Account Information
Name:
archaic
Pseudonym:
Dull-Universe
Created:
2021-12-16 08:44:14
Last Activity:
3 weeks ago
Tier:
Bronze
X:
@archaic_on_Poly
d_d_usepic.webp
Total Profit
$187,727
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$164,122.27
Markets traded
2,933
Trades
2,933
Largest win
$2,811.74
Profile views
98,029
Join date
2021-12-16 08:44:14
All-time rank
1070
All-time PnL
$187,726.83
All-time volume
$28,336,706.74
All-time profit
$187,726.83
Lifetime volume
$28,336,706.74
PnL series latest
$190,852.70
PnL series start
$190,477.94
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$17,637.87
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 220983.7408 | $3,503.06 |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | Yes | 20651.6881 | $2,811.73 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Yes | 156059.918 | $2,693.20 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 30596.5169 | $-3,951.40 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 18320.8595 | $-2,674.09 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 64762.5368 | $-1,917.37 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 10730.9498 | $0.90 | $0.94 | $10,033.44 | $427.19 |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | 10224.2153 | $0.92 | $0.95 | $9,672.11 | $303.01 |
| Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | Yes | 7626.6058 | $0.95 | $0.96 | $7,298.66 | $38.48 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 7696.5196 | $0.91 | $0.90 | $6,957.65 | $-78.62 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | No | 7386.3711 | $0.90 | $0.91 | $6,684.67 | $32.15 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 220983.7408 | $3,503.06 |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | Yes | 20651.6881 | $2,811.73 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Yes | 156059.918 | $2,693.20 |
| Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 102278.0211 | $2,689.31 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 166184.4467 | $2,673.12 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | $0.04 | 0.4 | $0.02 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | $0.04 | 3.18 | $0.12 |
| 3 weeks ago | REDEEM | Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? | Yes | $0.00 | 3532.27 | $3,532.27 | |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | Yes | $0.80 | 37 | $29.60 |
| 3 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | $0.90 | 4.13 | $3.72 |
Recent trades (2933)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election? | No | $0.99 | 25.1 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election? | No | $0.99 | 77.75 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | $0.99 | 444.96 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? | Yes | $0.99 | 809.84 |
| 3 weeks ago | BUY | Will Josh Morgan win the 2026 London mayoral election? | Yes | $0.90 | 6.15 |
Comments
2023-09-16 08:28:44
Hasn't this hoax been already proved ? what a curious exit strategy...
2023-09-23 22:00:50
We celebrate World Mental Health Day 🤪 every year on the 10th of October. 'Mental health is a universal human right'. So you’re telling me that SBF won’t get his approved daily medicine ?! That will be an extremely unpleasant situation for the mayor of New York City... SBF is not detained at Guantanamo Bay for God’s sake!
2023-09-25 13:24:19
Well, jokes aside. "From July 2005 through June 2007, 122 requests for ADHD treatment of male inmates were received. Of these requests, 116 inmates (95%) were approved for treatment with stimulant medications." [link removed] Ergo, YES is severely undervalued.
2023-09-25 15:35:26
Surprise, surprise, stimulant medications are actually allowed in prison, NO thesis is no longer valid!
2023-09-25 17:08:39
YES thesis is that UMA voters will punish those with specialised Adderall (BoP policy) knowledge and side with the judge ;)
2023-09-25 17:37:27
you are talking about intricacies and UMA is the court of public opinion. "SBF is bad", "Adderall is bad", "it was signed off by the judge" => so he got what he deserved!
2023-09-25 17:51:57
We haven't even started discussing whether generic Adderall formulation counts as the brand name. 🤣
2023-10-12 16:14:39
in conjunction with their military and media operations on 7 October, hacker groups supporting Hamas took advantage of the situation to launch cyberattacks against Israel under the title #Op-Israel. These included targeting Israel's Red Alert app, which provides real-time alerts to citizens about incoming threats, potentially endangering their safety. Additionally, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks were employed against government websites and economic platforms, with the aim of disrupting critical services and creating economic instability.
2023-10-25 23:29:28
former operative?
2023-10-28 00:04:15
[link removed] Israel Defense Forces spokesperson: “The ongoing ground incursion is not a large-scale offensive
2023-10-28 06:09:14
What is the NO case? Atomic Bombardment and full blown genocide of Palestinians?
2023-10-30 04:38:44
The bet can be tentatively resolved as YES only on the basis of man-hours. A hundred of elite Israeli troops entering Gaza, then quickly returning back, then re-entering the very next day… Over the course of one week this kind of operation will indeed bring the total amount above 1000 man-hours. However the rules of the bet do not mention “man-hours” at all! And absolutely no evidence for the constant presence of 1000+ troops inside Gaza has emerged so far… [link removed] “It is not clear if there will ever be a formal D-day for such an operation”. For someone this may look as obvious YES on the surface, but for any diligent student of prediction markets NO is the only suitable answer.
2023-10-31 03:35:47
The YES thesis rests on a notion that this is a "major ground offensive". Video: Israeli tank opens fire at 'civilian car' in Gaza, 3 killed: [link removed] It looks more like a raid or a target practice. How many battalions are inside Gaza? Where are the videos of intense fighting with Hamas?
2023-10-31 12:12:20
Fortune favours the bold)
2023-11-10 11:06:18
Most alarmingly, Azerbaijan has begun to amass its military forces along its borders with Armenia, including in its Nakhichevan enclave (which borders Turkey). Last week Azerbaijan also began a series of joint military exercises with Turkey, much as it did in the weeks before invading Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2020. These red flags suggest that Azerbaijan is readying itself for a possible invasion while also seeking to intimidate Armenia into ceding land and corridor rights to avoid invasion.
2023-11-20 21:06:22
Getting the Adderall market flashbacks. The name Sam apparently attracts a similar type of courageous Yes bettors. The Yes resolution was very sudden and totally unexpected last time. 😱
2023-11-22 12:20:28
What a fascinating case of double standards! When a film producer is accused of improper behaviour his career is finished. Yet a tech CEO is somehow immune to the similar accusations made by his own sister!
2023-11-22 13:11:02
He was not fired because of that, but rather re-hired. This rare skill is deemed crucial for a CEO with a cult following.
2023-11-22 18:24:27
Eye in the Labyrinth (1972)
2023-11-24 16:32:06
[link removed] Here is a detailed warning of Hamas raid. I see fighters preparing to specifically target Israeli settlements. Oh, wait, it is from 2021. Does it count ?
2023-11-26 02:32:29
very seasoned UK bookmakers still reckon it’s a toss-up between Musk and Zelenskyy, but the battle to be 2023 Time Person of the Year is far from over. [link removed]
2023-11-26 03:11:00
Javier Milei is not even on the list.
2023-12-04 00:41:12
Is there any chance of a Christmas ceasefire?
2023-12-08 09:17:31
the Israel Securities Authority(ISA) said that in the days preceding the Hamas terrorist attack, no significant trading abnormalities which would have necessitated further investigation were detected. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange said that a report by U.S. researchers suggesting there were investors in Israel who may have profited from prior knowledge of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack was inaccurate and its publication irresponsible.
2023-12-20 15:34:14
Based on a report by Guardian, many within Israel perceive Hezbollah as a more substantial threat than Hamas, leading to an increasing belief among Israeli politicians, generals, and a segment of the public that a new conflict in Lebanon is becoming unavoidable. [link removed]
2023-12-24 17:43:57
On the morning of October 7, seven boats of the Hamas naval commando force sailed from the northern shores of the Gaza Strip towards Israel. The Navy admits that they were not prepared for an event of this magnitude. "We prepared for the events of a single boat, with a terrorist or two on it" ... The Navy confirmed that they did not know all the means of warfare that were located during the maneuver, nor all the tunnels that were built from the built-up area to the vicinity of the coast through which the terrorists reached the sea. The bulk of the intelligence was later discovered from the prisoners and from the documents and intelligence collected during the war. [link removed].il/item/3628421
2023-12-28 12:18:47
[link removed] South Korea looks like a logical destination. He can be extradited to the US afterwards.
2024-01-04 02:24:06
They will give the green light to the ETH ETF first.
2024-01-11 23:40:05
You can make up for your losses by buying NO approval of ETH spot ETF. Much better value.
2024-01-11 23:41:15
You can make up for your losses by buying NO approval of ETH spot etf. Much better value for money.
2024-01-12 21:43:12
You might be right. The candidate with the highest trading volume is naturally expected to win. For instance, an influx of large bets on Javier Milei was a telling factor as early as several weeks prior to the official voting day in Argentina.
2024-01-19 22:09:58
[link removed] Will a similar incident count as a military offensive ?
2024-02-14 02:48:30
I would rather worry that the lot itself can be withdrawn any moment now…
2024-02-26 16:18:56
wow that was quick
2024-02-28 05:36:49
You can make it back in Sweden-to-join-nato-by-March-31 market.
2024-03-02 09:39:52
László Kövér is no longer Speaker. Reporting by Reuters is inaccurate.
2024-03-23 20:20:37
There is no presence of any ISIS paraphernalia.
2024-03-25 22:15:28
What’s next ? Dumfuq coin ?
2024-05-23 10:35:43
Buying YES qualifies you for the upcoming airdrop, right?
2024-05-23 13:15:11
"Yes" buyers and Uma voters.
2024-06-03 19:11:05
“The ANC is cognizant of the fact that it is no longer in a position where it can monopolize everything, even with our majority,” he said in an interview. “I think the ANC will have to think much more broader and understand that on its own, it may not be able to sustain the stability we need in the country.”
2024-06-03 19:26:56
The party’s head of elections, Mdumiseni Ntuli, seems to imply that majority is basically in the bag.
2024-06-04 06:32:49
Indian scams are the worst ☹️
2024-06-12 23:43:29
It is pure lunacy that Obama who is not even a politician is valued much higher than Newsom and Harris combined.
2024-06-13 04:42:14
There will be a brokered democratic convention, no doubt.
2024-06-13 09:58:12
Ayatollah Khamenei is 85 and still kicking, you can bet against him as well!
2024-06-19 09:11:49
The $DJT S-1 has gone effective. SEC gives it the green light. So it must be real.
2024-06-20 11:22:42
“lawyers are gonna shut everyone up“. That worked out nicely with Stormy
2024-07-01 18:50:32
No way she can get away with it! Lock her up!
2024-07-06 05:31:52
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had this election in the bag, but then came the Azeri guy and Other option prevailed.
2024-07-08 01:00:26
RN + The Republicans won most seats!
2024-07-12 00:02:28
it must refer to the person Nancy Pelosi.
2024-07-26 21:48:39
The Obamas sounded insincere, and Kamala was clearly confused and frightened.
2024-07-29 16:58:02
Only the French Left is allowed to defy pollsters.
2024-08-06 11:54:58
This should be resolved 50/50 as both resolution criteria are met simultaneously. Also this is not a market on realpolitik as the rules make a bizarre assumption about some second round?! Fantasy sports betting is a thing, so this must be its ugly political cousin.
2024-08-06 17:31:38
There was a precedent when they resolved as 50/50
2024-08-06 21:29:05
Jeez! I somehow thought that the convention has already taken place. 🤦♂️
2024-08-07 21:53:49
Arresting opponents didn't help Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh. https://sg.news.yahoo.com/bangladesh-says-student-leaders-held-071938077.html She resigned soon afterwards.
2024-08-09 19:53:32
To put things into perspective... Bangladesh PM has resigned and left the country. No one expected this as she was at ~ 95% to win/rig the election.
2024-08-13 23:12:02
The demarcation of the Russia–Ukraine border was never completed. The difference between the Russian and the western approaches is that Russia might be meddling in elections, yet the US or UK are mostly specializing in meddling in civil wars.
2024-08-22 14:20:10
Solid analysis, but you chose the wrong month. According to your logic buying No here would make more sense: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-october-31/will-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-october-31?tid=1724335007889
2024-08-26 08:04:31
If Gabriel Attal is going to be reappointed by Macron, it is only natural for Elisabeth Borne to run for the presidency of the Renaissance party.
2024-08-30 20:55:08
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBZNEWtCvJI
2024-08-30 21:47:43
Shouldn't they put an announcement into the official gazette for this ban to become effective?
2024-08-31 08:40:32
How on Earth this market has liquidity rewards and the market on the next French PM does not?
2024-09-02 20:30:12
Contacted by Le Monde, the Elysée did not confirm these names were being considered.
2024-09-02 22:38:00
"Many in Paris speculate that Darmanin has his eye on replacing Élisabeth Borne, Macron's embattled prime minister."
2024-09-18 22:23:34
I am afraid that even those who are expected to count the votes will find the procedure extremely confusing
2024-10-06 19:37:13
most elections are unfair
2024-10-09 01:09:45
The smallest unit of Ethereum is WEI, and the stablecoin of MakerDao is DAI.
2024-10-17 03:47:09
Harris embodies the American dream.
2024-10-17 11:17:13
Judging by the price action the result is already known :(
2024-10-17 14:28:42
Is Khamenei next after Sinwar?
2024-10-21 01:40:34
They are not allowed to vote, I think.
2024-10-21 16:03:59
are they currently at war?
2024-11-01 12:37:11
[link removed]
2024-11-06 15:38:14
he still can accidentally commit a crime.
2024-11-12 14:39:29
Shouldn't the price gradually climb up by ~0.1% each day?
2024-11-17 15:29:55
He is also ready to assume leadership : https://twitter.com/PahlaviReza/status/1857079557985075385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
2024-11-17 15:31:53
"At your call, I am ready to guide this change and LEAD THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. My ability stems from your strength. The energy I draw from the continuation of your rightful struggles and protests, I will use toward establishing a national government in Iran and garnering maximum global support to achieve it".
2024-11-17 20:55:50
New bet suggestion: Who will replace Ali Khamenei as supreme leader of Iran? Mojtaba Khamenei/ Alireza Arafi/ Hashem Hosseini Bushehri/ Ahmad Khatami/ Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri/ Hassan Khomeini/ Reza Pahlavi/ Other/ no announcement.
2024-11-28 16:28:36
she missed her chance to win in the first round.
2024-11-29 16:29:34
[link removed]
2024-11-29 22:01:38
A former journalist turned mayor, Elena Lasconi, polling at 14.3% the Union Save Romania candidate, is not a credible anti-system contender. Despite being framed as an outsider, her limited political experience and lack of a substantial political track record undermine her appeal.
2024-12-02 13:28:43
Ireland is somehow allowed to have tiktok PM Simon Harris, yet Romania suddenly came under devious tiktok attack, lol.
2024-12-02 14:37:19
top notch entertainment!
2024-12-02 23:11:05
it took one week in Uruguay.
2024-12-04 12:18:26
it is a pity that no there was no market on 2024 Botswana general election.
2024-12-05 13:01:12
Their lifestyle does not justify such sums poured into the campaign on TikTok. Is it a crime now to live a simple and modest life?
2024-12-06 15:42:34
some heavy insider trading by the corrupt judges is clearly going on here.
2024-12-06 15:45:32
, the decision coming just one day after the judges of the Constitutional Court said that such a request was inadmissible. [link removed]
2024-12-06 16:54:29
what else should be done here?
2024-12-06 19:46:34
was Homs ever considered the Alawite stronghold?
2024-12-06 19:55:11
well, I've been in Syria 12 years ago. Aleppo was closed for tourists obviously, some outskirts of Damascus were not considered particularly safe. It seems that not much has changed.
2024-12-07 14:36:11
did they come from Jordan?
2024-12-07 14:40:47
Pro-Israel UMA likely will.
2024-12-08 23:40:35
Maduro is next.
2024-12-09 21:48:11
true, but they need to build a nuclear bomb first.
2024-12-11 18:00:22
With Defense Minister Israel Katz, and with the backing of all the members of the Security Cabinet, I ordered the IDF to seize the buffer zone between us and Syria, as well as the controlling positions close to it.
2024-12-11 18:11:38
UMA is basically a pro-Israel group.
2024-12-12 20:20:00
You've missed the generational_wealth_creation_opportunity in the Syrian market.
2024-12-12 20:26:40
https://x.com/Khamenei_m/status/1861362021423333654 it seems like a duel to me.
2024-12-13 00:02:51
According to a statement provided to Romania’s parliamentary oversight committee, the SRI ruled out any foreign interference, indicating that the phenomenon is solely [link removed] issue came to light following allegations that presidential candidate Mircea Geoana was benefiting from bot networks ahead of the election later this year. // Lmao, initially they were preparing to ban Mircea Geoana.
2024-12-13 11:57:08
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/12/13/en-direct-nouveau-premier-ministre-la-nomination-du-successeur-de-michel-barnier-attendue-vendredi-francois-bayrou-a-ete-recu-a-l-elysee-ce-matin_6437830_823448.html?#id-2092455 why did they publish this?
2024-12-13 12:00:31
During a tense exchange, Francois Bayrou was informed by Emmanuel Macron that he would not be appointed Prime Minister, according to information from "Le Monde".
2024-12-13 14:05:50
This goat seems like a tasty target for some good fiber optic drone.
2024-12-16 11:42:14
Changing profile photos to the Syrian flag hardly puts one into position to impose conditions.
2024-12-17 17:57:19
only a degenerate gambler like you will bet on the French to let Durov leave France and Trump's pardon of Ulbricht at the SAME TIME
2024-12-17 18:13:50
you have no logic behind your bets just blind belief in Justice and someone's words. You got lucky on Hunter's pardon. That was indeed easy, btw.
2024-12-17 18:22:46
I am not a fan of arrogant people. you will lose at least one of the above mentioned bets and likely both.
2024-12-17 19:12:05
that's your prerogative, not mine
2024-12-17 19:14:29
go buy yourself a pack, don't be so obsessed with it
2024-12-19 22:33:41
you can trade against denizz in will-the-us-abandon-syrian-base. This guy apparently just got lucky with the quick fall of Assad.
2024-12-23 21:33:02
In a surprise announcement, the Defense Department said 2,000 U.S. personnel are in Syria to fight ISIS. Until today, U.S. officials consistently reported that only 900 were there.
2024-12-24 08:08:07
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDDoIigsxEg I already regret buying No.
2024-12-25 21:49:26
lol
2024-12-26 00:19:00
get a life!
2024-12-26 13:01:34
https://www.youtube.com/live/emOZPonaGwI?t=15480s
2024-12-26 13:01:39
in the light of this shocking announcement from Senegal YES holders might consider buying even more!
2024-12-26 14:37:32
That is correct. However there is still a chance that Troof is a diplomat from Senegal who knows for sure that the final announcement is coming. In this case posting nonsense about Namibia and Morocco was the best way to accumulate YES shares.
2024-12-27 12:37:57
This is not a type of bet where excessive due diligence pays off.
2024-12-27 12:43:57
of course, he will make a statement !
2024-12-27 13:57:14
Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 was a commercial flight shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Novosibirsk, Russia. On October 13 2001 Ukraine admitted that it might have caused the crash, probably by an errant S-200 missile fired by its armed forces.
2024-12-29 12:21:37
Aliev might issue a clarification soon.
2024-12-29 14:57:37
you are in the wrong market. This is not Azerbaijan-claims-Russia-responsible-for-downing-plane ?
2024-12-29 15:15:22
Ukraine can realistically supply 1/ 10 of the Russian amount.
2024-12-29 22:24:54
Ukraine has sent 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria. LMAO. Russia shipped 300000 tons to Syria this year.
2024-12-31 05:29:48
I was shocked to find out that the AFD was actually founded by respected economists and not Nazis as the MSM wants you to believe.
2025-01-14 15:54:26
By pardoning Ross and nominating him for the administrator of the Bitcoin reserve Trump can give a masterclass on 'weaving'.
2025-01-16 21:27:06
I wonder whether the election of the imam of the Umayyad Mosque might count.
2025-01-17 14:25:52
The exact same argument was made prior to the US election and you can find all those accounts at the top of the ranking.
2025-01-20 02:52:44
He wants it to bounce back.
2025-01-23 15:14:37
Denmark is more likely.
2025-01-26 22:27:48
'The result of the presidential election is announced by the Central Election Commission within 10 days of the election date - so no later than February 5, 2025' said Igor Karpenko (the head of the CEC)
2025-01-26 22:41:37
my mental stop loss is set at 90%.
2025-01-29 22:43:20
He has pardoned Ross Ulbricht exactly as it was promised.
2025-02-02 22:35:39
[link removed]
2025-02-02 22:39:13
However, the SFGCU did not honor its commitment to sell 4-6 million tons of grain to CCEC each year. The SFGCU’s First Deputy Board Chairman Robert Brovdi said that his company had only exported 1.5 million tons of grain to China as of December 3, 2013. Other sources suggest that grain deliveries ranged between 10% and 23% of the agreed volumes.
2025-02-03 01:33:28
Dr. Ghaderi's assessment of the current state of affairs in Iran: "The transitions from the Qajar period to the Pahlavi era in 1925 and the 1979 revolution were both outcomes of political deadlock. Today, we are once again facing the same situation."
2025-02-12 11:19:10
Hatam Ghaderi
2025-02-13 22:00:32
He finds some similarities with the end of the Qajar period. It is an interesting way to look at things. It might be a trivial line of thought for a historian, but it didn't occur to me before to check what happened to the Qajars.
2025-02-17 16:00:06
SOSOACA should be added by Polymarket.
2025-02-23 21:44:19
an initial ceasefire might provide that calm, and even a chance for Zelensky to step back and provide an opportunity for a fresh face, without the uncomfortable history Ukraine’s current leader has with Trump’s first term, to negotiate a wider deal. Zalzyuzhnii could command the loyalty of Ukraine’s armed forces into a less-than perfect accommodation with Moscow. This conflict has defined itself as one of the unexpected. It would be in keeping with the war’s wild vacillations that Zelensky steps aside at Ukraine’s moment of greatest vulnerability.
2025-02-28 09:09:16
CNN insider might know something.
2025-03-07 13:43:50
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4DEtBEXAAAo62T?format=jpg&name=medium The bull thesis for Yes seems pretty solid so far.
2025-03-07 16:11:24
wow, this is huge!
2025-03-12 19:26:17
"I have no one behind me"
2025-03-14 05:52:35
https://www.rferl.org/a/1080986.html
2025-03-14 20:31:06
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrinform-11-assassination-attempts-on-poroshenko-prevented-last-year.html
2025-03-14 20:35:16
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/notorious-ukrainian-neo-nazi-demyan-ganul-killed-in-odessa-glbs-2693760-2025-03-14
2025-03-17 03:32:35
The explosion damaged the prime minister's car and left a large crater on the road. Police said that the bombing seemed to be the work of professionals, and appeared to have been triggered by remote control.
2025-03-18 08:29:22
you might want to post this thesis in the comments section of the bet on political survival of Zelenskyy.
2025-03-19 16:01:35
Rubio on Ukraine war: We are closer to peace than we were two weeks ago. Hungary expects peace in Ukraine in just two weeks - foreign minister.
2025-03-20 21:11:02
Ukraine will never sign anything, they despise the very idea of taking on an obligation.
2025-03-21 14:41:29
The cat’s out of the bag: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hAPNMh0MGY&ab_channel=TuckerCarlson
2025-03-21 21:53:54
the risk of sudden cardiac death is quite high due to unexpected cardiotoxicity. Some users have no demonstrable coronary artery disease even after the cardiac event. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2681611/
2025-03-21 23:42:49
[link removed]
2025-03-23 00:43:41
this is total BS. Ukrainian parliament never voted for this deal.
2025-03-23 01:10:43
Ukrainian parliament was never involved in these discussions.
2025-03-25 03:09:35
The sad thing is that doing any research on world politics is not going to pay off, unless you follow what is posted in some obscure discord chat by some people with rather twisted vision of reality.
2025-03-25 05:56:56
what was that?
2025-03-25 06:25:41
'Other' option should be added, otherwise Big money players who can easily buy 50000+ shares at once probably won't enter this market.
2025-03-25 06:51:57
he probably wanted to create an impression of accidentally sharing some alpha - that's an interesting strategy.
2025-03-25 07:01:31
ok, I see, no biggie. Being a casual reader of Ukrainian tg channels it would be a bit embarassing for me to ask for his sources)
2025-03-25 07:56:39
avoid markets that were disputed twice.
2025-03-26 13:19:09
Tehran supports “a Syrian-led political solution” through free elections. interesting.
2025-03-27 02:52:28
I do.
2025-03-27 07:03:03
there is nowhere to go.
2025-04-02 22:41:23
any thoughts on this ? [link removed]
2025-04-02 22:53:14
"A preventive attack is unlikely to be a solitary event, but rather the opening round of a long campaign employing military strikes, covert action, as well as economic, informational, and other elements of national power".
2025-04-04 12:29:09
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tIuSuAwxhI&ab_channel=SpotlightStories
2025-04-06 14:59:29
if you like to bet on sure things you might want to check this market as well: https://polymarket.com/event/will-syria-hold-national-elections-before-july/will-syria-hold-national-elections-before-july?tid=1743951377670
2025-04-08 12:02:09
Don't forget that dinosaurs are also a Big HOAX! Polymarket should add a bet on this as well.
2025-04-12 16:27:06
where is Kim Du-kwan ?
2025-04-18 20:43:31
wow, thank you for posting this!
2025-04-19 19:31:57
The drone attack took place before the unilateral ceasefire came into effect.
2025-06-30 11:05:19
Why would you want to bet on a poorly defined market?
2025-07-09 21:27:56
Reza Pahlavi is conspicuously missing.
2025-07-22 21:08:01
[link removed].uk/world-news/2025/07/22/zelensky-destroys-ukraine-anti-corruption-agencies/
2025-08-05 09:27:05
Rodrigo Paz is the only candidate who is steadily climbing in polls.
2025-08-07 23:34:31
I wonder whether he can outlive Khamenei.
2025-08-08 17:39:22
You might want to check Ahmad Jannati’s age.
2025-08-14 12:28:07
Azruddin Mohamed should be added.
2025-08-15 16:25:31
The dozen Latin American presidents of the Lima Group who in 2019 rejected Venezuela’s presidential election results from the previous year and recognized Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s interim de jure president have all left office, while Maduro remains in power in Caracas and Guaido, like Gonzalez, has fled Venezuela.
2025-08-16 00:43:53
yeah, but this time might be different!
2025-08-17 17:14:40
He was also buying Manfred Reyes Villa like crazy
2025-08-17 22:55:35
Claure's survey places Andronicus first, followed by Samuel and Tuto [link removed]
2025-08-18 01:01:51
congrats ! I had ~20000 Paz at 0.1 and sold it all below 5% (((
2025-09-27 07:56:23
What is the colour of his party?
2025-10-13 22:58:59
Biya will be out rather sooner than later for obvious natural reasons. And the most credible political alternative supposedly will emerge immediately after the 'event'. Tchiroma represents a 'hastened', suboptimal transition...
2025-10-13 23:04:13
I see that the opposition is trying to push the narrative of 'winning' this election. I appreciate their dedication and enthusiasm, but haven't seen the irrefutable evidence. And by the way Paul Biya is smart enough not to annoy the public with regular media appearances. I am a bit puzzled how a 72-year-old power-hungry candidate with ties to the Biya's regime can be a symbol of change.
2025-10-13 23:22:15
The youth unemployment rate was 6.23% in 2024, also a decrease from the previous year.... Youth Unemployment Rate in France averaged 20.52 percent from 1983 until 2025...
2025-10-19 15:08:46
An Israeli airstrike destroyed a house in the Al-Bureij camp
2025-10-20 14:49:24
with public finances not under immediate pressure, they are quite capable of breaking the Belgian record this time!
2025-10-23 05:25:21
it looks like a power grab against the communist leader.
2025-10-24 05:18:29
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer and friend, said he believed that if the 2026 election were held today, “Lula would win in the first round”
2025-11-02 21:08:05
Polymarket probably should make a bet on Khalifa Haftar as well.
2025-11-02 21:19:33
Hundreds of young people gathered in St. Petersburg to sing an outlawed song calling for Vladimir Putin to be overthrown.
2025-11-06 02:44:07
After the violence of October, a new prime minister is set to take office. Protesters say that won’t change their demands.
2025-11-07 09:39:38
wow she was assaulted by some maniac in the street
2025-11-07 10:06:16
So it means that the strike is basically right around the corner!
2025-11-08 07:35:48
The unrest bears similarities with the Gen Z protest in Nepal, where students rallied against corruption and lack of opportunities and development after the government ordered a ban on social media.
2025-11-13 13:40:47
suicide drone technology has advanced significantly.
2025-11-20 23:11:20
The plan seems more or less reasonable and it addresses the root causes of the conflict. It is a big step forward for sure!
2025-11-30 00:46:18
US can strike Boko Haram's stronghold in the Sambisa forest in north-eastern Nigeria.
2025-12-05 01:50:02
Grok sets the probability of the Iranian regime's collapse in 2026 at 35%.
2025-12-11 00:53:29
this is clearly a fake leak
2025-12-11 03:08:35
They already have money. The point of this operation is not to make a quick buck, but to discredit Polymarket. Sportsbooks might be behind this.
2025-12-11 10:05:47
Oh yeah, blindly buying every rumor and leak the moment it hits 95% credibility is obviously the intelligent approach to trading!
2025-12-11 10:07:06
Who do you think sponsored the South Park episode that featured Polymarket?
2025-12-15 06:46:26
Do you have any idea how it became known that both Piukala and Fusimalohi threw their weight behind Fakafanua at the vote, given that the ballot was secret?
2025-12-15 10:30:56
Cameroonians should rather be proud to hold the absolute record for the oldest ruler.
2025-12-25 02:07:07
Check out how long it usually takes California to count its ballots from Election Day!
2026-01-02 03:56:53
These types of things were impossible at Betmoose.
2026-01-03 14:31:24
Qatar is more likely, imo
2026-01-11 18:59:58
I don’t know much about France, obviously, so I made a lazy bet against Knafo to pick up a few pennies. On second thought, though, Knafo looks very determined and seems to have a lot of enthusiastic supporters behind her. Are we, the "No" holders, in big trouble here?
2026-01-11 19:35:37
what if they can easily push her odds into the 15-20% range and momentum catches up?
2026-01-11 22:50:44
After the US takes over Greenland, Iceland is likely to explore the idea of joining as a US state too.
2026-02-01 14:48:08
in 1991, the underdog BNP snatched away the champion's title from the then-assured winner, the Awami League.
2026-02-06 01:13:52
Sheikh Hasina is missing
2026-02-06 02:17:25
Yeah, I know, but her odds of winning must be higher than those of Khaleda Zia.
2026-02-10 22:45:17
If you're bullish on BJI, grabbing 'no' on BNP hitting a 9%+ in that Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Margin of Victory market is a much safer bet!
2026-02-11 18:48:42
If you believe that BJI will win or otherwise greatly outperform expectations, betting against [BNP +9%] seems like the safest bet! https://polymarket.com/event/bangladesh-parliamentary-election-margin-of-victory/will-the-bangladesh-nationalist-party-bnp-win-the-bangladesh-parliamentary-election-by-9-or-more-953
2026-02-24 13:59:06
He will testify about Dominion Voting Systems and be set free afterward.
2026-03-01 16:14:53
1) Has Iran issued a public, legally binding notice of closure?
No — Iran has broadcast warnings via radio to some ships, but it has not issued a formal, legally binding maritime closure order through recognized legal channels.
2) Has the IMO received a NAVAREA warning about an official closure?
No — there is no confirmed NAVAREA or IMO‑recognized closure warning transmitted to the maritime industry as of now.
2026-03-04 10:55:52
They could select Reza Pahlavi, which would oblige Israel to eliminate him.
2026-03-07 13:34:06
Better odds for YES here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-next-supreme-leader-of-iran-515/will-reza-pahlavi-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran
2026-04-12 07:05:06
[link removed]
2026-04-13 00:36:19
it was long overdue anyway!
2026-04-25 08:08:37
Benin's Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni was officially confirmed to have won the West African country's presidential election, according to final results on Thursday.
The Constitutional Court confirmed the provisional tally announced last week, which gave outgoing President Patrice Talon's successor a landslide win.
2026-05-13 15:59:24
redeeming finally worked out for me today!
2026-07-04 19:04:52
The rules are a bit misleading here. There is no runoff election; there is only a runoff count (sometimes called the "second stage" of the count).
The intended meaning was probably the following:
If a candidate wins with more than 50% of the first-preference votes, the margin is simply the difference between the top two candidates based on first-preference votes. Otherwise, the margin is the difference between the top two candidates after second-preference transfers have been applied.
In any case, clarification from Polymarket is needed here.
2026-07-11 14:13:11
you can suggest a market on the Negeri Sembilan election in the Polymarket Discord.
2026-07-20 15:20:35
A maritime encounter is not the same as a military clash.
2026-07-20 15:27:35
China keeps its actions below the threshold for conventional military conflict
2026-07-20 15:37:53
Academic databases, international media (Reuters, AP), and legal experts classify the use of sticks, paddles, and rammings by the Coast Guard as coercive law enforcement actions, not a conventional "military encounter."
2026-07-31 15:12:00
United Russia will win easily! 💪
2026-08-01 13:42:43
Congratulations!
I somehow thought the election would be tomorrow! Lol.
2026-08-07 12:49:15
I really wonder why a sudden sell-off happened, especially since 'Yes' was in a clear uptrend from mid-January!
2026-08-07 12:54:11
Yeah, but the price can still bounce back. It has happened before )
2026-08-07 23:13:51
Yoon Suk Yeol was briefly released from detention on bail in March 2025. So who knows what can happen…
2026-09-09 19:43:28
bro, let them buy more YES!
2026-09-21 13:38:17
Hopefully, you will be able to afford a trip to St. Petersburg and a visit to the Hermitage one day.
2026-09-30 18:11:10
стадионного концерта точно не будет в СПБ в этом месяце, но вот какая-то утешительная private party?
2026-10-03 03:43:48
Музей Средневековья и пыток в Сукко предложил американскому рэперу Канье Уэсту провести специальное выступление в Краснодарском крае.