Account Information
Name:
avaaweb3
Pseudonym:
Equatorial-Leverage
Created:
2026-06-14 09:06:18
Last Activity:
2 weeks ago
Tier:
Tier 0
X:
@avaa_poly
profile-image-8644170-628a6221-1768-4050-9766-243fefbe858a.png
Total Profit
$-97
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$5.65
Markets traded
226
Trades
226
Largest win
$14.82
Profile views
114
Join date
2026-06-14 09:06:18
All-time rank
2552230
All-time PnL
$-96.79
All-time volume
$16,231.42
All-time profit
$-96.79
Lifetime volume
$16,231.42
PnL series latest
$-96.75
PnL series start
$-97.64
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$370.34
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | Yes | 98.8235 | $14.19 |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | Argentina | 51.282 | $10.81 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | Yes | 90.4632 | $6.88 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 686.36 | $-29.95 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | France | 36 | $-16.20 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 102.26 | $-11.80 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by July 31, 2026? | No | 6.13 | $0.10 | $0.55 | $3.34 | $2.75 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | No | 10 | $0.12 | $0.23 | $2.29 | $1.14 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | Yes | 46.3156 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.02 | $-0.37 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 4, 2026? | Yes | 40 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-0.40 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026? | Yes | 71.22 | $0.02 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $-1.10 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | Yes | 98.8235 | $14.19 |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | Argentina | 51.282 | $10.81 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | Yes | 90.4632 | $6.88 |
| Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 10 | $5.60 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026? | No | 10 | $5.40 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | No | $0.12 | 10 | $1.15 |
| 2 weeks ago | REDEEM | Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in August? | No | $0.00 | 40 | $0.00 | |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | Yes | $0.01 | 20 | $0.16 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in August? | No | $0.01 | 30 | $0.30 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | $0.05 | 12.76 | $0.61 |
Recent trades (226)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | $0.05 | 12.76 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | No | $0.10 | 20 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026? | No | $0.02 | 5 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | $0.00 | 24.02 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | Yes | $0.01 | 33 |
Comments
2026-06-22 20:42:14
yes
2026-06-24 14:17:51
blackrock is selling btc
2026-06-29 08:07:46
0 probability
2026-07-02 20:58:18
dont buy dont get trap here
2026-07-09 17:29:02
why only 9 post he had post more then 30 post today
2026-07-16 09:41:42
why it is showing 0
2026-07-16 13:18:37
no
2026-08-01 07:44:43
July 30, 2026 CPC tanker strikes near Novorossiysk (Black Sea)
Two oil tankers were hit by drones overnight near Russia's CPC marine terminal off Novorossiysk, on the Black Sea:
NISSOS SIFNOS — hit while loading oil, caught fire, extinguished by crew
MARATHI — hit ~6 nautical miles offshore while approaching to load
2026-08-01 16:20:05
wait for polymarket clarification
2026-08-04 18:18:23
when this market will close
2026-08-08 17:23:10
Aug 8 ADNOC tanker attack — attribution status:
- ADNOC confirms a tanker was hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz, no injuries.
- UAE + Saudi Arabia blame Iran directly.
- Iran's own media (Fars) reports a fire happened, but doesn't claim responsibility.
- Reuters/CNN/AP/CBS only report "UAE says it was Iran" — none independently confirm it.
- UKMTO has issued no statement attributing it to anyone.
Bottom line: Per Polymarket's rule ("explicitly claimed by Iran OR confirmed by neutral sources"), this is not confirmed only accused by UAE/Saudi. No neutral body (UKMTO, Reuters, CENTCOM) has confirmed Iran did it. Sits in "unconfirmed" territory for now.
2026-08-09 07:41:03
there is no confirmation news from neutral credible source like ukmto reuter
2026-08-09 17:26:43
why so much hate for car
2026-08-13 17:17:59
gemeni flash has launch no pro model
2026-08-15 11:07:57
why this market has not close
2026-08-15 17:13:12
someone need to propose it
2026-08-16 15:27:34
Why is this market being proposed to resolve YES for Zohran Mamdani?
I have not seen any credible evidence that Donald Trump publicly praised Mamdani during the August 1–31, 2026 qualifying period. The Trump comments I can find from August have been critical/negative toward Mamdani, not qualifying praise under the market rules.
If there is a specific Trump statement that qualifies, please provide the exact quote, date, and source.
Since the market is currently “Outcome proposed: Yes” and “In Review,” I believe this should be disputed unless someone can provide the evidence that triggered the YES proposal.
2026-08-16 15:27:57
someone dispute it
2026-08-18 06:42:51
Why this market might lean No, not 85% Yes
- Attack happened: confirmed (drones hit Barzani's office, Aug 17).
- "Launched from Iran" claim = comes from ONE source only: Kurdistan's own Counter-Terrorism Directorate (the victim investigating itself). Every outlet is just republishing that one statement.
- No neutral confirmation: no CENTCOM, no satellite verification, no third-party intel — nobody independent has confirmed Iranian origin.
- Iran formally denies it: FM Araghchi and spokesman Baqaei both called it a possible "false-flag" to frame Iran.
The rule that matters: Market only resolves YES if a strike is "confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory" OR claimed by Iran itself. When sources conflict, the market stays open (up to 3 days) instead of resolving.
Right now it's: accuser's claim vs. accused's denial — no neutral tiebreaker yet. That's the exact "conflicting sources" case the rules require caution on, so 85¢ Yes looks like it's pricing this as settled when it isn't yet.
2026-08-18 08:37:22
it is what fable 5 said
2026-08-19 13:52:59
• Accuser: Kurdistan CTD vs UAE Defense Ministry
• Iran’s response: denied, called “false flag” — SAME in both
• Neutral/technical confirmation: none in either case — SAME
• Accuser’s follow-through: UAE even imposed a trade embargo (stronger action than Kurdistan took)
Outside government backing:
• Aug 17: US, UK, EU, Saudi Arabia all publicly condemned Iran
• Aug 18: no other government has backed UAE’s claim
Market result:
• Aug 17: 84% Yes
• Aug 18: 1% Yes
Both cases are structurally identical : one accuser, one flat Iranian denial, why so difference
2026-08-19 13:54:34
• Accuser: Kurdistan CTD vs UAE Defense Ministry
• Iran’s response: denied, called “false flag” — SAME in both
• Neutral/technical confirmation: none in either case — SAME
• Accuser’s follow-through: UAE even imposed a trade embargo (stronger action than Kurdistan took)
Market result:
• Aug 17: 84% Yes
• Aug 18: 1% Yes
Both cases are structurally identical: one accuser, one flat Iranian denial, why both market react different