wiki.Polymarket

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?	Yes	11715.6775	$3,458.57
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	12868.6134	$3,345.96
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	6423.0558	$2,389.29

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?	Yes	5775.161	$-2,671.99
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	1142.97	$-1,070.71
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	3999.994	$-1,014.31

Market	Outcome	Size	Avg	Now	Value	PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	13420.3684	$0.86	$0.94	$12,682.25	$1,197.53
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	3441.4108	$0.94	$0.97	$3,345.05	$95.36
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	3000.0009	$0.92	$0.96	$2,889.00	$142.34
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	No	2709.9386	$0.91	$0.94	$2,533.79	$73.71
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	2738.7209	$0.83	$0.82	$2,259.44	$-26.69

Market	Outcome	Size	PnL
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?	Yes	11715.6775	$3,458.57
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	12868.6134	$3,345.96
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	6423.0558	$2,389.29
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	3883.82	$2,202.93
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	Yes	3149.13	$1,851.13

When	Type	Side	Market	Outcome	Price	Size	USDC
1 week ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.71	246	$174.91
1 week ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.72	278	$199.88
1 week ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.67	66.28	$44.21
1 week ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.81	100	$81.20
1 week ago	TRADE	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.81	100	$81.50

When	Side	Market	Outcome	Price	Size
1 week ago	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.71	246
1 week ago	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.72	278
1 week ago	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.67	66.28
1 week ago	BUY	Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$0.85	406.39
1 week ago	BUY	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$0.98	1127.72

2026-01-07 09:24:33 Not so. Used to be the case, but they've moved to whitelist-only proposals (and the whitelist is closed).

2026-01-08 02:00:35 To ask the question is to answer it.

2026-01-08 08:24:31 Lol, no.

2026-01-08 21:08:01 Going to get interesting: "Security Alert - U. S. Embassy Kyiv, Ukraine (January 8, 2026) Location: Ukraine, all districts Event: The U.S. embassy in Kyiv has received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days. The embassy, as always, recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced."

2026-01-08 23:03:44 Must boom. Missiles/drones that are shot down and impact the ground don't count (technically, one could argue that if they're shot down and boom they still don't count, but reporting and gvt news will call it a strike f it explodes). Surface to air interceptors that go up and then fall to the earth having missed don't count, although again if there's a boom in the fog of war it'll likely be reported as a drone/missile strike.

2026-01-08 23:10:41 Incidentally, some were trying to argue a week or so ago that electronic warfare interference leading to the drone not striking its intended target, or not striking in the usual manner, counted as interception. This was shown to be incorrect as all the reporting noted that it exploded, and so it resolved YES.

2026-01-09 10:29:49 Rewards farming people! At $200-$400, much better than grabbing all the 99.9c and then having to wait until this resolves.

2026-01-09 19:46:56 "consensus of credible reporting"

2026-01-09 20:24:34 Frequently. Unknown, but they tend to happen every week or so, so around the 15th.

2026-01-10 19:13:23 Agreed. You have now discovered the infinite money loophole in the game. To the moon!

2026-01-10 21:23:50 Link's broken.

2026-01-10 21:52:43 Umm. Yes, it's a little funny.

2026-01-10 22:04:17 I just want to check that the best the YES side have is the Suspilne article that references the high rise building in the Solomianskyi District?

2026-01-11 08:37:43 Interesting. The top YES and the top NO in Jan 11 are bots (or at least accounts) run by the same person. He splits in fgh and sells to rty, so he's got mirrored positions (give or take).

2026-01-11 08:43:33 You need to read the next sentence.

2026-01-11 08:53:22 Re. NO - think that one through sport.

2026-01-11 09:10:35 Wow. If you bet just $35k you could get a million! You'd be silly not to, really.

2026-01-11 22:53:23 The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

2026-01-11 23:12:52 No posts by Klitschko, Z, or the City Military Admin. No reports in the major local media or in major internationals. The Suspilne article is 10 Jan 2025!

2026-01-11 23:14:16 I think T'gram might be a banned word here - been trying to post variants of the above for 5 minutes, and this only made it when I deleted the reference to 'gram. Odd. Anyway, GG.

2026-01-11 23:20:58 He's referring to the strike that resolved the previous iteration of the 11 Jan market (you can tell by the reference to the Oreshnik). This one was created after that.

2026-01-11 23:23:14 Check out the date on the article :) .

2026-01-11 23:26:17 "overnight into Friday, Ukrainian officials said" This means night of Thu 8th to Fri 9th - prior to market creation.

2026-01-11 23:42:01 "over the territory of Ukraine" not "over the municipality of Kyiv". Kyiv authorities would have noted if Kyiv was one of the places hit.

2026-01-11 23:42:58 January 10, ***2025***

2026-01-12 07:34:09 Yes, because the RBC article is also from 2025. [link removed] Also, random T'gram channels are no good - it needs to be reported by either a gvt institution, or the media, and there were no such reports on 10 Jan. Look at the Jan 12 strike - immediately reported by Military Admin T'gram channel, and reported in Kyiv Independent and Reuters/The Guardian.

2026-01-12 08:48:24 I'm not in this market, so am not sure either way, but pay close attention to these words: "after the time of this market's creation."

2026-01-12 10:40:21 You posted that source a while back: [link removed] As I said there, you need to read the next sentence for context - the strikes it was talking about where not Kyiv.

2026-01-12 10:50:42 Someone should definitely post on UMA Discord proposal-requests about this!

2026-01-12 11:27:49 "Venezuela has the highest Travel Advisory level - Level 4: Do Not Travel - due to severe risks to Americans, including wrongful detention, torture in detention, terrorism, kidnapping, arbitrary enforcement of local laws, crime, civil unrest, and poor health infrastructure."

2026-01-12 12:24:12 The last support I saw you post was this which clearly says the night of 8-9 Jan, prior to market creation. [link removed]

2026-01-12 12:33:27 Where does it say Kyiv in any of those?

2026-01-12 18:20:56 This is getting retarded. One article doesn't contain the word Kyiv, and the other says "Kyiv says ... that the remaining 27 did strike their targets", but Kyiv here refers to the gvt of the country, not the city. This is a common way to write: "London says", "Washington says", etc. If 27 drones had struck Kyiv, I think we'd have heard from the city admin and major media.

2026-01-12 18:30:20 Ah, I see the problem. This is a "Russia strike on Kyiv municipality" market, not a "Russia strike on Ukraine" market. Easy mistake to make!

2026-01-12 18:38:06 Yep, they had two from good, local sources. But they were from Jan 2025. Sadly though, they're hanging onto hope, which means this market is going to drag on until after the verification window has passed.

2026-01-12 18:42:05 Do you understand how silly this sounds? Yes, that is the NO argument: the city authorities that report every strike (and even debris) did not report a strike, and no media did either, because there was no qualifying strike. But, even if hypothetically Russia had dropped a nuke on Kyiv, if major media and the admin didn't report it the market would still resolve NO.

2026-01-13 02:19:29 He can't propose because he's not on the whitelist (very few are). But he could have disputed.

2026-01-13 20:50:05 Sorry dude, that sucks. I'm submitting a feature request related to this, and I'd genuinely like to know when you thought would count as the start. If possible, please be honest - I know if you say "I wasn't thinking, I assumed 4 years ago when the war started" that you'll be opening yourself up to having the piss taken, but it would be interesting.

2026-01-13 21:47:09 Africa Command confirmed. [link removed]

2026-01-13 23:22:50 $1500, as Somalia would be proposed again immediately.

2026-01-14 02:55:55 :crickets:

2026-01-14 06:37:18 What's this being proposed YES based on?

2026-01-14 07:00:29 You'd be surprised.

2026-01-14 07:57:07 Thanks Bames. That attack predates, and might not even be in Kyiv city, I think.

2026-01-14 08:19:38 Whoever proposed this should have lost 2 bonds (or whatever a too early proposal does to you). Luckily, the dispute system is awful, so you're going to get away with it :) .

2026-01-14 08:26:46 FYI. This is the reason for the dispute. https://t DOT me/tkachenkotymur/2202 (BPLA is drone)

2026-01-14 19:50:32 Devil's advocate: how do you know there was a stirke? Perhaps it was an intercepted drone falling to earth? My (unofficial) rule of thumb is it has to explode, and there's little evidence here of that.

2026-01-14 20:06:34 Without having a go at Polymarket, there is the rules, and there is the interpretation of the rules. These things are not the same. E.g. the rules here are being interpreted as if "consensus" applies across all of the 3 resolution clauses, when in fact it only applies to the third. A recent example of when a single source was good enough was the "US next strikes Iran on...?" market, where one announcement by AfricaCom was enough to resolve a significantly larger market than this one. All reporting here has involved zero new info, it's just basically been reposting of Tymur's T'gram post, so ignoring that is fair. As I said to you elsewhere though, even a strict application of the rules here, where a single gvt source would qualify, still allows for a NO as Tymur's post is lacking in detail.

2026-01-14 20:59:36 I feel like I'm a PVE person on a PVP server - stop filling my 0.1c YES orders! :)

2026-01-14 22:25:11 You 99.9c buyers are why we can't have nice things.

2026-01-15 08:41:22 I'd like you to be right - that's my bias going into this. You are, however, incorrect about the credible reporting part - unless something new has come out in the past few hours, all the reporting was just "Timur says ...". None of them had actually done any work (i.e. called anyone, visited the site, whatever). So anyone proposing using it would be at great risk of a dispute by someone not even in the market who just wants their bond. A UMA vote might however agree on the Timur T'gram post being sufficient, but (and I say this with no real knowledge of UMA) it might well be a coinflip = possible loss of bond for the proposer again.

2026-01-15 08:44:11 BTW, in case you don't know, I think what happened with the last proposals was the proposer lost $1500 and the disputor got $500, with UMA getting the rest. Polymarket documentation is shockingly outdated though, so I may be wrong.

2026-01-15 09:19:50 I made that misassumption when I fist got here too - "by" means "by end of".

2026-01-15 11:34:20 Debris = NO

2026-01-15 19:31:38 Good company I'm keeping, it seems. I explained in detail somewhere the process, but I can understand you not wanting to trust someone in the comments. Anyway, your solution follows.

2026-01-15 19:37:34 1. The proposer has to be whitelisted (semi-closed group. 2. You can ask someone to make a proposal on Discord: both UMA and Polymarket have subboards called "proposal-requests". Post on one/both with a link here and an explanation of why it should be YES. 3. ***BUT*** it is my opinion that no one will risk $1,500 on this market, Some might be willing to propose if you transfer them the bond directly - I've seen one person suggest that in the past, although I don't know that he wasn't joking - but be warned that if disputed, and if the vote goes against you, you will lose $1,500 (of course, if disputed and you win, you gain $500 :) ). 4. I advise against this but, if you do, Good luck!

2026-01-15 19:43:57 No confirmation that it was a strike. This is the most supportive I could find [link removed] but it's undermined because the consensus of reporting is that it was debris; that's what Timur said; and the police statement doesn't contradict the debris narrative (IMO).

2026-01-15 19:52:23 Trump.

2026-01-15 20:45:04 Check out the date.

2026-01-15 20:47:37 Yep. Can you?

2026-01-15 21:48:27 After. Not on main page (may have been removed) but is still on RSS feed page.

2026-01-15 21:53:41 This is being proposed based on the RSS feed linked at the top of that page. I think it's P4 Early, but I'm not experienced enough to know what I'm talking about :) .

2026-01-15 21:54:36 This is being proposed based on the RSS feed linked at the top of the AfricaCom page. I think it's P4 Early, but I'm not experienced enough to know what I'm talking about :) .

2026-01-15 21:55:36 RSS feed isn't fake, but there is scope for it to be an error.

2026-01-15 22:02:17 Are you saying that there's a previous case where it's been posted, then deleted, but remained on the RSS feed, and that that case resolved YES? Because I don't believe you. Anyway, if it can be disputed, someone who knows what they're doing will grab the $6k.

2026-01-15 23:20:55 Anyone else watching the timer?

2026-01-16 00:22:49 I think you'll find that was set up at 23:00 local on 14th (i.e. after the 14 Jan strike).

2026-01-16 07:47:10 No skin off my nose - I was holding YES. But it would have been good to test the theory that the rules require consensus.

2026-01-16 10:25:35 I think they heard you.

2026-01-16 11:32:27 Combined with other reporting, it's good enough IMO.

2026-01-16 20:31:15 No one wants to lose $750.

2026-01-17 08:05:59 Erroneous but reasonable data? I.e. has it ever posted something that seems entirely spurious, or is it just pulling data from somewhere unexpected?

2026-01-17 08:18:22 Que?

2026-01-17 23:28:25 I haven't been following this, but presumably a bunch of you here have. Why haven't you bought the 99c shares?

2026-01-18 22:23:33 Realistically, yes, as unlikely to be apparent as such within the first 2 days: "The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting ... market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time"

2026-01-19 02:51:35 Repeating LIQUIDITY's message - "Reminder: WU posts erroneous data for Seoul." Did anyone ever figure out what is going on?

2026-01-19 07:35:11 In that case, buy NO. If there are no aliens, you win money, and if there are, it'll be worthless anyway.

2026-01-20 00:56:08 It's over. You can check out the vote at [link removed] there's still 23 hours to go, but the vote stands at 100% with 3m out of the necessary 17m votes revealed. If there was going to be a vote against the Polymarket clarification (which there wouldn't have been, but if), you'd have seen it by now. For every $9,990 you put into NO you will get an extra $10 back.

2026-01-20 00:58:40 Yes. Sell your shares and get $1.

2026-01-20 09:09:49 Me! I've got $0.18 riding on this.

2026-01-20 20:02:18 Those cautioning against buying YES on this one are not without reason. You can tell by what I'm holding what I think, and people use comments to manipulate, but I'm already at max exposure to this market. ISW did say this immediately after talking about Zarichne in their 19 Jan assessment: "ISW will continue to refine and update its assessment as more information becomes available." AFAIK this is unusual - we're all aware of how conservative ISW is with their painting, so normally they only paint if it's utterly confirmed. Painting and including a warning that the painting might be "refined" is unusual. Caveat emptor.

2026-01-20 20:16:09 UMA is in no way rigging this, they're just applying the rules correctly. This would have gone NO without the clarification; with the clarification it couldn't resolve any other way. And you bought after all of this was apparent.

2026-01-20 22:48:07 Usually a day+ after, unless there's a holiday or similar: "shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date"

2026-01-20 23:30:56 I think you meant you bought NO. $8 worth! Seriously, buy more - if you put in $3k, you can buy an apartment with your winnings.

2026-01-20 23:34:28 ISW need to finalise for it to count: you'll see them note that they've done it where it currently says "ISW updates frontline geometry based on available open-source information starting at 9:00 AM"

2026-01-21 19:26:59 Point capture, no whole.

2026-01-21 23:33:26 (a) you can't; (b) already in progress

2026-01-22 00:36:49 gg

2026-01-22 00:37:50 It's not automatic. And this sort of market usually required the proposer to be on the whitelist, which isn't a lot of people.

2026-01-22 02:35:00 Hey, if they're shutting it down again, what does that mean about its status right now?

2026-01-22 02:35:18 It's back baby.

2026-01-22 03:28:31 Handle checks out :)

2026-01-22 03:30:29 We found the Iranian.

2026-01-22 03:33:30 Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether someone has hacked Cloudflare and they're misreporting, or whether Elon has been make President for life and they've opened up. If Cloudflare metric hits 20% for 4 hours in a row, then it's YES. It's been at 20%+ for 6 hours now.

2026-01-22 03:46:23 Nope. Resolution source is clear.

2026-01-22 04:01:47 You don't often see this level of coordinated FUD in the comments. Nicely done guys.

2026-01-22 04:07:41 Given your holdings, I'll assume you're the one person not talking shit here. It doesn't really matter when you start the 4 week count, as 8 Jan (just prior to shutdown) was the highest under all of them. Makes sense if you think about it. When you look at the 4wk (or whatevee you want), it bases the % off the max, which is that 8 Jan reading. Last I looked, there were 6 consecutive hours above 20%.

2026-01-22 04:52:03 Why wait until Friday if it's been turned on today?

2026-01-22 04:52:55 "according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have recovered to at least 20% of the prior 4 weeks Max for a minimum of four consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends - Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart.

2026-01-22 08:20:03 The resolution criterion might have been dogshit - I don't know enough to say. What I do know is that it at least allowed us to have a definitive Yes/No answer to the question.

2026-01-22 10:55:20 Look at Mynohrad for your answer.

2026-01-23 03:54:39 Well that's not good.

2026-01-23 10:34:52 Umm, what's with Vucic?

2026-01-23 11:02:57 Anybody else not quite believing what's happening?

2026-01-23 18:47:49 So you're saying it would be a surprise attack?!!

2026-01-23 20:06:04 Because they're going to win and get to keep $500?

2026-01-23 21:17:33 USA.

2026-01-23 21:29:45 When are we there!

2026-01-23 22:19:00 Or always bet on Somalia?

2026-01-23 23:18:58 There are two types of market: "on" and "by". A By market works the way you describe, but this is an On market. I'd suggest you ladder out to lower risk - there's a reasonable chance they'll be hit on any particular day, but perhaps 25%? Could be lower. Anyway, good luck.

2026-01-23 23:20:48 Outdated. They'd have settled for that a few months go. Now they'll take Odessa.

2026-01-23 23:44:17 Somalia still predates, so it's all good.

2026-01-24 00:29:23 Worth a try, but no.

2026-01-24 02:44:39 Dispute then.

2026-01-24 02:46:27 Your position is that stealth munitions attacked silently prior to that?

2026-01-24 02:52:34 This is so disputable! Come on someone.

2026-01-24 03:12:11 [link removed]

2026-01-24 03:33:09 48+ hours of waiting isn't really necessary on this market. I think we'll know when it pops off.

2026-01-24 05:20:02 I was kidding.

2026-01-24 05:28:02 Somalia has had a strike; Iran has not. Therefore Somalia is YES, Iran NO. But because of a quirk with the Proposal system, Somalia is currently stuck in a voting cycle over whether or not it was proposed too early (not over whether or not it is the winner). Once that vote is take, even if it goes against the proposal and is found to have been to early, it will immediately be proposed YES and will resolve.

2026-01-24 07:34:13 Buckle up. After today, the Ukrainians might get shooty.

2026-01-24 08:00:23 If it's a choice between the Epstein files or the UFO files, it's going to be the UFO files.

2026-01-24 08:51:35 It was - this marke is EET, not ET.

2026-01-24 08:52:19 "On", not "by". 48 hours wait for consensus not necessary if consensus already reached.

2026-01-24 10:57:37 Why was Merz so cheap? He said in his WEF speech that he spoke to Trump.

2026-01-25 02:06:03 I believe there was a pic/video of him leaving a side gaggle at WEF that involved Trump.

2026-01-25 03:41:08 Really? Oh well, there's the best part of a week left for them to speak.

2026-01-25 04:56:29 Which brave soul disputed 22nd! That's got to hurt.

2026-01-25 08:45:12 Why have all the others resolved but not this one? Seems odd.

2026-01-25 21:57:45 Always boom.

2026-01-25 22:09:24 The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2026-01-25 22:10:16 What is the primary resolution source for this market?

2026-01-25 22:22:18 If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET - hahahahahahahahaha

2026-01-26 01:35:30 Link?

2026-01-26 02:40:22 Not on the fact, but on the timing. Even if the disputes were successful (IMO they should be, but I'm the minority) it would immediately resolve YES with no dispute (so 2hr wait).

2026-01-26 03:33:39 Just looked at the voting, and it's definitely going YES for Somalia (if anyone reading this is confused, this is about the old 31 Dec market, not the new one).

2026-01-26 03:34:47 User error is the most likely explanation for that.

2026-01-26 05:21:08 Looks like the bots need a little maintenance.

2026-01-26 11:33:10 [link removed]

2026-01-26 20:02:37 Possibly too unwieldy in the UI?

2026-01-26 20:16:56 Split into different market: European Leader, Shithole Country leader, etc.

2026-01-26 23:13:39 Dispute vote over in 47 mins. Finally!

2026-01-26 23:39:33 the dispute raise and voted on was purely on whether or not the market was proposed early: neither side was disputing the somalia strike was YES. The market has resolved YES (or will in 21 mins). I suspect if you did the math in detail you'd find the Syria strike predates market creation.

2026-01-26 23:51:35 All that effort to line the joke up wasted. I give up!

2026-01-27 03:02:59 EST=UTC-5, AST=UTC+3. Market creation 16 Jan 14:06 ET. Syrian strike Jan 16 12:00 AST (no time given, so use default). 12:00 AST on 16 Jan is 04:00 ET 16 Jan. I.e. prior to market creation.

2026-01-27 03:06:20 I'm not saying this is happening, but here's a scenario: you've read about a strike in Syria/Yemen/etc; the level of reporting is not such that it would resolve YES; you buy some cheap shares in the hope that CENTCOM confirm this before the clock runs out and the market is proposed YES for Somalia.

2026-01-27 05:42:30 SO LONG TO WAIT!

2026-01-27 05:48:31 Esta nota es sobre la pagina del AFRICOM. Media Room/Press Releases. Es la nota veintitres jenero, a las cinco y veintiseis. (No se "EEUU", pero creo que es no importante.)

2026-01-27 05:49:59 Luckily for you you are unabe to dispute now, because you would lose your bond ($750-$1500).

2026-01-27 07:40:07 On the contrary, the Ukrainians appear to report even minor drone hits that don't cause any damage. Of course, I suppose it's still possible that they're not reporting loads of drone hits, but given what I've seen, I don't think that's the case.

2026-01-28 17:12:39 gg

2026-01-28 17:14:37 If.

2026-01-28 17:14:57 Just about to :) .

2026-01-28 17:17:26 Liberacion, Le Parisien, TF1, BFM, AFP.

2026-01-28 17:28:05 You're suggesting that the market will resolve on just a screenshot of some texts? That people have been pouring money into YES for days based on that? Okay, I guess.

2026-01-28 17:43:47 Thu 15 Jan.

2026-01-28 19:39:26 Eh? Are we linking all the articles that don't mention somethign? Because that might take a while, and is not a refutation. Anyway, it was published at lunchtime, and the news of the call came out around 8pm.

2026-01-28 19:41:39 Funniest result would be P4, followed by a call tomorrow. I am, however, willing to forgo the amusement.

2026-01-28 19:42:27 Nothing to do with the text messages.

2026-01-28 19:43:10 Except (a) there's the context of what they were speaking about, and (b) the articles give the date of the call.

2026-01-28 19:45:00 This would only be the case if multiple reliable media outlets allowed themselves to be fooled by it. Which they would not, and it would only take 1 to question the veracity with proof to resolve the other way.

2026-01-28 19:46:37 It was on the news. Do you think US or UK citizens give a fuck who Macron talks to? I don't suppose French citizens do much either, but it's at least of some relevence to them.

2026-01-28 19:49:07 Phone calls are often not listed (not just in France - this is common to all countries).

2026-01-28 19:57:55 Close, but no cigar. "Municipality" is what counts.

2026-01-28 20:32:33 I disagree, obviously, but I'm confused as to why you're not buying NO then? Put $1k in, get $60k out. Seems like a great deal.

2026-01-28 21:29:26 You can't without staking. Realistically, AFAIK, that requires about $700 of UMA and a small amount of POL (you don't need 1000 UMA, but I think you get gas rebates, or similar). But if you vote "wrong" you'll be financially penalised, and so I'd personally advise against it.

2026-01-28 21:30:19 Yes. Genuine advice - sell at 3c ONO.

2026-01-28 21:32:07 We've spoken about this in the Discord, but for those not monitoring that, there is no requirement in this market for official announcements.

2026-01-28 21:34:15 Reporting says "spoke on the telephone".

2026-01-29 01:17:54 Consensus does not require everyone to comment or make note of a thing. At the end of the day, this market is "did they speak" - having seen all the French sources that say they did, do you really believe that they did not?

2026-01-29 21:03:50 Didn't the Bolsonaro market a few months back resolve NO because UMA wouldn't take Trump's statement by itself that they'd spoken as good enough?

2026-01-30 07:35:52 Macron is going to resolve YES based on copious French reporting.

2026-01-30 07:37:57 I mean, the Commander in Chief . . .

2026-01-30 07:38:46 Can you point to the place where US media is required for resolution?

2026-01-30 20:31:33 Found the gay retard.

2026-01-30 23:09:10 There's no way the market falls 10c on no news, but I can't find anything. Maybe local press only at this stage?

2026-01-30 23:58:38 Not so. French media all call it some variant of "spoke by telephone"

2026-01-31 00:00:26 Sort of. At that point, "consensus" would kick in, and some might argue "reliable". But I think it'd really just be consensus - you'd need to own probably 3 media outlets that weren't obviously connected.

2026-01-31 00:01:42 The biggest problem with Putin is the lack of a date. E.g. with Macron, if the reporting didn't all say 3 Jan, there might have been a problem (and fair enough too - it only qualified by a few days).

2026-01-31 07:15:21 They put the cuffs on him. The Americans were so involved that Sheinbaum is getting her information about what happened from the US, not from Mexican police/paramilitary forces.

2026-01-31 08:58:04 He was definitely taken into custody by US personnel on Mexican soil. Given what Sheinbaum says, unless her own police/military don't talk to her, without Mexican forces being present: "Sheinbaum on Tuesday reiterated the position that Wedding surrendered, but with a slight shift. The Mexican president said that this belief was based on information provided to her government by the U.S. "U.S. authorities told Mexican authorities that there was a voluntary surrender," said Sheinbaum. "Now, how exactly did he surrender? Well, we don't know the details. What we do know is what the United States authorities here told Mexican authorities."

2026-01-31 17:30:52 There's a difference between what I think happened, and what I think UMA will rule given the current state of the market.

2026-02-01 00:23:28 If this were the case, why would the Mexican president be admitting that her knowledge of what happened comes entirely from what the Americans told her?

2026-02-01 09:31:11 In reality, it's unlikely that the Mexicans effected the arrest. That's why Sheinbaum keeps saying "the Americans told me it was a surrender".

2026-02-01 10:23:18 How happy is Eia right now :) .

2026-02-01 19:16:05 Blame ISW - they're why we can't have nice things.

2026-02-01 20:12:04 There are 24m tokens voting.

2026-02-02 21:52:19 Created At: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

2026-02-02 22:02:27 US media only.

2026-02-03 01:21:28 There's a decent argument that this livestream occurred after the voting process had started.

2026-02-03 02:05:07 Someone dispute this so we can have everything tied up for 2 days.

2026-02-03 02:05:24 See clarification.

2026-02-03 03:09:15 Yeah, but they have a point - most people aren't exposed enough to make risking $750 (or $1500) worthwhile. I had 1000 YES shares of anti cartel at 5c that I sold because I didn't think it was worth me pushing it into UMA by myself. Next day the market flipped :) .

2026-02-03 06:51:25 Yes, it will be the whales that look foolish after you do this.

2026-02-03 18:35:54 Quran 2:219

2026-02-03 18:36:09 I

2026-02-03 20:12:52 Unless you live in Somalia.

2026-02-03 20:16:25 Now we wait . . .

2026-02-03 20:31:11 It's an interesting idea. Basically you'd need hard-limits on the amount of money that any one person could put into a market. Very few people would, I suspect, participate in such a training wheels market though.

2026-02-03 21:07:29 Double negative.

2026-02-03 21:44:15 Delay until 17:00 ET following day to allow for other reports to emerge. I.e. Somalia is not 100% certain (it might be 99%, but it's not 100%).

2026-02-04 06:53:50 You misunderstand the terms.

2026-02-04 18:22:49 All markets can be solved at 17:00 ET, surely?

2026-02-04 19:02:29 Ah, I see your point. "If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting," applies to Syria as well. In which case, it could be argued the entire market (or at least the possible YES ones) needs to be kept open until 5 Jan 17:00 ET.

2026-02-04 19:06:24 Yep, this is true. They really hate those Syria terrorists, and dropped all the bombs on the first day.

2026-02-04 21:03:03 What do you think the rules say?

2026-02-04 21:21:27 No set time - I've seen 13:30 and 18:00. And not at all, as recently, but that's rare.

2026-02-04 23:08:25 This is going to be a dick pic, right?

2026-02-05 02:52:45 Let's go! Painting's back in fashion.

2026-02-05 05:20:21 Not really Polymarket's fault.

2026-02-05 05:21:03 You are correct, Russia has not taken the entirety of Ukraine.

2026-02-05 19:12:49 DeepState is no better at reflecting reality. To achieve what you want, it would be beeter to use a neutral-to-Russian-leaning map. But the simple answer is that it's just so much more convenient using a single map. E.g. imagine trying to iverlay maps to see if 100% of a town has been captured

2026-02-05 19:13:17 Too early. We wait.

2026-02-05 23:25:16 Oh dear, this is not good.

2026-02-06 08:42:20 "the nomination hasn't been handed to senate yet which is required by the rules"

2026-02-06 11:16:59 Kyiv is scheduled to be nuked on the 9th.

2026-02-07 08:32:04 To be fair, Starmer would be on less that 7% YES.

2026-02-09 05:22:33 DoughCon 2

2026-02-09 21:53:04 Except he's still holding all 4m YES shares.

2026-02-10 17:22:00 Now you're reduced to hoping that ISW don't paint a small field next to a town that they say has been taken by the Russians.

2026-02-10 23:13:19 Why not? It's passed 2 finalisations.

2026-02-11 04:11:23 Of course. He's not retarded.

2026-02-11 07:49:24 Have a closer look.

2026-02-11 16:50:42 ISW: "US forces conducted airstrikes on likely Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) targets in the central Syrian desert on February 7 and 9." [link removed]

2026-02-11 16:51:11 [link removed]

2026-02-11 21:11:57 ***February 4, 2015 Release***

2026-02-11 22:56:12 Basically, if you have to ask, it's too complicated to achieve.

2026-02-12 04:57:58 What have I missed?

2026-02-12 05:02:01 Wait, I can't see any confirmed hits yet. Why is this in the 90s?

2026-02-12 05:04:54 Klitschko's posts: "The debris is falling near another residential building in the Dniprovskyi district."

2026-02-12 05:05:17 "The fall of debris near a residential building in the Dniprovskyi district."

2026-02-12 08:33:19 That is quite literally insane, as they all point to Klitschko, and occasionally Tkachenko .

2026-02-12 08:35:37 Not exactly: he doesn't specify where those infrastructure targets were.

2026-02-12 11:22:38 Ah, I see, there was thi: "In Goloseevsky and Desnyansky districts, it was a hit on non-residential buildings."

2026-02-12 18:15:19 Under the old standard, this would have resolved YES as well from Klitschko's "In Goloseevsky and Desnyansky districts, it was a hit on non-residential buildings." The real problem is that (a) all of the subsequent reporting just uses our two main sources, and (b) relying on reporting introduces a lot of scope for miscommunication, where they report hits that were actually debris.

2026-02-12 18:43:07 Have a guess.

2026-02-12 20:39:28 ***formally*** nominates to be Chair . . . Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

2026-02-13 17:12:36 Five hours later . . .

2026-02-13 17:14:00 Oh no! You accidentally sold.

2026-02-13 19:18:46 It's shit like this that makes me sympathise with them excluding all Arab media.

2026-02-13 19:31:46 No county.

2026-02-14 00:24:28 You've got 21.5 hours of 14 Feb to go.

2026-02-14 03:17:14 Spend your own money cockroach.

2026-02-14 15:54:22 Lol. No.

2026-02-14 16:20:14 [link removed]

2026-02-14 22:09:29 Can't argue with the logic - primary not available, backup doesn't say "full".

2026-02-15 02:09:45 The sooner you normalise it, the better.

2026-02-15 16:55:29 You just had to say things were boring, didn't you.

2026-02-17 08:50:09 Good. A well-rested Musk is a tweety Musk.

2026-02-18 06:52:49 All the Somalia strikes are in cooperation with local government.

2026-02-18 07:12:16 Is this gonna be a double dispute?

2026-02-18 07:57:46 That had nothing to do with UMA. Polymarket issued a clarification saying "the conditions have been met." Bad call, but that's a different matter, and they adjusted the rules in the new market to sidestep the issue.

2026-02-19 09:49:22 Yes, Iran. Congratulations!

2026-02-19 09:52:31 "This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike."

2026-02-19 21:29:05 It's Trump. He's trolling.

2026-02-20 03:28:18 I'm trying to catch up: are we at the influencer-binder stage, or the redacted documents stage?

2026-02-20 18:19:40 Doesn't count. He's stapling green cards to speeding tickets.

2026-02-20 19:51:08 So strange how the whales haven't bought all these cheap shares and proposed. If they keep making stupid decisions like this, they'll not be whales for long.

2026-02-20 19:53:07 You misunderstand his point.

2026-02-20 19:54:05 Why has no one proposed yet?

2026-02-20 23:26:32 You're too late to make money on the shift - it's reverting back to pre-announcement price.

2026-02-21 10:07:06 I do hope you're talking about him being an insider.

2026-02-21 20:32:44 Exposure. It's always possible ISW will rug pull, and not even in a scammy way. They really don't like painting red, and if someone sticks his head up for 30s and waves a flag east of their painting, they'll undo it in a second.

2026-02-22 02:59:13 And that is how a new a/c acquires a history.

2026-02-22 19:10:10 You should probably buy then.

2026-02-23 08:29:02 Depends on the process. Likely a YES when you think it through.

2026-02-24 08:56:06 Unless that boat was smuggling soil for growing pot, you're out of luck.

2026-02-26 18:43:41 Then my extravagant friend, we are fucked.

2026-02-26 21:03:54 According to which rule? Can you point to it please.

2026-02-27 00:44:30 Why hasn't the map finalised yet? ISW should have left the office by now for the weekend.

2026-02-27 01:35:54 Car.

2026-02-27 01:45:32 I agree. Propose please.

2026-02-27 01:46:18 Excellent. I support you proposing this 100%.

2026-02-27 06:52:51 It's not ideal, I'll grant you, but we have reports of strikes on multiple days after the 19th. We're just waiting for AFRICOM to confirm.

2026-02-27 08:18:29 Look again.

2026-02-27 08:35:03 I'm not quite sure what your position is. The area that on the ISW map is shaded light grey and is Pokrovsk has been coloured red for two days now. ISW have written about it. It's their pinned tweet.

2026-02-27 15:56:39 I mean, yes?

2026-02-27 19:18:16 Sadly this can be proposed, but because of the whitelist system it won't be until after another finalisation.

2026-02-27 19:42:25 Hi.

2026-02-27 20:07:50 (aged poorly :D )

2026-02-27 21:57:02 Responding to this, I would imagine: "Alerts in Kyiv were on 26 February 03:31AM - 06:44AM, and 06:54AM - 07:33AM EET. There were no alerts on 25 February"

2026-02-28 08:30:03 Name checks out.

2026-02-28 08:35:30 You realise you have to keep the shares in order to try to claim?

2026-02-28 08:48:43 He better hurry up if he wants to see Israel.

2026-02-28 09:20:44 Somalia got hit first. Delayed report.

2026-02-28 09:21:37 When did they finish?

2026-02-28 09:26:22 You load up 750 USDC.e (not USDC) and about $1 of POL onto your wallet (direct transfer from Poly works). You click Dispute and connect your wallet to UMA. You bond your $750. You lose. The proposer gets $250 of your bond, and UMA gets the other $500.

2026-02-28 09:27:18 Delayed report for 22nd-26th.

2026-02-28 09:48:20 UST IN: A whole building was directly hit in Ashkelon in Israel

2026-02-28 09:48:31 JUST IN: A whole building was directly hit in Ashkelon in Israel

2026-02-28 10:55:51 Where are your shares?

2026-02-28 16:26:36 This is literally insane

2026-02-28 16:42:37 People being hopeful.

2026-02-28 16:50:44 How so? There's a good explanation for not painting those parts. It's not a good reason, but that's a slightly different matter.

2026-02-28 18:37:31 "Ansar Allah's political bureau publicly warned the United States against launching military aggression against Iran, stating that such an attack would amount to war and that they are prepared to enter such a war" [link removed]

2026-02-28 19:36:58 Grok, how do you start a regime change uprising?

2026-02-28 19:38:08 This is not helping my antisemitism.

2026-02-28 19:38:58 Also in the new, Iran has been weeks away from making a bomb for 20 years.

2026-02-28 19:46:58 Sure.

2026-02-28 19:54:40 You should definitely guy more while it's discounted.

2026-02-28 19:55:09 You should definitely buy more while it's discounted.

2026-02-28 19:55:37 Sometime before the last Somalia strike I would say.

2026-02-28 20:08:04 "Oh no, the cheap shares I bought hoping to benefit from a rulecuck are worthless!"

2026-02-28 22:17:29 The Iran attack was initiated in July 2025, they just paused to restock.

2026-02-28 22:22:25 We know a bomb dropped on 26 Feb. So you're left arguing to UMA that an operation on 22-26 Feb didn't predate one on 28 Feb. At a time when the market is 90/10 against you. Good luck with that one.

2026-03-01 00:08:08 Now we wait 2 days (. . . more likely 2 weeks)

2026-03-01 02:19:38 Yep. The lesson of today that everyone learned was to love the Jews more.

2026-03-01 02:29:30 They got struck?

2026-03-01 03:17:07 The Juwes are the men that will not be blamed for nothing.

2026-03-01 04:31:40 It's just one of those weekends. Can't wait for Monday.

2026-03-01 07:10:52 WHEN ARE WE THERE!

2026-03-01 07:11:26 That was back in July 2025.

2026-03-01 07:17:18 Sam reason as last time - they could, but unless they're involved in the market it's a lot of risk for very little reward. It only takes one news article that they weren't aware of saying some babushka's garden het was hit by a drone and they lose $750.

2026-03-01 07:29:55 Yeah, except it isn't really. It's because Israel wants Iran off the board.

2026-03-01 07:32:59 Wait, why isn't this reported on by CNN. I thought Qatar was hit?!!

2026-03-01 07:44:14 That's not what I wanted to hear, it's been a shocking weekend. I want Trump 45 back.

2026-03-01 07:45:09 Except this isn't reported anywhere, so it's just another twitter/youtube rumour I've fallen for.

2026-03-01 07:48:28 Shit, that;s not a credible outlet. Or at least it isn't in the Gaza market, so I assume the same applies here?

2026-03-01 07:50:48 Yeah . . . 2 weeks after it finished, and only after we'd complained forever about it on Discord.

2026-03-01 09:55:33 Yeah, that was on 28 Feb though.

2026-03-01 11:00:50 Stop filling me - I'm trying to earn rewards!

2026-03-01 20:08:29 Definitely a flaw in the system. The other one I hate is the 2hr dispute window - hasn't happened to me yet, but I hate the thought that I could go to bed and with no notification wake up to find the market resolved against me. Overall though, Polymarket is great, it just needs polishing.

2026-03-01 20:55:09 Shit

2026-03-01 21:21:57 Netanyahu and CENTCOM call it a joint campaign. This is going 50:50

2026-03-01 23:53:54 Israel side is cooked. This rule - "strikes occur simultaneously" - is not there to cover situations where an observer is standing there with a stopwatch.

2026-03-02 00:30:36 Shouldn't you be buying Israel at 58c then?

2026-03-02 00:34:28 I've read it. It doesn't say that. It does say: “This morning’s strike was carried out simultaneously at several locations in Tehran, in one of which senior figures of Iran’s political-security echelon had gathered,”

2026-03-02 00:35:57 I'm curious as to what you think this one shows.

2026-03-02 02:54:47 Lol. Source says "about" 01:00 ET. Nice try.

2026-03-02 02:55:49 6%. You get $3 for every $47 you put in. Was 20% earlier when 7682903 sperged.

2026-03-02 03:21:41 It's not a vote. Go ahead and do it, just understand what you're doing.

2026-03-02 05:59:40 Often in the comments people troll in order to get a better price. I've done it myself. Not here though, as you're seeing with the way the price has moved over those 7 hours.

2026-03-02 07:10:02 30 mins of work should do it.

2026-03-02 15:57:14 Yep.

2026-03-02 18:43:24 It means the market will resolve the way it should. Israel-firsters are ignoring this part of the rules "strikes occur simultaneously . . . this market will resolve 50-50" and saying that Israel hit a few minutes before the US. A bold strategy.

2026-03-02 19:19:08 So tempted to start shit on this market.

2026-03-02 22:06:51 What happened? Did they release a video? I'm so cooked.

2026-03-03 00:25:50 Wait, why is Israel winning?!!

2026-03-03 01:35:16 Do you think when they wrote that rule they intended for it to only apply to situations where ground impacts were within a nanosecond of each other? What would happen if one was a picosecond ahead of the other?

2026-03-03 01:41:58 Get your $1500 ready for the dispute then. Good news, if you win it (and you might) you get $500 of the other guy's bonds. Of course, if you lose it you lose all $1500 of yours.

2026-03-03 01:50:51 It's too late. Not that it would have made a difference - it's quality not quantity that might have shifted the vote (this is not to suggest that your opinions are worthless, just that without some amazing fact that no one else had surfaced, they wouldn't have made any difference, and might even have counted against your side).

2026-03-03 02:14:49 Ah, ignore me, I was being an idiot. The clarification covers this - recordings will not be used, so there was no qualifying video.

2026-03-03 02:19:22 I thought so too. But looks like people are starting to vote P4 (too early - if successful, it'd mean we have to wait for another round of voting).

2026-03-03 06:37:46 Here. It's only really useful after the reveal phase starts, which is 24hrs after the 2nd dispute. It started ~7hrs ago, so there's another 17ish left. [link removed]

2026-03-03 06:47:07 It's worse than that when you look at the internal demographics.

2026-03-03 08:25:34 Sell Israel and buy US.

2026-03-03 08:26:16 Perhaps answer my question first?

2026-03-03 08:57:47 Lol.

2026-03-03 09:40:17 Nope. Clarifications come before a vote.

2026-03-03 09:43:04 If it happens Polymarket will clarify that it doesn't count. This is clearly for intentional operations, even small-unit ones.

2026-03-03 10:11:30 So stupid putting these in ET. Arabian time would synch with most of the target.

2026-03-03 19:07:59 Where's the retweet button?

2026-03-03 19:09:02 "Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. "

2026-03-03 20:03:54 There is risk with this one - it really doesn't fit the counteroffensive narrative. That's why you're trying to offload at 95c instead of holding for another day.

2026-03-03 22:11:00 Some complaints about UMA are fair enough - there's another market that they're currently voting YES that should be NO (not their fault - the market should have had a longer wait period to allow information to settle first). But this here was the correct decision.

2026-03-03 22:12:58 Yeah. They should just let anyone vote.

2026-03-03 22:14:06 I would have gladly lost this if you'd bought $8 million of UMA and flipped it.

2026-03-03 22:15:50 There's only a 4% chance that you'll be able to speak to him this year. https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027

2026-03-04 00:56:03 You, sir, are a stupids.

2026-03-04 01:01:06 2 days to settle. Mad.

2026-03-04 03:58:16 Why would you trust the word of someone seeking to profit from you?

2026-03-04 04:04:37 I'd rather you didn't, as it'll slow down payout, but Joker would love to get another $250 from you. (You'll lose $1500 total on the disputes BTW, in case you're new to this.)

2026-03-04 04:16:29 I don't know dude. Looks more like a series of increasingly bad decisions with one last hail Mary play for redemption. Still, best of luck.

2026-03-04 05:08:47 This is actually very funny. You'll understand why sometime in the next two days.

2026-03-04 08:14:04 Jesus Christ buddy, this isn't funny anymore. Take some time to reassess playing in these markets - you're not making good decisions.

2026-03-04 08:38:56 The aliens part of the news cycle has passed. People here just need to catch up.

2026-03-04 17:02:16 [link removed] You can't vote.

2026-03-04 17:04:01 Sell Israel, buy US.

2026-03-04 21:44:48 Unreliable.

2026-03-04 22:43:07 Just give it time. Every time someone dislikes the way a market is going, Polymarket gets back to them.

2026-03-04 22:46:15 Sure. You can comment on Discord - this is free - but voting requires money to stake UMA. When you stake and vote: if you vote "correctly" you earn; if you vote "incorrectly", you lose capital. If they let anyone vote, you'd have people just voting the way they'd bought, which wouldn't add any meaningful information. Worse, if free, you'd get trolls.

2026-03-04 22:50:24 Didn't the Bilytske one only look odd because they wanted to paint a Ukrainian recapture, which meant they had to rush-paint an infiltration? Anyway, they say they have geolocated footage from Mar 3 of this Ukrainian advance.

2026-03-05 15:22:38 You can of course - proposals are whitelisted, but disputes are open to all. The person who proposed would however be very grateful, as you will lose your bond.

2026-03-05 15:56:07 On the 5th

2026-03-05 19:22:29 Having gone through BTC to 16k, I can say it's not.

2026-03-06 04:59:25 1 minute

2026-03-06 05:00:43 Crucially though, they do have to be clips of the actual event. This sounds like a silly point until you see what some people are saying should qualify.

2026-03-06 05:04:37 What it means is that the video has to be of the event, but that pre-recorded clips (e.g. a celebrity who couldn't make it but recorded a segment for the event that was played at the event) or AI clips (say the brought Steve Jobs back to life to introduce a new product) would count. But not if they're just random clips that had nothing to do with the event, or unboxings that were filmed before the event, etc.

2026-03-06 06:53:27 Yeah. In theory it's not necessary, but in practice the current whitelisted proposers are unlikely to want to test that.

2026-03-06 17:36:01 Nice prediction.

2026-03-06 18:08:36 Nah, that's not it.

2026-03-06 19:34:42 Which fucking cockwomble was that?

2026-03-06 19:36:03 Autobot. It was clarified you idiot.

2026-03-06 20:02:28 Nope, but all bombs should.

2026-03-06 22:21:56 You would lose your bond if you were able to propose.

2026-03-06 22:55:50 Not sure what the other poster was talking about - AJ is fine. That particular source is no good though - can be argued it was any time, and was just posted on 4 March. Lokmat Times would fail, IMO.

2026-03-06 22:57:41 I looked. Couldn't fins anything solid.

2026-03-07 02:25:07 Boom.

2026-03-07 19:44:43 You don't appear to be holding a lot of YES, which might be of concern to any potential proposer.

2026-03-07 21:08:38 “one missile struck an open area in a central town,” - not going to dispute myself, but if this is all YES for 7 March have, that could be an intercepted missile, no?

2026-03-07 22:44:20 They were live at the time, surely?

2026-03-07 23:07:53 You ever seen Wishmaster?

2026-03-07 23:09:56 Anyone want to test the theory that consulates don't count as the host country's soil? That was what I was thinking, hence why I've not bought YES for 4 March.

2026-03-07 23:13:27 Anyone can dispute - you don't need to be whitelisted. Just transfer $750 USDC.e and $1 POL from Polymarket to your wallet; click on Dispute; connect your wallet to UMA. If you win, you get $250 of the other guy's bond, plus all of your bond returned. (If you lose, you lose all of your $750 though)

2026-03-07 23:44:17 I may have forgotten to mention there's a second dispute you'll need to do. Same deal - $750.

2026-03-08 07:49:03 Out of interest, how'd it go last time?

2026-03-08 09:14:43 Subject to approval of the authorities.

2026-03-08 09:16:43 Well the airport's closed, so you couldn't go anywhere anyway.

2026-03-08 09:21:41 The current hope is he'll declare he won and sail away.

2026-03-08 18:34:36 When you read what they base it on, it's even funnier: "they probably managed to entrench themselves in Ternove and in the center of Novonikolayevka"

2026-03-08 18:37:39 Anyone want to buy 5000 1c lottery tickets? You can't win if you don't play.

2026-03-08 18:38:47 Why use an alt to post this? It's not like it's controversial.

2026-03-08 18:43:45 "Credible"

2026-03-08 20:03:18 We have CCTV of a bomblet explosion.

2026-03-08 20:50:25 Thanks you 0x2649558d162F7cCaB29D87F2D7824a4D19A13366. Hope it works out for you!

2026-03-08 20:51:42 Would someone as well educated as an ISW intern fat-finger a market order for 5000 NO after proposal?

2026-03-08 21:04:20 Just in case you're trying to figure it out, you can't vote, but you can make your case for the actual voters to read in these two threads: /channels/718590743446290492/1480090303510614030 and /channels/718590743446290492/1480075185745825906

2026-03-08 23:40:20 This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time

2026-03-09 08:22:17 Never use market orders.

2026-03-09 13:38:27 Have another read of it, plus the sources.

2026-03-10 02:29:43 Why not just do it then, rather than talk about it?

2026-03-10 02:31:42 I haven't looked into it, but apparently they're stopping strike markets. It was fine when it was brown people with no internet, but now they're experiencing Jewish levels of complaining.

2026-03-10 02:32:16 "you retards already locked up my money for 2 days"

2026-03-10 21:14:17 I want to speak to your supervisor?

2026-03-10 21:17:53 [link removed] Find the two entries (one for each dispute). Voting reveals start in 3 hours, and you can see the Discord comments there.

2026-03-11 00:37:47 There are vote on both sides now.

2026-03-11 00:39:28 It hasn't reached Quorum or Consensus yet. But the odds here should tell you which is more likely.

2026-03-11 01:03:57 Don't make me break out the colour chart.

2026-03-11 01:36:53 Why does this process take so long!

2026-03-11 08:22:49 Sure. "The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers."

2026-03-12 20:35:09 Well played YES. I should have kept my NO shares and mounted a schitzo campaign in the comments.

2026-03-14 20:18:26 I'm sorry to be the one to break this to you, but Santa isn't real.

2026-03-14 21:52:12 This is a good way to get muted/banned on the server.

2026-03-15 06:58:06 There is no helping you people. Jesus.

2026-03-16 02:58:51 Eh?

2026-03-16 07:08:36 This market is insane. It just takes the Ukrainians to sign a peace deal giving themselves everything and, even if there's 0% chance the Russians will even read it, this market goes YES.

2026-03-16 10:38:09 Apparently not.

2026-03-16 21:02:52 Unlikely to happen now, especially after the schizos threatened that Israeli journalist over March 10.

2026-03-16 23:08:32 10:50 AM 20 °C 9 °C 49 % WSW 17 km/h 0 km/h 1,013.92 hPa 0.0 mm Fair

2026-03-17 02:45:21 March 2 resolved YES in the UMA vote (after that bad clarification). March 9 has yet to be proposed, and so has not reached UMA.

2026-03-17 07:50:14 @IamBatman Testing

2026-03-17 23:21:39 Wait until you hear what Israel's been doing!

2026-03-17 23:27:20 Someone dispute!

2026-03-18 00:05:18 Hang on. I found an article in The New Indian Express and there's a picture that has a caption that might say this happened on 17 March.

2026-03-18 00:10:02 THE SIDE THAT POSTS THE MOST COMMENTS IN ALL CAPS WINS.

2026-03-18 00:40:00 Hang on. Do soldiers typically hang around in civilian areas or in their fortified (now destroyed) bases during a war?

2026-03-18 01:42:48 Jeff heard you.

2026-03-18 01:58:28 [link removed]

2026-03-18 02:09:24 It's just a flesh wound.

2026-03-18 07:29:57 This must explain why you're holding so much NO.

2026-03-18 08:28:03 New Kyiv strike market! Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20?

2026-03-18 18:57:08 Nope. It has to be targeted at Kyiv, and reporting shows this one was heading for Lvov before it was intercepted.

2026-03-18 19:11:18 BREAKING: Ukraine to send top drone experts to Gulf to advise the US on drone interceptions. "A grandmother in Kyiv claimed to have taken out a drone by throwing a jar of pickles at it."

2026-03-18 21:08:42 Extraterrestrial life. Any life. It'll go to UMA though, but seems pretty clear to me.

2026-03-22 19:47:33 Anyone thinking of disputing: it seems that the map finalisation notice is phased in it's geographical availability. I can see 22 March, but someone I'm talking to on discord still sees 21 March. I would advise against disputing: you will lose. Tysbka has got a record of it, and I've done likewise.

2026-03-22 19:51:09 That chap can see it if he refreshes, so perhaps it was a cache thing, rather than geographic?

2026-03-22 20:10:32 I was going to lol, but I would rather not have a misunderstanding lead to me getting my money tied up here for a couple of days! No. Per the rules, as soon as ISW have completed 2 update cycles with the area shaded, then it's good to go. This has been the case on 100% of Ukraine map markets in the 5 months or so that I've been playing them.

2026-03-22 20:18:19 Anyone thinking of disputing: it seems that the map finalisation notice is phased in it's geographical availability. I can see 22 March, but someone I'm talking to on discord still sees 21 March. I would advise against disputing: you will lose. Tysbka has got a record of it, and I've done likewise.

2026-03-22 21:13:21 15 seconds to go!

2026-03-22 23:31:54 Lol

2026-03-22 23:40:18 A win is a win. You did well out of it.

2026-03-22 23:40:39 Risk Labs, AKA UMA

2026-03-23 00:47:07 Fallacy.

2026-03-23 22:28:49 That is the right question.

2026-03-24 01:31:22 "Over the past week"

2026-03-24 03:35:55 Those aren't votes.

2026-03-24 09:58:46 Yep. Voting commit stage (hidden) for the next 14 hours, then the reveal stage over the following 24. Should all be over soon after that.

2026-03-24 21:00:08 Why?

2026-03-24 21:41:21 Oh, you meant the 27th? That was a YES per new rules.

2026-03-24 22:24:37 [link removed] has already commented P1 NO. Possible they edit that, but with the UMA process already underway this would risk slashing. And the source was already available when [link removed] said P1, so was already evaluated. Even if this does go NO, Car is already up $2k on his trades. Textbook case - a joy to watch (even from the NO side).

2026-03-24 22:27:39 So many degens sitting on their 1-2c lottery tickets. 20c YES holders are locked in, but it's insane these others aren't getting out with 5-10x returns.

2026-03-24 22:29:16 I would advise you to not trust what people tell you (this goes double for Car!). Read the threads in the Discord, and decide for yourself which way you think this is going.

2026-03-24 22:50:05 "Lebanon’s National News Agency reported"

2026-03-25 03:45:57 Has to remain open for another couple of days.

2026-03-25 04:32:31 You can read on Discord, but the summary would be that 90%+ of the reporting is directly sourced from NNA, which Polymarket has previously treated as unreliable. If you see "National News Agency", "NNA", or "state media" in the report you're looking at, it's directly sourced from NNA.

2026-03-26 00:57:29 I wouldn't buy just on that. Cat has made enough money from trading those 1c YES shares that he's up thousands however this one goes.

2026-03-26 01:02:08 Car really is fun to watch. Less fun when on the NO side, I'll admit, but it was worth a few hundred.

2026-03-26 04:39:44 This is incorrect.

2026-03-26 06:14:36 You keep posting this. Why? What's he done to you?

2026-03-26 07:56:47 With my recent record, that might be best.

2026-03-27 00:24:19 ?

2026-03-28 03:49:32 So glad Polymarket addressed the one thing on this site that really needed fixing - pics in comments.

2026-03-30 07:50:34 كلما شددت قبضتك، زادت احتمالية انزلاق أنظمة النجوم من بين أصابعك

2026-03-30 07:55:18 Worse, they stealth edited that notice to add the second date. But you'd have to bond $1,500 to test this theory, and you'd almost certainly lose. In fact, that they stealth edited would count against you, as they could have just written up a new entry, but chose instead to add it to a previous one. Luckily, not an issue now.

2026-03-30 18:54:41 Just some advice: always supply your best support for your preferred position.

2026-03-30 19:21:25 Just because no one has proposed YES prior to the 3 day window expiring, doesn't mean that there's not enough reporting from that period to support a YES. (In this case I don't know if there is or not - haven't checked.)

2026-03-30 19:23:01 Whitelisted only. And not USDC, but rather USDC.e with a buck or so of POL for gas. Same for disputes, which you do not need to be whitelisted to initiate.

2026-03-31 07:46:33 Lol.

2026-03-31 18:56:22 I suspect he was on both sides.

2026-03-31 18:56:37 Reality, always.

2026-03-31 19:17:26 Sure.

2026-04-01 00:22:12 Doesn't look that easy. I wonder why?

2026-04-01 04:20:40 It might not look this way at the moment, but NO is cooked.

2026-04-01 04:27:07 Have a look at the Discord threads. But the article you linked below is the starting point.

2026-04-01 04:29:57 They did indeed deny that strike. They took credit for the killing of Abu Rida though.

2026-04-01 04:35:54 Not all ;) .

2026-04-01 05:30:06 We'll see. I've got IDF confirmation that they killed the guy, so I'm just relying on Palestinian media to confirm that they did it in the way that is the most common way to target someone in Gaza. This isn't the usual vain appeal to UMA to go with reality. Or, at least, I don't think it is.

2026-04-01 06:42:09 No, of course not. Which is why I've got the IDF saying they killed this guy. [link removed]

2026-04-01 06:43:54 This isn't piecing different vague reports together. It's the IDF saying "we killed Abu Rida" and the Palestinians saying "he was killed by the IDF". Everyone agrees.

2026-04-01 10:38:11 Lol. This is the IDF, not some last-century European military. They have drones in all their units.

2026-04-01 19:24:25 They denied the brothers strike, but have actually confirmed that they killed Abu Rida.

2026-04-02 01:37:50 IDF confirmation: "forces of the 188th Brigade eliminated the terrorist Ahmed Fayiz Salem Abu Rida, a terrorist " [link removed] Look at the video. First 5 seconds is the 10 guys (ignore), and the rest is the strike on Abu Rida. You can see the missile coming from the bottom left.

2026-04-02 01:40:25 Nope. They confirmed to Mannie of Time of Israel that they killed Abu Rida.

2026-04-02 01:42:18 This is clearly untrue. Even platoons have access to loitering munitions: brigades on line guard duty have their own drone components. It's not like the IDF is some shonky European army.

2026-04-02 14:38:02 I think the flip probably has more to do with people seeing the second part of the IDF vid than with a newfound trust of Palestinian reporting.

2026-04-02 14:38:38 end of the third calendar date

2026-04-04 00:17:21 We all know there are reports of one of the crew being rescued, right?

2026-04-04 00:18:48 Grok, what does "humanitarian" mean?

2026-04-04 03:15:09 I'm on YES, but that's not how sourcing works. All of those publications just said "according to XYZ" - i.e. they'd verified that XYZ had said it, but not that XYZ were correct. Polymarket treats all Palestinian reporting (with the possible exception of AJ) as unreliable - feel about this how you want to, but it's the case. March 28 has just confirmed that Polymarket (or, more accurately, UMA) will not allow the use of Palestinian reporting to clarify the IDF. So if the IDF says "we killed him" and the Palestinians all say "he was killed by drone missile", the UMA position is that we have no idea how he was killed. Again, feel about that however you want to, but that's how it works.

2026-04-04 05:02:53 UAE doing its Kurgen from Highlander impression.

2026-04-04 10:18:59 Needs a whitelisted proposer to do it. One should be along relatively soon, but the Moscow strike markets were often delayed for days, or even a week, while we waited for one to turn up.

2026-04-04 11:46:44 After the next update, whenever that is.

2026-04-04 11:47:23 A bunch of them may be difficult to resolve.

2026-04-04 19:31:10 Trump's not going to be able to do shit after the Iran debacle.

2026-04-04 19:59:02 Scratch that - after next 2 updates.

2026-04-05 00:14:09 UAE say the intercept everythign though.

2026-04-05 04:18:05 Yes, definitely one of those.

2026-04-05 04:24:49 You might want to look at the reporting since then.

2026-04-06 02:07:48 Umm, are you retarded?

2026-04-07 03:05:25 Specifically, Tom Lee, Cobie, and Arthur_0x

2026-04-07 03:09:08 In fairness to Polymarket, they've applied the standard rule here (the same one used on weather markets etc.). Namely that an update is not treated as finalised until the next update has been released. In this case, that'll be the 13/04 update, so sometime after that. Proposing prior to that will lead to loss of bond.

2026-04-07 09:33:57 This is March?

2026-04-07 23:06:46 Well if the search & recue doesn't count, looks like there's not going to be any invasion in April.

2026-04-07 23:14:42 P3!

2026-04-08 22:40:22 What does this mean? "Ceasefires are always messy," the vice president said, noting that an hour after President Trump announced the ceasefire, there were several missile launches, leading the Israelis and then some of the Gulf Arab states to respond." cbsnews

2026-04-09 01:02:52 Ma'am, this is a Wendy's.

2026-04-09 04:49:44 "The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting."

2026-04-09 22:16:48 I was going to help, but if that's your attitude . . .

2026-04-09 22:36:23 Sorry if this is news to you, but you're effectively NO on April 9. This is a Winner take All market, and only one can be YES. Mouse over the little trophy on the left under the chart at the top for more info.

2026-04-10 04:50:41 Indian? Like I said, sorry dude, but you're fucked.

2026-04-10 08:04:21 Mouse over the Winner takes all trophy (top left of the screen, under the chart, but above the individual markets).

2026-04-10 08:05:09 None

2026-04-10 08:13:33 Okay. Buy more YES on every day other than the 9th.

2026-04-10 11:19:55 Medics don't count.

2026-04-11 07:20:50 by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date

2026-04-12 01:03:13 Banzai!

2026-04-12 02:04:00 What we know is that there was at lest one strike on April 9, and that it's been reported on by AP, as well as major national media. None of that Hezbollah-controlled stuff. So NO are reduced to arguing with the owner of the destroyed building as he stands in front of that destroyed building that his building was not destroyed. UMA can be odd, but resolving against reality when it's supported by credible media is something they don't typically do.

2026-04-12 02:06:30 Yep. The Wednesday strikes were a lot more consequential than the Thursday one(s). But just because there were 100 on one day, it doesn't preclude one on the other.

2026-04-12 03:16:03 "The last strike came shortly after midnight, hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut, which have been regularly hit during the war. Mohammed Mehdi’s barbershop, in operation for 30 years, was destroyed." [link removed]

2026-04-12 07:32:58 That's not how that rule works. It just means that reporting dated after that time can't be used - if the market was proposed a year from now, it could still got YES if qualifying reporting allowed for that.

2026-04-12 07:34:58 Hey RM. Yeah, it is. I've got loads of media (not just Hezbollah stuff) that confirms it. That's the risk with buying NO in these markets.

2026-04-12 07:42:51 The guy with 2.6k NO says no, the guy with 3.1k YES says yes. The only difference is that I bought after I found the articles, whereas he bought without finding them.

2026-04-12 09:13:37 Risk Labs might? Hopefully.

2026-04-12 09:17:55 The black Nazi AI?

2026-04-12 10:04:48 Not one.

2026-04-12 11:39:11 [link removed]

2026-04-12 23:01:47 Dude. It's NO that keeps bringing up April 8. Which articles are you referring to?

2026-04-13 00:47:02 This is a later attack from the one being used to support YES.

2026-04-14 00:58:16 Nope.

2026-04-17 03:24:29 Hey, Poorsob. You're almost certainly safe, right, cause this could never actually go NO. But the risk of bonding on it is crazy! You can get out clean - there's over 6m 99.9c shares on offer. Live to bond another day!

2026-04-17 08:53:31 They don't read the comments dude :) . If you want a say, you need to get on Discord and go to the UMA server. Once there, post in the voting-discussion and someone will tell you what to do. Note though that what many call "voting" is just plebs like you and me giving out opinions (well reasoned and supported, one would hope, but still just opinions). The actual voting is done by people who've staked UMA tokens - in theory they read what is written in the dispute threads.

2026-04-17 09:22:25 Gemini too. If the black Nazi AI says it's P4, it's P4.

2026-04-17 09:24:41 It's definitely the case that people should be very careful about throwing money at this. The odds are very very low, but they're better than most 0.1c attempts because the P4 argument is actually correct. Still very very low though.

2026-04-17 09:27:01 Bos channelling Liam Neeson, "I will find you, ..."

2026-04-17 09:30:30 just type uma discord into google.

2026-04-17 20:02:07 Voting hasn't started yet. It starts in 4 hours, and we start to see the result in 24 hours (they then have another 24 to reveal). You can follow here [link removed] People always confuse us providing our opinions in the dispute threads with actual voting. Everyone in that thread could say Too Early, and the UMA token holders that actually vote can still vote YES if they choose.

2026-04-17 23:20:43 You know how people laugh when someone supplies a Wikipedia article as proof something happened? Well, if even Wikipedia can get this right, what does that say about about Polymarket and prediction markets?

2026-04-20 09:05:33 This is really sad to see guys. Stop buying NO - it cannot go NO: first vote was already YES. It's over. At the beginning there was a small chance that Polymarket would clarify (although even then the chance was they'd clarify YES). Now all you're doing is giving money to the whales. Go and put it on Bitcoin up, or Musk's tweets, or something.

2026-04-20 21:54:10 Yes. A loong range surveillance drone was shot down. How is this relevant?

2026-04-20 21:55:03 In that case, there's a market for you!

2026-04-21 07:52:16 Be careful: If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

2026-04-21 19:37:34 "Keeps winning."

2026-04-22 11:43:25 Can you read?

2026-04-22 22:07:04 This is incorrect. I proposed 2-3, and know a reasonable amount about the 4-5 proposal. 2-3 was solid (actual count was 5 at time of proposal), and *at the time* 4-5 was iffy (more reporting since, would likely pass IMO, and would apparently require a Polymarket clarification to undo and reverse the count). So the count going forward is 6, plus whatever counts since April 18. And the 4-5 bucket dispute was held open for over 12 hours, so there was no easy win there for the guys that proposed. Although the UI doesn't really handle extended dispute periods well.

2026-04-22 23:11:27 *4-5 proposal, not dispute

2026-04-23 03:59:06 Sadly not, at least not a central tracker. For what it's worth, when I last looked it was 8. I went through all the possibles (including Ishyka and Express Rome) and ruled out the "targeted" or similar non-hit ones before proposing 6-7. Two more - the Epaminondas (RPG & seized), and the Francesca (hull damage & seized), on top of the previous lot.

2026-04-23 04:02:41 [link removed]

2026-04-23 06:58:55 Iran's making it easy on us now by releasing bragging videos :) .

2026-04-24 16:41:54 If he's sent Witkoff and Kushner, why are you holding YES?

2026-04-25 17:25:45 For the purposes of this market, and if someone the ISW pays attention to films them getting droned, then it does.

2026-04-27 02:09:47 That might work in UMA - it can be a crapshoot there. But more likely it'll be defeated because it's obvious 100% of the sourcing is to her tweet.

2026-04-27 23:53:07 NO cannot be proposed until 1 May ET.

2026-04-27 23:55:25 VdL sounds like something you really don't want your girlfriend to have.

2026-04-27 23:57:01 It's just how these markets resolve.

2026-04-28 00:40:40 The latter. There have been other markets where things like "spoke" haven't counted. If you're on Discord, have a look in UMA dispute-threads for "mark rutte" and you'll see a recent discussion.

2026-04-28 00:44:32 Just to be clear, I was on YES on that because he said: "conversations", "talked", "told", & "said". There was 100% confirmation from after the market that it was a phone call, but that was disallowed (after the market). And it still went NO.

2026-04-28 00:47:29 The argument is that 100% of reporting to date is just a restatement of the tweet. If they assume it was a phone call, well that's a reasonable deduction, but it doesn't count as evidence for the market. That requires a source confirming it was a phone call (or video, or clandestine assignation, or whatever).

2026-04-28 06:41:49 Jessica's opinion on the Rutte market: "P1 No Trump said called Xi and Press Sec confirmed, market resolved to No per Poly clarification. Why shouldn't this one? It's too subjective to determine a leader is trustworthy or not. We can only judge based on facts."

2026-04-28 06:48:25 There's a chance that spamming links of media reporting a telephone conversation might work at UMA. But NO will just point to the fact that 100% of these are just reporting on the tweet, and assuming it was a phone call. Now, if you can find just one (decent) media source that confirms "telephone" to *any* other source, you're in the money (either you buy, or pick a person with money who'll tip you).

2026-04-28 10:47:29 Sure. The reporting first: 100% of it (that I've seen, anyway) is sourced from the tweet. So if the tweet isn't enough, then the reporting won't be enough. So is the tweet enough? A recent market with Mark Rutte had him saying in a number of different places about an interaction with Trump: "conversations", "told", "said", and "talked" (the actual title of the market!) We even had 100% proof that it was a phone conversation (this was disallowed, as it was after the market close, but it must have put the voters in a receptive mode to any other evidence). And they voted NO. Point is it has to be without-doubt a verbal communication, and people are very lax now in how they use language re. texting. As well, (on this bit I'm not certain) it's possible that a single tweet wouldn't do, even if explicit. Trump Xi went NO, even though Trump and his press secretary said he called (not sure if this is Trump-specific, because he lies).

2026-04-28 20:54:59 Key word there was "confirming". Everyone is just parroting her tweet.

2026-04-28 20:57:41 I was involved in that one. They all confirmed to the Elysee, rather than interpreting a tweet he'd made.

2026-04-28 21:06:21 I know, right? But look at the top 3 NO (SoftFlame is a totally-not-Scout alt) - why would 3 extremely experienced people be on NO if it's so obvious? People like to blame whales for market manipulation, and there's certainly a lot of that, but they can't control UMA. If there is a qualifying event, it will go YES even if all the whales are on NO. BTW, as you note, in the Rutte case he said various verbal-adjacent phrases in multiple interviews (including "talked", which is in the market title, and first para of the rules!), and we had post-market confirmation that it was a phone call, and it still went NO. The bar on these markets is insanely high.

2026-04-28 23:11:32 Guess this confirms Car's behind all the Dog clones.

2026-04-29 00:08:45 They do go YES, the bar is just set pretty high.

2026-04-29 02:47:41 No fucking way! Perfect.

2026-04-29 02:53:40 [link removed]

2026-04-29 22:13:05 We've all been there.

2026-04-29 22:15:15 It's solid, especially given the Ursula clarification. Much better support for this (actually 2 phone calls, one better sourced than the other, but both with multiple sources).

2026-04-29 23:18:08 Translation: I really want my $150 to turn into $57k, and anything that prevents this must be a scam.

2026-04-29 23:28:06 Could be argued it wasn't, but the editor is I believe ex-Guardian. And it's well sourced. I wouldn't want to risk $1500 in disputes, but I know Rex would be very happy if someone does. And there's the Axios double-sourced report on the earlier conversation, which is as good as reporting gets (well, on the record would be better, but this is close).

2026-04-29 23:51:55 Context makes it clear it's MBS.

2026-04-30 02:11:15 Easy! Don't want to bring out the big guns too soon.

2026-04-30 04:08:05 Quick, buy more YES!

2026-04-30 06:52:24 Imagine my surprise that she's not the most responsible mother-to-be in the world.

2026-04-30 23:49:35 After month end. If there's no evidence that wasn't available in the last review, it goes NO.

2026-04-30 23:53:32 There wasn't enough evidence for it to go YES a couple of weeks ago. Has anything changed?

2026-05-01 06:41:35 The comments is not the place to make sensible comments. Your post should have read "Oh no, what does the disputer know that I don't?!!!"

2026-05-01 06:44:41 Has anybody checked to see if they left muddy footprints on the boats?

2026-05-01 08:17:31 Yes, as long as they're read out loud to him by Trump.

2026-05-02 07:04:25 A valuable lesson for everyone (me included): if you're not willing or able to dispute, then you're at the mercy of others. Sadly this applies to other tied markets, especially thought hat are on the same page.

2026-05-02 22:20:43 This market contains a clause that other markets that went NO is similar situations did not have: "effectively removed from the specified position."

2026-05-02 23:44:50 Good luck everyone. May the best side win.

2026-05-05 02:36:13 Even the obvious needs reinforcing sometimes, and anyway this clearly isn't obvious to a number of people. I only had $300 in April, and that was double disputed, so figured a June NO holder would dispute if a 2nd proposal was made while I slept. Although it's a NO to me per the rules, I wasn't convinced that UMA wouldn't get distracted by all the reporting that CIA were present, and didn't feel like risking $750 on a proposal in that situation to protect myself.

2026-05-05 02:37:42 See Discord. Basically because June wasn't disputed it's an automatic April loss.

2026-05-05 21:11:55 Not in this case - good paint.

2026-05-07 06:33:08 "Geolocated footage published on May 3 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian vehicles in central Ryasne (southeast of Sumy City) and on a road west of the settlement, indicating that Russian forces recently advanced in these areas." They could have painted infiltration, but the presence of the vehicles presumably made ISW consider there was enough presence there for control.

2026-05-08 21:44:03 Clarified YES. Should have gone to UMA - there was a decent NO argument, given precident from previous clarification.

2026-05-08 21:44:20 Clarified YES. Should have gone to UMA - there was a decent NO argument, given precedent from previous clarification.

2026-05-09 06:17:14 Do Not Feed The Whales.

2026-05-09 06:27:33 There's a Discord channel, but this is a done deal. Not only is it clarified, but the second proposal wasn't disputed. There's a very very very very slim chance you'll get refunded, but it's effectively zero.

2026-05-09 21:41:05 google uma discord for the invite. It will change nothing though.

2026-05-10 08:05:15 Dude, you bought your shares at 0.5c, and they're now worth 2.7c, but you're hanging in there until they hit 100c. And if they don't, it's because it was a scam?

2026-05-10 08:05:50 Agreed. (It's not good enough for a court of law.)

2026-05-11 06:21:17 Yep. Before it was YES vs Early and the AP article couldn't be considered. Now it's YES vs NO and it can.

2026-05-11 09:43:36 aenews P2 Yes - I am the largest N holder. Therefore, vote P2 Yes because it would be funny if I lost OKAYWAY1 Aenews may get what he wished for: P2 👀👀

2026-05-11 11:05:56 First two could only go YES or Early. They went Early. Now the market has ended, so it's between YES and NO.

2026-05-11 12:00:40 Without wanting to encourage you to buy YES (you'll notice I haven't), effectively everyone on Discord is saying it should be YES. Are they joking? Some definitely are. Note though that it really doesn't matter what people on Discord say, it matter what UMA vote.

2026-05-12 03:21:53 You should probably reread his point and have a think about it.

2026-05-12 22:42:47 Your wish . . . will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit

2026-05-13 07:08:49 No, Trump's tweet would not be used. It might be used by the media, but that's a different matter, and up to them to then get themselves happy with it, or to not report it in their own voice if they cannot (at which point it would not be usable here). fi5h is right though - don't bet more than you can afford to lose. You can never tell exactly how these things will go.

2026-05-13 08:32:11 Sadly the market opened in 2026, otherwise this could have been amusing.

2026-05-13 10:38:32 Oh look, the rules have changed. But why did they need to change the rules if the last one resolved correctly?

2026-05-14 09:19:40 Photo caption, non-conclusive.

2026-05-14 11:50:32 Wax on, wax off.

2026-05-15 07:45:23 Less time trolling in the comments, more time engaging lawyers for the suit!

2026-05-15 09:38:35 Sure. What information are you thinking of using for YES?

2026-05-16 00:01:59 You can't blame this on UMA. The rules say live only, and Polymarket have clarified that this applies here. If UMA go against this, Polymarket will just move to dump them and implement a different resolution mechanism.

2026-05-19 23:01:19 Quickly, propose!

2026-05-20 05:12:28 God, you people are so stupid.

2026-05-20 05:16:15 BTW, time's running out, but if anyone does have a broadcast with a timestamp visible on the screen that says 11:3x (rather than 11:55), then this can be flipped. But, sadly, you do not.

2026-05-20 23:39:12 This isn't even a joke.

2026-05-21 17:03:39 This is why they introduced a whitelist - to save people from losing their bonds all the time :) .

2026-05-21 22:28:13 It's not like it's Eric, of course he's going.

2026-05-24 11:47:16 Consensus - needs more than 1.

2026-05-25 18:50:47 No pleasing some people.

2026-05-25 22:09:51 Just a love tap.

2026-05-26 21:28:21 Sympathy rising - that was a horrible decision.

2026-05-26 21:31:18 Depends. Do you think it's going up, or down?

2026-05-26 21:33:49 The accurate answer is that we do not know, because reveal has not started (hell, commit hasn't started yet). Anyone telling you that though is trying to deceive you.

2026-05-26 23:27:20 Why would anyone bet on a market with such inconsistent rule application?

2026-05-28 05:34:51 This is one thing that we know is not true.

2026-05-28 09:22:59 Not a great idea. They've already said that they don't like us - it's probably better if we don't go out of our way to annoy them, and then maybe they won't go out of their way to annoy us.

2026-06-01 10:30:55 It's not really propaganda though.

2026-06-01 10:41:26 Truth, May 30 ET

2026-06-01 13:22:39 But when did it show it?

2026-06-02 06:18:31 Depends on whether it gets disputed or not. If not, in about 1:30. If it's disputed then a couple of days.

2026-06-03 00:13:36 Seems we're at the P3 stage of bargaining.

2026-06-03 00:14:55 You must be new here?

2026-06-03 00:15:34 Be odd if they did it here having forced UMA to vote NO.

2026-06-03 00:16:46 "unless"

2026-06-03 01:24:31 How many times have people said this vs how many times have they done this ?

2026-06-03 07:05:57 The clarification was in line with what the vast majority of experienced Polymarket users thought the rules meant. So not really.

2026-06-03 07:06:47 lol. That's typically not how gambling works.

2026-06-03 07:08:02 Thonker took time off his busy schedule of stroking himself to troll you.

2026-06-03 20:11:38 Trash Obama Prez library meme. Borderline, IMO, but unchallenged.

2026-06-04 00:44:19 If it's a YES, why is the NO price so high?

2026-06-04 10:44:11 You can transfer the bond (probably need to allow for x2) to someone who is on the whitelist that you trust.

2026-06-04 23:05:31 It really wants the role in Ted 3.

2026-06-05 11:02:46 Thonker switched to NO already and we're only 1 hour into this dispute.

2026-06-05 20:41:23 Nope. IIRC it was Russian infiltration (striped) that was then cleared (per ISW) by Ukraine.

2026-06-08 00:12:04 Upset your 1c lottery tickets didn't pay out?

2026-06-08 18:55:15 A "major part" perhaps?

2026-06-09 23:15:20 How did I end up watching this?!!

2026-06-09 23:32:35 So, this was totally rigged, right?

2026-06-10 06:15:49 I mean . . .

2026-06-11 13:04:19 Oh lord.

2026-06-11 21:20:46 "if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah" You need to be quite careful with the precise meaning of words in this sort of market. He has to praise it. For example, if I say "He told me, "The sky is green,"" that doesn't mean I said the sky is green.

2026-06-14 22:24:04 Putin commands it.

2026-06-16 20:42:19 Shit.

2026-06-17 21:18:22 One of the things they really should fix with Polymarket: market creation should be in a box at the top along with something that highlights that pre-market events don't count. They missed him off the original list, so he was added after that signing.

2026-06-19 23:46:50 There were no comments because that's the best way to deal with a controversy that you have no intention of intervening in.

2026-06-21 22:32:29 Damn. GG.

2026-06-23 08:50:14 Finally, one of these is going NO!

2026-06-23 21:34:06 Watch your mouth.

2026-06-25 00:05:01 7 YES votes! It's flipping.

2026-06-25 00:06:31 Ah, sorry, 0.07 votes. Still, that's more than zero.

2026-06-27 07:58:28 Nearly there. One last push.

2026-06-30 01:23:58 YES is being propped up by Arbguy's 54k buy - what are you talking about?

2026-06-30 07:13:46 So you think that Domer buying 20k NO is an issue, but Arbguy buying 50k YES is nothing to see?

2026-06-30 08:50:25 It's true that he sold his YES, but he did very well out of it.

2026-07-01 00:46:36 You can type UMA and vote into Google to see how it's going.

2026-07-01 00:48:43 Yeah, but nothing has changed, so that'll go P1. There NO price will surge after this vote - it might drop back a bit, but nowhere near 95c.

2026-07-01 00:50:33 Whatever you have, you do not have a consensus of media. Not even in Israel, and outside of there one sub heading in Reuters that *might* be supportinve. Nothing at all in Lebanese media.

2026-07-01 01:37:43 I mean, if you want to think that, fine. Or you could notice that I made my argument and bought before UMA rocks weighed in, and held through the fall from 80c to 50c because I was sure of the strength of that argument.

2026-07-01 01:47:48 Have a read of the article. The headline writers are taking great liberties there (there's no quote or paraphrase in the article), which is why the market wants a consensus, not one or two headlines/subheads.

2026-07-01 01:49:43 Quorum reached. 40% of the way to Consensus.

2026-07-01 01:54:54 This is not, and never was, true. Current votes are 5,305k P4 (effectivley NO) and 466k YES.

2026-07-01 01:57:15 P1 NO / P2 YES / P3 50:50 (this is very very rare) / P4 Too Early. At its most basic, it means there's not enough evidence for the proposed result, but that there's still time left on the market.

2026-07-01 01:59:32 I'll assume that you're not deliberately lying - what are you looking at? If it's Discord, those are not votes. Better to think of them as cases, which the actual voters (UMA token holders) may or may not take notice of. The current votes are 5 million Too Early, 465k YES.

2026-07-01 02:09:48 They can't vote NO (well, they can, but they'll be slashed). The options at the time of proposal were YES or Early. This proposal will go early (barring some very unusual behaviour), and the next one (which will be proposed after June 30 market end) will go NO.

2026-07-01 04:31:41 What new evidence is there that was not in existence at the time of the proposal? Netanyahu? Possibly one or two of the few sub-consensus media mentions?

2026-07-01 04:55:12 All you have to do is post your proof here and even I, let alone a whale, could buy the book and dispute.

2026-07-01 05:02:30 Oh, and if you do actually have something, then because time is short you'll have to post it here or in Discord to get someone to act before the dispute period expires. But if in the future you actually have an ace, people will pay (often 30% of profits - depends how solid it is) for it.

2026-07-01 05:25:03 Post market evidence cannot be used. So the NYT could publish a piece now on the historic recognition of Israel by Lebanon, and it couldn't be used.

2026-07-01 07:44:03 I mean, the NO price is 98.4c . . .

2026-07-01 09:50:08 This was proposed on June 27. This meant that it couldn't go NO, only YES or Early. It'll get reproposed as soon as the votes are finalised for this round (14 hours from now). Some people have quite a lot of money on YES, so they might be willing to burn $750 on a dispute - if it leads to a price jump of 1c then it's worth it for the top holder. So we probably have another 48hrs+ after proposal before it settles. I don't suppose Polymarket are going to get involved now. They were aware of this market well before voting, and didn't clarify then.

2026-07-01 09:53:10 All the arguments were made prior to this vote and it led to 93% voting against YES.

2026-07-01 10:37:17 Thing is, that was known before the last vote, and that vote did not go YES. Same with the Netanyahu comments, the Reuters subheading. And you seem to be confused - Zehavi is an Israeli :) .

2026-07-01 11:10:21 I really don't know how to say it any clearer. UMA looked at that document - it was the primary evidence that YES provided. And yet the last vote did not go YES, and it wasn't even close.

2026-07-01 11:32:40 Curious as to why you neglected to do this before. As to Polymarket clarifying, I suppose anything's possible. But Bos acknowledged he was aware of this market and was apparently happy to leave it to UMA - I doubt they're going to overturn a high 90s market that's already dismissed the YES argument.

2026-07-01 12:15:33 Just the way it's set up. You need a proposal to settle. It can be disputed, it's just that (in theory - i.e. Trump speaks to Rutte) you cannot consider post market information. So Lebanon could come out and say "Yeah, we recognised Israel" and it wouldn't be admissible.

2026-07-01 13:02:40 But, and this is crucial, Lebanese officials have not.

2026-07-01 13:05:35 I'm just a helpful soul.

2026-07-01 20:57:32 Ongoing at the moment. Still 1.5m votes to reveal, which they will do by 00:00 UTC, but YES has already lost. Google UMA and vote for the link: there are 2 June votes, but they're the same (that's just an oddity of how UMA works).

2026-07-01 21:08:58 I opened this on the December version by accident and thought were were seeing just that :) .

2026-07-01 21:10:51 If only statements by Israelis were the resolution source . . .

2026-07-02 00:17:38 "lil bro" - too funny. Hey, shouldn't you be buying dollars for 3c?

2026-07-02 00:18:40 Why not post to the UMA threads - that's where the voters will see it (assuming they pay any attention to what we have to say)?

2026-07-02 00:21:09 Bought 4c shares. Would like to talk about a scam.

2026-07-02 02:31:28 Lol.

2026-07-02 09:59:15 You'll notice he didn't say there were any, but if there were . . . :)

2026-07-02 22:30:59 Formal.

2026-07-03 01:09:20 "Almost" impossible. That's what you were betting on.

2026-07-03 04:45:02 If you want to propose, someone will do it (almost certainly for free) if you put up the bond. You'll need to have $1,500 ready, because it'll likely be disputed (then you repropose, then it's disputed again). If you win, you get your $1,500 back, plus $500 from the disputer. If you lose, you lose the $1,500/

2026-07-03 09:27:13 Headchopper vs. woodchipper.

2026-07-03 09:28:03 I don't think the "just" argument would have worked, but there was an FT article that confirmed the call.

2026-07-04 11:46:05 lol

2026-07-06 13:22:35 Propose then.

2026-07-07 13:07:34 What are you going to spend you 25c winnings on?

2026-08-19 22:49:16 This is what happens when 1 out of 11 gets through. And that was nearly a month ago.

2026-08-19 23:50:34 Where? "Romanian authorities have not officially confirmed the origin of the device"

2026-08-21 09:33:03 People will say that you're a crazy conspiracy theorist. "The attack came a day after a report at Axios noted that KRG President Nechirvan Barzani was tapped as a possible back channel for diplomacy with Iran."

2026-08-21 14:30:35 Yep, agreed. As confirmed by the KRG :) .

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