Account Information
Name:
MerhabaKardesim
Pseudonym:
Musty-Bit
Created:
2025-10-31 20:18:28
Last Activity:
4 weeks ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-3879922-c34b4714-a5ce-45cf-a575-4904f0372eba.gif
Total Profit
$29,350
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$3,444.42
Markets traded
984
Trades
983
Largest win
$9,935.17
Profile views
64
Join date
2025-10-31 20:18:28
All-time rank
6001
All-time PnL
$29,350.34
All-time volume
$10,278,949.75
All-time profit
$29,350.34
Lifetime volume
$10,278,949.75
PnL series latest
$29,442.38
PnL series start
$30,952.51
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$875.85
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 46726.8935 | $9,935.17 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 49287.9596 | $7,351.82 |
| Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 11816.2351 | $6,355.29 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? | Yes | 28243.7525 | $-3,743.92 |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 | Over | 4699.9905 | $-2,776.30 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | No | 5093.9805 | $-2,380.01 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 5084.16 | $0.18 | $0.18 | $940.57 | $8.73 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 10190.24 | $0.15 | $0.07 | $662.37 | $-817.65 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 4999.76 | $0.24 | $0.13 | $649.97 | $-566.97 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | 5980.43 | $0.07 | $0.05 | $281.08 | $-110.02 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | Yes | 2168.0111 | $0.26 | $0.11 | $238.48 | $-325.82 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 46726.8935 | $9,935.17 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 49287.9596 | $7,351.82 |
| Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 11816.2351 | $6,355.29 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 333391.5803 | $3,824.25 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 175322.0342 | $3,603.92 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.0062 | $0.01 | |||
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | Yes | $0.18 | 460.59 | $82.91 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | Yes | $0.02 | 754.91 | $12.08 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | Yes | $0.02 | 245.09 | $3.92 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | Yes | $0.17 | 520.72 | $88.52 |
Recent trades (983)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | Yes | $0.18 | 460.59 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | Yes | $0.19 | 33.66 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | Yes | $0.13 | 76.81 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | Yes | $0.10 | 139.17 |
| 4 weeks ago | BUY | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | Yes | $0.10 | 161.4 |
Comments
2025-11-04 16:42:04
omg, your bet is 1m$, where can you get that kind of money? I only saw it in a dream)
2025-11-05 02:07:51
Congrats sir ! Happy for you 🥹
2025-11-10 14:03:39
[link removed]
2026-02-09 21:50:09
D
2026-04-12 17:15:38
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- Israel is preparing to renew the war in Iran, with an intent to strike national infrastructure and energy reserves throughout Iran, according to Kan News.
Israel is apparently awaiting the green light from President Trump.
2026-04-12 18:06:55
29m ago you sold 12,005.3 shares at 0.04c. Now you buy 12k shares at 0.15c. Are you gay?
2026-04-12 22:21:41
Trump weighs limited strikes on Iran after talks collapse - WSJ.
2026-04-13 11:30:32
❗️ Netanyahu says Iran ceasefire could end very soon (N12 News)
[link removed]
2026-04-13 11:31:21
NEW: Iran may launch missiles today towards American and Israeli targets in response to the Hormuz blockade - Al hadath [link removed]
2026-04-15 19:10:26
This man @bordoteth placed a limit order for 100,000 shares at 0.15 YES
2026-04-15 19:12:03
Scotty Nooo gotta eat this wall
2026-04-15 19:21:09
bеtmоаr
2026-04-15 19:24:18
They sell 1$ for 0.83c amazing
2026-04-15 19:58:42
🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Heavy close combat clashes between Hezbollah fighters and IDF soldiers in Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon.
2026-04-15 20:42:04
Heavy close combat clashes between Hezbollah fighters and IDF soldiers in Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon.
2026-04-15 22:01:59
ScottyNooo is LEGEND!
2026-04-15 22:22:14
Bro, yes. Because in 5 hours and 40 minutes, the resolution will be proposed as a NO. Save at least some money before it's $0.
2026-04-16 18:42:57
LOL. 🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Large Hezbollah rocket barrage to northern Israel.
The ceasefire is set to begin in just over two hours.
2026-04-16 18:54:50
UPDATE: Hezbollah: ‘As long as the occupation remains, Lebanon has the right to resist’. [link removed]
2026-04-16 20:34:14
🇱🇧🇮🇱⚡️- Hezbollah rockets launched to northern Israel
2026-04-17 15:27:34
I am amazed at people who block $7,000,000 for 2 days to earn $7,000. Aren't there more profitable bets than buying at 99.9c? Why not buy some other rates of 100% at 97c? 98s? I'm amazed
2026-04-17 15:28:17
If it weren't for these 2 whales poorsob and 033033033, shares on NO would be in the region of 1c
2026-04-17 15:40:11
Strange logic. You urgently need $7,000,000 to buy something cheaper, but all your money is frozen for two days. It seems to me like some kind of UMA Mafia. More precisely, a treasury of money owned by a group of people.
2026-04-18 11:25:40
❌ HEZBOLLAH CEASEFIRE VIOLATION: Since the ceasefire came into effect, IDF soldiers south of the Yellow Line in southern Lebanon identified several incidents in which terrorists violated the ceasefire understandings by approaching from north of the Yellow Line toward IDF soldiers, posing an immediate threat.
In order to remove the threat, the IDF conducted precise strikes against the terrorists and terrorist infrastructure sites. [link removed]
2026-04-19 22:15:24
🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — NEW: Iranian forces targeted U.S. warships with drones after Marines attacked and boarded the Iran-flagged M/V Touska, according to Tasnim News Agency.
2026-04-19 22:31:53
BREAKING: Iran's Araghchi warns US against threatening ports and ships. [link removed]
2026-04-20 13:27:03
Ooops… VANCE, US DELEGATION TO LAND IN ISLAMABAD WITHIN HOURS: NYP
2026-04-20 13:28:53
Oh nooo. Please one pump for YES 😭😢
2026-04-21 16:20:20
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰⚡️ — Vice President JD Vance was supposed to leave early this morning to travel to Islamabad for talks with Iran, but his departure has been delayed, and he will stay in Washington to attend additional policy meetings at the White House, according to NYT, citing a White House official.
2026-04-21 16:20:27
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰⚡️ — Vice President JD Vance was supposed to leave early this morning to travel to Islamabad for talks with Iran, but his departure has been delayed, and he will stay in Washington to attend additional policy meetings at the White House, according to NYT, citing a White House official.
2026-04-22 12:53:25
lol. FAKE news pupm as always 😀 Urgent | Iranian Foreign Ministry: The naval blockade on Iranian ports remains in place and is an aggressive measure
[link removed]
2026-04-22 12:59:17
Give you 10m, after this, No price will 65c
2026-04-22 13:07:43
i Forgot what a you doing man? why sold YES shares lowest price as you bought?
2026-04-22 16:40:57
Nice. Publiched 1h ago. But pumped right now. Where is logic? 🙄
2026-04-22 16:42:38
MisTKy what are you doing man? -12k on this bet,, crazy
2026-04-22 16:53:42
I agree that everything can change at any moment. But you have already sold your shares at a loss several times. I wish you good luck!
2026-04-22 17:05:30
wow, good news. *TRUMP: INFORMED THE EIGHT WOMEN PROTESTORS TO BE EXECUTED WILL NO LONGER BE KILLED
*TRUMP PREVIOUSLY SAID THIS WOULD BE 'GREAT START TO NEGOTIATIONS'
2026-04-22 17:06:21
*TRUMP on TS = I VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THAT IRAN, AND ITS LEADERS, RESPECTED MY REQUEST, AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, AND TERMINATED THE PLANNED EXECUTION. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
2026-04-22 17:07:59
Yes, but the fact that Iran listened to him means a lot
2026-04-22 23:10:20
just read rules again. please
2026-04-22 23:48:16
Сar STOP do it, otherwise I know who to write to so you can hit your fingers :)😼
2026-04-22 23:50:19
JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait are complicit in attacks by US.
[link removed]
2026-04-23 05:42:05
Sorry, but you don't have any cards up your sleeve, Scammed this market
2026-04-23 06:46:47
It's clear YES!
2026-04-23 13:12:39
So! I'm ready for the next manipulation! Please don't waste time!
Thanks for your attention to this issue!🙂↔️
2026-04-23 13:54:31
I was sleeping bro
2026-04-23 17:33:39
It's Clear YES! I bealive a CAR!
2026-04-23 17:44:56
It's all Biden's fault!
2026-04-24 12:16:49
pikachusplace,
remove the wall, I can see everything🤐 It's better to buy it in small parts
2026-04-24 12:25:13
friend, you can tell all the fairy tales to someone else))) I saw all your walls😉
2026-04-25 18:35:04
So, is it YES or NO? I don’t know
2026-04-25 18:46:07
I’m noob ;(
2026-04-25 18:47:03
Car, please one more pump YES 🥹
2026-04-25 18:48:38
I bealiv Dropper ♥️
2026-04-25 18:48:56
Yes! I love it
2026-04-25 19:19:17
In Car we TRUST!
2026-04-25 20:09:43
FAKE NEWS!
2026-04-25 20:45:40
Do you ever go to bed? Give your keyboard a rest
2026-04-25 20:56:31
Eazy
2026-04-26 15:07:59
My man
2026-04-27 01:26:45
Strange, but GROK, Claude says that this is YES, since data consensus is used, which requires the rule “or overwhelming consensus of media reporting”
It is not necessary that ONLY in this case Hezbollah announce
2026-04-27 01:28:41
Yes, I know. But sometimes, to understand the market rules correctly, AI helps
2026-04-27 01:30:11
It doesn't matter if they bomb each other after concluding ceasfire
2026-04-27 01:37:24
we also have a consensus from Reuters, AP, Axios, BBC, Wikipedia, Euronews, UN News (and the rules say “or overwhelming consensus of media reporting”) that ceasfire is in action after both sides visited the Trump White House.
[link removed]
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Everything here is decided by this paragraph in the rules “or overwhelming consensus of media reporting” which is fully consistent with the decision YES.
2026-04-27 01:39:54
Look at the previous bets, I thought the same as you
2026-04-27 01:47:37
Did you have SuperGrok for 400$/year?
2026-04-28 12:45:12
None
2026-05-01 19:27:38
Where is Pedro? We needs he
2026-05-02 14:57:48
In all in? For all you 153$? GOAT
2026-05-07 17:15:38
NOW: The meeting between Trump and “Lula” has just ended at this moment, but the delegations from Brazil and the USA went straight to lunch, without speaking to the press.
2026-05-08 18:13:05
LOL
Read the rules. A temporary truce is NOT CONSIDERED for the decision YES
2026-05-08 18:15:29
a 3-day ceasefire - this is not enough for a resolution. ceasefire associated with May 9 only
2026-05-08 18:18:37
I'm sorry you lost -$7000 today. But you will lose even more if you don’t sell your YES now
2026-05-08 18:20:04
We need a "general pause in the conflict" and not a TEMPORARY STOP
2026-05-08 18:45:48
Text me in a couple of hours when everything calms down again and NO will cost ~90c
2026-05-08 18:55:31
True bro. People are stupid...
2026-05-08 18:59:43
This is a HUMANITARIAN ceasefire. Read the DECREE on the website of the President of Ukraine. THIS DOESN'T COUNT!
2026-05-08 19:13:49
I tried to help you bro
2026-05-08 19:17:21
[link removed].ua/documents/3742026-59389
FOR THE HUMANITARIAN PURPOSE OUTLINED
2026-05-08 19:18:28
35 minutes before SHARES "YES" costs 0.05c
2026-05-08 19:21:03
Bro, just sell your YES now. You will lose money. This has happened many times already, just like on Easter. You still have time
2026-05-08 19:22:23
Bro, mark my words. In 35 minutes you will regret not selling your YES
2026-05-15 21:07:29
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD NAMES JEROME POWELL AS CHAIR PRO TEMPORE UNTIL KEVIN WARSH IS SWORN IN AS THE NEW CHAIR -STATEMENT
2026-05-22 17:46:06
It's Bug UI Polymarket. Market was clarificated:
2026-05-22 17:46:14
Per market rules, "Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify."
Recent announcements of ongoing negotiations to eventually cut or eliminate tariffs do not qualify toward this market's resolution.
Note: This address (0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D) is a verified Polymarket address.
2026-05-22 13:14:19
2026-05-22 17:46:36
[link removed]
2026-05-22 17:56:06
It's just trading
2026-05-22 18:08:29
Because the previous address (0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5) was compromised today, and they are thus warning us that they have replaced it with a new one
2026-05-22 18:11:00
Yes, In the official Discord channel ([link removed] or via the blockchain link - [link removed]
2026-05-22 19:12:37
You most likely don't understand the specifics of the markets on Polymarket and the role of Clarification from the team
2026-06-01 13:45:32
Any proof that’s tokens was sold? Really proof
2026-06-01 13:53:42
Maybe it’s was before 31MAY ET. Transfers ≠ sold
2026-06-01 14:39:21
It’s not about “May 31” in general. It’s about whether the sale happened within the market’s ET timeframe. A sale at 10 PM PST on May 31 could already be outside the market window. As indicated on site Strategy
2026-06-01 19:04:24
Al Jazeera: Israeli airstrike on the city of Arab al-Awja in the Sidon district, southern Lebanon
2026-06-02 11:09:06
They caused such a stir on Twitter. Is everyone just hoping that Polymarket will reverse its decision?
2026-06-02 11:16:03
🚨 Polymarket should not intervene by issuing clarifications when shares are trading around 80/20 in favor of Yes, like it did with the Ukraine ceasefire market. This is bad for Polymarket’s reputation.
2026-06-02 13:34:57
💯
2026-06-02 14:03:24
A market shown as ending on May 31 but having an actual end date of July 1 in the API is crazy . x. com/bryantheden/status/2061804064258789379?s=46
2026-06-06 11:45:17
Because it counted toward the Israel-Lebanon
2026-06-07 20:46:15
NOTAM droped. it's YES
2026-06-09 20:45:36
Trump on Iran shooting down US helicopter over Strait of Hormuz:
"wasn’t a big deal"
2026-06-09 21:59:30
yeah. orange man as always ...
2026-07-27 20:16:42
lol, Joe/Biden - 11
2026-09-12 16:59:27
Yep