Account Information
Name:
GobiDesertCanoePro
Bio:
https://x.com/GobiCanoePro
Pseudonym:
Dear-Thistle
Created:
2024-11-06 02:57:16
Last Activity:
4 weeks ago
Tier:
Tier 0
X:
@GobiCanoePro
profile-image-1292087-aa840fb0-b7bb-4064-9ea4-f67880485c63.jpg
Total Profit
$-7,916
Blockchain trace
| Address | Roles | Chains | Currencies | Total | Requests |
|---|
Stats
Portfolio value
$10,769.27
Markets traded
540
Trades
540
Largest win
$10,480.72
Profile views
752
Join date
2024-11-06 02:57:16
All-time rank
3120301
All-time PnL
$-7,915.77
All-time volume
$5,716,792.65
All-time profit
$-7,915.77
Lifetime volume
$5,716,792.65
PnL series latest
$-7,920.27
PnL series start
$-7,482.28
PnL series points
24
Weighted volume
$14.52
Geoblock allow
No
Geoblock block
No
Geoblock close-only
No
Biggest wins & losses
Biggest wins
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2025-09-05? | Yes | 71619.48 | $10,480.72 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 157999.9594 | $10,349.87 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-09-06? | Yes | 73364.34 | $3,131.48 |
Biggest losses
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 60000 | $-17,400.48 |
| Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21? | Yes | 16572.78 | $-13,629.04 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 157999.986 | $-10,590.90 |
Open positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 87250.3509 | $0.05 | $0.05 | $4,711.52 | $169.53 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 69999.9914 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $1,715.00 | $16.24 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 55700.1578 | $0.02 | $0.03 | $1,420.35 | $139.25 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 59999.9631 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $990.00 | $-330.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1000 | $0.95 | $0.95 | $955.00 | $5.00 |
Closed positions (5+)
| Market | Outcome | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2025-09-05? | Yes | 71619.48 | $10,480.72 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 157999.9594 | $10,349.87 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-09-06? | Yes | 73364.34 | $3,131.48 |
| Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-09-08? | Yes | 8861 | $3,090.14 |
| 49ers vs. Eagles | 49ers | 34776.51 | $3,058.77 |
Recent activity (5+)
| When | Type | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | USDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.01 | 0.17 | $0.00 |
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.01 | 1.35 | $0.02 |
| 4 weeks ago | MAKER_REBATE | $0.00 | 10.1762 | $10.18 | |||
| 4 weeks ago | YIELD | $0.00 | 1.0465 | $1.05 | |||
| 4 weeks ago | TRADE | SELL | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.01 | 0.87 | $0.01 |
Recent trades (540)
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | $0.86 | 620.76 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.51 | 2000 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.02 | 90097.03 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.01 | 19000 |
| 4 weeks ago | SELL | Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $0.01 | 9340.91 |
Comments
2025-08-12 12:24:05
I suspect the clarification was meant to steer this towards a YES vote, but the clarification literally says AUGUST 12th, which is one day after the AUGUST 11 date of this market closing. Based on this literal clarification the market should resolve to NO. Based on the vibe that this ill-written clarification conveys it will likely resolve to YES in the eyes of UMA voters.
2025-08-12 12:24:44
This is correct. And the clarification literally says August 12th. One day after Monday.
2025-08-12 12:25:25
A day after this market closed.
2025-08-12 12:26:20
Terrrible terrible clarification.
2025-08-13 07:57:50
Terrible Polymarket clarification and I encourage them to clear up matters. The second clarification mentions "August 12" when this market resolves "August 11."
2025-08-21 19:15:34
Doing better today.
2025-08-22 15:04:22
Here we go.
2025-08-22 15:08:00
Dooby where are you?
2025-08-22 15:20:46
Yes of course
2025-08-27 16:00:16
A GODDAM NAILBITER
2025-08-29 04:55:22
None. Looks like he has it.
2025-08-29 10:35:03
What matters to resolve the market is solely the number displayed at [link removed] as stated in the rules.
2025-08-29 10:36:03
Why are you looking at YouTube when the rules clearly state that the only number that counts is the one displayed at [link removed].
2025-08-29 10:36:55
$1.7M out of $40M to go and three days to do it. You might be deceiving yourself if you think they can't do it.
2025-08-29 10:38:00
Sweet beautiful dreams. Three days to go and $1.7M to reach the $40M. He'll do it.
2025-08-29 10:39:07
Exactly.
2025-08-31 21:43:54
1 AM CET
2025-09-03 16:49:55
I didn't hear him say Russia/Ukraine 7 times
2025-09-03 16:54:09
Possessive counts according to the rules.
2025-09-03 17:32:43
Sorry but he did not say it 7 times.
2025-09-06 10:04:05
Seems like some fairly easy calls today.
2025-09-06 20:26:29
How long do these games take to settle?
2025-09-08 08:39:51
Incredible, we get to see Gibraltar play Faroe Islands.
2025-09-09 00:13:40
Games taking as long as 4 hours to resolve it is not good.
2025-09-09 01:21:01
It seems there are two entries for the Norway - Moldova match. One of them incorrectly showing the game to be played on Monday, September 8. Hello Polymarket.
2025-09-09 01:38:04
Clarification request: Will both markets for the Norway-Moldova match be treated the same?
2025-09-10 07:14:44
True enough or something else could happen to her before September 30. Happy to take a chance for 4% yield in 20 days.
2025-09-10 07:16:29
The court made the only decision it could make, which was that Cook can't be fired until the court examines the accusations against her. Mere accusation does not constitute "just cause," especially if it took place before she was even employed at the Fed. And that is correct as people are innocent until proven guilty. As an aside, it's funny how fraudster Trump is indignant someone may have committed fraud and that might disqualify them from a position of trust.
2025-09-10 07:17:45
You're basically taking the bet that Lisa Cook won't die or voluntarily resign within 20 days.
2025-09-15 08:54:07
Dismissing a Federal Reserve governor "for cause" does not mean "at will" nor could it possibly mean for "whatever cause the President of the moment" dishes out. The question is did Cook do financial wrongdoing as alluded by Pulte or did she not. To me it does not matter whether this was before or during her current position. This is a serious charge. Latest credible reporting from Reuters however would indicate no. But how do we know? Is it fair to dismiss someone in such an important position based on allegations? She was confirmed by the U.S. Senate, which had ample time to explore her past and discuss these issues. Now these allegations surface. In fairness to Cook and to the independence and credibility of the Federal Reserve one would think the courts find it appropriate that no one be dismissed without a hearing or even an actual guilty charge in court. My guess is the original injunction by the district court will be upheld by the D.C. Court of Appeals and subsequently the Supreme Court. This is fair. Now this does not mean Cook is right, but that no one in such a position, i.e., a Fed governor, can be ousted absent the most serious "for cause" reasons. And this is yet to be determined.
2025-09-15 08:56:01
As an aside, Pulte's own parents allegedly did the same thing that Lisa Cook is accused of doing.
2025-09-15 12:37:11
Look, if dismisal "for cause" means that any allegation directed against any Federal Reserve governor is grounds for dismissal then the Federal Reserve no longer has independence from the current President in office. This has serious implications for the economic future of America. Hard to believe even the Supreme Court will side with Trump on this one. There is a reason all central banks in civilized places maintain some independence from the current administration in power.
2025-09-15 12:57:19
The issue with Lisa Cook is not really whether she is innocent or guilty but that the only reason mortgage fraud became an issue is that Trump went digging for dirt on a Fed governor so that he could replace her with a loyalist, ignoring completely the pretense of Federal Reserve independence. "Find me the man and I'll find the crime." Kinda shameful.
2025-09-15 13:04:38
And by the way the real damage here isn't rates, it's trust. Undermine the Fed's independence and you risk rattling the economy far more than a 25 BPS cut ever could.
2025-09-15 13:08:17
What would we do in this forum absent your amazing contributions?
2025-09-15 16:35:44
Where would be in this forum absent your judicial perspective and legal expertise?
2025-09-15 17:16:04
Whatever short term gain -- if any - is gained by stacking the U.S. Federal Reserve with loyalists to the current president is lost when financial markets lose faith in the U.S. central bank. It's not just about Trump. But if any future president just sacks those responsible for the Fed and places in his or her lackeys gone is the trust in U.S. monetary policy. Up will go interest rates to compensate for the perceived greater [link removed] guess is the courts will see this and respond accordingly.
2025-09-18 11:00:27
Your tone has all of a sudden changed.
2025-09-18 11:03:24
You are a capable, resourceful person enslaved to ideology. This muddies thinking and even your moral compass. Careful you don't become the best contrarian signal on Polymarket.
2025-09-21 18:01:12
Guys read the rules of this market...
2025-09-30 07:18:35
No country's warships are going to engage Israeli warships. Super bad optics.
2025-09-30 07:20:25
The short answer to your question is YES. They will be in the background -- way in the back -- and not interfere with anything.
2025-09-30 08:09:15
Money in the bag for bets on 4+ attacks.
2025-09-30 22:44:01
One of the lead boats, the "Alma," is currently 160 nautical miles from Gaza according to the Sumud Flotilla tracker. Greta Thunberg's "Madleen" boat was intercepted at about 100 nautical miles earlier this year. Assuming that is the interception point -- but with so many boats this time around the IDF might want to intercept closer to shore for better logistics -- at 4 knots the boats still have 15 hours to go. At 5 knots they still have 12 hours to go.
2025-09-30 22:47:23
As a guess, it would seem this market will resolve to a NO for September 30 as there are about 5 1/2 hours left for it. It sure looks like at the very least some of the boats are not stopping and in not stopping they will be intercepted, so by October 3 looks likely and absent some seriously weird thing by October 10 is in the bag. So, prediction: Sept 30 - NO. Oct 3 - YES. Oct 10 -YES.
2025-09-30 23:28:14
They've got 40+ boats to deal with. Logistics has to play a part.
2025-09-30 23:46:19
Like towing 40+ boats 150NM versus towing them 40NM?
2025-10-01 00:01:31
Super bad optics to be sinking civilian aid ships. Don't think it will happen.
2025-10-01 11:33:51
Has anyone considered that Israel may convince the flotilla to all head to an Israeli port such as Ashdod under safe passage, unload their cargos with the understanding it will be distributed in Gaza and avoid a raid all together?
2025-10-07 09:49:22
ChatGPT 5 puts Putin going to Asean at 50-60%, which is far different than the odds for this market. Either folks here know something AI does not, or we could see an interesting surprise.
2025-10-09 17:46:52
I know there is some last minute drama but I don't understand how there is even a market for this. Takaichi will be the next PM absent a meteor hitting her from the sky.
2025-10-13 17:41:20
Confirmed by X that it is Elizabeth Holmes. It is however managed by one of her assistants.
2025-10-13 17:42:36
What is your feeling GreekGambler? Holmes being honest when she says she will not launch token?
2025-10-25 14:59:49
Looks unlikely.
2025-10-25 15:01:23
Unless Cuomo drops out, hard to see this happening.
2025-10-28 21:32:56
Looks unlikely they will hit $1.8 billion. They just may not hit $1B. $3B and $4B even less so.
2025-10-28 21:47:35
Clearly resolving to NO and this was easy money.
2025-10-28 21:48:36
That is one heck of a Cuomo bet.
2025-10-28 21:49:45
More like high risk, high reward. Do too many bets like that and it catches up.
2025-10-28 21:52:40
No. Just because in some polls he stands with 30% of the vote does not mean he should be with 30% odds. 30% of the votes is still a 100% loss.
2025-10-28 21:53:24
Not likely.
2025-10-28 21:54:56
Not much yield at this point but easy money.
2025-10-28 21:56:02
Not much yield now but (fortunately) easy money.
2025-10-28 21:56:30
How could this even happen?
2025-10-28 21:57:39
I'm trusting she is honest when she said no token. She is angling for a pardon, doing dishonest stuff while in jail ain't going to help her.
2025-10-28 22:04:16
Easiest money ever -- though little yield -- selecting NO.
2025-10-28 22:05:14
Dear Greta won't be able to get 100 miles near Gaza before being arrested.
2025-11-02 11:22:26
For MANY months it was clear Sliwa would not drop out.
2025-11-02 11:23:52
We'll have more serious problems than this market if Iran does such a thing.
2025-11-02 19:13:39
One of the most idiotic comments on Polymarket and that's saying alot.
2025-11-02 19:14:53
Do you still think Sliwa is going to drop out?
2025-11-05 19:52:52
Our dear ETH.
2025-11-11 16:22:48
Hard to see this happening.
2025-11-12 14:06:40
Hard to see them meet anywhere in 2025
2025-11-17 12:36:45
The Chilean presidential elections have been the easiest money in all of Polymarket.
2025-11-24 20:54:35
Much as I wish yes, it's difficult to see it happening any time soon.
2025-11-27 21:56:09
If....
2025-11-27 21:56:47
To think Putin wants peace is everyone's mistake. More so that he feels like he is winning.
2025-12-01 13:11:14
Exactly.
2025-12-19 23:18:05
Crazy this is even in dispute. For further craziness Dec 19 was disputed but not Dec 20 and Dec 31. What a circus.
2025-12-19 23:18:26
Have you read the files?
2025-12-20 21:20:31
10 more days left and the bet never looked safer.
2025-12-24 15:32:59
Throughout Polymarket, comments becoming less and less useful and more silly over time.
2025-12-24 15:34:05
1B FDV should be easy money as it is less than the last VC round at 1.5B FDV.
2025-12-24 15:36:47
You are going to lose your money with this thought process.
2025-12-25 12:04:52
Echoing what destiny said.
2025-12-25 12:06:58
Is it me or do the comments become weirder and stranger throughout Polymaket as time goes on? Kooks buy "NO" on events that seem almost certain hoping to score a homerun given the odds not realizing that the odds are what they are for a reason and the kooky people just end up giving their money away to whales and those in the know.
2025-12-25 18:22:34
Who cares when it launches? This market is for the FDV 24 hours after launch WHENEVER THAT MIGHT BE. It's already trading above $3B in premarket right now.
2025-12-28 15:06:14
Through March 2026 easy money NO. After that, more of a crapshoot.
2025-12-28 15:08:17
You will be more than fine. AlexParker on the other hand...
2025-12-28 16:04:09
Er...Mmmm...Zelenskky arrived to Florida last night...meeting is scheduled about 2 hours from now. You are betting Trump and Zelenskyy do not meet?
2025-12-28 16:04:59
How can whales rig a meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy?
2025-12-28 16:07:08
Independent of a Polymarket you try to predict, count on the comments -- in any market -- being consistently kooky, misguided and downright awful.
2025-12-28 16:46:54
As usual, complete buffonery in the comments.
2025-12-28 18:34:07
No matter what the whales do or do not do, they cannot control whether Trump meets with Zelenskyy and therefore cannot control the resolution of this market.
2025-12-28 18:43:45
Sadly but as usual the comment section is kooky, trainwreckian and awful.
2025-12-28 18:52:08
UMA will vote P4 - too early. But the comment section -- as usual -- is filled with nonsense and kooks.
2026-01-03 16:59:24
Not happening.
2026-01-05 17:46:04
Wild game Egypt- Benin
2026-01-09 12:00:34
Polymarket needs to start clarifying in these types of bets what happens if the person dies.
2026-01-12 00:55:32
Not going to happen.
2026-01-12 00:56:12
Polymarket - consider banning links here.
2026-01-16 11:13:07
This does not seem likely at all.
2026-01-21 22:08:05
Read the rules. Don't think anything even close to what the rules call for will happen.
2026-01-21 22:08:39
They can already do that under the 1951 agreement with Denmark.
2026-01-24 17:14:13
Please resolve January 23.
2026-01-25 10:37:50
We are into the third day and no resolution.
2026-01-25 10:44:49
:-D
2026-01-25 10:45:31
Key aspect here is "Trump tells the NY Post..." Which means it almost certainly is not true. :)
2026-02-12 10:58:40
A vote is not needed. The market rules state a consensus of reporting can also be used. And the consensus of reporting is that Sanae has OVERWHELMINGLY won and remains as prime minister making this market an obvious YES resolution.
2026-05-05 15:53:13
Data from the specific link that Polymarket resolves to:
2026-04-27 48 ships
2026-04-28 41 ships
2026-04-29 6 ships
2026-04-30 5 ships
2026-05-01 6 ships
2026-05-02 4 ships
2026-05-03 5 ships. (just recently published)
Total ships for the period April 27- May 3 (inclusive) is 115 ships.
2026-05-05 15:55:00
115 ships is the number on PortWatch at the moment.
2026-05-05 16:27:35
Data Last Edit Date: 5/5/2026 12:45:47PM UTC = 8:45AM Eastern US time.
2026-05-05 16:28:18
I am not selling.
2026-05-05 16:29:58
Yes it could mean that.
2026-05-05 16:36:29
Yes. It could meant that.
2026-05-05 19:14:50
Link to the Portwatch quote?
2026-05-05 19:15:46
Here is the latest CSV downlaodable file from Humanitarian Data Exchange, mirror of the official Portwatch CSV. They supposedly pull directly from Portwatch -- post-validation. I don't know if that is true. The odds for 25-49 seem so strong that it looks like an insider knows the real answer. But definitely not based on analysis or AI or hunches or any public information. So who knows. But here ya go with the CSV donwloadable file. TLDR: It shows 115 ships.
[link removed]
2026-05-05 19:17:00
Portwatch mirror: [link removed]
2026-05-05 19:23:29
Where did it show 3 and 11?
2026-05-05 19:41:00
The data is simply whatever Portwatch reports. As of now we don't have any public information as Chokepoint6 and any related CSV files are empty of data. The HDX site, which maintains an official mirror, shows 115 ships for the period ending May 3. But that is not Portwatch though there is reason to believe it could be accurate.
2026-05-05 19:44:25
Anyone have a link/source that April 27 and April 28 data points are under revision?
2026-05-05 19:50:09
Thank you for your helpful, informative reply brother.
2026-05-05 20:12:01
Excellent! Many thanks for that!
2026-05-05 20:37:54
oh hey. it's over for you too bro. but gg.
2026-05-05 21:36:27
I believe those are the reviewed and revised numbers. GG
2026-05-05 22:33:10
Has the data not been revised and stabilized? April 27 at 3 and April 28 at 11?
2026-05-05 23:37:17
Portwatch posted data on its backend indicating this market would resolve to 115 ships. Portwatch warned it was investigating this data. A few hours later, it deleted the backend data and replaced it with a number totaling 40 ships. This number remains current on its backend and it's probably a matter of a few hours for the frontend to update with data. Currently the page is blank, but there is data behind it. 40 ships.
2026-05-05 23:38:44
The Polymarket clarification clearly alludes to the earlier data showing 115 ships, which Portwatch found erroneous, and corrected it. So Polymarket is going to recognize the new "good" data. 40 ships.
2026-05-06 10:42:04
The rules say this market resolves to the chart or downloadable CSV file at [link removed] But no data has been published there. In fact, the page is still returning blank data right now. However, a technically savvy user could scrape the backend of the site and see the preliminary data. This data revealed 115 ships, though Portwatch clearly said it was under review. I lost $6000 betting that it would be 115 ships. Portwatch later erased the backend data (this was not publlic) and the new data revealed 40 ships. It currently is still at 40 ships. Polymarket clarified that it will go along with whatever correct data Portwatch issues. It still has not formally issued any data but it seems clear it will be 40 ships.
2026-05-06 10:43:14
We now just wait for the frontend UI/UX to catch up with the backend data. When that will happen is anyone's guess and so the market remains open.
2026-05-06 10:45:12
This market was genuinely up in the air, and you. yourself could have been baited if it but turned a slight way. Actual data showed 115 ships, which would have blown you out of the water. This data did not survive Portwatch quality control (apparently) but it definitely was real. Now it seems the number is 40 but we still do not have official confirmation.
2026-05-06 10:49:41
Honestly, kinda shocking the inefficiency of the frontend connection/updating with the back end for such a large and important project.
2026-05-06 11:02:27
To be clear this is where the data now stands:
Apr 27 - 3 ships (this date was modified)
Apr 28 - 11 ships (this date was modified)
Apr 29 - 6 ships
Apr 30 - 5 ships
May 1 - 6 ships
May 2 - 4 ships
May 3 - 5 ships
TOTAL SHIPS for the periods apr 27-May 3 = 40 Ships.
Also to be clear, this data has not been published and we await the official update.
2026-05-06 11:18:18
True. But they are sitting on the Portwatch backend right now.
2026-05-06 14:42:51
Yep. I sure did.
2026-05-07 06:16:24
Yeah. But the Strait of Hormuz markets are new to me. And I had no idea Portwatch would modify its data and that Polymarket would go along with this (as per its clarification).
2026-05-07 15:29:28
We need a market as to when this market will resolve. :)
2026-05-28 12:05:57
Portwatch only counts five types of ships: Tankers, Dry Bulk, Ro-Ro, General Cargo and Container. And...it only counts those ships according to its own criteria, which is fairly conservative. Other ships such as fishing vessels, tugboats, barges, and so forth -- of which there are many -- are not counted. You cannot pay attention to the IRGC, Returers, Kplr, or whoever. Portwatch has its own proprietary criteria and on top of that its numbers are subject to revision. Fun.
2026-06-08 14:34:18
No chance folks
2026-08-11 06:27:47
Probably not as it would never have been claimed nor would it definitively been proved it was Russian.
2026-09-14 18:50:56
The Polyarket clarification is weird. All bills in the USA must be passed by Congress and signed by the president. To say a bill passes into law regardless of presidential signature makes no sense. The language of the market should be changed to "if the bill passes Congress" not that it becomes law.