Account Information
Name:
probability
Bio:
startpolymarket. com
Pseudonym:
Cuddly-Folder
Created:
2024-08-06 10:50:54
Last Activity:
3 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@selectedadverse
profile-image-661046-854580ea-582f-4b76-b7cf-f8b6b629459d.gif
Total Profit
$138,215
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$118,879.13
Markets traded
4,001
Trades
4,001
Largest win
$22,393.68
Profile views
2,905
Join date
2024-08-06 10:50:54
All-time rank
1448
All-time PnL
$138,215.43
All-time volume
$12,454,150.99
All-time profit
$138,215.43
Lifetime volume
$12,454,150.99
Weighted volume
$8,268.99
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee | Lanlana Tararudee | 22926.71 | $22,393.68 |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 52795.42632 | $20,337.84 |
| Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | Yes | 26368.095371 | $17,186.40 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? | Yes | 9482.797479 | $-8,697.21 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 32978.327747 | $-5,409.67 |
| Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? | No | 15870.174887 | $-5,099.65 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 95000 | $0.50 | $0.96 | $91,532.50 | $44,032.50 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? | No | 7034.53 | $0.99 | $1.00 | $7,020.46 | $76.19 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 95000 | $0.50 | $0.04 | $3,467.50 | $-44,032.50 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 3723.8037 | $0.52 | $0.42 | $1,580.75 | $-345.87 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? | Yes | 2170.5931 | $0.75 | $0.68 | $1,468.41 | $-152.09 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee | Lanlana Tararudee | 22926.71 | $22,393.68 |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 52795.42632 | $20,337.84 |
| Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | Yes | 26368.095371 | $17,186.40 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20363.548669 | $16,845.67 |
| Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw? | No | 23434.877684999996 | $14,366.68 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | $0.42 | 11.2 | $4.74 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | $0.42 | 10 | $4.25 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | $0.43 | 53 | $22.58 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | $0.43 | 50 | $21.30 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | $0.43 | 54 | $23.00 |
Recent trades (4001)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Yes | $0.02 | 195.07 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%? | Yes | $1.00 | 167.58 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election? | No | $1.00 | 63.37 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 5–10%? | No | $1.00 | 154 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 10–15%? | No | $1.00 | 60 |
Comments
2025-05-08 17:03:10
Shedeur Sanders robbed
2025-09-10 15:48:16
buy more no
2025-09-10 20:18:47
why’d you sell
2025-09-21 14:42:41
can you sell me some draw at those odds 🙏
2025-10-16 18:33:35
Probably around 25% chance by the end of October
2025-11-10 00:39:01
Polymarket
2025-11-13 19:53:06
buy more no
2025-11-14 16:57:11
Many fans believe that the champion will be the team that outscores their opposition in the Super Bowl
2025-11-14 18:56:00
*malta time
2025-11-15 16:01:31
guy that signs up to polymarket to criticise other people's bets but not place any of his own
2025-11-24 03:43:27
I hardly think you can complain about losing a dispute when you only buy your shares once it’s in already dispute territory. You were all knowingly playing the game.
2025-12-12 18:17:32
can you give me a better price then
2025-12-20 15:57:29
U.S. HAS ATTEMPTED TO INTERDICT AND SEIZE ANOTHER SANCTIONED VESSEL OFF COAST OF VENEZUELA IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS, TWO U.S. OFFICIALS TELL REUTERS
2025-12-21 10:33:21
to make $1000
2025-12-21 14:54:21
The US has boarded a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker near Venezuela, the third such incident this month
2025-12-21 14:59:25
near Venezuela
2026-01-02 12:04:27
previous sentence: 'will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution'
2026-01-29 17:21:43
Trump says they spoke about the weather this week. Obviously a more recent call occurred.
2026-01-29 17:40:59
US President Donald Trump said he had successfully appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt bombing of cities and towns in Ukraine as the country prepares for an extreme cold snap. “I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and the various towns for a week, and he agreed to do that,” Trump said Thursday during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.
2026-01-29 17:45:01
why would they have discussed this cold snap last month? Seems pretty unambiguous to me, and not seeing any evidence countering this. Consensus of credible reporting is also assuming this call happened recently.
2026-01-29 17:49:52
no
2026-01-30 12:39:44
Judy voters, if you're in line, stay in line! They legally have to accept your vote
2026-01-31 07:32:46
Trump said call, media said call, and neither the whitehouse nor kremlin has denied this. Not sure why an official statement is necessary?
2026-03-12 09:35:11
where is united australia party
2026-03-12 11:54:56
WRIGHT: HORMUZ TANKER ESCORT LIKELY BY END OF MONTH
WRIGHT REITERATES IRAN OPERATIONS TO TAKE WEEKS, NOT MONTHS
2026-03-16 10:17:16
if only there was a way to express your opinion and be rewarded financially for it
2026-03-29 08:16:50
None
2026-04-11 13:27:48
None
2026-05-08 00:21:06
Helen Dalton
2026-05-14 10:42:03
Trump: I invite Xi to White House September 24.
2026-06-06 02:04:00
order book gets wiped when game starts
2026-06-07 12:07:51
that would make too much sense
2026-06-17 13:48:24
You've cracked the code!
2026-07-01 03:26:24
thank you romania
2026-07-01 08:10:06
wow, claude code users have been really busy today
2026-07-01 08:17:33
"This market will resolve solely according to the daily Claude Code Commits data via SemiAnalysis"