Account Information
Name:
MrMelonHead
Pseudonym:
Obvious-Eyebrow
Created:
2025-06-21 09:18:17
Last Activity:
1 week ago
Tier:
Bronze
profile-image-3078838-36b6ae4a-7b81-4560-912b-bed97eee22da.webp
Total Profit
$5,631
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$15,128.05
Markets traded
2,042
Trades
2,042
Largest win
$4,360.96
Profile views
6,330
Join date
2025-06-21 09:18:17
All-time rank
23321
All-time PnL
$5,631.46
All-time volume
$2,425,119.76
All-time profit
$5,631.46
Lifetime volume
$2,421,955.89
PnL series latest
$5,465.36
PnL series start
$5,633.44
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$4,173.92
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 26523.7259 | $4,360.96 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 7739.7439 | $4,225.01 |
| Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Rafael Jodar | 4382.9132 | $3,238.49 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 34786.5587 | $-12,231.19 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | Yes | 20006.7732 | $-3,834.04 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 9204.1032 | $-3,457.74 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | No | 6490.7257 | $0.64 | $0.89 | $5,796.22 | $1,638.94 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | No | 1854.6107 | $0.63 | $0.89 | $1,641.33 | $464.33 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | No | 1709.8001 | $0.56 | $0.69 | $1,171.21 | $214.22 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | Yes | 956.0139 | $0.68 | $0.65 | $616.63 | $-30.42 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | No | 600.4432 | $0.67 | $0.85 | $513.38 | $109.38 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 26523.7259 | $4,360.96 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 7739.7439 | $4,225.01 |
| Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Rafael Jodar | 4382.9132 | $3,238.49 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | No | 11137.6402 | $2,805.32 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Yes | 10763.6725 | $2,726.03 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? | No | $0.88 | 228.520175 | $200.00 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 16, 2026? | No | $0.98 | 219.24 | $215.09 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | No | $0.84 | 190.703217 | $160.00 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026? | No | $0.99 | 154.86 | $153.31 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | No | $0.73 | 826.556202 | $600.00 |
Recent trades (2042)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? | No | $0.88 | 228.520175 |
| 1 week ago | SELL | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 16, 2026? | No | $0.98 | 219.24 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | No | $0.84 | 190.703217 |
| 1 week ago | SELL | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026? | No | $0.99 | 154.86 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | No | $0.73 | 826.556202 |
Comments
2025-06-26 16:37:59
I think there's reason to be suspicious considering he for sure wore a suit yet "yes" is at 20c. It should be at 100.
2025-07-04 18:37:54
me
2026-06-10 10:34:55
testing
2026-06-12 09:14:28
If they meet in person to sign, then yes.
2026-06-14 07:15:49
Gotta read the rules, my guy. But June 13th should still resolve to no.
2026-06-14 22:07:44
"A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count."
2026-06-14 23:20:05
How "permanent peace" is defined by the rules
"A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. "
Which condition was met that qualifies for "yes"
"- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count."
2026-06-14 23:22:51
How "permanent peace" is defined.
"A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran."
The condition in the rules that was met
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
2026-06-15 00:28:38
Permanent peace market requires US & Iran announcement; this market requires Israel & Hezbollah announcement.
2026-06-15 09:05:06
Guys there's no scam here, just a misunderstanding of the rules.
Actual permanent peace isn't required for this market to resolve "yes".
The rules define "permanent peace" as: "A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran."
The rules require one of the following conditions to count as yes. Condition #02 has been met.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
2026-06-16 22:30:01
Which resolution criteria has been met?
2026-06-18 20:17:09
There's really no reason to believe June 18th will resolve yes
2026-06-23 14:09:12
And another 9 tankers
2026-06-29 04:25:27
What’s there to dispute?
2026-07-30 04:49:42
Yes is the correct resolution if you only read the title while
2026-07-31 04:45:14
Has Hamas officially announced they are disarming?
2026-07-31 05:15:29
Anonymous Hamas officials speaking to the media isn't the same as an "official announcement".
2026-07-31 05:16:34
Where can I find this official announcement?
2026-08-07 13:12:55
By end of day
2026-08-08 08:05:41
The market wasn't for there being permanent peace; it was for "permanent peace" being announced. It's true it was a badly worded market, but it definitely wasn't a scam. It's important to read the actual rules before betting.
2026-08-10 03:49:31
Read the updated context. This market doesn’t require Hamas actually disarming.
2026-08-12 11:04:39
A story of two tweets
2026-08-12 18:43:33
It’s not that an extension isn’t possible it’s just that “No” should be at 90c.
2026-08-14 17:02:43
Iran is trying to drive up global oil prices to punish the US and increase its leverage for better negotiating terms. Extending the MOU would undermine their strategy.
2026-08-14 18:51:00
yep agreed. No should be 90c+ rn.
2026-08-15 13:51:02
Iran trying to drive up global oil prices to punish the US and increase its leverage for better negotiating terms.
2026-08-17 10:56:52
Lol people falling for fake news again.
2026-08-17 10:57:24
Good time to buy more no, will be back to 95c+ within a few hours
2026-08-17 11:14:39
Fake news my guy
2026-08-17 11:45:38
It's also not on Al Arabiya's site.
2026-08-17 11:54:54
There was no agreement to extend, it's just fake news. It's not even on Al Arabiya site.
2026-08-19 05:40:03
even if he says that it will still resolve no becasue Iran would never agree to extend the MOU
2026-08-21 05:38:56
Who’s claiming this should resolve yes?
2026-08-25 18:43:31
It was an announcement of a potential future agreement. And it's unlikely for Oman to agree to anything without Trump's approval, which would likely require a return to the MOU.
2026-08-25 18:45:28
Do you really think the conditions for "yes" have been met yet it's trading at 14c? If you're confident, waste your own $750; don't try to convince someone else to lose their own money.
2026-08-25 20:17:49
Yes, but the markets are not that dumb. If the criteria for yes were met, or even if there was a decent case for yes being met, the price would reflect that. There's very obviously no case for yes being met.