Account Information
Name:
TrashGirl
Bio:
half-normal, half-tstudent
Pseudonym:
Tan-Reduction
Created:
2025-12-01 01:23:05
Last Activity:
3 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
profile-image-4325125-b628495c-cfe5-458e-b1b7-13f9c21778ea.jpg
Total Profit
$-1,160
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$927.11
Markets traded
830
Trades
830
Largest win
$660.15
Profile views
482
Join date
2025-12-01 01:23:05
All-time rank
3017187
All-time PnL
$-1,159.67
All-time volume
$650,423.57
All-time profit
$-1,159.67
Lifetime volume
$650,423.57
PnL series latest
$-923.26
PnL series start
$-1,005.76
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$2,509.90
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 25517.9303 | $660.15 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 5170.7019 | $520.72 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? | No | 1514.4735 | $239.84 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of August 31 2026? | Yes | 1188.9085 | $-435.90 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1562.04 | $-283.16 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | Yes | 2716.5 | $-258.12 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in September? | No | 243.4 | $0.76 | $0.82 | $200.68 | $15.87 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | No | 161.5 | $0.74 | $0.79 | $127.58 | $8.19 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | 110 | $0.68 | $0.85 | $93.50 | $18.70 |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? | No | 137.5171 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $79.07 | $-10.31 |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 70 | $0.81 | $0.83 | $58.45 | $1.67 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 25517.9303 | $660.15 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 5170.7019 | $520.72 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? | No | 1514.4735 | $239.84 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27? | Up | 360 | $233.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July? | No | 1833.2846 | $224.24 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | Yes | $0.09 | 121.05 | $10.50 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.93 | 150 | $139.20 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | $0.70 | 10 | $7.00 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30? | Yes | $0.08 | 99.56 | $7.96 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30? | Yes | $0.08 | 250.44 | $20.04 |
Recent trades (830)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | Yes | $0.09 | 121.05 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $0.03 | 286.17 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | $0.09 | 550 |
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | No | $0.02 | 200 |
| 3 weeks ago | SELL | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | No | $0.02 | 367.81 |
Comments
2025-12-18 01:07:29
NO HANOUKA BECAUSE HE DOESNT KNOW WHATS THAT
2025-12-18 02:40:15
Why did he do this address at all? Just his usual pro-America mumble. why waste his time and everyone elses. At least I got couple $ from this...
2026-02-04 19:04:19
The consensus is quite far from reality at this point. Nvidia had a unique opportunity for ~5 years and accumulated huge profits but they still only earn from the same type of hardware. It was a technical glitch essentially that it became the most expensive one
2026-02-05 10:41:24
You better do. I may be wrong this day but unless they start or buy another business their revenue growth and competition won’t justify this valuation.
2026-02-17 00:04:00
Can rumor turn into reality, please 🙏
2026-02-17 18:34:07
Since judges are males from other countries - French have poor chances.
2026-02-19 01:52:35
Wayback machine of Internet Archive can be useful as a proof for this market. If you see top app change at any point - you can record that state of appstore.
2026-02-19 05:56:01
This is very shady to say the least but ok.
2026-02-19 08:12:04
Yeah nice trolling. This was trading at 40% 1 day before resolution with main contender dropping out. That’s against any prob theory assumptions. Leaderboard is either affected by an employee or a botnet of apple accounts. Not only the outcome is weird but all recent history of prices.
2026-02-19 15:02:07
Does Jesus Christ count as alien? I am planning to hedge this market
2026-02-19 16:54:57
Last 12 minute turnaround*
2026-02-22 14:28:13
I guess It would make sense for her to quit it herself - she pays very high taxes on her worldwide income with US citizenship.
2026-02-22 19:16:29
Rules require only "citizenship is officially rescinded". No reason requirement. Voluntary intent is the most common passway for that generally.
2026-02-22 20:21:56
Well, she can't renounce it by herself. Government has to rescind it after she expresses intent and pays quit tax. Regardless of the reason - there is an action from the government needed, so this language fits here either way. Otherwise, it would be unconstitutional like you said and this market doesn't make sense.
2026-02-23 12:11:07
It is now at level 3 and is surrounded by level 4 states.
2026-02-23 14:14:27
There is no delay - NYSE studio is live on youtube.
2026-02-23 20:11:02
I bet it is a yes for 80% of these names. What's even insider trading, when there are no regulations. but the release will be about one.
2026-02-23 21:36:43
lmao Meteora
2026-02-23 21:58:49
above all - their data is fully transparent everyone can see it - there is no room for insider trading at all. Those who bought yes got scammed by few fake commenters here just now.
2026-02-23 22:10:07
it is pump'n'dump by people who can't win fairly. Youtube insider cmon 😭
2026-02-23 23:26:35
damn snow is melting.
2026-02-24 03:19:17
I guess Meteora can be hated by many crypto companies and be a target for an attack as they suppress volatility and kinda steal business from those who earn on liquidations. But I doubt ZachXBT would go for something like that. Also insider Trading and Meteora - hard to match.
2026-02-24 03:43:53
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ok
2026-02-24 03:56:04
Trees in the park accumulated a lot of snow - that's -1 inch perhaps on the ground 😅
2026-02-24 11:31:56
yeah
2026-02-24 13:59:22
Imho it doesn't make any sense to buy any "yes" here above 5%, unless you know the answer somehow. There are so many companies which are not even on this list.
2026-02-24 16:12:32
easy - a market can be created, where a narrow group of people, including creator already knows the answer.
2026-02-24 21:06:56
tht's excty why I sold at 99.8
2026-02-25 00:03:08
It's 25th feb - 35%
2026-02-26 00:16:51
The problem with this market is that views can be artificially exaggerated by bots. What partly protects from this is that only registered X accounts count as views. But there are certainly botnets of such accounts too. I would be cautious with this market.
2026-02-26 10:30:25
This market is uninvestable. apart from manipulation from insiders, the resolution depends on one person, who is fully aware of this situation and can take any descision at this point - wises is to stay away.
2026-02-26 19:57:57
cheater
2026-02-27 11:24:17
I didn't get any refund at all. Did you get? How much did you get out of invested money?
2026-02-27 11:40:00
yeah you couldn't propose as there is a whitelist of those who could propose, when someone disputed 30M+ they lost. It doesn't make any sense at all.
2026-02-27 12:41:54
I am not sure it costs thousand bucks to bot views by 25M+ as it requires registered twitter accounts. But according to twitter rules one account can be counted multiple times if they view from different devices. Bot's need to change user-agent string simply to do that. But perhaps there is hard limit per user anyway. I guess may be 10 views from 1 account max.
2026-02-28 13:41:03
It will be impossible to confirm if the whole site is bombed. Iran won't confirm either ofc. and they definitely pre-recorded series of videos from him for case of his death - liKe he is alive. Uninvestable.
2026-03-05 06:40:21
I got today refund in amount of spent money on shares here.
2026-03-09 21:10:28
He can't say Ayatollah or Khamenei because he doesn't know what's that.
2026-03-20 20:08:28
and yet he continues tweeting
2026-03-22 05:53:56
The way how this market rules are defined makes it most certainly a No. I don't see a way for negotiations here and anyone from Iranian side officially saying we are going into ceasefire. Most likely scenario - US will stop attacking and Iran will stop responding simply for a while - it is a No still here.
2026-03-26 14:20:02
To those who used chatbot to find out that there is a 2 year lock-up period for tickers. ARRY ticker was used by Array Biopharma until 2019 Jul, in 2020 Oct it was taken by a new IPOed company Array Technologies.
2026-03-27 05:57:37
who changed the rules to be some mess? This market should remain open until the very first day of trading - not any announcements by the company or other "reliable" sources (what's that?). There will be multiple preliminary filings with SEC, where ticker may be mentioned and might be changed at a later filing too.
2026-04-01 18:57:21
If there will be several classes of shares then the voting shares for executives will be of a lesser market cap, because they don't need many of those shares - just will give them 10:1 voting power.
2026-04-04 18:23:10
what a gift 😄
2026-04-04 19:09:24
t: @voiceofisrael targeted Ben Gurion Airport. Al jazeera: interception working. Alarm off in 8 minutes. It was intercepted obviously.
2026-04-04 19:17:36
It doesn’t even matter if it fell after the interception according to rules here.
2026-04-04 19:39:50
lmao. why do you think it fell there, you think they can't target it? 😅 It hasn't even reach tel aviv, though it was flying there.
2026-04-04 20:04:23
Can anyone who had 750$ of free stablecoin explain why didn't you dispute on time? is it only because there is a whitelist of disputers? I have this but would need to sell other crypto and bridge to polygon. I am just wondering if it's worth it to do it next time or waste of time and money since it is corrupt here.
2026-04-04 21:23:51
Look there is only one reporter, who posted on his personal twitter that a rocket fell in an open area. But he was engaged in a similar situation 2 weeks ago and wrote an article about it himself and what he thinks about polymarket. The guy simply writes it for trolling on his personal account now. There is no official source. The reality is that it is nearly impossible for houthies to hit something in Israel with what they have now and with rockets flying over Saudi Arabia, which closely monitors everything in the sky now.
2026-04-04 21:26:48
I have no idea. I don't understand why it wasn't disputed. I am new here.
2026-04-04 21:44:17
it is the same person. open his twitter and read his pinned post article. wording is one to one the same. He is trolling.
2026-04-04 22:26:27
I read his article now. He is in his right to write whatever he wants and I bet they liked this polymarket story generally and want to develop this material within their media. It is just that they are not credible source to resolve this. IDF didn't post anything like that officially. This is a rather sensitive situation for polymarket now, but regardless of that market should trade according to the rules which are written and the facts, which are that rocket was launched, but it was intercepted...
2026-04-04 23:09:33
What a mess polymarket... Why you allow this to happen constantly for markets to resolve to wrong answers. I don't know how I am in profit here yet at all.
2026-04-07 18:34:29
Most likely there will be 2 tickers as he needs separate voting shares. if they don't begin with the same letters, then market will be trading until the IPO day and ticker with highest market cap will win. But 99% it will be the one that is not for voting shares.
2026-04-08 15:52:24
Well any breach of ceasefire by any party from now on will break the 14 day period. So it can resolve earlier. At least that's how I read it.
2026-04-14 20:10:07
hmm Hezbollah... It is not even a party to the conversation now.
2026-04-16 18:23:54
unilateral pause in hostilities is not considered an official ceasefire...
2026-04-16 18:30:53
this should trade at 8-15% now because ceasefire is unilateral yet. Also proposal was too early - can dispute based on that only... if we follow the rules here of course.
2026-04-16 18:37:31
Trump's announcement is solely for negotiations with Iran. There will be no actual ceasefire confirmation from Hezbollah based on Israel's demands... It is a No if rules are respected here.
2026-04-16 18:49:16
well. 2 isn't reached either. There are just headlines that Trump and Israel announced ceasefire. But there is no reporting of Hezbollah agreeing for that at all. Actually there are opposite reports in media. Noisy headlines from Trump are not an official ceasefire agreement.
2026-04-16 19:00:53
Polymarket is a total mess, where markets resolve to whatever side the staff bought actually. Reality doesn't matter. Rules are not respected.
2026-04-16 19:04:34
so what? it is a unilateral ceasefire so far. Where is Hezbollah side there. There needs to be announcements in the media that Hezbollah agreed to support the ceasefire.
2026-04-16 19:45:26
there is none. you've been scammed. there are no rules here.
2026-04-17 02:59:50
Same people circus all the time. Funny thing they feel like they are successful. nothing bothers stealing money.
2026-04-17 12:34:20
How to participate in the voting:
2026-04-17 12:49:32
I bought UMA tokens on etherium blockchain with uniswap. was able to commit vote after.
2026-04-17 12:55:08
Only take a note that there are only 11 hours left to commit the vote, not 35 hours.
2026-04-17 12:56:26
why P1, it must be P4 - too early to judge. Until 18th of April there is still a chance Hezbollah confirms.
2026-04-17 13:13:58
don't vote No. It is incorrect.
2026-04-17 13:26:36
approximately 17M UMA tokens are participating in these votes in total. Just to estimate how's your chances to affect the outcome.
2026-04-17 18:07:15
you can buy on uniswap or portalbridge on eth blockchain.
2026-04-18 05:09:51
there is a group of people, who hold the most UMA tokens and they control the voting system - they don't care about playing fairly. But 17M UMA tokens is only 6M$. I thought it would be possible to flip the vote by buying 6M$ worth of UMA and make them lose everything.
2026-04-18 15:17:19
I couldn't even imagine how bad the situation would be. I voted with 400 shares P4. 10M UMA is controlled by thieves. They don't care about winning fairly at all.
2026-04-19 08:41:54
I lost 2.5% of my UMA for voting P4 last time. To flip the vote 6M$ worth of UMA are required.
2026-04-19 14:54:29
vote P1 now, right?
2026-04-19 14:56:59
390 UMA. I lost 2.5% last time because of the "presumably" wrong vote. geez.
2026-04-19 15:08:37
ok yes P1 I think is correct right now. Well there is no chance the vote will flip unless new big pockets come and bring new 10M UMA in. But I will vote nevertheless correctly.
2026-04-19 15:45:10
well I am ok to win 2000$. if a miracle happens. dunno. anyway this positioning won't matter for the resolution really.
2026-04-20 14:16:20
Revealed P1. only 1/300 of the vote weights did the same
2026-04-21 15:33:15
🥹🥹🥹
2026-04-23 18:26:32
I think No is correct resolution here if one can read and comprehend the rules. Only it makes it again obvious that Hezbollah market was scammed.
2026-04-24 09:54:58
🤡
2026-04-25 06:38:25
I wonder how it can be extended if it never happened. This doesn't even make any sense now at all. 🤡
2026-04-29 08:17:44
what's even more amazing is that they keep recreating these markets resolve them incorrectly and still keep ruining their credibility as platfrom and still keep stealing money from new participants. Hope all these scouts/cars are arrested eventually.
2026-04-30 20:23:04
It's really more like 50-50 which will be more expensive in 2 month. Why was it trading at 3c 1 week ago I have no idea.
2026-05-01 20:52:27
Nvidia will fall after earnings. DRAM prices, in-house chips and China's share loss won't allow accelerating growth this year.
2026-05-01 22:21:46
add Panda please - he was going to visit China this month
2026-05-03 14:21:34
None
2026-05-11 07:43:46
Which day was the "street" or "streets" mentioned on? I can't see it.
2026-05-11 08:19:45
They need to change the system into AI based resolution based on provided context links. There will be less mistakes overall.
2026-05-11 08:42:59
Bro why buy the wrong answer and hope that some scammers will be on the same side. Don't you feel cheap to win like that?
2026-05-11 11:54:15
why did you dispute but didn't buy anything at low prices? you are average at 99.7%. ouch
2026-05-11 12:58:22
It is not bold, nor big, nor below main Headline, nor it was resolved on May 6th, why it would turn Yes on May 10th suddenly? Also these were not Orphans XD.
2026-05-12 06:55:29
what a misleading market title. capturing one train station is not the same as capturing the whole town. I lost 4$!!!
2026-05-13 22:20:51
It is very strange to expect a new prime minister to achieve anything within 1 year. Instead of hard work these guys are busy biting everyone's piece of the pie. King came today, seat like a doll for 1 hour and retreated - nothing's happening. UK's in the crisis they won't be able to come out of it seems. The vicious circle started with cockneys voting brexit.
2026-05-14 09:33:11
There should be a market for how many packages he drops off the belt. I saw at least 2 XD
2026-05-14 12:08:23
Honestly it is a shame as a benchmark. Absolutely unimpressive task that could be done much faster and cheaper with a simple 2 joint robotic manipulator. Why there is a robot with head and legs for this - no idea. It looks behind some other companies with modest resources.
2026-05-14 15:52:30
22:46:53
2026-05-15 09:59:32
company stated that he actually flips all packages so that barcode is at the bottom. ☝️
2026-05-15 14:43:15
I don't get how Alphabet can trade at 2% right now for May. it is so short-sighted. Will see though.
2026-05-15 15:18:17
I mean what changed here. Did you think he wouldn't invite him? It would be inpolite.
2026-05-15 17:57:09
I know what will happen - when robot goes charging he steps on a pile of packages that's already on the floor, falls down and blocks the way. That's how we will lose all the money. My only hope there is a human with a mop who quietly removes all those packages from the floor underneath the camera 🙏
2026-05-15 18:58:47
There will be 2 tickers anyway since Elon will get another class for voting. it's been reported by multiple agencies so far. market should remain open and capitalization will matter.
2026-05-15 21:13:41
its rating is C though.
2026-05-15 21:29:10
Reuters article in case you can't access:
2026-05-15 21:34:04
SpaceX, which is set to trade under the ticker 'SPCX', has accelerated its IPO timeline and is now aiming to flip its prospectus public as early as next Wednesday, with a roadshow launch targeted for June 4 and a market debut as early as June 12, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
The new plan to IPO during the second week of June represents a quicker-than-expected timeline for SpaceX's offering, pulling forward a process that had initially been targeted for late June — around the time of Musk's birthday — the sources said, requesting anonymity as the discussions are private.
A faster-than-expected review of the company's IPO paperwork by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was partially responsible for the company's move to bring forward the listing timeline, the sources added.
SPCX was previously the ticker for Tuttle Capital Management's SPAC-focused ETF before the firm switched to the SPCK ticker in April. The move at the time triggered speculation about SpaceX potentially choosing the newly available ticker.
Reuters was first to report in March that SpaceX was leaning toward listing its shares on Nasdaq, as it sought early inclusion on the Nasdaq 100 index
SpaceX did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Nasdaq declined to comment. The SEC was not immediately available for comment.
2026-05-16 08:07:21
even that is not enough (from chatgpt):
When a company files its initial Form S-1 (or Form F-1 for foreign issuers), many details—such as the number of shares, the estimated price range, the underwriting syndicate, and even the proposed ticker symbol—are treated as provisional placeholders. As the company goes through successive review rounds with the SEC, it submits amended registration statements (Form S-1/A). During this amendment window, it is entirely normal for companies to swap out their initially chosen ticker symbol before the stock ever hits the trading floor.
2026-05-16 08:08:54
1. Ferrari N.V. (2015)
The most high-profile and textbook case of a pre-IPO ticker change is the luxury sports car manufacturer, Ferrari.
Initial F-1 Filing: Ferrari originally filed its registration paperwork intending to list under the placeholder ticker "FRRI".
The S-1/A Change: As the company refined its marketing strategy and investor roadshow pitch, they realized they could secure something vastly more impactful. In subsequent amendments, they officially changed the proposed symbol to "RACE", creating one of the most memorable tickers on Wall Street.
2026-05-16 08:31:22
S-1 can't be considered an official announcement by the company as it is a paperwork process only. If they want to speed up IPO they want to file earlier and can write any available ticker in the initial filing because obviously ticker is not the most important aspect of the IPO. Then amend it later when they finalize it.
2026-05-16 08:45:43
We are dealing with probabilities here. It certainly will be a range of values with their respective probabilities.
2026-05-16 22:42:02
None
2026-05-16 23:09:56
Don't let him exit May 19 with profit 😄
2026-05-18 12:12:25
When S-1 is released to public don't resolve this market yet - whatever is written in there. in 90% of IPOs there are multiple S-1/A filing, which can amend anything in the text. S-1 is just a paperwork process with SEC - then can enter ABCD as a placeholder there for ticker and change it later. Nothing is final until the trading day or at least the investor's roadshow planned for June.
2026-05-18 21:41:19
because they removed many square boxes and he processes now about 5% faster.
2026-05-19 08:46:53
I'd say 30/70. They can choose any goal really.
2026-05-19 10:23:05
the problem with polymarket is that such articles sometimes result in wrong resolution if there are UMA voters bagholders and they are about to lose big.
2026-05-19 23:55:48
you don't start an attack on the terms, which you publically disclosed.
2026-05-20 00:14:49
team can really affect their speed. at some point I saw 1380 per hour if they give them less boxes and put more items in the correct position already.
2026-05-20 20:59:48
sec. gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/[link removed]
on the first page it is written: "The information in this preliminary prospectus is not complete and may be changed. The securities described herein may not be sold until the registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange".
It is explicitly said that any information may yet change before listing. Imho can't be resolved yet.
2026-05-20 21:25:27
It is definitely not zero chance the ticker can be changed yet, perhaps even intentionally during roadshow to attract attention and retail interest. Leave for 1 month to value these chances.
2026-05-21 20:55:48
Team behind the robot fully controls if this market will resolve to yes or no now. There is enough time for him to do it now at any pace by 22:00. I think they will make it to round number.
2026-05-21 21:02:58
it is not his exact wording.
2026-05-21 22:16:05
well the message says tune in 6pm Pacific time. it is exactly at 200:00:00. I guess it will keep running while they talk yet for some time.
2026-05-21 22:37:23
I am sitting on a sofa, sipping wine, gambling on polymarket for fun... while robot does the job. I guess that's the near future of humanity. I am just slightly ahead of time.
2026-05-22 01:09:28
heh only broke even
2026-05-23 10:14:01
there is a group of scammers, who control majority of UMA. need to be careful with political markets - stay away when they buy. Unless your conscience allows to join the scam of course and rob people.
2026-05-23 22:11:15
If it states any term - even 60 days, which is quite long. It can't be considered permanent peace deal. Because a question is raised what happens after these 60 days, will war resume? The spirit of the market is to develop an acceptable compromise by both sides to end war for a long time. Any test regime for 60-days or more likely until mid-term elections - isn't permanent and will probably be used to prepare region better for the new offensive.
2026-05-23 23:01:20
I don't see how Lebanon situation will resolve any time soon, will Israel give up all gains and simply withdraw? No way. But in such case Iran won't say they agree to this deal. It is most likely will be progress on peace talks which never happens. Also nuclear situation - with a delay for 30 days of this question it can't be considered permanent now, if they don't agree on that later, war will resume at some point.
2026-05-23 23:24:01
only you bet on December, not May for perhaps the same reasons.
2026-05-23 23:31:39
lol I probably lost one bottle of beer there, which my wealth still allows.
2026-05-24 09:45:31
Well obviously the purpose of the document is to lower oil prices and win time, can such document be considered permanent peace deal? Without resolution on remaining key questions - it can't.
2026-05-27 15:36:33
exactly this is a dangerous market now because resolution system is corrupt - wording and timing will matter but if it will be respected is a big question. Anyway I think nothing will be signed by June at all yet.
2026-06-03 11:42:04
buddy, how much effort did you put into investigating this topic? 5 minutes? try to talk to a chatbot about the situation at least.
2026-06-05 19:01:43
fun day. 3% correction out of nothing. like everything on wall street.
2026-06-07 22:37:11
1. A1151/26 NOTAM closed west part of airspace to Tehran.
2. There are flightradar reports of planes which were actually diverted from their airports of destinations in Iran. Or postponed entry to Iran airspace.
I think this time it is a very clear closure.
2026-06-07 23:30:51
I agree it is not clear from the rules do they mean about these 2 airports being closed - if it is an AND condition or OR condition. But given the qualifying examples you can conclude that it is OR actually. so closed western airspace must be sufficient. Rules could be written better for sure.
2026-06-11 15:25:10
I guess this can be resolved already. I dunno why they didn't get X. I think it will eventually be trading under this ticker. Perhaps it will be a reason to attract capital again or unite with tesla.
2026-06-12 21:42:25
Heh and I thought it was a serious benchmark unlike lmarena. what a shame. 42% boost to all scores basically.
2026-06-12 22:12:09
Well... Typical polymarket here, when rules don't cover the situation at all. Basically all models got +42% for free due to errors in tasks. It doesn't reflect the nature of the market, when models were supposed to get improved... not the benchmark. Well there is now v1 published, which will resolve to No everywhere and v2, which will resolve to Yes otherwise. Rules don't state anything about 2 versions of the benchmark. I think it would be fair to resolve it 50-50 here in these circumstances. But I won't insist.
2026-06-12 23:23:26
When 42% of tasks are changed it is literally a new benchmark, not a little upgrade. Can appeal to the part of the rules that state "Studies which are not included in the leaderboard will not be considered". But I guess the opposite side will also find arguments. Rules are really not complete for this situation. I think 50-50 is the most fair option in this situation.
2026-06-13 11:45:43
the problem is that it is everyday like that.
2026-06-13 17:04:03
read his full post. He is hopeful it will work out only.
2026-06-13 17:11:11
Re-read the rules. statements 1 and 2. He didn't commit to anything like that today except for probable signing of agreement tomorrow.
2026-06-13 17:17:57
there is no commitment to anything. he didn't renew the ceasefire as of this post. All he announced what the deal is about and that it will be signed tomorrow he hopes.
2026-06-14 22:10:37
if he exists then he will.
2026-06-14 23:13:31
Honestly, it doesn't qualify as yes here, because it is not the final deal - both sides say so, and fighting may resume. Both sides commit to stop fighting right now, but give conditions that they will resume if what is signed is not working and there will still be negotiations continuing too.
2026-06-14 23:20:14
yeah I think Trump's words do qualify for this criteria n2 - though he exaggerates things all the time, but Iran's representative did not commit to permanent peace from their side - what their seniors say is preconditioned on how US will act.
2026-06-14 23:41:36
Yes is impossible here already for June based on the text of MOU and is very unlikely for all other dates too.
2026-06-15 18:25:11
Iranian President's Pezeshkian statement:
What has been agreed upon is an important step toward stopping the
war and beginning negotiations, and a final agreement has yet to take
shape.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has prepared itself for all options, and the
government's focus-with or without an agreement-is sincere service
to the people. The Iranian nation has learned from its martyred Imam not
to submit to humiliation.
Obviously criteria n1 and n2 is not met for YES here.
2026-06-15 18:47:08
based on how this system works in practice - no.
2026-06-15 19:07:13
president of pakistan is not a primary source here even in this question. of course Iranian side speaks for themselves.
2026-06-16 00:12:00
they probably resolved it too early - had to wait until exact conditions officially announced, but MOU definitely has something about restricting nuclear weapons and it satisfied those rules.
2026-06-16 14:46:59
I agree that pause will count according to these rules. Only there will be no such words in signed memorandum.
2026-06-17 00:05:43
It doesn't matter if they do it now or not, it is important if they commit to. There won't be such wording (first of all it's leaked already), because they know if they agree for that now, it will be harder to revert this later and they are in their right to pursue peaceful nuclear program, especially as they have nuclear power plants already.
2026-06-17 01:12:23
First, if it is a working logic, then why it is not YES already by now.
Second, how do you know that they don't enrich right now? Even Intelligence and IAEA don't know. While main known sites were bombed, Iran was building several secret facilities and external supervision was never allowed there. Iran claimed last time after 12-day war 2025 that they have secret operational centrifuges. You won't even be able to prove that they don't enrich it right now for your thesis.
2026-06-17 11:12:13
Not true, this was superseded by 2015 nuclear agreement, which allowed enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years, and the enriched uranium stockpile limited to 300 kg and supervision of IAEA. Iran first breached this 2019 publicly by declaring enrichment to 5%. Then this whole thing collapsed and wasn't followed due to strikes and new sanctions. but even reverting back to these initial condition won't satisfy the rules of this market: "Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—will not qualify".
2026-06-17 17:30:24
Donald Trump was directly asked this question at the press conference. Don't want to spoil the joy of listening to his mumbling so you can find it yourself and speed up resolution - it is closer to the start of Q&A part.
2026-06-18 09:38:54
That's what was signed yesterday according to Iranian sources:
دو طرف همچنین موافقت میکنند تا در مورد موضوع غنیسازی، و دیگر موضوعات مورد توافق دو طرف مرتبط با نیازهای هستهای جمهوری اسلامی ایران، بر اساس یک چارچوب رضایتبخش که در توافق نهایی مورد موافقت قرار خواهد گرفت، بحث کنند. توافق نهایی مفاد این بند را تایید خواهد کرد.
جمهوری اسلامی ایران و ایالات متحده آمریکا موافقت میکنند که تا زمان توافق نهایی وضعیت موجود را حفظ کنند؛ جمهوری اسلامی ایران وضع موجود را در برنامه هستهای خود حفظ خواهد کرد، و ایالات متحده آمریکا هیچ تحریمهای جدیدی علیه ایران وضع نخواهد کرد و نیروهای نظامی بیشتری را در منطقه مستقر نخواهد کرد.
2026-06-18 09:43:41
Or do you mean they plan to create some fake Iranian source that will contradict everything else?
2026-06-18 10:24:48
there is no enrichment in that plant - it is a generating reactor built by Russia.
2026-06-18 11:22:30
It is not their only nuclear reactor too... I think there is no really need for this argument. It is as simple as they didn't agree to end enrichment, though initially Trump wanted to add that clause. But it is not in the final document. that's all we need.
2026-06-18 11:52:09
Any News opinion article can't be considered a credible source in the Question "Iran" agrees. It should be someone with actual power in Iran to take such decisions. Pezeshkian, Araghchi, Ghalibaf commented on that already. Agreements clauses are revealed. Negotiations will take 60 days and they won't surrended their nuclear program completely based on them. It is 0% chance right now it can be Yes for June.
2026-06-18 12:14:35
By the way there is a sister market, which states will Trump agree for the enrichment of Uranium by June... That one should also go to No as per how those rules are written. All they basically agreed for is to postpone these questions until the final agreement. No new commitments from both sides except for non-development of Nuclear Weapon. Both markets are No actually.
2026-06-18 12:59:44
No you distort things, it is Donald Trump who wanted to include such clause and probably will pursue something like that now for the final deal. But they didn't accept these conditions. So he had to surrender this demand for now as he wanted to sign something asap to open the strait primarily and not put burden on world economy. By December it is also very low chances I'd say. Because Iran spent 70 years on these technologies.
2026-06-18 20:02:25
yes you have to be =D
2026-06-18 20:40:41
Good point. why participate at all in this though? It is like working for thieves.
2026-06-18 21:19:48
really? can you name the source of this. I think this platform is good but mismanaged. it simply has to be taken over by some good less greedy hands and some people should go to jail. Things will get better then.
2026-06-19 09:19:17
Is it really needed? There is no single valid argument for it to be Yes according to current rules. Iran didn't commit to stop enrichment for any short period of time. They can do it right now.
2026-06-19 12:38:40
Overall it is quite expectable that Trump will eventually say that they don't follow MOU and will restart war, but by that time region will be much better prepared, munition stockpiles replenished and various oil pipes built. Overall it is just to win time - not any permanent peace deal.
2026-06-19 14:12:02
God bless the silly rich people. I've made already more on these swings than what I was planning to win on the initial fair NO.
2026-06-22 00:44:52
I think Trump's post increases chances of Starmer staying. What kind of leader will allow to be bullied like that and obey commands from Washington. Then, Trump's hated so much in the UK that if he doesn't like Starmer they will instead start liking him. They do everything opposite in general.
2026-06-22 08:41:24
Hyenas ate him. Poor guy.
2026-06-25 13:33:50
This looks like a little panic to me. Hold the line! there is still a chance they close the strait again.
2026-06-25 18:34:37
Reuters says that Ever Lovely ship was attacked today. But that ship never stopped for a second and keeps moving away from strait now as well as other Evergreen ships behind it. Dunno, looks like something had happened only in the articles not in the reality.
2026-06-25 18:40:44
Well do your own research - it is too easy and transparent in this particular market honestly.
2026-06-25 18:57:55
if next 5 days will be like it was today it will surely hit 60.
2026-06-26 16:31:37
actually it is enough to have one day with 400 ships too.
2026-06-27 20:02:18
apart from guessing the reality you also need to think which markets can be scammed and which not 🫠. If you think there are any other markets, which are not full of greedy stupid people, which sometimes become relatively successful but still greedy and stupid - the hard learning curve awaits you yet.
2026-07-09 23:03:19
This leaderboard is rubbish as gemini-3.5 is weaker at math than 3.1 pro as per google's own benchmarking. And is definitely weaker than all GPTs after 5.4
2026-07-17 09:11:23
I think it should - propose probably
2026-07-18 12:37:54
Ridiculous nonsense to change the rules 1 day before resolution. Basically money stealing by staff members.
2026-07-18 13:47:59
nah it is uninvestable now - they can always say it is not the photo which we meant, it was taken at the wrong moment. Rules shouldn't be changed in a way that moves market by 30% instantly.
2026-07-26 23:21:21
at price of 8.66RMB market cap is 579B RMB. stock code is 688825. Just for everyone's reference.
2026-07-27 06:40:32
ugh this was dangerous. I feel sorry for those who bought this IPO. This is now destined to half in price. This can't be more expensive than alibaba or icbc. its annual run rate is quarter of Micron's now too - not to mention technological gap.
2026-09-21 03:41:26
tru. though all the results are simply painted with a big brush. btw Liberal Democratic Party is a fake party, which is fully controlled by Kremlin, despite the name. The real Liberal Democratic Party, which exists, was not allowed to participate at all.
2026-09-21 05:04:16
If anyone's wondering where to check the results it is here: izbirkom. ru/election/587813923/commission/f0130cef-663a-4c57-b8ff-17054f8fa34e/?tab=results
There is an option to filter out and see individual regions or voting districts.
2026-09-21 10:30:55
Any Russian ip I guess
2026-09-21 13:06:52
Vologodskaya Oblast - Cherepovetsky, UR - 26.5%, Communists - 32%
izbirkom .ru/election/587813923/commission/701f5826-78bb-4836-8384-9e6ced036b69/results?type=6&report=242
2026-09-21 13:20:37
It is kinda interesting to see these region by region. The neighboring regions can have 30-40% difference in UR result. It is so unplausible. Also the regions, where communists won the previous election their results in 4 years dropped 20-30% this time. But some regions like Vologodskaya Oblast or Karelia, which were less problematic last time for UR - vice versa communists gained 10%. Everything's falsified literally.
2026-10-03 02:01:57
Rules are written poorly as usual. Infantry fighting each other?! Seriously? that's like the very last and rare stages of the modern warfare. But as far as I can understand artillery bombardment or rocket launches from naval ships within Yemen waters will count. Also artillery bombardments from Yemen territory too.