Account Information
Name:
manchot
Bio:
betmoar-26518
Pseudonym:
Criminal-Raisin
Created:
2025-06-26 07:16:42
Last Activity:
3 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
Total Profit
$11,513
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$8,785.02
Markets traded
963
Trades
962
Largest win
$6,551.49
Profile views
1,143
Join date
2025-06-26 07:16:42
All-time rank
12928
All-time PnL
$11,513.12
All-time volume
$1,151,521.22
All-time profit
$11,513.12
Lifetime volume
$1,151,521.22
PnL series latest
$11,417.33
PnL series start
$10,551.50
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$4,563.90
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 8114.229999999999 | $6,551.49 |
| Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Yes | 4092 | $3,984.32 |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 2999.9917 | $2,646.99 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Yes | 4092 | $-2,046.00 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | Yes | 4020.830614 | $-1,385.15 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 11682.16591 | $-1,361.22 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2546.6792 | $0.53 | $0.69 | $1,744.48 | $392.08 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5861.34 | $0.00 | $0.15 | $882.13 | $882.13 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 791.79 | $0.00 | $0.82 | $653.23 | $653.23 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1000 | $0.40 | $0.62 | $625.00 | $222.70 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 2000 | $0.14 | $0.31 | $624.00 | $344.00 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 8114.229999999999 | $6,551.49 |
| Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? | Yes | 4092 | $3,984.32 |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 2999.9917 | $2,646.99 |
| Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? | No | 1999.962769 | $1,439.97 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2901.449274 | $1,089.45 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.0972 | $0.10 | |||
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.24 | 826.1512 | $201.51 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | No | $1.00 | 178.67 | $178.30 |
| 3 weeks ago | REWARD | $0.00 | 7.67 | $7.67 | |||
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | Yes | $0.73 | 205.479451 | $150.00 |
Recent trades (962)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.24 | 826.1512 |
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | No | $1.00 | 178.67 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | Yes | $0.73 | 205.479451 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.48 | 40 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | No | $0.94 | 60 |
Comments
2025-06-30 12:05:51
cierra has this locked
2025-07-11 01:03:27
someone fill me i'm a great counterparty
2025-07-17 21:09:28
movie is 3
2025-07-17 21:27:22
ad doesn't count
2025-07-23 18:10:04
where is broadwayslasher
2025-07-31 19:10:01
what the fuck was that lol
2025-08-06 00:11:25
sir, a second dildo has hit the court
2025-08-16 02:06:05
P vs NP = 4. there i solved it. can we resolve?
2025-08-27 22:39:51
mensikbros we got this
2025-08-27 23:02:13
nvm i changed my mind blanchet is winning ez
2025-09-05 08:06:30
because he genuinely has no chance if sinner doesn't withdraw
2025-09-06 09:20:32
why are you still here. all you do is lose money
2025-09-10 03:22:03
show your other account where you're down 5figs
2025-09-12 02:47:39
satoshi we believe in you
2025-09-12 10:58:35
🚨BREAKING 🚨 Skye's father, Lawrence, was asked about the allegations : "He is a kid that wrote a punk song for his band in march and put on Spotify where some guy found it and escalated it to what it is. Someone first of all the FBI was here and cleared him as of today. He was home with his family all day."
2025-09-12 19:44:32
this has to go N. nobody will watch the competition if there are no hot jewess ladies
2025-09-13 01:23:04
69 billion dollar gap. like poetry
2025-09-13 08:51:31
thanks for fading me
2025-09-19 02:43:29
ABC affiliates Sinclair and nexstar are in the process of a massive corporate merger, which needs direct approval from FCC chair brendan carr, who said he is "glad to see" broadcasters removing unwanted shows. kimmel has name recognition, but the money always wins in hollywood
2025-09-19 09:06:00
i'm here at 81. fill me up, champ!
2025-09-19 14:37:12
gg retards
2025-09-22 01:14:54
30c spread is great
2025-09-24 17:29:01
CARtman is going to try to scam a market
2025-09-26 13:58:42
hey guys. antisemite doesn't count. thank you for your attention to this matter
2025-09-27 19:34:50
IT'S HAPPENING OMG
2025-09-27 20:42:31
GUYS IT'S HAPPENING!! THE DOUBLE SCAM! THE BACK TO BACK BOONDOGGLE!
2025-09-27 20:48:27
rose byrne finally in a film that will have a good oscar campaign. stacked cast + strong push from a24 makes this very mispriced
2025-09-28 13:24:38
IT'S HAPPENING IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING
2025-09-28 21:51:33
gosh the ravens are so bad
2025-09-29 10:12:23
dyor
2025-09-29 19:12:20
lol you guys think you found the winner in september
2025-09-29 19:52:11
car is trying to pump his shares ignore him. this meeting is a catastrophe
2025-09-29 19:54:13
current deal basically says "hamas gives israel everything they want and israel maybe might be nice"
2025-09-30 00:41:04
you're buying N? trump and bibi just announced a peace proposal and you're buying N.
2025-09-30 12:58:19
🚨 Senate Republican Leader Thune: "I am willing to discuss health care benefits if we can compromise and fund the government"
2025-10-15 08:47:45
yes guys, they will raise $1.3m per hour for the next 3 days
2025-10-15 10:39:49
and just like that!
2025-10-22 02:17:45
rocket alert in gaza 🚨
2025-10-22 03:56:25
guys i live in gaza my house just got blown up
2025-10-22 03:56:31
they definitely struck
2025-10-22 04:01:15
hey bambino can u fill me at 16c
2025-10-22 04:01:21
i will dispute for you
2025-11-01 22:59:14
where is mamdani??
2025-11-03 13:20:39
brianomen is a scammer
2025-11-05 12:01:03
sir his canthal tilt is negative
2025-11-07 07:03:17
pure delusion
2025-11-07 11:11:50
he hasn't tweeted and is obviously asleep why is this so underpriced?
2025-11-10 03:48:46
once the vote goes through, wouldn't it resolve?
2025-11-12 12:53:32
scammer
2025-11-13 06:42:09
never a doubt
2025-11-15 13:30:34
not indoors
2025-11-21 00:18:58
the girl from chile is so hot she cannot lose
2025-11-23 00:28:56
honestly? good point
2025-11-24 18:56:27
there are 3 b-52 bombers flying towards venezuela
2025-11-24 21:19:15
"peace forever no crazy war no crazy no crazy gwar no crazy warr. please please please. yes peace. peace forever peace forever!"
2025-12-02 13:48:42
what is going on
2025-12-02 15:02:13
we have WaPo as well. see below comment
2025-12-03 03:52:16
he threw a dance party yesterday
2025-12-09 15:59:20
scammers can't always win like this. eventually we will have justice and their scam-empire will all come crashing down
2025-12-09 16:16:45
STOP THE STEAL
2025-12-11 00:03:42
shut the fuck up retard
2025-12-13 11:53:28
comment below me is a scam
2025-12-13 15:20:32
beaverballin is posting scam comments!
2025-12-17 18:06:21
alexparker is in the epstein files
2025-12-22 16:51:24
epstein just raped us
2025-12-23 20:19:53
incoming FPV strike
2025-12-31 00:21:55
70% just hit
2026-01-07 09:56:11
hey you should kill yourself
2026-01-07 10:02:27
kyllyeos and pomellotrade are scammers
2026-01-31 05:09:47
THANK YOU SCOTT
2026-02-10 12:48:00
it's crazy how anti-reality some of you guys are
2026-02-10 13:15:52
dude like 30 tier-1 news agencies reported that it was a missile. nobody at all disputes the fact that a missile hit an apartment building and killed someone. stop trying to pretend you can ignore reality for your internet bets
2026-02-13 07:00:19
kingifsher just bought N. yesbros saved
2026-02-27 06:13:03
why would the number go up for things that don't resolve the bet?
2026-03-19 20:19:33
schrodinger's $100 oil
2026-04-03 19:51:03
shut the fuck up retard
2026-04-04 21:37:31
the government is lying to you
2026-04-05 04:34:56
you have to dispute both markets otherwise if one goes Y they both have to go Y on precedent
2026-04-05 04:35:05
you need to dispute both markets
2026-04-08 02:56:13
[link removed] whoops
2026-04-08 18:19:30
you are a retard
2026-04-08 19:07:15
it's not N yet?
2026-04-08 19:07:56
the fact that you misunderstand market rules so egregiously is probably a sign that you should not trade on polymarket, and potentially a sign that you are illiterate
2026-04-08 19:08:16
they did not
2026-04-11 21:45:36
hey retard that's going N
2026-04-15 01:27:46
WORLD PEACE
2026-04-30 03:01:52
bro saw ONE yard sign and became a miller bull imcrine
2026-05-04 05:40:01
it's not our fault the median california voter is retarded
2026-05-04 23:50:18
gg to all the retards
2026-05-05 23:08:48
big thank you to the gaytuks news network!
2026-05-06 06:40:58
can you pls delete your comment
2026-05-09 08:13:55
fuck you
2026-06-04 00:02:57
WHAT THE FUCK NOOOO
2026-06-04 00:03:21
i can't believe YES holders really got away with a free 500x
2026-06-04 00:05:31
VRO BOSURM PLS REFUND
2026-06-04 00:06:26
saar why can't i redeem
2026-06-04 00:07:18
AHAMDIULLAH
2026-06-04 00:07:26
MARKET ARCHIVED???? POLY WHAT IS THIS???
2026-06-04 00:07:41
guys semi just bought 2m Y shares what if this flips 😳😳😳
2026-06-04 00:08:25
does anyone else's see "Final review: Yes" ?
2026-06-28 18:21:55
there's a difference between signing an agreement and signing an agreement that says "we affirm the right of each state to exist in peace"
2026-06-28 18:41:27
what is formal recognition? you expect them to use the exact word because polymarket asks them to? the same language in this clause was used when egypt recognized israel. this is formal and it is recognition
2026-07-22 15:11:35
bond
2026-08-02 16:29:55
yeah check lmarena u dumfuq
2026-08-04 00:31:56
smells like medican food
2026-08-04 10:26:37
why do you only have 300 shares
2026-08-04 17:33:41
it musketeer wins a milly on this im buying a rope
2026-08-06 22:24:52
arman why did you bid at 60c Y bro
2026-08-07 17:02:52
idiot
2026-08-09 03:16:46
feel like this guy is NOT worth twice as much as charlie hatcher