wiki.Polymarket

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	122361.3	$43,288.54
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	98969.6506	$9,069.20
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	Yes	19299.9396	$6,332.59

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?	Yes	6286.8325	$-2,078.06
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10184.1227	$-1,842.42
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	18424.592	$-1,817.36

Market	Outcome	Size	Avg	Now	Value	PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	49724.13	$0.04	$0.14	$6,812.21	$4,641.98
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	14599.8646	$0.49	$0.38	$5,555.25	$-1,597.41
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	28536.9655	$0.04	$0.09	$2,468.45	$1,305.21
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	39553.7372	$0.06	$0.06	$2,333.67	$-131.50
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	4763.39	$0.50	$0.48	$2,286.43	$-109.29

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	122361.3	$43,288.54
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	98969.6506	$9,069.20
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	Yes	19299.9396	$6,332.59
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?	No	15316.3218	$5,943.67
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	Yes	10413.2612	$5,204.60

When	Type	Side	Market	Outcome	Price	Size	USDC
4 weeks ago	TRADE	SELL	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	$0.14	102.898551	$14.20
4 weeks ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Oklahoma Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?	No	$0.66	17	$11.22
4 weeks ago	TRADE	BUY	Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	$0.17	0.04	$0.01
4 weeks ago	TRADE	BUY	Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	$0.45	100	$46.24
4 weeks ago	TRADE	BUY	Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	$0.45	100	$46.24

When	Side	Market	Outcome	Price	Size
4 weeks ago	BUY	Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	$0.17	0.04
4 weeks ago	BUY	Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	$0.45	100
4 weeks ago	BUY	Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	$0.45	100
4 weeks ago	BUY	Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?	No	$0.44	53.8
4 weeks ago	BUY	Rutgers vs. Boston College	Rutgers	$0.10	150

2024-09-03 20:43:06 Don't mind me, I'm just cost averaging down

2024-09-03 22:36:23 People might want to consider that it's the weekend after the summer holidays, not the weekend before Halloween, also not sure about why they didn't actually plan it's release just before Halloween, they literally missed a golden oppertunity by doing that

2024-09-06 05:51:31 It's a movie with a bunch of hardline fans, those tend to go to early screenings, but those hardline fans aren't representative for the general population, and the earnings from the early previews don't count for this bet either.

2024-09-06 06:00:12 ''Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo numbers under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews),'' Well, maybe I was too quick with that remark, it might does.

2024-09-06 15:30:33 Yeah, and Dune's opening weekend ended up around 83 million.

2024-09-06 17:11:23 https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1832101334285275272

2024-09-07 02:10:34 The truth is that nobody knows shit, a lot can happen and the margins are very big. I saw a Deadline estimation of 38 million after Friday and some Indian is saying 44 million after Friday, ok then.

2024-09-07 02:26:36 Also, Warner's and Deadlines's estimation (85-95) is now at 4% because some Indian guy is very good at predicting or something.

2024-09-07 04:19:29 I'm giving 95-105 the best odds currently, this also means that I'm giving 85-95 and 105+ equal odds compared to eachother.

2024-09-07 14:02:48 To be more clear, lesser than 95-105, just equal to eachother, taking that into account 85-95 is still undervalued while 105+ is still overvalued.

2024-09-07 14:32:41 It seems that the official estimates after Friday are now on 41.5 million. https://x.com/BORReport/status/1832424938025971774

2024-09-07 14:35:21 So minus the previews it did about 28.5 million on Friday.

2024-09-07 14:42:42 And my theory remains that the decline in revenue will be relatively big due to it's dependancy on a hardline fanbase, who for the most part probably have seen it by now.

2024-09-08 01:18:31 I'm expecting a short term dump for 85-95 because Saturday is probably going to show relatively well results, yet the Sunday NFL is probably going to steerr things up, thus expecting some heavy incoming ups and downs.

2024-09-08 01:26:31 Still thinking the real result will be in the higher end of 85-95 or the lower end of 95-105, so we might even get a trading rollercoaster for some days after the weekend due to things not being clear.

2024-09-08 01:30:01 Though I'm not excluding the possibility of 75-85 either, all the ''experts'' keep adjusting their forecasts downwards bit by bit.

2024-09-08 02:15:51 Someone is definitely not spoofing up the order books to offload their bags.

2024-09-08 02:19:19 Well, I see someone on Twitter saying 41 million Saturday, but yesterday all the numbers that were given on Twitter were way higher than the official numbers that followed.

2024-09-08 02:41:41 If that Indian guy knew the impact he has on these markets he would be betting here, or maybe he is, who knows.

2024-09-08 03:36:18 I'm literally just reading on Twitter that someone is saying that sources from Warner are hinting at 36-37 million Saturday, which at the same time isn't any more reliable than the other sources people are using right now.

2024-09-08 03:38:18 https://x.com/SimbaSnell/status/1832621503969398890 But again, this isn't more reliable as the source he is replying to.

2024-09-08 03:57:43 And don't forget the Sunday NFL, which the guessers obviously aren't incorporating into their guessings.

2024-09-08 04:12:21 I would just like to add that as a non-American I don't have much with Beetlejuice and thus I've never seen the old one either, but I will be watching it sometime. Though I don't think that I'm gonna enjoy it.

2024-09-08 06:22:52 Those odds are lower than 1% for sure.

2024-09-10 12:59:42 If the early betting volume on Polymarket is a good indicator then it will gross much higher than Beetlejuice.

2024-09-10 15:20:24 #Debatenight most watched U.S presidential debates: 1. Clinton/Trump, Sep. 26, 2016: 84,0 million viewers 2. Carter/Reagan, Oct. 28, 1980: 80,6 million viewers 3. Trump/Biden, Sep. 29, 2020: 73,1 million viewers 4. Clinton/Trump, Oct 20, 2016: 71,6 million viewers

2024-09-10 15:20:45 https://x.com/weirdest_stats/status/1833150470359064664

2024-09-10 15:58:16 The English machine is in such a bad shape that Foden and Kane are below Messi (who isn't even a nominee).

2024-09-11 02:43:23 Trump's final statement will definitely be about how much he likes Happy Meals from McDonald's.

2024-09-11 19:40:58 Jerome Powell after the meeting ''With regards to the betting odds on Polymarket and the ancient market tradition which tells us that the vast majority of market participants are mostly wrong we've decided to do a 25+ bps increase.''

2024-09-11 19:56:01 They should add mention markets for Jerome Powell too.

2024-09-12 03:04:55 4.1 cent average for Trump seemed like a fun gamble.

2024-09-12 03:07:08 Impossible, that stuff definitely never happens on Polymarket.

2024-09-12 20:09:35 Launching a scamcoin during the height of a very tight Presidential election race is a sure way to lose that race, so if this is true then literally almost all election bets become hedges.

2024-09-12 21:01:59 I don't think it's fake though, it's just retarded and a quick money grab with a high probability to mess up his campaign and re-election.

2024-09-12 21:11:34 It is relevant, if it wasn't that retarded the price would be 95+ for ''Yes'' now.

2024-09-13 15:08:42 The ECB rate cut was perfectly in line with the macroeconomic data of the EU. The macroeconomic data of the US however.... it's just people wanting rate cuts.

2024-09-13 20:27:22 The CME figures aren't and shouldn't be treated as literal betting odds, but I guess it creates good trading oppertunities, good to know for the next round.

2024-09-22 14:19:56 SPD has been surging in all polls, why? Because people from other parties which aren't going to win are switching to the SPD because they don't want the AfD to win, that's how it works in Germany.

2024-09-22 15:19:03 Yeah, but it probably will be very close, so there will be much tension while the count is going on.

2024-09-22 17:26:30 This is going to be really close, therefor couldn't resist to sell my SPD shares which I had bought very cheap. And now I couldn't resist to buy some very cheap AfD's. Still think the SPD is going to win, but it's going to be unclear for a while in my opinion.

2024-09-22 17:33:47 In the actual counting the AfD is actually leading because the smaller ''county's'' are the first to report in their actual counted votes, and those votes tend to go to the AfD. But it will probably reverse again when the counted votes of the bigger towns and cities come in.

2024-09-24 20:02:43 That was literally the cheapest or at least almost the cheapest category today, the ultimate proof that in the end nobody knows anything.

2024-09-26 20:40:37 Where are all the NFL bets? The bet for tonight's game is gone and also all Sunday games are gone.

2024-09-26 20:41:54 Can't find the main bet for tonight's game anymore though.

2024-09-26 21:03:23 It's back in my Portfolio, so maybe they're just doing maintenance or something.

2024-09-26 21:04:54 https://x.com/BORReport/status/1839403619084640574

2024-09-26 21:19:15 Not sure why I got a notification for this, I've never even owned a position for it.

2024-09-26 21:47:29 The number of locations is a relevant metric.

2024-09-27 03:28:04 Yeah, except that one didn't had the social buzz (positive or negative), Lady Gaga promoting it with new releases and the full backing of the Industrial Movie Complex. Also anything ''Harley Quinn'' attracts women like bees to honey. And it's election season, Elon was already tweeting about Joker-like riots in Philly, thus societial impact and buzz. The only con against a good performance is that it's a musical or musical-like.

2024-09-27 21:19:17 It literally went to #1 worldwide iTune ranking within a day or so, thus people are buying and streaming the movie inspired music in big numbers.

2024-09-27 21:26:18 https://x.com/tweetjakefields/status/1839768982720786444 And it's also the best seller on US Amazon.

2024-09-28 19:50:49 https://x.com/HollywoodHandle/status/1840103387435528269 First it was between 120 and 150 million (obviously bullshit), then suddenly it wouldn't pass the threshold of 70 million and probably end around 50 million (also bullshit), and now it's suddenly between 60 and 90 million, hence nobody knows it for sure, but the momentum is upwards.

2024-09-28 20:00:28 Why did you just sell your whole total amount of 5 ''Yes'' then?

2024-09-28 21:48:51 ''Other''.

2024-09-29 01:18:00 I still find it weird how the cumulative odd for a decrease of 12.5, 37.5 or 62.5 bps (Other) is still equal to the odd for a 25+ bps increase. Now that they've started to cut they won't reverse course, because an increase is now equal to the admittance of a mistake.

2024-09-30 15:38:07 https://x.com/TrackBO_/status/1840766088235155593 India is of course a very different market, but if it's even doing quite well over there then it will surely perform in the US market.

2024-09-30 21:44:27 https://x.com/StonksBatman/status/1840866191826714962 So, who here is buying all of these tickets?

2024-10-01 16:54:32 Some serious market manipulation here, the Ayatollah went all-in on No, hence today's Iranian attacks.

2024-10-02 04:08:58 https://x.com/dccc/status/1839303209770430798 Dems gibs are going to flow into this district.

2024-10-03 01:24:40 The odds for Rodri, Bellingham, Carvajal, Mbappe, Haaland, Kroos and Yamal are much lower here than they are on other betting sites, curious.

2024-10-03 21:22:02 The war in the Middle East means higher fuel and energy prices, thus higher inflation, which aren't great pre-conditions for further rate cuts at this moment.

2024-10-07 20:24:12 Yeah, sure, you should definitely re-buy your ''Yes'', also, no cut for October was the expectation after the last meeting, that changed due to the Fed's suprising big cut, therefor everyone went into a free to cut further mode, but the Fed is already backtracing quite a bit, and the EUR just keeps falling further and further, anyway https://x.com/carstenbrzeski/status/1843191609858658720

2024-10-07 20:27:05 And my average buy price is now at 10 cents while I've made some swing trade profits, we're not the same, one last bonus: https://x.com/PiQSuite/status/1843370247769993242

2024-10-07 21:20:00 Anyway, the core argument here is that's more of a 50-50 situation with one side trading significantly lower than that, hence oppertunity: https://x.com/carstenbrzeski/status/1843191609858658720

2024-10-09 15:33:43 [link removed] It simply is what it is.

2024-10-09 19:48:27 Well, yes, but also no, it's complicated since it's basically ''Northern'' versus ''Southern'' Europe: https://x.com/booa2ch/status/1844008153677242761

2024-10-09 21:34:59 Germany is on the Hawkish side.

2024-10-10 02:45:37 Which probably will happen, and the EUR is falling too hard, also, the Austrian guy is giving Germany's position without Germany having to actually say it and therefor keep things peaceful.

2024-10-10 17:14:46 He's buying Rodri now.

2024-10-12 01:12:24 Great swingtrading market.

2024-10-12 02:45:18 So, what's up with Alaska.

2024-10-12 03:44:16 Thanks, this information is exactly what I was looking for, keep it up.

2024-10-12 19:46:48 The graph is telling the story of another incoming flippening arc.

2024-10-12 19:56:45 I'm gonna side with the Crypto and Bitcoin crew this time.

2024-10-12 19:58:21 Still don't think he's gonna say it though, but if there ever was a time for it, then it is now.

2024-10-12 20:05:59 He needs to sell his shitcoin after all, maybe this is even the sole purpose for his rally in California since they aren't going to vote for him anyway.

2024-10-12 21:53:22 The volatility of this market is more disturbing than Terrifier 3.

2024-10-13 03:11:45 These margins are pretty thin: https://x.com/meJat32/status/1845290226417107221

2024-10-13 05:47:21 I believe in one more reversal arc, this story isn't finished yet and the graph is projecting it.

2024-10-13 17:05:50 My pondering orb is giving me flashes of future UMA involvement in this market, I'm currently in profit for all 3 positions but I could also be wrong on all 3 positions, guess it's time to slowly head out of here.

2024-10-14 02:47:53 So, what's up with this market, why did I just buy 950 No for under 16 million for 23 cent average.

2024-10-14 03:02:27 Yeah, it's this, but that still doesn't explain the cheap No for below 16 million, I guess someone fat fingered: https://x.com/meJat32/status/1845658705544569296

2024-10-14 03:28:27 The director of Terrifier 3 never stopped directing, he's directing this market right now.

2024-10-14 03:52:48 'Bro, just start trading with the boomers on Polymarket, it's much more relaxing than trading stupid shitcoins on Solana, bro, just trust me on this, fr no cap.''

2024-10-14 05:05:16 I think the market has abused it's particpants too heavily.

2024-10-14 05:31:23 Bedankt decap.

2024-10-14 19:37:59 I asked Damien Leone about this market and he answered: ''Job's not finished''.

2024-10-15 15:50:36 It's all women and Trump, nobody knows when any of them will be ready for it.

2024-10-15 16:05:42 What if Trump mentions Bitcoin or Crypto here for the first time ever, that would be some sinister joke for sure.

2024-10-15 16:24:24 https://x.com/ING_Economics/status/1846138843197477364

2024-10-15 16:27:31 https://x.com/ING_Economics/status/1846090972138012816

2024-10-16 14:48:18 No, ING's stance is that a -25 bps is the most likely scenario at this point, but that it's also definitely not a lock either, here's another summary on key data points: https://x.com/kathylienfx/status/1846555153484202393

2024-10-16 16:31:02 And to make things more complicated, the falling or cheaper EUR is not really a problem for Germany and most Hawks, but it's a problem for the countries and Doves who're pushing for the cut.

2024-10-16 20:31:20 Your shares are sorta on the wrong side of things if you really think that though.

2024-10-17 01:02:44 500 No for 14 cent average, thanks fat fingered person I guess.

2024-10-17 01:11:45 Yeah, he literally clipped a buy No order, clipped a sell No order and clipped a Yes buy order.

2024-10-17 02:58:10 Before I bet I really need to know whether if Damien Leone will be the director of this market again.

2024-10-17 13:47:11 Meanwhile people keep buying into Vinicius because of the Nike story while every sponsor of every nominated player prepares ''Golden Boots'' in case they win, Nike simply isn't everyone's sponsor, they're the sponsor of Rodri though and they're preparing it for him as well: [link removed]

2024-10-17 13:52:28 Also, they changed the procedure, the winner won't know it until the enveloppe is opened, the ''winners'' interview will take place after the ceremony, not before like it used to, so anyone stating that they know it for sure are either high end FIFA insiders or LARP'ers: [link removed]

2024-10-18 03:41:54 Where's my boi Jatinder at with his estimates, how am I supposed to make decisions without him.

2024-10-18 15:12:43 The flippening arcs are back on the menu.

2024-10-18 15:25:29 All eligable players are known, and they're all above, most nominees are classified under ''Other'' though, there's like 20 that fall in that category.

2024-10-18 15:30:50 I forgot to mention that Messi isn't even nominated, he's the only player who's listed separate yet has a literal 0% chance to win.

2024-10-18 15:35:52 Yeah, and Bellingham is the very sturdy 3th most probable winner, also: [link removed]

2024-10-18 15:37:13 Bookmaking odds from about a week ago, and not much has changed since then: [link removed]

2024-10-18 16:46:20 It's increasingly starting to look like it, though with Terrifier it wasn't suspicious, he was literally only 70K off with that last estimate.

2024-10-19 02:45:58 Meanwhile Bellingham and Adidas are putting out new shoes as well, this is really not any different from the Vinicius and Rodri Nike shoes, they simply have different sponsors and each sponsor has it's own approach: [link removed]

2024-10-19 03:34:35 Ahhh, that fresh natural smell of market chaos.

2024-10-19 04:05:36 Yeah, I mean, if his 6.75M for Friday is correct (it might be), then he's still leaving out 250K from Thursday in his total sum, easy math going wrong or someone's cooking, who knows: https://x.com/meJat32/status/1847475690116964504

2024-10-19 15:36:18 Oof, they released this year's main criteria: [link removed]

2024-10-19 15:38:34 Messi supports Martinez ''Other'': [link removed]

2024-10-20 02:15:08 People suddenly getting overconfident, so either they're snorting coke or Jatinder put out a tweet, in this case it's probably the latter or both.

2024-10-20 02:18:44 I enjoyed last week's market much more, this director is getting fired first thing Monday morning.

2024-10-20 15:53:22 Last weekend around this time those estimates for Terrrifier weren't 18.9M, they were quite lower.

2024-10-20 20:23:15 Happening intensifies.

2024-10-20 20:29:45 55.3% versus 44.7% with just over 70% counted, yeah, totally happening.

2024-10-20 20:43:30 Margin difference still remaining between the range of 10-11%.

2024-10-20 20:59:18 They will just hold a new referendum in a few years.

2024-10-20 21:00:13 Any Moldovan pollster or anyone working in the Moldovan polling industry will be unemployed tomorrow.

2024-10-20 21:11:40 Even Visegrad is accepting the results: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1848108868137525496

2024-10-20 21:25:48 Almost 86% counted and it's 54.6% versus 45.4%.

2024-10-20 23:00:58 53% versus 47% with almost 93% counted.

2024-10-21 15:22:52 Because he's not nominated this year.

2024-10-21 21:45:35 Hold on Babe, new movie box office market just dropped.

2024-10-22 03:40:03 Legend says that if you say ''border'' 100 times within 60 seconds Trump will appear in your kitchen to bake you some french fries.

2024-10-23 02:16:27 Patriots in control of people's Polymarket portfolio.

2024-10-23 02:26:49 Imagine the mess if it turns out that this market needs to be resolved through UMA intervention.

2024-10-23 02:43:17 It's all because of this PresidentHarris bot, each time it posts some real Patriots are buying extra Trump shares.

2024-10-24 01:45:43 When comparing to previous sequals you will have to incorporate the current state of the market as a factor, which translates into a significant correction downwards.

2024-10-24 15:26:37 Sir, the whole theater market is in shambles.

2024-10-25 00:55:02 Still no Jatinder estimate, should we start to worry?

2024-10-25 01:04:34 Yeah, but also much sooner, but nothing about Venom yet.

2024-10-25 05:52:51 I reached out yet again to Damien Leone about this market, his answer: ''Job's not finished''.

2024-10-25 17:14:34 Yeah, about that, it will go back up again: [link removed]

2024-10-26 00:44:30 Something is cooking all right, this market is cooking it's participants alive.

2024-10-26 00:47:37 New story arc just dropped.

2024-10-26 02:18:32 This market has better reviews than the movie itself for good reason.

2024-10-26 02:22:25 These margins are lit: [link removed]

2024-10-26 02:41:15 Low Bracket Gang: ''We're so back''.

2024-10-26 14:52:07 According to Deadline this market is now officially on track to beat Venom's domestic opening weekend.

2024-10-26 19:49:17 Venom: The Last Flippening

2024-10-26 20:31:59 Aight, I'm about to head out, aenews is now aggresively selling in my favorite category.

2024-10-26 22:14:26 It has to be my way, it's the only chance I've left to be able to afford tickets for Venom.

2024-10-27 02:55:10 Jatinder should work on his basic math though, again 0.5M off (22+16.5=38.5) on his own estimate.

2024-10-27 03:03:04 He's saying 38M, but Friday 22M + his own estimate for Saturday gives 38.5M, not that it matters that much but it's still incorrect nevertheless.

2024-10-27 05:25:34 Just look at what these bastards did, they massacred my boi Betwick's PNL (and mine), now we will never be able to buy our tickets for Venom.

2024-10-27 05:51:54 Yeah, mine is not too bad either, but you've absolutely massacred the joke though.

2024-10-27 21:30:55 In the end it will turn out that it was less than 45M all along because Jatinder did a math error for sure.

2024-10-27 21:40:35 All fun and games but for a market which supposedly has so much volume the order books are pretty thin, a sell of one of the bigger Vini Yes holders would completely crash the order book.

2024-10-27 21:42:39 Same for Rodri and pretty much all other options.

2024-10-28 03:11:17 Fake pictures going around that Vinicius won, fake rumors going around that Rodri won, when the dust settles it will be Bellingham or Haaland for sure, yeah, it's all coming together now.

2024-10-28 06:38:47 Yeah, those are confirmed fake.

2024-10-28 06:55:34 They literally changed the procedure so that nobody knows it until they open the envelop: [link removed]

2024-10-28 07:02:25 Sure, buy more Vini.

2024-10-28 07:04:57 Just sell your house and go all-in on Vini, it's free money, right? Right???

2024-10-28 07:06:12 Thanks for the financial advice, negative PNL user.

2024-10-28 07:07:40 Keep buying Vini.

2024-10-28 07:17:15 You will just panic sell your Vini shares just like you already did 1 or 2 times.

2024-10-28 07:31:21 Thanks for the financial advice, negative PNL user, keep replenishing your account to buy those fresh Vini shares.

2024-10-28 15:37:46 Poor @Porcoddio in shambles right now.

2024-10-28 15:43:24 Sold my Rodri Yes and my Vini No, these profits were too good, also not 100% sure about the rumor of Real not attending the ceremony.

2024-10-28 15:53:38 3 or 4K it seems, this morning he was saying that he couldn't wait to see me losing, but live came fast at him.

2024-10-28 22:44:39 Henlo, I should be focusing on the American elections right now, but I heard that these movie markets are pretty lit.

2024-11-07 22:50:58 So any trading going on over here or is everyone broke now.

2024-11-11 20:55:05 Woke shit and a musical versus Ariana and good critic reviews, I thought the US wanted less divisiveness and more unity now.

2024-11-12 21:02:38 So Wicked and Gladiator are actually releasing in the same weekend, interesting.

2024-11-18 21:43:24 Dick: ''We hebben geen serieus probleem''.

2024-11-19 02:33:19 Who must go? Assad? I don't think so, ''job's not finished'' he said in his most recent interview.

2024-11-19 23:22:05 I just got off the phone and I got the definitive confirmation that Damien Leone will be the director of this market, it's called ''Wicked's True Face''.

2024-11-20 17:58:24 Yeah, well, thanks to whoever gave me 3K+ ''No'' for $POPCAT at 8 cent average.

2024-11-20 18:00:14 Surely this price hike won't be used on Twitter to shill $POPCAT.

2024-11-20 18:01:46 $Pnut is the only one of these coins that's already listed on Binance, do whatever you want with this information though.

2024-11-21 04:27:53 Devious whales are moving and manipulating the prices again.

2024-11-21 05:14:13 Damien Leone is entering the market.

2024-11-21 05:19:14 It's a musical, it's woke, it's not even the complete movie but just a ''part one'', the amount of theaters where it's showing is a bit low, it has Gladiator as competitor and I probably forgot some stuff. The only things that it got going for itself are Ariane Grande and good critic or audience reviews, but we'll see I guess?

2024-11-21 21:25:39 Bibi's arrest approval might be the final straw here.

2024-11-22 05:26:00 ''Mom, the Jatinder whales are manipulating the orderbook again!''

2024-11-22 05:29:49 This is literally me btw, I'm 13.

2024-11-23 01:40:13 wicket

2024-11-23 06:38:37 It's over.

2024-11-23 17:05:19 Well, the early Jatinder estimate figured 115-125 on the basis of 48 mil, the later ''official'' estimate is 46.75 mil, which should clearly favor below 115 more than 125 or higher in the odds, 115-125 is still most likely though.

2024-11-23 21:13:41 These order book spreads are killing me slowly.

2024-11-23 22:30:18 I wish we could bet on the title of her next album, a trusthworthy source told me that the title will be ''Please don't break my PNL''.

2024-11-23 22:41:09 I think it's going to be a Damien Leone-like cliffhanger around the 115 million mark with only a few 100k margin to either side.

2024-11-24 04:44:48 People always forget that the secret ingredient to making bank is simply making sure to have fun in the process.

2024-11-24 21:20:42 Aight, that was fun, I'm about to head out, same time and place next week.

2024-11-24 23:49:36 You mean the ''85-105'' shares? I bought those for 0.9 cent average, I was mainly in 105-115 and simply sold those off already since I bought them very low anyway, so yeah, not hopeful for 95-105.

2024-11-24 23:50:02 ''95-105''

2024-11-26 00:13:39 $BONK is just rumours, no confirmations, and the limited EU spot trading is irrelevant for this bet.

2024-11-26 00:15:29 Remember when last week $POPCAT was at 90% for a listing at Coinbase? I do and it's below 20% now.

2024-11-26 00:16:25 Okay, buy more then.

2024-11-26 03:05:17 161.7 million, that's a bond, just wrap it up already.

2024-11-26 03:19:54 No, it was revealed to me in a cryptic esoteric dream.

2024-11-26 16:30:04 I guess people have been misunderstanding the rules quite a bit, it's only about these coins, it doesn't matter whether if another coin that's not mentioned here get's listed first.

2024-11-26 17:36:05 Unlike the Binance market, in this market ''Other'' will resolve to ''Yes'' if literally any coin which is not mentioned here get's listed first.

2024-11-26 21:13:57 Most studio estimates are nonsense, the current market isn't great and most movies underperform compared to their early or studio estimates. But there are movies that do outperform the estimations and I think that this one will outperform as well, also don't fade the 5-day weekend. Critic reviews seem very mixed, but it's a movie for kids anyway, yet it's also still sharing the theaters with very freshly released Wicked and Gladiator, which basically function as direct competitors in a not so great economic environment for the industry, thus my estimation is circa 160 million (this is a bond). fr no cap on god

2024-11-26 21:19:29 160 million is an outperformance of more than one standard deviation already, so I don't think it's very likely that it will go over 180 million, it's possible, just not very likely in my opinion.

2024-11-26 23:53:01 Henlo, my fellow investment bankers, what are we betting on today?

2024-11-26 23:55:50 I've looked into that but ''Computer says No''.

2024-11-27 00:02:44 You can find my analysis if you scroll a few comments down.

2024-11-27 21:11:39 We'll see how things play out, it's a kid's movie, but the growing discrepancy between Wicked's and Moana's Tomato score is something that might affect things. Last night's revenue was already higher for Wicked than it was for Moana, thus mothers pushing kids towards Wicked.

2024-11-27 21:55:27 $Pnut coded: https://x.com/SolMaker7/status/1861891250598601071

2024-12-01 21:47:37 Justice for Peanut, do you even have a heart, Coinbase?

2024-12-01 21:49:03 And what about Moodeng, isn't he a cute little hippo? Or do you hate him, Coinbase?

2024-12-02 17:41:36 Assad isn't going, but who is the next person who must go?

2024-12-02 17:45:01 We're basically betting on whether if he get's an heart attack or get's ''assassinated'' within the timeframe.

2024-12-02 20:39:08 Why is this even getting disputed? (I already sold my 4.5K Moodeng ''Yes'' shares for good prices though)

2024-12-03 00:15:39 Yeah, just hedging and swing trading here, and also 3K+ None of above in 2024 ''No'' shares which I also sold for great profits.

2024-12-04 16:15:29 Coinbase just keeps adding and adding within the span of a day, and you're here telling me that Binance isn't going to follow?

2024-12-04 17:04:29 You're literally just trying to sell your ''Yes'' shares for 71 cent.

2024-12-04 17:10:20 You're just cost averaging down to try and get rid of them when you're break even.

2024-12-04 17:12:58 That's fine by me, I guess?

2024-12-07 20:10:30 Not true, a more credible source has reported that he died of cringe while doing an attempt to bingewatch old episodes of Friends.

2024-12-07 20:37:19 Meanwhile Assad's just chilling in his palace and casually betting on here like if it's a normal Saturday.

2024-12-07 20:49:12 It's over, billions must buy ''No''.

2024-12-07 21:04:23 Never bet against the Lion of Damascus, many world leaders did before you and they all ''had to go''.

2024-12-08 02:18:48 I predict that the Battle for UMA will be much more exciting than the Battle for Damascus, many impatient panic sellers and price swings for sure.

2024-12-08 04:54:27 Damn, which mofo bought almost all my ''Yes'' shares (for a good price) and then dumped it all back on my very low buy orders (it's fine).

2024-12-08 05:05:34 More people going to die during the Battle of UMA than during the Battle of Damascus, crazy times.

2024-12-08 18:11:53 ''Leaders of the Syrian armed opposition have guaranteed the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic facilities on Syrian territory, a source in the Kremlin told TASS.''

2024-12-08 18:27:56 I'm pretty sure their priorities are the current IDF invasion and fighting the Kurds.

2024-12-08 22:16:12 They aren't even looting (in contrast to the Iranian embassy) the Russian embassy in Damascus and people remain there, but you're telling me that they will force Russia to leave their only and crucial MENA naval basis?

2024-12-10 21:05:41 The Lion of Damascus just fell but there's already a movie about this?

2024-12-10 21:23:51 Lasconi her Twitter says that they're talking about going for one common candidate for all pro-European parties, not so much that she wouldn't be that candidate.

2024-12-11 16:18:09 So basically, it will resolve for the coin that will have a ''Coinbase will add support for'' tweet, $PNUT is added to the roadmap, but that doesn't count, so if another token (whatever token, doesn't have to be a meme) get's such a tweet before $PNUT it will resolve according to that.

2024-12-11 16:48:35 Not always, for example, on the 4th of December they added GIGA and TURBO to the roadmap but also announced support for MOVE just a bit later while skipping the roadmap part, the actual listing of MOVE got delayed days later though.

2024-12-13 06:32:36 And she had Aids apparently, yeah, goodluck Beliebers: https://x.com/YellowFlashGuy/status/1867246631906955398

2024-12-13 16:20:53 They're obviously just withdrawing all troops from other bases through Khmeimim and Tartus, it's probably even part of their deal to keep Khmeimim and Tartus.

2024-12-13 16:46:40 Because the main air defenses and all of the personel from other parts of the country were only there to support Assad? And they don't need all of the personel and equipment they had throughout Syria on those bases?

2024-12-13 17:26:52 Yeah, and the withdrawal from other parts of the country to the coastal bases is very organised and peaceful, almost if it's like part of a deal one could argue: [link removed]

2024-12-13 17:28:40 Why not take a second loan on your house and buy more ''Yes'' then?

2024-12-13 17:31:59 Stop buying ''No'', I was anticipating on buying more ''No'' for a cheaper price, and now I missed out.

2024-12-14 04:38:39 Needs more options, also, at least add ''Other'' maybe?

2024-12-14 20:48:26 Mf'ers be analyzing this like they're a member of a high-end geopolitical thinktank at the Pentagon, like bro, what're you even doing with your life?

2024-12-15 16:14:35 At least Wade, Searle, Clayton and Chisnall in my opinion, see also: https://x.com/FDI_Index/status/1861107391544132063

2024-12-15 16:40:20 This seems to have been posted about an hour before this bet started: https://x.com/CoinbaseAssets/status/1866584183532822895

2024-12-15 20:48:06 I profited from this, since I had (most have been sold for good profits) No for Pnut and Yes for Other, but I don't think it's right and I've never seen a market resolve to a solution that occured before the market got deployed, but let's see I guess?

2024-12-17 15:55:07 Mf'ers be trading this like it will resolve to the current price of this extremely volatile token, fine by me, I guess?

2024-12-17 17:47:45 People haven't studied enough Solana shitcoin graphs and it shows.

2024-12-17 21:26:33 It's either going to find a bottom here and shoot right back up to about 7 billion or it will fall straight through to about 1.3 billion, aren't you entertained?

2024-12-18 06:40:48 The American buyers have gone to bed, let's see to what price the rest of the world will dump it in the next 7 hours.

2024-12-18 17:29:53 So, what's up with this account: https://x.com/meJat23

2024-12-18 22:03:00 Damn, dumbfuck decrap strikes again, I just heard on CNN that the fix is in, they're fortifying the box office as we speak, big black sports bags full with receipts from reservations are being loaded into unmarked white vans in all of the swingstates, and there's also reports of containers full of Mufasa plushies being found in rivers and forests all over the country, absolutely disgusting, how can he keep getting away with this?

2024-12-19 22:50:36 Morgen is de grote dag! Hey Wilders, what if we share half of the profits?

2024-12-21 06:08:28 Steiner will be here soon and he will escort all the kids to Sonic.

2024-12-21 21:13:32 No, Steiner, a famous general, he's always on his way with reinforcements.

2024-12-22 04:19:07 Remember, Decrap is in 64-72, nobody has ever won a movie bet against Decrap.

2024-12-22 04:25:31 I sold my No for 64-72 with good profit, I regard my 72-80 Yes as lost and my No for 56-64 will give me coin, it has been programmed this way.

2024-12-22 04:59:44 Ah, look at the time, it's flippening time already? (Damien Leone in control)

2024-12-22 18:18:07 My boi Fauci did nothing wrong, he just wanted to sterilize all the libtards, so Joe, what are you waiting for, just give this man a pardon already?

2024-12-22 18:24:58 Man, you have Yes for Ross Ulbricht and a negative PnL, and you're fading Lindsey Graham's gayness.

2024-12-22 20:44:44 Cooked, but who remembers Terrifier? All big outlets reported 18-18.3M on Sunday, but Sunday held up very well and it became 18.9M on Monday, now that might just be a difference of 0.6-0.9M, but it's about 3 to 5%, and what if you add up 3 to 5% onto 62M? Terrifying thought, right?

2024-12-23 04:58:15 In almost every scenario everyone will need BSW, whether they like it or not (they don't).

2024-12-23 05:03:53 Even in the very unlikely scenario that the AfD would be part of the coalition BSW would be absolutely required for them, and in basically every instance that the Greens aren't part of the coalition BSW will be part of the coalition.

2024-12-23 05:23:57 And no BSW almost automatically means FDP, so the FDP is being faded by people as well.

2024-12-23 06:27:59 The CDU is going to win, or at least will be the lead to form the coalition, they don't prefer the Greens nor the FDP over the SPD and BSW, so either the FDP or the Greens might take part, but definitely not both.

2024-12-23 06:30:59 And the CDU definitely prefers the FDP over the Greens, so there's that I guess?

2024-12-23 06:35:39 And next to that, math doesn't add up, CDU, Greens and FDP very likely won't even have a majority together.

2024-12-23 06:41:41 Also, if you really believe that, why aren't you buying cheap ''No'' for SPD then?

2024-12-23 18:12:24 CDU and SPD will be the core, question is do they need a 3th party, I think they will, Greens aren't preferred by the CDU, FDP is a neutral choice for both (if they make it into the Bundestag they will govern), and BSW is actually fine for both (look at Thuringen).

2024-12-23 18:16:02 Just like in Thuringen, right? And what happend there?

2025-01-06 17:37:55 What if it will turn out to be a duet between Elon Musk and Kanye West?

2025-01-10 22:35:19 The odds of her starting a ''Born Again TradWife'' Instagram in 2025 are higher than her doing this challenge in 2025.

2025-01-11 05:48:43 Jatinder: ''Guys, I seriously overindexed'' - Market participants: ''Let's buy into a higher tier''

2025-01-11 17:16:20 I approve this message: https://x.com/GiteshPandya/status/1878110986290233676

2025-01-12 03:59:37 I bet there's a significant causal relation between the amount of posts on the Box Office Theory forum per hour and the amount of over- or underindexing for a given weekend.

2025-01-13 21:17:01 Albanian then.

2025-01-13 21:40:54 Ahhh shit, here we go again.

2025-01-17 18:22:11 Inauguration pump, followed by the meme supercycle but down overall at the end of Q1.

2025-01-20 15:58:51 Thanks Joe for having my back, I owe you one.

2025-01-20 18:26:00 Likely, but just buying some CDU No shares just to be sure as a hedge.

2025-01-21 15:36:19 Getting closer and closer to 4.3% in the polls, plus it's voterbase is underrepresented in polling and questionaires. It's happening, maximum happening time.

2025-01-21 16:05:42 Elon probably already gave them the final push with his salute and AfD shilling.

2025-01-23 22:17:25 CDU - SPD with BSW or FPD, and hedging with cheap CDU ''No'' shares for if it's going to be a very long process.

2025-01-24 03:57:32 Ever heard about the existence of Thuringen and it's politics?

2025-01-24 04:48:58 Trump stated that this box office isn't too big to rig, shady business going on for sure.

2025-01-24 04:54:23 But anyway, I saw a little penguin, some depressed anime character and some Indian walking around, they had a few pieces of paper in their hands, I zoomed in and read ''9.35 million domestic box office is a lock''.

2025-01-24 21:39:49 This market is out of control, I'm calling Damien Leone to fix this shit.

2025-01-25 02:23:55 ''Flight Risk official previews from distributor: $950K Keep in mind the big promo for those Thursday shows that may deflate Friday's multiple. Unless there's some fuzzy math, I'm still skeptical it hits double digits. (We actually had $1.0m previews backed into the $8.8m weekend forecast earlier this week, for what it's worth.) Pre-sales for the weekend look more like Ungentlemenly Warfare than Den of Thieves 2, IMO, but that preview promo makes things a little less certain. '' - https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4771809

2025-01-25 02:47:15 ''deadline is really trustworthy'', saar, I'm afraid I've got some very bad news for ya.

2025-01-25 03:26:56 ''1 3.75 4.75 3 // 12.5'' Charlie also posted some news to make the 10-13 Yes holders insecure, oh well?

2025-01-25 03:41:53 I didn't exclude anything, I win more with No on 10-13 if it goes over 13 than I lose on 7-10 Yes.

2025-01-26 03:39:49 ''Good jumps. FR 4.8. Mufasa 4.3'' according to Charlie, so if it doesn't drop that much on Sunday it will be over 13.

2025-01-26 03:44:15 Not quite: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32960-jan-24-26-2025-weekend-thread-friday-44m-flight-risk-23m-one-of-them-days-19m-mufasa-tlk/page/7/#comment-4772270

2025-01-26 05:12:14 Plan status: TRUSTED

2025-01-26 05:13:39 You just know shit is real when Decrap starts to cry.

2025-01-27 16:30:29 It's Trump versus Jerome, and we know what Trump wants, and we also know how Trump reacts to this kind of market volatility from his last term.

2025-01-27 16:34:18 A further 25 bps decrease also wouldn't be a total change of the Fed's current course.

2025-01-27 17:50:54 Sir, there's some urgency.

2025-01-27 21:56:04 Even the CME Fedwatch is more bullish on a 25 bps decrease than this market.

2025-01-27 22:44:52 The CME Fedwatch just updated again, guess in what direction?

2025-01-30 05:02:59 Russia isn't going to agree with the demands, they just keep extending the ''negotiations'' until they've collected all the equipment and personel in relative peace, when that's done the ''negotiations'' will fail.

2025-01-30 05:05:15 Also, HTS are Western and Turkish sattelite rebels, they got no connection or real interest with Russia.

2025-01-30 13:32:32 I was wondering why I couldn't find any info on the Thursday preview numbers, but apparently it's Thursday.

2025-01-30 16:52:56 Friedrich personally bonded this one.

2025-02-05 18:08:41 All 3 small parties (BSW, FDP and Die Linke) are going to make it into the Bundestag with 5% due to everyone being unsatisfied with everyone, voters, politicians and parties alike.

2025-02-14 17:13:50 New betting model, when Luiz Fernando starts talking shit about the cards and WOM, simply bid 1 tier lower.

2025-02-14 21:56:18 Paddington is going to flip Captain America for sure.

2025-02-15 16:47:34 Paddington is collecting his barbed wire baseball bat to beat Captain America.

2025-02-15 16:49:32 5.14 + 7.2 + 4.79 fr, no cap, on god

2025-02-15 17:06:28 On the contrary, the US efforts of pushing the AfD are negatively affecting them.

2025-02-17 18:08:25 People seem to have a lot of faith in the Brandmaur.

2025-02-17 18:12:44 100% real Brandmaurs, SPD-CDU majority, Merz working with Greens, CDU-Greens majority, there seems to be a lot of oversimplifications going on in here, it's going to be a big mess.

2025-02-19 22:01:33 ''Make Europe Great Again'' and ''remove the woke'' through a party who're called ''Nazi's'' despite having a literal lesbian party leader, please, just cancel the circus already.

2025-02-19 22:08:48 Can we get a bet about whether Die Linke will enact a succesfull Communist revolution before the election takes place?

2025-02-19 22:19:50 German channels using English?

2025-02-19 22:23:59 If things go on like this we may need ''No New Coalition in 2025'' as an option, I don't think so, but just to be certain?

2025-02-20 00:13:09 Oh, great, I didn't even knew this before buying 8K ''Other'', thus even more value in ''Other''.

2025-02-20 18:11:03 YouGov is the worst poller, volatilty in polls is the highest in the few days before the elections, 20% is still undecided, CDU will win, AfD second, though the AfD is structurally underestimated by polls, same goes for BSW, all 3 small parties will get into the Bundestag with 5% and the coalition negotiations will be one big mess.

2025-02-20 21:37:56 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Forsa are the most accurate pollsters historically, take into account an accurate or slight underestimation of the CDU and a larger underestimation of the AfD and you get about 28-30% versus 22-24%.

2025-02-21 21:37:56 The Thuringen coalition model is a very real option if BSW get's 5% or more.

2025-02-23 22:41:07 People buying ''No'' like they're on 3.2% or something.

2025-02-23 22:51:08 All of Bayern is already in, BSW going to make it.

2025-02-23 22:53:49 Go away, $0 PNL user.

2025-03-09 22:14:34 I see a very competative player field with no absolute clear favorites while the war in Ukraine is yet again very ''hot'', haven't I seen this episode before? (It will stay competative and volatile until the very end and Ukraine will score the winning goal in the extra extra overtime)

2025-03-11 18:19:28 Imagine blaming the EU for the mess that's called ''Romanian politics''.

2025-03-11 20:47:50 Kids, don't do Romanian politics, not even once, it will one shot you.

2025-03-12 17:44:04 Albania conquered Armenia?

2025-03-12 17:49:33 I would suggest to promptly replace it with the correct flag before this small mistake triggers an actual war.

2025-03-12 20:32:35 Simion might be banned, but also might be allowed, but he won't win if he's allowed, so then Georgescu and Simion come up with a contruction that might canalize the support of both groups into one other candidate, yeah, that's some 17D chess that's going to work out for sure.

2025-03-12 21:16:49 The Koalitionsverhandlungen aren't going so well, isn't it?

2025-03-13 20:56:59 I'm American? I'm Alt-Right? Mad NPC's gonna be mad, anyway, let's break it down? Merz himself has set the 20th of April for a Schwarz-Rot coalition agreement, but we all know if that is Merz's aim, then it's going to take at least 50% longer, including ups, downs and dramas, also, the Greens already demonstrated that a Schwarz-Rot coalition is going to be very weak and dependant on them, you think Union voters want that? And the SPD started the negotiations with demands as if they've won the elections, also problematic, the workgroups are going to work out stuff and soon more problems and differences between the parties are going to be clear, but it's going to be a walk in the park, right? Then we have the CSU (Union is CDU and CSU together), they're more conservative, they might start to throw tantrums is Merz and Union give in too much to the SPD, let alone if and when the Greens start to play a role or get an invite, so even CDU (without CSU), SPD and Greens is possible, which would turn into ''Other'', but is this everything?

2025-03-13 20:57:21 No, there's more, given the current Bundestag an Union minority goverment with ad hoc coalitions per thema would actually be the most convenient for everyone, but after an election you can't just say ''no negotations, we form our own minority government'' because that's how it works, you have to negotiate first, that's how it is, which would also result in ''Other'', and I'm sure that during the coming weeks or even months there will be moments of drama and tantrums when an Union and AfD coalition might seem to start looking very realistic, I don't think it will happen, but it will surely pump, in the end a weak Schwarz-Rot coalition might still be the most logical, but it's not 95%, it's going to take a while and there will be problems, dramas, ups and downs, but hey, it's just some journalists trying to create problems? Right?

2025-03-13 21:04:25 That's not me, also not really active on Discord.

2025-03-15 21:41:59 France reversal and an Albanian sneak attack incoming.

2025-03-16 18:23:55 Maybe it would be an idea to add the other candidates who have been accepted and confirmed to run?

2025-03-17 18:02:26 Simion trusted a woman and now he's going to find out.

2025-03-17 20:42:22 What's up with the $0 PNL or almost $0 PNL accounts acting like they know more than Friedrich himself while monitoring what people buy 247 just to get upset about it because some shares are associated with parties that they don't like? Meanwhile I'm just chilling and swingtrading all Georgescu related shares for 2, 3 or 4% profit in all of the Romanian bets which are actually 100% risk free since he's utterly banned by the Romanian Constitutional Court.

2025-03-18 22:39:49 This market is all functional now with the addition of all the most important candidates: https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-in-romanian-presidential-election-1st-round?tid=1742337488936

2025-03-20 14:50:35 Looking at the volume and liquidity of the Semi-Finals markets compared to this market I'm guessing that most people don't know these markets exist: https://polymarket.com/event/eurovision-2025-semi-final-2-qualifiers?tid=1742481983999

2025-03-20 15:58:55 Yeah, it's a total lock, right? Right? [link removed]

2025-03-20 16:01:20 Totally no problem at all, right? RIGHT? [link removed]

2025-03-20 16:26:29 We really have $0 PNL accounts here stating that Welt is misinformed and spreading misinformation about the coalition talks, very wild.

2025-03-20 17:56:41 I'm afraid that ''bitch I'm german'' is not a valid argument as the knowledge of the average German on offentliche Verwaltung isn't that great.

2025-03-21 14:50:00 Merz said he's ending his political career if the current coalition talks with the SPD don't work out: [link removed]

2025-03-21 15:01:15 I really don't think there will be new elections, but I guess so, theoretically, and if not it would turn into ''Other'', I guess?

2025-03-21 16:56:20 Merz is literally saying it live on video on a public stage, denying this is basically an acknowledgement that you don't understand German.

2025-03-22 05:36:17 New elections? Failing coalition talks don't equal new elections, if it fails the SPD (Olaf) will try to create a minority coalition with the Greens and Die Linke. Then the only way to prevent that from happening is a gentleman's agreement which allows Union to form a minority government on it's own or it will force Union to break the Brandmaur and go with the AfD, which isn't possible with Merz, but without Merz it's actually quite possible, everyone's just playing poker and nothing is certain.

2025-03-22 17:51:39 Also, if these coalition talks fail and Olaf doesn't succeed in achieving his Plan A, then this market is going to require an ''Other'' option, Weidel won't be Kanszler and another Union led coalition will be without Merz since he literally announced his resignation in case the current talks fail.

2025-03-22 17:57:23 Well, the 30th of June deadline makes it so that this market actually already requires an ''Other'' option since all markets will resolve to ''No'' if that date hasn't been met.

2025-03-22 21:00:11 I don't expect them to announce ''it's over'', it's possible, but I expect ''we've identified our key differences and we're hopeful that we can work these differences out in the coming period''. The Arbeitsgruppe are explorational and differences will always be there, yet the leaks weren't really ''just leaks'', the leaks are done on purpose to see the reactions and polls, and the reactions and polls haven't been very good, which is an understatement. I expect them to negotiate about the differences on the higher level for a few weeks which will then come to an end with a statement that it's not going to work out, there's a lot of incentives for everyone but Merz to let it fail.

2025-03-22 21:15:20 The winner will probably be determined by some yet unknown hype or black swan event or happening, otherwise it will just be determined by the jury vote, which will definitely not be Israel, the EBU really doesn't want to go to Israel.

2025-03-23 20:51:01 No, I mean disqualifications, fights, sudden political issues, some tune going viral through TikTok or social media at the right moment, when there's no clear winner almost anything can determine the outcome.

2025-03-24 16:49:03 It's going to take a few more years before the SPD agrees with this though: [link removed]

2025-03-24 16:54:07 Yeah, it's going to take a little longer, we just need to wait a few more years guys: [link removed]

2025-03-24 17:09:46 Also, if it won't be Merz it will probably be Linnemann, but we would get a Scholz-phase in between.

2025-03-24 18:21:39 [link removed]

2025-03-24 18:23:13 [link removed]

2025-03-24 20:50:35 The main problem is, the SPD can't agree with anti-immigration policies without getting crushed by the Greens and Die Linke while Union can't lead a coalition that's not going to implement some anti-immigration policies without getting crushed by the AfD, yet the cancellation of talks over immigration won't have such an effect for both.

2025-03-25 14:48:41 Yeah, except that there won't be a second election when the current coalition talks fail.

2025-03-25 20:57:05 I don't see anything about this anywhere?

2025-03-26 15:36:50 People talking about ''talks have finished'' and ''ongoing talks'' clearly just talk shit, there literally haven't been any talks for days, it's only results from the Arbeitsgruppen that are coming out, they already said that they aren't in a hurry and will carefully resume talks about problematic issues on Friday.

2025-03-26 21:48:13 The best thing about this bet is that it's not required to come up with reasons for a possible failure, the amount of reasons and factors at play are simply more significant than most people are willing to acknowledge and therefor pricing in these markets is heavily skewed, but people don't recognize it because if they would they would go for other more secure bets for that few percent of profit, but whatever?

2025-03-26 22:42:25 Yeah, summer recess is planned to begin officially at the 12th of July, they can't go on vacation peacefully if talks are still going on, so if talks are going to take a while the odds of them finalizing the talks in those very last few days are quite significant.

2025-03-28 06:01:01 Soon? The ''Formal Talks'' start today, which on average have taken about 4 to 5 weeks the last few times, their early goal was ''Easter'', but they've already stated multiple times that ''sollidness'' is more important than ''speed'', which is basically them saying that they aren't going to get it done before Easter. If nothing goes wrong and they don't extremely clash the end of April or the beginning of May are reasonable estimations. But I highly doubt that it will go easily or that they will even succeed, but even if everything goes as plan there will always be these ''jump scare moments'', these might even be fake in full coorporation with the media, but the ''jump scare moments'' will come because that's how they communicate to the voter that they're negotiating for each and every inch, well, goodluck holding your ''free money'' or ''thanks for your donation'' shares through all of that.

2025-03-30 15:19:26 The first delays are here, they're already communicating that they're not going to get it done before May: [link removed]

2025-03-30 21:16:24 The reversal of France will be Biblical for sure: [link removed]

2025-04-01 16:57:12 If Fine is really doing fine, then Patronis is doing more than fine.

2025-04-01 20:36:49 Yeah, just can't find anything in the data that suggests anything less than a margin of 20, but some people seem very certain, but whatever I guess?

2025-04-01 20:50:07 The host never wins, it's the rule.

2025-04-03 20:00:18 It's not just Polymarket, international bookmaking odds are in an absolute deadlock, boring and unjustified.

2025-04-04 01:11:02 A Minecraft Market, directed by Damien Leone, it's going to be one of those weekends.

2025-04-06 03:15:05 Czech Republic on the rise, totally didn't see that coming.

2025-04-06 20:44:04 The hosting country never wins, it's the law.

2025-04-07 16:53:38 Trump just made a deal with the CEO of inflation, the inflation is gone, total art of the deal, are you tired of winning yet?

2025-04-07 21:51:26 57% versus 43% on CME, it's happening!

2025-04-09 17:22:19 I'm sure Sweden will end up in the top 3, but a semi-joke song from a country that basically wins it too often and which also experienced some hosting problems last year just isn't going to win it, the EBU is not a democracy.

2025-04-15 16:08:04 I wonder what effects the American attempts to meet candidates and influence the election will have on the odds and actual results, the AfD underperformed because of it.

2025-04-18 20:48:53 Sweden's entry is one of the most typical stereotype second placer that's ever participated, and Austria just might become one of the most shock non qualifiers ever recorded.

2025-04-18 21:43:36 During the Final the Jury points will be handed out first, meaning France and probably the Netherlands will have a big headstart for a while during the Final, meaning liquidity wise their odds will rise above the rest whether they win it or not, but I do think one of them will.

2025-04-19 13:28:59 The odds last year when they closed: [link removed]

2025-04-19 20:09:08 Half of Europe isn't even familair with sauna's and it's going to show, this is Nordic bias.

2025-04-22 21:20:29 Boring ass ridiculous odds, next month we will find out whether if they are more or less ridiculous than last year's odds, I'm sure there will be more volatility when preparations in Basel start though.

2025-04-22 21:34:31 It's also worth noting that EBU preferences are important, France obviously wants it and therefor the EBU too, the EBU also has a bill to pay to the Netherlands for disqualifying Joost Klein, and possible first time winners like Czechia, Albania and Malta will also get a preference treatment.

2025-04-23 15:23:26 Too big to rig.

2025-04-23 17:22:28 I'm just a data minded swingtrader in a bettor's world.

2025-04-23 20:08:01 [link removed]

2025-04-24 19:48:07 Swedenmania is getting out of control, the liquidity during the Final is going to be lit though, the same people buying Sweden like their lives depend on it will also be the first to dump Sweden during the Jury voting, Sweden will be about 4th to 7th for more than an hour, the question is whether they will get enough points to make up for that through the Televote.

2025-04-24 20:21:38 TV series idea: Game of Thrones but it's in contemporary Romania, dragons soon for sure so they can just let those in too.

2025-04-24 23:03:46 Someone stole my Crin's!

2025-04-24 23:09:59 It's 50/50, so a country that becomes 5th in the Jury vote needs to win big versus Jury vote number 1 to 4 in the Televote to win the overall.

2025-04-25 06:26:19 Sure, what's keeping you from buying some of that sweet ''free money'' Sweden?

2025-04-27 23:04:24 If Germany get's their shit together it could unironically win and become an international summer hit.

2025-04-29 20:39:18 Israel's odds being almost equal to the odds of France is even more ridiculous than Sweden's current odds, Eurovision will be disolved before an Israeli victory.

2025-04-30 16:58:59 The bets about who's making it into the 2nd round and who's winning the 1st round have crazy high odds for Simion, which is great for hedging since everything is literally still possible, even more so if they start pulling tricks with diaspora ballots: [link removed]

2025-04-30 20:16:58 So I'm analyzing the Predictor Jury results and let's just say that Sweden's score would be very different if there wouldn't be an overrepresentation of jurors from the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark.

2025-05-01 20:34:26 I would guess that now Ponta has taken a seat on the backbench that most of his voters will strategically move to Crin, giving Crin a shot to even win the first round.

2025-05-01 20:39:43 I'm also thinking that many Simion voters might think ''we'll vote in the second round'' due to him leading in polls which is probably going to make the real results very competative to eachother.

2025-05-01 22:56:07 And what if many of the Lasconi voters also go to Crin instead of Dan, for strategical purposes of course, that would cause a total Crin victory in the 1st round.

2025-05-02 14:37:36 Crin obviously has the momentum and will get strategical votes from Ponta voters, and maybe even from a lot Lasconi voters, many Simion voters might skip the 1st round because of him leading in the polls, the polling margins are also quite small, certainly when you take into account how inaccurate they were in the past, so Crin only getting 5% odds to win the 1st round in the other bet is pretty crazy in my opinion.

2025-05-02 15:10:57 Sweden is about to turn downwards in the official odds, at least making a correction towards more healthy odds that is.

2025-05-03 21:28:44 Diaspora turnout being high is good for both Simion and Dan, Lasconi's self destruction with the fake pictures is also good for Dan, he will inherit those votes, but I think he will lose from Simion in the second round while Antonescu will probably beat Simion, Simion might be underperforming in the first round due to people thinking he's safe and not inheriting that many votes from Ponta voters during the first round, and when the votes are being counted Crin will probably take the lead due to smaller counties coming in first while Dan will dump due to larger cities coming in later, yeah, I think it's going to be fun.

2025-05-03 21:50:26 It's basically going to be much closer than people think it will be, I wouldn't be surprised if Simion, Dan and Antonescu will all be within a few percentages from eachother.

2025-05-04 19:33:12 With these numbers Simion is actually going to win the second round, impressive.

2025-05-04 19:47:19 The fact that Simion scores so high while Ponta also maintains quite a lot of voters while Lasconi is almost out of voters to give for Dan or Crin is very good news for Simion's chances in the second round.

2025-05-04 19:56:29 The difference between Dan and Crin is still about the total vote that Lasconi received with only about 16% of the votes to go.

2025-05-05 15:58:53 Swedover

2025-05-06 21:45:07 Barcelover

2025-05-07 19:52:43 Ballon d'Or Bench Winner 2025

2025-05-07 19:57:50 The Ballon d'Or winner needs to have a story that the people who're going to give the points are eager to vote for, this is also why Rodri won and not Vinicius, Salah has a story.

2025-05-07 20:08:37 You can't afford to buy more than 12 shares or something?

2025-05-08 04:48:24 Maurice de Hond polling is best polling.

2025-05-09 14:55:21 Brace yourselves, volatility and volume are coming.

2025-05-09 15:18:51 This year's last minute total momentum enjoyers will be France and Germany.

2025-05-10 02:06:37 The new procedure to announce the qualifiers during the semi finals is going to cause mayhem and destruction in the order books, especially in the semi finals bets, I like it.

2025-05-10 02:21:13 People will be panicking about or FOMO'ing into multiple countries for each and every qualifier announcement: [link removed]

2025-05-10 13:01:06 The EBU just announced that people who bet on the wrong options will be visited by Lumo in the nights after the semi finals and the final.

2025-05-10 15:43:25 It's 50% jury and 50% public, this is also why Israel can't rig it.

2025-05-10 17:10:00 Onafets has sold his Switzerland's, now it's going to pump for sure.

2025-05-11 16:55:40 Knowing the EBU and the new qualifier announcement format they're going to joke around and make it seem that favorites like Sweden, Austria and such maybe didn't qualify by making them wait very long, that's going to be fun in the order books.

2025-05-11 20:07:28 I think Slovenia will qualify, but let's not go overboard with it's odds to actually win. Another one which I think will qualify is Armenia, it's shit and gay, but the diaspora are going to vote it towards the final anyway.

2025-05-11 22:48:31 I unironically think that Australia is going to end top 10 in both the Jury and Public vote.

2025-05-12 13:21:09 Happening, prepare for chaos: [link removed]

2025-05-12 19:47:58 Last year Croatia was on 65% on the official odds and it didn't win, why? My personal theory is that entries who're dependant on the public vote have it much harder to win now that the lukewarm goyslop Right is giving their votes to Israel, all while the mandatory Ukraine voter base is still active too. Thus Sweden will need to stand out very big to win, but the second participant for the public vote, which is Estonia, also falls in the same ''semi joke'' category.

2025-05-12 21:23:19 Big CH = Losses for AD

2025-05-13 17:23:29 Imagine what will happen here if they do Sweden 10th from the envelope.

2025-05-14 13:45:42 France, Netherlands and Austria about to eat serious odds from Sweden.

2025-05-14 13:47:48 Soon Germany will eat some too.

2025-05-14 14:21:33 If Austria's odds implode it will mostly go to France and the Netherlands.

2025-05-16 19:26:58 The EBU gave the best places to Sweden, Finland and France, but by putting France directly behind Sweden they're basically telling the juries ''vote for France'' and Finland will eat more televote votes away from Sweden than from France, hence the EBU wants Paris 2026.

2025-05-16 19:28:08 And the EBU fucked Israel and Estonia completely over, for obvious reasons.

2025-05-16 19:32:39 And Albania just became a total dark horse due to their placement and last minute hype, and very few Eastern European contenders means that they might be stacking into Albania.

2025-05-16 19:40:13 The Netherlands didn't get the best spot, but also not the worst, and in contrast to most contenders they can score high with both the jury and televote, hence if everything is close, diluted and divided the Netherlands can easily still win too.

2025-05-16 21:40:20 France versus Austria flippening incoming.

2025-05-16 23:18:44 [link removed]

2025-05-17 12:22:12 Reminder that last year when the official odds closed Croatia was at 52% (Sweden 41% now) and it became 2nd, Israel was 2nd with 16% in the odds and it became 5th, Switzerland was 3th in the odds with 15% and it won and Ukraine was 6th in the odds with only 2% and it became 3th.

2025-05-17 13:17:49 Also remember that the Jury vote will be done first and this will take about an hour or more, during that time people will start to panic because France and Switzerland, and maybe the Netherlands and Austria will be firm in the lead during that entire time.

2025-05-17 23:22:01 Well, that didn't work out with France, but at least Sweden didn't win.

2025-05-17 23:25:19 Or Israel.

2025-05-19 03:01:20 The new evenredige stelsel is going to help the NPS for sure, but that will just divide the blacks over even more parties while the hindus run away with the victory, of course also with a little help and money from the Netherlands.

2025-05-19 03:28:52 Mofo's out there literally just buying votes with free party logo'd mountainbikes: [link removed]

2025-05-21 13:52:43 The VHP will win, but very likely not with a majority, thus there's a good chance that other parties will allign behind Simons while the VHP likely will have to do some concessions.

2025-05-21 22:29:20 Just doing some math here: [link removed]

2025-05-22 05:41:29 The odds of the bets are literally reversed, VHP winning is much more secure than Santokhi becoming president, and Simons becoming president is much more likely than a victory for the NDP.

2025-05-22 16:43:04 People need to understand that Suriname parties are ethnic based, the hindu VHP from Santokhi is going to win, but the president needs to be chosen by the assembly, the VHP is not going to win with a super majority so there's a good chance that all the other ethnicities are going to conspire against the hindus and appoint Simons from the NDP as the president.

2025-05-22 16:46:23 Voor iedereen die een gratis fiets wilt: [link removed]

2025-05-22 17:02:45 It's also the first time with an evenredig stelsel instead of district representation, so the poor ghetto blacks are going to get more representatives into the assembly, but just divided over several parties.

2025-05-22 20:20:16 A battle of Suriname polling versus Dutch polling: [link removed]

2025-05-22 20:24:09 Zetelverdeling Peilers oogsten veel kritiek Volgens een peiling uit april zou de VHP (Vooruitstrevende Hervormingspartij) van zittend president Chan Santokhi opnieuw de grootste partij worden en 17 zetels behalen. Als tweede partij zou de NDP (Nationale Democratische Partij) van de eind vorig jaar overleden oud-president Desi Bouterse uit de bus komen met 14 zetels. Beide partijen zouden daarmee enkele zetels inleveren ten opzichte van hun huidige zeteltal in de Nationale Assemblee. Hiervan zou vooral de Nationale Partij Suriname (NPS) van Gregory Rusland profiteren: zij komt met 10 zetels op de derde plaats. De ABOP van ex-guerrillaleider Ronnie Brunswijk valt, mede door het nieuwe kiesstelsel, terug naar 4 zetels. En dan zijn er nog kleinere partijen (PL, A20, BEP) die niet meer dan 2 zetels zouden halen.

2025-05-22 20:25:53 While a VHP win is very likely, Santokhi becoming president is less likely due to the assembly having to choose the president.

2025-05-22 21:03:16 Yes, but last time he was absolutely correct, and every ''expert'' that's contacted on the 'Verkiezingen in Suriname: een podcast' is expecting the VHP to win without an absolute majority as well, maybe things are shifting in favor of the NDP, but I really don't think it will be enough, it could be, but I've just sold my Simons shares because I've found out that Simons has actual serious competitors for a possible presidency within her own party.

2025-05-22 21:04:35 Is er nog wel eenheid binnen de NDP nu de grote leider Desi Bouterse is weggevallen? En heeft Simons genoeg steun? We hebben nog geen besluit genomen wie de presidentskandidaat is, we willen eerst een maximaal aantal zetels halen”, zegt Simons terwijl ze het zweet van haar gezicht veegt. Ik heb wel grote ondersteuning, en ik zou president willen worden en ik heb genoeg bestuurlijke ervaring. Maar er zijn ook anderen binnen de partij met aspiraties om president te worden.”

2025-05-22 21:12:06 I do think that the NPS will relatively be the biggest winner, but also not enough to actually win and in my opinion the NDP will be the one that will be most hurted by the NPS surge, theoretically at least.

2025-05-22 21:34:44 This is not an issue though, the issue is that he's dead, if he was still alive the NDP would've won for sure.

2025-05-22 21:36:26 To be clear, I don't like the NDP, at all.

2025-05-22 21:58:52 Yeah, might work, but maybe people will see through it, but it will have to work very good for the NDP to win, but it nevertheless makes holding Simons shares a bit too volatile in my opinion.

2025-05-22 22:14:33 I see ''Ashwin Adhin'' has been added, that was fast, is Polymarket monitoring the comments or did someone request it?

2025-05-23 03:49:32 Santokhi having higher odds to become president than the odds of the VHP to win is pretty crazy.

2025-05-23 15:31:23 Yeah, but it's like a CDA or CDU/CSU, they have the most loyal voter base which also actually shows up whether they've hype or not, it's proof that they don't have hype though.

2025-05-23 15:39:51 Yeah, I agree that it's going to be very chaotic, I still think the VHP wins, but even when the VHP wins the coalition and president selection will still be chaotic, let alone of they lose, thus Santokhi becoming president should be lower in odds than the VHP winning, but it's actually reversed now (53 versus 47), so either Santokhi is too high or the VHP is too low.

2025-05-23 15:42:51 I see Santokhi is on 49 now, but that's still too high compared to the VHP odds of course.

2025-05-23 17:23:54 The poll from 2015 was the first poll ever in Suriname and absolutely correct though, but there's 3 options for this poll in my opinion, 1 is that's correct, 2 is that they used a very bad methodology, like blacks asking blacks who they're gonna vote for or just asking people in Paramaribo for example, which in my opinion is very likely since they aren't used to making polls, this would actually be their first, and option 3 is that this has been published by VHP or NPS allied actors to scare their voters towards the voting boots due to lack of hype.

2025-05-23 17:26:49 It's like how they're doing election debates for the first time too, and making accurate reliable polls is going to take some decades at the current pace.

2025-05-23 17:34:34 It's also true that both the Netherlands and the oil companies have a very strong preference for the VHP, which is something to consider.

2025-05-23 17:35:02 If you know what I mean.

2025-05-23 17:42:07 And Manthoera being a woman might also steal some of that ''woman vote'' away from the NDP.

2025-05-23 17:44:37 This bet is the ultimate proof that nobody knows shit.

2025-05-23 19:52:06 Typisch, ze gaan het nooit leren.

2025-05-23 20:07:44 DbSuriname seems to be pro-VHP, nevertheless: [link removed]

2025-05-24 00:57:20 Another news outlet with an own poll, VHP is also clearly in the lead here: [link removed]

2025-05-24 00:58:28 VHP: 1.255 stemmen NDP: 795 stemmen A20: 334 stemmen NPS: 235 stemmen OPTSU: 112 stemmen DA’91: 100 stemmen

2025-05-24 01:00:10 This outlet is clearly not just pro-VHP since it has the NDP in second place and the NPS only fourth.

2025-05-24 01:01:26 The poll you keep quoting is clearly fake or at least very ambigous, yet this one is misinformation?

2025-05-24 01:04:59 So far there's 4 polls, a Dutch poll, from the best Dutch poller who was right last time too, 2 news outlet polls and an ''external'' poll that leads to Jamaice, the first 3 have the VHP in the lead.

2025-05-24 01:07:20 No, you're just trying to pump the NDP, but whatever. You keep saying likes on Facebook are important, yet polls on news outlets aren't? It's all not perfect.

2025-05-24 01:22:38 Key News is clearly neutral too when you look at the polling results, NPS even 4th, yet VHP wins there too, and both news outlets from the polls have more followers than the ''Suriname Times'' on Twitter, which quite frankly almost looks fake with only several followers: [link removed]

2025-05-24 01:24:17 It's not fake, but both other outlets have more followers, it's that simple.

2025-05-24 01:28:31 And again Santokhi becoming president much higher in odds than the odds of the VHP winning, totally crazy, I believe the VHP will win without a total majority, therefor needs to do a coalition, but Santokhi is not popular anymore therefor they will find a compromise with selecting Mathoera.

2025-05-24 01:31:05 Yeah, it's crazy. Santokhi odds should be below VHP winning odds, but it's totally reversed now.

2025-05-24 02:34:24 Again, Surinamers aren't used to polling, the answer depends on the ethnicity that's asking the question what they're going to vote for, therefor a poll that's done by a Jamaican firm, whether it's real or not, is quite dubious, anonymous polls on news outlets have problems too, but at least there people won't have to lie what they're going to vote for, and there the VHP wins, but keep trusting the one poll that shows a different outcome from all other sources, polls and expert opinions.

2025-05-24 02:40:40 There's more blacks but they're divided over several black ethnicities and parties, the hindus are the biggest group as a stand alone group, they're the most united behind one party, the VHP and they're also very loyal when it comes to showing up to vote, and they also have diaspora support from the Netherlands with volunteers and money.

2025-05-24 03:09:08 Face to face is the problem, what ethnicities were asking the question to which ethnicities, and they only surveyd in 3 districts.

2025-05-24 04:06:00 Also keep in mind that the oil companies support the VHP, nobody wants to deal with the shit that the NDP is going to cause, nationalization this and that for sure, of course oil companies can't vote, but you know, who paid for all those hundreds or even thousands of free party logo'd bikes that the VHP was handing out in Paramaribo last week? It sure didn't come from the VHP's own pockets though.

2025-05-24 05:07:25 Oymirin if you truly believe everything you're saying then you wouldn't be buying VHP, also not as an hedge at these prices. The poll you keep quoting is an outlier (and the accuracy and methodology can be questioned too) and if anything it will scare every VHP and NPS voter towards the voting boot.

2025-05-24 05:09:59 Honestly I'm starting to think this was the actual reason for that poll and it might have even been paid for by the VHP.

2025-05-24 05:11:10 They had Bouterse, now not anymore.

2025-05-24 05:39:21 I'm arbing too but more than 10k VHP is a bit much if you really think the NDP is going to win.

2025-05-24 14:38:47 So I evaluated whether Key News, where the online poll was done with more than 3k votes and had 40% for VHP and 25% for the NDP, is pro or anti VHP, and I'm now quite sure it's anti VHP or at least neutral, there's even a redactional opinion piece that's clearly anti Santokhi in which they claim Santokhi used his Easter message for public manipulation, thus the VHP even came out on top on an anti-VHP news outlet. [link removed]

2025-05-24 14:42:39 Yeah, anonymous, possible manipulation, but in my opinion polling in Suriname should be done by asking ''Who do you think your neighbor and your uncle are going to vote for?'' instead of asking ''Who are you going to vote for?'', so anonymous polls are very useful in my opinion.

2025-05-24 15:04:03 Or did they do this to scare NDP voters towards the voting boots? Just like with the poll that was done by the Jamaican firm, but just in reverse, it's all possible.

2025-05-24 15:12:13 That must be an add and not of their own, I can't see it, I'm using adblock.

2025-05-24 15:13:14 [link removed]

2025-05-24 21:24:19 Man, monitoring the Suriname elections was already crazy enough for me.

2025-05-25 01:31:48 1 or 2 mil off, in either direction, and a strong or very weak Sunday drop and everything's different again.

2025-05-25 13:29:04 Turnout in VHP districts going high on the verkiezingsdashboard of the ministerie.

2025-05-25 13:30:14 ABOP districts very low.

2025-05-25 13:33:23 Paramaribo about average.

2025-05-25 13:41:31 Wanica and Nickerie going crazy, which is good for the VHP.

2025-05-25 13:45:07 There's a link to the dashboard on this page ''verkiezingsdashboard'', but Polymarket doesn't let me copy the direct link: [link removed]

2025-05-25 13:45:52 It's clickable in the article.

2025-05-25 13:47:16 Commewijne going strong too.

2025-05-25 13:55:26 Para average, which is a clear NDP district, which of course isn't a good sign for the NDP.

2025-05-25 14:01:14 It was a districtenstelsel, so the districts have clear proven profiles, when the districts with a pro VHP profile have clear higher turnouts than the rest it says a thing or two about what's happening.

2025-05-25 14:01:57 If the NDP was going strong they shouldn't have higher turnouts but districts like Para should.

2025-05-25 14:07:26 But that could've also turned out in an early headstart, which hasn't happened.

2025-05-25 14:14:22 Coronie a very small but clear NDP district also not going strong, the districts with many hindu's are really outperforming, and districts where both the VHP and the NDP are a little less strong are underperforming greatly, meaning voters from other parties are giving up.

2025-05-25 14:49:16 Wanica, Nickerie and Commewijne normally score below Paramaribo, and they're now well above that.

2025-05-25 14:55:35 Paramaribo always has the highest turnout, which isn't the case now, which is a bad sign for the NDP.

2025-05-25 14:56:37 Even smaller NDP districts are overtaking it.

2025-05-25 15:07:53 Average turnout per election, thus Paramaribo is underperforming and the pro hindu districts are overperforming: Gemiddelde opkomst over 2000-2020 per district (geschat, gebaseerd op bovenstaande): Paramaribo: ~72% Wanica: ~70% Nickerie: ~67% Coronie: ~63% Saramacca: ~65% Commewijne: ~68% Para: ~65% Marowijne: ~62% Sipaliwini: ~58% Brokopondo: ~58%

2025-05-25 15:32:41 The current administration got inflation down from like 60% to 7%, which was caused by the NDP, it got an IMF loan and is working with the oil companies.

2025-05-25 15:34:50 If there's such hype for the NDP Paramaribo would be highest in voter turnout, and not like 6th or 7th even, and definitely not Nickerie and Commewijne in the voter turnout lead. The NDP needs a high turnout in it's core area's.

2025-05-25 15:35:35 Well, the VHP also needs a high turnout in it's core area's of course, but those are all in the lead.

2025-05-25 15:38:20 sry man

2025-05-25 15:44:22 Very hindu area's overperforming less hindu area's in turnout is a direct indication, if the NDP was overperforming these area's wouldn't be the area's to overperform, it would be other area's, it's that simple.

2025-05-25 15:45:33 And I mean this in a relative sense compared to turn outs in earlier elections, the data is clear.

2025-05-25 16:06:16 Also, current 30% is below average as a whole, also not a good sign for the NDP: [link removed]

2025-05-25 16:44:52 Paramaribo still 7th in turnout, usually they end up 1st place, the NDP needs a high turnout there and it's not getting that, it's of course the most multi ethnic district. While districts with relatively many hindu's keep overperforming.

2025-05-25 16:48:07 The turnout overall, so the speed with which turnout is going is below average compared to earlier elections, lower means better for VHP, higher means better for NDP: [link removed]

2025-05-25 16:49:49 It's only going well or at least normal compared to earlier elections in ''anti-NDP'' districts.

2025-05-25 16:54:49 It's literally in the article, and they have it directly from the live dashboard of the ministry of domestic affairs, Polymarket doesn't let me paste the direct link to that though.

2025-05-25 16:56:00 If you click on ''verkiezingsdashboard'' in this article you will find it directly: [link removed]

2025-05-25 17:07:56 Relative turnout just keeps slacking further and further compared to earlier elections, so yeah, there's not much anti-government hype going, good for the VHP.

2025-05-25 17:32:49 The total turnout thus far keeps being low, which is in the advantage of the VHP and Santokhi, while districts with many VHP voters are scoring above average, there's a live dashboard from the ministry, but Polymarket doesn't let me paste that link directly, but here's an article about it: [link removed]

2025-05-25 18:15:54 The turnout of the heavy hindu districts are now about 6 to 8% in the lead of Paramaribo, this is normally reversed.

2025-05-25 18:24:05 This screenshot is a bit older, but you can clearly see that the hindu leaning districts are outperforming, which normally isn't the case, normally Paramaribo wins in relative turnout: [link removed]

2025-05-25 18:25:16 The gap has become even bigger since then.

2025-05-25 19:08:41 Paramaribo still at 43% turnout, the ghetto's aren't showing up to vote for the NDP.

2025-05-25 19:11:39 Official government dashboard, click on ''verkiezingsdashboard'' in this article: [link removed]

2025-05-25 19:20:03 Total turnout still not at 50%, the ghetto's aren't showing up.

2025-05-25 19:37:55 Sure man, this is surely fake news too: [link removed]

2025-05-25 19:38:22 NPS is worrying about the low turnout.

2025-05-25 19:39:41 District Aantal Kiezers Opkomst Opkomst % Nickerie 23.639 13.339 56,43% Saramacca 12.933 6.933 53,61% Commewijne 24.785 12.807 51,67% Wanica 100.082 51.990 51,95% Brokopondo 9.051 4.527 50,02% Para 21.376 9.564 44,74% Paramaribo 163.010 71.313 43,75% Marowijne 16.951 5.948 35,09% Coronie 2.067 726 35,12%

2025-05-25 19:48:34 NPD needs high turnout too.

2025-05-25 19:50:04 Turnout is historically low, that is positive for the current goverment and leading party, which is Santokhi and the VHP: [link removed]

2025-05-25 20:02:27 Santokhi 56% while VHP is at 47%, it simply doesn't make sense. Either Santokhi is too high or the VHP is too low.

2025-05-25 20:04:07 In my opinion it's the VHP that is too low, it's going to be a hard coalition to build, Santokhi might have to step aside to get a coalition.

2025-05-25 20:09:30 Crazy odds again.

2025-05-25 20:24:50 Still low voter turnout: [link removed]

2025-05-25 20:40:43 Oymirin silently buying VHP again.

2025-05-25 21:17:39 The only districts coming close to or going over their average historical turnout are all VHP leaning districts.

2025-05-25 21:19:09 Dashboard of the ministry, click on ''verkiezingsdashboard'' in this article: [link removed]

2025-05-25 22:13:08 They're going to take a break to dance and drink for about 3 hours now for sure.

2025-05-25 22:16:11 Total turnout ended really low, with the exception of the VHP leaning area's.

2025-05-25 22:18:17 No, but there were still people in lines to vote.

2025-05-25 22:18:41 Those are still allowed, it's closed for the rest.

2025-05-25 22:53:44 They're literally just starting to count.

2025-05-25 22:55:50 They've counted about 70 votes.

2025-05-25 22:57:14 And their server is smoking because you people keep refreshing.

2025-05-25 23:05:23 The server broke and it was based on 70 votes.

2025-05-25 23:08:32 Suriname vote counting usually takes hours or maybe days.

2025-05-25 23:08:43 And now they also have a fried server.

2025-05-25 23:13:47 People about to start rioting due to the slow process: [link removed]

2025-05-25 23:18:08 Er is altijd een serieus probleem gaande in Suriname.

2025-05-25 23:21:04 We won't know until everyone stops crashing the servers.

2025-05-25 23:21:46 ABOP area's had very low voter turnout.

2025-05-25 23:23:03 We gaan de uitslag nooit krijgen.

2025-05-25 23:24:48 Iedereen is achterlijk.

2025-05-25 23:34:45 De oranje olifant gaat winnen.

2025-05-25 23:37:26 16 - 16

2025-05-26 00:40:29 It's close, only a small part counted, and we don't even know from which districts the counted votes come from.

2025-05-26 00:48:51 It all depends on which districts are being counted or have been counted, we only know more if we know that.

2025-05-26 00:50:35 All the districts that had the highest turn outs.

2025-05-26 00:53:32 [link removed]

2025-05-26 00:54:50 Verkiezingsdashboard be like: Bijna klaar moederneuker

2025-05-26 01:00:57 This is quite low, not good for the NDP: Volgens Ramadhin is inmiddels bevestigd dat de landelijke opkomst bij deze verkiezingen rond de 63 procent ligt.

2025-05-26 01:02:41 18 - 18

2025-05-26 01:07:42 [link removed] de link in het rood daar, soms werkt het, soms niet.

2025-05-26 02:07:36 350 verschil over.

2025-05-27 16:54:38 All this Romania betting has led to a huge international surpluss of ''Romania experts'', which will soon be as useful as a liberal arts degree for sure.

2025-05-27 20:03:41 I literally called out the fake poll that had a +20 lead margin for the NDP, the difference was 1-2% in the end, it's just a shame that it just wasn't enough for the flip.

2025-05-29 21:21:34 People obviously connecting the Romanian election with this election, but common man, Nawrocki isn't a gypsy.

2025-05-30 03:26:18 Always bet on Brunswijk crashing out.

2025-05-30 03:29:04 Because Brunswijk is being Brunswijk.

2025-05-30 03:30:11 Also, ''t's going to be a woman'', Santokhi isn't a woman, but I do see a hindu woman in the options.

2025-05-30 03:47:27 I heard they introduced a new Karate move in the movie, it's called the ''Market Flip''.

2025-05-30 20:50:40 BangBang is making me question whether if my positions are on the right side of history, not cool man.

2025-05-30 21:14:35 Nawrocki's party also has a lot more general support than the party that Simion represents, meaning a much bigger pool of potential voters, so you can't compare that on a 1:1 basis either.

2025-06-01 04:36:08 He dropped his No's for Nawrocki though.

2025-06-01 04:55:29 We're so back.

2025-06-01 14:58:55 GG.

2025-06-01 20:04:01 Interesting, Nawrocki in the lead in Czestochowa while Trzaskowski won that in 2020 despite losing to Duda overall.

2025-06-01 20:12:49 And Wtoctawek, which Trza won in 2020 with about 20% on Duda has him only 7% in the lead now.

2025-06-01 20:15:27 Quite frankly the counties that are currently reporting in are all supposed to go to Trzas, meaning what's going to happen when pro Nawrocki counties will come in.

2025-06-01 20:17:01 [link removed]

2025-06-01 20:29:04 Still waiting on counties reporting that Nawrocki is supposed to win, with the current counties that have reported in I would've expected this or a little more lead for Trzas even.

2025-06-01 20:31:19 Did they inform the smaller villages and counties that there was an election?

2025-06-01 20:34:25 Trzas won Lodz with 27% in 2020, now the difference is only 19%, keep seeing smaller differences than expected, they're still counting of course.

2025-06-01 20:36:54 The movement came from Warsaw reporting, meanwhile still almost no smaller villages and counties.

2025-06-01 20:39:41 Bigger cities reporting in before smaller villages and cities is something totally new.

2025-06-01 20:52:19 Trzas leads in counties he's supposed to win and will win keep being smaller than expected.

2025-06-01 20:54:43 I'm not so sure about that, poor man.

2025-06-01 20:57:38 I guess a flip is back on the menu, bois.

2025-06-01 20:59:18 Nawrocki keep doing better in smaller counties than Duda in 2020 and he also keeps doing better than Duda in 2020 Trzas counties.

2025-06-01 21:05:02 Bakalarzewo ended 45% KN while in 2020 Duda won it with 29%, yeah, totally happening.

2025-06-01 21:08:38 Grabowo ended exactly the same for KN as in 2020 for Duda, 62% then and now.

2025-06-01 21:12:49 Turning on Laika Party to 200% volume right now.

2025-06-01 21:16:27 Byton ended same as in 2020, KN 48% lead like Duda.

2025-06-01 21:20:30 Almost all smaller counties ending up the same or slightly better for KN as for Duda in 2020, and Duda won.

2025-06-01 21:26:10 All smaller counties keep giving the same relative results or slight better for KN 2025 than they gave Duda 2020.

2025-06-01 21:30:25 Small far western countie Dabie went with about 5% to Trzas in 2020 now KN won with 1%, happening.

2025-06-01 21:32:36 Another small far western countie Trzebiechow went with about 4% to Trzas in 2020, now to KN with about 0.1%, it's happening bois.

2025-06-01 21:34:34 In comparison thus far you only see Trzas counties flipping to KN, not the other way, KN is winning what Duda won.

2025-06-01 21:36:01 In comparison to 2020 that is.

2025-06-01 21:39:42 KN keeps winning small villages with slighty better margins than Duda.

2025-06-01 21:40:18 And even flipping some old Trzas counties.

2025-06-01 22:05:41 Still the same look, KN mostly outperforming Duda in Duda won counties and the only counties that flip compared to 2020 are flipping towards KN, never the other way.

2025-06-01 22:09:51 A small northwestern countie Bedzino was won by Trzas in 2020 with 17% and he now won it by only 1%.

2025-06-02 01:34:47 Flipping today's Polish election market took more resilience if I'm honest.

2025-06-02 01:35:56 Sony this, Sony that, I'm just simply taking my profits, flipping today's Polish election market made me tired man.

2025-06-02 01:44:46 This was fun, can't wait until the next Polish elections.

2025-06-02 05:57:04 I heard Nicusor already called Ursula to plea for some help to deal with Romania's nationwide sudden increase of debts.

2025-06-02 06:02:51 What if both Simion and Nicusor have been betting and shitposting here for months as well, Simion with a negative PnL for sure.

2025-06-02 19:52:50 NSC is keeping everyone hostage with their 20 seats, new elections will bring them back down to 0 seats, most of those voters will go back to the CDA, everyone's problem solved.

2025-06-02 19:58:38 Senate minority problem is getting bigger and bigger as well, in which NSC delivers exactly 0 seats.

2025-06-02 20:04:33 Nobody is getting what they want because the current coalition partner NSC is blocking almost every attempt at making policy, the current polls give NSC 0 seats, those voters will go back to the other coalition parties and the CDA, which is also the most likely new coalition partner.

2025-06-02 20:34:41 I'm good, people will be buying more expensive No's anyway.

2025-06-02 20:40:22 They also get an extra long holiday if they do it now and when they come back there's just campaigning for weeks or even longer on the menu.

2025-06-02 20:45:55 And if they don't do it now it will fall in the first weeks of September anyway, due to Prinsjesdag disagreements, which in turn leads to wintery elections and negotiations like last time and ain't nobody got time for that.

2025-06-02 21:12:29 Also, what is his demand? His demand is that his coalition partners start agreeing and do something to decrease the immigration flow, you sure that they're going to sacrifice themselves for that to keep the non-functioning coalition alive for about 3 months longer?

2025-06-03 14:01:53 Thanks! The Dutch election markets are going to be fun for sure.

2025-06-03 14:04:08 Brace yourselves, Dutch election markets are coming.

2025-06-03 16:50:13 A dystopia that provides you opening weekend box office markets every weekend for the rest of your life.

2025-06-03 22:31:08 Timmerfrans.

2025-06-03 22:41:53 Where's Jezus Leeft?

2025-06-04 17:26:41 Schoover.

2025-06-04 20:07:02 The strategy of the other parties, of course, is now to blame the fall and non-existent results of the coalition on the PVV, which isn't going to work out because NSC's sabotage has been clear as day, new narratives and discourses will appear after this becomes clear in the polls.

2025-06-04 20:09:08 And NSC has already gone from 20 to 1 seat in the polls, which is all you need to know to conclude this isn't going to work out, people blame the NSC.

2025-06-04 21:47:59 Yeah, but the sabotage was just too obvious, so the fall and this narrative won't cause big electoral changes, the fall of the coalition has basically been priced into the polls for some time already.

2025-06-04 23:03:51 I don't tend to use news sources, I'm even supposed to come up with my own analysis given my somewhat relevant academical background regarding policies and politics, I only look at data.

2025-06-04 23:13:13 Well, and some general Political Theory of course.

2025-06-04 23:15:53 It's rumoured that Rob Jetten cried himself to sleep last night after visiting this page.

2025-06-05 15:55:30 I don't think the VVD wants to win: [link removed]

2025-06-05 15:58:05 Rule number one in Dutch elections is: with women you loose.

2025-06-05 21:33:59 Yeah, it's basically the ''we just want cheap labour, man-party'', it's basically the Dutch GOP.

2025-06-05 21:45:00 No Rob Jetten, this one isn't gonna be for you either, man.

2025-06-05 21:51:48 You heard my boi Schweinsteiger, it's Dembelover.

2025-06-06 04:20:18 This comment is sponsored by the SGP.

2025-06-06 15:31:13 Because of how the Dutch parlementary system works, the end of the campaign almost always ends in a race between two parties. This is because at the end people switch and cluster into parties that might actually win and deliver the new Prime Minister. The Leftist choice will obviously be GL/PVDA, the Right is bigger so it actually could deliver 2 potential winner candidate parties, but the PVV is much more certain than the VVD, the VVD might also be hurt by a somewhat surging CDA.

2025-06-06 16:38:10 Vinicius was trading at 96c last year, people were surely very sure, until they weren't.

2025-06-07 17:13:30 I'm afraid that Wilders is just a fake and gay Zionist, democracy won't bring the solution.

2025-06-07 17:17:24 Let's be honest, a super majority of the population is retarded, why are they even voting.

2025-06-07 20:55:00 The problem with JA21 is that it's just a bunch of loose oppertunists who start throwing tantrums at eachother when there's even the slightest chance that they might have been placed too low on the list to be elected, last time more than half of them ran off to the BBB just to better their odds of being elected.

2025-06-07 22:51:36 ''Will Ingrid Coenradie start an OnlyFans in 2025?'' bet soon for sure.

2025-06-07 23:10:39 I just hope Annabel Nanninga doesn't start one.

2025-06-09 20:20:52 The VVD just implemented a dated tool, this time the exclusion of the PVV has already been priced in, they might win some votes, but they won't gain anything from the PVV and they will lose more than they will gain to JA21, absolutely cooked.

2025-06-11 03:50:49 The first data already shows that the VVD's strategy isn't going to work, the PVV will keep it's lead and the VVD will lose seats to JA21, and the GL/PVDA will start to surge when it becomes clear that it's the last standing contender to win versus the PVV.

2025-06-13 00:44:03 Something happened.

2025-06-13 05:34:43 Unless the greatest ally of the US unleases the Samson Option this is an absolute lock.

2025-06-15 01:16:26 Man, this cliffhanger is more tense than the situation in Israel.

2025-06-15 01:19:04 Although it's probably going to be another case of studio estimation resolvement, so 85.06M for sure.

2025-06-16 01:29:55 Unverified reports of individuals stealing and burning the receipts and cash registers of big theaters while screaming ''No Box Office Day'', this sounds like typical Betwick box office rigging shenanigans.

2025-06-16 02:38:46 Movie idea: a bunch of degens rig the box office to win it big on Polymarket, directed by Damien Leone, Ocean's style but just a little different, struggling production companies are offeriing me millions already.

2025-06-16 13:55:06 It's starting, Universal HQ just launched ballistic missiles towards Sony HQ.

2025-06-16 17:10:04 Source? I made it up.

2025-06-16 17:14:28 It is until it isn't any longer.

2025-06-16 17:18:31 Iran just announced an unilateral ceasefire until this market is properly resolved.

2025-06-16 18:19:48 Mission Impossible was estimated 10.3M, became 10.6M, hmm.

2025-06-17 16:56:12 Saai.

2025-06-17 17:03:28 Whenever you see someone buying or pumping up D66, just know that it's just Rob Jetten trying to make himself feel better.

2025-06-17 20:21:59 A war might be inflationatory, but it also costs a lot of, you know, money, JPOW is the only man who's left standing between us and WWIII, total Nobel Peace Prize material.

2025-06-17 22:03:28 Het wordt Bijbels.

2025-06-19 05:41:39 Okay, I don't even care about your existence, peasant.

2025-06-19 06:06:33 If the Iran versus Israel war stays an hot topic it's a guaranteed victory for Timmerfrans, as GL/PvdA is the only mildly Israel critic party of the top contenders.

2025-06-19 06:11:25 This is also why Wilders can't be trusted, the true Right opposes Zionism.

2025-06-19 06:28:56 How am I going to explain my starving wife and kids that I lost all our live savings by betting on a kids movie about a dragon but that I'm going to win it all back by betting on a movie about zombies?

2025-06-19 22:00:56 The VVD, the PVV is basically out of the equation, but it will keep it's sturdy voter base, and GL/PvdA will start saying that the VVD is actually not that much different from the PVV.

2025-06-21 15:46:19 The Normie Right Israel First bubble is real, PvdA/GL's strategy is going to work: [link removed]

2025-06-22 01:50:49 Taylor Swift?

2025-06-22 01:52:08 ''Iran heeft een serieus probleem''?

2025-06-22 03:41:47 So you're telling me that Iran is just gonna bend the knee after this show? And that Israel and the US are just going to abandon all of their regime change efforts that have been in the works for decades?

2025-06-22 03:45:20 I don't know man, but I just got a hunch that this story ain't over yet.

2025-06-22 04:25:00 Yeah, people are too focused on big names, this tournament is different, Inter's odds to win, which is their only path to become 1st in this group, are much lower.

2025-06-22 05:47:12 Man, I just hope Zion Don doesn't order a strike on Borselle just because we host the ICC.

2025-06-22 17:26:23 If Monterrey doesn't win, River will end up first with a draw against Inter, if it's a 3 way tie River needs to win and Monterrey will need to win and requires a 0 - 0 by River versus Inter.

2025-06-23 15:14:13 Timmerfrans is using taxpayer money to bribe Polymarket to pump up the GL/PvdA numbers for sure. I'm not sure about the effectivity of that though, if it was up to me I would just pump and dump Kysia Hekster.

2025-06-23 16:05:33 Damn, I really thought she was in her 30's.

2025-06-24 01:18:12 Rumours saying that Trump invited Khamenei over to come have a few beers and a barbeque.

2025-06-24 17:25:07 JA21 being higher to win than to end up in 2nd place just shows how irrational and illiquid many markets really are.

2025-06-24 17:33:28 [link removed]

2025-06-24 17:34:51 Summary: er klopt geen kut van de methodologie.

2025-06-27 20:30:32 Yeah, but it's about 7 mil Thursday, so it would require a multiplier of about x7.5 or higher, it's definitely possible, but I'll take my chances given recent general box office performances.

2025-06-27 20:49:04 I'm having a hard time to come up with a funny comment regarding F1, I guess F1 just ain't very funny.

2025-06-27 20:52:39 It was about 7.2M if I'm correct, but I'm also weary of it being frontloaded, I mean, it's sort of a niche subject and try to telling any woman ''we're going to a movie about F1'' without getting a naggy face reaction.

2025-06-27 21:48:15 Also, I've noticed there's a correlation between trading volume here and general box office weekend under- or overperformances compared to the tracking and official projections.

2025-06-28 15:45:49 That's 3-7-15.

2025-06-28 15:49:12 It's going to require quite a Saturday bump to get over 55M.

2025-06-28 16:03:57 3-7-15-(16-18)-(12.5-14), it's going to be very close.

2025-06-29 16:19:03 Vitinha actually plays, also won the Nations League and Dembele didn't make a significant personal difference in the UCL SF and Final.

2025-06-29 17:21:28 I'm pondering and I'm seeing a max cap of the CDA / Bontebal due to the Omtzigt Effect, their behavior is already starting to resemble the NSC debacle which is still to fresh in the memory. I'm also seeing a very low turnout, the current political narratives and discourses are absolutely cooked, people are tuning out and telling people that ''this the most important election of your life'' is harder when the last coalition didn't make it for a full year.

2025-07-01 04:06:02 Underdogs in control, GG.

2025-07-03 23:04:23 My point is that their max cap has gone down drastically over the course of the past few days.

2025-07-03 23:13:30 Not when their potential voters are amongst the most disappointed of all due to everything that happened with NSC and BBB, Bontebal shouldn't have been so vocally negative about these asylum laws, people are going to remember that.

2025-07-04 21:07:39 Al-Over

2025-07-04 21:30:47 I heard Rob Jetten is currently on the verge of a total crashout on his vacation because the odds of this bet keep haunting him day and night wherever he goes.

2025-07-05 16:17:48 Damn, the volume here is even worse than the stadium attendance, total equal demand, gameplay and pay soon for sure.

2025-07-06 15:38:38 50/50 is clearly the most suited way to resolve this dispute.

2025-07-06 16:46:26 The government of Ukraine obviously thought that it would qualify as a suit for sure.

2025-07-06 16:47:45 But now they have to fight UMA too.

2025-07-06 17:18:26 The suit is out there.

2025-07-06 19:30:11 Maybe this will finally be the ultimate catalyst for Polymarket to come up with their own governance token and a partial airdrop.

2025-07-06 19:50:27 Yeah, I mean, it's not really a suit, but it's also not really not a suit.

2025-07-07 19:51:10 I'm simply on the Yes side because I prefer chaos above boring and often actually quite risky ''bonding'' shenanigans.

2025-07-07 20:00:14 Sorry schat, nieuwe bet voor de Nederlandse verkiezingen is zojuist gedropt.

2025-07-07 20:02:52 ''Rob Jetten'', sorry Rob, ik denk het niet.

2025-07-07 20:11:02 Wat is het toch ook eigenlijk maar een zeer armoedig deelnemersveld.

2025-07-07 20:17:29 Als de VVD nog harder onderuit wilt gaan dan dat nu het geval is, moeten ze vooral Dilan vervangen met Klaas fucking Dijkhoff.

2025-07-07 21:05:54 En nu is het wachten op de internationale liquidity inflow voor Geert Wilders a la AfD, Simion of (Trzakowski? Geen idee hoe je dat schrijft) liquidity inflows.

2025-07-07 21:48:41 We're missing some semi-''viable'' candidates though, like Joost Eerdmans and Jesse Klaver.

2025-07-08 05:41:03 Can't we just ask Donald if he finds this outfit appropriate enough for the White House and resolve it based on that? It's not like he has something better to do other than golfing and sending billions to Israel.

2025-07-08 19:57:27 The box office these days is just not very super man.

2025-07-09 21:31:55 Nee, dat was Nawrocki, het was Trzakowski die door de fans van Nicusor totaal werd opgekocht.

2025-07-10 22:51:52 So y'all telling me EmpireCity Box Office is wrong on this one, he's surely going to kick the asses of all those non-beliebers if he's right, that's what I know.

2025-07-11 05:16:55 Man, Trump has never done anything for free in his life, except maybe for kissing some wall in Jerusalem, but that's it basically.

2025-07-11 05:20:48 Damien Leone just called me, the flip is on, I repeat, the flip is on.

2025-07-11 05:47:55 I guess not, man.

2025-07-11 05:54:16 True Thursday (18M) x6 is 108M, it will be a little bit higher, but it's going to be close, that's quite a multiplier for the season.

2025-07-11 05:58:07 This bet reminds me of the Sonic bet.

2025-07-11 21:08:41 The media and talking heads will start a campaign on Vitinha as the real maestro of PSG who next to that also won the Nations League together with Jota, and rightfully so.

2025-07-12 00:27:40 De box office heeft dit weekend geen serieus probleem.

2025-07-12 16:56:06 Totally schizophrenic price movements.

2025-07-12 17:02:01 2x true Friday is enough to make it past 124, that's problematic.

2025-07-12 17:11:46 It doesn't have to make that of course, but the reception is quite positive, didn't sell 100% though, will keep a share.

2025-07-13 01:08:26 This bet is worse for the general public mental health than Zelensky's suit bet.

2025-07-13 01:10:00 And this market is not even directed by Damien Leone, he's on vacation.

2025-07-13 04:05:06 Whether PSG wins or loses doesn't even matter, Vitinha will start eating points from Dembele.

2025-07-13 14:10:41 I'm literally the 2nd Vitinha holder.

2025-07-13 20:12:47 I still think Vitinha will win the Golden Ball of the World Cup, either way, Vitinha's case is simply stronger, and if PSG loses Yamal, Salah and maybe even Cole fucking Palmer will be back in the run too.

2025-07-14 02:03:06 This stuff is just going to continue like this for a minimum of 13 hours.

2025-07-14 14:21:40 Knowledge of the day: technically every odd is 50/50, something either happens or it doesn't.

2025-07-15 13:19:55 Britbongs will start pushing Palmer for sure.

2025-07-16 16:26:54 I'm 100% sure that Trump will have absolutely no urge at all to talk about Powell in the coming 2 weeks.

2025-07-17 19:58:26 Yeah, Spain is the favorite, but not like these odds, c'mon man.

2025-07-17 22:07:18 What the hell was even that

2025-07-18 16:06:29 This is also why Rodri won last year, they want to start a tradition to award the orchestrators.

2025-07-18 19:50:46 Well, guess Spain will get it done, but let's keep it at that England, France, Germany and Italy are a lot better than Switzerland.

2025-07-19 22:45:23 Italy - Germany final for sure, it's a lock.

2025-07-20 23:03:28 I Know What You Did Last Smurf

2025-07-23 23:04:53 Due to everyone excluding the PVV has led to the situation that Timmerfrans doesn't even has to win the elections to become Premier, he just needs to beat the CDA and VVD because those 2 can't form anything on their own without either Timmerfrans or the PVV.

2025-07-23 23:09:42 17D Chess Timmerfrans

2025-07-24 20:17:44 The closer we get to the announcement of the nominees the narratives will start popping up, one good Liverpool game and things will start swinging again, for example, here's where PSG is in a disadvantage because nobody watches the Ligue 1.

2025-07-24 22:39:33 I want Powell to do his next conference on the same construction site, including a purple construction helmet.

2025-07-25 16:05:01 My this week's freshly made new model says circa 135M.

2025-07-25 16:13:28 Not only Superman, most if not all superhero movies.

2025-07-25 16:28:53 Because I anticipated a lower than 24M preview.

2025-07-26 18:29:40 Vakantie

2025-07-26 20:06:37 VVD not winning confirmed, liberals will flock to D66 and conservatives to JA21, this just might be the first ever Rob Jetten W.

2025-07-30 18:58:13 GG voor Tromp

2025-08-01 06:11:30 Bontenbal better presents a firm anti-immigration election program (not going to happen, lol) or else his odds will significantly decrease again.

2025-08-01 06:12:37 Temporary Bontenbal Mania.

2025-08-01 15:07:22 I know, that's why they're going down, but the CDA can have a sort of similar fate if they choose for the same approach.

2025-08-01 20:07:35 Expecting liquidity inflow on every single player that get's a nominee, also expecting Vitinha, Salah and Hakimi to rise significantly.

2025-08-01 20:10:13 I think Yamal's odds will rise too, but not as significant in the relative sense as the others as he's already on 8%.

2025-08-01 21:12:20 Groundhog Day but it's just the September FOMC at the Fed, starring Ryan Gosling as JPOW.

2025-08-01 23:08:14 Forget what I said about Hakimi though, they gonna cook him.

2025-08-02 20:00:10 There will be boomers walking up out of nowhere.

2025-08-02 20:01:15 Probably not enough to get above 20, but above 17, well, boomers be useful for once, do the right thing.

2025-08-04 19:53:27 Can someone replace the VVD logo for a picture of Dilan in the shiny purple top?

2025-08-04 23:07:46 Coenradover

2025-08-05 20:12:01 Bookies are currently upping Yamal significantly.

2025-08-07 15:05:27 Bookies still upping Yamal, Yamal now at 28.5% at bet365, Salah almost 6%.

2025-08-08 14:58:03 The markets will soon find out that tariffing gold is quite bearish for gold as it destroys US demand.

2025-08-09 14:53:59 The US is not an island, pull out US demand from whatever market you can think off and prices will globally collapse for said market.

2025-08-09 17:07:10 We're getting into the territory where the VVD might pull out the Klaas Dijkhoff Card pre-emptively.

2025-08-10 16:58:37 Still waiting on the CDA verkiezingsprogramma, stances on Israel and immigration will the most important.

2025-08-10 17:01:35 The GL/PvdA on the other hand doesn't have to come up with anything special, they won't have to turn on anything in regards to their current message, that's a big advantage the other don't have.

2025-08-10 19:51:58 As I understand it all missing players will be added this week.

2025-08-10 20:26:53 The CDA now has to worry about BBB again, if they aren't going pro-Israel and sufficiently anti-immigration much of their base will start to flip flop to BBB again.

2025-08-11 14:30:04 [link removed]

2025-08-13 14:04:54 [link removed] BBB made it's move, now it's up to the CDA to make a move.

2025-08-16 22:04:28 They are, a lot of ex-CDA politicians, same geographic strongholds, same target demographics, older people, farmers, quite close in idea's but just a bit more Right, it's basically the Catholic Right of the CDA, if Bontenbal (gereformeerd woke edition) turns to woke on immigration and Israel a lot of people will switch, not enough for the BBB to become bigger than the CDA, but more than big enough to cause the CDA not to win, and BBB has a lot of Senate seats which are basically required for the coming coalition to incorporate which they will make very clear during the campaign.

2025-08-17 12:58:52 Wilders isn't a good debater, I wonder if a majority of PVV voters even thinks he's a good debater, but his debating skills don't really matter, people aren't voting on him for his debates.

2025-08-17 13:02:06 CDA @ 10 = You're right / CDA @ 25 = I'm right

2025-08-18 19:25:13 His debates are just oneliners that polarize effectively, he surely wins a significant share of his target population, but it's limited at that, a good debater is able to win voters from all sides.

2025-08-18 19:44:41 GL/PvdA have come up with a very strategic campaign, emphasis on housing while also presenting a max cap on immigration that's not too low for it's own base either might just be the winning combination, a light Danish Social Democrat model.

2025-08-18 19:49:45 If the CDA becomes too Protestant coded they will scare Catholics to the BBB.

2025-08-18 19:51:14 I wouldn't vote for a Catholic coded party and I'm sure that feeling is totally mutual.

2025-08-18 19:53:44 That coming infight might just destroy the VVD even further.

2025-08-18 20:04:17 It's a part, but in my opinion the most important part is the differences between Protestants and Catholics, which not many people still talk about, but I dare to bet that a super majority of NSC and BBB voters was Catholic, they will easily turn their backs to the CDA again if the CDA is going to recognize Palestina, not going hard on immigration and be too Protestant coded, I'm quite sure this flip flopping target population doesn't like Tijs and the EO either for example.

2025-08-18 21:13:29 I mean, it looks like pretty srs business over there in DC, everyone wouldn't be there if it wasn't srs business, that's my theory.

2025-08-19 20:06:24 Yeah, and see the rest of the BBB, all Catholic, the Balkenende and Verhagen period was the last time that the CDA performed well, which in my opinion was a strong balance.

2025-08-25 16:54:26 Current projectory: in following peilingen BBB and JA21 will start eating seats from the CDA, GL/PvdA and PVV race to first yet in the end many people will silently vote for GL/PvdA because they hate the PVV too much to let it become the biggest again.

2025-08-25 17:00:15 And then we get Timmerfrans or Dick Schoof as new premier, why Dickie you might ask? Well, coalition building is going to be hard, other parties might not accept Timmerfrans, but GL/PvdA isn't going to accept a politician from another party either, and Dickie already knows the way by now.

2025-08-25 17:21:35 And we all know how much Carolien can eat.

2025-08-25 19:40:05 I agree with the CDA on the Hypotheekrenteaftrek, but the problem is that parties and voters on the Right are being fake and gay about it by not acknowledging the fact that it's the main cause for the current state of the housing market and that it needs to go, but most people who flocked to the CDA in recent months came from the Right, thus they're also fake and gay about it and thus they will flock to BBB especially because they're fake and gay about the Hypotheekrenteaftrek as well.

2025-08-26 14:25:59 Think smarter? Look into macroeconomics and you'll learn how destructive the Hypotheekrenteaftrek is for the current housing market, housing prices will crash without it.

2025-08-26 14:27:23 Mass immigration is a main problem with many issues, but it's not the main problem when it comes to the state of the housing market.

2025-08-26 17:59:33 I didn't even remember that I had some shares, do nothing, win, GG.

2025-08-26 19:43:49 Promoting home ownership to people who wouldn't be able to buy homes with their jobs if it wasn't subsidized for decades is how you inflate prices to extremely unhealthy levels, just a quick summary for comparison: Huizenbezit in Europa / Albanie: 96% - Roemenie 95,6% - Slowakije: 93,6% versus Duitsland: 47,6% - Oostenrijk: 54,3% - Zwitserland: 42%

2025-08-26 19:45:41 Getting rid of the Hypotheekrenteaftrek is no short term solution, it is the solution, I'd rather be Switzerland than Albania.

2025-08-31 21:27:04 Benri Hontenbal

2025-09-01 21:31:17 Well, a Yes holder selling 8k would get the price of Dembele back to about 60 cent currently, not much liquidity.

2025-09-05 16:38:57 For the rest of the weekend it needs to do on par with Conjuring 2 inflation adjusted BO per theater to get over 67.

2025-09-05 16:58:44 Horror is less frontloaded than perceived when I look at the data, but it's a prequel which do tend to have higher share of previews.

2025-09-05 21:07:01 US recession is at 8%, negative growth 2025 9%, but for a recession to officially qualify as a recession you need two cummulative quarters with negative growth, yet this one is at 5%.

2025-09-06 15:53:32 Maurice ''Market Maker'' de Hond

2025-09-07 21:46:00 The Hypotheekrenteaftrek question is going to shatter and divide the complete ''Centre Right''.

2025-09-07 21:49:51 17D Chess Timmerfrans and 3D Chess Wilders are fiercily rubbing their hands right now.

2025-09-08 04:57:29 But Bontenbal isn't Rutte, the CDA is obviously worried for the moment that he has to enter the national stage because most people simply don't know him yet.

2025-09-08 05:02:34 The VVD going all-in against the CDA on the Hypotheekrenteaftrek is quite something, I don't think that most current wannabe CDA voters weren't aware off the CDA's stance on it yet, and many came from the VVD, a big share of the (lower) middle class masses (they think more of themselves though) are going to chimp out about this badly, JA21, BBB and the PVV will follow the VVD on this soon, it's the first smart strategical move from the VVD, but it's going to come at a price for the complete Centre Right.

2025-09-08 05:08:49 The question is not if, but when all of those parties will start stating that a vote on Bontenbal is a vote on Timmerfrans.

2025-09-10 14:26:59 Thus far the only election this year where the Right has won was Poland, and that was only with a small margin, the Battle of the Hypotheekrenteaftrek effects haven't shown up in any polls yet, the only party of the top 4 for who it's natural to get rid of it is the GL/PvdA, so they're sure that they won't be affected negatively by it.

2025-09-10 14:37:52 This is one of the very few things where it doesn't matter that people don't like her, people and their wallets, most people literally don't understand the Hypotheekrenteaftrek, they've an image in their head that they want or need it.

2025-09-10 19:08:37 A lot of new accounts suddenly buying Yamal, interesting.

2025-09-11 20:23:59 I don't think that it will impact the CDA negatively either.

2025-09-15 03:01:13 Of course he's gay, but UMA is gay too.

2025-09-16 04:28:22 ''Henlo frens''

2025-09-20 20:40:53 ElsFed

2025-09-20 20:46:22 And it will have an effect, Timmerfrans and miss purple bikini will go up.

2025-09-20 21:31:21 Every day he comes out of his bed to teach random strangers new stuff, that's dedication, but for real though, it's ''ElsFed'', this was the intention from the start and they will try to use it as a Dutch ''J6'''.

2025-09-21 19:28:20 Yamal's grandma is flying to Paris to end the hallucinations of the Dembelcels once and for all, and you're blackpilling?

2025-09-21 20:20:34 Vinicius versus Rodri 2025 Edition

2025-09-21 22:20:57 People who're very sure that Dembele is going to win should just buy Yes for him, it's much cheaper than yesterday now, just a quick profit, right?

2025-09-21 23:06:06 Last year the whole Real Madrid team didn't board the plane in the morning because they were informed that Vinicius wasn't going to win, now Yamal's whole family has been flown in.

2025-09-21 23:12:34 I don't think anything of the PSG game because they simply have to play.

2025-09-22 15:09:28 During the live show they do a countdown from 30 to 1, last year the players that ended up in the top 10 or 5 all surged, Bellingham even went to like 6 or 7% and there was a lot less real volume back then.

2025-09-22 20:04:58 It's called de-risking and taking profits.

2025-09-23 03:37:43 Too soon.

2025-09-23 03:39:58 But if you're add it anyway then add place 2, 3 and 4 plus top 3, 5 and 10 too.

2025-09-23 20:44:08 People always be waiting for the next peiling instead of anticipating the possible effects of ''X'' and ''Y''.

2025-09-24 16:53:29 Kenny went all-in on Zelensky wearing a suit.

2025-09-24 16:57:38 To any poll, not just that one, peiling means poll in Dutch.

2025-09-24 19:10:57 ''Oh my God, he killed Kenny with a dildo to win his Broncos bet on Polymarket.''

2025-09-25 02:29:57 Israel will take out Kenny for sure.

2025-09-25 02:34:55 Oh well, at least Polymarket and Tylenol No hit, GG.

2025-09-30 16:09:52 There's always some canon event that will shake everything up, we might even get multiple canon events seeing how volatile and unstable everything is right now, let alone the polling inaccuracy getting bigger and bigger with each passing election.

2025-10-01 03:15:06 Bibi's gonna throw a Shekel for a goy for sure.

2025-10-01 04:19:19 Buy more PVV, but don't forget to check the polls of 4 weeks before the elections of the past several elections before you do that, smart-ass negative PNL user.

2025-10-01 04:29:35 I'm afraid I'm much further to the Right than you and most people can comprehend, I don't even believe that people should be voting, but anyway, it's not a magical thing, it happens almost every election.

2025-10-01 20:34:56 There's always an endgame race, and the question is will it be a 3-way race between the Left - Right - Far Right or a 4-way race between the Left - Centre - Right - Far Right, for the CDA to perform well it needs to be a 4-way, it can't compete to win the ''Right'' due to several current election stances, D66 is the only party that theoretically can be the end game competitor for 2, namely the Left and the Centre, JA21 could've been an end game competitor for 2 too, but Eerdmans saying that he wants to work with D66 has made that scenario pretty impossible, so I'm fully expecting a VVD resurgence to be the contender for the Right.

2025-10-02 04:46:04 Take out a second mortgage and buy more PVV.

2025-10-02 21:56:06 Just buy more Yes, pauper.

2025-10-02 22:53:37 Morgen komt market maker Maurice vast weer langs om de week af te sluiten.

2025-10-02 23:00:50 [link removed]

2025-10-03 16:39:00 And she will be invited for any possible debate, and people love buying VVD here too, any slight poll uptick will lead to big gains here.

2025-10-03 16:41:15 Confirmed new poll.

2025-10-03 16:47:50 Reverse that question because he needs to be extremely positive about the PVV to maintain this price.

2025-10-03 19:27:27 You basically have a position for a 85% odd for a PVV or GL/PvdA win, which is too high in my opinion, CDA/VVD/D66 combined is more than 15%, the reason why people are buying up PVV so high is basically that they had a blow-out last election, so people are expecting that again, but that won't happen because of 2 reasons, reason 1 is polling methodologies have been adjusted for that by now and the societal taboo of saying that you're gonna vote PVV has been lifted by that victory, so they're much easier to poll now and the likelyhood of a blow-out should be sought at other parties now.

2025-10-04 20:53:56 Bontenbal is peaking too early, everyone on the Right will start dunking on him in the tv debates by saying that he's with Timmerfrans on immigration, he's going to make groceries more expensive with a new tax and that he's bad for home owners due to his stances on the Hypotheekrenteaftrek, and I don't think he's going to handle it well, in the first tv debate the VVD will profit most from this because Eerdmans hasn't been invited to the party.

2025-10-04 20:58:22 I'm not active on socials, I just poast here whenever I feel like.

2025-10-04 21:10:32 GL/PvdA, D66 and CDA voters are sort of converging on many issues, so if Bontenbal peaks too early and Timmerfrans doesn't improve then we might even see a supercharged D66 with 30 seats or more, but people aren't mentally ready for this conversation and me neither.

2025-10-06 23:02:27 GL/PvdA Yes and PVV No are basically equal, I would simply sell PVV Yes and take that profit out.

2025-10-07 20:25:06 Only expected value and data, if I would buy on principles I would buy FvD or SGP.

2025-10-08 20:56:10 80%+ still undecided and floating, it's going to be chaos for sure.

2025-10-11 20:29:51 Everybody gangsta until JA21, VVD or FvD starts to perform well during the tv campaigns (which hasn't started yet) without Wilders and everything changes in an instant.

2025-10-12 05:49:46 Bugger off, eternal midwit pauper.

2025-10-12 05:54:28 These midwits just can't accept the fact that they don't know, nobody knows, all options are still on the table, looking forward to the chaos.

2025-10-12 05:56:48 Je weet helemaal niets.

2025-10-12 21:09:44 The VVD about to make a comeback? Damn, if only I had known.

2025-10-12 21:17:21 Did anyone watch the debate? Insanity, Timmerfrans literally punched Rob knock-out, Bontenbal was drunk and threw up, Dilan started making out with the presentatrice right in front of Fons and they cucked him hard, and Wilders just streamed Mario Kart through the live connection and was only present to promote his Twitch gaming channel, it's a disgrace what Dutch politics has become.

2025-10-13 14:54:12 France is at 13% for the WC, but Mbappe is 31% here, something doesn't add up, doesn't it?

2025-10-13 14:58:03 Where's San Marino?

2025-10-14 13:18:22 One thing became clear, Wilders isn't going to win if he doesn't restart his campaign activities soon.

2025-10-14 13:21:39 The media will start inviting Eerdmans even harder for sure.

2025-10-14 16:49:00 He already lost 3 at Verian while the effects of the start of the campaigns and the debate hasn't even been fully incorporated, there's some delay, and Eerdmans wasn't even there but he will be invited at many places, JA21 won't win, but they will start taking a lot of seats from the PVV soon if Wilders doesn't show his face anywhere.

2025-10-14 21:00:25 You have very few shares for someone who presumes to know it all.

2025-10-14 21:02:49 Can't even like this post, thanks Polymarket UI.

2025-10-14 21:06:49 The Timmerfrans and Jette busses have left the station and people will only acknowledge their trajectory when they're about to get hit.

2025-10-14 21:11:53 The national terrorist prevention safety coordinator already publicly said that it's safe enough for Wilders to resume activities, but he's refusing, which is literally the turning point of this election.

2025-10-15 05:47:47 Even the weather matters, if it rains D66, VVD and the CDA will get a small boost, and this folks, is why you can't blindly bet on the PVV, Dutch politics is chaos.

2025-10-15 16:33:21 The rumours are saying that tomorrow Ipsos poll will have the same patterns as yesterday's Verian poll, but stronger for Rob, and historically D66 can perform extremely well in the extra time.

2025-10-15 19:35:39 Best I can do is 40%.

2025-10-15 20:41:21 What happens when there are 2 options with 3 parties that both include 3 out of 4 coalition parties?

2025-10-15 20:42:12 Nvm.

2025-10-15 20:44:38 Wondering why the most likely 4-way coalition wasn't included as an option though.

2025-10-15 21:52:31 And Friday late also.

2025-10-16 21:06:22 I'm guessing that Maurice will have PVV, GL/PvdA and CDA very close to eachother, chaos ensured.

2025-10-16 21:27:24 GL/PVDA and CDA being reversed between Verian and Ipsos and the odds jumping on the basis of which updated last is sort of funny.

2025-10-16 21:57:44 People don't see it yet so market maker Maurice will be tasked to bring the chaos upon the people directly.

2025-10-17 04:37:19 Everybody still gangstah? New poll around circa 23:00, see you then.

2025-10-17 04:58:02 I'm not a big fan of D66, to put it lightly, but I have to admit that their campaign is crafted extremely skillfull.

2025-10-17 12:31:14 Why is the difference between Benri and Timmerfrans so big? Is it because of what Dilan said? That she's excluding Timmerfrans? I guess people don't understand that she will take a step back after the elections and therefor her claims will be no longer valid.

2025-10-17 15:15:45 The Ipsos data literally showed that they're both losing equally, which is logical since D66 is presenting itself as the Centre, just like CDA is, hence CDA will lose equally if not more over the longer term.

2025-10-17 15:41:08 Because they're on a rotation for tv programming.

2025-10-17 15:46:32 It seems that people think that Rob's Blitzkrieg will hurt GL/PvdA more than the CDA, but the Ipsos data literally showed that they're both losing equally, which is not weird since D66 presents itself as a Centre party, just like the CDA, for the final run GL/PvdA will start claiming that they're the only true ''Leftist'' option and that will work.

2025-10-17 21:42:19 It's going to be fun, that's a lock.

2025-10-17 22:22:43 The VVD will now start to present itself als the ''enige Rechtse geluid'' that has a chance to get into the coalition and stop Timmerfrans and his ideas, the VVD will win seats from the PVV, JA21 and CDA and it will also mobilize the Left behind GL/PvdA as they start taking the opposite position of the VVD.

2025-10-18 15:34:29 Source? A cryptic dream, my prediction as of now: PVV, CDA, GL/PvdA, D66 and VVD will all end up somewhere between 26-22 and JA21 will fall below 10.

2025-10-18 15:40:27 Party loyalty is almost non-existent, which is why everything is still in the cards.

2025-10-18 15:42:55 Another factor people don't care to think about is that PVV voters aren't the most frequent voters, and they're almost all convinced that the polls are fake and that the PVV will win anyway, hence PVV voter turnout will underperform.

2025-10-18 16:53:24 Historically they've underperformed almost every time when they were expected to win big by the polls, last time was an anomaly, the polls weren't even expecting them to win either, thus historically the relation has been vice versa, laziness kicks in when they expect to win, simple as.

2025-10-18 18:03:16 Forget what I said about JA21 going under 10, Wilders is skipping tomorrow's tv debate yet again and Eerdmans is invited, I'm starting to wonder if Wilders even wants to win.

2025-10-18 19:25:40 Plot twist: gopfan2 is Geert Wilders.

2025-10-18 21:18:21 The markets for the number 2, 3 and 4 will turn into an even greater chaos soon.

2025-10-19 17:16:01 Tonight another national tv debate without Wilders, JA21 is present though, he might be taking a lot of seats from the PVV and if the VVD keeps insisting on opposing Timmerfrans the VVD will too.

2025-10-19 21:22:59 Short recap, Bontenbal came out to state that from now on he identifies himself as a wizard, Timmerfrans went to the toilet and never came back, Eerdmans literally threw Rob out of the window, then Rob had to go to the hospital and Eerdmans was arrested, Jimmy then threathened to seize all the capital and ministeries by force so the cops took him too, and Dilan flashed the nation, absolutely disgusting (timestamp 38:21), and Wilders just streamed Pokemon through the live connection, he catched 2 shiny's though, but anyway, I don't think that I will watch another debate, this is pretty useless.

2025-10-20 04:07:43 I don't have to make anything up, these are my natural thoughts while I'm watching this boring messy and amateurish shit.

2025-10-20 20:33:28 New Verian tomorrow, I'm not expecting Wilder's single appearance on a late night football talking program while staying away from everything else the whole week has done him much good, Timmerfrans however chose the correct angle for attack, D66 and the VVD will be explaining all week that they actually don't really want to prevent people from receiving new cancer treatments, and the media is helping him.

2025-10-20 23:00:44 Yes, the short term trend of the election weeks or even just only the election week itself is most important, the PVV has been on a long term declining trend over this complete year which generally leads to election loss, shame also no longer plays a role, the shame is gone since the election victory.

2025-10-20 23:04:13 So yes, a sudden surge like D66 just before the election is generally a good ticket for a good election result of even an ''unexpected'' victory.

2025-10-21 19:31:24 Yeah, I'm guessing that the VVD and GL/PvdA are going to use their old trick of using eachother as opposite poles to push the massive strategic vote towards eachother, CDA will go in any coalition so they will lose the strategic vote, and the PVV is going to lose a lot to the VVD due to it too, in the end the real question is what coalition people want.

2025-10-21 19:32:20 You have a big mouth for someone with $17 in PnL.

2025-10-21 19:35:12 Over the Left or over the Right, the Centre (especially the CDA) will be there anyway so there's no purpose for the strategic vote there.

2025-10-21 22:05:24 I literally explained it, the notion of voting VVD being the only way to keep Timmerfrans out of the coalition will convey a lot of people in those very last few days, and GL/PvdA will do the same but in reverse, they will claim that the only way to prevent another Rightist coalition is by voting for them, 2-way pillar magnets like they've done before in the past.

2025-10-22 21:26:36 No poll from Ipsos tomorrow, only the SBS debate led by Genee.

2025-10-22 21:28:10 I'm 100% sure that he will be extremely objective.

2025-10-23 20:36:25 Probably because it would be outdated right away because the SBS debate wouldn't be included.

2025-10-23 20:40:07 A quadruple from 5 still means only 20 seats, and the GL/PvdA is down (a little bit) there because the SP is up bigly, number 1 and 2 from the SP are from Groningen en the SP is also very active regarding the earthquake damage there.

2025-10-23 21:30:55 ''Bontenbal volgens publiek nipt beste in debat op SBS6, maar Timmermans verrast'' - [link removed]

2025-10-23 21:34:56 Hoewel het debat soms fel was, viel het veel kijkers juist op dat Bontenbal rustig bleef en helder sprak. Ook op inhoud scoorde Bontenbal het hoogst, met 58 procent van de kijkers die hem inhoudelijk sterk vond. Op enige afstand daarachter volgden GL-PvdA-leider Frans Timmermans (45 procent), VVD-lijsttrekker Yesilgoz (44 procent) en PVV-leider Wilders (44 procent). Timmermans beter dan verwacht Toch zat de grootste verrassing niet bij hem, maar bij Frans Timmermans. Gekeken naar het aantal mensen die hem boven minus beneden verwachting vond scoren, had hij een positieve uitslag van +6 procentpunt. Dilan Yesilgoz wist eveneens te verrassen met +5 procentpunt. Geert Wilders, voor wie dit het eerste grote televisiedebat was deze verkiezingen, wist minder indruk te maken dan velen verwachtten. Hij eindigde qua presentatie en inhoud dicht bij de top, maar deed het wel fors minder goed dan mensen van tevoren hadden gedacht: -16 procentpunt.

2025-10-24 16:07:29 Wilders is skipping Nieuwsuur and AD, last night's debate was the debate with the most viewers and he was the biggest underperformer in relation to initial expectations, Timmerfrans and Dilan both outperformed the initial expectations.

2025-10-24 16:10:51 He won last elections largely due to performing well in this specific debate, let's see the conclusions of Maurice tonight.

2025-10-25 04:06:01 I'm back, I was blocked from commenting, I guess my comments were too hot to handle for some people.

2025-10-25 04:10:25 Maximum happening.

2025-10-25 04:15:05 It's a TimeTrebbeller's World.

2025-10-25 14:06:07 I'm not in the business of making alts, typical pauper behavioral thinking.

2025-10-25 15:42:34 Ohoh.

2025-10-25 16:31:56 The prospect of coalition Timmerfrans and Jetten will move even more PVV'ers towards the VVD.

2025-10-25 16:34:08 ''Het eerlijke verhaal hier is dat het waarschijnlijk om eigen Nederlandse retards gaat.''

2025-10-25 16:47:30 Also, Wilders has cancelled pretty much all his further activities, so his campaign is already pretty much over as well.

2025-10-25 20:14:57 Taking into account tactical voting patterns from left to right: Timmerfrans - Dilan - Jetten / Bontenbal

2025-10-25 21:33:42 5, yet people keep buying 1 of those for 75% and higher.

2025-10-26 15:03:54 All will release a final poll on Tuesday I believe.

2025-10-26 15:05:49 The markets for the 2nd, 3th and 4th place are even funnier, CDA was like 60% 2nd a few days ago and now 13%, and the PVV is here at 76% but only 10% for 2nd, swinging galore.

2025-10-26 15:11:12 And Bontenbal premier is at 39%, but CDA 1st plus 2nd barely touches 20% together.

2025-10-26 15:38:42 PVV, GL/PvdA, VVD and D66 within a margin of 3 or 4 from eachother with GL/PvdA as most likely winner, CDA will fall just below 20.

2025-10-26 19:01:55 Yeah, me too, hoping for some extra liquidity in the last few days though, since I'm still expecting a few flips due to all the different pollsters dropping their final polls.

2025-10-26 19:05:08 Tactical voting from the Left, largest secure core base and extreme help from the media.

2025-10-26 20:22:13 The media literally didn't invite D66 to most of the big debates while they could've based on the polls.

2025-10-26 20:27:01 The chat is retarded, literally almost every person who works in the media votes for either GL/PvdA or D66, and apart from that some do vote VVD.

2025-10-26 20:34:13 It's possible, but I have them as 4 and 5.

2025-10-27 14:38:11 A seat lost by the PVV doesn't get divided into 4, 75% of it goes directly into the VVD, the weather forecast isn't good for the PVV either, the base is notorious for not showing up in bad weather.

2025-10-27 19:10:24 Wilders just had to apologize to Timmerfrans (GL/PvdA) live on television.

2025-10-27 19:12:52 Some people who are on the PVV list got caught running a fake GL/PvdA Facebook group.

2025-10-27 20:14:21 What would happen to the orderbooks if the 3 different polls show 3 different winners? I guess that would be a bit of a mess, right?

2025-10-27 23:46:26 Ik gebruik het enkel voor noodgevallen, zoals het inschakelen van de Polymarket helpdesk als er weer eens wat is.

2025-10-27 23:53:07 People who don't think that 75% of the PVV'ers who switch parties will actually go to the VVD are missing zeh point, it's not about who's closer to the PVV in an ideological sense, it's about opposing Timmerfrans through the VVD as a tactical vote, there's no value in JA21 for that purpose, and neither in the CDA.

2025-10-28 15:23:29 Hehheheheh.

2025-10-28 15:29:42 To complete the chaos I'm expecting a big VVD tonight in Maurice's poll.

2025-10-28 16:04:26 Everyone still gangster?

2025-10-28 16:31:13 Yeah, but what if Maurice's poll shows a different trendline? Which trendline are you going to follow? Choose wisely.

2025-10-28 17:03:58 He's literally just a harmless boomer.

2025-10-28 17:05:02 Yeah, I'm thinking the same.

2025-10-28 17:39:41 Yeah, Maurice would have to backtrack on his own VVD trendline while being semi pro-VVD himself, let alone the real tactical vote shift from the PVV to stop Jetten and Timmerfrans.

2025-10-28 17:44:44 Not a good day for the PVVcels, also in terms of ideology, people in general but even it's own voters don't understand it's ideology, it's not even a real nationalist party, it's just a vehicle of canalization for Israel First and is directly led by the Mossad, real nationalists vote FvD, SGP and maybe JA21.

2025-10-28 17:47:00 Yeah.

2025-10-28 20:17:24 Don't forget about the bad weather tomorrow, expecting a low turnout, which is bad news for the PVVcels.

2025-10-28 21:27:40 VVD unbelievers in shambles.

2025-10-28 21:29:13 In the end, stable genius Timmerfrans (GL/PvdA) will win though.

2025-10-28 22:22:18 So, all the polls are done now, next poll is the exit poll, which very likely won't be correct either, fun ensues.

2025-10-28 23:02:59 Rob is high on coke.

2025-10-29 05:56:56 Rob heeft de nacht doorgehaald en staat nu met een doorgesnoven hoofd tegen de dichte deuren van zijn lokale stemlokaal te schoppen, de politie is al gebeld, dit worden weer genante beelden op het journaal.

2025-10-29 15:11:37 Yeah, this is too much of a coinflip, when the actual counting starts it will be interesting again.

2025-10-29 17:12:24 In general, city, small rich and progressive counties seem to have a relatively well turnout compared to the rest, this is saying GL/PvdA, VVD or D66.

2025-10-29 20:27:10 Mixed results over the complete board, sort of neutral, het is wat het is.

2025-10-29 22:23:13 We got rugged, they told us the vote count would be faster than ever before.

2025-10-29 23:15:50 Hmm.

2025-10-30 00:35:08 Most boring election night ever recorded in human history.

2025-10-30 00:57:06 Rob is currently calling Wilders to say ''het kan niet meer''.

2025-10-30 03:11:28 I'm still awake and I've drank too much to look at this stupid rules, anyway, thx for buying my VVD's off of me (with profit).

2025-10-31 19:37:42 I don't believe that the PVV has any chance left, but I do expect some unrest and shenanigans until the Kiesraad makes it definitive, not only domestic, especially when the so-called ''rig'' stories catch international attention, all the signs are there.

2025-11-06 21:51:05 I'm thinking that they're going for the ''brede'' coalition first, ultimately D66, CDA and GL/PvdA prefer this, the VVD currently just thinks that it has the cards, and within the VVD there's a lot of opposition to Yesilgoz and her election promises, the question is if there's going to be a compromise to the VVD in the form of also taking in JA21, so that people can no longer classifiy it as a ''Leftist'' coalition, and if the VVD doesn't go along with that we might be lookin' at a minority coalition.

2025-11-07 17:23:52 Be gone heathens!

2025-11-07 17:50:05 China invading Taiwan before the end of 2026 is at 16%, yet this one is below the settlement price.

2025-11-07 21:52:32 So while receiving a few percent APY for even making the bet I can bet totally riskfree on whether China invades Taiwan and for only a few percent risk I can bet on Rihanna releasing a new album before the end of July 2026 while the odds for release in 2025 are 38%, though that orderbook is very thin, nevertheless, all in all this bet is pretty crazy.

2025-11-16 01:57:09 I just identified Chile on the world map, so now it's time to trade it's politics.

2025-11-16 02:08:49 The hardest thing about Chilean politics I found thus far is all the Spanish.

2025-11-16 03:35:34 I expected more German because of his name.

2025-11-19 22:59:37 The first part of Wicked came out two hundred years ago in Polymarket years.

2025-11-19 23:05:16 And it's been 70 Polymarket years since my boi Betwick and me have been on the same side in a movie market bet, time flies when you're constantly going bankrupt.

2025-11-20 17:36:26 I was a little bit scared to enter the market when I saw the current state of Ariane and the black woman.

2025-11-20 17:56:23 Polymarket volume numbers don't match the opening weekend number projections either, big openings usually have big volume.

2025-11-21 22:27:00 The EA versus Thursday pointed towards frontload, and if Deadline's Friday number holds it would point towards more frontload when compared to Thursday.

2025-11-23 06:15:40 The next Wicked title just leaked, it's ''Wicked: For Flippening''.

2025-11-24 21:52:34 This is either going to 5B or back down under 3B, but Coinbase will definitely be aiming for the future claim that it's first ICO ''did very well''.

2025-11-26 00:02:20 Oh no, another competative movie battle.

2025-11-26 18:29:28 What if Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok makes the biggest political comeback ever recorded?

2025-11-28 23:55:01 My personal movie quant (Damien Leone) is saying that Deadline's Friday estimation points towards 140M, solely based on such a Friday that is, and that the already completed days point towards 156M, let's see, because he also seems drunk.

2025-11-29 19:12:23 It appears that the flip is in fact in the room with us.

2025-11-30 22:26:47 Yeah, last year it got revised higher, but that's not a guarantee, and there also wasn't like a total snow storm going on.

2025-12-08 20:54:54 Maybe yes, maybe no, rekeningrijden, spreidingswet, Hypotheekrenteaftrek and the VVD? D66 and the CDA might be willing to make compromises on those things if the VVD is willing to make compromises on certain other area's.

2025-12-15 18:00:15 Shiiieet, Betwick is on my side again, a total loss is now imminent.

2025-12-15 18:11:51 Are the ''insiders'' in the room with us right now?

2025-12-15 21:44:30 ''We definitely recommend launching just before NYE so that our most liquid US customers will have to pay maximum tax over the launch pump #taxmaxxing, we also recommend it because the Lighter discourse will definitely not be forever tainted by ''insider'' trading profits on various prediction markets.'' - Some top tier internal Coinbase think tank advice probably

2025-12-16 17:29:04 70M - 500M - 1000M, wouldn't it make a little bit of sense to add some brackets in between of these gigantic steps? Maybe 150M, 300M and 700M?

2025-12-16 17:46:32 ''- On whether tokenomics will be published before TGE: he said he can’t share many details about TGE yet, but there should be an announcement within the next few weeks that covers this'' - [link removed]

2025-12-16 18:21:16 Also important to consider is that Russian holidays are in January, they tend to mix that up.

2025-12-16 20:39:35 You want to know my alpha? My alpha are the memories of last year's Sonic 3 bet, several people are still battling PTSD every single day due to that weekend, which happens to be the same calender weekend as the upcoming weekend.

2025-12-16 21:01:10 Not really, I don't copytrade at all even. But Sonic was a race to the bottom, people started at the top and it kept swinging lower each day.

2025-12-17 04:36:55 Job's not finished

2025-12-17 16:22:58 Tokenomics after launch? Is this some revolutionary tech?

2025-12-17 18:03:39 A serious L1 needs people around the world to know about the existence of it's TGE, such protocols probably announce the TGE about 1 month in advance on average, yet the silence remains here.

2025-12-17 18:09:21 They probably aimed for the end of December for a very long time, but then came the bear market.

2025-12-17 19:25:25 And even if they somehow decide to launch it before the end of the year anyway then there's still this problem of the current market conditions, holidays and all of those damn airdrop farmers, US liquidity and from many other countries won't touch it in the first days to prevent taxes and being dumped on by retarded and broke farmors.

2025-12-17 20:14:26 It's so over that Polymarket has decided to slash the balance of my portfolio pre-emptively.

2025-12-17 22:24:38 What if when the announcement of the White House starts the camera slowly starts zooming in on Vlad who's sitting in the big chair of the Oval Office, totally locked in and ready to make the big announcement about the upcoming TGE, would be pretty big, huh?

2025-12-17 22:26:09 If it's just Trump who starts talking heavy shit about Venezuela all odds for a TGE in 2025 will drop to zero though.

2025-12-17 23:14:53 Don't fade the FIFA and Infantino with another very important statement.

2025-12-18 06:06:57 Saar, the whales are on the other end of the equation.

2025-12-18 06:08:39 I'm at the cinema right now but there's nobody there, even the lights aren't on, what's going on?

2025-12-18 06:20:42 Ahh, shiieet, I'm drunk and it's just past 7AM, nevermind.

2025-12-18 15:12:20 They just might already be out there manipulating the weather to create massive blizzard storms to keep the kids out of the theaters.

2025-12-18 15:56:10 Why would they rush the TGE even? Because the expectations of the ''community'' and broke airdrop farmers? They want the attention of serious liquidity, thus both groups are irrelevant.

2025-12-18 16:12:23 According to Deadline insiders there are reports of a man with a beard, a small penguin and some anime character who're driving around in a mini-van to place fake ''15+'' and ''18+'' signs at theater entrances to scare off the parents with kids.

2025-12-18 17:32:40 Next to Sonic 3 there was also Mufasa, a bad opening weekend but relatively very good sales during the holidays afterwards, it's just that time of the year.

2025-12-18 17:41:26 ''Yeah, let's launch this new serious L1 in a last minute rush during the holidays, just before NYE and during the worst possible market conditions in years because our ''community'' and airdrop farmers expect us to do so based on a very vague promise that was made months ago.''

2025-12-18 18:02:36 u wot m8

2025-12-18 20:18:29 I'm gonna be honest here, I've totally hated Avatar since the first one came out, the based Smurfs are the number one franchise of the blue creatures department.

2025-12-18 22:53:58 ''Thanks for the detailed report! We have made a lot of improvements since 10/10 and will post a few stats around that, but there is still a lot of work to do. There is definitely a “perfect storm” scenario where high volatility leads to volume and strain on the system'' - [link removed]

2025-12-18 22:55:33 He posted this only 2 days ago, so yeah, I guess they're definitely not ready yet.

2025-12-18 23:30:05 ''It's not about the money, it's about sending a message.'' - Betwick

2025-12-19 05:50:19 The first transaction is more than 50 days old, so it took Coinbase more than 40 days to add it to the roadmap, but now we're supposed to believe that the TGE will happen within 9 a 10 days after the first test transaction during the most difficult market condition in years right in between every holiday imaginable while the average TGE of such size get's announced about 4 weeks in advance on average?

2025-12-19 06:01:43 Let alone that the last rounds of sales brought up about 65M at a value of 1,5B FVD, which took place in a total bull market, the current market is a total bear market, thus a current TGE might actually go below 500M within 24 hours.

2025-12-19 06:03:10 I don't think so, but let's take the 2 weeks, within 2 weeks it's already 2026.

2025-12-19 06:09:18 I'm never going to recover from this, y'all were right, Betwick has a bad influence on my PNL.

2025-12-19 14:45:35 It's Friday, last working day of the week, then you get the weekend, so when today has passed there's literally barely more than a week left between now and the 29th and that time includes Christmas and 4 days of weekend.

2025-12-19 14:50:07 I guess it would be totally acceptable for a livestreaming meth dev on pumpfun to do his TGE under such conditions but we aren't on pumpfun.

2025-12-19 18:06:17 There are reports of Smurfs doing heists on cash registers of theaters, supposedly their aim is to become the number one blue creatures franchise.

2025-12-19 18:12:11 wen tge saar

2025-12-19 21:45:59 So, today has pretty much gone by, and now we're welcoming the weekend. My theory is that they will do it after the Chinese new year, everybody's back at the markets by then and of course they're hoping for better market conditions by then.

2025-12-19 21:53:08 They actually do continue? Damn, total NO victory incoming.

2025-12-19 21:57:20 Checked, and it's in fact going to continue, GG.

2025-12-19 22:05:17 ''Lighter points got distributed again, and Season 2 did NOT end like people expected And This most likely means that the airdrop will be delayed until 2026. Why? Because there are only 11 days left, and the airdrop is supposedly meant to happen one or two weeks after the points distribution ends'' - [link removed] GG

2025-12-19 22:40:32 Just got back from the cinema, there was nobody there except some weird and childish looking millenial guy, he was probably there out of nostalgia, very sad vibes overall, I didn't buy a ticket, I just chucked a few beers at the bar and then I drove home with the soundtrack of Drive (2011) in the background.

2025-12-19 23:33:24 You just exposed yourself as the weird and childish looking millenial guy to the complete internet.

2025-12-20 05:06:45 Took my profits at 90M and now I'm officially just another lame hedgooor, sry

2025-12-20 06:50:24 u wot m8

2025-12-20 16:47:16 The amount of circulating points and the high values people expect to gain from it alone will tank a launch during the holidays, because there needs to be liquidity to absolve it and there's also the tax issue.

2025-12-20 16:50:00 And the points didn't even end yet, and there's also no tokenomics, who's going to buy a token without tokenomics?

2025-12-20 18:13:00 I'm starting to think that they might drop the meme token around Christmas to keep all the fuzz alive though, which won't count for this market.

2025-12-20 18:39:38 The problem with this market is that they might just launch the meme coin, hence the FDV market is a lot safer.

2025-12-20 22:13:48 Yeah, well, they aren't really keeping their promises about anything.

2025-12-20 22:18:34 Just came back from my job at McDonald's, today we had 3 guys coming asking for work, and they all looked suspiciously much as guys who would bet on box office totals, interesting.

2025-12-21 14:50:04 That form doesn't even confirm the end of points by that date, and if it does end on that date they will then only be able to start the allocation process which they themselves said would take place about 1 or 2 weeks before the TGE, and no TGE date yet either.

2025-12-21 16:53:22 Also, from a marketing point of view, launching on a very unregular and illiquid date just before NYE which was supposedly known by insiders on Polymarket in advance is very bad marketing for serious liquidity.

2025-12-21 16:54:28 Not launching would be their proof that there were no insidious insiders.

2025-12-21 17:17:31 Also, people can literally ask Grok how long it takes on average for more serious L2 projects to go from snapshot date to airdrop and TGE, which on average takes several weeks to months.

2025-12-21 18:33:46 Okay guys, I'm ready for my night shift of flipping some burgers at McDonald's, they call me the Burger King, let's see how many new applicants there will be today.

2025-12-21 23:40:36 ''Y'all got some more of those tokenomics''

2025-12-22 05:48:30 Lightriots in control.

2025-12-22 07:27:21 Already can't wait until next week's box office bet.

2025-12-22 14:42:01 Even if they still manage to launch the liquidity to pump simply isn't there due to holidays and tax, instead there will be huge selling pressure from the broke farmers, last round they sold for about 65 million at 1.5B FDV, and that was during a full-on bull market.

2025-12-22 14:45:21 They simply would be thieves of their own wallet to launch before NYE, there's simply no reason for them to do that, let alone that orchestrating a launch with exchanges during these days is quite impossible.

2025-12-22 15:13:28 And when all these bets expire they can say ''See, there were never any insiders, if we were corrupt we would've bought all the No's, instead Yes stayed high for a very long time, we're all transparant and fair'', all while probably slowly accumlating No btw.

2025-12-22 18:09:40 [link removed] - So, they're still working on things, does this sound like a TGE within 7 days?

2025-12-22 20:24:29 Sir, your PNL is 30 USD and the CEO is currently literally doing everything including trying to start fights on X except announcing a TGE within a week or so.

2025-12-22 23:52:18 Tonight we had more people asking for work than we had customers at McDonald's.

2025-12-23 18:34:47 Binance listing $Litentry which is using $LIT and even the same logo is a hurdle, dumb liquidity will be poored into that, that alone is a reason to not launch in a hurry in the middle of a low liquidity bear market holiday season.

2025-12-23 20:02:24 [link removed] - At least he's very aware off the fact that volume (thus liquidity) is not great during these days.

2025-12-23 20:03:26 ''The points program hasn’t ended. Volatility is generally lower around the holidays and this affects volume and OI as well.''

2025-12-23 21:06:34 Schooftriots in control.

2025-12-24 00:11:47 Just book the call and put the fries in the bag bro.

2025-12-24 00:14:29 ''Top Lighter Points holders are getting invited to a call with the team from January 1 to January 6 You can apply if you have 1,000+ points. Each slot is about 15 minutes.'' - [link removed]

2025-12-24 16:46:13 [link removed] - Let's see.

2025-12-24 19:25:04 From their perspective they need to retain the current attention, if they drop the TGE on the 29th all of the attention and volume will drop like a rock immediatly because the period around NYE usually brings extremely thin volume.

2025-12-24 20:25:08 Just buy more Yes, take out a second mortgage if you have to.

2025-12-25 14:37:39 Sir, it's Christmas Day, there's basically not one single regular working day between now and the 29th, even if he would announce a TGE for the 29th there will be nobody with serious money who will know that the TGE exists, the only people who will then know that it exists are farmors who will only provide about a billion USD in selling pressure through their points.

2025-12-25 20:34:48 What's happening to the odds of the 29th on the other bet? Aren't insiders supposed to be inside? Didn't they promise the 29th about 2000 years ago?

2025-12-25 20:40:00 Also, Christmas Day in Europe will end in a few hours and Asia already left Christmas Day, so how I'm supposed to believe that the Santa discourse was anything more than just a meme for attention farming without having to spend points?

2025-12-26 15:31:49 Aren't the video calls for 1k+ pointers (which is literally announced as ''ahead of TGE'') bookable until the 6th of January? In my opinion this is to mittigate selling pressure from points, meaning the calls have a financial incentive.

2025-12-26 15:35:36 Meaning they understand there's too much selling pressure if they launch it before NYE, let's say they assume 80 USD per point, then every call is intended to reduce 80k USD selling pressure at minimum.

2025-12-26 17:41:56 Tomorrow, almost midnight European time Vlad will be doing an AMA on some crypto podcast it seems, I'm expecting him to say ''definitely have some big announcements in the coming week or weeks, stay tuned''.

2025-12-26 18:02:14 Who needs points and airdrop farmers if you can simply use Polymarket as a marketing soap opera?

2025-12-26 18:03:35 The era of airdrop farmers is officially over.

2025-12-26 22:26:35 The day literally has basically passed and all the predictions about checkers, announcements after network update, tokenomics and whatever else didn't come true, so announcement at a late Saturday evening podcast is now the next goalpost then?

2025-12-27 16:19:56 Will it even be a governance token?

2025-12-27 20:48:17 Sir, if you airdrop 250 million units right into the lapse of airdrop farmers, VC's and whoever else in this market without proper announcement it will go below 100 million within 1 day, you can't do that.

2025-12-27 20:55:26 I think there's a good chance that he will announce ''Liger'', which is the meme token, for 2025 during the AMA though, but that token doesn't classify for this market.

2025-12-27 23:06:49 It was a great AMA.

2025-12-27 23:15:58 First question was about when the token is coming, and he basically didn't answer it.

2025-12-28 00:12:16 I scored 100% on the Vlad mention markets.

2025-12-28 16:09:00 Vlad is also continuely talking about regulations, but where T&C? And I'm sure Coinbase is also totally cool to launch a token under such conditions and without tokenomics?

2025-12-28 16:20:42 And doing a TGE while not involving Coinbase from day one while you're on the roadmap because ''we don't need it'' is absolute non-sense, Coinbase is where most of the new liquidity will need to come from.

2025-12-28 17:23:47 At the ''which day'' market 31 December is now even at 11%, people will really believe anything except for it to take place in 2026 in a well announced and organized manner.

2025-12-28 18:07:17 Also, the way they've been working through Christmas alligns with them being Orthodox, so they're basically about to go on vacation.

2025-12-28 22:30:46 Or the initial 29th pump (which was done with only a few hundred USD) was used as a teaser to keep the market engaged during a very silent period.

2025-12-29 06:18:23 TGE any second for sure, trust the process guys, insiders in control.

2025-12-29 06:26:10 I'm 100% sure that 30 December is an even better day in terms of liquidity to perform a ghost TGE, and absolutely not a situation where airdrop farmers will be dumping on slower airdrop farmers.

2025-12-29 06:45:27 Sir, I thrive in absolute chaos.

2025-12-29 14:16:35 The insiders weren't inside after all, pathetic.

2025-12-29 14:56:13 Imo this shows that they won't TGE without Coinbase: [link removed]

2025-12-29 15:17:13 MEXC is now showing LIT to launch in about 212 hours, which I guess is about 6 January.

2025-12-29 16:52:31 India about to declare war on Russia and nuke Pakistan because of Vlad, the new multipolar world order in shambles.

2025-12-29 16:54:20 Yeah, but it was also them hinting at a listing on the 29th that made everyone buy into the 29th after all.

2025-12-29 17:40:47 These new transactions are the same as we already saw, manually transferred and all into totally empty wallets, for those other they've already stated that those weren't for the purpose of an airdrop.

2025-12-29 18:03:55 Do people know that to stay above 1 or 2B FDV there also needs to be buying liquidity to mitigate the massive airdrop farmer sell pressure? And where are they going to get such buy liquidity if nobody knows that the TGE exists while on X stories doing rounds of them silently sending millions in revenue to Coinbase?

2025-12-29 19:46:04 The team is currently already relaxing on a floating duck in a swimming pool with some vodka.

2025-12-29 20:22:45 Plot twist: Luke Littler will be wearing a ''Lighter TGE 2025'' jersey tonight.

2025-12-29 20:33:29 Where January 6 and 7?

2025-12-29 22:28:05 The sell pressure if they launch before NYE will only get worse with each hour because of all of this.

2025-12-29 22:40:51 Also, if they do a TGE then both Polymarket bets will be closed shortly after, now they've got a new Polymarket bet that runs untill the end of 2026, it's free real estate for them.

2025-12-29 23:08:28 If they don't launch on the 29th all the 29th betters will have to recoup their losses by dumping for sure.

2025-12-30 05:10:32 ''We are building in the USA and the token is issued directly from our C-Corp'' - Where T&C? So no launch without Coinbase then? / ''As we head into 2026, onward and upward!'' Thanks Vlad, see you and the TGE in 2026 after the vacation break. GG

2025-12-30 15:08:41 It was a nice try, still made profits by doing some little swingtrading though, and the day is not over yet, but the Lighter team really showed their greed by rugging the 29th truthers like that, they were probably their most loyal supporters, airdroppers will leave for the next thing and in a week everyone will have forgotten about Lighter, they should've waited for a regular date to do a well prepared TGE.

2025-12-30 16:44:22 It's either going to break upwards or downwards, but with the coming FOMC and the massive sell pressure while it's not listed on other exchanges it's more likely to go down, I guess it will turn into a fight around the 2B FDV after the FOMC.

2026-01-04 04:39:40 Never underestimate Dick Advocaat, signed Dick Advocaat

2026-01-04 04:43:25 Urgay for the 3th time for sure

2026-01-10 18:42:07 Damn, that's sad to hear, but I just looked into it, I only got filled 3.3K Rob's @ 45c average, none of my buy orders in other markets were hit, I was planning on adding orders for VVD + CDA + D66, but hadn't yet, unfortunetaly, so my total profits from this are only 1.8K, I'll send 1K back on your new account, I guess through a tip?

2026-01-10 20:44:51 I looked a little bit more closely into it, but my total profits from this are actually a little bit less, it's more like 1650, currently selling the Robs, but I'll send 1K anyway, might contact in several days if I don't hear anything here, I'm going to have to monitor the NFL closely.

2026-01-15 22:42:14 @iusedtowritepoetryforaliving werkte dat? ($1 test)

2026-01-30 02:49:16 What if they're just testing to see the reaction of the bondmarket to this news and instead go for Waller.

2026-01-30 05:06:05 Yes, he's a warlock.

2026-02-09 17:48:06 Waller will save the markets.

2026-02-15 13:35:58 Kok, met k o k.

2026-03-08 20:43:17 There's a thing which doesn't seem to be incoorporated in the odds yet, which is that the 5 withdrawing countries all sort of have Western European preferences/voting patterns, and yes, Slovenia too, Slovenia is not a real Slavic country, it's a semi-Germanic Alpoid country, and the 3 returning countries all have similar Balkanic preferences/voting patterns, meaning that voting patterns/preferences have shifted +8 countries in the direction of the Balkan and Eastern Europe all over the board in comparison to last year, they're all going to make it into the Final and their favorites like Greece and Bulgaria are heavily undervalued right now.

2026-03-24 02:57:07 Guys, we need Rice, Olise, Valverde, Rapinha and Vitinha.

2026-03-24 17:13:19 Nah, we haven't heard the winner yet.

2026-03-28 17:20:15 People aren't ready for the total Moldovian victory that's about to manifest.

2026-03-31 21:51:33 Saar, you have 2 shares.

2026-04-03 19:16:46 This bet has already surpassed the total volume of last year, imagine the chaos in the final week and during the live shows.

2026-04-08 20:58:09 This bet needs an update to be relevant, so wen update?

2026-04-08 21:29:26 So many Nordic and Western European countries in the top in the most Eastern European / Balkan centric edition just doesn't add up, the fandom has gone insane yet again.

2026-04-08 21:35:39 There's room for Nordic and Western European countries to win, but just not like this with 2 Nordics eating almost 50% of the odds, just wait until the Normie TikTok masses find out who's actually on duty.

2026-04-14 16:54:29 ''You're a liar liar, your pants on fire fire'' is a sure Jury winner though.

2026-04-16 15:32:44 Finland: could be, but it's not a real favorite for Jury or Tel and Finish might be a problem for Tel, so Finland will only win if the overall winner turns out to be a low scoring winner, France: could be, Jury domination but Tel very unsure, Denmark: total flop, typical fan favorite but not favorited by anyone else, Australia: could be, other big Jury favorite but is anyone, except from some boomers going to vote for it?, Israel: could be, if there's nobody with a very high score, so low scoring overall and Israel does another fraud OP it could totally win, Greece: could be, but I place it in the same category as Moldova, there's always one country in the ''joke'' category who does very well, it could definitely be Greece but I think that it will turn out to be Moldova instead of Greece, Italy: could be, same as Israel (not the fraud), if the overal winner has a low score it could do just well enough both in the Jury and Tel, it's so boomer coded that it attracts both generation TikTok and actual boomers, okay, this was my presentation, thanks for coming.

2026-04-20 18:58:32 They should change the name in EBC, European Boring Contest, no market volatility, everything is just absolutely static, PATHETIC!

2026-04-25 03:33:00 People would be better off buying England ''Bringing it home'' in the WC bet for like 11% than buying Kane for about 40% here, but whatever.

2026-04-25 18:22:01 Israel on the rise, just as there are coming out reports of several white unmarked minivans each offloading dozens of black generic sportsbags at the EBU headquarters, yeah, the rig is on.

2026-04-26 16:48:17 Romania is last year's Finland, too sexual oriented, not going to work, circa 15 in the GF, it is written.

2026-04-26 22:26:26 I'm more busy with the NBA and NFL PO's and the MLB now.

2026-04-26 22:28:52 I'm not buying expensive No's, I simply don't buy Romania and buy selected other Yes's.

2026-04-29 17:10:17 Eurojury's top 5 being the exact same as the top 5 in the odds can only mean that there is still lots of twists, turns and story arcs in store.

2026-04-29 17:16:29 Also the rest of the field is so randomly divided that there might be 10+ shock Q's and NQ's.

2026-04-29 21:16:20 What I mean with that is that Eurojury is historically wrong on about 2-3 of the actual top 5 on average, and if you then take a look at the amount of streams compared to earlier years the ''bubble bias'' might even be stronger this year, since less streams means less external input thus a higher ''bubble bias'' on average.

2026-04-29 21:44:40 Last year's most underrated by ''bubble bias'': Austria (opera), Estonia (joke entry), Italy (?, u wot m8) and Greece (Balkan ethno).

2026-04-30 18:50:07 France has fallen.

2026-04-30 21:35:58 Yeah, and if the bigger public attention doesn't pick up soon it would only take one song to go mildly viral on TikTok during the last week and it could literally win the Televote based on that.

2026-05-02 04:09:46 ''Mom, the Polymarket whales are manipulating the Eurovision odds again.''

2026-05-02 19:39:58 The small hats are going to Joost Finland confirmed.

2026-05-03 02:08:36 I want to do a special shoutout to the 76ers.

2026-05-05 05:27:02 Winners tend to have a clear concept/story or political message, it's not required to have a clear story when the song is politically loaded, but Finland isn't politically loaded so it needs a clear concept/story, and quite frankly the concept/story isn't very clear, people will be wondering about whether he's singing about his ex, a demon, an angel or his mother, it's just not clear at all, even the Finish translation is sort of a mess, this is problematic, same could be said about Greece though, a joke entry also still needs a clear concept/story and actually be funny, and I'm not really seeing much definitive on that either, which could be a cultural divide, Southern and Eastern Europe might understand or see it, but I'm not really seeing it.

2026-05-05 15:45:09 Wolves or Lakers vs Knicks, this final was promised to me 6000 years ago.

2026-05-05 16:35:06 I've done some extensive intensive backttracking empirical data research and the only time in recent history that the objectively best song actually won was Emmelie de Forest in 2013.

2026-05-05 22:55:49 Because it's the only one with meme/virality TikTok potential.

2026-05-06 16:47:56 Greece is over, Sweden is over, Moldova is over and the next countries to publish rehearsals are also over.

2026-05-06 22:07:11 Total nothingburgers.

2026-05-08 19:59:07 Sal on 25% tomorow for sure.

2026-05-09 15:38:09 Because they're better at scheming and wear funny little hats.

2026-05-09 22:11:02 Rumour is that Linda saw Pete flirting with Felicia while getting drunk, so Linda confronted him about it which led him to smash the violin into thousand pieces and then he stepped into the car, drove off and got caught for drunk driving, he's in an Austrian jail now, not a good look imo.

2026-05-10 17:07:20 Israel was literally advertising for people to vote 10 times with 1 number, so that can only mean one thing, Israeli fraud and crime is back on the menu.

2026-05-10 21:45:15 So anyone else's ''Yes'' shares for ''end of 2026'' also not showing up?

2026-05-10 21:48:40 I have, but I don't use it often, only for technical problems/emergencies really, why?

2026-05-11 04:01:06 I literally have about 16K Israel?

2026-05-11 15:48:47 Rumour is that Akylas is doing a collab with epic sax guy live on stage.

2026-05-11 15:52:40 Not sure if epic sax guy will be allowed to go back to Moldova after this though, he might be forced to move to Greece.

2026-05-11 20:20:04 Trading volume going up faster than the US government debt.

2026-05-11 22:36:52 The total victory for Viva Moldova has arrived.

2026-05-12 16:46:57 Are Pete and Akylas even On Duty?

2026-05-12 19:53:39 Denmark on 13% is really the biggest mystery in all of this.

2026-05-12 20:54:21 Rumour is that Finland has NQ'd and that Pete is already on the plane to Helsinki.

2026-05-13 16:29:59 With these low viewer totals rigging the Televote will be even easier for Israel.

2026-05-13 19:57:19 Nahhh, the top 3 in objective quality are Moldova, Serbia and Latvia for sure.

2026-05-14 23:08:47 Eins, Zwei, Drei: from the Juries you've received 420 points.

2026-05-15 01:05:30 Denmark in the cuckstoel.

2026-05-15 01:17:08 Finland performing after Moldova means that Pete has to meet up with Moldova's energy.

2026-05-15 20:07:52 Pete has been spotted again, he's eating gyros and apparently he's already drunk, so I'm not so sure about the rigidness of their preparations.

2026-05-15 21:59:13 If Romania wins I want them to send a new band next year that is formed by Simion (drums), Crin (guitar), Lasconi (singer), Georgescu (saxofon) and Nicusor (sidekick support rapper).

2026-05-16 16:59:41 If Finland doesn't win they will revoke Pete's citizinship most probably.

2026-05-16 19:56:08 I'm hearing the winner right now.

2026-05-16 19:57:53 The winner of the rest of course, the real winner is Moldova.

2026-05-17 02:22:18 Pray for Pete, he lost his Finnish citizinship, he was also kicked out of the hotel, he's now spending the night as a homeless drunk man in Wien.

2026-05-19 02:26:03 Spurs versus Knicks, it's a bond.

2026-05-20 02:59:21 Knicks versus Spurs, nothing can stop what's coming.

2026-05-25 02:13:18 Corgi keeps winning.

2026-05-25 02:14:29 Trent Attyah however.

2026-05-25 16:41:36 All these buy and sell walls may look big, but the regulars and normies aren't active yet, they will only start to pour in just before the start and then it will turn into an absolute mayhem of liquidity really quick.

2026-05-31 02:40:14 It was going to be Spurs versus Knicks since October.

2026-05-31 16:58:29 Dick Advocaat is locked in, are you?

2026-05-31 17:04:40 Still waiting on some sheiks or African warlords to clip the complete orderbooks of their respective countries with market buy orders.

2026-06-04 03:08:58 Hehehe

2026-06-08 16:56:46 Trump is going to jinx it.

2026-06-11 03:35:43 Hehehe

2026-06-14 03:30:11 GZ

2026-06-14 03:47:04 GZ Knicks

2026-06-14 19:55:37 Aura farming with the Wilhelmus.

2026-06-17 02:33:56 We might need Messi, Polymarket team.

2026-06-21 20:49:53 If Iran wins I will finally be able to feed my children.

2026-06-23 18:12:29 Hairy Kane.

2026-06-25 02:15:47 Rumour is that Messi has been abducted by aliens.

2026-07-07 16:48:32 ''Yes, Argentina might have a tough time with Cape Verde and Egypt but they will surely beat Norway, England, France or Spain.'' - The common man

2026-07-13 21:47:52 Because there's some bot going insane.

2026-07-15 22:50:21 Typical ''most funny outcome is most likely outcome'' bet.

2026-07-17 00:47:11 Clearly this will be about Argentina's partnership with the FIFA or Elliot Page's horrendous acting job.

2026-07-19 22:18:26 The Ballon d'Or discources in the coming months are going to be top notch.

2026-07-19 22:20:58 Also: add Rodri.

2026-07-19 22:27:06 It's so over.

2026-07-19 22:34:24 In before a dispute by the Argentinian government.

2026-07-19 23:06:29 Does Kane's PR department have a budget of 1 billion dollar or something?

2026-07-20 05:26:15 In 2 months when all the dust has settled people (and the people who give out zeh points) will only remember Dictator Mbappe, Dembele's adventures, Rodri (add Rodri) and Bellingham since he was the most important player for England, Yamal, Messi and Kane will be 5, 6 and 7.

2026-07-20 05:29:04 Yamal and Kane battling it out for place 5 and Messi might even be left out of the top 7 in the end.

2026-07-20 21:30:33 Yamal wasn't even in the top 5 most important players of Spain, Kane wasn't even the most important man for England (that was Bellingham) and he only won the Bundesliga which is kind of mandatory for Bayern, it's only news when Bayern doesn't win the Bundesliga, Messi is playing at a club which only 3000 people in the world know that it exists, Rodri didn't play that much during the whole season due to the injury, Mbappe and Bellingham didn't had a good season with Real but Mbappe's and Bellingham's WC efforts won't be forgotten for a long time and Dembele won the CL for the second time in a row and had a quite good WC as well, so I guess it's going to be the wild west with discourses in the coming months, the PR machines are going to burn a lot of money for sure.

2026-07-21 05:32:26 Legends say that if people just keep buying Kane shares harder that he will win the Ballon d'Or.

2026-07-23 04:32:02 Where's the options for Neymar and Vinicius?

2026-08-06 01:29:20 I'm old enough to remember that in 2024 people bought up Vinicius to 96%.

2026-09-08 18:56:25 Add the missing.

2026-09-10 00:39:29 Is it crime or crying season?

2026-09-10 21:47:12 I guess it's also simply a matter of liquidity, when yupiii is done selling his No's the buying liquidity for Kane will plumett. Next to that is that there are simply a few semi-inactive whales with a lot of Kane shares who seem to be holding long term, but if one of those decides to sell the liquidity will also be depleted.

2026-09-14 00:58:52 At this rate the buywalls for Harry Kane will be gone in about 2 days.

2026-09-14 22:51:04 So I guess the Harry Kane liquidity depletion took even less than 2 days.

2026-09-14 22:56:27 I ment that even without massive sells it will go down since price stability in combination with the negative risk bots requires buying liquidity.

2026-09-15 15:58:25 What if Harry Kane's PR campaign literally just chose to pump a few hundred K into the betting markets very early on before anyone else to set the narrative that any change from now is just due to other PR campaigns.

2026-09-15 16:00:27 This also explains why the buying liquidity suddenly dried up a while ago.

2026-09-15 21:44:44 Because bookmakers let liquidity chase the odds, they saw the incoming liquidity after the WC and heavily raised the odds, why sell your odds for cheap when you can sell them expensive?

2026-09-18 20:08:41 Henlo Pollermarket, please add the missing nominees, not that they have any chance but they should be listed anyway.

2026-09-21 19:54:08 If Bayern had won the UCL or England the WC, or had Kane at least been the most important player for England (which was Bellingham), sure, but now? Nah, and the people who vote don't even watch any Bundesliga games, let alone that winning the title for Bayern is not like an actual achievment, it's mandatory, if BVB for example wins it then it's an actual achievment.

2026-09-24 03:53:46 Yamal probably.

2026-09-26 20:01:47 And this is why Kane is not going to win, always missing at the crucial moments.

2026-10-01 01:46:15 Harry's buy wall liquidity is depleting soon yet again.

2026-10-01 13:46:23 Yeah, but also no, Kane was extremely liquid which determined the price of everything else, extra liquidity was added after the last break but that's gone too now.

2026-10-01 17:08:55 Not a good day for the Kanecels.

2026-10-01 17:14:53 In the end it will turn into a Yamal versus Mbappe final fight for sure.

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