Account Information
Name:
DontTrustMe
Pseudonym:
Pale-Victory
Created:
2025-03-02 21:21:40
Last Activity:
1 month ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-2598907-0c4f6c2e-7884-45fe-b0f5-09a2b78ce287.png
Total Profit
$11,005
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$18,108.84
Markets traded
132
Trades
132
Largest win
$3,969.16
Profile views
7,433
Join date
2025-03-02 21:21:40
All-time rank
13901
All-time PnL
$11,005.35
All-time volume
$108,097.28
All-time profit
$11,005.35
Lifetime volume
$108,097.28
PnL series latest
$10,965.18
PnL series start
$11,606.51
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$1,364.38
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Yes | 5999.9996 | $3,969.16 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | Yes | 2499.9814 | $2,316.80 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 4099.978 | $924.19 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| French election called by October 17? | Yes | 1594.0253 | $-274.89 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | Yes | 2459.3969 | $-141.10 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 1004.0366 | $-133.19 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 1853.54 | $0.71 | $0.83 | $1,547.71 | $223.14 |
| Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 1384.46 | $0.86 | $0.94 | $1,301.39 | $104.75 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 1200 | $0.83 | $0.98 | $1,178.40 | $186.15 |
| Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | No | 944.1249 | $0.73 | $0.96 | $908.25 | $221.39 |
| Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | No | 1035.83 | $0.78 | $0.82 | $854.56 | $44.50 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Yes | 5999.9996 | $3,969.16 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | Yes | 2499.9814 | $2,316.80 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 4099.978 | $924.19 |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 1150.045 | $433.46 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | No | 1400 | $355.10 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | $0.32 | 245.435506 | $79.77 |
| 1 month ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Les Républicains have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election? | No | $0.99 | 755 | $751.23 |
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | No | $0.70 | 100 | $70.00 |
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | No | $0.75 | 97.09 | $72.82 |
| 1 month ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.0166 | $0.02 |
Recent trades (132)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Emmanuel Macron attend King Harald V's funeral? | No | $0.90 | 30 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will JD Vance attend King Harald V's funeral? | No | $0.86 | 141 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | No | $0.56 | 40 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | No | $0.82 | 25 |
| 1 month ago | SELL | National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026? | Yes | $0.83 | 81.12 |
Comments
2025-08-17 16:26:04
Shaking hands is a symbolic gesture representing respect, trust and civility between two people. Even if some form of agreement was reached before the end of the year, why would Zelensky go as far as performing an unecessary symbolic act of cordiality with someone that he considers responsible of a "genocide". No agreement will ever be sufficiently favourable to Ukraine for this to happen. "No" is a safe bet.
2025-08-18 09:38:43
Regardless of the validity of your "arguments" (they are baseless), it's obvious that Zelensky cares a lot about the optics of everything, starting with how he dresses since the start of the war. A handshake is not something that is strictly required in any scenario and therefore, it will not happen.
2025-08-18 23:08:48
Small fact: Zelensky and Putin did not publicly shake hands when they met in person in Paris in 2019, which is the only time that they met as presidents.
2025-08-27 09:38:23
Macron announcing new legislative elections is absolutely a realistic possibility.
2025-08-27 09:59:24
Enough parliamentary groups have already announced that they will not give their confidence to the current government. Most of them would actually welcome new legislative elections. Bayrou isn't and was never going to be a popular PM. This market seems fairly priced; the confidence vote will, in all likehood, fail. I think only some form of severe market stress on French bonds could maybe save him.
2025-09-09 10:41:17
I know that Macron reportedly really wants to appoint a new PM, but calling new general elections would be the only smart thing to do.
2025-09-11 17:43:05
I think it's a safe "No" yeah. Right now, the most crucial thing for France is to vote a budget for 2026. Macron's resignation would hardly solve anything. He wouldn't want to appear as a failed president who was forced to resign and who plunged France into even more uncertain times. Only new general elections being called before the end of the year is a realistic possibility.
2025-09-11 18:16:37
LFI even know themselves that their destitution attempt has strictly 0.0000% chance of succeeding. If there was a way for Macron to spin his resignation as a graceful and courageous act to do, he might have been the kind of guy to actually do it. But in the current context, it's impossible. Plus his own camp is not even ready.
2025-09-11 18:47:07
The Parti Socialiste is not happy with Lecornu nomination (and claims to not be afraid of new elections). / Les Republicains wants things to remain more or less the same and doesn't want to work with the Parti Socialiste. / The Rassemblement National is done playing nice and cooperating. / La France Insoumise & its other allies will oppose Lecornu unless he announces the establishment of an Eco-Friendly Communist Caliphate. / A bunch of independent MPs just hate Macron and his party. This market is probably a bit underpriced at the moment. There is a solid chance that Lecornu doesn't survive this year.
2025-09-17 09:57:07
Olivier Faure, who is the leader of the Parti Socialiste, just announced that he doesn't want to negotiate with Lecornu. Doesn't look super good for Lecornu. Rallying the support of the Parti Socialiste is (was?) his main objective.
2025-09-17 18:23:24
I am French buddy (but not living in France). I have been following French politics very closely for years... "he wants to stay"??? Of course, he has just been nominated... What an insane level of hindsight! "deputies know very well that making dissolutions on call creates instability"??? As if French MPs were all behaving responsibly with France's best interests in mind... Barnier and Bayrou lasted longer than two months??? Well, of course, another "dissolution" wasn't possible at the time... I don't claim that it's all but garanteed that Lecornu will be out quickly, but I still believe that this market remains underpriced. Not hard to understand that lot of parties would prefer new elections than having to save Lecornu & Macron. Which is why most parties are actively preparing their nominations for possible new elections...
2025-09-26 16:50:37
Lecornu has been stalling the whole process like crazy, but we should finally get some clear signals by the end of next week to see whether or not he can survive this political environment (a new government should normally be announced before October 1st). Still not looking good for him, he has already said no to a couple of major things that the Parti Socialiste requested.
2025-10-02 20:37:25
I guess it's because the volume is low, but at this moment in time, this market remains poorly priced. Tomorrow there will be what French media have called a "last chance meeting" between Lecornu and the Parti Socialiste. Today, Olivier Faure has declared (while protesting in the streets) that if nothing changes, his party will vote a "motion de censure" as soon as possible. Some newspapers even report that the Parti Socialiste feels ready and confident for new elections. On the other side, Bruno Retailleau & LR are said to not be happy regarding some of Lecornu's latest announcements as well. You could claim that all of this is just part of normal negotiation tactics, but keep in mind that in the event of a new "dissolution", only Lecornu's party is pretty much guaranteed to lose some seats. Yes, for sure, there is probably a scenario where Locurnu keeps stalling/postponing/delaying every decision he has to make and survives until God knows when. But right now, it's not going well for him.
2025-10-03 12:38:19
Oliver Faure declared: "nothing has fundamentally changed". You are right, he is trying everything he can to survive as PM, and this move clearly improve his odds of doing that. But you are misreading the situation if you truly believe he is safe.
2025-10-04 10:36:04
We are getting very close to a moment of truth. Lecornu should finally announce his government this weekend and pronounce his "politique generale" speech on Tuesday 7th of October. Sure, there is a path for him to survive: LR is getting frustrated with him but they will play the negotiation game and won't directly provoke his downfall. And on the other side of the spectrum, Lecornu might have done enough to convince the Parti Socialiste that France's next budget will include things that they like in it. But there is also a very simple, basic truth: the optics of the Parti Socialiste saving Macron's most loyal soldier would look terrible for them. They are fully aware of that. And since Lecornu has been nominated, pretty much every signal that they have sent has been negative. Olivier Faure announced yersterday a 3-day ultimatum after his meeting with Lecornu. I believe that they want to, and will find a reason to vote a "motion de censure". People should keep in mind that in March 2026, there will be important mayoral elections. And after that, every party will focus on the next presidential election. From a practical point of view, if new general elections were to be held, it's probably better for everyone that they happen soon.
2025-10-04 23:45:09
Lol. This is getting ridiculous. I've increased my October position by 700 shares for an average price of only 4.28c, while in the meantime Olivier Faure has declared: "we are heading straight towards the censure [of the upcoming government]." Journalists have reported that the Parti Socialiste feels ready for new elections and considers submitting their own motion of no confidence. Timing is hardly an issue at the moment; end of October still gives plenty of time for this to happen. I'm really wondering what exactly some of you guys are pricing here. Whether I win or lose in the end, I'm very comfortable with my estimate of the risk&reward at play here.
2025-10-05 00:48:20
Nope, no sell order placed. 12c would still be badly priced.
2025-10-05 13:09:11
Lecornu's primary objective is (was?) to rally the support of the Socialist Party. The RN is doing very well in the polls. It is the only party more or less guaranteed to win seats in the event of dissolution, and this is the solution they publicly defend. Moreover, the centrists will never be able to assume a more or less formal agreement with the RN. There must be a scenario in which the RN is vaguely "constructive" and does not jump at the first motion of censure to bring down Lecornu, which would allow it to survive at least for a while, but it is unlikely. The RN has almost no interest in saving Lecornu. It all depends on the position of the Socialist Party, in my eyes. (translated from French, Polymarket doesn't accept French accents apparently)
2025-10-05 16:52:57
Yes, grosso modo le niveau de pricing que je considerais normal.
2025-10-05 16:54:21
J'aurais dit 50-60% Octobre et autour de 75% Decembre.
2025-10-05 18:20:36
Non, relis bien les regles. 🙃
2025-10-05 19:25:57
Lol. Retailleau is mad about the new government. Bring a coffin for Lecornu. 💀
2025-10-06 07:49:37
It's over for Lecornu. I have to say it. Time to get cocky. It turns out that yes, TheFrenchieBoy, I do know one or two things about French politics.
2025-10-06 08:18:59
I know, I know. But yeah, my whole point since the very beginning was that it was badly priced. And this guy told me that I know nothing about French politics lol. 😆
2025-10-07 13:58:48
Once a budget has been voted... in 2026.
2025-10-07 16:14:30
Le Canard Enchaine claims that French "Prefects" have been told to get ready for legislative elections in November.
2025-10-07 20:30:04
Bro is betting on Lucie Castets. 😭😭💀💀💀
2025-10-07 20:36:27
Macron haven't said anything yet. Attal & Renaissance seem very desperate to try to avoid a new dissolution, but a PM from the PS has realistically no chance of surviving. New elections still the most likely outcome.
2025-10-07 22:52:20
That's correct, indeed.
2025-10-08 09:49:10
That PS-Centrists government is not going to happen based on what Olivier Faurre has just said.
2025-10-08 09:51:13
"A common government with Macron-supporting parties is unthinkable" - Olivier Faurre (PS President)
2025-10-08 13:11:51
It's a given. Not up to her tho.
2025-10-08 14:50:56
In the next few hours, Lecornu will go to the Elysee Palace to report the results of his negociations to Macron. At this very moment, there is zero sign that any form of agreement has been reached or is close to be reached. And in less 4 hours, he will also have an interview on national TV. Very hard to see how another dissolution could be avoided. Gandalf's army perhaps?
2025-10-08 14:59:58
Yeah. Too risky and too uncertain. Macron is not expected to talk today. And tomorrow afternoon/evening, he will be busy with his little Badinter spectacle. An announcement tomorrow morning is possible tho.
2025-10-08 15:03:19
Not Lecornu himself. And LR is strongly against this. Horizons is strongly against as well. Some of Renaissance MPs are strongly against too. And LFI, RN and UDR will vote a "motion de censure" no matter what.
2025-10-08 16:05:23
Mais tu me rapportes les propos du porte-parole du PS la... LFI censura n'importe quel gouvernement qui s'alliera avec les macronistes et les traitera de facho-social-traitres.
2025-10-08 16:13:29
Un gouvernement 100% NFP signifierait une capitulation totale du camp macroniste. Peu probable.
2025-10-08 18:23:57
48h ultimatum... claims a path is possible... doesn't elaborate. Bruh...
2025-10-08 18:40:37
"I've tried everything." - Lecornu
2025-10-08 18:49:43
Truth is that nothing has been solved, but we know that a bunch of parties are really scared of a new legislative election. Logical decision would still be a new general election, but good chance that Macron will still try to appoint a new PM.
2025-10-08 19:55:17
Elysee has confirmed that a new PM will be nominated before Friday evening. October 10th bet is off.
2025-10-08 22:17:58
Le Parisien (a major French newspaper) claims that the new government could be also known before the end of this week and that the "declaration de politique generale" could happen on next Monday. IF this was to be true, this would mean that Macron is attempting for one last time to make this assembly work together, and he would like to see very quickly if this will work. Bets after October 10th would still be on. In favour of the "No" side: various parties and MPs seem REALLY scared of new general elections. In favour of the "Yes" side: as of right now, nothing has fundamentally changed. There is no agreement between main parties about anything.
2025-10-09 09:16:26
Well, I bought my position yesterday, in the middle of the day, it made more sense at the time. If the timeline really unfold as quickly as Le Parisien has claimed, it remains fully possible that a new dissolution is announced before October 17th. It is really not in Macron's interests (and France's for what matters) to stall his decisions. Of course, his new PM might do exactly what Lecornu has done, which is buying time in order to try to survive.
2025-10-09 09:16:42
Will probably readjust my position for this market between Friday and Monday (including liquidating it just to be clear).
2025-10-09 10:23:59
Not impossible. But there are going to be important mayoral elections next year though (in March 2026). And less important Senate elections (in September 2026). After that, all parties will be focused on the next presidential election (in April 2027). I think he would take lot of flak to call a general election less than one year before leaving instead of simply resigning.
2025-10-09 23:42:51
Lot of talks among journalists about Lecornu getting nominated once again... By doing that, Macron would be just gambling on MPs being too scared of new legislative elections and that's it... That would be his whole strategy. Not really convinced personally. Sounds dumb af.
2025-10-10 10:24:36
Macron has invited 17 political leaders from 11 different parties at the same time at the Elysee Palace today. Bro is cooking.
2025-10-10 18:36:17
"Le parti d’Edouard Philippe menace de quitter le [futur] gouvernement, meme dirige par un macroniste" - Le Figaro (Edouard Philippe is mad about Macron considering delaying the reform of the pension system)
2025-10-10 19:49:15
I think Macron went to bed early tonight. Please be respectful and quiet in the meantime.
2025-10-10 19:52:54
Also, thanks guys for Olivier Faure at 83c average.
2025-10-10 21:42:47
No matter what Lecornu does or says, the optics of his nomination are absolutely dreadful. He is one of Macron's "most loyal" soldier and symbolises Macron's willingness to remain in control of the situation. In this context, no party will be enticed to save him and his future government. Especially the Parti Socialiste, which will face great pressure from its allies to vote a no confidence vote with them. New general elections are still very likely. The timeline of everything is of course uncertain at the moment.
2025-10-10 23:52:27
For a motion of no confidence to pass, 288 votes are required. 264 votes are already more or less "guaranteed" (RN+UDR+LFI+EELV+GDR). The 25 remaining ones could come from the PS (69 MPs), LIOT (22 MPs), No Group (9 MPs) and possibly LR (50 MPs) and Horizons (34 MPs). So far, reactions from PS MPs to Lecornu's nomination have been very negative. At the moment, I can't see him surviving the first "motion de censure" he will face.
2025-10-11 14:50:00
Making markets less efficient is a deadly sin in my religion. 😞
2025-10-11 16:32:53
Here we go again. 🤡
2025-10-11 16:55:32
We can't count too much on LR to provoke Lecornu downfall. They are scared of new elections and are addicted to a well-known category of fetish p*rn involving chairs. Some LR MPs might break ranks regardless of the official stance of their party though.
2025-10-11 17:00:10
Regardless of what happens, I don't live in France anymore thankfully. 😌
2025-10-12 13:22:39
Both the RN and EELV will vote for a "motion de censure" dude... The tweets that you have quoted reflect that. This market is almost entirely tied to what the Parti Socialiste does.
2025-10-12 13:56:11
Le RN et l'EELV voteront la censure, on peut parier 100$ si tu veux. C'est juste formule ici de facon a paraitre vaguement "responsable". En gros: "Si Lecornu adhere a notre parti demain, on ne le censurera pas, voyez comme on est raisonnable."
2025-10-12 15:19:57
C'est l'autre marche le 17 octobre lol. Le timing est incertain mais il est pour le moment suffisant pour que tout se decante avant samedi prochain.
2025-10-12 18:26:44
[link removed]
2025-10-12 18:27:37
Je donne pas cher de la duree de vie d'un tel gouvernement honnetement si le tweet que je viens de poster a un semblant de vrai.
2025-10-12 18:29:21
D'ou le fait que la date du 17 octobre reste parfaitement realiste. Si Lecornu doit tomber, ca arrivera (tres) rapidement. Pas dans 3 semaines et 2 jours.
2025-10-12 21:16:22
Antoine Oberdorff, journalist on LCI, claims that a motion of no confidence is now 15 MP votes away to be voted.
2025-10-12 22:51:16
Lecornu II's government is the very last attempt to make the current assembly work together. It is now agreed by all parts involved that if Lecornu's government falls, a new dissolution will be announced. This market is just a bet on whether or not Lecornu can survive the first no confidence vote that he will face.
2025-10-13 00:13:24
At this very moment, I have never been less sure of my bet. It's clear that LR MPs are way too scared of new elections (they are essentially ok to support him unconditionnaly) and Lecornu might give to PS just enough to make them happy (most importantly, the suspension of the pension system reform). But I still believe it won't be enough for the PS, so not selling my shares. They are facing SO MUCH pressure from their allies and voters to vote a no confidence vote because in the end, the new government is essentially "Macron & friends". Couple of PS MPs have already announced that they will vote a "motion de censure". On top of that, depending on its strategy, the PS could actually benefit from new elections.
2025-10-13 08:07:37
As others have said, there won't be another PM if Lecornu's government falls. It is agreed by all parts involved here that if a "motion de censure" is voted, new general elections will be called.
2025-10-13 08:22:50
The scam here is that they might claim that a new "dissolution" would cost even more, for whatever reasons. Hence, they might claim that the reasonable thing is to cave in to Parti Socialiste's requests and just say that a reform is still needed, that budget discussions will have to compensate for the cost of the suspension, etc. Not certain though. I think Renaissance would prefer to propose a form of middle ground on the matter, which won't satisfy the PS.
2025-10-13 10:08:44
Melenchon is just applying pressure to the PS here tho. I don't think he can be absolutely certain of what the PS will do.
2025-10-13 14:45:06
The most important request of the PS is a "total and immediate suspension" of the pension system reform in order for them to not vote a no-confidence motion. The appointment of Maud Bregeon as government's spokeperson and who has, up until very recently, strongly defended the reform, is perceived as a bad signal for the PS. [link removed]
2025-10-13 14:48:56
It would be really silly from Macron to wait more than 24 hours to announce a very obvious and logical decision.
2025-10-13 14:58:08
He can keep appointing new PMs but it is now agreed by all involved parts that if Lecornu's government falls, new general elections will be called.
2025-10-13 15:11:37
But he won't. Unless he wants to go down as the most unpopular and hated president in history or something.
2025-10-14 10:12:23
J'ai le sentiment que c'est devenu du 50-50 cette histoire. Le PS semble reellement hesitant sur quoi faire. La pression sur leurs epaules a l'heure actuelle est maximale. Si le parti veut apparaitre uni (peut-etre qu'ils s'en foutent cela dit), il leur faut logiquement voter la censure.
2025-10-14 13:02:22
Non. Juste une menace.
2025-10-14 20:15:11
In all likelihood, the October 17th and October 31th "Yes" bets are now off. Some PS, LR and independent MPs will probably vote the "motion de censure" but it will most likely not be enough. --- It should be noted that, as it stands right now, LR (more specifically, LR MPs) is more or less committing a political suicide. They negotiated nothing and have nothing to gain by supporting the government. But I doubt that they will change their mind within the next 24 hours. --- The December 31th "Yes" bet might still be on due to the way Lecornu's government has decided to handle the budget discussions. It is 99% certain that the final version of the budget will p*ss off every party. Furthermore, the PS is still threatening to vote a no-confidence vote later on. But the timing is going to become less and less ideal for new general elections. Both the PS and LR will prefer to bet on March 2026 mayoral elections to build up/regain some political momentum.
2025-10-22 14:59:00
That is a funny market but guys... there are more interesting markets to create on French-related matters...
2025-10-22 15:10:10
Will France have adopted a budget by December 31th? Who will be the next mayor of Paris? Will a referendum take place in France in 2026? etc. I can think of many questions that would be more interesting than this one.
2025-10-23 07:52:39
Yeah obviously, Eric Gregoire must be replaced by Emmanuel Gregoire, who is the nominated candidate of the Parti Socialiste.
2025-10-23 08:42:36
"The appeals court, which will examine this request [of conditional release], has two months to make a decision. It is now well known that the average examination time in Paris is three to four weeks." (le Figaro)
2025-10-23 08:45:30
His lawyers have filled a request of "conditional release", which could be granted until his appeal trial next year. But corporatism might prevail here. The people who will rule on this request might be pressured to stand by their colleagues and the institution that they are working for, even though it's a fairly clear case of judicial abuse.
2025-10-23 09:19:42
And for what it's worth... Ian Brossat is also an official candidate.
2025-10-24 08:14:35
The obvious thing that was always going to happen is in fact, happening: nobody is happy with how budget discussions are going. This morning, Olivier Faure (Parti Socialiste president) has issued the following ultimatum: "If there aren't serious changes by next Monday, this government is over." (BFMTV). He is requesting here fiscal measures against wealthy people. Now of course, how much all of this is bluff? Does it really make sense for the Parti Socialiste to vote a "motion de censure" now compared to 10 days ago? Hard to say.
2025-10-24 08:16:17
The important piece of information of today: [link removed]
2025-10-24 15:13:41
Personnally I'm really not sure about how everything will pan out. I've bought a few shares this morning because this market is likely a bit underpriced at the moment. On one side, it does feel a bit too late for the parties involved in this hot mess to pull the plug on their attempt to vote a budget and just accept the necessity of new elections. But at the same time, the scenario where a budget that more or less satisfies every party is voted simply doesn't exist. We should keep in mind that the French Senate will get involved at some point, and as a consequence, the senators will partially ruin all the ongoing negociation efforts taking place in the National assembly. Maybe the Parti Socialiste is realising that its gamble is just too hasardous, and has decided to call it off before it's really too late. I don't know.
2025-10-24 19:22:19
And this market allows you to bet on the fact that the negotiations might fail or that the PS might not be willing to negotiate anymore.
2025-10-24 20:43:16
A kind of a "panic" meeting between different parties representatives was organized today as a result though. I think there is a chance that the PS has realized that, in one way or another, they will end up getting cornered into accepting a bunch of things that they are not ready to take responsability for. Regardless, we will get answers fairly quickly about whether or not it was just a bit of pressure as part of negotiations or a real change of strategy.
2025-10-26 20:09:24
Olivier Faure claims that he is not bluffing (obviously) but he didn't really rev up his threats today. He kind of pushed back his ultimatum deadline actually: "We will know by the end of next week if there is going to be a dissolution or not" & "new elections could take place in November" (his words on LCI). He wants a super wealth tax to get voted, which would allegedly generate even more tax revenue than the old version (the ISF). I have a hard times seeing this assembly agreeing on that. But who knows... For $[link removed] a share, it is worth the gamble imo.
2025-10-27 13:23:45
Il est tout a fait realiste de considerer qu'il cherche simplement a negocier et qu'il se contente d'un entre-deux sur le sujet. Un aspect que je factorise dans mon analyse neanmoins est que je pense qu'il soit peu probable qu'a la fin des fins de ce processus legislatif, le budget qui passera soit vraiment PS-compatible/approved. Vouloir ne pas passer pour un con a l'arrivee en mettant des a present un terme a cette "experience politique" tres incertaine aurait sa logique.
2025-10-27 13:36:04
Pour l'heure, le PS maintient sa pression: Boris Vallaud a affirme sur RTL que "tout etait possible" concernant une censure cette semaine du gouvernement.
2025-10-28 09:04:18
Lecornu's government spokeperson announced today they will oppose "zucman light" wealth tax proposal (which is a proposal from the PS). The PS wanted some form of government support on that measure. Let's see now if it's really a dealbreaker...
2025-10-28 16:45:51
WOW!! Trump odds increased from 20% to 25%! I guess the horrible Burundi-Paraguay war is about to end thanks to Trump!!! 🙌
2025-10-29 09:13:39
I agree that it is almost over for the 31st of October deadline. But that being said, if Lecornu considers that he is politically doomed, he might not wait a formal vote to resign. Even more since yesterday, it has become fairly obvious that the budget that will end up being passed is not the one currently discussed and amended in the National Assembly. So the question here: is the PS really fine with that?
2025-10-29 11:52:54
Trump brought peace to my heart today. 🫶 For that alone, the fair pricing of Yes should be AT MINIMUM 30%!!!
2025-10-30 10:41:42
Trump has instructed the Department of PEACEFUL Wars to resume testing PEACEFUL nuclear weapons. That's MY 2026 Nobel PEACE prize winner RIGHT THERE!!!! 💖💖💖
2025-10-30 20:47:02
I will keep buying NO shares for Trump but only to improve the payout ratio of YES shares because REAL AMERICAN PATRIOTS (I'm just a lame European) rightly deserve to be rewarded for their belief and support in Trump!!!! But deep down, I know that in 2026 the Peace Nobel Prize will be truly his. 👏
2025-10-31 11:51:09
Mherrejon is probably an institutional investor working for a pension fund, hence the big volumes. His clients are in the SAFEST hands. Just follow smart money guys, it is THAT SIMPLE!!! 🙌🙌
2025-10-31 16:30:23
Obviously it's now too late for the October 31th bet to work out, but the situation is still a hot mess at the moment. The tax proposals of the PS are getting discussed and put to a vote today. Olivier Faure met with Sebastien Lecornu today and declared thereafter that: "the meeting didn't result in any progress or agreement". On one side, I don't necessarly sense a strong willingness from the PS to take down the government. Plus general elections in December would less than ideal for various reasons. But on the other side, the PS kind of put themselves in an inextricable situation. They simply don't hold enough power to force the National Assembly and the Senate to adopt a budget that they claim would be "acceptable" according to them.
2025-10-31 21:17:14
The PS is putting most of the blame on the RN (and not on the government) for the failure of getting their tax measures passed. Good signal that in the short term, they are ok to still support Lecornu's government. They didn't threaten to vote a "motion de censure" today.
2025-10-31 21:51:52
(this hot mess is obviously far from being over, next question to answer is: what happens if the first part of the 2026 budget bill is rejected in first reading?)
2025-11-01 21:52:08
Very valid remark but there is the Nobel Prize in "Physiology or Medicine" for those kinds of achievements. But yes, he is also the heavy favourite for that one.
2025-11-07 19:32:49
I guess this is it for Verstappen title chances. 🥲
2025-11-07 21:53:00
Ok, let's be serious 2 sec. This market would already be very loosely priced if Yes-Trump was around 5% and comically generous if it was around 10%. Realistically, the fair price for Yes-Trump is a number around 1% or something. I'm assuming that a bunch of people wrongly believe that if a somewhat solid agreement is reached and implemented in 2026 in the Ukraine-Russia war or in the Israeli-Palestinian war, or even in both conflicts, then Trump has a decent shot at winning it. I could write a 20-page essay on why it won't be enough. The mere stated criteria for the Nobel peace prize practically exclude Trump from the get-go... Plus any significant achievement towards peace in those two conflicts requires Putin or Netanyahu to play a key part, which would make awarding the prize to Trump even more awkward and controversial. More importantly, he is an unpredictable *sitting* president who is ready to say and do wild things that would thereafter reflect terribly on the Nobel laureate committee's judgement and credibility. And the list of arguments for the No-side could go on and on and on... But anyway, thank you all for the guaranteed $1k profit. 😇
2025-11-09 13:00:42
This easily beats every fixed rate product that any bank can offer. Personally my average price is 0.75c, which will translate to a 33% return in the end. And this market has a good chance of getting repriced correctly sooner than the resolution date. But well, if people don't want to profit from a very badly priced market, that's their choice.
2025-11-09 22:13:35
Bud... you are $14k down on your account. Perhaps try having a positive PnL before considering to talk sh*t in the comments section. 😭😭😭😭😭
2025-11-10 08:57:24
Good for you then. And keep doing what you do. 😎🤙 Polymarket needs users just like you.
2025-11-11 01:28:27
That's genuinely great dude. Can't be good at everything though, such is life.
2025-11-16 22:31:47
End of 2026 needs to be added as a deadline. This will be his full last year as president and he has often suggested that he could organize one.
2025-11-18 17:04:59
The guy has to cure first his video games addiction before perhaps getting back to business. 😭
2025-11-18 23:01:37
You have to factor the fact that the incumbent mayor is terrible and was elected due to a fluke of circumstances during Covid.
2025-11-23 15:48:55
The title of this market is so incredibly misleading. It is obvious that Donald Trump will be among the top 5 most searched people on Google in 2025. But this market is not tied to that but instead to Google's non-disclosed methodology regarding trending people. And if we go purely by what they have openly disclosed about their methodology, Trump has basically no shot of being in the top 5 this year. He had both stronger search peaks in 2024 than in 2025 (the assassination attempt & the election win) AND a lower search baseline. In Google's way of viewing things, he is just a popular search query, not a trending one. Fair price for Yes-Trump is probably a number around 5% (still an outside chance since the exact methodology is unknown).
2025-11-24 23:30:37
Click on the link in the rules, go at the bottom of the page, click on Data methodology and read the relevant part, you will understand why total search volume is not what matters here.
2025-11-24 23:32:45
Or alternatively, read the comment I posted below. The title of this market is massively misleading. I got it wrong at first as well.
2025-11-24 23:37:04
But it's not. The accurate title of this market should have been "Top 5 Most Trending People on Google in 2025". And based on what Google has disclosed about their methodology, Trump has basically no shot at being in the top 5.
2025-11-25 20:54:11
I haven't checked that myself, but some people in the comments are claiming that it also excludes dead people, so it would be impossible for Charlie Kirk to figure in the top 5.
2025-11-26 00:56:41
Add Pierre-Jean Chalencon. 🤩
2025-11-27 00:04:33
Median overall PnL of the (current) top 60 "Yes-Trump" holders: 16$ | Median overall PnL of the (current) top 60 "No-Trump" holders: 22,765$
2025-11-27 00:06:44
Average overall win rate of the (current) top 60 "Yes-Trump" holders: 47.59% | Average overall win rate of the (current) top 60 "No-Trump" holders: 62.50%
2025-11-27 00:09:27
(nb: those are very raw data, I didn't attempt to filter bot/algo/hedging trading accounts)
2025-11-27 00:14:34
"No-Trump" holders are significantly more successful traders than "Yes-Trump" holders. Make what you want of this fact.
2025-11-27 00:24:52
Small irrelevant correction: it was actually $22,929 and not $22,765 for "No-Trump" holders.
2025-11-28 00:21:18
Holding a "No" position for Trump for the market "Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025".
2025-11-28 00:23:22
If those are total search volume data, you have to keep in mind that this is not what matters for this market.
2025-11-28 00:30:25
Based on what we know about Google's methodology for this market, it's hard if not impossible to see how could Trump be in the top 5 this year. I will repeat myself once again but this market should have been titled "Top 5 Most Trending People on Google in 2025" instead of "Top 5 Most Searched People...".
2025-11-28 00:31:45
Polymarket analytics. I extracted the top 100 holders of both "Yes-Trump" and "No-Trump" and then manually scraped the PnL and win rate data of the respective top 60 holders. I wanted to make sure that I wasn't missing something obvious that potentially better traders would take into account. Doesn't seem to be the case.
2025-11-28 00:32:05
From Polymarket analytics. I looked at the top 100 holders of both "Yes-Trump" and "No-Trump" and then manually scraped the PnL and win rate data of the respective top 60 holders. I wanted to make sure that I wasn't missing something obvious that potentially better traders would take into account. Doesn't seem to be the case.
2025-11-28 02:16:24
Click on the link in the rules, go at the bottom of the page, click on "Data Methodology" and read the relevant part. You will understand that (according to Google), what matters here is the year-over-year search peak/surge metrics differential.
2025-11-28 17:20:48
race week
2025-11-28 21:51:40
This 👏 Market 👏 Is 👏 Not 👏 About 👏 Total 👏 Search 👏 Volume.
2025-11-29 22:19:46
Yeah, I'm aware of that. Obviously, there has to be a search volume score/factor/threshold that still comes into play in order to avoid ending up with Mr. Random Bumf*ck topping the table. And maybe, if for some unknown reason, Google reprocessed/underweighted Biden's 2020 election week search data, it could explain why Biden's first year as president was still perceived as a "surging"/stronger year by Google compared to his previous one. Regardless of that, Trump didn't appear in the top 10 in those years (2019, 2020, 2021) despite solid peaks and high volumes each year. So whatever the ranking methology actually is, Trump's 2024 insanely high basis should make it impossible to appear in the top 5 this year. Based on what we know at least...
2025-11-30 00:56:36
Lmao, why are there so many Bucharest Mayoral Election markets? Romanians are all gambling addicts or what?
2025-11-30 23:21:14
Click on the link in the rules, go at the bottom of the page, click on "Data methodology" and then read the relevant part. What you have just described simply reflects greater search volume, which is not what matters.
2025-12-02 23:12:17
Huge 30k "Yes-Trump" liquidation from a top holder. The buy-side for "Yes-Trump" has been pretty weak for days. Based on publicly available information, "Yes-Trump" should have never been priced this high tbh. 10% would still be generous.
2025-12-02 23:13:35
And I will repeat it once again: the title of this market is misleading and is not about total search volume.
2025-12-03 19:54:47
Oh no the Grosse Koalition n*898416 might collapse. Wonder what will be the next one.
2025-12-04 00:35:25
The title of this market is misleading. Click on the link in the rules, go at the bottom of the page, click on “Data Methodology” and read the relevant part. You will understand why Trump has almost no chance of figuring in the top 5 this year.
2025-12-05 21:53:07
Who needs a Nobel Peace Prize when you got a FIFA PEACE PRIZE??? 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅
2025-12-08 01:21:09
Lol. What would be your rationale for “yes”?
2025-12-08 09:19:11
10 years ago yeah... It didn't help to get even a rough idea where the plane crashed unfortunately. We just know that it crashed in the Indian ocean, West of Australia basically...
2025-12-29 20:44:59
Fin 2026/debut 2027, les sondages commenceront a devenir regulier, il y aura candidat X ou Y qui fera une percee dans les sondages et c'est la que ce marche deviendra interessant/fun.
2025-12-30 00:09:28
700$ pour un credibiliser un roleplay gogol pro-LFI. You are really committed to the bit.
2025-12-30 16:02:11
Le total "droite" en France (RN+REC+LR+DVD) represente un chiffre autour de 45%. Le total "gauche" un chiffre autour de 30%. Les 25% restant sont diverses tendances centristes et quelques partis ideologiquement plus flous. Ton candidat anti-France doit unifier l'entierete de la gauche derriere lui plus la quasi totalite des centristes afin d'esperer gagner. Cela n'arrivera pas mec.
2025-12-30 16:31:50
Qu'est-ce que tu fous sur Polymarket si tu es non-ironiquement de gauche mdr ?
2025-12-30 18:17:51
Europennes 2024 (dernier scrutin 100% national): RN+REC+LR = 44.09% (46.34% si on inclut Jean Lassalle) 2022 est deja une autre epoque mec.
2025-12-30 18:22:43
Europeennes 2024: PS+FI+EELV+PCF+LO = 32.07%
2025-12-30 18:31:34
Un paquet de demeures centristes ont vote LFI pour faire barrage au RN en 2024 car il etait connu d'avance que la gauche & LFI ne pourraient pas gouverner ensuite.
2026-01-01 21:36:33
Eric Ciotti is obviously underpriced. In July 2024, his own party (UDR) won all three legislative constituencies covering the municipality of Nice. Estrosi's party (Horizons) came third in all three. Claims have been reported in French media and newspapers that a non-published poll was conducted and showed that Ciotti was in a very favourable position to win. On a national level, centrist parties (including the one of Estrosi) have sold their last bit of credibility to avoid new general elections and yet still failed to pass a budget for 2026. There is a path for Estrosi to win if he fully rally left-wing voters behind him but he is really not a politician popular with left-wing voters to begin with. This is AT MINIMUM a 50%-50% market (between Ciotti & Estrosi). And 60-65% in favour of Ciotti would seem fair to me.
2026-01-01 21:44:02
And there is a mistake in the market descption btw. The municipal elections will happen in March 2026, not May 2026.
2026-01-02 22:09:56
Dumb bot pricing lol. As if Estrosi's chances of winning improved by 4% over the last 24 hours. No French media labels Christian Estrosi as the clear, undisputed, favourite to win this race, because... well... he is not. 69% for Estrosi is obvious bad pricing.
2026-01-03 12:48:05
Bombing COMMIES in the third-world is the greatest service to HUMANITY that a man can do!!! 🤩 The Norwegian Nobel committee will have no choice other than awarding the prize to DONALD J TRUMP now! 🫡
2026-01-04 01:21:58
Some bro thinks that Trump will now start kidnaping every communist dictator in the world lol.
2026-01-05 00:28:38
Your strategy is mystifying. Why are you injecting that much liquidity in this market? Do you know anything about French politics?
2026-01-07 17:44:54
Betting on “No” would be tempting but frankly, what do I know about Iran?
2026-01-08 01:56:21
The timing would be awful. Parties are now focused on the upcoming mayoral elections. And new general elections would mean no budget for a while. It was of course incredibly irresponsible of centrist parties & LR to refuse to push for new elections when it was logical to do so (last September / October). The situation is messy and this government is pathetic but I think it will survive at least until March.
2026-01-09 18:57:55
"Sebastien Lecornu explore l’hypothese d’une dissolution" - le Figaro The PM has asked the Interior Minister to examine the feasibility of new general elections at the same time of the mayoral elections. Probably to apply some pressure on the parties that have no interest in a new dissolution right now to be honest.
2026-01-10 22:43:22
I would much prefer the opposite, but unfortunately, I don't see a new dissolution happening in the very short-term. At the moment, the PS wants its stupid gamble to work out and then to claim that they won and that their strategy was the right one all along. And LR has already committed a political seppuku and is scared to death to return to the polls. I think this coalition of the weak should survive for now.
2026-01-15 00:59:29
J'ai augmente ma position apres avoir poste ce message. L'essentiel du bid volume a 32 c'est moi. Et je n'ai strictement aucun ordre de vente de soumis. 🙃
2026-01-16 10:39:37
Sebastien Lecornu will make an announcement today. It seems likely that the 49.3 article of the French Constitution will be used by the government to pass the 2026 budget. The PS has already sent signals that they will be ok with it. And LR is a non-factor here. A new dissolution is very unlikely in the short-term. Especially before March mayoral elections.
2026-01-17 18:12:13
"Mainstream" parties (LR & PS) won't get wiped out since control of local administrative echelons ("mairie", "departement" and "region") is the one thing that they can hang to these days. And the incumbency advantage is at its strongest for mayoral elections.
2026-01-19 18:53:34
Ryanair is valued at $35 billion right now. Acquiring a majority stake would likely cost him at least $20-25 billion. I think he would much prefer invest his money into his existing companies (and particularly into his Mars dreams) than to invest in a European airline operating in a hostile economic zone towards him.
2026-01-25 21:30:47
In a vaguely similar setting, a MP candidate from Ciotti's party is, as we speak, in a very good position to flip a LR-held seat in Haute-Savoie and the score of the LR-Renaissance backed candidate has dramatically crumbled. It's worth what it's worth (not much) but it's still a good signal ahead of March 2026 mayoral elections for UDR-RN candidates. I expect a poll for Nice mayoral election to be released in February and to confirm that Ciotti is in a solid position to win.
2026-01-30 15:04:19
Alcaraz or Djokovic winning a Calendar Grand Slam this year is not happening. Yes-None is a risk-free bet.
2026-01-30 18:56:42
Lil' Xi. 🥺
2026-02-07 02:34:08
It would be so easy to manipulate this market for anyone who has a very big account. Insane to put money on that..
2026-02-09 17:40:46
It's over for Jean-Marc Governatori. 🥀 He has officially rallied Eric Ciotti. It is a VERITABLE SWING MOMENT in this NICE CAMPAIGN. 🫨
2026-02-09 17:46:36
Alonso over 10% lol. Newey cultists have drunk too much flow-vis. 🥴
2026-02-16 17:47:58
Il faut néanmoins avoir à l'esprit qu'Estrosi est maintenu artificiellement haut (et donc, Ciotti, artificiellement bas), par un compte (Rituximab) qui a investi 7,875$ sur Estrosi et qui continue de placer de "gros" ordres dans cette direction ("gros" relativement à la taille de ce marché). Je n'ai aucune idée de la stratégie du compte. J'ai un doute sur le fait que le type soit Français et possède une connaissance fine de la politique française (et niçoise qui plus est).
2026-02-16 22:07:53
J'ai longuement étudié la question, pris en compte tout ce qu'il était possible de prendre en compte, et le scénario que je considère probable à l'instant T est que Ciotti fasse autour de 35-40% au premier tour, Estrosi autour de 25-30% et que la liste d'union de la gauche se qualifie facilement et se maintienne au second tour. Dans cette configuration-là, je pense qu'il sera difficile pour Estrosi de l'emporter.
2026-02-17 17:39:29
This market was very clearly mispriced. Only surprise here is that the left-wing unity list seems quite weak. Ciotti needs this list to be a bit stronger to be really safe. Otherwise, this Cluster17 poll is very in line with the scenario I had in my head.
2026-02-17 17:43:07
Les marchés sur la politique française pricés par des bots et des Américains qui ont lu une page Wikipédia sont du pain béni. 🤤
2026-02-17 18:19:55
Alors qu'en vrai, pris dans son contexte, et compte tenu de l'évolution de l'actualité politique depuis, ce vieux sondage était plutôt un signal positif pour Ciotti. 🤭
2026-02-17 18:31:14
Yes. Le fair price pour Ciotti à l'heure actuelle est probablement un chiffre autour de 65-75%. Il semble en bonne position pour gagner mais deux facteurs significatifs de risque subsistent : d'abord, Cluster17 n'est pas vraiment le meilleur institut de sondage de France et par conséquent, ce sondage mériterait tout de même d'être confirmé par un autre sondage. Et comme souligné précédemment, le sondage d'aujourd'hui n'écarte pas totalement le risque d'un duel au second tour, ce qui offrirait de biens meilleures chances à Estrosi de l'emporter.
2026-02-18 10:24:38
Rager de cette sorte est inutile sale gauchiste. Même si tu as acheté à un prix de gogol, tu as encore tes chances oui. 💪
2026-02-18 10:39:35
Fais confiance à ton cercle social de RSAistes dans ce cas. Le duel Damiano-Estrosi au second tour s'annonce serré mais oui, Estrosi devrait l'emporter. 💪
2026-02-18 19:03:46
Pour espérer gagner, Estrosi doit plus ou moins voir les deux conditions suivantes se réaliser : 1) Éviter une triangulaire voire une quadrangulaire et se retrouver en duel simple face à Ciotti au second tour. 2) Bénéficier d'un report des voix presque parfait de la part des électeurs de gauche et d'extrême-gauche. En étant généreux sur les probabilités et en donnant 50% de chance de se réaliser à chacune de ces deux conditions, il est assez évident que ce marché reste mal pricé. But well, don't trust me and good luck everyone. 🙃
2026-02-23 17:54:39
BFMTV is organising debates between main candidates in four big French cities: Marseille, Lyon, Nice and Paris. For the first two debates (Marseille and Lyon), they have released a poll one day before the debate. So maybe we will get a new poll for Nice mayoral election on March 1st (from Elabe polling institute in all likelihood).
2026-02-23 19:35:43
SpaceX acquired xAi. This changes absolutely nothing for this market.
2026-02-24 19:14:09
Poorly written but it's just a typo. The market rules are still clear enough. What matters are the results of the 2026 mayoral election in Lyon.
2026-02-25 13:19:09
Two polls incoming actually. 🫢
2026-02-25 20:36:49
[link removed]
2026-02-25 20:38:42
It's so over for Estrosi bros. 😭
2026-02-25 23:35:41
Tweet got deleted but basically, a very favorable poll for Ciotti will be released soon.
2026-02-27 17:42:32
This market could now be rephrased as "Do you believe Juliette Chesnel-Leroux when she repeatedly affirms that she will maintain her list for the runoff?" Because Estrosi has basically no shot at winning this if it's a three-way runoff. And I don't really see any reason to believe that it won't be the case. 30% for Estrosi at this stage is generous.
2026-02-28 18:47:11
There are multiple reasons to believe that she won't. First, her whole campaign messaging consists in saying that Estrosi is just equally as bad as Ciotti. Second, it's a joint list between several parties: the non-withdrawal principle has allegedly already been discussed and agreed upon. Third, she said that even if she is sitting in the opposition, she was going to be useful and that was what she did in the past. Fourth, there are personal financial considerations at stake (councillors get paid). Fifth, she said many times that she won't.
2026-02-28 19:05:26
Despite all of these reasons, I do believe that there is a possibility that she might be pressured/ordered to withdraw her list by the national direction of her party. But as you said, there is zero guarantee that it would make a difference, which would be even more embarrassing. The transfer of votes from LFI voters to Estrosi can only be relatively poor (Estrosi has called for the dissolution of LFI). On top of that, from a purely strategic point of view, it would be quite smart for left-wing parties to weaken Edouard Philippe and his party (for which Estrosi is the vice-president) ahead of next year presidential elections.
2026-02-28 19:07:16
What piece of news triggered the spike for Yes exactly?
2026-02-28 19:52:36
What do you think people don't get? I'm confused myself about this market lol.
2026-02-28 19:53:56
But it was a "joint operation" though... 🤔
2026-02-28 19:58:01
Do we know if 100% of the missiles that hit Khamenei residence were from Israel's forces?
2026-02-28 21:19:47
Ciotti gagnerait confortablement même en duel (55-45) dans le sondage OpinionWay mdr.
2026-02-28 23:14:17
Nah, it's probably due to some military exercises sh*t in the sea.
2026-03-01 03:30:10
Where have you been read that lol? It's very unclear who struck what at the moment.
2026-03-01 03:36:40
If this market were to be resolved based only on the following sentence: "Actions of force carried out by United States government forces must directly lead to Khamenei’s removal from power.", then it would be mad to not resolve this market by "Yes". We know it was a joint military operation. We know that the US did not simply provided assistance and intelligence. We know where the US military bases are. We know that both the US and Israel struck multiple targets. And we know that Khamenei is now dead. Claiming that the role of the US was merely "indirect" would be absurd, regardless of who exactly pushed the button of the fatal missile.
2026-03-01 03:40:23
But of course, I get that, if Israelis were specifically in charge of striking Khamenei compound, it does make the resolution of this market kinda awkward...
2026-03-01 16:24:03
This market is just a proxy for a US military intervention in Cuba or people have something else in mind? Venezuela has already been "dealt with" and I think a ground operation in Mexico is completely unrealistic.
2026-03-04 23:28:42
Comment prédire quoi que ce soit dans une ville qui a élu un putain de député communiste en 2024 ? 🥴
2026-03-06 17:51:10
Pas idéal ce genre d'histoire à une semaine du premier tour mdrr. [link removed]
2026-03-08 14:50:03
6 cars not classified, 3 virtual safety cars, 1 crash into barriers, and yet... 0 safety car... A bit infuriating to have lost this one... Thankfully I don't bet big amounts on sport.
2026-03-08 18:37:16
It's fairly priced honestly.
2026-03-12 20:56:51
It might get somewhat close but I still think Aulas will win this.
2026-03-13 22:14:37
For the sake of clarity, the desc ription of this market should have mentioned that the sprint race does not count.
2026-03-16 15:28:06
Which country people think of realistically?
2026-03-16 16:52:56
If it has to be between Russell and Antonelli, it will be Russell, and it won't be close.
2026-03-18 08:22:30
Estrosi more or less lost LR official support lmao. 😂
2026-03-19 08:31:46
Grégoire est à 72%, Doucet à 83% et Payan à 98%. 0.72*0.83*0.98 = 0.585. Possibilité évidente d'àrbitrâge. Le Yes est surévalué par rapport aux trois autres marchés. Vous pouvez acheter du No ici et la position équivalente sur un ou plusieurs des trois candidats.
2026-03-19 08:51:58
What Yes-buyers have been smoking today?
2026-03-19 17:29:54
Le fait que les candidats soient correctement pricés ou non n'est pas le sujet. Je constate juste que les marchés ne sont pas alignés entre eux. Il y a moyen pour ceux qui le souhaitent de configurer un pari sans risque ou à risque très limité. Je l'aurais peut-être fait si je n'étais pas en voyage en ce moment.
2026-03-20 11:27:21
Dark-Telescreen and his 52k Estrosi shares. Bro really thinks he has found gold. 😭💀
2026-03-22 14:36:24
Je ferai un don à l'UDR en plus de ma cotisation en l'honneur du patriote bxtbxt, qui a généreusement mis son argent à disposition des forces ciottistes. 🫡
2026-03-22 15:51:24
Oui. Estrosi va conserver la mairie et Ciotti va devenir Comte de Nice pour un mandat limité dans le temps de 1000 ans. La rivalité entre désormais dans une nouvelle dimension. 😳
2026-03-23 03:18:13
Je ne me suis effectivement pas soucié de l'illiquidité de ce marché. Je savais que des sondages finiraient par sortir en février et que ces derniers démontraient que le marché était factuellement mal pricé, ce qui me donnerait ensuite de la marge pour réviser ma position si ma conviction changeait. Mais tous les signaux n'ont cessé de se mettre au vert pour Ciotti, donc j'ai continué d'augmenter ma position via un autre compte. 8k$ de gagné au total grâce à notre king du Sud. 🫡
2026-03-25 02:00:48
For what it's worth, Ciotti will officially become Nice mayor on Friday 27th of March.
2026-03-27 10:11:11
Wtf is this market? I can't even find the beginning of a rumour about that.
2026-03-28 12:07:20
With Russell at 50% and Antonelli at 30%, this means that people think Antonelli has a 37% chance of beating Russell over the course of the entire season. He is obviously overpriced. People should look at their 2025 H2H end-of-season stats.
2026-03-29 06:24:21
Don't write “bla bla” when you have already dumped your Antonelli shares lol.
2026-04-08 10:19:20
Your account looks insane but I guess it works. 🤷♂️
2026-04-09 16:34:39
Perhaps. And maybe as a consequence, Yes shares will surge momentarily. But fully controlling Kharg Island would be a hot mess for the US. It would have a significant human cost without necessarily achieving much in terms of geopolitical goals. Hence, it won't happen imo.
2026-04-12 16:48:23
It would be smart for some of you guys to realise that the blockade announcement makes a territorial takeover of Kharg Island even more unlikely.
2026-04-12 17:20:43
Has there even been a rumour about that lol?
2026-04-17 19:11:29
Quite embarrassing of me to not have bought more No shares tbh.
2026-04-20 01:02:47
Those market rules have been poorly written since they don't clarify whether or not a sabbatical period would qualify. Him not finishing his current contract but not announcing a definitive retirement could be a possible outcome.
2026-04-21 20:26:13
No is so free money lol. It's glaringly obvious that Trump doesn't want to take that risk.
2026-04-23 01:48:17
Very interesting market! 👀 But too early to enter a position at the moment.
2026-04-23 09:38:38
It could go two ways really: 1) Since the 2027 presidential election will be right around the corner, parties might be ok to adopt a fairly "politically-neutral" budget and claim that it doesn't really matter since they will be able to modify it through a "budget rectificatif" the following year. 2) Since France is in a pretty terrible financial situation, some unpopular decisions might have to be included in the budget bill and parties might not want to take responsibility for those decisions right before the election, preventing the adoption of a budget in due time. More or less a 50%/50% market at the moment imo.
2026-04-23 10:18:44
Rumour is that Red Bull has actually a fairly good engine and that they will bring some significant upgrades in Miami. I mean... I don't believe in Max's chances at all but well... it is not 100.00% fully completely definitely over yet.
2026-04-23 15:56:45
ANY MINUTE NOW 🤯
2026-04-23 16:15:19
"Qui se qualifiera pour le second tour ?" est probablement l'un des plus intéressants à proposer désormais. La liste definitive sera publié très tard, donc avoir ce marché avant fin 2026/début 2027 serait idéal. Un peu tôt pour le moment sans doute.
2026-04-23 20:06:06
So many arguments could be used to explain why it will not happen. But one that I've just read is the fact that the U.S. has already depleted a concerning amount of its stockpile of defensive missiles. According to the CSIS: between 50% and 80% of its THAAD interceptors have already been used, and between 45% and 60% of its Patriot missiles (estimated pre-war inventory). And such an operation would require... well... quite a lot of defensive ammunition...
2026-04-23 21:57:32
Cependant... 😏
2026-04-24 08:26:30
Which is the right thing to do. Don't trust me obviously. Trust the data. Trust the facts. Trust the stats. Trust logics. Etc. 🙃
2026-04-24 09:22:02
Oil storage facilities on Kharg Island are said to be close to full. If the U.S. wanted to seize Kharg Island to cripple the Iranian economy, there is hardly a point doing so now. Iran is struggling to export its oil and the longer the blockade goes, the bigger the storage issue will become.
2026-04-24 14:33:05
Probably... not? Q1 started decent. The real GDP growth target for 2026 is around 1.0%. The case for a recession seems weak at the moment.
2026-04-24 16:00:01
And of course... another year where it did not happen.
2026-04-28 18:56:15
Not sure if there has ever been a military incident between two NATO countries that would qualify under these rules. 🤔
2026-04-28 19:26:59
Polymarket has one dev and he is currently working on the exchange upgrade, so forget about it. 🙂
2026-04-28 19:32:08
42% George - 33% Kimi translates to a 44% chance that Kimi beats George over the course of the season lol.
2026-04-30 09:26:41
A “troll” post on social media obviously doesn't qualify under these rules. 🧐
2026-04-30 09:50:12
Lol what? 🧐 This market requires more than an AI -generated picture posted on [link removed] for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Just stating the obvious here.
2026-04-30 09:58:54
Obviously no. Nothing about this post suggests “that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" [...]”.
2026-04-30 10:18:56
Well, yeah, he has to announce that this will be the official position of the U.S. We are very far from this threshold with this AI-slop post.
2026-04-30 11:02:31
Bruh, this is not a mention market.
2026-05-01 18:41:03
Let's add July and August and September etc. so we can get 10% per month till the end of the year. 🤑
2026-05-02 23:10:39
Kimi *P1-to-P10-TURN-1* Antonelli will win this. I was wrong all along. 😭
2026-05-02 23:40:11
J'aimerais trop être un Pigasse believer bordel. 😕
2026-05-03 00:42:19
What is the rationale behind this market lol? Is this particular Emirate known to have political disagreements with the other Emirates? I don't know that much about the UAE.
2026-05-03 20:07:54
Antonelli has brutally drive-mogged Russell this weekend wtf. 😭
2026-05-03 22:23:47
Sans doute à tort mais en vrai, je ne peux pas m'empêcher de penser que la justice politique française pourrait factoriser dans sa décision le fait que Bardella ait de meilleures chances que Marine de remporter la présidentielle, et par conséquent, rendre une décision favorable pour Marine.
2026-05-06 16:42:48
Lydie Massart seems really underpriced here. Strong chance that she eats the other three and wins. 🧐
2026-05-06 17:45:20
Faure pousse vraiment pour cela dit. La participation du PS est cruciale afin qu'elle puisse avoir lieu.
2026-05-07 09:45:15
Faure n'y a pas renoncé puisqu'il s'est affiché avec tous les pro-primaires / candidats ce mardi. Je ne suis pas un expert du microcosme socialiste, mais tant qu'il n'y aura pas de candidat au centre gauche un peu consensuel et bénéficiant d'une avance dans les sondages, j'imagine que l'idée de la primaire va continuer d'être défendue.
2026-05-13 21:10:00
Personally, the start of this season reminds me the start of the 2023 season, with Perez being hyped as a championship contender by ton of commentators. People just take the race results at face value, without factoring any bit of context in their analysis. George is obviously still the favourite for this season, even though I must admit that, when a bunch of external things keep not going your way, it creates a risk of a mental downward spiral.
2026-05-15 08:27:38
Yes has no business being around 15%. For previous expiry dates, Yes shares mostly traded at around 5%, which is probably already generous pricing. The Iran war has settled down and was never get used to trigger Article 5 anyway. And a simple military incident between Russia and a NATO country would probably not be enough to trigger it. It would need to be something very serious. More importantly, it's in the very best interest of Russia to make sure it doesn't happen.
2026-05-15 11:30:18
Le Big G salive déjà à l'idée de sa future victoire. 🤤
2026-05-17 16:02:45
J'en avais proposé un sympa je trouve mais il n'est visiblement pas passé (le RN/UDR obtiendra-t-il un groupe au Sénat en 2026 ?). Tu peux le reposter tel quel ou le reposter modifié si tu veux.
2026-05-17 16:30:34
Top, j'ai mis un petit like. Il me paraît solidement rédigé en plus. L'autre que tu as proposé est intéressant également.
2026-05-21 23:51:05
This market can now be resolved. Alcaraz is not on the official Roland Garros entry list. It is now strictly impossible for him to win a calendar grand slam this year.
2026-05-22 23:28:50
Le Big Centrist Short c'est de se positionner No Philippe / No Attal, étant donné qu'il est plus ou moins convenu qu'un des deux finisse par renoncer si certaines conditions sont réunies.
2026-05-24 22:17:34
My god, Antonelli keeps making mistakes that go unpunished and Russell gets zero luck on his side. It starts getting mad to watch.
2026-05-27 00:48:26
Le Pigasse Dream se concrétise. 🤩 [link removed]
2026-05-31 01:37:13
Castex arrive pour se castagner et tout casser. Le casting de rêve qui s'annonce. 🤤 [link removed]
2026-05-31 02:24:30
Stuff like the lost drone in Romania is not even remotely close to the threshold for which a NATO country would consider invoking article 5.
2026-05-31 12:53:53
Well, it's now closer to 50-50% post DNF. But you clearly haven't watched the races if you truly believe that Antonelli's current lead in the championship is a proper reflection of his on-track performances. Various F1 commentators and people inside the paddock still consider Russell as the favourite, even with his current points deficit. No Antonelli / Yes Russell is a really good bet at the moment.
2026-06-02 08:49:48
The guy behind this list of candidates must have a serious crush on Clémence Guetté. 🤨
2026-06-04 01:09:00
No one believes my bro Jeff here? 😢
2026-06-07 19:59:40
Well... this bet has clearly not gone my way so far: 6 completed races out of 22 and a 68-point lead for Antonelli. Russell can't really afford any additional bad luck now. I would say that he has to bring down the point deficit to 40 or so before the summer break to still have a decent shot at this. He has 5 races to do that. If he doesn't, it's probably GG Antonelli.
2026-06-07 20:50:23
Roussel aux alentours de 50-55% est probablement sous-évalué à l'heure actuelle. Le texte de la direction du PCF a récolté 62% des voix aujourd'hui contre 25% pour le texte davantage pro-NFP. Roussel a déjà exclu de soutenir deux des candidats de gauche les plus probables (Mélenchon et Glucksmann). Et je doute que le PCF serait particulièrement enthousiaste à l'idée de soutenir Hollande s'il devait être le candidat du PS. Roussel a par ailleurs déjà été candidat en 2022, n'a aucun souci à se faire concernant les parrainages et a déjà exprimé son souhait d'être candidat en 2027. L'incertitude restante dépend essentiellement de l'organisation ou non d'une primaire à gauche et de son résultat éventuel (on pourrait imaginer le PCF se ranger derrière Ruffin par exemple). 70-80% me semblerait un meilleur pricing en l'état actuel des choses.
2026-06-09 07:32:41
Master Poulet officiellement candidat. 😳😳
2026-06-09 14:28:39
Yes-Bouamarane et Yes-Bertrand. Bro mise uniquement sur la crème de la crème de la politique française. 😳
2026-06-11 17:53:28
3 new deadlines lmao. This market is a gift that keeps on giving.
2026-06-12 23:59:45
Iceland has been doing fine all those years while being out of the EU. You would think Icelanders will want to keep things as it is.
2026-06-16 01:42:51
Lol, so the explanation of why Russell struggled during his last stint in Barcelona is because Mercedes f*cked up the front wing adjustment on his car. But thankfully, it didn't cost him any point this time.
2026-06-16 02:23:56
Can we talk about the fact that the "Multiple candidates" option makes zero sense or not?
2026-06-17 15:44:55
Some bro somehow thinks that we live in 1982. 💀
2026-06-17 19:20:30
I agree that the sentence you quoted hardly makes sense. For the goal tally, it's any goal scored during regular time or extended time, penalty included, and shootout excluded. I think it's quite straightforward.
2026-06-17 21:36:40
Hum... yeah... obviously, he is going to be convicted of homicide. 🤨
2026-06-18 10:24:39
Not looking super promising so far. Lecornu is already talking about adopting a budget "by February 2027".
2026-06-20 00:42:55
Rebuilding has begun and a new launch by the end of the year is still the target at the moment. "Jeff Bezos and Dave Limp, Blue Origin’s owner and CEO, spoke about the pad rebuild at the VivaTech conference in Paris. Limp said Launch Complex 36 has been cleared of all debris, and crews “started the reconstruction” of the pad earlier this week. Both reiterated their earlier statements that Blue Origin will fly the New Glenn rocket again before the end of the year"
2026-06-20 18:01:08
16% Hamilton? Ferrari fans have lot of confidence in the next Ferrari upgrade.
2026-06-20 19:17:00
You don't know how to read buddy? I'm already positioned No-Antonelli, Yes-Russell and No-Hamilton. I'm waiting till the start of the Austrian GP weekend to perhaps buy more No-Hamilton shares.
2026-06-20 21:55:47
Useless to ask someone to raise his existing position on Polymarket. I have already put my money where my mouth is and I could have zero cash left. But anyway, I don't exclude the possibility of Hamilton getting even more badly priced in the coming days/weeks. People often overreact during and right after each race weekend. Hence I'm not doing it now.
2026-06-21 12:56:59
There will be only 5 Joe Rogan episodes at most until the end of June. Elon might want to be cautious after SpaceX recent IPO regarding his media commitments, so SpaceX doesn't immediately become a meme stock. Plus Elon might be quite busy these days (oversighting Cursor acquisition might take some of his time?). I'm going to take the risk and say no.
2026-06-23 14:36:45
What kind of scenario "Multiple Candidates" buyers have in their head wtf?
2026-06-24 12:24:10
Who could realistically challenge him? 🤔
2026-06-24 12:25:43
Doubt IKEA will want to do business there. 🤨
2026-06-28 14:57:02
Some people here genuinely believed that Ferrari & Lewis had a shot at the title. 😭 Their brains need to be studied. 💀
2026-06-28 19:32:55
Don't do that bruh. 💀 Every F1 commentator is talking about Silverstone being a power track that will advantage Mercedes yet again.
2026-06-28 23:44:52
Marginally at most. To get things worse, Ferrari had issues with their engine today. And Mercedes still has car upgrades in their pipeline and are allowed to get an engine upgrade on top of that. Ferrari catching up Mercedes this year is most certainly a pipe dream.
2026-06-29 21:26:38
Which seems unrealistic imo. This market seems just a deadline play to me.
2026-06-29 22:56:35
Bit pointless tbh. Macron will finish his second term, there is no uncertainty.
2026-06-30 10:14:55
Yeah, the reason is that markets get mispriced all the time on Polymarket. That's why I'm +$9k up. Good luck to you tho. 🫡
2026-07-02 13:17:22
Do you think he has a successor in mind if that scenario happens?
2026-07-05 09:30:15
Suite au congrès du PCF, il est plus ou moins acté que Fabien Roussel sera candidat en 2027. L'idée d'une « clause de revoyure » de sa candidature ayant même été rejetée.
2026-07-05 13:26:01
Situation encore très difficile à lire pour le moment. Il me semblerait logique que la proposition n°1 défendue par Olivier Faure et soumise au vote des militants du Parti Socialiste l'emporte (car plus clair et s'inscrivant davantage dans une logique d'union de la gauche). Par conséquence, l'organisation d'une seconde primaire unitaire de la gauche continuerait d'être la position officielle du PS. Sans garantie absolue qu'elle ait vraiment lieu néanmoins...
2026-07-05 13:29:35
Cela étant dit, il s'est développé une forme de psychose autour des primaires ouvertes en France, donc la proposition n°2 va nécessairement convaincre un certain nombre de militants PS. Si elle devait gagner, ça signerait évidemment la mort de la primaire unitaire. Réponse le 9 juillet.
2026-07-05 19:14:18
Mercedes has still the fastest car, they have still major upgrades incoming, and Leclerc is not actually a dogshit driver. This is not the only weekend of the season where he will outscore Hamilton. This is still very much a Russell versus Antonelli championship.
2026-07-05 20:49:23
Don't be too emotionally invested in this my bud.
2026-07-05 21:24:39
If you check the other markets that I'm invested in, you will notice that I leave comments on most of them. Sharing your rationale and being open to discussion doesn't equate to ragebaiting. Hence you are too emotionally invested in this my bud.
2026-07-06 07:55:26
This market can now be resolved.
2026-07-06 10:42:00
Les losers prennent le train Castex, les winners le caddie Michel-Édouard Leclerc. 😎
2026-07-06 11:11:59
Mathilde Panot à +10%. Il faut avoir une vision de zinzin sur la meuf pour y croire à ce point. 😵💫
2026-07-06 17:11:27
Mais la proposition n°2 défendue par les anti-primaires est également... une primaire. Et Vallaud et Meyer-Rossignol ont déjà affiché leur proximité / bonne entente avec Glucksmann, qui lui est strictement anti-primaire à l'heure actuelle et qui en plus, n'a jamais été encarté au PS. Je n'ai pas l'impression que l'opposition à Faure ait réussi à proposer un chemin alternatif qui puisse véritablement séduire le militant socialiste de base. L'alternative à Faure me semble peu clair et potentiellement associé au scénario d'un effacement du Parti Socialiste derrière Place Publique.
2026-07-06 17:20:22
Mélenchon a un certain âge, donc proposer une hypothèse de substitution se défend vaguement, mais oui, ça n'était clairement pas indispensable.
2026-07-06 19:07:11
You haven't clarified anything. The issue is that he could announce a "pause" while "retiring from Formula 1" suggests something definitive. The market should have clarified that point beforehand.
2026-07-06 19:21:55
J'avais plus en tête un cancer ou un décès. Pas l'impression qu'il se renouvelle beaucoup intellectuellement désormais mais bon, oui, il a encore de la marge avant d'égaler Joe Biden.
2026-07-06 21:43:03
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
2026-07-07 20:07:43
Following Marine le Pen's decision, the Rassemblement National has officially launched a website that uses her name to support her presidential campaign. She is now the designated candidate of the Rassemblement National. If she ultimately renounce doesn't matter here. This can now indeed be resolved to "Yes / Marine Le Pen".
2026-07-08 08:02:15
Well, so far, she announced it (she is herself a membēr of the National Council of the Rassemblement National) and the website proves that her announcement is backed by her own party, since it has been set up and paid by the Rassemblement National. But to go above and beyond, I guess we can still wait for a proper statement by the RN president that will say "Marine is our candidate" or something along those lines.
2026-07-08 09:54:11
First statement from Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National: “The campaign is now starting [...] and I'm delighted that Marine can represent our party”. I think that there is everything now to resolve this market.
2026-07-08 10:13:18
We can still wait for an even clearer sentence from Bardella himself I guess. But as of right now, the official stance of the RN is that Marine le Pen is their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, and Bardella will be her PM if she ever becomes president. There is absolutely no ambiguity about that.
2026-07-08 12:53:28
Markets can sometimes take a bit of time before resolving but I really don't get why some people still buy Jordan Bardella shares. Like, guys... the rules are very clear. Marine Le Pen has started her campaign and she is now officially Rassemblement National's candidate for the 2027 presidential election. Whether or not she will drop out in the end is completely irrelevant here. There is another market for that.
2026-07-08 15:37:02
Post on the official RN X account: ”Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella convened the Extended National Council this afternoon at the RN’s headquarters, a few hours after the confirmation of Marine's candidacy.”
2026-07-08 21:05:53
🙃 Je n'y croyais plus à voir ce marché proposé par ailleurs.
2026-07-09 08:27:18
A post from their official X account explicitly states that she is now the RN candidate. A video posted on the official website of the Rassemblement National is labelled "Yes, I will run for the presidential election". An announcement has been made by Marine Le Pen, has been reported by every news media, and she is herself an executive membēr of the Rassemblement National. I think that there is already everything to resolve this market. Prices are at 92% and not 99% because of bots & stupid Americans who can't read lol.
2026-07-09 11:39:04
Another proof for the retardmaxxers out there who somehow believe that Bardella owns a time-altering machine in his basement. Words written by the Rassemblement National's official X account: "Millions of French people eagerly awaits the resurgence of France: we are ready to lead this crucial fight that will carry @MLP_officiel to the Élysée in 2027!"
2026-07-10 00:53:41
M'ok, les opposants internes à Faure ont gagné 55% à 45%. Il devient difficile désormais d'imaginer le PS participer à cette primaire unitaire de la gauche, et donc par la même occasion, la tenue de cette dernière.
2026-07-10 01:25:56
Le RN et l'UDR ont de très bonnes chances d'obtenir 2 sénateurs dans les Alpes-Maritimes, 1 dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, 1 dans le Var et 1 dans le Vaucluse, ce qui en incluant les 3 qu'ils ont déjà, porterait à 8 leur nombre de sénateurs. Il leur faudra obtenir au moins 2 sénateurs dans 2 autres départements pour obtenir un groupe. Le Gard est potentiellement un autre département prometteur mais la barre y est haute pour un obtenir un siège.
2026-07-10 01:27:56
But no chance he gets offered a deal without an admission of guilt. Hence, it's essentially a deadline market imo.
2026-07-10 08:56:42
"Les adhérent du Parti socialiste ont hier soir décidé d’enterrer la primaire." Marine Tondelier
2026-07-10 19:41:36
Bruh, I bought some MLP shares to get a quick & easy 6% risk-free return, not to bag hold them for weeks and months. 💀 There is really not a single UMA bro who has an IQ above 70 and who is able to understand that the Rassemblement National has already publicly announced its candidate for the 2027 presidential election? 💀
2026-07-10 21:42:25
Bouches-du-Rhône, je m'en suis tenu à 1 à cause de la candidature de Ravier effectivement. C'est aussi une élection de réseautage et d'affinitées, pas seulement d'étiquettes. Et être sortant peut toujours aider à ce niveau.
Pour le Gard, ils sont déjà bien implantés depuis longtemps dans le département (ils avaient déjà Beaucaire notamment) et n'ont fait que 11% en 2020. Il va probablement leur falloir doubler ce score pour obtenir un siège.
L'Aude et le Tarn-et-Garonne, c'est scrutin majoritaire, donc pas évident. L'Hérault et la Gironde, plus urbains et à gauche que les autres départements cités, donc encore une fois, pas évident. La Sarthe, encore loin d'être une terre RN, malgré le succès à la Flèche. L'Aisne... hmm... maintenant que tu le dis, pourquoi pas.
Une fois dit tout cela, oui, je pense qu'ils auront bien leur groupe. Surtout quand on prend en compte la jurisprudence 2023 (où ils ont réussi à obtenir un siège... en Île-de-France). Et le fait qu'en 2026, ils ont obtenu pas mal de communautés de communes sans être majoritaires dans les groupements de communes en question.
2026-07-11 19:04:23
I'm not at my home today. But for the mayoral elections, I remēmber that there was a French guy who resolved lot of them several days after the official results. Perhaps we could try to ask him. He left a comment on the Nice mayoral election market.
2026-07-14 19:50:01
We are running out of retards & stupid bots. The order book is getting progressively empty. Efficient market hypothesis validated with a 7-day delay, you love to see it. 🥹
2026-07-14 21:28:19
High-Level-Retard saw my comment and had to do something. Beautiful commitment to the bit. 🥹
2026-07-15 07:50:20
But for real, it's so annoying. Any news from the French people that you have contacted?
2026-07-15 12:40:03
Absurd. Statements from the RN that clearly designate Marine Le Pen as their chosen candidate do exist. And having a contingency plan in case of unforeseen circumstances can’t possibly be interpreted as announcing two candidates for an election. That’s ridiculous. Jordan Bardella being the backup candidate is not even the Rassemblement National’s official stance anymore, so there not even room to argue here.
I will keep bitching about it in the coming days on the relevant Discord servers. And if it doesn’t work, will liquidate my position to breakeven and be done with it. Not waiting for this circus to end past the end of this month…
2026-07-16 09:07:30
Une question de mise en situation posée par un journaliste évoquant le cas où le RN n'aurait pas de majorité à l'AN pourrait l'amener à évoquer un premier ministre de substitution à Bardella, ce qui pourrait être suffisant pour valider le "Yes" je pense.
2026-07-16 09:37:09
"recruiting" So what is the salary?
2026-07-16 11:16:35
Some of you guys got baited really hard lol.
2026-07-16 16:40:56
La position officielle du RN en 2024 était que Bardella n'irait à Matignon qu'en cas de majorité RN. Et compte tenu de la situation actuelle, la question de la majorité pour gouverner sera forcément posée durant la campagne présidentielle. On pourrait imaginer Le Pen balancer un autre nom pour répondre à un scénario hypothétique d'absence de majorité et/ou pour envoyer un signal d'ouverture avant le second tour. Le RN a bien évoqué Montebourg comme ministre potentiel par la voix de Jacobelli cette semaine...
2026-07-21 17:19:15
I'm not a military expert but it's probably easier to take control of this island than Kharg island. Prices should reflect that if they made sense. 🤷♂️
2026-07-21 18:19:42
Best guess is likely no. Lowest recorded value in recent years is 25.1. It happened when Houthis were targeting commercial vessels using very loose criteria. They don't control the strait anyway and probably can't afford to piss off every major world power.
2026-07-22 17:16:48
Cazeneuve qui pump à +30% 6 jours après son annonce de candidature. Ça c'est du pricing smart & reactive. 💪
2026-07-22 22:12:01
The Banana strait is more open than ever. Free trade carries on. Capitalism is so incredibly beautiful. 🥹
2026-07-23 21:37:21
Too many ships crossing, it's going to take some time to count them all. 🫨
2026-07-24 16:42:25
Ne serait-il pas temps d'arrêter la blague Michel-Edouard Leclerc à >10% ? Dans le Figaro aujourd'hui : « 23 % des Français estimant qu’il ferait un "bon candidat" à la présidentielle. Mais il exclut cette hypothèse : "Est-ce que c’est en étant candidat au milieu de vingt candidats que je serais plus efficace ?" »
2026-07-24 22:34:03
Hilarious to see what allowed this market to resolve as "Yes". Makes me wonder if my "No"-bet "China x Japan military clash" is as safe as I thought it was.
2026-07-25 01:35:38
Are you talking about that:
"The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. "
In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo.
And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
2026-07-31 08:06:18
I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.
2026-08-05 12:19:14
Je n'oublie rien du tout lol. Il est acquis que l'un des deux se retirera début 2027 en faveur de l'autre dans le cas où un second tour Mélenchon versus Le Pen se profilerait.
2026-08-05 23:52:16
« Xavier Bertrand annonce qu’il se déclarera candidat à la fin de l’année » (RTL) 😍
Bertrand VS Castex VS Hollande. Ce plateau de rêve qui s'annonce. 🤤
2026-08-06 09:29:17
Weird. Was the weather abnormally bad yesterday? Traffic seems fairly normal today.
2026-08-06 12:40:25
Bro, lâche cette souris et débranche ton clavier, je t'en conjure. 😭
2026-08-06 12:56:38
Why do you think that?
2026-08-07 21:07:16
« Selon les informations de Politico, le Premier ministre et le président de la République prépareraient une « initiative politique » aux contours encore flous, destinée à faire émerger une troisième voie entre Gabriel Attal et Édouard Philippe » 😳😳
2026-08-07 21:41:24
The Wikipedia page for the referendum indicates that only two Icelandic political parties support the Yes side. That's surprisingly low. 🤔
2026-08-10 17:12:57
But we are Charlie Kirk. So all of us? 🫨
2026-08-10 17:49:08
Si le pricing de ce marché était un tant soit peu sérieux, Olivier Faure serait plus haut qu'un certain nombre d'autres noms de cette liste entre 5% et 15% à l'heure actuelle. Puisqu'il a l'intention d'être candidat à la primaire socialiste dont il va lui-même définir les contours et les modalités (en grande partie du moins).
Faure à 6%, Ségo à 7%, Bompard à 8%, Pigasse à 10%, Guedj à 12%... Tout cela n'a évidemment aucun sens.
2026-08-10 19:08:33
La candidature de Retailleau va être soumise à deux logiques qui s'opposent :
La première, c'est l'inertie stratégique de LR. Ce serait bien mal connaître LR que de penser qu'ils vont subitement développer une intelligence stratégique et planifier un retrait en le négociant au prix fort. Depuis 2017, à quelques nuances près, LR n'a mené aucune stratégie d'alliance, n'a organisé aucune primaire ouverte, n'a participé à renverser aucun gouvernement, n'a effectué aucune purge interne ni véritable clarification de sa ligne, etc. La réalité est que LR considère que le pouvoir doit naturellement lui revenir et par conséquent, tant que Retailleau se maintiendra à un niveau respectable autour de 8-10%, il n'y a que très peu de chance qu'il se retire.
La seconde, c'est le fait que LR n'est plus un parti politique mais un syndicat d'élus avant tout préoccupés par la conservation de leur petit poste. La base militante LR étant devenue trop faible pour exercer une pression tangible sur eux, bon nombre d'élus LR vont publiquement appeler à son retrait d'ici la fin 2026 / le début 2027, ce qui inévitablement affaiblira sa candidature...
2026-08-11 11:16:23
You are right, this market is not accurately priced. But since a cycle of negative news for him and his party might still be ahead (Burnham honeymoon period, Reform UK dropping in polls, the conclusion of the ongoing investigation, a second by-election potentially required, etc.), some people here will still believe that a resignation could happen. Need to be a little bit patient.
2026-08-12 23:11:53
Blue Origin FCC application has Nov. 1st 2026 - May 1st 2027 as their target operational window for the next New Glenn launch. And today, Dave Limp, CEO of Blue Origin, has stated once again that a launch by the end of the year "remains their priority".
2026-08-14 22:08:00
You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵
2026-08-15 00:17:58
There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.
2026-08-15 20:26:36
Boris Vallaud est très surestimé depuis le début de ce marché. La presse a rapporté ces derniers jours sa candidature comme incertaine. Il entretient d'excellentes relations avec Glucksmann. Et ce dernier négocie actuellement les conditions de sa participation à la primaire socialiste, régulièrement décrite comme taillée pour lui. À l'instant T, 10-20% pour Boris Vallaud serait sans doute plus approprié.
2026-08-15 20:26:59
« C'est plus incertain pour son rival Boris Vallaud, qui tergiverse et pourrait passer son tour au profit de Glucksmann. » (Le Nouvel Obs)
2026-08-15 21:36:03
« En conflit ouvert avec le premier secrétaire, Boris Vallaud avait, lui, clamé son envie d’aller « à la bagarre » au début de l’été dans un entretien au Parisien, sans rien officialiser de ses ambitions. Mais le patron des députés PS n’est visiblement pas pressé d’entrer sur le ring. « Ce n’est pas tranché », élude-t-on dans son entourage. » (le Figaro)
2026-08-15 22:54:32
« [...] aucune emprise sur le Parti socialiste. » 🤨
Il représentait le PS dans le cadre d'une élection nationale pas plus tard qu'il y a deux ans... Il a ses soutiens et relais au sein du PS (Carole Delga par exemple). Et le résultat du vote du 9 juillet peut s'interprêter comme une preuve de sa popularité interne au sein du PS puisqu'il était admis que c'était l'option qui lui était favorable.
2026-08-16 11:43:48
Ça risque fort de ne pas aller au bout pour Marine Tondelier. Elle va accoucher en septembre et aura à s'occuper d'un nourrisson de 6-8 mois lorsque se déroulera la campagne présidentielle. L'existence de sa candidature est contestée en interne. Elle dit aujourd'hui vouloir discuter avec les autres partis de gauche, évoque d'emblée la question des législatives et déclare que « son bulletin de vote ne sera jamais celui qui fera gagner le Rassemblement national » (comprendre : « Je suis prête à retirer ma candidature pour aider la gauche à battre le RN »).
2026-08-17 16:30:47
Collecte des parrainages et structuration de son mouvement, Le Figaro rapporte que De Villepin préparerait sérieusement à se lancer. « En septembre, tout sera prêt. » débute l'article couvrant le sujet. La gauche décoloniale aura son candidat ! 😍💪
2026-08-17 16:55:44
« J’ai décidé de ne pas rajouter de la division et donc de ne pas me présenter à l’élection présidentielle. - Gérald Darmanin. Ça peut partir à 0% ça. Good night, sweet prince. 🥹
2026-08-17 17:46:16
Doable against Mélenchon. Hard to win an election in France on anti-France electoral platform you know. 🤷♂️
2026-08-18 17:05:56
Il était question de Darmanin ici. 🤨
Pour ce qui est de Leclerc, c'est le résultat du jeu complice entre les médias français, qui frissonnent à l'idée d'un candidat surprise qui déjoue les pronostics, et les personnalités concernées, qui profitent de l'exposition médiatique que leur offre le statut de « présidentiable ». Entretenir un temps le doute leur permet d'augmenter leur poids/influence politique sans dépenser le moindre euro. Mais derrière, pour Leclerc comme pour d'autres, il n'y a souvent aucune voie de passage réaliste pour une candidature.
2026-08-18 17:09:32
Par ailleurs, il y a une forme de prime d'illiquidité qui conduit un certain nombre de noms de cette liste à être à 2-4% plutôt qu'à 0-1%.
2026-08-18 17:31:27
Le Parisien rapporte que Glucksmann devrait annoncer sa participation à la primaire socialiste ce dimanche. Reste à voir si Boris Vallaud, qui s'affichait en déplacement à ses côtés pas plus tard qu'en juin dernier, aura vraiment l'envie de l'affronter. 🧐
2026-08-18 19:42:20
Nothing has changed btw. 🥱
2026-08-18 22:23:09
Being anti computers in 2026 lmao.
2026-08-18 23:15:07
If polls for this referendum are this close, then it's probably not worth it for Iceland to go through the hassle of negotiating a deal and having a second referendum, which would most likely fail. The only smart choice is probably to vote No at this point. But let's be honest, what do I know about Iceland...
2026-08-19 08:02:06
Les commentaires que je poste sont bien liés, en général, à des positions que j'ai mais certaines sont vendues avant expiration + je réfléchis en performance annualisée et en performance ajustée au risque.
2026-08-19 16:56:22
Sources tell me that they will even kiss.
2026-08-19 20:32:55
« François Hollande n'est pas candidat pour la présidentielle de 2027, mais il loue déjà des locaux à Paris en prévision d'une éventuelle candidature. » (Radio France) 😳😲
2026-08-21 01:07:30
Rubio is the better candidate so Trump will logically endorse Vance. 🥴
2026-08-24 13:49:04
Eh bien, mise dessus si tu y crois tant que ça. 🤨 Tu as même l'autre marché portant sur la liste des candidats et non sur la victoire finale si tu veux rester prudent.
2026-09-12 16:12:33
Yes buyers be like: