Account Information
Name:
bernardbulletin
Bio:
follow me on Twitter and see my pinned post to find my Substack :-D
Pseudonym:
Functional-Heartthrob
Created:
2024-09-11 05:13:50
Last Activity:
2 weeks ago
Tier:
Silver
X:
@bernardbulletin
profile-image-765853-745c728b-99ca-4c24-8b78-3fc38c3477b7.png
Total Profit
$185,765
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$224,252.66
Markets traded
2,326
Trades
2,295
Largest win
$9,744.62
Profile views
31,816
Join date
2024-09-11 05:13:50
All-time rank
1079
All-time PnL
$185,764.82
All-time volume
$6,412,856.99
All-time profit
$185,764.82
Lifetime volume
$6,407,383.97
PnL series latest
$240,359.58
PnL series start
$240,844.94
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$50,917.17
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Yes | 31980.0698 | $9,744.62 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 19641.253 | $9,511.74 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 22434.8998 | $8,418.08 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 16624.2572 | $-9,112.11 |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | Yes | 14483.8377 | $-6,477.28 |
| Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? | Yes | 7358.7767 | $-3,320.20 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 120061.9219 | $0.30 | $0.57 | $68,615.39 | $33,018.69 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 19580.2877 | $0.69 | $0.71 | $13,999.91 | $489.56 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 608714.4212 | $0.01 | $0.02 | $11,869.93 | $6,459.33 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 168591.4362 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $8,851.05 | $2,173.75 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 15184.9664 | $0.51 | $0.57 | $8,731.36 | $964.79 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Yes | 31980.0698 | $9,744.62 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 19641.253 | $9,511.74 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 22434.8998 | $8,418.08 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 15281.3694 | $7,918.46 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | No | 29133.49 | $7,566.15 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | No | $0.06 | 5195.56 | $318.05 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 20%-25%? | No | $0.81 | 156.94 | $128.09 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 25%-30%? | No | $0.86 | 20 | $17.30 |
| 2 weeks ago | TRADE | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 20%-25%? | No | $0.87 | 100.52 | $87.91 |
| 2 weeks ago | REDEEM | Will Trump say "Granite" this week? | Yes | $0.00 | 25 | $25.00 |
Recent trades (2295)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | No | $0.06 | 5195.56 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 20%-25%? | No | $0.81 | 156.94 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 25%-30%? | No | $0.86 | 20 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 20%-25%? | No | $0.87 | 100.52 |
| 2 weeks ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Granite" this week? | Yes | $1.00 | 25 |
Comments
2025-07-01 11:25:04
Go Zohran!!!!
2025-08-13 11:44:26
I wonder if anyone will try to argue that "kingdom" is a compound word for "king"
2025-08-13 11:57:54
Yes on Ukraine/Russia feels like a decent wager at 33. Vance will have just come from a big group call with the European leaders and Zelensky. It's easy to imagine him weaving it into his speech. I'm still taking the under, but it's a pretty fair bet.
2025-08-13 12:00:08
I appreciate the Long Rules
2025-08-13 15:25:32
4/5 on Ukraine/Russia!
2025-08-13 15:34:28
Got destroyed on the Ass market. GG everyone
2025-08-18 09:29:26
No
2025-08-18 10:59:56
IIRC the original rules made it clear that Erin would not count. Under the clarified rules, Erin should count, since it was designated a hurricane on Aug. 15. (Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 17)
2025-08-18 11:02:03
The rule change completely flipped the meaning of this market and made it over the moment the change went into effect. I think they made this mistake in the course of trying to fix another ambiguity.
2025-08-18 12:08:09
I would like to know this as well
2025-08-18 19:32:30
T/M/B has hit 12 exactly
2025-08-19 13:40:00
how so
2025-08-19 14:14:08
i like his tiktok
2025-08-19 14:45:49
please fill my bids
2025-08-22 20:21:18
GG
2025-08-23 02:55:52
lets ride
2025-08-23 03:14:18
ofc it's a completely different korea
2025-08-23 03:33:34
good luck
2025-08-24 23:04:42
glhf
2025-08-25 00:09:30
GG
2025-08-25 00:17:06
probably
2025-08-25 15:54:35
GG
2025-08-25 17:40:25
GG
2025-09-01 23:27:03
ggs
2025-09-02 19:20:46
gg
2025-09-03 17:29:39
NYPost - Eric Adams, White House in talks over Trump admin job -- as pressure mounts for NYC mayoral candidates to sink Zohran Mamdani: sources
2025-09-03 17:29:55
NYT - Trump Advisers Have Discussed a Job for Adams to Quit Mayor’s Race
2025-09-04 15:40:07
hard agree
2025-09-04 21:29:37
i’d dump now if i were you
2025-09-04 23:47:50
yay
2025-09-04 23:51:11
NYT: Adams Considers Dropping Out of Race After Secret Meeting in Florida
2025-09-04 23:53:17
CNN: NYC Mayor Eric Adams met with top Trump aide amid talk of his ending reelection bid, source says
2025-09-05 00:02:55
bye bye
2025-09-05 00:19:34
amen
2025-09-05 01:32:50
yes
2025-09-05 15:11:14
NYT - Breaking News: An effort to get Eric Adams to drop out of the New York City mayor's race is said to involve a plan for President Trump to nominate him as ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
2025-09-05 15:11:40
Jeff Coltin - Mayor Eric Adams’ office just canceled his planned press conference this morning on Ending the Culture of Anything Goes.
2025-09-05 15:12:03
Katie Honan - The mayor’s campaign spox has not answered calls or texts all morning and nothing was previously scheduled
2025-09-05 15:13:18
Jeff Coltin: Mayor Eric Adams’ office just canceled his planned press conference this morning on Ending the Culture of Anything Goes.
2025-09-05 15:13:48
Sahalie Donaldson: A spokesperson for the mayor's office says that this was canceled due to a conflict with the campaign and to reach out to them for more information. No response from the mayor's campaign spokesperson on what that might be yet.
2025-09-05 15:14:19
Katie Honan: The mayor’s campaign spox has not answered calls or texts all morning and nothing was previously scheduled
2025-09-06 16:01:45
no
2025-09-08 16:56:47
gg
2025-09-09 18:09:06
very good
2025-09-10 00:36:39
gg
2025-09-11 14:01:07
gg
2025-09-11 14:10:32
GG
2025-09-11 14:51:18
gg
2025-09-12 13:04:10
gg
2025-09-17 20:28:25
gg
2025-09-21 23:35:20
gg
2025-09-22 18:50:38
yes
2025-09-28 18:36:12
gg
2025-10-01 21:19:24
i wish no crew a very nice evening
2025-10-08 21:31:07
gg
2025-10-08 23:07:04
fhew
2025-10-23 15:29:12
gg
2025-10-23 15:29:27
gg wp
2025-10-30 02:19:58
GG yes gang
2025-10-30 05:00:57
marry me
2025-10-30 12:43:34
no
2025-10-30 12:44:16
no
2025-10-30 22:04:36
i was thinking the same thing
2025-10-31 03:40:03
Happy Halloween :)
2025-11-02 14:18:19
the N word indeed
2025-11-03 20:47:22
no
2025-11-03 23:38:17
Jones is a steal at under 45. He’s narrowly led 3 of the past 6 polls, and Dems are on track for a blowout in VA.
2025-11-04 01:52:40
And now he’s at 50%
2025-11-04 12:37:42
The average Harris lead of the four polls conducted in the week before Election Day 2024 was 6%. She won the state by 5.78%.
2025-11-04 16:31:03
Well over 100,000
2025-11-04 20:23:25
And now he's at 60% :)
2025-11-04 20:32:19
As expected, D🔵 turnout is huge today, and the market has flipped way past 50-50. Jones is climbing hard with just hours to go to closing time.
2025-11-06 13:09:25
GG :)
2025-11-07 01:14:18
Thank you press GG
2025-11-10 01:50:01
Cloture is now guaranteed. The bill will move on to amendment and final passage.
2025-11-10 01:50:32
For those unclear about the timeline:
2025-11-10 18:40:46
GG N gang
2025-11-10 22:40:35
For anyone interested, I map out the exact steps to ending this shutdown (and resolving this market) on my pinned tweet (please ignore the typo). Bottom line: Nov. 8-11 NOs are bonds. Nov. 12-15 Ys strike me as an extremely safe bet.
2025-11-10 23:19:34
Correct
2025-11-11 00:03:31
What do you mean by "fast-track"
2025-11-11 00:46:22
The website could be hacked
2025-11-11 11:22:55
what was last year's scam
2025-11-12 21:55:06
add me on Twitter
2025-11-12 22:33:48
Just caught the tail end of that dip
2025-11-12 23:36:42
The rule package has passed. One hour of debate, leading to a vote on the final passage.
2025-11-12 23:50:09
Interesting
2025-11-13 01:25:20
Trump is scheduled to sign the bill in 1 hour 20 minutes.
2025-11-13 02:25:38
[link removed]: Due to the enactment of a continuing resolution, all Department of Labor agencies have resumed full operations as of Thursday, November 13, 2025.
2025-12-19 11:21:55
Does anyone else picture Alex Parker as the son in Anora?
2025-12-19 13:26:03
How so?
2025-12-19 15:03:25
They should really write this down somewhere
2025-12-19 15:18:50
what does your screenname mean
2025-12-19 16:33:30
what does this mean
2025-12-19 21:02:13
GG N holders :)
2025-12-19 21:02:36
Much respect to Alexparker for his conviction play -- it didn't pay off, but I'm excited to see what he does next.
2025-12-20 14:10:01
hello where does it refer to the release of the entire set of documents?
2025-12-20 14:13:10
[link removed] here you go
2025-12-20 14:14:07
tell grok that new materials were released
2025-12-20 14:14:36
heres something new [link removed]
2025-12-20 14:15:46
are these illegal activities [link removed]
2025-12-20 15:20:23
i love the irs
2025-12-20 15:21:19
weird, my AI said this was always going to go Y
2025-12-20 15:31:00
too late for what
2025-12-20 16:38:40
wait, really??
2025-12-20 16:41:04
sure here you go [link removed]
2025-12-20 16:41:45
no dont
2025-12-20 16:43:28
i showed the files to Claude and it said this was always going to resolve Yes, and anyone who bought No squandered their money
2025-12-21 01:59:37
the terms of the contract were all met
2025-12-21 02:21:26
i read both the rules and the associated release, which is why i didn’t squander $48 betting against an outcome that had already taken place
2025-12-21 02:23:44
here you go [link removed] gg
2025-12-21 02:27:07
no it doesn’t
2025-12-21 02:28:38
here you go friend [link removed]
2025-12-21 02:28:56
no
2025-12-21 02:29:21
good luck
2025-12-21 02:49:16
the terms of this market have been met, so every strike will resolve Yes. the new market pertains to further releases of Epstein material
2025-12-21 03:13:49
agreed
2025-12-21 03:24:24
3:55 PM Dec. 19 ET
2025-12-21 11:19:36
the real chance is exactly 0, which is why people are buying yes shares for 99.9 cents.
2025-12-21 11:19:45
hey that is weird
2025-12-21 11:19:59
what do you think that means
2025-12-21 11:21:30
because the market will resolve Yes, so it’s free money with no risk
2025-12-21 11:22:15
interesting, what did those files say?
2025-12-21 11:22:36
wow, what did those files say?
2025-12-21 11:22:55
the odds are exactly zero
2025-12-21 11:42:37
what was in the files that were deleted?
2025-12-21 11:43:39
it’s a free $60
2025-12-21 11:45:15
with 0 risk
2025-12-21 12:02:03
PSA: If you’re trying to trick the UMA into misresolving this market to “No,” the outcome you should be arguing for is “P4 - Too Early.” Only one “No” holder in the dispute thread has been smart enough to realize this. The rest are all clumsily begging for P1, an impossible resolution based on the time of proposal.
2025-12-21 12:02:32
report it to the good tweet award committee for being a good tweet
2025-12-21 12:16:21
here you go, here’s a qualifying file [link removed] gg
2025-12-21 12:17:49
if you knew that the No side was so hopeless that it could only prevail through fraud, why did you buy more worthless shares?
2025-12-21 12:23:47
which uma disputed markets have you been through
2025-12-21 12:37:37
if i were worried about my position i would just sell and take my $10,000 profit. i would have no trouble finding a buyer since my shares are worth $1 each.
2025-12-21 12:39:53
i did read the rules, which is why i wisely purchased Yes shares after learning the criteria of the contract had been met
2025-12-21 12:42:44
how much did you make on those markets
2025-12-21 12:45:07
what was your LSAT score
2025-12-21 12:47:32
about $64
2025-12-21 12:50:31
don’t worry about it, others will search the database for you
2025-12-21 12:51:38
if i hadn’t read the rules, i probably would have done something remarkably stupid, like betting No on something that had already happened
2025-12-21 12:53:12
which side are the whales on this time?
2025-12-21 13:02:28
dont worry about it, others will figure these things out for you. just keep wagering
2025-12-21 13:03:34
are you on the side that the whales are on this time?
2025-12-21 13:05:01
did the files involve illegal activities?
2025-12-21 13:05:38
is larceny a crime
2025-12-21 13:12:28
“On December 19, the Trump administration publicly released qualifying files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein” gg
2025-12-21 13:13:39
i cant find anything in the rules requiring the transparency act to be qualified, but i did find this:
2025-12-21 13:13:48
“On December 19, the Trump administration publicly released qualifying files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein”
2025-12-21 13:16:04
if you can prove beyond reasonable doubt that both of the files i tweeted had been publicly available prior to the Jan. 19 release, I will sell all of my shares right now
2025-12-21 13:18:50
good luck on your finals
2025-12-21 13:22:55
interesting, what do you think will happen now?
2025-12-21 13:26:49
do you believe that the UMA whales, many of whom own huge Yes positions, will vote to ignore the explicit Polymarket instruction that all of the terms of the contract have been met along with the abundant evidence of the same, and instead favor the incoherent and dishonest AI slop arguments in this comment section?
2025-12-21 13:42:53
do you believe that the UMA whales, many of whom own huge Yes positions, will vote to ignore the explicit Polymarket instruction that all of the terms of the contract have been met along with the abundant evidence of the same, and instead favor the incoherent and dishonest AI slop arguments in this comment section?
2025-12-21 13:43:59
since the odds of a No resolution are exactly 0, betting on No is in fact the lowest yielding wager
2025-12-21 14:00:12
which of these exceptions do you believe apply
2025-12-21 14:00:44
the bonders thank you for your donation
2025-12-21 14:05:17
you would need to trick them into disregarding both the substantial evidence that the criteria for a Yes resolution have been met and Polymarket’s explicit clarification that the Dec. 19 release of the Epstein files qualifies
2025-12-21 14:06:47
Chag sameach!
2025-12-21 14:09:44
looks like they made $500 risk-free. how much did you make on this market?
2025-12-21 14:13:18
since your only bets have been on the Epstein files to not be released (made after they were released) and on Jake Paul to win, that’s probably good for your finances
2025-12-21 15:18:41
its fun to pretend
2025-12-21 16:55:03
check out the news when you get a chance
2025-12-21 16:56:31
[link removed] gg, here you go
2025-12-21 17:28:12
1) irrelevant; 2) irrelevant; 3) the contract does not require proof of criminality, only reference to illegal acts; 4) i find i learn quite a bit when talking to my counterparties
2025-12-21 18:06:42
no
2025-12-21 19:03:37
here are the illegal activities [link removed] gg
2025-12-21 19:07:49
do you need the term “illegal” defined for you
2025-12-21 19:15:57
call your local police station and ask them if threatening to burn someone’s house down is illegal
2025-12-21 19:30:31
oh well in that case i suppose you’ve won your bet. congratulations on making $130,000
2025-12-21 19:52:46
agreed
2025-12-21 20:40:17
WTF This wasn’t supposed to happen
2025-12-21 20:43:08
do you imagine that criminal court records are not about illegal activities?
2025-12-21 21:20:02
no
2025-12-22 07:02:20
heres the proof [link removed] sorry you bet against something that already happened
2025-12-22 07:36:21
what do you believe “substantive” means in this context?
2025-12-22 09:20:24
because the market will resolve Yes
2025-12-22 11:51:11
small claims court, from the looks of it
2025-12-22 11:59:36
here you go [link removed] gg :)
2025-12-22 12:01:14
The smartest investment is a bet against something that has already happened. That’s why I’m putting my winnings here towards Toronto to win the 2025 World Series
2025-12-22 12:03:01
File a complaint with every entity that does not regulate event contracts. Hit up the EPA. Tell the FDA. Make sure the ASPCA knows about this fraud
2025-12-22 12:10:59
Y is literally free money
2025-12-22 12:12:34
I’m scared that you’re right. You use to have hundreds of thousands of Yes shares. I wonder what else you might know
2025-12-22 12:22:19
what would this accomplish
2025-12-22 13:32:38
Proverbs 13:11
2025-12-22 15:04:03
why don’t you buy them?
2025-12-22 15:04:36
Proverbs 13:11
2025-12-22 16:29:58
the chance is 0, and those people are donating their money to more intelligent traders
2025-12-22 16:33:07
here you go [link removed] gg friend :)
2025-12-22 16:35:53
anger -- bargaining
2025-12-22 16:36:26
capitalism is destoying the world
2025-12-22 16:52:01
gg
2025-12-22 16:52:34
how did polymarket cover up epstein’s crimes
2025-12-22 17:14:07
When you make $100,000, do you plan to buy TikTok Sale Announced N with it and turn it into $100,000,000?
2025-12-22 17:29:49
here you go walter, here's the illegal activity [link removed] gg
2025-12-22 18:11:39
[link removed] here you go
2025-12-22 18:33:13
here you go [link removed] gg
2025-12-22 20:38:15
did you buy $1000 worth of No shares because an AI told you to?
2025-12-22 20:47:53
[link removed]
2025-12-22 21:51:46
heres such a file [link removed] gg
2025-12-22 21:56:16
There are some real sick people on this site trying to exploit loopholes. I heard there are even some folks who are so dishonest, they’re trying to effectuate a fraudulent market resolution so they can make a 1000x gain on a failed bet.
2025-12-23 00:09:27
its not supposed to be this close!!
2025-12-23 00:21:57
IF YOURE IN LINE STAY IN LINE
2025-12-23 00:28:53
how
2025-12-23 00:38:15
but how do we margin call the uma professor
2025-12-23 00:44:26
if the uninformed and greedy were banned from polymarket, who would bet against things that have already happened?
2025-12-23 00:47:08
do you think this will happen
2025-12-23 00:52:52
HODL
2025-12-23 09:34:27
absolutely
2025-12-23 09:36:47
oh no
2025-12-23 09:49:14
This might be your last chance to buy cheap No shares
2025-12-23 11:59:28
i feel well after your shameless attempt to defraud others out of $100,000 failed miserably
2025-12-23 13:06:43
After Bed Bath & Beyond declared bankruptcy, some bagholders doubled down on their failed bet by purchasing now-worthless corporate bonds for pennies on the dollar. Unrelated, but if you want to vote on resolution, you can buy and stake UMA tokens.
2025-12-23 13:49:44
You have to go the Polymarket Discord and post “Title 27 Oracle Failure Override,” along with a 5-paragraph request for administrative resolution to the review channel
2025-12-23 13:49:53
do NOT do this though
2025-12-23 13:50:04
not while we’re so close to resolution
2025-12-23 16:25:55
thats exactly what a secret Yes holder would say….
2025-12-23 16:27:27
lol yeah. how much did you profit BTW?
2025-12-23 19:15:25
for a dispute like this, yes
2025-12-23 22:38:50
are you still buying No shares
2025-12-26 15:26:26
A longshot of course, but Point 20 of Ukraine’s latest draft states, “ 20. Once all parties agree to this agreement, a full ceasefire will take effect immediately.”
2025-12-26 19:01:02
Considering the dispute in the last market, these rules should have been revised.
2025-12-26 19:54:23
Tick-tock - there’s still no statement from the White House.
2025-12-27 14:21:21
how do you know
2025-12-27 22:32:41
is testimony a form of evidence
2025-12-30 15:49:40
Hideous contract writing. Pool reports should be sufficient to answer this question, yet if the rules are strictly applied, this is an N bond.
2025-12-31 14:49:28
Sorry Alexparker, but this ought to go Y both by the facts and by common sense.
2025-12-31 15:00:37
not sure, but what’s the probability a clarification would go to either side
2026-01-21 19:40:39
I found it rather simple
2026-01-21 19:47:10
gg
2026-01-22 17:56:54
[link removed] The DOJ has prepared charges against Lemon. Now they just need a magistrate -- or a grand jury -- to sign off on it. Hard to think Bondi is willing to let this go.
2026-01-25 01:12:05
The strikes Minnesota, Eisenhower, MIT, Romania, and San Antonio were randomly generated.
2026-01-25 17:33:10
close and pay
2026-01-25 19:49:39
the people clamor for it
2026-01-25 22:59:38
Is it time for the Waller surge?
2026-01-26 15:27:48
i made the mentions
2026-01-28 12:27:37
one of the random strikes hit :D
2026-01-28 14:51:59
Actually, two of the random strikes have hit so far
2026-01-28 16:53:31
That isn't a plural
2026-01-28 17:14:45
sorry
2026-01-29 02:58:38
50 hours for the Senate to pass a compromise package, the House to be called back to pass it, and Trump to sign.
2026-01-29 18:46:05
67
2026-01-30 03:52:04
The Senate is going home with no vote and no deal. Graham has placed a hold on the bill.
2026-01-30 16:35:56
GG :)
2026-01-30 17:04:23
GG :)
2026-01-30 17:18:17
The Rules committee is meeting Sunday so the rule will be ready for Monday. There is 0 chance that the shutdown will end before Monday.
2026-01-30 18:58:13
As I explain here, the price of 3+ days should in fact be HIGHER than the price for the main shutdown market, because this market employes a more flexible ruleset. [link removed]
2026-01-30 19:52:07
In fact, for the shutdown to qualify and begin Saturday, the OPM doesn't even need to update the status page. It needs only to announce to the agencies affected that a shutdown is in effect. Since the OMB has already said they will issue the shutdown order after midnight, this is a virtual bond.
2026-01-30 21:55:03
OMB has already said that the affected agencies will commence shutdown procedures.
2026-01-30 22:03:11
OMB has already said that the affected agencies will commence shutdown procedures. The call has been pre-made
2026-01-31 00:24:34
If it begin Saturday and ends Monday or later, as will happen, it will resolve to 3+ days
2026-01-31 00:30:47
No, that would resolve 3+ days Y
2026-01-31 00:48:34
The contract includes partial days. So Saturday is 1 day, Sunday is 1 day, and Monday is 1 day.
2026-01-31 01:14:38
us birds didn't
2026-01-31 01:45:33
correct
2026-01-31 01:46:09
House passage is not a guarantee.
2026-01-31 01:46:46
Sorry I misread your question. Of course that would not count as a win.
2026-01-31 01:48:36
The government will still be closed Monday.
2026-01-31 03:41:17
tell them what?
2026-01-31 03:44:07
good luck man
2026-01-31 05:08:38
GG :)
2026-02-01 23:21:17
Who’s holding the line on 4+? ;)
2026-02-02 22:06:39
Whales might fiddle with the odds, but on no news (other than the House rule passing committee), expect 5+ N to pop to the 70-75 range overnight. Johnson & leadership do not sound like they're the slightest bit concerned.
2026-02-03 00:47:15
Which whale will have the honor of taking us to 90 tonight?
2026-02-03 13:56:58
correct, i don't think it is at all likely
2026-02-03 17:56:22
GOP holdouts with frivolous objections folded?
2026-02-03 18:15:05
he cant keep getting away with this!
2026-02-03 21:46:57
GG :) See you in two weeks
2026-02-03 22:09:49
HODL
2026-02-05 19:09:28
it looks like if you're able to liquidate all your shares at the current price you'll walk away with a cool $4,400. but i have a hunch about what will actually happen
2026-02-06 00:28:17
GG :)
2026-02-11 00:03:51
let's go Paesi Bassi
2026-02-11 13:17:46
I have a feeling Trump is about to strike El Paso
2026-02-15 22:27:18
It never began though?
2026-02-16 16:14:18
Can these rules please be fixed before this market reaches $1 billion in volume? The party that will control the Senate immediately following the 2026 elections will continue to be the Republican Party, since the new Congress will not be sworn in until January. Better language would be "This market will resolve to the party that wins control of the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections and runoff elections," with an added specification that the market may be resolvable immediately upon the determination of a winner by a consensus of credible reporting. If that's too nettlesome, something along the lines of, "The party of the majority leader at the start of the 120th Congress, provided the winners of all Nov. 3, 2026 elections have been seated" could be used as well.
2026-02-19 18:54:30
Can’t punt the Hunt
2026-02-20 03:09:53
6 7 :)
2026-02-20 05:49:44
what an evil man
2026-02-24 19:51:49
6 7 :)
2026-02-25 02:02:36
6 7 sir
2026-02-25 03:43:32
mr president please say 6 7
2026-02-26 22:55:13
$14,000 in profit if you cash out right this second
2026-02-27 01:05:16
6 7
2026-02-27 18:24:32
6 7 :)
2026-03-04 16:28:40
Where's Judy?
2026-03-08 13:33:54
RIP
2026-03-09 22:53:01
Six Seven :(
2026-03-10 07:55:43
hi
2026-03-13 20:52:48
FLIP FLIP FLIP
2026-03-15 09:42:10
sweet, free money from antisemites
2026-03-15 12:36:51
are you from the future😳
2026-03-15 14:46:31
what if it’s AI 😳
2026-03-15 14:49:37
thanks for the free $300. do keep taking investment advice from Candace Owens ☺️
2026-03-15 23:03:05
50-50 this summer
2026-03-16 00:16:40
GG :(
2026-03-16 00:23:35
well done Ayatollah Ys. at the buzzer :)
2026-03-16 00:23:47
he said Khamanei
2026-03-16 01:35:44
[link removed]
2026-03-16 01:38:27
"Khamenei" [link removed] 11:50
2026-03-16 01:44:17
He is without question saying Khamenei, and referring to him with an acceptable pronunciation.
2026-03-16 05:03:12
The full statement, which is not contested: "Now, they put out a notice two days ago that we're going to kill, we're going to shoot and kill any protester; and they don't have guns, meaning the protesters, they have no guns. So I can fully understand why they're doing that. One other thing that was AI-generated, they showed about 250,000 people in a square showing how much they love Khamenei."
Trump is plainly referring to Khamenei here, and it's ridiculous to argue otherwise.
2026-03-17 20:29:04
wow, who’s in charge of israel now?
2026-03-17 20:29:39
what a mystery
2026-03-17 20:57:10
I think Netanyahu is alive, but the videos are also AI. Not sure how this resolves
2026-03-18 14:33:30
thats the spirit
2026-03-18 14:34:10
AI is “hot” right now
2026-03-18 17:09:36
headline.360 has spoken. time to buy more Netanyahu Ys
2026-03-18 17:10:58
headline 360 has spoken. close and pay
2026-03-21 02:23:29
which 2 famous person died
2026-03-21 18:29:54
must be rigged
2026-03-21 21:04:58
sorry gang gg
2026-03-23 03:59:02
6 7
2026-03-23 15:46:55
wow RIP my Ns at 10 AM on Monday
2026-03-23 16:22:03
hes got transgender on the brain
2026-03-23 17:47:52
oh boy
2026-03-24 16:34:26
gg 🪿
2026-03-25 09:54:03
6 7
2026-03-25 11:05:50
Netanyahu has died and been replaced by an AI, but I regret to announce that the AI has also died
2026-03-25 17:07:03
what even is the rationale of buying both March 31 Y and April 30 Y
2026-03-25 22:05:05
These trap strikes are out of control
2026-03-26 22:30:29
gg
2026-03-27 01:59:38
appreciate the definition of dancing
2026-03-27 17:17:09
Six Seven :)
2026-03-27 18:00:42
I think it counts, but others believe that Trump meant to say "Six Seventh Eight Thousand," a phrase that has certainly ever been uttered by a human being before
2026-03-27 18:49:44
Six Seven is a meme BTW. That's why he said it
2026-03-27 19:01:51
It's a meme. Look it up on KnowYourMeme
2026-03-27 23:18:49
yes
2026-03-27 23:19:02
both crypto and bitcoin in fact. so it should pay double
2026-03-29 03:07:49
Many ignored it, but Trump told reporters on Mar. 13 that he had spoken with Xi about the Iran War.
2026-03-29 03:34:09
Because I don't want to wait through the UMA dispute
2026-03-29 03:56:26
The timing of the conversation between Trump and Xi is established by Leavitt's statement to Fox News on Mar. 16 regarding "leader-to-leader conversations that are currently taking place." Leavitt also said at a press briefing on Mar. 25 that, "there was a discussion about the rescheduling of the meeting between the President and President Xi."
2026-03-29 04:11:19
How do you interpret "leader-to-leader conversations that are currently taking place?" I think that refers to conversations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
2026-03-30 21:40:27
I guess Chims was right after all. He never loses with Xi.
2026-03-31 13:02:30
why so confident about chicago. the event is clearly in Washington, DC
2026-04-01 03:30:46
told you it wasn’t in chicago
2026-04-01 06:40:59
gg
2026-04-01 22:28:25
probable Y
2026-04-01 22:28:33
six seven
2026-04-02 18:58:14
gg bonders
2026-04-08 20:55:20
nice
2026-04-10 13:11:05
What’s funny about the rules is the notice of denunciation, per Article 13, must be sent to the US. So the underlying should be more like, “the US sends notice to the US that it’s leaving NATO.”
2026-04-10 14:07:47
awful call by me
2026-04-12 21:46:51
bye bye
2026-04-17 21:08:00
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open?, the longest thread in prediction market history, closed after 50,000 posts
2026-04-18 05:59:02
such is life
2026-04-19 11:16:08
you should focus on enjoying life no matter what you do
2026-04-19 12:49:51
We have to stop data centers
2026-04-19 18:54:54
there are concepts of a plan
2026-04-19 19:46:10
80 N tonite? 80 N queen? 👀
2026-04-19 21:40:47
gl Fernando, Christ is King
2026-04-19 23:03:07
man you talk a lot for someone with $50 riding on this
2026-04-19 23:03:16
relax please
2026-04-21 21:49:58
It brings me no pleasure to report that "where's" does not resolve Y for "where is"
2026-04-21 22:06:10
Not true. "Where is" and "where's" are perfectly distinguishable. Example: [link removed] at 35:25 Trump says both.
2026-04-21 22:10:04
Each of those 4 times he says "where's" instead of "where is." One can tell by hearing the absence of a consonant between "where" and the "s" sound. Check prior Trump speeches to hear distinguish between the way he says both. It is not the same thing. As the rules state, "other forms" do not count.
2026-04-21 22:20:21
I listened to the same tape as you. I listened to it over again on different speeds. He says the contraction "where's" instead of the phrase "where is" in all 4 instances.
2026-04-21 23:02:26
told you
2026-04-22 16:52:22
what is the pope / leo dispute
2026-04-24 11:12:20
AI data centers pose significant environmental and social risks by consuming excessive power and water, creating noise and e-waste, and placing a heavy burden on local infrastructure while offering minimal community benefits. We need a nationwide ban on AI NOW.
2026-04-24 23:09:24
trump does not love a dance
2026-04-25 00:47:51
gg
2026-04-25 00:52:38
2 million N shares, wow
2026-04-25 12:53:38
who the hell is elaine culotti
2026-04-26 02:05:09
lol trump himself was literally physically removed from the dinner
2026-04-26 21:12:25
Stop the steal
2026-04-29 09:56:12
AI is a blight on society
2026-04-29 13:18:32
🚨
2026-04-29 18:42:15
RIP me
2026-04-29 23:38:53
yay🦒
2026-04-29 23:50:46
let's go Miller
2026-04-29 23:52:09
Bernie: "A moratorium will give us the chance to figure out how to make sure that AI benefits the working families of this country, not just a handful of billionaires who want more and more wealth and more and more power."
2026-04-29 23:52:23
Bernie: "If there are no jobs and humans won't be needed for most things, how do people get an income to feed their families, to get healthcare or to pay the rent? There's not been one serious word of discussion in the Congress about that reality."
2026-04-29 23:52:41
Bernie: "I will be pushing for a moratorium on the construction of data centers that are powering the unregulated sprint to develop & deploy AI. The moratorium will give democracy a chance to catch up, and ensure that the benefits of technology work for all of us, not just the 1%."
2026-04-30 14:11:54
yeah it is
2026-04-30 20:07:34
oh no, why is Yes going up
2026-05-01 01:15:48
oh wow this went N?
2026-05-01 10:52:43
None
2026-05-01 17:19:58
Six Seven lol
2026-05-03 23:49:35
wheres judy
2026-05-04 09:24:33
67
2026-05-04 16:48:43
None
2026-05-04 16:49:00
this but for ai
2026-05-04 17:10:37
its Miller Time
2026-05-05 00:05:56
Six Seven
2026-05-05 01:02:40
i'm with kamala
2026-05-06 17:18:53
Six Seven
2026-05-07 23:24:01
no NQE strike??
2026-05-07 23:37:16
Nice,
2026-05-08 01:19:38
eastern time
2026-05-08 15:36:35
Disputable. The referendum was effectively cancelled by the VA Supreme Court ruling, and no official referendum results have been published by the VA Department of Elections.
2026-05-08 15:47:58
Resolving No Pass before the litigation concluded was a mistake, but maybe there is no way to fix it
2026-05-08 15:49:05
Is it true that negrisk markets *must* have one strike resolve Y? In a technical sense I mean.
2026-05-08 18:20:14
yay
2026-05-14 13:12:51
gg Peng disbelievers
2026-05-14 19:16:17
six seven lol
2026-05-15 17:10:07
gg
2026-05-16 18:32:33
it's funny how people who bet on words semi-professionally seem to constantly have trouble with stuff like this
2026-05-16 20:02:03
gg, same time tomorrow?
2026-05-16 23:21:18
are you the real tiffany
2026-05-17 11:30:29
six seven
2026-05-17 13:13:35
None
2026-05-17 15:16:45
.
2026-05-17 21:00:17
leave Jessica out of this
2026-05-17 22:58:15
you could sell right now for a 1000% return
2026-05-17 23:00:19
You are literally going to throw away a 1000% return because Grok told you to. Smh
2026-05-17 23:01:16
how did you lose 50 grand
2026-05-17 23:07:16
you literally managed to buy in for .002. earlier today you could have gotten a 4500% return on them. instead you plan to hold them to zero. my god, what is wrong with you people
2026-05-18 01:03:10
it means if the visit does not occur by May 31, the market will resolve to No
2026-05-18 01:06:33
you are slowly torching a 1000% return, something every trader salivates over. legendary
2026-05-18 03:21:55
sounds like you suck at trading
2026-05-18 03:37:53
i'm giving my winnings to the church
2026-05-18 04:32:41
-$2442
2026-05-18 04:34:09
i see you sold enough to break even. you could have sold the entire stake. why didn't you?
2026-05-18 14:44:20
its more of a flex than donating $2000
2026-05-18 14:53:32
what do you think fishback is at?
2026-05-18 18:34:51
Six Seven
2026-05-19 10:14:29
Ban AI
2026-05-19 10:18:29
If you did interpret the rules as meaning "broadcast (live or taped) or streamed live," can you explain what this rule is meant to exclude?
2026-05-19 16:17:15
67
2026-05-19 23:10:40
GG :)
2026-05-20 16:46:53
gg
2026-05-22 01:03:11
if you see a lot of whales buying shares at 99.9c after a clarification, this is because they are dumb who risks $100,000 to get $1,000, they will not be whales for much longer
2026-05-22 07:14:38
6 7
2026-05-22 19:37:39
six seven
2026-05-22 20:48:45
six seven
2026-05-24 23:43:08
its for your own good.
2026-06-01 02:30:35
"Highly litigious woman (serial plaintiff)" is not an insult, it's an impartial assertion. May 31 should resolve to N.
2026-06-01 02:50:29
Not at all true. Litigiousness can be objectively determined by reviewing the amount of litigation the individual has been involved in, just as if Trump called someone "tall," we could look up their height.
2026-06-01 04:54:19
an objective statement
2026-06-05 14:17:31
Eliminate AI
2026-06-17 12:25:20
comment of the year
2026-06-17 21:30:46
when did bonders get so greedy, damn
2026-06-22 22:20:35
Valdez Bros, how cooked are we 🥺
2026-06-24 06:41:38
hehe 🪿
2026-06-27 22:06:52
they already do
2026-06-28 20:49:48
six seven
2026-06-30 15:09:23
NINA
2026-07-19 22:17:53
Y holders, how cooked are we? 😔
2026-07-19 22:24:37
when was the first time
2026-07-19 22:27:57
i was right on principle
2026-07-19 22:32:28
oh, so you've simply committed fraud then
2026-07-19 22:47:12
GG everyone, enjoy the dispute 🪿
2026-07-19 22:58:59
nice trade bas, here's your trophy 🏆
2026-07-28 16:00:04
+1
2026-08-04 17:10:33
why is Democrat going down :(
2026-08-05 00:15:56
whoops
2026-08-09 06:53:35
it's miller time
2026-08-11 16:25:01
ping me when the state certified results are out and i'll resolve them
2026-08-14 03:18:37
its fun to pretend
2026-08-19 17:32:22
six seven
2026-08-19 19:07:12
yes
2026-08-19 19:18:16
gg🪿
2026-08-20 14:09:44
source?
2026-08-26 00:19:09
GG, the Norman Conquest was repelled
2026-09-03 03:46:12
None
2026-09-05 08:58:17
what
2026-09-07 15:22:23
what do they know... :/
2026-09-17 10:59:11
Tax billionaires out of existence
2026-09-20 18:56:30
berlin ist rot
2026-09-23 12:49:29
None
2026-09-25 12:19:49
a winner?
2026-10-05 00:13:20
Se você está na fila, permaneça na fila.
2026-10-05 00:13:47
None
2026-10-09 00:31:18
Can Julia even go Y if her name is misspelled?