Account Information
Name:
sharingan-kakashi
Bio:
only loosers read teh rules
Pseudonym:
Fatherly-Victim
Created:
2024-02-07 00:53:40
Last Activity:
1 month ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-500983-107fc716-1757-4b54-86f5-af30be2d24c5.webp
Total Profit
$2,719
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$2,583.93
Markets traded
748
Trades
748
Largest win
$1,101.38
Profile views
3,037
Join date
2024-02-07 00:53:40
All-time rank
41989
All-time PnL
$2,718.64
All-time volume
$108,397.11
All-time profit
$2,718.64
Lifetime volume
$108,397.11
PnL series latest
$2,714.67
PnL series start
$2,712.95
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$13.52
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Yes | 1991.5874 | $1,101.48 |
| Will Vermont be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Yes | 88.735 | $109.32 |
| Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? | Yes | 75 | $87.86 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | No | 275.46 | $-244.58 |
| Will John Bartlett be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election? | Yes | 0 | $-134.50 |
| Will Anna Lee Williams be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election? | Yes | 0 | $-134.49 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3000.0191 | $0.05 | $0.16 | $469.50 | $331.50 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 251.14 | $0.95 | $0.98 | $246.75 | $8.85 |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | No | 189.2055 | $0.89 | $0.94 | $178.80 | $10.75 |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | No | 189.9624 | $0.84 | $0.93 | $176.47 | $17.58 |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 150 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $148.95 | $0.15 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Yes | 1991.5874 | $1,101.48 |
| Will Vermont be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | Yes | 88.735 | $109.32 |
| Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? | Yes | 75 | $87.86 |
| Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election? | Yes | 0 | $84.60 |
| Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? | Yes | 0 | $53.02 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | $0.98 | 1.14 | $1.12 |
| 1 month ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 0.0823 | $0.08 | |||
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $0.99 | 50 | $49.55 |
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | $0.98 | 47.6 | $46.79 |
| 1 month ago | TRADE | BUY | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $0.99 | 49.82 | $49.42 |
Recent trades (748)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | $0.98 | 1.81 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | No | $0.35 | 10 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | No | $0.94 | 25 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | No | $0.94 | 25 |
| 1 month ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | $0.98 | 25 |
Comments
2024-02-26 04:15:34
This will absolutely happen this year given the election. Just a question of whether Biden waits until the summer or fall for maximum effect.
2024-03-02 01:08:38
Bad typo in the rules lol.
2024-03-10 18:03:34
I have nothing to contribute to this discussion other than: when resolutions are ambiguous like this it’s a bigger risk for PM to resolve against the majority. The price indicts pretty obviously where majority of the money comes down on which side won.
2024-03-10 23:27:17
I don't think anyone is disputing congress passed the bill before the deadline. The rules, prior to correction clearly say "If the US federal government goes unfunded for any period of time before a new budget/stopgap can be signed into law, it will be considered a government shutdown."
2024-03-10 23:29:59
What might be tripping people up is the distinction between the government having no budget for a few hours on Saturday, which happened, and per the rules was how shutdown is defined here - and any practical noticable shutdown activities that came into effect, which is what the media calls a shutdown. Like the agriculture department didn't have people working at 2:00 AM on Saturday who had to stop.
2024-03-10 23:40:04
They set it to noon in the rules because midnight was the deadline, giving 12 hours for a shutdown to occur. If they set the deadline as the same as the government's there would be no overlap.
2024-03-11 20:40:38
When the rules, prior to the "fine print added later on" clearly explain what the market will consider a government shutdown, it's no one's fault but your own if you insist another definition be used. The definition of a lapse in funding past the Friday midnight deadline, which is when the previous CR expired by law, was unambiguously the cutoff point the whole time.
2024-03-11 20:49:28
Replying here because I can't reply directly to Nikitis - are you suggesting there's a government source which disputes the previous CR expired at midnight on Friday? Because again, that's what the definition of a shutdown is, according to the market rules. This isn't complicated - and folks pointing at media reports ignore the fact that the reporting acknowledges that there was a Friday deadline. Because those same reports define shutdown differently does not matter. PM is only referencing official reports as to when the previous CR expires.
2024-03-19 17:53:07
Give us NC Governor election market plz.
2024-03-29 00:51:04
Nothing better than a "will the sun come up tomorrow morning" market. People paid real money for Trump to win CA & VT on Predict It in 2020.
2024-04-19 23:21:58
Seriously what the actual fucking fuck is wrong with anyone offering a 4% return on RFK Jr not being the Dem nominee. No is more secure than a Treasury bond and currently paying a higher annualized yield.
2024-05-06 13:48:02
Id bet a lot more here if not for the 48 hours rule. Think its 50/50 he spend the afternoon in a symbolic holding cell thing.
2024-05-19 19:10:50
"Statements from Fuentes confirming his sexuality or gender identity that are joking, sarcastic, or made in a non-serious context will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution." LOL who would risk betting in this market.
2024-05-24 01:06:08
Would be smart for PM to clarify in these markets if "Taiwan" is the island or the ROC. Very possible China starts with outlying islands within the ROC (informally called "Taiwan") to gauge global reaction, not the island of Taiwan.
2024-05-29 17:47:30
I see the resident schizo is acting like he was on the right side the whole time.
2024-05-30 16:18:21
Really just seems like one weirdo with multiple alts (all with negative lifetime performance) calling others with positive lifetime earnings on this site dum, retard, etc...
2024-05-30 20:41:31
They have a verdict. LOL. Either guilty or not guilty.
2024-05-30 20:57:09
Yeah I'm sure a jury of at least 9 confirmed libs voted not guilty so quickly lmao. The others on the jury aren't even confirmed cons either, just not clear.
2024-05-30 21:04:35
Only need one of the counts to come back guilty for this to resolve yes.
2024-05-30 21:09:18
That's some good MAGA money.
2024-06-01 14:17:34
Only correct bet here is No since the sheer partisan joy you'll feel if it does come out is worth every lost penny.
2024-06-01 14:45:11
Virginia, Colorado & New Mexico are not a "solid" blue state. Trump won't win them, but they are not close to the same as Cali, MA, NY, etc...
2024-06-01 14:49:56
Who is paying 5 cents for this? If Trump refuses to debate because Biden won't take a drug test, Biden's team will say "thank you very much" and take the W.
2024-06-07 19:36:05
See rules. White House itself.
2024-06-23 19:42:44
“The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Barron Trump confirming his involvement or *definitive* evidence that Barron was involved.” Looking forward to folks disputing what is an objectively correct resolution for this market later on.
2024-06-25 15:11:53
If I understand correctly there isn’t even a primary here today because the incumbent is running unopposed since Santos dropped out months ago. Yet folks are still buying Yes here. This site is so weird man
2024-06-27 23:28:27
rip
2024-07-16 23:03:04
Lol. Crazy Barack Obama and Joe Biden are options.
2024-07-21 21:24:53
Lol
2024-08-04 19:03:33
This resolves tomorrow lol who thinks there’s a 1% chance it isn’t Harris?
2024-08-06 15:32:36
"Sure, the delegates voted to nominate her, but have you considered I was betting on an insane far right conspiracy that I really wanted to be true?"
2024-08-06 21:45:02
Lol wow I’m glad I didn’t touch the main two contracts here. What a shitshow
2024-08-06 21:48:18
USA #1 as always. Why do other nations even try?
2024-08-06 21:51:33
The delegates voted and she is the nominee what is missing here? Do you think the virtual roll call wasn’t an official vote? They did it to ensure ballot access so what else is there to this?
2024-08-06 22:00:30
Can we get ones for Michelle Obama and Hillary pls?
2024-08-07 02:05:25
rip bozo
2024-08-11 12:25:11
I’ll be honest this is kind of pathetic for China. A country with 4x America’s population might end up tying US in Golds, and getting blown out in total medal count. Don’t they also have giant government initiatives to field and train athletes?
2024-08-11 12:36:01
Right? Like those are all I watch except for basketball too.
2024-08-11 14:19:06
Would love for her to lose but it was only close last time because they snuck up on her. She's ready this time, has taken it seriously, and Don is not as well funded or organized relative to her efforts this time around.
2024-08-11 14:45:57
Except your economy, and international standing, and freedom to leave the house for like 3 years there lol
2024-08-11 15:22:37
commies in SHAMBLES
2024-08-11 15:24:30
you'll die on the beaches bish
2024-08-11 16:13:03
We’ve reached peak cope now lol.
2024-08-14 02:11:35
That's GG. She'll do better in Hennepin
2024-08-14 02:42:27
Honestly he did pretty good even relative to expectations, since she was ready for him this time. He can be proud of that. Not breaking 60% in your home super progressive district is pretty bad.
2024-08-14 02:44:13
Being online never works huh?
2024-08-14 02:47:02
Doh!
2024-08-15 01:58:20
Is it even possible for there to be another roll call vote now? Like if Harris stepped aside wouldn't the head of the DNC pick a replacement now that they've officially voted her as the nominee? Regardless, no harm keeping it open for a few more days.
2024-08-16 18:39:26
gauging don't count right? lol
2024-08-16 19:00:48
Q from someone who is still a bit of a noob: how do you make a bid in decimals (like 99.9) when the price split is 1/99 - PM won't let me enter 99.9 as a bid right now for No on Ukraine for example, 99 is as high as I can go - all whole numbers.
2024-08-17 23:03:32
Flawless logic
2024-08-18 13:36:24
14.5 hours....
2024-08-19 23:58:04
biG mIkE
2024-08-20 00:25:09
Why would they put up the scandal prone son of someone who isn't even running for office anymore?
2024-08-21 01:01:09
Guys I don't think they're going to re-instate him.
2024-08-21 01:47:58
Insane pricing lol
2024-08-23 17:43:10
He obviously won’t but I really hope I’m wrong because it would be genuinely hilarious and harmful to his prospects.
2024-08-23 19:03:39
Lmao
2024-08-23 19:06:26
Hahahahaha
2024-08-23 20:54:56
He withdrew, but only from some states. Lol.
2024-08-23 21:18:48
At this point would be insane for them to change course after clear clarification. Would shred their credibility.
2024-08-23 21:24:14
The best case I can make is that Kennedy withdrew from the *race* which is what the rules state. He has stopped campaigning. His name remaining on the ballot and being open to people voting for him in safe states doesn’t change that. But understand why No bros are mad. Right to be.
2024-08-23 21:31:47
FTR, there are a lot of poorly written rules on this site but I’m not sure that was the main issue here. It’s that the subject of the market has literal brain worms
2024-09-11 15:12:13
lol. The rest of Virginia would have to move so far right to make up for the tsunami that will be northern Virginia this cycle. Federal workers are going to show up at their outer turnout limit to prevent Project 2025.
2024-09-18 00:44:54
Yes sir Mr government regulators sir prediction markets are for valid researching and hedging real events.
2024-09-18 11:37:28
If you can’t commit fraud in VA does that mean Biden in fact won it by over 10 points in 2020?
2024-09-18 18:21:28
Harris W tbh
2024-09-19 19:22:42
He has until midnight tonight to legally drop out. He can “drop out” after but it’s only meaningful by tonight. This is good insurance though when parlayed with the NC Gov election market since if he does stay in it’s a mortal lock Dem win.
2024-09-19 19:50:06
CNN released a story, per the rules that’s all that matters here.
2024-09-19 19:58:57
So if Mark does stay in this race is very over. Would be an uphill battle if his name is on the ballot with a replacement candidate anyway.
2024-09-19 23:26:50
He could in theory drop out after tonight. The GOP just won’t be able to replace him. They debatably already can’t on the ballot at least.
2024-09-25 13:46:58
Crossed a billion bet!
2024-09-25 13:48:45
What state do the RFKtards think he will finish second in, especially post-drop out?
2024-09-27 12:22:24
Who tried to propose Yes lmao?
2024-10-01 18:59:42
Curious if the "state of war" Israel entered after Oct 7 would have resolved to Yes here. If not, I don't seem declaring war here if they didn't even officially do so after Hamas attacked them.
2024-10-02 00:59:48
They just shaked hands before it kicked off lol
2024-10-02 01:23:38
Vance won't answer the child/parent q lol
2024-10-02 01:29:17
Vance just nuked this lol
2024-10-02 02:10:07
I wouldn't touch this one lmao. It will be a single digit winner in the poll either way, good luck!
2024-10-03 00:45:06
lol Cao got smoked in his debate with Kaine.
2024-10-03 00:56:49
"This election isn't close" they kept saying about an election that is in fact, very close.
2024-10-03 01:09:46
who you going to complain to?
2024-10-04 23:42:04
Is this market movement really all the Axios Slotkin article or did something happen like Tim Pool sent his people to this market?
2024-10-05 00:08:26
Share conversion. You can convert your No shares to Yes shares on everything else to free up capital.
2024-10-05 00:29:47
No it wouldn't lol. Ron was +12% in the averages that's just a 3 pt polling error lol
2024-10-07 17:18:46
Woah Mr Trump is going to win big now that the markets are moving his way. If we get Harris under 40 cents he wins for sure!
2024-10-07 18:26:53
Poly Market needs to add margin markets for every swing and lean state.
2024-10-09 00:22:21
EC voting date
2024-10-09 22:14:26
Pony up then tough guy.
2024-10-10 20:05:05
Who let the hogs out?
2024-10-10 20:07:01
It's Elon giving you a positive EV bet so he can tweet about prediction market odds, just set your orders and take his money
2024-10-17 14:16:27
The hogs are out of control.
2024-10-17 14:19:50
Not saying anything that isn’t obvious, but this guy isn’t trying to win money here. He would be much more patient with order fills if so, instead of bursts of activity. Price movement is the goal.
2024-10-17 21:41:46
I wish I could express in words how bad a bet almost 20 cents on R is here.
2024-10-22 01:25:29
If you get Trump to 70 Kamala has to concede before the election - it's the law!
2024-10-24 21:13:33
Even though the rules clearly state that this will resolve after the three outlets listed call this race I know for sure that the hogs will dispute some of these state markets on election night/morning. “But we need to investigate the steal.”
2024-10-30 00:33:13
Guys, she has to concede if you get Trump to 75 cents.
2024-11-02 23:32:37
hahaha
2024-11-02 23:38:39
Brain worms only explanation for why this isn't 99 cents
2024-11-03 01:12:41
muh atlas intel
2024-11-05 23:08:46
He might be cooked here. We'll see, could be close still...
2024-11-06 02:40:00
What I said a couple weeks ago. Such a bad bet on Trump here. Trump is having a great night and you got greedy and lost money on this.
2024-11-07 01:47:59
Might get a call after next Maricopa drop.
2024-11-07 02:07:36
How? Who? Why?
2024-11-07 02:19:05
We would be so lucky to get Mike G.
2024-11-08 01:37:21
Ok this is just a creepy market lmao
2024-11-09 14:35:14
I'd be shocked if RFK Jr gets through Senate confirmation. At least 3 Rs - Collins, Murkowski & McConnell will have the balls to stand up to Trump no matter what, that means he needs all 50 + the tie breaker to vote to confirm Kennedy. Doesn't mean Trump won't nominate him and let him fail as a show of good will to his base - that's the Q here, will Trump knowingly nominate him and let him fail to get rid of him?
2026-01-03 14:56:03
Only betting a dollar for the fun of it, but the key word here is going to be "intended" - the intent of this operation was very clearly not to establish control over Venezuelan territory. It was to capture Maduro. Should resolve No unless a new operation like that changes things.
2026-01-03 15:05:34
well then he can launch a new operation to do that because US forces involved in this one have already started going home.
2026-01-03 16:52:16
why not you?
2026-01-03 19:20:11
seems unlikely given they charged her too. we shall see.
2026-01-03 20:17:24
You’d think if PM felt an invasion was what was intended by the op earlier today they’d have clarified that in the clarification. But folks, go ahead and propose if you think UMA rules differently. Stop complaining and begging others to risk $750+ for you.
2026-01-08 18:28:38
It is, but which side?
2026-01-12 02:47:23
This has potential to be an all-times rules fight. For example, "core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have..." are the plurals important? Need at least 2 of those to go?
2026-01-31 14:57:44
You morons are betting against something that has ALREADY HAPPENED and still complaining. You're looking for a get rich quick scheme and this isn't it, stop burning your money.
2026-01-31 14:59:44
People will really bet against something that has already happened and then complain it's a "scam" when they lose.
2026-01-31 15:07:22
Yes it has. A shutdown is when no spending has been appropriated by law and the government cannot continue all non-necessary operations (which are exempt from shutdown). That has happened. Previous law extended until Jan 30. It is Jan 31 and Congress has not passed an extension. The resolution criteria has been met - a notice has been posted on the OPM website. It's over.
2026-01-31 15:19:00
It is and the rules even bother to say a partial shutdown counts. I can't believe I'm explaining this.
2026-02-02 20:49:42
No bettors are so dense they don't understand that the US Congress has two chambers and only the upper chamber passed funding Friday. The lower one still has not even passed it and won't until tomorrow or later.
2026-02-17 23:10:33
Father, Son and the Holy Pump
2026-02-17 23:25:05
This is the funniest shit.
2026-02-21 16:53:07
Because Polymarket has a bad market creation and resolution team who aren't subject matter experts.
2026-02-22 15:16:45
She can renounce her citizenship but that wouldn't count for resolution here right? I've never heard of a natural born US citizen having their citizenship "revoked."
2026-02-22 19:46:54
Doubt she will regardless, but "rescind" is to revoke something, according to the dictionaries I'm looking at. To take something away. I would not call renouncing something "revoking" since you are giving something up as opposed to having it taken from you. And again, there is no precedent for that ever happening to a natural born citizen. You can denaturalize someone but not this. Literal reading of the rules would make this a 100% lock for NO unless courts are ignored or new laws are passed that allow for it in a way that isn't unconstitutional.
2026-02-26 02:01:20
You can bet No on everything and convert your shares to get "Other." But I think they can just add a new contract if you contact them on support. Under your user menu...
2026-02-28 18:05:56
Rest in piss
2026-02-28 18:12:00
Folks betting they will Weekend at Bernie's him?
2026-02-28 21:47:05
It's very normal alive person behavior to send out a mournful tweet with a picture of you as a ghostly martyr.
2026-02-28 22:07:14
Whenever I'm alive on a Saturday I tweet out pictures of me as a ghost. Classic Saturday being alive.
2026-03-01 01:42:28
Keep buying patriots. We are only $10 million more lost on No away from getting the right resolution.
2026-03-01 20:44:41
The online hype around this guy is strange. He has about as much of a claim to running Iran as the American descendants of the Romanovs do to running Russia.
2026-03-01 20:47:21
If Saudi Arabia goes offensive, it would be the first time Israel and Saudi Arabia are officially co-belligerents in a war, no? Would be a crazy big step and moment.
2026-03-01 21:18:11
He has the support of many in the Iranian diaspora and those in western countries. He does not have any measurable support among Iranian rank and files government officials, military or IRCG. He would be killed minutes after entering Iran unless the US military gave him a permanent giant security detail with boots on the ground.
2026-03-04 16:28:32
You MUST dispute, Sheltonians. It was simply a head-fake by the white house today!
2026-03-05 18:56:26
Reading is hard!
2026-03-06 19:56:02
the war fighters are NOT at war.
2026-03-26 17:15:18
The retardation required to hold yes here is at levels never before observed.
2026-04-03 16:06:42
By the way it's written, a rescue operation to recover a pilot WOULD qualify for Yes. But by the spirit of the rules, a shot down pilot's brief rescue operation shouldn't count. If only Polymarket had a consistent history of going with letter or rules vs spirit of rules instead of schizophrenically going back and forth between them. Good luck folks!
2026-04-03 16:15:34
The pilots don't qualify, but do the troops who deliberately enter to rescue them do?
2026-04-03 16:18:17
can you read?
2026-05-23 00:34:11
The star-nosed mole can identify and eat prey in about 120 milliseconds, making it one of the fastest-foraging mammals known
2026-05-23 16:48:20
Even assuming they all are allowed through and/or willing to risk it and/or get tracked correctly with transponders and such, 250/7 = 36, not 60. Need much more traffic to hit by May 31.
2026-05-23 19:47:37
You have to clean your cash. Use cold water and set your machine to "delicate."
2026-05-23 21:01:43
Gonna be fun to litigate whether a "framework" for a deal counts as a deal.
2026-06-28 15:06:50
mfers out here paying as much for Jared Polis, Phil Murphy, Bernie Sanders, Kim K & Andrew Yang as the Doctor Reverend Warnock.
2026-08-17 18:03:39
I don't think they're building too many new data centers in this coastal, upscale district. Beachfront data centers seem like a crappy business model.