, that would definitely up the pressure on Maduro, avoid a lot of the backlash you've mentioned, and resolve this market to YES
2025-11-21 07:22:53
you could have got a better price and better odds in the actual Venezuela engagement market. That’s the opposite of free money
2025-11-23 16:18:10
I would be surprised if they bombed the same day or even the same week they announced the terrorist designation would be official. It just looks too contrived. They're going to try to do this the easy way if possible. Watch Nov 30th plummet to 0 quickly this week. The odds of 31 will drop to 30-40% and then back up to 70%+ in December.
2025-11-24 00:39:41
I did. Only holding 161 Dec now. Hedging a little with that.
2025-11-27 09:31:43
read carefully “ notable change in its shape” or “ visibly alter the balloon's appearance” 22 examples of that since 2000 alone
2025-11-27 09:33:41
I would have snapped up yes if I saw this still under 25%, especially considering the wind forecast
2025-11-29 00:16:46
there’s a $50 million bounty on his head issued by the United States….
2025-11-29 07:40:13
Something is gonna happen. The main point is whether or not the engagement will be acknowledged publicly or not.
2025-11-29 11:07:06
The door for talks was already open before they moved the Ford in. If they wanted talks, they wouldn't put a 50M bounty on Maduro's head and officially label his government a terrorist organization. They're spending hundreds of millions amassing that force and building up the counter-terrorism/narcotics narrative for what? To give up after Maduro flips the middle finger and waves a sword on TV? Maduro will be executed by his backers if he caves in. The USA can't strike deals with "terrorists." There's only one way this can end. The only question is when.
2025-11-29 11:59:46
ANY US military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
2025-11-29 12:00:32
Or do you expect UMA whales to rig another one?
2025-11-30 08:15:33
Why do you respond seriously to scam/shill accounts?
2025-12-01 02:24:32
I really doubt Kazakhstan forgot. The true odds should be at least 50:50.
2025-12-01 14:43:57
In the 2020/2021 Accords expansion, countries signed from different locations: for instance Khartoum (Sudan) and not Washington or Tel Aviv. What matters legally, as shown by past signings, is a formal signature of the bilateral (or trilateral) agreement between Israel and the joining country (with U.S. sponsorship or declaration) rather than necessarily a multilateral ceremony with heads of state.
2025-12-02 02:28:57
You're saying the signing is "insignificant" on one hand and that Trump and Netanyahu themselves must make a big show of it on the other hand. I could buy the argument that they'll wait to bundle with another country. Or maybe Putin had some influence when he met Tokaev shortly after the announcement? Both of those seem like more likely reasons to me.
2025-12-02 02:33:50
You should bet big on the Maduro Out market if you believe this. $1 for 20c
2025-12-04 05:35:42
It could happen any day. You’re putting up bond, picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. 20:1 on yes is probably break even at worst
2025-12-04 07:21:11
Cope with what? I’m up over 3x on this market now and playing 100% with profits. I’ve been betting both sides.
2025-12-05 05:41:20
If the stars line up and those with say think it's time, do you really think the holidays will factor in? Operations Just Cause, Linebacker II, Desert Fox, etc. all started just before XMas.
2025-12-06 10:58:08
people predictably overreacting to news and panic buying or panic selling like usual
2025-12-06 10:58:58
if only life were so simple
2025-12-08 01:50:41
It means he's in for emotional amounts of money and gloating and celebrating early again because his stake is up.
2025-12-08 01:59:25
Operations Just Cause, Linebacker II, Desert Fox, etc. all started just before XMas. But in this case, we don't need a full op, just a confirmed strike on a rando drug lab in the jungle and this market is settled.
2025-12-08 06:14:00
Honestly no. I promised my wife I'd build up from scratch, so I've never had more than 550 shares on any position (average 350 shares). Yet, I'm up $234 on this market as of now. That means if I were playing with your bankroll this whole time on this market, I'd be up $33,000 USD, selling all my positions at this moment without even having to gamble on any outcome.
2025-12-08 08:07:56
Operational readiness was established two weeks ago. A strike could happen any day. A single strike on a "drug lab" in a remote forest qualifies as YES. That's not much more extreme than the boat strikes already happening. It doesn't = WW3, "another war" etc. Enjoy your "12% bond".
2025-12-09 04:42:31
I admire your confidence and balls, honestly. I'm just not sure either way myself. Trump did say he "offered everything" many weeks ago, but it's clear nothing less than him gone is the only counter offer. So the real question is will Maduro accept, and it doesn't look like it. As far as this market goes, the key question is WHEN not IF. Maduro out market is trading at 9% for 2025. It costs about $200M/month to maintain the Ford strike group in the area, and it's needed elsewhere. You're betting all that for Maduro to mock the US, dance in public and Trump is going to shrug and leave? It's more likely to not happen than to happen this year, but I'm not confident you're getting a good price. +EV to sell and pocket a nice profit IMO
2025-12-09 04:48:42
"They will never strike the territory of this country. It would be the stupidest move ever, leading to another Iraq/Afghanistan situation." I think you're oversimplifying. Do you know how bad Iran could have gone? Trump blamed Afghanistan on poor leadership and truly believes he would have handled it better. He bombed Iran and still got a FIFA peace prize. He could strike a few "cartel assets" on land and it would be out of the news cycle in 1-2 weeks.
2025-12-09 05:23:41
How could AI be "person" of the year if it's not a person and not even AGI yet? Still nowhere near consciousness, hallucinating, mixing up obvious things. But 44% !? Where is this number coming from?
2025-12-12 06:26:18
"U.S. preparing to seize more tankers off Venezuelan coast, sources say." - seems like YES is overpriced atm. It will take weeks to months to see how this economic strategy pans out.
2025-12-12 17:03:43
That’s what I was thinking. So much more risk with any kind of military engagement. It would be foolish to try something prematurely when crippling Maduro’s main source of income could be enough.
2025-12-12 17:06:40
ith that said there’s historical precedence (including in this region) of naval blockades and other siege methods in combined with limited strikes
2025-12-13 00:56:24
this is almost as exciting as the last two times he said it
2025-12-13 07:14:45
BREAKING: Trump talks a lot of shit.
2025-12-13 07:35:27
"A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation." They didn't specifically clarify what constitutes "official." So this market could go whatever way the UMA whales vote it.
2025-12-14 05:30:05
nothing screams conviction like betting $27
2025-12-17 06:54:52
It's not relevant. Any kinetic strike impacting Venezuelan soil = YES even if they only hit a tree and nobody is nearby.
2025-12-18 00:12:28
that doesn’t read like ChatGPT just common sense
2025-12-18 04:33:03
why 9pm rather than the more typical 12 am to 4 am window?
2025-12-21 09:36:43
I guess it depends on how long they feel they have to accomplish objectives. There are historical examples of this very type of thing combined with limited strikes. Hitting a key port needed to load these ships would definitely up the pressure.
2025-12-21 10:33:36
Don't educate fish like @dcaSPX6900 just take his money and hedge in the other markets. Easy game.
2025-12-22 02:17:49
Lots can still happen 26-31. I’d be nervous putting up 79k for an extra 6 k…. gl
2025-12-22 05:41:08
This is addictive :)
2025-12-28 18:48:48
there will never be a consensus of credible reporting on this or an official statement from the White House. That’s the point.
2025-12-29 02:25:53
"The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting." - rules are clear Trumps usual ramblings are not this.
2025-12-29 02:28:17
"The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting." If the POTUS or Maduro wanted this random explosion officially credited to the USA it would have happened days ago. Lucky pump though. I was just kicking myself for not buying Jan 31 NO shares when they were cheaper.
2025-12-29 05:18:34
Jan 31 will yield the biggest returns over the next weeks. It seems clear to me this "quarantine" strategy will be in play for at least 2 months. Then we'll see. I'm not ruling out an official strike at some point.
2025-12-29 05:30:09
Yes: "The White House declined to comment." "There has been no public report of an attack from the Venezuelan government or any other authorities in the region."
2025-12-29 08:28:42
Dude, this won't resolve on some random comment Trump made on a podcast without a consensus of confirming reporting that something happened including a location. You and I have peanuts on the line. Other's have hundreds of thousands and there's 40M in volume.
2025-12-29 10:59:15
The rules clearly say missile strikes or exchange of fire not covert ops
2025-12-29 11:00:51
it’s just a requote of that NYT article. They will have to clearly name the officials
2025-12-29 11:26:26
read the comments in the X post the company posted an official statement saying it was an accident
2025-12-29 14:36:17
The only evidence is Trump talking shit (which he's well known for). Only a fool would resolve this before Trump has confirmed it, before the "officials" have been names, and before any strike location has even been slightly "confirmed."
2025-12-29 14:45:58
Lots of pumping by YES holders so here's the cliffs: Trump talked some shit in a podcast (this seems confirmed). All the "credible reporting" is simply other news sources quoting a single NYT piece that provided no additional information besides speculating on what Trump meant. (1) No confirmation of strike site (the chemical plant itself released an official statement that it was an accident). (2) Trump hasn't officially verified any details (White House declined to comment) (3) No consensus of reporting about any actual kinetic strike, just reporting about some podcast comments.
2025-12-29 14:47:23
(4) "Officials" have not been named or spoken publicly.
2025-12-29 14:51:45
Where was the strike? What location? Has Trump confirmed his comments? Get real.
2025-12-29 15:00:19
NYT confirmed that Trump said what he said. They didn't confirm any actual strike. Thre has been no identification of any strike location or any credible confirmation other than Trumps shit talking on a podcast. "Just vibes and anonymous sources"
2025-12-29 15:05:35
Trump never said Venezuela. That part is speculation and nobody has confirmed it. We'll see soon enough I guess, but I really doubt this will be officially confirmed. I also wonder why no strike location has been identified in Venezuela. A big hit on a "facility" would get noticed.
2025-12-29 16:53:54
He didn’t say anything "to the news" , it was a brief quote from a podcast .Trump didn’t actually even confirm whatever he’s talking about happened in Venezuela (if anything happened at all). All the reporting is just a rehashing of the New York Times repeating what he said in a podcast. No strike location confirmed by any reporting of any type has confirmed any strike in Venezuela.
2025-12-29 16:56:13
Trump didn't confirm whatever he's talking about was in Venezuela in the podcast. It's all speculation and multiple sources rereporting the NYT reporting on his random comments in a podcast. There is no sign of any strike in Venezuela. Not a single eyewitness account. Just a chemical plant fire (which released an official statement saying it was an accident). Bit premature bud.
2025-12-29 17:00:43
People screaming resolve, did you even read the original NYT article? "They have a big plant or a big facility where the ships come from,” Mr. Trump said, without saying where it was or explicitly identifying Venezuela as the target. “Two nights ago we knocked that out.” Unless a consensus of credible reporting or an official statement confirms whatever TF Trump is talking about, it's obviously massively premature to "resolve." If this isn't a big nothing burger, we'll find out soon enough, so calm down....
2025-12-29 17:03:42
Also what "facility." The only evidence of any site that could match what Trump was talking about was the chemical warehouse, which itself put out an official statement saying it was an accident.
2025-12-29 17:07:02
They're all rehashing the NYT, which is not reporting about any confirmed strike. It's reporting on what Trump said. Nobody is doubting he said what he said in that podcast. But he didn't actually confirm they struck Venezuela in that podcast even.
2025-12-29 17:38:59
They're all just rehashing this original source: [link removed] with Trump NOT "explicitly identifying Venezuela as the target" If nobody has yet, they never will. Just Trump goofing and costing suckers money again.
2025-12-29 17:49:04
Good luck guys. Maybe Trump will confirm he was talking about Venezuela in the coming days. Wish I could buy more NO for Jan 31, but I promised my wife just the one deposit.
2025-12-29 18:05:22
"without saying where it was or explicitly identifying Venezuela as the target" - did you even bother to read it?
2025-12-29 18:07:02
"without saying where it was or explicitly identifying Venezuela as the target" - [link removed] - for those who can't get through the paywall All other "sources" are just repeating this one
2025-12-30 01:04:16
The point is that nobody actually knows. Trump won't say and there's no evidence of any strike in Venezuela. That chemical plant has nothing to do with boats.
2025-12-30 01:12:09
It's not about whether or not Trump is "lying." The point is that Trump didn't verify any details. Absolutely nobody has said where/how/what. Just take the L and cope better.
2025-12-30 01:14:13
You want some NO betters to lose 100s of k with no confirmation of where/when/how so you can get your $7.......If Trump won't give any details this is impossible to resolve. Get it?
2025-12-30 02:00:34
The rules never changed even slightly. You're just in the wrong market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31?tid=1766988661017
2025-12-30 02:05:20
You were going on and on all day about the "rules being changed" Nothing was changed. It's always been clear. You're in the wrong market bud: https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31?tid=1766988661017
2025-12-30 02:19:21
LOL, bro you were just saying they "changed the rules" You will go on an on crying no mater what because you lost your money..."No, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is not part of the U.S. military; it's an independent, civilian agency that gathers foreign intelligence for national security, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the President"
2025-12-30 02:19:21
No, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is not part of the U.S. military; it's an independent, civilian agency that gathers foreign intelligence for national security, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the President
2025-12-30 02:21:40
YES holders coping hard. Learn from mistakes instead of making excuses. (1) Read rules carefully (2) Choose the correct market (https://polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31?tid=1766988661017). No, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is not part of the U.S. military; it's an independent, civilian agency that gathers foreign intelligence for national security, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the President
2025-12-30 02:23:34
Also "sources familiar with the matter" isn't confirmation of anything by CNN anyway.
2025-12-30 02:24:33
The rules have never changed man..... They're exactly as they were from the beginning.
2025-12-30 02:26:19
You have no evidence US Special Forces were involved. Nobody does. Or you wouldn't be posting CNN articles about CIA strikes from "sources familiar with the matter"
2026-01-01 07:33:25
Rules do say "A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.)."
2026-01-03 09:04:53
Air strikes and land invasions are not the same. I can't believe I could have gotten $1 for 4 cents if I'd seen this soon enough.
2026-01-03 09:18:54
There's definitely troops on the ground in the middle of a bombing campaign. Trump also needs dead soldiers before the midterms.
2026-01-05 14:14:27
I think it's Bella 1 before January 09th or nothing. No tankers are leaving or approaching Venezuela now, and Trump has nothing to gain politically from stirring the pot while trying to negotiate with Venezuelan leaders. 72% by January 31 seems ridiculous, but I'm still licking my wounds from Saturday.
2026-01-05 14:46:09
Maybe Trump will bring more attention to this international embarrassment and agitate Russia and new Venezuelan situation to seize and empty, aging tanker. 76%
2026-01-05 15:22:55
Oh ...chit.... [link removed]
2026-01-07 15:00:02
If the Russians intercept and take it back does it count :) Well played YES holders.
2026-01-27 02:48:16
LOL, you think he's literally talking about the weather or that he's bought 127k shares thinking inclement weather would qualify hahaha
2026-02-24 14:29:47
Imagine thinking it was going to happen today, lol The Ford carrier group won't even be in place for days and there are talks confirmed in 2 days. Bet June instead of your lotto ticket moonshots.
2026-02-24 15:45:48
But the CIA "insider" said it would be tonight!
2026-02-24 17:47:08
Good karma for people who want a more peaceful world.
2026-02-24 18:12:44
You're gonna make 4k bro!!
2026-02-25 04:50:46
TACO is so stupid. He didn't "chicken out" if he was bluffing from the start. Also timing matters. This is going to be a big deal if it happens, not some careless limited strike. Only retards think they would impulsively strike in Feb before the Ford strike group is even in place, before they can even pretend they looked at Irans draft proposal, etc. Premature ejaculation boys.
2026-02-25 06:15:55
This aged like milk on a warm summer day.
2026-02-25 06:20:54
Oh my gosh! The CIA "insider" was just engagement farming after all?! I thought he was risking it all to expose highly classified military planning.
2026-02-25 13:37:18
Going to have to eat that $115 bro. Lotto doesn't strike every time.
2026-02-25 17:42:02
3 more days. Don't give up moonboys!
2026-02-27 14:20:32
28% chance in less than 40 hours LOL Maybe you'll get lucky, but either way you're massively overpaying for YES. Strikes in March likely though
2026-02-27 15:11:08
Lots of premature ejaculation going on here.
2026-02-27 16:59:05
21% return over 36 hours for Feb 28th: {APY} = (1 + 0.21)^{243.5} - 1
Even just looking at this, 1.21^{243.5} is astronomically huge — it’s far beyond any realistic APY, essentially infinite.
Conclusion: A 21% gain over 36 hours, if compounded, is mathematically insane and not sustainable in real-world finance.
2026-02-27 16:59:16
Almost free.
2026-02-28 01:30:59
How braindead do you have to be to spend 19c on Yes for Feb 28th (less than 28 hours) and commercial flights aren't even suspended until Sunday. Even 3c wouldn't be a good deal.
2026-02-28 02:31:12
He's scalping that market. It doesn't expire until 2027. Can you see the difference?
2026-02-28 05:37:39
You could have put all that money on March 31st and got a really nice return.
2026-02-28 05:42:13
Feb 28 21% It's hard to get much more retarded than this lol
2026-02-28 05:44:22
Even 3% is too high at this point. Commercial flights are still operating as normal for the next 24 hours at least. It's not like they're going to urge people to leave and then strike without even giving people a few days to actually leave. There's a pretty good chance it won't even happen in March.
2026-03-02 13:00:42
What an absurd spectacle a high profile visit to China would be in the middle of a disastrous, destructive regime change war with one of China's valuable partners. Even if China hadn't already publicly condemned it, it's a bad look.
2026-03-02 17:05:33
[link removed]
2026-03-04 03:29:50
The Bloomberg report says that just about a month before the planned summit, Trump’s removal of an official seen as friendly to Xi — along with broader U.S. military actions (including strikes in Iran) — is now seen as increasing tension between Washington and Beijing. This dynamic could make substantive talks harder than originally anticipated, because it erodes some of the “trust signals” that a summit usually relies on. [link removed]
2026-03-04 16:02:11
It's like saying limes are sour, so bananas must be too because they're both fruit.
2026-03-04 16:29:23
Sell your house and buy up yes !
2026-03-06 04:02:56
And yet, that's exactly what you're doing.
2026-03-06 06:25:29
This isn't a market about what really happened. It's illegal to record destruction from strikes in Israel and truth is the first casualty of war. I expect we see about less than 5% of strikes reported.
2026-03-07 06:58:57
Nothing except a major regional war escalating out of control. China is currently working out a deal to supply Iran with parts in exchange for letting its tankers through Hormuz. How absolutely moronic would a flashy visit to China be in the middle of an active conflict. These official visits are all about optics and symbolism and everything has changed since they scheduled this trip.
2026-03-08 10:51:49
You think they're going to do a uranium extraction mission in the next 3 weeks?
2026-03-08 14:21:09
I truly hope you're right simply for entertainment value. Would be such an absurd spectacle. Trump actually had the arrogance to pre-announce that China would put on a big show for his arrival. Best ever! All ego and optics. He won't go unless that is still expected to be reality. If it is reality....lol. How spineless of China. Will be cringe. Hard enough already to be more cringe than the Grand Theft Auto/movie clips making fun of their strikes on the official White House X account. Nothing would surprise me theses days.
2026-03-10 14:05:30
LOL .Great handle and picture
2026-03-12 03:52:32
Imagine thinking at any point the regime was going to fall? LOL Fox news rotting brains.
2026-03-14 06:30:31
Why would they expose troops to missile/drone attacks. To achieve what objective? The strike sent a clear message which is enough.
2026-03-14 10:16:55
I'm going to put up my $293 to win another $7 by tomorrow. Thanks guys! Free money.
2026-03-14 11:15:56
You're going to 20x your money bro! Exciting.
2026-03-14 13:29:33
Definitely bro.
2026-03-14 15:12:41
$6 more to squeeze out of you morons
2026-03-14 15:47:01
Lots of things are going to happen. Trump exposing troops to missile/drone attacks on Kharg island isn't one of them. Later this year, barring a ceasefire, there might be a limited ground operation. Find me a better place to get 2% in 12 hours?
2026-03-14 17:50:02
You're gonna be rich tomorrow.
2026-03-15 00:49:50
Lottery ticket guys, why not at least go for something slightly possible, like Netanyahu dead?
2026-03-15 04:36:17
Just curious. Is there even a little bit of evidence that led you to believe the USA would expose troops to drone/missile attacks for no possible strategic advantage? Or are you trading on pure vibes and following "insiders?" There was never even 0.001% chance troops would hit the ground by today. By December maybe.
2026-03-16 16:00:41
Fish don't realize the bet isn't about if Netanyahu is dead or not. The bet is, will it be confirmed. = 0.000001% fat juicy plankton for the whales.
2026-03-17 05:38:00
I did warn you bro....
2026-03-17 17:55:59
wtf. That last one was up
2026-03-20 04:36:07
We need an April market....
2026-03-21 00:26:42
You have $0 invested grifter..
2026-03-21 06:04:27
Was talking to HostileTender, which is dumb of me since he's a badly coded bot.
2026-03-21 08:40:49
I did quite well. I'm took a long position on futures at $83, so I'm up on my hedge and my PM no bets.
2026-03-23 13:32:40
requires clear public confirmation from ---- BOTH ----- the United States government and the government of Iran
2026-03-24 03:55:44
How tragically misinformed/uninformed you have to be to believe this
2026-03-24 05:06:27
In the fog of intense propaganda, it seems many don't realize this is total war now, and it's going to be a long time coming.
2026-03-24 06:05:51
Best to just use your own brain and stick to first principles. It could be an arb or hedge position, and you can't possibly know his entire portfolio. You had a chance to see Yes for 40+% yesterday and slept on it....This is total war.
2026-03-24 06:40:35
We need an April market soon!
2026-03-24 13:42:00
Still a decent chance you'll get there. Trump fucked you yesterday.
2026-03-24 14:20:19
April market please.....
2026-03-24 15:16:33
I imagine there's lots of emotional bias and wishful thinking. It sucks coming to grips with the fact that this is a big deal that's not going to wrap up any time soon. It's almost comical to think Iran would meet with Kushner/Witkoff after what happened in the past. The arrogance is baffling.
2026-03-24 17:39:06
Oh... Looks like Iran is sending negotiators after all! [link removed]
2026-03-25 20:05:34
You're against the most powerful people in the world pulling every trick they can imagine to keep paper oil down. We'll see 110, but you're too early.
2026-03-26 07:53:01
Less than a week before you blow off the remaining 15k of your profits. You could have made a healthy profit betting on December bro. What a shame.
2026-03-26 09:41:39
Nothing good about US soldiers getting killed and the country getting further into an escalation trap that will destroy the Middle East.
2026-03-27 04:41:37
You're starting to realize that Iran has the upper hand, but you're still not seeing that the USA doesn't have escalation dominance or the final say on when the fighting stops.
2026-03-27 04:43:44
Both sides have to agree for this market to resolve yes. It's not happening.
2026-03-27 16:12:58
You're too greedy. You might have had a shot if you put all that money into April and still get a 50% return.
2026-03-27 16:16:26
It's too late man. The escalation trap has already sprung. Pretty good chance of some ground operation eventually. For example to secure uranium.
2026-03-27 16:18:57
They have no strategic or tactical reason to attack at this stage. April much more likely. Don't say I didn't warn you. All the yes markets are overpriced by hype right now though, so I won't buy in.
2026-03-29 00:43:19
Feb 28th was a much different situation. Everything was in place and there were realistic strategic and tactical goals. While there is some random off chance US forces could enter before April, it was never more than 0.5%. The fact that you don't see the difference shows that Feb 28th was just dumb luck for you.
2026-03-29 05:32:21
I hope you do bro.
2026-03-29 06:24:32
It's 10 am Sunday morning in Tehran already. You lost.
2026-03-29 06:26:27
The whole community appreciates your donations.
2026-03-29 06:37:30
Trump literally announced to the world that there won't be escalation until after Easter. That should at least make be a bit more cautious instead of full porting your whole portfolio......
2026-03-29 07:23:50
I do the opposite. When Trump pumps markets, it's usually a good time to fade them. In this case it's clear he's telegraphing partially. If you can't imagine a tactical or strategic reason to put troops on the ground (even briefly) you're just spewing cash. Later this year to secure uranium, it's possible. Not by Tuesday though.
2026-03-29 07:24:41
You lost. GG
2026-03-29 13:12:26
Don't take all my trolling the wrong way man. I'm rooting for you really. People going for legendary flips are part of the lifeblood of these markets.
2026-03-29 17:09:21
You know if something like this happened, the 4k you're going to win isn't going to even slightly make up for how bad your life is going to get in the long run.
2026-03-29 18:21:32
What is your goal then? You just want to see a bunch of US soldiers get killed and this war escalated past the point of return?
2026-03-29 19:39:45
Okay, let's see.
2026-03-29 20:10:54
If @NerdOnWeed had auto sell on, he could have made 100K+ in his sleep. Poor guy.
2026-03-30 05:11:48
Bro if you had a limit sell at 50c last night you'd be sitting on 100k realized profit in cash right now! You're really don't even have pump insurance for this? Hero!
2026-03-30 05:14:52
You could have sold your position for over $100k cash last night! No limit buys set even for extremely lucky spots like that?
2026-03-30 05:26:41
You must be really rich though to pass up $100k in cash when it spiked to over 50c last night. Incredible to put up $100k in realized cash for a less than 48hr deadline.
2026-03-30 15:31:22
Where are they going to land first? Share your alpha.
2026-03-31 04:13:16
You could have sold this position for 100k cash realized profit less than two days ago! Feb 28th was totally different. There were clear tactical and strategic objectives clearly established. Stop scrolling X and watching Fox news after smoking weed :)
2026-03-31 05:44:45
You've been tricked, and you obviously don't understand geopolitics. Failing to open Hormuz will be the end of the petrodollar that props up the Ponzi scheme of US treasury bonds.
2026-03-31 08:01:22
March 31 Yes chuds - you lose
2026-03-31 13:31:33
100% But making rent and having fun would be even better.
2026-03-31 13:33:41
Gonna hold March 31st right to the end and squeeze $2 more out of the nerd smoking weed.
2026-03-31 15:35:47
Trump doesn't get to decide this one. Both sides must agree.
2026-03-31 17:49:55
Maybe sometime before this is all over there will be some ground operation. We're just getting started in this war and many bros already prematurely ejaculated. The girl barely touched their penis's and cum was squirting everywhere.
2026-03-31 18:22:04
None
2026-03-31 18:25:08
I'd be surprised if anything happened in April too. What strategic or tactical options do they have seriously?
2026-03-31 18:26:34
You're just lighting $55 on fire. Buying 10 lottery tickets is better EV
2026-03-31 18:28:06
I can't believe Fox news lied to me.
2026-04-01 05:55:58
It doesn't troll anybody. You just give whales an opportunity to farm fish for 2 days.
2026-04-01 06:41:00
Let's go April market.....
2026-04-01 17:27:07
People holding/buying March 31 Yes are plankton for the whales, nothing more.
2026-04-02 15:52:46
24k is nothing to you, so I can't wait to see your April bet. I'm rooting for you!
2026-04-03 04:37:14
Is this a serious comment?
2026-04-03 04:53:35
Lay off the Fox news bro
2026-04-03 15:53:14
Helicopters heading straight into central Iran to search for this pilot. Then IF they spot him Yes holders going to cash in. GG!
2026-04-04 05:22:39
This is humiliating in asymmetric warfare. US officials have announced countless times that Iran is decimated and the US/Israel have control of the skies. But they've lost over six aircraft. That's like a 20 year old man getting a broken nose and a black eye from a 7 year old in a fist fight.
2026-04-04 07:40:58
statistically, most militaries lose multiple aircraft including F35 and F15 in one month of training? Lots of cope.
2026-04-04 10:25:25
Endless useless comments. Don't worry Yes holders. If a ground operation happened to rescue the pilots and the USA decides to make details public, it will all be revealed in good time. Still weeks to go.
2026-04-14 04:21:46
You're hopeful for a global depression and possible global war so you can win a few bucks?
2026-04-15 17:18:52
You've been watching too much Robert Pape. Surely even if Trump was delusional enough to risk a ground invasion (which would take 100s of thousands of troops, not 20k marines), he must have some reasonable people around him to tell him the obvious.
2026-04-18 10:42:42
That was a bump from big orders in a thin order book. No good news on your side bro.
2026-04-21 18:03:30
I want peace, but I feel sorry for people who bet 96c on talks by April 30th.
2026-04-21 18:04:50
Still praying for reason and sanity in this world. Just take the L Trump.
2026-04-22 13:57:46
Are you new? Trump announces a lot of nonsense.
2026-05-11 20:01:12
Should have sold at 12c (30x)
2026-05-12 14:42:39
GG
2026-05-26 02:57:04
I don't understand the optimism. As soon as they started talking about mandatory Abraham Accords, I knew Israel was getting their way and no new agreement any time soon.
2026-05-26 15:08:06
There's a lot of information missing from your analysis.
2026-06-01 07:32:00
Dude the market was scheduled to resolve at 11:59 ET. Blame yourself for putting money up on a 0% shot.
2026-06-11 18:42:44
Are you new here? Did you see what happened in the blockade announcement market after Trump straight up said "the blockade will be lifted." Everybody knows he's FOS. Iran denies is immediately and Polymarket clarified. It went to 0 in two days. Good luck.
2026-06-17 06:18:06
It's explicitly labelled a "draft" read the rules
2026-06-17 16:27:43
That's good for the Yes side. Am I missing something?
2026-06-19 18:06:50
if "scammer" = "great trader you're jealous of" I couldn't agree more
2026-06-20 05:32:32
That's why it's only 8c. You could probably get No shares for much cheaper in the coming days.
2026-06-27 09:22:26
This is government-to-government coordination of assistance. That is the definition of diplomatic activity. The fact that the assistance is humanitarian does not change the diplomatic character of the entry.
2026-07-02 12:05:17
How many people have to die for delusions?
2026-07-02 12:20:50
It's more than a little creepy how you obsess over tsybka. Nothing but a solid guy based on my interactions.
2026-07-03 13:29:48
This guy is giving me lots of "definitely alive" vibes
2026-07-05 13:43:07
The ballz to be sitting on 99+ % if you're not an insider. 2 more 13.5M days on a long weekend is tough but not impossible.
2026-07-06 16:18:49
The Israeli Ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, publicly stated that the next round of direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations will take place in Rome on July 14–15.
2026-07-07 06:13:02
You need to check more carefully. Multiple photos have been shown. Links in these comments, in the discord dispute thread, multiple other places.
2026-07-07 11:13:56
He cried. That much is clear. But that's not the bet. The bet is "visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on his face in any photograph or video." That much is not so clear. Maybe we'll get some better photos or videos before the final decision?
2026-07-08 06:55:44
If they actually restrict traffic so much that we don't even see a single week with 420 ships this year, they won't have leverage anymore, they'll have played their hand. Iran is showing they're not bluffing, but once the world is forced to accept Iranian control over Hormuz, Iran has every incentive to keep traffic moving through their designated route efficiently.
2026-07-08 14:30:45
There are some key differences with Bab el-Mandeb such as no lack of alternative and methods to keep Portwatch down without causing a global catastrophe. BTW, I meant hoping that the economy gets fd so you can win some tiny bet was kinda sad when I made that comment a while ago. That doesn't mean I bet Hormuz will have 420 ships tracked in one week this year because I want to believe that. I think less than 60c is underpriced. Let's see.
2026-07-09 10:16:46
lol
2026-07-09 11:15:15
Only 5+ more months to go. I like this No bet though. In the event of an economic meltdown, you'll have enough profits to compensate for a couple months easy.
2026-07-09 11:19:33
Bro... You said you hoped ships stayed away from Hormuz because you had some micro bet running. I thought that was funny because it's the definition of betting with emotion. You were hoping for an outcome that will enviably be a disaster for you long term, so that you can win short term micro money. The smarter perspective would be "I hope Hormuz normalizes, but I don't think it will, so I'm hedging a bit against the global depression."
2026-07-09 14:05:37
Do your homework on SPR reserve levels, paper oil markets, crack spreads, the sour crude needed from Hormuz for diesel and jet fuel. You realize these are the entire reason for the ceasefire in April and the MOU now right? This is Iran's "nuclear option" and why the USA will eventually fold. Good luck.
2026-07-09 18:04:47
Dude, Hormuz 7DMA back to 60 by August 01 is highly unlikely at this point. Congrats. I wouldn't sell my Yes for 4-5c though. I'm thinking about the December market now. If you have the premium model of GPT, it should do a good job of explaining why Hormuz is critical for the global economy, especially if you feed those points specifically in your prompt. I wouldn't rely on AI to made real money decisions in these market though man. GL.
2026-07-10 11:58:30
With what evidence? Did you read the rules?
2026-07-10 15:34:02
Rules are strict here. Kuwait and Bahrain are not likely do publicly disclose sensitive information on targets and interceptor success. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information, so OSINT videos on X aren't going to cut it either.
2026-07-11 20:55:42
Nobody should have to pay over 99p for 99 Flake ice cream IMO. Binface resonates with the voters.
2026-07-12 07:02:17
Read the rules carefully?
2026-07-12 07:40:05
It's Iran's word against the official sources in Kuwait, Bahrain, etc. They will avoid publicly admitting any hits for obvious reasons unless the evidence becomes impossible to deny. Like the last time when a video emerged showing a drone strike on the airport.
2026-07-12 08:30:40
The first casualty of war is the truth. How can you be certain that the videos you've seen are legit? We saw the same thing for July 9th exactly. Lots of claims from Iran, plenty of videos of smoke, etc. Odds went to 85%+ Yes, but in the end Kuwait and Bahrain denied everything and claimed 100% interceptions. So who should we believe? Official government sources or random OSINT accounts that could very well be propaganda, misinformation.
2026-07-12 13:12:38
Don't stress man. The rules are clear and there are 3 days grace to accumulate evidence. If there is qualifying evidence someone will propose Yes, and you'll eventually win. GL
2026-07-12 16:59:17
Source: Trust me bro
2026-07-12 17:50:55
Should go Yes. The Kuwait Ministry of Defense reports just need time verification.
2026-07-12 17:52:30
Multiple reports (including from credible OSINT accounts) are citing statements from Kuwait’s Ministry of Defense / Army spokesperson confirming Iranian attacks on July 12.
Kuwaiti authorities have stated that Iran attacked:
Three northern land border checkpoints with Iraq.
One offshore drilling platform belonging to the Kuwait Oil Company.
2026-07-13 05:17:22
Three day period for July 09th is up. So what are we waiting for now?
2026-07-13 10:47:34
July 12 and 13 actually have the required confirmation. I haven't seen any sufficient evidence for July 09th. Kuwait and Bahrain both denied any impacts for those dates. Why do you think it will go Yes? The rules are quite strict.
2026-07-15 12:25:29
What evidence do you have of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announcing its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU? What incentive would they even have to actually do that?
2026-07-15 12:38:12
No, the July 13, 2026 statements by Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei do not qualify as a triggering announcement under the market rules.
2026-07-15 12:43:56
Trump also said it was "over" but the US withdrawal market hasn't resolved Yes either. Read the rules carefully. There's still a 20% chance of high level diplomatic meetings this month. Neither side has unambiguously declared that participation in negotiations is unconditionally, 100% over.
2026-07-19 06:42:48
That was a good play to buy at 30 and sell at 60. If idiots copy him thoughtlessly with no strategy or idea why they are betting besides "durrr tsybka did it," then they deserve to lose their money.
2026-07-19 06:47:07
tsybka's followers didn't dump the price to 40 moron. It was the clarification from polymarket. High demand for No would increase the price.
2026-07-19 12:19:52
tsybka is a swing trader. You didn't know? He does this nearly 100% of the time in a variety of markets whether he posts on X or not.
2026-07-19 15:52:52
Everybody knows this. It doesn't make it certain that he'll make an idiot of himself by getting in the team photo, especially if it's Spain who's 60% to win. GL
2026-07-21 11:21:11
APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (@AP) — #Kuwait says #Iran again attacked power and desalination plants, causing damage to the crucial facilities. - @jongambrellAP
2026-07-21 11:21:40
SEVERAL KUWAITI POWER AND WATER DESALINATION PLANTS WERE ATTACKED ON MONDAY IN IRANIAN ATTACK - MINISTRY
(@WalterBloomberg)
2026-07-22 04:24:37
Was Monday.
2026-07-22 10:05:23
Netanyahu is going to skip the funeral because the White House hasn't confirmed a sit down with Trump? That would look so bad. Or he goes to the funeral and Trump ignores him? 46c seems underpriced....
2026-07-23 15:03:54
Read the rules carefully. There will be no resolution for 3 days after the end date.
2026-07-23 15:40:58
Since when does Iran continuing firing unprovoked? It's never happened.
2026-07-23 16:05:13
You must be a military strategist of the highest order.
2026-07-24 14:46:53
Betting Netanyahu won't attend Graham's funeral at 75c + seems really -EV
2026-07-27 16:01:28
Quick. Somebody get me some copium...I'm all out!!!!
2026-07-31 06:53:24
Hamas officials have explicitly stated that no disarmament steps will occur until Israel withdraws and meets other conditions. This is a classic contingent plan, which the rules exclude. The available language centres on “inventory and storage” under a Palestinian body rather than a clear public commitment to relinquish or dismantle the military. No formal, non-contingent policy directive from acknowledged top leadership has been located.
2026-07-31 08:21:25
Are we talking about the same Bibi!?
2026-08-02 05:31:05
Pretty easy to see that TACO coming.
2026-08-03 06:43:21
Would be shocked if PM clarified Yes, directly contradicting their own specific, strict rules.
2026-08-04 23:42:07
It's really straight forward. July 31 23:59 ET is the absolute last minute a strike can still happen. Any strike after that point automatically results in No for this date. If a strike happened on July 31st at 23:58 and there was no further qualifying action for 14 days after that, this market resolves Yes on August 14th. Clear?
2026-08-04 23:44:07
Death and destruction from the sky every single day. Hegseth promised.
2026-09-06 07:30:04
It's likely the person who created this market and wrote the rules didn't have Yom Kippur in mind, but these tail risks are part of the game. Intention shouldn't take precedence over a strict reading of the rules. What matters above all is that we can all be confident that PM will consistently rule/clarify in line with a strict reading of the rules. That was the very problem with the Microstrategy drama and something PM has improved on noticeably in recent months.
2026-09-06 08:07:24
I agree they probably didn’t have Yom Kippur in mind, but I think that cuts the other way. “Initiates” is broad enough to create ambiguity, not broad enough to clearly exclude a closure that physically begins during the market window. The rules explicitly exclude weather, airline restrictions, regional closures, etc., yet say nothing about scheduled or holiday closures. Adding that exception afterward would be rewriting the rules based on inferred intent.
Recent “spirit” clarifications matter, but consistency and credibility also depend on people being able to rely on the published criteria. If the intended market was only about new security-driven closures, that should have been written into the rules. The cleaner outcome is to honor the current wording and fix the omission in future markets.
2026-09-06 08:18:54
Yes—that is the sharper contradiction.
He is effectively saying two things at once:
1. the current rules already permit a NO interpretation without adding anything; but
2. future rules should explicitly exclude holiday closures so this problem does not happen again.
If the existing wording already clearly accomplished that exclusion, the future addition would merely be redundant. By saying it needs to be made explicit going forward, he is implicitly acknowledging that the current rules failed to say it clearly. At that point, “overlooking” the omission this time means using inferred intent to supply a restriction the published rules did not actually contain.
I’d rebut it like this:
> But that’s exactly the problem. If future markets need to explicitly say that pre-planned or holiday closures don’t count, you’re implicitly acknowledging that the current rules don’t clearly say that. You can’t simultaneously argue that the present wording already excludes Yom Kippur and that this exclusion needs to be added explicitly next time.
>
> Of course they can fix the drafting in future markets. But the omission has consequences in this one. Otherwise the rule becomes: when the written criteria accidentally capture something the creator didn’t anticipate, we retroactively read in the exception they would have written had they noticed it. That may preserve the intended theme of the market, but it is no longer simply applying the published rules.
2026-09-06 08:19:35
But that’s exactly the problem. If future markets need to explicitly say that pre-planned or holiday closures don’t count, you’re implicitly acknowledging that the current rules don’t clearly say that. You can’t simultaneously argue that the present wording already excludes Yom Kippur and that this exclusion needs to be added explicitly next time.
Of course they can fix the drafting in future markets. But the omission has consequences in this one. Otherwise the rule becomes: when the written criteria accidentally capture something the creator didn’t anticipate, we retroactively read in the exception they would have written had they noticed it. That may preserve the intended theme of the market, but it is no longer simply applying the published rules.
2026-09-06 08:22:29
Of course they can fix the drafting in future markets. But the omission has consequences in this one. Otherwise the rule becomes: when the written criteria accidentally capture something the creator didn’t anticipate, we retroactively read in the exception they would have written had they noticed it. That may preserve the intended theme of the market, but it is no longer simply applying the published rules.
2026-09-09 07:43:11
The Derya strike should count because CENTCOM itself identified Derya as struck “near Kharg Island,” while Iranian reporting placed the relevant tanker about 4 miles from Kharg in the anchorage area. Iran’s formally declared straight-baseline system uses the southern end of Kharg as a baseline point, making much of the east/southeast anchorage Iranian internal waters under Iran’s claimed maritime boundaries. The market rules explicitly say a U.S. strike qualifies if it directly impacts Iranian territory, “including any internal waters,” and further favor territory claimed and under Iran’s de facto control where boundaries are disputed. Therefore, if Derya was in that Kharg anchorage when struck, the stronger textual reading is that the munition directly impacted qualifying Iranian internal waters even though the U.S. disputes Iran’s baseline claim.
2026-09-09 08:01:57
Come to think of it, Downy is actually on the landward side of Iran's claimed baseline, by roughly 9 km in a simple local projection. "Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify." - That should include internal waters.
2026-09-09 11:58:13
If it was predetermined to be Yes, then why is it not 99.9%-100% right now genius?
2026-09-09 12:02:31
Literally nobody believes that. Also if they clarified that the holiday didn't count that would be literally changing the rules as written where only weather was excluded. If we can't trust the company to follow the rules as written strictly, where does that leave us. You lost. Move on.
2026-09-09 12:17:07
Again. If it was predetermined Yes, The market would be at least 98c. Changing the rules would be the opposite. For example, they say "holidays don't count" in the rules, everyone bets, then they add a clarification to say suddenly holidays don't count. If you followed the rules strictly, this is a clear yes. Or do you want everyone constantly guessing what the market makers intentions were and if they're going to follow the rules this time, nobody trusting the rules will be followed and this site being shit, so you can win your $500.....
2026-09-09 12:33:23
Actually ever since the microstrategy drama the clarification team has been really strict. Now people are complaining because Polymarket is strictly following the rules. Go figure.
2026-09-09 16:15:09
If you actually bought in AFTER polymarket clarified, you have a lot to learn still. UMA will never rule against a clarification, and nobody will dispute this.
2026-09-10 07:15:30
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT. Is this not correct?
2026-09-10 07:16:12
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT. Is this correct?
2026-09-11 06:32:14
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT.
2026-09-11 06:33:29
I don't think you're reading the rules correctly. The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT.
2026-09-11 06:44:22
No qualifying action occurred since the market opened so the clocks starts Sept 2, 2026 at 03:50 PMET
2026-09-11 08:22:48
I think it's roughly fair value at this point. You'll win more than 2/3 of the time. 80% + chance there will be more fighting, but Iran will decide when it starts again unless it's after the midterms.
2026-09-12 16:24:35
A conditional agreement that formalizes Iran’s gains while keeping actual reopening contingent on U.S. action could be well worth a temporary dip in oil prices. Iran would preserve most of its underlying leverage while gaining a diplomatic win, strengthening its claim that Washington is the main obstacle to normalization and potentially isolating the U.S. politically. Oman is still the difficult part, but that also makes Pezeshkian’s wording more significant: it is hard to believe Iran’s president would publicly frame Monday around signing the agreement unless there had been some credible progress behind the scenes. For that reason, I’m inclined to give his on-the-record statement more weight than an anonymous Reuters source, even if the latter is closer to the technical negotiations. - GL!
2026-09-14 16:33:22
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). -> No qualifying action occurred after market creation. So this market still has 24 hours.
2026-09-14 16:35:17
Dispute it.
2026-09-14 16:48:28
Just click the dispute button and post the bond. You get back + 50% Not worth it for me with 400 shares...
2026-09-14 17:02:48
A strict reading of the rules means 12:00 tomorrow because no qualifying strike happened during the market period. The argument in discord is that there's a "precedent." Nothing to do with the rules you don't seem to understand.