Account Information
Name:
Eia
Pseudonym:
Heartfelt-Image
Created:
2025-10-24 06:16:53
Last Activity:
1 week ago
Tier:
Tier 0
profile-image-3723689-f8bcc422-8a3f-4a96-a910-4c6a44c0253f.jpg
Total Profit
$21,386
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$28,789.81
Markets traded
1,117
Trades
1,116
Largest win
$1,698.25
Profile views
874
Join date
2025-10-24 06:16:53
All-time rank
7387
All-time PnL
$21,386.35
All-time volume
$1,728,461.32
All-time profit
$21,386.35
Lifetime volume
$1,728,461.32
PnL series latest
$23,270.55
PnL series start
$23,105.44
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$173.14
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 7942.2099 | $1,798.36 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 3283.4982 | $1,774.69 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 11836.3206 | $1,164.55 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 2300.02 | $-1,379.58 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 4179.29 | $-985.08 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | No | 16519.2954 | $-973.60 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 6999.9552 | $0.78 | $0.85 | $5,984.96 | $494.59 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 4600.47 | $0.80 | $0.88 | $4,025.41 | $367.11 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 1399.8817 | $0.65 | $0.72 | $1,014.91 | $108.82 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 1000.0709 | $0.95 | $0.97 | $968.57 | $21.61 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | 999.9807 | $0.90 | $0.91 | $909.98 | $6.00 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 7942.2099 | $1,798.36 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 3283.4982 | $1,774.69 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 11836.3206 | $1,164.55 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | No | 3048.5235 | $1,024.88 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 1100 | $851.00 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | $0.86 | 360.58 | $310.10 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | $0.81 | 29.61 | $23.98 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | $0.81 | 62.49 | $50.62 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | $0.81 | 7.894737 | $6.39 |
| 1 week ago | TRADE | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | $0.24 | 600 | $144.00 |
Recent trades (1116)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026? | No | $0.72 | 29.99 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | $0.68 | 10 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | $0.68 | 20 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026? | No | $0.85 | 50 |
| 1 week ago | BUY | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? | No | $0.35 | 10 |
Comments
2025-11-28 21:39:14
We now calculate almost no chance that 2025 will be the warmest year on record. There is a small chance (6%) that warming over the next 2 months is sufficient to lift 2025 to be the second warmest year on record, but it is much more likely that 2025 will become the 3rd warmest year (behind 2023 and 2024).
2025-11-28 21:39:33
[link removed]
2025-12-12 17:10:36
@cornwall why talk sense but no bets?
2025-12-12 17:40:39
[link removed]
2025-12-12 18:34:31
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2025: The Kremlin claimed that Russian forces seized Siversk as part of the Kremlin’s intensified cognitive warfare effort that seeks to portray Ukraine’s front line as on the verge of collapse, and Russian battlefield victory as inevitable. Neither is true, and the Russian seizure of Siversk is unconfirmed as of December 11.
2025-12-12 19:02:02
Its from ISW, the entity that defines the map in the resolution of this market. [link removed]
2025-12-13 17:29:46
How come? 🫠
2025-12-16 12:15:11
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
2025-12-30 11:54:55
Car, whats up?
2026-01-03 12:13:04
Nah, not the same. No us x Venezuela conflict between MILITARY before 31dec
2026-01-03 14:42:52
And which kinetic strike occured last year?
2026-01-03 15:19:40
Nah, look at the clarification from Polymarket on that market. No credible reporting it was a drone strike
2026-01-03 16:58:47
Yes, evidence of an operation, not a strike. Read the resolutions..
2026-01-04 20:08:02
@ Mrneverpullsout , why you pulling out?
2026-01-04 22:09:29
Where did you pick up the latest dec nr? I see gopfan on no side as well. Large pnl fish, was on yes before.
2026-01-04 22:17:54
Isnt the resolution contradictory? Will an announcement solely by the US qualify?
2026-01-05 08:46:40
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
2026-01-05 08:47:11
But your point is that the latter part is more specific and will be the resolution criteria?
2026-01-05 10:16:31
Denmark will never agree to this. So we need a market that resolves to a US announcement / annexing / invasion
2026-01-05 11:14:23
Ping me on X?
2026-01-06 22:50:44
Trump discussing how to acquire Greenland; US military always an option, White House says - [link removed]
2026-01-07 11:36:21
You finally got to zero. What was your rationale?
2026-01-07 16:36:43
Now that Gennedy and Mr neverpullsout is done dumping their position the price will go to high 90ies again. Time of good prices over
2026-01-07 21:36:34
Thanks. Though still 99.5% likelyhood that this will happen before march 31?
2026-01-11 08:51:30
Dont ruin his game. Porx always buys yes, comes with an undocumented claim, and then sells out. So trade against it instead.
2026-01-11 13:41:06
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
2026-01-13 21:36:54
We all work at GISS
2026-01-14 20:17:55
This market is so mispriced. I'm Danish. The rules do not require this to be about territory etc. and the current Trump-show. ANY deal between US and Denmark relating to Greenland, even extensions, will qualify. The US and Denmark have extensive agreements on topics ranging from military bases, arctic research, climate and geology, space-weather monitoring, fishery, use of ports and infrastructure etc. DYOR and you find recent agreements. For this to be below 80 on yes one would think the relationship between the countries would completely freeze, which the meeting today did not indicate..
2026-01-15 07:26:49
Sure, thats obvious. Renewals will. Any odd fishery deal will, arctic research, polar lights whatever.
2026-01-15 14:25:11
Damn, my limit order that was raking rewards got sold. I need to get a trading bot.. Anyway, ill be back on yes side soon.
2026-01-20 21:27:19
Can't. Send me one
2026-01-22 14:09:18
I love how the unpredictability and frequent false claims from Trump impacts the world, even prediction markets "Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify."
2026-01-22 14:21:47
"But soon after Trumps comment, Putin told the Russian Security council that the foreign ministry was still studying the proposal and would respond in due course. Putin will use it as a bargaining chip in the Ukraine negotiations, which won't resolve before March.
2026-01-22 14:21:50
[link removed]
2026-01-24 19:27:03
Guess you are right, but would've been better if you sold 😅
2026-01-30 10:21:26
FBI Director Patel confirms that the FBI participated alongside their Mexican partners. "This was a zero-margin, high-risk operation. Our FBI HRT teams executed with precision, discipline, and total professionalism alongside our Mexican partners to bring Ryan James Wedding back to face justice." [link removed]
2026-01-30 13:43:40
Reuters confirms as well: [link removed]
2026-01-30 18:15:35
Who cares? "The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used." And she even backtracked yesterday
2026-01-30 22:28:28
Oh, you mean the druglord kingpin that worked with Sinola is not cartel related? Interesting take
2026-01-30 22:39:42
Nothing in the resolution requires images. Public statements from US, and credible reporting like this.
2026-01-30 22:41:05
[link removed]
2026-01-30 22:43:13
[link removed]
2026-01-31 14:11:44
Eventually, said his lawyer, Anthony Colombo, FBI agents handcuffed Wedding, who was then transported to California . [link removed]
2026-01-31 14:14:00
“If the U.S. government is unilaterally going into a sovereign country and apprehending somebody, you can understand the concern that sovereign entity might have,” Colombo told reporters outside the courthouse on Tuesday.
2026-02-01 01:28:50
Take your 7 No and ai gulp elsewhere. This market resolves on what the Americans say. That the mexicans dont want to publicly admit it is irrelevant. Patel, Bondi and Wallstreetjournal all confirms, no rumours.
2026-02-01 01:30:46
Which is why the mexican government have a hard time publicly admitting to this scandal. I dont think Venezuelan laws helped Maduro much
2026-02-01 01:32:42
Keep quoting the Mexicans. Please propose No with this
2026-02-01 01:34:37
Patel states it at the formal US press conference ".. worked hand in glove with our teams on the ground there to apprehend last night in mexico city"[link removed]
2026-02-01 01:39:35
Ok, should be nothing stoping you from proposing No then? Or what is holding you back?
2026-02-02 19:07:26
The director of FBI, Kash Patel, clearly said: "with our team on the ground there to apprehend, last night, in Mexico City, Ryan Wedding" Youtube link of the exact time he said it: [link removed] This video of the FBI director at the official press conference is what flipped the market when used for disputing morning of February 1st. Crying scam or buying more no shares does not help you, there is no conspiracy.
2026-02-03 11:46:21
Shhhh, dont stop the flow. Yes need to win! Buy more yes to win the war against the whales
2026-02-04 08:28:06
The Wedding event happened before the march market was created. It wont resolve on this
2026-02-04 08:52:27
Kash Patel, director of fbi, at the official press conference after the arrest, clearly said: "with our team on the ground there to apprehend, last night, in Mexico City, Ryan Wedding" below is the Youtube link of the exact time he said it: [link removed]
2026-02-04 14:36:01
By your interpretation, any operation since the dawn of time would qualify then?
2026-02-04 15:18:28
You guys are helpless.. "On the ground = On the ground", "Apprehend" = Arrest. But please keep on playing, i'm happy to take more of your money
2026-02-05 17:38:10
With that level of conviction one would think you should own some yes shares before calling out the other side? Please fill some more of my no position. But you are ignoring the fact that the treaty has been dead since the Rus/Ukr war and that the US has no benefit of signing it. No less, since the orange buffoon took office the world order has drastically changed, to the point where "last 50 years" is irrelevant.
2026-02-05 17:50:52
I see, nice profit there. Whats your Yes target price for re-entry? Looking forward to the future fill
2026-02-08 21:13:58
We go for quality over quantity
2026-02-09 13:17:25
Dude, thats not accurate, don't misinform. Use the official website as quoted in the resolution:
2026-02-09 13:17:32
[link removed]
2026-02-12 18:55:12
Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?
2026-02-12 18:57:55
Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..
2026-02-17 12:15:01
How come?
2026-02-21 17:41:25
Better read the rules next time
2026-02-21 18:10:44
I did exactly the same on the Huli market, so thats how you learn. They could improve the titles of the markets, but unless it says "all of" you really need to check. Gg
2026-03-09 13:44:09
You mean FBI boss Patels words on the official press conference after apprehending Wedding, stating "with our team on the ground there to apprehend, last night, in Mexico city, Ryan wedding", was ambiguous for you?
This won't resolve to yes on the ICE twitter post. It does not confirm at which capacity the US participated.
You yes guys need to find something more if you hope to convert this to your win.
2026-03-09 15:31:49
Great. I'm looking forward to you proposing the market, its free money! You find the "propose resolution" button in the "Resolution" section. You don't need to wait for anything since you already have the evidence.
2026-03-09 21:32:40
Then you should just propose Yes, if you have all the evidence you need? You find the "propose resolution" button in the "Resolution" section.
2026-03-12 19:51:20
Tick-tock. About 24 risky hours from first painting red before it is confirmed and update of frontpage with new date. Capturing of Hryshyne today is controversial, information is not confirmed even by most Russian sources. Looks like ISW mostly rely on the blogger Anatoly Radov (who wrote that he is relying on rumors). May be that we see a re-painting ala Myhrnohrad. Tick-tock
2026-03-12 20:04:50
Yes, but its ambiguous to which capacity the US personnel contributed on the ground, so it won't resolve to yes on the ICE twitter post alone. Hence, the low price.
However, most yes holders (I assume) are hoping new evidence will appear like happened last time, when a video surfaced of FBI boss Patels from the official press conference after apprehending Wedding, stated "with our team on the ground there to apprehend, last night, in Mexico city, Ryan wedding". You would need something like that, or photo / video of the arrest showing US personnel directly participating in the arrest.
2026-03-12 20:09:17
Tick-tock. About 24 risky hours from first painting red before it is confirmed and update of frontpage with new date. Capturing of Hryshyne today is controversial, information is not confirmed even by most Russian sources. Looks like ISW mostly rely on the blogger Anatoly Radov (who wrote that he is relying on rumors). May be that we see a re-painting ala Myhrnohrad. Tick-tock
2026-03-21 21:53:03
Nah, boots on the ground is another market. This is much stricter. Invasion did not resolve to yes in Venezuela. They need to stay for control
2026-03-22 07:13:08
Its about intention, not duration. Control an area temporarily to get uranium out would not count. Control Kharg as a bargaining chip would.
2026-03-22 19:25:28
So the precedence of waiting for the webpage date to update is now vois?
2026-04-02 19:05:54
Ask Putin for some more propaganda cash so you can keep donating and dont become worthless youself
2026-04-05 18:12:55
You guys need to read the rules before betting.. This is the market you should have been in: "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"
2026-04-08 17:17:43
I hope you do realize it is 9am local time the 11th?
2026-04-08 21:45:56
You do realize India and Pakistan are two different countries with different time zones? No wonder your pnl is neg..
2026-04-09 20:04:17
Last years announcement by Kremlin explicitly mentioned humanitarian reason. This year does not. Only need Ukraine to accept. "By the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief...V.V. Putin, in connection with the approaching Orthodox feast of Easter (the Resurrection of Christ), a ceasefire is declared from 16:00 (13:00 GMT) on 11 April until the end of the day on 12 April 2026," the Kremlin's statement said
2026-04-09 20:06:21
Last year ceasefire was explicitly humanitarian. This year its not. Arent you mr. Reading comprehension?
2026-04-09 20:13:43
Needs both sides. Waiting for zelensky to accept.
2026-04-09 20:30:27
[link removed]
2026-04-29 07:20:18
Worth listening to yesterdays press conference from the Chihuahua state on the topic: [link removed]
2026-04-29 14:13:51
I totally agree, lets buy more Yes 🥳 We can flip this!
2026-05-01 08:09:40
Photo is fake news [link removed]. Attorney General’s Office / State Prosecutor’s Office of Chihuahua named them all, they are all Mexican agents from the State Investigation Agency (AEI). Its a random Mlienio Media webpage that claimed that it was CIA agents. [link removed]
2026-05-01 08:10:21
So basically, there is no evidence for which capacity the US agents where there for. And their involvement in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
2026-05-04 17:34:07
[link removed]
2026-05-07 06:11:32
Check the map, Riasne, Sumy Oblast. Don't play in markets you dont understand
2026-05-16 19:59:28
🤫
2026-05-23 19:04:48
A deal to end the war, is a permanent peace deal, even if negotiations on certain non-war related topics continue in the aftermath
2026-05-23 19:05:42
Where in this market do you find the word "final"?
2026-05-23 20:02:03
Sources have told Reuters the proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.
2026-06-22 20:35:18
Look in the rules section, read the rules, open the link, search for the location. Better understand markets before buying, but thanks for donating and better luck next time.
2026-07-15 22:08:29
Dont disrespect people that donate money. We want them to come back
2026-07-28 14:55:34
No proof of active participation. Only mexican agencies performed the arrest before handing him over to the Americans. Look at the photos from the arrest posted by the mexicans
2026-07-29 17:40:10
You still dont have anything else than this? That wont resolve. But please try, the propose button can be found above
2026-08-05 08:58:39
You guys are slow. They have more leverage now than before the war. Lets make a sidebet on whether the new nuclear deal will be better for the us than last?
2026-08-10 06:18:46
Why would they announce to extend an MOU they are both totally ignoring?
2026-08-18 20:56:28
Man I'm looking forward to the day you are sent to the frontline as cannon fodder so we can get some peace from your bs
2026-08-26 12:37:43
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. Good luck
2026-08-27 14:35:03
The Times: "Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI."
2026-08-27 14:39:24
Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created.
2026-08-27 20:04:50
Yes, for this market it is. This is an announcement market for OpenAI. If they announce that they have an internal AGI, the market will resolve Yes. Doesnt actually have to be AGI, or be proven to be, they just need to say it. And they will, they need the buzz to stay relevant, so high probability they will.
2026-09-04 17:03:04
Luckily not a single soul cares
2026-09-04 21:08:03
That was fun
2026-09-30 11:50:29
You also need to fight against reality
2026-10-05 17:10:30
This AI glop is why you are not earning any money