Account Information
Name:
SUPERNOVA-
Pseudonym:
Miserly-Age
Created:
2025-12-13 05:59:43
Last Activity:
1 week ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-4545481-2aeaf70e-6ec9-4e00-9fa2-eb05fd1cd629.png
Total Profit
$2,308
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$12,072.33
Markets traded
94
Trades
94
Largest win
$2,915.06
Profile views
25
Join date
2025-12-13 05:59:43
All-time rank
47132
All-time PnL
$2,308.29
All-time volume
$179,677.61
All-time profit
$2,308.29
Lifetime volume
$179,677.61
PnL series latest
$2,342.13
PnL series start
$2,352.32
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$315.72
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | 6499.9845 | $2,910.04 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 2500 | $2,250.00 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 9352.31 | $1,477.21 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 5729.26 | $-1,926.76 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 2815 | $-555.79 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 723.74 | $-553.98 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 8639.7905 | $0.50 | $0.81 | $7,041.43 | $2,707.08 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9305.36 | $0.19 | $0.16 | $1,502.82 | $-282.74 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 3251.68 | $0.32 | $0.32 | $1,024.28 | $-16.26 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 1070.55 | $0.60 | $0.78 | $829.68 | $189.21 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 999.7191 | $0.56 | $0.76 | $754.79 | $198.70 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | 6499.9845 | $2,910.04 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 2500 | $2,250.00 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 9352.31 | $1,477.21 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 3499.9609 | $1,470.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 2000 | $980.00 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.46 | 85.87 | $39.50 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.39 | 425 | $166.20 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | $0.81 | 1070.55 | $860.56 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.34 | 206.12 | $70.28 |
| 2 weeks ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.138 | $0.14 |
Recent trades (94)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.46 | 85.87 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.39 | 425 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | $0.81 | 1070.55 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | Yes | $0.34 | 206.12 |
| 2 weeks ago | SELL | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | $0.80 | 2141.1 |
Comments
2026-04-06 00:01:58
To me it's cut and dry, Trump won't let 100's of flag-draped caskets hit the gram - I have a partially-filled limit order on 'no' at $0.37
2026-04-08 15:12:16
Bunch of sore losers in here... read the rules in advance, this is a clear YES - I just made BANK - thank you!
2026-04-09 00:52:56
man so many sore loosers in here! the rules were clear, this is an obvious YES
2026-04-11 20:45:39
this will resolve no. [link removed] [link removed]
2026-04-11 21:54:26
the author is providing an excellent thesis as to why the US will NOT invade
2026-04-12 01:02:08
about to fall off a cliff - 'yes' - get out while you can.
2026-04-12 02:13:45
last chance santuk -/+
2026-04-12 03:59:29
I'm holding because any real 'establish control' operation still requires US ships in the Persian Gulf — which means tons of sailor deaths and extreme oil market chaos. Trump/Vance want the victory narrative from Epic Fury, not another quagmire. These talks failing is noise, not signal. The structural reasons against invasion haven't changed.
2026-04-12 04:16:18
The core issue is simple: any “Yes” outcome requires the U.S. to establish and hold control over some piece of Iranian territory (even a small island or coastal zone). That is much harder than it sounds.
To hold any territory you need sustained naval logistics in the Persian Gulf. That puts U.S. ships directly inside Iran’s remaining anti-ship missile and drone range.
Even after Epic Fury, Iran still has thousands of Shahed drones, coastal missiles, and fast-attack boats. One successful attack means dead American sailors and sunken ships — something the Pentagon, Trump, and MAGA have zero appetite for.
Trump just declared “mission accomplished” after a clean air/naval campaign. Going back in for a ground/seizure operation would destroy that victory narrative and turn his own base against him even moreso.
Vance’s 21-hour talks failing doesn’t change the math — it just means more economic pressure and standoff, not occupation.
31 December is a long way out, but the structural, military, and political barriers against actual “control” remain extremely high.
That’s why I’m comfortable holding 'No' and quite honestly I feel bad for all of the people fomoing into yes on no deal after 21 hrs - then again, I could be wrong! good luck to all.
2026-04-12 04:26:31
@santuk
2026-04-12 13:22:31
READ THE RULES
2026-04-13 04:17:10
She sneaks in quietly (she’s already done clandestine travel for the Nobel), appears suddenly in Caracas (downtown walk, hugs, camera crew rolling, viral live streams), and immediately calls on all exiles to “return home with me now.”
Pure high-drama Machado theater: Nobel laureate returns like Mandela, triggers instant mobilization, and puts Delcy in a catch 22 (arrest her on live TV after she’s already inside?)
2026-04-13 20:08:58
@santuk last chance get out while you can 🙏
2026-04-13 22:31:24
nice
2026-04-14 03:25:14
we knew about this this morning
2026-04-15 01:34:41
The US president has told the Fox News broadcaster that the war on Iran could end soon.
“I think it’s close to over, yeah,” he said in a clip of the interview aired by the US broadcaster.
“I mean I view it as very close to over,” he added.
2026-04-15 01:35:40
The US president has told the Fox News broadcaster that the war on Iran could end soon.
“I think it’s close to over, yeah,” he said in a clip of the interview aired by the US broadcaster.
“I mean I view it as very close to over,” he added.
2026-04-16 08:33:51
completely agreed. lots of value at these levels
2026-04-16 15:44:49
"between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date," NOT lebanon - what on earth is going on?
2026-04-16 15:45:58
do you mean who?
2026-04-16 15:58:41
link?
2026-04-16 16:02:36
The critical rule (the part the market may be missing)
The resolution rules are very clear:
“This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah…”
It explicitly requires Hezbollah to agree — not just the Lebanese government.
Trump’s tweet is about Lebanon and Israel. There is no mention of Hezbollah agreeing or even being part of the deal. Hezbollah has repeatedly said they reject the current framework and will not disarm or withdraw from southern Lebanon.
So what happens now?
If Hezbollah publicly accepts or respects the 10-day ceasefire → Yes resolves.
If Hezbollah rejects it, ignores it, or continues fighting → this should resolve No.
Right now the market is treating the Trump announcement as basically game over for Yes. That’s why you got porked this morning.
My current read:
The probability of Hezbollah actually agreeing to (and respecting) a ceasefire by April 30 is still low — maybe 25–35%.
But the market has gone full euphoria on the headline. It could stay there until we see Hezbollah’s official response.
You’re right that the key aspect is Hezbollah’s position on withdrawal/disarmament. Israel’s goal is structural (disarmament + Litani River line). Hezbollah’s goal is the opposite. That mismatch hasn’t disappeared just because Trump announced a Lebanon-Israel deal.
2026-04-16 18:18:16
Trump says Lebanon ceasefire includes Hezbollah
Talking to reporters at the White House, the US president said Lebanon’s ceasefire includes Hezbollah.
He also said he would meet Israel’s prime minister and Lebanon’s president, without specifying the timing. - [link removed]
2026-04-16 19:25:11
please dispute! this is nonsense, they about to rob us - this will resolve no if we challenge
2026-04-16 19:45:31
Someone with big bankroll PLEASE dispute
2026-04-16 19:47:46
@AEDE I would but not allowed in my location
2026-04-17 17:31:10
i tried to warn you bro.
2026-04-17 18:46:00
senior WH officials confirmed meeting on monday in Pakistan
2026-04-18 04:40:18
When reached for comment on the allegations, Patel told The Atlantic: “Print it, all false, I’ll see you in court — bring your checkbook.”
2026-04-18 15:23:04
ah! haha
2026-04-18 18:02:44
Machado also asserted that a new phase is beginning, in which millions of Venezuelans will begin returning to their country. "I feel that this afternoon, our return begins."
"From here we begin to prepare for this new phase, in which millions of us return to build together a country that we are all proud to be Venezuelan,"
2026-04-18 18:03:33
EL RETORNO BEGINS
2026-04-19 02:58:50
amen
2026-04-19 05:05:29
excellent 'no' entry here
2026-04-19 16:37:03
why would they have blown all the bridges if they wanted to send troops across?
2026-04-19 16:43:10
lol 🤞
2026-04-19 16:47:29
US delegation will be in Pakistan on Monday for talks with Iran - FR24
2026-04-19 21:02:14
She said in Madrid 'the return begins today' - without giving an exact timeline
2026-04-21 00:42:06
lmaoo
2026-04-21 19:06:29
fake pump, ceasefire extension will be announced this evening
2026-04-22 03:23:15
easy money
2026-04-26 02:22:03
yeah, you will kash for sure.
2026-05-23 21:35:39
trump announced its over [link removed]
2026-05-23 22:11:51
in what world is trump agreeing to a deal where iran does not end enrichment
2026-05-23 22:31:21
bought more after reading your response - gg's
2026-05-24 18:22:03
The final settlement may come later, but Trump cannot allow the preliminary deal to come with zero nuclear restraint. The likely bridge is a temporary enrichment suspension while final terms are negotiated. Iran has every incentive to offer a zero-enrichment pledge as the price of avoiding further destruction, while Trump needs exactly that to sell the deal as the anti-JCPOA victory. I'm not saying 100%, however $0.18 on 'yes' is an extreme bargain.
2026-05-25 06:16:26
shit
2026-06-13 20:41:15
HORMUZ
2026-06-15 01:49:23
the agreed to suspend enrichment per Al Monitor
2026-06-26 19:47:31
rip
2026-07-04 00:05:23
great entry point
2026-07-04 21:53:14
get ready for the drop
2026-07-21 04:48:09
y not
2026-08-15 11:43:28
what are the realistic alternatives to no extension?
2026-08-15 12:08:51
following that logic, wouldn't it make sense to hold 'yes' on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
2026-08-17 11:32:38
link for new article?
2026-08-17 12:01:32
love a good sweat
2026-08-17 17:30:01
daddy newsom is the only real option
2026-08-18 19:05:46
The United Arab Emirates says its air defences “detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward the country, with the first falling outside the country’s territorial waters, while the second fell within the territorial waters”.
2026-08-18 20:08:45
11:42 PM, 18 August 2026
UAE: Missiles targeted maritime navigation, both fell into sea
The UAE Ministry of Defence clarified that assessments showed two ballistic missiles detected approaching from Iran were targeting maritime navigation.
The ministry said both missiles fell into the sea and did not hit land.
It confirmed that the UAE remains on high alert and fully prepared to respond to any threats targeting the country’s security or maritime navigation in the region.
2026-08-20 20:28:06
rip
2026-08-20 20:57:13
AOC is unelectable and Ossoff will not vacate his senate seat - nobody wants Kamala and the rest are worthless - that leaves only one real contender who can battle the GOP and has the donor money / institutional backing to actually win the presidency
2026-08-21 19:04:01
yum yum
2026-08-21 19:29:00
Приветствую. Ещё один «бургероед» на связи. Разве в этой ситуации не логичнее было бы серьёзно ставить на «Нет»?
2026-08-21 19:54:38
😂
2026-08-22 03:26:39
nah
2026-08-24 17:22:44
yeah bro
2026-08-25 18:15:45
considering your position size it would make sense to resolve, I doubt anyone would dispute
2026-08-25 18:16:35
and based off their statements and the rules, I agree, should resolve yes
2026-08-25 18:42:13
astra escaping security protocols
2026-08-25 18:48:31
'It’s trading at 14¢’ is not resolution criterion
2026-08-26 20:42:35
the last few times the DNC picked a woman it went really well so it should be great with AOC
2026-08-27 21:55:28
Ossoff is not going to vacate his senate seat, nice idea tho
2026-08-27 21:58:47
OpenAI says Astra's release “now depends on clearing the new safeguards”, and executives would not estimate the effect on its launch date.
Altman is even quoted after the alignment incident saying:
“we’re going to take as long as it takes to figure it out.”
2026-08-28 18:21:53
lfg